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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us

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Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern.

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Speaker 2: On Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Business app, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 3: Nine days to a possible government shut down and no

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Speaker 3: breakthrough yet on a plan to avoid it. Welcome to

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Speaker 3: the fastest show in politics, says the Speaker, spars with

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Speaker 3: the Senate Majority leader overfunding the governments, operations, Israel, Ukraine

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Speaker 3: funding and a lot more where that came from. We're

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Speaker 3: joined in a moment by Congressman French Hill, the Republican

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Speaker 3: from Arkansas, serves on the Financial Services, Foreign Affairs, and

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Speaker 3: Intelligence committees, and is at the center of the debate overfunding,

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Speaker 3: as well as the one around renewing the government's warrantless

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Speaker 3: spying powers. We'll have the representative here live from Capitol

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Speaker 3: Hill in just a moment. It was a big night

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Speaker 3: for Democrats, a big election night, of course. We'll look

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Speaker 3: at dem victories from Virginia to Kentucky to Ohio with

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Speaker 3: our signature panel. Of course, a lot to discuss, as

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Speaker 3: always with Bloomberg Politics contributors Genie Shanzano and Rick Davis.

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Speaker 3: We'll keep you posted as well on Wall Street trading

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Speaker 3: throughout the hour because we do want to start immediately

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Speaker 3: in our conversation with Congressman french Hill, who is with

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Speaker 3: us from Capitol Hill. Congressman, it's great to see you,

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Speaker 3: and thank you for coming back to see us. Can

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Speaker 3: you give us a status check here? And you've got

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Speaker 3: guys like me asking you about a potential shutdown every

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Speaker 3: day as you try to figure out a plan on this,

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Speaker 3: but it's getting awfully close.

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Speaker 4: What do you know?

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Speaker 5: Well, Joe, it's good to be with you. Look, I've

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Speaker 5: encouraged our speaker our conference. We need to pass a

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Speaker 5: stop gap continuing resolution for a period of time so

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Speaker 5: that we can get the rest of these spending bills

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Speaker 5: completed in the House and the Senate and go to

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Speaker 5: conference and enact twenty twenty four spending. I'm supportive of

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Speaker 5: a variety of ways to do that. We could do

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Speaker 5: one in a two step manner, part of it in

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Speaker 5: early December and the balance of it in January. Do

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Speaker 5: it all until January, but we need that time to

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Speaker 5: go past the November seventeenth deadline. We lost a lot

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Speaker 5: of time up here Joe messing around with just a

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Speaker 5: handful of people kicking Kevin McCarthy out of his job.

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Speaker 5: We've got to get those weeks of work back.

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Speaker 3: Well, that's right, And are you referring to this idea

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Speaker 3: of the laddered cr Congressman, in which there would be

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Speaker 3: different expirations for various programs and agencies. Is that what's

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Speaker 3: getting the most support in your conference?

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Speaker 5: Personally, I think simpler is better, and therefore I think

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Speaker 5: a straightforward stop gap continuing resolution until say the third

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Speaker 5: week of January is probably the best thing to do

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Speaker 5: to not facilitate the Senate trying to jam the House

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Speaker 5: with a giant omnibus spending bill before Christmas, as is

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Speaker 5: the typical work of the Senate. I think that's the

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Speaker 5: best approach, But the idea of a two step approach

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Speaker 5: could work if Senate Democrats and that Republicans want to

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Speaker 5: do that. In other words, let's take defense, State and

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Speaker 5: foreign operations, transportation, housing, urban development consensus bills and get

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Speaker 5: those finished before December. But I think that takes both

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Speaker 5: houses agreeing to want to do that.

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Speaker 4: What's the point of doing that?

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Speaker 3: That would essentially set up the idea of multiple cliffs,

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Speaker 3: wouldn't it, Congressman, and I feel like we've had enough

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Speaker 3: to last us for a while.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, Well, look, we want to demonstrate that we don't

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Speaker 5: want to have a government shut down, So in effect,

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Speaker 5: the House would be funding government. They would just do

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Speaker 5: that to try to provide an incentive to the Senate

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Speaker 5: to move faster on the bills that they've already considered.

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Speaker 5: That's the incentive. Another approach, Joe, would be simply to

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Speaker 5: pass a continuing resolution through September thirtieth, twenty twenty four,

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Speaker 5: and say that we're taking off the table a government

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Speaker 5: shutdown and try to encourage the Senate to get their

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Speaker 5: work done like that. We've passed eighty percent of spending

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Speaker 5: here in the House. They've not yet completed their work

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Speaker 5: in the Senate. But that's why we need this extra time.

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Speaker 3: Well, that's one matter that you're dealing with. Of course,

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Speaker 3: we've talked as well as Congressman about this supplemental budget

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Speaker 3: request for Israel, for Ukraine, We've talked about attaching money

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Speaker 3: for Taiwan and the border to that.

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Speaker 4: That's actually the approach of.

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Speaker 3: The White House and the Senate, and it seems like

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Speaker 3: that's being picked apart here in the House, at least

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Speaker 3: that was the case for Israel money. Are you supporting

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Speaker 3: the idea of bringing each of these to the floor

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Speaker 3: separately or will that be handled in conference and you'll

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Speaker 3: have a very different looking bill that might include all

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Speaker 3: of those matters, because we're getting close to not only

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Speaker 3: a government shutdown, but the idea of delaying money to

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Speaker 3: Israel and Ukraine is making a lot of people nervous.

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Speaker 4: Congressman, for a lot of good reasons.

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Speaker 5: Right, Well, of course, we passed nearly four billion dollars

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Speaker 5: of Israel defense spending over almost five weeks ago in

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Speaker 5: the House. The Senate could have taken that bill up

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Speaker 5: and passed it weeks ago, and we weren't even We

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Speaker 5: might not even be having this short term concern learn

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Speaker 5: about Israel last week. You're right, the House did pass

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Speaker 5: the fourteen billion dollar request for Israel across the House

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Speaker 5: floor strong vote, got twelve Democratic votes with it as well,

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Speaker 5: and in the House, I think we'll get a bipartisan

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Speaker 5: vote for support for our other allies Ukraine and Taiwan.

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Speaker 5: But there's no doubt that Republican members want to review

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Speaker 5: that and make their recommendations on what that bill should contain.

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Speaker 5: I was in a meeting for several hours this morning

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Speaker 5: on that. So we are making progress here, and I

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Speaker 5: know they are in the Senate as well, So I

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Speaker 5: expect that we will have a bipartisan vote to support

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Speaker 5: the effort by Ukraine to throw Putin out of their

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Speaker 5: country and also to defend our ally Taiwan.

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Speaker 3: Interesting because you know, we're hearing a slightly different tune

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Speaker 3: from Chuck Schumer. He took to the floor this morning

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Speaker 3: to say that this bill that Republicans in the House

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Speaker 3: have put together tying Ukraine to border funding as a

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Speaker 3: non starter in the Senate. I know that there's a

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Speaker 3: lot of tough talk, and sometimes it's not exactly related

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Speaker 3: to a final products. Congressman, and you know there's a

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Speaker 3: lot of posturing right now, but do you worry that

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Speaker 3: in fact, this is creating delays for Israel and Ukraine.

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Speaker 5: Well, first of all, let's make sure we get the

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Speaker 5: bill and the funding right to match the strategy of

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Speaker 5: defending Taiwan against Chinese aggression, making sure Ukraine has the

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Speaker 5: timely material they need to defeat Putin, and make sure

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Speaker 5: Israel has timely stockpiles for their iron dome system and

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Speaker 5: for their precision minisions. So let's get the substance right,

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Speaker 5: then we can get this timing issue right. But I'm

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Speaker 5: convinced that if we focus on the substance, we'll get

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Speaker 5: the timing correct. And to Senator Schumer's point, well, you've

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Speaker 5: got Senator Jim Langford of Oklahoma working actively over in

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Speaker 5: the Senate on a border policy that they can get

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Speaker 5: consensus on and get democratic support for. So look, I

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Speaker 5: think it's very fluid in both houses. I think both

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Speaker 5: houses are committed to the appropriate amount of funding to

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Speaker 5: defend our allies and their efforts to authoritarian attacks and

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Speaker 5: terrorist attacks.

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Speaker 4: Do you think we're going to survive a government shut

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Speaker 4: down then?

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Speaker 3: Or there could be a couple of days before something

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Speaker 3: is figured out in the short term.

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Speaker 5: Look, I think that's a bad idea. We just don't

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Speaker 5: need to do that. We should in my view, and

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Speaker 5: we didn't do it this week. But I urge that

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Speaker 5: we adopt a continuing resolution and get one that two

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Speaker 5: hundred and eighteen Republicans could support and get that done

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Speaker 5: and through the House this week or very early next week.

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Speaker 5: And it doesn't appear that's going to happen, And so

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Speaker 5: once again we move towards a deadline. But we need

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Speaker 5: that sort of leadership, and that allows us to do

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Speaker 5: the substantive work that we're elected to do in analyzing

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Speaker 5: the right spending programs for all of fiscal twenty four

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Speaker 5: and to have the time to debate those supplemental appropriations

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Speaker 5: that are critical.

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Speaker 3: For our allies, well as we consider policy that's critical

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Speaker 3: to Americans everywhere. Congressman, there are two things that are

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Speaker 3: getting not enough talk. I think you and I both

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Speaker 3: agree on this. One would be the Farm Bill, and

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Speaker 3: we'll get to that with an important renewal that could

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Speaker 3: be coming as soon as next month. And then there

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Speaker 3: is FISA, or seven oh two as some people call

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Speaker 3: it short, that section seven oh two of the Foreign

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Speaker 3: Intelligence Surveillance Act. You serve on the Intelligence Committee, and

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Speaker 3: you know a lot more about this than certainly I

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Speaker 3: do or most people here. But there is a bypart

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Speaker 3: as an effort to renew what a lot of people

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Speaker 3: see as a controversial measure, a warrantless spying by the US.

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Speaker 4: Why does this need to happen?

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Speaker 5: Well, the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, passed years ago, connected

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Speaker 5: with the post nine to eleven world we live in

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Speaker 5: is very important to America's national security. This is how

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Speaker 5: we use the National Security Agency and other intelligence community

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Speaker 5: participants to make sure we're monitoring people who might do

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Speaker 5: US harm outside the United States. The controversial part is

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Speaker 5: where an American citizen is talking to one of those

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Speaker 5: suspects or terrorists or state actors outside the US, how

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Speaker 5: do we listen in on their conversations? For example? This

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Speaker 5: is where the reform needs to take place. And Darren

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Speaker 5: Lohood of Illinois Andy Biggs of Arizona have been working

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Speaker 5: together on a reform package that reflects the views of

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Speaker 5: certainly the House Republicans and House Democrats have been involved

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Speaker 5: as well, because we need the authorities of Section seven

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Speaker 5: oh two under FISA to make sure that we have

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Speaker 5: the intelligence resources to help protect against a homeland attack

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Speaker 5: or protect against an attack against American interest outside the

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Speaker 5: United States.

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Speaker 3: Well, it's you know, it's not lost on me that

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Speaker 3: the FBI Director Christopher Ray said in a hearing was

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Speaker 3: believe it's just last week talking about the threats abroad

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Speaker 3: that had spawned from the Hamas attack on Israel, that

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Speaker 3: in fact, domestic terror threats were nearing a high as

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Speaker 3: well right now, that the chatter is getting very noisy,

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Speaker 3: and I wonder, Congressman, if that's your concern, if it's

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Speaker 3: domestic threats to the US, or it's something altogether different,

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Speaker 3: why Americans need to see this renewed well.

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Speaker 5: FBI Director Ray last week before the Senate did say

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Speaker 5: that it's very concerning to me that he would raise

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Speaker 5: that level of concern that the information that they pick

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Speaker 5: up through their intelligence sources indicate that America is the

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Speaker 5: most at risk it's been since Isis rose in power

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Speaker 5: in twenty fourteen. Some have even said the most at

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Speaker 5: risk since nine to eleven. And here's how I feel

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Speaker 5: about it. One, we can't can't let Fizas seven oh

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Speaker 5: two expire and lose that authority. Secondly, we need to

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Speaker 5: have all of our military on alert around the world.

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Speaker 5: And thirdly, we have an open border, Joe. We have

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Speaker 5: an open border where one hundred and sixty nine people

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Speaker 5: on the terror watch list have come across the border

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Speaker 5: in the last year. That's a problem, and so I

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Speaker 5: think that's concerning too, who's coming across this millions of

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Speaker 5: people entering the United States illegally. So I'm concerned about

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Speaker 5: border security from that point of view. And who's gotten

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Speaker 5: into our country local radicalization. You know, back in my

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Speaker 5: hometown of Little Rock, we had a local radicalized Islamic

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Speaker 5: fundamentalist in Memphis, Tennessee come over to Little Rock and

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Speaker 5: attack our military recruiting base and kill a young man.

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Speaker 5: And that's what I think. Also Directory is concerned about,

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Speaker 5: so external threats across the border, external threats around to

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Speaker 5: our military and our diplomats, and internal threats by people

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Speaker 5: who are radicalized by terrorism.

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Speaker 4: Will it be renewed by the end of the year.

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Speaker 5: That's my hope. And here's the way to do it. Look,

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Speaker 5: if we can't agree on the precise reforms to the process,

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Speaker 5: let's renew it for a short period of time while

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Speaker 5: we debate those reforms and get them passed. We cannot

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Speaker 5: have a gap in that coverage.

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Speaker 4: So it's a cr for seven oh two.

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Speaker 5: Well, let's not call it that, Joe. We're trying to

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Speaker 5: help get it past here.

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Speaker 4: It's probably not going to help with anyone. Congressman. It's

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Speaker 4: good to see you. Thank you for the time.

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Speaker 3: Congressman french Hill with us live from Capitol Hill as

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Speaker 3: always on Bloomberg and as I mentioned, brings a unique

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Speaker 3: perspective to think about it, Foreign Affairs, Financial Services, and

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Speaker 3: intelligence committees. He put them all together, and he's coming

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Speaker 3: at this from a different position than a lot of lawmakers.

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Speaker 3: As we assemble our panel now, Rick Davis and Genie

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Speaker 3: Shanzino are with us. Bloomberg Politics contributors will start here

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Speaker 3: with the matter of funding our government and the rest.

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Speaker 3: You know, I left for a couple of days, guys,

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Speaker 3: I thought you might have something figured out here. Maybe

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Speaker 3: I should have mentioned that to the congressman. But Rick Davis,

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Speaker 3: this lattered cr seems to be catching on. I don't

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Speaker 3: get a sense that Friendshill prefers it, but there seems

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Speaker 3: to be some residents here.

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Speaker 4: Is that going to be the answer.

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Speaker 6: Well, it's certainly something that the speaker's trying to sell

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Speaker 6: inside the caucus right now, and it's even a question

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Speaker 6: as to whether or not people like Frendshill and others

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Speaker 6: are willing to walk down that aisle. I mean, it's

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Speaker 6: kind of a compromise on top of compromises, It wrought

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Speaker 6: with problems. It kind of guarantees a shutdown for government

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Speaker 6: for some period of time, and it's completely dead on

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Speaker 6: arrival in the Senate. So most people I've talked to

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Speaker 6: have absolutely no idea how to actually implement this across

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Speaker 6: the government, across Congress. And so most people are telling

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Speaker 6: me they think that Senate is just going to do

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Speaker 6: a clean CR and get it over there and kind

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Speaker 6: of jam the House with it ultimately to just keep

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Speaker 6: the government shut down from happening.

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Speaker 4: Does this just slow things down?

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Speaker 3: Genie, we're talking about the back and forth year on

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Speaker 3: Israel funding, on Ukraine in this case, on government funding,

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Speaker 3: dealing with approaches that everyone knows will not lead to

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Speaker 3: a breakthrough or a law. Is that just the story

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Speaker 3: of this period of time. We're just dragging everything until

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Speaker 3: a longer wait cycle, and in some cases beyond what

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Speaker 3: might be appropriate when you consider two hot wars being for.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, and you know, the reality is this is how

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Speaker 7: Congress usually operates. It takes a long time. They do

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Speaker 7: come to deadlines. I think the Representative is absolutely right.

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Speaker 7: The smart thing to do here is to pass a

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Speaker 7: clean CR, negotiate the funding for Israel, Ukraine and the

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Speaker 7: rest separately, and move this forward. Because let's remember this

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Speaker 7: latter CR. And Joe, you're on fire. You're so right.

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Speaker 7: This multiple cliffs is a great way to describe it.

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Speaker 7: This is not only something that Democrats don't like, but

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Speaker 7: Senate Republicans Susan Collins and others have said, this is

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Speaker 7: just making the pain far worse. Let's get a clean

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Speaker 7: cr let's get it through, Let's negotiate what needs to

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Speaker 7: go out for Israel and Ukraine, and let's move forward.

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Speaker 7: Is the smart thing to do. The concern is that

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Speaker 7: may not happen, and it's really in the Speaker's hands

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Speaker 7: at this point.

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Speaker 3: Rick, can't you see the cable news channels, you know,

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Speaker 3: with five or six countdown clocks all ending at different times.

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Speaker 4: It's the multiple cliff show.

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Speaker 3: It does make you wonder about the optics behind all

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Speaker 3: of that and just how crazy you might want to

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Speaker 3: drive your constituents.

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Speaker 4: But is the alternative also a dead end for this speaker?

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Speaker 3: Would Speaker Johnson be recalled or fired if he actually

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Speaker 3: passed a clean CR with Democrats?

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Speaker 6: You know, it's hard to tell about whether or not

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Speaker 6: Johnson's honeymoon is over at this point. Certainly you've starting

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Speaker 6: to see the sun set on that. Marjorie Taylor Green

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Speaker 6: went after me yesterday, kind of shades of the old

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Speaker 6: Congress again.

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Speaker 4: And who knows whether or not.

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Speaker 6: He can make it to the end of a term,

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Speaker 6: you know, by January of twenty five. But right now

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Speaker 6: he's got work cut out for him in front of him.

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Speaker 6: This idea of splitting it up, it would only be

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Speaker 6: a couple of different deadlines, one in early December and

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Speaker 6: then one in the middle of January. But that being said,

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Speaker 6: I don't even get the impression he's making progress with

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Speaker 6: his own Republican caucus on it. So it's it's hard

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Speaker 6: for me to understand how you're going to implement that

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Speaker 6: and how you're even going to get time to vote

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Speaker 6: on at this stage because the clock has really ticked

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Speaker 6: down too far. And what I find quite amazing is

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Speaker 6: absolutely no word from the White House on their preferences.

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Speaker 6: I mean, they've they've not tried to push through the

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Speaker 6: supplemental in any way that I've seen. They kind of

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Speaker 6: just left it to Schumer in the Senate and and

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Speaker 6: you know, he's got to buy part of the majority

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Speaker 6: for it, that's not his problem.

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Speaker 4: So unless the White House.

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Speaker 6: Sort of puts some pressure on the House of Representatives,

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Speaker 6: they're kind of going to let him just stew and

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Speaker 6: I don't think that's good for the country. I think

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Speaker 6: the president a way in and say get the cr done,

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Speaker 6: and get the you know, get the government funded, and

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Speaker 6: and let's go about the business of Passanese supplemental.

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Speaker 3: Well, I'll tell you by this time next week, it's

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Speaker 3: gonna feel real, Like I mentioned, only nine days to

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Speaker 3: go here, and we'll be of course talking it out

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Speaker 3: with Rick Davis and Genie Shanzino, our signature panel. Next,

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Speaker 3: a big night for Democrats, a big election night. Rick

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Speaker 3: and Jenie will weigh in on Democratic victories that might

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Speaker 3: tell us a lot about the way forward in twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty four, not to mention tonight's Republican presidential debate. We'll

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Speaker 3: hit it all next with Rick and Jeanie. I'm Joe

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Speaker 3: Matthew in Washington. This is Bloomberg. You're listening to the

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the program live weekdays at

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Speaker 3: one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg

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Speaker 3: dot Com, and.

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Speaker 1: The Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on

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Speaker 1: Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say

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Speaker 1: Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 3: Are we gonna start referring to Ohio as a swing

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Speaker 3: state again, Is it going purple? Did you see this yesterday?

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Speaker 3: Voters enshrining the right to an abortion in the state's

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Speaker 3: constitution and legalizing cannabis in the same day. That was

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Speaker 3: part of a good day for Democrats. You can certainly say,

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Speaker 3: look no further than the state of Kentucky or the

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Speaker 3: Democratic governor. Yes, Mitch McConnell's Kentucky the Democratic governor Andy

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Speaker 3: Basheer wins reelection.

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Speaker 8: Just look at what we were up against. Five superpacks,

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Speaker 8: my opponent's super pack, Mitch McConnell's super pack, Ran Paul Superpack,

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Speaker 8: the Club for Growth, the Republican Governors Association, all running

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Speaker 8: ads full of hate and division. And you know what,

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Speaker 8: we beat them all at the same time.

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Speaker 3: From last night and a busy night, a string of

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Speaker 3: wins here for Democrats and elections around the country. Let's

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Speaker 3: reassemble our panel. Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano, Bloomberg Politics

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Speaker 3: contributor has been really looking forward to what both of

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Speaker 3: you have to say here. The narrative is a tough one, Rick,

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Speaker 3: for Republicans, and I wonder your thoughts on a state

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Speaker 3: like Kentucky. I'm not really sure I understand the basher

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Speaker 3: phenomenon to begin with. But after what you just heard there,

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Speaker 3: overcoming Mitch McConnell, overcoming the forces of gravity, how did

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Speaker 3: he do it? And maybe more importantly, what does it

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Speaker 3: mean for the greater fields in this next election cycle?

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Speaker 6: And well, you know, like all things in politics, it

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Speaker 6: all starts with money. He outspent his opponent by twenty

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Speaker 6: million dollars, so that helps a lot. And he's been

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Speaker 6: running as a governor who as a centrist. There's a

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Speaker 6: lot of value with being a centrist politician today, especially

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Speaker 6: in some states like Kentucky. He's seen the state through

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Speaker 6: some really tough times and so every time we read

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Speaker 6: a survey, the one thing that is in common is

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Speaker 6: voters want the parties to work together to find solutions.

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Speaker 6: And he's been a solution oriented governor, so give him

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Speaker 6: his due. Getting elected a Democrat governor in red state

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Speaker 6: is very rare. We talked about this earlier this week

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Speaker 6: about how there are only five states left where there

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Speaker 6: are split governance, where there are Republicans and Democrats in

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Speaker 6: the statewide leadership, whether they're in Congress or in constitutional

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Speaker 6: offices at the state level. So it's a rare bird.

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Speaker 6: To find something like this, and the fact that he

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Speaker 6: was able to do as well as he did is

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Speaker 6: real kudos to him for you know, the kind of politician,

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Speaker 6: the kind of politics he's playing well.

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Speaker 3: The greater theme is certainly leaning in the direction of Democrats.

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Speaker 3: In the last twenty four hours here, Genie, as we've

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Speaker 3: seen in the midterms and a lot of special elections,

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Speaker 3: the issue of abortion loomed large, and I suspect that

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Speaker 3: you're connecting some dots here. It's not only what happened

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Speaker 3: in Ohio yesterday with the abortion vote, but also what

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Speaker 3: happened in the state of Virginia. We'll have Rick Way

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Speaker 3: in on this too. He's certainly no stranger to Virginia politics.

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Speaker 3: But people are looking at the impact that the issue

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Speaker 3: of abortion had. Governor Glen Youngkin was talking about implementing

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Speaker 3: a fifteen week ban, but also what that means in

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Speaker 3: the bigger picture for twenty twenty four not just for

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Speaker 3: Glen Youngkin, but also that issue of abortion and how

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Speaker 3: it might play for Democrats.

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Speaker 4: How do you see it?

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Speaker 7: It has played very well for Democrats since the overturning

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Speaker 7: of Roe and the passage of Dobbs. There's no question

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Speaker 7: about that. Every time abortion has been front and center

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Speaker 7: and on the ballot, the pro choice forces have come

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Speaker 7: out and they have won. So now we see it

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Speaker 7: in the red Ohio, it played big in Kentucky, and

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Speaker 7: to your point, in Virginia. Interesting about Virginia, we saw

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Speaker 7: Governor Youngkin trying to test out new language and a

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Speaker 7: new way forward for Republicans and pro life forces, not

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Speaker 7: to be defensive, but to go on the offensive, trying

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Speaker 7: to talk about this fifteen week limit. The reality is though,

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Speaker 7: that once again that did not succeed for him, as

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Speaker 7: it hasn't for Republicans across the country, and that means

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Speaker 7: we are probably going to see in twenty four Obviously

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Speaker 7: Democrats make as much as they can out of this,

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Speaker 7: but we're probably going to see Republicans walk back a

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Speaker 7: little bit. We've already seen that from Donald Trump. Fascinating.

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Speaker 7: Here is somebody who wants to have it both ways.

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Speaker 7: He's saying he's a moderate, this issue is going to

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Speaker 7: hurt Republicans. He's going to take a stepped back approach

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Speaker 7: on this. And yet here's the same man who, when

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Speaker 7: Dobbs was passed, claimed credit for stacking the Supreme Court.

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Speaker 7: So how he is going to walk that line is

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Speaker 7: going to be fascinating. But the reality is abortion has

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Speaker 7: helped Democrats from the start when it's been the issue

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Speaker 7: front and center. But I would be cautious about reading

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Speaker 7: too much of these results into twenty four. The reality

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Speaker 7: is is that a lot of what happened last night

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Speaker 7: was about local and state issues. Andy Basheer is a

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Speaker 7: very attractive candidate. He is a son of a former governor.

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Speaker 7: To Rick's point, he's spent an awful lot of money

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Speaker 7: and he has been effective. That said, look at what

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Speaker 7: he talked about when he stood on that stage for

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Speaker 7: the first time. He talked about infrastructure, a bill that

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Speaker 7: joined Biden and McConnell down there in that state. So

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Speaker 7: this does vode a little bright light for Biden and

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Speaker 7: the Democrats, but they have a lot of work to

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Speaker 7: do because you've got to get people out to the vote.

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Speaker 7: This is a off your election with low turnout except

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Speaker 7: for people who are incredibly interested in these issues like

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Speaker 7: abortion in marijuana when they're on the ballot.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, right, how about that.

438
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Speaker 3: I did see a little bit of a line in Virginia.

439
00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:57,440
Speaker 3: I have to admit, Rick, I don't know about you yesterday.

440
00:23:57,480 --> 00:24:00,000
Speaker 3: But are people being fair to count out Glenn young

441
00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:03,720
Speaker 3: Can in this cycle. Some had concocted this idea of

442
00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:07,960
Speaker 3: Glenn Youngkin running the board on Tuesday night, a red

443
00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:10,480
Speaker 3: wave through the legislature, and then making a late arrival

444
00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:11,560
Speaker 3: on the presidential trail.

445
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:12,960
Speaker 9: Yeah.

446
00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:15,639
Speaker 6: I kind of teased by Governor Youngin himself, right. I

447
00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:17,320
Speaker 6: mean he set this up as, Hey, I'm going to

448
00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:20,840
Speaker 6: put all my chips on win in the legislature. I

449
00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:24,320
Speaker 6: want to i want to completely unified government the Senate

450
00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:27,879
Speaker 6: and the House in Richmond. And and and I'm not

451
00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:30,680
Speaker 6: going to make any decisions about my future politically until

452
00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:33,239
Speaker 6: I do that. Well, he didn't do it, and so

453
00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:35,960
Speaker 6: the decision about his future kind of got made for him.

454
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:36,600
Speaker 10: Uh.

455
00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:38,880
Speaker 6: And this is always the problem with setting those kinds

456
00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:39,959
Speaker 6: of markers in the future.

457
00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:40,760
Speaker 9: Uh.

458
00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:45,800
Speaker 6: The Virginia race was incredibly close. U Republics actually picked

459
00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:48,000
Speaker 6: up a seat in the Senate and lost some in

460
00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:51,160
Speaker 6: the House. And so the bottom line is Democrats now

461
00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:55,440
Speaker 6: have both chambers in Richmond. Uh to style me any

462
00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:58,480
Speaker 6: an initiative that the governor may have, you know, for

463
00:24:58,560 --> 00:24:59,840
Speaker 6: the next two years of office.

464
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 4: So he's he's now trapped in.

465
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:06,760
Speaker 6: Sort of political purgatory and to some degree of his

466
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:10,879
Speaker 6: own making. Look, there's no question abortion played big in

467
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:15,280
Speaker 6: this I would say looking at these Ohio results, even

468
00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:17,360
Speaker 6: more so than Virginia, there are a lot of turnout

469
00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:22,879
Speaker 6: and and it's actually almost historic for a off year election,

470
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:27,080
Speaker 6: an off off year election, and you know, three point

471
00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:30,119
Speaker 6: nine million people voted in Ohio and four million voted

472
00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:33,359
Speaker 6: in the midterm. That is outrageous. That's you know, the

473
00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:36,360
Speaker 6: idea that an off year could meet a midterm is

474
00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:39,520
Speaker 6: is really something you know, and I think what Republicans

475
00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:42,800
Speaker 6: have to pay attention to is, you know, Democrats have

476
00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:46,919
Speaker 6: occupied the vast majority of voters in the cities, but

477
00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:49,720
Speaker 6: with this abortion referendum, they were able to move that

478
00:25:49,800 --> 00:25:53,159
Speaker 6: way out into the suburbs. And to me, that is

479
00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:57,280
Speaker 6: something that could play important in the twenty twenty four election.

480
00:25:57,480 --> 00:26:04,359
Speaker 6: But three groups voters under thirty and independent voters and

481
00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:09,679
Speaker 6: women all vastly supported this abortion referendum in Georgia or

482
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:13,600
Speaker 6: in Ohio. But all of them have in those cases.

483
00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 6: In Ohio a thirty nine percent approval rating of Joe Biden.

484
00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:22,760
Speaker 6: So you can't necessarily draw the conclusion because they're turning

485
00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:25,639
Speaker 6: out big for abortion in Ohio, that they're going to

486
00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:28,719
Speaker 6: necessarily do the same thing for Joe Biden as president.

487
00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:32,720
Speaker 3: I'd be curious to ask you about the Trump effects

488
00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:35,280
Speaker 3: in our remaining moment here, Jeanie. There was actually one

489
00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:38,240
Speaker 3: big Republican win last night. May not have surprised anybody,

490
00:26:38,240 --> 00:26:43,600
Speaker 3: but Mississippi Governor Tate Reeves beat Brandon Presley, a cousin

491
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:46,160
Speaker 3: or a nephew of Elvis Presley or something there. But

492
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:50,439
Speaker 3: Donald Trump went on truth so that Daniel Cameron lost.

493
00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:53,440
Speaker 3: That's the one who lost to Basher in Kentucky because

494
00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:57,840
Speaker 3: he could not alleviate the stench of Mitch McConnell. He

495
00:26:57,920 --> 00:26:59,600
Speaker 3: goes on to write, Tate Reeves, on the other hand,

496
00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:04,240
Speaker 3: Surge will win after my involvement. Congratulations to Tate. Was

497
00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:06,600
Speaker 3: this a win or a loss for Donald Trump overall?

498
00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:07,080
Speaker 4: Jeannie?

499
00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:10,600
Speaker 7: In his mind everything is a win, Joe, Matthew, But

500
00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:12,160
Speaker 7: you know it was a loss.

501
00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:12,440
Speaker 10: Listen.

502
00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:14,680
Speaker 7: He endorsed Cameron as well, so I don't know why

503
00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:18,080
Speaker 7: the stench falls on Mitch McConnell. But another great spot

504
00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:21,640
Speaker 7: actually for Republicans, we have to say, is New York.

505
00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 7: Once again, they win the county executive in Suffolk, they

506
00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:27,880
Speaker 7: win a city council seat in the Bronx New York.

507
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:31,000
Speaker 7: Because the focus has been on crime has been something

508
00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:34,040
Speaker 7: that Republicans have been able to make hay of up here,

509
00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:36,240
Speaker 7: and that is going to be something we're going to

510
00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:39,680
Speaker 7: see a battle over in twenty four so, don't you know,

511
00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:43,159
Speaker 7: Democrats have to keep their eye on that. Abortion huge

512
00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:46,639
Speaker 7: for Democrats, but crime and the issue of immigration and

513
00:27:46,680 --> 00:27:50,960
Speaker 7: a legal migration continues to play big for Republicans rather

514
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:54,040
Speaker 7: in places you wouldn't expect it, like my home state.

515
00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:57,479
Speaker 7: So we have to keep our eye on that because

516
00:27:57,520 --> 00:28:01,080
Speaker 7: the numbers there are pretty astonishing, continuing what we saw

517
00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:03,320
Speaker 7: for Republicans in the midterm.

518
00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:06,399
Speaker 4: Day after Analysis with Rick and Jeannie.

519
00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:12,400
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us

520
00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:14,480
Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern.

521
00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:17,320
Speaker 2: On Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg

522
00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:20,800
Speaker 2: Business App, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts.

523
00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:24,920
Speaker 3: The House of Representatives still trying to figure a way

524
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:30,080
Speaker 3: to fund government operations beyond next Friday, votes to censure

525
00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:35,040
Speaker 3: the lone Palestinian Americans serving in the House. Rashida Talib,

526
00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:39,080
Speaker 3: the congresswoman from Michigan. This is not the first attempt

527
00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:44,360
Speaker 3: that we've seen here put together by a member of

528
00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:47,840
Speaker 3: the Republican majority. In the case of yesterday, it did

529
00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:49,880
Speaker 3: get to the floor and it passed.

530
00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:50,720
Speaker 9: On this vote.

531
00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:53,640
Speaker 11: The yea's are two one hundred and thirty four and

532
00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:56,400
Speaker 11: the nays are one hundred and eighty eight, with four

533
00:28:56,560 --> 00:28:59,960
Speaker 11: answering present, the resolution is adopted.

534
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:06,320
Speaker 3: It's the new Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson.

535
00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:06,600
Speaker 6: Without objection.

536
00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:09,720
Speaker 4: The motion to reconsider is laid on the table, and

537
00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:12,080
Speaker 4: there you have it. Two thirty four one eight.

538
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:16,320
Speaker 3: This goes back to comments made by the congresswoman and

539
00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:19,080
Speaker 3: in fact, a video that was posted on Twitter, which

540
00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:24,400
Speaker 3: I will always call Twitter, I guess that showed pro

541
00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:29,560
Speaker 3: Palestinian protesters chanting from the river to the sea as reassemble.

542
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:33,000
Speaker 3: Our panel with Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano Bloomberg Politics

543
00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:35,120
Speaker 3: contributors for their take.

544
00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:36,280
Speaker 4: On this, Genie.

545
00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:40,720
Speaker 3: We heard a pronounced debate on the floor of the House.

546
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:43,600
Speaker 3: There were a lot of Democrats who came to Rashida

547
00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:49,120
Speaker 3: Salib's defense, talking about this as a freedom of speech issue.

548
00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:50,800
Speaker 4: Should she have been censured?

549
00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:57,360
Speaker 7: You know, it's really divided the Democratic Party in an

550
00:29:57,440 --> 00:30:00,600
Speaker 7: important way. I think there's two things. I'm of two

551
00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:03,480
Speaker 7: minds here. On the one hand, I agree completely with

552
00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:07,440
Speaker 7: Hakeem Jeffries, the Minority leader, when he says that the

553
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:11,720
Speaker 7: statements that she made, particularly in that video you referenced,

554
00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:14,600
Speaker 7: or that she didn't make them, she released them in

555
00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:19,800
Speaker 7: this video, are deplorable. They are slogans that are destructive.

556
00:30:20,320 --> 00:30:23,560
Speaker 7: They do not at all support what we hope would

557
00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:26,040
Speaker 7: be the end for everybody, which would be some kind

558
00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 7: of two state solution. They are polarizing, their divisive, They

559
00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:34,480
Speaker 7: incite violence. So it is really really troubling to see

560
00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:38,320
Speaker 7: that released by a congress person that said. I am

561
00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:41,680
Speaker 7: of the opinion that when you go and you censure,

562
00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:44,840
Speaker 7: you have to be very carefully. You're doing it only

563
00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:49,440
Speaker 7: for reasons that are the most most serious. And I

564
00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:52,120
Speaker 7: agree actually with Ken Buck and some of the other

565
00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:55,560
Speaker 7: Republicans on this. We have to be careful. We don't

566
00:30:55,560 --> 00:30:58,440
Speaker 7: get into a tip for tat where we are censuring

567
00:30:58,520 --> 00:31:01,400
Speaker 7: people on the other side because we don't agree with them.

568
00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:04,280
Speaker 7: I don't agree with Rashida to leave here, and by

569
00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:07,400
Speaker 7: the same token, I don't think we should make censure

570
00:31:07,520 --> 00:31:11,280
Speaker 7: a weapon that is used to try to hold people

571
00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:14,920
Speaker 7: up whose speech we don't appreciate. So I'm of those

572
00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:17,440
Speaker 7: two minds here. I wouldn't have voted for the censer.

573
00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:20,640
Speaker 7: I side with Buck on that, but the statements are deplorable,

574
00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:23,480
Speaker 7: and I'm glad. Hakeem Jeffreys came out clearly and said

575
00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:27,200
Speaker 7: that it does though divide the Democratic Party. But you

576
00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:30,600
Speaker 7: did have twenty two Democrats vote to censure her all

577
00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:31,040
Speaker 7: the same.

578
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:34,680
Speaker 3: Yep, that's right, and ken Buck was one of four Republicans,

579
00:31:34,680 --> 00:31:38,200
Speaker 3: as you mentioned, voting against the measure. Rashida Tsalib spoke

580
00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 3: to her own defense on the floor.

581
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:43,000
Speaker 12: Here she is speaking up to save lies, mister chair,

582
00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:46,880
Speaker 12: No matter faith, no matter ethnicity, should not be controversial

583
00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:50,840
Speaker 12: in this chamber. The cries of the Palestinian and Palestinian

584
00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:55,360
Speaker 12: and Israeli children sound no different to me. Why What

585
00:31:55,640 --> 00:31:59,720
Speaker 12: I don't understand is why the cries of Palestinians sound

586
00:31:59,720 --> 00:32:01,360
Speaker 12: different to you all?

587
00:32:03,280 --> 00:32:05,160
Speaker 4: Is that a fair question? Does it deserve an answer?

588
00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:05,440
Speaker 1: Rick?

589
00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:07,240
Speaker 9: Yeah?

590
00:32:07,440 --> 00:32:10,960
Speaker 6: Look, I think the answer was she got censured, and

591
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:15,760
Speaker 6: she didn't get censured by Margerie Taylor Greene censure resolution

592
00:32:15,880 --> 00:32:17,959
Speaker 6: and talked about insurrection and things like that. I mean

593
00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:21,320
Speaker 6: Republicans said no to that, Democrats said no to that.

594
00:32:21,320 --> 00:32:23,760
Speaker 6: That was fine, but she was censured for what she said.

595
00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:27,240
Speaker 6: And sure, sometimes she says nice things like what she

596
00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:30,080
Speaker 6: just said about the value of life. None other times

597
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:33,760
Speaker 6: she says things that are incredibly destructive and that promote

598
00:32:33,800 --> 00:32:36,680
Speaker 6: political violence. And we talk a lot about promotion of

599
00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:40,440
Speaker 6: political violence on this show, and I think the Congress

600
00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:42,960
Speaker 6: did the right thing by putting her in her place,

601
00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:45,960
Speaker 6: centering her. It's only been done, you know, a couple

602
00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:49,680
Speaker 6: dozen times in the history. But when you are promoting

603
00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:53,520
Speaker 6: a chant of from the River to the Sea, which

604
00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:56,920
Speaker 6: means the complete destruction of Israel, and you've sided with

605
00:32:56,960 --> 00:33:01,160
Speaker 6: Hamas in the past, then you are promoting political violence,

606
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:04,240
Speaker 6: and that we got to have zero tolerance for that.

607
00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:06,840
Speaker 6: And frankly, if anybody else does the same thing, they

608
00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:07,800
Speaker 6: should be censured to.

609
00:33:10,600 --> 00:33:14,520
Speaker 3: We mentioned it a moment ago. Twenty two Democrats chose

610
00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:21,280
Speaker 3: to vote in favor of censure, Genie. They're all from

611
00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:25,280
Speaker 3: different states. There were some New Yorkers in there. You've

612
00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:28,120
Speaker 3: got Debbie Wasserman Schultz in Florida. Some of them you

613
00:33:28,200 --> 00:33:31,200
Speaker 3: might have considered predictable, some of them not. What were

614
00:33:31,240 --> 00:33:31,880
Speaker 3: they thinking of.

615
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:34,160
Speaker 9: You know.

616
00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:37,400
Speaker 7: I think they are seeing what she released in the

617
00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:42,040
Speaker 7: statement she's made as calls for the complete destruction of Israel,

618
00:33:42,280 --> 00:33:45,320
Speaker 7: and even though she is a member of their party

619
00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:49,000
Speaker 7: and they support her right to speak, they are very,

620
00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:52,239
Speaker 7: very concerned about the rhetoric and the violence that can

621
00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:55,880
Speaker 7: ensue as a result. You know, I think in my mind,

622
00:33:56,040 --> 00:33:59,680
Speaker 7: what I try to think about is what should we

623
00:33:59,840 --> 00:34:04,000
Speaker 7: do to advance what we all want. She's absolutely right,

624
00:34:04,080 --> 00:34:07,760
Speaker 7: it was a heartbreaking statement. You just played What is

625
00:34:07,840 --> 00:34:12,160
Speaker 7: happening to innocent civilians and Palestine in Gaza strip rather

626
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:16,160
Speaker 7: is so heartbreaking. There is no difference between Israeli and

627
00:34:16,760 --> 00:34:21,200
Speaker 7: Palestinian children, or any children or people that said we

628
00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:24,080
Speaker 7: have to expect a good deal from our leaders in

629
00:34:24,120 --> 00:34:27,960
Speaker 7: the United States that they are going to be productive.

630
00:34:28,080 --> 00:34:30,759
Speaker 7: And I think the members who voted to censure her

631
00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:34,040
Speaker 7: on the Democratic side are looking at this as calls

632
00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:37,560
Speaker 7: her violence that they just cannot go on the record

633
00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:41,200
Speaker 7: either turning a blind eye to or supporting, you know,

634
00:34:41,400 --> 00:34:44,400
Speaker 7: and this is I don't think she is likely surprised

635
00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:47,680
Speaker 7: by this. I do think this is a really important

636
00:34:47,719 --> 00:34:51,640
Speaker 7: and difficult conversation to have all around. But violence does

637
00:34:51,719 --> 00:34:54,919
Speaker 7: have to be condemned, and we do need to think

638
00:34:55,000 --> 00:35:00,800
Speaker 7: about humanitarian assistance and solutions and being productive and violent

639
00:35:00,920 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 7: rhetoric is not the way to do that.

640
00:35:04,880 --> 00:35:07,400
Speaker 3: Well, in our thirty seconds remaining, I don't want to

641
00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:08,840
Speaker 3: cut you off here, Rick, but I wonder if you

642
00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:10,560
Speaker 3: think this puts it to bed at least as a

643
00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:14,880
Speaker 3: public sort of fissure in the Democratic conference in the House.

644
00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:20,040
Speaker 6: It could just depends upon her conduct and her speech

645
00:35:20,239 --> 00:35:24,120
Speaker 6: between now and then. It certainly has put the squad,

646
00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:27,720
Speaker 6: you know, AOC and her team on defense and certainly

647
00:35:27,719 --> 00:35:29,560
Speaker 6: not a good thing for going into an election year.

648
00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:34,200
Speaker 3: Well yeah, members of the squad were standing with her

649
00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:37,120
Speaker 3: or sitting right around her to support her while she

650
00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:39,960
Speaker 3: was making that floor speech in her defense, Rick Davis

651
00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:42,759
Speaker 3: and Jeanie Shanzano, we don't shy away from the tough

652
00:35:42,800 --> 00:35:44,920
Speaker 3: ones here. This is Bloomberg.

653
00:35:48,080 --> 00:35:51,480
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the

654
00:35:51,480 --> 00:35:54,160
Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern.

655
00:35:54,040 --> 00:35:57,440
Speaker 3: On Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and.

656
00:35:57,440 --> 00:36:00,319
Speaker 1: The Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen I have

657
00:36:00,360 --> 00:36:03,560
Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station Just

658
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Speaker 1: Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 3: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington this day after the election

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00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:16,680
Speaker 3: night that went pretty well for Democrats. Is the narrative,

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Speaker 3: and we're going to talk to Wendy and Mark Niquette

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Speaker 3: about that in just a moment. As Andy Basheer takes

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Speaker 3: a victory lap, Daniel Cameron says, good night, contact.

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Speaker 11: That you pray for Governor Basheer and his team and

665
00:36:31,560 --> 00:36:34,759
Speaker 11: for all of our commonwealth because at the end of

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00:36:34,800 --> 00:36:41,719
Speaker 11: the day, win, loser, drawl. What ultimately matters is that

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00:36:41,760 --> 00:36:44,480
Speaker 11: we know that christ is on the throne.

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00:36:47,480 --> 00:36:51,080
Speaker 3: Christ is on the throne, he said, And we thought

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00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:54,040
Speaker 3: Trump was on the throne. This is Cameron when he

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00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:54,840
Speaker 3: won the primary.

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Speaker 10: A big thank you to President Donald J. Trump for

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Speaker 10: his support and here's endorsement of this campaign. Let me

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00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:06,520
Speaker 10: just say, let me just say, the Trump culture of

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Speaker 10: winning is alive and well in Kentucky.

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Speaker 3: Except it wasn't last night. As it turned out, Andy

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Speaker 3: Basheer wins a remarkable race as a Democrat in Kentucky.

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Speaker 3: And that's where we want to start our conversation with

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Speaker 3: Wendy Benjamins in Bloomberg of course, Washington Senior Editor and

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00:37:28,600 --> 00:37:31,320
Speaker 3: Mark Niquette is with us from the great state of Ohio.

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg Politics Reporter, It's great to see you both here. Wendy,

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00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:39,759
Speaker 3: your thoughts on that the takeaways for Donald Trump on

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00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:42,000
Speaker 3: a night like that, He took to Truth by the

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00:37:42,000 --> 00:37:45,880
Speaker 3: Way and said that Daniel Cameron lost because of the

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Speaker 3: taint or the stench or something of Mitch McConnell. Mitch mcconne,

685
00:37:50,239 --> 00:37:53,000
Speaker 3: Oh my goodness, what about the stench of Donald Trump.

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Speaker 13: Well, yes, but Donald Trump doesn't think there's an He's

687
00:37:56,280 --> 00:37:57,200
Speaker 13: none electoral.

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00:37:57,719 --> 00:38:00,279
Speaker 3: Did he play a big role in this campaign, because

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Speaker 3: we're going to next talk about how Democrats had a

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00:38:02,480 --> 00:38:02,879
Speaker 3: big night.

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00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:05,520
Speaker 13: No, no, I mean Donald Trump really has his hands

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00:38:05,520 --> 00:38:07,920
Speaker 13: full with the trial the New York fraud Trilley who

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00:38:07,920 --> 00:38:10,759
Speaker 13: scores on the stand on Monday. So he was not

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00:38:10,920 --> 00:38:14,279
Speaker 13: really campaigning for this one at all, and I'm not

695
00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:18,000
Speaker 13: sure it often helped. Remember in the midterms in last year,

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00:38:18,880 --> 00:38:23,320
Speaker 13: the people he campaigned for and the most MAGA candidates lost.

697
00:38:23,400 --> 00:38:26,560
Speaker 13: And I think overall, what this election told us last

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00:38:26,640 --> 00:38:31,560
Speaker 13: night was that voters are certainly in favor of abortion rights,

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00:38:31,880 --> 00:38:37,600
Speaker 13: They are certainly interested in the Democratic brand, whether they are,

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00:38:37,800 --> 00:38:40,720
Speaker 13: according to other polls, interested in Joe Biden and Kamala

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00:38:40,760 --> 00:38:42,760
Speaker 13: Harris as the big unanswered question.

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Speaker 4: Well, that's right.

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Speaker 3: I used this race in Kentucky as an entry point mark.

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Speaker 3: But I wonder your thoughts on some of the bigger

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00:38:49,680 --> 00:38:53,279
Speaker 3: picture takeaways from yesterday. When we look at the state

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00:38:53,320 --> 00:38:55,840
Speaker 3: of Virginia, for instance, a lot of folks thought that

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00:38:55,880 --> 00:39:00,279
Speaker 3: would be a red wave that sent Glenn Younkin running

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00:39:00,320 --> 00:39:04,520
Speaker 3: into the presidential campaign. Neither happening here. And of course

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00:39:04,520 --> 00:39:08,200
Speaker 3: what happened in Ohio. Wendy mentioned abortion, and that does

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00:39:08,200 --> 00:39:09,960
Speaker 3: seem to be a big part of the takeaway from

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00:39:10,080 --> 00:39:13,200
Speaker 3: races we saw in all of these states. What's your

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00:39:13,280 --> 00:39:16,760
Speaker 3: view today.

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Speaker 14: I don't know how you cannot say this was a

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00:39:17,120 --> 00:39:20,799
Speaker 14: good night for Democrats. In Virginia, Governor Younkin went all

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00:39:20,840 --> 00:39:25,319
Speaker 14: in to keep Republican control of the House of Delegates

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00:39:25,400 --> 00:39:28,440
Speaker 14: and flipped the Senate. This is going to be his springboard,

717
00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:31,239
Speaker 14: I think, to a run for president in twenty twenty eight.

718
00:39:31,680 --> 00:39:32,640
Speaker 9: That didn't work out.

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00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:37,759
Speaker 14: In Virginia, the Democratic governor won what is clearly a

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Speaker 14: very conservative red state in a year where it shouldn't

721
00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:46,160
Speaker 14: have been good for Democrats given President Biden's low popularity,

722
00:39:46,880 --> 00:39:51,360
Speaker 14: and in Ohio, you had this issue to enshrine abortion

723
00:39:51,480 --> 00:39:55,800
Speaker 14: rights in the state constitution passed by thirteen percentage points

724
00:39:56,400 --> 00:40:00,640
Speaker 14: in a state that Donald Trump won twice. Are trending

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00:40:00,640 --> 00:40:04,759
Speaker 14: a red state now, and it just clearly demonstrated that

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00:40:05,680 --> 00:40:08,640
Speaker 14: in a case of abortion, it's an issue that can

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Speaker 14: mobilize Democrats and independents and works against Republicans. Of Republicans

728
00:40:13,360 --> 00:40:17,960
Speaker 14: haven't figured out how to message abortion after the Supreme

729
00:40:17,960 --> 00:40:23,880
Speaker 14: Court decision overturning abortion and abortion rights. And you know,

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Speaker 14: clearly the results in Ohio showed that, you know, Republicans,

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00:40:27,080 --> 00:40:32,960
Speaker 14: particularly suburban women, Republican women, are going to turn out

732
00:40:33,280 --> 00:40:35,480
Speaker 14: and vote for abortion rights.

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Speaker 13: Well, in the Mark, you're absolutely right. But the yellow

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00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:43,880
Speaker 13: flashing sign for Democrats, Joe, is that in November twenty

735
00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:47,920
Speaker 13: twenty four, when it's probably but not necessarily going to

736
00:40:47,920 --> 00:40:51,800
Speaker 13: be Biden and Trump, abortion rights will not be specifically

737
00:40:51,840 --> 00:40:54,160
Speaker 13: on the ballot maybe in a couple of states, but

738
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Speaker 13: you know that's going then. It's really not about an

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00:40:58,160 --> 00:41:02,280
Speaker 13: issue that as Mark said, everyone is many many voters

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00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:05,040
Speaker 13: are getting behind. It's going to be that choice that

741
00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:07,040
Speaker 13: very few voters really want to make.

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00:41:07,120 --> 00:41:09,520
Speaker 3: It could be six states if those ballot measures I

743
00:41:09,560 --> 00:41:12,000
Speaker 3: guess are approved. So it's not like the whole country

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00:41:12,040 --> 00:41:13,479
Speaker 3: is going to be dealing with this as an issue.

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00:41:13,480 --> 00:41:17,040
Speaker 3: To your point, although the overhang of Roe, That's true,

746
00:41:17,239 --> 00:41:20,840
Speaker 3: and that national effect is still very real, is it not?

747
00:41:21,080 --> 00:41:23,840
Speaker 13: It is and the White House or the Biden Reelette

748
00:41:23,840 --> 00:41:26,560
Speaker 13: campaign has decided to make Vice President Kamala Harris the

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Speaker 13: spokeswoman for abortion rights, and she is an effective advocate

750
00:41:31,200 --> 00:41:33,799
Speaker 13: on it. She can bring it out. She herself is

751
00:41:33,800 --> 00:41:36,640
Speaker 13: not as popular as even Joe Biden, I think, but

752
00:41:36,840 --> 00:41:39,480
Speaker 13: she can really speak to abortion in a way that

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00:41:39,560 --> 00:41:43,799
Speaker 13: Joe Biden is very uncomfortable speaking about it because he's

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00:41:43,840 --> 00:41:47,120
Speaker 13: always been a little doubting on abortion rights.

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00:41:47,120 --> 00:41:51,000
Speaker 3: Anyway, Mark Niquette, Wendy mentioned the Democrat brand and it

756
00:41:51,080 --> 00:41:55,480
Speaker 3: wasn't only abortion in Ohio, it was cannabis. What do

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Speaker 3: you make of these takeaways when you put them together,

758
00:41:58,760 --> 00:42:02,120
Speaker 3: and does it reshape your view of Ohio.

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00:42:03,680 --> 00:42:05,880
Speaker 9: Not for the general in a presidential race.

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Speaker 14: I mean, I think Ohio will not be in play

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00:42:10,080 --> 00:42:13,520
Speaker 14: in the presidential race, but I think it shows how

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00:42:13,560 --> 00:42:18,640
Speaker 14: these issues can be motivating factors for turnout. Abortion in particular,

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00:42:18,680 --> 00:42:22,279
Speaker 14: I think will be used in Ohio to try and

764
00:42:22,840 --> 00:42:26,719
Speaker 14: increase Democratic turnout and you know, maybe work against some

765
00:42:26,760 --> 00:42:31,040
Speaker 14: of the suburban vote. The supporters of Issue one think

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00:42:31,160 --> 00:42:37,680
Speaker 14: having the separate ballot issue to legalize recreational marijuana help

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00:42:38,160 --> 00:42:40,799
Speaker 14: drive turnout of younger voters, which helped them on the

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00:42:40,800 --> 00:42:45,200
Speaker 14: abortion issue. But the abortion results were very interesting. In Ohio,

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Speaker 14: you had eighteen counties that voted for Trump in twenty

770
00:42:49,880 --> 00:42:55,960
Speaker 14: twenty support the abortion rights amendment and in some cases,

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00:42:56,080 --> 00:42:57,000
Speaker 14: you know, pretty.

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00:42:58,360 --> 00:42:59,319
Speaker 9: In a big way.

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00:43:00,239 --> 00:43:02,000
Speaker 14: And what's interesting about that is a lot of these

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00:43:02,000 --> 00:43:06,560
Speaker 14: counties are suburban counties, like around Columbus, the state capitol,

775
00:43:07,080 --> 00:43:11,520
Speaker 14: and in northeast Ohio, we're sort of working class voters

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00:43:11,560 --> 00:43:14,640
Speaker 14: who used to be Democrats but came over to Trump

777
00:43:14,640 --> 00:43:16,600
Speaker 14: and are pretty strong Trump supporters.

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00:43:16,800 --> 00:43:19,040
Speaker 9: They went for the abortion issue.

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Speaker 14: So it just kind of shows how abortion can be

780
00:43:22,480 --> 00:43:26,919
Speaker 14: a factor as an issue in the race. But you know,

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Speaker 14: as you said before, it's not going to be a

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00:43:29,520 --> 00:43:31,400
Speaker 14: race about abortion. It's going to be a race about

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00:43:32,120 --> 00:43:36,040
Speaker 14: the presidency in particular a choice between Trump and Biden.

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Speaker 3: Well, as we pull this into a bigger conversation about

785
00:43:39,239 --> 00:43:42,200
Speaker 3: twenty twenty four, we had the New York Times sianopol

786
00:43:42,960 --> 00:43:45,320
Speaker 3: which freaked out a lot of Democrats here in Washington

787
00:43:45,360 --> 00:43:49,160
Speaker 3: for lack of a better term, Wendy, and I'm looking

788
00:43:49,160 --> 00:43:53,799
Speaker 3: at Marquette University today. This is specific to Wisconsin and

789
00:43:53,880 --> 00:43:59,799
Speaker 3: these matchups Nikki Haley fifty three, Biden forty four DeSantis

790
00:44:00,840 --> 00:44:05,640
Speaker 3: Biden forty eight. Not quite the spread here, but Biden

791
00:44:05,760 --> 00:44:09,120
Speaker 3: still beats Donald Trump. And I wonder how that will

792
00:44:09,120 --> 00:44:12,719
Speaker 3: inform what you're going to be looking for tonight in

793
00:44:12,760 --> 00:44:16,120
Speaker 3: this Republican debate, because the two aiming for second at

794
00:44:16,160 --> 00:44:21,200
Speaker 3: least in this hypothetical in Wisconsin could beat Jobiden absolutely.

795
00:44:21,440 --> 00:44:24,680
Speaker 13: And that is what Nikki Haley's going to come out

796
00:44:24,760 --> 00:44:27,480
Speaker 13: swinging on a lot of issues on this because she

797
00:44:27,680 --> 00:44:30,959
Speaker 13: is ascendant in the polls as Dissantis sort of either

798
00:44:31,000 --> 00:44:34,840
Speaker 13: stays the same or drops, but she really thinks she

799
00:44:34,920 --> 00:44:39,239
Speaker 13: could be the last person standing if Donald Trump goes down.

800
00:44:39,280 --> 00:44:41,120
Speaker 13: One of the things that was interesting in that New

801
00:44:41,160 --> 00:44:46,600
Speaker 13: York Times senapol is that voters, especially independents, who would

802
00:44:46,680 --> 00:44:51,520
Speaker 13: vote for Trump over Biden while he's under indictment, would

803
00:44:51,640 --> 00:44:56,000
Speaker 13: change their vote once if he ever became a convicted felon.

804
00:44:56,400 --> 00:45:02,480
Speaker 13: That convicted felon, maybe the bar switch people off Donald Trump.

805
00:45:02,680 --> 00:45:05,640
Speaker 13: And if that's the case, six percent is actually enough

806
00:45:05,680 --> 00:45:09,040
Speaker 13: in a close election to beat it. So if he

807
00:45:09,120 --> 00:45:11,960
Speaker 13: becomes a convicted felon, let's say it happens before the

808
00:45:12,000 --> 00:45:18,040
Speaker 13: convention somehow, in some political movie that I can write someday,

809
00:45:18,160 --> 00:45:21,720
Speaker 13: you know, Nikki Haley becomes the Republican nominee, then Bind's

810
00:45:21,719 --> 00:45:22,560
Speaker 13: in real trouble.

811
00:45:23,560 --> 00:45:26,520
Speaker 3: Mark, what are your thoughts in helping our listeners and

812
00:45:26,600 --> 00:45:28,680
Speaker 3: viewers prepare for this debate tonight?

813
00:45:28,719 --> 00:45:30,000
Speaker 4: It's going to be the third round.

814
00:45:30,000 --> 00:45:33,560
Speaker 3: We've got five candidates on stage and with the backdrop

815
00:45:33,600 --> 00:45:37,719
Speaker 3: that we just laid out here, who will have your

816
00:45:37,760 --> 00:45:39,120
Speaker 3: attention tonight in Miami?

817
00:45:40,440 --> 00:45:41,040
Speaker 9: Well, it looks like.

818
00:45:40,960 --> 00:45:44,200
Speaker 14: It's going to be a fight between Ron DeSantis and

819
00:45:44,239 --> 00:45:47,000
Speaker 14: Nicky Haley. Is when he said for second place to

820
00:45:47,040 --> 00:45:50,000
Speaker 14: try to be sort of the Trump alternative. So it'd

821
00:45:50,040 --> 00:45:53,520
Speaker 14: be interesting, you know, to what level that sparring actually

822
00:45:53,600 --> 00:45:56,399
Speaker 14: takes place. But I'll be interested to see, you know,

823
00:45:56,480 --> 00:45:59,920
Speaker 14: how Nicky Haley tries to use the issue of abortion

824
00:46:00,080 --> 00:46:03,640
Speaker 14: in this debate. I mean, she has more, you know,

825
00:46:03,840 --> 00:46:07,760
Speaker 14: stick out a more moderate position on abortion than Ron DeSantis,

826
00:46:07,800 --> 00:46:10,640
Speaker 14: who supported a you know, a six week heartbeat bill

827
00:46:11,080 --> 00:46:15,760
Speaker 14: U band kind of issue. And I think the results

828
00:46:15,760 --> 00:46:19,279
Speaker 14: from last night sort of suggests that a majority of

829
00:46:19,320 --> 00:46:24,560
Speaker 14: voters are towards the more moderate, you know, restrictions on

830
00:46:24,600 --> 00:46:29,560
Speaker 14: abortion rather than you know, the more strict six week bands.

831
00:46:30,920 --> 00:46:33,480
Speaker 13: Well, and after last night, it'll be really interesting to

832
00:46:33,480 --> 00:46:36,000
Speaker 13: see if Nikki Haley and some of those others are

833
00:46:36,080 --> 00:46:40,000
Speaker 13: as unapologetically pro life as they have coined themselves in

834
00:46:40,080 --> 00:46:44,880
Speaker 13: previous debates, knowing that it's a loser even in places

835
00:46:44,920 --> 00:46:49,760
Speaker 13: like Ohio and Kansas and other conservative rock red ribbed

836
00:46:49,800 --> 00:46:54,560
Speaker 13: states that have rock ribbed red states I guess that

837
00:46:54,719 --> 00:46:56,839
Speaker 13: have that have been trying abortion rights.

838
00:46:56,840 --> 00:46:59,520
Speaker 3: Well, it's gonna be something to watch this evening the

839
00:46:59,520 --> 00:47:02,160
Speaker 3: debate in the spin room, and I appreciate your coming

840
00:47:02,200 --> 00:47:04,520
Speaker 3: over to talk to us about it. Wendy Benjaminson with

841
00:47:04,600 --> 00:47:08,560
Speaker 3: us from Washington, Mark Niquette from Ohio. After an important

842
00:47:08,680 --> 00:47:10,880
Speaker 3: election night, Thanks to both of you for the insights

843
00:47:11,160 --> 00:47:13,760
Speaker 3: today on Bloomberg Sound On, as we add the voice

844
00:47:14,280 --> 00:47:17,319
Speaker 3: of another expert here and in fact, someone who knows

845
00:47:17,360 --> 00:47:19,600
Speaker 3: these poll numbers probably a lot better than we do,

846
00:47:19,680 --> 00:47:22,480
Speaker 3: and as in fact prepared a presidential candidate for a

847
00:47:22,520 --> 00:47:25,439
Speaker 3: debate like this. That would be Jim Messina. Jim, it's

848
00:47:25,440 --> 00:47:28,319
Speaker 3: great to see you. Welcome back to Bloomberg Sound On.

849
00:47:28,600 --> 00:47:31,360
Speaker 3: It's a pleasure, of course, CEO the Messina Group, former

850
00:47:31,400 --> 00:47:34,000
Speaker 3: Deputy chief of staff to President Obama.

851
00:47:34,320 --> 00:47:35,280
Speaker 4: This is a tough world.

852
00:47:35,280 --> 00:47:37,520
Speaker 3: I guess if you're competing for second, my goodness, the

853
00:47:37,520 --> 00:47:40,040
Speaker 3: front runner doesn't even show up. So what's the strategy

854
00:47:40,080 --> 00:47:42,640
Speaker 3: tonight for Aronda Santis or a Nikki Haley?

855
00:47:42,640 --> 00:47:43,960
Speaker 4: What would you tell him?

856
00:47:44,960 --> 00:47:47,759
Speaker 15: Well, look, I agree with Wendy. I think it's important

857
00:47:48,040 --> 00:47:51,240
Speaker 15: tonight to stand out. You are competing for one lane

858
00:47:51,239 --> 00:47:54,080
Speaker 15: and one lane only, which is to be the Trump alternative.

859
00:47:54,560 --> 00:47:57,319
Speaker 15: And what is chilling these guys right now, Joe, is

860
00:47:57,320 --> 00:47:59,640
Speaker 15: that there's too many of them, and so they need

861
00:47:59,719 --> 00:48:02,080
Speaker 15: some these guys to get out. They were happy that

862
00:48:02,160 --> 00:48:03,640
Speaker 15: Pence got out last week.

863
00:48:03,960 --> 00:48:06,200
Speaker 9: They need some more of these folks. And so they

864
00:48:06,239 --> 00:48:07,240
Speaker 9: got to do two things.

865
00:48:07,280 --> 00:48:09,600
Speaker 15: They got to look presidential and look like they can

866
00:48:09,640 --> 00:48:12,600
Speaker 15: do this, and they need to stand up to the

867
00:48:12,719 --> 00:48:16,120
Speaker 15: other potentials who are going to swing at them, and

868
00:48:16,239 --> 00:48:17,200
Speaker 15: you know, try not to.

869
00:48:17,120 --> 00:48:18,840
Speaker 9: Have an oops moment.

870
00:48:19,280 --> 00:48:21,880
Speaker 15: And so if I was advising either DeSantis or Haley,

871
00:48:21,920 --> 00:48:25,080
Speaker 15: I'd say stick to your own message first, kind of

872
00:48:25,239 --> 00:48:28,640
Speaker 15: shuck off the back and forth and don't let them

873
00:48:28,760 --> 00:48:31,799
Speaker 15: hit you and just try to look at the electorate

874
00:48:31,880 --> 00:48:35,440
Speaker 15: and make your case why you should be the Republican

875
00:48:35,480 --> 00:48:36,440
Speaker 15: nominee for president.

876
00:48:37,480 --> 00:48:40,880
Speaker 3: Nikki Haley's got a major differentiator now that Mike Pence

877
00:48:41,200 --> 00:48:44,120
Speaker 3: is out of the race, Jim, and that's firsthand experience

878
00:48:44,200 --> 00:48:47,200
Speaker 3: with foreign policy. Wouldn't you just talk about Israel and

879
00:48:47,320 --> 00:48:49,680
Speaker 3: Ukraine and Russia and China all night?

880
00:48:51,680 --> 00:48:54,400
Speaker 15: Yes and no, Joe on one hand, he asked, But

881
00:48:54,640 --> 00:48:57,080
Speaker 15: you know she doesn't agree with the majority of her

882
00:48:57,200 --> 00:49:00,600
Speaker 15: party on a couple of those issues, right. You know,

883
00:49:01,840 --> 00:49:05,520
Speaker 15: she's always been more pro engagement in the modern Trump

884
00:49:05,560 --> 00:49:08,400
Speaker 15: Republican Party who doesn't want to be in some of

885
00:49:08,400 --> 00:49:12,320
Speaker 15: those places, and so that makes her messaging more difficult.

886
00:49:12,520 --> 00:49:16,000
Speaker 15: I would absolutely attempt to, you know, talk about leadership

887
00:49:16,040 --> 00:49:19,520
Speaker 15: and move this to that. But you know, voters tend

888
00:49:19,560 --> 00:49:21,239
Speaker 15: to care way more about what you're going to do

889
00:49:21,280 --> 00:49:23,719
Speaker 15: for them and why they should be excited about you,

890
00:49:23,760 --> 00:49:25,680
Speaker 15: and part of primaries is about excitement.

891
00:49:26,120 --> 00:49:27,240
Speaker 9: And so she's got.

892
00:49:27,000 --> 00:49:29,080
Speaker 15: To figure a way to kind of continue to be

893
00:49:29,320 --> 00:49:33,120
Speaker 15: the candidate of the moment, which she's done really good

894
00:49:33,120 --> 00:49:35,920
Speaker 15: at the Other thing is I'm glad you raised that

895
00:49:35,960 --> 00:49:39,279
Speaker 15: Wisconsin pul earlier. You know, the thing that's propping up

896
00:49:39,320 --> 00:49:41,600
Speaker 15: Trump right now is the belief that he can be Biden.

897
00:49:42,080 --> 00:49:45,000
Speaker 15: And now there's starting to be data out there in Wisconsin, which,

898
00:49:45,120 --> 00:49:48,400
Speaker 15: for your viewers and listeners, is now the most important

899
00:49:48,400 --> 00:49:50,759
Speaker 15: state in America. Wisconsin is the state where when you

900
00:49:50,800 --> 00:49:54,279
Speaker 15: run computer simulations, that's the state that gives you the presidency.

901
00:49:54,800 --> 00:49:57,360
Speaker 15: And the fact that Donald Trump can't win that state

902
00:49:58,120 --> 00:50:02,080
Speaker 15: right now, but Haley and Santas can't. If they can't

903
00:50:02,160 --> 00:50:06,360
Speaker 15: make that sale to the Republican base, there's no sale

904
00:50:06,400 --> 00:50:09,040
Speaker 15: to be made. I still think this primary is already

905
00:50:09,040 --> 00:50:11,799
Speaker 15: over and they're competing for the VP. Joe, But you know,

906
00:50:11,840 --> 00:50:14,279
Speaker 15: tonight's tonight they've got to move here.

907
00:50:15,640 --> 00:50:18,080
Speaker 3: You do believe the primary is over? You just answered

908
00:50:18,560 --> 00:50:22,239
Speaker 3: my next question. So this whole exercise tonight is one

909
00:50:22,400 --> 00:50:24,960
Speaker 3: in vain just in case something bad happens to Donald Trump.

910
00:50:26,239 --> 00:50:31,120
Speaker 15: Dolland Trump has the largest lead of any primary candidate

911
00:50:31,239 --> 00:50:34,160
Speaker 15: in our modern lifetime. Now, let's not get too excited

912
00:50:34,160 --> 00:50:37,040
Speaker 15: about that. The previous record holder was Hillary Clinton over

913
00:50:37,080 --> 00:50:39,000
Speaker 15: Barack Obama in two thousand and eight.

914
00:50:40,120 --> 00:50:40,840
Speaker 9: I don't think.

915
00:50:40,719 --> 00:50:43,799
Speaker 15: We're going to compare the Santas and Nikki to Barack Obama.

916
00:50:44,640 --> 00:50:47,000
Speaker 15: So you know, I'm to quote the great movie line,

917
00:50:47,040 --> 00:50:50,560
Speaker 15: there's still a chance, Joe, but I you know, he's

918
00:50:50,560 --> 00:50:54,200
Speaker 15: over fifty in all these In Ron DeSantis' home state

919
00:50:54,239 --> 00:50:56,800
Speaker 15: of Florida, there was a pull out yesterday that showed

920
00:50:56,800 --> 00:50:59,799
Speaker 15: Trump leading him by thirty nine points, and so that

921
00:51:00,239 --> 00:51:02,960
Speaker 15: shows you the hill. These folks are climbing up, and

922
00:51:03,040 --> 00:51:05,640
Speaker 15: at some point their version of me is going to

923
00:51:05,680 --> 00:51:07,960
Speaker 15: walk in the room and say, hey, can we have

924
00:51:08,000 --> 00:51:11,080
Speaker 15: a private conversation. Do you think you're running for president

925
00:51:11,239 --> 00:51:14,080
Speaker 15: or do you think you're running for vice president? Because

926
00:51:14,120 --> 00:51:16,359
Speaker 15: that is a whole different thing about what you say

927
00:51:16,360 --> 00:51:17,320
Speaker 15: about Donald Trump.

928
00:51:19,360 --> 00:51:21,120
Speaker 4: So you're saying there's a chance.

929
00:51:21,520 --> 00:51:24,960
Speaker 3: Spending time with Jim Messina, I was taken by a

930
00:51:25,040 --> 00:51:28,480
Speaker 3: tweet from Larry Sabadow Jim, he's going to join us

931
00:51:28,520 --> 00:51:31,640
Speaker 3: later on today on Bloomberg TV, and he was reacting

932
00:51:31,680 --> 00:51:34,920
Speaker 3: to the Virginia election results, which I'd love to hear

933
00:51:34,960 --> 00:51:37,520
Speaker 3: from you on. Of course, a lot of folks thought

934
00:51:37,560 --> 00:51:42,080
Speaker 3: this would be a make or break situation for Glenn Youngkin.

935
00:51:42,120 --> 00:51:44,440
Speaker 3: A lot of folks thought it would make a potential

936
00:51:44,520 --> 00:51:47,840
Speaker 3: presidential campaign if Glenn Youngkin the governor could run the

937
00:51:47,880 --> 00:51:51,160
Speaker 3: table turn the legislature read the opposite, of course happened,

938
00:51:51,760 --> 00:51:55,880
Speaker 3: and as Sabbado writes on Twitter, clearance sale, he writes,

939
00:51:55,960 --> 00:52:00,280
Speaker 3: Jim All Youngin for President twenty four merchandise of free

940
00:52:00,400 --> 00:52:04,880
Speaker 3: my pillow comes with all purchases over a dollar, no returns.

941
00:52:05,640 --> 00:52:09,720
Speaker 3: Did Glenn Youngkin just surrender his chances to be president?

942
00:52:10,920 --> 00:52:11,839
Speaker 9: Oh? Absolutely?

943
00:52:11,920 --> 00:52:14,120
Speaker 15: And I think he kind of had already because he

944
00:52:14,160 --> 00:52:14,800
Speaker 15: wasn't running.

945
00:52:14,800 --> 00:52:17,480
Speaker 4: And is that just for this cycle or ever?

946
00:52:19,000 --> 00:52:22,040
Speaker 15: Oh, I don't know about ever. Voters don't have that long.

947
00:52:22,200 --> 00:52:25,360
Speaker 15: But you know, he was styled as the guy that

948
00:52:25,440 --> 00:52:28,440
Speaker 15: could unite the party, that the conservatives could get behind,

949
00:52:28,480 --> 00:52:30,640
Speaker 15: but then the moderates who could win in the suburbs.

950
00:52:30,680 --> 00:52:32,959
Speaker 15: And you know the problem you and I have talked

951
00:52:33,000 --> 00:52:35,880
Speaker 15: in the past about abortion, and that this was like,

952
00:52:35,960 --> 00:52:38,719
Speaker 15: you know, the Republicans have been chasing that car for

953
00:52:38,719 --> 00:52:40,360
Speaker 15: a long time and then finally the dog.

954
00:52:40,239 --> 00:52:40,880
Speaker 9: Caught the car.

955
00:52:41,320 --> 00:52:43,680
Speaker 15: Well, the theory was Youngkin had a new message on

956
00:52:43,760 --> 00:52:46,359
Speaker 15: abortion that could appeal to the suburbs and they could

957
00:52:46,440 --> 00:52:50,759
Speaker 15: win on And that message was clearly and roundly repudiated

958
00:52:50,840 --> 00:52:55,040
Speaker 15: last night, both in Virginia and Ohio. And so not

959
00:52:55,080 --> 00:52:57,640
Speaker 15: only did they catch the car Joe, the car blew

960
00:52:57,719 --> 00:52:58,200
Speaker 15: up on them.

961
00:52:58,760 --> 00:52:59,920
Speaker 9: And so now.

962
00:52:59,640 --> 00:53:02,120
Speaker 15: Everyone one is sitting here saying, what are we going

963
00:53:02,160 --> 00:53:05,640
Speaker 15: to say about abortion? Because the message we thought we

964
00:53:05,680 --> 00:53:08,600
Speaker 15: had just didn't work in a place that we all

965
00:53:08,600 --> 00:53:11,600
Speaker 15: thought it should. And Yonkin is going to take a

966
00:53:11,680 --> 00:53:14,279
Speaker 15: whole bunch of that responsibility from a whole bunch of

967
00:53:14,400 --> 00:53:16,120
Speaker 15: very angry Republicans today.

968
00:53:16,840 --> 00:53:18,400
Speaker 4: Well, yeah, he was upfront about it.

969
00:53:18,440 --> 00:53:21,640
Speaker 3: He told people that if Republicans took power, they would

970
00:53:21,840 --> 00:53:23,399
Speaker 3: implement a fifteen week ban.

971
00:53:24,080 --> 00:53:26,520
Speaker 4: So let's extrapolate this.

972
00:53:26,600 --> 00:53:29,879
Speaker 3: You're preparing a twenty four campaign for president, or you're

973
00:53:29,960 --> 00:53:32,719
Speaker 3: advising at Jim Messina, what did you learn last night

974
00:53:33,239 --> 00:53:35,600
Speaker 3: that you might not have known otherwise that you can

975
00:53:35,920 --> 00:53:37,759
Speaker 3: actionalize in the next year.

976
00:53:39,280 --> 00:53:43,439
Speaker 15: Two things, One, it's interesting to look at who turned

977
00:53:43,440 --> 00:53:46,600
Speaker 15: out last night. There wasn't massive turnout in these places.

978
00:53:46,680 --> 00:53:49,440
Speaker 15: Both parties didn't get the historic turnout they got in

979
00:53:49,480 --> 00:53:52,600
Speaker 15: the last couple elections. What that means is that both

980
00:53:52,640 --> 00:53:54,040
Speaker 15: parties are going to have to worry a little bit

981
00:53:54,120 --> 00:53:57,000
Speaker 15: more about turning out their own voters. And the second

982
00:53:57,000 --> 00:53:58,640
Speaker 15: thing with you and I just talked about, Joe, is

983
00:53:58,960 --> 00:54:01,520
Speaker 15: I think both parties were waiting to see if abortion

984
00:54:01,680 --> 00:54:04,720
Speaker 15: was still an issue. It clearly was an issue in Dobbs.

985
00:54:04,760 --> 00:54:07,719
Speaker 15: It clearly was an issue in the twenty twenty two midterms.

986
00:54:08,200 --> 00:54:10,600
Speaker 15: But you know, there was some view in both parties

987
00:54:10,600 --> 00:54:15,239
Speaker 15: that maybe that issue had gone away, not gone away. Absolutely,

988
00:54:15,560 --> 00:54:19,760
Speaker 15: look at the Ohio number thirteen points, like nothing passes

989
00:54:19,760 --> 00:54:20,600
Speaker 15: by thirteen points.

990
00:54:20,600 --> 00:54:23,520
Speaker 9: It passed by more than the free weed initiative.

991
00:54:23,080 --> 00:54:27,879
Speaker 15: Like come on, and then Pennsylvania spring court race last night,

992
00:54:28,280 --> 00:54:30,000
Speaker 15: and then in all those Virginia.

993
00:54:29,680 --> 00:54:30,840
Speaker 9: Louden County seats.

994
00:54:31,040 --> 00:54:34,799
Speaker 15: So the other thing I learned is both parties are

995
00:54:34,800 --> 00:54:38,000
Speaker 15: going to be talking about abortion next year as well.

996
00:54:38,400 --> 00:54:39,680
Speaker 4: You mentioned Louden County.

997
00:54:40,120 --> 00:54:43,080
Speaker 3: Not to get too hyper local for our listeners around

998
00:54:43,080 --> 00:54:46,359
Speaker 3: the country and around the world, but trends rights were

999
00:54:46,400 --> 00:54:48,279
Speaker 3: just a very big deal in that area.

1000
00:54:48,320 --> 00:54:49,960
Speaker 4: It helped to get Glenn Youngkin elected.

1001
00:54:50,000 --> 00:54:53,600
Speaker 3: In fact, on having parents become more involved in curriculum

1002
00:54:53,960 --> 00:54:57,360
Speaker 3: and policies like these, was that a rebuke to some extent?

1003
00:54:57,400 --> 00:54:58,319
Speaker 4: How do you read into it?

1004
00:55:00,080 --> 00:55:02,760
Speaker 15: Yeah, I think I'm not sure it was a rebuke.

1005
00:55:02,800 --> 00:55:03,600
Speaker 9: I mean it could be.

1006
00:55:04,640 --> 00:55:09,200
Speaker 15: I think that largely abortion became a bigger issue. You know,

1007
00:55:09,360 --> 00:55:12,600
Speaker 15: I also think that Youonkin wasn't.

1008
00:55:12,400 --> 00:55:13,000
Speaker 9: On the ballot.

1009
00:55:13,160 --> 00:55:14,839
Speaker 15: You know, this is the problem that Republicans have had

1010
00:55:14,920 --> 00:55:17,279
Speaker 15: with Trump. It's a problem we had as Democrats without

1011
00:55:17,280 --> 00:55:20,200
Speaker 15: Obama on the ballot. Can you turn your voters out

1012
00:55:20,280 --> 00:55:23,720
Speaker 15: without you on the ballot? And so far the data

1013
00:55:23,760 --> 00:55:27,359
Speaker 15: for both parties is it's hard And last night those

1014
00:55:27,440 --> 00:55:31,880
Speaker 15: Yonkin swing voters in Loudon County went Democrat. And you know,

1015
00:55:32,040 --> 00:55:35,479
Speaker 15: and so they're both parts are looking up today to say,

1016
00:55:35,640 --> 00:55:38,640
Speaker 15: is Virginia really a swing state in the presidential election?

1017
00:55:40,000 --> 00:55:43,320
Speaker 3: Well, we're looking at as many as six states based

1018
00:55:43,360 --> 00:55:46,000
Speaker 3: on our reporting, that could have abortion on the ballot

1019
00:55:46,320 --> 00:55:48,960
Speaker 3: in twenty twenty four. Obviously it's not going to be

1020
00:55:49,120 --> 00:55:53,960
Speaker 3: a national vote, but it could be a national issue.

1021
00:55:54,239 --> 00:55:59,919
Speaker 3: To your point, to what extent did Joe Biden's successful

1022
00:56:00,040 --> 00:56:03,480
Speaker 3: outcomes state by state depend on abortion being on the ballot,

1023
00:56:05,800 --> 00:56:06,800
Speaker 3: It's a great question.

1024
00:56:07,120 --> 00:56:09,399
Speaker 15: I don't think that's how it works, because I think

1025
00:56:09,640 --> 00:56:11,319
Speaker 15: it doesn't need to be in the ballot. I think,

1026
00:56:11,400 --> 00:56:13,520
Speaker 15: you know, this will be the first election since jobs

1027
00:56:14,120 --> 00:56:18,040
Speaker 15: where the presidential election could be a referendum on abortion,

1028
00:56:18,280 --> 00:56:20,880
Speaker 15: because you're going to have very clear difference. Trump has

1029
00:56:20,880 --> 00:56:24,040
Speaker 15: said repeatedly, you know I'm proud to appointed these judges.

1030
00:56:24,160 --> 00:56:26,120
Speaker 15: I'm the guy who got rid of rov Wade. Biden

1031
00:56:26,280 --> 00:56:28,400
Speaker 15: said repeatedly, I want to pass the bill to codify

1032
00:56:28,480 --> 00:56:31,520
Speaker 15: a ro v Wade. And in those swing states, to

1033
00:56:31,560 --> 00:56:33,280
Speaker 15: your point, it doesn't matter if it's on the ballot,

1034
00:56:33,360 --> 00:56:36,000
Speaker 15: it's going to be a choice between two very different

1035
00:56:36,520 --> 00:56:39,160
Speaker 15: theories of the case to presidential campaigns.

1036
00:56:40,120 --> 00:56:42,120
Speaker 9: And these swing women voters.

1037
00:56:41,680 --> 00:56:46,440
Speaker 15: That you know, decide presidential elections in Montgomery County in Pennsylvania,

1038
00:56:46,880 --> 00:56:51,080
Speaker 15: in Milwaukee suburbs in Wisconsin, they are going to want

1039
00:56:51,160 --> 00:56:54,080
Speaker 15: to know about people's stance on these issues, no matter

1040
00:56:54,080 --> 00:56:57,120
Speaker 15: if it's on a state referendum, because largely abortion is

1041
00:56:57,160 --> 00:57:00,920
Speaker 15: a national issue for these voters and proven that over

1042
00:57:01,040 --> 00:57:02,480
Speaker 15: and over in the last year.

1043
00:57:03,680 --> 00:57:07,640
Speaker 3: How about that, I haven't asked you, asked you about

1044
00:57:07,680 --> 00:57:10,960
Speaker 3: the Donald Trump effect, and I don't know if you

1045
00:57:11,000 --> 00:57:13,680
Speaker 3: even see one. He was blaming, I think, as he

1046
00:57:13,719 --> 00:57:18,640
Speaker 3: put it, the stench of Mitch McConnell for Daniel Cameron's

1047
00:57:18,720 --> 00:57:22,880
Speaker 3: lost lost in Kentucky last evening where Andy Basheer, the Democrat,

1048
00:57:23,840 --> 00:57:28,600
Speaker 3: wins re election. You're talking about some broad strokes. Here

1049
00:57:28,680 --> 00:57:31,640
Speaker 3: was Donald Trump one of them in this election?

1050
00:57:31,800 --> 00:57:32,080
Speaker 4: Or not.

1051
00:57:33,680 --> 00:57:34,160
Speaker 9: He was.

1052
00:57:34,320 --> 00:57:36,720
Speaker 15: In the twenty twenty two midterm election, Joe, the most

1053
00:57:36,720 --> 00:57:39,120
Speaker 15: determinative factor of how you were going to vote as

1054
00:57:39,160 --> 00:57:42,280
Speaker 15: a swing voter, exit polls showed was your view of

1055
00:57:42,320 --> 00:57:46,000
Speaker 15: Donald Trump. And the problem the Republicans have of Donald

1056
00:57:46,000 --> 00:57:48,880
Speaker 15: Trump is he's an amazing turnout machine, but he tends

1057
00:57:48,920 --> 00:57:52,120
Speaker 15: to endorse these candidates that are hard to win statewide.

1058
00:57:52,720 --> 00:57:56,520
Speaker 15: And the Kentucky race was less about his candidate, more

1059
00:57:56,560 --> 00:58:01,240
Speaker 15: about the Democrats nominated a very conservative Democratic, very successful governor,

1060
00:58:01,640 --> 00:58:03,680
Speaker 15: and one by five points in a state where Donald

1061
00:58:03,680 --> 00:58:06,720
Speaker 15: Trump won by twenty and so that's, you know, that's

1062
00:58:06,760 --> 00:58:10,960
Speaker 15: about good candidates. And so for twenty twenty four, both

1063
00:58:11,000 --> 00:58:13,280
Speaker 15: parties need to nominate people who can win in some.

1064
00:58:13,200 --> 00:58:13,920
Speaker 9: Of these states.

1065
00:58:14,000 --> 00:58:17,400
Speaker 15: And Trump keeps endorsing folks that are really problematic to

1066
00:58:17,440 --> 00:58:21,200
Speaker 15: win in general elections. And that's not Mitch McConnell's fault.

1067
00:58:21,280 --> 00:58:24,960
Speaker 15: That's Donald Trump's fault. And so I'm sure that this morning,

1068
00:58:25,440 --> 00:58:28,560
Speaker 15: you know, you have a very angry Mitch McConnell.

1069
00:58:28,680 --> 00:58:31,400
Speaker 3: Well, so what do you make of all of these

1070
00:58:31,480 --> 00:58:34,360
Speaker 3: polls on many of them on a national level, But

1071
00:58:34,400 --> 00:58:38,840
Speaker 3: you mentioned Wisconsin and we've seen another one today Georgia

1072
00:58:39,040 --> 00:58:43,040
Speaker 3: the CNN poll. Do you believe the conventional wisdom that

1073
00:58:43,120 --> 00:58:46,200
Speaker 3: Joe Biden can only beat Donald Trump?

1074
00:58:46,880 --> 00:58:48,400
Speaker 4: Or could a lot change in the next year?

1075
00:58:49,680 --> 00:58:49,880
Speaker 9: Oh?

1076
00:58:49,920 --> 00:58:52,280
Speaker 15: A lot good change. And it's not me trying to

1077
00:58:52,280 --> 00:58:55,840
Speaker 15: spin your Joe. It's just history, right exactly this time

1078
00:58:56,000 --> 00:58:59,960
Speaker 15: twelve years ago, this weekend's The New York Times magazine

1079
00:59:00,080 --> 00:59:02,400
Speaker 15: put Barack Obama on the cover and said he only

1080
00:59:02,400 --> 00:59:04,880
Speaker 15: had a seventeen percent chance to win based on the polls,

1081
00:59:05,320 --> 00:59:08,120
Speaker 15: and he was toast. That was their words. Is Obama toast?

1082
00:59:08,640 --> 00:59:11,400
Speaker 15: He trailed in every single battleground state, as by the way,

1083
00:59:11,480 --> 00:59:13,960
Speaker 15: Joe did George Bush at the same time in his

1084
00:59:14,000 --> 00:59:17,919
Speaker 15: election cycle, as did Bill Clinton. So you know, there's

1085
00:59:17,960 --> 00:59:20,040
Speaker 15: lots of bed wedding Democrats out there who are losing

1086
00:59:20,040 --> 00:59:22,919
Speaker 15: their minds. There's lots of cocky Republicans. Both of them

1087
00:59:22,960 --> 00:59:26,080
Speaker 15: just need to have a very big beer and realize,

1088
00:59:26,160 --> 00:59:29,360
Speaker 15: to Joe's point, all this can change, and we are

1089
00:59:29,400 --> 00:59:32,360
Speaker 15: a year away, which is a lifetime in American politics,

1090
00:59:32,440 --> 00:59:35,840
Speaker 15: just a lifetime, and you know, the issues could largely

1091
00:59:35,880 --> 00:59:38,560
Speaker 15: be very different. Who thought two months ago we'd be

1092
00:59:38,600 --> 00:59:40,919
Speaker 15: talking about war in the Middle East? And who knows

1093
00:59:40,960 --> 00:59:43,240
Speaker 15: what's going to be going on with China, just the

1094
00:59:43,280 --> 00:59:45,720
Speaker 15: issue that could be wildly different. And so I don't

1095
00:59:45,720 --> 00:59:49,680
Speaker 15: think these polls tell us really anything except for the

1096
00:59:49,760 --> 00:59:53,360
Speaker 15: country's probably not super jacked up to have a rematch.

1097
00:59:54,840 --> 00:59:57,160
Speaker 3: Well, I'll tell you it's interesting you use that term.

1098
00:59:57,200 --> 00:59:58,920
Speaker 3: I was at the White House this morning and spoke

1099
00:59:59,560 --> 01:00:01,520
Speaker 3: with a sea and your official who referred to bed

1100
01:00:01,520 --> 01:00:04,520
Speaker 3: wetting and rubber sheets and was making the same point

1101
01:00:04,560 --> 01:00:06,800
Speaker 3: that you were, Jim. So to the extent that you can,

1102
01:00:07,160 --> 01:00:09,600
Speaker 3: you know, get to the issues you can control, knowing

1103
01:00:09,640 --> 01:00:12,440
Speaker 3: that most people will probably vote first on the economy,

1104
01:00:12,880 --> 01:00:15,959
Speaker 3: You've already got the abortion matter. It sounds like covered here.

1105
01:00:16,320 --> 01:00:18,520
Speaker 3: What do you do for the next year to try

1106
01:00:18,520 --> 01:00:22,040
Speaker 3: to turn around this disconnect between polling numbers and what

1107
01:00:22,160 --> 01:00:25,560
Speaker 3: this White House frames as strong economic data.

1108
01:00:27,080 --> 01:00:28,240
Speaker 9: Yeah, you do two things.

1109
01:00:28,600 --> 01:00:30,600
Speaker 15: First of all, to your point, they've got to get

1110
01:00:30,600 --> 01:00:34,000
Speaker 15: this economic message out, and it's hard. Swing voters only

1111
01:00:34,000 --> 01:00:36,080
Speaker 15: think about politics four minutes a week, and they're just

1112
01:00:36,120 --> 01:00:38,200
Speaker 15: not looking at the data the way you and I are,

1113
01:00:38,640 --> 01:00:40,600
Speaker 15: and so they got to continue to wail away at

1114
01:00:40,600 --> 01:00:43,440
Speaker 15: this and it takes a long time. Joe Biden in

1115
01:00:43,480 --> 01:00:46,400
Speaker 15: twenty twenty, you lost the question of the who's better

1116
01:00:46,440 --> 01:00:49,480
Speaker 15: on the economy, but won the presidency. You know, can

1117
01:00:49,480 --> 01:00:51,480
Speaker 15: he do that again? They don't want to try. They

1118
01:00:51,560 --> 01:00:54,440
Speaker 15: want to win the economic argument. And the second thing

1119
01:00:54,440 --> 01:00:56,400
Speaker 15: they got to do is make this a binary choice

1120
01:00:56,480 --> 01:00:59,160
Speaker 15: between them and Donald Trump. And that's how they won

1121
01:00:59,240 --> 01:01:02,080
Speaker 15: last time. And so the question is when they start that.

1122
01:01:02,280 --> 01:01:04,240
Speaker 15: Right now, they're just talking about their record, which I

1123
01:01:04,280 --> 01:01:06,760
Speaker 15: think is right because they've got more work to do

1124
01:01:06,800 --> 01:01:09,640
Speaker 15: with these swing voters on it. But eventually they will

1125
01:01:09,680 --> 01:01:14,040
Speaker 15: pivot and be very contrast forward message why they are

1126
01:01:14,080 --> 01:01:17,840
Speaker 15: better than Biden. Those two things have to happen to

1127
01:01:17,880 --> 01:01:20,000
Speaker 15: win a presidential election for both sides.

1128
01:01:20,040 --> 01:01:27,439
Speaker 3: Here, how much does actually determining your rival factor into

1129
01:01:27,440 --> 01:01:30,160
Speaker 3: the way that you're presenting the candidate, not in terms

1130
01:01:30,200 --> 01:01:32,640
Speaker 3: of oppo or how you're going to run against somebody,

1131
01:01:32,880 --> 01:01:35,200
Speaker 3: but once you know, all right, it's Donald Trump, or

1132
01:01:35,200 --> 01:01:37,920
Speaker 3: it's Nikki Haley, or it's Ron De Santis, this is

1133
01:01:37,960 --> 01:01:39,560
Speaker 3: the Joe Biden we want to put forward.

1134
01:01:41,320 --> 01:01:42,960
Speaker 9: You know, it doesn't as much as you think. When

1135
01:01:42,960 --> 01:01:44,680
Speaker 9: I ran President Obama's re election.

1136
01:01:44,520 --> 01:01:48,040
Speaker 15: Campaign, you know, we obviously cared very deeply about who

1137
01:01:48,040 --> 01:01:50,200
Speaker 15: came out of the Republican primary. We were hoping it

1138
01:01:50,200 --> 01:01:52,400
Speaker 15: wasn't going to be around me, but it was. But

1139
01:01:52,480 --> 01:01:55,600
Speaker 15: what we learned was that you just had to control

1140
01:01:55,640 --> 01:01:59,000
Speaker 15: your own destiny, and you had to get your message out,

1141
01:01:59,120 --> 01:02:01,840
Speaker 15: and then you had to de buying your opponent. And

1142
01:02:02,200 --> 01:02:05,160
Speaker 15: you know, the Biden campaign is advantaged by this primary

1143
01:02:05,200 --> 01:02:08,480
Speaker 15: process the Republicans are going through because in a very

1144
01:02:08,480 --> 01:02:11,080
Speaker 15: competitive primary, they've all had to endorse the six week

1145
01:02:11,120 --> 01:02:14,480
Speaker 15: abortion ban, which is just horrible politics. They've all had

1146
01:02:14,480 --> 01:02:17,600
Speaker 15: to endorse some of these other really controversial things like

1147
01:02:17,640 --> 01:02:21,360
Speaker 15: cutting Social Security Medicare, and so you know that's helpful

1148
01:02:21,480 --> 01:02:23,960
Speaker 15: to Team Biden that no matter who comes out of

1149
01:02:24,000 --> 01:02:27,040
Speaker 15: that primary, they have taken those positions.

1150
01:02:29,480 --> 01:02:33,480
Speaker 3: They're handing out and planting dark brand in signs in

1151
01:02:33,560 --> 01:02:36,760
Speaker 3: Miami today. I want one of these lawn signs, I

1152
01:02:36,800 --> 01:02:39,960
Speaker 3: have to admit, Jim. I wonder though, if that is

1153
01:02:40,040 --> 01:02:42,440
Speaker 3: going to be the angle here. Does Joe Biden need

1154
01:02:42,480 --> 01:02:44,320
Speaker 3: to scare people a little bit when it comes to

1155
01:02:44,320 --> 01:02:45,960
Speaker 3: Donald Trump or is it going to be city on

1156
01:02:46,040 --> 01:02:48,600
Speaker 3: a hill. I've got the long view as a man

1157
01:02:48,640 --> 01:02:51,960
Speaker 3: of experience, what's the approach in the tone of this campaign?

1158
01:02:53,200 --> 01:02:55,240
Speaker 15: Well, look, if I was them, and thank god, I'm

1159
01:02:55,240 --> 01:02:57,840
Speaker 15: not advising Donald Trump because I'd kill myself. But if

1160
01:02:57,880 --> 01:03:01,320
Speaker 15: I was, I would take a page out of Reagan

1161
01:03:01,560 --> 01:03:03,600
Speaker 15: and do the city on the Hill and try to

1162
01:03:03,600 --> 01:03:05,640
Speaker 15: paint the picture. He has no ability to do that

1163
01:03:05,800 --> 01:03:08,600
Speaker 15: and no sort of interest, and so their theory is

1164
01:03:08,640 --> 01:03:11,600
Speaker 15: going to be burned down. Joe Biden, I just don't

1165
01:03:11,640 --> 01:03:13,960
Speaker 15: think that's how voters think about it. I think they

1166
01:03:14,040 --> 01:03:16,680
Speaker 15: want something to vote for. I think the lesson of

1167
01:03:16,720 --> 01:03:19,080
Speaker 15: Barack Obama, the lesson of George Bush, the lesson of

1168
01:03:19,080 --> 01:03:21,760
Speaker 15: Bill Clinton, the lesson of ron O Reagan, is that

1169
01:03:22,120 --> 01:03:25,800
Speaker 15: positive matters as much as negative and more in some ways,

1170
01:03:26,240 --> 01:03:28,120
Speaker 15: especially when you're trying to do the two things you

1171
01:03:28,120 --> 01:03:30,439
Speaker 15: and I talked about, Joe, which is turn voters out

1172
01:03:30,520 --> 01:03:34,240
Speaker 15: of your party and do swing voters. Your Party's not

1173
01:03:34,280 --> 01:03:36,400
Speaker 15: going to get super jacked about, you know, a year

1174
01:03:36,400 --> 01:03:39,760
Speaker 15: of negative they're going to hear you say something, and

1175
01:03:39,840 --> 01:03:42,240
Speaker 15: so I think, you know, Team Trump has got to

1176
01:03:42,320 --> 01:03:43,960
Speaker 15: learn that lesson from last time.

1177
01:03:45,080 --> 01:03:47,800
Speaker 3: Well, this has been a seminar as usual, and you've

1178
01:03:47,800 --> 01:03:49,520
Speaker 3: been incredibly generous with your time.

1179
01:03:49,600 --> 01:03:49,800
Speaker 1: Jim.

1180
01:03:49,840 --> 01:03:53,200
Speaker 3: I'll ask you lastly about one thing that happened in Ohio.

1181
01:03:53,240 --> 01:03:55,680
Speaker 3: We haven't really talked about, and that was the vote

1182
01:03:55,720 --> 01:04:00,160
Speaker 3: to legalize marijuana. Ohio now the twenty fourth state to

1183
01:04:00,240 --> 01:04:04,160
Speaker 3: legalize the recreational use of cannabis. Why does it remain

1184
01:04:04,280 --> 01:04:06,280
Speaker 3: so controversial here in the nation's capital.

1185
01:04:08,120 --> 01:04:11,880
Speaker 15: It is crazy because people are still fighting old politics,

1186
01:04:11,880 --> 01:04:14,560
Speaker 15: and you have a bunch of older members of Congress

1187
01:04:14,560 --> 01:04:17,439
Speaker 15: who haven't seen what their constituents want. To your point,

1188
01:04:17,480 --> 01:04:20,520
Speaker 15: it's all over the country, Red states, Blue states, My

1189
01:04:20,640 --> 01:04:23,880
Speaker 15: home state, red state of Montana did it like, it's

1190
01:04:23,920 --> 01:04:27,040
Speaker 15: just not controversial at the state level, they're passing hugely.

1191
01:04:27,600 --> 01:04:30,560
Speaker 15: The only place that hasn't gotten the message is this

1192
01:04:30,720 --> 01:04:35,600
Speaker 15: ten square logic free zone called Washington, DC. Sooner or

1193
01:04:35,680 --> 01:04:37,880
Speaker 15: later they got to kind of wake up and realize

1194
01:04:37,880 --> 01:04:41,480
Speaker 15: it if only Joda tax it right, because eventually to

1195
01:04:41,520 --> 01:04:43,720
Speaker 15: do some of the things like reduce the depths at

1196
01:04:43,720 --> 01:04:44,680
Speaker 15: which we need to do.

1197
01:04:44,760 --> 01:04:46,479
Speaker 9: By the way, you're going to have some.

1198
01:04:46,400 --> 01:04:49,760
Speaker 15: Tax increases, and why not tax it, especially when twenty

1199
01:04:49,760 --> 01:04:52,000
Speaker 15: five states have already legalized it. They won't even let

1200
01:04:52,080 --> 01:04:56,240
Speaker 15: federal banks deal in the money, which is just really stupid.

1201
01:04:57,320 --> 01:05:00,360
Speaker 15: So hopefully they're going to wake up and take yes

1202
01:05:00,400 --> 01:05:01,040
Speaker 15: for an answer.

1203
01:05:02,080 --> 01:05:03,880
Speaker 3: I'll be curious to hear if Joe Biden has much

1204
01:05:03,920 --> 01:05:07,959
Speaker 3: to say about that on the campaign trail Moving forward, Jim,

1205
01:05:08,040 --> 01:05:10,680
Speaker 3: great pleasure, good to see you, and many thanks, as

1206
01:05:10,720 --> 01:05:12,960
Speaker 3: I said, for all your time. Jim Assina not only

1207
01:05:13,040 --> 01:05:15,760
Speaker 3: runs the Messina Group, former deputy chief of staff to

1208
01:05:15,840 --> 01:05:19,200
Speaker 3: President Barack Obama who helps to orchestrate the reelection of

1209
01:05:19,280 --> 01:05:22,680
Speaker 3: Barack Obama. It's always fascinating to get inside his head

1210
01:05:22,680 --> 01:05:24,760
Speaker 3: for a moment here as we get these little snapshots.

1211
01:05:24,800 --> 01:05:26,680
Speaker 4: We've got a year ago, but these.

1212
01:05:26,520 --> 01:05:29,440
Speaker 3: Little snapshots along the way in this campaign are what

1213
01:05:29,520 --> 01:05:33,160
Speaker 3: will make you a lot smarter to understand the final results.

1214
01:05:33,920 --> 01:05:36,240
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Sound On podcast. Make sure

1215
01:05:36,280 --> 01:05:39,120
Speaker 3: to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and

1216
01:05:39,200 --> 01:05:41,760
Speaker 3: anywhere else you get your podcasts. And you can find

1217
01:05:41,800 --> 01:05:44,880
Speaker 3: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one pm

1218
01:05:44,960 --> 01:05:49,000
Speaker 3: Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com.