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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome to episode one to one of

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Speaker 1: the Hammer Territory podcast him your host, Brad Roland, coming

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Speaker 1: to you on a Thursday evening here in early December,

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Speaker 1: and I am joined not by Scott Coleman. We had

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Speaker 1: all kinds of Coleman's going on earlier this week. This

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Speaker 1: time around, it's myself and recovering Steven Tolbert back from

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Speaker 1: the dead. Hello, sir, how are you, Brad?

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Speaker 2: What's up buddy?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's good to be on. It's been like ten

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Speaker 3: days since I've done one of these. I went on

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Speaker 3: a trip and then came back and got immediately sick,

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Speaker 3: which is always fun. But yeah, I was recovering one

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Speaker 3: of those Coleman Squared podcasts. They did a tremendous job.

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Speaker 3: Of course, everybody loves the Colemans, so it's always good

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Speaker 3: to switch it up a little bit, you know, Sean

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Speaker 3: and Scott, I mean, you doing a show, so some

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Speaker 3: mitches stuff talking about Tonight, we're going to talk a

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Speaker 3: little bit about payroll. A couple of things have happened

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Speaker 3: around the sport we'll talk about. But it's always good

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Speaker 3: to be on with you man.

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Speaker 1: Yes, you as well, and if you missed the show

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Speaker 1: or if you're just listening to it for the first time.

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Speaker 1: First of all, thank you for joining us here at

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Speaker 1: hammid Territory. Please subscribe to the show. We are part

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Speaker 1: of the Authorytory Network. Rings and Reviews appreciate it. But

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Speaker 1: also we did have the aforementioned Coleman extravaganza are We

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Speaker 1: have four co hosts on this show. Usually it is

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Speaker 1: pairing up Sean Coleman and Stephen and then me and Scott.

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Speaker 1: We've changed it up a little bit this week, and

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Speaker 1: before that also did a deep dive into Orlando Arcia

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Speaker 1: that was, as you might expect Stephen well received by all.

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Speaker 1: Everyone loves Orlando Arcia. But anyway, that's the last couple

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Speaker 1: of shows on the network. But you sort of allude

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Speaker 1: to it. Most of the show is going to be

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Speaker 1: payroll focused. Not the sexiest topic necessarily, but certainly one

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Speaker 1: that matters when you're building a baseball team and kind

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Speaker 1: of traditionally involved in that. I want to at least note

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Speaker 1: this because there's not a lot of Braves news. Efact,

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Speaker 1: there's like almost no Braves news in the last couple

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Speaker 1: of days, but a lot of attention being paid to

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Speaker 1: the pitching market and free agency right now, because it's

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Speaker 1: gotten pretty expensive. And there was ahead, let's just say,

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Speaker 1: a head turning deal today that was reported and then

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Speaker 1: confirmed by multiple people. Jeff Passing the ESPN reported it first,

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Speaker 1: and he reported a three year, sixty seven million dollars

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Speaker 1: deal for Louis Severino with drum roll please, the A's

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Speaker 1: the team is that does not spend any money whatsoever.

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Speaker 1: That shocked everyone, not necessarily just the A's part, but

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Speaker 1: that was a big part of it, but also a

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Speaker 1: lot of money for sever Reno. And I'll bring it

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Speaker 1: up to you now, Steven, because like the Braves are

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Speaker 1: potentially in this market looking for a picture to add,

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Speaker 1: and I think every single one of these deals so

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Speaker 1: far has come in at the very least at or

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Speaker 1: usually above projections, which is a little scary if you're

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Speaker 1: a team that's trying to get a started picture.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I thought I was having a fever dream. I

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Speaker 3: thought I was still sick some of these, some of

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Speaker 3: these contracts, these pitching contracts have been I have no idea.

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Speaker 2: What's going on.

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Speaker 3: I really I think, let me say this, I think

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Speaker 3: the fact that it's so hard to make trades in

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Speaker 3: July now, because of expanded playoffs, I think teams are

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Speaker 3: putting more emphasis on offseason acquisitions and free agents than

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Speaker 3: they ever have before. I think it's very tough to

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Speaker 3: make trades for impact pitching in July now, and I

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Speaker 3: think that's part of what you're seeing. But why the

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Speaker 3: Oakland A's are spending like twenty two million dollars their

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Speaker 3: next the next highest paid player on their team is

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Speaker 3: five million dollars, Like Severarino makes twenty two million on

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Speaker 3: that team now, the next highest paid guy on that

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Speaker 3: team is five million with Brent Rooker.

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Speaker 1: And they're also moving. You call them the Oakland Aids.

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Speaker 1: They're the secondment at the moment.

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Speaker 3: So the Triple aas Yeah, that that that was the

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Speaker 3: weird That was the weirdest one we've seen. He got

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Speaker 3: an opt out as well, on top of being I

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Speaker 3: guess because they're playing in a Triple A park, they're

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Speaker 3: gonna have to pay more than what other teams are

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Speaker 3: gonna have to pay to convince guys to go play there.

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Speaker 2: I don't know.

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Speaker 3: Maybe that's why he got more than he was projected

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Speaker 3: to get. But yeah, the pitching market is wild, and

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Speaker 3: it matters for the Braves, like you just said, like

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Speaker 3: they're in this market, like we've talked about them with Evaldi,

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Speaker 3: We've talked about them with other guys, you know, and

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Speaker 3: if this is gonna be the market, it's brutal. And

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Speaker 3: we've taught we've said that before that that pitching is

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Speaker 3: the most expensive thing you can go get, especially in

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Speaker 3: free agency. But it's at another level right now, quite honestly,

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Speaker 3: and because you have because it's so hard to make trades,

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Speaker 3: because everybody needs more pitching. Everybody nobody has enough pitching,

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Speaker 3: you know, the prices are just gonna be crazy.

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Speaker 2: And I don't know, it's very possible.

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Speaker 3: The Braves get that. The Braves just get priced out

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Speaker 3: of this market. I don't know if they're gonna pay.

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Speaker 3: You know, we thought we could probably get a Valdi

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Speaker 3: for twenty twenty two million something like that. But Kyle

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Speaker 3: McDaniel had a tweet today where I think, I think

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Speaker 3: it's been like twelve percent up from everybody's projection, Like

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Speaker 3: every picture that's gotten a deal, a multi year deal

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Speaker 3: has been up twelve percent. So I don't know that

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Speaker 3: you're gonna get a allD at twenty two And I

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Speaker 3: don't know how much higher. The bredgser are comfortable going

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Speaker 3: on a guy his age, So it's gonna be very

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Speaker 3: It's gonna be interesting if the trade market picks up,

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Speaker 3: because the free agent market is so expensive. You know,

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Speaker 3: if the Garrett Crochet stuff picks up, there's a there's

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Speaker 3: a couple of interesting names out there that we could

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Speaker 3: you know, that we've talked about before with trades. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: it's it's a wild, wild market right now for.

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Speaker 1: Pitching, it really is. And you know, there are still

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Speaker 1: names out there, but like every time there's one picture

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Speaker 1: coming off the board, the pool also shrinks, so like,

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Speaker 1: you know, just to name the names upside so far,

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Speaker 1: Severino was on the list that we kind of posited, Kacuchi,

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Speaker 1: Frankie Mantas a little bit lower down. He signed a

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Speaker 1: two year deal for relatively big money. Matthew Boyd got

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Speaker 1: two for twenty. Those are all real money contracts of

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Speaker 1: guys who were we potentially on the Braves radar. Before

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Speaker 1: you get to Blake Snell who got the big deal

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Speaker 1: that the five year big deal as well, And there's

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Speaker 1: still names out there, but Alex, you know, you know this, Steven,

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Speaker 1: but Alex tends to not like to focus on one guy.

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Speaker 1: He kind of like tries to find the best value

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Speaker 1: available in a lot of these different boozinity ends up

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Speaker 1: making it's hard to do that when everybody's getting overpaid,

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Speaker 1: Like your value kind of has to move a little bit.

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Speaker 1: If you're or else, you're just gonna like you just

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Speaker 1: sort of alluded to get nobody and you know, plan

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Speaker 1: see and play d come in. Like you know, people

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Speaker 1: ask about Max Reed this week, Like yeah, I mean

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Speaker 1: if I had a guess right now what Max is

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Speaker 1: gonna get, it's gonna be more that than I would

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Speaker 1: have guessed two weeks ago, three weeks ago, which makes

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Speaker 1: probably it less likely to come back to Atlanta, for instance.

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Speaker 1: So like there's always domino effects, even Charlie Morton, Like

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Speaker 1: I think Charlie probably if he pitches this year, is

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Speaker 1: going to pitch somewhere close to home, But he may

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Speaker 1: not sign for the eight million we were dreaming about.

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Speaker 1: If he comes back, it might be twelve now, you

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Speaker 1: know what I mean. It's like it's interesting machinations and

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Speaker 1: we won't preview the whole thing again because we've done

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Speaker 1: this a lot already this winter. But it all impacts

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Speaker 1: the braves that it makes life harder when everybody's getting

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Speaker 1: over paid atways more than we thought that were well.

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Speaker 3: And it also highlights you know, Ronaldo Lopez is making

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Speaker 3: eight million dollars next year. Like that contract looks like

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Speaker 3: it heist. I mean, and I put this in our

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Speaker 3: DMS early.

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Speaker 2: I was talking to Scott.

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Speaker 3: You know, maybe that's the new market inefficiency is converting

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Speaker 3: relievers because you're still getting somewhat reliever prices. You know,

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Speaker 3: Jeff Hoffman's been out there as a potential converted reliever

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Speaker 3: to starter guy. Yeah, and maybe we see Alex go

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Speaker 3: that route again because you can get value where there's

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Speaker 3: not a lot of value to get at the moment,

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Speaker 3: just because prices are so high. So I don't know,

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Speaker 3: I would not be surprised at all if the Braves

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Speaker 3: maybe tried to go that route again. But yeah, and

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Speaker 3: in retrospect, you know, we knew that contract was unbelievably good,

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Speaker 3: but it looks like an absolute steal right now. And yeah,

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Speaker 3: it's you know, any team that signs a free agent

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Speaker 3: pitch right now, you're just yeah, I mean, you're just

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Speaker 3: holding your breath and hoping that they did just you know,

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Speaker 3: blow it out the water. And like you said, the

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Speaker 3: Braves are in this market, so it's going to be

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Speaker 3: fascinating to see what they do.

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Speaker 1: So from here most of the show will be about

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Speaker 1: the Braves payroll, which we've been talking about doing a

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Speaker 1: show on for a while. It was a good time

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Speaker 1: to do that now because there's not a whole not

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Speaker 1: a whole lot going on, so it's to be time

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Speaker 1: to kind of sept stage a little bit. We've alluded

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Speaker 1: to some of these things before, but you know, the

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Speaker 1: terms are all fluid. You know, cash payroll, what contracts are,

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Speaker 1: competitive balance tax considerations, what guys count agains, the combatant,

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Speaker 1: competitive balance tasks. It's all interesting stuff. And I know

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Speaker 1: Scott and I answer to Smell that question the other

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Speaker 1: day about this, but about you know, people always ask us, now,

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Speaker 1: are the Braves going to even go over the luxury tax?

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Speaker 1: Even though they were way over it last year? And

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Speaker 1: there's a theory, conspiracy or otherwise that they might not

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Speaker 1: go over it again this year. All that to say, Steven,

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Speaker 1: I wonder what you think of it, because I think

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Speaker 1: you're a resident of the four of us financial expert

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Speaker 1: in the baseball world. I don't want to put that

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Speaker 1: on you too much, but it is what it is.

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Speaker 1: I think you're the one that's most well schooled in

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Speaker 1: this area of the four of us. What do you

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Speaker 1: make of the situation right now? Because the Braves have

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Speaker 1: a lot of money committed obviously to key pieces, and

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Speaker 1: they're not at the bottom of the league, but they're

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Speaker 1: not the Dodgers either at this moment time, They're not

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Speaker 1: spending absolutely through the roof. I guess we could probably

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Speaker 1: go through like the cash stuff first, if that's the

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Speaker 1: publicly available, easy to consume guys making this added up

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Speaker 1: in a spreadsheet kind of thing. But what do you

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Speaker 1: make of the cash payroll stuff right now for the Braves?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's you know, the Braves have are spending at

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Speaker 3: a level that we've never seen before. I mean, we

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Speaker 3: don't talk about it a lot because you know, spending

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Speaker 3: used to be a really big topic, and I know

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Speaker 3: you talked about it a lot back in the day.

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Speaker 3: Oh yeah, I wasn't on the show, but I remember

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Speaker 3: sending many many tweets about how the Braves had no

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Speaker 3: business running the payroll they were running. You know, they

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Speaker 3: very frequently we would get to a season where they

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Speaker 3: ran one hundred and ten hundred and twenty million dollars

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Speaker 3: payroll despite being in the market that they were in.

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Speaker 3: That is not the case anymore. I mean, the Braves

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Speaker 3: have so if you look at twenty twenty five, the

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Speaker 3: Braves have kind of a big seven. They have seven

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Speaker 3: kind of big contract that I would call that are guaranteed,

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Speaker 3: and that is Chris Sale, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Ronald

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Speaker 3: Coutney Junior, Marcelo Zuno, Usselglass and Sean Murphy. Those seven

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Speaker 3: guys alone make one hundred and thirty million dollars next year.

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Speaker 3: And it wasn't but five years ago where that would

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Speaker 3: have been the Braves entire payroll. And so it's gone

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Speaker 3: up substantially. And you know, there are people that will debate,

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Speaker 3: you know, is it smart to pay a closers sixteen million,

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Speaker 3: you know, Sean Murphy for fifteen million, How smart is that?

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Speaker 3: You can debate all that all you want, but the

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Speaker 3: bottom line is the Braids are spending a substantial amount

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Speaker 3: of money relative to what they used to spend. And

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Speaker 3: they're not quite to the Dodger mets, you know, stratosphere,

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Speaker 3: but they are in that next tier, you know, kind

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Speaker 3: of that five through eight tier in the.

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Speaker 2: League in terms of spending.

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Speaker 3: But if you look at all of their guaranteed contracts

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Speaker 3: right now, for they have fifteen players under guaranteed contracts

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Speaker 3: that have one hundred and eighty million dollars guaranteed. So

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Speaker 3: add in the pre arbitration guys, you know the ad

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Speaker 3: in kelnick at in Dylan Lee, you know, all the

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Speaker 3: pre are the and all the arbitration guys that we

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Speaker 3: just saw get tendered contracts, and then you add in

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Speaker 3: the pre arb guys, the league minimum guys that always

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Speaker 3: fill out your team. The Breads are looking at about

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Speaker 3: one hundred and ninety five million dollars payroll right now

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Speaker 3: as we sit here today.

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Speaker 1: And cash again more time. That's that's always a what keeps.

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Speaker 1: It's easier when you have visuals BECA is an audio medium.

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Speaker 1: That's the cash payroll, which is different than the CBT.

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Speaker 1: Keep that in mind.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, we'll get to CBT here in a minute. That's cash,

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Speaker 3: that's just pure. This is what the braves, oh, the

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Speaker 3: guy for the year. Cash is the easiest to figure out,

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Speaker 3: and for a reference point last year, it's always a

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Speaker 3: little trickier to figure out end of your payroll because

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Speaker 3: when you make trades mid season.

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Speaker 2: The teams very rarely.

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Speaker 3: Report exactly how much money they're paying down on a

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Speaker 3: guy's contract when they trade for him, like the so

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Speaker 3: Layer trade, the Luke Jackson deal. We don't know exactly

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Speaker 3: how much money they ended up spending on either one

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Speaker 3: of those guys. So the end of year cash is

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Speaker 3: a little trickier. But around the Bradys spent around two

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Speaker 3: hundred and thirty million last year in cash for their payroll,

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Speaker 3: so they're around one ninety five now. It was at

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Speaker 3: two thirty around that to end last year, So just

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Speaker 3: on the cash side, it would seem the Brakes have

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Speaker 3: around thirty million to spend if payroll stays the same.

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Speaker 3: Alex did say it's going to go up, but Alex

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Speaker 3: said a lot of stuff in that press.

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Speaker 1: I was gonna say, that's the point we have to

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Speaker 1: make it. He did say that very plainly. If you're

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Speaker 1: just catching up now, I know and everybody listened to

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Speaker 1: every episode. Alex on this same exact interview with the

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Speaker 1: media said that they were not going to change their

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Speaker 1: coaching staff, and they did h He also said they

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Speaker 1: were going to pick up all the options that they

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Speaker 1: did not They declined Traps's options. So he's batting zero

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Speaker 1: on declarative statements on this on that sad call. But

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Speaker 1: I think still if you had to guess, it's not

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Speaker 1: a lock anybody any mean. But when he could have

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Speaker 1: easily not said anything, and he went out of his

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Speaker 1: way to say payroll go up, Now, I don't know

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Speaker 1: what that means near to Steven, he could things could change.

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Speaker 1: I am fond of saying this. Alex is not the

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Speaker 1: person who decides how much money they spend. He has bosses.

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Speaker 1: Terry McGirk is the face of that. There's the it's

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Speaker 1: all changed in the last year plus, but Braves holdings

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Speaker 1: all that stuff. But Terry mcgargus his boss. Alex is

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Speaker 1: not the person writing the check. He's the person as

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Speaker 1: signed in the checks as far as how much you're spending.

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Speaker 1: But he has the number that he has given that

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Speaker 1: he has to fit under. So all that could change.

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Speaker 1: But he did say on the record that it's going

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Speaker 1: to go up, and that's what we kind of have

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Speaker 1: to go off of, at least to some agree.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean up until this last year, like Alex.

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Speaker 3: Anytime Alex lies to the media or lies to the fans.

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Speaker 3: He always does it in a He's always done it

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Speaker 3: in a creative way where he gave kind of a

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Speaker 3: non answer. This last one was the first time where

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Speaker 3: I've actually heard him give up, like straight up just

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Speaker 3: dishonest answers.

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Speaker 1: It was very weird. It was very weird because and look,

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Speaker 1: I know, I'm I'm kind of inner weird because I'm

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Speaker 1: fully in the media when it comes to the Layelhawks.

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Speaker 1: I cover them every day basically and do this whole thing.

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Speaker 1: I deal with a lot of people in that world

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Speaker 1: lesson baseball. But he could have easily not answered the question.

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Speaker 1: And that's what makes it interesting is Alex usually, like Steve,

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Speaker 1: would just allude to an artful Dodger. He'll just kind

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Speaker 1: of like he'll kind of smile at you and be like, hey,

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Speaker 1: I'm not going to answer that kind of thing. And

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Speaker 1: he didn't do that, which is easy. He could have

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Speaker 1: been like, I'll tell you guys in two weeks, you know.

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Speaker 1: So it is a It's been very odd, and I

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Speaker 1: don't think that it's like a sea change for Alex.

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Speaker 1: It might have just been a circumstance or whatever. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's just it was just more odd than

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Speaker 1: anything else as well. Yeah, I'll say there's ways to

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Speaker 1: say nothing.

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Speaker 3: He's the master of of giving you a two thousand

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Speaker 3: word answer that has been no substance in it.

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Speaker 1: We have tried to use some audio on the show

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Speaker 1: from Alex in the past, and it's like, can I

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Speaker 1: even use this? What's the point? That's the point of

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Speaker 1: playing with three people.

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Speaker 2: He's the master at it.

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Speaker 3: And that's what made that end of season press conference

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Speaker 3: so odd is because he didn't do that. He just

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Speaker 3: gave very clear answers that turned out to be not

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Speaker 3: true and we've never seen that from remember before. So, yeah,

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Speaker 3: we don't actually know that payroll's going up. I would

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Speaker 3: be stunned if payrolls going down, though, that would be

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Speaker 3: a whole other conversation. And listen, if that happens, you know,

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Speaker 3: we'll come on here and we'll say it. We're not

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Speaker 3: we're not the Yeah, that's.

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Speaker 1: The whole thing about like the questions we keep getting

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Speaker 1: and I get it right now, they just haven't done

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Speaker 1: that much. And all they have done to this point

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Speaker 1: just to re replay all that is cut money. So

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Speaker 1: fans that want to get mad about that, I get it.

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Speaker 1: Like if they don't do anything, and all they do

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Speaker 1: is cut that we're going to kill them for. That's

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Speaker 1: that's what's going to happen on the show. I would

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Speaker 1: just remind people that most of the league's business has

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Speaker 1: not happened yet, So it's not I don't want to

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Speaker 1: get down that road. But avoiding the tax all these

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Speaker 1: things like, yeah, there's a world where they maybe do

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Speaker 1: that and it surprises everybody, but we're not there yet.

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Speaker 1: I mean, speaking of a tax, you want to lay

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Speaker 1: out the CBT threshold stuff, because that's that's key here

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Speaker 1: in some degree, Like there's a debate across the league

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Speaker 1: and across probably even in that same front office, like

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Speaker 1: how much do we care about this? Where do we

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Speaker 1: drawing the line? The Braves do have this mantra where

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Speaker 1: they Alex kind of said this in the past war

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Speaker 1: like he gets a round number and actual spending from

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Speaker 1: his bosses, which could be massaged in every direction on CBT.

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Speaker 1: So like it's a little bit of uncertainty no matter

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Speaker 1: what happens here, but CBT is a factor you would imagine, Yeah, CBT.

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Speaker 3: So competitive balance tax is what it's called, it's the

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Speaker 3: luxury tax. If you know, if you've heard a different

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Speaker 3: it's it's the same thing, luxury tax CBT. Yeah, that's

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Speaker 3: the way the league sold it to the players in

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Speaker 3: this in the CBA Nego change.

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Speaker 1: Was not calling it luxury.

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Speaker 3: Competitive balance, but that's what it's called, and so it

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Speaker 3: it operates much different than cash. I think most people

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Speaker 3: probably know this Banagia, But just as a kind of

365
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Speaker 3: a primer, so CBT pay roll takes the average annual

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Speaker 3: value of a contract versus the cash amount of a contract.

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Speaker 3: And what that means is if you sign a three year,

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Speaker 3: thirty million dollar contract, but in the first year you

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Speaker 3: make four million, and in the next two years you make,

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Speaker 3: you know, thirteen million, Well the CBT just takes the

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Speaker 3: average of that. It just takes the three year thirty million,

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Speaker 3: so it's ten million dollars a year on average, and

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Speaker 3: that's what it uses to calculate your luxury tax number.

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Speaker 3: And so it operates different than cash payroll, whereas cash

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Speaker 3: just you're just counting up how much actual cash you're

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Speaker 3: paying each player that year. And then the CBT also

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Speaker 3: includes things that cash payroll will never even have to

378
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Speaker 3: think about, the biggest thing being player benefits, you know,

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Speaker 3: just like anybody else out there that has a job

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Speaker 3: that has benefits. Benefits are part of compensation and so

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Speaker 3: they have to be calculated as a salary essentially, and

382
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Speaker 3: so they get counted in your luxury tax tabulation. But

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Speaker 3: we don't really know how much.

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Speaker 2: Teams spend on benefits. There's no way to know that.

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Speaker 2: We'll never know that.

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Speaker 3: You know, sites like Fangrafts or COTS will usually stick

387
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Speaker 3: in like a seventeen million dollar number as a guestimate.

388
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Speaker 3: You know, many mini teams are higher than that, teams

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Speaker 3: are lower than that. So that's why we never know

390
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Speaker 3: exactly how much a team's actual CBT payroll is. There's

391
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Speaker 3: also some weird stuff, you know, when like Ronaldo Lopez

392
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Speaker 3: his contract because the contract because the AAV of the

393
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Speaker 3: contract changed, there's a debit and credit that goes on

394
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Speaker 3: with how your tax is calculated.

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Speaker 2: And even it it does, it.

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Speaker 3: Retroactively for previous years, so it is a little more complicated.

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Speaker 3: But saying all that, and again this is a this

398
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Speaker 3: is an estimate because we don't know for certain. The

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Speaker 3: Brave CBT payroll sits around two hundred and seventeen million

400
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Speaker 3: as we sit here today, around that it could you know,

401
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Speaker 3: probably on this stuff you need to give a plus

402
00:18:51,080 --> 00:18:55,320
Speaker 3: or minus, you know, a five million, maybe eighty million, Yeah,

403
00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:59,240
Speaker 3: margin of error because we don't know. And that's important

404
00:18:59,240 --> 00:19:02,400
Speaker 3: because the first luxury tax threshold where you get into

405
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Speaker 3: penalties is at two hundred and forty one million, so

406
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Speaker 3: you take you to forty one minus seventeen. So the

407
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Speaker 3: Braves have around twenty five million to spend in aav

408
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Speaker 3: and luxury tax money before they get into the first penalty.

409
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Speaker 3: You know, I know you and Scott had this conversation

410
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Speaker 3: because it was a mailback question. I've seen it a

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Speaker 3: ton on Twitter. People have just directly asked, do we

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Speaker 3: think the Braves are duck in the tax?

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Speaker 2: I don't.

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Speaker 3: I personally don't see any way the Braves could possibly

415
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Speaker 3: duck the tax unless they're good, unless you're just gonna

416
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Speaker 3: do trades this offseason, because twenty five million gets spent

417
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Speaker 3: like that trade.

418
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Speaker 1: And trades for cheap guys too. Like we tried to

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Speaker 1: lay it out very briefly on that show, but it

420
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Speaker 1: was like, all right, Gerrik Crochet is one angle, like

421
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Speaker 1: he's really cheap, go do that, but you still have

422
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Speaker 1: other needs and yeah, maybe in a pre Joejamanez getting

423
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Speaker 1: Hurt World. There was an argument I think my friend Eric,

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Speaker 1: our friend Eric Cole made that on the show briefly,

425
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Speaker 1: like you couldn't trade the glaciers to save money if

426
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Speaker 1: you but now that you've lost the manager, you're not

427
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Speaker 1: doing that anymore. That's that's kind of off the table.

428
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Speaker 1: Like there's ways to do it, but it's harder now

429
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Speaker 1: that it's ever been before. Basically, it's for them to

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Speaker 1: cut under it. And as a reminder, like there is

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Speaker 1: there is a argument public versus private about where they

432
00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:20,119
Speaker 1: landed last year in the tax line, but they were

433
00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:23,080
Speaker 1: they were either in the second tier above it or

434
00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:25,600
Speaker 1: the third tier above it, depending where you look. Alex

435
00:20:25,640 --> 00:20:28,480
Speaker 1: maintains it was the second tier. Publicly it's the third tier.

436
00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:30,159
Speaker 1: But no matter what, they were not like just a

437
00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:32,320
Speaker 1: little bit over the tax like last year, they were

438
00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:33,520
Speaker 1: way over the tax line.

439
00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:37,760
Speaker 3: They were like forty forty four million over the first penalty.

440
00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:42,280
Speaker 1: It was not a small figure, so you figure that,

441
00:20:42,480 --> 00:20:44,040
Speaker 1: you know, maybe they don't want to go that high. Again,

442
00:20:44,240 --> 00:20:47,400
Speaker 1: we just don't know, but I we agree, I think

443
00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:49,560
Speaker 1: we'll all be very surprised if they did not go

444
00:20:49,720 --> 00:20:52,439
Speaker 1: into the into the tax at some point, it's just

445
00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:54,520
Speaker 1: how high they want to go in it is really

446
00:20:54,560 --> 00:20:55,280
Speaker 1: what it comes down to.

447
00:20:56,040 --> 00:20:58,520
Speaker 3: Well, remember this that Alex always likes to hold five

448
00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:01,159
Speaker 3: or ten million or in season moves.

449
00:21:01,359 --> 00:21:03,320
Speaker 1: So if you've only seen and you've seen, you've seen

450
00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:05,080
Speaker 1: why too, Like he makes them every year no matter

451
00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:05,400
Speaker 1: what happen.

452
00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:07,840
Speaker 3: Well, all right, so let's say the Braves want to

453
00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:09,680
Speaker 3: stay under the tax. Let's say they want to stay

454
00:21:09,760 --> 00:21:11,600
Speaker 3: under two forty one, and they got twenty five million

455
00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:13,400
Speaker 3: to spend. Well, you want to save five or ten

456
00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:16,080
Speaker 3: for the season, So I mean you got fifteen million

457
00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:18,800
Speaker 3: dollars to spend for the year, entire offseason for everything

458
00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:21,640
Speaker 3: you need. You need a starter, you need one, maybe

459
00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:24,560
Speaker 3: two outfielders. You need a high leverage reliever, you need bench.

460
00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:29,160
Speaker 3: I mean, I just I don't see any way even

461
00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:31,480
Speaker 3: if they wanted to, And I really don't think they

462
00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:33,120
Speaker 3: care that much, to be honest. And that's the other

463
00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:35,320
Speaker 3: thing I want to say is that the tax gets

464
00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:37,520
Speaker 3: talked about a lot because owners like it when the

465
00:21:37,560 --> 00:21:39,560
Speaker 3: tax gets talked about a lot, because it makes it

466
00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:41,919
Speaker 3: seem like more of a deterrent than it really is.

467
00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:44,399
Speaker 3: Like when you look at how much these teams actually

468
00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:47,040
Speaker 3: pay in tax now, like teams like the Mets, who

469
00:21:47,080 --> 00:21:49,240
Speaker 3: blow by it by one hundred and fifty million and

470
00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:51,320
Speaker 3: a half for three or four years, they're paying a

471
00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:54,520
Speaker 3: decent chunk in in tax. But teams like the Braves,

472
00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:57,480
Speaker 3: I mean, you're just not It's really not that much

473
00:21:57,560 --> 00:22:02,359
Speaker 3: money that you're actually being penalized for. So I don't

474
00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:04,439
Speaker 3: think it's as big as a turn as other people do.

475
00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:06,600
Speaker 3: I don't think the Braves care about going past, at

476
00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:09,000
Speaker 3: least the first threshold. There might come a day where

477
00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:11,480
Speaker 3: they try to get under it, but when they're so

478
00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:14,720
Speaker 3: close now and they have clear needs, free agent market

479
00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:16,639
Speaker 3: being what it's being, the fact that Alex likes to

480
00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:20,000
Speaker 3: hold money and spend it in season, I don't see

481
00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:22,920
Speaker 3: any way they stay under two forty one. I think

482
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:24,760
Speaker 3: people are freaking out. I think people like to freak

483
00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:26,720
Speaker 3: out just because all we've seen the Braves do so

484
00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:27,639
Speaker 3: far is cut money.

485
00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:29,080
Speaker 2: And you know.

486
00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:33,840
Speaker 3: Where people are harkening back to the cheap liberty media days.

487
00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:37,200
Speaker 3: Those days are long behind us, I believe. And yeah,

488
00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:39,800
Speaker 3: I don't see any way they're staying below two forty one.

489
00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:44,199
Speaker 1: You may be a great point there about just the

490
00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:47,560
Speaker 1: reality of how punitive these taxes are, and I think

491
00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:50,240
Speaker 1: we agree if you look at it closely, they matter

492
00:22:50,320 --> 00:22:53,080
Speaker 1: to some degree. But there's a reason why Alex brands

493
00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:55,680
Speaker 1: at the way he does and just says, look, there

494
00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:57,119
Speaker 1: is a number of that he's not going to tell

495
00:22:57,200 --> 00:23:00,280
Speaker 1: us ever, that they are he's allowed to spend by

496
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:03,679
Speaker 1: his bosses. And that is a all in number that

497
00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:08,640
Speaker 1: is the tax number plus what you're paying baseball related spending,

498
00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:10,280
Speaker 1: basically is the number that he was the way I

499
00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:12,080
Speaker 1: would frame it and the way he's kind of alluded

500
00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:15,160
Speaker 1: to it. And there are guys every year, just to

501
00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:20,439
Speaker 1: say this out loud, that have lower cash numbers than

502
00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:23,360
Speaker 1: they're CBT numbers and vice versa. It's kind of all

503
00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 1: comes out in the wash, like right now, Olsen, Riley Sale, Acunya, Murphy,

504
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:31,919
Speaker 1: and Ozzy all have CBT numbers that are lower than

505
00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:34,679
Speaker 1: their cash numbers for this year by a little bit

506
00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:36,639
Speaker 1: to some degree. But then there are other guys who

507
00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:41,160
Speaker 1: have higher CBT numbers renald A Lopez, Michael Harris, Mesar Strider,

508
00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:45,760
Speaker 1: Aaron Bummer. There's like not much of a sort of

509
00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:49,440
Speaker 1: expensive guys, but it all kind of levels out relatively speaking,

510
00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:52,800
Speaker 1: it's not exactly going to be even, but it's all

511
00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:55,480
Speaker 1: they know this stuff better than we do publicly. They

512
00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:58,120
Speaker 1: have to know that. But I do think that in general,

513
00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:01,800
Speaker 1: the tax line is discussed, probably more than it should be,

514
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:04,399
Speaker 1: but it's something to talk about. It doesn't matter. Also,

515
00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:07,320
Speaker 1: you lose a little bit on the draft side of things, like,

516
00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:11,200
Speaker 1: for instance, the qualifying offer stuff with Max. If Max leaves,

517
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:14,600
Speaker 1: the Braves will get less compensation than if they hadn't

518
00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:17,399
Speaker 1: paid the tax. That's a small thing. It matters to

519
00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:20,160
Speaker 1: some degree, but that's a that's an example of one

520
00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 1: of the penalties for going over to CBT is that,

521
00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:25,360
Speaker 1: let's just say Max leaves, the draft pick they will

522
00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:27,440
Speaker 1: get back is worse than if they were not over

523
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 1: the text.

524
00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:30,480
Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, and that doesn't matter.

525
00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:34,680
Speaker 3: I mean, it's it's factored into the decision, but yep,

526
00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:36,000
Speaker 3: it doesn't.

527
00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:37,160
Speaker 2: It doesn't matter.

528
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 3: Nearly to the level that it gets talked about in

529
00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:41,399
Speaker 3: my opinion, especially for ninety percent of the teams. I

530
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:44,480
Speaker 3: mean for the Mets and Dodgers. Yeah, they have real

531
00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:46,000
Speaker 3: conversations about these penalties.

532
00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:48,600
Speaker 1: But even then the Mets, it's Steve Colly, he doesn't

533
00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:49,080
Speaker 1: care at all.

534
00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:51,280
Speaker 2: And when you have that much money, who cares?

535
00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:54,159
Speaker 1: Right, And I mean this is a different thing, but

536
00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:59,159
Speaker 1: it's kind of it's a similar argument to team signing

537
00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:02,439
Speaker 1: guys who have qualifying offers attached. It's a little bit different,

538
00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:04,719
Speaker 1: but like there are teams that just don't care, like

539
00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:06,840
Speaker 1: they're just gonna do it, and they'll, yeah, it's a

540
00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:09,560
Speaker 1: factor that you lose some draft picks to do it,

541
00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:11,560
Speaker 1: but like if they want the guy, they're gonna get

542
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:15,320
Speaker 1: the guy, whereas other teams do care and they actually

543
00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:17,720
Speaker 1: prioritize their draft picks, and it's like, okay, not that

544
00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 1: will never ever sign a guy with a qualifying offer attached,

545
00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:22,840
Speaker 1: But it has to kind of be a discount because

546
00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 1: we're factoring in bigger value for those draft picks and

547
00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:27,920
Speaker 1: the draft pool money and all those things. So it's

548
00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:31,480
Speaker 1: all kind of philosophical in the end. And it also

549
00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:33,280
Speaker 1: again comes down to what your boss is willing to

550
00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:37,320
Speaker 1: pay all in it is what it is, anything you

551
00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:40,240
Speaker 1: else you want to add on the payroll logistics, because

552
00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:42,359
Speaker 1: like we can go through it, Like you mentioned the

553
00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:45,040
Speaker 1: Big seven, there's another like mid tier of like five

554
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:47,359
Speaker 1: guys who are making between like seven and ten million

555
00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:50,840
Speaker 1: dollars They have twelve guys basically that make more than

556
00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:53,720
Speaker 1: seven million on the roster right now, and none of

557
00:25:53,760 --> 00:25:57,200
Speaker 1: them are logical trade candidates either, Like they the only

558
00:25:57,240 --> 00:25:59,119
Speaker 1: guy that kind of was was solet they already did

559
00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:02,080
Speaker 1: that body else. Yeah, they could trade o Zoon up,

560
00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:04,480
Speaker 1: but they're probably not going to. Like there are stuff,

561
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:06,160
Speaker 1: there's stuff that they can do. But all the guys

562
00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:08,920
Speaker 1: that are making real money, we have another question. I'll

563
00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:10,880
Speaker 1: ask you in a second about Sean Murphy. But putting

564
00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:13,280
Speaker 1: Murphy to the side, everybody else that's on this it's

565
00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:15,359
Speaker 1: making real money, is kind of like essential to their team.

566
00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:16,880
Speaker 1: They're just kind of locked in.

567
00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:20,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I could go through so like if

568
00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 3: people don't know, like Olson Riley Sale, I'll make twenty

569
00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:27,919
Speaker 3: two million, kun You makes seventeen, a Zuna makes sixteen,

570
00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:31,720
Speaker 3: Iglaciers made sixteen, Murphy makes fifteen. So that's the big

571
00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:33,560
Speaker 3: seven I was talking about earlier. Then that next year,

572
00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:37,080
Speaker 3: like Ross Joey Minez makes nine million, but of course

573
00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 3: that's going to be a nine million.

574
00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:40,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, probably going to be out most of the year.

575
00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:42,800
Speaker 3: And I do I think Sean was the first one

576
00:26:42,840 --> 00:26:44,240
Speaker 3: who said this, I think, but I do think that

577
00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:48,119
Speaker 3: factored a lot in them declining Darnault's eight million dollar option,

578
00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:49,040
Speaker 3: because I agreed.

579
00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 2: I don't think that was the plan originally.

580
00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:53,760
Speaker 3: But when you lose nine million and you got to

581
00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:55,359
Speaker 3: replace it, then you got to find the nine million

582
00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:58,359
Speaker 3: somewhere else. So Amenez makes nine, but it's probably not

583
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:00,959
Speaker 3: going to be around. And then you have Michael Harris

584
00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 3: who makes eight. You have see you have Ronaldo Lopez

585
00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:08,040
Speaker 3: who makes eight. Then you have Pierce Johnson at seven.

586
00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:10,800
Speaker 3: You have Ozzie Albi's at seven, you have Spencer Strider

587
00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 3: at four, you have.

588
00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:15,040
Speaker 1: This is last chief season. By the way, Strider jumps

589
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:17,359
Speaker 1: from four to twenty twenty next year.

590
00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:20,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, and then you have Bummer who renegotiated his deal.

591
00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:23,760
Speaker 3: He's down to three point five million for twenty twenty five.

592
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:26,760
Speaker 3: And then Arcia brings up the rear at two million

593
00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:29,840
Speaker 3: for the last of the guaranteed deals. And that's how

594
00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:32,160
Speaker 3: you get to one hundred and seventy nine one hundred

595
00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:34,080
Speaker 3: and seventy nine million dollars I was talking about earlier.

596
00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:35,200
Speaker 2: Brady's had fifteen guys.

597
00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:37,760
Speaker 3: Those are the fifteen until you get to one seventy nine,

598
00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:39,959
Speaker 3: and then you add in the arbitration guys, the pre

599
00:27:40,119 --> 00:27:41,960
Speaker 3: arc guys, and that's how you get to one ninety

600
00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:45,479
Speaker 3: five total for where the Braves sit now. And if

601
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:48,879
Speaker 3: you look at that number, I think I think total

602
00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:50,800
Speaker 3: that that ends up being when you count the pre

603
00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:52,840
Speaker 3: orb and ARP guys, I think that ends up being

604
00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:56,920
Speaker 3: like twenty two or twenty three guys total that are

605
00:27:56,960 --> 00:27:58,600
Speaker 3: most likely going to be on the team in some

606
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:01,240
Speaker 3: respect or another. So, you know, if you want to

607
00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:03,040
Speaker 3: do if you want to count it by roster spots,

608
00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:04,439
Speaker 3: which I gues is a decent way to do it.

609
00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:06,160
Speaker 2: Actually, yeah, because you.

610
00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 3: Have to earmark a certain amount of money for a

611
00:28:08,080 --> 00:28:10,760
Speaker 3: roster spot. Then you know, the Braids probably have four

612
00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:14,560
Speaker 3: three to four three four or five roster spots they

613
00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:17,600
Speaker 3: need to fill. Some of those will be, you know,

614
00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:20,439
Speaker 3: league minimum guys. Some will be minor league free agents

615
00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:23,520
Speaker 3: that signed for an invite to spring training and then

616
00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:25,159
Speaker 3: make the club as a minor as a as a

617
00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:27,680
Speaker 3: league minimum guy. But some of those will be legitimate

618
00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:30,600
Speaker 3: free agents that they sign or trades. But yeah, that's

619
00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:31,720
Speaker 3: where the Braids sit right now.

620
00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:35,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's just a good primary gain. This stuff's available

621
00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:37,560
Speaker 1: in certain places on the internet if you want to

622
00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:39,360
Speaker 1: fight and look at it more in its sort of

623
00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:41,760
Speaker 1: visual form. But that's where they are. And yeah, they

624
00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:44,160
Speaker 1: had that kind of dead money with Amenez, which is unfortunate,

625
00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:47,200
Speaker 1: but everybody else is a is a key factor, and

626
00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:49,440
Speaker 1: there's obviously some heights on that list and it changes

627
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:51,160
Speaker 1: your year. I mean a lot of these deals are

628
00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:53,240
Speaker 1: kind of flat. But for instance, a lot of the

629
00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:55,719
Speaker 1: deals that Alex has done recently, he's changed it up,

630
00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:57,400
Speaker 1: so they kind of go high and they go high

631
00:28:57,440 --> 00:29:00,280
Speaker 1: and low, like for instance, you mentioned Bummer before Aaron

632
00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:02,240
Speaker 1: goes goes from three and a half up to nine

633
00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:05,520
Speaker 1: and a half. In twenty twenty six, Ronaldo goes from

634
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:08,160
Speaker 1: eight up to fourteen and back down to eight. Kind

635
00:29:08,200 --> 00:29:11,600
Speaker 1: of an interesting roller coaster contract. So anyway, there's there's

636
00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:13,960
Speaker 1: some nuance and creativity. Alex is big into that.

637
00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:17,000
Speaker 3: And by the way, I'll mention this, I think I

638
00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:18,560
Speaker 3: have this. I'm doing this ale Memory. I think I

639
00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:22,120
Speaker 3: have this right. I think this is Ozzie's I think

640
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:26,120
Speaker 3: twenty twenty five is Ozzie's last year of guaranteed money.

641
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:28,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I think he'd become I think he

642
00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:29,200
Speaker 1: has the I.

643
00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:30,560
Speaker 3: Think he gets to the I think you get to

644
00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 3: the club options. Yes, and that's notable to me, especially

645
00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:36,680
Speaker 3: and I was sick when this happened originally. But but

646
00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:38,440
Speaker 3: you know you, I know you guys talked about it

647
00:29:38,440 --> 00:29:42,040
Speaker 3: that Bowman put Ozzie in his potential trade, you know,

648
00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:45,000
Speaker 3: guys to look at for trades. The fact that Ozzie

649
00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:47,040
Speaker 3: is coming to the end of it the guaranteed portion

650
00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:51,479
Speaker 3: of his extension is notable to me because Alex has

651
00:29:51,480 --> 00:29:54,360
Speaker 3: always said that when these guys signed these extensions that

652
00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:56,360
Speaker 3: they're not going to trade him, that that's kind of

653
00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 3: their club policy. But once you get to the option

654
00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:04,840
Speaker 3: portion of these extensions, I do wonder if that philosophy changes,

655
00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:10,040
Speaker 3: and you know, with Ozzie's deteriorating defense, with his deteriorating offense.

656
00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:15,600
Speaker 3: Quite honestly, you know, I do wonder now that you

657
00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:17,680
Speaker 3: know the twenty twenty five will be the last year

658
00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:20,160
Speaker 3: in your team control or the guaranteed portion of his

659
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:24,240
Speaker 3: team control. I don't know, I'm I'm I'm musing out

660
00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:26,800
Speaker 3: loud here, But I do wonder if if maybe we're

661
00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:30,080
Speaker 3: reaching the end of Ozzie Alby's in Atlanta faster than

662
00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:31,560
Speaker 3: some people maybe are thinking about.

663
00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:36,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's possible just most of the defense. But the

664
00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:39,160
Speaker 1: counter is he's still so cheap, even if you factored

665
00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:42,440
Speaker 1: in his decline being permanent. And I'm not sure I'm

666
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:44,800
Speaker 1: ready to get there on offense in particular, but even

667
00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:46,400
Speaker 1: if you thought he was just what he was last year,

668
00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:49,120
Speaker 1: he's still a good value on that. It's seven million

669
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:51,800
Speaker 1: dollars this year, and both and both club options were

670
00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:55,520
Speaker 1: seven million dollars, like if you remember, and that's the one.

671
00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:56,959
Speaker 2: Like that's the craziest.

672
00:30:56,600 --> 00:31:00,800
Speaker 1: We won't really get it now, but Ozzie's tract was

673
00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:04,440
Speaker 1: an all time agent disaster. Basically, it was worse than

674
00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:08,720
Speaker 1: the Acunion do, much worse. Obviously Ronnie is much better.

675
00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:11,200
Speaker 1: But Ronnie at least got to a big shiny number

676
00:31:11,200 --> 00:31:13,080
Speaker 1: of one hundred million dollars that he could say, I'm

677
00:31:13,080 --> 00:31:14,320
Speaker 1: gonna have that for the rest of my life. And

678
00:31:14,360 --> 00:31:18,920
Speaker 1: I was got to like thirty five guaranteed. Yeah. Anyway, Well, and.

679
00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:21,280
Speaker 3: At the time that at the time as he signed that,

680
00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:24,840
Speaker 3: he was legitimately like a top five second basement.

681
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:26,840
Speaker 2: He might not be that anymore, but he at the

682
00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:27,840
Speaker 2: time he signed it, he.

683
00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:30,720
Speaker 1: Was, Yeah, he's still above that average, I think so far. Anyway,

684
00:31:31,000 --> 00:31:32,760
Speaker 1: that's not that's something we've probably dig into at some

685
00:31:32,800 --> 00:31:36,360
Speaker 1: point about like his future because of his defense. Somebody

686
00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:38,800
Speaker 1: actually asked us, I think it was a mailback show recently,

687
00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:42,160
Speaker 1: could he be a DH option starting in twenty six

688
00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:44,360
Speaker 1: I'm like, well, if he hits this year, then maybe because.

689
00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:46,000
Speaker 2: He's gonna he's got he's got to hit better.

690
00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:48,480
Speaker 1: That's where his glove probably should be at that point

691
00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:52,040
Speaker 1: in time. All Right, See, I'm gonna ask you a

692
00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:53,600
Speaker 1: mail that question before we get out of here, because

693
00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:56,080
Speaker 1: if it's payroll related. And it came in this week.

694
00:31:56,800 --> 00:32:00,000
Speaker 1: It came from Jamison, Thanks for the question, and it said,

695
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:02,640
Speaker 1: if you could snap your fingers and take any contract

696
00:32:02,800 --> 00:32:05,160
Speaker 1: off the books for the Braves with no penalty, is

697
00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:07,640
Speaker 1: there a deal that you would want to remove? And

698
00:32:07,680 --> 00:32:10,040
Speaker 1: now this is me saying this to use t Stephen.

699
00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:14,280
Speaker 1: I think there's only two even potential options for this personally,

700
00:32:14,560 --> 00:32:15,440
Speaker 1: But I wonder what you think.

701
00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:17,520
Speaker 3: Well, I know a lot of Braiz fans would say

702
00:32:17,520 --> 00:32:18,680
Speaker 3: Sean Murphy in a heartbeat.

703
00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:21,240
Speaker 1: He was one of the two options that's potential.

704
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:23,640
Speaker 3: Because they're going to pay fifteen million dollars next year,

705
00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:26,880
Speaker 3: and obviously they had William Contrez who could be making

706
00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:27,560
Speaker 3: league minimum.

707
00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:30,560
Speaker 1: Well, take that away. This is not a contrast thing.

708
00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:33,400
Speaker 1: This is only moving forward from now. You have the

709
00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:35,680
Speaker 1: contract and Murphy, just to say out loud, Murphy has

710
00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 1: fifteen million dollars a year for four more years. That's

711
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:41,120
Speaker 1: really the question there. And then the other one, just

712
00:32:41,160 --> 00:32:46,680
Speaker 1: to say, my personal one would be Jojomeniz, who is awesome.

713
00:32:46,840 --> 00:32:49,840
Speaker 1: Joe Medace was often last year. But when you have

714
00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:52,080
Speaker 1: a reliever who has two years eighteen million dollars with

715
00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:54,280
Speaker 1: on their deal and they probably can't pitch for one

716
00:32:54,320 --> 00:32:56,880
Speaker 1: of those seasons in full, you probably would just want

717
00:32:56,920 --> 00:32:58,160
Speaker 1: to take the deal off if you got a choice.

718
00:32:58,200 --> 00:32:59,200
Speaker 1: That's my that's my opinion.

719
00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:02,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, the biggest contract on the books is Riley,

720
00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:06,120
Speaker 3: but I don't he's making his AAV is in such

721
00:33:06,160 --> 00:33:08,360
Speaker 3: a strong spot at twenty two million a year that

722
00:33:08,760 --> 00:33:11,120
Speaker 3: I'm that one doesn't really bother me much.

723
00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:14,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, Rally Ulson are both in that like very low

724
00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:17,560
Speaker 1: twenty million dollars a year AAV and I think, yeah,

725
00:33:17,600 --> 00:33:20,840
Speaker 1: they're not risk free contracts, and Rally's is longer, But

726
00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:23,960
Speaker 1: those guys are so obviously worth more than that, and

727
00:33:24,000 --> 00:33:25,520
Speaker 1: they would get more than that on the market. If

728
00:33:25,520 --> 00:33:28,320
Speaker 1: they hit the market now very obviously, So it's like,

729
00:33:28,840 --> 00:33:30,800
Speaker 1: I don't think you could say take it off, Like

730
00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:32,640
Speaker 1: I get it, there's some risk there, but those guys

731
00:33:32,680 --> 00:33:33,920
Speaker 1: are just really good.

732
00:33:34,280 --> 00:33:38,120
Speaker 3: Yea and A Zuna and Iglesias are basically on one

733
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:42,360
Speaker 3: year deals now. Yeah, so I mean I would have

734
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:45,200
Speaker 3: said before the show, I would have said probably Iglesias,

735
00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:47,160
Speaker 3: but then he went out and was the best closer

736
00:33:47,240 --> 00:33:47,680
Speaker 3: in baseball.

737
00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:48,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, one of the best.

738
00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:51,200
Speaker 1: And there was obviously a time where we all would

739
00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:53,160
Speaker 1: have taken the Ozuna contract away if we could have

740
00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:56,800
Speaker 1: no longer the case. So like, I mean, it's actually

741
00:33:56,840 --> 00:33:59,120
Speaker 1: a testament to the brand's books that there isn't a

742
00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:02,640
Speaker 1: super Slam. I think Amendaz is for me. It's pretty easy. Yes,

743
00:34:02,800 --> 00:34:06,400
Speaker 1: because of the injury, which is he is he he's

744
00:34:06,440 --> 00:34:10,680
Speaker 1: got one more year after Yeah, Ameddas has this year

745
00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:12,719
Speaker 1: nine million dollars twenty five and then another year a

746
00:34:12,760 --> 00:34:15,400
Speaker 1: nine million dollars, So there's a chance that he is

747
00:34:16,040 --> 00:34:18,359
Speaker 1: back to being worth nine million dollars in twenty twenty six.

748
00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:21,680
Speaker 1: But the problem is this year, if he does come back,

749
00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:23,719
Speaker 1: it's gonna be like it's September and he won't be

750
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:24,879
Speaker 1: worth nine million dollars this year.

751
00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:27,000
Speaker 3: So like that, I will I will throw a dark

752
00:34:27,040 --> 00:34:32,520
Speaker 3: horse in here. Okay, Spencer Strider has two Tommy Johnston

753
00:34:32,800 --> 00:34:37,320
Speaker 3: or yeah, yeah, he has two. He has two serious

754
00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:38,520
Speaker 3: elbow surgeries.

755
00:34:38,680 --> 00:34:40,440
Speaker 2: People get mad when you call this last one of

756
00:34:40,480 --> 00:34:41,320
Speaker 2: Tommy john surgery.

757
00:34:41,400 --> 00:34:44,200
Speaker 1: Well okay, uh, just to say it light out there, people,

758
00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:49,920
Speaker 1: Spencer only has four guaranteed years on the contract, right,

759
00:34:50,080 --> 00:34:52,120
Speaker 1: and one of them is this year, which is super cheap.

760
00:34:52,320 --> 00:34:55,160
Speaker 1: He has three big money years and even then it's

761
00:34:55,200 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 1: big money in quotes. He basically has the Luis Sevarino

762
00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:03,320
Speaker 1: contract guaranteed him. So even if you are skeptical, and

763
00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:06,640
Speaker 1: it's fair to be skeptical of Strider on some level

764
00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:08,880
Speaker 1: because of what you just said. Guys have two elbow

765
00:35:08,920 --> 00:35:12,480
Speaker 1: issues like that, that's scary or it's scary. Yeah, the

766
00:35:12,600 --> 00:35:15,640
Speaker 1: counter is if he he was even eighty percent of

767
00:35:15,680 --> 00:35:18,680
Speaker 1: the picture he's been in the past, it's still a bargain. Yeah,

768
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:21,600
Speaker 1: And I don't think the Braves, even with their information,

769
00:35:22,200 --> 00:35:24,200
Speaker 1: would take that deal away if they could, because look,

770
00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:27,000
Speaker 1: if he hits the market in free agency, and by

771
00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:28,400
Speaker 1: the way, he would hit the margin nowity way they

772
00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:29,880
Speaker 1: brought out some r but it was at the end.

773
00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:31,960
Speaker 1: He's still be He's still be an art treasure right now,

774
00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:34,520
Speaker 1: which will probably be cheap. But man, if he was

775
00:35:34,520 --> 00:35:35,920
Speaker 1: available to every team in the league, he'd get a

776
00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:37,960
Speaker 1: lot of money right now, There's no question about it.

777
00:35:38,680 --> 00:35:40,480
Speaker 2: I just don't like owing pictures a lot of money.

778
00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:41,960
Speaker 3: You do that.

779
00:35:42,400 --> 00:35:44,160
Speaker 1: He's the one exception that they've ever done. And I

780
00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:46,640
Speaker 1: think it was because of how crazy outlier he is.

781
00:35:47,200 --> 00:35:49,320
Speaker 3: So that would probably I mean, if you if you,

782
00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:53,000
Speaker 3: if you said you can't pick Jimenez or Murphy, I

783
00:35:53,080 --> 00:35:55,319
Speaker 3: guess Strider. I mean, just because you know they own

784
00:35:56,120 --> 00:35:59,439
Speaker 3: sixty something million dollars over the next four years.

785
00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:03,520
Speaker 1: I think he's oh yeah, the total guarantee portion is

786
00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:06,000
Speaker 1: still I think it's over seventy because he's got four

787
00:36:06,120 --> 00:36:08,759
Speaker 1: this year and that last year that's a club option.

788
00:36:08,840 --> 00:36:13,200
Speaker 1: He's owed like five million, no matter what. Yeah, so yeah,

789
00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:14,239
Speaker 1: but still I think that.

790
00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:17,000
Speaker 3: You know that. But like you said, that's the fact

791
00:36:17,040 --> 00:36:20,000
Speaker 3: that we can't just immediately. I mean, there are tons

792
00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:22,520
Speaker 3: of teams out there that that's not it's not even

793
00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:22,960
Speaker 3: a question.

794
00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:25,480
Speaker 1: And again and they had one of those doing that.

795
00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:28,760
Speaker 1: It just happened to correct itself. One note on Murphy

796
00:36:29,040 --> 00:36:31,279
Speaker 1: because that's the one we will not really get Murphy

797
00:36:31,320 --> 00:36:33,719
Speaker 1: on this podcast. We're too far in that'll that'll be

798
00:36:33,719 --> 00:36:36,160
Speaker 1: a different show. Scott and I did the RC breakdown.

799
00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:38,120
Speaker 1: We will have a Murphy breakdown episode that's going to

800
00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:41,759
Speaker 1: happen this winter. But it's fifteen million a year. But

801
00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:44,160
Speaker 1: just as a reminder to everybody that hates John Murphy

802
00:36:44,200 --> 00:36:45,960
Speaker 1: now for whatever reason, it's fine. He was out very

803
00:36:46,000 --> 00:36:48,680
Speaker 1: good this year. We will acknowledge that in the three

804
00:36:49,440 --> 00:36:53,919
Speaker 1: seasons before this past year, Fangrafts had him being worth

805
00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:58,280
Speaker 1: an average of thirty five point nine million dollars per season.

806
00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:02,120
Speaker 1: For three years, he's making fifteen million dollars. So even

807
00:37:02,120 --> 00:37:04,640
Speaker 1: if he is half of the player he was in

808
00:37:04,760 --> 00:37:07,320
Speaker 1: Oakland and even the first year in Atlanta, he is

809
00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:09,719
Speaker 1: worth a team million dollars a year. So, like I get,

810
00:37:09,760 --> 00:37:12,319
Speaker 1: that's a lot of money. That's that's probably the worst

811
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:14,360
Speaker 1: contract they currently have because of the way he played

812
00:37:14,440 --> 00:37:17,520
Speaker 1: last year. I still believe Murphy is going to be

813
00:37:17,560 --> 00:37:20,120
Speaker 1: good moving forward. But if you didn't, I would understand

814
00:37:20,120 --> 00:37:22,040
Speaker 1: not wanting that contract, but just worth keeping in mind,

815
00:37:22,120 --> 00:37:25,040
Speaker 1: like how good he was and he doesn't have to

816
00:37:25,080 --> 00:37:26,839
Speaker 1: actually be that good to be worth a team million

817
00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:27,279
Speaker 1: dollars a year.

818
00:37:27,640 --> 00:37:31,000
Speaker 3: Well, in catcher defense, it sneaks up on you in

819
00:37:31,120 --> 00:37:31,840
Speaker 3: terms of value.

820
00:37:32,080 --> 00:37:34,879
Speaker 2: But yep, you don't have to hit that much.

821
00:37:35,080 --> 00:37:37,440
Speaker 3: Like we got spoiled because Murphy put up like a

822
00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:40,640
Speaker 3: one thirty WRC plus in his first year with the Braves.

823
00:37:40,960 --> 00:37:42,080
Speaker 2: But like that's not normal.

824
00:37:42,200 --> 00:37:45,080
Speaker 3: Like most catchers post like a one to ten and

825
00:37:45,840 --> 00:37:49,200
Speaker 3: not nothing. Let me rephrase, the best catchers usually post.

826
00:37:49,080 --> 00:37:51,839
Speaker 1: Like a one most most do not do that yet.

827
00:37:51,960 --> 00:37:55,800
Speaker 1: But my poles, one of my ten poles is and

828
00:37:56,040 --> 00:37:58,040
Speaker 1: I will always say this. If you're a recurring listener

829
00:37:58,120 --> 00:38:01,640
Speaker 1: for years now, you will be probably laughing. The baseline

830
00:38:01,640 --> 00:38:04,640
Speaker 1: at catcher is so much lower that people think think

831
00:38:04,680 --> 00:38:08,000
Speaker 1: that it is. It's the vast majority of starting catchers

832
00:38:08,040 --> 00:38:10,080
Speaker 1: in the league are not good hitters. That's just what

833
00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:12,840
Speaker 1: it is, even guys who are. If you can guarantee

834
00:38:12,840 --> 00:38:15,000
Speaker 1: one hundred WRC plus at catcher, you are in the

835
00:38:15,040 --> 00:38:17,640
Speaker 1: top ten at catcher. There's just no question about to probably,

836
00:38:18,880 --> 00:38:19,560
Speaker 1: especially if.

837
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:22,640
Speaker 3: That dude is a plus framer, if he's a plus

838
00:38:22,880 --> 00:38:25,800
Speaker 3: game caller, if he's a plus you know, base thrower.

839
00:38:27,120 --> 00:38:30,280
Speaker 3: So yeah, there's a very very good chance that Murphy

840
00:38:30,320 --> 00:38:32,719
Speaker 3: could be average with the bat next year and still

841
00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:34,400
Speaker 3: exceed fifteen million dollars of value.

842
00:38:34,480 --> 00:38:38,319
Speaker 1: Oh yes, In fact, I will almost guarantee you if

843
00:38:38,360 --> 00:38:41,640
Speaker 1: he if he puts up a ninety five WRC plus

844
00:38:41,719 --> 00:38:44,160
Speaker 1: next year, he'll be worth a teen million dollars or more.

845
00:38:44,880 --> 00:38:46,560
Speaker 1: So Anyway, that's a different conversation for it for a

846
00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:49,480
Speaker 1: different day. That's the one. Well, I should say this,

847
00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:51,279
Speaker 1: Jimenez is the one I would choose. If you give

848
00:38:51,320 --> 00:38:53,800
Speaker 1: me one out right now, I would pick Amendaz. I

849
00:38:53,880 --> 00:38:57,000
Speaker 1: think that Murphy is a very reasonable answer. If you

850
00:38:57,040 --> 00:38:59,040
Speaker 1: don't believe that he's gonna bounce back, that's fine. I'm

851
00:38:59,040 --> 00:39:00,640
Speaker 1: not going to tell you that you're wrong. I'm on

852
00:39:00,680 --> 00:39:02,160
Speaker 1: the other side of that one. But I always get

853
00:39:02,200 --> 00:39:03,799
Speaker 1: it because he was quite bad this year at the plate.

854
00:39:03,840 --> 00:39:06,800
Speaker 1: That's worth acknowledging. But yeah, it's a good sign that

855
00:39:06,880 --> 00:39:08,960
Speaker 1: they don't have any any of the big deals, and

856
00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:11,919
Speaker 1: that looks I think, knock on wood, something can happen

857
00:39:11,960 --> 00:39:13,839
Speaker 1: to Austin Riley or Matt Olsen. They might. They can

858
00:39:13,880 --> 00:39:15,560
Speaker 1: just fall off a cliff and those deals look terrible

859
00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:18,200
Speaker 1: in a year or two. That's possible. It's happened before

860
00:39:18,640 --> 00:39:20,719
Speaker 1: but part of what they did those deals is that

861
00:39:20,800 --> 00:39:23,719
Speaker 1: they're not forty million dollars a year deals. They're making

862
00:39:23,800 --> 00:39:27,239
Speaker 1: twenty two million dollars. And that's weatherable in a way

863
00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:29,680
Speaker 1: that some of these mega deals have not been like

864
00:39:30,120 --> 00:39:32,080
Speaker 1: the you know your Aubut pool Holes deals or whatever,

865
00:39:32,239 --> 00:39:34,240
Speaker 1: some of these like have gotten out of control contracts

866
00:39:34,280 --> 00:39:37,560
Speaker 1: that have just ended terribly. They're not making that much money.

867
00:39:37,640 --> 00:39:39,440
Speaker 1: It's a lot of money, but it's not And these

868
00:39:39,480 --> 00:39:41,600
Speaker 1: guys are in their primes for another what four or

869
00:39:41,640 --> 00:39:42,919
Speaker 1: five years probably by.

870
00:39:42,840 --> 00:39:45,920
Speaker 2: The agent curve, Riley is year twenty seven.

871
00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:49,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, these guys are not old. I don't have their ages.

872
00:39:49,640 --> 00:39:51,880
Speaker 1: Oh yes, I do. Riley's twenty eight as of well

873
00:39:51,920 --> 00:39:54,400
Speaker 1: he actually about start starts age twenty eight seasons, so

874
00:39:54,400 --> 00:39:56,480
Speaker 1: I think he's still forint Sen right now. Olsen's still

875
00:39:56,520 --> 00:39:59,160
Speaker 1: only thirty. Like, those guys are probably not going to

876
00:39:59,200 --> 00:40:02,400
Speaker 1: be if you follow the agent curve tailing off for

877
00:40:03,000 --> 00:40:05,000
Speaker 1: a few more seasons, so I wouldn't worry too much.

878
00:40:05,440 --> 00:40:09,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, and the only other guy, the only guy that

879
00:40:09,560 --> 00:40:15,440
Speaker 3: you could talk about, because well, I'll say this, I'm

880
00:40:15,520 --> 00:40:17,440
Speaker 3: very curious see what they do with Chris Sale in

881
00:40:17,520 --> 00:40:19,399
Speaker 3: the middle of this content, Like they're in the middle

882
00:40:19,440 --> 00:40:21,319
Speaker 3: of this Chris Sale contract right now. They've got one

883
00:40:21,360 --> 00:40:24,040
Speaker 3: more year of guaranteed money, which is twenty twenty five,

884
00:40:24,080 --> 00:40:26,200
Speaker 3: and then they've got a club option. But typically what

885
00:40:26,320 --> 00:40:28,680
Speaker 3: the Braves do is they use the leverage of that

886
00:40:28,760 --> 00:40:32,040
Speaker 3: club option as a way to renegotiate a deal in

887
00:40:32,160 --> 00:40:38,680
Speaker 3: the middle of the season somewhere. They did it with

888
00:40:38,760 --> 00:40:41,560
Speaker 3: Travis Darnault constantly, and I'm guessing that's what they're gonna

889
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:45,520
Speaker 3: do here. And I love what Chris Sale did for

890
00:40:45,600 --> 00:40:48,560
Speaker 3: the Braves, but I am a little bit scared of

891
00:40:48,960 --> 00:40:52,719
Speaker 3: the contract they're gonna give him if he's I just

892
00:40:52,760 --> 00:40:54,799
Speaker 3: don't want this to be like a three year thing.

893
00:40:55,520 --> 00:40:57,080
Speaker 3: I would might if he if he's willing to do

894
00:40:57,200 --> 00:40:59,759
Speaker 3: like a one plus one for you know, the next

895
00:40:59,800 --> 00:41:01,839
Speaker 3: three or four years, the way Charlie did, I'll take

896
00:41:01,880 --> 00:41:04,759
Speaker 3: it all day. Yeah, I'm a little worried there might

897
00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:06,480
Speaker 3: be like a two or three year deal coming at

898
00:41:06,520 --> 00:41:06,879
Speaker 3: some point.

899
00:41:07,800 --> 00:41:10,560
Speaker 1: That's not that's not an unreasonable concern. Right now, it's

900
00:41:10,560 --> 00:41:12,279
Speaker 1: twenty two for this year and a club option for

901
00:41:12,360 --> 00:41:16,120
Speaker 1: eighteen million. Look, he could get hurt together or whatever, but.

902
00:41:16,560 --> 00:41:18,440
Speaker 2: I don't like owing pitchers money.

903
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:21,440
Speaker 1: I think Alex agrees with you. And that's the thing.

904
00:41:21,560 --> 00:41:25,000
Speaker 1: I mean, that's superate relievers. Well right, he's big on relievers,

905
00:41:25,000 --> 00:41:27,239
Speaker 1: and that's a difference that I probably have with him.

906
00:41:27,320 --> 00:41:30,839
Speaker 1: But that's part of the reason across baseball that dating

907
00:41:30,920 --> 00:41:34,160
Speaker 1: back to like April this year, people in the league

908
00:41:34,200 --> 00:41:37,520
Speaker 1: were like, they're not signing Max Freed because Alex has

909
00:41:37,600 --> 00:41:39,319
Speaker 1: not been willing to spend big money for a long

910
00:41:39,360 --> 00:41:40,000
Speaker 1: time on pitchers.

911
00:41:40,800 --> 00:41:42,360
Speaker 2: There's not just has he hasn't done it.

912
00:41:42,760 --> 00:41:44,360
Speaker 3: I don't know how you feel, Brah, There's not a

913
00:41:44,520 --> 00:41:46,040
Speaker 3: chance in hell I would sign Max Freed.

914
00:41:47,239 --> 00:41:50,200
Speaker 1: I am softer on that than you. I get why

915
00:41:50,280 --> 00:41:54,399
Speaker 1: you wouldn't. And honestly, like, if you said, okay, pay

916
00:41:54,520 --> 00:41:59,320
Speaker 1: Max Freed his market rate for six seasons, is that

917
00:41:59,400 --> 00:42:02,360
Speaker 1: a good contract? Probably not. I tend to fall on

918
00:42:02,560 --> 00:42:05,360
Speaker 1: the it isn't my money side of things in a

919
00:42:05,560 --> 00:42:07,680
Speaker 1: non salary cap sport like baseball.

920
00:42:08,239 --> 00:42:10,239
Speaker 3: But yeah, he told me if you told me that

921
00:42:10,320 --> 00:42:13,120
Speaker 3: contract wasn't going to be prohibitive in them doing other stuff,

922
00:42:13,320 --> 00:42:14,000
Speaker 3: that's what I mean.

923
00:42:14,239 --> 00:42:18,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, but you're right, I don't think that they're gonna

924
00:42:18,160 --> 00:42:22,800
Speaker 1: do that. That's the one answer. But also, yeah, I

925
00:42:22,840 --> 00:42:24,719
Speaker 1: would I would hate it less than you. But I

926
00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:26,360
Speaker 1: think if you and I'll say if they do it,

927
00:42:26,400 --> 00:42:29,040
Speaker 1: I'll say this on the show, like, it's not gonna

928
00:42:29,040 --> 00:42:31,120
Speaker 1: be a good contract most likely. How many of the

929
00:42:31,200 --> 00:42:35,200
Speaker 1: big pitching deals have ever been good contracts.

930
00:42:35,440 --> 00:42:38,520
Speaker 2: It's a small handful like Max Scherzer and that that's

931
00:42:38,560 --> 00:42:39,320
Speaker 2: the end of the list.

932
00:42:39,239 --> 00:42:41,200
Speaker 1: That he might be the only one that has ended

933
00:42:41,239 --> 00:42:44,319
Speaker 1: well like and and look on the episodes we talked

934
00:42:44,320 --> 00:42:46,399
Speaker 1: about before this, and we'll I promise we'll stid off soon.

935
00:42:47,480 --> 00:42:49,400
Speaker 1: We've all said that's different points, all four of us.

936
00:42:49,440 --> 00:42:53,960
Speaker 1: I think any deal like that with anyone, take Max's

937
00:42:54,040 --> 00:42:56,239
Speaker 1: take the emotional stuff of Max out of it, because

938
00:42:56,239 --> 00:42:57,839
Speaker 1: that's part of this too. When Brace fans love Max

939
00:42:57,880 --> 00:43:01,680
Speaker 1: and the ship, he's been awesome. But removing that, you

940
00:43:01,800 --> 00:43:05,160
Speaker 1: gotta get value in the beginning of those contracts. Any

941
00:43:05,520 --> 00:43:07,960
Speaker 1: free agent deal you signed for six years, especially for

942
00:43:08,040 --> 00:43:10,200
Speaker 1: the picture but even position players to some degree, you

943
00:43:10,320 --> 00:43:12,959
Speaker 1: gotta be confident those guys are gonna give you huge

944
00:43:13,000 --> 00:43:16,120
Speaker 1: production early in that contract, because by the end they

945
00:43:16,120 --> 00:43:18,560
Speaker 1: are all gonna end badly. You should assume they're gonna

946
00:43:18,640 --> 00:43:20,719
Speaker 1: end badly. On any six year deal like that, for

947
00:43:20,800 --> 00:43:23,319
Speaker 1: a free agent eve. If it's Willia Domas, I will

948
00:43:23,360 --> 00:43:24,920
Speaker 1: say the same thing. If they sign Willy Damas a

949
00:43:24,960 --> 00:43:27,319
Speaker 1: six year deal, I'm gonna say on the on the show,

950
00:43:27,760 --> 00:43:31,560
Speaker 1: you know what, year six probably won't be good. You got,

951
00:43:31,600 --> 00:43:33,040
Speaker 1: you got. You gotta get the value early on, and

952
00:43:33,080 --> 00:43:34,719
Speaker 1: that's what you're going for in the race. And look,

953
00:43:35,160 --> 00:43:38,319
Speaker 1: the Rails are in a position where it makes more

954
00:43:38,400 --> 00:43:40,839
Speaker 1: sense than a lot of teams to do a deal

955
00:43:40,920 --> 00:43:43,160
Speaker 1: like that because you're all in now. You are trying

956
00:43:43,239 --> 00:43:45,879
Speaker 1: to win the World Series every year with the cores

957
00:43:45,920 --> 00:43:49,200
Speaker 1: you have right now. So they're not like you know,

958
00:43:49,239 --> 00:43:51,840
Speaker 1: it's not like the Orioles where you have this super

959
00:43:51,920 --> 00:43:54,600
Speaker 1: long run play like some teams do. The Raves are

960
00:43:54,640 --> 00:43:56,920
Speaker 1: in right now, they are so I get it. But

961
00:43:57,040 --> 00:43:59,960
Speaker 1: you have to be honest with yourself about sign Mac

962
00:44:00,360 --> 00:44:03,719
Speaker 1: or any any big name player for a big time

963
00:44:03,719 --> 00:44:06,680
Speaker 1: of deal like that. It's about the present more than

964
00:44:06,719 --> 00:44:07,120
Speaker 1: the future.

965
00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:09,680
Speaker 2: There's there's no there's no way.

966
00:44:09,960 --> 00:44:14,120
Speaker 3: It's impossible to mitigate all the risk because pitching is

967
00:44:14,200 --> 00:44:16,680
Speaker 3: so important to winning a World Series that you have

968
00:44:16,800 --> 00:44:19,840
Speaker 3: to take a risk somewhere, Like the Chrysale trade was

969
00:44:19,880 --> 00:44:23,080
Speaker 3: a risk, and the Crysale the extension they gave him

970
00:44:23,120 --> 00:44:26,880
Speaker 3: after the trade. Was a risk, but it was the

971
00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:29,279
Speaker 3: type of risk that teams should take with pitching. It

972
00:44:29,400 --> 00:44:30,439
Speaker 3: was a short term risk.

973
00:44:30,520 --> 00:44:31,520
Speaker 2: It was like a two year.

974
00:44:31,520 --> 00:44:33,560
Speaker 1: Risk at Alex. Love the short term risk.

975
00:44:33,760 --> 00:44:35,840
Speaker 3: Loves it and the Red Sox were paying all of

976
00:44:35,880 --> 00:44:38,440
Speaker 3: his salary in twenty twenty four, like it was. It

977
00:44:38,560 --> 00:44:42,359
Speaker 3: was a They minimalize the downside as best they could,

978
00:44:42,440 --> 00:44:44,719
Speaker 3: and that's, in my opinion, that's the best way to

979
00:44:44,760 --> 00:44:47,719
Speaker 3: handle pitching, and the worst way to handle pitching is say, oh,

980
00:44:48,280 --> 00:44:50,560
Speaker 3: you're a thirty one year old with a bulky left

981
00:44:50,600 --> 00:44:53,040
Speaker 3: elbow and you want six years and one hundred and

982
00:44:53,120 --> 00:44:54,160
Speaker 3: seventy million dollars.

983
00:44:54,239 --> 00:44:54,640
Speaker 2: Here you go.

984
00:44:56,080 --> 00:44:58,319
Speaker 3: So I would love them if they would keep doing

985
00:44:58,400 --> 00:45:00,520
Speaker 3: these two year you know, if you' you want's like

986
00:45:00,560 --> 00:45:02,920
Speaker 3: a two year deal they want to do Jeff Hoffman,

987
00:45:02,960 --> 00:45:05,400
Speaker 3: if they want to keep going with relievers, try to

988
00:45:05,440 --> 00:45:08,200
Speaker 3: get some value out of that converting him to starters.

989
00:45:08,280 --> 00:45:13,040
Speaker 1: But I trade for Jordan Montgomery's twenty two and a

990
00:45:13,080 --> 00:45:16,879
Speaker 1: half million dollars player option. That's why that's my new

991
00:45:17,000 --> 00:45:19,560
Speaker 1: Alex projection is a trade for Jordan.

992
00:45:19,760 --> 00:45:20,960
Speaker 2: Let the Diamondbacks pay half of it.

993
00:45:21,000 --> 00:45:22,480
Speaker 3: Because that's what they're probably gonna have to pay to

994
00:45:22,560 --> 00:45:22,800
Speaker 3: move it.

995
00:45:22,920 --> 00:45:25,360
Speaker 1: So even then, even if it was less than that,

996
00:45:25,440 --> 00:45:27,840
Speaker 1: I would probably if you just say take it, I

997
00:45:27,880 --> 00:45:28,640
Speaker 1: would probably take it.

998
00:45:28,760 --> 00:45:31,359
Speaker 3: Those are the type of deals that I love. Ye

999
00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:33,920
Speaker 3: six seven years and one hundred and eighty million for

1000
00:45:33,960 --> 00:45:34,400
Speaker 3: a picture.

1001
00:45:35,280 --> 00:45:38,480
Speaker 1: No, I think we tend to agree with that, all right, Steven,

1002
00:45:38,560 --> 00:45:40,080
Speaker 1: we've gone along of them, be expected to go because

1003
00:45:40,080 --> 00:45:42,360
Speaker 1: that's what's going to happen on this podcast. Anything as

1004
00:45:42,440 --> 00:45:45,040
Speaker 1: you want to say, feel free, if not, tell folks

1005
00:45:45,440 --> 00:45:47,000
Speaker 1: where they can find all of your work if they

1006
00:45:47,040 --> 00:45:48,120
Speaker 1: have not found it already.

1007
00:45:48,440 --> 00:45:50,759
Speaker 2: I'm just happy to be alive. Honestly, when you're sick,

1008
00:45:51,120 --> 00:45:51,799
Speaker 2: you're feeling good.

1009
00:45:51,840 --> 00:45:52,000
Speaker 1: Man.

1010
00:45:52,200 --> 00:45:54,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, when you're sick, you're just like, just give me healthy.

1011
00:45:54,520 --> 00:45:55,239
Speaker 3: That's all I care about.

1012
00:45:55,280 --> 00:45:56,760
Speaker 2: Just give me Helse. I'm just happy to be alive.

1013
00:45:57,000 --> 00:45:58,839
Speaker 2: I think the won Soto news is going.

1014
00:45:58,840 --> 00:46:01,200
Speaker 3: To break in the next four That's what Jeff passing

1015
00:46:01,280 --> 00:46:04,040
Speaker 3: this said before the Winter Meetings, and the Winter Meetings

1016
00:46:04,040 --> 00:46:06,439
Speaker 3: start on Monday. If that happens, the Winter Meetings could

1017
00:46:06,440 --> 00:46:08,400
Speaker 3: be hell of fun because.

1018
00:46:08,120 --> 00:46:12,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, because everyone's saying that, and a man everyone passing

1019
00:46:12,480 --> 00:46:17,319
Speaker 1: only Ken Rosenthal our colleague. Everyone's like when Soto signs floodgates.

1020
00:46:17,920 --> 00:46:20,480
Speaker 2: So we'll see the next the next week or so.

1021
00:46:20,680 --> 00:46:22,680
Speaker 2: Could be really fun. So obviously, if.

1022
00:46:22,560 --> 00:46:24,880
Speaker 3: You're not subscribed, make sure to describe anything that happens

1023
00:46:24,920 --> 00:46:27,600
Speaker 3: with the Braves. If it's notable, if any way, we'll

1024
00:46:27,680 --> 00:46:30,440
Speaker 3: have a show. If it's a serious signing, we'll have

1025
00:46:30,560 --> 00:46:31,600
Speaker 3: an emergency show.

1026
00:46:32,239 --> 00:46:32,439
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1027
00:46:33,080 --> 00:46:35,279
Speaker 3: So yeah, make sure you're subscribed. We appreciate all the

1028
00:46:35,320 --> 00:46:35,879
Speaker 3: support as.

1029
00:46:35,800 --> 00:46:39,359
Speaker 1: Always, absolutely we do. Please check out the entire Foul

1030
00:46:39,520 --> 00:46:41,799
Speaker 1: Territory network. We are Hamber Territory. We come with the break.

1031
00:46:41,840 --> 00:46:45,360
Speaker 1: There are shows on the Dodgers and the Yankees and

1032
00:46:45,480 --> 00:46:47,120
Speaker 1: the Cubs, and I will not list them all because

1033
00:46:47,239 --> 00:46:50,000
Speaker 1: there's too many, but follow them all, but certainly listen

1034
00:46:50,040 --> 00:46:52,800
Speaker 1: to our show. Subscribe. We're on Apple, We're on Spotify.

1035
00:46:52,920 --> 00:46:54,839
Speaker 1: We're on YouTube. Like the videos you're watching it there.

1036
00:46:55,160 --> 00:46:59,480
Speaker 1: Follow us on social media. We're at hammer Territory on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram,

1037
00:46:59,560 --> 00:47:02,080
Speaker 1: et cetera. Threads. I think we're on there somewhere that's

1038
00:47:02,160 --> 00:47:04,839
Speaker 1: probably automated. But hey, there's stuff going on across the board,

1039
00:47:05,000 --> 00:47:07,040
Speaker 1: so check us out. We'll have more later on my

1040
00:47:07,120 --> 00:47:08,560
Speaker 1: exactly sure when the next episode is gonna be, but

1041
00:47:08,640 --> 00:47:10,160
Speaker 1: certainly in the next three or four days we'll have

1042
00:47:10,200 --> 00:47:12,759
Speaker 1: an episode. Stay tuned, We'll see you all. Thanks time,