1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,520 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,479 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,880 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. I want to get 7 00:00:22,880 --> 00:00:25,240 Speaker 1: to our next guest here, Jess Larson, CEO and founder 8 00:00:25,239 --> 00:00:28,480 Speaker 1: of Briarcliff Credit Partners. Jess, thanks so much for joining 9 00:00:28,560 --> 00:00:31,200 Speaker 1: us here. You know, I want to get you know, 10 00:00:31,600 --> 00:00:35,120 Speaker 1: your view of the private credit business. Give us a 11 00:00:35,159 --> 00:00:38,440 Speaker 1: sense that like how big private credit is? Is it growing? 12 00:00:38,760 --> 00:00:43,080 Speaker 1: How is it used within the compital markets? Thank you well. 13 00:00:43,280 --> 00:00:45,040 Speaker 1: First of all, thank you very much for for having 14 00:00:45,080 --> 00:00:49,120 Speaker 1: me on and write A credit is already sitting at 15 00:00:49,159 --> 00:00:52,200 Speaker 1: one point to trillion dollars, so it is. It has 16 00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:55,680 Speaker 1: really matured and grown since kind of Dart Frank intermediated 17 00:00:55,720 --> 00:00:58,880 Speaker 1: the banks. So it's been sprinting and growing since two 18 00:00:58,880 --> 00:01:03,560 Speaker 1: thousand and ten. Now what's really interesting here is that sprinting, 19 00:01:03,640 --> 00:01:06,720 Speaker 1: that growth is not it is not slowing down by 20 00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:10,600 Speaker 1: any in any way. So what we anticipate is by 21 00:01:10,959 --> 00:01:13,600 Speaker 1: so only a few years, two years out it will 22 00:01:13,640 --> 00:01:16,720 Speaker 1: be at two point seven trillion dollar asset class. So 23 00:01:16,880 --> 00:01:19,880 Speaker 1: growth is there, it's here to stay. How do I 24 00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:21,800 Speaker 1: get a piece of that? Because I hear I'm looking 25 00:01:21,840 --> 00:01:25,080 Speaker 1: at the ten year trading at two point four That 26 00:01:25,120 --> 00:01:27,360 Speaker 1: doesn't do it for me. I need more yield. I'm 27 00:01:27,360 --> 00:01:29,640 Speaker 1: thinking about private credit. How do I get exposure? How 28 00:01:29,680 --> 00:01:33,560 Speaker 1: does the average investor get exposure to the private credit market? Well, 29 00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:36,839 Speaker 1: depending on whether we talk about the average average consumer 30 00:01:36,959 --> 00:01:39,720 Speaker 1: or the average institutions, right, But that is exactly you're 31 00:01:39,720 --> 00:01:42,800 Speaker 1: starting on the on the perfect point here, right is 32 00:01:43,040 --> 00:01:46,120 Speaker 1: your fixed income is really becoming a no income, and 33 00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:48,040 Speaker 1: so what you want to do is you want to 34 00:01:48,160 --> 00:01:52,000 Speaker 1: rotate some of that into your private creditor and in 35 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:55,160 Speaker 1: many cases, what's the diary lending asset class? So what 36 00:01:55,320 --> 00:01:59,520 Speaker 1: that is exactly why we're seeing private credit becoming increasingly popular, 37 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:02,960 Speaker 1: right it is? It is for those reasons. Is there 38 00:02:02,960 --> 00:02:07,360 Speaker 1: a difference between what you're doing and direct lending? Private 39 00:02:07,400 --> 00:02:11,679 Speaker 1: credit um is a very broad kind of asset class 40 00:02:11,720 --> 00:02:14,440 Speaker 1: as sub part of that or sub strategy that is 41 00:02:14,520 --> 00:02:17,760 Speaker 1: direct lending, But there's so much more to private credits 42 00:02:17,840 --> 00:02:21,000 Speaker 1: than just doric lending, and that is exactly what we 43 00:02:21,040 --> 00:02:24,520 Speaker 1: do here at Briercliffe. We look at more n stack 44 00:02:24,600 --> 00:02:29,639 Speaker 1: to specific uncorelated strategies, that sits outside of direct lending, 45 00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:33,600 Speaker 1: offering other types of access and exposure to these institutions 46 00:02:34,200 --> 00:02:38,000 Speaker 1: and to you. But you gotta call me after this program. 47 00:02:38,080 --> 00:02:42,120 Speaker 1: So what kind of sectors are interesting to you guys 48 00:02:42,120 --> 00:02:47,519 Speaker 1: at Briarcliffe these days in terms of the credit outlook. Yes, 49 00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:51,040 Speaker 1: what we have seen over the last five six years 50 00:02:51,040 --> 00:02:53,320 Speaker 1: which has been really interesting within the private credit space, 51 00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:56,680 Speaker 1: we have seen direct lending really taken front and center. 52 00:02:57,440 --> 00:02:59,560 Speaker 1: Bearing in mind leading up to the g f C 53 00:02:59,840 --> 00:03:03,560 Speaker 1: it was really mess and distressed for control. That was 54 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:08,160 Speaker 1: really what private credit was PRETFC, both CFC and dot frank. 55 00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:10,840 Speaker 1: It was all about drek lending because the banks simply 56 00:03:10,880 --> 00:03:13,760 Speaker 1: couldn't offer it. Darren that direk lending is a great 57 00:03:13,760 --> 00:03:17,799 Speaker 1: asset class, but as more capital comes into it, there 58 00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:21,639 Speaker 1: has been some compression returns US pension funds and a 59 00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:24,520 Speaker 1: lot of institutionals here in the US have an internal 60 00:03:25,680 --> 00:03:28,840 Speaker 1: performance hurdle of seven percent. And if your direct lending 61 00:03:28,919 --> 00:03:31,760 Speaker 1: is no longer meeting that, you really want to look 62 00:03:31,840 --> 00:03:35,880 Speaker 1: outside of direct lending. It could be sector specific, it 63 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:38,520 Speaker 1: could be different kind of specialty lending. It could be 64 00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:42,160 Speaker 1: structured products, it could be all sorts of encore lated 65 00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:45,960 Speaker 1: strategies that kind of gives you more diversification and even 66 00:03:46,080 --> 00:03:51,800 Speaker 1: higher performance. And that's what we're looking for. Where I 67 00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:54,640 Speaker 1: guess there's probably no shortage of But where are you 68 00:03:54,680 --> 00:04:00,880 Speaker 1: getting the borrowers? Well, the borrowers said, well, you know, 69 00:04:00,960 --> 00:04:04,480 Speaker 1: the majority of our society, of the Georga or economy 70 00:04:04,480 --> 00:04:07,800 Speaker 1: are really private, privately owned companies. So there is really 71 00:04:07,840 --> 00:04:11,040 Speaker 1: no shortes of border borrows out there as long as 72 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:15,760 Speaker 1: the banks are unable to really service these private companies. 73 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:18,159 Speaker 1: So there are no shortage whether we find them in 74 00:04:18,200 --> 00:04:21,320 Speaker 1: the healthcare industry, the food sector, or even the sports 75 00:04:21,760 --> 00:04:25,480 Speaker 1: clubs or simply even the banks need help with their 76 00:04:25,520 --> 00:04:28,440 Speaker 1: revolver strategies. There are really no short as of boars 77 00:04:28,480 --> 00:04:30,560 Speaker 1: out there. But can you do it? I mean, is 78 00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:33,560 Speaker 1: it cheaper than a bank? I mean, sorry, an institution 79 00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:38,000 Speaker 1: going to a bank and selling a bond. Well, for 80 00:04:38,120 --> 00:04:42,880 Speaker 1: many companies like your restaurant chains, um, the banking finances 81 00:04:42,880 --> 00:04:46,440 Speaker 1: seem siming not available anymore. Right, And if you want 82 00:04:46,480 --> 00:04:52,360 Speaker 1: flexible capital and flexible financing. The banking route is simply 83 00:04:52,360 --> 00:04:55,600 Speaker 1: not possible anymore. So you really need to find different 84 00:04:55,640 --> 00:04:59,360 Speaker 1: ways of accessing the capital market. And that is why 85 00:04:58,960 --> 00:05:02,960 Speaker 1: the private credit is not so much about price, it's 86 00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:07,039 Speaker 1: more about the ability to really get access. Hey, Jess, 87 00:05:07,040 --> 00:05:09,400 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. Really appreciate that. Jess Larson, 88 00:05:09,480 --> 00:05:14,359 Speaker 1: CEO and founder of Briarcliff Credit Partners. This is the 89 00:05:14,520 --> 00:05:18,360 Speaker 1: Big Take, the best of Bloomberg's in depth original reporting 90 00:05:18,440 --> 00:05:21,160 Speaker 1: from around the globe. We're running on a financial system 91 00:05:21,200 --> 00:05:24,960 Speaker 1: that's running on old technology. We're seeing places reach fresh 92 00:05:25,040 --> 00:05:28,000 Speaker 1: recordize what unfolds in mid terms, we will no doubt 93 00:05:28,040 --> 00:05:31,400 Speaker 1: see again in the next presidential election. The Big Take 94 00:05:31,760 --> 00:05:36,119 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. All right, the Big Take story today 95 00:05:36,200 --> 00:05:40,400 Speaker 1: takes us to the main line of Philadelphia. We're talking Malvern, Pennsylvania, 96 00:05:40,440 --> 00:05:42,599 Speaker 1: and you can talk Malvern, you talk, uh, you know 97 00:05:42,680 --> 00:05:47,880 Speaker 1: about Vanguard. They have eight trillion dollars in assets under management. 98 00:05:47,880 --> 00:05:50,520 Speaker 1: Only black Rock manages more money. But there's change going 99 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:53,679 Speaker 1: on at Vanguard. Let's get the latest on that story. 100 00:05:53,720 --> 00:05:56,640 Speaker 1: Any massive investing reporter for Bloomberg News joins us here 101 00:05:56,640 --> 00:06:00,680 Speaker 1: with the Big Take story. What's going on in malve In, Pennsylvania. 102 00:06:00,680 --> 00:06:04,719 Speaker 1: Any So, Vanguard, as you mentioned, is one of the 103 00:06:04,720 --> 00:06:07,800 Speaker 1: world's largest asset managers. It's the second largest in the 104 00:06:07,920 --> 00:06:11,240 Speaker 1: entire world with eight trillion in assets. And it built 105 00:06:11,480 --> 00:06:13,640 Speaker 1: it was it was founded by Jack Bogel on this 106 00:06:13,720 --> 00:06:18,839 Speaker 1: principle of low cost study as it goes investing. And 107 00:06:19,720 --> 00:06:23,360 Speaker 1: they've they've pivoted in some ways as the industry has 108 00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:27,320 Speaker 1: changed to keep up and to continue competing. So it's 109 00:06:27,400 --> 00:06:32,360 Speaker 1: really a very unique model in the industry. And it's 110 00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:35,000 Speaker 1: and they're starting to move into directions that are a 111 00:06:35,080 --> 00:06:38,200 Speaker 1: little bit different for a place like Vanguard. Uh, places 112 00:06:38,240 --> 00:06:42,080 Speaker 1: like private equity, for example, which uh steam counter at 113 00:06:42,120 --> 00:06:45,200 Speaker 1: least to some people to what Bogol's ethos was all about. 114 00:06:45,720 --> 00:06:50,880 Speaker 1: Gotta be counter to everyone about what Bogel. I mean. Imagine, 115 00:06:51,120 --> 00:06:54,520 Speaker 1: if you will, someone who changed Wall Street more than 116 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:57,960 Speaker 1: anyone else and didn't end up a billionaire. Isn't that 117 00:06:58,000 --> 00:07:02,279 Speaker 1: the case with Jack Bogel exactly? Uh, Vogel did not 118 00:07:02,400 --> 00:07:06,120 Speaker 1: wind up a billionaire. He had I think about a 119 00:07:06,200 --> 00:07:09,040 Speaker 1: net worth of less than a hundred million dollars when 120 00:07:09,080 --> 00:07:12,040 Speaker 1: he died, and you compare that against you know, the 121 00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:16,120 Speaker 1: billionaires the billionaire Johnson family, for example, of Fidelity Fame 122 00:07:16,200 --> 00:07:19,880 Speaker 1: a direct competitor to Vanguard, So it's pretty extraordinary. He 123 00:07:19,960 --> 00:07:23,480 Speaker 1: found in the firm all on the idea of lowering 124 00:07:23,520 --> 00:07:27,760 Speaker 1: costs year after year for investors and really offering these 125 00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:34,080 Speaker 1: cheap funds, mostly index funds um and undercutting competitors on price. 126 00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:38,760 Speaker 1: What's changed in the industry is all the other competitors 127 00:07:38,840 --> 00:07:43,080 Speaker 1: like black Rock, Fidelity, Charles Schwab had basically no choice 128 00:07:43,120 --> 00:07:46,440 Speaker 1: but to follow Vanguard and cut their own fees on 129 00:07:46,480 --> 00:07:49,080 Speaker 1: a lot of funds to the bone as well. And 130 00:07:49,120 --> 00:07:51,280 Speaker 1: so what Vanguard is seeing now is that it kind 131 00:07:51,280 --> 00:07:53,760 Speaker 1: of has to move in a different direction if it 132 00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:57,280 Speaker 1: wants to keep accumulating assets because it's already so large. 133 00:07:57,360 --> 00:08:00,880 Speaker 1: So that helped precipitate some of the changes, but does 134 00:08:00,880 --> 00:08:04,240 Speaker 1: it annie. I mean, the point the reason Bogel died 135 00:08:04,280 --> 00:08:08,320 Speaker 1: with only a hundred million dollars roughly is that it 136 00:08:08,360 --> 00:08:12,600 Speaker 1: wasn't his endgame. He he wasn't trying to get mega 137 00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:17,760 Speaker 1: rich um. He didn't need to to win in Wall 138 00:08:17,840 --> 00:08:20,960 Speaker 1: Street terms. He was on a mission to help the 139 00:08:21,000 --> 00:08:25,840 Speaker 1: average investor. If that's what Vanguard wants to do, um, 140 00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:28,360 Speaker 1: do they think private equity products are going to help 141 00:08:28,400 --> 00:08:32,520 Speaker 1: the average investor perseasely. Well, they say that they can 142 00:08:32,600 --> 00:08:36,600 Speaker 1: undercut competitors on price, even for private equity. That we're 143 00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:39,880 Speaker 1: that kind of rarefied higher fee world. But you know, 144 00:08:39,960 --> 00:08:42,040 Speaker 1: it is different, it's a it's a it's a bit 145 00:08:42,040 --> 00:08:44,120 Speaker 1: of a shift for them. They're also focused a lot 146 00:08:44,160 --> 00:08:48,800 Speaker 1: on financial advice. And something that UM has has that 147 00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:51,120 Speaker 1: people have kind of observed is, oh, there are a 148 00:08:51,120 --> 00:08:55,440 Speaker 1: couple of funds now that are only for their advice customers. So, 149 00:08:55,720 --> 00:08:59,280 Speaker 1: you know, is could that be considered counter to Bogel's 150 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:02,200 Speaker 1: kind of eat those say as well. So the point 151 00:09:02,400 --> 00:09:06,440 Speaker 1: Vanguard's whole rais on detra is still lowering costs. It 152 00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:11,640 Speaker 1: has this unusual mutualized ownership structure UM, where it's funds 153 00:09:11,640 --> 00:09:14,800 Speaker 1: owned the firm and therefore the investors in the fund 154 00:09:14,880 --> 00:09:17,320 Speaker 1: zone the firm. So it's different from any other kind 155 00:09:17,360 --> 00:09:19,880 Speaker 1: of East on Wall Street. But UM, you know, it 156 00:09:19,960 --> 00:09:23,199 Speaker 1: has this community of die hard fans called the Bogolheads, 157 00:09:23,440 --> 00:09:25,960 Speaker 1: and they've observed some of this change happening in some 158 00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:28,800 Speaker 1: cases raised in eyebrow, and he talked to us about 159 00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:31,680 Speaker 1: the culture at Vanguard. One of the things that jumps 160 00:09:31,679 --> 00:09:35,120 Speaker 1: out of me, was they won't pay their people that well, 161 00:09:35,160 --> 00:09:38,719 Speaker 1: do they? What's the culture there? Right? So, because the 162 00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:44,040 Speaker 1: firm is so focused on cost cutting and is located 163 00:09:44,080 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 1: away from Wall Street in this suburb of Pennsylvania, Malvern, 164 00:09:49,320 --> 00:09:51,200 Speaker 1: it has a different kind of culture. It has a 165 00:09:51,280 --> 00:09:55,959 Speaker 1: very insular culture. UM. It has a culture of Bogol 166 00:09:55,960 --> 00:09:59,400 Speaker 1: founded the firm UH with this kind of focus on 167 00:10:00,280 --> 00:10:04,840 Speaker 1: ship terminology that comes from Vanguards, named after an eighteenth 168 00:10:04,880 --> 00:10:09,760 Speaker 1: century naval ship. UM. So the staff is called a crew. Um. 169 00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:13,360 Speaker 1: They use a lot of nautical terminology. Uh. They're removed 170 00:10:13,440 --> 00:10:16,679 Speaker 1: from Wall Street and by most people's accounts, a little 171 00:10:16,679 --> 00:10:20,800 Speaker 1: bit less hard charging and sharp elbowed as it can 172 00:10:20,840 --> 00:10:25,160 Speaker 1: be to work at some kinds of competitors. UM. And 173 00:10:25,160 --> 00:10:28,559 Speaker 1: and because the firm is focused on cost cutting, you're 174 00:10:28,600 --> 00:10:31,480 Speaker 1: not going to get the kind of dazzling salaries you 175 00:10:31,520 --> 00:10:35,439 Speaker 1: might be able to elsewhere, because you know, the point, 176 00:10:35,520 --> 00:10:37,199 Speaker 1: so much of the point of working at Vanguard is 177 00:10:37,240 --> 00:10:41,600 Speaker 1: this mission of lowering costs for investors. So to work 178 00:10:41,640 --> 00:10:44,280 Speaker 1: there you kind of have to buy into that mentality. 179 00:10:44,400 --> 00:10:46,840 Speaker 1: And UM. One thing we note in the story is 180 00:10:46,880 --> 00:10:51,360 Speaker 1: that UH typically they pay about a third less than 181 00:10:51,440 --> 00:10:55,240 Speaker 1: other major Wall Street competitors as a result, Well, you 182 00:10:55,240 --> 00:10:58,640 Speaker 1: don't have to pay too much if you're if all 183 00:10:58,679 --> 00:11:02,160 Speaker 1: you're gonna do is I the SMP in a basket 184 00:11:02,320 --> 00:11:05,120 Speaker 1: and hold it until you die, right, which is kind 185 00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:09,160 Speaker 1: of what Jack Bogel used to a spouse. Um. So 186 00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:12,240 Speaker 1: it's interesting. I mean, I don't need much advice for that, Annie, 187 00:11:12,280 --> 00:11:16,120 Speaker 1: I just you know, I just gave it, that's right. 188 00:11:16,320 --> 00:11:21,240 Speaker 1: So that's another interesting thing Vogel. Vogel's real adherents are 189 00:11:21,520 --> 00:11:24,559 Speaker 1: very do it yourself kinds of investors. When you talk 190 00:11:24,640 --> 00:11:27,200 Speaker 1: to people who are in the Bogol Heads community, many 191 00:11:27,240 --> 00:11:31,480 Speaker 1: of them independently came to Bogel's philosophies, read his books, 192 00:11:31,679 --> 00:11:38,280 Speaker 1: and became almost religiously devoted to his principles about making 193 00:11:38,320 --> 00:11:41,160 Speaker 1: sure that you're paying very low fees and just you know, 194 00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:44,880 Speaker 1: buying the market um through index funds, letting it compound 195 00:11:44,920 --> 00:11:48,040 Speaker 1: over times. They're they're very, very focused on that. So 196 00:11:48,120 --> 00:11:52,400 Speaker 1: that's another way that the shift to advice could be 197 00:11:52,520 --> 00:11:56,280 Speaker 1: seen as a little bit different from what Bogel had 198 00:11:56,960 --> 00:12:00,600 Speaker 1: had previously preached. All right, Annie, thank you so much. 199 00:12:00,679 --> 00:12:03,120 Speaker 1: We appreciate that. At a note, Annie and your piece, 200 00:12:03,200 --> 00:12:07,199 Speaker 1: you quote Eric Balcunis and analyso Bloomberg Intelligence. He's got 201 00:12:07,200 --> 00:12:11,240 Speaker 1: a new book out. It's author it's called The Bogel Effect. 202 00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:15,080 Speaker 1: Uh So talks about Bogel's life and influence. So any 203 00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:17,560 Speaker 1: quoted Mr Balcunis in there. Maybe we'll get Eric on 204 00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:19,160 Speaker 1: at some point to talk about his book and his 205 00:12:19,200 --> 00:12:23,319 Speaker 1: thoughts and what he discovered about these huge fund down 206 00:12:23,440 --> 00:12:28,000 Speaker 1: in suburban Philadelphia. Any massive industry reporter for Bloomberg News 207 00:12:28,040 --> 00:12:30,000 Speaker 1: with a big take story today, you can find that 208 00:12:30,080 --> 00:12:34,240 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg dot com, Slash Big Take or ni Space 209 00:12:34,280 --> 00:12:42,280 Speaker 1: Big Take go on the Bloomberg terminal. Interest rates they're rising, inflation, 210 00:12:42,920 --> 00:12:46,560 Speaker 1: it's rising, the economy it's slowing. What is an equity 211 00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:49,760 Speaker 1: investor to do? Hugh Robert's head of analytics at quant Insights, 212 00:12:49,840 --> 00:12:53,320 Speaker 1: joins us. Hugh, I guess i'd love to get your 213 00:12:53,320 --> 00:12:57,239 Speaker 1: thoughts about these markets here, given some of the notable 214 00:12:57,440 --> 00:13:03,040 Speaker 1: headwinds we have out there, What is your take? Well, interestingly, 215 00:13:03,200 --> 00:13:06,760 Speaker 1: on our models, Although you have a lot of scary 216 00:13:06,800 --> 00:13:10,240 Speaker 1: headlines out there, and I totally get the narrative that 217 00:13:10,240 --> 00:13:13,120 Speaker 1: that people are looking at, I've actually just seen a 218 00:13:13,120 --> 00:13:16,480 Speaker 1: bounce which made complete sense on our modeling work. The 219 00:13:16,520 --> 00:13:22,440 Speaker 1: way the pattern of association between smp MASDAK, Russell and 220 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:27,239 Speaker 1: macro factors is as long as the said are relatively 221 00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:30,640 Speaker 1: measured with their rate hiking campaign, and as long as 222 00:13:30,679 --> 00:13:35,200 Speaker 1: that measurement involves you know, none distruction to credit spreads, 223 00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:38,679 Speaker 1: no big risk of music regards to VIX, and actually, 224 00:13:38,679 --> 00:13:41,240 Speaker 1: on current patterning, there's no reason why this has to 225 00:13:41,280 --> 00:13:44,360 Speaker 1: be bad for US equity markets. The key that we're 226 00:13:44,400 --> 00:13:48,120 Speaker 1: really watching is the relationship with credit spreads and also 227 00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:50,120 Speaker 1: the level of real yields. So I think the game 228 00:13:50,240 --> 00:13:54,200 Speaker 1: changing will be if the fends campaign starts to continue 229 00:13:54,200 --> 00:13:57,400 Speaker 1: to see real yields moving higher and even start threatening 230 00:13:57,520 --> 00:14:00,880 Speaker 1: to move into positive territory, then you can have original change. 231 00:14:00,960 --> 00:14:03,800 Speaker 1: But for now, equities are actually doing what they should 232 00:14:03,840 --> 00:14:07,959 Speaker 1: be doing given current map for patterns. YA really ills 233 00:14:08,040 --> 00:14:11,679 Speaker 1: right now are negative fifty three basis points on the tenure. 234 00:14:12,640 --> 00:14:18,960 Speaker 1: Um uh. But the question is um, I guess we 235 00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:22,000 Speaker 1: could still go into a recession and equities could be fine, right. 236 00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:25,360 Speaker 1: I mean, it doesn't always have to mean that we 237 00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:29,560 Speaker 1: have losses on indexes. Because the economy contracts for two 238 00:14:29,640 --> 00:14:32,760 Speaker 1: quarters in a row. I think that's a really fair comment, 239 00:14:32,800 --> 00:14:34,080 Speaker 1: I al really do. And also I think just to 240 00:14:34,120 --> 00:14:36,400 Speaker 1: take a step back on that, I think the Keith 241 00:14:36,440 --> 00:14:40,040 Speaker 1: in now is is that the information narrative is everywhere. 242 00:14:40,120 --> 00:14:44,800 Speaker 1: Everyone knows the dynamic around inflation, even the last residaws 243 00:14:44,840 --> 00:14:47,560 Speaker 1: of tin transitory. I think they're who were still hanging 244 00:14:47,600 --> 00:14:49,800 Speaker 1: in there at the beginning of this year. Comfort in 245 00:14:49,920 --> 00:14:52,480 Speaker 1: Ukraine's gonna killed those guys off, and and people aren't 246 00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:55,840 Speaker 1: looking at transitory at all. But I think the big 247 00:14:55,920 --> 00:14:59,600 Speaker 1: question now to your point, is if it's stagnation that 248 00:14:59,720 --> 00:15:03,480 Speaker 1: could on extaglation and inflation, that's actually not necessarily a 249 00:15:03,520 --> 00:15:08,560 Speaker 1: bad regime for equity market. Um, if it's proper staculation 250 00:15:08,560 --> 00:15:11,080 Speaker 1: while we're talking about a real kind of hard landing 251 00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:15,880 Speaker 1: and inflation, then yes that's different. But at the moment, yes, 252 00:15:15,920 --> 00:15:17,520 Speaker 1: there's lots of reasons if you look at kind of 253 00:15:17,520 --> 00:15:20,400 Speaker 1: credit impulse and what the yield curve is doing to 254 00:15:20,520 --> 00:15:22,960 Speaker 1: to to fear a hard landing, but we're not actually 255 00:15:23,000 --> 00:15:25,920 Speaker 1: seeing there in the data as yet. So again I 256 00:15:25,920 --> 00:15:29,600 Speaker 1: think at the moment there's lots of headline reasons to 257 00:15:29,640 --> 00:15:32,560 Speaker 1: scare equities, but on the analysis that we're seeing at 258 00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:35,880 Speaker 1: the moment, they're largely behaving if they should be all 259 00:15:35,920 --> 00:15:39,080 Speaker 1: right you So, if if I'm as Tom Keenelix say, 260 00:15:39,080 --> 00:15:41,440 Speaker 1: have the courage to be in the market, in the 261 00:15:41,480 --> 00:15:43,320 Speaker 1: equity markets, what are some of the sectors that you 262 00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:47,520 Speaker 1: guys are focusing on these days. Well, the most interesting 263 00:15:47,560 --> 00:15:49,880 Speaker 1: one is that we have the ability to fill of 264 00:15:49,960 --> 00:15:52,760 Speaker 1: look at the standard investment plot. You know, whether an 265 00:15:52,760 --> 00:15:55,640 Speaker 1: asset to booming bust goldilocks, and what's the kind of 266 00:15:55,760 --> 00:15:59,040 Speaker 1: macro regime that it's in and at the moment the 267 00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:02,960 Speaker 1: looking at the index the global index level, the one 268 00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:06,520 Speaker 1: that stands out is that the NASDACK has the strongest 269 00:16:06,520 --> 00:16:11,320 Speaker 1: probity sentsitute to inflation and has a modest but negative 270 00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:15,120 Speaker 1: sentstitute to growth. I it's okay with the weaker growth, 271 00:16:15,640 --> 00:16:18,560 Speaker 1: so that the area really us big tex. I think 272 00:16:18,560 --> 00:16:23,360 Speaker 1: you have to be careful obviously spectech and nonprofitless names, 273 00:16:23,400 --> 00:16:27,280 Speaker 1: but big tech actually has some nice defensive properties here. 274 00:16:27,600 --> 00:16:30,280 Speaker 1: If you believe that we're going to go into extaflationary environment, 275 00:16:31,200 --> 00:16:34,080 Speaker 1: what would you stay away from in general? I'm not 276 00:16:34,120 --> 00:16:37,720 Speaker 1: asking for a specific company that you hate. Yeah, I mean, 277 00:16:37,840 --> 00:16:40,520 Speaker 1: I guess at the end of the logic would obviously 278 00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:42,480 Speaker 1: be cyclicals and we know that a lot of people 279 00:16:42,680 --> 00:16:47,720 Speaker 1: rotated into value trades earlier this year. UM, if you're 280 00:16:47,760 --> 00:16:49,920 Speaker 1: going to get a hard landing, then clude that to 281 00:16:49,920 --> 00:16:54,160 Speaker 1: the obvious play for you. Other people will pointed the 282 00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:57,280 Speaker 1: flattening and the curve in the normal relationships pursued with 283 00:16:57,280 --> 00:16:59,040 Speaker 1: with TEX. There will be a lot of debate I 284 00:16:59,080 --> 00:17:01,680 Speaker 1: think on the whole kind of ros versus final rination. 285 00:17:02,640 --> 00:17:04,920 Speaker 1: For us right here, right now, tech it the best 286 00:17:04,920 --> 00:17:09,359 Speaker 1: place to play. UM. Energy obviously is a classic cyclical blade. 287 00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:11,679 Speaker 1: But you know, I just think one commodity markets are 288 00:17:11,720 --> 00:17:14,320 Speaker 1: doing what they're doing, even if it's a six coal play, 289 00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:17,760 Speaker 1: you wouldn't want to be under exposed to energy just 290 00:17:17,840 --> 00:17:20,439 Speaker 1: because of the underlying commodity shifts and the supply demand 291 00:17:20,440 --> 00:17:23,000 Speaker 1: and alex that are out there at the momentum. So 292 00:17:23,040 --> 00:17:25,320 Speaker 1: I guess that would leave the more classic cyquical things 293 00:17:25,359 --> 00:17:30,760 Speaker 1: that be like consumer discretionary. UM financials is a value play, 294 00:17:30,840 --> 00:17:33,080 Speaker 1: but obviously if rates are going higher, that should be 295 00:17:33,119 --> 00:17:35,800 Speaker 1: doing well. And a lot of financial models on our 296 00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:39,600 Speaker 1: framework are in the regime that they are behaving in 297 00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:43,800 Speaker 1: a kind of in a strong macro trading environment that 298 00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:46,920 Speaker 1: they are lagging slightly. So it probably put consumer discretion 299 00:17:46,960 --> 00:17:49,879 Speaker 1: we have of both XLF and actively here. What do 300 00:17:49,880 --> 00:17:52,679 Speaker 1: you make of the destruction we've seen in the bond market. 301 00:17:52,720 --> 00:17:55,400 Speaker 1: I mean it's been the worst quarter for global bonds 302 00:17:55,960 --> 00:18:01,639 Speaker 1: in my lifetime. Um, what does that mean. It's brutal, 303 00:18:01,680 --> 00:18:03,640 Speaker 1: isn't it. It's really brutal, and I think it's only 304 00:18:03,640 --> 00:18:05,680 Speaker 1: now be challenged by the end um. They've seen the 305 00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:08,080 Speaker 1: last couple of trading days and the two are fighting 306 00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:12,680 Speaker 1: between them. UM. I think the thing is with the 307 00:18:12,720 --> 00:18:15,560 Speaker 1: bond bear market is I think on this occasion now, 308 00:18:15,600 --> 00:18:18,119 Speaker 1: a lot of people are making good money on it. Um. 309 00:18:18,160 --> 00:18:20,680 Speaker 1: I think if you look at the commitment of traders stuff, 310 00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:21,880 Speaker 1: you look at a lot of the kind of cell 311 00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:26,800 Speaker 1: side positioning surveys. You know, it's been easy to make 312 00:18:26,840 --> 00:18:30,879 Speaker 1: a bare res duration argument for some months now. So 313 00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:34,840 Speaker 1: I think performance stats for your typical multi asset fund 314 00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:37,760 Speaker 1: will actually be pretty decent. And yes, the price action 315 00:18:37,880 --> 00:18:41,320 Speaker 1: is horrible, UM, but I don't think everyone will be chronic. 316 00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:45,040 Speaker 1: All right here, thanks so much for joining us. Love 317 00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:47,360 Speaker 1: getting your thoughts there. Hugh Robert's head of analytics at 318 00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:55,320 Speaker 1: quant Insights. All right, let's go to Christie Why because 319 00:18:55,320 --> 00:18:58,320 Speaker 1: I want to talk cyber security. We're seeing that continue 320 00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:03,359 Speaker 1: to be a big issue for individuals, for corporations, for 321 00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:09,000 Speaker 1: states slash countries. Christie Wyatt, CEO and president of Absolute Software, Christie, 322 00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:10,080 Speaker 1: you know, we we kind of look at all the 323 00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:12,520 Speaker 1: news coming out of Ukraine and Russia and you know, 324 00:19:12,640 --> 00:19:17,520 Speaker 1: one of the areas where we're seeing some disputes in cybersecurity, 325 00:19:17,520 --> 00:19:22,119 Speaker 1: cyber warfare. Just give us a sense kind of where 326 00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:26,960 Speaker 1: the average American company or average American is in terms 327 00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:29,480 Speaker 1: of dealing with cybersecurity. It seems like we're still many 328 00:19:29,480 --> 00:19:34,439 Speaker 1: steps behind where the bad guys are. Well, sorry, excuse me, 329 00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:37,680 Speaker 1: I think it's it's a great question, um, but I 330 00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:39,600 Speaker 1: think we're always going to feel that way. I think 331 00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:42,680 Speaker 1: that cyber is one of those risk landscapes where things 332 00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:44,840 Speaker 1: are going to continuously evolve and we're always going to 333 00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:47,320 Speaker 1: feel like we're just a little bit behind. I do 334 00:19:47,440 --> 00:19:51,919 Speaker 1: think that the average enterprise in in the US that 335 00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:55,120 Speaker 1: we see today is pretty well protected, meaning that they've 336 00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:58,359 Speaker 1: been thoughtful about what kind of controls they need in place. 337 00:19:58,480 --> 00:20:01,120 Speaker 1: I think the missing pieces do they have perfect visibility 338 00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:04,439 Speaker 1: of whether those things, the technologies are actually installed in 339 00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:07,480 Speaker 1: working and protecting them, especially now when we know that 340 00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:10,280 Speaker 1: we're all sort of shields up right, we are all 341 00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:14,000 Speaker 1: on standby waiting to see what happens. Yeah, exactly, Um, 342 00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:16,760 Speaker 1: what what should I be doing? What should we all 343 00:20:16,800 --> 00:20:20,719 Speaker 1: be doing? As you know private citizens? M Is there 344 00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:25,639 Speaker 1: anything beyond two step verification? Oh? Gosh, the average the 345 00:20:25,640 --> 00:20:29,480 Speaker 1: average enterprise UM business, so large business will start with them. 346 00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:32,159 Speaker 1: You know, they have between ten and twenty security applications 347 00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:34,480 Speaker 1: running on every computer that there are ways are using. 348 00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:37,800 Speaker 1: So there's a lot more than multi factor authentication, and 349 00:20:37,880 --> 00:20:40,320 Speaker 1: clearly the smaller the organization, the less of those you have. 350 00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:43,320 Speaker 1: I would say there's really three things that you that 351 00:20:43,359 --> 00:20:45,480 Speaker 1: we should be thinking about. First is have we been 352 00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:50,280 Speaker 1: thoughtful about, um, what applications are appropriate for your side 353 00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:53,919 Speaker 1: of business? Multi factor authentication? Encryption? The second thing is 354 00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:56,560 Speaker 1: you know do do I know what I'm going to do? 355 00:20:56,600 --> 00:21:00,600 Speaker 1: Is something that happens successful cyber attack? They're happening with 356 00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:03,720 Speaker 1: phishing emails, things that a user clicks on, and so 357 00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:06,560 Speaker 1: they're bound to happen no matter how much training you're doing. 358 00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:09,480 Speaker 1: Do you know what you're going to do next? Um? 359 00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:11,199 Speaker 1: And that leaves me to my third thing, which is 360 00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:13,159 Speaker 1: just training. Have you talked to your employees. Have you 361 00:21:13,160 --> 00:21:15,359 Speaker 1: talked to the people around to the people you care 362 00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:17,480 Speaker 1: about and said, do you know what phishing looks was? 363 00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:19,640 Speaker 1: Do you know what what bad things look like when 364 00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:21,800 Speaker 1: they're happening? Will you recognize it? And will you know 365 00:21:22,359 --> 00:21:25,720 Speaker 1: kind of what to do? So, I mean, one of 366 00:21:25,760 --> 00:21:27,600 Speaker 1: the things that we've noticed as pandemic is people were 367 00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:30,440 Speaker 1: spending a lot more time working from home, learning from home. 368 00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:34,720 Speaker 1: It seems like there's more and more data information going 369 00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:39,240 Speaker 1: into the clouds. The cloud inherently safe. Do you believe 370 00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:44,480 Speaker 1: I think that. I mean, clearly, we would not see 371 00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:46,440 Speaker 1: the migration of data into the cloud if we didn't 372 00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:48,840 Speaker 1: feel comfortable with the level of security there. I don't 373 00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:53,560 Speaker 1: think that's really where you're risks. Never say never, But 374 00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:56,320 Speaker 1: the overwhelming number of attacks that we see are actually 375 00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:58,520 Speaker 1: happening on the end points. They're happening on the computer 376 00:21:58,600 --> 00:22:01,280 Speaker 1: that the user is using as a way to facilitate 377 00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:03,600 Speaker 1: getting access to the data. And that data could be 378 00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:05,639 Speaker 1: on the cloud, or in the data center, or on 379 00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:08,720 Speaker 1: the computer itself. And so the endpoint is the place 380 00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:11,640 Speaker 1: to focus. It is what people touch, and especially as 381 00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:15,000 Speaker 1: you pointed out, because everybody's at home and so you 382 00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:19,240 Speaker 1: have fewer layers of security available to you. You can't 383 00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:22,520 Speaker 1: there's not network monitoring. These devices are not surrounded. They 384 00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:24,959 Speaker 1: could be sitting on a home network, and so that 385 00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:27,720 Speaker 1: user and those applications you're installing on that device on 386 00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:31,800 Speaker 1: your last line of defense. It does seem like it's 387 00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:36,760 Speaker 1: just gonna be too easy. I mean, I've I, you know, 388 00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:41,800 Speaker 1: watch for this stuff and nonetheless have been either scammed 389 00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:46,240 Speaker 1: or almost scammed like two or three times this quarter. Um, 390 00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:49,520 Speaker 1: they're just so good, they're so good at it. You know, 391 00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:54,680 Speaker 1: I had a for example, I had a call from 392 00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:58,760 Speaker 1: purportedly Verizon. They knew my name, my address, they asked 393 00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:02,520 Speaker 1: for my sociald A uh, you know, the last four 394 00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:05,119 Speaker 1: digits of course, and they knew exactly how much my 395 00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:09,240 Speaker 1: bill was to the penny at that moment. So they 396 00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:11,800 Speaker 1: clearly they have access to data and then they use 397 00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:13,960 Speaker 1: it to get that That's not the kind of attack. 398 00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:15,800 Speaker 1: I guess we're concerned about what do you think the 399 00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:19,239 Speaker 1: Russians will be able to do if they hit us 400 00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:22,920 Speaker 1: as hard as they can. So if someone was going 401 00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:26,440 Speaker 1: to try to disrupt an economy or a community, they're 402 00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:28,640 Speaker 1: going to attack critical infrastructure they're going to go after 403 00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:32,879 Speaker 1: financial services, communications, power, and energy, and so it is. 404 00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:37,480 Speaker 1: You know, it is perhaps um innocuous. It could be 405 00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:39,560 Speaker 1: a we said the breach We thought octo a couple 406 00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:42,199 Speaker 1: of weeks ago, with a support rep or somebody who 407 00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:45,920 Speaker 1: had access to do support controls accidentally clicking or getting 408 00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:48,000 Speaker 1: access to their credentials and then being able to use 409 00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:51,160 Speaker 1: that to do other things. And so it could look 410 00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:53,720 Speaker 1: as simple as what you just described, right. It could 411 00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:55,800 Speaker 1: look like your Verizon bill where they're just trying to 412 00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:59,359 Speaker 1: collect information from you. It could look like, um, somebody 413 00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:02,320 Speaker 1: is asking you to verify a payment that is missing 414 00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:05,960 Speaker 1: or insurance. Internally, within organizations, we see a lot of 415 00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:08,720 Speaker 1: attacks where people are getting approached that looks like an 416 00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:11,000 Speaker 1: executive is asking them to do something. You know, please 417 00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:13,560 Speaker 1: go you know, please go log in and do this thing, 418 00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:16,280 Speaker 1: or please go get this money and sent it over here. Um. 419 00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:19,120 Speaker 1: The thing to remember, whether you're a user at home 420 00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:22,000 Speaker 1: or whether you're an employee trying to do your job 421 00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:24,520 Speaker 1: at work, is they're not really going to call you. Guys. 422 00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:26,240 Speaker 1: It's never going to call you and say hi, I'd 423 00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:27,560 Speaker 1: like to talk to you. Please give me all of 424 00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:30,240 Speaker 1: your data. The easiest thing to do is to say, 425 00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:32,480 Speaker 1: you know, to not respond to the email, to not 426 00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:34,719 Speaker 1: to that call, and then just call them and then 427 00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:37,000 Speaker 1: say did you try to reach me? And and so 428 00:24:37,320 --> 00:24:40,800 Speaker 1: don't click all right, Christie, thank you so much for 429 00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:42,840 Speaker 1: joining us there. Christie Wyatt, the CEO and president of 430 00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:47,639 Speaker 1: Absolute Software, Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. 431 00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:51,240 Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews of Apple Podcasts 432 00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:55,280 Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm 433 00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:59,359 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Matt Miller three. Put on False Whinnie. 434 00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:02,000 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter p T Sweeney before the podcast. You 435 00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:05,040 Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio m