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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along

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Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from

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Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You

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Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday

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Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global

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Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify,

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Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio,

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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. Marty Batel

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Speaker 2: has been patient and we welcome her today because with

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Speaker 2: the news flow we are so far off the core mission,

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Speaker 2: which is use of cash of this capitalistic system. She

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Speaker 2: is definitive a you see cash, Margy, what are dividends

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Speaker 2: and dividend growth going to do to the end of

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Speaker 2: the year.

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Speaker 3: Well, I think you're right, can be eachugg along, and

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Speaker 3: I think I think earnings will be at say, an

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Speaker 3: eight to ten percent annualize rate for the rest of

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Speaker 3: the year, pretty much like the first half of the end.

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Speaker 3: It's interesting companies have been raising their dividends in the

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Speaker 3: second quarter year or year dividends are up about six

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Speaker 3: and a half percent, So that's as companies have cash

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Speaker 3: that they can deploy to shareholders.

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Speaker 4: Hey, Margy, I I've been looking at the fixed income

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Speaker 4: space here and I look at then go function on

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Speaker 4: the Bloomberg terminal that gives me the Bloomberg Index browser

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Speaker 4: for all the fixed income indexes around the world. You know,

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Speaker 4: some of the best performance has been in US high

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Speaker 4: yield corporate debt. What's going on in the high yield market, Well.

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Speaker 3: The fundamentals have really never been greater. Bankruptcies are very low,

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Speaker 3: even though the is raised rates a lot, say four

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Speaker 3: percent or less than four percent. And also there's i'd

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Speaker 3: say anything, there's a actually scarce of high ye old bonds.

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Speaker 3: This year supplies up a lot. However, three quarters of

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Speaker 3: the issuance is to refinance other debt, so net net,

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Speaker 3: there really isn't that much out for people to reinvest

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Speaker 3: their coupons or put new cash in.

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Speaker 4: So, I mean, I guess the reason it surprised me

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Speaker 4: that Hyoda has done so well is because there's been

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Speaker 4: so much talk over the last year maybe two years,

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Speaker 4: have just about an depending recession. Of course, we haven't

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Speaker 4: seen it, but you know, despite that backdrop, Hi Yot

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Speaker 4: has done I guess fairly well. Are there any sectors

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Speaker 4: that are leading the way?

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Speaker 3: No. I would say high yield realistically is for somebody

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Speaker 3: who's interested in income. The year to date, the returns

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Speaker 3: in the in the high old markets, say two to

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Speaker 3: three percent of total return including what you've earned in

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Speaker 3: the in the coupon income honest compared dequities. But corporate

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Speaker 3: bonds in general, hy yield and investing gry have outperformed

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Speaker 3: treasures orient investor In all.

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Speaker 2: That, I'll margue with the men's respect, I asked you

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Speaker 2: this question. I had a mini tantrum yesterday at least

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Speaker 2: had to hold my in and medicate me and Marguis.

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Speaker 2: It was over the institutional Wall Street bond people rationalizing

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Speaker 2: away the losses our listeners and viewers have taken in

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Speaker 2: bonds over the last three years. I believe it's been

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Speaker 2: priced down yield up. How do those people recover.

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Speaker 3: Well? I think they have to change their focus. And

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Speaker 3: it's interesting. When the Fed started to raise rates, the

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Speaker 3: conventional wisdom laws go to quality. There would be treasuries,

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Speaker 3: better quality investment grade, and that was actually the wrong

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Speaker 3: sectors to be in the best sector of performance since

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Speaker 3: twenty two has been high yal bonds. So people were

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Speaker 3: just looking at the conventional world book that said go

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Speaker 3: up in quality. It was wrong, just like inequities get

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Speaker 3: defensive in value. Stocks wrong. I think they should really

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Speaker 3: look at all more money into stocks or into better

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Speaker 3: your bonds because they offer a little bit bill tore

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Speaker 3: back there. They should be safe.

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Speaker 2: Mark you one final question, can the red Sox catch

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Speaker 2: the Orioles?

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Speaker 3: That's a tough one to make, Okay, thank.

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Speaker 2: You, Marki Patel. Somewhere in the vicinity of Fenway parkin Boston,

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Speaker 2: Margie Patel, thank you so much. She is with Offspring

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Speaker 2: and you know, well, we can't do it right now,

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Speaker 2: but we'll explain the importance of Marki Patel a voice

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Speaker 2: here on clipping coupons and finding total return. It's a

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Speaker 2: really important conversation and the jewel of this. As it continues,

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Speaker 2: you will see Gene Monster and Dan I's together for

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Speaker 2: an hour, a spectacular hour on this moment we're living.

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Speaker 2: I don't bundle the stocks altogether, Sweeney does, and you

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Speaker 2: demand we start with Tesla.

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Speaker 4: Absolutely, Dan ives joints us here managing director, our senior

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Speaker 4: equity analysts at web Bush Securities, potentially the worst dress

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Speaker 4: man on Wall Street. We'll leave that up to the

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Speaker 4: iipoll there. Dan, I want to start with Tesla here,

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Speaker 4: because that stock for a while just could not find

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Speaker 4: a bit and there's a million reasons why. Whether it's fundamentals,

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Speaker 4: people just aren't gonna be buying EV's as much as

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Speaker 4: we thought, or is it just elon Musk since kind

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Speaker 4: of late April that stucks up sixty percent here only

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Speaker 4: down about seven percent year today. Give us the latest

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Speaker 4: view on Tesla.

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Speaker 5: Look, they went through a dark period. I mean we

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Speaker 5: saw demand softened in China and globally for EV's. Boom

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Speaker 5: came off the rose. They missed deliveries in one cue.

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Speaker 5: But our whole call is adult in the room must

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Speaker 5: steps up, turns us around, cuts prices. Then the mood

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Speaker 5: j overturns. And that's what we saw yesterday. I mean,

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Speaker 5: the two Q deliveries handily beat Whisper in the Street.

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Speaker 5: And Paul I believe we're going to a historical period

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Speaker 5: because Robotaxi day August eighth, we just raised price target

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Speaker 5: to three hundred. I could argue FSD and autonomous Tesla

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Speaker 5: is the most under full self driving, self driving Tesla

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Speaker 5: is the most undervalued AI play in the market.

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Speaker 2: Everything you just said is about automobiles. If we can

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Speaker 2: all agree, Toyota is the machine of the world in automobiles.

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Speaker 2: To be charitable, it's trading at ten times earnings. How

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Speaker 2: do you buy Tesla? Forget about the disasters of America

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Speaker 2: when the best run machine is running at ten times earnings. Yeah.

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Speaker 5: I think Tom brings up by probably the biggest debable

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Speaker 5: point in Tessa. I've always viewed Tesla as a disruptive

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Speaker 5: tech company and never viewed them as an auto company.

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Speaker 5: And I think more and more the software piece, especially

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Speaker 5: when it comes to FSD and autonomous, that is ultimately

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Speaker 5: what's really going to distinguish them more and more going forward.

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Speaker 5: The way that you get to evaluation trillion trillion a

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Speaker 5: half two trillion in Telsa, it's not auto. It's that

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Speaker 5: this is essentially an AI play. It's data driven, and

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Speaker 5: the sum of the parts models starts to play out.

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Speaker 5: That's why this, I believe this is a huge marks

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Speaker 5: a huge inflection point in the Tesla story. And I

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Speaker 5: think August eighth. Well, just like we talked about with

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Speaker 5: Apple going to WWC, with cooking and the AI strategy,

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Speaker 5: this will be a historical moment for the Tesla story.

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Speaker 4: So what what is that event? Explain to us what

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Speaker 4: that event.

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Speaker 5: They're gonna basically introduce their autonomous and robotaxi fleet, which

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Speaker 5: essentially is gonna lead to over the coming years. I

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Speaker 5: believe one of every five, one of every six ride

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Speaker 5: shairs at some point.

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Speaker 2: City is gonna do what you're talking about. So not

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Speaker 2: congestion New York.

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Speaker 5: Look, I think next three to five years, autonomous has coming,

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Speaker 5: because in China it's coming.

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Speaker 2: I've seen.

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Speaker 5: I mean FSD and autonomous has happening.

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Speaker 2: It's gonna work in Kansas City.

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Speaker 5: It will work in can in the city, I say.

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Speaker 5: But by this by the end of the decade, you

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Speaker 5: will have a percent five, ten, fifteen percent of what

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Speaker 5: i'll call shared rides that will not have a drive.

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Speaker 2: Okay, I'm gonna switch gears here. Coming out of the

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Speaker 2: pandemic Apple sixty to twenty, you've been dead on on this,

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Speaker 2: extrapolate out the new Apple. You go to two seventy five, Hi,

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Speaker 2: I was busting your chops. You can't come on until

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Speaker 2: you go to three hundred. I want you to extrapolate

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Speaker 2: out five years on some of these mag seven's that

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Speaker 2: you mean people hate you, Dan because you've been so

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Speaker 2: damn right about this. Extrapolate out the new trend of Apple.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, and also g and I taught in that hour

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Speaker 5: long which would be tomorrow on Bloomberg Radio. Gene I

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Speaker 5: talk about this a lot in terms of Apple. Look,

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Speaker 5: the reality is that it's all about install base. So

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Speaker 5: when we look at apple ture ecosystem, there eCos at

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Speaker 5: two point two billion iOS device is one point five

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Speaker 5: billion iPhones. Those two hundred and seventy million have an

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Speaker 5: upgrade in four plus years in terms of including Paul

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Speaker 5: who will probably online for iPhone sixteen. That's what I'm

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Speaker 5: doing now when you look at Apple and choosing Apple

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Speaker 5: Intelligence essentially the AI strategy, this is going to now

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Speaker 5: be developers building hundreds and hundreds of apps on Apple's ecosystem,

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Speaker 5: including the big players. Eventually Meta and others are going

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Speaker 5: to have to come in as well. They will own

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Speaker 5: is what we throw out. Nvidia and godfather of AI

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Speaker 5: owning enterprise AI. Okay, in the AI revolution, the consumer

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Speaker 5: AI revolution will go through Apple. And the important thing

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Speaker 5: when it comes to numbers, I could argue now that

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Speaker 5: one hundred billion of services, when you trajectory it out,

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Speaker 5: that could be an incremental forty to fifty billion of

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Speaker 5: services next five six years.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna talk serious here for this is with web

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Speaker 2: Bush and with Dan. I mean Dan, you become a

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Speaker 2: phenomenon and it's an earned excellence. This morning, Remarco Colevan Devecha,

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Speaker 2: JP Morgan has pushed aside, You've earn this excellence. So

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Speaker 2: let's talk CFA math. Right now, what's your run rate?

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Speaker 2: I'm revenue growth at Apple.

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Speaker 5: Look, my run rate is basically you're going from a

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Speaker 5: two to three percent grower two to what's gonna be

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Speaker 5: an eight to ten percent higher single digit top ud grower.

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Speaker 5: But because of the margins on services and what's happening now,

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Speaker 5: you're gonna actually gonna have Ebada cash flow growing double digits.

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Speaker 5: So when you start to trajectory that out, you're basically

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Speaker 5: gonna have what I could say from a cage versus

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Speaker 5: the best sort of earnings growth potential that you've had

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Speaker 5: in Apple going back to the last ten years, which

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Speaker 5: is in my opinion in some of the parts, and

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Speaker 5: we took about two seventy five three hundreds are bullose.

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Speaker 2: Are some of the parts on Apple right now?

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Speaker 5: Some of the parts three twenty five to three point

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Speaker 5: fifty on a bowl case. Because I believe the services business,

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Speaker 5: which I've put a value one point four to one

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Speaker 5: point five trillion, could be worth and we think about

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Speaker 5: AI coming to so you.

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Speaker 2: Have confidence their margins under the stress, Sweeney decides not

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Speaker 2: to buy the new iPhone. I can't buy six new

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Speaker 2: iPhones for the brats at home. You're saying the margins

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Speaker 2: are persistent and could even grow.

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Speaker 5: And they're growing one hundred BIPs a year just based

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Speaker 5: on them producing.

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Speaker 2: But you can't go trees to the sky. When when

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Speaker 2: does the set of margins level out?

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Speaker 5: I believe we have five to seven year run rate

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Speaker 5: on margins. But just go back to the Sweeney example.

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Speaker 5: Sweeney's playing golf down the shore. Everyone go back six

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Speaker 5: six months. Now everyone has an iPhone sixteen, iPhone fifteen.

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Speaker 5: He's like, Oh, that was how do you do that?

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Speaker 5: Oh you have an iPhone thirteen. You can't do that

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Speaker 5: in your iPhone.

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Speaker 2: That's what Damien is. I mean you're gonna put that.

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Speaker 5: That's essentially what's gonna.

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Speaker 4: Happen iPhone eleven for correction there, Dan, So are you

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Speaker 4: comfortable like I think going into that recent event from

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Speaker 4: Apple concern in the marketplace, was Apple was behind in

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Speaker 4: the A I. I don't know zeitgeist. They just weren't there.

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Speaker 4: Do you think they're there now or they will get there?

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Speaker 5: They were late, but they don't have to be first.

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Speaker 5: They have to be the best. And when you have

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Speaker 5: an install based like that, and that's what Cook and

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Speaker 5: Cooper Tin are new. They need to bring open AI in,

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Speaker 5: build their lms into iPhone sixteen. And I can tell

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Speaker 5: you from all of our Asia trips those iPhone numbers

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Speaker 5: in Asia continue to uptick. Street's still not where I

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Speaker 5: believe they're ultimately going to be. You put that together,

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Speaker 5: we are essentially going into an AI dragon super psychic.

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Speaker 2: Okay, I want to ask you travel like crazy. You're

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Speaker 2: doing all sorts of good things at web Bush great.

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Speaker 2: When you go out worldwide and talk to serious institutional

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Speaker 2: people wearing gray suits and bow ties, do they feel

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Speaker 2: they're under owned in the dan Ives world.

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Speaker 5: That's the reason people meet with me because ultimately it's

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Speaker 5: under own global.

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Speaker 2: And they're scared stiff because you got a waiting. I mean, look,

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Speaker 2: Dan off a counterrafunder others, I guess, particularly with Berkshire Hathaway.

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Speaker 2: They own some of these things like Apple, but that's

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Speaker 2: just a few people.

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Speaker 5: Right, well exactly, and that's why it's under owned institutionally,

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Speaker 5: i'd say retail to some extent, it has almost been

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Speaker 5: ahead intutions when it comes to the revolution. But in

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Speaker 5: my opinion, the AI party, it's nine pm and this

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Speaker 5: party goes to four am. Now there are gonna be

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Speaker 5: others like Amazon's like, let me on the dance floor

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Speaker 5: because I want to be part of the AI. Look

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Speaker 5: what's happened to the evaluation Amazon? Because aws, that's gonna

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Speaker 5: be key piece demonization. That's why I believe a year

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Speaker 5: from now we're looking at three four trillion dollars mark

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Speaker 5: aps in Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft first one to get their app.

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Speaker 2: Can you be sure when you leave that Michael Barr

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Speaker 2: doesn't see you, because I don't want Michael Barr getting

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Speaker 2: any ideas. I mean those of you on Bloomberg Eleven's three.

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Speaker 2: Oh thank god you're not on YouTube. Yes exactly, Dan,

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Speaker 2: I congratulations from the securities analysis standpoint of getting this right.

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Speaker 2: Dan Eyves Gene Monster an entire hour tonight six pm

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Speaker 2: and tomorrow five am, ten am, three pm, and we're

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Speaker 2: trying to figure out what to do with it on

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Speaker 2: a podcast for any of you studying for the CFA worldwide,

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Speaker 2: trying to understand what Michael Mobison talks about of capital

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Speaker 2: allocation and capital efficiency. This is the hour of the

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Speaker 2: summer Bloomberg Daybreak, Dan ives gene Monster. Look for that.

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Speaker 2: An important conversation away from Paris, away from London in Kiev,

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Speaker 2: our Anne Marie Horden with mister Zelenski.

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Speaker 6: The young was sure the winner might be might be

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Speaker 6: Trump November and he knows how to end the war.

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Speaker 6: He has a plan. Yeah, your president me as the

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Speaker 6: president of the country at war, not a theoretical person

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Speaker 6: that a real life person. I would like to be prepared. Well,

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Speaker 6: we are forty millions, we're a big country, and we

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Speaker 6: really depend on the aid from the world, and we

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Speaker 6: depend on the aid and the position and the stans

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Speaker 6: of the US. So I would like to understand what

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Speaker 6: would it mean to finish war fast tomorrow? Do we

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Speaker 6: want the war to be over tomorrow?

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Speaker 2: We didn't.

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Speaker 6: The war didn't to start. It was Putting who started it.

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Speaker 6: But I hope you agree that it could be fair.

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Speaker 6: If Trump knows how to end this war, he should

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Speaker 6: tell us today, because if there are risks to Ukraine's independence,

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Speaker 6: if there are risks that we will lose the statehood,

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Speaker 6: we want to be prepared for this. We want to

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Speaker 6: understand whether in November we will have the powerful support

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Speaker 6: of the Ess or will be all alone.

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Speaker 2: Mister Zelensky, and through the months, in the quarters of

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Speaker 2: the years, we've seen a different Zelensky. It seems as

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Speaker 2: he adapts to a war in conversation in Kiev where

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Speaker 2: their an re hoard and we are thrilled to have

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Speaker 2: Amory with us, and particularly the symbolism of being in Kiev.

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Speaker 2: As we go to the fourth of July, there's quite

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Speaker 2: a delay, So we're going to keep these very discreet

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Speaker 2: questions and answers to Amory. Amory, thank you for being

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Speaker 2: with us, thank you for your reporting from Kiev. How

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Speaker 2: is this Zelensky different than the Zolensky of February of

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Speaker 2: a few years ago.

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Speaker 1: This is a heartened man who was once a comedian,

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Speaker 1: who now is still a war time president who's dealing

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Speaker 1: with not just continuing jetting around the world to make

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Speaker 1: sure that he has allies and partners supporting him, which

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Speaker 1: you just heard there. You know, there's angst potentially that

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Speaker 1: it's going to be a Donald Trump two point zero.

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Speaker 1: And how does he prepare to that. He told me

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Speaker 1: he's potentially ready to sit down with him. If Trump

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Speaker 1: has a plan, like he insinuated he did before during

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Speaker 1: the debate, he wants to see it now because he

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Speaker 1: says the consequences are just existential for Ukraine.

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Speaker 6: And this is an.

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Speaker 1: Individual, of course, who's still dealing with issues at home.

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Speaker 1: They just change the mobilization laws, so if you're younger,

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Speaker 1: there's more potential that you are going to be drafted.

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Speaker 1: They have a lot of weapons coming into the country,

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Speaker 1: although he made the point these weapons have been delayed.

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Speaker 1: That is why many in the military analysts would use

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Speaker 1: the word deadlock or stalemate. He does not like that word.

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Speaker 1: But they also need to make sure they have the

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Speaker 1: men to use those weapons. So he has a lot

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Speaker 1: of challenging times ahead of him at home. And while

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Speaker 1: all this is going on, there's seismic shifts in politics

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Speaker 1: in Europe and in the United States, Emory.

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Speaker 2: You over the years have basically been our correspondent on corruption,

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Speaker 2: whether it's Russia or across at Europe and of course

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Speaker 2: Ukraine as well. The latest news is NATO is more

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Speaker 2: than lukewarm about the continued corruption in Ukraine. From your

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Speaker 2: perspective of years, what is the level of corruption in

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Speaker 2: Ukraine and what can Zelensky do about it?

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Speaker 1: Well, Zelensky has been working towards this, and you understand

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Speaker 1: this as a condition and has been a condition for

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Speaker 1: a lot of items that the US went aheaded with.

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Speaker 1: I'm thinking the Bilateral Security Agreement. And also right now

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Speaker 1: they are discussing part of that sixty one billion dollars

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Speaker 1: more than seven billion is alone tied to treasury, and

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Speaker 1: there are discussions right now about what corruption reforms, what

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Speaker 1: changes in what potential corruption there's going on in the

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Speaker 1: country that they can make to unlock that seven billion dollars.

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Speaker 1: So this has not gone unnoticed. A lot of issues

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Speaker 1: tend to happen in customs with the customs department. But

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Speaker 1: if you talk to Ukrainians, one of the issues is

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Speaker 1: is they are under martial law right now. Their only

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Speaker 1: goal is to survive and defeat Puchin. Many would say,

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Speaker 1: let's deal with reforms later, but it's a critical issue.

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Speaker 1: Partners bring it up, and it's hard to honestly think

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Speaker 1: that there's no corruption in the government when they're head

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Speaker 1: of the anti corruption Bureau was actually allegedly in the

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Speaker 1: Ukrainian press leaking to individuals that were corrupt and that

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Speaker 1: they were going to bring before the bureau. So this

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Speaker 1: is an issue. But I would say right now under

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Speaker 1: martial law, Zelenski understands it. They want to reform, but

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Speaker 1: he has to do two things at once. Reform at

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Speaker 1: the same time try to win a war.

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Speaker 4: Anne Marie and your discussions with President Zelensky, did he

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Speaker 4: offer any roadmap for any possible resolution to this war

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Speaker 4: in any reasonable timeframe?

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Speaker 1: Well, he's saying is that everyone, including Victor Orbon who

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Speaker 1: was here yesterday, who's been a hurdle for Zelenski in

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Speaker 1: the European Union, he came here his first time he's

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Speaker 1: been to Ukraine since the outbreak of the war. He

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Speaker 1: now has a little bit more power because he's holding

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Speaker 1: the rotating EU presidency. He called for a ceasefire and

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Speaker 1: Zlensky says, yes, but a ceasefire, what does that entail

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Speaker 1: what is the future steps, because what they do not

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Speaker 1: want to do is seed any territory to Russia. When

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Speaker 1: I asked more about who could potentially be a mediator

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Speaker 1: in this, you know it's been floated. You can have

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Speaker 1: a Mohammad ben Zaiat or Mohammad bin Salomon, someone in

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Speaker 1: the Gulf that has been in the past, the links

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Speaker 1: between say prisoner swaps between the United States and Russia.

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Speaker 1: A third party that has credibility in both Zelenski and

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Speaker 1: Putin's eyes. But Zelenski said for real war to end

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Speaker 1: and credibility for a third party, it needs to be

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Speaker 1: the United States in China putting their differences aside and

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Speaker 1: hashing this out.

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Speaker 2: Amri Harden, thank you so much for your work in

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Speaker 2: Kiev today. We hope Ariharden, by the time you get back,

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Speaker 2: the Yankees maybe can win two in a row, just possibly,

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Speaker 2: will I see on the memory Hoarden in conversation with

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Speaker 2: mister Selensky important given the politics in New York, we

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Speaker 2: got a huge newspaper segment. Let's get right to it. Yeah, Lisa,

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Speaker 2: what do you have?

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Speaker 7: Well, we were just talking about New Jersey, so let's

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Speaker 7: continue the conversation. Global warming showing effects. But a new

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Speaker 7: study says New Jersey heating up faster than any other

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Speaker 7: state in the north East. Yes, okay, so this is

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Speaker 7: a study from Climate Central. They say average annual temperatures

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Speaker 7: nationwide increase by about two and a half degrees since

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Speaker 7: nineteen seventy, but annual temperatures in New Jersey increased by

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Speaker 7: about three and a half degree. So it makes us

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Speaker 7: the third fastest warming state in the country. It's just

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Speaker 7: behind Delaware and Alaska. Alaska came in.

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Speaker 5: A really one.

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Speaker 4: Okay, Yeah, that all I know.

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Speaker 2: Is you is because it's as falded from sea.

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Speaker 4: I think, sobody to whenever in the metro New York

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Speaker 4: City area, folks, whenever we have these heat waves, the

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Speaker 4: hottest temperature in the metro New York area is always

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Speaker 4: New And I don't know why it is, but it's.

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Speaker 7: That whole heat island, I guess. I mean it's a

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Speaker 7: different things of warming, ocean over development, because New you're

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Speaker 7: very like overdeveloped. But you're saying that the water temperatures are.

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Speaker 4: Cold, cold, cold, and.

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Speaker 2: June report yet I haven't seen a summary of June

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Speaker 2: in our area or frankly any other area.

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Speaker 7: No, Okay, we've heard about students using AI for their

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Speaker 7: papers for different things in schools.

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Speaker 2: I would never have done that. This portion of Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: surveillance brought to you by cliff Notes.

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Speaker 7: Okay, but now the teachers are using AI to grade

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Speaker 7: the students papers, but not everyone's happy about it. Happy

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Speaker 7: about it. And here's the problem. So the bots generate

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Speaker 7: this numeric score and they offer up some critiques or

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Speaker 7: to the teacher whether they want to use these critiques

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Speaker 7: or develop their own kind of just use that as

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Speaker 7: a guide. They always tell the parents and students when

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Speaker 7: they use this program. But the problem is is they're

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Speaker 7: saying it's you know, it's making their lives easier, it's

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Speaker 7: helping the students be better writers. But then you have

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Speaker 7: the critics who say, hey, you know what, I can't

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Speaker 7: trust this new technology. You know, my kids are dependent

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Speaker 7: on these grades to get, you know, go to good college.

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Speaker 7: So it's this back and forth and this battle over

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Speaker 7: whether the teachers should use AI to grade papers or should.

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Speaker 4: We Well, here's interesting from the story. Used to properly.

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Speaker 4: Teachers say AI helpers can provide consistency and remove bias

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Speaker 4: from assessments of students' work.

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Speaker 2: Although not every i'mid a world famous prep school sitting

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Speaker 2: in the office with the head of the mathematics department,

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Speaker 2: who's acclaimed with an education, and she was in tears

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Speaker 2: because they kept giving out b's and c's and all

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Speaker 2: the others are giving out great inflation and all that.

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Speaker 2: And it demonstrably affected where those kids went to school

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Speaker 2: because they were like old school, like Paul and I

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Speaker 2: grew up with. You got a quality. See I full disclosure, folks.

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Speaker 2: It was a miracle I got through school. I mean

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Speaker 2: I was. We can't say it on radio, but there

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Speaker 2: I was. I'm sorry. I have real trouble with this.

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00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 2: You know. I just go to the cliff Notes. I

435
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:27,160
Speaker 2: mean I lived off from.

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00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:28,920
Speaker 7: My I did the Yellow and Black Books.

437
00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:32,159
Speaker 5: Yes, oh you know it is for Shakespeare.

438
00:24:33,040 --> 00:24:35,520
Speaker 4: For Shakespeare, because I couldn't read all the notes at

439
00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:36,040
Speaker 4: the bottom.

440
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 2: I mean, oh, come on, William Faulkner, James Joyce, James

441
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:43,560
Speaker 2: Joyce actually read the whole cliff Notes.

442
00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:44,000
Speaker 5: Next.

443
00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:48,400
Speaker 7: Okay, home affordability in the US sinking to the lowest

444
00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:51,919
Speaker 7: points since two thousand and seven. Okay, this is from Adam.

445
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:55,040
Speaker 7: The cost of a typical home. You think mortgage insurance

446
00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:58,679
Speaker 7: taxes now consume just over thirty five percent of the

447
00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:01,840
Speaker 7: average wage. Different things. You have growth and expenses, higher

448
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:05,080
Speaker 7: mortgage rates, they've now paced those income gains. So they're

449
00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:07,399
Speaker 7: saying the shortage of listings push those home prices to

450
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:10,080
Speaker 7: a medium about three hundred and sixty thousand. So you're

451
00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:13,080
Speaker 7: talking about home affordability and how it's so much more

452
00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:15,919
Speaker 7: difficult now. The biggest declines in affordability were in the

453
00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:19,280
Speaker 7: West and in the Northeast, so places like California. Then

454
00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:23,000
Speaker 7: you have in New York, Brooklyn, Nassau County, So those

455
00:25:23,000 --> 00:25:23,640
Speaker 7: are some of the.

456
00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:26,560
Speaker 2: Markets we're living with this. I mean, is there any

457
00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:27,840
Speaker 2: theory that this goes away?

458
00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:31,480
Speaker 4: I think industrates just have to come down. And so

459
00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:33,399
Speaker 4: the question I have for the real estate people is

460
00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:35,720
Speaker 4: what's the rate, the interest rate, the mortgage rate, the

461
00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:39,080
Speaker 4: mortgage rate that I'll start clearing the market that sellar rate.

462
00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:43,120
Speaker 4: Is it six percent? Is it five percent? Where sellers

463
00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:45,040
Speaker 4: will say, Okay, I'll put my house in a market

464
00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:47,480
Speaker 4: because I'm willing to take a new mortgage for new

465
00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:49,600
Speaker 4: property and start get this whole thing going.

466
00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:51,440
Speaker 2: So I don't know next yeah.

467
00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:53,080
Speaker 7: And then you have the mortgage banker associated and seven

468
00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:56,000
Speaker 7: point zero three. That's the thirty years.

469
00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 4: Okay, that's still doing.

470
00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:01,640
Speaker 7: Still, you're still doing all right there. Okay, we talked

471
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:06,120
Speaker 7: about this yesterday Kevin Costner's movie Horizon and how much

472
00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:08,200
Speaker 7: money he needs to gain from this in order to

473
00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:11,200
Speaker 7: get his money back. Okay, so this is from Business Insider.

474
00:26:11,880 --> 00:26:15,040
Speaker 7: It only pulled in eleven million. It's opening weekend, so

475
00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:18,520
Speaker 7: he was really behind this. He mortgages property in Santa Barbara,

476
00:26:18,600 --> 00:26:22,240
Speaker 7: invested thirty eight million of his own money. Other undisclosed

477
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:25,719
Speaker 7: financial backers also covering the marketing Variety says that estimate's

478
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:28,399
Speaker 7: about thirty million. So what they did is they crunched

479
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:31,280
Speaker 7: the numbers and they said, for every ten million Horizon

480
00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:34,240
Speaker 7: makes at the box office, Coster and investors see about

481
00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:37,480
Speaker 7: four point six million back. Because Warner Brothers is only

482
00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:40,600
Speaker 7: taking about eight percent of that, that means he has

483
00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:43,200
Speaker 7: to recoup that thirty million that he invested in marketing.

484
00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:46,480
Speaker 7: It has to make more than sixty five million domestically.

485
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:49,000
Speaker 7: But he's only made eleven so he's kind of good.

486
00:26:49,000 --> 00:26:52,520
Speaker 4: But here's the thing. This is the underbelly of theatrical

487
00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:55,639
Speaker 4: releases pre sales around the globe. So what you do

488
00:26:55,680 --> 00:26:58,320
Speaker 4: is you go to can France, which Tom knows exclusively.

489
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:01,000
Speaker 4: He gets his rose, but people are actually working there,

490
00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:02,960
Speaker 4: and Cost goes there and he sells the rights to

491
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:06,840
Speaker 4: every single country region around the world, and we don't

492
00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:09,520
Speaker 4: know what that number was, so that number all goes

493
00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:13,320
Speaker 4: into his pocket and his investors pockets that might might

494
00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:14,600
Speaker 4: make or if he goes.

495
00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:16,280
Speaker 7: To streaming too, that could know if it gets a

496
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:16,680
Speaker 7: good stream.

497
00:27:16,720 --> 00:27:18,320
Speaker 2: I got to move on another thing. But is this

498
00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:21,240
Speaker 2: thing I had good reviews, I mean the critics. I

499
00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:22,000
Speaker 2: think it's okay.

500
00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:23,400
Speaker 4: I think it's three.

501
00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:26,640
Speaker 2: Hours Dancing with the Wolves redo you know, I.

502
00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:28,680
Speaker 4: Mean maybe, But I'm like a good Western. We don't

503
00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:31,760
Speaker 4: get good westerns very often. I'm going to give this

504
00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:33,560
Speaker 4: one is American Westerns.

505
00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 2: We got history.

506
00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:36,200
Speaker 4: They've done pretty well.

507
00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:39,320
Speaker 2: We got a huge response yesterday to the fact Lisa

508
00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:40,480
Speaker 2: has three freezers.

509
00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:44,119
Speaker 8: I know, really, I looked at what the electricity bill is,

510
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:49,560
Speaker 8: so you're popping two hundred ten dollars a year just

511
00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:52,160
Speaker 8: for the base electricity.

512
00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:54,320
Speaker 7: I just blame it on the kids for leaving the

513
00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:54,760
Speaker 7: lights on.

514
00:27:56,080 --> 00:27:59,920
Speaker 2: Said, do you have like spanking new energy efficient freezer

515
00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:03,960
Speaker 2: or these from just these frigidaires from the fifties.

516
00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:06,840
Speaker 7: They're not, and it's probably I wonder if i'd make

517
00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:08,360
Speaker 7: up for the difference of the money that I save

518
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:08,879
Speaker 7: at COSPO.

519
00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:12,280
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best

520
00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:17,080
Speaker 2: in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also

521
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:21,199
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522
00:28:21,320 --> 00:28:25,360
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523
00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:28,639
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524
00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:32,440
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525
00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:36,320
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526
00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:39,720
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