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Speaker 3: Nine days to a possible government shut down and no
Speaker 3: breakthrough yet on a plan to avoid it. Welcome to
Speaker 3: the fastest show in politics, says the Speaker, spars with
Speaker 3: the Senate Majority leader overfunding the governments, operations, Israel, Ukraine
Speaker 3: funding and a lot more where that came from. We're
Speaker 3: joined in a moment by Congressman French Hill, the Republican
Speaker 3: from Arkansas, serves on the Financial Services, Foreign Affairs, and
Speaker 3: Intelligence committees, and is at the center of the debate overfunding,
Speaker 3: as well as the one around renewing the government's warrantless
Speaker 3: spying powers. We'll have the representative here live from Capitol
Speaker 3: Hill in just a moment. It was a big night
Speaker 3: for Democrats, a big election night, of course. We'll look
Speaker 3: at dem victories from Virginia to Kentucky to Ohio with
Speaker 3: our signature panel. Of course, a lot to discuss, as
Speaker 3: always with Bloomberg Politics contributors Genie Shanzano and Rick Davis.
Speaker 3: We'll keep you posted as well on Wall Street trading
Speaker 3: throughout the hour because we do want to start immediately
Speaker 3: in our conversation with Congressman french Hill, who is with
Speaker 3: us from Capitol Hill. Congressman, it's great to see you,
Speaker 3: and thank you for coming back to see us. Can
Speaker 3: you give us a status check here? And you've got
Speaker 3: guys like me asking you about a potential shutdown every
Speaker 3: day as you try to figure out a plan on this,
Speaker 3: but it's getting awfully close.
Speaker 4: What do you know?
Speaker 5: Well, Joe, it's good to be with you. Look, I've
Speaker 5: encouraged our speaker our conference. We need to pass a
Speaker 5: stop gap continuing resolution for a period of time so
Speaker 5: that we can get the rest of these spending bills
Speaker 5: completed in the House and the Senate and go to
Speaker 5: conference and enact twenty twenty four spending. I'm supportive of
Speaker 5: a variety of ways to do that. We could do
Speaker 5: one in a two step manner, part of it in
Speaker 5: early December and the balance of it in January. Do
Speaker 5: it all until January, but we need that time to
Speaker 5: go past the November seventeenth deadline. We lost a lot
Speaker 5: of time up here Joe messing around with just a
Speaker 5: handful of people kicking Kevin McCarthy out of his job.
Speaker 5: We've got to get those weeks of work back.
Speaker 3: Well, that's right, And are you referring to this idea
Speaker 3: of the laddered cr Congressman, in which there would be
Speaker 3: different expirations for various programs and agencies. Is that what's
Speaker 3: getting the most support in your conference?
Speaker 5: Personally, I think simpler is better, and therefore I think
Speaker 5: a straightforward stop gap continuing resolution until say the third
Speaker 5: week of January is probably the best thing to do
Speaker 5: to not facilitate the Senate trying to jam the House
Speaker 5: with a giant omnibus spending bill before Christmas, as is
Speaker 5: the typical work of the Senate. I think that's the
Speaker 5: best approach, But the idea of a two step approach
Speaker 5: could work if Senate Democrats and that Republicans want to
Speaker 5: do that. In other words, let's take defense, State and
Speaker 5: foreign operations, transportation, housing, urban development consensus bills and get
Speaker 5: those finished before December. But I think that takes both
Speaker 5: houses agreeing to want to do that.
Speaker 4: What's the point of doing that?
Speaker 3: That would essentially set up the idea of multiple cliffs,
Speaker 3: wouldn't it, Congressman, and I feel like we've had enough
Speaker 3: to last us for a while.
Speaker 5: Yeah, Well, look, we want to demonstrate that we don't
Speaker 5: want to have a government shut down, So in effect,
Speaker 5: the House would be funding government. They would just do
Speaker 5: that to try to provide an incentive to the Senate
Speaker 5: to move faster on the bills that they've already considered.
Speaker 5: That's the incentive. Another approach, Joe, would be simply to
Speaker 5: pass a continuing resolution through September thirtieth, twenty twenty four,
Speaker 5: and say that we're taking off the table a government
Speaker 5: shutdown and try to encourage the Senate to get their
Speaker 5: work done like that. We've passed eighty percent of spending
Speaker 5: here in the House. They've not yet completed their work
Speaker 5: in the Senate. But that's why we need this extra time.
Speaker 3: Well, that's one matter that you're dealing with. Of course,
Speaker 3: we've talked as well as Congressman about this supplemental budget
Speaker 3: request for Israel, for Ukraine, We've talked about attaching money
Speaker 3: for Taiwan and the border to that.
Speaker 4: That's actually the approach of.
Speaker 3: The White House and the Senate, and it seems like
Speaker 3: that's being picked apart here in the House, at least
Speaker 3: that was the case for Israel money. Are you supporting
Speaker 3: the idea of bringing each of these to the floor
Speaker 3: separately or will that be handled in conference and you'll
Speaker 3: have a very different looking bill that might include all
Speaker 3: of those matters, because we're getting close to not only
Speaker 3: a government shutdown, but the idea of delaying money to
Speaker 3: Israel and Ukraine is making a lot of people nervous.
Speaker 4: Congressman, for a lot of good reasons.
Speaker 5: Right, Well, of course, we passed nearly four billion dollars
Speaker 5: of Israel defense spending over almost five weeks ago in
Speaker 5: the House. The Senate could have taken that bill up
Speaker 5: and passed it weeks ago, and we weren't even We
Speaker 5: might not even be having this short term concern learn
Speaker 5: about Israel last week. You're right, the House did pass
Speaker 5: the fourteen billion dollar request for Israel across the House
Speaker 5: floor strong vote, got twelve Democratic votes with it as well,
Speaker 5: and in the House, I think we'll get a bipartisan
Speaker 5: vote for support for our other allies Ukraine and Taiwan.
Speaker 5: But there's no doubt that Republican members want to review
Speaker 5: that and make their recommendations on what that bill should contain.
Speaker 5: I was in a meeting for several hours this morning
Speaker 5: on that. So we are making progress here, and I
Speaker 5: know they are in the Senate as well, So I
Speaker 5: expect that we will have a bipartisan vote to support
Speaker 5: the effort by Ukraine to throw Putin out of their
Speaker 5: country and also to defend our ally Taiwan.
Speaker 3: Interesting because you know, we're hearing a slightly different tune
Speaker 3: from Chuck Schumer. He took to the floor this morning
Speaker 3: to say that this bill that Republicans in the House
Speaker 3: have put together tying Ukraine to border funding as a
Speaker 3: non starter in the Senate. I know that there's a
Speaker 3: lot of tough talk, and sometimes it's not exactly related
Speaker 3: to a final products. Congressman, and you know there's a
Speaker 3: lot of posturing right now, but do you worry that
Speaker 3: in fact, this is creating delays for Israel and Ukraine.
Speaker 5: Well, first of all, let's make sure we get the
Speaker 5: bill and the funding right to match the strategy of
Speaker 5: defending Taiwan against Chinese aggression, making sure Ukraine has the
Speaker 5: timely material they need to defeat Putin, and make sure
Speaker 5: Israel has timely stockpiles for their iron dome system and
Speaker 5: for their precision minisions. So let's get the substance right,
Speaker 5: then we can get this timing issue right. But I'm
Speaker 5: convinced that if we focus on the substance, we'll get
Speaker 5: the timing correct. And to Senator Schumer's point, well, you've
Speaker 5: got Senator Jim Langford of Oklahoma working actively over in
Speaker 5: the Senate on a border policy that they can get
Speaker 5: consensus on and get democratic support for. So look, I
Speaker 5: think it's very fluid in both houses. I think both
Speaker 5: houses are committed to the appropriate amount of funding to
Speaker 5: defend our allies and their efforts to authoritarian attacks and
Speaker 5: terrorist attacks.
Speaker 4: Do you think we're going to survive a government shut
Speaker 4: down then?
Speaker 3: Or there could be a couple of days before something
Speaker 3: is figured out in the short term.
Speaker 5: Look, I think that's a bad idea. We just don't
Speaker 5: need to do that. We should in my view, and
Speaker 5: we didn't do it this week. But I urge that
Speaker 5: we adopt a continuing resolution and get one that two
Speaker 5: hundred and eighteen Republicans could support and get that done
Speaker 5: and through the House this week or very early next week.
Speaker 5: And it doesn't appear that's going to happen, And so
Speaker 5: once again we move towards a deadline. But we need
Speaker 5: that sort of leadership, and that allows us to do
Speaker 5: the substantive work that we're elected to do in analyzing
Speaker 5: the right spending programs for all of fiscal twenty four
Speaker 5: and to have the time to debate those supplemental appropriations
Speaker 5: that are critical.
Speaker 3: For our allies, well as we consider policy that's critical
Speaker 3: to Americans everywhere. Congressman, there are two things that are
Speaker 3: getting not enough talk. I think you and I both
Speaker 3: agree on this. One would be the Farm Bill, and
Speaker 3: we'll get to that with an important renewal that could
Speaker 3: be coming as soon as next month. And then there
Speaker 3: is FISA, or seven oh two as some people call
Speaker 3: it short, that section seven oh two of the Foreign
Speaker 3: Intelligence Surveillance Act. You serve on the Intelligence Committee, and
Speaker 3: you know a lot more about this than certainly I
Speaker 3: do or most people here. But there is a bypart
Speaker 3: as an effort to renew what a lot of people
Speaker 3: see as a controversial measure, a warrantless spying by the US.
Speaker 4: Why does this need to happen?
Speaker 5: Well, the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, passed years ago, connected
Speaker 5: with the post nine to eleven world we live in
Speaker 5: is very important to America's national security. This is how
Speaker 5: we use the National Security Agency and other intelligence community
Speaker 5: participants to make sure we're monitoring people who might do
Speaker 5: US harm outside the United States. The controversial part is
Speaker 5: where an American citizen is talking to one of those
Speaker 5: suspects or terrorists or state actors outside the US, how
Speaker 5: do we listen in on their conversations? For example? This
Speaker 5: is where the reform needs to take place. And Darren
Speaker 5: Lohood of Illinois Andy Biggs of Arizona have been working
Speaker 5: together on a reform package that reflects the views of
Speaker 5: certainly the House Republicans and House Democrats have been involved
Speaker 5: as well, because we need the authorities of Section seven
Speaker 5: oh two under FISA to make sure that we have
Speaker 5: the intelligence resources to help protect against a homeland attack
Speaker 5: or protect against an attack against American interest outside the
Speaker 5: United States.
Speaker 3: Well, it's you know, it's not lost on me that
Speaker 3: the FBI Director Christopher Ray said in a hearing was
Speaker 3: believe it's just last week talking about the threats abroad
Speaker 3: that had spawned from the Hamas attack on Israel, that
Speaker 3: in fact, domestic terror threats were nearing a high as
Speaker 3: well right now, that the chatter is getting very noisy,
Speaker 3: and I wonder, Congressman, if that's your concern, if it's
Speaker 3: domestic threats to the US, or it's something altogether different,
Speaker 3: why Americans need to see this renewed well.
Speaker 5: FBI Director Ray last week before the Senate did say
Speaker 5: that it's very concerning to me that he would raise
Speaker 5: that level of concern that the information that they pick
Speaker 5: up through their intelligence sources indicate that America is the
Speaker 5: most at risk it's been since Isis rose in power
Speaker 5: in twenty fourteen. Some have even said the most at
Speaker 5: risk since nine to eleven. And here's how I feel
Speaker 5: about it. One, we can't can't let Fizas seven oh
Speaker 5: two expire and lose that authority. Secondly, we need to
Speaker 5: have all of our military on alert around the world.
Speaker 5: And thirdly, we have an open border, Joe. We have
Speaker 5: an open border where one hundred and sixty nine people
Speaker 5: on the terror watch list have come across the border
Speaker 5: in the last year. That's a problem, and so I
Speaker 5: think that's concerning too, who's coming across this millions of
Speaker 5: people entering the United States illegally. So I'm concerned about
Speaker 5: border security from that point of view. And who's gotten
Speaker 5: into our country local radicalization. You know, back in my
Speaker 5: hometown of Little Rock, we had a local radicalized Islamic
Speaker 5: fundamentalist in Memphis, Tennessee come over to Little Rock and
Speaker 5: attack our military recruiting base and kill a young man.
Speaker 5: And that's what I think. Also Directory is concerned about,
Speaker 5: so external threats across the border, external threats around to
Speaker 5: our military and our diplomats, and internal threats by people
Speaker 5: who are radicalized by terrorism.
Speaker 4: Will it be renewed by the end of the year.
Speaker 5: That's my hope. And here's the way to do it. Look,
Speaker 5: if we can't agree on the precise reforms to the process,
Speaker 5: let's renew it for a short period of time while
Speaker 5: we debate those reforms and get them passed. We cannot
Speaker 5: have a gap in that coverage.
Speaker 4: So it's a cr for seven oh two.
Speaker 5: Well, let's not call it that, Joe. We're trying to
Speaker 5: help get it past here.
Speaker 4: It's probably not going to help with anyone. Congressman. It's
Speaker 4: good to see you. Thank you for the time.
Speaker 3: Congressman french Hill with us live from Capitol Hill as
Speaker 3: always on Bloomberg and as I mentioned, brings a unique
Speaker 3: perspective to think about it, Foreign Affairs, Financial Services, and
Speaker 3: intelligence committees. He put them all together, and he's coming
Speaker 3: at this from a different position than a lot of lawmakers.
Speaker 3: As we assemble our panel now, Rick Davis and Genie
Speaker 3: Shanzino are with us. Bloomberg Politics contributors will start here
Speaker 3: with the matter of funding our government and the rest.
Speaker 3: You know, I left for a couple of days, guys,
Speaker 3: I thought you might have something figured out here. Maybe
Speaker 3: I should have mentioned that to the congressman. But Rick Davis,
Speaker 3: this lattered cr seems to be catching on. I don't
Speaker 3: get a sense that Friendshill prefers it, but there seems
Speaker 3: to be some residents here.
Speaker 4: Is that going to be the answer.
Speaker 6: Well, it's certainly something that the speaker's trying to sell
Speaker 6: inside the caucus right now, and it's even a question
Speaker 6: as to whether or not people like Frendshill and others
Speaker 6: are willing to walk down that aisle. I mean, it's
Speaker 6: kind of a compromise on top of compromises, It wrought
Speaker 6: with problems. It kind of guarantees a shutdown for government
Speaker 6: for some period of time, and it's completely dead on
Speaker 6: arrival in the Senate. So most people I've talked to
Speaker 6: have absolutely no idea how to actually implement this across
Speaker 6: the government, across Congress. And so most people are telling
Speaker 6: me they think that Senate is just going to do
Speaker 6: a clean CR and get it over there and kind
Speaker 6: of jam the House with it ultimately to just keep
Speaker 6: the government shut down from happening.
Speaker 4: Does this just slow things down?
Speaker 3: Genie, we're talking about the back and forth year on
Speaker 3: Israel funding, on Ukraine in this case, on government funding,
Speaker 3: dealing with approaches that everyone knows will not lead to
Speaker 3: a breakthrough or a law. Is that just the story
Speaker 3: of this period of time. We're just dragging everything until
Speaker 3: a longer wait cycle, and in some cases beyond what
Speaker 3: might be appropriate when you consider two hot wars being for.
Speaker 7: Yeah, and you know, the reality is this is how
Speaker 7: Congress usually operates. It takes a long time. They do
Speaker 7: come to deadlines. I think the Representative is absolutely right.
Speaker 7: The smart thing to do here is to pass a
Speaker 7: clean CR, negotiate the funding for Israel, Ukraine and the
Speaker 7: rest separately, and move this forward. Because let's remember this
Speaker 7: latter CR. And Joe, you're on fire. You're so right.
Speaker 7: This multiple cliffs is a great way to describe it.
Speaker 7: This is not only something that Democrats don't like, but
Speaker 7: Senate Republicans Susan Collins and others have said, this is
Speaker 7: just making the pain far worse. Let's get a clean
Speaker 7: cr let's get it through, Let's negotiate what needs to
Speaker 7: go out for Israel and Ukraine, and let's move forward.
Speaker 7: Is the smart thing to do. The concern is that
Speaker 7: may not happen, and it's really in the Speaker's hands
Speaker 7: at this point.
Speaker 3: Rick, can't you see the cable news channels, you know,
Speaker 3: with five or six countdown clocks all ending at different times.
Speaker 4: It's the multiple cliff show.
Speaker 3: It does make you wonder about the optics behind all
Speaker 3: of that and just how crazy you might want to
Speaker 3: drive your constituents.
Speaker 4: But is the alternative also a dead end for this speaker?
Speaker 3: Would Speaker Johnson be recalled or fired if he actually
Speaker 3: passed a clean CR with Democrats?
Speaker 6: You know, it's hard to tell about whether or not
Speaker 6: Johnson's honeymoon is over at this point. Certainly you've starting
Speaker 6: to see the sun set on that. Marjorie Taylor Green
Speaker 6: went after me yesterday, kind of shades of the old
Speaker 6: Congress again.
Speaker 4: And who knows whether or not.
Speaker 6: He can make it to the end of a term,
Speaker 6: you know, by January of twenty five. But right now
Speaker 6: he's got work cut out for him in front of him.
Speaker 6: This idea of splitting it up, it would only be
Speaker 6: a couple of different deadlines, one in early December and
Speaker 6: then one in the middle of January. But that being said,
Speaker 6: I don't even get the impression he's making progress with
Speaker 6: his own Republican caucus on it. So it's it's hard
Speaker 6: for me to understand how you're going to implement that
Speaker 6: and how you're even going to get time to vote
Speaker 6: on at this stage because the clock has really ticked
Speaker 6: down too far. And what I find quite amazing is
Speaker 6: absolutely no word from the White House on their preferences.
Speaker 6: I mean, they've they've not tried to push through the
Speaker 6: supplemental in any way that I've seen. They kind of
Speaker 6: just left it to Schumer in the Senate and and
Speaker 6: you know, he's got to buy part of the majority
Speaker 6: for it, that's not his problem.
Speaker 4: So unless the White House.
Speaker 6: Sort of puts some pressure on the House of Representatives,
Speaker 6: they're kind of going to let him just stew and
Speaker 6: I don't think that's good for the country. I think
Speaker 6: the president a way in and say get the cr done,
Speaker 6: and get the you know, get the government funded, and
Speaker 6: and let's go about the business of Passanese supplemental.
Speaker 3: Well, I'll tell you by this time next week, it's
Speaker 3: gonna feel real, Like I mentioned, only nine days to
Speaker 3: go here, and we'll be of course talking it out
Speaker 3: with Rick Davis and Genie Shanzino, our signature panel. Next,
Speaker 3: a big night for Democrats, a big election night. Rick
Speaker 3: and Jenie will weigh in on Democratic victories that might
Speaker 3: tell us a lot about the way forward in twenty
Speaker 3: twenty four, not to mention tonight's Republican presidential debate. We'll
Speaker 3: hit it all next with Rick and Jeanie. I'm Joe
Speaker 3: Matthew in Washington. This is Bloomberg. You're listening to the
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Speaker 3: Are we gonna start referring to Ohio as a swing
Speaker 3: state again, Is it going purple? Did you see this yesterday?
Speaker 3: Voters enshrining the right to an abortion in the state's
Speaker 3: constitution and legalizing cannabis in the same day. That was
Speaker 3: part of a good day for Democrats. You can certainly say,
Speaker 3: look no further than the state of Kentucky or the
Speaker 3: Democratic governor. Yes, Mitch McConnell's Kentucky the Democratic governor Andy
Speaker 3: Basheer wins reelection.
Speaker 8: Just look at what we were up against. Five superpacks,
Speaker 8: my opponent's super pack, Mitch McConnell's super pack, Ran Paul Superpack,
Speaker 8: the Club for Growth, the Republican Governors Association, all running
Speaker 8: ads full of hate and division. And you know what,
Speaker 8: we beat them all at the same time.
Speaker 3: From last night and a busy night, a string of
Speaker 3: wins here for Democrats and elections around the country. Let's
Speaker 3: reassemble our panel. Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano, Bloomberg Politics
Speaker 3: contributor has been really looking forward to what both of
Speaker 3: you have to say here. The narrative is a tough one, Rick,
Speaker 3: for Republicans, and I wonder your thoughts on a state
Speaker 3: like Kentucky. I'm not really sure I understand the basher
Speaker 3: phenomenon to begin with. But after what you just heard there,
Speaker 3: overcoming Mitch McConnell, overcoming the forces of gravity, how did
Speaker 3: he do it? And maybe more importantly, what does it
Speaker 3: mean for the greater fields in this next election cycle?
Speaker 6: And well, you know, like all things in politics, it
Speaker 6: all starts with money. He outspent his opponent by twenty
Speaker 6: million dollars, so that helps a lot. And he's been
Speaker 6: running as a governor who as a centrist. There's a
Speaker 6: lot of value with being a centrist politician today, especially
Speaker 6: in some states like Kentucky. He's seen the state through
Speaker 6: some really tough times and so every time we read
Speaker 6: a survey, the one thing that is in common is
Speaker 6: voters want the parties to work together to find solutions.
Speaker 6: And he's been a solution oriented governor, so give him
Speaker 6: his due. Getting elected a Democrat governor in red state
Speaker 6: is very rare. We talked about this earlier this week
Speaker 6: about how there are only five states left where there
Speaker 6: are split governance, where there are Republicans and Democrats in
Speaker 6: the statewide leadership, whether they're in Congress or in constitutional
Speaker 6: offices at the state level. So it's a rare bird.
Speaker 6: To find something like this, and the fact that he
Speaker 6: was able to do as well as he did is
Speaker 6: real kudos to him for you know, the kind of politician,
Speaker 6: the kind of politics he's playing well.
Speaker 3: The greater theme is certainly leaning in the direction of Democrats.
Speaker 3: In the last twenty four hours here, Genie, as we've
Speaker 3: seen in the midterms and a lot of special elections,
Speaker 3: the issue of abortion loomed large, and I suspect that
Speaker 3: you're connecting some dots here. It's not only what happened
Speaker 3: in Ohio yesterday with the abortion vote, but also what
Speaker 3: happened in the state of Virginia. We'll have Rick Way
Speaker 3: in on this too. He's certainly no stranger to Virginia politics.
Speaker 3: But people are looking at the impact that the issue
Speaker 3: of abortion had. Governor Glen Youngkin was talking about implementing
Speaker 3: a fifteen week ban, but also what that means in
Speaker 3: the bigger picture for twenty twenty four not just for
Speaker 3: Glen Youngkin, but also that issue of abortion and how
Speaker 3: it might play for Democrats.
Speaker 4: How do you see it?
Speaker 7: It has played very well for Democrats since the overturning
Speaker 7: of Roe and the passage of Dobbs. There's no question
Speaker 7: about that. Every time abortion has been front and center
Speaker 7: and on the ballot, the pro choice forces have come
Speaker 7: out and they have won. So now we see it
Speaker 7: in the red Ohio, it played big in Kentucky, and
Speaker 7: to your point, in Virginia. Interesting about Virginia, we saw
Speaker 7: Governor Youngkin trying to test out new language and a
Speaker 7: new way forward for Republicans and pro life forces, not
Speaker 7: to be defensive, but to go on the offensive, trying
Speaker 7: to talk about this fifteen week limit. The reality is though,
Speaker 7: that once again that did not succeed for him, as
Speaker 7: it hasn't for Republicans across the country, and that means
Speaker 7: we are probably going to see in twenty four Obviously
Speaker 7: Democrats make as much as they can out of this,
Speaker 7: but we're probably going to see Republicans walk back a
Speaker 7: little bit. We've already seen that from Donald Trump. Fascinating.
Speaker 7: Here is somebody who wants to have it both ways.
Speaker 7: He's saying he's a moderate, this issue is going to
Speaker 7: hurt Republicans. He's going to take a stepped back approach
Speaker 7: on this. And yet here's the same man who, when
Speaker 7: Dobbs was passed, claimed credit for stacking the Supreme Court.
Speaker 7: So how he is going to walk that line is
Speaker 7: going to be fascinating. But the reality is abortion has
Speaker 7: helped Democrats from the start when it's been the issue
Speaker 7: front and center. But I would be cautious about reading
Speaker 7: too much of these results into twenty four. The reality
Speaker 7: is is that a lot of what happened last night
Speaker 7: was about local and state issues. Andy Basheer is a
Speaker 7: very attractive candidate. He is a son of a former governor.
Speaker 7: To Rick's point, he's spent an awful lot of money
Speaker 7: and he has been effective. That said, look at what
Speaker 7: he talked about when he stood on that stage for
Speaker 7: the first time. He talked about infrastructure, a bill that
Speaker 7: joined Biden and McConnell down there in that state. So
Speaker 7: this does vode a little bright light for Biden and
Speaker 7: the Democrats, but they have a lot of work to
Speaker 7: do because you've got to get people out to the vote.
Speaker 7: This is a off your election with low turnout except
Speaker 7: for people who are incredibly interested in these issues like
Speaker 7: abortion in marijuana when they're on the ballot.
Speaker 4: Yeah, right, how about that.
Speaker 3: I did see a little bit of a line in Virginia.
Speaker 3: I have to admit, Rick, I don't know about you yesterday.
Speaker 3: But are people being fair to count out Glenn young
Speaker 3: Can in this cycle. Some had concocted this idea of
Speaker 3: Glenn Youngkin running the board on Tuesday night, a red
Speaker 3: wave through the legislature, and then making a late arrival
Speaker 3: on the presidential trail.
Speaker 9: Yeah.
Speaker 6: I kind of teased by Governor Youngin himself, right. I
Speaker 6: mean he set this up as, Hey, I'm going to
Speaker 6: put all my chips on win in the legislature. I
Speaker 6: want to i want to completely unified government the Senate
Speaker 6: and the House in Richmond. And and and I'm not
Speaker 6: going to make any decisions about my future politically until
Speaker 6: I do that. Well, he didn't do it, and so
Speaker 6: the decision about his future kind of got made for him.
Speaker 10: Uh.
Speaker 6: And this is always the problem with setting those kinds
Speaker 6: of markers in the future.
Speaker 9: Uh.
Speaker 6: The Virginia race was incredibly close. U Republics actually picked
Speaker 6: up a seat in the Senate and lost some in
Speaker 6: the House. And so the bottom line is Democrats now
Speaker 6: have both chambers in Richmond. Uh to style me any
Speaker 6: an initiative that the governor may have, you know, for
Speaker 6: the next two years of office.
Speaker 4: So he's he's now trapped in.
Speaker 6: Sort of political purgatory and to some degree of his
Speaker 6: own making. Look, there's no question abortion played big in
Speaker 6: this I would say looking at these Ohio results, even
Speaker 6: more so than Virginia, there are a lot of turnout
Speaker 6: and and it's actually almost historic for a off year election,
Speaker 6: an off off year election, and you know, three point
Speaker 6: nine million people voted in Ohio and four million voted
Speaker 6: in the midterm. That is outrageous. That's you know, the
Speaker 6: idea that an off year could meet a midterm is
Speaker 6: is really something you know, and I think what Republicans
Speaker 6: have to pay attention to is, you know, Democrats have
Speaker 6: occupied the vast majority of voters in the cities, but
Speaker 6: with this abortion referendum, they were able to move that
Speaker 6: way out into the suburbs. And to me, that is
Speaker 6: something that could play important in the twenty twenty four election.
Speaker 6: But three groups voters under thirty and independent voters and
Speaker 6: women all vastly supported this abortion referendum in Georgia or
Speaker 6: in Ohio. But all of them have in those cases.
Speaker 6: In Ohio a thirty nine percent approval rating of Joe Biden.
Speaker 6: So you can't necessarily draw the conclusion because they're turning
Speaker 6: out big for abortion in Ohio, that they're going to
Speaker 6: necessarily do the same thing for Joe Biden as president.
Speaker 3: I'd be curious to ask you about the Trump effects
Speaker 3: in our remaining moment here, Jeanie. There was actually one
Speaker 3: big Republican win last night. May not have surprised anybody,
Speaker 3: but Mississippi Governor Tate Reeves beat Brandon Presley, a cousin
Speaker 3: or a nephew of Elvis Presley or something there. But
Speaker 3: Donald Trump went on truth so that Daniel Cameron lost.
Speaker 3: That's the one who lost to Basher in Kentucky because
Speaker 3: he could not alleviate the stench of Mitch McConnell. He
Speaker 3: goes on to write, Tate Reeves, on the other hand,
Speaker 3: Surge will win after my involvement. Congratulations to Tate. Was
Speaker 3: this a win or a loss for Donald Trump overall?
Speaker 4: Jeannie?
Speaker 7: In his mind everything is a win, Joe, Matthew, But
Speaker 7: you know it was a loss.
Speaker 10: Listen.
Speaker 7: He endorsed Cameron as well, so I don't know why
Speaker 7: the stench falls on Mitch McConnell. But another great spot
Speaker 7: actually for Republicans, we have to say, is New York.
Speaker 7: Once again, they win the county executive in Suffolk, they
Speaker 7: win a city council seat in the Bronx New York.
Speaker 7: Because the focus has been on crime has been something
Speaker 7: that Republicans have been able to make hay of up here,
Speaker 7: and that is going to be something we're going to
Speaker 7: see a battle over in twenty four so, don't you know,
Speaker 7: Democrats have to keep their eye on that. Abortion huge
Speaker 7: for Democrats, but crime and the issue of immigration and
Speaker 7: a legal migration continues to play big for Republicans rather
Speaker 7: in places you wouldn't expect it, like my home state.
Speaker 7: So we have to keep our eye on that because
Speaker 7: the numbers there are pretty astonishing, continuing what we saw
Speaker 7: for Republicans in the midterm.
Speaker 4: Day after Analysis with Rick and Jeannie.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us
Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern.
Speaker 2: On Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg
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Speaker 3: The House of Representatives still trying to figure a way
Speaker 3: to fund government operations beyond next Friday, votes to censure
Speaker 3: the lone Palestinian Americans serving in the House. Rashida Talib,
Speaker 3: the congresswoman from Michigan. This is not the first attempt
Speaker 3: that we've seen here put together by a member of
Speaker 3: the Republican majority. In the case of yesterday, it did
Speaker 3: get to the floor and it passed.
Speaker 9: On this vote.
Speaker 11: The yea's are two one hundred and thirty four and
Speaker 11: the nays are one hundred and eighty eight, with four
Speaker 11: answering present, the resolution is adopted.
Speaker 3: It's the new Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson.
Speaker 6: Without objection.
Speaker 4: The motion to reconsider is laid on the table, and
Speaker 4: there you have it. Two thirty four one eight.
Speaker 3: This goes back to comments made by the congresswoman and
Speaker 3: in fact, a video that was posted on Twitter, which
Speaker 3: I will always call Twitter, I guess that showed pro
Speaker 3: Palestinian protesters chanting from the river to the sea as reassemble.
Speaker 3: Our panel with Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano Bloomberg Politics
Speaker 3: contributors for their take.
Speaker 4: On this, Genie.
Speaker 3: We heard a pronounced debate on the floor of the House.
Speaker 3: There were a lot of Democrats who came to Rashida
Speaker 3: Salib's defense, talking about this as a freedom of speech issue.
Speaker 4: Should she have been censured?
Speaker 7: You know, it's really divided the Democratic Party in an
Speaker 7: important way. I think there's two things. I'm of two
Speaker 7: minds here. On the one hand, I agree completely with
Speaker 7: Hakeem Jeffries, the Minority leader, when he says that the
Speaker 7: statements that she made, particularly in that video you referenced,
Speaker 7: or that she didn't make them, she released them in
Speaker 7: this video, are deplorable. They are slogans that are destructive.
Speaker 7: They do not at all support what we hope would
Speaker 7: be the end for everybody, which would be some kind
Speaker 7: of two state solution. They are polarizing, their divisive, They
Speaker 7: incite violence. So it is really really troubling to see
Speaker 7: that released by a congress person that said. I am
Speaker 7: of the opinion that when you go and you censure,
Speaker 7: you have to be very carefully. You're doing it only
Speaker 7: for reasons that are the most most serious. And I
Speaker 7: agree actually with Ken Buck and some of the other
Speaker 7: Republicans on this. We have to be careful. We don't
Speaker 7: get into a tip for tat where we are censuring
Speaker 7: people on the other side because we don't agree with them.
Speaker 7: I don't agree with Rashida to leave here, and by
Speaker 7: the same token, I don't think we should make censure
Speaker 7: a weapon that is used to try to hold people
Speaker 7: up whose speech we don't appreciate. So I'm of those
Speaker 7: two minds here. I wouldn't have voted for the censer.
Speaker 7: I side with Buck on that, but the statements are deplorable,
Speaker 7: and I'm glad. Hakeem Jeffreys came out clearly and said
Speaker 7: that it does though divide the Democratic Party. But you
Speaker 7: did have twenty two Democrats vote to censure her all
Speaker 7: the same.
Speaker 3: Yep, that's right, and ken Buck was one of four Republicans,
Speaker 3: as you mentioned, voting against the measure. Rashida Tsalib spoke
Speaker 3: to her own defense on the floor.
Speaker 12: Here she is speaking up to save lies, mister chair,
Speaker 12: No matter faith, no matter ethnicity, should not be controversial
Speaker 12: in this chamber. The cries of the Palestinian and Palestinian
Speaker 12: and Israeli children sound no different to me. Why What
Speaker 12: I don't understand is why the cries of Palestinians sound
Speaker 12: different to you all?
Speaker 4: Is that a fair question? Does it deserve an answer?
Speaker 1: Rick?
Speaker 9: Yeah?
Speaker 6: Look, I think the answer was she got censured, and
Speaker 6: she didn't get censured by Margerie Taylor Greene censure resolution
Speaker 6: and talked about insurrection and things like that. I mean
Speaker 6: Republicans said no to that, Democrats said no to that.
Speaker 6: That was fine, but she was censured for what she said.
Speaker 6: And sure, sometimes she says nice things like what she
Speaker 6: just said about the value of life. None other times
Speaker 6: she says things that are incredibly destructive and that promote
Speaker 6: political violence. And we talk a lot about promotion of
Speaker 6: political violence on this show, and I think the Congress
Speaker 6: did the right thing by putting her in her place,
Speaker 6: centering her. It's only been done, you know, a couple
Speaker 6: dozen times in the history. But when you are promoting
Speaker 6: a chant of from the River to the Sea, which
Speaker 6: means the complete destruction of Israel, and you've sided with
Speaker 6: Hamas in the past, then you are promoting political violence,
Speaker 6: and that we got to have zero tolerance for that.
Speaker 6: And frankly, if anybody else does the same thing, they
Speaker 6: should be censured to.
Speaker 3: We mentioned it a moment ago. Twenty two Democrats chose
Speaker 3: to vote in favor of censure, Genie. They're all from
Speaker 3: different states. There were some New Yorkers in there. You've
Speaker 3: got Debbie Wasserman Schultz in Florida. Some of them you
Speaker 3: might have considered predictable, some of them not. What were
Speaker 3: they thinking of.
Speaker 9: You know.
Speaker 7: I think they are seeing what she released in the
Speaker 7: statement she's made as calls for the complete destruction of Israel,
Speaker 7: and even though she is a member of their party
Speaker 7: and they support her right to speak, they are very,
Speaker 7: very concerned about the rhetoric and the violence that can
Speaker 7: ensue as a result. You know, I think in my mind,
Speaker 7: what I try to think about is what should we
Speaker 7: do to advance what we all want. She's absolutely right,
Speaker 7: it was a heartbreaking statement. You just played What is
Speaker 7: happening to innocent civilians and Palestine in Gaza strip rather
Speaker 7: is so heartbreaking. There is no difference between Israeli and
Speaker 7: Palestinian children, or any children or people that said we
Speaker 7: have to expect a good deal from our leaders in
Speaker 7: the United States that they are going to be productive.
Speaker 7: And I think the members who voted to censure her
Speaker 7: on the Democratic side are looking at this as calls
Speaker 7: her violence that they just cannot go on the record
Speaker 7: either turning a blind eye to or supporting, you know,
Speaker 7: and this is I don't think she is likely surprised
Speaker 7: by this. I do think this is a really important
Speaker 7: and difficult conversation to have all around. But violence does
Speaker 7: have to be condemned, and we do need to think
Speaker 7: about humanitarian assistance and solutions and being productive and violent
Speaker 7: rhetoric is not the way to do that.
Speaker 3: Well, in our thirty seconds remaining, I don't want to
Speaker 3: cut you off here, Rick, but I wonder if you
Speaker 3: think this puts it to bed at least as a
Speaker 3: public sort of fissure in the Democratic conference in the House.
Speaker 6: It could just depends upon her conduct and her speech
Speaker 6: between now and then. It certainly has put the squad,
Speaker 6: you know, AOC and her team on defense and certainly
Speaker 6: not a good thing for going into an election year.
Speaker 3: Well yeah, members of the squad were standing with her
Speaker 3: or sitting right around her to support her while she
Speaker 3: was making that floor speech in her defense, Rick Davis
Speaker 3: and Jeanie Shanzano, we don't shy away from the tough
Speaker 3: ones here. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the
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Speaker 1: The Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen I have
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Speaker 1: Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 3: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington this day after the election
Speaker 3: night that went pretty well for Democrats. Is the narrative,
Speaker 3: and we're going to talk to Wendy and Mark Niquette
Speaker 3: about that in just a moment. As Andy Basheer takes
Speaker 3: a victory lap, Daniel Cameron says, good night, contact.
Speaker 11: That you pray for Governor Basheer and his team and
Speaker 11: for all of our commonwealth because at the end of
Speaker 11: the day, win, loser, drawl. What ultimately matters is that
Speaker 11: we know that christ is on the throne.
Speaker 3: Christ is on the throne, he said, And we thought
Speaker 3: Trump was on the throne. This is Cameron when he
Speaker 3: won the primary.
Speaker 10: A big thank you to President Donald J. Trump for
Speaker 10: his support and here's endorsement of this campaign. Let me
Speaker 10: just say, let me just say, the Trump culture of
Speaker 10: winning is alive and well in Kentucky.
Speaker 3: Except it wasn't last night. As it turned out, Andy
Speaker 3: Basheer wins a remarkable race as a Democrat in Kentucky.
Speaker 3: And that's where we want to start our conversation with
Speaker 3: Wendy Benjamins in Bloomberg of course, Washington Senior Editor and
Speaker 3: Mark Niquette is with us from the great state of Ohio.
Speaker 3: Bloomberg Politics Reporter, It's great to see you both here. Wendy,
Speaker 3: your thoughts on that the takeaways for Donald Trump on
Speaker 3: a night like that, He took to Truth by the
Speaker 3: Way and said that Daniel Cameron lost because of the
Speaker 3: taint or the stench or something of Mitch McConnell. Mitch mcconne,
Speaker 3: Oh my goodness, what about the stench of Donald Trump.
Speaker 13: Well, yes, but Donald Trump doesn't think there's an He's
Speaker 13: none electoral.
Speaker 3: Did he play a big role in this campaign, because
Speaker 3: we're going to next talk about how Democrats had a
Speaker 3: big night.
Speaker 13: No, no, I mean Donald Trump really has his hands
Speaker 13: full with the trial the New York fraud Trilley who
Speaker 13: scores on the stand on Monday. So he was not
Speaker 13: really campaigning for this one at all, and I'm not
Speaker 13: sure it often helped. Remember in the midterms in last year,
Speaker 13: the people he campaigned for and the most MAGA candidates lost.
Speaker 13: And I think overall, what this election told us last
Speaker 13: night was that voters are certainly in favor of abortion rights,
Speaker 13: They are certainly interested in the Democratic brand, whether they are,
Speaker 13: according to other polls, interested in Joe Biden and Kamala
Speaker 13: Harris as the big unanswered question.
Speaker 4: Well, that's right.
Speaker 3: I used this race in Kentucky as an entry point mark.
Speaker 3: But I wonder your thoughts on some of the bigger
Speaker 3: picture takeaways from yesterday. When we look at the state
Speaker 3: of Virginia, for instance, a lot of folks thought that
Speaker 3: would be a red wave that sent Glenn Younkin running
Speaker 3: into the presidential campaign. Neither happening here. And of course
Speaker 3: what happened in Ohio. Wendy mentioned abortion, and that does
Speaker 3: seem to be a big part of the takeaway from
Speaker 3: races we saw in all of these states. What's your
Speaker 3: view today.
Speaker 14: I don't know how you cannot say this was a
Speaker 14: good night for Democrats. In Virginia, Governor Younkin went all
Speaker 14: in to keep Republican control of the House of Delegates
Speaker 14: and flipped the Senate. This is going to be his springboard,
Speaker 14: I think, to a run for president in twenty twenty eight.
Speaker 9: That didn't work out.
Speaker 14: In Virginia, the Democratic governor won what is clearly a
Speaker 14: very conservative red state in a year where it shouldn't
Speaker 14: have been good for Democrats given President Biden's low popularity,
Speaker 14: and in Ohio, you had this issue to enshrine abortion
Speaker 14: rights in the state constitution passed by thirteen percentage points
Speaker 14: in a state that Donald Trump won twice. Are trending
Speaker 14: a red state now, and it just clearly demonstrated that
Speaker 14: in a case of abortion, it's an issue that can
Speaker 14: mobilize Democrats and independents and works against Republicans. Of Republicans
Speaker 14: haven't figured out how to message abortion after the Supreme
Speaker 14: Court decision overturning abortion and abortion rights. And you know,
Speaker 14: clearly the results in Ohio showed that, you know, Republicans,
Speaker 14: particularly suburban women, Republican women, are going to turn out
Speaker 14: and vote for abortion rights.
Speaker 13: Well, in the Mark, you're absolutely right. But the yellow
Speaker 13: flashing sign for Democrats, Joe, is that in November twenty
Speaker 13: twenty four, when it's probably but not necessarily going to
Speaker 13: be Biden and Trump, abortion rights will not be specifically
Speaker 13: on the ballot maybe in a couple of states, but
Speaker 13: you know that's going then. It's really not about an
Speaker 13: issue that as Mark said, everyone is many many voters
Speaker 13: are getting behind. It's going to be that choice that
Speaker 13: very few voters really want to make.
Speaker 3: It could be six states if those ballot measures I
Speaker 3: guess are approved. So it's not like the whole country
Speaker 3: is going to be dealing with this as an issue.
Speaker 3: To your point, although the overhang of Roe, That's true,
Speaker 3: and that national effect is still very real, is it not?
Speaker 13: It is and the White House or the Biden Reelette
Speaker 13: campaign has decided to make Vice President Kamala Harris the
Speaker 13: spokeswoman for abortion rights, and she is an effective advocate
Speaker 13: on it. She can bring it out. She herself is
Speaker 13: not as popular as even Joe Biden, I think, but
Speaker 13: she can really speak to abortion in a way that
Speaker 13: Joe Biden is very uncomfortable speaking about it because he's
Speaker 13: always been a little doubting on abortion rights.
Speaker 3: Anyway, Mark Niquette, Wendy mentioned the Democrat brand and it
Speaker 3: wasn't only abortion in Ohio, it was cannabis. What do
Speaker 3: you make of these takeaways when you put them together,
Speaker 3: and does it reshape your view of Ohio.
Speaker 9: Not for the general in a presidential race.
Speaker 14: I mean, I think Ohio will not be in play
Speaker 14: in the presidential race, but I think it shows how
Speaker 14: these issues can be motivating factors for turnout. Abortion in particular,
Speaker 14: I think will be used in Ohio to try and
Speaker 14: increase Democratic turnout and you know, maybe work against some
Speaker 14: of the suburban vote. The supporters of Issue one think
Speaker 14: having the separate ballot issue to legalize recreational marijuana help
Speaker 14: drive turnout of younger voters, which helped them on the
Speaker 14: abortion issue. But the abortion results were very interesting. In Ohio,
Speaker 14: you had eighteen counties that voted for Trump in twenty
Speaker 14: twenty support the abortion rights amendment and in some cases,
Speaker 14: you know, pretty.
Speaker 9: In a big way.
Speaker 14: And what's interesting about that is a lot of these
Speaker 14: counties are suburban counties, like around Columbus, the state capitol,
Speaker 14: and in northeast Ohio, we're sort of working class voters
Speaker 14: who used to be Democrats but came over to Trump
Speaker 14: and are pretty strong Trump supporters.
Speaker 9: They went for the abortion issue.
Speaker 14: So it just kind of shows how abortion can be
Speaker 14: a factor as an issue in the race. But you know,
Speaker 14: as you said before, it's not going to be a
Speaker 14: race about abortion. It's going to be a race about
Speaker 14: the presidency in particular a choice between Trump and Biden.
Speaker 3: Well, as we pull this into a bigger conversation about
Speaker 3: twenty twenty four, we had the New York Times sianopol
Speaker 3: which freaked out a lot of Democrats here in Washington
Speaker 3: for lack of a better term, Wendy, and I'm looking
Speaker 3: at Marquette University today. This is specific to Wisconsin and
Speaker 3: these matchups Nikki Haley fifty three, Biden forty four DeSantis
Speaker 3: Biden forty eight. Not quite the spread here, but Biden
Speaker 3: still beats Donald Trump. And I wonder how that will
Speaker 3: inform what you're going to be looking for tonight in
Speaker 3: this Republican debate, because the two aiming for second at
Speaker 3: least in this hypothetical in Wisconsin could beat Jobiden absolutely.
Speaker 13: And that is what Nikki Haley's going to come out
Speaker 13: swinging on a lot of issues on this because she
Speaker 13: is ascendant in the polls as Dissantis sort of either
Speaker 13: stays the same or drops, but she really thinks she
Speaker 13: could be the last person standing if Donald Trump goes down.
Speaker 13: One of the things that was interesting in that New
Speaker 13: York Times senapol is that voters, especially independents, who would
Speaker 13: vote for Trump over Biden while he's under indictment, would
Speaker 13: change their vote once if he ever became a convicted felon.
Speaker 13: That convicted felon, maybe the bar switch people off Donald Trump.
Speaker 13: And if that's the case, six percent is actually enough
Speaker 13: in a close election to beat it. So if he
Speaker 13: becomes a convicted felon, let's say it happens before the
Speaker 13: convention somehow, in some political movie that I can write someday,
Speaker 13: you know, Nikki Haley becomes the Republican nominee, then Bind's
Speaker 13: in real trouble.
Speaker 3: Mark, what are your thoughts in helping our listeners and
Speaker 3: viewers prepare for this debate tonight?
Speaker 4: It's going to be the third round.
Speaker 3: We've got five candidates on stage and with the backdrop
Speaker 3: that we just laid out here, who will have your
Speaker 3: attention tonight in Miami?
Speaker 9: Well, it looks like.
Speaker 14: It's going to be a fight between Ron DeSantis and
Speaker 14: Nicky Haley. Is when he said for second place to
Speaker 14: try to be sort of the Trump alternative. So it'd
Speaker 14: be interesting, you know, to what level that sparring actually
Speaker 14: takes place. But I'll be interested to see, you know,
Speaker 14: how Nicky Haley tries to use the issue of abortion
Speaker 14: in this debate. I mean, she has more, you know,
Speaker 14: stick out a more moderate position on abortion than Ron DeSantis,
Speaker 14: who supported a you know, a six week heartbeat bill
Speaker 14: U band kind of issue. And I think the results
Speaker 14: from last night sort of suggests that a majority of
Speaker 14: voters are towards the more moderate, you know, restrictions on
Speaker 14: abortion rather than you know, the more strict six week bands.
Speaker 13: Well, and after last night, it'll be really interesting to
Speaker 13: see if Nikki Haley and some of those others are
Speaker 13: as unapologetically pro life as they have coined themselves in
Speaker 13: previous debates, knowing that it's a loser even in places
Speaker 13: like Ohio and Kansas and other conservative rock red ribbed
Speaker 13: states that have rock ribbed red states I guess that
Speaker 13: have that have been trying abortion rights.
Speaker 3: Well, it's gonna be something to watch this evening the
Speaker 3: debate in the spin room, and I appreciate your coming
Speaker 3: over to talk to us about it. Wendy Benjaminson with
Speaker 3: us from Washington, Mark Niquette from Ohio. After an important
Speaker 3: election night, Thanks to both of you for the insights
Speaker 3: today on Bloomberg Sound On, as we add the voice
Speaker 3: of another expert here and in fact, someone who knows
Speaker 3: these poll numbers probably a lot better than we do,
Speaker 3: and as in fact prepared a presidential candidate for a
Speaker 3: debate like this. That would be Jim Messina. Jim, it's
Speaker 3: great to see you. Welcome back to Bloomberg Sound On.
Speaker 3: It's a pleasure, of course, CEO the Messina Group, former
Speaker 3: Deputy chief of staff to President Obama.
Speaker 4: This is a tough world.
Speaker 3: I guess if you're competing for second, my goodness, the
Speaker 3: front runner doesn't even show up. So what's the strategy
Speaker 3: tonight for Aronda Santis or a Nikki Haley?
Speaker 4: What would you tell him?
Speaker 15: Well, look, I agree with Wendy. I think it's important
Speaker 15: tonight to stand out. You are competing for one lane
Speaker 15: and one lane only, which is to be the Trump alternative.
Speaker 15: And what is chilling these guys right now, Joe, is
Speaker 15: that there's too many of them, and so they need
Speaker 15: some these guys to get out. They were happy that
Speaker 15: Pence got out last week.
Speaker 9: They need some more of these folks. And so they
Speaker 9: got to do two things.
Speaker 15: They got to look presidential and look like they can
Speaker 15: do this, and they need to stand up to the
Speaker 15: other potentials who are going to swing at them, and
Speaker 15: you know, try not to.
Speaker 9: Have an oops moment.
Speaker 15: And so if I was advising either DeSantis or Haley,
Speaker 15: I'd say stick to your own message first, kind of
Speaker 15: shuck off the back and forth and don't let them
Speaker 15: hit you and just try to look at the electorate
Speaker 15: and make your case why you should be the Republican
Speaker 15: nominee for president.
Speaker 3: Nikki Haley's got a major differentiator now that Mike Pence
Speaker 3: is out of the race, Jim, and that's firsthand experience
Speaker 3: with foreign policy. Wouldn't you just talk about Israel and
Speaker 3: Ukraine and Russia and China all night?
Speaker 15: Yes and no, Joe on one hand, he asked, But
Speaker 15: you know she doesn't agree with the majority of her
Speaker 15: party on a couple of those issues, right. You know,
Speaker 15: she's always been more pro engagement in the modern Trump
Speaker 15: Republican Party who doesn't want to be in some of
Speaker 15: those places, and so that makes her messaging more difficult.
Speaker 15: I would absolutely attempt to, you know, talk about leadership
Speaker 15: and move this to that. But you know, voters tend
Speaker 15: to care way more about what you're going to do
Speaker 15: for them and why they should be excited about you,
Speaker 15: and part of primaries is about excitement.
Speaker 9: And so she's got.
Speaker 15: To figure a way to kind of continue to be
Speaker 15: the candidate of the moment, which she's done really good
Speaker 15: at the Other thing is I'm glad you raised that
Speaker 15: Wisconsin pul earlier. You know, the thing that's propping up
Speaker 15: Trump right now is the belief that he can be Biden.
Speaker 15: And now there's starting to be data out there in Wisconsin, which,
Speaker 15: for your viewers and listeners, is now the most important
Speaker 15: state in America. Wisconsin is the state where when you
Speaker 15: run computer simulations, that's the state that gives you the presidency.
Speaker 15: And the fact that Donald Trump can't win that state
Speaker 15: right now, but Haley and Santas can't. If they can't
Speaker 15: make that sale to the Republican base, there's no sale
Speaker 15: to be made. I still think this primary is already
Speaker 15: over and they're competing for the VP. Joe, But you know,
Speaker 15: tonight's tonight they've got to move here.
Speaker 3: You do believe the primary is over? You just answered
Speaker 3: my next question. So this whole exercise tonight is one
Speaker 3: in vain just in case something bad happens to Donald Trump.
Speaker 15: Dolland Trump has the largest lead of any primary candidate
Speaker 15: in our modern lifetime. Now, let's not get too excited
Speaker 15: about that. The previous record holder was Hillary Clinton over
Speaker 15: Barack Obama in two thousand and eight.
Speaker 9: I don't think.
Speaker 15: We're going to compare the Santas and Nikki to Barack Obama.
Speaker 15: So you know, I'm to quote the great movie line,
Speaker 15: there's still a chance, Joe, but I you know, he's
Speaker 15: over fifty in all these In Ron DeSantis' home state
Speaker 15: of Florida, there was a pull out yesterday that showed
Speaker 15: Trump leading him by thirty nine points, and so that
Speaker 15: shows you the hill. These folks are climbing up, and
Speaker 15: at some point their version of me is going to
Speaker 15: walk in the room and say, hey, can we have
Speaker 15: a private conversation. Do you think you're running for president
Speaker 15: or do you think you're running for vice president? Because
Speaker 15: that is a whole different thing about what you say
Speaker 15: about Donald Trump.
Speaker 4: So you're saying there's a chance.
Speaker 3: Spending time with Jim Messina, I was taken by a
Speaker 3: tweet from Larry Sabadow Jim, he's going to join us
Speaker 3: later on today on Bloomberg TV, and he was reacting
Speaker 3: to the Virginia election results, which I'd love to hear
Speaker 3: from you on. Of course, a lot of folks thought
Speaker 3: this would be a make or break situation for Glenn Youngkin.
Speaker 3: A lot of folks thought it would make a potential
Speaker 3: presidential campaign if Glenn Youngkin the governor could run the
Speaker 3: table turn the legislature read the opposite, of course happened,
Speaker 3: and as Sabbado writes on Twitter, clearance sale, he writes,
Speaker 3: Jim All Youngin for President twenty four merchandise of free
Speaker 3: my pillow comes with all purchases over a dollar, no returns.
Speaker 3: Did Glenn Youngkin just surrender his chances to be president?
Speaker 9: Oh? Absolutely?
Speaker 15: And I think he kind of had already because he
Speaker 15: wasn't running.
Speaker 4: And is that just for this cycle or ever?
Speaker 15: Oh, I don't know about ever. Voters don't have that long.
Speaker 15: But you know, he was styled as the guy that
Speaker 15: could unite the party, that the conservatives could get behind,
Speaker 15: but then the moderates who could win in the suburbs.
Speaker 15: And you know the problem you and I have talked
Speaker 15: in the past about abortion, and that this was like,
Speaker 15: you know, the Republicans have been chasing that car for
Speaker 15: a long time and then finally the dog.
Speaker 9: Caught the car.
Speaker 15: Well, the theory was Youngkin had a new message on
Speaker 15: abortion that could appeal to the suburbs and they could
Speaker 15: win on And that message was clearly and roundly repudiated
Speaker 15: last night, both in Virginia and Ohio. And so not
Speaker 15: only did they catch the car Joe, the car blew
Speaker 15: up on them.
Speaker 9: And so now.
Speaker 15: Everyone one is sitting here saying, what are we going
Speaker 15: to say about abortion? Because the message we thought we
Speaker 15: had just didn't work in a place that we all
Speaker 15: thought it should. And Yonkin is going to take a
Speaker 15: whole bunch of that responsibility from a whole bunch of
Speaker 15: very angry Republicans today.
Speaker 4: Well, yeah, he was upfront about it.
Speaker 3: He told people that if Republicans took power, they would
Speaker 3: implement a fifteen week ban.
Speaker 4: So let's extrapolate this.
Speaker 3: You're preparing a twenty four campaign for president, or you're
Speaker 3: advising at Jim Messina, what did you learn last night
Speaker 3: that you might not have known otherwise that you can
Speaker 3: actionalize in the next year.
Speaker 15: Two things, One, it's interesting to look at who turned
Speaker 15: out last night. There wasn't massive turnout in these places.
Speaker 15: Both parties didn't get the historic turnout they got in
Speaker 15: the last couple elections. What that means is that both
Speaker 15: parties are going to have to worry a little bit
Speaker 15: more about turning out their own voters. And the second
Speaker 15: thing with you and I just talked about, Joe, is
Speaker 15: I think both parties were waiting to see if abortion
Speaker 15: was still an issue. It clearly was an issue in Dobbs.
Speaker 15: It clearly was an issue in the twenty twenty two midterms.
Speaker 15: But you know, there was some view in both parties
Speaker 15: that maybe that issue had gone away, not gone away. Absolutely,
Speaker 15: look at the Ohio number thirteen points, like nothing passes
Speaker 15: by thirteen points.
Speaker 9: It passed by more than the free weed initiative.
Speaker 15: Like come on, and then Pennsylvania spring court race last night,
Speaker 15: and then in all those Virginia.
Speaker 9: Louden County seats.
Speaker 15: So the other thing I learned is both parties are
Speaker 15: going to be talking about abortion next year as well.
Speaker 4: You mentioned Louden County.
Speaker 3: Not to get too hyper local for our listeners around
Speaker 3: the country and around the world, but trends rights were
Speaker 3: just a very big deal in that area.
Speaker 4: It helped to get Glenn Youngkin elected.
Speaker 3: In fact, on having parents become more involved in curriculum
Speaker 3: and policies like these, was that a rebuke to some extent?
Speaker 4: How do you read into it?
Speaker 15: Yeah, I think I'm not sure it was a rebuke.
Speaker 9: I mean it could be.
Speaker 15: I think that largely abortion became a bigger issue. You know,
Speaker 15: I also think that Youonkin wasn't.
Speaker 9: On the ballot.
Speaker 15: You know, this is the problem that Republicans have had
Speaker 15: with Trump. It's a problem we had as Democrats without
Speaker 15: Obama on the ballot. Can you turn your voters out
Speaker 15: without you on the ballot? And so far the data
Speaker 15: for both parties is it's hard And last night those
Speaker 15: Yonkin swing voters in Loudon County went Democrat. And you know,
Speaker 15: and so they're both parts are looking up today to say,
Speaker 15: is Virginia really a swing state in the presidential election?
Speaker 3: Well, we're looking at as many as six states based
Speaker 3: on our reporting, that could have abortion on the ballot
Speaker 3: in twenty twenty four. Obviously it's not going to be
Speaker 3: a national vote, but it could be a national issue.
Speaker 3: To your point, to what extent did Joe Biden's successful
Speaker 3: outcomes state by state depend on abortion being on the ballot,
Speaker 3: It's a great question.
Speaker 15: I don't think that's how it works, because I think
Speaker 15: it doesn't need to be in the ballot. I think,
Speaker 15: you know, this will be the first election since jobs
Speaker 15: where the presidential election could be a referendum on abortion,
Speaker 15: because you're going to have very clear difference. Trump has
Speaker 15: said repeatedly, you know I'm proud to appointed these judges.
Speaker 15: I'm the guy who got rid of rov Wade. Biden
Speaker 15: said repeatedly, I want to pass the bill to codify
Speaker 15: a ro v Wade. And in those swing states, to
Speaker 15: your point, it doesn't matter if it's on the ballot,
Speaker 15: it's going to be a choice between two very different
Speaker 15: theories of the case to presidential campaigns.
Speaker 9: And these swing women voters.
Speaker 15: That you know, decide presidential elections in Montgomery County in Pennsylvania,
Speaker 15: in Milwaukee suburbs in Wisconsin, they are going to want
Speaker 15: to know about people's stance on these issues, no matter
Speaker 15: if it's on a state referendum, because largely abortion is
Speaker 15: a national issue for these voters and proven that over
Speaker 15: and over in the last year.
Speaker 3: How about that, I haven't asked you, asked you about
Speaker 3: the Donald Trump effect, and I don't know if you
Speaker 3: even see one. He was blaming, I think, as he
Speaker 3: put it, the stench of Mitch McConnell for Daniel Cameron's
Speaker 3: lost lost in Kentucky last evening where Andy Basheer, the Democrat,
Speaker 3: wins re election. You're talking about some broad strokes. Here
Speaker 3: was Donald Trump one of them in this election?
Speaker 4: Or not.
Speaker 9: He was.
Speaker 15: In the twenty twenty two midterm election, Joe, the most
Speaker 15: determinative factor of how you were going to vote as
Speaker 15: a swing voter, exit polls showed was your view of
Speaker 15: Donald Trump. And the problem the Republicans have of Donald
Speaker 15: Trump is he's an amazing turnout machine, but he tends
Speaker 15: to endorse these candidates that are hard to win statewide.
Speaker 15: And the Kentucky race was less about his candidate, more
Speaker 15: about the Democrats nominated a very conservative Democratic, very successful governor,
Speaker 15: and one by five points in a state where Donald
Speaker 15: Trump won by twenty and so that's, you know, that's
Speaker 15: about good candidates. And so for twenty twenty four, both
Speaker 15: parties need to nominate people who can win in some.
Speaker 9: Of these states.
Speaker 15: And Trump keeps endorsing folks that are really problematic to
Speaker 15: win in general elections. And that's not Mitch McConnell's fault.
Speaker 15: That's Donald Trump's fault. And so I'm sure that this morning,
Speaker 15: you know, you have a very angry Mitch McConnell.
Speaker 3: Well, so what do you make of all of these
Speaker 3: polls on many of them on a national level, But
Speaker 3: you mentioned Wisconsin and we've seen another one today Georgia
Speaker 3: the CNN poll. Do you believe the conventional wisdom that
Speaker 3: Joe Biden can only beat Donald Trump?
Speaker 4: Or could a lot change in the next year?
Speaker 9: Oh?
Speaker 15: A lot good change. And it's not me trying to
Speaker 15: spin your Joe. It's just history, right exactly this time
Speaker 15: twelve years ago, this weekend's The New York Times magazine
Speaker 15: put Barack Obama on the cover and said he only
Speaker 15: had a seventeen percent chance to win based on the polls,
Speaker 15: and he was toast. That was their words. Is Obama toast?
Speaker 15: He trailed in every single battleground state, as by the way,
Speaker 15: Joe did George Bush at the same time in his
Speaker 15: election cycle, as did Bill Clinton. So you know, there's
Speaker 15: lots of bed wedding Democrats out there who are losing
Speaker 15: their minds. There's lots of cocky Republicans. Both of them
Speaker 15: just need to have a very big beer and realize,
Speaker 15: to Joe's point, all this can change, and we are
Speaker 15: a year away, which is a lifetime in American politics,
Speaker 15: just a lifetime, and you know, the issues could largely
Speaker 15: be very different. Who thought two months ago we'd be
Speaker 15: talking about war in the Middle East? And who knows
Speaker 15: what's going to be going on with China, just the
Speaker 15: issue that could be wildly different. And so I don't
Speaker 15: think these polls tell us really anything except for the
Speaker 15: country's probably not super jacked up to have a rematch.
Speaker 3: Well, I'll tell you it's interesting you use that term.
Speaker 3: I was at the White House this morning and spoke
Speaker 3: with a sea and your official who referred to bed
Speaker 3: wetting and rubber sheets and was making the same point
Speaker 3: that you were, Jim. So to the extent that you can,
Speaker 3: you know, get to the issues you can control, knowing
Speaker 3: that most people will probably vote first on the economy,
Speaker 3: You've already got the abortion matter. It sounds like covered here.
Speaker 3: What do you do for the next year to try
Speaker 3: to turn around this disconnect between polling numbers and what
Speaker 3: this White House frames as strong economic data.
Speaker 9: Yeah, you do two things.
Speaker 15: First of all, to your point, they've got to get
Speaker 15: this economic message out, and it's hard. Swing voters only
Speaker 15: think about politics four minutes a week, and they're just
Speaker 15: not looking at the data the way you and I are,
Speaker 15: and so they got to continue to wail away at
Speaker 15: this and it takes a long time. Joe Biden in
Speaker 15: twenty twenty, you lost the question of the who's better
Speaker 15: on the economy, but won the presidency. You know, can
Speaker 15: he do that again? They don't want to try. They
Speaker 15: want to win the economic argument. And the second thing
Speaker 15: they got to do is make this a binary choice
Speaker 15: between them and Donald Trump. And that's how they won
Speaker 15: last time. And so the question is when they start that.
Speaker 15: Right now, they're just talking about their record, which I
Speaker 15: think is right because they've got more work to do
Speaker 15: with these swing voters on it. But eventually they will
Speaker 15: pivot and be very contrast forward message why they are
Speaker 15: better than Biden. Those two things have to happen to
Speaker 15: win a presidential election for both sides.
Speaker 3: Here, how much does actually determining your rival factor into
Speaker 3: the way that you're presenting the candidate, not in terms
Speaker 3: of oppo or how you're going to run against somebody,
Speaker 3: but once you know, all right, it's Donald Trump, or
Speaker 3: it's Nikki Haley, or it's Ron De Santis, this is
Speaker 3: the Joe Biden we want to put forward.
Speaker 9: You know, it doesn't as much as you think. When
Speaker 9: I ran President Obama's re election.
Speaker 15: Campaign, you know, we obviously cared very deeply about who
Speaker 15: came out of the Republican primary. We were hoping it
Speaker 15: wasn't going to be around me, but it was. But
Speaker 15: what we learned was that you just had to control
Speaker 15: your own destiny, and you had to get your message out,
Speaker 15: and then you had to de buying your opponent. And
Speaker 15: you know, the Biden campaign is advantaged by this primary
Speaker 15: process the Republicans are going through because in a very
Speaker 15: competitive primary, they've all had to endorse the six week
Speaker 15: abortion ban, which is just horrible politics. They've all had
Speaker 15: to endorse some of these other really controversial things like
Speaker 15: cutting Social Security Medicare, and so you know that's helpful
Speaker 15: to Team Biden that no matter who comes out of
Speaker 15: that primary, they have taken those positions.
Speaker 3: They're handing out and planting dark brand in signs in
Speaker 3: Miami today. I want one of these lawn signs, I
Speaker 3: have to admit, Jim. I wonder though, if that is
Speaker 3: going to be the angle here. Does Joe Biden need
Speaker 3: to scare people a little bit when it comes to
Speaker 3: Donald Trump or is it going to be city on
Speaker 3: a hill. I've got the long view as a man
Speaker 3: of experience, what's the approach in the tone of this campaign?
Speaker 15: Well, look, if I was them, and thank god, I'm
Speaker 15: not advising Donald Trump because I'd kill myself. But if
Speaker 15: I was, I would take a page out of Reagan
Speaker 15: and do the city on the Hill and try to
Speaker 15: paint the picture. He has no ability to do that
Speaker 15: and no sort of interest, and so their theory is
Speaker 15: going to be burned down. Joe Biden, I just don't
Speaker 15: think that's how voters think about it. I think they
Speaker 15: want something to vote for. I think the lesson of
Speaker 15: Barack Obama, the lesson of George Bush, the lesson of
Speaker 15: Bill Clinton, the lesson of ron O Reagan, is that
Speaker 15: positive matters as much as negative and more in some ways,
Speaker 15: especially when you're trying to do the two things you
Speaker 15: and I talked about, Joe, which is turn voters out
Speaker 15: of your party and do swing voters. Your Party's not
Speaker 15: going to get super jacked about, you know, a year
Speaker 15: of negative they're going to hear you say something, and
Speaker 15: so I think, you know, Team Trump has got to
Speaker 15: learn that lesson from last time.
Speaker 3: Well, this has been a seminar as usual, and you've
Speaker 3: been incredibly generous with your time.
Speaker 1: Jim.
Speaker 3: I'll ask you lastly about one thing that happened in Ohio.
Speaker 3: We haven't really talked about, and that was the vote
Speaker 3: to legalize marijuana. Ohio now the twenty fourth state to
Speaker 3: legalize the recreational use of cannabis. Why does it remain
Speaker 3: so controversial here in the nation's capital.
Speaker 15: It is crazy because people are still fighting old politics,
Speaker 15: and you have a bunch of older members of Congress
Speaker 15: who haven't seen what their constituents want. To your point,
Speaker 15: it's all over the country, Red states, Blue states, My
Speaker 15: home state, red state of Montana did it like, it's
Speaker 15: just not controversial at the state level, they're passing hugely.
Speaker 15: The only place that hasn't gotten the message is this
Speaker 15: ten square logic free zone called Washington, DC. Sooner or
Speaker 15: later they got to kind of wake up and realize
Speaker 15: it if only Joda tax it right, because eventually to
Speaker 15: do some of the things like reduce the depths at
Speaker 15: which we need to do.
Speaker 9: By the way, you're going to have some.
Speaker 15: Tax increases, and why not tax it, especially when twenty
Speaker 15: five states have already legalized it. They won't even let
Speaker 15: federal banks deal in the money, which is just really stupid.
Speaker 15: So hopefully they're going to wake up and take yes
Speaker 15: for an answer.
Speaker 3: I'll be curious to hear if Joe Biden has much
Speaker 3: to say about that on the campaign trail Moving forward, Jim,
Speaker 3: great pleasure, good to see you, and many thanks, as
Speaker 3: I said, for all your time. Jim Assina not only
Speaker 3: runs the Messina Group, former deputy chief of staff to
Speaker 3: President Barack Obama who helps to orchestrate the reelection of
Speaker 3: Barack Obama. It's always fascinating to get inside his head
Speaker 3: for a moment here as we get these little snapshots.
Speaker 4: We've got a year ago, but these.
Speaker 3: Little snapshots along the way in this campaign are what
Speaker 3: will make you a lot smarter to understand the final results.
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Sound On podcast. Make sure
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