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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Daybake You podcast, available every morning

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Speaker 2: on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen. It's Tuesday, the

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Speaker 2: thirteenth of August. Here in London, I'm Caroline Hepkiff.

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Speaker 3: And I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today. Officials believe an

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Speaker 3: increasingly likely attack on Israel by Iran could come as

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Speaker 3: soon as this week.

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Speaker 2: Ukraine makes further inroads into Russia as European gas prices spike.

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Speaker 3: Plus looking for yet another job, Elon Musk pitches a

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Speaker 3: role for himself in a second Trump presidency during a

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Speaker 3: glitchy conversation on his ex platform.

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Speaker 4: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

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Speaker 3: US officials believe an Iranian attack against Israel may now

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Speaker 3: come as soon as this week. Iran has threatened for

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Speaker 3: days to retaliate after the assassination last month of Hamas

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Speaker 3: leader Ismail Hanaye while on a visit to Tehran. Here's

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Speaker 3: White House National Security Spokesman John Kirby.

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Speaker 5: We share the same concerns and expectations that are Israeli

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Speaker 5: counterpartev with respect to potential timing, here could be this week.

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Speaker 5: We're continuing to watch it very very closely, and it

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Speaker 5: is difficult to ascertain at this particular time if there

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Speaker 5: is an attack by Iran and ords proxies what that

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Speaker 5: could look like, but we have to be prepared for

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Speaker 5: what could be a significant set of attacks.

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Speaker 3: Kirby's comments came as a US carrier strike group and

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Speaker 3: guided missiles submarine head to the region in a bid

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Speaker 3: to deter hostilities. The last time Iran attacked Israel, that

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Speaker 3: fired hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones, almost all of

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Speaker 3: which were intercepted. Officials worry this time could be different,

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Speaker 3: especially if an attack by Iran and its proxies in

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Speaker 3: the region results in many deaths or injuries.

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Speaker 2: Ukraine's military has taken control of twenty eight towns and

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Speaker 2: villages in Russia's Kersk border region, according to an acting

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Speaker 2: regional governor there, Alexey Sminoff, made the comments in a

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Speaker 2: televised me with Vladimir Putin and other defense officials before

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Speaker 2: being abruptly cut off by the Russian leader. It's the

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Speaker 2: largest defensive on Russian soil since the war began two

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Speaker 2: and a half years ago. Vladimir Putin says that they

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Speaker 2: will continue to push troops back.

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Speaker 6: And there is already a response from Russian citizens. This

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Speaker 6: is unanimous support for everyone who is in trouble, support

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Speaker 6: for the army, and an increase in the number of

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Speaker 6: people willing to join our men, the fighters who heroically

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Speaker 6: defend Russia with weapons in their hands.

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Speaker 2: Vladimir Putin speaking their via translator. European energy prices have

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Speaker 2: surged due to concerns about Russian natural gas deliveries via

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Speaker 2: Ukrainian pipelines to Europe. The route represents only about five

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Speaker 2: percent of demand in Europe, but markets have been on

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Speaker 2: high alert for disruption. Despite fighting near a key transit point,

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Speaker 2: sources have told Bloomberg that both sides intend to keep

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Speaker 2: gas flowing to Europe.

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Speaker 3: A high profile discussion between Elon and Musk and Donald

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Speaker 3: Trump started forty minutes late, which the billionaire entrepreneur blamed

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Speaker 3: on a cyber attack without providing evidence. During the two

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Speaker 3: hour exchange on the X platform, which Musk pitched a

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Speaker 3: role for himself in a second Trump White House, the

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Speaker 3: exchange covered topics including illegal immigration and electric vehicles.

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Speaker 7: I think it'd be great to just have a government

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Speaker 7: efficiency commission that takes a look at these things and

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Speaker 7: just ensures that the taxpayer money, the taxpayers are harder

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Speaker 7: money is spent in a good way. And I'd be

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Speaker 7: happy to help out on such a commission.

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Speaker 1: I'd love it if it were. Well, you you're the

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Speaker 1: greatest cutter.

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Speaker 3: Musk endorsed Trump for president last month, part of a

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Speaker 3: shift that has seen the Tesla's CEO publicly embrace right

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Speaker 3: leaning causes and candidates. His company's already both sizeable government contracts,

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Speaker 3: but the entrepreneurs positioning for an even bigger role in

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Speaker 3: Washington if Trump returns to power.

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Speaker 2: Him In the UK, I GO spokeswomen says that the

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Speaker 2: Prime Minister would disagree completely with Elon Musk, who backed

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Speaker 2: a posts online by the Reformed UK Party leader Nigel

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Speaker 2: Farage that Starmer is a threat to free speech. It's

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Speaker 2: the second time that Downing Street has publicly corrected the billionaire,

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Speaker 2: who's been running a live commentary on Britain's unrest. Musk

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Speaker 2: has used his platform to compare the UK to the

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Speaker 2: Soviet Union and spread a conspiracy theory about two tier policing.

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Speaker 2: EU Internal Market's chief tierre Bruton meanwhile publicly posted a

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Speaker 2: letter to MOSC on Monday reminding him that in the

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Speaker 2: context of recent events in the United Kingdom, his platform

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Speaker 2: is required by the region's Digital Services Act to mitigate

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Speaker 2: the amplification of harmful content.

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Speaker 3: While the Prime Minister faces his next test and response

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Speaker 3: to the riots, prosecuting those involved. More than nine hundred

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Speaker 3: arrests have now been made for offenses related to the riots.

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Speaker 3: Member Exchange Walcock has.

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Speaker 1: More swift justice.

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Speaker 8: That's how ministers want to show the British public they

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Speaker 8: are putting an end to a spate of riots. But

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Speaker 8: criminal lawyers say it's impossible for them to take on

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Speaker 8: more work. They point out more than a third of

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Speaker 8: criminal legal aids listeners have left the profession since twenty eleven.

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Speaker 8: Our legal reporter Johnny Browning has seen the crisis firsthand.

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Speaker 1: The justice system is already on its knees. The court

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Speaker 1: backlog is near the record levels it has been. It's

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Speaker 1: well over sixty thousand cases.

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Speaker 8: If Kis Starmer, who used to run the UK's public prosecutions,

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Speaker 8: can navigate the courts, he then faces a crisis in prisons,

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Speaker 8: which are crammed to ninety eight point three percent of

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Speaker 8: capacity in London. James Wilcock Limberg Radio.

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Speaker 2: Now the UK's National Statistics Office may change what time

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Speaker 2: it publishes key economic data. The ONS is starting a

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Speaker 2: review into whether seven am public locreations of GDP, inflation

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Speaker 2: and other data are causing market volatility. Some market participants

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Speaker 2: blame the pre market release time for turbulent trading by

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Speaker 2: making overnight price gaps worse. Now in a moment, we'll

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Speaker 2: bring you more on the Middle East, and also discussed

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump's conversation with Elon mask But another story that

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Speaker 2: we've been reading about this morning, our colleague Kate Krader

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Speaker 2: has the latest edition of her CEO Diet series. It's

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Speaker 2: in Bloomberg Business Sweek. She only sits a few desks

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Speaker 2: away from us, so we get to see her quite often.

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Speaker 3: She runs ask her for recommendations, mainly which I'm sure

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Speaker 3: she tires of but never complains. This week, she's been

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Speaker 3: asking in a very August themed newsletter what executives favorite

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Speaker 3: drinkers while they're away from the office. Some of the

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Speaker 3: examples Jennifer Hyman from Rend the Runway talking about spicy

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Speaker 3: margarita being her favorite drink. Danny Wider from Hexclaud used

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Speaker 3: to be a barman. He enjoys a Vidka martinial though

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Speaker 3: was very specific indications about what kind of olive should

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Speaker 3: go into the martini for that. But very interesting in

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Speaker 3: those people that Kate spoke to, how many of them

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Speaker 3: say they drink very rarely or not at all, and

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Speaker 3: they're highlighting some alcohol free beer choices and some seltzers

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Speaker 3: as well that they choose to relax or to relax

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Speaker 3: with friends.

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Speaker 7: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I really like that story, a really good. I noticed

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Speaker 2: that Pim's wasn't on the list.

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Speaker 1: Not enough British people involved.

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Speaker 4: You get nice, all right.

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Speaker 2: So if you're interested in something a bit lighter this Morne,

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Speaker 2: you can have a read of that.

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Speaker 3: To the Middle East now, where the US believes an

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Speaker 3: Iranian attack against Israel has grown more likely and may

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Speaker 3: come as early as this week. Area News director Rosalind

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Speaker 3: mats And joins us now from More on this Morning

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Speaker 3: to you Ras. What is the US saying now about

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Speaker 3: the risk of an attack.

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Speaker 9: Well, they are saying that their intelligence is also supporting

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Speaker 9: this idea that an attack from Iran or some sort

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Speaker 9: of retaliation from Iran is imminent and could come within

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Speaker 9: days and possibly this week. And it's interesting in fact,

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Speaker 9: they're saying that because we're pretty much two weeks since

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Speaker 9: the killing of this senior Hamas official inter Iran that

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Speaker 9: the Iran blames on Israel. Yet we haven't had that retaliation,

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Speaker 9: even though every single day it seems Iran has been

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Speaker 9: saying we will retaliate for this. But it does seem

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Speaker 9: that now the intelligence is pointing towards this coming very soon,

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Speaker 9: and that Iran does intend to make good and its

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Speaker 9: promise to do something as soon as this week. So

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Speaker 9: certainly everyone seems to be poised for that. The question is,

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Speaker 9: of course, what does that retaliation look like when it comes.

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Speaker 9: Is it just a single attack, direct attack on Israel.

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Speaker 9: Is it also Iran using its proxies around the region

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Speaker 9: to strike at the same time through Hamas, through Hesblah

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Speaker 9: and the Huthi's obviously in Yemen.

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Speaker 1: Is it a multi pronged attack.

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Speaker 9: But either way, what it seems to be is that

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Speaker 9: Iran is also looking for something that's going to be

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Speaker 9: calibrated and not going to set off that broader Middle

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Speaker 9: East war.

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Speaker 2: What diplomatic efforts are being made then to avoid an attack,

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Speaker 2: because obviously last time that Iran attacked it was repelled

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Speaker 2: with the help of Israeli allies.

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Speaker 9: Well, that's right in the US is clear that it

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Speaker 9: is willing to help Israel defend itself. But also you

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Speaker 9: can see the efforts from you know, countries in Europe

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Speaker 9: and the US to sort of press everybody to wait

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Speaker 9: and see how these talks go on to cease far

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Speaker 9: over the war in Gaza, and they are due to

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Speaker 9: happen on Thursday.

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Speaker 1: We don't have a lot of details still about those.

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Speaker 9: Talks, but everyone's dangling that possibility heavily, saying if you

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Speaker 9: just wait, see if we can get a cease five

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Speaker 9: finally in Gaza between Hamas and Israel, and will that

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Speaker 9: be enough to plicate Iran and ward off some sort

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Speaker 9: of retaliation. That seems to be the heavy message coming

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Speaker 9: from those allies.

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Speaker 3: Have we heard anything from Iran through all of this.

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Speaker 9: Well, pretty much every day Iran is saying we need

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Speaker 9: to do something, we will have to retaliate, but they

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Speaker 9: are saying they will retaliate within the boundaries of international

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Speaker 9: law whatever they mean by that, which is again a

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Speaker 9: sense that they're saying they don't want to do anything

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Speaker 9: that further escalates things in the region. They are sort

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Speaker 9: of saying that they're all where of the broader tensions

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Speaker 9: in the region. So the comments seem to be very

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Speaker 9: similar every day, but also of the ilk that.

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Speaker 1: They themselves very much do not want that broader war.

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Speaker 2: We've also heard from the ratings agency Fitch downgrading Israel

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Speaker 2: over the war. So this is also having a financial impact.

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Speaker 1: Well, that's right.

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Speaker 9: I mean, this war in Gaza is having obviously a

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Speaker 9: terrible impact humanitarily on people inside Gaza. It's having an

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Speaker 9: impact on the economy of Gaza, which was already very

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Speaker 9: weak to begin with. It's impacting the West Bank of

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Speaker 9: course for workers who aren't going into Israel anymore. It's

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Speaker 9: having the economic impact on Israel. You can see that

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Speaker 9: in the comments from Fitch last night, particularly concerned about debt.

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Speaker 9: For example, the Dafa set the amount that Israel is

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Speaker 9: spending to fund this war, which obviously it can do

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Speaker 9: for now, but does that have a longer term impact?

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Speaker 9: And are you seeing growth that will start to slow

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Speaker 9: at some point as a result of that also, and

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Speaker 9: so you can see the concerns they You know, if

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Speaker 9: the war is still going next year, you are going

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Speaker 9: to see a more significant impact on the Israeli economy.

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Speaker 9: And that follows of course, Moody's making that ratings downgrade

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Speaker 9: only a few months ago, so certainly as a collective,

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Speaker 9: you know, the sovereign market is taking a close look

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Speaker 9: at this RAS.

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Speaker 3: Another story that we've been keeping, of course, across the

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Speaker 3: latest developments from as well, has been on the Russia

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Speaker 3: Ukraine border. There's been this encursion into Russia which has

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Speaker 3: been a significant step taken by the Ukrainian side as well.

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Speaker 3: What is the latest that we're following on that story,

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Speaker 3: because of course it seems to be a shift in

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Speaker 3: the dynamic of the war there.

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Speaker 9: Well, certainly it's been a bit surprising and to see

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Speaker 9: the Ukrainians do this, and the real question we're all

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Speaker 9: asking ourselves is what is the goal behind this? What

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Speaker 9: is the tactic in doing this taking the fight in

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Speaker 9: a way to Russia? Is the goal to capture and

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Speaker 9: whole territory? Is it to create a buffer zone so

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Speaker 9: that Russian troops can't mass at the Ukrainian border and

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Speaker 9: come over for fresh evans sive is just to show

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Speaker 9: they can. It'd be really interesting in a way to

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Speaker 9: understand what is the motivation behind this, because that will

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Speaker 9: tell us where this might be going. But certainly it's

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Speaker 9: highly embarrassing for the Russian President Vladimir Putin. They've got

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Speaker 9: quite a chunk of the territory in the border area.

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Speaker 9: In fact, he cut off his local governor yesterday on

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Speaker 9: television when he was revealing the extent of it, the

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Speaker 9: number of towns that had been captured and so on,

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Speaker 9: and so obviously, you know, very much at prestige blow

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Speaker 9: at least for Vladimir Putin.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I tho, that was an odd moment. Rozzon, thank

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Speaker 4: you so much for being with us.

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Speaker 2: Our EMEA news director at Roslyn Matheson well on those

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Speaker 2: points around Iran and Ukraine.

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Speaker 4: The challenge to the United States.

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Speaker 2: It was one of the one of the themes that

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Speaker 2: emerged in the Elon Musk conversation with Donald Trump that

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Speaker 2: lasted several hours overnight. Elon Musk also pitched himself for

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Speaker 2: a role in the White House if Donald Trump wins

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Speaker 2: the US presidential election in November. The Republican nominee has

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Speaker 2: been speaking to the World Richest Man in what was

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Speaker 2: billed as an unscripted interview. The conversation on Musk's x platform, though,

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Speaker 2: was really dogged by technical glitches. Joining us Now to

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Speaker 2: discuss this are Breaking News managing edits to Derek Wolbag, Derek.

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Speaker 4: Good morning.

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Speaker 2: What were the most significant moments then, of this two

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Speaker 2: hour conversation. I mean a lot of it went over

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Speaker 2: old ground, But what do you think was the most

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Speaker 2: interesting moment?

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Speaker 10: The most interesting for me probably was the dynamic between

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Speaker 10: Musk and Trump. I mean, look, you've got the world's

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Speaker 10: richest man on one side and you've got the Republican

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Speaker 10: hopeful for president on the other side, and in between

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Speaker 10: are a lot of commonalities.

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Speaker 6: Right.

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Speaker 10: They both are social media company owners for a start.

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Speaker 10: You know, they're both people who feel like they are

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Speaker 10: not accepted by the cultural group that they feel is

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Speaker 10: empower and etc. And so there's a certain amount of

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Speaker 10: that sort of common together. Musk has endorsed Trump, and

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Speaker 10: he's been he's been a very big champion of Trump.

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Speaker 10: So this was very much a conversation among friends and

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Speaker 10: allies in those sorts of settings. It's interesting to see

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Speaker 10: where Musk is pushing Trump. You could hear him pushing

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Speaker 10: Trump to go a little bit further into sustainability than

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Speaker 10: Trump has been willing to go. It's also interesting to

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Speaker 10: see sort of like where they were very allied and

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Speaker 10: sort of going maybe further than Trump might go in

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Speaker 10: an interview with with you know, a sort of a

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Speaker 10: mainstream press organization. So I think that dynamic was really interesting.

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Speaker 10: I mean, look, if Donald Trump wins, Elon Musk has

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Speaker 10: a lot at stake, and if he loses, he had

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Speaker 10: a lot of steak as well. Right, Musk's companies are

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Speaker 10: tremendous US government contract holders. It is particularly SpaceX. At

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Speaker 10: the same point, Musk is also somebody who's whose car company, Tesla,

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Speaker 10: has a lot in terms of tech, text plans and

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Speaker 10: things like that that would be a subject of a

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Speaker 10: US administration. So Musk has, in addition to his own

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Speaker 10: like ideological proclivities and alignments, he actually has a lot

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Speaker 10: at stake in this election. He's gone really really hard

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Speaker 10: on one side, not hedging his bets at all, although

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Speaker 10: he did say in an ex post just minutes ago

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Speaker 10: that he'd pay happy to have Kamalis Harris do the

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Speaker 10: same thing based on some of the conversations in there.

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Speaker 10: I let's say, I doubt sincerely she'll take him up

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Speaker 10: on that offer.

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Speaker 3: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the

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