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Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics,

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Speaker 1: where we discussed the top political headlines with some of

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Speaker 1: today's best minds, and eighty nine year old Senator Dianne

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Speaker 1: Feinstein has refused to give a timeline for her return

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Speaker 1: to Congress.

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Speaker 2: We have such a great show today.

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Speaker 1: Axios's Felix Salmon tells us about his new book, The

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Speaker 1: Phoenix Economy, Work Life and Money in the New Not Normal.

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Speaker 1: Then we'll talk to former political director of the AFL

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Speaker 1: CIO Mike pod Horzer about America's Union movement. But first

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Speaker 1: we have the former Vermont governor and presidential candidate and

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Speaker 1: close personal friend.

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Speaker 2: Howard Dean.

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Speaker 1: Welcome back to Fast Politics, Howard Dean.

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Speaker 3: Thank you very much for having me.

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Speaker 2: In the Bucolic wiles of Vermont.

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Speaker 3: Yes, and there beautiful and bu college.

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Speaker 2: Yes, and very blue state, very blue state.

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Speaker 4: Well, we consider blue insane to be similar adjectives.

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Speaker 2: Right, So tell me what I mean.

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Speaker 1: You're a doctor, so I feel like you also can

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Speaker 1: speak to what is happening right now. I feel like

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Speaker 1: I mean, part of what's happening right now with the

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Speaker 1: Republican Party is a rejection of science of medicine.

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Speaker 3: Well, that's true, but this is a pattern that is

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Speaker 3: not rare in human history. I mean, what you're seeing

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Speaker 3: is a repeat of what has happened over centuries, where

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Speaker 3: people deny the truth, put out propaganda, and base their

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Speaker 3: campaigns based on hate and anger. Right and the Republican Party.

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Speaker 4: Not all Republicans are like this, but more and more

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Speaker 4: are like it because they lack the courage to stand

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Speaker 4: up for decency.

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Speaker 3: It's fascinating to me.

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Speaker 4: I'm watching Asa Hutchinson run, who's coinsistainly not going to

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Speaker 4: get anywhere is near and I disagree with his politics,

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Speaker 4: but he's make good points like Trump is crazy and

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Speaker 4: shouldn't be the nominee and so forth and so on.

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Speaker 4: But most of the Republicans don't have any backbone, and

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Speaker 4: they're either consumed by hate and anger or they are

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Speaker 4: more than willing to play those emotions in the electorate.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I want to ask you about Asa Hutchinson because

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Speaker 1: I was reading about him this morning in playbook, And

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Speaker 1: this is a guy. He's very conservative, you're not going

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Speaker 1: to confuse him with the Democrat.

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Speaker 2: But he's also like not a complete lunatic, and.

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Speaker 1: He's much more of like a Republican circa two thousand,

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Speaker 1: even twenty teen, a Republican pre Trump.

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Speaker 4: Well, yeah, I mean, let's not get too nice about

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Speaker 4: Asa Hutchinson. I mean, if this were twenty five years ago,

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Speaker 4: he'd be on the right edge of his party, right exactly,

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Speaker 4: but he wouldn't be consumed by lunacy. He would just be,

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Speaker 4: as you just pointed out, a conservative. Now his party

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Speaker 4: has become dominated by crackpots, including some of the people

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Speaker 4: on the Supreme Court apparently, And so Hutchinson seems reasonable.

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Speaker 4: Ronald Reagan is more liberal than every single person running

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Speaker 4: for president on the Republican side.

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Speaker 3: How do you like those apples?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, no, no, I know.

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Speaker 1: I mean it just seems to be there on a

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Speaker 1: sort of collision course with what is the worst Well.

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Speaker 4: Either that, Molly or the country is going to be

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Speaker 4: on a collision course with whether we exist or not

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Speaker 4: in another fifteen twenty years. And the fascinating thing about

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Speaker 4: this is McCarthy is over in Israel, and Israel is

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Speaker 4: having exactly the same problem, exactly.

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Speaker 1: The same I mean, but with Israel, like our problem

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Speaker 1: in America, is that one party is saying a normal

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Speaker 1: and one party has completely lost its mind.

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Speaker 4: Well that's what's going on over there too, except what

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Speaker 4: you have there is the leader who has no scruples

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Speaker 4: whatsoever and never has.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: So Trump, Yeah, Well no, Nathan Yaho is much.

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Speaker 2: Smarter than Trump, right, obviously.

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Speaker 4: Nathan yah who knows exactly what he's doing. But he's

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Speaker 4: aligned himself with people who are the party who hated

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Speaker 4: anger over there, which is the far right. And they

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Speaker 4: make no bones about hating the Palestinians and wanting them

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Speaker 4: to get rid of them.

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Speaker 3: And they've said so yeah, and the same thing is

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Speaker 3: really going on here.

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Speaker 4: They no bones about getting rid of gay people, putting

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Speaker 4: women in the back of the line, black people back

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Speaker 4: in the fields.

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Speaker 3: It's just shocking to me.

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Speaker 1: But I want to ask you because, like I think

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Speaker 1: about so, for example, with abortion, right, like this is

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Speaker 1: wildly unpopular. Right, Republicans on abortion wildly unpopular. If anything,

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Speaker 1: overturning Row has made the American people for the first

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Speaker 1: time really see that abortion is actually healthcare. So then

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Speaker 1: you have Ron DeSantis and he decides to ban abortion, Like,

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Speaker 1: I mean, doesn't it seem as if these Republicans just

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Speaker 1: can't pick a popular position.

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Speaker 4: The Santas is a very interesting guy. I don't know

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Speaker 4: him personally, and I hope to die in that condition.

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Speaker 4: But he's not a very good candidate, and everybody's made

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Speaker 4: this big fuss about him. In person, he's kind of

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Speaker 4: whiny and do it my way or the highway. And

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Speaker 4: he has this incredibly compliant legislature in Florida, which is

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Speaker 4: as far as I can guessquin disaster, and they do

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Speaker 4: everything he wants.

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Speaker 3: It is stunning to me.

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Speaker 4: But I actually think Trump is going to beat the

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Speaker 4: daylights out of Desantus. And I think I didn't think

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Speaker 4: this until about two weeks ago. There's a very very

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Speaker 4: good article in Slate by a guy who's I can't

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Speaker 4: remember what his name is, but very good. Slate's a

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Speaker 4: great publication, and it basically said Desantas took on the

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Speaker 4: wrong people and gave a whole history about how Disney

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Speaker 4: got where they are and how DeSantis is just making

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Speaker 4: one mistake after another.

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Speaker 3: It's fascinating to see.

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Speaker 4: It's fascinating to watch the Trump mini means destroy themselves

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Speaker 4: because they don't know what they're doing. And I mean,

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Speaker 4: for all Trump's craziness, he does have an ingrained sense

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Speaker 4: of how to play grievance politics right and the other

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Speaker 4: ones don't have it because Trump grew up with a

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Speaker 4: tyrant for a father and was the survivor and Desanta's

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Speaker 4: is just playing a game here, right, But.

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Speaker 1: I mean also fundamentally, Trump without the charisma is not a.

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Speaker 3: Winner, probably not. Probably not.

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Speaker 1: They're involved in the policies which are nothing. I mean,

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Speaker 1: why Trump continues to win the Republican nomination is and

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Speaker 1: will again likely is because he's scarismatic. What's the reason

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Speaker 1: why people win primaries?

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Speaker 4: Well, I also think he knows how to play Grievan's politics,

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Speaker 4: and none of the others really do, right, I mean,

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Speaker 4: Desantas turns out to be kind of whiny and high

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Speaker 4: pitched voice and all this kind of stuff. Trump is

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Speaker 4: somebody who was born with Grievoy's politics and he learned

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Speaker 4: it from his father. And don't forget, Trump's grandfather was

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Speaker 4: deported by the United States for not serving in the army,

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Speaker 4: and then the Germans wouldn't take him back and made

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Speaker 4: him come back here, much to our dismay.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, Trump is a different phenomenon.

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Speaker 4: He plays to I think, the psychological illnesses of people

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Speaker 4: who are angry and feel left behind, and he does

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Speaker 4: it incredibly well, because he's sort of convinced himself he's

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Speaker 4: one of those too. The Santas is just playing a

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Speaker 4: game and he's not that good at it. And that's

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Speaker 4: become evident over the last few weeks. You've got to

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Speaker 4: read this article in Slate. It is just a masterpiece

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Speaker 4: of going back to find out. And this guy's not

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Speaker 4: pro Disney, and he's saying, look what Disney got away

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Speaker 4: with all this stuff? But now it's basically desantus versus

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Speaker 4: whether you're a good grandparent or a parent.

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Speaker 2: Right, the happiest place on earth.

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Speaker 3: Right exactly.

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Speaker 4: So you're encouraging these parents and grandparents to kick their

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Speaker 4: kids to the side so you could be president.

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Speaker 3: I don't think that's a winning proposal.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: No, he's really bad at this. I mean, so, let

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Speaker 1: me ask you about the debt ceiling we have. This

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Speaker 1: debt ceiling is on the horizon. June one was the

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Speaker 1: Jenny Yellen said June one. It seems like there's ways

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Speaker 1: to get around it. I mean, what's your sense on

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Speaker 1: how this should go down? I mean, it does seem like,

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Speaker 1: in my mind, Republicans want to crash the United States

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Speaker 1: economy and like they were just good job numbers, like

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Speaker 1: it feels like that's the only goal.

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Speaker 2: But I mean, what do you.

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Speaker 4: Think I actually, I mean, sensible Republicans don't want to

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Speaker 4: crash the United States economy. And I think most of

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Speaker 4: the people who write checks to the Republicans don't want

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Speaker 4: to crass the United States economy.

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Speaker 3: Here's what I think the problem is.

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Speaker 4: I think the problem is that McCarthy is incredibly weak

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Speaker 4: and probably incapable speaker, and he.

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Speaker 3: Has sold his soul to the far right who really

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Speaker 3: don't care about the United States economy. They just care

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Speaker 3: about themselves.

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Speaker 4: And again, their platform is hate and anger and that's

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Speaker 4: about it. So there are cuts which are essentially undo

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Speaker 4: the United States of America are just ridiculous, and they're

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Speaker 4: not going to happen. The cuts of Biden's centerpiece legislation.

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Speaker 4: That's not going to happen, my fear. And you can

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Speaker 4: say what you want about Bayner and Paul Ryan, who

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Speaker 4: got basically chased out by their own caucus, but they

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Speaker 4: did have a sense of patriotism. I mean, again, I

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Speaker 4: wouldn't vote for them, but that's on ideological grounds. They

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Speaker 4: did understand what was going on and what their duty

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Speaker 4: to the country was. McCarthy doesn't care about any of that.

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Speaker 4: McCarthy just cares about getting elected. But he's a very

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Speaker 4: weak person who's pushed around. I mean, if you suddenly

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Speaker 4: ally yourself with Marjorie Taylor Green, there's something probably not

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Speaker 4: quite there and you're above your shoulders.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he's stupid, right.

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Speaker 3: Well, I wasn't going to avoid that word.

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Speaker 2: But not smart, it's the other Yes.

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Speaker 4: Yes, he lacks foresight. So here's what the problem is.

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Speaker 4: The problem is that McCarthy probably is incapable of not

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Speaker 4: driving the truck off the cliff. He doesn't know what

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Speaker 4: to do, and his instinct will be whatever it takes

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Speaker 4: to keep my votes, which means driving the.

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Speaker 3: Truck off the cliff. And it's a big cliff.

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Speaker 4: And I think we may go over the cliff, but

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Speaker 4: only by a few days. But it'll scare the hell

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Speaker 4: out of the markets. And I think that will be

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Speaker 4: enough to give us the ten or fifteen or twenty

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Speaker 4: Republicans in the Congress that don't have a spine but

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Speaker 4: do have a conscience and they'll do the right thing.

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Speaker 4: And hopefully Hakeem Jefferies, who I don't know well, will

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Speaker 4: make it easy for the moderate Republicans who still have

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Speaker 4: a conscience, which again is a very small percentage of

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Speaker 4: the caucus but does exist, and are also look in

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Speaker 4: districts that if they continue this kind of stuff, they're

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Speaker 4: going to lose. There's still a number of people in

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Speaker 4: Congress Republicans who won in Biden districts. So I think

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Speaker 4: that there's a way out. But I don't have much faith,

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Speaker 4: not so much in McCarthy's leadership, which I think is

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Speaker 4: non existent, But what I don't have much faith in

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Speaker 4: is his ability to actually get anything done, because I

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Speaker 4: think he has no spine whatsoever.

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Speaker 2: Right well, and also he's just not very good at

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Speaker 2: those right. I mean, he had to do all of

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Speaker 2: these votes to win the speakership. He couldn't get people

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Speaker 2: voting for him.

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Speaker 1: And also the other thing is we just still don't

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Speaker 1: really know what he's promised the far right.

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Speaker 3: No, well, we did make a pretty good guess.

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Speaker 4: I mean, the package he put together is a joke

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Speaker 4: because it's not McConnell says he's going to be on

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Speaker 4: the sidelines. I think it's going to be really interesting

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Speaker 4: to see McConnell not be on the sidelines, because if

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Speaker 4: he's on the sidelines and lets the cliff.

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Speaker 3: Everything go over the cliff.

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Speaker 4: That impacts greatly his ability to take back the Senate,

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Speaker 4: which is all he really cares about it, right.

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Speaker 1: I mean, he's had a bit of like leopard eating

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Speaker 1: face recently.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not sure what that means.

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Speaker 4: I've seen a lot of that, but I know that expression,

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Speaker 4: but I don't know what it means.

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Speaker 1: It means that when the Trumpers turn on you, oh,

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Speaker 1: they won't eat my face. Sooner or later the leopard

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Speaker 1: face eating party eats everyone's face.

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Speaker 3: Well whatever, Yes.

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Speaker 1: So you think that it sort of eventually they can

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Speaker 1: just get it together and they push. But then if

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Speaker 1: that happens and these models.

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Speaker 3: I don't say that I'll go that far.

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Speaker 4: I think Biden may have to undergo something like the

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Speaker 4: trillion dollar coin or invoking the fourteenth Amendment, which says

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Speaker 4: that the good faith in credit the United States will

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Speaker 4: never be undermined. But then it goes to a partisan,

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Speaker 4: corrupt the organization called the Supreme Court, and who knows

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Speaker 4: what they'll do.

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Speaker 3: This could end up. I mean, at some point people.

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Speaker 4: Are going to start ignoring the Supreme Court, and we're

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Speaker 4: not that far from it, and you're certainly going to

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Speaker 4: ignore the Supreme Court if the alternative is to plunge

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Speaker 4: the economy of the entire world into a blood bath,

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Speaker 4: and which is what's going to happen in the United States,

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Speaker 4: really does default.

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Speaker 3: So I suspect the United States might.

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Speaker 4: Default for two days if there's already a deal, and

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Speaker 4: if they do, that'll be the end of McCarthy's speakership.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I mean, do you think that there's a world in

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Speaker 1: which some Republicans go over to I mean that seems unlikely, right.

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Speaker 4: No, I think it's likely because let's just say, for

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Speaker 4: the sake of argument, and who knows what the right

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Speaker 4: number really is, Let's say fourteen Republicans from Biden leaning

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Speaker 4: districts who are already terrified about abortion are going to

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Speaker 4: see people are going to lose their jobs wholesale, including

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Speaker 4: a lot of Republican voters in small towns. I mean,

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Speaker 4: the full faith credit of the United States is going

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Speaker 4: to collapse when this happens. So I think there are

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Speaker 4: Republicans are going to go to Hakeem Jefferies and say, look,

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Speaker 4: let's just come to a moderate thing and we'll make

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Speaker 4: a deal here after it collapses and hopefully Hakim Jeffries

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Speaker 4: is not going to say, well, fine, but that means

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Speaker 4: we have to have single payer healthcare system and you

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Speaker 4: have to vote for it.

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Speaker 3: But he's pretty experienced.

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Speaker 2: I mean, he seems smart, right, smart.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, he seems very capable, but we haven't seen him

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Speaker 4: in real action yet.

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Speaker 2: Right, It's true, So should die five resign?

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Speaker 4: Yes, what she's doing is just selfish. Yeah, it's just

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Speaker 4: plain selfish. What she's doing is bad for the country.

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Speaker 4: She should resign unless she's going back next week. And

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Speaker 4: I don't think that anybody thinks that's true. Right, Frankly,

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Speaker 4: I hate to say this because she's more than paid

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Speaker 4: her dues, but she shouldn't be there.

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Speaker 3: Grassley shouldn't be there.

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Speaker 4: There a whole lot of people in the Senate who

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Speaker 4: are not playing with a full deck, and they haven't

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Speaker 4: been for quite some time.

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Speaker 1: But at least and if you want, I mean, I

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Speaker 1: feel like, if you're I don't know, with her, it's

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Speaker 1: like she's not even there so they can't pass the

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Speaker 1: I mean, yeah.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, But there's a couple of things I've agreed with

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Speaker 4: what used to be a conservative position, I now truly

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Speaker 4: believe that we ought to have three term limits in

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Speaker 4: the Senate, and we ought to have five or six

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Speaker 4: term limits in the House, and I believe the Supreme

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Speaker 4: Court ought to be term limited. I mean, this is

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Speaker 4: not just the Republican Party of crazy people taking over

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Speaker 4: the Republican Party. The political culture has become it's all

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Speaker 4: about us, and it's not about the public who we serve.

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Speaker 4: And up here in Vermont we have two year terms,

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Speaker 4: which I strongly support because if I screw up as governor,

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Speaker 4: everybody has a shot at me in two years. And

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Speaker 4: the public doesn't like it because they don't like the ads.

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Speaker 3: Well, guess what.

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Speaker 4: There's a price to living in a democracy, and that

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Speaker 4: is you have to listen to crappy ads once in

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Speaker 4: a while.

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Speaker 2: Is that really why they don't like it.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, they don't like all the ads in the campaigns.

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Speaker 4: And the money you would, of course up here, is

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Speaker 4: not very much. But when the people made up the

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Speaker 4: constitutions of these states and the federal government, nobody envisioned

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Speaker 4: legislators being full time professional legislators. They were supposed to

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Speaker 4: be people who put down their plow for six months

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Speaker 4: or four months and came and served and then went

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Speaker 4: home and made a real living, and if people made

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Speaker 4: a living that was outside the crazy world of politics

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Speaker 4: that really is unrelated to most Americans experience, then they

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Speaker 4: might be more sensible about what they were doing.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so I want to ask you, now, I mean,

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Speaker 1: I think that's pretty reasonable. With this Supreme Court, it's

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Speaker 1: clearly very partisan, very crazy.

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Speaker 2: You've got but.

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Speaker 4: Social corrupt, that's the worst thing. It's been partisans since

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Speaker 4: two thousand. There was a really interesting article about Sandrade

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Speaker 4: O'Connor's papers coming out that showed that all the time

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Speaker 4: she and Ranquist were conniving to make sure that the

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Speaker 4: vote count was stopped wasn't continued in Florida.

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Speaker 3: That's not their job.

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Speaker 4: So the requist was obviously a terrible chief justice. No

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Speaker 4: chief justice of either party should decide who the President

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Speaker 4: of the United States is on a five to four

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Speaker 4: partisan vote with the Republicans in one side of the

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Speaker 4: Democrats of another. There's no leadership there at all. So

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Speaker 4: that was really the beginning of the undoing of the

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Speaker 4: Supreme Court, which is now after twenty three years, obviously

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Speaker 4: just rotten.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so it is rotten. So, I mean, what should

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Speaker 1: Biden be doing on the Supreme Court? Because it seems like.

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Speaker 1: I mean, obviously he would have to win back the House,

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Speaker 1: but that's not impossible.

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Speaker 2: I mean, what do you think should happen there?

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Speaker 4: I tell you what I think should happen, and a

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Speaker 4: lot of lawyers disagree with me.

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Speaker 3: And I'm not a lawyer, so I don't pretend expertise.

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Speaker 2: You're a doctor, So.

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Speaker 4: That doesn't always help you when you're trying to figure

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Speaker 4: out what the law does.

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Speaker 3: So, first of all, you're obviously not going to get

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Speaker 3: a constitutional amendment. The country's much too polarized, and it's

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Speaker 3: a very good thing to do.

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Speaker 4: They won't even vote for equal women's rights, so what

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Speaker 4: makes you think they're going to vote to change the court.

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Speaker 3: So what can you do without a constitutional amendment?

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Speaker 4: Well, the Constitution of the United States says that basically

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Speaker 4: that appointments to the federal bench are for life, and

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Speaker 4: that was put in for a good reason. It was

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Speaker 4: intended so that the courts will be removed from the

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Speaker 4: daily fights about political fights, and it served us well

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Speaker 4: for quite a while, but now it's become partisan. And

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Speaker 4: of course lately the corruption has been unveiled, not just

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Speaker 4: with Justice Thomas, but Gorsich. John Roberts's wife getting ten

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Speaker 4: million dollars by being a recruiter for legal firms or

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Speaker 4: saying business in front of the court. It means it's

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Speaker 4: a corrupt mess. So the Constitution says that you cannot

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Speaker 4: remove somebody without impeachment process, which we're obviously not going

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Speaker 4: to go through with this Congress. And you can't remove

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Speaker 4: people from the federal bench once you've appointed them. It

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Speaker 4: does not say that they are entitled to a life

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Speaker 4: term on the Supreme Court. So you could rotate them

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Speaker 4: off the Supreme Court onto a circuit court.

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Speaker 3: And they would still be on the federal bench.

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Speaker 4: And so I think there is room to create by

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Speaker 4: statue a law that says you get eighteen years on

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Speaker 4: the Supreme Court and you get staggered terms. You stop

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Speaker 4: all this nonsense about confirmation dancing around and not what

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Speaker 4: McConnell did, the two steps to prevent Obama from naming

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Speaker 4: a justice and then naming another justice with.

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Speaker 3: Six days to go. This kind of stuff, no.

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Speaker 4: Wonder people think the court is a disaster. So you

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Speaker 4: can give them an eighteen year term as long as

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Speaker 4: you don't take them off the bench when their term

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Speaker 4: is over. And then you ought to be able to

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Speaker 4: set up a fixed schedule so people can make appointments

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Speaker 4: to the bench. I also don't believe I believe that

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Speaker 4: the structure of bench. Obviously, the Federalist Society has blown

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Speaker 4: up the structure of how you do this.

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Speaker 3: So what a surprise.

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Speaker 4: Vermont actually has a great system where I don't get

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Speaker 4: to pick anybody I want. There's a non partisan commission

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Speaker 4: made up of the chair of both houses, digitiary committees, chairman,

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Speaker 4: and the Bar Association and who knows what, and they

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Speaker 4: interview and present me with, say, with five candidates. I

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Speaker 4: can reject all five, and I had to do that

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Speaker 4: once because they were playing games and trying to get

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Speaker 4: their personal on. But generally speaking, that's who I have

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Speaker 4: to choose from.

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Speaker 3: So you get rid of.

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Speaker 4: All this Leonard Leo federalist dark money crap, and you

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Speaker 4: take the politics out of the Supreme Court and people

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Speaker 4: actually respect the court when you do that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that seems like it makes a lot

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Speaker 1: of sense. Howard Dan, thank you so much for joining us.

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Speaker 3: It's my great pleasure.

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Speaker 2: As always, it's always such a delight to have you.

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Speaker 4: Well, may we all as a country do better because

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Speaker 4: we're in pretty bad shape right now.

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Speaker 2: I mean we can't do worse, right, Oh, yes we can.

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Speaker 1: Felix Salmon is the chief financial correspondent at Axios and

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Speaker 1: the author of The Phoenix Economy, Work Life.

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Speaker 2: And Money in the New Not Normal.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fast Politics, Felix Salmon.

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Speaker 5: I'm super happy to be here. This is very exciting.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we're nothing if not exciting over here.

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Speaker 1: So let me ask you have a piece that was

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Speaker 1: published ten hours ago. I love this specificity in which

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Speaker 1: we can deal with such things about the current banking crisis,

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Speaker 1: and the title is Welcome to the New Not Normal.

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Speaker 2: Explain to us what is happening with these banks?

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Speaker 5: Okay, So the banks are suffering from something very unexpected.

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Speaker 5: And this is the big thesis of my book is

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Speaker 5: that we have to expect the unexpected. We're in this

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Speaker 5: new world to call the new not Normal, where unexpected

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Speaker 5: things five impossible things happened before breakfast, the Red Queen

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Speaker 5: would put it. And this is one of those things. Right.

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Speaker 5: This is not a banking crisis where the banks made

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Speaker 5: bad loans and then they go bust. All of the

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Speaker 5: loans are fine. The First Republics loans were fine. Silicon

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Speaker 5: Valley banks, loans were fine. What the real problem was

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Speaker 5: was that they had too much money. That we had

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Speaker 5: all of this money get created and spent over the

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Speaker 5: course of the pandemic for very good fiscal reasons, and

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Speaker 5: that money found its way into these bank accounts in California.

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Speaker 5: And then when the banks found themselves sitting on all

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Speaker 5: this money, they had to do something with it.

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Speaker 2: Well, they didn't have to, but they wanted to.

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Speaker 5: Well, they had to, Like, if you're a bank and

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Speaker 5: someone deposits money.

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Speaker 3: With you, you.

444
00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:44,080
Speaker 5: Have that money, you have to put it somewhere, right

445
00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:46,960
Speaker 5: or First Republic Bank or even Signature bank for that matter.

446
00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:49,679
Speaker 5: All of these banks that failed had seen very very

447
00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:52,320
Speaker 5: large increases in their deposits and they were faces this question,

448
00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:56,360
Speaker 5: what do we do with all of this money? And

449
00:21:56,880 --> 00:21:59,919
Speaker 5: they basically did the wrong thing with all of that money.

450
00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:01,720
Speaker 5: They had to do something with it. What they did

451
00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:05,960
Speaker 5: was the wrong thing. And when that money then flowed out,

452
00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:08,480
Speaker 5: and we can talk about the reasons why it flowed out,

453
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:11,439
Speaker 5: which are not the same from banked bank. The reasons

454
00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:13,080
Speaker 5: for the visual public are not the same as the

455
00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:15,960
Speaker 5: reasons of Silicon Value bank. But when that money flowed out,

456
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:20,919
Speaker 5: then that was existentially damaging for them, and they wound

457
00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:24,080
Speaker 5: up having to close down and cost the insurance five

458
00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:26,120
Speaker 5: billions of dollars in The shareholders would get wiped out,

459
00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:28,280
Speaker 5: and the executives would get fired and all of this

460
00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:32,760
Speaker 5: kind of stuff. Right, So what we have is weirdly

461
00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:37,520
Speaker 5: a banking crisis caused by too much money in a

462
00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:41,400
Speaker 5: weird sense, these huge money flows that we haven't really

463
00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:44,080
Speaker 5: seen before in the banking sector. And this is an

464
00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:46,879
Speaker 5: example of this new not normal that I'm talking about,

465
00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:51,240
Speaker 5: which is just weird things happening, and they're happening all

466
00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:54,359
Speaker 5: over the place, and they're happening more frequently, and they

467
00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:56,720
Speaker 5: can be very profound and very important.

468
00:22:57,040 --> 00:22:58,840
Speaker 2: So let's talk about that.

469
00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:02,199
Speaker 1: So the most recent bank explained to us what just

470
00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:06,000
Speaker 1: recently happened with the bank where they too were bought

471
00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:07,439
Speaker 1: at the last minute.

472
00:23:08,400 --> 00:23:10,480
Speaker 5: So the most recent bank to fail was called First

473
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:15,639
Speaker 5: Republic Bank, and that was another bank failure. The shareholders

474
00:23:15,640 --> 00:23:18,440
Speaker 5: were wiped out, the bondholders were wiped out, even the

475
00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:22,680
Speaker 5: insurance fund took a thirteen billion dollar loss. And the

476
00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:25,720
Speaker 5: operations of that bank, let's say, were taken over by

477
00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:30,880
Speaker 5: JP Morgan Chase. And that was a standard bank failure playbook.

478
00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:34,560
Speaker 5: And it was similar to what happened with Silicon Valley

479
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:38,760
Speaker 5: Bank in that it was ultimately caused by a whole

480
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:42,879
Speaker 5: bunch of deposits leaving the bank. Where the difference arises

481
00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:46,919
Speaker 5: is that it wasn't a fearful bank run like we

482
00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:48,120
Speaker 5: saw with Silicon Valley Bank.

483
00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:51,600
Speaker 1: Right, So it wasn't David Zachs on Twitter telling people

484
00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:53,680
Speaker 1: to get all their money out correct.

485
00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:54,960
Speaker 2: Yes, that I.

486
00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:57,639
Speaker 1: By the way, I really enjoyed tech bros on Twitter

487
00:23:57,760 --> 00:23:58,760
Speaker 1: causing bank runs.

488
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:00,120
Speaker 2: That's one of my favorite.

489
00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:03,560
Speaker 5: Right. So this wasn't a bank run in that sense. Right.

490
00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:06,200
Speaker 5: This wasn't people saying I need to get my money

491
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:08,760
Speaker 5: out of the bank otherwise I'm going to lose it,

492
00:24:08,800 --> 00:24:12,520
Speaker 5: and it's like first to the exits. This was more

493
00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:15,679
Speaker 5: of what I call a greedy bank run. That people

494
00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:19,639
Speaker 5: had a bunch of money at First Republic, and First

495
00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:23,680
Speaker 5: Republic's business model was always weirdly a kind of rich

496
00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:27,600
Speaker 5: people don't care that much about money business model. The

497
00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:29,600
Speaker 5: rich people would just keep a whole bunch of money

498
00:24:29,640 --> 00:24:32,080
Speaker 5: at First Republic and it wouldn't be a lot of

499
00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:34,840
Speaker 5: interest on those checking accounts because you don't expect to

500
00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:38,280
Speaker 5: get interest on your checking account, you get amazing service.

501
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:41,000
Speaker 5: And so people would just love the amazing service, and

502
00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:43,240
Speaker 5: they'd have loyalty to their personal banker, and they would

503
00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:45,840
Speaker 5: stay at the bank. And then they realized, I have,

504
00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:50,160
Speaker 5: say a million dollars on deposit at First Republic, and

505
00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 5: instead of missing out on a quarter of a percent

506
00:24:54,440 --> 00:24:56,920
Speaker 5: interest that I could be getting on that money if

507
00:24:56,920 --> 00:24:59,320
Speaker 5: I had a checking account somewhere else, I'm now missing

508
00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:01,840
Speaker 5: out on like or five percent interest that I could

509
00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:04,639
Speaker 5: be getting if I had it in treasury bills or

510
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:09,680
Speaker 5: other savings accounts. And suddenly, like, instead of losing out

511
00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:11,800
Speaker 5: on a couple thousand dollars a year, you're losing out

512
00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:14,920
Speaker 5: on fifty thousand dollars a year. And that's even if

513
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:17,320
Speaker 5: you're a millionaire. Fifty thousand dollars a year seems like

514
00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:20,959
Speaker 5: real money. And so people just started moving their money

515
00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:24,359
Speaker 5: out to places which were a much more lucrative and

516
00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:29,200
Speaker 5: paid them real interest and be safer because obviously, over

517
00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:32,679
Speaker 5: two hundred and fifty thousand dollars, although everyone kind of

518
00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:35,320
Speaker 5: knew that the money was safe, you didn't know, no,

519
00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:38,399
Speaker 5: I wasn't absolutely guaranteed by the government, and so you're like,

520
00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:41,600
Speaker 5: given the choice between something that isn't rock solid safe

521
00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:45,400
Speaker 5: and is paying zero percent versus something that is rock

522
00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:48,080
Speaker 5: solace safe and is paying like four and a half percent,

523
00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:51,119
Speaker 5: I'll take the latter. And so the money just bled

524
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:54,200
Speaker 5: out over the course of the second half of March mainly,

525
00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:58,719
Speaker 5: and then First Republic was in a real pickle because

526
00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:02,440
Speaker 5: it had made all of these loans with that money,

527
00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:04,600
Speaker 5: and those borrowers didn't need to pay the money back.

528
00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:06,000
Speaker 5: So where are they going to find the money?

529
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:10,560
Speaker 1: So explain to me what the book is about, sort

530
00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:12,240
Speaker 1: of this new economy.

531
00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:14,960
Speaker 5: So, yeah, the book is I call it the Phoenix Economy.

532
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:18,640
Speaker 5: That basically what happened in March twenty twenty was that

533
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:24,240
Speaker 5: the entire economy just ground to a hole. Everything stopped.

534
00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:26,320
Speaker 5: You remember this. We all remember it, although we don't

535
00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:29,600
Speaker 5: remember it that vividly because it feels like almost like

536
00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:32,880
Speaker 5: this weird dream fugue state that we went to. I mean,

537
00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:35,639
Speaker 5: we were here in New York, so we remember the sirens.

538
00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:38,879
Speaker 5: We remember, And what happened was a huge number of

539
00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:44,040
Speaker 5: things just broke. Time broke, like our conception of time

540
00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:48,600
Speaker 5: just broke. The global supply chains broke. You couldn't get

541
00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:53,760
Speaker 5: toilet paper or baby formula. Our conception that like we

542
00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:58,120
Speaker 5: can all agree on scientific facts broke because we didn't

543
00:26:58,119 --> 00:27:00,679
Speaker 5: actually know what the scientific facts were. We entered this

544
00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:03,199
Speaker 5: realm of incredible uncertainty where we didn't really know what

545
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:06,040
Speaker 5: the virus was or how it worked, and people started

546
00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:09,480
Speaker 5: leaching their groceries and no one really knew anything, and

547
00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:13,240
Speaker 5: it was very uncomfortable because we've been in this Google

548
00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:15,239
Speaker 5: world where anything you wanted to know, you could just

549
00:27:15,280 --> 00:27:16,840
Speaker 5: look it up and it would be there. And now

550
00:27:17,040 --> 00:27:19,400
Speaker 5: we were in a world where facts changed and scientific

551
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:23,000
Speaker 5: consensus changed, and that was really weird, and people found

552
00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:25,240
Speaker 5: it difficult to keep up with that. So everything broke

553
00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:29,520
Speaker 5: and we wound up having to recreate a new economy

554
00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:34,639
Speaker 5: that was profoundly different and that had been changed by

555
00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:37,159
Speaker 5: the experience of the pandemic and also a couple of

556
00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:41,680
Speaker 5: years later, the experience of a major war in Europe,

557
00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:47,000
Speaker 5: which was almost as traumatic, and so between those two things,

558
00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:50,399
Speaker 5: what we've created is a very different world. Has changed

559
00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:52,639
Speaker 5: the way we live, it's changed the way we think,

560
00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:58,680
Speaker 5: and it has massively increased the probability of unexpected events

561
00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:01,640
Speaker 5: and the importance of being sort of nimble rather than

562
00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:03,080
Speaker 5: sticking to your guns.

563
00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:07,080
Speaker 2: So give me one way in which that's happened.

564
00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:12,919
Speaker 5: So think about the way the commercial real estate, like

565
00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:17,560
Speaker 5: offices are half empty and office buildings are plunging in

566
00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:22,280
Speaker 5: value at at the same time as residential real estate

567
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:24,960
Speaker 5: is not right. We've got these very high mortgage rates,

568
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:27,880
Speaker 5: but housebreakers aren't coming down very much. Houses are extremely

569
00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:31,040
Speaker 5: unaffordable right now. And the reason for that is basically

570
00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:37,679
Speaker 5: that we've had this massive shift of workspace from offices

571
00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:41,480
Speaker 5: into homes that all of us working from our homes now,

572
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:43,880
Speaker 5: not necessarily all of the time, but a lot of

573
00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:45,920
Speaker 5: us are working from our homes some of the time.

574
00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:51,600
Speaker 5: And that has increased demand for residential square footage by

575
00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:56,000
Speaker 5: a substantial amount. And so even if you've got these

576
00:28:56,120 --> 00:29:00,040
Speaker 5: sort of right related headwinds like high mortgage rates, a

577
00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:02,600
Speaker 5: sheer demand for real estate. For residential real estate has

578
00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:04,800
Speaker 5: gone up. The number of square feet that any given

579
00:29:04,840 --> 00:29:07,840
Speaker 5: person is going to want has gone up. In fact,

580
00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:10,920
Speaker 5: what they want is a room with a door and

581
00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:13,320
Speaker 5: a window that they can use to work in and

582
00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:16,400
Speaker 5: be kind of on their own and unmolested. And that's

583
00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:18,840
Speaker 5: called the bedroom. And you know in New York how

584
00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:21,320
Speaker 5: much it costs to upgrade from like a two bedroom

585
00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:22,800
Speaker 5: to a three bedroom or one bedroom to a two

586
00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:25,040
Speaker 5: bedroom that could be half a million dollars or more

587
00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:30,160
Speaker 5: right there. And so the demand for bedrooms has gone up,

588
00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:33,400
Speaker 5: and we just don't have enough bedrooms to go around,

589
00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:36,800
Speaker 5: and that's created this sort of supply and demanding balance

590
00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:39,120
Speaker 5: which we're seeing across the real estate market and is

591
00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:40,640
Speaker 5: not going to go away anytime soon.

592
00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:43,680
Speaker 1: So one of the things that like a hot topic

593
00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:45,600
Speaker 1: of debate is are we in recession?

594
00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:51,320
Speaker 5: So one of the most fascinating data sets that I've

595
00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:54,680
Speaker 5: been following for the past couple of years is this

596
00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:58,040
Speaker 5: YUGA poll where they asked that exact question, are we

597
00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:01,680
Speaker 5: in a recession right now? And basically, if you go

598
00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:04,680
Speaker 5: back all the way to roughly mid twenty twenty one

599
00:30:04,680 --> 00:30:09,160
Speaker 5: when they started asking this question, the answer has been yes.

600
00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:13,280
Speaker 5: According to the public. The public has been consistently convinced

601
00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:16,520
Speaker 5: that we are in a recession for over two years

602
00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:19,280
Speaker 5: now or roughly two years now, and they've been wrong

603
00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:20,440
Speaker 5: every single time.

604
00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:21,720
Speaker 2: The public.

605
00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:25,720
Speaker 5: So yeah, the public is very pessimistic.

606
00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:29,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was good to say that. It's pretty stupid, yeah,

607
00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:30,320
Speaker 2: but so go on.

608
00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:33,640
Speaker 5: So, yeah, we definitely wear in a recession, very briefly

609
00:30:33,800 --> 00:30:36,440
Speaker 5: for maybe you call it six weeks in spring of

610
00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:42,120
Speaker 5: twenty twenty. Yeah, and then we bounced back aggressively. But again, like,

611
00:30:42,280 --> 00:30:44,320
Speaker 5: this is one of those areas where you have to

612
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:49,760
Speaker 5: realize how hard it is for normal people, for everyone

613
00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:53,640
Speaker 5: really to update their priors and change their minds. Right,

614
00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:58,560
Speaker 5: things got really, really bad in April of twenty twenty.

615
00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:02,160
Speaker 5: We had massive employment. Everyone lost their job. No one

616
00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:04,560
Speaker 5: knew where the next paycheck or rent check was going

617
00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:07,479
Speaker 5: to come from, and it just felt so terrible that

618
00:31:07,560 --> 00:31:12,000
Speaker 5: when things really bounced back super aggressively and fast and successfully,

619
00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:14,480
Speaker 5: it took a lot of people a lot of time

620
00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:16,760
Speaker 5: to realize that was happening. And some people like they

621
00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:18,720
Speaker 5: never realized that at all, and they were convinced that

622
00:31:18,760 --> 00:31:21,160
Speaker 5: this terrible economy that we had for six weeks was

623
00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:23,720
Speaker 5: ongoing for years. It really wasn't. They were convinced that

624
00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:26,120
Speaker 5: inequality was going up when it was going down. They

625
00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:30,040
Speaker 5: were convinced that like the rich were getting richer while

626
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:31,920
Speaker 5: the poor were getting poorer, and in fact it was

627
00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:34,280
Speaker 5: the other way round. The poor were getting richer faster

628
00:31:34,320 --> 00:31:34,960
Speaker 5: than the rich were.

629
00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:39,240
Speaker 2: Well, it's very sad, but it's good. It's a good

630
00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:40,200
Speaker 2: thing to happen.

631
00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:43,840
Speaker 5: Actually, I mean, we really did have reduced inequality in

632
00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:45,920
Speaker 5: this country, which is fantastic, right.

633
00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:49,080
Speaker 2: And then it ended, just like the child tax credit.

634
00:31:49,480 --> 00:31:51,640
Speaker 5: Well, I mean the child tax credit ended, but we

635
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:55,920
Speaker 5: still have in immensely low unemployment. We have a healthy

636
00:31:56,000 --> 00:31:58,840
Speaker 5: labor market. We have one point six job openings for

637
00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:01,840
Speaker 5: every job seeker. The main thing that people look at

638
00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:04,000
Speaker 5: when they look at the health of the economy as

639
00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:07,560
Speaker 5: the GDP growth, which is nice and positive. Like things

640
00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:11,680
Speaker 5: are basically taking along, right, and so yeah, like at

641
00:32:11,720 --> 00:32:14,440
Speaker 5: some point there will always be a recession. But do

642
00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:16,120
Speaker 5: I think we're in a recession right now?

643
00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:16,760
Speaker 6: No?

644
00:32:16,920 --> 00:32:19,479
Speaker 5: We have unemployment at three and a half percent, Like,

645
00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:21,640
Speaker 5: what kind of a recession is that? Like, we've never

646
00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 5: had a recession with unemployment there though, So let me

647
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 5: ask you another question.

648
00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:30,360
Speaker 1: We clearly have a very tight labor market. One of

649
00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:34,040
Speaker 1: the problems is that companies can't find people to work, right,

650
00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:40,880
Speaker 1: they can't. Now, instead of fixing our immigration crisis or

651
00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:44,959
Speaker 1: offering people more money, a lot of companies have started

652
00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:49,520
Speaker 1: employing children. And I mean, I'm sure you've read the statistics,

653
00:32:49,560 --> 00:32:51,840
Speaker 1: and I don't think we really have a clear picture

654
00:32:51,920 --> 00:32:54,520
Speaker 1: of what the scale is. And maybe small and maybe big,

655
00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:57,440
Speaker 1: it may be medium, but it's certainly happening in big

656
00:32:57,560 --> 00:33:01,160
Speaker 1: enough numbers so that we're seeing Republicans stay leaders changing

657
00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:04,440
Speaker 1: You saw in Arkansas. They're changing the law because they're

658
00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 1: worried about these companies getting fined, or maybe they're just

659
00:33:07,520 --> 00:33:11,360
Speaker 1: changing the law because they love having children working in factories.

660
00:33:11,400 --> 00:33:14,480
Speaker 1: But whatever it is, it's happening, and I don't think

661
00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:16,680
Speaker 1: any of us really know the scale of which, so

662
00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:19,760
Speaker 1: let me ask you, I mean, what do you think

663
00:33:19,800 --> 00:33:22,640
Speaker 1: about this? I mean, what is the moral responsibility here?

664
00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:25,240
Speaker 1: And remember, these are children who are able to come

665
00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:28,680
Speaker 1: across the border because it is slightly less hard for

666
00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:30,960
Speaker 1: children to come across the border, so they come across

667
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:33,240
Speaker 1: the border and then they go and work in roofing

668
00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:37,000
Speaker 1: factories or cheeto factories and they have no one and

669
00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:39,760
Speaker 1: they're really as young as ten, So just talk to

670
00:33:39,760 --> 00:33:40,320
Speaker 1: me about that.

671
00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:43,800
Speaker 5: So, yeah, there was recently headlines about two ten year

672
00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:46,360
Speaker 5: olds who were being put to work in the McDonald's

673
00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:49,160
Speaker 5: until like two o'clock in the morning, who are like

674
00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:52,160
Speaker 5: pretty obviously that the kids of the owner who was

675
00:33:52,280 --> 00:33:54,320
Speaker 5: like looking after the kids while they were at work

676
00:33:54,360 --> 00:33:56,720
Speaker 5: and like just putting into work. But yeah, it's a

677
00:33:56,800 --> 00:34:01,640
Speaker 5: really bad thing. And we have law that ban very

678
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:07,520
Speaker 5: specific forms of child labor for a reason, and we have,

679
00:34:07,960 --> 00:34:13,120
Speaker 5: as you rightly say, reluctance in many states to really

680
00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:17,120
Speaker 5: aggressively enforce those laws. We also have a sort of

681
00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:25,680
Speaker 5: boomerash nostalgia for the paper round in the teenage income

682
00:34:25,920 --> 00:34:30,319
Speaker 5: generating huck Finn type stories that people love to tell,

683
00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:34,799
Speaker 5: And there is this kind of feeling that the slacker

684
00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:40,760
Speaker 5: TikTok generation could benefit from having to do a proper

685
00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:44,000
Speaker 5: day's work now and again, and that is feeding into

686
00:34:44,120 --> 00:34:45,080
Speaker 5: it too, right.

687
00:34:45,160 --> 00:34:47,080
Speaker 2: But I think that that is a mentality.

688
00:34:47,200 --> 00:34:48,759
Speaker 1: I don't think that most of the kids who are

689
00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:51,239
Speaker 1: working in these jobs are those kids. I think most

690
00:34:51,239 --> 00:34:54,200
Speaker 1: of these kids are kids coming from South America who

691
00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:58,400
Speaker 1: are trying to feed their like starving families. It's hard

692
00:34:58,480 --> 00:35:00,680
Speaker 1: to know because we haven't seen reporting.

693
00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:04,120
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, there's not something where you can get statistics, right, Well,

694
00:35:04,160 --> 00:35:06,160
Speaker 5: I mean there is no agency. There is no government

695
00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:10,400
Speaker 5: agency like going around employers and saying how many immigrant

696
00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:13,279
Speaker 5: children are you employing? So we don't know, and we

697
00:35:13,360 --> 00:35:16,920
Speaker 5: don't know the degree to which that constitutes like a

698
00:35:16,960 --> 00:35:19,920
Speaker 5: majority or a minority of all child labor in the country.

699
00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:23,320
Speaker 5: We do know you're absolutely right on some level that

700
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:28,360
Speaker 5: there is just this insatiable demand for labor. What is

701
00:35:28,400 --> 00:35:31,560
Speaker 5: often called low skilled labor or unskilled labor been, in fact,

702
00:35:31,600 --> 00:35:34,840
Speaker 5: in a lot of situations quite skilled. And we have

703
00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:38,480
Speaker 5: seen wages go up. There was very very few Americans

704
00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:42,960
Speaker 5: are still earning the federal minimum wage. That fifteen dollars

705
00:35:43,040 --> 00:35:45,560
Speaker 5: is the new seven dollars in terms of how much

706
00:35:45,560 --> 00:35:48,560
Speaker 5: people get paid at the bottom end of the wage scale.

707
00:35:48,640 --> 00:35:50,520
Speaker 5: There are some people who get paid less than that,

708
00:35:50,560 --> 00:35:51,480
Speaker 5: but not a lot.

709
00:35:51,680 --> 00:35:54,560
Speaker 1: But my question is, how do you solve this? How

710
00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:57,040
Speaker 1: do you solve for a tight, tight labor market?

711
00:35:57,320 --> 00:35:59,600
Speaker 5: Well, I mean, you're absolutely right that the first thing

712
00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:03,480
Speaker 5: you can do is massively increase immigration, right, I mean,

713
00:36:03,480 --> 00:36:07,680
Speaker 5: that's no grainer, and it's one that both political parties

714
00:36:07,719 --> 00:36:10,800
Speaker 5: seem to be extremely reluctant to embrace. There used to

715
00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:15,080
Speaker 5: be a time when the George W. Bush Republican Party

716
00:36:15,160 --> 00:36:17,880
Speaker 5: was all in favor of more immigration, right right, right now,

717
00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:19,879
Speaker 5: it seems like even the Democrats don't want it.

718
00:36:20,160 --> 00:36:22,600
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, again, I don't want to defend because

719
00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:25,040
Speaker 1: I do think there's a sense in which Democrats are

720
00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:28,640
Speaker 1: afraid that Republicans will use it. I mean, Republicans have

721
00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:32,839
Speaker 1: made immigration such a toxic issue that they have made

722
00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:35,439
Speaker 1: it so that any kind of I mean, I don't

723
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:37,520
Speaker 1: think that Democrats are right on this. I think that

724
00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:40,319
Speaker 1: they should, but I mean it does dovetail with this.

725
00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:43,320
Speaker 1: We got to do two seconds on this debt ceiling.

726
00:36:43,719 --> 00:36:47,560
Speaker 1: So we have all this money we've spent. Now Republicans

727
00:36:47,600 --> 00:36:49,920
Speaker 1: are trying to figure out whether or not they should

728
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:52,080
Speaker 1: crash the American economy.

729
00:36:52,440 --> 00:36:57,040
Speaker 5: Discuss right, So, the dead ceiling is the single dumbest

730
00:36:57,080 --> 00:36:59,759
Speaker 5: thing in American politics, and it really does have a

731
00:36:59,760 --> 00:37:04,640
Speaker 5: lot of competition, but it is inconceivably done like no

732
00:37:04,760 --> 00:37:06,919
Speaker 5: other country would be so stupid as to have such

733
00:37:06,920 --> 00:37:11,120
Speaker 5: a thing. Congress has mandated a whole bunch of spending.

734
00:37:11,200 --> 00:37:13,719
Speaker 5: We have to spend that money by law, and so

735
00:37:13,760 --> 00:37:15,440
Speaker 5: if you're going to spend it, like, you have to

736
00:37:15,480 --> 00:37:17,480
Speaker 5: find that money somewhere. So what you do is you

737
00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:19,879
Speaker 5: go out and borrow it. We're perfectly capable of doing that,

738
00:37:20,440 --> 00:37:23,960
Speaker 5: except for this weird debt ceiling thing comes along and

739
00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:28,879
Speaker 5: prevents the government from borrowing unless it's raised. The thing

740
00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:32,400
Speaker 5: that astonishes me is that it's almost impossible to find

741
00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:38,319
Speaker 5: sitting elected politicians who will say that obvious, which is

742
00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:41,120
Speaker 5: the debt ceiling should not exist. It should be abolished.

743
00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:41,560
Speaker 6: Right.

744
00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:44,879
Speaker 5: This is a clear and obvious truth that every single

745
00:37:44,960 --> 00:37:48,719
Speaker 5: halfways in touching person understands. And yet there's a sort

746
00:37:48,760 --> 00:37:52,359
Speaker 5: of convention on both sides of the aisle that, like

747
00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:55,480
Speaker 5: the debt ceiling is meaningful and should continue to exist.

748
00:37:55,920 --> 00:37:58,840
Speaker 5: Joe Biden has come out quite recently and made noises

749
00:37:58,880 --> 00:38:02,480
Speaker 5: to that effect. Whenever anyone says should we abolish the

750
00:38:02,719 --> 00:38:06,120
Speaker 5: debt ceiling, the sitting president, whoever that is, always says no.

751
00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:09,839
Speaker 5: And I don't understand that at all. So there are

752
00:38:09,960 --> 00:38:15,120
Speaker 5: a bunch of sort of tricksterish solutions to this problem.

753
00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:19,200
Speaker 5: Platinum coins and premium bonds and various.

754
00:38:18,880 --> 00:38:21,280
Speaker 2: Slaves discharge petitions.

755
00:38:21,000 --> 00:38:25,360
Speaker 5: And or the just the simple expedient of Treasury just

756
00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:28,000
Speaker 5: going ahead and borrowing the money anyway and saying that

757
00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:32,520
Speaker 5: it would actually be unconstitutional to default on the debt. Therefore,

758
00:38:33,280 --> 00:38:35,640
Speaker 5: we have a legal obligation to ignore the debt ceiling,

759
00:38:35,760 --> 00:38:38,840
Speaker 5: but a constitutional obligation to ignore the debt ceiling, and

760
00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:41,600
Speaker 5: to just borrow the money anyway. But no politician wants

761
00:38:41,600 --> 00:38:43,920
Speaker 5: to do any of these things. All of the politicians

762
00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:46,600
Speaker 5: want to do this sort of weird brinkmanship thing that

763
00:38:46,719 --> 00:38:51,200
Speaker 5: happens every so often. And so the base case scenario

764
00:38:51,520 --> 00:38:53,600
Speaker 5: is that we're going to go to all of this

765
00:38:53,800 --> 00:38:55,960
Speaker 5: brinkmanship and eventually there's going to be some kind of

766
00:38:55,960 --> 00:38:58,960
Speaker 5: a deal and the bill will get pasted at the

767
00:38:59,040 --> 00:39:00,920
Speaker 5: very last minute, and there will be a whole bunch

768
00:39:01,000 --> 00:39:03,520
Speaker 5: of nervousness and everyone else in the world will look

769
00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:05,560
Speaker 5: at the United States and go like, why are you

770
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:07,600
Speaker 5: being so crazy?

771
00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:12,680
Speaker 1: Thank you, FELX, Please come back anytime.

772
00:39:13,640 --> 00:39:14,080
Speaker 2: Hi.

773
00:39:14,320 --> 00:39:18,640
Speaker 1: It's Mollie and I am wildly excited that for the

774
00:39:18,680 --> 00:39:24,200
Speaker 1: first time, Fast Politics, the show you're listening to right now,

775
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Speaker 1: is going to have merch for sale over at shop

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Speaker 1: dot fastpoliticspod dot com.

777
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Speaker 2: You can now buy.

778
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Speaker 1: Shirts, hats, hoodies, and toe bags with our incredible designs.

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Speaker 1: We've heard your cries to spread the word about our

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Speaker 1: podcast and get a tow bag with my adorable Leo

781
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Speaker 1: the Rescue Puppy on it, and now you can grab

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Speaker 1: this merchandise only at shop dot fastpoliticspod dot com.

783
00:39:59,480 --> 00:40:00,920
Speaker 2: Thanks for your support.

784
00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:07,760
Speaker 1: Mike pod Hortzer is a political strategist and former director

785
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:09,719
Speaker 1: of the AFLCIO.

786
00:40:10,440 --> 00:40:14,239
Speaker 2: Welcome to Fast Politics, Mike, Thank you. It's good to

787
00:40:14,280 --> 00:40:17,680
Speaker 2: be here. So you are here to talk about unions.

788
00:40:17,920 --> 00:40:21,080
Speaker 1: Explain to us a little bit about your union bona

789
00:40:21,080 --> 00:40:22,320
Speaker 1: fides if you don't mind.

790
00:40:22,880 --> 00:40:26,560
Speaker 6: Sure. I've woroked in the labor movement for about the

791
00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:31,040
Speaker 6: last thirty years and was political director of the afl

792
00:40:31,120 --> 00:40:36,000
Speaker 6: CIO for about ten of those, and have really been

793
00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:39,000
Speaker 6: doing politics since the seventies.

794
00:40:39,200 --> 00:40:41,880
Speaker 1: It seems like we are both in a great place

795
00:40:41,920 --> 00:40:44,440
Speaker 1: for unions and a bad place for unions.

796
00:40:44,480 --> 00:40:46,120
Speaker 2: Can we discuss sure?

797
00:40:46,200 --> 00:40:49,680
Speaker 6: I think that, as I think you're probably alluding to.

798
00:40:50,400 --> 00:40:54,319
Speaker 6: In terms of public opinion polls, unions have not been

799
00:40:54,440 --> 00:40:57,080
Speaker 6: this popular in a half century.

800
00:40:57,360 --> 00:40:59,080
Speaker 2: Right. On the other.

801
00:40:58,960 --> 00:41:03,439
Speaker 6: Hand, we're in a period of time where corporations are

802
00:41:03,560 --> 00:41:07,680
Speaker 6: still relentlessly making it difficult for working people to actually

803
00:41:07,840 --> 00:41:11,600
Speaker 6: be in a union, and that has always been the problem.

804
00:41:11,680 --> 00:41:14,160
Speaker 6: There's a way in which you know, people who are

805
00:41:14,760 --> 00:41:17,920
Speaker 6: less familiar thing that if you want to be in

806
00:41:17,960 --> 00:41:23,840
Speaker 6: a union, it's like joining ARP or something. But in fact,

807
00:41:24,200 --> 00:41:27,680
Speaker 6: corporations do everything they can to prevent the people who

808
00:41:27,719 --> 00:41:30,839
Speaker 6: work for them to form a union, and then even

809
00:41:30,880 --> 00:41:34,800
Speaker 6: if they do, they often drag their feet and resist

810
00:41:34,920 --> 00:41:39,800
Speaker 6: signing contracts. And so there's On the one side, I

811
00:41:39,880 --> 00:41:43,000
Speaker 6: think something very refreshing, which is that more and more

812
00:41:43,040 --> 00:41:47,600
Speaker 6: people understand the importance of collective action in this current

813
00:41:47,680 --> 00:41:52,160
Speaker 6: democratic crisis. But on the other hand, we have not

814
00:41:52,320 --> 00:41:57,280
Speaker 6: really much change in the balance of power between working

815
00:41:57,280 --> 00:42:02,200
Speaker 6: people and corporations to form unions. And it's ominous that

816
00:42:02,880 --> 00:42:06,120
Speaker 6: right now the Supreme Court is considering one case that

817
00:42:06,160 --> 00:42:10,640
Speaker 6: would greatly hurt people's ability to act collectively, the Glacier case.

818
00:42:11,200 --> 00:42:12,680
Speaker 2: And this is a court that has.

819
00:42:12,640 --> 00:42:16,640
Speaker 6: Already done a number of important decisions like Jannis to

820
00:42:17,239 --> 00:42:21,440
Speaker 6: make it more difficult to bring in to survive. So say,

821
00:42:21,600 --> 00:42:26,600
Speaker 6: people very much understand that coming out of this neoliberal,

822
00:42:26,640 --> 00:42:31,360
Speaker 6: individualistic era that the only way we can have the

823
00:42:31,440 --> 00:42:33,640
Speaker 6: kind of society we want is by being able to

824
00:42:33,680 --> 00:42:38,000
Speaker 6: act collectively. And at the same time, all the forces

825
00:42:38,160 --> 00:42:41,760
Speaker 6: that would lose are have a lot of institutional levers

826
00:42:41,800 --> 00:42:43,080
Speaker 6: to keep that at day.

827
00:42:43,560 --> 00:42:47,239
Speaker 1: So talk to me about how if Biden wants to

828
00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:50,640
Speaker 1: be the most union president, he would be able to

829
00:42:50,719 --> 00:42:52,960
Speaker 1: sort of do that and change that narrative.

830
00:42:53,320 --> 00:42:57,600
Speaker 6: I think that being the most union president since Franklin

831
00:42:57,680 --> 00:43:02,440
Speaker 6: Roosevelt is not very high bar. Part of the reason

832
00:43:02,640 --> 00:43:07,319
Speaker 6: why unions are in the position they're in is because

833
00:43:07,640 --> 00:43:13,719
Speaker 6: first Carter, then Clinton, and then Obama never made protecting

834
00:43:14,719 --> 00:43:20,080
Speaker 6: working people's right stack collectively a major priority and viewed

835
00:43:21,960 --> 00:43:26,960
Speaker 6: what we now know was catastrophic things like trade agreements

836
00:43:27,320 --> 00:43:32,080
Speaker 6: would devastate working people. So I think that what Biden's

837
00:43:32,080 --> 00:43:35,320
Speaker 6: done already is far beyond that, and also he comes

838
00:43:35,320 --> 00:43:39,600
Speaker 6: to it with a perspective that doesn't see which is

839
00:43:39,680 --> 00:43:43,920
Speaker 6: really pretty refreshing. Is really the first president since the

840
00:43:43,960 --> 00:43:49,360
Speaker 6: mid twentieth century that sees people in union as being

841
00:43:49,400 --> 00:43:53,000
Speaker 6: a positive for the economy, not a part of the

842
00:43:53,320 --> 00:43:55,520
Speaker 6: democratic coalition of interests?

843
00:43:56,120 --> 00:43:59,800
Speaker 1: Right, So, sort of what could Democrats do to strengthen

844
00:43:59,840 --> 00:44:01,680
Speaker 1: youunions that they're not doing well.

845
00:44:01,719 --> 00:44:04,799
Speaker 6: I think one thing that we saw that was as

846
00:44:04,880 --> 00:44:08,279
Speaker 6: a really good example was what we just saw in

847
00:44:08,320 --> 00:44:14,799
Speaker 6: Michigan where Governor Whittmer and the Democrats there reversed the

848
00:44:14,880 --> 00:44:16,080
Speaker 6: right to work in the state.

849
00:44:16,239 --> 00:44:18,239
Speaker 1: Can you explain to us a little bit about how

850
00:44:18,280 --> 00:44:20,440
Speaker 1: that happened and how they did that and start with

851
00:44:20,480 --> 00:44:22,799
Speaker 1: sort of what the history right to work laws are

852
00:44:22,880 --> 00:44:25,120
Speaker 1: and how they were able to do that.

853
00:44:25,280 --> 00:44:28,920
Speaker 6: Sure during the New Deal. The first law to provide

854
00:44:29,320 --> 00:44:34,200
Speaker 6: working people with government protected collective bargaining rights was past

855
00:44:34,280 --> 00:44:37,960
Speaker 6: the Wagonaract, and that is where the explosion of union

856
00:44:38,120 --> 00:44:43,319
Speaker 6: membership first happened. And the basic idea for people who

857
00:44:43,360 --> 00:44:45,759
Speaker 6: are listening who have not been in a union is

858
00:44:45,840 --> 00:44:49,919
Speaker 6: that if you have the benefit of a union contract,

859
00:44:50,160 --> 00:44:51,720
Speaker 6: then you pay dues.

860
00:44:52,400 --> 00:44:54,640
Speaker 3: And one of the real.

861
00:44:54,600 --> 00:44:58,879
Speaker 6: Ironies of history is that during the nineteen thirties when

862
00:44:58,920 --> 00:45:05,680
Speaker 6: the Wagonarak passed, Southern Democrats were for it because they

863
00:45:06,000 --> 00:45:09,600
Speaker 6: were very hostile to northern capitalists and saw all the

864
00:45:09,640 --> 00:45:14,840
Speaker 6: industrial agitation as something that would undermine them, and so

865
00:45:15,040 --> 00:45:18,560
Speaker 6: strengthening unions seemed like a good idea to them. But

866
00:45:18,600 --> 00:45:23,239
Speaker 6: of course we're talking about the segregationist wing of the

867
00:45:23,239 --> 00:45:27,319
Speaker 6: Democratic Party. Then by the late thirties, unions were in

868
00:45:27,400 --> 00:45:31,600
Speaker 6: the South trying to organize multi racial unions, which of

869
00:45:31,640 --> 00:45:37,359
Speaker 6: course was devastating to those segregationists, and so they did

870
00:45:37,360 --> 00:45:42,400
Speaker 6: a one eighty allied with the Northern Republicans to pass

871
00:45:42,440 --> 00:45:44,960
Speaker 6: a bill called the Tariff Kaffed Hartley Act in the

872
00:45:45,000 --> 00:45:51,160
Speaker 6: mid nineteen forties, which gave state governments the opportunity to

873
00:45:51,440 --> 00:45:55,319
Speaker 6: pass what is very misleadingly called right to work legislation,

874
00:45:55,760 --> 00:45:59,319
Speaker 6: which means that if you are in a union, you

875
00:45:59,440 --> 00:46:03,840
Speaker 6: don't have to paid dues. And pretty much at that point,

876
00:46:04,040 --> 00:46:08,280
Speaker 6: all those segregation estates passed right to work lass because

877
00:46:08,760 --> 00:46:12,040
Speaker 6: the last thing they wanted was the emergence of a

878
00:46:12,120 --> 00:46:15,040
Speaker 6: multi racial working class with power in that region, and

879
00:46:15,040 --> 00:46:20,799
Speaker 6: they've been effective at achieving that. What happened after the

880
00:46:20,840 --> 00:46:25,840
Speaker 6: twenty ten election is that in states like Wisconsin in Michigan,

881
00:46:26,520 --> 00:46:31,600
Speaker 6: when these extreme MAGA governors like Walker and Snyder came in,

882
00:46:32,200 --> 00:46:37,239
Speaker 6: they understood that it was essential for future political success

883
00:46:37,440 --> 00:46:41,000
Speaker 6: to take out the labor movement, and so they passed

884
00:46:41,080 --> 00:46:44,239
Speaker 6: right to work in those states. Now, in both of

885
00:46:44,239 --> 00:46:48,200
Speaker 6: those states there was really no recourse because, as you know,

886
00:46:49,760 --> 00:46:54,359
Speaker 6: they also did extreme gerrymandering, so that even though those

887
00:46:54,400 --> 00:46:58,239
Speaker 6: states were voting about fifty to fifty, those Republicans in

888
00:46:58,239 --> 00:47:02,200
Speaker 6: the legislature had substantial majorities in Michigan. And this just

889
00:47:02,239 --> 00:47:06,080
Speaker 6: shows like what happens when you shine democracy on all this.

890
00:47:06,760 --> 00:47:11,480
Speaker 6: As you know, an initiative busted up themandering with an

891
00:47:11,520 --> 00:47:16,399
Speaker 6: independent commission. The twenty twenty two election then meant that

892
00:47:16,480 --> 00:47:18,239
Speaker 6: if you get half the votes to get half the

893
00:47:18,280 --> 00:47:22,919
Speaker 6: seats with Whitmer, they all agreed have to undo right

894
00:47:22,960 --> 00:47:25,200
Speaker 6: to work, and you got that. Of course, it's still

895
00:47:25,239 --> 00:47:29,279
Speaker 6: the case in Wisconsin because of how severely jerrymander it is.

896
00:47:29,880 --> 00:47:32,440
Speaker 6: And the other thing that I think is really important

897
00:47:32,520 --> 00:47:37,640
Speaker 6: for people to understand, because it's not necessarily intuitive to

898
00:47:37,680 --> 00:47:42,479
Speaker 6: people who think about unions as just something that other

899
00:47:42,560 --> 00:47:45,560
Speaker 6: people should have the right to belong to. It's really

900
00:47:46,200 --> 00:47:50,440
Speaker 6: an essential foundation of democracy. If it is not a

901
00:47:50,480 --> 00:47:56,000
Speaker 6: coincidence that the reach that the red states are overwhelming

902
00:47:56,040 --> 00:47:59,719
Speaker 6: the right to work and that the blue states are

903
00:48:00,280 --> 00:48:04,360
Speaker 6: entirely not right to work. Other than Nevada, there's not

904
00:48:04,600 --> 00:48:08,320
Speaker 6: a state legislature in the country with a democratic majority

905
00:48:08,880 --> 00:48:10,680
Speaker 6: that is right to work.

906
00:48:10,880 --> 00:48:15,000
Speaker 1: Right, because right to work is really just about crushing unions.

907
00:48:15,280 --> 00:48:18,480
Speaker 6: Crushing unions, and I think important for our listeners to

908
00:48:18,560 --> 00:48:23,160
Speaker 6: understand it's not just crushing the institution of unions. It's

909
00:48:23,280 --> 00:48:28,640
Speaker 6: crushing the opportunity for working people to take collective action. Right,

910
00:48:28,880 --> 00:48:32,320
Speaker 6: That's where the connection with democracy comes in.

911
00:48:32,840 --> 00:48:37,320
Speaker 1: Right, So, really, these right to work states are anti democratic.

912
00:48:37,040 --> 00:48:40,280
Speaker 6: Absolutely, but it's all of a piece right that these

913
00:48:40,280 --> 00:48:45,120
Speaker 6: states from the founding of the country had a very

914
00:48:45,840 --> 00:48:51,680
Speaker 6: white Christian supremacist perspective. That first was the Slave States

915
00:48:51,800 --> 00:48:55,719
Speaker 6: and the Confedteracy and seceded, and then Jim Crow and

916
00:48:55,800 --> 00:48:58,680
Speaker 6: now this right, it's all of a piece with a

917
00:48:58,840 --> 00:49:04,000
Speaker 6: view that the government is to ensure compliance with a

918
00:49:04,239 --> 00:49:09,839
Speaker 6: known theocratic code, not to be the way people govern themselves.

919
00:49:10,239 --> 00:49:14,839
Speaker 2: Right. For sure, WGA right now is striking. I mean,

920
00:49:15,000 --> 00:49:16,920
Speaker 2: I am not part of a union.

921
00:49:16,719 --> 00:49:19,520
Speaker 1: Because where I work is not unionized, But what do

922
00:49:19,560 --> 00:49:20,839
Speaker 1: you think the WGA?

923
00:49:20,880 --> 00:49:23,279
Speaker 2: I mean, what are your takes on that.

924
00:49:23,920 --> 00:49:28,239
Speaker 6: I think that what we're seeing with WGA is in

925
00:49:28,320 --> 00:49:32,160
Speaker 6: fact an illustration of an aspect of democracy that is

926
00:49:32,200 --> 00:49:36,120
Speaker 6: almost always out of view, right, which is that we

927
00:49:36,200 --> 00:49:38,719
Speaker 6: are all whether we're in a union or not, at

928
00:49:38,800 --> 00:49:42,760
Speaker 6: a juncture where things like AI and other issues are

929
00:49:43,080 --> 00:49:48,880
Speaker 6: creating uncertainty about the future. And what unions in general,

930
00:49:49,000 --> 00:49:52,880
Speaker 6: and what WGA in particular are able to do is

931
00:49:52,960 --> 00:49:57,960
Speaker 6: instead of sort of as individual have opinions, get together,

932
00:49:58,200 --> 00:50:03,920
Speaker 6: figure out what collectively we think the best work arrangements

933
00:50:03,920 --> 00:50:06,960
Speaker 6: are going forward and negotiate for them. And I think

934
00:50:07,120 --> 00:50:10,719
Speaker 6: that's that's the essence of it. Is that and this

935
00:50:10,880 --> 00:50:14,680
Speaker 6: is where it's kind of ironic, is that the way

936
00:50:14,719 --> 00:50:19,799
Speaker 6: in which the power of people acting collectively is overlooked, right,

937
00:50:19,920 --> 00:50:22,480
Speaker 6: so that you have a lot of people, for example,

938
00:50:22,680 --> 00:50:28,200
Speaker 6: wanting to pass legislation to redistribute income because of gross inequality.

939
00:50:28,520 --> 00:50:32,880
Speaker 6: Even conservative economists think just for union members, not the

940
00:50:33,000 --> 00:50:36,239
Speaker 6: ripple effect or society is an extra one hundred and

941
00:50:36,239 --> 00:50:40,719
Speaker 6: fifty billion dollars or more to working people other than

942
00:50:40,800 --> 00:50:45,560
Speaker 6: Medicaid Medicare. There's no government program right now that redistributes

943
00:50:45,680 --> 00:50:49,880
Speaker 6: that much money, not even snap. There are big issues

944
00:50:49,920 --> 00:50:55,360
Speaker 6: out there, like trying to pass legislation to curtail corporations

945
00:50:55,440 --> 00:50:59,759
Speaker 6: surveilling you at work. That's actually the case. We're working

946
00:51:00,000 --> 00:51:04,680
Speaker 6: people can act collectively and of nature, their contracts protected them.

947
00:51:05,080 --> 00:51:05,279
Speaker 3: Right.

948
00:51:05,719 --> 00:51:09,839
Speaker 6: It's a system that's been working for a century, and

949
00:51:09,880 --> 00:51:12,200
Speaker 6: it also takes the people who are part of those

950
00:51:12,280 --> 00:51:16,880
Speaker 6: negotiations and makes them better citizens. There are studies that

951
00:51:17,000 --> 00:51:22,239
Speaker 6: show that being in a union makes people less racially resentful.

952
00:51:22,320 --> 00:51:24,080
Speaker 2: They're being treated better too.

953
00:51:24,320 --> 00:51:27,320
Speaker 6: Right, they're being treated but also because the sort of

954
00:51:27,320 --> 00:51:31,319
Speaker 6: the way in which bosses the buy people over you know,

955
00:51:32,000 --> 00:51:35,120
Speaker 6: race or used for waste wedges. When you're in an

956
00:51:35,239 --> 00:51:38,640
Speaker 6: environment where you all have to sign the same contract,

957
00:51:39,320 --> 00:51:41,880
Speaker 6: there's no getting ahead because you're white or because you're

958
00:51:41,920 --> 00:51:46,120
Speaker 6: a male. Then you start looking at what you want

959
00:51:46,160 --> 00:51:48,320
Speaker 6: in your contract a little differently.

960
00:51:48,239 --> 00:51:50,560
Speaker 1: Right, Right, that's a good point. I mean, what do

961
00:51:50,600 --> 00:51:52,880
Speaker 1: you see as the future for unions right now?

962
00:51:53,280 --> 00:51:54,640
Speaker 3: I think that's really hard to say.

963
00:51:54,719 --> 00:51:58,560
Speaker 6: I think that along with unions, we're all, you know,

964
00:51:58,680 --> 00:52:01,600
Speaker 6: waiting for the next doesn't choose to drop from the

965
00:52:01,640 --> 00:52:04,359
Speaker 6: Supreme Court. On one side, I think we can look

966
00:52:04,400 --> 00:52:08,880
Speaker 6: at what's happening at Starbucks and Amazon and elsewhere, seeing

967
00:52:09,080 --> 00:52:13,080
Speaker 6: that young people are really beginning to understand and be

968
00:52:13,200 --> 00:52:17,440
Speaker 6: committed to acting collectively to get a better deal at work.

969
00:52:17,600 --> 00:52:20,960
Speaker 6: But on the other hand, they're like, you know, all

970
00:52:21,000 --> 00:52:23,400
Speaker 6: bets off on what the Supreme Court's going to do.

971
00:52:23,400 --> 00:52:26,240
Speaker 2: Don't you just assume they'll do whatever's worse for the people?

972
00:52:26,680 --> 00:52:32,880
Speaker 6: Yeah, but there's like different degrees of worst, right, you know,

973
00:52:33,120 --> 00:52:37,160
Speaker 6: we're just meeting now. But definitely on the yeah, things

974
00:52:37,200 --> 00:52:40,040
Speaker 6: will get worse side of things, there probably is a

975
00:52:40,120 --> 00:52:43,840
Speaker 6: limit to what they can do, at least in one bite.

976
00:52:44,080 --> 00:52:44,279
Speaker 2: Right.

977
00:52:44,719 --> 00:52:47,440
Speaker 1: What I've been really impressed with the Supreme Court is

978
00:52:47,600 --> 00:52:53,080
Speaker 1: just how they've had They've really not cared at all. Right, Yeah,

979
00:52:53,440 --> 00:52:56,000
Speaker 1: remember John Roberts did a lot of sleazy stuff, but

980
00:52:56,080 --> 00:52:58,920
Speaker 1: he did it in a way so that people wouldn't

981
00:52:59,160 --> 00:53:01,919
Speaker 1: be so up sad, you know, and they wouldn't think

982
00:53:01,960 --> 00:53:03,640
Speaker 1: that the Supreme Court was so political.

983
00:53:03,719 --> 00:53:05,640
Speaker 2: But now that's all out the window.

984
00:53:05,680 --> 00:53:08,480
Speaker 6: Right, And I'm glad you're bringing the Supreme Court in

985
00:53:08,600 --> 00:53:11,960
Speaker 6: more because I think some people are trying to recognize this,

986
00:53:12,200 --> 00:53:16,279
Speaker 6: but there's a federal society majority on the court. Right,

987
00:53:16,320 --> 00:53:18,880
Speaker 6: this is the Court has done many bad things in

988
00:53:18,920 --> 00:53:23,239
Speaker 6: our nation's history, some unforgiven, but this was like an

989
00:53:23,360 --> 00:53:24,719
Speaker 6: active hijacking.

990
00:53:25,000 --> 00:53:27,640
Speaker 3: Right. The six justices.

991
00:53:27,760 --> 00:53:33,040
Speaker 6: Were nominated because they swore allegiance to an organized set

992
00:53:33,080 --> 00:53:37,880
Speaker 6: of principles that were funded by oligarchs and supported by

993
00:53:38,520 --> 00:53:43,720
Speaker 6: the Christian right. Like, there's nothing mysterious about this. They

994
00:53:44,360 --> 00:53:47,840
Speaker 6: were sent They are on the court not to decide cases,

995
00:53:47,880 --> 00:53:51,759
Speaker 6: but to choose cases that allowed them to essentially legislate.

996
00:53:52,160 --> 00:53:55,480
Speaker 6: And I think the thing that sort of took all

997
00:53:55,560 --> 00:54:01,080
Speaker 6: constraints off of them was the twenty ten election, because remember,

998
00:54:01,120 --> 00:54:04,839
Speaker 6: after two thousand and eight, it looked plausible that Democrats

999
00:54:04,920 --> 00:54:08,799
Speaker 6: might have a sixty vote majority, and that as it

1000
00:54:08,840 --> 00:54:11,600
Speaker 6: has been the case up until that point in American history,

1001
00:54:12,120 --> 00:54:16,680
Speaker 6: Congress could overrule the most outrageous non constitutional judgments of

1002
00:54:16,719 --> 00:54:20,120
Speaker 6: the Court. But after the twenty ten election, it became

1003
00:54:20,280 --> 00:54:26,799
Speaker 6: clear that Congress was not a problem. Couldn't possibly hould

1004
00:54:26,840 --> 00:54:30,160
Speaker 6: them accountable for anything. And so if you kind of

1005
00:54:30,280 --> 00:54:34,400
Speaker 6: turn off what you learned on civics and high school,

1006
00:54:34,760 --> 00:54:39,279
Speaker 6: you realize that the most functioning legislative body in the

1007
00:54:39,320 --> 00:54:42,560
Speaker 6: country right now is the Supreme Court. They are actually

1008
00:54:42,600 --> 00:54:46,200
Speaker 6: not just deciding cases. They're deciding who can give to campaigns,

1009
00:54:46,320 --> 00:54:49,160
Speaker 6: They're deciding who can vote. There are all of these

1010
00:54:49,200 --> 00:54:53,480
Speaker 6: things that we used to do democratically through votes and elections.

1011
00:54:53,719 --> 00:54:56,600
Speaker 6: They're just doing it's because they were put there to

1012
00:54:56,640 --> 00:54:59,880
Speaker 6: do it, and it's because their backers know they couldn't

1013
00:55:00,000 --> 00:55:02,840
Speaker 6: accomplish it through any kind of democratic process.

1014
00:55:03,080 --> 00:55:05,080
Speaker 2: Thank you so much. I hope you'll come back.

1015
00:55:05,360 --> 00:55:06,359
Speaker 6: Sure, thank you.

1016
00:55:09,000 --> 00:55:12,880
Speaker 2: No Thick, Jesse Cannon.

1017
00:55:12,960 --> 00:55:14,080
Speaker 5: Miley Jung Fast.

1018
00:55:14,280 --> 00:55:19,040
Speaker 2: So there's this ABC News poll that seems little.

1019
00:55:18,560 --> 00:55:22,080
Speaker 1: Sus I mean, this is the thing about these polls.

1020
00:55:22,480 --> 00:55:25,799
Speaker 1: I feel like we have a poll. Sometimes it's a

1021
00:55:25,800 --> 00:55:29,160
Speaker 1: good poll, sometimes it's a bad poll. We then have

1022
00:55:29,239 --> 00:55:33,000
Speaker 1: to be subjected to an entire week long news cycle

1023
00:55:33,160 --> 00:55:34,040
Speaker 1: on said poll.

1024
00:55:34,520 --> 00:55:36,080
Speaker 2: So let's talk about this poll.

1025
00:55:36,120 --> 00:55:39,160
Speaker 1: This is the most recent New York Post ABC poll

1026
00:55:39,200 --> 00:55:42,560
Speaker 1: out this morning. It shows Biden's approval rating down to

1027
00:55:42,600 --> 00:55:45,560
Speaker 1: thirty six and it shows him losing a matchup against

1028
00:55:45,600 --> 00:55:49,840
Speaker 1: Trump by six points. And in this piece in Playbook,

1029
00:55:49,880 --> 00:55:52,320
Speaker 1: it says, well, is this question. Is this poll simply

1030
00:55:52,360 --> 00:55:56,400
Speaker 1: an outlier? And there are some people from the Washington

1031
00:55:56,440 --> 00:55:59,959
Speaker 1: Post who are pretty seasoned, like Dan Balls, who said,

1032
00:56:00,040 --> 00:56:03,280
Speaker 1: as in fact, they think it is an outlie our poll.

1033
00:56:03,680 --> 00:56:06,160
Speaker 1: So now we are going to be subjected to an

1034
00:56:06,400 --> 00:56:10,560
Speaker 1: entire news cycle of is Biden unelectable? And here's the

1035
00:56:10,640 --> 00:56:14,080
Speaker 1: thing we have learned from these last the last midterm,

1036
00:56:14,200 --> 00:56:17,280
Speaker 1: and the twenty twenty election, and the twenty eighteen election,

1037
00:56:17,400 --> 00:56:20,480
Speaker 1: and by the way, even the twenty sixteen election, is

1038
00:56:20,520 --> 00:56:25,279
Speaker 1: that polls are often not accurate. And so maybe this

1039
00:56:25,400 --> 00:56:28,120
Speaker 1: poll is very accurate, but there's a really good chance

1040
00:56:28,160 --> 00:56:31,400
Speaker 1: that it's not. And the idea that we're going to

1041
00:56:31,400 --> 00:56:35,600
Speaker 1: be subjected to an entire change of thinking because of

1042
00:56:35,640 --> 00:56:39,759
Speaker 1: this one stupid poll is our moment of fuckery. And

1043
00:56:39,840 --> 00:56:44,600
Speaker 1: it gets a hearty, hearty moment of fuckery. That's it

1044
00:56:44,760 --> 00:56:46,160
Speaker 1: for this episode of Fast