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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named best betting podcast or radio

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Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

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Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go, throwing out job spectacular.

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Speaker 3: We're setting it to cash. We'll see most gamblers when

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Speaker 3: they go to gamble, they go to win. God, that's incredible.

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Speaker 4: Big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 5: I like to make money.

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Speaker 6: All right, this is the ultimate kabine you want to pull,

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Speaker 6: and we are underway.

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Speaker 3: We made it.

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Speaker 7: Welcome everybody to the wild Card weekend edition of the

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Speaker 7: Action Network NFL Betting Podcast. I'm your host, Chris Raybond,

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Speaker 7: Me and my co host Stucky will be breaking down

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Speaker 7: each of the games and we'll do our Sunday six

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Speaker 7: pack with picks from each game.

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Speaker 3: The prime is Degenerate Nation.

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Speaker 7: Stuck thought I could make up some ground on you

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Speaker 7: last week swept a six pack. Of course, I look

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Speaker 7: up and you swept the six pack as well. Good stuff.

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Speaker 7: Still got your wead? How was your week seventeen?

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Speaker 3: And uh what do you? What are your thoughts heading

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Speaker 3: into the Wildcard round?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, it's a quick, clean sweep. It's been a really

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Speaker 5: good week in month. I'm hoping to have like a

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Speaker 5: losing day in college basketball, not really, but I wouldn't

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Speaker 5: hate it if I do have one before the weekend,

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Speaker 5: because I don't want all this progression to crash. Salmon.

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Speaker 5: During the NFL playoffs, woll more money, we could have

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Speaker 5: swept our totals. You got absolutely full smashed. Yeah, that's

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Speaker 5: fourth and that game goes over. And then even with

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Speaker 5: my over, I had the the Eagles Washington over and

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Speaker 5: which looked really good at halftime. I thought it was

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Speaker 5: going to get there. That was seventeen to fourteen at

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Speaker 5: the half for at over forty three, and then the

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Speaker 5: Eagles decided to tank. They wanted to see I guess

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Speaker 5: if Nate Sudfeld is their franchise quarterback. So in the

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Speaker 5: process they ruined the over in the Giants season, I.

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Speaker 7: Mean, I gotta, I gotta get your thoughts on this,

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Speaker 7: like before we even get into this, because this is

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Speaker 7: you know, everyone's talking about.

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Speaker 3: It, Like what did you think of just the Eagles

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Speaker 3: move in general?

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Speaker 5: It was sad to watch, but they're trying to get

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Speaker 5: a better draft pick, and what do they really care

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Speaker 5: who goes and it's like the Giants were six and ten.

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Speaker 5: I get it that it sucked. To watch. But and

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Speaker 5: I get what the Eagles were doing. But the one

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Speaker 5: thing that I hate about it is that kissed me

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Speaker 5: off the most was that the dunk Peterson came out

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Speaker 5: after the game city was coaching to win, Like, that's

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Speaker 5: clearly not sure at least if you're gonna do that,

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Speaker 5: own it, own what you did and come out and say, look,

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Speaker 5: we're gonna get a better draft pick. This is better

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Speaker 5: for the organization long term. We're gonna move up three

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Speaker 5: spots in the draft. But yeah, at the end of

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Speaker 5: the day, I've moved on. We have a awesome while

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Speaker 5: car weekend, two triple headers in a row for the

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Speaker 5: first time ever in the NFL playoff history, and if

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Speaker 5: all the favorites hold, and look, we had a lot

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Speaker 5: to talk about, and these games are awesome for all

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Speaker 5: the favorite favorites hold, like Raven's Chiefs, Steelers, Bills, Bucks, Packers, Saints, Seahawks.

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Speaker 5: Next week, I mean face some good games coming up.

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Speaker 5: I can't. I don't want to spend any more time

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Speaker 5: talking about the NFC East, although we're gonna have to

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Speaker 5: talk about Washington Air.

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Speaker 4: A little bit.

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Speaker 7: I just thought it was kind of interesting that you

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Speaker 7: had on the same day you had Justin Jefferson break

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Speaker 7: the receiving record for rookies and they played jaywen Rager

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Speaker 7: I think less than any of the other five receivers

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Speaker 7: that were active did Philadelphia.

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Speaker 3: He gets one catch and then they pulled Jay when

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Speaker 3: hurt too.

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Speaker 7: I mean, clearly is their future franchise starting quarterback, Like

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Speaker 7: they can't go back to Wents and Subfeld, we know

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Speaker 7: what he is.

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Speaker 3: Like that was I agree, we just own it.

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Speaker 7: But I just thought that was kind of ironic that

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Speaker 7: you're trying to move up three spot after you path

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Speaker 7: on you just completely blow your first rounder and then

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Speaker 7: kind of look back into your luxury second round pick

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Speaker 7: becoming you know, a potential franchise quarterback and you decide

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Speaker 7: to pull him when honestly you need to give him

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Speaker 7: reps like that's the guy you need to right.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So I just thought that was ironic. But you're right.

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Speaker 7: We have a great slate, so we won't spend any

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Speaker 7: time any more time on NFC East for our contest.

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Speaker 7: We will do two points per pick this week and

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Speaker 7: going forward, And a couple of reminders before we get

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Speaker 7: into the six pack. Number one, if you plan a

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Speaker 7: bet on the NFL this season, and you haven't downloaded

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Speaker 7: the free award winning Action Network app.

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Speaker 3: What are you doing?

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Speaker 7: It's got betting tools, analysis for myself, Stucky in the

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Speaker 7: whole Action Network team, and it lets you track every

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Speaker 7: bet that you make to go. Download that in your

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Speaker 7: app store wherever you get your apps on your phone.

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Speaker 7: It's great app. We put all our picks in their

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Speaker 7: check it out number two. If you want a chance

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Speaker 7: at a free Vegas vacation.

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Speaker 3: You're two.

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Speaker 7: Eight. Our custom weekly DFS contest, the Action Pods Tournament

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Speaker 7: of Champions presented by bet MGM is now and it's

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Speaker 7: highly anticipated wild Card weekend Grand Finale. Big thank you

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Speaker 7: to everyone who participated. Good luck to all of our

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Speaker 7: finalists at number three. A quick programming note about the podcast.

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Speaker 7: Stuck and I will continue our NFL betting episodes every

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Speaker 7: Thursday until the end of the season.

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Speaker 3: If the world is still in order. Of course, we will.

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Speaker 7: Still have the NFL Fantasy Flex Show with Me, Matthew

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Speaker 7: Friedman and Showan Corner, and our PGA Tour betting previews

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Speaker 7: every Tuesday. Plus you have Matt Moore and Raheem Palmer

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Speaker 7: doing our Wednesday NBA Buffet show and of course Stucky

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Speaker 7: and Colin Wilson's College football and National Championship preview drops

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Speaker 7: this Friday. And if you're getting excited for college basketball

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Speaker 7: and I know you are stuck, College hoops episodes rezume next.

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Speaker 3: Friday, January fifteenth.

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Speaker 7: We appreciate everyone who's listened to the show this season,

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Speaker 7: and to show our appreciation, if you go to Twitter

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Speaker 7: right now and follow at Action podcasts, our producer Matt

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Speaker 7: Mitchell will send three new followers and Action Network hoodie

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Speaker 7: so you can be entered in that. Just go follow

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Speaker 7: Action Podcast as a thank you, three hoodies up for grabs.

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Speaker 7: All right, let's get into the Sunday six pack of

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Speaker 7: the twenty twenty season wild Card weekend.

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Speaker 3: Let's do it.

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Speaker 1: There's stay for action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 7: All right, So, as mentioned, we are gonna go two

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Speaker 7: points each for each pick here with the abbreviated slate.

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Speaker 7: As it turns out, we actually have a pick for

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Speaker 7: each game. Doubt I'm gonna catch you. You still have a

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Speaker 7: forty nine thirty nine lead. We both clean swept with

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Speaker 7: six packs, so that was good to see for the listeners.

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Speaker 3: Hope you guys, enjoyed final week of the regular season.

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Speaker 7: Let's get into the wild card and my first pick

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Speaker 7: for the wild Card weekend six pack is also the

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Speaker 7: first bet I made, and that is the Pittsburgh Steelers.

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Speaker 7: We're currently six point favorites at BETMGM, the official outs

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Speaker 7: provider of the podcast. This game taking place Sunday eight

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Speaker 7: to fifteen Eastern. And the reason I like the Steelers

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Speaker 7: I liked them when I saw the opening line, which

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Speaker 7: was around four at most books. I think it got

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Speaker 7: down to three and a half before all the news,

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Speaker 7: which I'll get to, but just before I get into

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Speaker 7: the COVID situation and Stefanski being out. Just to matchup,

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Speaker 7: and I think I've talked about this back in Pittsburgh

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Speaker 7: earlier this year at home against Cleveland, but Pittsburgh just

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Speaker 7: matches up well with Cleveland because Pittsburgh can get pressure.

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Speaker 3: On the quarterback.

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Speaker 7: You know, even with some of the defensive injuries, they

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Speaker 7: still finished the year number one overall and pressure rate

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Speaker 7: thirty two point two percent. That was way ahead of

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Speaker 7: the second best team in terms of generating pressure, the Bucks,

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Speaker 7: who are at.

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Speaker 3: Twenty six point seven. Just a massive lead.

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Speaker 7: So even when you factor in you know some of

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Speaker 7: the injuries and how that will affect the overall scheme.

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Speaker 7: Pittsburgh still should be able to get some pressure on

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Speaker 7: Baker Mayfield here, you do have some, and then of

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Speaker 7: course you have you know, Joe Batonio on that COVID list,

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Speaker 7: so you have some and Harris as well, looks like

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Speaker 7: he's gonna miss. So you have some injuries on the

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Speaker 7: offensive line for Cleveland. Baker Mayfield forty seven point seven

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Speaker 7: passer rating under pressure this year, thirty third of forty two.

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Speaker 3: Qualifiers according to Pro Football Focus.

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Speaker 7: Baker Mayfield forty three point seven percent completion rate under

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Speaker 7: pressure this year, thirty fourth of forty two qualifiers according

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Speaker 7: to PFF. And then on top of that, you factor

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Speaker 7: in Kevin Stefanski, the head coach, who did a great

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Speaker 7: job this year, admitted, you know, with a relatively easy schedule,

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Speaker 7: Cleveland still finishes with a negative point differential, but you know, still.

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Speaker 5: Eleven wins a negative eleven and they.

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Speaker 3: Know what they had to do. Though, like I'm not

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Speaker 3: I'm not gonna.

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Speaker 7: Knock Stefanski for that, but that that that is another reason.

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Speaker 3: Why I do like the Pittsburgh Steelers.

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Speaker 7: In this spot is because you also have that, you know,

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Speaker 7: kind of hanging over their heads. You know, first easy

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Speaker 7: of a schedule is Pittsburgh faced Cleveland faced, you know,

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Speaker 7: a pretty shaky schedule themselves, and yet they finished with

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Speaker 7: a negative eleven point differential despite going eleven and five.

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Speaker 7: Pittsburgh finishes with a plus one oh four point differential

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Speaker 7: at twelve and four. And then I just look at

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Speaker 7: how these teams finished out the year. And Pittsburgh obviously

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Speaker 7: went through some things, you know, down the stretch and

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Speaker 7: and their offense finally got exposed, and I think we

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Speaker 7: both thought that it would, you know, and they kind

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Speaker 7: of ride of the ship against Indianapolis, and then they

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Speaker 7: play very competitively against Cleveland. Was hoping that they could

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Speaker 7: actually pull off the upset there, but they did cover

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Speaker 7: the big spread with Mason Rudolph throws for over three

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Speaker 7: hundre fifteen yards.

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Speaker 3: But I think the reason you worry about.

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Speaker 7: Cleveland even before the COVID situations is just how this

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Speaker 7: team finished the year. Out you had, you had a

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Speaker 7: spot against Baltimore, you know, you had the great spot

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Speaker 7: against Tennessee, who you come out, you know, just blazing

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Speaker 7: in the first half and end up beating them, forty

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Speaker 7: one to thirty five. But then you give up forty

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Speaker 7: seven points to Baltimore in a game that probably should

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Speaker 7: have won. You only score twenty on the Giants, they

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Speaker 7: only score six. They're playing with Cote McCoy, so okay, whatever,

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Speaker 7: But then you lose to the Jets. You know, even

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Speaker 7: with no receivers, I mean you throw the ball fifty

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Speaker 7: one times, you still find a way to lose to

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Speaker 7: the Jets by seven points. And then against the Steeler

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Speaker 7: team that you know, did play some of their guys,

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Speaker 7: but rested a lot of key guys and had some

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Speaker 7: guys out with injury as well, you know, Joe Hayden, obviously,

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Speaker 7: Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Hayward was rested. So just not a

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Speaker 7: full strength Pittsburgh team by any means. And you escape

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Speaker 7: with a twenty four to twenty two victory, and you

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Speaker 7: get out gained by the Mason Rudolph led Pittsburgh offense

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Speaker 7: three ninety four to three fifty eight. A week after

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Speaker 7: you get out gained by the Jets three thirty three

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Speaker 7: to two ninety nine.

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Speaker 3: Now, say what you want about.

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Speaker 7: The receivers, but Cleveland's still one of the least receiver

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Speaker 7: dependent teams in the league. So just just a concern

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Speaker 7: for me how they're playing down the stretch and then

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Speaker 7: you know, practice is canceled and you know, just a

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Speaker 7: lot of upheaval going on with this team. And I

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Speaker 7: think for a team that's kind of inexperience or not

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Speaker 7: kind of that is inexperienced in terms of the postseason,

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Speaker 7: and you know, a franchise that hasn't made it in

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Speaker 7: a while, and a quarterback that's going to make his

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Speaker 7: first postseason start in a place that's tough to play,

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Speaker 7: you know, even I think with the you know, the

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Speaker 7: no fans and all that just a really tough spot

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Speaker 7: to go. Now, beat Pittsburgh two weeks in a row

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Speaker 7: without in this case, with Pittsburgh playing a lot closer

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Speaker 7: to full strength, struggling down the stretch without your head coach.

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Speaker 7: I just think it's a tough spot for Cleveland, who

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Speaker 7: didn't match.

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Speaker 3: Up well with this team anyway.

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Speaker 7: So give me Pittsburgh at minus six right now is

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Speaker 7: re record at Ben MGM.

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Speaker 5: Apologies to your bet, but I part of me does

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Speaker 5: just want to see Cody Park. You have to attempt

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Speaker 5: a game winning field goal on the tough end of

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Speaker 5: the field, at Heines. I mean, yeah, this is I

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Speaker 5: was talking with Mike when I went to the Browns

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Speaker 5: Ravens game. By the way, your Baltimore Ravens lead the

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Speaker 5: NFL and point defferential the When I went on to

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Speaker 5: visit my friends with Cleveland, I told them the two

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Speaker 5: teams you really don't want to face in the AFC

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Speaker 5: are the teams in your division, Like the Browns just

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Speaker 5: don't match up well with the Ravens or Steers, two

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Speaker 5: teams that get a lot of pressure, and they don't

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Speaker 5: match up with well with defending Baltimore's offensive attack. This year,

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Speaker 5: they would have they they won a game again, they

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Speaker 5: got blown out by Pittsburgh, and then they won a

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Speaker 5: game when Pittsburgh didn't care. And they've lost seventeen straight

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Speaker 5: in Heinz Field before last week, which was a pretty

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Speaker 5: crazy stat. I'm going to disagree with you hesitantly and

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Speaker 5: the reason I say that, and look, you make a

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Speaker 5: lot of good points. Qbs making their first postseason start

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Speaker 5: in the NFL since two thousand and two against quarterbacks

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Speaker 5: who already have postseason start and obviously Ben Roethlisberger's plenty

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Speaker 5: thirteen thirty two and one against the spread in the

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Speaker 5: past eighteen years, and the numbers are very ugly from

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Speaker 5: a production standpoint. Look, I made this line around like,

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Speaker 5: I'm just low on the Steelers team, mainly their offense.

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Speaker 5: Their defense is banged up, they still have injuries at linebacker.

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Speaker 5: Teams were able to run on them a little bit

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Speaker 5: more down the stretch than they usually are. So Potonio

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Speaker 5: does hurt, but maybe the Browns can run it a

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Speaker 5: little bit. I made this line on I made this

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Speaker 5: line around three and a half, so it opened up

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Speaker 5: three and a half, one up to four and a half,

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Speaker 5: and I was like, car, maybe I could talk myself

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Speaker 5: and Bret. And then obviously you have all this news

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Speaker 5: with COVID and like there's lack of practice, there's all

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Speaker 5: of their coaches are out. I don't know how to

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Speaker 5: quantify that, to be honest, So I told myself, I

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Speaker 5: get like seven or definitely above seven just from looking

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Speaker 5: at the market. I don't think that's necessarily gonna come.

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Speaker 5: I'd look at the Browns. I can't trust them under seven.

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Speaker 5: We don't really have many data boyds with this. I

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Speaker 5: mean a team doesn't have It's like Stefanski has been

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Speaker 5: amazing for the Browns too, So what does who's calling

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Speaker 5: places now?

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Speaker 7: Van Pelt As of now, it looks like that, But

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Speaker 7: I mean, I'm not even confident in saying, you know, really,

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Speaker 7: you know, with the way it's kind of the outbreak

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Speaker 7: has gone, and we've seen this with Baltimore early in

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Speaker 7: the year.

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Speaker 3: You know, we don't know what could happen for the

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Speaker 3: rest of the week.

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Speaker 7: Now, there were no more positives as of today as

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Speaker 7: a Wednesday, But yeah, it would be vampell but we

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Speaker 7: we did, and yeah, we don't have a large sample.

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Speaker 5: We have a lion Lion, Yeah, but they're the lines,

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Speaker 5: but that one and it's one game sample size. But

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Speaker 5: that was awful. Now this day have a little more

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Speaker 5: time to repair here. But yeah, that's it's definitely a concern.

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Speaker 5: Baker Mayfield's lack of postseason experience is a concern. The

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Speaker 5: Steelers getting pressure. We know Mayfield, Mayfield and Golfer are

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Speaker 5: simple creatures. You get pressure on them, they fold. If

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Speaker 5: they can work within their system and get their handheld,

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Speaker 5: have a clean pocket above average NFL quarterbacks in those situations.

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Speaker 5: But the Steelers, as you said, get a ton of pressure.

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Speaker 5: So it just seems that everyone has forgotten that the

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Speaker 5: Steelers are kind of a fraud. They've had one good

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Speaker 5: half against the Colts where and I was on them,

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Speaker 5: they got a bunch of generous calls. The Colts switched

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Speaker 5: up their defense in the second half the series, had

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Speaker 5: a couple deep shots, but other than that, I mean,

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Speaker 5: what did the Steelers do down the show? I mean,

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Speaker 5: they did nothing, And this offense is still very full.

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Speaker 5: Now the one hope you have, and I've been screaming this,

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Speaker 5: the Steelers can't run the ball at all. They can't

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Speaker 5: run against anybody, and they've been so relying on these

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Speaker 5: work passes, short pass and that's just hard to sustain

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Speaker 5: drives doing that. But the most important game of their

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Speaker 5: season against the Colts, they finally started to take shots downfield.

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Speaker 5: So if you're a Steelers fan, if you're a Steelers backer,

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Speaker 5: you would hope that that's what they're gonna do more of,

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Speaker 5: get the ball down field to chase Claypool and company

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Speaker 5: and take shots. Because this round's defense is no good.

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Speaker 5: This secondary can be exploited. So yeah, I don't I

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Speaker 5: make the line three and a half. But after the

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Speaker 5: coke like with oh not not after the COVID I

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Speaker 5: just don't know. I know that I know that it's

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Speaker 5: all worth a lot, so I've adjusted to like four

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Speaker 5: and a half five up, but it could be seven,

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Speaker 5: it could be eight. So it's a pure stay away

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Speaker 5: for me. I could talk myself on to the Browns

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Speaker 5: if this line jumped us like seven and a half,

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Speaker 5: just because I mean taking a NFL underdog catching more

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Speaker 5: than seven, I will always, almost almost always look at them.

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Speaker 5: Unless they have Mitch Wortles the quarterback. We'll get that.

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Speaker 5: So yeah, I don't necessarily disagree with you. I just

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Speaker 5: have trouble quantifying how much all this is worth. I

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Speaker 5: know it's worth something in it. My God has told

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Speaker 5: me it's worth a lot.

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Speaker 7: I will say, just to close off, I agree that

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Speaker 7: the Steelers have been super fraudulent, Like I wrote a

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Speaker 7: whole article about it. I was banging this drum when

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Speaker 7: they were undefeated and looking like they were going to

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Speaker 7: cruise perhaps an undefeated season, but I mean the Browns.

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Speaker 7: In Week six, the Steelers at home against Cleveland, the

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Speaker 7: Steelers are five and other.

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Speaker 3: The Browns are four and two at the time.

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Speaker 7: Steeers closed its three point favorites at home against Cleveland,

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Speaker 7: and they won thirty eight to seven. Now that was

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Speaker 7: when the Steelers were healthier. The Browns were banged up,

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Speaker 7: as they will be in this game.

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Speaker 3: But then you had last.

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Speaker 7: Week the Steelers close nine and a half point underdogs.

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Speaker 7: I believe it was maybe it was ten at some books,

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Speaker 7: but then they hang in there and they come a

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Speaker 7: two point conversion away from tying the game in regulation.

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Speaker 7: So it just kind of shows you that this is

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Speaker 7: a tough matchup for the Browns period, like before you

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Speaker 7: factor and everything.

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Speaker 3: So I actually had this at six before.

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Speaker 7: The COVID, and I was I think I was the

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Speaker 7: highest expert on the Steelers at action. And that's with

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Speaker 7: me not really giving much respect to the Steelers, but

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Speaker 7: I just think the matchup is really tough for Cleveland.

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Speaker 8: Here we win the game with this crool bodies right

364
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Speaker 8: here today, run Yaly game to day.

365
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Speaker 5: Right enough, all right? For my first pick of the

366
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Speaker 5: NFL Wildcard six pack, I'm going with the Los Angeles

367
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Speaker 5: Rams Seattle Seahawks under forty two and a half at

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Speaker 5: at MGM. See if you could find a forty three

369
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Speaker 5: if you follow me on the app, I was able

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Speaker 5: to grab. I played some under first half too. Look,

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Speaker 5: there's there are some unknowns with this game as well well.

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Speaker 5: B Jared Golf, I actually think it will be I

373
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Speaker 5: can tell you I also played the Rams. If you

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Speaker 5: can get above a field goal, I prefer for or better.

375
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Speaker 5: I would take a shot in the Rams out speculative

376
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Speaker 5: because I make this line like one ish if Off

377
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Speaker 5: plays and he's fully healthy. My assumption now for Wolford

378
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Speaker 5: is like four three and a half or four points.

379
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Speaker 5: He got to start under his belt, he's a little mobile,

380
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Speaker 5: He's still an undrafted player that got his first start

381
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Speaker 5: last week, so it's about four point, so I would

382
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Speaker 5: make this not closer to like five if he doesn't play.

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Speaker 5: So I'm kind of speculating here that I think Golf

384
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Speaker 5: will play from things that I've read. Maybe they could

385
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Speaker 5: get Whitworth back to That would be a bump at tackle.

386
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Speaker 5: Jamal Adams for Seattle, he's questionable game time decision, so

387
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Speaker 5: there's a lot of uncertainty year with some key players.

388
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Speaker 5: But look, we this is just I just think this

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Speaker 5: is a dream under matchup this The Seattle Seahawks have

390
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Speaker 5: been just an under dream the last eight weeks of

391
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Speaker 5: this season. They really should have went under in their

392
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Speaker 5: last eight games. If not for that ridiculous it was

393
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Speaker 5: nine to six going into the fourth quarter. I'm going

394
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Speaker 5: back to the under train on Seattle. They they're now

395
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Speaker 5: starting to just run the ball a lot more. They're

396
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Speaker 5: not as explosive on offense. Their defense is playing better

397
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Speaker 5: because it's gotten healthier. I mean, look, they had they

398
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Speaker 5: only had ten sacks in the first seven games of

399
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Speaker 5: the year. They had thirty six the final nine. That's

400
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Speaker 5: the most in the league. The Seahawks. You know, they're

401
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Speaker 5: actually getting a little more pressure. So if it is golf,

402
00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:18,200
Speaker 5: they can get to golf. And only Drew Locke has

403
00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:22,080
Speaker 5: been worse the difference between under pressure and kept clean

404
00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:25,840
Speaker 5: than Jared Goff. But I still think if Golf plays,

405
00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:28,080
Speaker 5: is not gonna be one hundred percent healthy, or if

406
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Speaker 5: Wolford plays regardless, I think Sean mcfay is going heavy

407
00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:33,520
Speaker 5: run attack here. He's gonna lean on his running game

408
00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:37,160
Speaker 5: because he can lean on his defense. I think that's

409
00:20:37,359 --> 00:20:39,680
Speaker 5: so he's gonna go really conservative. I think on offense,

410
00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:43,160
Speaker 5: very conservative throws and the way that he really beat

411
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Speaker 5: the Seattle defense his explosive passes and downfield, that's not

412
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Speaker 5: gonna be It's not the Rams game anyway, and I

413
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Speaker 5: don't think it's gonna be the Rams game this weekend.

414
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Speaker 5: On the other side of the field, the Rams defense

415
00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:58,359
Speaker 5: is just bawling out of control. I mean, Brandon Staley

416
00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:01,720
Speaker 5: has been amazing. I mean, they're mixing up their own

417
00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:04,159
Speaker 5: defenses as well as I've ever seen any team in

418
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Speaker 5: the NFL do. They also obviously can get pressure, especially

419
00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:11,520
Speaker 5: if the middle with Aaron Donald. They're first in EPA

420
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Speaker 5: per pass. They're first in explosive passes thirty six, explosive

421
00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:19,480
Speaker 5: passway rate thirty six passes of twenty plus yards all

422
00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:24,320
Speaker 5: year allowed thirty six, tied with Washington for fewest in

423
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Speaker 5: the league. First, and yards per at tempt the only

424
00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:29,800
Speaker 5: team allowing under five yards per tentph first and yards

425
00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:33,840
Speaker 5: per game. You have three corners in Williams, Hill and Ramsey,

426
00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:37,959
Speaker 5: all rank in the top twenty five per PFF corner grades.

427
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Speaker 5: The defense is just amazing. They can take away anything

428
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Speaker 5: Russell Wilson wants to do downfield. They're great against the run.

429
00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:49,840
Speaker 5: Look the first Russell Wilson, I think had one touchdown

430
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Speaker 5: in two picks in two games, and like close to

431
00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:55,080
Speaker 5: four hundred yards total passing. He didn't do much against

432
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Speaker 5: his defense in both games. Rams could take away everything deep.

433
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Speaker 5: They're gonna play a ton of zone coverages and it's

434
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Speaker 5: kind of and I think Seattle's gonna go conservative. The

435
00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:10,320
Speaker 5: Rams are gonna go conservative. I think this is a close,

436
00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:13,680
Speaker 5: low scoring game. The total points score to both their

437
00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:17,680
Speaker 5: matchups this year twenty nine and thirty nine. I make

438
00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:21,520
Speaker 5: this forty. I think this is like a twenty to

439
00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:25,480
Speaker 5: seventeen game at most. This one could be really ugly.

440
00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:28,680
Speaker 5: Obviously you could have some turnovers, but Russell doesn't really

441
00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:31,560
Speaker 5: turn it over in general. He's up there in NFL

442
00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:34,920
Speaker 5: history as far as low interception rate. And I think

443
00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:37,639
Speaker 5: the Rams are just gonna run it rely on that defense,

444
00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:39,800
Speaker 5: and I think this is gonna be a slug fest.

445
00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:43,280
Speaker 5: So give me the under and as my first pick.

446
00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:45,800
Speaker 5: And I also like the Rams anything above a field

447
00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:47,840
Speaker 5: goal especially and the golf is gonna play. And if

448
00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:49,560
Speaker 5: he does play, this thing will come down. If he's

449
00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:52,680
Speaker 5: announced in, this will come down probably below a field goal. Seattle'

450
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:55,400
Speaker 5: Z line, by the way, thirtieth and adjustin sacerate Rams

451
00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:58,200
Speaker 5: second on d so they're gonna get pressure, pressure on

452
00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:01,080
Speaker 5: Russe and their back end is playing as well as

453
00:23:01,119 --> 00:23:04,440
Speaker 5: any secondary in the league, so I don't see Seattle's

454
00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:06,920
Speaker 5: offense doing much. I don't think the Rams offense, which

455
00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:08,280
Speaker 5: is going to go super conservative, is going to be

456
00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:10,960
Speaker 5: able to explete the vulnerabilities of the Seattle defense. So

457
00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:11,800
Speaker 5: give me the under.

458
00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:15,439
Speaker 7: Would you advise waiting, since right now I think the

459
00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:19,320
Speaker 7: assumption is GoF is kind of questionable to doubtful.

460
00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:20,560
Speaker 3: It's at forty two and a half.

461
00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:22,160
Speaker 7: Do you think it will get to that forty three

462
00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:24,760
Speaker 7: or even higher as the week progresses.

463
00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:28,399
Speaker 5: Yeah, if he's announced in, then I think that you

464
00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:31,560
Speaker 5: could see the total tick up, but then you would

465
00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:35,400
Speaker 5: see the RAMS tick down. So I have positions in both.

466
00:23:35,440 --> 00:23:37,520
Speaker 5: It's just sort of like hedging it away. But I

467
00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:41,720
Speaker 5: still think that if GoF is in, he still is

468
00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:44,040
Speaker 5: a hurt thumb. I still don't think he can do

469
00:23:44,160 --> 00:23:47,399
Speaker 5: much against the Seattle defense, and they're still going to

470
00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:50,159
Speaker 5: go super conservative. I still think they're gonna go run heavy.

471
00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:53,040
Speaker 5: I think they're gonna rely on their defense. So if

472
00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:55,520
Speaker 5: you wait, you're gonna get You might get a little

473
00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:58,720
Speaker 5: a tad better number on the under, but you would

474
00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:01,760
Speaker 5: lose You lose your value probably on the Rams, which

475
00:24:01,760 --> 00:24:04,680
Speaker 5: will come down, and I think that's more important getting

476
00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:06,480
Speaker 5: over a field goal if he's in. But it's a

477
00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:09,199
Speaker 5: guessing game. I'm guessing from things that I've looked at

478
00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:10,040
Speaker 5: that he's gonna play.

479
00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:12,919
Speaker 3: So we'll say, yeah, I can't argue with you.

480
00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:14,719
Speaker 7: I mean, I have it projected at forty three right

481
00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:17,240
Speaker 7: now with kind of a mix of like a fifty

482
00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:21,520
Speaker 7: to fifty Goff Wolford split. But the Seahawks unders are

483
00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:25,160
Speaker 7: nine to four since the start of October, going under

484
00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:29,200
Speaker 7: by an average of two point nine per game. So

485
00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:31,879
Speaker 7: there's definitely a lot of wigger room here. And I

486
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:36,840
Speaker 7: agree the Seattle Seahawks on offense, their early down pass

487
00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:40,560
Speaker 7: rate decreased about six percent over the second half of

488
00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:42,840
Speaker 7: the season compared to the first half, which is major.

489
00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:45,600
Speaker 7: You're talking about going from kind of a league average

490
00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:51,240
Speaker 7: about sixty percent down to the low fifties on early downs.

491
00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 7: That's a that's a huge decrease. So yeah, I can't

492
00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:56,560
Speaker 7: argue with that one. And Russell Wilson in the wildcard round,

493
00:24:56,640 --> 00:25:00,640
Speaker 7: just historically the under is four and one, so that's

494
00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 7: another small sample trend.

495
00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:04,480
Speaker 3: But working in your favorite.

496
00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:06,800
Speaker 2: Hope you're enjoying this great action Network podcast. I want

497
00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:09,000
Speaker 2: to make sure you know about the locked On podcast

498
00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:12,399
Speaker 2: network locked On as a daily podcast on your favorite team.

499
00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:14,239
Speaker 5: Welcome to you, Lockdown forty nine ers.

500
00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:16,480
Speaker 3: You are Lockdown of the Dallas marriage. Well came everybody for.

501
00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:17,760
Speaker 5: The Lockdown Lakers podcast.

502
00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:18,560
Speaker 3: Let's go.

503
00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:21,760
Speaker 2: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

504
00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 2: know your team better than anyone and give you the

505
00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:26,840
Speaker 2: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search

506
00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:31,359
Speaker 2: locked on your favorite team. Subscribe to your locked On podcast.

507
00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 7: For the number three pick of the wild card six pack,

508
00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:43,800
Speaker 7: my second pick overall, I will go with the Chicago

509
00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:48,960
Speaker 7: Bears New Orleans Saints under forty seven and a half

510
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:54,320
Speaker 7: at BETMGM. And the reason I like this under is

511
00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:58,240
Speaker 7: you look at the Saints and they're a top defense.

512
00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:04,720
Speaker 7: They finished the year number two in DVOA on defense,

513
00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:08,080
Speaker 7: their number two and weighted DVOA from week ten on,

514
00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:12,480
Speaker 7: they're number one in pass defense DVOA. And you look

515
00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:15,159
Speaker 7: at the Bears and I think they're getting some credit

516
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:19,240
Speaker 7: for what Mitch Trubisky did when he took back over.

517
00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:22,800
Speaker 7: The Bear scored twenty five, thirty thirty six, thirty three,

518
00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:26,680
Speaker 7: forty one and then sixteen to close out the year.

519
00:26:27,359 --> 00:26:30,640
Speaker 7: They also scored twenty seven against Detroit.

520
00:26:30,359 --> 00:26:32,680
Speaker 3: An opening day. He tried.

521
00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:36,800
Speaker 7: Thirty in Atlanta in a game that he got benched,

522
00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:40,000
Speaker 7: So they've been pretty a pretty high scoring team against Trubisky.

523
00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 7: But you look at who the Bears have played in

524
00:26:42,840 --> 00:26:46,080
Speaker 7: those starts, and four of Mitch Trubisky starts this year

525
00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:49,920
Speaker 7: two against Detroit, one against Houston, won against Jacksonville. They've

526
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:53,679
Speaker 7: come against bottom three defenses, so he's got four starts

527
00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:56,960
Speaker 7: against bottom three defenses in DVOA. They averaged thirty three

528
00:26:56,960 --> 00:27:00,280
Speaker 7: and a half points per game in those in those games,

529
00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:02,760
Speaker 7: and then you look at what they did in some.

530
00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:06,359
Speaker 3: Of the tougher matchup. They faced one team that was

531
00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:10,520
Speaker 3: above average in defensive DVOA and Mitch Trubisky's starts this year.

532
00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:14,160
Speaker 3: That was the Atlanta Falcons, who finished the year fourteenth.

533
00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:16,320
Speaker 3: That was the game Trubisky got benched.

534
00:27:16,720 --> 00:27:20,600
Speaker 7: They faced the Giants, who ranked nineteenth, and they scored

535
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:25,200
Speaker 7: only seventeen points. And then Minnesota finished eighteenth on the year,

536
00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:28,360
Speaker 7: which probably gives them a little too much credit. They

537
00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:31,320
Speaker 7: were pretty banged up wait in the year, and the

538
00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:33,080
Speaker 7: Bears did put up thirty three on them, but then

539
00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:36,480
Speaker 7: they faced Green Bay, who's seventeenth, and they score only

540
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:40,880
Speaker 7: sixteen points. So against kind of average ish defenses, non

541
00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:44,200
Speaker 7: bottom three defenses, you have one game where you get benched,

542
00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:47,520
Speaker 7: you have another where you score only sixteen points, you

543
00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:51,080
Speaker 7: have another where you score seventeen points, and then you

544
00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:54,720
Speaker 7: have one good game, really and that's where you put

545
00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:58,800
Speaker 7: up you know, thirty three. So I don't trust in

546
00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:01,760
Speaker 7: this Bears offense to do more much against the Saints,

547
00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:03,040
Speaker 7: who finished number two in d.

548
00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:03,440
Speaker 5: V O A.

549
00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 7: Trubisky's average up to target seven point four is lower

550
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:10,960
Speaker 7: than Nick Foles's, which was eight point oh. So you

551
00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:13,639
Speaker 7: have that would rank twenty fifth among all teams. And

552
00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:15,800
Speaker 7: then you have Breeze on the other side. His average

553
00:28:15,840 --> 00:28:18,680
Speaker 7: depth of target is six point zero, which would rank

554
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:21,760
Speaker 7: thirty second, dead last among all teams. On the other side,

555
00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:25,800
Speaker 7: you do have Jaywen Johnson practicing for Chicago. He was

556
00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:28,480
Speaker 7: he's been out the past few weeks, which has contributed

557
00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:31,520
Speaker 7: to a fall off of their defense. They could still

558
00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:34,440
Speaker 7: defend the pass a lot better if he's in there

559
00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:38,600
Speaker 7: along with Fuller, so and we kind of saw that,

560
00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:41,719
Speaker 7: you know, they can, they'll have they can they can

561
00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:46,800
Speaker 7: kind of shut down you know, one receiver with if

562
00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:49,920
Speaker 7: they have kind of a knocked a blessed and full

563
00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:53,320
Speaker 7: strength cornerback group, if they have Jalen Johnson back, I

564
00:28:53,360 --> 00:28:56,120
Speaker 7: think that improved in that buster screen. Still not practicing

565
00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:59,080
Speaker 7: in the concussion protocol, so that that could play a part.

566
00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:00,880
Speaker 7: But you have New Orleans just a lot of moving

567
00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:04,680
Speaker 7: parts still Alvin Kamara, you know, the first day he's

568
00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:07,840
Speaker 7: eligible to come off the COVID list. You have Michael

569
00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:11,600
Speaker 7: Thomas presumably coming back off the injured reserve, but this

570
00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:13,080
Speaker 7: would be his first game back.

571
00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:15,480
Speaker 3: Is he fully healthy, We don't know.

572
00:29:16,120 --> 00:29:20,000
Speaker 7: Traycon Smith is still out, Deontay Harris their returnment still out.

573
00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:22,720
Speaker 7: So you have you know, this New Orleans team that

574
00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:26,120
Speaker 7: throws the ball underneath they're best players.

575
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:27,840
Speaker 3: You know, we don't even know if Kamara.

576
00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:30,280
Speaker 7: You know, COVID can have some effects, so we don't

577
00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:31,960
Speaker 7: even know if Kamara is going to be at full

578
00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:35,960
Speaker 7: strength if he plays. And then you also have you know,

579
00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:40,320
Speaker 7: both of these teams are extremely slow paced on offense.

580
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:46,400
Speaker 7: The New Orleans Saints rank twenty eighth in situation neutral

581
00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:50,040
Speaker 7: pace thirty one point five to four seconds per between plays.

582
00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:52,240
Speaker 7: And then the Chicago Bears ranked one spot better at

583
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:55,120
Speaker 7: twenty seventh. So you have two bottom six teams in

584
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:59,840
Speaker 7: situation neutral pace, you have a Chicago defense at the

585
00:29:59,880 --> 00:30:02,720
Speaker 7: get healthier in New Orleans offense that we don't we

586
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:06,080
Speaker 7: can't guarantee is at full health. And domes in the

587
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:09,160
Speaker 7: postseason because I think you know, people mostly expect lower

588
00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:12,080
Speaker 7: scoring games in the postseason, which generally is true, but

589
00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:15,480
Speaker 7: in domes that hasn't necessarily been the case.

590
00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:18,960
Speaker 3: We've seen postseason dome overs.

591
00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:21,480
Speaker 7: With a total of above forty five go twenty nine

592
00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:25,280
Speaker 7: to twelve since two thousand and three towards the over. However,

593
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:27,680
Speaker 7: in the last three games in the Super Dome, after

594
00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:30,600
Speaker 7: starting five and oh towards the over, these Saints have

595
00:30:30,680 --> 00:30:34,520
Speaker 7: gone three and towards the under. So you had the

596
00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:38,280
Speaker 7: Saints Vikings last season twenty six twenty the total was fifty.

597
00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 7: You had Rams Saints the year before that in the

598
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:46,200
Speaker 7: infamous game where they got robbed, the total was fifty

599
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:48,520
Speaker 7: five twenty six to twenty three, So that goes under

600
00:30:48,560 --> 00:30:51,880
Speaker 7: by six. And then in that same postseason the week

601
00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:55,520
Speaker 7: before you had a total of fifty two for Saints Eagles,

602
00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:58,120
Speaker 7: and that game was a twenty to fourteen game, and

603
00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:01,680
Speaker 7: all those games took place in this modern era of

604
00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:04,240
Speaker 7: the Saints offense with breeze, you know, not going downfield

605
00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:06,200
Speaker 7: as much, Michael Thomas as.

606
00:31:06,040 --> 00:31:09,360
Speaker 3: The main main receiver, Camara is the main back. But

607
00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:10,280
Speaker 3: you didn't have though.

608
00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:12,040
Speaker 7: It was a Saints defense that was quite as good.

609
00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:14,560
Speaker 7: None of those defenses were you know, top two in

610
00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:17,120
Speaker 7: the league. So I don't expect the Bears to do much.

611
00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:20,760
Speaker 7: This is a ten point spread. I don't think they'll

612
00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:23,280
Speaker 7: do on offense. And when you haven't under you're looking

613
00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:25,240
Speaker 7: for a lot of times, what you're looking for is

614
00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:27,520
Speaker 7: if you can get it, it's just one team to

615
00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:29,440
Speaker 7: drastically underperform expectations.

616
00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:31,120
Speaker 3: I think the Bears are at risk of doing that here.

617
00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:33,480
Speaker 7: So give me under forty seven and a half for

618
00:31:33,600 --> 00:31:36,240
Speaker 7: Saints Bears.

619
00:31:37,320 --> 00:31:41,160
Speaker 8: Okay, as sure, I'm sure where the Bears are gounder dogs,

620
00:31:41,160 --> 00:31:43,760
Speaker 8: but don't count them up. You know, it's absurd, really

621
00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:46,280
Speaker 8: that we would even have to waste our time comparing

622
00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:48,520
Speaker 8: ourselves with that crime ridden rat hole.

623
00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:51,200
Speaker 5: Absolutely yeah, if you put a gun on it, I

624
00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:53,200
Speaker 5: guess I would agree with you. I had no strong

625
00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:56,240
Speaker 5: feel in the total I wanted to fade the Bears here.

626
00:31:57,440 --> 00:31:59,600
Speaker 5: I mean I just fit the line like eight point

627
00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:02,880
Speaker 5: eight round nine, and then you do have an uncertainty

628
00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:05,960
Speaker 5: with Thomas and Kamara. But I do think the Saints

629
00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:09,320
Speaker 5: are a safe moneyline parlay piece if you really like

630
00:32:09,400 --> 00:32:13,400
Speaker 5: something like the Ravens. I personally moneyline parlay the Ravens

631
00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:17,360
Speaker 5: and the Saints just to get the Ravens down. The Bears. Look,

632
00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:21,200
Speaker 5: Mitch t Bisky plays well against the worst defenses in

633
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:24,960
Speaker 5: the NFL, It's what he does. But against good defenses,

634
00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:29,960
Speaker 5: he's still horrible. Even against an average defense in Green Bay.

635
00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:32,680
Speaker 5: I mean, what do you have two walls?

636
00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:33,040
Speaker 4: He threw.

637
00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:36,280
Speaker 5: I tweeted out the sprat the road chart two balls downfield,

638
00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 5: Like all he's been doing is check just check down,

639
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:42,480
Speaker 5: Charlie Bears on the road. They played three playoff teams

640
00:32:42,520 --> 00:32:45,520
Speaker 5: on the road this year. They were alling three against

641
00:32:45,520 --> 00:32:49,200
Speaker 5: the spread. They lost by an average of twelve point

642
00:32:49,280 --> 00:32:52,560
Speaker 5: seven points per game, but that's very misleading. They had

643
00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:56,680
Speaker 5: a bunch of garbage time touchdowns. Average deficit in those

644
00:32:56,720 --> 00:33:00,680
Speaker 5: games over twenty four points, So yeah, there Bears up

645
00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:04,600
Speaker 5: some injuries on defense the Saints. Right now, I have

646
00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:08,840
Speaker 5: the Saints power rated as the second best team in

647
00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:13,160
Speaker 5: the NFL assuming full health, the Chiefs won the Saints too,

648
00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:17,520
Speaker 5: and then not far behind at all is the Ravens

649
00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 5: Bills Packers. I have the Saints right now currently power

650
00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:24,200
Speaker 5: aided better than the Packers on a neutral field, and

651
00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:27,080
Speaker 5: I actually don't think that they'll mind going up to LAMBA.

652
00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:30,440
Speaker 5: I've talked about this before if they get there, so

653
00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:33,800
Speaker 5: I have my true odds are they're Super Bowl of

654
00:33:33,960 --> 00:33:36,560
Speaker 5: the Saints winning the Super Bowls like plus five hundred, you

655
00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:39,520
Speaker 5: can get them plus seven to fifty, So I think

656
00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:42,320
Speaker 5: that's worth a bet on the Saints to win the

657
00:33:42,320 --> 00:33:43,560
Speaker 5: Super Bowl. I think they win. I think it's a

658
00:33:43,560 --> 00:33:46,440
Speaker 5: good money on the parlay piece. No value on the

659
00:33:47,560 --> 00:33:49,360
Speaker 5: side of you make some good points on the total.

660
00:33:50,040 --> 00:33:52,960
Speaker 5: Nih lady and gentlemen, is when you all can sing

661
00:33:53,040 --> 00:34:07,240
Speaker 5: with us with the Saints go marching in. For my

662
00:34:08,080 --> 00:34:12,800
Speaker 5: fourth pick of the wild Card weekend six pack, I'm

663
00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:19,720
Speaker 5: going with the Washington football team plus eight at Ben MGM.

664
00:34:20,200 --> 00:34:22,319
Speaker 5: By the way, we've only had an NFL history the

665
00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:27,080
Speaker 5: two teams that have been home dogs of seven or

666
00:34:27,080 --> 00:34:31,440
Speaker 5: more points, both one outright Tim Tebow even one outright

667
00:34:31,520 --> 00:34:34,920
Speaker 5: in this situation against the Steelers of your call with

668
00:34:35,200 --> 00:34:39,560
Speaker 5: the Broncos. But look, I make this line under a

669
00:34:39,560 --> 00:34:42,960
Speaker 5: touchdown five to eight, five to seven around there, So

670
00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:47,239
Speaker 5: obviously getting over a touchdown here is very intriguing. And

671
00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:49,360
Speaker 5: there's some things I do like about now. The Washington

672
00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:52,319
Speaker 5: offense is horrific. It's one of the worst offenses in

673
00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:54,920
Speaker 5: the history of the NFL to make the playoffs, one

674
00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:58,160
Speaker 5: of the worst offenses in the league this year. And

675
00:34:58,200 --> 00:34:59,719
Speaker 5: I think that they're going to really struggle to score

676
00:34:59,719 --> 00:35:01,400
Speaker 5: a point. I think it's going to be a low

677
00:35:01,640 --> 00:35:04,799
Speaker 5: scoring game. I like the first half under and the

678
00:35:04,840 --> 00:35:08,080
Speaker 5: game under as well. But I think that you know,

679
00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:12,560
Speaker 5: our Gibson and McLaurin healthier Alex Smith and Heineke, they're

680
00:35:12,600 --> 00:35:15,920
Speaker 5: going to maybe rotate time a quarterback, so that's something

681
00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:16,719
Speaker 5: to keep an eye on to.

682
00:35:17,640 --> 00:35:21,840
Speaker 1: This is going to be awful, But and look.

683
00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:23,600
Speaker 5: I mean, I think Washington has to really just run

684
00:35:23,640 --> 00:35:26,279
Speaker 5: the ball to stay in this game. They're not going

685
00:35:26,280 --> 00:35:28,319
Speaker 5: to get a lock downfield. I know Carlton Davis has

686
00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:30,319
Speaker 5: been banged out for Tampa. They still have Dean out

687
00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:32,719
Speaker 5: there to match up with McLaurin. So the Bucks, like

688
00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:34,759
Speaker 5: they always do, will stack the box, will take away

689
00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:37,520
Speaker 5: the run and I don't see, you know, and they've

690
00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:41,000
Speaker 5: been a little vulnerable against deep passing over the last

691
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:42,480
Speaker 5: six or seven weeks. I don't think that's a big

692
00:35:42,640 --> 00:35:44,839
Speaker 5: you know, the really worry about Washington's passing attack here.

693
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:48,000
Speaker 5: So Washington is going to struggle to score. But not

694
00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:52,319
Speaker 5: only is it after Brady's bedtime, it is a primetime game.

695
00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:56,840
Speaker 5: But Brady this year has been really good. If you

696
00:35:56,880 --> 00:36:01,279
Speaker 5: look at the advanced metrics, his arm still there, but

697
00:36:01,800 --> 00:36:06,319
Speaker 5: almost all of Tampa's offense is like downfield passing, and

698
00:36:06,360 --> 00:36:08,680
Speaker 5: he's throwing it downfield as much as any quarterback in

699
00:36:08,680 --> 00:36:12,560
Speaker 5: the NFL. I already mentioned Washington doesn't give up deep passes.

700
00:36:12,600 --> 00:36:15,759
Speaker 5: Their corners are playing really well. I mean, Fuller is

701
00:36:15,760 --> 00:36:18,640
Speaker 5: playing outstanding. You know, Moreland has really come on on

702
00:36:18,680 --> 00:36:22,919
Speaker 5: the slot. Their secondary obviously benefits from the pressure that

703
00:36:23,960 --> 00:36:26,640
Speaker 5: their defensive line gets. They might have one of, if

704
00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:30,160
Speaker 5: not the best defensive lines in the NFL. And if

705
00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:32,840
Speaker 5: Brady and he hasn't really had a short passing attack

706
00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:35,759
Speaker 5: this year, and the running game has been mad, so

707
00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:38,600
Speaker 5: I think it's gonna be tough sledding for the Bucks

708
00:36:38,600 --> 00:36:40,959
Speaker 5: here as well. Brady verus Top ten defenses this year

709
00:36:41,239 --> 00:36:44,839
Speaker 5: oh four Brady Verse top ten defenses in pressure rate,

710
00:36:45,320 --> 00:36:50,280
Speaker 5: Washington's number two two and two seven touchdowns, five picks,

711
00:36:50,400 --> 00:36:54,120
Speaker 5: six point seven yards per attempt against all other teams

712
00:36:55,360 --> 00:37:00,399
Speaker 5: thirty three touchdowns, seven interceptions, eight yards per attempt. It's

713
00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:04,319
Speaker 5: just a glaring difference. It's the story of Brady's career.

714
00:37:04,360 --> 00:37:07,040
Speaker 5: If you can get pressure on him, especially in this

715
00:37:07,200 --> 00:37:12,120
Speaker 5: offense right like this is this it before Brady could

716
00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:15,360
Speaker 5: just check down, check down, he could throw to his

717
00:37:15,520 --> 00:37:18,120
Speaker 5: back here, throw to this back here doesn't really have

718
00:37:18,200 --> 00:37:21,440
Speaker 5: that luxury here. So if you can get pressure and

719
00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:24,600
Speaker 5: take away the time that he has and really hit

720
00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:26,399
Speaker 5: him and take away the time he has to get

721
00:37:26,440 --> 00:37:28,640
Speaker 5: down field. By the way, Mike Evans might not play

722
00:37:28,640 --> 00:37:32,640
Speaker 5: as well, it's really going to disrupt the Temple offense.

723
00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:35,000
Speaker 5: So I think this line is too high. I think

724
00:37:35,040 --> 00:37:37,160
Speaker 5: it's going to be really low scoring, which gives me

725
00:37:37,200 --> 00:37:40,719
Speaker 5: even more value, makes points even more at a premium.

726
00:37:40,840 --> 00:37:43,920
Speaker 5: So I'll gladly take the eight here. You hope that

727
00:37:43,960 --> 00:37:46,480
Speaker 5: it doesn't get away, Washing doesn't turn it over and

728
00:37:46,520 --> 00:37:49,640
Speaker 5: they get a big deficit, because that'll really make things tough.

729
00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:53,320
Speaker 5: But I'll go with Washington here's my second pick. Also

730
00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:55,400
Speaker 5: like the under and first half under.

731
00:37:57,239 --> 00:38:00,399
Speaker 7: Yeah, I actually like the under a little bit more.

732
00:38:00,760 --> 00:38:03,680
Speaker 7: I contemplated taking them as as my total this week.

733
00:38:04,040 --> 00:38:06,439
Speaker 7: I do make the line around eight. I'm I'm worried

734
00:38:06,480 --> 00:38:09,600
Speaker 7: about Washington's offense. You know, if they kind of get

735
00:38:09,680 --> 00:38:13,640
Speaker 7: into a situation where they get behind, it's it is

736
00:38:13,680 --> 00:38:16,000
Speaker 7: going to be tough against Tampa.

737
00:38:16,120 --> 00:38:16,760
Speaker 3: I think Tampa.

738
00:38:17,640 --> 00:38:20,279
Speaker 7: It is worrisome though with Tampa because you have seen,

739
00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:23,000
Speaker 7: as you mentioned, like they've just blown out some really

740
00:38:23,000 --> 00:38:25,560
Speaker 7: bad teams, kind of like Chicago has, and you know,

741
00:38:25,600 --> 00:38:27,359
Speaker 7: they put up some huge point totals and then yeah,

742
00:38:27,400 --> 00:38:30,719
Speaker 7: they have struggled against good defenses. Washington is number two

743
00:38:30,719 --> 00:38:32,640
Speaker 7: in d v o A against the short pass. You know,

744
00:38:32,719 --> 00:38:34,920
Speaker 7: as you mentioned that that can hurt Tampa Bay because

745
00:38:35,320 --> 00:38:38,440
Speaker 7: it kind of creates variants. They are seventeenth in deep

746
00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:41,840
Speaker 7: ball DVA. That's over fifteen yards in terms of d

747
00:38:41,920 --> 00:38:44,560
Speaker 7: v o A. So there are there will be opportunities.

748
00:38:44,560 --> 00:38:47,120
Speaker 7: I think Evans. If Evans is less than one hundred percent,

749
00:38:47,200 --> 00:38:49,359
Speaker 7: that that definitely hurts. So this is it's a tough

750
00:38:49,360 --> 00:38:51,720
Speaker 7: one for me to cap right now. I'll probably adjust

751
00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:53,759
Speaker 7: the number later in the week, but in line with

752
00:38:53,800 --> 00:38:55,239
Speaker 7: the market as of now.

753
00:38:55,280 --> 00:38:58,560
Speaker 5: But yeah, he didn't practice today and he's you know,

754
00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:01,760
Speaker 5: in the right zone. He is just him and Brady

755
00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:04,800
Speaker 5: have a lot of chemistry, so that could lead to

756
00:39:04,800 --> 00:39:07,479
Speaker 5: a couple of field goals here and there. Then look

757
00:39:07,520 --> 00:39:10,120
Speaker 5: that injury look bad. There was no ligment damage. But

758
00:39:10,280 --> 00:39:13,120
Speaker 5: this is a short week, so I think it's gonna

759
00:39:13,120 --> 00:39:15,080
Speaker 5: be tougher to be out there and one hundred percent.

760
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:17,480
Speaker 7: Yeah, no, it definitely is, and that would be worth

761
00:39:17,760 --> 00:39:19,399
Speaker 7: about a half a point to the point I think

762
00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:22,840
Speaker 7: just given the you know, the makeup of the Washington defense.

763
00:39:22,880 --> 00:39:24,600
Speaker 3: So yeah, it's a tough game for me to cap.

764
00:39:24,760 --> 00:39:28,000
Speaker 7: I can't argue with taking a big dog at home

765
00:39:28,120 --> 00:39:32,960
Speaker 7: in the postseason. I may end up just parlaying Tampa

766
00:39:33,000 --> 00:39:35,279
Speaker 7: Bay money line. I do think they win this game.

767
00:39:35,440 --> 00:39:38,360
Speaker 7: But yeah, tough one for me to cap at the moment.

768
00:39:38,640 --> 00:39:43,440
Speaker 5: One last note is Underdog's a seven plus in the

769
00:39:43,520 --> 00:39:48,120
Speaker 5: NFL playoffs since three per Action Labs database, thirty seven

770
00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:53,080
Speaker 5: fifty against the spread, covering by about two points per game.

771
00:39:54,719 --> 00:39:57,400
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783
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784
00:40:34,560 --> 00:40:35,480
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785
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786
00:40:37,080 --> 00:40:39,080
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787
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788
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789
00:40:43,960 --> 00:40:46,200
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791
00:40:51,440 --> 00:40:53,840
Speaker 7: I will go with the fifth overall pick of the

792
00:40:53,880 --> 00:40:58,920
Speaker 7: Wildcard six pack with the Buffalo Bills.

793
00:41:07,840 --> 00:41:08,160
Speaker 8: Last.

794
00:41:12,440 --> 00:41:17,279
Speaker 3: The bills make marijuana. I like Buffalo. I'm really high

795
00:41:17,280 --> 00:41:18,320
Speaker 3: in Buffalo. In this spot.

796
00:41:18,680 --> 00:41:21,360
Speaker 7: I think you're a little higher on Indianapolis, so interested

797
00:41:21,400 --> 00:41:22,279
Speaker 7: to hear your take on this.

798
00:41:22,360 --> 00:41:24,520
Speaker 3: But I have Buffalo.

799
00:41:24,040 --> 00:41:27,400
Speaker 7: As a seven point favorite in this game. And we

800
00:41:27,400 --> 00:41:29,800
Speaker 7: should mention that there aren't a lot of major edges

801
00:41:29,960 --> 00:41:32,200
Speaker 7: I think in terms of, you know, line value in

802
00:41:32,200 --> 00:41:34,600
Speaker 7: the postseason, at least not as many as you usually

803
00:41:34,600 --> 00:41:37,720
Speaker 7: get in the regular season with a wider sway of games.

804
00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:39,840
Speaker 7: I just I just think the markets a little more efficient.

805
00:41:40,160 --> 00:41:43,160
Speaker 7: But I do have this at seven. So taking Buffalo

806
00:41:43,200 --> 00:41:46,360
Speaker 7: here at six and a half, and this is another

807
00:41:46,600 --> 00:41:48,319
Speaker 7: there's another team where I look at the two teams

808
00:41:48,360 --> 00:41:52,040
Speaker 7: and how they're playing down the stretch, and Buffalo closes

809
00:41:52,080 --> 00:41:54,839
Speaker 7: out the years the last ten weeks. The only game

810
00:41:54,880 --> 00:42:00,920
Speaker 7: they lose is that Hail Mary game to Arizona Cliff Kingsbury.

811
00:42:01,320 --> 00:42:04,440
Speaker 7: So you know, earlier in the year, my criticism of

812
00:42:04,480 --> 00:42:06,960
Speaker 7: Buffalo was, hey, you know, they're playing great, but it

813
00:42:07,000 --> 00:42:09,520
Speaker 7: was coming against a shaky schedule. And that's true of

814
00:42:09,560 --> 00:42:12,239
Speaker 7: a lot of teams you know that made the postseason.

815
00:42:12,239 --> 00:42:13,799
Speaker 7: That's one of the things that helps you make the

816
00:42:13,800 --> 00:42:16,440
Speaker 7: postseason or finished with a great record. But you look

817
00:42:16,480 --> 00:42:21,560
Speaker 7: at Indianapolis and their strength is schedule in terms of

818
00:42:22,520 --> 00:42:24,520
Speaker 7: simple rating system, which is just a way to schedule,

819
00:42:24,560 --> 00:42:26,399
Speaker 7: just point differential, and there's a number of different ways

820
00:42:26,440 --> 00:42:29,080
Speaker 7: to look at this. But their strength to schedule is

821
00:42:29,120 --> 00:42:32,080
Speaker 7: actually minus two point eight, which means they played a

822
00:42:32,120 --> 00:42:33,920
Speaker 7: strength of schedule two and a half two point eight

823
00:42:33,920 --> 00:42:36,680
Speaker 7: points better than the league average team.

824
00:42:36,920 --> 00:42:39,560
Speaker 3: Buffalo's was just point two negative point two.

825
00:42:39,640 --> 00:42:44,440
Speaker 7: So Indianapolis actually has been teeing off against some easy

826
00:42:44,440 --> 00:42:46,759
Speaker 7: competition as well. And I think, you know, looking at

827
00:42:46,800 --> 00:42:49,080
Speaker 7: what they've done well, and they've really run the ball

828
00:42:49,080 --> 00:42:51,960
Speaker 7: well with Jonathan Taylor down the stretch, but that came

829
00:42:51,960 --> 00:42:58,160
Speaker 7: against Jacksonville, but that came against mostly against Jacksonville, Houston,

830
00:42:58,600 --> 00:43:02,719
Speaker 7: the Raiders a second game against Houston, and then the

831
00:43:02,719 --> 00:43:06,359
Speaker 7: Green Bay Packers and the Titans before that. They close

832
00:43:06,440 --> 00:43:08,919
Speaker 7: a year pretty much playing all of the league's worst

833
00:43:08,960 --> 00:43:12,040
Speaker 7: run defense outside of the game against Pittsburgh, which of

834
00:43:12,080 --> 00:43:15,080
Speaker 7: course they get up big and end up blowing the lead,

835
00:43:15,480 --> 00:43:18,759
Speaker 7: perhaps because they didn't run with as much efficiency wait

836
00:43:18,800 --> 00:43:21,040
Speaker 7: in that game, even though Taylor did have two touchdowns,

837
00:43:21,800 --> 00:43:25,240
Speaker 7: you know, he finished with seventy four yards and eighteen carries.

838
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:28,680
Speaker 7: I think this is a concern for Indianapolis because I

839
00:43:28,719 --> 00:43:32,040
Speaker 7: do think that Buffalo can get them into you know,

840
00:43:32,239 --> 00:43:34,239
Speaker 7: kind of force them into a shootout, and I worry

841
00:43:34,239 --> 00:43:36,279
Speaker 7: about Philip Rivers in that spot. Remember he still does

842
00:43:36,320 --> 00:43:39,880
Speaker 7: have that toe injury. You know he's going to get

843
00:43:39,880 --> 00:43:42,200
Speaker 7: the ball out quick. But this Buffalo defense has been

844
00:43:42,600 --> 00:43:45,279
Speaker 7: greatly improved, and so I just see Buffalo as the

845
00:43:45,320 --> 00:43:49,080
Speaker 7: better team in every facet at this point. Now you

846
00:43:49,120 --> 00:43:51,600
Speaker 7: look at their defense, and most people would point to

847
00:43:51,600 --> 00:43:54,319
Speaker 7: Indianapolis and say, Okay, Indy has the better defense. But

848
00:43:54,840 --> 00:43:56,480
Speaker 7: if you look at the second half of the season,

849
00:43:56,520 --> 00:43:58,040
Speaker 7: and a lot of this is to do with Buffalo

850
00:43:58,080 --> 00:43:59,480
Speaker 7: getting getting healthier.

851
00:43:59,680 --> 00:44:02,680
Speaker 3: Mattlano returning was huge for them.

852
00:44:02,680 --> 00:44:09,040
Speaker 7: But Buffalo from weeks ten to seventeen in DVA number

853
00:44:09,040 --> 00:44:12,239
Speaker 7: six against the pass, number eleven against the run, and

854
00:44:12,320 --> 00:44:15,040
Speaker 7: run defense was an issue for them. But aj you know,

855
00:44:15,040 --> 00:44:17,000
Speaker 7: they've they've kind of done some things with the linebackers

856
00:44:17,480 --> 00:44:19,440
Speaker 7: scheme wise. I think you hit on a little earlier

857
00:44:19,520 --> 00:44:21,960
Speaker 7: this year. So they are six against the pass, eleventh

858
00:44:21,960 --> 00:44:23,359
Speaker 7: against the run in the second half of the year.

859
00:44:23,640 --> 00:44:27,759
Speaker 7: Indianapolis sixteenth against the pass and eighteenth against the run.

860
00:44:28,160 --> 00:44:33,160
Speaker 7: So Indianapolis calling card really being on defense worries me

861
00:44:33,200 --> 00:44:37,080
Speaker 7: against you know, going against Buffalo, who obviously can put

862
00:44:37,160 --> 00:44:39,600
Speaker 7: up points when Indianapolis is playing average defense over the

863
00:44:39,640 --> 00:44:43,759
Speaker 7: second half of the year. A cornerback Rockison is not practicing,

864
00:44:44,320 --> 00:44:45,600
Speaker 7: so that could be an issue. But then on the

865
00:44:45,640 --> 00:44:49,680
Speaker 7: other side of the ball, Indianapolis without Anthony Costanzo who

866
00:44:49,760 --> 00:44:51,200
Speaker 7: had season ending surgery.

867
00:44:51,719 --> 00:44:56,480
Speaker 3: At left tackle Raven Clark, another tackle also went.

868
00:44:56,360 --> 00:45:00,960
Speaker 7: On ir So Indianapolis I just think not quite at

869
00:45:00,960 --> 00:45:04,600
Speaker 7: full strength, not playing as well. That game against Jacksonville

870
00:45:04,920 --> 00:45:06,880
Speaker 7: was more of a struggle than I thought it should be.

871
00:45:07,239 --> 00:45:09,279
Speaker 3: The collapse against the Steelers worried me.

872
00:45:09,680 --> 00:45:13,160
Speaker 7: And then Buffalo just I mean, they've been unstoppable pretty

873
00:45:13,239 --> 00:45:15,960
Speaker 7: much for the last ten games of the year. They

874
00:45:16,000 --> 00:45:18,600
Speaker 7: go on the year, they're eleven and five against the spread.

875
00:45:18,640 --> 00:45:19,520
Speaker 3: The Colts are eight and eight.

876
00:45:19,600 --> 00:45:24,400
Speaker 7: So Buffalo has continuously kind of outperformed expectations all season.

877
00:45:24,680 --> 00:45:26,359
Speaker 7: They're the better team on offense, and they're a better

878
00:45:26,360 --> 00:45:29,399
Speaker 7: team on defense down the stretch, and I just don't

879
00:45:29,440 --> 00:45:32,640
Speaker 7: think Indianapolis can stay with them being at Indianapolis's best

880
00:45:32,840 --> 00:45:35,319
Speaker 7: facet here is the run game, and I shouldn't say

881
00:45:35,320 --> 00:45:38,000
Speaker 7: Buffalos better than in every facet, because Indianapolis run game

882
00:45:38,080 --> 00:45:40,960
Speaker 7: is better on offense than Buffalo's. But I just think

883
00:45:40,960 --> 00:45:44,480
Speaker 7: that's the least impactful facet in this spot, with Josh

884
00:45:44,560 --> 00:45:47,360
Speaker 7: Allen playing well in Indian not playing quite as long defense.

885
00:45:47,400 --> 00:45:48,880
Speaker 3: So I make this line seven.

886
00:45:48,920 --> 00:45:50,719
Speaker 7: It's six and a half, not a major edge, but

887
00:45:51,200 --> 00:45:53,160
Speaker 7: going there for my final pick, come.

888
00:45:53,040 --> 00:45:58,000
Speaker 5: On, what you're gonna do, what you're gonna do. Yeah,

889
00:45:58,040 --> 00:45:59,719
Speaker 5: I just can't get there. I played. I make this

890
00:45:59,760 --> 00:46:03,520
Speaker 5: line fourst but maybe I can't get I can't catch

891
00:46:03,600 --> 00:46:05,560
Speaker 5: up to the Bills, and they're just I mean, I

892
00:46:05,600 --> 00:46:07,880
Speaker 5: have them in my top five now, like within a

893
00:46:07,920 --> 00:46:11,200
Speaker 5: field goal on a neutral field of the Chiefs. I

894
00:46:11,239 --> 00:46:12,799
Speaker 5: don't know how much higher I can go on them,

895
00:46:12,840 --> 00:46:15,440
Speaker 5: but they maybe they can just they keep covering. That's

896
00:46:15,440 --> 00:46:17,160
Speaker 5: all they've done over the second half of the season.

897
00:46:17,440 --> 00:46:20,680
Speaker 5: But I also, I actually so I played some seven,

898
00:46:21,320 --> 00:46:23,440
Speaker 5: you know, make it around four, and I got seven

899
00:46:23,440 --> 00:46:25,920
Speaker 5: minus one ten. So I took some seven because I'm

900
00:46:25,960 --> 00:46:28,960
Speaker 5: afraid of how good the Bills team might just be

901
00:46:29,239 --> 00:46:33,200
Speaker 5: and their ceiling, which is winning the Super Bowl. I

902
00:46:33,239 --> 00:46:37,080
Speaker 5: wouldn't feel comfortable under seven. But I also everyone is

903
00:46:37,080 --> 00:46:40,080
Speaker 5: talking about this over I actually really like this under

904
00:46:40,480 --> 00:46:42,439
Speaker 5: as well. By the way, culture favored in every game

905
00:46:42,480 --> 00:46:45,480
Speaker 5: this year, maybe against the Browns. I think they closed

906
00:46:45,520 --> 00:46:49,640
Speaker 5: as a one point dog. They faced the easiest schedule

907
00:46:49,800 --> 00:46:52,520
Speaker 5: of opposing defenses in the league, so they had a

908
00:46:52,560 --> 00:46:56,400
Speaker 5: really easy schedule, and you know, based on the defense

909
00:46:56,400 --> 00:47:00,319
Speaker 5: they faced on just overall, but looking at this game, Rivers,

910
00:47:00,320 --> 00:47:02,040
Speaker 5: by the way, he's four and out on the wildcard round,

911
00:47:02,160 --> 00:47:04,680
Speaker 5: but he's one in five, including er and three of

912
00:47:04,680 --> 00:47:06,800
Speaker 5: the playoffs in cold weather games. You know, he's older,

913
00:47:06,840 --> 00:47:11,399
Speaker 5: his arm doesn't really have as much anymore. And this

914
00:47:11,440 --> 00:47:14,160
Speaker 5: is gonna be under forty degrees, which is what that

915
00:47:14,360 --> 00:47:17,880
Speaker 5: stat refers. You're not the biggest sample size, but but

916
00:47:18,040 --> 00:47:20,239
Speaker 5: I throw it out there. And yeah, you mentioned Costanzo's out,

917
00:47:20,239 --> 00:47:22,799
Speaker 5: his backups out, their tackle situations a mess. Thirty three

918
00:47:22,880 --> 00:47:24,799
Speaker 5: year old Jared veld Here is going to start at

919
00:47:24,840 --> 00:47:27,040
Speaker 5: left tackle. I believe he's coaching high school this fall.

920
00:47:27,280 --> 00:47:29,440
Speaker 5: He did play last week, but that was against the Jags.

921
00:47:29,480 --> 00:47:31,239
Speaker 5: That could be a big liability. They're also gonna have

922
00:47:31,239 --> 00:47:33,839
Speaker 5: to keep probably keep their tight ends in a lot

923
00:47:33,880 --> 00:47:36,279
Speaker 5: more in help with passbuck and their tight ends are

924
00:47:36,280 --> 00:47:38,560
Speaker 5: really good passbuckers. Their running backs are, but their tight

925
00:47:38,640 --> 00:47:40,360
Speaker 5: ends are. But I think that the culture going to

926
00:47:40,400 --> 00:47:42,520
Speaker 5: go really run heavy. That is still how you can

927
00:47:42,560 --> 00:47:45,399
Speaker 5: attack this Bill's defense. Bill's defense has been a lot

928
00:47:45,400 --> 00:47:48,200
Speaker 5: better basically after the bye. They made some scheme changes

929
00:47:48,200 --> 00:47:52,160
Speaker 5: that got healthier and it's all come together. Defense has

930
00:47:52,160 --> 00:47:55,040
Speaker 5: been really good after the buybe But that's still how

931
00:47:55,040 --> 00:47:57,640
Speaker 5: you can attack this team, because you're gonna Tray White

932
00:47:58,040 --> 00:48:01,960
Speaker 5: on t Y Hilton and then the rest of your

933
00:48:02,000 --> 00:48:05,040
Speaker 5: past Catt catching options are a little underwhelming. And when

934
00:48:05,040 --> 00:48:07,279
Speaker 5: the Colts played good defenses this year and they didn't

935
00:48:07,280 --> 00:48:10,759
Speaker 5: play many, they you know, I think the Bills are

936
00:48:10,760 --> 00:48:14,759
Speaker 5: eighth weighted DVLA, but they Colts only faced three top

937
00:48:14,800 --> 00:48:18,040
Speaker 5: fifteen defenses all year, the Raven, Steelers and Bears. They

938
00:48:18,560 --> 00:48:23,320
Speaker 5: averaged five point zero yards per play. Only the Jets

939
00:48:23,360 --> 00:48:25,479
Speaker 5: average fewer in the season, so they didn't They didn't

940
00:48:25,520 --> 00:48:29,400
Speaker 5: really do much against all three of those defenses. So

941
00:48:29,440 --> 00:48:31,160
Speaker 5: I think they're gonna go slower. They're going to try

942
00:48:31,200 --> 00:48:34,160
Speaker 5: and control the ball here on the other side. But

943
00:48:34,200 --> 00:48:36,600
Speaker 5: I think the Bills defense will come to play on

944
00:48:36,640 --> 00:48:39,680
Speaker 5: the other side of the ball. It'll be interesting. Rock

945
00:48:39,760 --> 00:48:41,399
Speaker 5: outs sit by the way. I hope he doesn't play.

946
00:48:41,400 --> 00:48:45,959
Speaker 5: He's car TJ carry I have better so I hope

947
00:48:45,960 --> 00:48:49,760
Speaker 5: that TJ. Carrey plays for my under so Rhodes versus Diggs.

948
00:48:50,080 --> 00:48:52,680
Speaker 5: I don't know if they're going to play, you know,

949
00:48:52,760 --> 00:48:55,239
Speaker 5: if they're going to have Rhodes followed Digs or if

950
00:48:55,280 --> 00:48:57,960
Speaker 5: they're going to have Beasley looks like he's going to

951
00:48:58,000 --> 00:48:59,680
Speaker 5: be out, which I think is important based on how

952
00:48:59,719 --> 00:49:02,200
Speaker 5: the play defense, and I'll get to that in a second,

953
00:49:02,400 --> 00:49:05,160
Speaker 5: but it'll be interesting to see if they double digs

954
00:49:05,800 --> 00:49:08,040
Speaker 5: and Willis is gonna looks like he'll play. The Colts

955
00:49:08,120 --> 00:49:10,200
Speaker 5: defense has been underperformed the second that year, but they

956
00:49:10,239 --> 00:49:12,680
Speaker 5: have dealt with some injuries. This is probably as healthy

957
00:49:12,680 --> 00:49:14,600
Speaker 5: as they're going to be in a while. Run defense

958
00:49:14,640 --> 00:49:17,040
Speaker 5: is still really good, defensive line against the run really good.

959
00:49:17,120 --> 00:49:18,640
Speaker 5: Bills aren't going to get much on the ground. So

960
00:49:18,680 --> 00:49:21,080
Speaker 5: it comes down to Josh Allen played as well, playing

961
00:49:21,080 --> 00:49:22,920
Speaker 5: as well as any quarterback in the league against this

962
00:49:23,560 --> 00:49:28,520
Speaker 5: Matt Eberflu's defense, and the Colts play zone about as

963
00:49:28,600 --> 00:49:33,440
Speaker 5: much as any team in the NFL, and if you

964
00:49:33,480 --> 00:49:36,759
Speaker 5: look in if you dig a little deeper, this year,

965
00:49:37,239 --> 00:49:38,719
Speaker 5: Colts I think run the second most zone in the

966
00:49:38,800 --> 00:49:42,240
Speaker 5: NFL this year. A lot of Cover three, Cover six. Okay,

967
00:49:42,320 --> 00:49:47,400
Speaker 5: so Allen still struggles against zone defenses and against cover zero,

968
00:49:47,760 --> 00:49:53,600
Speaker 5: cover one, Cover two, men underneath, he had twenty five touchdowns,

969
00:49:53,600 --> 00:49:58,120
Speaker 5: two interceptions on target percentage of seventy seven percent, trailing

970
00:49:58,200 --> 00:50:01,920
Speaker 5: only Bridgewater and Cousins NFL passer rating of one hundred

971
00:50:01,920 --> 00:50:05,759
Speaker 5: and twenty six when facing cover zero, cover one, Cover two,

972
00:50:06,600 --> 00:50:11,319
Speaker 5: ahead of Rogers and Mahomes. And the Colts really don't

973
00:50:11,320 --> 00:50:16,200
Speaker 5: play those coverages a lot. However, they've been a lot

974
00:50:16,280 --> 00:50:20,359
Speaker 5: better when they have, which is really interesting, but I'll

975
00:50:20,360 --> 00:50:25,280
Speaker 5: get to that a stec Now against zone defenses Cover two, regular,

976
00:50:25,320 --> 00:50:28,439
Speaker 5: cover two, Cover three, Cover four, Cover six, Tampa two, etc.

977
00:50:30,200 --> 00:50:34,520
Speaker 5: He has eleven touchdowns and eight interceptions. He's just not

978
00:50:34,560 --> 00:50:36,680
Speaker 5: as good against the defense. You can't really play man

979
00:50:37,120 --> 00:50:40,480
Speaker 5: against this Bill's offense because you're not I mean, they're

980
00:50:40,520 --> 00:50:42,120
Speaker 5: just gonna take shots. This is a team that just

981
00:50:42,120 --> 00:50:44,120
Speaker 5: wants to come out and throw the ball. You're not

982
00:50:44,120 --> 00:50:46,320
Speaker 5: gonna be able to cover digs and John Brown is

983
00:50:46,360 --> 00:50:48,319
Speaker 5: back healthy, and then you also have to worry about

984
00:50:48,320 --> 00:50:52,040
Speaker 5: Allen's legs when you're playing man defense, and hope Burren

985
00:50:52,120 --> 00:50:56,840
Speaker 5: you there. So the way to play this Bill's offense

986
00:50:56,960 --> 00:50:59,520
Speaker 5: is to run zone defense and that's what the Colts

987
00:51:00,440 --> 00:51:02,160
Speaker 5: in I'll be curious to see. I think they're gonna

988
00:51:02,160 --> 00:51:05,200
Speaker 5: go a ton of Cover three because when they play

989
00:51:05,600 --> 00:51:10,080
Speaker 5: out basically the Colts have been It's interesting. When they've

990
00:51:10,080 --> 00:51:13,120
Speaker 5: been in like Cover two, Cover six, they haven't been

991
00:51:13,280 --> 00:51:15,959
Speaker 5: that great this year, But when they've been in Cover

992
00:51:16,080 --> 00:51:18,560
Speaker 5: three and Cover one, they've been one of the best

993
00:51:18,560 --> 00:51:21,719
Speaker 5: pass defenses in the NFL, a quarterback rating of like

994
00:51:21,880 --> 00:51:24,759
Speaker 5: QBR of just eighty four. But you can't really play

995
00:51:24,800 --> 00:51:27,560
Speaker 5: Cover one against this Bills offense. So I think they're

996
00:51:27,560 --> 00:51:29,560
Speaker 5: gonna go a ton of Cover three, and they've done

997
00:51:29,560 --> 00:51:34,120
Speaker 5: it well all year, and I think that that's gonna

998
00:51:34,200 --> 00:51:37,240
Speaker 5: cause Allen some problems and slow down this Bill's offense

999
00:51:37,360 --> 00:51:39,960
Speaker 5: just a bit. So I think it's a good matchup

1000
00:51:40,080 --> 00:51:43,319
Speaker 5: for the Colts defense if they play it how I

1001
00:51:43,360 --> 00:51:45,600
Speaker 5: think they're going to play it. On the other side,

1002
00:51:45,600 --> 00:51:48,240
Speaker 5: I think that the Colts offense is a little overrated.

1003
00:51:48,280 --> 00:51:51,840
Speaker 5: They played such an easy schedule and against any defense

1004
00:51:51,840 --> 00:51:53,920
Speaker 5: of the polls they play, they didn't do much. I

1005
00:51:53,960 --> 00:51:56,840
Speaker 5: think the Bills defense can play here. So seven is

1006
00:51:56,880 --> 00:51:59,960
Speaker 5: just too high for me. High backdoor risk is well

1007
00:52:00,520 --> 00:52:02,279
Speaker 5: if it's this game is a ten thirteen point game,

1008
00:52:02,360 --> 00:52:04,480
Speaker 5: rivers can go down and the king of that gets

1009
00:52:04,520 --> 00:52:07,640
Speaker 5: you a touchdown. But I actually think like this under,

1010
00:52:07,680 --> 00:52:09,560
Speaker 5: especially to get fifty one, which is a key number.

1011
00:52:10,040 --> 00:52:11,719
Speaker 7: Yeah, I think that's a good point on the under,

1012
00:52:12,320 --> 00:52:14,680
Speaker 7: you know, for all the reasons you mentioned. But yeah,

1013
00:52:14,680 --> 00:52:16,640
Speaker 7: I'm pretty confident the Bills. I would say to everyone

1014
00:52:16,680 --> 00:52:19,120
Speaker 7: out there, you know, you know this is the postseason.

1015
00:52:19,320 --> 00:52:20,480
Speaker 3: You know they're West games.

1016
00:52:20,560 --> 00:52:23,279
Speaker 7: If you don't bet a lot of money line, but

1017
00:52:23,560 --> 00:52:25,880
Speaker 7: you feel good about a team, I mean, the the

1018
00:52:25,920 --> 00:52:28,879
Speaker 7: market is generally efficient, so if you do feel like, hey,

1019
00:52:28,920 --> 00:52:30,320
Speaker 7: I think the Bills are gonna win, but maybe I

1020
00:52:30,360 --> 00:52:32,800
Speaker 7: don't know about the number. The same thing for the

1021
00:52:32,800 --> 00:52:35,080
Speaker 7: Steelers or any of the teams we really are talking

1022
00:52:35,080 --> 00:52:37,680
Speaker 7: about that are our favorites. Just it might be the

1023
00:52:37,719 --> 00:52:39,839
Speaker 7: time to place some money line. You could par away

1024
00:52:39,880 --> 00:52:41,920
Speaker 7: a couple of teams and that'll get you down to

1025
00:52:42,480 --> 00:52:44,719
Speaker 7: better odds. So I do agree with that, But I

1026
00:52:44,760 --> 00:52:46,440
Speaker 7: just think, you know, this team is so well coached

1027
00:52:46,800 --> 00:52:50,240
Speaker 7: for Buffalo and usually Indianapolis has a coaching advantage. Now overall,

1028
00:52:50,239 --> 00:52:53,320
Speaker 7: Frank Reich, I'm surprised to see that Hiss against the

1029
00:52:53,360 --> 00:52:56,640
Speaker 7: spread record is only twenty four twenty three and three

1030
00:52:56,840 --> 00:52:59,440
Speaker 7: all time. He does cover by an average of one

1031
00:52:59,480 --> 00:53:01,200
Speaker 7: point five points per game according.

1032
00:53:00,880 --> 00:53:01,839
Speaker 3: To our Action Labs data.

1033
00:53:01,880 --> 00:53:04,520
Speaker 7: But but Sean McDermott, it's a testament to how well

1034
00:53:04,520 --> 00:53:07,960
Speaker 7: coached the Bills are. He's thirty seven, twenty six and

1035
00:53:08,040 --> 00:53:10,439
Speaker 7: three in his career against the spread fifty eight point

1036
00:53:10,480 --> 00:53:14,719
Speaker 7: seven percent, and with Josh Allen as the quarterback, he

1037
00:53:14,880 --> 00:53:18,920
Speaker 7: is twenty six, sixteen and two against the spread regular

1038
00:53:18,920 --> 00:53:23,160
Speaker 7: in postseason, covering by an average of four point two

1039
00:53:23,160 --> 00:53:26,160
Speaker 7: points per game, so sixty two percent against the spread

1040
00:53:26,160 --> 00:53:29,560
Speaker 7: with Allen covering by four point two. I just think

1041
00:53:29,600 --> 00:53:31,160
Speaker 7: this Buffalo team is going to come out with better

1042
00:53:31,200 --> 00:53:33,839
Speaker 7: game plan. I think they have the edges and three

1043
00:53:33,840 --> 00:53:36,600
Speaker 7: of the four main facets. So YEP, still taking Buffalo

1044
00:53:36,680 --> 00:53:39,200
Speaker 7: on the spread, but agreed that the under is also

1045
00:53:39,239 --> 00:53:43,240
Speaker 7: worth a look Outdoor unders in the wild card round

1046
00:53:43,280 --> 00:53:47,040
Speaker 7: are thirty eight and fourteen seventy three percent since two

1047
00:53:47,040 --> 00:53:49,040
Speaker 7: thousand and three according to our Action Labs data.

1048
00:53:49,000 --> 00:53:50,399
Speaker 3: So don't hate that at all.

1049
00:53:50,480 --> 00:53:53,360
Speaker 7: But if you don't have confidence in the Bills spread,

1050
00:53:53,400 --> 00:53:55,399
Speaker 7: I think it's also worth looking at their money liner

1051
00:53:55,480 --> 00:53:56,040
Speaker 7: parlaying it.

1052
00:53:58,560 --> 00:54:00,200
Speaker 8: The Bills make Mewall.

1053
00:54:02,440 --> 00:54:07,319
Speaker 5: Hey yeah, Historically this is an under round and I

1054
00:54:07,320 --> 00:54:09,040
Speaker 5: will have a lot of owners this week. I think

1055
00:54:09,080 --> 00:54:12,319
Speaker 5: there's a lot of advantages for the defenses in a

1056
00:54:12,360 --> 00:54:16,040
Speaker 5: lot of these matchups. Speaking of which, let's move on

1057
00:54:16,120 --> 00:54:21,320
Speaker 5: to the final, My final and the sixth overall pick

1058
00:54:21,560 --> 00:54:25,160
Speaker 5: of the wild Card Weekend six pack, and I'm going

1059
00:54:25,280 --> 00:54:29,520
Speaker 5: with an under. Baltimore Ravens Tennessee Titans under fifty four

1060
00:54:29,520 --> 00:54:33,160
Speaker 5: and a half. Try to get fifty five, obviously a

1061
00:54:33,200 --> 00:54:36,000
Speaker 5: key number. This is another game. Everyone's like, Oh, it's

1062
00:54:36,040 --> 00:54:38,640
Speaker 5: gonna go over everyone. That's that's gonna be the point.

1063
00:54:38,640 --> 00:54:41,880
Speaker 5: Maybe it is, it's the points matchup, blah blah blah.

1064
00:54:42,160 --> 00:54:44,920
Speaker 5: But I actually see some value in the under. These

1065
00:54:44,960 --> 00:54:48,919
Speaker 5: two teams got to fifty four in overtime earlier this year,

1066
00:54:49,680 --> 00:54:53,080
Speaker 5: and it's funny people are saying, oh, this Titans offense.

1067
00:54:53,560 --> 00:54:56,160
Speaker 5: The Titans owned the Ravens. They've won twice in the

1068
00:54:56,239 --> 00:54:59,560
Speaker 5: last year. Last year, the Titans were absolutely dominated. Let's

1069
00:54:59,560 --> 00:55:02,799
Speaker 5: get it st The Ravens ran forty more plays than

1070
00:55:02,800 --> 00:55:05,960
Speaker 5: the Titans in that playoff loss and averaged more yards

1071
00:55:05,960 --> 00:55:09,120
Speaker 5: per play. They out gained them five thirty to three hundred.

1072
00:55:09,360 --> 00:55:11,680
Speaker 5: They just had all of their fourth, all the fourth

1073
00:55:11,680 --> 00:55:14,759
Speaker 5: down variants, all the turnoverens, tip balls, mean you name it.

1074
00:55:14,920 --> 00:55:18,280
Speaker 5: And then earlier this year, they completely shut down this

1075
00:55:18,480 --> 00:55:22,880
Speaker 5: Tennessee offense through three quarters and then Tennessee had a

1076
00:55:22,920 --> 00:55:24,640
Speaker 5: comeback in the fourth quarter, and then they got the

1077
00:55:24,680 --> 00:55:27,879
Speaker 5: ball and went down and scored. And you know, Derek

1078
00:55:27,920 --> 00:55:30,120
Speaker 5: Henry only had like fifty yards through three quarters in

1079
00:55:30,160 --> 00:55:32,600
Speaker 5: that game, and the Ravens were playing without Kalayis Campbell

1080
00:55:32,600 --> 00:55:36,360
Speaker 5: and Brandon went both are back. Ravens defense as healthy

1081
00:55:36,360 --> 00:55:39,560
Speaker 5: as it's been all year. And when Brandon Williams is

1082
00:55:39,600 --> 00:55:41,920
Speaker 5: in there, when Campbell's in there, their run defense is

1083
00:55:41,960 --> 00:55:44,640
Speaker 5: on another level. They didn't have them in that Tennessee game,

1084
00:55:45,000 --> 00:55:46,680
Speaker 5: they didn't have them in that New England game, and

1085
00:55:46,719 --> 00:55:49,480
Speaker 5: you saw Baltimore get run on. Run defense has been

1086
00:55:49,520 --> 00:55:52,040
Speaker 5: really strong when those two of it in all year long.

1087
00:55:53,040 --> 00:55:57,160
Speaker 5: So I look at this, you know, this Titans offense,

1088
00:55:57,400 --> 00:55:59,600
Speaker 5: and I think that the Ravens matchup well. Now, this

1089
00:55:59,680 --> 00:56:01,759
Speaker 5: is why they went out and got Wolf. They went

1090
00:56:01,760 --> 00:56:05,040
Speaker 5: out and got Campbell to address the run defense issues

1091
00:56:05,040 --> 00:56:06,719
Speaker 5: that they had last year. Now they've had to deal

1092
00:56:06,719 --> 00:56:08,919
Speaker 5: a lot of injuries and COVID issues, So you haven't

1093
00:56:08,920 --> 00:56:11,400
Speaker 5: seen that full strength unit, but when you have, the

1094
00:56:11,480 --> 00:56:14,279
Speaker 5: run defense has been more than fine. I think that

1095
00:56:14,320 --> 00:56:18,080
Speaker 5: they'll play up here. And I don't think Henry is

1096
00:56:18,120 --> 00:56:20,640
Speaker 5: gonna go off. I really don't. Now he might break

1097
00:56:20,680 --> 00:56:22,480
Speaker 5: a runner too, it's Derek Henry's But I think the

1098
00:56:22,560 --> 00:56:24,839
Speaker 5: Ravens run defense is gonna come to play. They can

1099
00:56:24,880 --> 00:56:29,200
Speaker 5: match up on the outside with these Tennessee receivers and

1100
00:56:29,320 --> 00:56:32,399
Speaker 5: that they can get pressure on Ryan Tannehill. And when

1101
00:56:32,440 --> 00:56:35,120
Speaker 5: you can get pressure on Ryan Tannehal, he is not

1102
00:56:35,640 --> 00:56:37,960
Speaker 5: anywhere close to as productive as he is with a

1103
00:56:38,000 --> 00:56:42,200
Speaker 5: clean pocket generally with off play action. When everyone's worried

1104
00:56:42,560 --> 00:56:44,960
Speaker 5: about Henry, But I think Ravens run defense comes to play.

1105
00:56:45,120 --> 00:56:48,279
Speaker 5: They're gonna put Tennessee in pure passing situations. I also

1106
00:56:48,320 --> 00:56:49,800
Speaker 5: think the Ravens are going to get a lead and

1107
00:56:49,920 --> 00:56:51,360
Speaker 5: make Tennesse you have to throw out. They're going to

1108
00:56:51,480 --> 00:56:54,240
Speaker 5: just bring the pressure. And that's where Tannehill just hasn't

1109
00:56:54,239 --> 00:56:54,680
Speaker 5: been great.

1110
00:56:55,239 --> 00:56:58,400
Speaker 1: Ryan Tanner thrill and last year.

1111
00:56:58,239 --> 00:57:02,120
Speaker 5: He tanneled through for eighty totally in that win at Baltimore.

1112
00:57:02,760 --> 00:57:06,200
Speaker 5: Titans offensive line is also a mess, and just look

1113
00:57:06,239 --> 00:57:09,480
Speaker 5: at the schedule of defenses that I know, the Titans

1114
00:57:09,480 --> 00:57:13,440
Speaker 5: offense by every advanced metric has been awesome, But I

1115
00:57:13,480 --> 00:57:16,320
Speaker 5: mean that I think they face the second or third

1116
00:57:16,440 --> 00:57:20,160
Speaker 5: easiest schedule. It helps of opposing defense helps being in

1117
00:57:20,160 --> 00:57:22,360
Speaker 5: that division. I mentioned not with the Colts, but I

1118
00:57:22,440 --> 00:57:27,600
Speaker 5: mean they face the Jags, the Vikings, the Texans, the Bengals.

1119
00:57:28,160 --> 00:57:34,000
Speaker 5: I mean just this absolutely awful defenses, Jags lines, Texans,

1120
00:57:34,080 --> 00:57:37,040
Speaker 5: so many bad defenses throughout the year. So I just

1121
00:57:37,080 --> 00:57:39,800
Speaker 5: think that this Baltimore defense is matches up well. The

1122
00:57:39,840 --> 00:57:44,320
Speaker 5: Titans defense has been a disaster. Is There's nothing nice

1123
00:57:44,360 --> 00:57:46,800
Speaker 5: I can say about the Titans defense, but their run

1124
00:57:46,920 --> 00:57:49,640
Speaker 5: defense is a little bit better. They have seen this

1125
00:57:49,960 --> 00:57:53,400
Speaker 5: Lamar Jackson and the Ravens rushing attack twice in the

1126
00:57:53,440 --> 00:57:56,840
Speaker 5: past year. The Ravens have been dominating teams over the

1127
00:57:56,880 --> 00:57:59,200
Speaker 5: past five weeks, five and zero against the spread. They

1128
00:57:59,240 --> 00:58:02,360
Speaker 5: have the most run yards in a five games any

1129
00:58:02,360 --> 00:58:04,760
Speaker 5: five games stretch in NFL history over that time. But

1130
00:58:04,800 --> 00:58:07,240
Speaker 5: they've played a bunch of bad teams. They still their

1131
00:58:07,600 --> 00:58:11,560
Speaker 5: young offensive line is coming together. They're unleashing Dobbins. Lamar

1132
00:58:11,640 --> 00:58:14,280
Speaker 5: Jackson kind of has his mojo back, but they were

1133
00:58:14,320 --> 00:58:16,919
Speaker 5: still are playing a lot of bad defenses. In bad

1134
00:58:16,960 --> 00:58:19,800
Speaker 5: run defenses. I don't think that they're just gonna be

1135
00:58:19,800 --> 00:58:22,520
Speaker 5: able to throw it all over the field. The Titans

1136
00:58:22,520 --> 00:58:25,200
Speaker 5: defense is really bad, but I think that they can

1137
00:58:25,240 --> 00:58:29,880
Speaker 5: play a little bit better than people expect them to here.

1138
00:58:30,600 --> 00:58:33,240
Speaker 5: And but ultimately I think the Ravens win this game.

1139
00:58:33,560 --> 00:58:36,200
Speaker 5: I'm very confident. I only make the line like around three,

1140
00:58:36,360 --> 00:58:38,000
Speaker 5: so I can't lay it. I played. I played some

1141
00:58:38,080 --> 00:58:41,080
Speaker 5: Ravens money line with the Saints. If they go down,

1142
00:58:41,160 --> 00:58:43,520
Speaker 5: I will play them live. I also think that one

1143
00:58:43,560 --> 00:58:46,520
Speaker 5: of the key factors year's third down defense, Ravens third

1144
00:58:46,560 --> 00:58:49,280
Speaker 5: down defense number two in the NFL allowed teams to

1145
00:58:49,320 --> 00:58:52,360
Speaker 5: convert on only thirty four percent of third down conversion attempts.

1146
00:58:52,400 --> 00:58:56,600
Speaker 5: Titans dead last fifty. That's worse than NFL history. So

1147
00:58:56,640 --> 00:58:58,240
Speaker 5: I think the Ravens will be able to sustain drive.

1148
00:58:58,560 --> 00:59:01,400
Speaker 5: And they're a stale, they're slow. They're probably gonna go

1149
00:59:01,480 --> 00:59:03,880
Speaker 5: for it on fourth downs. They're going to keep the

1150
00:59:03,960 --> 00:59:07,439
Speaker 5: clock running. I think their defense plays up. And don't

1151
00:59:07,440 --> 00:59:11,680
Speaker 5: forget about special teams. The Ravens have an enormous advantage

1152
00:59:11,720 --> 00:59:15,040
Speaker 5: on special teams here, probably the best special teams unit

1153
00:59:15,080 --> 00:59:18,280
Speaker 5: in the NFL. Titans arguably one of the worst in

1154
00:59:18,360 --> 00:59:21,640
Speaker 5: the NFL this year that could ultimately end up making

1155
00:59:21,680 --> 00:59:23,720
Speaker 5: the difference. But I think fifty five is too high.

1156
00:59:23,840 --> 00:59:25,479
Speaker 5: I still think fifty four and a half is still

1157
00:59:25,800 --> 00:59:28,000
Speaker 5: too high, But try to get that fifty five key number.

1158
00:59:28,600 --> 00:59:31,320
Speaker 5: And if you can get a I like the Raves

1159
00:59:31,360 --> 00:59:32,640
Speaker 5: and money out of play, if you can get them

1160
00:59:32,720 --> 00:59:35,720
Speaker 5: live at a picker underdog like that as well. I

1161
00:59:35,800 --> 00:59:37,880
Speaker 5: think the Ravens are moving on. I hope that we

1162
00:59:37,960 --> 00:59:39,880
Speaker 5: do get Ravens Chiefs because I would love to break

1163
00:59:39,920 --> 00:59:41,960
Speaker 5: that down and see what are the Ravens gonna change.

1164
00:59:42,000 --> 00:59:44,640
Speaker 5: I don't want to what is Mahomes that offense gonna do?

1165
00:59:44,720 --> 00:59:47,640
Speaker 5: This Titans defense. I really don't feel like capping that.

1166
00:59:47,800 --> 00:59:48,240
Speaker 7: I really do.

1167
00:59:48,360 --> 00:59:48,720
Speaker 3: I just don't.

1168
00:59:48,920 --> 00:59:51,440
Speaker 5: That game doesn't an album. Raves Fann'm biased and have

1169
00:59:51,520 --> 00:59:54,640
Speaker 5: tons of futures, but I think Ravens win game stays

1170
00:59:54,720 --> 00:59:57,320
Speaker 5: under Ravens defense comes to play. I'll take any of

1171
00:59:57,360 --> 00:59:58,360
Speaker 5: motherfucker's money.

1172
00:59:58,200 --> 01:00:00,040
Speaker 3: If he giving it away. I mean, you did you

1173
01:00:00,160 --> 01:00:02,640
Speaker 3: have as you mentioned, you had a thirty twenty four game.

1174
01:00:02,800 --> 01:00:06,760
Speaker 7: That's fifty four in overtime this year, twenty eight to

1175
01:00:06,760 --> 01:00:09,600
Speaker 7: twelve last season, And I do think you know In

1176
01:00:09,720 --> 01:00:11,800
Speaker 7: terms of this, this is a hard game to cap

1177
01:00:11,880 --> 01:00:14,480
Speaker 7: because you do see teams with the you know that

1178
01:00:14,640 --> 01:00:17,920
Speaker 7: do win that regular season game in a non division matchup,

1179
01:00:18,040 --> 01:00:20,200
Speaker 7: they go on to rend them rematch fifty eight point

1180
01:00:20,240 --> 01:00:21,919
Speaker 7: seven percent of the time since three.

1181
01:00:23,000 --> 01:00:25,560
Speaker 3: But again, the Ravens were banged up in that game.

1182
01:00:25,640 --> 01:00:28,160
Speaker 3: You mentioned it. They were without some key pieces on defense.

1183
01:00:28,600 --> 01:00:30,040
Speaker 3: So it is a tough game to cap.

1184
01:00:30,200 --> 01:00:33,320
Speaker 7: The real Titans advantage in the postseason last year, to me,

1185
01:00:33,800 --> 01:00:36,280
Speaker 7: their game plan, I mean, I think that you know,

1186
01:00:36,440 --> 01:00:40,200
Speaker 7: the Ravens out gaining them was somewhat misleading because the

1187
01:00:40,320 --> 01:00:43,200
Speaker 7: Titans kind of stemied Lamar Jackson in a way that

1188
01:00:43,800 --> 01:00:46,600
Speaker 7: no other team did. They forced him to throw places

1189
01:00:46,640 --> 01:00:49,360
Speaker 7: he wasn't comfortable. They kept him in the pocket early,

1190
01:00:49,520 --> 01:00:51,800
Speaker 7: and they kept him uncomfortable in the pocket late in

1191
01:00:51,840 --> 01:00:53,400
Speaker 7: the game. Yeah, he was running all over the place

1192
01:00:53,440 --> 01:00:56,960
Speaker 7: they were throwing. But they had sixty three dropbacks, uh

1193
01:00:57,160 --> 01:01:00,680
Speaker 7: and average five and a half yards per dropback, fifty

1194
01:01:00,800 --> 01:01:03,480
Speaker 7: nine pass attempts, and they averaged six point two yards

1195
01:01:03,520 --> 01:01:06,160
Speaker 7: per attempt. So it was a struggle for them even

1196
01:01:06,240 --> 01:01:08,720
Speaker 7: in garbage time. I mean, it was it was you know,

1197
01:01:08,840 --> 01:01:11,120
Speaker 7: it wasn't easy. So but is that you know, was

1198
01:01:11,200 --> 01:01:13,720
Speaker 7: that DNPS and this past defense is a lot worse.

1199
01:01:13,800 --> 01:01:17,360
Speaker 7: DNPS is gone. This past defense is even worse. So

1200
01:01:17,880 --> 01:01:19,600
Speaker 7: it could all just come apart. For the Titans, they've

1201
01:01:19,600 --> 01:01:22,520
Speaker 7: been high variants. I mean, they've played something. They just

1202
01:01:22,640 --> 01:01:26,320
Speaker 7: blew one against Cincinnati. They laid the egg against Green Bay.

1203
01:01:26,440 --> 01:01:27,920
Speaker 7: Did they really care because they knew they could win

1204
01:01:28,000 --> 01:01:29,160
Speaker 7: next week to win a division?

1205
01:01:29,360 --> 01:01:29,880
Speaker 3: Who knows.

1206
01:01:30,400 --> 01:01:32,400
Speaker 7: But this is a tough game to cap because I

1207
01:01:32,440 --> 01:01:33,720
Speaker 7: think it could go either way. But you do have

1208
01:01:33,840 --> 01:01:36,000
Speaker 7: working in your favorite for the under Both of these

1209
01:01:36,080 --> 01:01:40,560
Speaker 7: matchups over the past twelve months didn't get to fifty

1210
01:01:40,600 --> 01:01:42,760
Speaker 7: five points and the total right now fifty four and

1211
01:01:42,800 --> 01:01:43,040
Speaker 7: a half.

1212
01:01:43,840 --> 01:01:44,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, and the.

1213
01:01:44,600 --> 01:01:47,600
Speaker 5: Titans offense too, Look, it's really good. They do a

1214
01:01:47,640 --> 01:01:49,240
Speaker 5: lot of things well. But they're gonna come out and

1215
01:01:49,240 --> 01:01:51,320
Speaker 5: they're gonna run the ball no matter what. And I

1216
01:01:51,400 --> 01:01:53,400
Speaker 5: think the Ravens are gonna be ready, and that's they

1217
01:01:53,520 --> 01:01:55,240
Speaker 5: try to set up their play action and everything off

1218
01:01:55,280 --> 01:01:57,880
Speaker 5: of that. But some of the numbers stuff, the Titans

1219
01:01:57,960 --> 01:02:00,520
Speaker 5: played the Ravens when the Ravens that were missing some

1220
01:02:00,640 --> 01:02:04,080
Speaker 5: of their best defenders, they put up like forty points

1221
01:02:04,120 --> 01:02:05,920
Speaker 5: on the Browns when they were down by forty, they

1222
01:02:05,960 --> 01:02:07,840
Speaker 5: were now thirty eight three to the Browns at the half.

1223
01:02:08,080 --> 01:02:13,000
Speaker 5: So they've caught some teams in some beneficial spots. And

1224
01:02:13,800 --> 01:02:15,880
Speaker 5: they played the Bills when they put up forty when

1225
01:02:15,880 --> 01:02:18,640
Speaker 5: the Bills defense was a shell of itself. Is before

1226
01:02:18,680 --> 01:02:22,439
Speaker 5: the Bills have figured out anything on defense. So look,

1227
01:02:22,480 --> 01:02:24,640
Speaker 5: we can adjust for opponent. But then when I go

1228
01:02:24,760 --> 01:02:26,720
Speaker 5: back and look at some of the breaks that they've

1229
01:02:26,760 --> 01:02:29,240
Speaker 5: gotten on defenses that they face, and then points that

1230
01:02:29,280 --> 01:02:32,000
Speaker 5: they put up against the Browns, and you know, basically

1231
01:02:32,160 --> 01:02:34,720
Speaker 5: just Browns playing a prevet defense for a half. I

1232
01:02:34,760 --> 01:02:38,560
Speaker 5: think some of the Titans offensive numbers are a little inflated.

1233
01:02:38,880 --> 01:02:41,160
Speaker 5: I think the Ravens get pressure in Panale. They're gonna

1234
01:02:41,160 --> 01:02:43,720
Speaker 5: come to play against Henry. I think Ravens win and

1235
01:02:43,760 --> 01:02:47,880
Speaker 5: the game stays under It's Baltimore, gentlemen. The gods will

1236
01:02:47,960 --> 01:02:49,600
Speaker 5: not save you, all right.

1237
01:02:49,720 --> 01:02:54,040
Speaker 7: So to recap, we have our six pack spreads and

1238
01:02:54,240 --> 01:02:59,200
Speaker 7: totals for each game. Stuck is going with the ram

1239
01:02:59,320 --> 01:03:03,080
Speaker 7: Seahawks under forty two and a half, Washington plus eight

1240
01:03:03,480 --> 01:03:07,320
Speaker 7: at home against Tampa Bay, and the Ravens Titans under

1241
01:03:07,840 --> 01:03:10,400
Speaker 7: fifty four and a half. I am going with the

1242
01:03:10,520 --> 01:03:15,320
Speaker 7: Steelers minus six, the Saints Bears under forty seven and

1243
01:03:15,560 --> 01:03:19,320
Speaker 7: a half, and the Buffalo Bills as six and a

1244
01:03:19,320 --> 01:03:23,600
Speaker 7: half point favorites at home against the Indianapolis Colts, and.

1245
01:03:25,080 --> 01:03:27,280
Speaker 3: We should do our coaches pep talk. I think this

1246
01:03:27,360 --> 01:03:30,840
Speaker 3: is a good one to dedicate to to Washington because

1247
01:03:31,800 --> 01:03:34,360
Speaker 3: you know you have Washington plus eight. They have to

1248
01:03:34,440 --> 01:03:37,880
Speaker 3: come to play here. Alex Smith, you know, has to

1249
01:03:37,960 --> 01:03:38,320
Speaker 3: be better.

1250
01:03:38,520 --> 01:03:42,000
Speaker 5: We need Alex Smith to step up here, the leaders

1251
01:03:42,160 --> 01:03:47,080
Speaker 5: on that Washington defense to make a play. Maybe Alex

1252
01:03:47,120 --> 01:03:50,560
Speaker 5: Smith and or my man Heinike to get in the

1253
01:03:50,640 --> 01:03:54,400
Speaker 5: back door late, which could be a factor here. So

1254
01:03:54,720 --> 01:03:58,600
Speaker 5: coaches pep Talk goes out to the leaders of the

1255
01:03:58,880 --> 01:04:04,720
Speaker 5: Washington defense and whoever is under center on the Washington offense.

1256
01:04:05,440 --> 01:04:08,120
Speaker 7: So this week's coaches pep Talk comes to us from

1257
01:04:08,280 --> 01:04:12,840
Speaker 7: a twenty seventeen rant delivered by US soccer legend Alexi Lalas,

1258
01:04:13,120 --> 01:04:15,439
Speaker 7: and we're dedicating it to the Washington football team.

1259
01:04:16,120 --> 01:04:18,640
Speaker 6: It's dark days, indeed, but this is a time for

1260
01:04:18,840 --> 01:04:21,880
Speaker 6: leaders to step up. And so to the supposed leaders,

1261
01:04:21,920 --> 01:04:24,160
Speaker 6: I will say this clean it up or let's get

1262
01:04:24,240 --> 01:04:27,000
Speaker 6: someone who will. The US needs you to play better.

1263
01:04:27,320 --> 01:04:29,000
Speaker 6: Is this really as good as it gets? Because it's

1264
01:04:29,000 --> 01:04:31,360
Speaker 6: still not good enough. This is now all on you

1265
01:04:32,040 --> 01:04:33,400
Speaker 6: make us believe again.

1266
01:04:33,720 --> 01:04:34,040
Speaker 4: All right?

1267
01:04:34,120 --> 01:04:37,120
Speaker 7: So there's our coaches pep talk for the Wildcard weekend.

1268
01:04:37,160 --> 01:04:40,160
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1269
01:04:40,240 --> 01:04:43,520
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1270
01:04:43,640 --> 01:04:45,720
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1271
01:04:45,840 --> 01:04:48,520
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1272
01:04:48,600 --> 01:04:52,960
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1273
01:04:53,080 --> 01:04:55,880
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01:04:55,520 --> 01:04:56,640
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1275
01:04:57,120 --> 01:05:00,640
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1277
01:05:03,640 --> 01:05:06,960
Speaker 7: team scores a touchdown this weekend. As a reminder, you

1278
01:05:07,120 --> 01:05:10,080
Speaker 7: must be twenty one rolder and physically located in Colorado, Indiana,

1279
01:05:10,160 --> 01:05:11,640
Speaker 7: New Jersey, Nevada, or West Virginia.

1280
01:05:11,800 --> 01:05:12,960
Speaker 3: Please gamble responsibly.

1281
01:05:13,120 --> 01:05:15,160
Speaker 7: Have a gambling problem called twenty hundred five to two

1282
01:05:15,160 --> 01:05:17,560
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1283
01:05:17,560 --> 01:05:20,000
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1284
01:05:20,000 --> 01:05:22,080
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1285
01:05:22,120 --> 01:05:24,640
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1286
01:05:25,200 --> 01:05:27,200
Speaker 3: And that's going to do it for this week's episode.

1287
01:05:27,600 --> 01:05:30,000
Speaker 7: You can follow all the picks for the six pack

1288
01:05:30,080 --> 01:05:32,919
Speaker 7: on the Action Network app just search for Sunday six Pack.

1289
01:05:33,240 --> 01:05:37,480
Speaker 7: We will be back next Thursday to preview the divisional

1290
01:05:37,600 --> 01:05:41,000
Speaker 7: round and what should be an equally dope.

1291
01:05:40,960 --> 01:05:42,080
Speaker 3: Slate of games.

1292
01:05:42,520 --> 01:05:44,920
Speaker 7: And you can follow Stucky on Twitter at Stucky two

1293
01:05:45,080 --> 01:05:48,240
Speaker 7: and buy that same handle in the Action Network app

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01:05:48,280 --> 01:05:50,520
Speaker 7: to see his picks. And you can follow me on

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01:05:50,680 --> 01:05:53,720
Speaker 7: Twitter and in the app at Chris Raybond. All right,

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01:05:54,160 --> 01:05:55,880
Speaker 7: good luck this week, and let's get this sh money.

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Speaker 4: We're finished talking