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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read enough? They're for running a game.

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Speaker 2: So smoothe so sweet sidsisting just glorious extatution.

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Speaker 3: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 3: thousand percent.

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Speaker 1: Of the time.

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Speaker 4: How shot with that? Shop with mind, buddy, and that's

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Speaker 4: why you see your as beautiful tiers. Look at his

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Speaker 4: movements the most dangerous.

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Speaker 3: Amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picts them.

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Speaker 5: Up. I'm trying.

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Speaker 4: The one.

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Speaker 2: It's left to one, the wide eyed drill pibus.

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Speaker 4: How old earth that happens?

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Speaker 5: Hello, everyone, Welcome back to Wonderful, the soccer betting podcast

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Speaker 5: from the Action Network. My name is Michael E. Buff

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Speaker 5: Joining me as always are my co hosts and Kylie Weeks,

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Speaker 5: BJ Cunningham and Anthony Daubundo. But before I bring in

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Speaker 5: those two fine gentlemen, a reminder that wonder Goal is

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Speaker 5: brought to you by Bet three six five, the world's

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Speaker 5: favorite sportsbook brand. Sign up with promo code action to

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Speaker 5: get BET three six fives exclusive sign up offer in

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Speaker 5: New Jersey and Colorado. Bet one dollar on any game,

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Speaker 5: get two hundred free. All right, BJ, Anthony. This is

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Speaker 5: a midweek Premier League Little Syria as well. Preview. We

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Speaker 5: already talked over the weekend on our Friday episode or

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Speaker 5: Thursday episode about Liverpool and Brentford on Monday. Here's the

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Speaker 5: TLDR version. We all like Brentford to win that game

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Speaker 5: on Monday, or a bet at least on them to

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Speaker 5: win or cover play it as you may. For this episode,

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Speaker 5: we'll be talking about the other nine games. They start

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Speaker 5: on Tuesday. There's a few on Tuesday, few on Wednesday,

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Speaker 5: and one on Thursday. And that's the headliner and it

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Speaker 5: is where we will start. Stanford Bridge. Chelsea's four to

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Speaker 5: one home under against man City coming off a hard

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Speaker 5: fought effort against the mighty mighty Toppies of Everdon Cities

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Speaker 5: might as one fifty. The draw is three to one.

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Speaker 5: Chelsea's coming off a draw against notting A Forest. Maybe

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Speaker 5: Anthony jumped the gun when he said that Chelsea and

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Speaker 5: the Potter Revolution it started when they when they pasted Bourne.

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Speaker 5: With Anthony, we told you to calm down.

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Speaker 4: It didn't start yet. You were you were, you were

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Speaker 4: all tame.

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Speaker 5: Let's start with you with though Anthony, this looks a little,

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Speaker 5: it looks tempting on Chelsea at home uh against the

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Speaker 5: City team that was good against Everden, but just once,

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Speaker 5: once they scored, they just seemed to kind of decided

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Speaker 5: that that was going to be enough. Like they almost

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Speaker 5: went into arrogance mode against Everton and they paid for

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Speaker 5: it dearly. It's a must win game for City now,

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Speaker 5: as they all are pretty much. So how are you

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Speaker 5: play you this one?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm playing the under two and a half. It's

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Speaker 3: another hold your nose, another under in this damn league

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Speaker 3: where no game ever seems to go under. We did

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Speaker 3: have a good amount in this match week with some

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Speaker 3: unders finally coming back, and I think you're going to

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Speaker 3: see more of those as we get into January here.

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Speaker 3: But from a stylistic point of view, I think the

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Speaker 3: biggest thing in this matchup is that the Chelsea attack continues.

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Speaker 4: To be mediocre.

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Speaker 3: And I think we bj made the first point like

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Speaker 3: we can't over react to a game against Bourne myth

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Speaker 3: at home, and I thought I agreed, Maybe I didn't

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Speaker 3: have to go back and think about it, But if

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Speaker 3: you go to the nodding Forest match. I tweeted a

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Speaker 3: screenshot about twenty minutes into the second half of today's

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Speaker 3: game against Forest, and they had been getting They were

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Speaker 3: outshot eight to zero in the first twenty minutes of

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Speaker 3: the half. They finished the game with seven total shots

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Speaker 3: against Nottingham Forest. The goal they scored came off of

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Speaker 3: a pretty fluky deflection off the crossbar down right to

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Speaker 3: Rahiem Sterling, which you know, was very fortunate. Nothing Chelsea

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Speaker 3: necessarily did, just a good bounce and they still created

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Speaker 3: less than one expected goal. And Forrest is a better

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Speaker 3: team at home, but it's still one of the worst

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Speaker 3: defenses in the prem and you expect Chelsea to have

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Speaker 3: some type of response to that disappointing fixture.

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Speaker 4: But this attack just isn't producing.

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Speaker 3: I mean, they're eighth and passes into the penalty area,

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Speaker 3: so it's not even like they're getting into the penalty area.

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Speaker 4: Necessarily at an elite level.

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Speaker 3: And then attacks are kind of breaking down because then

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Speaker 3: you could point to this, you know, the lack of

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Speaker 3: a true striker, Sterling being in and out of form,

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Speaker 3: some of the injuries they've dealt with.

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Speaker 4: But they're twelfth in xt P ninety. I mean, they're

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Speaker 4: just an average attack and.

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Speaker 3: There's still a pretty good defense contrary to what I

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Speaker 3: am more concerned with Chelsea's attack than I am with

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Speaker 3: their defense when you look at their numbers Inderlyne, because

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Speaker 3: they knowine defensive numbers aren't that great either. But I'm

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Speaker 3: more likely to buy into those because the other numbers

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Speaker 3: like passes into the penalty allowed and touches in the

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Speaker 3: box allowed are much lower. So I think Chelsea's defense

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Speaker 3: will hold and make it a difficult challenge for City.

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Speaker 3: They match up decently well here to make this a

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Speaker 3: bit of a stalemate, but I really don't see Chelsea

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Speaker 3: penetrating or getting good looks on this City defense, which yes,

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Speaker 3: conceded to Everton, but it was two shots less than

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Speaker 3: zero point one five expected goals when that goal went in,

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Speaker 3: and the difference with him without Reeche James I think

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Speaker 3: is pretty significant. I mean, we saw Chelsea played great

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Speaker 3: with Reeche James. Getting up and down the right wing

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Speaker 3: is the main ball progression engine, the extra man in

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Speaker 3: the box, his creativity, his ability to even get shots

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Speaker 3: helps this Chelsea attack.

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Speaker 4: I don't love XG on off splits because.

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Speaker 3: I think they can be really noisy and it's hard

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Speaker 3: to really measure like one player's impact. But did Chelsea

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Speaker 3: have been two tenths of a goal two and a

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Speaker 3: half tents of a goal better with Reeche James on

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Speaker 3: the pitch this season and they've been without him. I

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Speaker 3: think it's pretty significant, and I think that's definitely a

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Speaker 3: concern for the Blues that you know, one player is

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Speaker 3: so irreplaceable to their team.

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Speaker 4: So it's a hold your nose under two and a

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Speaker 4: half at plus money. I like it.

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Speaker 3: I think this is like a one to nil two

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Speaker 3: nil type of City win. I do think they'll win,

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Speaker 3: but I'm not my the juice or the goal because

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Speaker 3: I do think that the one the.

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Speaker 4: City attack is overvalued.

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Speaker 3: I mean, we talked about this last week team total

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Speaker 3: over two and a half against Everton, which I wanted

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Speaker 3: to bet was like minus one sixty, So like the

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Speaker 3: market has no is clearly in love with Early Holland

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Speaker 3: for good reason, but it's a little too much love.

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Speaker 4: So I do think the total has a bit inflated.

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Speaker 5: It does seem like a weird spot too for Chelsea.

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Speaker 5: They've just had so much turmoil over the past two

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Speaker 5: seasons now or two plus seasons. It's you just don't know,

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Speaker 5: like I have no idea how where that. Like, the

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Speaker 5: levels for this team are so they're hard to get behind.

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Speaker 5: It is a tempting number. You know, I often say

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Speaker 5: a lot of times when we're dealing with teams like

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Speaker 5: like this that if you're getting a four plus four

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Speaker 5: hundred on a team with this kind of talent at home,

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Speaker 5: no matter who they're playing, it's it's definitely at least

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Speaker 5: worth a look. We'll see right now. It's a pass

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Speaker 5: for me. BJ anything to add here Thursday three pm

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Speaker 5: Chelsea in City, Yeah, it's a.

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Speaker 1: Pass for me.

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Speaker 2: If I had to play anything, I might I might

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Speaker 2: go for a City minus four and a half and

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Speaker 2: take a good price on it, because again, like you know,

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Speaker 2: like I said, it remains true what I've said on

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Speaker 2: the last few podcasts is that Chelsea just they just

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Speaker 2: cannot create high quality chances in the final third. Now

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Speaker 2: you saw a little bit against Nottingham Forest they did

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Speaker 2: take three shots inside the six yard box. They'd before

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Speaker 2: the matches against Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest they had taken

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Speaker 2: his total of five shots inside the six yard box

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Speaker 2: that was the lowest in the Premier League. So I

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Speaker 2: think what you're seeing is what Potter did a lot

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Speaker 2: at Brighton was they wanted to create the biggest chance

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Speaker 2: possible and not just take the first shot available. So

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Speaker 2: I think you're starting to see that a little bit more.

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Speaker 2: But I mean, let's just be honest, Kai Hevertz is

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Speaker 2: not an out and out striker, so Chelsea doesn't really

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Speaker 2: have that. The midfield of Virginio and kobacis just really

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Speaker 2: is probably gonna get a run over here against City.

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Speaker 2: And if you go back, I mean they lost the

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Speaker 2: City to nothing in the UFL Cup and then even

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Speaker 2: the match before that, they were at home with Arsenal

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Speaker 2: coming to town and Arsenal just completely paced them. It

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Speaker 2: was two point one to point three unexpected goals. Chelsea

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Speaker 2: took five shots like it was. If we have a

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Speaker 2: repeat of that, then City is going to absolutely run

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Speaker 2: them over. So if I had to play anything, I'd

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Speaker 2: play City on an alt line probably minus one and

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Speaker 2: a half at a decent plus number. But yeah, we

174
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Speaker 2: are getting a little too steep here with City, you know,

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Speaker 2: sitting around minus one sixty, so it's a pass for me.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it feels like we're kind of at the I mean,

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Speaker 3: the market still has a lot of respect for this

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Speaker 3: Chelsea team, so I don't want to say we're at

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Speaker 3: the bottom of the market.

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Speaker 4: On Chelsea because I really don't think that's the case.

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Speaker 3: I mean, they took money against Forest and closed to

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Speaker 3: minus one favorite on the road, and that's a lot

183
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Speaker 3: of market respect and a sign that they still think

184
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Speaker 3: they're a top five to sixteam. They haven't done anything

185
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Speaker 3: to prove that. And say, I want to guess who

186
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Speaker 3: the leading shots per ninety player is for Chelsea this season?

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Speaker 4: Small sample, but is it is zech Pool of sick

188
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Speaker 4: Pool is sick two point.

189
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Speaker 3: Three shots per ninety, so Harch is a little bit

190
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Speaker 3: below that. But I mean, you just can't be a

191
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Speaker 3: top five teams six six team in this league if

192
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Speaker 3: your main striker is getting less than two and the

193
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Speaker 3: third shots per ninety. It's just not a sustainable way.

194
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Speaker 3: And you mentioned like the goals the shots from inside

195
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Speaker 3: the six, I mean you have to again consider the opponent.

196
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Speaker 3: How many looks are they getting against City from there

197
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Speaker 3: unless there's like a fluke or a deflection.

198
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Speaker 5: You could make the argument the Arsenal minus Bunch twenty

199
00:09:24,040 --> 00:09:27,360
Speaker 5: five hosting Newcastle plus three thirty three the draw is

200
00:09:27,440 --> 00:09:30,160
Speaker 5: plus two eighty. Here these odds, obviously from Bett three

201
00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:34,480
Speaker 5: sixty five are sponsors that this match is actually the headliner,

202
00:09:34,559 --> 00:09:37,679
Speaker 5: but I agree, we'll stick with We'll stick with Chelsea

203
00:09:37,760 --> 00:09:40,640
Speaker 5: and City. You know, that's that was what a BJ

204
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Speaker 5: put at the top of the rundown for some reason.

205
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Speaker 2: So he thought it was the I didn't make the rundown. Okay,

206
00:09:45,080 --> 00:09:48,000
Speaker 2: that's made the rundown and he made the rundown. Okay,

207
00:09:48,040 --> 00:09:49,959
Speaker 2: I'm I'm wiping my hands clean of that.

208
00:09:50,760 --> 00:09:52,880
Speaker 5: And all right, so let's talk about this one.

209
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Speaker 4: We had to get warmed up.

210
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Speaker 1: Yeah, yes, we had to get warmed up.

211
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Speaker 5: There will be some disagreement here actually, so BJ, I'll

212
00:09:58,120 --> 00:10:00,480
Speaker 5: just shoot it right to you because I find it.

213
00:10:00,800 --> 00:10:04,120
Speaker 5: You know, I thought for sure when I when I

214
00:10:04,160 --> 00:10:06,240
Speaker 5: first started to look at the lines pop up for

215
00:10:06,320 --> 00:10:10,000
Speaker 5: this week as they got BJ is gonna be running

216
00:10:10,120 --> 00:10:12,040
Speaker 5: far away from Arsenal at this price.

217
00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:15,040
Speaker 4: No, he can't wait, Oh.

218
00:10:15,160 --> 00:10:19,040
Speaker 1: God, I can't wait. This is cheap, Like, this is

219
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Speaker 1: so cheap? Are you kidding me?

220
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Speaker 2: Like only minus one twenty five, Arsenal is a perfect

221
00:10:24,720 --> 00:10:27,000
Speaker 2: seven to oho to zero at home plus eleven point

222
00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:30,040
Speaker 2: six expected golden Fernial only conceded five point nine expected

223
00:10:30,080 --> 00:10:33,840
Speaker 2: goals in those seven matches. Newcastle is a big time

224
00:10:33,960 --> 00:10:36,439
Speaker 2: home road split team. They're a little over plus eleven

225
00:10:36,480 --> 00:10:39,120
Speaker 2: expected Golden fernial at home. Away from home, they're only

226
00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:42,960
Speaker 2: about plus two. They've played three Big six teams away

227
00:10:43,000 --> 00:10:45,720
Speaker 2: from home, haven't won the expected golden finential in any

228
00:10:45,760 --> 00:10:48,319
Speaker 2: of those matches. And the one thing that Arsenal did

229
00:10:48,440 --> 00:10:51,800
Speaker 2: such a good job of against Brighton is they counterpressed

230
00:10:51,840 --> 00:10:54,400
Speaker 2: them really really well. They forced six high turnovers. The

231
00:10:54,440 --> 00:10:56,839
Speaker 2: first goal came off of a high turnover. That is

232
00:10:56,920 --> 00:10:58,880
Speaker 2: really the one weakness that you can point out with

233
00:10:58,960 --> 00:11:01,920
Speaker 2: Newcastle right now, the wealth and offensive pass per defensive actions.

234
00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:04,360
Speaker 2: So if Arsenal's able to counterpress the way they were

235
00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:07,240
Speaker 2: able to press Brighton, who is a top six seven

236
00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:09,120
Speaker 2: team at playing through pressure and a team that loves

237
00:11:09,160 --> 00:11:11,559
Speaker 2: played through the middle of the pitch, something that Newcastle

238
00:11:11,760 --> 00:11:14,800
Speaker 2: also likes to do, I think Arsenal can definitely definitely

239
00:11:14,840 --> 00:11:16,520
Speaker 2: get at Newcastle and transition here.

240
00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:20,400
Speaker 1: And I've looked through all of the Arsenal metrics.

241
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Speaker 2: I don't really see a major weakness with them defensively,

242
00:11:23,640 --> 00:11:25,440
Speaker 2: like you can't really get through at them.

243
00:11:25,480 --> 00:11:25,959
Speaker 1: In transition.

244
00:11:26,000 --> 00:11:29,360
Speaker 2: They're number one and passes, progressive passing, dribbles allowed like

245
00:11:29,559 --> 00:11:31,880
Speaker 2: they're a top five set piece team. They're top two

246
00:11:31,960 --> 00:11:34,640
Speaker 2: at passes loud in the penalty area, crosses loud in

247
00:11:34,679 --> 00:11:38,000
Speaker 2: the penaltyia, Like, it's very, very difficult to actually generate

248
00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:41,000
Speaker 2: a high quality chance here against Arsenal. And you know what, Yeah,

249
00:11:41,080 --> 00:11:43,320
Speaker 2: they have been overporming offensively as of late, Like they've

250
00:11:43,320 --> 00:11:45,200
Speaker 2: been running really hot, they've been scoring a ton of goals,

251
00:11:45,440 --> 00:11:47,920
Speaker 2: but they've still created eleven and a half expecting goals

252
00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:51,760
Speaker 2: in their last five matches, and they just created five

253
00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:54,320
Speaker 2: big scoring chances against the top seven defense at their

254
00:11:54,360 --> 00:11:59,120
Speaker 2: own ground. So a price of minus one twenty five

255
00:11:59,320 --> 00:12:01,760
Speaker 2: is far, far, far too cheap for Arsenal. And what

256
00:12:01,840 --> 00:12:03,640
Speaker 2: they've done such a good job tactically, which I think

257
00:12:03,640 --> 00:12:05,920
Speaker 2: they'll be able to really he had at Newcastle, is

258
00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:08,280
Speaker 2: they love to create these overloads at one side of

259
00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:10,400
Speaker 2: the pitch because Shaka has been doing such a good

260
00:12:10,480 --> 00:12:12,679
Speaker 2: job of getting forward, because Thomas Party is such a

261
00:12:12,760 --> 00:12:15,960
Speaker 2: good defensive midfielder and holding midfielder and defending in transition,

262
00:12:16,400 --> 00:12:18,360
Speaker 2: that Odegard has been able to be a floating number

263
00:12:18,400 --> 00:12:20,439
Speaker 2: ten and create overloads and either left with Martinelli or

264
00:12:20,480 --> 00:12:22,520
Speaker 2: the right with Sokka, And that's why you've seen them

265
00:12:22,559 --> 00:12:24,840
Speaker 2: get so much space down the wings. If you look

266
00:12:24,840 --> 00:12:26,920
Speaker 2: at Newcastle, Triper is not that great of a defender

267
00:12:26,960 --> 00:12:29,480
Speaker 2: on the right side. Matt Target is out for this match,

268
00:12:29,559 --> 00:12:32,040
Speaker 2: so Arsenal should be able to create those overloads, should

269
00:12:32,080 --> 00:12:34,400
Speaker 2: be able to create those chances down the flanks. And

270
00:12:34,480 --> 00:12:37,800
Speaker 2: Newcastle is also still without e Shak so this is

271
00:12:37,800 --> 00:12:40,760
Speaker 2: a great spot for Arsenal. Minus one twenty five too cheap,

272
00:12:40,840 --> 00:12:43,040
Speaker 2: way too cheap. I have them projected minus one forty three,

273
00:12:43,080 --> 00:12:45,199
Speaker 2: So give me my gunners minus one twenty five.

274
00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:51,679
Speaker 5: Arsenal's really good. I think knows that Newcastle's really good too.

275
00:12:52,320 --> 00:12:57,600
Speaker 5: I think this number at Newcastle's fine. You're getting better

276
00:12:57,679 --> 00:13:05,000
Speaker 5: than plus three thirty and a team that since October

277
00:13:05,120 --> 00:13:08,280
Speaker 5: first like that. These two teams have been fantastic. I

278
00:13:08,320 --> 00:13:10,439
Speaker 5: think if you look at their x G it's it's

279
00:13:11,280 --> 00:13:13,880
Speaker 5: nip and tuck like. Depending on what models you're looking at,

280
00:13:14,160 --> 00:13:16,560
Speaker 5: one might be slightly ahead of the other. Arsenal might

281
00:13:16,559 --> 00:13:19,239
Speaker 5: be the best team in the league by XG differential,

282
00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:21,320
Speaker 5: and you look at a different model, it's it's Newcastle.

283
00:13:21,400 --> 00:13:24,720
Speaker 5: So I think that it's tight enough, and I think

284
00:13:24,760 --> 00:13:29,360
Speaker 5: it's I know that the the market has caught up

285
00:13:29,480 --> 00:13:32,160
Speaker 5: on Newcastle a long time ago, but it still feels

286
00:13:32,200 --> 00:13:36,400
Speaker 5: a little bit like if you took the Newcastle statistical

287
00:13:36,440 --> 00:13:42,960
Speaker 5: portfolio and you just slapped Chelsea on there, what would

288
00:13:43,000 --> 00:13:45,079
Speaker 5: this number be. I don't think it would be this high.

289
00:13:45,240 --> 00:13:47,679
Speaker 5: So I actually think Newcastle is worth a bet here.

290
00:13:49,400 --> 00:13:51,720
Speaker 5: I think it's a little bit disrespectful for what they've

291
00:13:51,760 --> 00:13:54,640
Speaker 5: done and what they can do. Yes, Arsenal is really good,

292
00:13:54,679 --> 00:13:57,679
Speaker 5: but it's this is this is a steep price to

293
00:13:57,720 --> 00:13:59,840
Speaker 5: me in my eyes, bj And I really was shocked

294
00:13:59,840 --> 00:14:01,880
Speaker 5: at thought you were going to be uh oh, come

295
00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:05,199
Speaker 5: on doing one of your I'm not betting against Arsenal,

296
00:14:05,240 --> 00:14:05,680
Speaker 5: but I can't.

297
00:14:05,760 --> 00:14:07,320
Speaker 1: I can't get a base number the Arsenal.

298
00:14:07,800 --> 00:14:10,520
Speaker 2: I believe Newcastle took money because Arsenal opened around you know,

299
00:14:10,600 --> 00:14:12,480
Speaker 2: minus one forty five or so, and now we're down

300
00:14:12,520 --> 00:14:15,079
Speaker 2: to minus one twenty five so, and Arsenal has no

301
00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:18,160
Speaker 2: significant injuries, so I'm not really sure. People I guess

302
00:14:18,160 --> 00:14:20,320
Speaker 2: are believing in Newcastle and saying that Arsenal has been

303
00:14:20,400 --> 00:14:22,600
Speaker 2: running really hot, but they're still creating a ton of

304
00:14:22,680 --> 00:14:25,840
Speaker 2: expected goals. So no, I love I love the gunners

305
00:14:25,880 --> 00:14:27,600
Speaker 2: here too cheap, way too cheap.

306
00:14:27,960 --> 00:14:28,840
Speaker 5: What about you, Anthony?

307
00:14:29,920 --> 00:14:32,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm probably gonna sit this one out.

308
00:14:32,720 --> 00:14:32,840
Speaker 5: Uh.

309
00:14:34,680 --> 00:14:36,480
Speaker 3: I think we're you know, it's the two darlings, right,

310
00:14:36,520 --> 00:14:38,960
Speaker 3: the two teams that have surpassed expectations by the most

311
00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:41,960
Speaker 3: this season in the league, playing one another in a

312
00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:44,400
Speaker 3: situation where the market has upgraded both of them a

313
00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:46,920
Speaker 3: lot since the season began. Arsenal less so because the

314
00:14:46,960 --> 00:14:49,480
Speaker 3: market was high on them coming in, but the market

315
00:14:49,520 --> 00:14:51,360
Speaker 3: is upgraded both these teams a lot, and we're kind

316
00:14:51,400 --> 00:14:54,040
Speaker 3: of at a point now where you can make the

317
00:14:54,120 --> 00:14:56,880
Speaker 3: case that it's getting to or is near a good

318
00:14:56,920 --> 00:14:59,280
Speaker 3: time to kind of sell both relative to the market number.

319
00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:02,400
Speaker 3: I can poke more holes in the Newcastle team, for sure.

320
00:15:03,360 --> 00:15:05,120
Speaker 3: I think their defense away from home has not been

321
00:15:05,160 --> 00:15:08,520
Speaker 3: nearly as stout bag you mentioned that they've run pretty

322
00:15:08,560 --> 00:15:11,760
Speaker 3: well away from home, like they've they've conceded a bunch

323
00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:13,560
Speaker 3: of chances and gotten let off the hook for it,

324
00:15:14,320 --> 00:15:16,120
Speaker 3: and their defense at home has been stellar. But again,

325
00:15:16,280 --> 00:15:19,800
Speaker 3: like when they've played the bigger teams they have, you know,

326
00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:22,200
Speaker 3: when your team that wants to press like Newcastle and

327
00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:25,400
Speaker 3: your players aren't quite as good. The system is good,

328
00:15:25,440 --> 00:15:28,880
Speaker 3: but the players aren't quite as good. The little things

329
00:15:28,920 --> 00:15:30,640
Speaker 3: make a big difference, and I think that's what's happened

330
00:15:30,640 --> 00:15:32,080
Speaker 3: when they played the other Big six teams.

331
00:15:32,160 --> 00:15:32,760
Speaker 4: Yes, they've had to go.

332
00:15:32,880 --> 00:15:35,520
Speaker 3: They've caused problems for all of the defenses, which, by

333
00:15:35,560 --> 00:15:39,280
Speaker 3: the way, I very much think Newcastle can cause problems

334
00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:43,040
Speaker 3: for Arsenal's defense in those direct transition opportunity moments running

335
00:15:43,080 --> 00:15:46,040
Speaker 3: at them. You mentioned what's Arsenal's problem defensively, b J.

336
00:15:46,160 --> 00:15:46,480
Speaker 4: Williams.

337
00:15:46,480 --> 00:15:48,760
Speaker 3: Saliba seems to be having a Howler per match these days.

338
00:15:49,640 --> 00:15:53,480
Speaker 3: So that's the the whole, not necessarily the whole, but

339
00:15:53,560 --> 00:15:57,240
Speaker 3: the transition, the transition defense. Yes, the transition defense has

340
00:15:57,240 --> 00:16:00,240
Speaker 3: been the biggest area of improvement for Arsenal, and that

341
00:16:00,440 --> 00:16:03,760
Speaker 3: comes the skepticism that it could just regress and like

342
00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:06,040
Speaker 3: they could just get worse again and not be quite

343
00:16:06,040 --> 00:16:09,080
Speaker 3: as sustainably good into defense of transition, which is where

344
00:16:09,080 --> 00:16:11,880
Speaker 3: I think Newcastle is at their best. So I can

345
00:16:11,920 --> 00:16:14,280
Speaker 3: make a case for both sides. The number seems about

346
00:16:14,320 --> 00:16:16,560
Speaker 3: right to me. I make Arsenal liners one thirty, so

347
00:16:17,160 --> 00:16:20,080
Speaker 3: you know, maybe a taliany bit, but not something I'm

348
00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:22,320
Speaker 3: running to the window to bet, probably gonna end up

349
00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:22,840
Speaker 3: staying away here.

350
00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:24,560
Speaker 4: I like a lot of unders on the board this weekend.

351
00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:27,560
Speaker 3: This is not one of them, because I don't want

352
00:16:27,560 --> 00:16:29,240
Speaker 3: to step in front of the Arsenal train anymore. I

353
00:16:29,320 --> 00:16:32,160
Speaker 3: tried betting an under against west Ham and they burned me,

354
00:16:32,240 --> 00:16:35,560
Speaker 3: and then at Brighton they burned me again. So there's

355
00:16:35,640 --> 00:16:38,080
Speaker 3: time to fade this Arsenal team, probably, and I thought

356
00:16:38,120 --> 00:16:40,600
Speaker 3: Saturday was and it wasn't. But this is not the

357
00:16:40,640 --> 00:16:42,360
Speaker 3: one for me, So I'm abbays sitting this one out.

358
00:16:43,080 --> 00:16:45,880
Speaker 5: You can't sit this one out. The other headliner, the

359
00:16:45,960 --> 00:16:49,720
Speaker 5: real headliner here Evertton on a one match on beaten streak.

360
00:16:49,720 --> 00:16:52,960
Speaker 5: They're plus two to fifty hosting Brighton plus one ten

361
00:16:53,200 --> 00:16:56,080
Speaker 5: to draw here is plus two fifty. I think what

362
00:16:56,200 --> 00:17:01,200
Speaker 5: we saw at Everton was important because of the formation, right,

363
00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:03,520
Speaker 5: they went five at the back against City on the road.

364
00:17:03,560 --> 00:17:07,000
Speaker 5: Obviously it's City, so it makes some sense, but they

365
00:17:07,080 --> 00:17:11,720
Speaker 5: looked just much more of a cohesive unit defending. Actually

366
00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:14,920
Speaker 5: thought although like City obviously paced them by x G,

367
00:17:15,480 --> 00:17:20,080
Speaker 5: they actually played really well defending the point right, especially

368
00:17:20,359 --> 00:17:21,720
Speaker 5: after they tied it up. I thought that they did

369
00:17:21,760 --> 00:17:25,040
Speaker 5: a pretty good job. If lamp I think if Lampard

370
00:17:25,119 --> 00:17:27,679
Speaker 5: goes that way like that just makes Everden a much

371
00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:31,639
Speaker 5: better underdog, because I know he's gonna want to entertain

372
00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:33,879
Speaker 5: the home crowd here, but it gets brighton, like why

373
00:17:33,920 --> 00:17:35,960
Speaker 5: wouldn't you just do that? They can't break that like

374
00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:37,760
Speaker 5: they've This is where they struggled the most, right, like

375
00:17:37,840 --> 00:17:40,320
Speaker 5: trying to break down these low blocks. We always talk

376
00:17:40,320 --> 00:17:42,200
Speaker 5: about how they don't profile well as a favor, so

377
00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:46,880
Speaker 5: it would be evident or nothing for me here, Anthony,

378
00:17:47,280 --> 00:17:49,800
Speaker 5: you've been fading the everdent defense. Will you be doing

379
00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:50,200
Speaker 5: it again?

380
00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:52,919
Speaker 4: Yeah? I mean it was an impressive showing.

381
00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:55,359
Speaker 3: I thought they they did an excellent job defending the

382
00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:57,440
Speaker 3: penalty are because City had no problem getting into the

383
00:17:57,480 --> 00:17:57,879
Speaker 3: penalty here.

384
00:17:57,920 --> 00:18:00,439
Speaker 4: They were able to pretty much get there as much

385
00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:01,000
Speaker 4: as they wanted.

386
00:18:01,080 --> 00:18:02,879
Speaker 3: But once in the area, I guess, you know, the

387
00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:06,159
Speaker 3: extra defenders and and blocking a ton of shots like

388
00:18:06,280 --> 00:18:09,159
Speaker 3: it all, you know, paid off in the end in

389
00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:10,679
Speaker 3: the sense that you know, you hold them to one

390
00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:12,760
Speaker 3: goal and then yes, City had their chances. When they

391
00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:14,960
Speaker 3: put up the eleven on the big board, I was like, oh, no,

392
00:18:15,760 --> 00:18:17,960
Speaker 3: like they're going to score in stoppage time, but yeah,

393
00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:20,960
Speaker 3: it's sixteen passes the penaltaria, so there was no midfield

394
00:18:21,000 --> 00:18:24,280
Speaker 3: resistance at all, and so you know how repeatable is

395
00:18:24,320 --> 00:18:27,320
Speaker 3: that is my question for Everton, you know, because if

396
00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:29,680
Speaker 3: you let teams in your penaltaria that much, you're just

397
00:18:29,800 --> 00:18:30,960
Speaker 3: asking to get punished.

398
00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:34,280
Speaker 4: And I kind of like both teams to score here.

399
00:18:34,320 --> 00:18:36,359
Speaker 4: I think this is a Deservey thing. And I almost

400
00:18:36,359 --> 00:18:37,000
Speaker 4: forgot about that.

401
00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:38,760
Speaker 3: We said this, and that I had these takes. But

402
00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:41,040
Speaker 3: we said when Deservey got higher, were going to look

403
00:18:41,040 --> 00:18:43,680
Speaker 3: to place some brighton overs. And then we thought that,

404
00:18:44,000 --> 00:18:45,520
Speaker 3: you know, they were going to be more high event

405
00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:49,679
Speaker 3: because of him taking more chances in possession, playing out

406
00:18:49,720 --> 00:18:53,359
Speaker 3: from the back at all times, even more than Potter was. Like,

407
00:18:53,480 --> 00:18:55,520
Speaker 3: all of those things remained true, and we kind of just,

408
00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:56,560
Speaker 3: I guess forgot about them.

409
00:18:56,600 --> 00:18:59,720
Speaker 4: And let's look at the results. I mean, since Deservey

410
00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:03,880
Speaker 4: took over, Uh, you know, they had a zillion goals. Yeah,

411
00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:04,280
Speaker 4: they had.

412
00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:06,520
Speaker 3: They had a couple of low scoring games with like

413
00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:08,600
Speaker 3: Spurs and Brentford when they missed a bunch of chances.

414
00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:10,879
Speaker 3: But one a three to one loss to City, a

415
00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:12,600
Speaker 3: four to one win against Chelsea, a three to two

416
00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:16,120
Speaker 3: loss or win against Wolves, three to one against Arsenal

417
00:19:16,200 --> 00:19:18,880
Speaker 3: in the Cup, two to one against Villa, loss three

418
00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:19,280
Speaker 3: to one.

419
00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:23,800
Speaker 4: Four to two. Now I don't think it's sustainable and extual.

420
00:19:23,840 --> 00:19:25,840
Speaker 3: You will say that like regressions coming, like they're not

421
00:19:25,840 --> 00:19:28,600
Speaker 3: going to keep playing those kind of games. But to

422
00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:31,280
Speaker 3: see the both teams to score under minus one thirty

423
00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:34,720
Speaker 3: here was really surprising. And probably we're all end up

424
00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:37,040
Speaker 3: on this one because I do think that the market

425
00:19:37,119 --> 00:19:38,840
Speaker 3: is just slow to Yeah. I mean I wanted to

426
00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:41,240
Speaker 3: bet the under in the Brighton Arsenal game. That was

427
00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:42,679
Speaker 3: like my first read and then I was like, oh,

428
00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:43,880
Speaker 3: it'll be like close to three.

429
00:19:44,119 --> 00:19:45,240
Speaker 4: It was two and a half. I was like, what,

430
00:19:46,040 --> 00:19:48,600
Speaker 4: it's kind of crazy. Uh, just.

431
00:19:50,200 --> 00:19:52,800
Speaker 3: You know, whether Metoma is a part of the team

432
00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:55,720
Speaker 3: as a starter or super sub or what. I don't know,

433
00:19:56,359 --> 00:19:59,560
Speaker 3: but ever to Sorry, Brighton, We'll get Casado back, they

434
00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:02,360
Speaker 3: may get McAllister that that team remains to be seen.

435
00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:04,920
Speaker 4: He might still be partying, but Caiedo will definitely be back.

436
00:20:05,000 --> 00:20:08,840
Speaker 3: And I think generally speaking, this is a good over

437
00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:12,400
Speaker 3: slash BTDF spot with Everton's defense still being fraudulent.

438
00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:14,680
Speaker 5: IBG, you're kind of on that same page here, and

439
00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:16,400
Speaker 5: they're not fraudulent. They're getting better.

440
00:20:17,040 --> 00:20:19,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, Everton overs are going to be a thing now

441
00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:22,679
Speaker 2: because I mean, like Anthony mentioned their defense has been

442
00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:26,000
Speaker 2: running incredibly hot, but they've also been underperforming offensively. Michael,

443
00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:29,400
Speaker 2: I mean they've Everton matches this season have featured thirty

444
00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:33,400
Speaker 2: two goals off about forty five expected. So at some point,

445
00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:35,359
Speaker 2: either the defense is going to progress, Pickford is not

446
00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:37,680
Speaker 2: gonna is going to turn back into maybe not the

447
00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:41,240
Speaker 2: best goalkeeper in the world, or Neil Mapai and Dominique

448
00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:44,000
Speaker 2: Calvert Loan will start finishing some of these chances.

449
00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:46,760
Speaker 1: That they get. But yeah, I Anthony or Anthony.

450
00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:50,200
Speaker 2: Gordon, any any attacker, maybe maybe Dimari Gray, who knows,

451
00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:53,520
Speaker 2: but no, yeah, this is a good overspot here. You know,

452
00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:55,760
Speaker 2: I have two point seven goals projected for this one.

453
00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:59,520
Speaker 2: Like Anthony mentioned, Brighton has just been uber uber aggressive

454
00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:02,000
Speaker 2: in possession and you know everything's going.

455
00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:02,480
Speaker 1: To sit back.

456
00:21:02,520 --> 00:21:04,520
Speaker 2: But that also sets up very very well for them

457
00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:08,800
Speaker 2: to counter Brighton, who has not looked good in transition defense.

458
00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:10,760
Speaker 1: Let's just say that under deserve me.

459
00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:13,720
Speaker 2: Obviously, they've been more aggressive and been much better at

460
00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:16,600
Speaker 2: playing through the middle of the pitch, but everything's going

461
00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:18,280
Speaker 2: to clog that up, and once they get the ball,

462
00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:21,119
Speaker 2: everything's going to hopefully get the ball moving forward quickly.

463
00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:24,720
Speaker 2: They have attackers who can finish. Hopefully at some point

464
00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:26,440
Speaker 2: they will be able to. So yeah, I think this

465
00:21:26,480 --> 00:21:28,320
Speaker 2: is a good overspot here. I'm with Anthony Styll like

466
00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:30,360
Speaker 2: over two and a half goals at plus.

467
00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:33,280
Speaker 5: One five Leicester City or plus one twenty. This is

468
00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:39,200
Speaker 5: another Tuesday kickcuff amptonon kickcuff, they're hosting phone phones plus

469
00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:42,520
Speaker 5: two ten. The draw here is plus to sixty Fulham

470
00:21:42,560 --> 00:21:45,159
Speaker 5: with another win. We are all on Southampton in that

471
00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:47,240
Speaker 5: win and it didn't go.

472
00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:51,520
Speaker 4: Well, so fraudulent though that win was, Yeah, and it just.

473
00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:54,399
Speaker 5: Just this is a it's a this is a frustrating

474
00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:57,359
Speaker 5: spot because if you had.

475
00:21:57,560 --> 00:21:59,520
Speaker 1: You can't play Southampton here, you just can't.

476
00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:03,400
Speaker 5: Yeah, Lester, if if excuse me, I'm a wrong match.

477
00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:06,639
Speaker 5: I was like if I if you would if you

478
00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:08,159
Speaker 5: had given him, if you said, oh, like you know

479
00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:11,520
Speaker 5: you're obviously gonna go against Folloham again after that performance,

480
00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:14,040
Speaker 5: what spot would you not do it? I probably would

481
00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:16,320
Speaker 5: have said Leicester it is a home favorite, Like, yeah,

482
00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:19,560
Speaker 5: this is the worst, the worst spot for it because

483
00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:22,159
Speaker 5: I want to go against Fulham, but the price and

484
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:24,360
Speaker 5: the team is just not even close to good enough.

485
00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:28,879
Speaker 5: So uh, this is a past for me. Unfortunately because

486
00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:32,080
Speaker 5: it's it's tough Anthony, what do you have?

487
00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:34,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, Friend of the Pod, It's funny you said that

488
00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:36,600
Speaker 3: story because Friend of the Pod h U Kapper was

489
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:39,800
Speaker 3: also on Southampton over the weekend and he DM me

490
00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:42,720
Speaker 3: right after the match and was like, they're at Lester,

491
00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:44,840
Speaker 3: like like, what do you think fade him?

492
00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:47,399
Speaker 4: I'm like, that's the one spot I will never like

493
00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:48,600
Speaker 4: the like I said last week.

494
00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:51,720
Speaker 3: Uh, And they lost to Liverpool and and it was

495
00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:54,480
Speaker 3: kind of funny wild phase with two goals.

496
00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:57,840
Speaker 4: They weren't good in that match either Lester. I didn't

497
00:22:57,880 --> 00:22:58,639
Speaker 4: upgrade them off of that.

498
00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:01,000
Speaker 3: I didn't think they were particularly impres in any shape

499
00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:06,159
Speaker 3: or way or form against Liverpool. But yeah, I mean

500
00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:11,080
Speaker 3: Lester's slightly better on like XG difference. I don't really

501
00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:12,560
Speaker 3: think they're that much better. I think that they're like

502
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:14,359
Speaker 3: pretty even teams. And so you have Lester as a

503
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:18,280
Speaker 3: small home favorite, and I don't really want to bet

504
00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:21,800
Speaker 3: Lester ever this season unless the market just craters on them,

505
00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:24,040
Speaker 3: which I don't see happening. So yeah, this is not

506
00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:25,359
Speaker 3: going to be a lesser spot for me. But it

507
00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:27,920
Speaker 3: is the two teams all year that I keep losing

508
00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:28,760
Speaker 3: money on these unders.

509
00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:32,480
Speaker 4: I'm going back to the well again on the under

510
00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:33,080
Speaker 4: two and a half.

511
00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:37,720
Speaker 3: I mean, Fulham did nothing, nothing in that entire game

512
00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:40,600
Speaker 3: against Southampton. The first goal came off of a set piece,

513
00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:42,440
Speaker 3: but it wasn't the set piece itself. It was the

514
00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:45,480
Speaker 3: ball deflected out to Pereira. He hit a shot, it

515
00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:47,919
Speaker 3: was going way wide, hit wood Proft's foot and then

516
00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:50,400
Speaker 3: went into the top corner. And then the second goal

517
00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:52,160
Speaker 3: was a nice set piece header. I have to give

518
00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:54,280
Speaker 3: them credit for that, but they created less than one

519
00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:57,960
Speaker 3: expected goal in that match at home against Southampton. Fulham

520
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:03,160
Speaker 3: the attack continues to just run on. They have one

521
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:07,200
Speaker 3: way of scoring goals and it's and it just keeps working.

522
00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:10,040
Speaker 3: And like maybe all season long Fulham will just over

523
00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:11,440
Speaker 3: and for a year and a half now, like I

524
00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:13,480
Speaker 3: keep saying this every week, I'm a broken record.

525
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:15,520
Speaker 4: But like when you only have plan A and.

526
00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:20,080
Speaker 3: Plan A keeps working, eventually, like there there has to

527
00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:23,080
Speaker 3: be some time where Plan A doesn't work and you

528
00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:24,720
Speaker 3: your attack kind of falls apart.

529
00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:26,880
Speaker 4: And I think that's coming for Fulham at some point here.

530
00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:30,520
Speaker 3: Like yes, their third and crosses completed in the Penaltariya

531
00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:33,840
Speaker 3: Leicester is decent, not good at stopping crosses either, so

532
00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:35,159
Speaker 3: like that is a bit of a red flag. But

533
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:39,480
Speaker 3: this Leicester team another team that just can't get the

534
00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:41,639
Speaker 3: ball into the penaltyary consistently to create chances.

535
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:42,639
Speaker 4: They are going to be the favorite.

536
00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:45,880
Speaker 3: They're gonna have most of the possessions. So I'll I'll

537
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:48,200
Speaker 3: roll with the under two and a half at plus money.

538
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:54,320
Speaker 5: Uh Street PM kickoff on Tuesdays. United Glory Glory, Man United.

539
00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 5: They're back. They've been pretty good. We'll see for a

540
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:03,000
Speaker 5: while now. They're hosting United's minus three to fifty big favorite,

541
00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:06,840
Speaker 5: biggest favorite on on the board this week Bournemouth ten

542
00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:09,000
Speaker 5: to one. The draw is plus four point fifty.

543
00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:11,639
Speaker 4: Not a spot for me.

544
00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:15,119
Speaker 5: To go. So I'm just gonna turn this one over

545
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:17,359
Speaker 5: to you guys. You guys both have place, so bej will.

546
00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:17,560
Speaker 4: Start with you.

547
00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:20,320
Speaker 1: The spot is the FA Cup this this weekend.

548
00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:24,720
Speaker 2: Michael again, Yeah against that's right, Yeah, No, I like

549
00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:26,520
Speaker 2: a both teams score no here at minus one ten.

550
00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:29,960
Speaker 2: I think what you're seeing here is that ever since

551
00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:33,600
Speaker 2: United got just absolutely throttled by Man City on October

552
00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:36,840
Speaker 2: tewod they've conceded seven point six expected goals in their

553
00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:39,760
Speaker 2: last nine matches. They've just been playing much much better defensively,

554
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:43,800
Speaker 2: and then the where they've actually improved is defending inside

555
00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:45,439
Speaker 2: their own penalty area like they are in the bottom

556
00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:48,000
Speaker 2: half Mere League and passes allowed and touched a looted

557
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:49,399
Speaker 2: in the penal the area, but their top five and

558
00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:52,760
Speaker 2: big scoring chants allowed now they're top five and extually

559
00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:56,720
Speaker 2: allowed per set piece, which is basically how Bournemouth creates

560
00:25:56,880 --> 00:26:00,520
Speaker 2: all of their their chances. I mean, Bournemouth, we're seventeen

561
00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:03,480
Speaker 2: matches into the season. They've created eight point seven expected

562
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:06,560
Speaker 2: goals from open play, like they've scored thirteen off of them,

563
00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:08,480
Speaker 2: which shows that they're just finishing at a crazy rate

564
00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:10,880
Speaker 2: and you're starting to see that regression come down over

565
00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:14,840
Speaker 2: these last two matches. But again, but then the flip

566
00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:17,720
Speaker 2: side of that is okay, Manchester United, they've created over

567
00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:20,360
Speaker 2: two expected goals in their last two matches against Nottingham

568
00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:24,000
Speaker 2: Forest and Wolves, which is great, but now you know

569
00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:30,040
Speaker 2: Christian Awernado's obviously moved on a Rashford martial attack is fine,

570
00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:31,960
Speaker 2: but I mean Rashford's only been a point three to

571
00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:34,960
Speaker 2: four xg P ninety minute striker this season, like Marshall's

572
00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:38,159
Speaker 2: played four full nineties, So to say United's going to

573
00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:40,199
Speaker 2: become this great offense that's going to create over two

574
00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:42,480
Speaker 2: expected goals or average over one and a half, I

575
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:45,280
Speaker 2: think is a little bit far fetched. Obviously, they're playing Bournemouth,

576
00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:48,160
Speaker 2: who is not that great of a defense, like their

577
00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:51,200
Speaker 2: fifteenth and non penally expected goals allowed. But I really

578
00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:55,240
Speaker 2: don't see a scenario where Bournemouth is going to create

579
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:58,879
Speaker 2: over zero point six point seven expected goals. And then

580
00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:01,200
Speaker 2: it's just basically coming down to variants. So and again,

581
00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:03,879
Speaker 2: you know it's really good at defending step pieces. So uh, well,

582
00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:05,560
Speaker 2: I have both team to score no projected at minus

583
00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:07,399
Speaker 2: one forty two. I like the value on minus one ten.

584
00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:09,920
Speaker 2: I'm taking both team to score no instead of under

585
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:13,320
Speaker 2: three because I'm very very scared of United three nothing

586
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:16,200
Speaker 2: four nothing route and I'm showing more value on both

587
00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:20,120
Speaker 2: team score no. So that's where I'm going in this one, Antony,

588
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:21,160
Speaker 2: you're back in that route.

589
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:23,639
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's gotten so bad for Borneman though.

590
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:25,120
Speaker 3: When I was doing prep before the show, I tried

591
00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:26,520
Speaker 3: to pull up their fb ref page and it was

592
00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:30,280
Speaker 3: down for maintenance, so you can't even you can't even

593
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:33,040
Speaker 3: look at bournemous stats on fb ref anymore because they're

594
00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:34,359
Speaker 3: so bad and we have to go back to what

595
00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:35,680
Speaker 3: we said at the beginning of the season on them,

596
00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:37,440
Speaker 3: which is coming in like how are they going to

597
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:39,320
Speaker 3: score goals? And then they just scored a shit ton

598
00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:42,720
Speaker 3: of goals for like half the season. But they're starting

599
00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:43,719
Speaker 3: to come back down to earth now.

600
00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:44,320
Speaker 4: I mean, you look at it.

601
00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:46,320
Speaker 3: They didn't score against Chelsea, didn't create much of anything,

602
00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:48,920
Speaker 3: didn't score against Palace, didn't create much of anything. The

603
00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:53,119
Speaker 3: only game, uh, you know where they've looked competent and

604
00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:55,440
Speaker 3: going forward was the Everton match. They had a couple

605
00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:56,160
Speaker 3: of fluke goals.

606
00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:58,600
Speaker 1: Against off set two Everton matches.

607
00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:01,040
Speaker 3: Anthony right, But how they go on the road to United,

608
00:28:01,080 --> 00:28:02,720
Speaker 3: And I think bj made a good point about the

609
00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:05,680
Speaker 3: set pieces, like Bournemouth needs set pieces to score, it's

610
00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:08,919
Speaker 3: probably their best way of getting out United. And United's

611
00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:10,960
Speaker 3: been very good defensively unset pieces, and that's been the

612
00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:14,679
Speaker 3: case throughout the entire season. So I think it's very

613
00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:16,560
Speaker 3: hard to see bornmis scoring here. Instead of taking the

614
00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:19,080
Speaker 3: minus one twenty, I'm gonna take a plus one ten

615
00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:22,760
Speaker 3: on United shutout victory to win to Nill because I

616
00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:24,760
Speaker 3: do think United will win here and doesn't really have

617
00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:27,040
Speaker 3: much of a problem at the other end with Bournemouth,

618
00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:29,879
Speaker 3: who continue to be a fade candidate, and we've been

619
00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:33,240
Speaker 3: talking about this. The regression is continuing to come for

620
00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:37,680
Speaker 3: them and there's not really any end in sight.

621
00:28:37,880 --> 00:28:39,000
Speaker 4: I think they're going down.

622
00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:44,240
Speaker 5: Let's flip to Wednesday now, a relegation six pointer between Saints.

623
00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:47,760
Speaker 5: Southampton's plus one oh five against Forrest plus two eighty.

624
00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:50,600
Speaker 5: The draw is plus two forty. I know Southampton are

625
00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:55,320
Speaker 5: their record is kind of deceiving compared to their underlying metrics,

626
00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:58,480
Speaker 5: and we just talked about how Fulham we're very lucky

627
00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:01,320
Speaker 5: to get that win, but still not a very good team.

628
00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:06,000
Speaker 5: Forrest starts, you know, there's just a scrappy bunch. Get

629
00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 5: the drug against Chelsea now on the road in a

630
00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:13,480
Speaker 5: relegation six pointer. I don't hate. I think it's Forrest

631
00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:18,360
Speaker 5: or nothing at this price plus two eighty not the

632
00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:20,480
Speaker 5: one I'm most excited to bed, I would say, but

633
00:29:21,200 --> 00:29:23,280
Speaker 5: come Wednesday I'll probably be on on the trees here.

634
00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:26,640
Speaker 5: BJ Let's say you here say.

635
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:29,600
Speaker 2: I can't lay it with Southampton, You're What I'm interested

636
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:31,280
Speaker 2: to see is who's going to control more possession in

637
00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:33,920
Speaker 2: this game because they're at one point against Fulham. I

638
00:29:34,000 --> 00:29:35,880
Speaker 2: mean we knew, I mean I knew, we knew this

639
00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:38,320
Speaker 2: about Nathan Jones coming in. How is Lowton Town teams

640
00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:40,360
Speaker 2: played like they were very very direct they can see

641
00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:43,080
Speaker 2: a ton of possession like Fulham, a team who's also

642
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:45,280
Speaker 2: very very directly at one point was holding like seventy

643
00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:50,640
Speaker 2: percent possession deep into the second half. So I'm not

644
00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:52,360
Speaker 2: really sure what to make this. I'm definitely not gonna

645
00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:54,479
Speaker 2: lay it with Southampton as a favorite. If I had

646
00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:56,200
Speaker 2: to go anything, I'd go with Forest. But again, the

647
00:29:56,240 --> 00:29:59,240
Speaker 2: home road splits for Forest are just are really bad.

648
00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:01,440
Speaker 2: Like they play well at home, like they're about around

649
00:30:01,480 --> 00:30:03,480
Speaker 2: to even expected gold differenteal and then they around minus

650
00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:07,360
Speaker 2: ten on the road. So yeah, this is a probably

651
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:09,440
Speaker 2: the easiest stay away from me on the board. So

652
00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:10,520
Speaker 2: I'm passing on this one.

653
00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:14,760
Speaker 5: Stay and went staying on Wednesday. Leads and west Ham

654
00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:17,360
Speaker 5: is a pick them. It's at Ellen Road leads plus

655
00:30:17,400 --> 00:30:19,960
Speaker 5: one sixty at home west Ham one's sixty on the road.

656
00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:25,000
Speaker 5: The draws plus two fifty. I would say that that

657
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:28,440
Speaker 5: leads Newton leads Newcastle draw. Maybe it's the most surprising

658
00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:32,680
Speaker 5: draw of the season. Going into the game like, I'll

659
00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:33,920
Speaker 5: be like, there is just no way that these two

660
00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:37,560
Speaker 5: teams will play out a draw. There they go, Neil Neil.

661
00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:39,480
Speaker 1: West Ham.

662
00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:43,280
Speaker 5: We've talked about it a lot, will stay with it.

663
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:45,960
Speaker 5: David Moyes is proud like they're probably playing for his

664
00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:50,400
Speaker 5: job right now. I think, yes, it's sad. I would

665
00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:52,280
Speaker 5: disagree with the move. Of course they think that he's

666
00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:55,320
Speaker 5: got them playing great defensive balls. Still the price is

667
00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 5: too short, I think. So this is you just said

668
00:30:57,600 --> 00:31:00,920
Speaker 5: that the Fulham obviousely be the Southamptons match was the

669
00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:03,320
Speaker 5: easiest pass on the board. This, for me, I think

670
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 5: is the easiest pass on the board. But bj you

671
00:31:06,640 --> 00:31:11,480
Speaker 5: think there's a maybe smidget value on David Moyes in

672
00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:13,720
Speaker 5: with a back to the wall spot. Who does better

673
00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:15,840
Speaker 5: in that situation than moys.

674
00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:18,280
Speaker 2: I mean tactically, this is about as perfect as it

675
00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:21,360
Speaker 2: gets when you're going up against Leeds because guess what.

676
00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:23,880
Speaker 2: Leeds is now dead last in the Premier League in

677
00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:26,560
Speaker 2: non penalty expected goals allowed. They're allowing one point six

678
00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:29,920
Speaker 2: two to ninety. They've conceded over six expected goals in

679
00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:31,960
Speaker 2: their last two matches. I know it's against City, I

680
00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:34,200
Speaker 2: know it's against Newcastle, but that's still really bad. Their

681
00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:38,560
Speaker 2: last six matches they've conceded twelve big scoring chances west

682
00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:40,840
Speaker 2: Ham last year. I mean they just flat out destroyed

683
00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:43,440
Speaker 2: leads four point seven expected goals and five big scoring

684
00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:46,360
Speaker 2: chances over the two meetings. And it's mainly because west

685
00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:48,520
Speaker 2: Ham is a top five team at playing through pressure.

686
00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:50,760
Speaker 2: They're gonna be able to sit back and counter leads

687
00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:53,000
Speaker 2: to death. Now west Ham we talked about a lot.

688
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:55,040
Speaker 2: They're one of the biggest positive aggression candidates in the

689
00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:57,360
Speaker 2: Premier League. Right now, there's seventh. They're sitting in seventeenth,

690
00:31:57,680 --> 00:32:00,240
Speaker 2: minus nine actual goal differential but a plus one point

691
00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 2: six expected gold differential. Even their last they've lost their

692
00:32:03,120 --> 00:32:05,400
Speaker 2: last five matches by a combined score of ten to two.

693
00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:08,360
Speaker 2: Expected goals has been seven point seven to five point one.

694
00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:11,840
Speaker 2: So they're way way overdue for some positive aggression to

695
00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:13,440
Speaker 2: go their way. You already mentioned, Michael, there's still a

696
00:32:13,480 --> 00:32:16,360
Speaker 2: top five defensive team by expected goals, So this is

697
00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:18,360
Speaker 2: a really really good spot for them. They're healthy, like

698
00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:21,240
Speaker 2: they they're going They're gonna have their full attack, their

699
00:32:21,280 --> 00:32:26,040
Speaker 2: full defense available and leads is still without Sinastera and Bamford,

700
00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:28,440
Speaker 2: so this is a great spot here for west Ham.

701
00:32:28,560 --> 00:32:29,320
Speaker 1: So I mean I like them.

702
00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:31,520
Speaker 2: John Nobetta at minus one oh five, I mean it's

703
00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:33,560
Speaker 2: you know, I'm not showing a ton of ton of

704
00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:36,160
Speaker 2: value on it, but from the tackle perspective, I mean,

705
00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:37,120
Speaker 2: jesse Mars's.

706
00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:39,600
Speaker 1: Defense sucks, just flat out They're terrible.

707
00:32:39,800 --> 00:32:42,400
Speaker 2: So I love the spot for west Ham all right,

708
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:46,920
Speaker 2: speaking of I'm I'm just speaking the truth.

709
00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:51,080
Speaker 3: No, I think I agree actually, though not necessarily on

710
00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:53,120
Speaker 3: the side because I projected this as a coin flip.

711
00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:56,480
Speaker 3: But on the matchup, I don't love it for Leeds

712
00:32:56,600 --> 00:32:59,920
Speaker 3: because west Ham is very comfortable being a passive defense,

713
00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:02,800
Speaker 3: sitting deep waiting for their moment to hit. In transition,

714
00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:05,560
Speaker 3: they're probably going to get one or two big chances

715
00:33:05,600 --> 00:33:07,160
Speaker 3: and it comes down to whether or not they finish them,

716
00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:09,040
Speaker 3: and they are due for positive aggression, but the market

717
00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:11,760
Speaker 3: isn't really downgrading them that much. Like I thought we'd

718
00:33:11,800 --> 00:33:15,040
Speaker 3: get like a solid road dog price here and then

719
00:33:15,040 --> 00:33:16,640
Speaker 3: maybe i'd hop in on west Ham, but we're not

720
00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:17,280
Speaker 3: really getting it.

721
00:33:17,760 --> 00:33:22,280
Speaker 4: And west Ham they're not capable of consistently getting the

722
00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:23,000
Speaker 4: ball into the penalty.

723
00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:25,400
Speaker 3: I mean they're fifteenth and touches in the area and

724
00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:27,960
Speaker 3: eighteenth and passes against a leads team.

725
00:33:28,040 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 4: That the problem with leads. Of course, they're good at

726
00:33:30,440 --> 00:33:31,960
Speaker 4: keeping you out of the area, but when you get it.

727
00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:34,560
Speaker 3: It's almost always because they've broken down and you were

728
00:33:34,600 --> 00:33:35,920
Speaker 3: able to get like a great shot out of it.

729
00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:38,280
Speaker 3: So they take the risk that you won't get you know,

730
00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:39,880
Speaker 3: more than one or two great shots and you won't

731
00:33:39,880 --> 00:33:43,400
Speaker 3: score them, and so the reality is that they've you know,

732
00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:46,480
Speaker 3: conceded the fifteenth most big scoring chances, like they're individual

733
00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:48,920
Speaker 3: defending is poor. I don't think the system is bad.

734
00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:50,720
Speaker 3: I think when you look at their numbers and you

735
00:33:50,760 --> 00:33:55,640
Speaker 3: see how they play, like they let the system down,

736
00:33:55,920 --> 00:33:58,560
Speaker 3: but they're lacking quality. But you could also criticize the

737
00:33:58,600 --> 00:34:00,760
Speaker 3: manager for saying, why are you playing you could system

738
00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:03,880
Speaker 3: that puts so much stress on an under talented undercook

739
00:34:03,920 --> 00:34:04,640
Speaker 3: defensive talent.

740
00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:06,880
Speaker 4: That being said, leads continue to.

741
00:34:06,920 --> 00:34:08,759
Speaker 3: Be fine in the prem and they will be fine

742
00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:11,440
Speaker 3: going forward. But yeah, this is a stay away from

743
00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:13,040
Speaker 3: me as well. I just think the matchup is not

744
00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:15,920
Speaker 3: great for leads. I don't really take a ton into

745
00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:17,880
Speaker 3: what happened last year. One of the meetings Leads was

746
00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:19,040
Speaker 3: so injured it didn't even matter.

747
00:34:19,160 --> 00:34:20,640
Speaker 4: Like it was really bad.

748
00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:22,160
Speaker 1: But the Academy is playing the Academy.

749
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:24,960
Speaker 3: The Academy played, yeah, and it was it was rough,

750
00:34:25,040 --> 00:34:29,840
Speaker 3: but uh, west Ham just the attacking pieces have regressed

751
00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:31,480
Speaker 3: and I think that's the biggest thing and the biggest

752
00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:34,439
Speaker 3: difference here, on top of of course just running bad.

753
00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:37,759
Speaker 1: I'm I'm switching my pick. I'm going west Ham over

754
00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:39,440
Speaker 1: one and a half goals at plus one thirty five.

755
00:34:41,160 --> 00:34:41,440
Speaker 4: To do that?

756
00:34:42,560 --> 00:34:43,520
Speaker 1: Am I not allowed to do that?

757
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:44,719
Speaker 5: Oh? Of course you're allowed to do it.

758
00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:45,520
Speaker 1: Okay, I'm doing that.

759
00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:47,600
Speaker 2: I'm switching from Gono bet So West Team over one

760
00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:49,120
Speaker 2: and a half at plus one thirty five.

761
00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:56,560
Speaker 4: Let's actually get the plus money. Leeds will score three.

762
00:34:57,360 --> 00:34:59,920
Speaker 4: Oh of course, yeah, because of Marsh master class.

763
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:00,839
Speaker 1: M hmm.

764
00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:05,560
Speaker 5: I want to save a specific match for the end

765
00:35:05,640 --> 00:35:08,239
Speaker 5: of the Premier League session, so let's talk about Villa

766
00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:14,440
Speaker 5: and Wolves. Who Namara versus Julian Liptagi via via Real

767
00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:21,359
Speaker 5: via via real Villa. Villas and Villa is minus one

768
00:35:21,440 --> 00:35:25,160
Speaker 5: of six, Wolverhampton three to one on the road. The

769
00:35:25,239 --> 00:35:30,080
Speaker 5: draw is plus two sixty BJ. You're the only one

770
00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:36,360
Speaker 5: with anything here and it's another one that it's just

771
00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:38,520
Speaker 5: a it's maybe the bet that you like to just

772
00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:41,920
Speaker 5: cozy up with it late at night and sleep with

773
00:35:42,040 --> 00:35:46,960
Speaker 5: like a teddy bear. That's that's this bet. Wolves. Both

774
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:47,800
Speaker 5: teams are score.

775
00:35:47,680 --> 00:35:49,560
Speaker 1: No yep, minus five.

776
00:35:50,160 --> 00:35:52,680
Speaker 2: I don't really care that Wolves is due for offensive

777
00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:56,799
Speaker 2: regret positive regression. Like, yeah, they've got ten goals off

778
00:35:56,840 --> 00:36:00,120
Speaker 2: of sixteen point nine expected, but they're averaging point eight

779
00:36:00,239 --> 00:36:03,200
Speaker 2: seven non pellingsped goals per ninety. They've created just three

780
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:06,160
Speaker 2: big scoring chances in their last eleven matches, and under

781
00:36:06,200 --> 00:36:08,759
Speaker 2: low Petaggy it's been the exact same story that was

782
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:11,920
Speaker 2: under Bruno Lodge. Like Wolves against United didn't take a

783
00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:15,680
Speaker 2: shot inside thirteen yards until stoppage time, Like they just

784
00:36:15,760 --> 00:36:18,120
Speaker 2: consistently are gonna take so many shots from outside the

785
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:20,160
Speaker 2: box and you're basically just betting on will one of

786
00:36:20,160 --> 00:36:22,759
Speaker 2: those shots actually go in? And Villa they are a

787
00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:25,480
Speaker 2: top eight defensive team by expected goals. They're only going

788
00:36:25,560 --> 00:36:27,759
Speaker 2: to improve under Una Emory. They just held Tottenham on

789
00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:30,880
Speaker 2: Sunday to point sixty six expected goals off of six shots.

790
00:36:31,120 --> 00:36:33,480
Speaker 2: They're a top six team at defending crosses. So I

791
00:36:33,520 --> 00:36:35,920
Speaker 2: don't really see a path to how Wolves is actually

792
00:36:35,960 --> 00:36:38,279
Speaker 2: going to score here or even create over one expected goal.

793
00:36:38,520 --> 00:36:40,200
Speaker 2: And the flip side of that is is, I mean,

794
00:36:40,239 --> 00:36:42,560
Speaker 2: Phvilla has been running really hot offensively under Emery, like

795
00:36:42,600 --> 00:36:44,239
Speaker 2: they've scored seven goals off of three and a half

796
00:36:44,320 --> 00:36:46,879
Speaker 2: expected and Wolf still is a top eight defensive team.

797
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:49,560
Speaker 2: So I think the price here is far, far too

798
00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:52,399
Speaker 2: cheap on both teams to score now. So I'm looking

799
00:36:52,480 --> 00:36:54,759
Speaker 2: forward to, you know, watching Villa score in like the

800
00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:57,839
Speaker 2: fifteenth minute and then have Wolves scoring like the eighty

801
00:36:57,920 --> 00:37:00,279
Speaker 2: ninth and just ruined me. But I do think there's

802
00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:02,200
Speaker 2: some value on it. So minus one oh five both

803
00:37:02,239 --> 00:37:03,960
Speaker 2: teams to score, no for me.

804
00:37:05,239 --> 00:37:11,839
Speaker 5: All right, now onto another headliner. Pallace home underdog plus

805
00:37:11,920 --> 00:37:15,680
Speaker 5: two twenty five Spurs plus one twenty on the road.

806
00:37:15,800 --> 00:37:18,120
Speaker 5: The draw is plus two forty Anthony.

807
00:37:18,880 --> 00:37:20,439
Speaker 2: I think, well, I think Todden them might be bad,

808
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:23,520
Speaker 2: Like I just I don't I think they might be

809
00:37:23,600 --> 00:37:25,960
Speaker 2: I don't know. I'm starting to come around to, hey,

810
00:37:26,040 --> 00:37:27,520
Speaker 2: they might not be that good, you know.

811
00:37:27,680 --> 00:37:30,560
Speaker 5: They they definitely didn't look at and they're just I

812
00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:33,440
Speaker 5: think we talked about it a little bit in the

813
00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:38,040
Speaker 5: last episode. There's much They're like an eye test team

814
00:37:38,040 --> 00:37:39,919
Speaker 5: where you can just watch a game like this team

815
00:37:40,040 --> 00:37:43,120
Speaker 5: is just they're not at the races. It it feels

816
00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:46,880
Speaker 5: like they've been at the races fifty percent of the season. Uh,

817
00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:51,160
Speaker 5: and we're now sixteen games in. I still think like

818
00:37:51,239 --> 00:37:54,719
Speaker 5: as an underdog against better teams, like they'll be worth

819
00:37:54,760 --> 00:37:59,160
Speaker 5: it when when you get good prices. But man, they

820
00:37:59,239 --> 00:38:01,400
Speaker 5: got they got more points to get to forty Anthony,

821
00:38:01,440 --> 00:38:02,799
Speaker 5: they better get there. Yeah.

822
00:38:02,840 --> 00:38:04,920
Speaker 3: I might even be out on them as an underdog nowadays,

823
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:06,560
Speaker 3: the way they play under pressure and the way they

824
00:38:06,600 --> 00:38:10,279
Speaker 3: retain the ball and connect the counter attacking situations, and

825
00:38:10,400 --> 00:38:13,160
Speaker 3: the fact that the reis is regretted, not regressing. He

826
00:38:13,239 --> 00:38:15,439
Speaker 3: might just be washed, except when he plays for France,

827
00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:19,319
Speaker 3: of course. But yeah, I mean this is hard because

828
00:38:19,360 --> 00:38:21,880
Speaker 3: the market is downgraded Tottenham significantly after the loss to

829
00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:25,720
Speaker 3: be Ta Villa, and even before that, Spurs were minus

830
00:38:25,760 --> 00:38:29,560
Speaker 3: one oh five here, minus one tennish. Then they had

831
00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:31,520
Speaker 3: the poor showing on Boxing Day and it moved to

832
00:38:31,680 --> 00:38:34,000
Speaker 3: plus one ten. Then they had the poor showing against

833
00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:35,440
Speaker 3: Villa and then moved to plus one twenty.

834
00:38:36,120 --> 00:38:37,960
Speaker 4: And now we just keep going lower and lower, and.

835
00:38:38,000 --> 00:38:40,360
Speaker 3: Now we're betting into a market that is clearly downgrading

836
00:38:40,360 --> 00:38:42,080
Speaker 3: Spurs and has them as like the seventh best team

837
00:38:42,080 --> 00:38:42,479
Speaker 3: in the league.

838
00:38:42,960 --> 00:38:46,640
Speaker 4: And to make matters worse, Palace.

839
00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:49,160
Speaker 3: Hasn't really been all that impressive this season either, and

840
00:38:49,200 --> 00:38:52,759
Speaker 3: I've downgraded them as well. So I'm actually going to

841
00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:55,320
Speaker 3: take us total here instead of a side, because I

842
00:38:55,440 --> 00:38:57,680
Speaker 3: do like the matchup of this Palace defense against this

843
00:38:57,760 --> 00:39:02,680
Speaker 3: Spurs attack. The Spurs attack, nobody can pass. The only

844
00:39:02,760 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 3: person who can pass for Tottenham is Harry Kane, and

845
00:39:07,280 --> 00:39:10,960
Speaker 3: Harry Kane, to quote Giselle from the Super Bowl loss,

846
00:39:12,120 --> 00:39:15,239
Speaker 3: you know, talking about Tom Brady. He cannot play the

847
00:39:15,320 --> 00:39:17,440
Speaker 3: pass and receive the pass and the penaltary at the

848
00:39:17,440 --> 00:39:21,399
Speaker 3: same time. And it's a big problem because you look

849
00:39:21,440 --> 00:39:24,160
Speaker 3: at the players that they're playing and they're not very

850
00:39:24,200 --> 00:39:27,399
Speaker 3: good at passing to him. And when you take out

851
00:39:27,880 --> 00:39:31,600
Speaker 3: like it makes me think back to last season. The

852
00:39:31,640 --> 00:39:34,800
Speaker 3: fullbacks were in really good form. Teams hadn't really adjusted

853
00:39:34,840 --> 00:39:38,800
Speaker 3: to Conte ball. Son was in insane finishing form and

854
00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:40,640
Speaker 3: he was in just better progressed like he was just

855
00:39:40,719 --> 00:39:44,120
Speaker 3: doing more to progress the ball and Kane like was

856
00:39:44,160 --> 00:39:47,279
Speaker 3: the benefactor of that and whatnot. So Spurs are really

857
00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:52,040
Speaker 3: really good, but Son regresses, the fullbacks aren't his dominant,

858
00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:54,480
Speaker 3: and there's nobody where they get the ball, and you're like,

859
00:39:55,320 --> 00:39:57,719
Speaker 3: that's the person who's going to beat the man, whether

860
00:39:57,760 --> 00:40:00,000
Speaker 3: it's like an ODA guard for Arsenal who's gonna play

861
00:40:00,120 --> 00:40:03,480
Speaker 3: the pass, or Fernandez or Rashford running at somebody, like,

862
00:40:03,560 --> 00:40:06,360
Speaker 3: there's just not that in Tottenham right now, and it

863
00:40:06,440 --> 00:40:07,960
Speaker 3: makes it very hard to break down a good low

864
00:40:08,040 --> 00:40:10,040
Speaker 3: defensive block, a team who's willing to sit off and

865
00:40:10,640 --> 00:40:13,120
Speaker 3: seed pressure and seed the ball to you. And we

866
00:40:13,200 --> 00:40:15,640
Speaker 3: even go to the match against Brentford, the only chances

867
00:40:15,719 --> 00:40:18,720
Speaker 3: came off just hoofing the ball forward and winning aerial duels.

868
00:40:18,800 --> 00:40:20,919
Speaker 3: So yeah, I like the under two and a half.

869
00:40:21,000 --> 00:40:23,399
Speaker 3: I looked at Spurs team total under one and a half.

870
00:40:23,600 --> 00:40:24,719
Speaker 4: I actually bet that today.

871
00:40:24,719 --> 00:40:27,720
Speaker 3: I was mad I didn't, but I think Spurs attack

872
00:40:27,760 --> 00:40:29,359
Speaker 3: has a problem here. They could win this one nil.

873
00:40:29,360 --> 00:40:31,879
Speaker 3: Wouldn't surprise me. The defense is not nearly as bad

874
00:40:31,960 --> 00:40:35,799
Speaker 3: as as the recent record has suggested. Teams have run

875
00:40:35,920 --> 00:40:40,960
Speaker 3: really well against Tottenham, especially early in games. But yeah,

876
00:40:41,000 --> 00:40:43,000
Speaker 3: I just I find it hard to believe Tottenham gets

877
00:40:43,000 --> 00:40:43,680
Speaker 3: more than one here.

878
00:40:43,960 --> 00:40:45,239
Speaker 4: So I'm going to go under two and a half.

879
00:40:46,080 --> 00:40:46,840
Speaker 1: I like Palace.

880
00:40:47,400 --> 00:40:50,160
Speaker 4: I think this is I don't blame anybody who bets.

881
00:40:51,680 --> 00:40:52,040
Speaker 1: Palace.

882
00:40:52,200 --> 00:40:53,480
Speaker 5: It's a good price to going because.

883
00:40:53,280 --> 00:40:54,279
Speaker 4: We don't know where the bottle is.

884
00:40:55,480 --> 00:40:56,279
Speaker 5: Yeah, we don't know.

885
00:40:56,640 --> 00:40:58,239
Speaker 4: Don't we're there? I didn't think we're there.

886
00:40:59,480 --> 00:41:01,960
Speaker 5: We also are dealing with a manager, Like there are

887
00:41:02,040 --> 00:41:05,560
Speaker 5: certain managers where when things start to spiral, they're just

888
00:41:05,640 --> 00:41:09,239
Speaker 5: not really stabilizers. Let's say, like, I wouldn't say that

889
00:41:09,400 --> 00:41:12,400
Speaker 5: that Antonio Conte is the type of manager I'd want

890
00:41:12,440 --> 00:41:15,360
Speaker 5: to bet on in this spot. I don't know.

891
00:41:16,640 --> 00:41:19,000
Speaker 3: I mean, he's last year, we had the same conversation,

892
00:41:19,120 --> 00:41:21,320
Speaker 3: remember like they lost a couple of games in January

893
00:41:21,360 --> 00:41:24,160
Speaker 3: and everybody was like, oh no, like he's already ready

894
00:41:24,200 --> 00:41:25,600
Speaker 3: to leave, and then they won like a in row

895
00:41:25,600 --> 00:41:26,080
Speaker 3: and got.

896
00:41:25,960 --> 00:41:27,440
Speaker 5: Some Yeah, but that was more about I think that

897
00:41:27,520 --> 00:41:30,160
Speaker 5: was more about like him like it because there were

898
00:41:30,239 --> 00:41:31,840
Speaker 5: rumors that he wanted to leave right away. This is

899
00:41:31,920 --> 00:41:34,719
Speaker 5: like more of like a team level thing. Like I

900
00:41:34,880 --> 00:41:38,080
Speaker 5: just don't I don't think he's He's just not the

901
00:41:38,160 --> 00:41:42,080
Speaker 5: type of manager that like I would trust in in

902
00:41:43,360 --> 00:41:46,719
Speaker 5: this kind of situation when he's been there for a

903
00:41:46,760 --> 00:41:50,319
Speaker 5: while already too write like that we know he puts

904
00:41:50,360 --> 00:41:52,680
Speaker 5: the team through the paces. They just come back from

905
00:41:52,680 --> 00:41:56,040
Speaker 5: the World Cup. A lot of them, you know you're

906
00:41:56,080 --> 00:42:02,120
Speaker 5: taking about Parisage and Kane like those guys had Son

907
00:42:02,440 --> 00:42:05,440
Speaker 5: like they just left it all out there. So it's

908
00:42:05,520 --> 00:42:07,960
Speaker 5: just like, I just don't know how you get up

909
00:42:08,000 --> 00:42:11,560
Speaker 5: on a on an individual level. Two them give your

910
00:42:11,640 --> 00:42:15,920
Speaker 5: all for this guy who who took away condiments from

911
00:42:16,000 --> 00:42:18,160
Speaker 5: you in the you know, the in the training camp

912
00:42:18,200 --> 00:42:20,800
Speaker 5: stuff like that. So I just it's it just feels

913
00:42:20,840 --> 00:42:22,279
Speaker 5: like like you I think you put it right, you

914
00:42:22,320 --> 00:42:24,640
Speaker 5: don't know where the bottom is. And with him at

915
00:42:24,680 --> 00:42:28,920
Speaker 5: the helm, like I questioned, I questioned, just how far

916
00:42:29,280 --> 00:42:32,320
Speaker 5: they can go before things start to turn around.

917
00:42:32,960 --> 00:42:35,239
Speaker 3: It's gotten so bad that Arsenal was like minus one

918
00:42:35,320 --> 00:42:39,560
Speaker 3: hundred and the derby at Arsenal and everybody and I

919
00:42:39,680 --> 00:42:43,000
Speaker 3: think B Jay said Arsenal was inflated, and uh, I.

920
00:42:43,000 --> 00:42:44,200
Speaker 1: Don't know that they were.

921
00:42:45,200 --> 00:42:47,759
Speaker 3: And now Arsenal's gonna be even money on the road

922
00:42:47,800 --> 00:42:50,239
Speaker 3: at White Hard Lane and I'm probably gonna have to bench.

923
00:42:50,680 --> 00:42:51,759
Speaker 4: So that's that's where we're at.

924
00:42:51,840 --> 00:42:55,480
Speaker 5: Now. I'm gonna be on Palace BJ. What are your

925
00:42:55,520 --> 00:42:56,000
Speaker 5: thoughts here?

926
00:42:56,120 --> 00:42:58,120
Speaker 2: No, I'm gonna be on I'm gonna be on Palace too,

927
00:42:58,239 --> 00:43:00,000
Speaker 2: you know our lovely uh sponsor.

928
00:43:00,040 --> 00:43:00,799
Speaker 1: There's bet three six'.

929
00:43:00,880 --> 00:43:03,520
Speaker 2: Five it keeps coming up on my twitter feed That

930
00:43:04,120 --> 00:43:07,080
Speaker 2: Maricio poachatino is two to one to manage A Premier

931
00:43:07,160 --> 00:43:08,520
Speaker 2: league club in twenty twenty.

932
00:43:08,560 --> 00:43:10,840
Speaker 1: Three so that should tell you where things are at right.

933
00:43:10,880 --> 00:43:15,200
Speaker 2: Now but uh, yeah the best era OF i mean

934
00:43:15,440 --> 00:43:18,360
Speaker 2: was so we're At west ten ten straight matches That

935
00:43:18,440 --> 00:43:21,040
Speaker 2: tottenham has conceded first my, my my correct run that

936
00:43:21,160 --> 00:43:23,399
Speaker 2: one it happened against. TODAY i think what you're seeing

937
00:43:23,480 --> 00:43:25,319
Speaker 2: is that Just tottenham was finishing at a crazy rate

938
00:43:25,840 --> 00:43:28,000
Speaker 2: throughout the beginning of the season and then it's kind

939
00:43:28,040 --> 00:43:31,000
Speaker 2: of just falling, off like they're around thirty three goals

940
00:43:31,040 --> 00:43:32,200
Speaker 2: off around twenty six and a half.

941
00:43:32,280 --> 00:43:32,920
Speaker 1: Expected so.

942
00:43:34,520 --> 00:43:36,560
Speaker 2: That finishing has gone, off and if you look through the,

943
00:43:36,640 --> 00:43:39,680
Speaker 2: injuries like it's not going to get any better offensively

944
00:43:39,719 --> 00:43:42,000
Speaker 2: with the Guys tottenham is, out like We're charleston's, out

945
00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:46,200
Speaker 2: Klu sevsky's, Out benton curR is. Out it's it's a

946
00:43:46,320 --> 00:43:49,320
Speaker 2: dicey situation Against, palace Who, yeah they haven't been that

947
00:43:49,400 --> 00:43:52,120
Speaker 2: great this, season but again they're still have been playing

948
00:43:52,160 --> 00:43:55,359
Speaker 2: pretty well against the against The big six at. Home

949
00:43:56,120 --> 00:43:58,880
Speaker 2: so this is just a Classic palace at, home who

950
00:43:58,920 --> 00:44:02,719
Speaker 2: played a lot better against. Both and what worries me,

951
00:44:02,840 --> 00:44:04,040
Speaker 2: though and you know WHAT i spoke about in the

952
00:44:04,120 --> 00:44:07,279
Speaker 2: last podcast is, that you, Know, palace we see. Them you,

953
00:44:07,320 --> 00:44:10,560
Speaker 2: know they're expected goals. Numbers, defensively they they're sitting around,

954
00:44:10,600 --> 00:44:12,520
Speaker 2: fifteenth fourteenth best in The Premier league and a lot

955
00:44:12,560 --> 00:44:14,560
Speaker 2: of that is just because they've conceded over two expected

956
00:44:14,600 --> 00:44:17,719
Speaker 2: goals to really good. Attacks, WELL i don't know if

957
00:44:17,760 --> 00:44:19,960
Speaker 2: we Put totten them in that category right. Now that's

958
00:44:20,000 --> 00:44:22,279
Speaker 2: the big. Question so we'll see what. Happens but, YEAH

959
00:44:22,360 --> 00:44:24,680
Speaker 2: i Like palace plus two twenty five and finally coming.

960
00:44:24,719 --> 00:44:28,320
Speaker 2: AROUND i don't think you, know you Know i've been on.

961
00:44:28,480 --> 00:44:30,440
Speaker 2: This you know the market Hates tott And, i'm oh my,

962
00:44:30,520 --> 00:44:32,799
Speaker 2: gosh like we have to buy. Low i'm not buying low.

963
00:44:32,800 --> 00:44:35,200
Speaker 2: Anymore i'm just gonna fade them and see if it works.

964
00:44:35,200 --> 00:44:37,400
Speaker 3: OUT i would argue we haven't even. REGRESSED i mean

965
00:44:37,440 --> 00:44:41,280
Speaker 3: we've been scoring goals off of. Nothing that piece is crazy.

966
00:44:41,320 --> 00:44:42,920
Speaker 3: STUFF i mean The bourne myth we can win comes to.

967
00:44:43,000 --> 00:44:46,280
Speaker 3: MIND i mean the to The brentford. Draw The leads

968
00:44:46,360 --> 00:44:49,759
Speaker 3: game was. Preposterous, EVER i think today was kind of The,

969
00:44:50,000 --> 00:44:51,359
Speaker 3: yeah that was the only game we played.

970
00:44:51,360 --> 00:44:54,800
Speaker 4: WELL i think today it was we were at the.

971
00:44:54,880 --> 00:44:58,080
Speaker 3: Race is that that's for? Sure that game and UH i, guess,

972
00:44:58,160 --> 00:44:59,400
Speaker 3: yeah we played well against Over.

973
00:44:59,480 --> 00:45:01,920
Speaker 4: Boy so, yeah it's been.

974
00:45:02,000 --> 00:45:03,799
Speaker 1: Nighted Is united a favorite for top four?

975
00:45:03,880 --> 00:45:06,040
Speaker 4: Now, yes as they should.

976
00:45:06,040 --> 00:45:07,400
Speaker 1: Be, yeah, no they should be.

977
00:45:07,920 --> 00:45:11,239
Speaker 5: All, right real, Quick SYRIA i is in play also

978
00:45:11,440 --> 00:45:13,160
Speaker 5: during the. MIDWEEK i will go to you.

979
00:45:13,360 --> 00:45:17,719
Speaker 2: FIRST Pj Josie morinho minus one plus one oh five

980
00:45:17,880 --> 00:45:20,800
Speaker 2: at home Against. Bologna roma is going to be a

981
00:45:20,880 --> 00:45:23,839
Speaker 2: big time positive regression candidate here over the second half

982
00:45:23,880 --> 00:45:26,880
Speaker 2: of the. Season plus sixteen point two expected gold Of

983
00:45:26,920 --> 00:45:29,799
Speaker 2: French so that's the exact same As, napoli who's in first.

984
00:45:29,800 --> 00:45:32,759
Speaker 2: Place But roma finds himself in. Seventh they've been just

985
00:45:32,880 --> 00:45:36,640
Speaker 2: running incredibly. Cold, offensively they're about twelve expected goals more

986
00:45:37,080 --> 00:45:40,600
Speaker 2: than their actual goal. Total bologna just a below average.

987
00:45:40,640 --> 00:45:43,399
Speaker 2: Team they got pasted right before the break Against center

988
00:45:43,800 --> 00:45:46,520
Speaker 2: allowed over two expected goals against, them allowed over two

989
00:45:46,560 --> 00:45:49,520
Speaker 2: and a half Against, napoli allowed close to two Against,

990
00:45:49,560 --> 00:45:53,000
Speaker 2: bolan allowed close to two Against. Juventus so when they

991
00:45:53,040 --> 00:45:54,880
Speaker 2: have to play good, competition they seem to, falter SO

992
00:45:55,280 --> 00:45:56,840
Speaker 2: i think you're going to find This roma team is

993
00:45:56,840 --> 00:45:58,880
Speaker 2: going to be, very very undervalued in the.

994
00:45:58,920 --> 00:45:59,719
Speaker 1: Market it is a look.

995
00:45:59,719 --> 00:46:02,000
Speaker 2: Aheads they do have a date WITH Ac milan on

996
00:46:02,040 --> 00:46:04,560
Speaker 2: the road four days from that, match but AGAIN i

997
00:46:04,640 --> 00:46:06,680
Speaker 2: think this is a good spot against the very below

998
00:46:06,800 --> 00:46:10,400
Speaker 2: Average bologna. Team So romo minus one plus one five.

999
00:46:10,239 --> 00:46:13,480
Speaker 5: For, Me, anthony what do you have In? Italy i'll

1000
00:46:13,480 --> 00:46:14,640
Speaker 5: Go torino under two and a.

1001
00:46:14,680 --> 00:46:18,560
Speaker 3: HALF i love Betting torino unders when they are playing

1002
00:46:18,880 --> 00:46:22,160
Speaker 3: as a favorite because they are so good at preventing

1003
00:46:22,200 --> 00:46:22,720
Speaker 3: big scoring.

1004
00:46:22,840 --> 00:46:25,480
Speaker 4: Chances the overall quality of the defense has declined this.

1005
00:46:25,560 --> 00:46:28,719
Speaker 3: Year they Lost, bremer but it's a classic example of

1006
00:46:28,840 --> 00:46:32,080
Speaker 3: manager and system over talent and how it can make

1007
00:46:32,200 --> 00:46:34,560
Speaker 3: up for a loss and talent to a certain. Extent

1008
00:46:35,320 --> 00:46:39,200
Speaker 3: And tarino continues to be a Solid syria defense and

1009
00:46:39,360 --> 00:46:43,120
Speaker 3: they are still a team that given their attacking. Losses

1010
00:46:43,320 --> 00:46:44,959
Speaker 3: what your complained about at the beginning of the season

1011
00:46:45,000 --> 00:46:47,040
Speaker 3: to the, board you, know we lost, attackers we didn't replace.

1012
00:46:47,080 --> 00:46:49,480
Speaker 3: Them they go up against A verona team who got

1013
00:46:49,640 --> 00:46:52,279
Speaker 3: raided because of financial iss who's in the, summer and

1014
00:46:52,520 --> 00:46:55,680
Speaker 3: their attack has been, really really poor this. Season and

1015
00:46:55,960 --> 00:46:58,319
Speaker 3: you know last season they finished really well because they

1016
00:46:58,360 --> 00:47:00,239
Speaker 3: had some players who were very good at that. Year

1017
00:47:00,239 --> 00:47:02,320
Speaker 3: they just don't have the talent up, front and so

1018
00:47:02,440 --> 00:47:06,320
Speaker 3: what you're seeing is an attack that has scored twelve.

1019
00:47:06,360 --> 00:47:08,920
Speaker 3: Goals and you could, say, yes the positive regression, thing

1020
00:47:09,280 --> 00:47:12,120
Speaker 3: and that is, true but the market isn't really like

1021
00:47:12,320 --> 00:47:14,040
Speaker 3: lowering their. TOTALS i, MEAN i expect two in a

1022
00:47:14,120 --> 00:47:16,080
Speaker 3: quarter here in two and a, half so, uh the

1023
00:47:16,200 --> 00:47:19,440
Speaker 3: under and their defense has has not been as bad

1024
00:47:19,440 --> 00:47:21,000
Speaker 3: as their numbers, either so under for.

1025
00:47:21,120 --> 00:47:25,000
Speaker 5: Me all, right let's get to our three like money line,

1026
00:47:25,080 --> 00:47:28,359
Speaker 5: underdog parlay. Anty let's go right back to. You you're

1027
00:47:28,400 --> 00:47:30,400
Speaker 5: you're picking one out of the. Championship.

1028
00:47:30,719 --> 00:47:32,440
Speaker 3: YEAH i feel like we're usually chomping at the bit

1029
00:47:32,520 --> 00:47:35,520
Speaker 3: to bet, underdogs and not necessarily just in THE prem

1030
00:47:35,600 --> 00:47:37,839
Speaker 3: but across the. Leagues AND i went through all twenty

1031
00:47:37,920 --> 00:47:40,040
Speaker 3: games in THE prem And syria and there was not

1032
00:47:40,200 --> 00:47:43,120
Speaker 3: one team THAT i was, like we gotta bet this.

1033
00:47:43,200 --> 00:47:44,560
Speaker 4: Underdog SO i was, like let me look a little,

1034
00:47:44,560 --> 00:47:45,759
Speaker 4: deeper AND i found.

1035
00:47:45,800 --> 00:47:50,719
Speaker 3: One swansea is Hosting burnley On monday in The championship and,

1036
00:47:50,840 --> 00:47:54,240
Speaker 3: Look burnley has been. AWESOME i LOVE i Love burnley

1037
00:47:54,320 --> 00:47:59,840
Speaker 3: and the revolution there into playing watchable and somewhat fun for.

1038
00:48:00,160 --> 00:48:05,000
Speaker 3: Ball under Manager Vincent company has been, incredible like they've,

1039
00:48:05,040 --> 00:48:07,680
Speaker 3: really you, know taken a step. Forward but they're sitting

1040
00:48:07,680 --> 00:48:11,239
Speaker 3: in first fifteen, wins eight, draws two. Losses but it's

1041
00:48:11,280 --> 00:48:15,720
Speaker 3: a difficult away day To swansea On monday And burnley

1042
00:48:15,760 --> 00:48:20,680
Speaker 3: has run so. HOT i mean they're running fifty percent

1043
00:48:20,800 --> 00:48:23,520
Speaker 3: above their expected goals and you get wonk your. Stuff

1044
00:48:23,560 --> 00:48:27,200
Speaker 3: in The championship the quality is lower and defending in

1045
00:48:27,239 --> 00:48:31,120
Speaker 3: the attacking finishing quality is, lower but you won't see

1046
00:48:31,160 --> 00:48:35,200
Speaker 3: that sustained anywhere. Anytime And swansea is the opposite of.

1047
00:48:35,280 --> 00:48:37,960
Speaker 3: THAT i mean they're sitting in the mid table with

1048
00:48:38,120 --> 00:48:41,920
Speaker 3: pretty impressive underline. Numbers they've just been extremely cold. Defensively

1049
00:48:42,040 --> 00:48:43,960
Speaker 3: so you, know you have A swansea team THAT i

1050
00:48:44,000 --> 00:48:46,680
Speaker 3: think is better than their. Numbers Russell martin and the

1051
00:48:46,760 --> 00:48:50,400
Speaker 3: boys have should be making a strong case for. Promotion

1052
00:48:50,560 --> 00:48:52,920
Speaker 3: they're not, quite but, YEAH i like them as a

1053
00:48:52,960 --> 00:48:56,520
Speaker 3: home underdog plus two, Hundred i'm Going.

1054
00:48:57,640 --> 00:49:01,040
Speaker 5: Newcastle they're plus three thirty three on the road At

1055
00:49:01,160 --> 00:49:06,440
Speaker 5: arsenal On tuesday two forty five Pm. Newcastle it's Between

1056
00:49:06,560 --> 00:49:09,960
Speaker 5: newcastle And. UNITED i think for right now the third

1057
00:49:10,040 --> 00:49:12,319
Speaker 5: best team in the, league Like, liverpool has been too.

1058
00:49:12,320 --> 00:49:16,400
Speaker 5: Inconsistent spurs are in the relegation fight, basically And chelsea

1059
00:49:16,480 --> 00:49:21,360
Speaker 5: are you, know mid comfortably a mid table. TEAM i

1060
00:49:21,480 --> 00:49:24,000
Speaker 5: just think that this number is a little disrespectful To

1061
00:49:24,200 --> 00:49:28,080
Speaker 5: newcastle team that is. Dangerous do you look back over

1062
00:49:28,120 --> 00:49:30,279
Speaker 5: the course of the, season the difference between these two

1063
00:49:30,320 --> 00:49:33,040
Speaker 5: teams Isn't when you look at the expectacle, differential it's

1064
00:49:33,440 --> 00:49:37,160
Speaker 5: it's not crazy wide at, all and Since october, first

1065
00:49:37,239 --> 00:49:40,520
Speaker 5: it's it's even. Tighter so This newcastle team can just

1066
00:49:40,560 --> 00:49:44,400
Speaker 5: they can play at this. Level they've lost one match all.

1067
00:49:44,480 --> 00:49:46,359
Speaker 5: SEASON i know they've drawn, seven but they've lost one

1068
00:49:46,400 --> 00:49:50,520
Speaker 5: match all. Season. BIJA i think that they'll Give arsenal

1069
00:49:50,640 --> 00:49:56,320
Speaker 5: a little bit of we'll see a scrap On tuesday

1070
00:49:56,320 --> 00:49:59,680
Speaker 5: afternoon at The, Emirates So i'll be backing The magpies

1071
00:49:59,719 --> 00:50:02,480
Speaker 5: that play three thirty three who is your.

1072
00:50:03,080 --> 00:50:07,240
Speaker 2: Pooch Crystal palace plus two twenty five at home Against.

1073
00:50:07,320 --> 00:50:10,440
Speaker 2: Tottenham we just spoke about, it BUT i am starting

1074
00:50:10,480 --> 00:50:13,520
Speaker 2: to come around to think That tottenham is completely broken

1075
00:50:13,719 --> 00:50:16,719
Speaker 2: and that there are some, real real flaws with. Them

1076
00:50:16,840 --> 00:50:18,879
Speaker 2: especially going, forward and it's not going to get any

1077
00:50:18,880 --> 00:50:23,040
Speaker 2: easier Without, richarlison Without, kusowski Without Benton. Kerr going Against

1078
00:50:23,080 --> 00:50:26,600
Speaker 2: Crystal palace team that consistently has played well against The

1079
00:50:26,680 --> 00:50:29,240
Speaker 2: big six at. HOME i like the price And Crystal

1080
00:50:29,280 --> 00:50:30,560
Speaker 2: palace give me them plus two twenty.

1081
00:50:30,600 --> 00:50:37,200
Speaker 5: Five uh That Parlay, Palace newcastle And swansea forty one to.

1082
00:50:37,280 --> 00:50:40,600
Speaker 5: One not our, biggest but feel good about this. One

1083
00:50:40,680 --> 00:50:42,440
Speaker 5: it is a good, ONE i think for a nice

1084
00:50:42,480 --> 00:50:45,399
Speaker 5: midweek pick me. Up, yep all, right let's talk about

1085
00:50:45,400 --> 00:50:47,800
Speaker 5: our favorite bets in The Premier league for this midweek.

1086
00:50:48,000 --> 00:50:50,839
Speaker 5: Action i'll go, FIRST. Pj you just talked about, him

1087
00:50:50,840 --> 00:50:53,200
Speaker 5: So i'll make it. QUICK i think is a great

1088
00:50:53,239 --> 00:50:55,360
Speaker 5: spot to Back Crystal. Palace they are coming off a

1089
00:50:55,440 --> 00:50:58,120
Speaker 5: win there plus two twenty five at home against A

1090
00:50:58,120 --> 00:51:01,239
Speaker 5: spurs team that they are just trending in the wrong.

1091
00:51:01,320 --> 00:51:03,880
Speaker 5: Direction this is much more a, BET i Guess spurs

1092
00:51:03,920 --> 00:51:05,200
Speaker 5: in a bet And. Palace but we know that This

1093
00:51:05,320 --> 00:51:07,879
Speaker 5: palace team tends to punch up really well at home

1094
00:51:08,080 --> 00:51:12,359
Speaker 5: Against big six. Teams the, defense it's well, organized they're

1095
00:51:12,400 --> 00:51:15,960
Speaker 5: tough to break down in, uh especially At Selhurst. Park

1096
00:51:16,040 --> 00:51:18,920
Speaker 5: SO i think that The spurs kind of spiral continues

1097
00:51:19,920 --> 00:51:22,600
Speaker 5: throughout the mid week and things get a little interesting

1098
00:51:23,120 --> 00:51:26,880
Speaker 5: For Antonio conte at White Hart lane or The Tottenham

1099
00:51:26,880 --> 00:51:30,359
Speaker 5: Hotspur STADIUM. Bj what's your favorite.

1100
00:51:30,040 --> 00:51:34,359
Speaker 2: Bet arsenal minus one twenty five Against newcastle at? Home

1101
00:51:34,480 --> 00:51:37,319
Speaker 2: arsenal is a perfect seven ozho to oher at home

1102
00:51:37,400 --> 00:51:40,200
Speaker 2: plus eleven point six expected gold differential only about five

1103
00:51:40,239 --> 00:51:43,600
Speaker 2: point nine expected goals in those seven. Matches newcastle's big

1104
00:51:43,680 --> 00:51:45,880
Speaker 2: home road split. Team they're a little over plus eleven

1105
00:51:46,280 --> 00:51:48,319
Speaker 2: expect a gold diferential at. Home they're only around plus

1106
00:51:48,400 --> 00:51:51,160
Speaker 2: two on the. Road What arsenal did such a good

1107
00:51:51,239 --> 00:51:53,640
Speaker 2: job of Against brighton was their counter. Pressing they four

1108
00:51:53,719 --> 00:51:55,960
Speaker 2: six high. Turnovers the first goal came off of a high.

1109
00:51:56,000 --> 00:51:59,400
Speaker 2: Turnover If newcastle does have one, weakness it's that they

1110
00:51:59,400 --> 00:52:01,720
Speaker 2: don't play through pressure. Well their twelfth in offensive passes

1111
00:52:01,760 --> 00:52:04,200
Speaker 2: per defensive action and When arsenal has done such a

1112
00:52:04,239 --> 00:52:06,759
Speaker 2: good job tactically As, Grandis shock has been getting forward

1113
00:52:06,800 --> 00:52:09,279
Speaker 2: a lot, more which has Allowed Martin odegard to roam

1114
00:52:09,320 --> 00:52:11,160
Speaker 2: as the number ten role and they've cared a lot

1115
00:52:11,160 --> 00:52:14,080
Speaker 2: of overloads on the wide flank with soccer And Martin

1116
00:52:14,120 --> 00:52:16,680
Speaker 2: elliott's why you've seen them get so much space down the,

1117
00:52:16,719 --> 00:52:18,759
Speaker 2: wings they should be able to do that with a

1118
00:52:18,800 --> 00:52:21,399
Speaker 2: lot of success Against. Newcastle Kieran tripier not a great

1119
00:52:21,400 --> 00:52:24,000
Speaker 2: defender as a right. Back Matt target is going to

1120
00:52:24,040 --> 00:52:26,319
Speaker 2: miss this match due to, injury So newcastle is gonna

1121
00:52:26,320 --> 00:52:28,160
Speaker 2: be very weak on the left side of the pitch

1122
00:52:28,200 --> 00:52:31,759
Speaker 2: as well against Against. Soka SO i love this spot

1123
00:52:31,800 --> 00:52:34,520
Speaker 2: here For. Arsenal i've been projected minus one forty, three

1124
00:52:34,560 --> 00:52:35,680
Speaker 2: so give me the minus one twenty.

1125
00:52:35,760 --> 00:52:38,640
Speaker 5: Five on the money, Line, anthony what's your favorite?

1126
00:52:38,640 --> 00:52:41,080
Speaker 4: Bet all is right in the. World bja is betting On.

1127
00:52:41,239 --> 00:52:43,360
Speaker 3: Arsenal i'm betting Against, spurs But i'm betting against the

1128
00:52:43,400 --> 00:52:46,640
Speaker 3: attacks in both of these Matches Crystal palace And spurs

1129
00:52:46,760 --> 00:52:49,799
Speaker 3: under two and a half minus one. TEN i think

1130
00:52:49,880 --> 00:52:53,239
Speaker 3: That spurs attack it hasn't fully regressed, yet BUT i

1131
00:52:53,280 --> 00:52:55,319
Speaker 3: think you're starting to see why it's starting to, break

1132
00:52:55,360 --> 00:52:57,439
Speaker 3: and it's so not being quite as good in ballve.

1133
00:52:57,440 --> 00:52:59,719
Speaker 3: Progression they don't have enough passing, quality they're not getting

1134
00:52:59,760 --> 00:53:02,080
Speaker 3: into the penalty area, enough and they just lacked that

1135
00:53:02,160 --> 00:53:04,839
Speaker 3: sharpness and creativity from the wings that they had last.

1136
00:53:04,880 --> 00:53:07,600
Speaker 3: Season as teams have tactically adjusted to What kante wanted

1137
00:53:07,640 --> 00:53:09,640
Speaker 3: to do and really took the league by storm last.

1138
00:53:09,680 --> 00:53:12,680
Speaker 4: Year, MEANWHILE i Think spurs defense is not as. BAD

1139
00:53:12,800 --> 00:53:14,680
Speaker 4: i think The spurs defense is.

1140
00:53:14,680 --> 00:53:19,280
Speaker 3: A unit that will, improve at least in the, results

1141
00:53:19,560 --> 00:53:22,400
Speaker 3: because the underlying performances haven't been that. Bad they've just

1142
00:53:22,560 --> 00:53:25,799
Speaker 3: conceded a lot of kind of goals from nothing and weird,

1143
00:53:25,840 --> 00:53:29,200
Speaker 3: flukes and they've conceded way above their expected, goals which

1144
00:53:29,400 --> 00:53:31,200
Speaker 3: even if you Think larise is, aging it isn't as

1145
00:53:31,239 --> 00:53:33,359
Speaker 3: good of a shot. Stopper he won't be as bad

1146
00:53:33,400 --> 00:53:35,520
Speaker 3: as he's been in the last few, weeks as evidenced

1147
00:53:35,560 --> 00:53:37,920
Speaker 3: by the first goal today Against, villa which was almost

1148
00:53:38,040 --> 00:53:41,399
Speaker 3: entirely on. Him but, YES i think That palace will

1149
00:53:41,400 --> 00:53:43,399
Speaker 3: struggle to create chances in this. MATCH i do think

1150
00:53:43,400 --> 00:53:45,200
Speaker 3: it's kind of a bit of a stalemate And palace

1151
00:53:45,280 --> 00:53:48,640
Speaker 3: will be able, to similar To, villa kind of just

1152
00:53:48,719 --> 00:53:50,320
Speaker 3: sit there and dare tot them to beat them and

1153
00:53:50,360 --> 00:53:52,480
Speaker 3: be organized, defensively AND i don't know That totten can

1154
00:53:52,520 --> 00:53:54,160
Speaker 3: do it right, Now so give me under two and a.

1155
00:53:54,120 --> 00:53:55,200
Speaker 4: Half all?

1156
00:53:55,280 --> 00:53:58,600
Speaker 5: Right that does it for this midweek episode Of WONDERFUL

1157
00:53:58,800 --> 00:54:01,800
Speaker 5: pj kund of him For Antidy bundo good luck with

1158
00:54:01,960 --> 00:54:03,279
Speaker 5: all your soccer bets this.

1159
00:54:03,440 --> 00:54:14,440
Speaker 4: Week Action network reminds you please gamble.

1160
00:54:14,520 --> 00:54:18,000
Speaker 3: Responsibly if you or someone you care about has a gambling,

1161
00:54:18,040 --> 00:54:21,160
Speaker 3: problem help is available twenty four to seven at one

1162
00:54:21,200 --> 00:54:22,160
Speaker 3: eight Hundred gambler