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Speaker 1: What's up, friends, and welcome into Fantasy Pros the Fantasy

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Speaker 1: Baseball Podcast. I'm Chris Welsh. We got Joe Rico in

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Speaker 1: the house. In the last episode we were talking about

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Speaker 1: players that were rising in ranks as we talk about

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Speaker 1: Fantasy baseball on the early go. Now, who is dropping

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Speaker 1: like bricks? These are ten players that are falling in

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Speaker 1: drafts comparative from twenty twenty five to twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 1: Some of them it's pretty obvious, some of them maybe

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Speaker 1: not so much. The whys, the where's the house? Hopefully

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Speaker 1: we're going to talk about all of that with all

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Speaker 1: of these guys, some hitters and some pitchers. Joe not

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Speaker 1: hard to identify some of the very obvious ones. But

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Speaker 1: this is going to get us an opportunity to talk

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Speaker 1: about why and if we think there's any potential bounce back,

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Speaker 1: as we did in the guys that were rising, just

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Speaker 1: because we're saying, hey, these guys are rising in ranks.

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Speaker 1: Sometimes we'd push back on it, sometimes we would buy it.

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Speaker 1: This is the same thing. Do we buy these players

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Speaker 1: that are falling in drafts or do we think that

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Speaker 1: there is some potential bounce back. I don't know if

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Speaker 1: you've already penpointed a player too that we're going to

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Speaker 1: talk about today that you are going to be back

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Speaker 1: in on.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, there's definitely a few of these guys that I'm

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Speaker 2: going to be interested in as a couple that I

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Speaker 2: think are falling for the right reasons because they are

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Speaker 2: either old or they're no longer as skilled as they

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Speaker 2: once were. But essentially a group of the guys who

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Speaker 2: were disappointments last year, a big hall of disappointing players.

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Speaker 2: Some of them still had some decent value. There's a

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty player, actually two of them that we're going

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Speaker 2: to talk about in here, But overall, these players were

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Speaker 2: the guys that got that Look, we're not mad.

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Speaker 3: We're just disappointed, and that's great.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, just a little disappointed for sure. If you guys

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Speaker 1: happen to be new to the channel, make sure you

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Speaker 1: subscribe on the YouTube. If you like to do the podcast,

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Speaker 1: make sure you subscribe to the podcast and on the inverse.

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Speaker 1: If you haven't jumped over, go to YouTube dot com

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Speaker 1: slash Fantasy pros MLB as we will be putting on

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Speaker 1: the big push for followers, and we were going to

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Speaker 1: have we always kind of have like a prize to

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Speaker 1: it and a good celebration into leading off, so make

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Speaker 1: sure that you're following on the YouTube channel. We'll have

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Speaker 1: lots of ways into the season as well, and don't

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Speaker 1: want you to miss any of it as baseball is

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Speaker 1: going into full throttle mode here at Fantasy Pros, so

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Speaker 1: let's jump right into this. We've got ten names that

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Speaker 1: are guys and we are using nfbc's early ADP. By

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Speaker 1: the way, that's probably the most accurate we actually have.

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Speaker 1: Even dumbe this down to draft champions. I know you've

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Speaker 1: kind of made a case to maybe only focus on

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Speaker 1: draft champions. So there's like twenty six to thirty drafts

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Speaker 1: right around there that is kind of dictating it. It

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Speaker 1: is not the be all, end all using NFBC data,

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Speaker 1: But what I do think is important about it is

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Speaker 1: it is the start of where a lot of places

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Speaker 1: are going to build their ADPs around. Because there's going

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Speaker 1: to be an initial every website out there, we are

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Speaker 1: going to end up having an aggregate ADP here at

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros. All of these sites are going to be

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Speaker 1: based on a ranks and they're going to build kind

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Speaker 1: of this universal first ADP. And this is a really

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Speaker 1: good early marker of it. So I'm saying all this

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Speaker 1: to say, like, don't go ankers about some of the

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Speaker 1: numbers I'm giving you because they're obviously going to change,

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Speaker 1: but it's going to give you a really good range.

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Speaker 1: So that is what we're doing. We're going to base

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Speaker 1: this off of the NFBC Draft Champions ADP as of

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Speaker 1: recording this episode, and I'm also going to be giving

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Speaker 1: you what the aggregate ADP was on Fantasy Pros last season.

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Speaker 1: So I've got both of those numbers, and let's jump

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Speaker 1: into player number one, one of the most prominent players here.

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Speaker 1: And it's a little weird because the next player we're

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Speaker 1: going to talk about actually had a higher twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: five ADP, but this player has a higher twenty six ADP.

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Speaker 1: We're talking about Jackson Merril. Jackson Merrill in twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: six on Draft Champions currently has an ADP of sixty six,

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Speaker 1: so in the mid sixties. So that is going to

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Speaker 1: be roughly it was at the fifth round, fifth, sixth round,

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Speaker 1: somewhere in there, depending what type of format you're looking at,

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Speaker 1: compared to twenty twenty five's ADP Aggregate ADP as of

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Speaker 1: March twenty seventh of twenty seven, So this was a

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Speaker 1: second to third round player in drafts that has moved

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Speaker 1: now to the fifth or sixth round. Really kind of

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Speaker 1: had a tanking year. He hit twenty four homers with

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Speaker 1: sixteen stolen bases with a two ninety average in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty four. This year, injuries, miss time power did kind

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Speaker 1: of bounce back up with sixteen homers, but completely stop

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Speaker 1: stealing bases. Was Jackson merrill batting average dipped by about

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Speaker 1: thirty points. He is clearly falling in drafts. Do you

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Speaker 1: buy or sell the fall for Jackson Merril this year?

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Speaker 2: So I've completed one draft this season, and Jackson Merrill

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Speaker 2: was my fifth round pick. In that draft, it was

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Speaker 2: a fifteen team league. I was picking thirteenth, so at

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Speaker 2: the end of the fifth round there, I think it

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Speaker 2: was seventy third overall. I really do like Jackson Merrill,

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Speaker 2: and I think we can chock up a lot of

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Speaker 2: his problems last year to the fact that he just

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Speaker 2: wasn't healthy starting at the beginning of the year. It

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Speaker 2: was a hamstring issue, and then there was a couple

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Speaker 2: of illnesses. He had a concussion and other illness in July.

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Speaker 2: His ankle got hurt in August. This is kind of

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Speaker 2: what I was saying about Boba Schett heading into last season,

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Speaker 2: that you take the previous you pretty much have to

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Speaker 2: just throw it away. There's nothing I'm going to take

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Speaker 2: forward from this season other than maybe Jackson Merrill was

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Speaker 2: pushing a little bit because he was hurt. His swing

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Speaker 2: percentage went up, and his swinging strike percentage also went up.

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Speaker 2: I think that was just him trying to compensate because

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Speaker 2: he wasn't having as much success as he did as

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Speaker 2: a rookie, and I think a lot of that is injury.

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Speaker 2: Base He still had a thirteen percent barrel rate, which

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Speaker 2: was actually an improvement over the year prior, forty three

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Speaker 2: percent hard hit rate, which was the same as the

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Speaker 2: year prior. A lot of people point to the stole

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Speaker 2: on bases, and again I think it's just injury based.

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Speaker 2: This sprint speed was still in the seventy nine percent.

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Speaker 2: Tile was eighty first percentile in twenty twenty four, So

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Speaker 2: again we're talking about such a young guy here. He's

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Speaker 2: twenty two years old. Still people might say, oh, Jackson

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Speaker 2: Merrily showed us he's not really that great. I would

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Speaker 2: argue this was entirely injury based, and Jackson Merrill probably

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Speaker 2: still should be a third or fourth round player, but

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Speaker 2: you're getting him in the fifth or sixth.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a unique one where we're kind of

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Speaker 1: talking about the negative that this player's falling in drafts,

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Speaker 1: and I buy the fall. But this is why I

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Speaker 1: would buy Jackson Merrill because the cost is there's a

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Speaker 1: lot more upside. You could argue in twenty twenty five

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Speaker 1: based on what he had done. He wasn't even know

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Speaker 1: a twenty twenty player. There was good batting average that

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Speaker 1: you know that second to third round cost. How much

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Speaker 1: more upside? How much more value? Had you already eaten

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Speaker 1: up most of the equity that you could have in

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Speaker 1: Jackson Merrill? So you're buying him at cost. So that

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Speaker 1: question happens to be, well, what does he need to

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Speaker 1: do to a return cost and b beat it?

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Speaker 3: Now?

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Speaker 1: This year, that question, I think is a much more

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Speaker 1: open ended one. If he's going into the sixties. There's

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Speaker 1: a lot of potential in there, especially if you do

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Speaker 1: believe that the you know, the hamstring and the leg

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Speaker 1: injuries and whatnot, we're keeping him from stealing bases and

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Speaker 1: he can return to form. I'm kind of with you.

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Speaker 1: He barreled the ball up more launch ego sweet spots.

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Speaker 1: It's a really kind of weird odd Sometimes you look

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Speaker 1: at some of these stats in Baseball Savant, you're like,

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Speaker 1: what the hell does that even do for you? What

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Speaker 1: is unique about that? I've always called that the Mooki

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Speaker 1: bets stat because that is one where Mooki doesn't always,

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Speaker 1: you know, jump off the board. Not this current version

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Speaker 1: of Mookie. The old one didn't jump off the board

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Speaker 1: with like crazy hard hit numbers or you know, crazy

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Speaker 1: barrel numbers or anything like that. But what he always

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Speaker 1: did is he got the ball in the air. And

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Speaker 1: launch angle sweet spot was you know, his ability to

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Speaker 1: hit the ball to get it in the air, and

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Speaker 1: you would see some of those guys pull it. He

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Speaker 1: doesn't necessarily pull the ball, but he's one of the

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Speaker 1: most elite launch angle sweet spots. He raised his launch angle,

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Speaker 1: he raised his hard hit rate, he walked a bit more,

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Speaker 1: and I think the I think I agree with you.

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Speaker 1: There's a little bit of like throw the season out,

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Speaker 1: but now you get him at a really good cost.

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Speaker 1: So he is falling down drafts and there is risk

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Speaker 1: because of how he tanked last year, and if he

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Speaker 1: becomes a twenty homer five stolen base guy with a

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Speaker 1: two seventy average, he doesn't even recoup the value into

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Speaker 1: the sixties. So there is potential, and this is why

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Speaker 1: he's falling down. But with so many injuries, a solid

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Speaker 1: hitting profile, he hit better on the road, and he

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Speaker 1: kind of equally hit the same on both sides of

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Speaker 1: the first and second half. I think I'm a buyer

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Speaker 1: as well, regardless of the fall that he's having in drafts. Now,

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Speaker 1: the next player that's falling in drafts year over year,

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Speaker 1: he would higher than Jackson Merrill last year and now

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Speaker 1: he's going lower this season. His twenty twenty six Draft

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Speaker 1: champions ADP is seventy. He was going twenty second last year,

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Speaker 1: So that is easy second round pick in whatever format

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Speaker 1: you're playing in. It's Jared Durant. Jared Duran another one

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Speaker 1: of those guys. He kind of fell into the same

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Speaker 1: camp of like I think a lot of people were like, Jared,

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Speaker 1: who do you like Jared Duran or do you like

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Speaker 1: Jackson Merrill? The bat kind of fell apart a little

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Speaker 1: bit this past year, and there's some trade rumors that

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Speaker 1: are flowing out there as well. What do you think

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Speaker 1: about Jared Durant's fall? Do you buy it? Do you

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Speaker 1: sell it? After a sixteen homer, twenty four stolen base,

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Speaker 1: and a about thirty point batting average crater this past season,

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Speaker 1: he's falling, You buy yourself.

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Speaker 3: I think he's a reasonable buy. Still.

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Speaker 2: I think that we may have overestimated the demise of

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Speaker 2: Jared Durant a little bit. He was the nineteenth ranked

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Speaker 2: outfielder last season, which is still very good. He didn't

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Speaker 2: recoup the second round value, but he still gave you

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Speaker 2: a lot of production. Eighty six runs, eighty four ribies,

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Speaker 2: the batting average two fifty six is not what you

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Speaker 2: were hoping for, but it didn't kill you. And when

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Speaker 2: you look below the surface, the barrel rate went from

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Speaker 2: nine point three to nine point seven, hard hit from

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Speaker 2: forty four to forty seven percent.

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Speaker 3: There's not a lot that.

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Speaker 2: I can look at to say that he's a completely

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Speaker 2: different guy than he was last year. If anything, I

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Speaker 2: think maybe we were overestimating his abilities last year because

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Speaker 2: of one massive season that he had in twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 2: I think this is where he probably should be going.

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Speaker 2: Is a fifth, sixth round type of player. Fifteen homers,

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Speaker 2: maybe thirty stolen base twenty five to thirty stolen bases.

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Speaker 2: And even if he does hit two sixty again, which

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Speaker 2: I'm not even conceding because he was two ninety five

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Speaker 2: two eighty five in the years past. Even if it's

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Speaker 2: two sixty, it's not really hurting you so much. With

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Speaker 2: all the accounting stats that he provides in Boston, a

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Speaker 2: lot of talk about he's going to get traded. Don't

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Speaker 2: really see it necessarily. He's still a very viable player.

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Speaker 3: We've been hearing trade rumors for like a year now.

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Speaker 2: Maybe he does get t but I have to assume

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Speaker 2: he's in Boston at this point, and if he is,

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Speaker 2: he's a volume guy who does a lot for you

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Speaker 2: in five categories.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think the piece of knowledge is to

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Speaker 1: know that Jared Duran has fallen year over year in

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Speaker 1: drafts and he is nowhere close to where he was

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Speaker 1: last year in the perception and whatever that value is.

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Speaker 1: So then it turns to us giving you that information,

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Speaker 1: to saying are you interested? I think I am interested,

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Speaker 1: kind of like jack Son Merril. The things uniquely that

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Speaker 1: stand out are the uptick and hard hit. I mean,

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Speaker 1: he had a max evy of one seventeen, which was

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Speaker 1: like the top one percentile of the league. That also

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Speaker 1: was an increase of his average ECX of lassy by

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Speaker 1: a full mile per hour. Now what I like about

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Speaker 1: those two things are he increased his bat speed by

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Speaker 1: a full mile per hour. You're getting into like an

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Speaker 1: elite territory from seventy three point six to seventy four

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Speaker 1: point eight, so you're swinging the bat faster while doing so.

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Speaker 1: There's a very interesting stat on baseball savant that I

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Speaker 1: think you have to You can't singularly look at, but

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Speaker 1: you can start to pair it with guys that barrel

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Speaker 1: the ball and hit the ball hard. It is called

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Speaker 1: ideal attack angle, and though it is still not great,

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Speaker 1: he improved his ideal attack angle while hitting the ball harder.

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Speaker 1: I think there's an adjustment period that ends up happening.

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Speaker 1: And be honest with you, maybe this new version of

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Speaker 1: you know, I swing the bat harder, I hit the

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Speaker 1: ball harder, I'm changing my attack angle. Maybe that's going

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Speaker 1: to kill his ability to be a two eighty five

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Speaker 1: to two ninety five hitter who he was. But I

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Speaker 1: do think there's a possibility that you know, as a

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Speaker 1: two sixty or two seventy hitter, he could become a

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Speaker 1: thirty thirty guy, a twenty twenty guy. My concern I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna throw out there. He hit only like two twenty

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Speaker 1: uh at on the road versus around two eighty at home.

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Speaker 1: So last season the exact number was two twenty seven

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Speaker 1: on the road, too eighty nine at home. So if

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Speaker 1: he were to be traded, is there a road split

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Speaker 1: in a new destination that could affect him negatively? That

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Speaker 1: is definitely a possibility, but the cost is really low.

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Speaker 1: He has fallen in drafts. Maybe he's some one that

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Speaker 1: you're gonna have interest in, and he is way more palatable,

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Speaker 1: and like Jackson Merrill, both of those guys, the equity

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Speaker 1: of the upside much more realistic now compared to these

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Speaker 1: lofty expectations we had last season. We've got a bunch more.

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Speaker 1: We've got some pitchers that are coming up soon. We've

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Speaker 1: got two very popular, polarizing outfielders that are coming up

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Speaker 1: here in just a minute. But we want to tell

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Speaker 1: gambling called one eight hundred gambler All right, polarizing I

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Speaker 1: mentioned there's a little bit of there's some players that

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Speaker 1: bring big topics of discussion. Usually that's hate or love,

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Speaker 1: all in or all out, But there's no denying that

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Speaker 1: O'Neill Cruz is on his way down after this past season,

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Speaker 1: he had an ADP O'Neill did of forty one the

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Speaker 1: year before. According to the aggregate Fantasy Pros ADP, he

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Speaker 1: has now fallen down to seventy five. He also kind

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Speaker 1: of floats around by the way in different spaces, Like

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Speaker 1: you know, it's not uncommon for him to have gone

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Speaker 1: maybe into the seventies in some spots, But the perception

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Speaker 1: has changed because the year prior, Joe he had hit

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Speaker 1: two fifty nine, twenty one homers, twenty two stolen bases.

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Speaker 1: Me I was always a big proponent of him. I'm like,

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Speaker 1: oh my gosh, the barrel percentage is up. The strikeouts

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Speaker 1: they could potentially be down. He's hitting the ball harder. Well,

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Speaker 1: guess what better barrel percentage this year? Better average exit velocity,

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Speaker 1: better max CV. He hit one one hundred and twenty

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Speaker 1: three miles per hour. His hard hit rate was about

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Speaker 1: the same. He walked more, but he hit two hundred.

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Speaker 1: He had twenty homers, thirty eight stolen bases. He had

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Speaker 1: a sub three hundred OVP and he hit two hundred.

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Speaker 1: He is falling down drafts because the batting average now

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Speaker 1: looks like something that is not It's not repairable. So

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Speaker 1: do you buy this fall in drafts? Do you think

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Speaker 1: he should fall more or do you think he's someone

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Speaker 1: that you're going to be picking up.

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Speaker 2: He's incredibly polarizing because the range is picked. Twenty five

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Speaker 2: was the highest he was picked. Twenty five, one point

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Speaker 2: fifteen is the latest. Based on what I'm looking at here,

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Speaker 2: might have even slipped later if you're not playing on

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Speaker 2: the NFBC. I'm going to say something that's probably going

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Speaker 2: to annoy a lot of people here. O'Neil Cruz is

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Speaker 2: not a good baseball player. He is not a good

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Speaker 2: baseball player, and I think the comp is honestly Luke Voight.

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Speaker 2: As a hitter, he's very similar in terms of, you know,

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Speaker 2: he hits the crap out of the ball. In fact,

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Speaker 2: O'Neil Cruz had the highest average exit velocity in Major

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Speaker 2: League Baseball last year. It only takes you so far

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Speaker 2: when you're hitting everything on the ground forty eight percent

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Speaker 2: ground ball rate after forty seven, forty four to forty nine.

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Speaker 3: That's who he is.

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Speaker 2: He chases a decent amount, but he swings and misses

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Speaker 2: a lot. Wherever the pitches are thirteen percent, swinging strike

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Speaker 2: rate fifteen percent last year. The batting average is always

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Speaker 2: going to be a problem. And I think the power

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Speaker 2: even though, yeah, like he hits the ball as hard

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Speaker 2: as anybody in the world, but he's going to be

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Speaker 2: a twenty home run guy if he doesn't elevate and

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Speaker 2: we haven't seen any improvement, and it's been almost four

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Speaker 2: hundred games, fifteen hundred played appearances. Offensively, I think that

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Speaker 2: he is turning into a Luke Voight type. And Luke

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Speaker 2: Foyd was able to elevate the ball a little bit more,

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Speaker 2: played first base as a post of the outfield, and

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Speaker 2: he'll say, Joe, well, he's an outfielder. He's a lot

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Speaker 2: more valuable than a guy like Luke Voight was. O'Neil

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Speaker 2: Cruz had nine negative nine defensive run saved as a

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Speaker 2: shortstop in twenty twenty four in the outfield negative fourteen

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Speaker 2: defensive run saved negative fourteen. He's not doing it on

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Speaker 2: either side of the ball. I think there is a

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Speaker 2: world where O'Neal Cruz is not even in Major League

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Speaker 2: baseball two or three years from now if he doesn't

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Speaker 2: seriously change things. Look at voy won the home run

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Speaker 2: title and he's playing in Korea two years later, and

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Speaker 2: I think that O'Neal Cruz has had in that direction

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Speaker 2: without some serious changes.

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Speaker 1: So it's fair to say that you don't think he's

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Speaker 1: fallen enough.

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Speaker 2: I wouldn't touch him. I wouldn't touch him in the

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Speaker 2: top one hundred and fifty picks.

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Speaker 1: So I don't think he's fallen enough. So this is

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Speaker 1: gonna be the opposite the first two guys were like, yeah, hey,

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Speaker 1: these guys have fallen, but we think there's still some equity.

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Speaker 1: As a resident Oneil Cruz proponent, I don't think he's

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Speaker 1: fallen enough. A guy hitting two hundred with some of

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Speaker 1: the things in his profile, a thirty two percent k percentage,

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Speaker 1: he hit like a hundred against lefties. I mean, there's

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Speaker 1: there's a case that he should be platooned here. He

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Speaker 1: cannot be inside the top one hundred, but I do

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Speaker 1: think there's still potential for improvement. The way he hits

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Speaker 1: the ball, with the impact of how his back to

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Speaker 1: ball skills is, win making impact is absolutely elite in baseball.

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Speaker 1: He also is an elite sprint speedskuy. I mean there

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Speaker 1: was a point where he's leading the league in stolen

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Speaker 1: bases at thirty eight. Also, if you look at his babbitt,

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Speaker 1: part of this is going to be the ground ball thing.

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Speaker 1: But the year prior he had a three forty seven

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Speaker 1: babbit two sixty two. This past year eighty points lower.

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Speaker 1: So if there's some positive regression on that side of

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Speaker 1: his game, you know, you can see the batting average tickup.

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Speaker 1: His XBA was actually two twenty, so it is twenty

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Speaker 1: points higher. But you're just not going to be a

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Speaker 1: serviceable fantasy guy at two twenty. You truly cannot be

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Speaker 1: a fantasy target inside the top one hundred when you're

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Speaker 1: hitting at that level. So he deserves to fall. He

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Speaker 1: should not be in this range. But I do think

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Speaker 1: the skill set, there's the potential for improvement. He he

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Speaker 1: underperformed against off speed pitches. He stopped pulling the ball

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Speaker 1: in the air. If you can pull the ball a

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Speaker 1: little bit more, get it back in the air, and

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Speaker 1: even lower his k percentage to twenty eight percent. Don't

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Speaker 1: be surprised that he's now a two forty hitter. And

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Speaker 1: if he's hitting twenty five homers a forty stolen bases,

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00:18:12,880 --> 00:18:15,399
Speaker 1: he is viable, but not at this cost, so he

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Speaker 1: does deserve to be lower. I'm obviously more of an

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Speaker 1: oneal guy than you. You say he's going to be

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Speaker 1: out of baseball in a couple of years. But you know,

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Speaker 1: like if you can't go inside the top one hundred.

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Speaker 2: If he doesn't start raising that ball, he could hit

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Speaker 2: it two hundred miles an hour. If it's on the

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Speaker 2: ground every time, it's not helping anybody.

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Speaker 1: I'd be like that two hundred miles an hour is

398
00:18:34,920 --> 00:18:36,320
Speaker 1: not going to help. I mean, two hundred might help

399
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Speaker 1: him a little bit. He might to start hitting it

400
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Speaker 1: two hundred miles an hour and then we could find

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Speaker 1: some improvement from one polarizing player to another. This is

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Speaker 1: the Joe Pi's a Pia Special Michael Harris. Michael Harris

403
00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:50,600
Speaker 1: gets lots of conversation because he last year was a

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Speaker 1: top fifty guy. His Fantasy Pros aggregate ADP across multiple

405
00:18:54,320 --> 00:18:57,600
Speaker 1: sites right before the season started was forty nine, so

406
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Speaker 1: top fifty player. This year he is barely inside the

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Speaker 1: top one hundred. Uh, the Draft Champions ADP is ninety six,

408
00:19:05,480 --> 00:19:09,000
Speaker 1: so he just sinks sneaks in. He actually improved on

409
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Speaker 1: his counting stats this past year. The year prior sixteen homers,

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Speaker 1: ten stolen bases with a two sixty four average. He

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Speaker 1: was a twenty twenty guy this year and it was

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Speaker 1: a big improvement. And I believe in the second half

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Speaker 1: because let me get the actual numbers. Yeah, he hit

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Speaker 1: two ten in the first half, two ninety nine in

415
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Speaker 1: the second half. In two hundred and sixty four at bats.

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Speaker 1: He hit fourteen homers in the second half. So that's

417
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Speaker 1: where it all came to. A lot of his profile honestly,

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Speaker 1: almost looks absolutely identical. His XBA is a little bit higher,

419
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Speaker 1: but he's falling in drafts. Is this and a proper fall?

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Speaker 1: Do you think he should fall more? And is he

421
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Speaker 1: someone you're interested in? Michael Harris.

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Speaker 2: The differentiating factor with him and Oial Crews, because they

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00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:52,920
Speaker 2: are very similar in terms of the profile, is that

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Speaker 2: Michael Harris will hit you to forty two to fifty

425
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Speaker 2: even if there are some shortcomings in him as a hitter.

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Speaker 2: He chases like we could probably get him to Chase

427
00:20:00,440 --> 00:20:02,679
Speaker 2: Welsh if we threw even a half decent pitch. He

428
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Speaker 2: chases forty two percent of the time. Only yiner Diez

429
00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:09,480
Speaker 2: has a higher O swing chase rate in all of baseball.

430
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Speaker 2: But he's shown us that the floor, at least if

431
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Speaker 2: he plays, you know, most of a season, is around

432
00:20:14,800 --> 00:20:17,880
Speaker 2: twenty twenty. And even this past year he hit two fifty.

433
00:20:18,280 --> 00:20:21,240
Speaker 2: So even though this was a horrible bottoming out season

434
00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:24,080
Speaker 2: for him, nine percent barrel rate, forty three percent hard

435
00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:27,800
Speaker 2: hit twenty twenty season, only a twelve percent swinging strike rate,

436
00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:31,280
Speaker 2: which isn't terrible, I'm willing to buy back in and

437
00:20:31,280 --> 00:20:33,000
Speaker 2: I'm willing to have egg on my face here as well,

438
00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:35,399
Speaker 2: because there's definitely a possibility that he is just not

439
00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:38,080
Speaker 2: as great as we were thinking initially. But if you're

440
00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:40,679
Speaker 2: getting him around pick one hundred, somewhere in that range

441
00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:43,960
Speaker 2: ninet eighty to one hundred, I think it is worth

442
00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:45,880
Speaker 2: it for the hope that he can play a whole

443
00:20:45,880 --> 00:20:48,120
Speaker 2: season rebound to a twenty five to twenty five guy

444
00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:49,840
Speaker 2: been saying it for three years now. I feel like

445
00:20:49,840 --> 00:20:51,359
Speaker 2: I'm hitting my head against the wall. But the Braves

446
00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:53,960
Speaker 2: should have a better offensive season in twenty twenty six

447
00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:55,600
Speaker 2: and one we've seen the last couple of years healthy

448
00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:57,840
Speaker 2: Acunya Albi's bounce back, et cetera.

449
00:20:57,960 --> 00:20:59,040
Speaker 3: I think he's a solid pick.

450
00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:01,000
Speaker 2: I think he's a solid p and I differentiate with

451
00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:04,800
Speaker 2: Cruise because the batting average is actually projectable, prodectably decent.

452
00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:09,399
Speaker 1: I think this is like the most proper porridge of

453
00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:11,080
Speaker 1: all of them, you know, where it's like this one's

454
00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:13,080
Speaker 1: too hot, this one's too cold, this one is just

455
00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:15,680
Speaker 1: about right. Like I think we both see that there's

456
00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:20,159
Speaker 1: equity to be had in Duran and Merrill Oneil Cruz

457
00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:22,760
Speaker 1: is like laughably not in the right spot where he

458
00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:24,879
Speaker 1: should be. Michael Harris, this is just about where it

459
00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:27,679
Speaker 1: should be. Like, I love the huge rebound in the

460
00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:29,720
Speaker 1: second half of the year. The problem is is we

461
00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:33,800
Speaker 1: got to stop having streaky Michael Harris, whether it's injuries

462
00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:37,440
Speaker 1: or having like extreme Justin Upton type halfs. Like we

463
00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:39,920
Speaker 1: need to have a little bit more consistency with him.

464
00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:43,119
Speaker 1: At two and a half percent, walk rate is like laughable,

465
00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:45,080
Speaker 1: Like it just you got to get on base. He's

466
00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:47,320
Speaker 1: got to learn to walk more. At least he didn't

467
00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:51,080
Speaker 1: pair it with more strikeouts. His expected batting average is

468
00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:53,199
Speaker 1: quite a bit higher than where he was. He hit

469
00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:55,479
Speaker 1: two forty nine with an XBA of two seventy two.

470
00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:59,600
Speaker 1: Part of that is because he massively underperformed against fastballs.

471
00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:03,320
Speaker 1: He hit two fifty three expected two ninety four, and

472
00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:05,719
Speaker 1: it's a pretty good floor against osbeat and breaking pitches.

473
00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:09,480
Speaker 1: Essentially two fifty that's a really good, well rounded hitter.

474
00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:13,840
Speaker 1: And I think you can take the optimism optimism of

475
00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:15,919
Speaker 1: how he finished the year. You can look at some

476
00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:17,920
Speaker 1: of the hard hit numbers, you can look at him

477
00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:19,720
Speaker 1: becoming an all around hitter, and you can just pray

478
00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:22,000
Speaker 1: to God he can walk a little bit more. I

479
00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:23,960
Speaker 1: think this is about right. This is about right for

480
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:27,040
Speaker 1: a volatile, streaky twenty twenty guy that doesn't have much

481
00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:29,840
Speaker 1: upside after that right around one hundred, so he has

482
00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:33,840
Speaker 1: fallen in drafts to arrange. That makes sense, and sometimes

483
00:22:33,880 --> 00:22:36,240
Speaker 1: that's all you're asking for, whether you believe or not,

484
00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:36,840
Speaker 1: the upside.

485
00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:37,760
Speaker 3: Sorry to interrupt you.

486
00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:39,920
Speaker 2: Sorry especially for Rodo, right, because if your head to

487
00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:41,680
Speaker 2: head play now trying to predict which week of the

488
00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:43,480
Speaker 2: year Michael Harris is going to go off, that's when

489
00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:45,800
Speaker 2: you're gonna go crazy in Rodo. If you didn't finished

490
00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:47,399
Speaker 2: twenty twenty, you don't really care if it comes in

491
00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:48,080
Speaker 2: April or August.

492
00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:52,639
Speaker 1: Right, absolutely, we've got pictures. We've only been talking about hitters.

493
00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:54,399
Speaker 1: As a matter of fact, we've got a group of

494
00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:58,639
Speaker 1: pictures and then I think the two biggest names that

495
00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:01,640
Speaker 1: have fallen so dramatically that will shock people. If you're

496
00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:03,600
Speaker 1: not heavy in the baseball streets, or at least you're

497
00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:05,160
Speaker 1: just going to be like, oh, maybe it won't shock,

498
00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:07,160
Speaker 1: but maybe it'll be like, oh, this is where we're at.

499
00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:10,320
Speaker 1: We've got pictures, we've got those two players, but before

500
00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:13,840
Speaker 1: we do, we've got championships to win, and championships they're

501
00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:16,200
Speaker 1: one at the draft, and that's where Fantasy Pros MLB

502
00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:18,919
Speaker 1: Draft Wizard gives you the edge. You can sink your

503
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:21,760
Speaker 1: league in seconds and run realistic mock drafts using your

504
00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:24,760
Speaker 1: exact league settings. Our tools show you who you should

505
00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:27,159
Speaker 1: take next, the odds your favorite players will still be

506
00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 1: on the board, and a ton more and guess what

507
00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:31,000
Speaker 1: if you're in a pinch, you can ask coach in

508
00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:34,760
Speaker 1: real time to get advice tailored to your specific draft. Plus,

509
00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:37,040
Speaker 1: you can view player cards, projections, and build your own

510
00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:40,280
Speaker 1: tiered cheat sheets. Draft like a pro with Fantasy Pros

511
00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:44,959
Speaker 1: Mlbdraft Wizard at Fantasypros dot com slash MLB Draft Wizard.

512
00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:50,119
Speaker 1: That's Fantasypros dot com slash MLB Draft wizard. Moving to

513
00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:54,560
Speaker 1: some pictures, Yes they have fallen. Sometimes they are the

514
00:23:54,560 --> 00:23:56,800
Speaker 1: big targets for a lot of people. But we've got

515
00:23:56,800 --> 00:24:00,159
Speaker 1: a handful of pitchers that have fallen in drafts or

516
00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:03,080
Speaker 1: gooder for worse, for better for worse. Let's see what

517
00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:05,600
Speaker 1: your take on it is. Coming in at number five

518
00:24:05,680 --> 00:24:09,679
Speaker 1: of players that have fallen. Pablo Lopez. Paba Lopez is

519
00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:13,439
Speaker 1: going one hundred and thirty six as we're doing this,

520
00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:16,040
Speaker 1: so just call it the mid one thirties in drafts

521
00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:20,040
Speaker 1: so far this season after last year going inside the

522
00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:22,919
Speaker 1: top sixty five, he actually had an aggregate ADP of

523
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:26,919
Speaker 1: sixty three according to our sites. ADP over on Fantasy

524
00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:31,080
Speaker 1: Pros aggregated altogether, Paba Lopez not a not a great

525
00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:33,680
Speaker 1: season due to injury, but I mean statistically, if you

526
00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:35,760
Speaker 1: pay attention to ERA, it was better. He had a

527
00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:38,639
Speaker 1: four point zero eight ERA in twenty twenty four one

528
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:41,840
Speaker 1: hundred and eighty five innings and to be frank Pablo Lopez,

529
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:44,800
Speaker 1: I mean he had like some stability. He had three

530
00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:47,320
Speaker 1: straight seasons of one hundred and eighty innings or more,

531
00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:50,600
Speaker 1: but this past season he only had seventy five innings pitched.

532
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:52,760
Speaker 1: He had a one to one WHIP and a two

533
00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:56,000
Speaker 1: seven to four ERA. Again, those are better than any

534
00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:58,560
Speaker 1: previous year if you're looking at it from a surface level,

535
00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:02,600
Speaker 1: But his cape percentage drop, his walk percentage was up expected.

536
00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:05,119
Speaker 1: El Ra tells a different story. He got hit harder

537
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:07,040
Speaker 1: and he missed a bunch of time and that has

538
00:25:07,080 --> 00:25:12,640
Speaker 1: all led to him cratering in ADP and value. Do

539
00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:14,800
Speaker 1: you think this is the proper range for him or

540
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:16,240
Speaker 1: do you think you're going to be looking a little

541
00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:18,200
Speaker 1: bit higher or is he just off your board altogether.

542
00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:20,800
Speaker 2: I don't think it's a terrible price, but I'm a

543
00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 2: little bit concerned because he didn't end the season healthy

544
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:27,080
Speaker 2: and that's always a red flag. And granted he got

545
00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:30,000
Speaker 2: hurt like a week out from the season ending, but

546
00:25:30,040 --> 00:25:33,000
Speaker 2: it was a forearm strain, and forearm strains are usually

547
00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:35,159
Speaker 2: precursors to elbow problems. I was going back and I

548
00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:37,560
Speaker 2: was reading some articles last night and this morning in

549
00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:40,360
Speaker 2: preparation for this, and they described it as a mild

550
00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:44,200
Speaker 2: mid forearm strain and there's no concern about the UCL

551
00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:47,040
Speaker 2: or the elbow being damaged. At that point, they mostly

552
00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:48,720
Speaker 2: shut him down because the season was about to be

553
00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:51,159
Speaker 2: over and the twins were not playing for anything. It

554
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:53,760
Speaker 2: still doesn't give me a great feeling, especially as he's

555
00:25:53,760 --> 00:25:56,640
Speaker 2: about to hit that awful birthday that I got coming

556
00:25:56,680 --> 00:25:58,600
Speaker 2: around the bend. In a couple of years myself, he'll

557
00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:01,320
Speaker 2: be thirty, and his strikeout rate is not what it

558
00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:03,440
Speaker 2: once was either twenty three percent, you know, it was

559
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:06,200
Speaker 2: twenty five, twenty nine, twenty seven percent. I'm not sure

560
00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:08,480
Speaker 2: if that is something that maybe was injury based. He

561
00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:11,000
Speaker 2: had a shoulder problem earlier in the season before the

562
00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:13,560
Speaker 2: forearm popped up. So I'm a little bit concerned about

563
00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:15,560
Speaker 2: what kind of volume we can expect. You mentioned that

564
00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:17,960
Speaker 2: he had been a workhorse, not one hundred percent sure

565
00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:20,679
Speaker 2: what I would expect in terms of volume. Steamer has

566
00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:22,879
Speaker 2: one hundred and eighty two innings on him. I'd probably

567
00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:25,480
Speaker 2: take the under. But the real part that makes me

568
00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:27,920
Speaker 2: hard to draft him this year is I really love

569
00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:30,000
Speaker 2: this range that he's going in. For other pitchers, we

570
00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:32,760
Speaker 2: did a whole segment in Arizona and even on the

571
00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:35,320
Speaker 2: last show talking about a lot of these guys, Cam Schlitler,

572
00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:39,359
Speaker 2: Jacob Mazerowski, Chase Burns, you know, even Nickelodolo. I really

573
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:42,640
Speaker 2: like Bieber Emmits, she and et cetera. They're all going

574
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:45,879
Speaker 2: in that same range where Pablo Lopez is going. So

575
00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:48,159
Speaker 2: you're likely passing up on one of those guys who

576
00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:52,399
Speaker 2: could be this year's breakout Miserowski, Burns, Ya, Savage, et cetera.

577
00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:55,359
Speaker 2: You are passing up on one of those young guns

578
00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:59,960
Speaker 2: for Lopez who, like I said, busby thirty, shoulder, forearm problem,

579
00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:03,760
Speaker 2: strikeout rate, not going the right direction, bad team behind him.

580
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:05,360
Speaker 2: I don't think Minnesota is a great team, and there's

581
00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:07,760
Speaker 2: been talks that they might continue to trade pieces. The

582
00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:10,400
Speaker 2: Pollods are just they don't spend money, so I don't

583
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:12,040
Speaker 2: know how much you can really expect that a Pablo

584
00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:13,280
Speaker 2: Lopez in twenty twenty six.

585
00:27:14,600 --> 00:27:18,040
Speaker 1: I think there's no doubt that you understand from the

586
00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:22,640
Speaker 1: injury history, you understand why he's fallen and the success

587
00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 1: of what he's done. I'm not sure it's not one

588
00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:27,800
Speaker 1: hundred percent justified. I would say he is the more

589
00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:30,000
Speaker 1: likely guy of him and Joe Ryan to be traded.

590
00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:33,199
Speaker 1: Apologies if there's been something that's happened, you know, got

591
00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:34,880
Speaker 1: winter meetings around the corner. I don't want to date

592
00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:37,439
Speaker 1: ourselves too much on this, but I think there's a possibility.

593
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:39,280
Speaker 1: He you know, he could be sold off and if that,

594
00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:41,440
Speaker 1: if that's the case, I don't think it's the most

595
00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:44,399
Speaker 1: ridiculous thing on the planet. He was both beneficial. I

596
00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:47,600
Speaker 1: mean in his short stint of games that he pitched

597
00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:50,560
Speaker 1: this year, again he had a sub three era. He

598
00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:53,960
Speaker 1: had a sub three era both at home and on

599
00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:57,000
Speaker 1: the road. The things that are most important to me

600
00:27:57,160 --> 00:27:59,080
Speaker 1: are going to be his health and hearing the help.

601
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:02,000
Speaker 1: That's it. If you get a full clean bill of health,

602
00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:03,679
Speaker 1: I think you can jump back in. Because he had

603
00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:05,960
Speaker 1: a decrease by a little over mile per hour on

604
00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:08,840
Speaker 1: his four seen fastball, which you don't want to see,

605
00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:12,120
Speaker 1: but it didn't get hit harder. You know, his sweeper

606
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:16,160
Speaker 1: held hitters to a one to thirty three batting average,

607
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:19,560
Speaker 1: and the year prior it was it was two thirty nine,

608
00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:21,560
Speaker 1: and the expected numbers look even better. So like I

609
00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:23,680
Speaker 1: still think some of the pitch ability is there. I

610
00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:26,080
Speaker 1: think there's still some upside, but he has to be

611
00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:29,119
Speaker 1: where he's at right now. Bill of health is the

612
00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:31,760
Speaker 1: most important thing, and secondary is going to be where

613
00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:34,200
Speaker 1: does he get moved off? He is falling in drafts.

614
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:36,920
Speaker 1: This is a very very popular name. Last season, and

615
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:39,960
Speaker 1: this might be one of the ones that's like from

616
00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:43,160
Speaker 1: a production versus time miss standpoint, the production is telling

617
00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:45,160
Speaker 1: us a story that like, hey, if you get one

618
00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:46,880
Speaker 1: hundred and eighty innings out of what he did this

619
00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:49,080
Speaker 1: past year, or even if he regresses to be like

620
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:51,600
Speaker 1: a three and a half e RA guy, he's going

621
00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:53,640
Speaker 1: to be worth more than the costs that you're putting in.

622
00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:56,320
Speaker 1: So he is falling in drafts, but maybe he's someone

623
00:28:56,400 --> 00:28:58,360
Speaker 1: you can swoop up. I don't know if you will

624
00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:02,640
Speaker 1: be super interested in the guy though. At number six,

625
00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:05,280
Speaker 1: this is a player that was going to hit free agency,

626
00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:09,120
Speaker 1: but then was They signed their tender contract to come

627
00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:13,280
Speaker 1: back with an ADP of one forty eight this season,

628
00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:17,440
Speaker 1: after going inside the top sixty five, he was actually

629
00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:22,120
Speaker 1: one spot higher than Pablo Lopez. It's Shota Imanaga. Imanaga,

630
00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:25,160
Speaker 1: with a three seven ERA this past year, did pitch

631
00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:28,560
Speaker 1: twenty five games, one hundred and forty four innings, pitched

632
00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:31,440
Speaker 1: his strikeouts they kind of cratered. At least he still

633
00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:33,240
Speaker 1: didn't walk a lot of guys, gave up a lot

634
00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:35,480
Speaker 1: more hard hit and barreled contact. But he is back

635
00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:38,320
Speaker 1: with the Cubs this year and his cost is more

636
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:41,360
Speaker 1: than doubled down. So what do you think. Do you

637
00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:43,280
Speaker 1: think this is a justified There's no doubt that he

638
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:46,280
Speaker 1: is absolutely cratering in drafts. Is he going to be

639
00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 1: someone you're interested in?

640
00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:47,440
Speaker 4: It?

641
00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:47,680
Speaker 3: All?

642
00:29:48,520 --> 00:29:50,960
Speaker 2: This price is really a reflection of the market getting

643
00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:53,840
Speaker 2: sharper than it has been over the years. Like every year,

644
00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:55,440
Speaker 2: I think players get a little bit better. He has

645
00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:57,480
Speaker 2: a sub one whip and he's going as like, you know,

646
00:29:57,600 --> 00:29:59,720
Speaker 2: the forty fifth pitcher off the board. You don't usually

647
00:29:59,760 --> 00:30:02,840
Speaker 2: see that, But the strikeouts are kind of the be

648
00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:04,440
Speaker 2: all and end all here for me. He went from

649
00:30:04,440 --> 00:30:06,600
Speaker 2: twenty five percent to twenty percent. It might surprise a

650
00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:08,760
Speaker 2: lot of people to know that Iman Nauga's already thirty two.

651
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:10,520
Speaker 2: He came over when he was thirty years old, so

652
00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:13,320
Speaker 2: he's not a young guy. He's not Yamamoto or Suzaki,

653
00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:16,680
Speaker 2: young twenties, mid twenties. He's already kind of pushing it

654
00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:18,680
Speaker 2: a little bit, and if the strikeouts are already going

655
00:30:18,760 --> 00:30:21,800
Speaker 2: that way, I'm really not that interested in him. He

656
00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:23,720
Speaker 2: gave up, like you mentioned, a lot of hard contract,

657
00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:24,880
Speaker 2: a lot of hard contact.

658
00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:25,920
Speaker 3: One point nine to.

659
00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:28,920
Speaker 2: Three homer nine this season, one hundred and forty four innings,

660
00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:31,600
Speaker 2: gave thirty one homers. He had a four to eighty

661
00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:35,880
Speaker 2: six FIP that like, those are really startling numbers. The

662
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:38,040
Speaker 2: stuff was already only a ninety seven went down to

663
00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:41,600
Speaker 2: ninety four. You know, they weren't chasing as much. Batters

664
00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:43,760
Speaker 2: were chasing thirty seven percent of the time last year

665
00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:46,800
Speaker 2: or thirty six now this year was thirty one. Swinging

666
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:49,680
Speaker 2: strike rate went down from fifteen percent, which was an

667
00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:52,840
Speaker 2: elite number, down to eleven, which is kind of whatever.

668
00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:55,000
Speaker 2: So there's a lot of things going in the wrong

669
00:30:55,120 --> 00:30:57,440
Speaker 2: direction for show to iman Naga. Good friend of mine,

670
00:30:57,480 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 2: Thomas Nestico, you guys probably know him better as TJ

671
00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:03,000
Speaker 2: stats on Twitter. He was worried about Imanaga last year

672
00:31:03,080 --> 00:31:05,600
Speaker 2: heading into the season. He kind of was able to

673
00:31:05,640 --> 00:31:08,360
Speaker 2: hold it together. But I think he's holding it together

674
00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:10,520
Speaker 2: with string at this point, and next season it's gonna

675
00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:12,200
Speaker 2: be a pretty dark year for Imanaga, I think, or

676
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:13,640
Speaker 2: for his fantasy managers anyway.

677
00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:17,080
Speaker 1: And I'll tell you so a couple of interesting things.

678
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:20,040
Speaker 1: Even Aga was worse at home. He had about a

679
00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:22,200
Speaker 1: four ERA at home, which I think concerned some people.

680
00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:24,640
Speaker 1: He lost a full mile per hour on his fastball

681
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:27,240
Speaker 1: that at his age is actually maybe one of the

682
00:31:27,320 --> 00:31:30,800
Speaker 1: most concerning things. He lost some pretty significant wift percentages,

683
00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:33,280
Speaker 1: specifically on his split finger, which he throws over thirty

684
00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:37,280
Speaker 1: percent of the time. But all of that paired with

685
00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:39,840
Speaker 1: two ridiculous things on the homers that you talked about.

686
00:31:40,440 --> 00:31:44,120
Speaker 1: He gave up twenty seven of his thirty one homers

687
00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:47,160
Speaker 1: to right handed hitters. Like there, I mean, like listen,

688
00:31:47,520 --> 00:31:50,880
Speaker 1: Obviously there were more innings. There were three times as

689
00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:55,280
Speaker 1: many innings pitch against righty's than lefties, but still that

690
00:31:55,480 --> 00:31:58,880
Speaker 1: number is ridiculous against righty So he clearly has a

691
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:02,479
Speaker 1: problem with his approach versus righty's. And you know, if

692
00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:05,720
Speaker 1: you look the thing that he's doing against right handers

693
00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:09,880
Speaker 1: is he is throwing. It looks like that's splitter. Even more,

694
00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:13,320
Speaker 1: that splitter is heavily against right handers and not against lefties,

695
00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:15,680
Speaker 1: which is that might be a problem. But also more

696
00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:18,080
Speaker 1: importantly here where I look at a player and I go,

697
00:32:18,520 --> 00:32:21,440
Speaker 1: is this something that's so abnormal? Is this fixable? Maybe?

698
00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:25,280
Speaker 1: But maybe not with the stuff declining. Of those thirty

699
00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:30,200
Speaker 1: one homers, only seven he gave up from March to June,

700
00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:33,280
Speaker 1: So that means what's the rough math, you're twenty four

701
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:37,640
Speaker 1: homers he gave up from July through September, a ridiculous number.

702
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:41,040
Speaker 1: He gave up nine, five and then ten between those

703
00:32:41,080 --> 00:32:45,160
Speaker 1: two months, and they obviously equated to like ridiculous overinflated

704
00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:49,479
Speaker 1: home run numbers. I'm just we're telling you a lot

705
00:32:49,560 --> 00:32:51,680
Speaker 1: of stuff with like, okay, so then what's the answer.

706
00:32:52,040 --> 00:32:54,880
Speaker 1: The answer might be with the declining velo a ballpark

707
00:32:54,960 --> 00:32:56,840
Speaker 1: that he doesn't pitch as well in he can't get

708
00:32:57,560 --> 00:32:59,960
Speaker 1: he can't not give up homers to right handed hitters.

709
00:33:00,560 --> 00:33:02,520
Speaker 1: I don't know if there are any anomalies, and maybe

710
00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:04,600
Speaker 1: this is a problem, and maybe he is somebody that

711
00:33:04,800 --> 00:33:07,360
Speaker 1: is just as strait avoid even at the cost of

712
00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:09,760
Speaker 1: how far he's fallen in the one fifties. Maybe he's

713
00:33:09,760 --> 00:33:11,520
Speaker 1: someone you still just don't want to buy into.

714
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:13,680
Speaker 2: I mean, look at the range around him. It's similar

715
00:33:13,760 --> 00:33:16,160
Speaker 2: to Lopez. You know, Ryan Papio is right in that range.

716
00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:18,400
Speaker 2: Spore on our live show that was the player. He

717
00:33:18,480 --> 00:33:21,600
Speaker 2: highlighted that he's targeting Drew Rasmussen going back to the

718
00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:25,080
Speaker 2: Troup this year. I've always liked Rasmusen ro Don Sandy

719
00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:27,840
Speaker 2: al Contra another year removed from So you're passing up

720
00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:30,040
Speaker 2: on a lot of goodness to take Imanaga, who is

721
00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:31,720
Speaker 2: very far from a short thing at this point.

722
00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:35,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, twenty four. Also of those homers came off of

723
00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:37,840
Speaker 1: the four seam fastball. The other seven all came off

724
00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:40,720
Speaker 1: of the split fingers, So you know, I highlighted the

725
00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:42,560
Speaker 1: split finger a little bit, even though it didn't have

726
00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:45,600
Speaker 1: like a high batting average, but still like seven homers

727
00:33:45,680 --> 00:33:48,280
Speaker 1: off of a thirty one percent usage pitch is not good.

728
00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:50,760
Speaker 1: And then what's he doing. He's going back to the fastball,

729
00:33:50,760 --> 00:33:54,000
Speaker 1: which dudes are just they're tanking. They're tanking again, so

730
00:33:54,080 --> 00:33:57,160
Speaker 1: it's not great. Here's another big one. This actually I

731
00:33:57,200 --> 00:34:00,200
Speaker 1: think is the I This in the next one of

732
00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:03,920
Speaker 1: the two big biggest numerical changes between them. And if

733
00:34:04,040 --> 00:34:05,800
Speaker 1: you were an Aaron Nola guy, you're gonna have a

734
00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:08,839
Speaker 1: hard time finding him in draft, especially in the draft

735
00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:12,200
Speaker 1: boards this year, because last season he was going seventy

736
00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:15,320
Speaker 1: two before the season started on the aggregate ADP. This

737
00:34:15,480 --> 00:34:19,160
Speaker 1: year he is outside the top two hundred and two thirteen.

738
00:34:19,520 --> 00:34:21,960
Speaker 1: To be exact, he had a six ERA last year,

739
00:34:22,480 --> 00:34:24,800
Speaker 1: missed a ton of time, only pitched ninety four innings,

740
00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:28,360
Speaker 1: whip was way up. The expected numbers are better, but

741
00:34:28,440 --> 00:34:30,040
Speaker 1: it's still over four, which would be the worst of

742
00:34:30,120 --> 00:34:34,080
Speaker 1: his career. More barreled contact. Aaron Nola a big faller

743
00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:35,600
Speaker 1: in drafts. Buy or sell.

744
00:34:37,200 --> 00:34:39,960
Speaker 3: I'm I'm willing to consider it.

745
00:34:40,120 --> 00:34:43,239
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna commit to he's a target or he's not,

746
00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:46,120
Speaker 2: but the price is really really good for him. His

747
00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:48,319
Speaker 2: injuries last year, which caused him to miss some time

748
00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:52,160
Speaker 2: and perhaps contributed to the poor results. They were both

749
00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:54,479
Speaker 2: ankle injuries. As long, I don't think I'm missing anything.

750
00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:56,480
Speaker 2: It was two ankle injuries, one initial one, then he

751
00:34:56,560 --> 00:34:59,640
Speaker 2: reaggravated it. I don't think there was anything shoulder, fore arm,

752
00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 2: elbow or anything like that. So that gives me some,

753
00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:06,719
Speaker 2: you know, some hope. He did kind of pick things

754
00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:08,480
Speaker 2: up in the second half of the season. There were

755
00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:10,680
Speaker 2: still some stinkers, but he ended the year with eight

756
00:35:10,760 --> 00:35:13,359
Speaker 2: innings of one run ball nine strikeouts, so he ended

757
00:35:13,400 --> 00:35:15,400
Speaker 2: on a strong note at least, and a lot of

758
00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:17,720
Speaker 2: the supporting numbers were a lot better than that. Sixth

759
00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:20,480
Speaker 2: era suggests his fit was about the same as show

760
00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:23,440
Speaker 2: Toymanaga four or five eight. I think Imanaga was four

761
00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:25,480
Speaker 2: or five seven, but the strikeouts are still about where

762
00:35:25,520 --> 00:35:25,880
Speaker 2: they've been.

763
00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:28,080
Speaker 3: The command is still fairly solid.

764
00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:31,400
Speaker 2: I think that there is room for him to bounce

765
00:35:31,480 --> 00:35:33,960
Speaker 2: back here, and at the price he only has to

766
00:35:34,040 --> 00:35:37,040
Speaker 2: be your what he's like your sixth pitcher at that point,

767
00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:40,160
Speaker 2: maybe easier with your fifth sixth pitcher. I think it's

768
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:42,959
Speaker 2: an area where I can buy it because the guy's

769
00:35:43,040 --> 00:35:45,880
Speaker 2: going around him again. That's kind of where I go

770
00:35:46,000 --> 00:35:48,160
Speaker 2: on the evaluation. Who am I passing up to take him?

771
00:35:48,200 --> 00:35:52,640
Speaker 2: It's like Mackenzie Gore, Zach Gallen, Andrew Abbott Connolly early.

772
00:35:53,280 --> 00:35:55,680
Speaker 2: I can talk myself into Aaron Nola being the best

773
00:35:55,760 --> 00:35:57,279
Speaker 2: of those guys and kind of having a bit of

774
00:35:57,320 --> 00:36:00,600
Speaker 2: a bounce back season. He's done the odd ev year thing,

775
00:36:00,680 --> 00:36:02,120
Speaker 2: which I don't know if I want to read too

776
00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:04,839
Speaker 2: much into, but he's due for a good one. If

777
00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:06,640
Speaker 2: you want to add that to the pros, I will.

778
00:36:06,680 --> 00:36:09,520
Speaker 1: Actually that was something I was going to say a goofy.

779
00:36:09,600 --> 00:36:12,879
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna list it and since twenty eighteen, here

780
00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:17,160
Speaker 1: are his eras year by year eighteen two, three, seven,

781
00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:22,839
Speaker 1: nineteen three, eight, seven, twenty three, two, eight, twenty one,

782
00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:26,480
Speaker 1: four six three, twenty twenty two. Bounce back with A three,

783
00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:29,680
Speaker 1: two five, twenty twenty three, four four, six, twenty twenty

784
00:36:29,719 --> 00:36:32,000
Speaker 1: four three five, seven, and this year A six. It

785
00:36:32,080 --> 00:36:35,440
Speaker 1: has been I mean, what is that like? Seven one, two, three, four, five, six,

786
00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:38,800
Speaker 1: seven is eight years of every other year and we

787
00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:40,800
Speaker 1: are on we are if you want to play that

788
00:36:40,880 --> 00:36:43,040
Speaker 1: fun game. We're on the positive year side. We're on

789
00:36:43,120 --> 00:36:44,759
Speaker 1: the two year side if you want to play that.

790
00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:46,880
Speaker 1: So sorry, continue, No, that that's mostly it.

791
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:49,200
Speaker 2: Like, I don't think he's gonna be somebody like when

792
00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:51,800
Speaker 2: we start making those videos five players to target for

793
00:36:51,880 --> 00:36:52,239
Speaker 2: your team.

794
00:36:52,440 --> 00:36:53,600
Speaker 3: He won't be on my lists.

795
00:36:53,920 --> 00:36:55,279
Speaker 2: But if he's a guy that I end up with

796
00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:58,000
Speaker 2: as my fifth or sixth pitcher, I'll be totally fine

797
00:36:58,040 --> 00:37:00,279
Speaker 2: with that. There's a chance he bounces back. He's pitching

798
00:37:00,360 --> 00:37:02,680
Speaker 2: for a good team still, so I can be talked

799
00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:02,960
Speaker 2: into it.

800
00:37:04,200 --> 00:37:07,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think I don't know if I

801
00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:09,360
Speaker 1: have a take on this one outside to say that,

802
00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:11,840
Speaker 1: guess what, he is absolutely cratered in drafts. I'm a

803
00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:13,440
Speaker 1: little bit worried that we you know, we could just

804
00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:16,360
Speaker 1: be done. You know, he's getting older, things are progressing

805
00:37:16,400 --> 00:37:18,480
Speaker 1: in a bad way. He wasn't able to finish through

806
00:37:18,520 --> 00:37:20,600
Speaker 1: the year. He didn't have a single month where he

807
00:37:20,719 --> 00:37:22,680
Speaker 1: was good this past year. So I just want to

808
00:37:22,760 --> 00:37:24,520
Speaker 1: point out it's not like, oh, hey, guys, you know

809
00:37:24,600 --> 00:37:26,680
Speaker 1: he was like good in April and August, but he

810
00:37:26,760 --> 00:37:29,200
Speaker 1: really suck the other three. Every single month he's stunk.

811
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:31,200
Speaker 1: The best era he had in a single month is

812
00:37:31,200 --> 00:37:32,640
Speaker 1: four eight five. And I know you could be like, well,

813
00:37:32,800 --> 00:37:36,719
Speaker 1: or doesn't mean anything, Okay, Well, he had one month

814
00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:38,919
Speaker 1: where he had like a one point zero two whip.

815
00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:42,040
Speaker 1: Every other whip was like absolutely atrocious. Wasn't good. He

816
00:37:42,120 --> 00:37:44,120
Speaker 1: was bad at home, he was bad on the road.

817
00:37:45,360 --> 00:37:47,560
Speaker 1: He's lost a little bit of v low, he's giving

818
00:37:47,640 --> 00:37:50,200
Speaker 1: up more barreled contact, he's starting to walk a little

819
00:37:50,239 --> 00:37:53,960
Speaker 1: bit more. Like what's the redeeming factor here across the board?

820
00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:55,880
Speaker 1: He is he did get hit a little bit more

821
00:37:56,000 --> 00:37:59,560
Speaker 1: versus some of the expected numbers. So like his curveball,

822
00:37:59,640 --> 00:38:02,520
Speaker 1: he throws two seventy four average against the expected was

823
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:05,160
Speaker 1: two forty three. So there's some regressive things that could

824
00:38:05,200 --> 00:38:08,680
Speaker 1: be better, but at best you're getting the value of him.

825
00:38:08,719 --> 00:38:11,879
Speaker 1: This is a deserved player that is falling. Aaron Nola

826
00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:14,440
Speaker 1: is on the back half of what is good. And

827
00:38:14,600 --> 00:38:16,959
Speaker 1: you even said, like you said, like, you know, Conley Early,

828
00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:19,080
Speaker 1: I'd rather take the upside of a guy like Early

829
00:38:19,120 --> 00:38:21,800
Speaker 1: at this point than get a mid for his ERA

830
00:38:22,080 --> 00:38:24,200
Speaker 1: at best, Aaron Nola, and I think that's where we're at.

831
00:38:24,280 --> 00:38:25,920
Speaker 1: So he is falling and I'm buying it.

832
00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:26,640
Speaker 3: I get it.

833
00:38:26,719 --> 00:38:29,080
Speaker 2: The only last thing I'll say in his favor is

834
00:38:29,120 --> 00:38:31,600
Speaker 2: that September October, as much as you know, the ERA

835
00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:33,800
Speaker 2: was still five, which wasn't improvement over the rest of

836
00:38:33,840 --> 00:38:37,160
Speaker 2: the season. His FIP was three sixty and a twenty

837
00:38:37,239 --> 00:38:39,719
Speaker 2: five percent STRICO rate in September and October. So he

838
00:38:39,800 --> 00:38:42,319
Speaker 2: did finish with what was his best month, even though

839
00:38:42,360 --> 00:38:44,680
Speaker 2: it wasn't, to your point, a great month. He finished

840
00:38:44,880 --> 00:38:46,440
Speaker 2: better than he had looked throughout the year. So I

841
00:38:47,440 --> 00:38:49,040
Speaker 2: I'm still kind of hemming and hang on him a

842
00:38:49,040 --> 00:38:51,440
Speaker 2: little bit. But he's a fine pick where he's going,

843
00:38:51,520 --> 00:38:53,239
Speaker 2: I think, yeah, And I.

844
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:55,200
Speaker 1: Mean he used to just be this like really great

845
00:38:55,239 --> 00:38:58,880
Speaker 1: elite guy. Since twenty twenty, his K percentage has gotten

846
00:38:59,200 --> 00:39:02,080
Speaker 1: is never improve proved, and any single year after that

847
00:39:02,239 --> 00:39:04,600
Speaker 1: it has either gotten worse or for the last two

848
00:39:04,680 --> 00:39:07,920
Speaker 1: years it stayed the same at twenty four percent. Another

849
00:39:08,000 --> 00:39:10,680
Speaker 1: pitcher that was going inside the top one hundred last year.

850
00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:12,120
Speaker 1: This is the last of the pitchers we're going to

851
00:39:12,160 --> 00:39:14,680
Speaker 1: talk about. Maybe is kind of out of sight, out

852
00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:15,960
Speaker 1: of mind for a lot of people, but you want

853
00:39:15,960 --> 00:39:17,839
Speaker 1: to know what he was a guy that was seen

854
00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:21,160
Speaker 1: as like the other the five of the mount Rushmore.

855
00:39:21,480 --> 00:39:24,040
Speaker 1: You have to add an extra one of Mariner's pitchers,

856
00:39:24,120 --> 00:39:26,279
Speaker 1: and it's Bryce Miller. Bryce Miller was seen in a

857
00:39:26,320 --> 00:39:28,960
Speaker 1: really good light after a twenty twenty four where he

858
00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:31,680
Speaker 1: pitched a two nine four ERA in one hundred and

859
00:39:31,760 --> 00:39:35,080
Speaker 1: eighty winning innings with a sub one whip and one

860
00:39:35,200 --> 00:39:37,960
Speaker 1: hundred and seventy one strikeouts. Now kate percentage was only

861
00:39:38,040 --> 00:39:41,359
Speaker 1: like twenty four percent, but like we're looking at him,

862
00:39:41,480 --> 00:39:43,520
Speaker 1: like he is it Brian wu Is it Bryce Miller?

863
00:39:44,040 --> 00:39:46,680
Speaker 1: And when you look at the ADPs, he was going

864
00:39:46,840 --> 00:39:50,439
Speaker 1: seventy seventh in drafts last year. The single furthest drop

865
00:39:50,840 --> 00:39:54,400
Speaker 1: to two thirty three. He is almost not being draft

866
00:39:54,840 --> 00:39:57,760
Speaker 1: after a year where he had a five six eight ERA,

867
00:39:58,280 --> 00:40:01,320
Speaker 1: also suffered some massive injuries, only pitched ninety innings. His

868
00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:05,000
Speaker 1: k percentage dropped from twenty four to eighteen percent. He

869
00:40:05,160 --> 00:40:08,839
Speaker 1: walked more, the ERA was tanked, the whip was over

870
00:40:09,000 --> 00:40:12,239
Speaker 1: one four everything completely fell apart for Bryce Miller, so

871
00:40:12,360 --> 00:40:14,880
Speaker 1: that is why he has fallen in drafts. Do you

872
00:40:15,040 --> 00:40:16,560
Speaker 1: buy the fall on Bryce Miller?

873
00:40:17,040 --> 00:40:19,800
Speaker 2: I understand it for sure when you're factoring in the

874
00:40:19,960 --> 00:40:23,080
Speaker 2: elbow problems. It was two separate elbow ailments this past year,

875
00:40:23,120 --> 00:40:25,560
Speaker 2: and also the fact that he is a home park merchant.

876
00:40:25,640 --> 00:40:28,360
Speaker 2: He's a safeg Field T mobile merchant throughout his career.

877
00:40:28,960 --> 00:40:31,560
Speaker 2: Home era is three thirty four. On the road, it's

878
00:40:31,719 --> 00:40:34,719
Speaker 2: four to seventy seven, which is I mean, unless it's

879
00:40:34,719 --> 00:40:36,520
Speaker 2: the playoffs and it's the game win of the Alcs

880
00:40:36,560 --> 00:40:37,320
Speaker 2: where he'll cook.

881
00:40:37,160 --> 00:40:37,800
Speaker 3: The Blue Jays.

882
00:40:37,840 --> 00:40:40,120
Speaker 2: Other than that, on the road, he was not very

883
00:40:40,160 --> 00:40:42,600
Speaker 2: good this past season. The strakeouts went down. I think

884
00:40:42,640 --> 00:40:44,760
Speaker 2: a lot of it can be chocked up to the injuries.

885
00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:47,000
Speaker 2: But how healthy is he going to be this upcoming

886
00:40:47,080 --> 00:40:49,359
Speaker 2: season and how comfortable am I starting him for those

887
00:40:49,400 --> 00:40:52,640
Speaker 2: sixteen or seventeen times where he's not in Seattle. I

888
00:40:52,760 --> 00:40:55,439
Speaker 2: understand the fall, and I don't think I really want

889
00:40:55,480 --> 00:40:57,879
Speaker 2: to pay it now. Like I mentioned, he performed well

890
00:40:57,920 --> 00:41:00,640
Speaker 2: in the playoffs, and that could be something that it's like, Okay,

891
00:41:00,760 --> 00:41:03,839
Speaker 2: he was healthy, he's fixed, now he'll be fine. There's

892
00:41:03,920 --> 00:41:06,440
Speaker 2: not a lot of strong data points. His stuff is

893
00:41:06,480 --> 00:41:08,520
Speaker 2: about average. He doesn't get a ton of swing and miss.

894
00:41:08,680 --> 00:41:11,040
Speaker 2: I'm worried about half of his starts to begin with.

895
00:41:11,840 --> 00:41:14,400
Speaker 2: I just think he's better left for somebody else. But

896
00:41:14,760 --> 00:41:17,520
Speaker 2: at his price, I could see myself similarly to Nola,

897
00:41:17,600 --> 00:41:20,200
Speaker 2: being talked into it. If it's him, or you know

898
00:41:20,480 --> 00:41:22,879
Speaker 2: Hurst and Waldrop, or you know a couple different guys,

899
00:41:22,920 --> 00:41:25,800
Speaker 2: Matthew Boyd, I could be talked into it, but he

900
00:41:25,920 --> 00:41:26,800
Speaker 2: is far from a target.

901
00:41:27,040 --> 00:41:27,760
Speaker 3: Far from a target.

902
00:41:27,880 --> 00:41:29,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think he might be a bounce back candidate.

903
00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:31,640
Speaker 1: If I'm being honest with you, I think there's a

904
00:41:31,680 --> 00:41:33,879
Speaker 1: little bit of like scrap and throw out the year

905
00:41:34,719 --> 00:41:37,520
Speaker 1: that may not hold. He's a tinkerer. I've actually talked

906
00:41:37,560 --> 00:41:39,600
Speaker 1: to Bryce Miller like every year for the last three years,

907
00:41:39,640 --> 00:41:42,279
Speaker 1: and every single season it's like he's doing something new,

908
00:41:42,680 --> 00:41:44,920
Speaker 1: and maybe that needs to stop at some point, because

909
00:41:45,080 --> 00:41:46,960
Speaker 1: I think you can actually also look at some of

910
00:41:47,080 --> 00:41:49,560
Speaker 1: what he was doing last season to be the problem,

911
00:41:49,680 --> 00:41:54,200
Speaker 1: specifically the sinker. The sinker really regressed. He was throwing

912
00:41:54,239 --> 00:41:57,359
Speaker 1: it the second most in twenty twenty four. In twenty

913
00:41:57,400 --> 00:42:00,279
Speaker 1: twenty five, you still percentages was pretty close. It came

914
00:42:00,320 --> 00:42:03,719
Speaker 1: his third most thrown pitch. But check this out year

915
00:42:03,760 --> 00:42:07,120
Speaker 1: prior to two forty eight average against his sinker this

916
00:42:07,320 --> 00:42:11,720
Speaker 1: year three twenty eight more important than just batting average

917
00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:15,160
Speaker 1: ninety one average exit velocity against the sinker in twenty

918
00:42:15,239 --> 00:42:18,600
Speaker 1: twenty four ninety six point one. This past year he

919
00:42:18,719 --> 00:42:22,840
Speaker 1: got absolutely sumshed on his sinker. So something's gonna have

920
00:42:22,880 --> 00:42:25,120
Speaker 1: to change there. Plus he kind of scrapped his sweeper,

921
00:42:25,680 --> 00:42:27,960
Speaker 1: had a little bit better with rate. I think that

922
00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:33,080
Speaker 1: with the ballpark factors, maybe can help elicit less barreled

923
00:42:33,120 --> 00:42:35,680
Speaker 1: and hard hit contact than we can up the K percentage.

924
00:42:36,040 --> 00:42:39,680
Speaker 1: But he's absolutely tanked in drafts from the previous season.

925
00:42:39,880 --> 00:42:41,800
Speaker 1: He might be someone that's on a bounce back, but

926
00:42:42,320 --> 00:42:44,640
Speaker 1: you know it's a risk and he's a good maybe

927
00:42:44,800 --> 00:42:47,280
Speaker 1: SP seven or something like that, but he has fallen

928
00:42:47,320 --> 00:42:49,480
Speaker 1: in drafts year of a year if you were not aware.

929
00:42:49,800 --> 00:42:53,719
Speaker 1: He is someone that is not from twenty twenty five

930
00:42:53,800 --> 00:42:57,279
Speaker 1: to twenty six, someone that is going to be someone

931
00:42:57,360 --> 00:42:59,480
Speaker 1: you're gonna remember as a player that you know I

932
00:42:59,600 --> 00:43:01,920
Speaker 1: drafted him before. Why am I not getting him this year?

933
00:43:02,000 --> 00:43:06,719
Speaker 1: Because everything's stunk? Two players left. These are hitters, These

934
00:43:06,840 --> 00:43:09,719
Speaker 1: are big names. In their space, and I think this

935
00:43:09,920 --> 00:43:12,799
Speaker 1: kind of falls into the most what are we doing

936
00:43:12,880 --> 00:43:15,879
Speaker 1: with these guys now territory. Coming in at number nine

937
00:43:16,040 --> 00:43:18,680
Speaker 1: on the list is one of the most popular catching

938
00:43:18,760 --> 00:43:21,840
Speaker 1: prospects who has fallen off the board. Adley Rutchman. He

939
00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:24,200
Speaker 1: was Now I have to give the caveat here, try

940
00:43:24,280 --> 00:43:27,680
Speaker 1: not to do catchers in this because NFBC absolutely overinflates catchers,

941
00:43:27,719 --> 00:43:29,719
Speaker 1: so you know that. So the ADP I'm going to

942
00:43:29,760 --> 00:43:35,000
Speaker 1: give you off of NFBC is inflated. But that's going

943
00:43:35,040 --> 00:43:38,080
Speaker 1: to tell a weird story. It's one sixty two. So

944
00:43:38,200 --> 00:43:40,800
Speaker 1: catchers go higher in these formats. So in a standard

945
00:43:40,880 --> 00:43:42,960
Speaker 1: catching format this year, you are probably going to see

946
00:43:43,000 --> 00:43:46,759
Speaker 1: Alley Ruchmand more outside the top two hundred. He was going,

947
00:43:46,880 --> 00:43:50,920
Speaker 1: according in single catcher ADPs last season on Fantasy Pros

948
00:43:51,160 --> 00:43:54,719
Speaker 1: before the year started, sixtieth, so that was like number two,

949
00:43:55,040 --> 00:43:57,040
Speaker 1: probably number two catcher, maybe number three in a lot

950
00:43:57,080 --> 00:44:00,880
Speaker 1: of places. Just everything fell apart. He's at a regressive

951
00:44:00,920 --> 00:44:03,959
Speaker 1: batting average for three straight years. He was injured. Power

952
00:44:04,080 --> 00:44:07,160
Speaker 1: numbers kind of fell off. OBP is completely tanked over

953
00:44:07,200 --> 00:44:10,240
Speaker 1: the last two seasons. He is walking and not striking

954
00:44:10,280 --> 00:44:12,120
Speaker 1: out a bunch and you actually still see some of

955
00:44:12,120 --> 00:44:14,600
Speaker 1: the underlying metrics there, but it's equating to a whole

956
00:44:14,640 --> 00:44:17,879
Speaker 1: bunch of nothing. So Adi Richmand is free this year.

957
00:44:17,960 --> 00:44:21,640
Speaker 1: He has completely fallen in drafts. Do you think it's justified?

958
00:44:21,800 --> 00:44:23,160
Speaker 1: Or is he someone that can bounce back?

959
00:44:24,239 --> 00:44:27,319
Speaker 2: So I mentioned Merrill earlier as the guy I took

960
00:44:27,360 --> 00:44:29,560
Speaker 2: in my first draft of the year. Reuchmand was also

961
00:44:29,640 --> 00:44:30,040
Speaker 2: a guy.

962
00:44:29,960 --> 00:44:33,879
Speaker 3: That I took in that draft. I was the where

963
00:44:34,040 --> 00:44:36,000
Speaker 3: is it the love to catcher? This is a two

964
00:44:36,080 --> 00:44:36,640
Speaker 3: catcher draft.

965
00:44:36,719 --> 00:44:39,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, most of my leagues are NFBC, but it was

966
00:44:39,239 --> 00:44:42,319
Speaker 2: sorry it was a twelfth round with Rechman. I feel

967
00:44:42,400 --> 00:44:44,279
Speaker 2: like he'll probably be in that one fifty to two

968
00:44:44,360 --> 00:44:46,960
Speaker 2: hundred range and he feels like a really good bounce

969
00:44:47,040 --> 00:44:49,800
Speaker 2: back candidate. So he dealt with injuries last year of

970
00:44:49,880 --> 00:44:52,920
Speaker 2: course cost him time with the abdomen, the oblique, it

971
00:44:53,080 --> 00:44:55,120
Speaker 2: was a head injury. He was all kinds of banked

972
00:44:55,200 --> 00:44:58,360
Speaker 2: up last year, but the numbers below the surface didn't

973
00:44:58,480 --> 00:45:00,960
Speaker 2: really suffer. He still walked eleven percent of the time,

974
00:45:01,320 --> 00:45:04,920
Speaker 2: fifteen percent strikeout rate. The barrel rate is not amazing

975
00:45:04,960 --> 00:45:06,600
Speaker 2: a seven and a half percent, but that's what he's

976
00:45:06,640 --> 00:45:09,279
Speaker 2: been thirty eight hard hit dittoh, It's literally been that

977
00:45:09,440 --> 00:45:11,319
Speaker 2: every year of his career, thirty six to thirty eight

978
00:45:11,360 --> 00:45:12,000
Speaker 2: percent hard hit.

979
00:45:12,080 --> 00:45:14,319
Speaker 3: So nothing changed in the bat at bald data.

980
00:45:14,400 --> 00:45:16,880
Speaker 2: He was chasing less thirty percent, chase rate down to

981
00:45:16,920 --> 00:45:20,040
Speaker 2: twenty two, better contact rate eighty nine to ninety one

982
00:45:20,120 --> 00:45:23,040
Speaker 2: in the zone. Swinging strike rate went from six point eight,

983
00:45:23,080 --> 00:45:25,760
Speaker 2: which was already really good, down to five point four percent.

984
00:45:26,160 --> 00:45:28,200
Speaker 2: And I think something that hurt the counting stats as

985
00:45:28,239 --> 00:45:30,200
Speaker 2: a whole, and it hurt Baltimore was that they were

986
00:45:30,239 --> 00:45:32,040
Speaker 2: just injured as a team last year. They could not

987
00:45:32,160 --> 00:45:34,760
Speaker 2: stay healthy. The team was awful. They don't have pitching,

988
00:45:34,800 --> 00:45:37,720
Speaker 2: but that's another conversation. The offense just couldn't stay healthy.

989
00:45:38,040 --> 00:45:39,600
Speaker 2: So I think you give him a full year, you

990
00:45:39,680 --> 00:45:41,720
Speaker 2: play one hundred and twenty one hundred and thirty games,

991
00:45:42,000 --> 00:45:44,520
Speaker 2: we can see Adley bounce back, and the projections expected

992
00:45:44,560 --> 00:45:46,960
Speaker 2: Steamer has him down for seventeen homers, a two to

993
00:45:47,000 --> 00:45:50,120
Speaker 2: fifty five batting average, and a one to fifteen WRC plus.

994
00:45:50,160 --> 00:45:52,440
Speaker 2: I think if you are punting catchers, he could be

995
00:45:52,520 --> 00:45:54,440
Speaker 2: your second catcher in a two catch or format. And

996
00:45:54,640 --> 00:45:56,919
Speaker 2: even if you're punting catchers in a one catcher league,

997
00:45:57,000 --> 00:45:58,160
Speaker 2: which you probably should be doing.

998
00:45:58,200 --> 00:45:59,319
Speaker 3: Anyway, you could take.

999
00:45:59,239 --> 00:46:01,719
Speaker 2: Ali Rutchman the seventeenth round and you might end up

1000
00:46:01,760 --> 00:46:02,680
Speaker 2: with a top five catcher.

1001
00:46:02,719 --> 00:46:04,240
Speaker 3: Again, would not be at all surprised.

1002
00:46:04,280 --> 00:46:06,960
Speaker 2: He's still twenty seven, still a top prospect, and I

1003
00:46:07,000 --> 00:46:08,920
Speaker 2: think the Orioles are still going to be invested in him.

1004
00:46:10,080 --> 00:46:13,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, whether he's traded or he stays. I think there's

1005
00:46:13,040 --> 00:46:15,000
Speaker 1: something to pay attention to the ballpark. You know, he's

1006
00:46:15,040 --> 00:46:19,320
Speaker 1: a switch hitter and the right hand so the side

1007
00:46:19,360 --> 00:46:21,880
Speaker 1: for right handed hitters has become a little less hitter friendly,

1008
00:46:21,920 --> 00:46:23,960
Speaker 1: the left hand side has become a little bit home

1009
00:46:24,040 --> 00:46:28,080
Speaker 1: run happy. He hit his best batting average was as

1010
00:46:28,160 --> 00:46:30,880
Speaker 1: a right handed hitter, but it was about seventy points

1011
00:46:30,920 --> 00:46:33,759
Speaker 1: lower than the year before. So he had under two

1012
00:46:33,840 --> 00:46:35,719
Speaker 1: hundred at home. So what I'm getting at is like

1013
00:46:35,760 --> 00:46:39,440
Speaker 1: the home ballpark factor as a guy that he doesn't

1014
00:46:39,680 --> 00:46:41,640
Speaker 1: I mean, at least he's regressed as a guy that

1015
00:46:41,719 --> 00:46:43,400
Speaker 1: puts the ball in the air and pulls it. You know,

1016
00:46:43,480 --> 00:46:45,120
Speaker 1: so if he has a good launch angle, but he

1017
00:46:45,160 --> 00:46:47,040
Speaker 1: lost five degrees on it this year, and he lost

1018
00:46:47,719 --> 00:46:50,160
Speaker 1: I think about seven percent. He was an elite twenty

1019
00:46:50,200 --> 00:46:53,200
Speaker 1: three point two percent pulled air guy in twenty twenty fours,

1020
00:46:53,239 --> 00:46:54,719
Speaker 1: that means he got the ball in the air, pulled it,

1021
00:46:55,000 --> 00:46:57,200
Speaker 1: and that would equate to good homers. This year that

1022
00:46:57,320 --> 00:46:59,760
Speaker 1: was around sixteen percent and he lost his launch angle.

1023
00:47:00,200 --> 00:47:02,200
Speaker 1: I think those are things you can equate to injuries

1024
00:47:02,480 --> 00:47:04,520
Speaker 1: because a lot of the other bear of the stuff.

1025
00:47:04,680 --> 00:47:07,040
Speaker 1: Barrel's a ball about the same, hits the ball about

1026
00:47:07,080 --> 00:47:09,640
Speaker 1: the same amount, average evs the same, Like a lot

1027
00:47:09,719 --> 00:47:11,520
Speaker 1: of the stuff is the same. There are a lot

1028
00:47:11,560 --> 00:47:14,640
Speaker 1: of injuries out there, and I do wonder if there

1029
00:47:14,680 --> 00:47:16,799
Speaker 1: is a little bit of ballpark and if he can

1030
00:47:16,880 --> 00:47:19,400
Speaker 1: bounce back. So with that, I think in a lot

1031
00:47:19,440 --> 00:47:24,200
Speaker 1: of places he's actually the fall is value, except the

1032
00:47:24,360 --> 00:47:27,520
Speaker 1: name value could push him up if he's healthy. I

1033
00:47:27,520 --> 00:47:29,120
Speaker 1: would just warn you that this is a player that

1034
00:47:29,239 --> 00:47:32,040
Speaker 1: is falling in drafts that could skyrocket back up if

1035
00:47:32,080 --> 00:47:33,799
Speaker 1: there's some positive takes on it. But I think I'm

1036
00:47:33,800 --> 00:47:36,080
Speaker 1: in agreement with you that he's someone that we can

1037
00:47:36,200 --> 00:47:38,279
Speaker 1: invest in. But there's no doubt about compared to where

1038
00:47:38,280 --> 00:47:41,440
Speaker 1: he was last year, he's completely tanked. The last player

1039
00:47:41,480 --> 00:47:43,600
Speaker 1: on the list. I had to bring him up because

1040
00:47:43,640 --> 00:47:45,239
Speaker 1: you want to talk about year and a year out

1041
00:47:45,239 --> 00:47:47,840
Speaker 1: of a player that is falling in drafts. It is

1042
00:47:48,160 --> 00:47:52,400
Speaker 1: always this guy. Then he comes back up. Will he

1043
00:47:52,560 --> 00:47:58,680
Speaker 1: pop back up this year? Mike Trout? Mike Trout ninetieth

1044
00:47:58,880 --> 00:48:01,600
Speaker 1: last year, but I want to point out he was

1045
00:48:01,680 --> 00:48:04,600
Speaker 1: going way later. It was like one thirty one forty.

1046
00:48:04,680 --> 00:48:08,080
Speaker 1: But then there's health. Mike Trout's gonna dh things are

1047
00:48:08,160 --> 00:48:12,200
Speaker 1: looking good. Me I ruin it. He ended as a

1048
00:48:12,239 --> 00:48:15,720
Speaker 1: top one hundred player this year. His ADP is around

1049
00:48:15,840 --> 00:48:18,680
Speaker 1: one ninety eight in draft champions. To be fair, he

1050
00:48:18,880 --> 00:48:22,200
Speaker 1: did have probably the what is this the mosted bats

1051
00:48:22,320 --> 00:48:27,800
Speaker 1: he's had this past season since twenty nineteen, twenty six homers,

1052
00:48:27,880 --> 00:48:31,080
Speaker 1: couple stolen bases, stopped running after it looked like maybe

1053
00:48:31,080 --> 00:48:33,200
Speaker 1: he's running more. His batting average looks like it is

1054
00:48:33,280 --> 00:48:36,400
Speaker 1: completely tanked. He hit two twenty expected batting average for

1055
00:48:36,440 --> 00:48:39,000
Speaker 1: the first time. To not say a better story the

1056
00:48:39,080 --> 00:48:42,960
Speaker 1: year before had he only hit two twenty with an

1057
00:48:43,040 --> 00:48:44,960
Speaker 1: expected of two seventy. This year, I'm sorry, I hit

1058
00:48:45,000 --> 00:48:48,160
Speaker 1: two thirty two with an expected batting average about the same.

1059
00:48:48,680 --> 00:48:52,120
Speaker 1: More importantly than anything else, strikeouts are ridiculous. Thirty two

1060
00:48:52,160 --> 00:48:56,560
Speaker 1: percent that completely fell apart. So Mike Trout clearly has

1061
00:48:56,600 --> 00:48:59,600
Speaker 1: fallen in drafts. I'm more interested. Do you think he

1062
00:48:59,719 --> 00:49:02,520
Speaker 1: is to rise again to a big, great degree if

1063
00:49:02,600 --> 00:49:05,360
Speaker 1: we are sold that you know more dhing he's healthy?

1064
00:49:05,560 --> 00:49:08,040
Speaker 1: Or are we finally done with Mike Trout.

1065
00:49:08,360 --> 00:49:10,400
Speaker 2: So I was going through some tweets of mine and

1066
00:49:10,480 --> 00:49:12,560
Speaker 2: searching names just to see what I said about players

1067
00:49:12,640 --> 00:49:15,160
Speaker 2: last year and stuff, and Mike Trout. I put in

1068
00:49:15,239 --> 00:49:17,040
Speaker 2: Mike Trout's name last night just to see and it

1069
00:49:17,160 --> 00:49:19,759
Speaker 2: was a in reply to a Ryan Bloomfield tweet about

1070
00:49:19,760 --> 00:49:22,400
Speaker 2: how Mike Trout had gotten more expensive from October to November,

1071
00:49:22,560 --> 00:49:25,440
Speaker 2: and I replied with that classic made it through November.

1072
00:49:25,560 --> 00:49:28,360
Speaker 2: Healthy bump for Mike Trout. And I think it's because

1073
00:49:28,640 --> 00:49:30,800
Speaker 2: everybody wants to draft Mike Trout in the back of

1074
00:49:30,840 --> 00:49:33,400
Speaker 2: their mind. Mike Trout is a Hall of Famer. He's

1075
00:49:33,440 --> 00:49:35,600
Speaker 2: a superstar player in his peak, one of the best

1076
00:49:35,640 --> 00:49:38,400
Speaker 2: players ever. YadA, YadA, YadA. People want to draft those players.

1077
00:49:38,440 --> 00:49:40,600
Speaker 2: It's why you'll see guys go higher on Garrett Cole

1078
00:49:40,640 --> 00:49:43,719
Speaker 2: than they should and Clayton Kershaw every year, Sure's or

1079
00:49:43,760 --> 00:49:46,759
Speaker 2: whoever it is. And Trout is exactly that same type

1080
00:49:46,760 --> 00:49:48,799
Speaker 2: of player where you want him to have one more

1081
00:49:48,880 --> 00:49:51,440
Speaker 2: season maybe he's got one more in the tank, but

1082
00:49:51,600 --> 00:49:53,399
Speaker 2: I don't think he does anymore. And I've been beating

1083
00:49:53,440 --> 00:49:55,080
Speaker 2: that drum the last couple of years off Mike Trout

1084
00:49:55,160 --> 00:49:57,760
Speaker 2: probably has one more year. This year he stayed healthy

1085
00:49:57,800 --> 00:50:00,279
Speaker 2: five hundred and fifty six played appearances, and on the

1086
00:50:00,320 --> 00:50:03,279
Speaker 2: Player Raider he was right beside Austin Hayes, who had

1087
00:50:03,320 --> 00:50:05,440
Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty fewer played appearances than him, and

1088
00:50:05,440 --> 00:50:07,360
Speaker 2: I think that kind of tells the whole story. He

1089
00:50:07,440 --> 00:50:10,040
Speaker 2: strikes out thirty two percent of the time. The twenty

1090
00:50:10,080 --> 00:50:12,280
Speaker 2: six home runs are nice, but that kind of strikeout

1091
00:50:12,360 --> 00:50:15,160
Speaker 2: rate is unbelievable. And I think he's completely changed as

1092
00:50:15,200 --> 00:50:18,560
Speaker 2: a hitter in his quote unquote older age. He sold

1093
00:50:18,560 --> 00:50:20,640
Speaker 2: out for power more as he got older. But also

1094
00:50:20,719 --> 00:50:24,480
Speaker 2: the swing rate is really low at this point, thirty

1095
00:50:24,560 --> 00:50:27,400
Speaker 2: eight percent swing rate. It's the fifth lowest in all

1096
00:50:27,480 --> 00:50:29,440
Speaker 2: of baseball. I don't know who he is as a

1097
00:50:29,520 --> 00:50:31,520
Speaker 2: hitter anymore, and I'm not sure that he knows who

1098
00:50:31,560 --> 00:50:32,960
Speaker 2: he is as a hitter anymore. I think he can

1099
00:50:33,000 --> 00:50:35,000
Speaker 2: still hit twenty homers, but it'll come with a low

1100
00:50:35,040 --> 00:50:37,520
Speaker 2: batting average in a bad lineup, and like you mentioned,

1101
00:50:37,520 --> 00:50:39,759
Speaker 2: people will still want to push him up. All it

1102
00:50:39,800 --> 00:50:42,000
Speaker 2: takes is one guy in every room to believe in

1103
00:50:42,080 --> 00:50:43,880
Speaker 2: Mike Trout and to push him up a round or

1104
00:50:43,880 --> 00:50:47,000
Speaker 2: two past ADP And at this stage in the game,

1105
00:50:47,040 --> 00:50:49,200
Speaker 2: people still probably there's probably one guy in every room

1106
00:50:49,200 --> 00:50:51,600
Speaker 2: who's like, Mike Trout. You know what I'm gonna do it.

1107
00:50:51,760 --> 00:50:52,200
Speaker 3: This is the game.

1108
00:50:52,200 --> 00:50:54,759
Speaker 1: I'm right here, Joe, I'm right here. I was the

1109
00:50:54,840 --> 00:50:58,360
Speaker 1: guy last year. But let me point out something. He

1110
00:50:59,680 --> 00:51:02,960
Speaker 1: return tarned value on the big case that I was

1111
00:51:03,040 --> 00:51:05,840
Speaker 1: making when he was going in the one fifties, the

1112
00:51:05,920 --> 00:51:08,360
Speaker 1: one forties and stuff like that. It's hard to argue

1113
00:51:08,440 --> 00:51:11,080
Speaker 1: twenty six homers. I mean, I guess maybe I need

1114
00:51:11,160 --> 00:51:13,520
Speaker 1: to take that backtrack a little bit, like the batting

1115
00:51:13,560 --> 00:51:17,000
Speaker 1: average didn't really necessarily help. But sixty four runs, seventy

1116
00:51:17,040 --> 00:51:20,160
Speaker 1: three rbi, twenty six homers. He played games like I

1117
00:51:20,200 --> 00:51:23,040
Speaker 1: guess the theory of my initial take was kind of there.

1118
00:51:23,680 --> 00:51:26,160
Speaker 1: But you mentioned the profile of who he is has

1119
00:51:26,200 --> 00:51:28,759
Speaker 1: really changed. And the biggest thing I can tell, because

1120
00:51:28,760 --> 00:51:30,239
Speaker 1: I agree with you that he's like selling out for

1121
00:51:30,320 --> 00:51:34,960
Speaker 1: more power, is he became It's funny his run value

1122
00:51:35,080 --> 00:51:39,719
Speaker 1: against like fastballs, forcing fastballs specifically is uniquely high. It

1123
00:51:39,840 --> 00:51:42,360
Speaker 1: was a fifteen run value that's like elite in baseball.

1124
00:51:42,640 --> 00:51:45,319
Speaker 1: It's because of what he looks like, what he's doing.

1125
00:51:46,160 --> 00:51:50,560
Speaker 1: It looks like he is attempting to try to hit

1126
00:51:50,920 --> 00:51:54,359
Speaker 1: some of this secondary stuff and it's only working off

1127
00:51:54,400 --> 00:51:56,759
Speaker 1: of fastballs. Either all of his homers are coming off

1128
00:51:56,760 --> 00:51:59,480
Speaker 1: of fastballs, but also his K percentage, so maybe this

1129
00:51:59,560 --> 00:52:02,360
Speaker 1: makes more. I'm saying it hit a thirty four percent

1130
00:52:02,480 --> 00:52:06,080
Speaker 1: K percentage against forcing fastballs for perspective, sixteen percent the

1131
00:52:06,160 --> 00:52:09,120
Speaker 1: year prior. So I think what it looks like is

1132
00:52:09,200 --> 00:52:11,959
Speaker 1: he is becoming a reactionary fastball hitter where the k's

1133
00:52:11,960 --> 00:52:15,520
Speaker 1: are going higher. He is crushing and making you know,

1134
00:52:15,719 --> 00:52:20,279
Speaker 1: content making not just contact, but he's making impact off

1135
00:52:20,320 --> 00:52:23,440
Speaker 1: of fastballs. But it's done in this really poor way

1136
00:52:23,480 --> 00:52:26,040
Speaker 1: where he's striking out more, losing batting average because I

1137
00:52:26,120 --> 00:52:27,920
Speaker 1: think he is attempting to sell out for some of

1138
00:52:27,960 --> 00:52:31,359
Speaker 1: the secondary stuff. He had an expected batting average thirty

1139
00:52:31,400 --> 00:52:34,920
Speaker 1: points higher against breaking pitches and fifty points higher against

1140
00:52:34,960 --> 00:52:38,560
Speaker 1: off speed, so like he's underperforming against those pitches, and

1141
00:52:38,719 --> 00:52:42,320
Speaker 1: I think that is kind of being viewed in this

1142
00:52:42,680 --> 00:52:45,279
Speaker 1: reactionary fastball space. So all of that is just like

1143
00:52:45,440 --> 00:52:47,439
Speaker 1: there's a bunch of conjecture that I'm throwing out here. Listen,

1144
00:52:47,640 --> 00:52:49,880
Speaker 1: he has changed as a hitter. He's striking out a

1145
00:52:49,920 --> 00:52:52,560
Speaker 1: lot more. The fastball, the breaking pitch stuff looks weird.

1146
00:52:52,640 --> 00:52:55,960
Speaker 1: He doesn't stay healthy, he doesn't run. There's still big,

1147
00:52:56,120 --> 00:52:59,279
Speaker 1: impactful bat that's floating out there. But for us to

1148
00:52:59,320 --> 00:53:01,440
Speaker 1: predict that it's any more than twenty five homers with

1149
00:53:01,480 --> 00:53:04,040
Speaker 1: no stolen bases seventy five to seventy five, it's silly.

1150
00:53:05,160 --> 00:53:07,279
Speaker 1: The fall makes sense of where he is. I just

1151
00:53:07,320 --> 00:53:10,720
Speaker 1: don't think he's going to rise again. The Mic Trout rising,

1152
00:53:10,800 --> 00:53:13,080
Speaker 1: I think ends this year. We are done with him

1153
00:53:13,120 --> 00:53:16,800
Speaker 1: officially going low and drop and flying up boards. That

1154
00:53:16,960 --> 00:53:19,200
Speaker 1: is officially done. He does belong down here. He has

1155
00:53:19,280 --> 00:53:22,319
Speaker 1: fallen in drafts, and do you think it's deserved? Love

1156
00:53:22,360 --> 00:53:24,840
Speaker 1: to hear your Mic Trout takes in the comments below.

1157
00:53:25,160 --> 00:53:27,640
Speaker 1: Who else is falling in drafts that maybe you don't

1158
00:53:27,760 --> 00:53:30,080
Speaker 1: buy or that you think needs to fall a whole

1159
00:53:30,120 --> 00:53:32,400
Speaker 1: bunch more? And what was the one on this that

1160
00:53:32,520 --> 00:53:35,960
Speaker 1: hits you the hardest? You can drop comments below on YouTube.

1161
00:53:36,000 --> 00:53:38,120
Speaker 1: We'd love to see it, We'd love to react to it.

1162
00:53:38,600 --> 00:53:41,120
Speaker 1: As these ten players are falling in drafts? What do

1163
00:53:41,200 --> 00:53:43,000
Speaker 1: you guys think? Make sure you guys are subscribe to

1164
00:53:43,080 --> 00:53:46,839
Speaker 1: the channel YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros MLB. Make

1165
00:53:46,880 --> 00:53:49,120
Speaker 1: sure you check out all the tools as well, and

1166
00:53:49,400 --> 00:53:51,240
Speaker 1: we want you guys to be involved because the Fantasy

1167
00:53:51,280 --> 00:53:54,759
Speaker 1: Pros MLB channel is ready to start locking in. We

1168
00:53:54,840 --> 00:53:56,600
Speaker 1: got the Twitch channel we're leading off is going to

1169
00:53:56,640 --> 00:53:59,279
Speaker 1: be again this year. Twitch dot tv slash Fantasy Pros

1170
00:53:59,360 --> 00:54:01,480
Speaker 1: and you can join the on discord. MLB is going

1171
00:54:01,520 --> 00:54:03,719
Speaker 1: to be popping off, So make sure you're their Fantasypros

1172
00:54:03,760 --> 00:54:06,960
Speaker 1: dot com slash chat completely free. Get in there, hang

1173
00:54:07,040 --> 00:54:08,800
Speaker 1: out with us. We'd love to have you. That is

1174
00:54:08,840 --> 00:54:10,279
Speaker 1: going to do it for the episode. Thank you guys

1175
00:54:10,320 --> 00:54:12,080
Speaker 1: so much for hanging out with us. For Joe Rico,

1176
00:54:12,160 --> 00:54:14,000
Speaker 1: I'm Chris Welsh. We'll talk to you next time right

1177
00:54:14,040 --> 00:54:15,160
Speaker 1: here on Fantasy Pros.

1178
00:54:15,600 --> 00:54:18,759
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball podcast.

1179
00:54:19,040 --> 00:54:21,440
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1180
00:54:21,480 --> 00:54:24,360
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1181
00:54:24,480 --> 00:54:28,120
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1182
00:54:28,200 --> 00:54:31,120
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1183
00:54:31,160 --> 00:54:33,360
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