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Speaker 1: dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to the Favorites, the

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Speaker 1: podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Mellman,

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Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. Folks, we are

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Speaker 1: ten days away from the Bengals and the Rams in

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Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. Simon Hunter, my bff, my companion in

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Speaker 1: Mike and Padre professional better brother. We talked about it

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Speaker 1: on Tuesday. This line is moving. It's now Rams four

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Speaker 1: and a half before we bring in our very very

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Speaker 1: special guest, who most people should know because I quote

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Speaker 1: him every single week. On the podcast. I'm not going

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Speaker 1: to name him yet before we get to that. Simon Hunter,

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Speaker 1: I can't believe the lines at four and a half

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Speaker 1: and I bet at Bengals plus four. Weve bed Bengals

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Speaker 1: three and a half. I mean, oh my god, this

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Speaker 1: line is running chat. We'll probably dive more into it

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Speaker 1: next week, but as you sit here today, I can

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Speaker 1: tell you it had a ten sharp calls. They were

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Speaker 1: on the Rams. They love the Rams. People on the

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Speaker 1: Bengals is just a hedge position. They have a future

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Speaker 1: on the Rams, and they're just taking the four and

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Speaker 1: a half, taking the four with Cincinnati and just a

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Speaker 1: hedge position. So it's interesting now where I'm starting to

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Speaker 1: look at the numbers and hear what other books are doing.

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Speaker 1: It sounds like it's a public dog in the Bengals.

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Speaker 1: The public loves the Bengals and the professionals love the Ramps.

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Speaker 1: So it's definitely interesting we break it down next week

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Speaker 1: to see where this line ends up, because I honestly

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Speaker 1: can see it touch in five that just the professional

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Speaker 1: money and the pros I've talked to, they're just gonna

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Speaker 1: keep taking this number up. They think this number should

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Speaker 1: be six. I told you I had the number at three.

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Speaker 1: That's that's really rare. I'm off by three points to

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Speaker 1: other professionals, so it's it's definitely keep moving. In my opinion,

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Speaker 1: I don't think it's gonna stop here four and a half.

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Speaker 1: But we've seen we've seen it just sit here now

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Speaker 1: for a day and a half at four and a half. Wow,

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Speaker 1: this is gonna be so uncomfortable. For the next few days,

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Speaker 1: we will get deeper into sharp calls. Normally will do

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Speaker 1: sharp calls on Thursday, which is the response that the

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Speaker 1: professional betters we know have to what we talked about

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Speaker 1: on Tuesday, and we'll get deeper into that next week.

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Speaker 1: We will have two podcasts next week. We will have

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Speaker 1: Chris Raybon and Sean Kerner the co host with Simon

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Speaker 1: and I on Convince Me, our Sunday morning preview show.

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Speaker 1: They will be breaking down all of the Super Bowl

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Speaker 1: props with us. We will have our show on Thursday

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Speaker 1: where Simon and I go deep, deep, deep into the

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Speaker 1: game and we had the entire two weeks to examine it.

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Speaker 1: We have both made early bets on the Bengals thinking

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Speaker 1: the line was going to go the other way, so

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Speaker 1: we're a little disappointed in that it time to introduce

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Speaker 1: our very special guests. He is one of the original

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Speaker 1: Action Network superstars. He is the co host of just

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Speaker 1: about every podcast we do on the Action Network, including

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Speaker 1: our Big Bets on Campus podcast. During the football season,

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Speaker 1: that's college football. Now, it's basketball season, it's Stucky, It's

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Speaker 1: the Boys from three Man. We've it's a whole cavalcade

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Speaker 1: of superstars. You can check out the Big Bets on

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Speaker 1: Campus podcast if you're Jones. In for some more betting

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Speaker 1: action for college basketball, you can check out the Buckets

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Speaker 1: podcast on the Action Network if you're Jones and for

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Speaker 1: more NBA betting, the Prime Minister of the Genera Nation, Stucky,

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Speaker 1: let's going on. Thanks for having me. I will say

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Speaker 1: that what you guys are talking about, you guys can

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Speaker 1: hope that history continues in the Super Bowl in that

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Speaker 1: in the Super Bowls, the straight up winner has gone

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Speaker 1: forty seven six and two against the spread forty six

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Speaker 1: and two. The last twelve Super Bowl winners have also

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Speaker 1: covered the spread. The last favorite to win and not

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Speaker 1: cover was the Steelers back in two thousand nine. They

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Speaker 1: were six and a half point favorites against the Cardinals

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Speaker 1: in that really thrilling super Bowl. There's been twenty eight

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Speaker 1: Super Bowls that have had a line of six points

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Speaker 1: or less in all the winner also covered, fourteen underdogs

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Speaker 1: have one outright, and fourteen favorites have won and covered.

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Speaker 1: And you set a public dog and this is surprising.

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl public money can't matter because everyone is betting,

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Speaker 1: and everyone's mom, uncle and and those bets will tend

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Speaker 1: to come in closer to kick. You know, most casual

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Speaker 1: betters aren't betting the Super Bowl two weeks before the game.

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Speaker 1: But for what it's worth, public sides in the Super

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Speaker 1: Bowl or nine and nine straight up and ten and

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Speaker 1: eight against the spread in the Super Bowl since two

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Speaker 1: thousand four. So those are some things that might give

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Speaker 1: you some comfort with your Bengals position that has gone

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Speaker 1: the other way. I have no comfort from any of this, Stucky,

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Speaker 1: I am gonna be uncomfortable for the next two weeks.

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Speaker 1: But I like that you kicked it off thematically because

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Speaker 1: you're on the show today every single Thursday. Here's my

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Speaker 1: morning ritual. I've talked about this on the podcast before

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Speaker 1: I'll get up in the morning. That's the day Like

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Speaker 1: I don't exercise that morning. I block Thursdays out, maybe

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Speaker 1: I'll drive my kid to school. I listened to you

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Speaker 1: and Chris Raybon on the Action Network podcast. I'll take

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Speaker 1: a shipload of notes, and you always have the most

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Speaker 1: amazing stature. You're going too bet Labs. You do a

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Speaker 1: lot of research, You figure out a lot of things

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Speaker 1: that sort of look at trends and angles and whatever.

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Speaker 1: So this podcast is entirely about what are the trends

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Speaker 1: and angles that we're seeing for this Super Bowl. But

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Speaker 1: before we get to, let me ask you, do you

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Speaker 1: have a lean on this game at this point? Yeah?

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Speaker 1: I would lean as of right now the Bengals and

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Speaker 1: anything I make it like Simon right around three. So

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Speaker 1: I wasn't running to bet it because I wanted to

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Speaker 1: see where the line would go and try and get

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Speaker 1: a sense for that. And then it looked like there

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Speaker 1: were signs that it might pick up. You want to

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Speaker 1: get the four and a half before it goes to

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Speaker 1: four if you want the Bengals. But you know, if

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Speaker 1: it goes up to five five and a half, it's

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Speaker 1: it's kind of a dead range. And then the next

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Speaker 1: step would be when it go to six. I don't

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Speaker 1: think that it will, but so I'm kind of in waiting, Semde,

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Speaker 1: but I would agree with your sentiment there. The I

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Speaker 1: think one of the most interesting aspects of this Super

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Speaker 1: Bowl in particular is that the Rams are hosting it.

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Speaker 1: So what do you make home field advantage? And you know,

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Speaker 1: do you make it? Nothing? Right? Home field advantage has

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Speaker 1: been diminishing over time anyway, the Rams, the Rams have

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Speaker 1: a great home field and the tickets are like five

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Speaker 1: million dollars a pieces. It's just gonna be you know,

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Speaker 1: it's usually a corporate event anyway, So what is that

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Speaker 1: worth and is it worth one? Is it worth two

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Speaker 1: points that could make the difference in someone's decision. I

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Speaker 1: tend to think it's worth like a half point or so.

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Speaker 1: The Ramsta familiarity, I think that you know, Bick, they

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Speaker 1: having coach in the Super Bowl fore matters for preparation,

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Speaker 1: avoiding the distractions and things of that nature. That it's

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Speaker 1: actually only the second time a team has hosted a

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl in its home state. And you know the

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Speaker 1: other temp and Bay Buccaneers you better got you better

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Speaker 1: gotten that. So by the way, Brady Brady, Tom Brady

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Speaker 1: is no longer than the NFL. He's no long He's

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Speaker 1: not playing in this game. He's played an eighteen percent

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Speaker 1: of all Super Bowls, and since two thousand of ten,

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Speaker 1: there's only been six Super Bowls without Tom Brady. Underdogs

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Speaker 1: have gone four and too straight up in those games.

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Speaker 1: So we have we have some we have some new blood,

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Speaker 1: which is nice in this game. I already missed Tom Brady. Simon,

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Speaker 1: what do we want to know from Stucky? Do you

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Speaker 1: have any stupid trends? Like I love stupid trends for

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Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. The stupidest one I heard so far

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Speaker 1: was the last seventeen years, the team that wears white's

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Speaker 1: twelve and five against the spread. That's my favorite dumb

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Speaker 1: thing I heard. Because people are going crazy about the

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Speaker 1: Bengals selecting the All Blacks. I would love to hear

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Speaker 1: if you've got any crazy trends that you like to

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Speaker 1: play off of. Wait, have they en the all blacks

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Speaker 1: for the Super Bowl? They announced that Bengals wearing black

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Speaker 1: rams are gone white. Well, it's interesting enough. The Bengals

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Speaker 1: are the home team in the Super Bowl, even though

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Speaker 1: it's in the Ram Stadium. They just the home team.

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Speaker 1: Just wrote just alternate student FC and NFC each year.

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Speaker 1: That means they get to pick their uniforms, so they

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Speaker 1: went with all black. Last year the Bucks went with

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Speaker 1: their whites because they had six so much success on

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Speaker 1: the road, which was interesting. And then they the road

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Speaker 1: team gets to call the coin toss. Doesn't matter, no,

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Speaker 1: but it's interesting. Stupid trends. What interesting thing is the

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Speaker 1: team that scores last. It has just dominated super Bowls

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Speaker 1: like they You never see it. You never see a

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Speaker 1: back door that you know, scored last in the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 1: You might see some props and there's one of the

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Speaker 1: last twelve Super Bowls. There's not a lot of comebacks

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Speaker 1: in the Super Bowl, and Joe Barrow has been like

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Speaker 1: the comeback King and the playoffs and all season long.

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Speaker 1: But since the first Super Bowl in nineteen sixty seven,

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Speaker 1: there's been only four teams that overcame double digit deficits

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Speaker 1: to win. Two of them obviously feature Tom Brady, one

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Speaker 1: over the Falcons and in overtime, and then one over

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Speaker 1: Seattle the Malcolm Butler interception game. And the other two

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Speaker 1: were the Saints over the Colts and Washington over Denver

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Speaker 1: back in nineteen So yeah, there's there's not a lot

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Speaker 1: of comebacks in the Super Bowl. So getting off to

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Speaker 1: a fast start will be important, but there also hasn't

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Speaker 1: been fast starts. And if you I don't know if

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Speaker 1: it's nerves or what, one of my favorite things he's

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Speaker 1: touching on is there'll be more points in the second half.

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Speaker 1: I've done that every guy I've been on the Super Bowl,

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Speaker 1: I always bet the overfield goal props in the first

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Speaker 1: half and then more points second half. Last year is

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Speaker 1: a little bit of flukey. Tom Brady came out, put

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Speaker 1: up about twenty four points in the first half and

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Speaker 1: there was no points the rest of the game. But

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Speaker 1: like Stucky's touching on, usually these both teams started slow

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Speaker 1: and then once they come on the second half, that's

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Speaker 1: when they put up all the points. There hasn't been

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Speaker 1: a score in the first six minutes of the last

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Speaker 1: five Super Bowls. So if you like the over and

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Speaker 1: you think, I don't know if it's nerves or what,

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Speaker 1: you would think that teams have like a really good

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Speaker 1: script in coming out. But we've seen the last five

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Speaker 1: Super Bowls be scorels to the first six minutes. Here's

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Speaker 1: some stupid trends for you. And the team that wins

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Speaker 1: a coin toss has lost seven consecutive Super Bowls for whatever,

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Speaker 1: that's where the safety. Some of you are gonna bet safety.

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Speaker 1: Probably shouldn't because there's not much value in it. But

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Speaker 1: if you're convinced there's going to be a safety here,

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Speaker 1: I mean the Rams pin the Bengals deep and Donald

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Speaker 1: gets through. Hasn't hitten seven straight Super Bowls, but a

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Speaker 1: hit in three straight before that, And that's when safety

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Speaker 1: was all the rage. You know, people hit it and

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Speaker 1: then hit it again. In sports books were getting burned

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Speaker 1: by that. Um There's also been four straight Super Bowls

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Speaker 1: without a defensive or special teams touchdown the end, we

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Speaker 1: can get an m v P two on. M v

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Speaker 1: P is a really interesting market this year because and

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Speaker 1: if you look back, thirty one quarterbacks have won it.

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Speaker 1: Ten defensive players and then I think seven and receivers

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Speaker 1: and seven running backs. But the m v P is

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Speaker 1: it really I think this is one of the most

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Speaker 1: interesting m VP markets because you have stars on the

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Speaker 1: defensive end, right, so there's gonna be a there's gear.

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Speaker 1: I have people talking about Aaron Donald and the offensive line.

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Speaker 1: So if it's a really low scoring game and Donald

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Speaker 1: makes makes a play, who knows he could get it.

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Speaker 1: But you also have you know, you have quarterbacks are

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Speaker 1: always gonna be the favorites, but you also have like

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Speaker 1: two star receivers who could dominate yards and touchdowns. So

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Speaker 1: what would Chase have to do? What would Cop have

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Speaker 1: to do to take the m v P from the quarterback? Right?

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Speaker 1: It might be three touchdowns, it might be two hundred yards.

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Speaker 1: So the the you know, the problem with the m

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Speaker 1: v P if you want to go defensive players, but

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Speaker 1: there's been more defensive players than wide receivers, has been

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Speaker 1: more defensive players than running backs. Is trying to pick

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Speaker 1: which defensive player it is. Von Miller, by the way,

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Speaker 1: has one of one of the super mbps. He's in

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Speaker 1: this game as well. So there's storylines abound, and but

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Speaker 1: a lot of times they're just random guys, right like

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Speaker 1: Dexter Jackson, Malcolm Smith, or you gonna pick six, you

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Speaker 1: geta you get a cup of fubble recoveries, Larry Brown,

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Speaker 1: Larry Brown. But in two thousand fifteen and two thousand eighteen,

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Speaker 1: the kind of the longest super super m VP odds

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Speaker 1: we've seen from a winner Julian Edelman and Von Miller,

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Speaker 1: they were at about twenty five the one odds. These

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Speaker 1: random defensive players that you might maybe sports books are

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Speaker 1: offering a lot more now, like when Malcolm Smith wanted

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Speaker 1: in two thousand thirteen, he was just part of the field.

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Speaker 1: But in eleven of the last fifteen Super Bowls, the

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Speaker 1: pregame odds of the m v P were under five

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Speaker 1: to one. And as I said, ten defensive players thirty

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Speaker 1: one quarterbacks. You could pretty much throw out running backs

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Speaker 1: these days, So I would take some kind of special

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Speaker 1: effort for running back to win in today's NFL. You know, Dear,

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Speaker 1: you think back to Terrell Davis. That's like when the

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Speaker 1: peak of the running backs winning SUPERO m VP was

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Speaker 1: back in the in the nineties. You're most likely options

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Speaker 1: are going to be who won, and then if they

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Speaker 1: wanted Stafford, the Rams one Barrow, banks On or did

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Speaker 1: one of these receivers specifically cup End or Chase just

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Speaker 1: completely dominate the game. What are the trends that you

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Speaker 1: have in front of you right now that you feel

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Speaker 1: like you can reliably bet versus trends that are interesting

285
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Speaker 1: but not necessarily markers. There's not a trend that's gonna

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Speaker 1: push me one way or the other. And if you

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Speaker 1: look like this is the most bet on game of

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Speaker 1: the year, it's gonna be and it's at the end

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Speaker 1: of the year. We have data, what is it, twenty

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Speaker 1: games now of data on these teams. This is as

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Speaker 1: efficient of a ligne as you're gonna see whatever team

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Speaker 1: you like, bet them. It's like, like I said before,

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Speaker 1: public sides tenan eight against the spreads and two thousand

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Speaker 1: four And if you look at super Bowl history, the

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Speaker 1: favorites or thirty five and twenty straight up, but they're

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Speaker 1: twenty seven and two against the spread. God, and how

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Speaker 1: about over unders. There was no total set for Super

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Speaker 1: Bowl one, but since then have gone over, have gone under,

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Speaker 1: and one has been a push. So you can see

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Speaker 1: how efficient this is. And for the most part, almost

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Speaker 1: every time and the line is under six points, the

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Speaker 1: winner covers. Now, it doesn't mean it's gonna have forever refort.

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Speaker 1: We're maybe we're due for a favorite to win by

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Speaker 1: a field goal. And then mainly it's just figuring out

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Speaker 1: where is this line gonna go. If I had a guest,

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Speaker 1: it would probably it's probably gonna close right right around here.

307
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Speaker 1: The trends that mean that most to me are just

308
00:15:20,280 --> 00:15:22,440
Speaker 1: at how efficient the Super Bowl line is, which makes

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Speaker 1: all the sense in the world from there, it's just

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Speaker 1: breaking down the matchup on the field between two quarterbacks

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Speaker 1: who have ever been there before. And Barrow is the

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Speaker 1: quickest number one overall draft pick to make the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 1: He's only twenty five years old. We have seen three

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Speaker 1: future Hall of Fame quarterbacks win the Super Bowl before

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Speaker 1: the twenty fifth birthday. You want to try to guess them.

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Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes yep. And Roethlisberger yep. Twenty three has been

317
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Speaker 1: Mahomes is twenty four. Yep, he was twenty four twenty

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Speaker 1: years ago. Today. Here's here's one more. This is the

319
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Speaker 1: second time in NFL history where we've had only second

320
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Speaker 1: time I was surprised by this where we've had to

321
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Speaker 1: number one overall draft pick quarterbacks face off in the

322
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Speaker 1: Super Bowl. What was the other who were Who were

323
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Speaker 1: the quarterbacks? It's not the Jared Goff, Tom Brady, and

324
00:16:16,120 --> 00:16:19,520
Speaker 1: it's not any Russell Wilson was in. It's Peyton Camp

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Speaker 1: there you go, Wow, Yeah, I watched a little football

326
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Speaker 1: and this is I don't know who out there. Maybe

327
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Speaker 1: you guys have heard from listeners who has a Bengal

328
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Speaker 1: Super Bowl ticket, But Bengal Bengals Rams Super Bowl, and

329
00:16:32,520 --> 00:16:37,119
Speaker 1: preseason that matchup would have paid five to one preseason

330
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Speaker 1: odds to win the Super Bowl. The Rams are twelve

331
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Speaker 1: to one. The Bengals were a hundred and fifty to one.

332
00:16:42,040 --> 00:16:45,880
Speaker 1: The Bengals a hundred and fifty to one odds were

333
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Speaker 1: tied with the nineteen nine Rams, which is interesting. It's right,

334
00:16:54,320 --> 00:16:58,880
Speaker 1: you're already wrong. You're wrong. What Rams were two hundred

335
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Speaker 1: to one? Well, that's this is just a bet MGM

336
00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:06,800
Speaker 1: and the Bengals. The Bengals at some places. So the

337
00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:10,359
Speaker 1: things are these are the two longest shots, uh since

338
00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:13,679
Speaker 1: which is what we have the data to Yeah, they

339
00:17:13,680 --> 00:17:16,679
Speaker 1: were both a hundo up to two one. So the

340
00:17:16,760 --> 00:17:23,840
Speaker 1: question is is uh Joe Burrown Company the next greatest show? Look,

341
00:17:23,920 --> 00:17:28,400
Speaker 1: that is interesting, right, Obviously I'm sensitive to the Rams storyline.

342
00:17:28,440 --> 00:17:31,280
Speaker 1: I know it because you know in my best selling book,

343
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Speaker 1: The Odds, I was in Vegas for that thousand season

344
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Speaker 1: and I was embedded with our good friend Bob Scucci

345
00:17:40,160 --> 00:17:45,440
Speaker 1: at the Stardust Sports Book and I just remember them

346
00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:50,000
Speaker 1: sweating to death the Rams run through the season and

347
00:17:50,040 --> 00:17:53,399
Speaker 1: the fact they had taken two or three bets for

348
00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:56,919
Speaker 1: a thousand bucks on the Rams at two one, and

349
00:17:56,960 --> 00:18:00,199
Speaker 1: that they knew it was the Super Bowl and they

350
00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:02,399
Speaker 1: weren't going to make any money on the Super Bowl

351
00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:05,399
Speaker 1: if the Rams won, because the payout on those futures

352
00:18:05,440 --> 00:18:07,600
Speaker 1: was going to be so big, the liability was huge.

353
00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:10,520
Speaker 1: They couldn't make it back in any way. They couldn't

354
00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:15,840
Speaker 1: favor the Rams or Titans enough on either side to

355
00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:18,200
Speaker 1: get them the money they needed to make up the liability,

356
00:18:18,520 --> 00:18:22,000
Speaker 1: and they couldn't actually be reckless with the line because

357
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Speaker 1: they were wrong. Then their liability doubled. And I remember

358
00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:28,320
Speaker 1: all the books after that sort of very specifically changed

359
00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:33,920
Speaker 1: the changed the limits they would take on those futures bets,

360
00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:36,760
Speaker 1: because all of a sudden it became like, wait a second,

361
00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:39,399
Speaker 1: can this happen again? So instead of getting a thousand

362
00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:41,760
Speaker 1: dollars down, you're getting a hundred dollars down on two

363
00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:45,159
Speaker 1: order to one. But even so, you know, Simon, we

364
00:18:45,280 --> 00:18:47,840
Speaker 1: talked about the Bengals that tend to want to win

365
00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:50,119
Speaker 1: the a f C. North. None of us thought about

366
00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:53,000
Speaker 1: putting money down on them to win the Super Bowl,

367
00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:54,919
Speaker 1: and they were like at fifty two one at that point,

368
00:18:55,280 --> 00:18:57,439
Speaker 1: why didn't we think about that? What didn't we like

369
00:18:57,520 --> 00:19:00,919
Speaker 1: about them? As a Super Bowl contender versus other teams?

370
00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:03,080
Speaker 1: Was it? Like you know, we always talked about d

371
00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:05,159
Speaker 1: v o A, Right, their d v O A numbers

372
00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:08,199
Speaker 1: are middling. What weren't we seeing in them? I never

373
00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:10,280
Speaker 1: would have got it right, honestly, just just because I

374
00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:12,720
Speaker 1: would have saw their path, Like say, there wasn't the

375
00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:14,560
Speaker 1: Chief they had to go to playoff at the Buffalo

376
00:19:14,600 --> 00:19:16,879
Speaker 1: play against the Bills. I would have the Bills in

377
00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:19,439
Speaker 1: that game too, Like I just I never would have

378
00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:21,639
Speaker 1: believed it, just because usually it takes a year or

379
00:19:21,680 --> 00:19:24,800
Speaker 1: two to get there, Like usually make the playoffs, you'll lose,

380
00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:27,480
Speaker 1: you get humbled, and then you make it back. The

381
00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:28,960
Speaker 1: only time we see where it works out is when

382
00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:32,119
Speaker 1: you have a great defense. We never never thought the

383
00:19:32,119 --> 00:19:35,439
Speaker 1: Bengals had a great defense, Like Ben Roethlisberger had a

384
00:19:35,440 --> 00:19:38,720
Speaker 1: great defense. Russell Wilson had a great defense when they

385
00:19:38,760 --> 00:19:42,040
Speaker 1: were young, Tom Brady, we all know about that Patriots defense.

386
00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:44,400
Speaker 1: I was a great defense. So I just never would

387
00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:46,359
Speaker 1: have saw it coming in. Like we joke about no

388
00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:49,679
Speaker 1: other pros that either their path has been ideal. Right,

389
00:19:49,760 --> 00:19:53,239
Speaker 1: they play the Raiders who somehow get in and they

390
00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:55,639
Speaker 1: went by one score. Then they play the Titans, like

391
00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:58,000
Speaker 1: that's the one seed and that you would want to play.

392
00:19:58,359 --> 00:20:00,000
Speaker 1: They win by one score. They get a bunch of

393
00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:02,760
Speaker 1: turner I mean they've been benefiting from turnervers to you know.

394
00:20:02,760 --> 00:20:05,440
Speaker 1: And then they come back against the Chiefs and super

395
00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:07,800
Speaker 1: impressive win. It's not the worst path in the world.

396
00:20:08,040 --> 00:20:09,800
Speaker 1: You know. They remind me kind of the two twelve

397
00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:12,560
Speaker 1: Ravens who got in and won three road games with

398
00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:16,560
Speaker 1: with Flacco went crazy. You just get in. It's a

399
00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:19,040
Speaker 1: football game. I will say that that this is Cincinnati

400
00:20:19,119 --> 00:20:22,080
Speaker 1: is the third lowest regular season dv o A of

401
00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:26,440
Speaker 1: any Super Bowl team since two thousand three. The two

402
00:20:26,480 --> 00:20:29,040
Speaker 1: with lower d v O rights with the OH three

403
00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:34,560
Speaker 1: Panthers Jake the Loan and the OH eight Cardinals both

404
00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:38,399
Speaker 1: lost in the Super Bowl. Simon were all right, stucky,

405
00:20:38,720 --> 00:20:44,000
Speaker 1: rapid fire in the final few minutes. National anthem trends.

406
00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:47,000
Speaker 1: This will be the bet that everyone talks about before

407
00:20:47,040 --> 00:20:50,600
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. Forget about sides, national anthem trends go.

408
00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:53,800
Speaker 1: I personally will say I've never bet the national anthem

409
00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:56,440
Speaker 1: m life and will never bet it. And the reason

410
00:20:56,480 --> 00:20:59,080
Speaker 1: it's simple. I don't. I don't shame anyone that does.

411
00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:02,719
Speaker 1: I refused to lose a bet before the game starts.

412
00:21:02,760 --> 00:21:04,560
Speaker 1: That's it. So I don't want to be oh and

413
00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:08,040
Speaker 1: one before the game starts. Uh, and that's all that's

414
00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:09,960
Speaker 1: you know. I think it's just like a It would

415
00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:11,520
Speaker 1: just give me bad vibes. I'm oh and one. We

416
00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:13,640
Speaker 1: haven't even started this game yet, but I know everyone's

417
00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:18,120
Speaker 1: gonna bet it. Uh. Since some of the shortest anthems

418
00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:23,040
Speaker 1: that we've seen Billy Joel, Kelly Clarkson, they were between

419
00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:26,480
Speaker 1: ninety and seconds, and then you had Alicia Keys in

420
00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:30,159
Speaker 1: two thousand and thirteen who was two minutes and thirty

421
00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:34,840
Speaker 1: six seconds, a minute longer than the shortest this year.

422
00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:38,800
Speaker 1: This year's performer is country singer Mickey Gayton, and she's

423
00:21:39,119 --> 00:21:43,440
Speaker 1: a country music artist. I know obviously nothing about her,

424
00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:46,760
Speaker 1: but she's singing and oddsmakers, I think that she's gonna

425
00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:48,720
Speaker 1: have one of the shortest anthems ever. It's gonna be

426
00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:51,320
Speaker 1: around nine swonds. So I remember one one year there

427
00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:54,440
Speaker 1: was someone forgot to forgot a line in there, skipped

428
00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:58,160
Speaker 1: over a line and then think the it stayed under.

429
00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:00,159
Speaker 1: I still have a friend who talks about that that

430
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431
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Speaker 1: line of the national anthem, and he says he deserves

432
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Speaker 1: his money back. But if you're itching for the game,

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Speaker 1: this isn't. This isn't, Alicia Keys, you'll save a minute

434
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Speaker 1: here before kickoff the last one news. By the way,

435
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Speaker 1: do you know Mickey Gate news? Now? I don't know

436
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Speaker 1: The NFL season all comes down to this Super Bowl

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Speaker 1: I'm leaning towards the Bengals in this one, plus a

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Speaker 1: Any value we talked about will there be a score

476
00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:38,440
Speaker 1: in the first six minutes, We talked about betting the

477
00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:41,679
Speaker 1: under in the first half, nerves, et cetera. Any value

478
00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:45,280
Speaker 1: on betting the first Super Bowl score? Yeah, so everyone's

479
00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:47,919
Speaker 1: gonna want to talk about who's gonna score the first touchdown. Um,

480
00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:49,320
Speaker 1: we're gonna have a lot of content out there. We're

481
00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:51,639
Speaker 1: gonna have I think we're we're either gonna do a

482
00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 1: super We're gonna do a draft like a snake draft,

483
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:55,720
Speaker 1: where we're just gonna all give our thoughts on who

484
00:24:55,720 --> 00:25:00,000
Speaker 1: has the most value. But in the last twelve Super

485
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:02,440
Speaker 1: re Bolts, the first score has been a field goal

486
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:06,280
Speaker 1: six times, a touchdown four times, and one of those

487
00:25:06,280 --> 00:25:10,879
Speaker 1: those safeties safeties twice, So two times those safeties were

488
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:12,919
Speaker 1: the first score of the game. Three of these, so

489
00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:15,640
Speaker 1: there's only been four touchdowns out of the last twelve

490
00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:18,800
Speaker 1: Super Bowls is the first score. Three of those touchdowns

491
00:25:18,800 --> 00:25:20,959
Speaker 1: were through the air, and the last twelve Super Bowls,

492
00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:24,080
Speaker 1: the underdog has scored first seven times, the favorite five.

493
00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:28,080
Speaker 1: So maybe there's some potential in taking the Bengals or

494
00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:32,399
Speaker 1: someone on since another interesting like on field match up

495
00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:35,720
Speaker 1: which will impact a lot of this stuff. Sean Karner

496
00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:38,359
Speaker 1: are very is gonna do some content on this because

497
00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:41,320
Speaker 1: you have both tight ends have like the same injury,

498
00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:43,679
Speaker 1: and we don't know if they're gonna play, and they

499
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:48,520
Speaker 1: might be game time decisions. So how are oddsmaker is

500
00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:52,000
Speaker 1: gonna price like Uzoma to score and his props and

501
00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 1: whether or not he's gonna play, and who else does

502
00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:56,119
Speaker 1: that impact? And then you know if they're tight end.

503
00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:58,080
Speaker 1: If those tight ends are on out there and you

504
00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:02,040
Speaker 1: got like Drew sample instead, it would probably increase the

505
00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:04,679
Speaker 1: odds that someone else on the Bengals is going to

506
00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:07,800
Speaker 1: catch a touchdown if that is indeed the first score.

507
00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:11,680
Speaker 1: So a lot of interesting storylines with first score. Don't

508
00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:14,280
Speaker 1: go crazy on those bets, They're more for fun and

509
00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:16,399
Speaker 1: uh throw a dart and see if you got the

510
00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:19,080
Speaker 1: right guy who gets in the end zone. First, Little

511
00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:24,119
Speaker 1: Known rams backup tight end Mickey Gayton will be the

512
00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:27,600
Speaker 1: first to score a thousand to one. Yeah, before we

513
00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 1: get out of here, people have been asking all week

514
00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:32,199
Speaker 1: what are you doing here? First weekend? No football, And

515
00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:36,320
Speaker 1: I'll say what I'm doing that's that's a great question, honestly, Simon,

516
00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:39,880
Speaker 1: I haven't even thought about it. Wow. Yeah, I'm going

517
00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:42,639
Speaker 1: to see Jackass forever tonight. Then I'm hopping on an

518
00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:45,440
Speaker 1: airplane down to somewhere warm, and then I'll come back

519
00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:48,159
Speaker 1: up Sunday. It's gonna be a good weekend. Stucky is

520
00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 1: going to be hosting the Big Bets on Campus Live

521
00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:53,960
Speaker 1: college basketball preview show with the three Men We've Guys

522
00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:56,440
Speaker 1: on Saturday morning at ten thirty Eastern on at Action

523
00:26:56,480 --> 00:26:59,800
Speaker 1: Network HQ. Then he's gonna hunker down and bet his

524
00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:03,440
Speaker 1: face off on college basketball on every team that you've

525
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:06,040
Speaker 1: never heard of. Yeah. The last night I went, it

526
00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:09,480
Speaker 1: was my first night not posting the NFL podcast. We

527
00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:12,360
Speaker 1: will do ours next Wednesday night, and I don't and

528
00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:14,760
Speaker 1: forever since August. So I promised my wife i'd go

529
00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:17,760
Speaker 1: see a late night movie. We saw the New Spider Man.

530
00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:21,560
Speaker 1: She's seen every morravel movie. I've seen like zero, um

531
00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:24,119
Speaker 1: and it was sick. So I saw the Original Spider

532
00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:26,760
Speaker 1: Man though no, I've seen none of them, so I

533
00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:30,080
Speaker 1: like studied who I Eat It the Now? But it

534
00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:32,440
Speaker 1: was it was a pretty dope movie. And yeah, I've

535
00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:35,480
Speaker 1: seen like no action movies and she's seen every single one.

536
00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:40,000
Speaker 1: This is the difference between dudes that are married but

537
00:27:40,119 --> 00:27:43,639
Speaker 1: have no kids, dudes that are unmarried and have no kids,

538
00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:47,959
Speaker 1: and dudes that are married and have kids and the

539
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:50,600
Speaker 1: only thing they think about on the weekend is can

540
00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:55,320
Speaker 1: I fix something? And I stay in bed, like what

541
00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:58,639
Speaker 1: can I do that requires as little work and effort

542
00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:01,119
Speaker 1: as possible? Such a lot. I got a question field

543
00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:04,440
Speaker 1: true or fall stucky? Did you go to an arcade

544
00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:07,920
Speaker 1: with your wife last night? I did? Yeah, she smoked

545
00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:10,640
Speaker 1: me in every game. There's like an arcade in the theater.

546
00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:12,280
Speaker 1: It's called lex Live. It's right next to rupt that

547
00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:16,199
Speaker 1: downtown Lexington. It's really cool place. Yeah, she smoked me.

548
00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:18,240
Speaker 1: I'm running just so bad on all my bets. I

549
00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:20,840
Speaker 1: can't even beat my wife in arcade games. So something

550
00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:23,240
Speaker 1: in the betting world when when it rains it poor

551
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:25,159
Speaker 1: sometimes and you just got a little bit. But she

552
00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:27,400
Speaker 1: gat me in ski ball, she got like a ten

553
00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:31,399
Speaker 1: thousand one at the buzzer to beat me once she

554
00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:36,439
Speaker 1: beat me and Connect four basketball, Lara Croft game Mario

555
00:28:36,560 --> 00:28:39,320
Speaker 1: Kart at like the last second, like three times in

556
00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:42,480
Speaker 1: a row. So yeah, she humiliated me in the arcade

557
00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:47,280
Speaker 1: true story. I was asleep by last night, fell asleep

558
00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 1: reading my kindle with extra large font turn off, the light,

559
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:57,360
Speaker 1: went to bed. It's beautiful. Listen. This has been the

560
00:28:57,480 --> 00:29:00,840
Speaker 1: favorites from the Volume podcast. At work, we are in

561
00:29:00,840 --> 00:29:05,800
Speaker 1: the midst of massive Super Bowl week coverage. You can

562
00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:09,880
Speaker 1: catch us again on Tuesday with seean Coroner and Chris

563
00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:13,760
Speaker 1: Raybon talking the list of Super Bowl um player props.

564
00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:16,040
Speaker 1: You can catch us again on Thursday where Simon and

565
00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:17,920
Speaker 1: I will go through our sharp calls, will go through

566
00:29:17,960 --> 00:29:20,360
Speaker 1: our Simon says, we'll go through our big balls better

567
00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:22,680
Speaker 1: the week, we'll go through our foxel We'll break down

568
00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:24,880
Speaker 1: the game from every angle, give you our final take

569
00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:27,840
Speaker 1: on what we're thinking. You can also get next Thursday

570
00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:31,720
Speaker 1: morning Action Network podcast Chris Raybon and Stucky the Best

571
00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:34,400
Speaker 1: in the Business. Also listen to big bets on campus.

572
00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:37,640
Speaker 1: Get your college basketball fix. Listen to Buckets, get your

573
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:40,080
Speaker 1: NBA fix. Lots of stuff to bet on, folks, just

574
00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:44,360
Speaker 1: because the NFL season is drawing to a close. For

575
00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:48,520
Speaker 1: our friends, Stucky Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation for professional

576
00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:53,080
Speaker 1: better BFF compadre companion Simon Hunter, for producer Matt Mitchell,

577
00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:57,440
Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman. Download us from Spotify, from Apple Podcast,

578
00:29:57,520 --> 00:30:00,920
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcast. Rate review, rate us a

579
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:02,760
Speaker 1: five star. You can say whatever you want. It is

580
00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:06,720
Speaker 1: review season, as everybody knows. I'm just finished Simon Hunters yesterday.

581
00:30:06,920 --> 00:30:10,160
Speaker 1: I'm gonna do Matt Mitchell's today, and your reviews coming up.

582
00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:13,400
Speaker 1: Give us our review, just give us five stars until

583
00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:16,280
Speaker 1: next week. I love you,