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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, this looks great.

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Speaker 3: Breakingpoints dot com. It's free, tells you what's the show?

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Speaker 4: you an even longer version of the newsletter. But I

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Speaker 4: would I would still say it's concise and it gets

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Speaker 4: loving it, so Breakingpoints dot Com thanks everybody who signed up.

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Speaker 3: The biggest news of course, will keep this for the

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Speaker 3: end of the show, which is an old kind of

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Speaker 3: radio trick to keep people listening. That'll be Emily's review

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Speaker 3: of her first Fish show. That's what everybody wants to hear.

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Speaker 3: Any any top line thoughts, let's talk. We'll can talk

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Speaker 3: about at the end of the program.

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Speaker 4: Vibes word chill es three words.

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Speaker 3: Vibes were definitely chill.

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Speaker 4: Seeing Ryan at a Fish show is seeing Ryan at

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Speaker 4: his absolute peak, my happy place, no truly, truly. And

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Speaker 4: Ryan brought his kids, which was super fun too.

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Speaker 3: The kids were they were not so keen on it.

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Speaker 4: But they got you know, slushies or whatever else.

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Speaker 3: It was an education, it was, It was.

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Speaker 4: But lots to get to on the show today. Ryan

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Speaker 4: breaking news on the Iran front. Also Trump striking a

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Speaker 4: brand new deal with Saudi Arabia on It's about nuclear

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Speaker 4: proliferation in the Middle East, so obviously relevant to ongoing

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Speaker 4: negotiations in Iran and strikes continuing as well, so Mussha

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Speaker 4: breakdown on that front. Just in the last few.

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Speaker 3: Hours, Hexith was on Capitol Hill, Trump was in the

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Speaker 3: Oval Office. So we've got a lot of sound work

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Speaker 3: our way through.

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Speaker 4: Yes, thikes Ith begging for money on Capitol Hill, and

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Speaker 4: I promise you he's going to get it. Well, he will,

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Speaker 4: He's going to get it. Might be a little bit of.

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Speaker 3: A fight, then we'll pay up.

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Speaker 4: Yeah. Also, huge, huge developments in Lebanon that we are

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Speaker 4: going to go through. Ryan Dropsite's been doing a lot

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Speaker 4: of work on this.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, nobody's ever tried a civil war in Lebanon, So

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Speaker 3: Trump's like, let's let's do that. Meanwhile, meanwhile, Yemen is

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Speaker 3: threatening to close down and has in fact for Saudi

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Speaker 3: ships shut down bob elmandeb Straight, which has been running

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Speaker 3: a couple of million barrels per day of oil. So

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Speaker 3: if you liked four dollar gallon gas, you're going to

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Speaker 3: love what's coming next.

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Speaker 4: Just you wait, it's only only getting better. Midterm elections.

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Speaker 4: We have some results to get to in Arizona. But

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Speaker 4: also new polling showing exactly how bad the situation is

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Speaker 4: for Republicans. New polling putting the House in the Senate.

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Speaker 4: We won't this is another radio trick ry and we

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Speaker 4: won't tell you who the polling is from, but trust

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Speaker 4: us significant that the polling is showing Democrats now face

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Speaker 4: toss ups, face a toss up in the Senate and

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Speaker 4: leading for control of the House. So we'll go through

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Speaker 4: those numbers with everyone new tariffs on Canada. This is

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Speaker 4: a pretty significant economic development. Lots of foreign policy and

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Speaker 4: politics in the show, but a pretty significant economic development

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Speaker 4: to go through. John Stewart and his thoughts on the DSA.

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Speaker 3: That'll be fun.

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Speaker 4: You don't want to hear this. John Stuart's thoughts of

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Speaker 4: the DSA. Also Republicans saying the quote Bolshevik takeover of

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Speaker 4: the Democratic Party is in full swing. We might debate

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Speaker 4: who the Bolsheviks are in this scenario. And Ryan, who's

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Speaker 4: our guest.

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Speaker 3: We had Kyle Blomquest who's running in the Upper Peninsula

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Speaker 3: of Michigan against Jack Bergman and Republican if he wins

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Speaker 3: the Democratic primary, and we'll talk to him also about

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Speaker 3: the Abdulla l side and Haley Stevens race. And also

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Speaker 3: he's another candidate who's really being propelled by his opposition

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Speaker 3: to data centers.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, massive, you know one thing that is the new

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Speaker 4: data centers just it's not in the show, but it

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Speaker 4: occurs to me. There's the data centers, and there's the

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Speaker 4: flot cameras, And I feel like flock cameras are starting

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Speaker 4: to be slotted into that same role as the data

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Speaker 4: centers and being this like sneaky, under the surface issue

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Speaker 4: that unites people who are maybe on the left and

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Speaker 4: on the right, are just normal and hate what this

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Speaker 4: stuff stands for, and it's starting to have political ramifications.

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Speaker 4: So a quick thought, not in the show, but much

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Speaker 4: to discuss with.

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Speaker 3: Everyone likes their own flock camera, they just don't like

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Speaker 3: the other. Yes, blot cameras.

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Speaker 4: That's yeah, flot cameras everywhere at the Fish concert. I'm

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Speaker 4: sure personal flot cameras in your pocket. All right, let's

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Speaker 4: get to the show. Let's start now with this Wall

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Speaker 4: Street Journal story is an exclusive to the Journal. They

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Speaker 4: are saying Trump has approved a landmark nuclear deal with

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Speaker 4: Saudi Arabia in big win for the Kingdom. Reading a

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Speaker 4: bit from the piece, they say President Trump has formally

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Speaker 4: approved a landmark Saudi Arabia that will provide the country

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Speaker 4: with a civilian nuclear program and potentially open the door

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Speaker 4: to uranium enrichment in the Kingdom's territory. According to administration officials,

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Speaker 4: this piece popped at six A. M. Ryan quick reaction

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Speaker 4: to this development.

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Speaker 3: Well, see, this is a theocracy that is responsible, and

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Speaker 3: so we're going to provide them with nuclear weapons. They

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Speaker 3: haven't dismembered a Washington Post journalist for at least several

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Speaker 3: years at this point. They haven't launched a reckless war book. Actually,

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Speaker 3: they've brought launched several reckless wars fairly recently, So never

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Speaker 3: mind they haven't. They're led by an impulsive, authoritarian dictator

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Speaker 3: who actually has very few checks on him.

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Speaker 4: Who happened institutionally it happens to be very good friends

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Speaker 4: with the president's son in law.

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Speaker 3: Yes, the friendship between Muhammed bin Salmon and Jared Kushner

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Speaker 3: and Trump was forged with billions of dollars of bribes,

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Speaker 3: and so that may it the kind that is able

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Speaker 3: to be kind of endowed with a nuclear proliferation agreement

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Speaker 3: in which we proliferate nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia, which,

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Speaker 3: by the way, credibly involved in the attack on nine

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Speaker 3: to eleven.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, now they say the new Deal, Fine, it gets

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Speaker 4: better because this is going to last for thirty years.

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Speaker 4: According to the Wall Street Journal, the new Deal, which

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Speaker 4: would last thirty years, is estimated to be worth tens

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Speaker 4: of billions of dollars. It is designed to give American

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Speaker 4: companies a central role in developing Saudi Arabia's nuclear infrastructure

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Speaker 4: while shutting out other foreign competitors. The journal says a

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Speaker 4: key provision of the new accord would have American companies

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Speaker 4: built a uranium enrichment facility in Saudi Arabia if a

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Speaker 4: joint US Saudi study determines such a step would be warranted.

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Speaker 4: So very trumpion Kushionarian, if that's a word, to bring

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Speaker 4: in the American companies and make the deal worth tens

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Speaker 4: of billions of dollars for apparently at least thirty years

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Speaker 4: in Saudi Arabia.

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Speaker 3: I just so happy for everybody involved. Meanwhile, Trump is

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Speaker 3: moving forward with his attacks on Iran. Overnight, there were

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Speaker 3: continue to continue to American air strikes across Iran, and

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Speaker 3: he's claiming that he's going to attack pick Axe Mountain.

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Speaker 3: If you're confused about where this Pickaxe Mountain is coming from,

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Speaker 3: all of a sudden, it's part of the Natanz nuclear complex.

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Speaker 3: Why is he calling it pick Axe? Well, because you're

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Speaker 3: not an idiot and you heard it. You were like

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Speaker 3: wait a minute, in the Tans, didn't we obliterate that

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Speaker 3: in the Twelve Day War last year? Yeah, we were

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Speaker 3: told we obliterated it. So if we're going to attack

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Speaker 3: it again, we have to rename it so that people

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Speaker 3: don't realize we're attacking the same thing. So there's another

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Speaker 3: hole in the mountain like a mile away or half

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Speaker 3: a mile away from what we previously bombed that.

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Speaker 4: We call it Pickaxe Mountain.

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Speaker 3: Pick Axe Mountain. That's what this Trump says he's going

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Speaker 3: to get now in all a one, do you believe

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Speaker 3: that Iran has moved nuclear centrifuges into Ax Mountain?

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Speaker 4: And when you say we're not done yet, what is

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Speaker 4: left to finish?

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Speaker 5: Well, I think that they they may have. We don't

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Speaker 5: have it on record. All we do is read the

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Speaker 5: fake news. You know, we see the news is so

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Speaker 5: wrong so many times. So you know, maybe this one

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Speaker 5: they have right, but it's okay. It doesn't mean anything

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Speaker 5: unless they have the material. You're talking about, the centrifuges.

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Speaker 5: It doesn't mean anything unless they have the material. They

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Speaker 5: don't have. We follow the material. That's where the action is,

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Speaker 5: and we'll be hitting that area very probably pretty soon,

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Speaker 5: and there's not a thing they can do about it.

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Speaker 5: You know, normally I wouldn't say that. If I thought

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Speaker 5: they could do something about it, I would never say that.

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Speaker 5: But we'll be hitting that area pretty soon, and very heavily.

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Speaker 3: So there's Trump saying that, Okay, maybe they did move

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Speaker 3: the centrifuges, but what good is the centrifuge if you

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Speaker 3: don't have highly enriched uranium to spin in it. He

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Speaker 3: makes a very good point. So the Israeli intelligence, which

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Speaker 3: is pointing towards Pickaxe Mountain, comes out. They're like, oh, update,

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Speaker 3: by the way, we forgot to tell you that also

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Speaker 3: we can put up a two here. Is really intelligence

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Speaker 3: concludes that, yes, they also moved there and reached stockpile

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Speaker 3: there too. That's according to Israeli intelligence. I think this

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Speaker 3: sounds totally on the up and up, and you could

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Speaker 3: take this to the bank, right, Yeah.

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Speaker 4: I mean, it seemed like that is really intelligence. It's

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Speaker 4: always interesting to go back and anatomize how something goes

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Speaker 4: through the media, like the life story piece of intelligence,

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Speaker 4: as it makes its way through the media, and it

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Speaker 4: does seem like that really was the genesis of Now

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Speaker 4: everybody talking about Pickax Mountain, including of course, the President

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Speaker 4: of the United States also worth bringing back in the

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Speaker 4: Saudi nuclear deal we were just talking about further in

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Speaker 4: the Journal article, you have a quote here from the

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Speaker 4: executive director of the Non Proliferation Policy Education Center who says,

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Speaker 4: whither goes Saudi Arabia, so goes the UAE Turkey in Egypt.

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Speaker 4: The idea that this will have a happy ending is delusional.

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Speaker 4: And so just to bring it all together with nuclear proliferation,

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Speaker 4: this is the Trump administration now going after Pickax Mountain

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Speaker 4: while cutting deals with the Saudis on nuclear proliferation.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and when it comes to things that Trump has

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Speaker 3: consistently believed in for many decades, tariffs are one of them,

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Speaker 3: thinking that Japan is ripping us off as another. They

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Speaker 3: just flipped that to China, like the nineties. Being against

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Speaker 3: nuclear proliferation is one of them. Like if you go

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Speaker 3: back to there's interviews from the eighties. He's been concerned

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Speaker 3: about nuclear power, yes, nucar weapons and their proliferation for decades.

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Speaker 3: Clearly he has a higher value in life, and that

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Speaker 3: is corruption, and so he's willing like he doesn't think

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Speaker 3: about it. There are very few things he actually believes

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Speaker 3: in and nuclear proliferation being one of them. But he

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Speaker 3: doesn't believe in it so much that he's not going

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Speaker 3: to just discard it for a couple billion dollars.

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Speaker 4: He's not even conditioning this on normalized relationships between or

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Speaker 4: normalized relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. According to the Journal, that.

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Speaker 3: Used to be one of the hold ups there. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: it was. He's recognizing that Israel's just not going to

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Speaker 3: do it.

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Speaker 4: He also said on Truth Social this is our next element.

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Speaker 4: We can pop up on the screen. Enough is enough,

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Speaker 4: No more talks because they just lie. It's time to

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Speaker 4: all caps finish the job. So what that is going

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Speaker 4: to look like still a bit unclear. If we move

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Speaker 4: on to A three B. What you're seeing here, according

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Speaker 4: to drop site analysis, is basically US striking Auran for

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Speaker 4: the eleventh straight night overnight, as air defenses were activated

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Speaker 4: over at Tehran. Explosions were reported across Iran overnight and

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Speaker 4: eleventh consecutive night of US attacks, with air defenses activating

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Speaker 4: over Tehran for the first time in the current round

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Speaker 4: of escalation. That's according to Al Jazeera. In Tehran, the

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Speaker 4: strikes hit a military base inta breeze. That's in the

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Speaker 4: northwest of Iran for a second straight day, and then

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Speaker 4: explosions were reported in three different cities and one overlooking

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Speaker 4: the Strait of Hormuz. USCOM said it targeted Iran's maritime capabilities,

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Speaker 4: strone facilities and aircraft hangars, describing the campaign as an

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Speaker 4: effort to degrade Tran's ability to threaten shipping through the

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Speaker 4: Strait of Hormuz. And then the IRGC vowed to keep

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Speaker 4: operating to punish quote the aggressor and Iran's rhetoric escalating

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Speaker 4: significantly Ryan in recent days as well, if that's even

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Speaker 4: possible for escalation at this point, but clearly there's always.

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Speaker 3: Room, yes, And so if you remember, was it last

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Speaker 3: week we discussed the US strike on a dormitory housing

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Speaker 3: conscripts in Iran. Iran vowed to retaliate for that because,

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Speaker 3: like we were saying at the time, okay, you're in

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Speaker 3: the military, it's plausibly that's a military target, but there's

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Speaker 3: something unspoken that just like killing people in their sleep

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Speaker 3: is just it's not gentlemanly, maybe we could say. And

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Speaker 3: so Iran vowed a time, okay, we're going to respect

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Speaker 3: and so they had been run up until now had

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Speaker 3: mostly been targeting military infrastructure, the early warning satellite systems,

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Speaker 3: all of our multi billion dollar pieces of what are

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Speaker 3: now smoldering junk that we had lying around the Gulf.

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Speaker 3: They now appear to have moved to targeting actual service

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Speaker 3: members and so we can actually put up roll a

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Speaker 3: three C. This is This is a footage that was

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Speaker 3: posted from a base in Jordan by a service member.

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Speaker 3: You can hear the warnings, you know, coming from the

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Speaker 3: sirens and everybody just kind of scrambling to get to

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Speaker 3: the safest place that they can before the ballistic missiles hit,

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Speaker 3: which you have. You now have you know, much less

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Speaker 3: time to do this because they have hit so many

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Speaker 3: of the early warning radar sites and so the missiles

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Speaker 3: are getting much closer. In some cases you're seeing video

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Speaker 3: of strikes impacting without even hearing the sirens. Or in

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Speaker 3: Kuwait you might hear the siren for you know, eight

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Speaker 3: seconds and then building it and a building has hit nearby,

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Speaker 3: or Bahrain you might You're unlikely to get even eight seconds.

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Speaker 3: We can add in post this is something I put

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Speaker 3: up on Twitter last night. Of sorts sent to me

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Speaker 3: two photos of the results of the attack on tower

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Speaker 3: twenty two, which is a base in Jordan, and there

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Speaker 3: you can see that the dorms were just completely annihilated.

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Speaker 3: I was told that there were no fatalities, but a

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Speaker 3: significant number of traumatic brain injuries as a result of

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Speaker 3: this attack. And they've they've evacuated this quite you know, influential,

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Speaker 3: you know, and at one time powerful base as a

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Speaker 3: result of them being unable to fend off drone and

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Speaker 3: ballistic missile attacks. It's also told that that they are

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Speaker 3: shifting from the shot head to thirty six is down

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Speaker 3: only to thirty one. Basically the point being that they're

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Speaker 3: sending smaller drones which are harder as you can imagine,

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Speaker 3: to shoot out of the sky, so that the bigger

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Speaker 3: ones obviously pack a bigger punch and have a longer range,

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Speaker 3: but the smaller ones are you know, much more able

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Speaker 3: to kind of weave their way through American air defenses.

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Speaker 3: President Trump has found the guy responsible for all of this.

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Speaker 3: It's the Jordanian air defense operators. He did he figured

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Speaker 3: this out. So demerits to that guy. So let's go

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Speaker 3: to A four.

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Speaker 5: They did slip something through in Jordan, and if we

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Speaker 5: had other operators, you know, would have not happened, unfortunately,

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Speaker 5: But we because we have the best equipment in the world.

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Speaker 5: You know, we've stopped almost everything. But when you let

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Speaker 5: other people do your job. With the United States, who

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Speaker 5: let other people do the job, and sometimes it doesn't

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Speaker 5: work out.

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Speaker 3: So well, oh yeah, Trump never fails. He can only

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Speaker 3: be failed.

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Speaker 4: He said they slipped something through in Jordan. Three American

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Speaker 4: soldiers died in Georgian hundred wounded, Isabella Gonzalez Tyler Fienn

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Speaker 4: and on how romper sought in addition to another death

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Speaker 4: that occurred. I think it was in rock over the weekend.

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Speaker 4: That's what Slipping something through in Jordan is right.

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Speaker 3: And that's right. And so that's three people who would

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Speaker 3: be alive if Trump had just stuck with the MoU Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Plus the fourth in Iraq who was apparently nearby when

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Speaker 3: they were trying to detonate an unexploded drone and was

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Speaker 3: killed in the explosion. Plus then we're talking about ast

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Speaker 3: at least one hundred casualties. Some of them probably be

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Speaker 3: suffering with it from the results of it for the

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Speaker 3: rest of the rest of their lives. There's a lot

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Speaker 3: of complaints that the medical attention they're getting is extremely

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Speaker 3: substandard even when they get flown to Germany, which at

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Speaker 3: Tammy Baldwin was bringing this up in Senate yesterday. It's

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Speaker 3: like we've been doing this for twenty five thirty years, Like,

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Speaker 3: how do you not have better medical care for people

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Speaker 3: who were paying the price here for this absolute folly. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 3: Besileel Smotridge thinks this is in fact actually the best

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Speaker 3: of all worlds. Let's put up a five rather startling

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Speaker 3: remark from Smotrich, reported by Amed Siegel, who's very close

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Speaker 3: to Benjamin net Yahoo Finance Minister Smotridge after the lengthy

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Speaker 3: security discussion last night. He says, quote, the State of

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Speaker 3: Israel has no interest in joining the contained confrontation between

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Speaker 3: Iran and the United States. The current situation is the

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Speaker 3: best one for US. Rather crass, I think, after four

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Speaker 3: American service members are killed and Iran continues to oblit

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Speaker 3: rate our all of the military infrastructure that we've built

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Speaker 3: up in the in the Gulf to protect Israel, by

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Speaker 3: the way, like we built we built it to protect Israel.

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Speaker 3: But as we said at the top of the program,

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Speaker 3: the American warplanes continue to strike a run. So that's

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Speaker 3: what that's what Smotrich means like he's he's completely content

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Speaker 3: with that, and Israel can use its time to continue

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Speaker 3: to destroy villages in Lebanon and continue to launch daily

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Speaker 3: attacks in Gaza despite having agreed to a ceasefire, and

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Speaker 3: continue to try to push their imaginary yellow line deeper

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Speaker 3: and deeper into Gaza. And luckily for Smotrich, according to

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Speaker 3: Fox News or this Fox News guest, you know, he

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Speaker 3: might get the best of all worlds for another twenty

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Speaker 3: years or so. Let's roll a six. How much longer

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Speaker 3: do you expect this to go on? And do you

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Speaker 3: think munition should be a limitation at this point? What

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Speaker 3: do you hear?

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Speaker 5: No, I don't think.

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Speaker 6: You know, the Pentagon has done a great job of

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Speaker 6: restocking the munitions. I don't think that's an issue at all,

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Speaker 6: But I can I do expect that we're going to

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Speaker 6: be there a long time. You know, Operation Northern Southern

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Speaker 6: Watch went on for almost twenty years. I think so,

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Speaker 6: I think this is going to be something similar. We're

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Speaker 6: going to have to stay there. Those guys aren't going

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Speaker 6: to change their behavior. We have to adapt, and I think,

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Speaker 6: you know, we're going to have to get the gold

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Speaker 6: States and those who rely on the oil coming from

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Speaker 6: the Gold States to help pay for this.

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Speaker 3: Curious for a take on this, because I thought that

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Speaker 3: was an extra revealing remark. He's talking about Operation Northern

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Speaker 3: Watch there, which is a reference to how in the

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Speaker 3: nineteen nineties the US had a no fly zone over

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Speaker 3: Iraq and would just bomb it like once or twice

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Speaker 3: a week and sanctioned it to death. In the seventies

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Speaker 3: and eighties, Iraq was the wealthiest country in the Middle East.

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Speaker 3: It was very it was very powerful, and then in

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Speaker 3: nineteen ninety one there was what seemed to be a

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Speaker 3: deliberate miscommunication between the US and Iraq and which we

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Speaker 3: greenlit them going into Kuwait. We then launched the First

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Speaker 3: Gulf War, and after that we Israel considered Iraq to be,

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Speaker 3: you know, its greatest kind of jew strategic threat in

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Speaker 3: the region. Tsaddami same it was very sympathetic to the

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Speaker 3: Palestinian cause, and so we spend the nineties just bombing

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Speaker 3: the hell out of Iraq and sanctioning them, and then

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Speaker 3: once it was sufficiently weakened in two thousand and three,

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Speaker 3: we went in and we topple it. And so what

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Speaker 3: he's suggesting there is that that should be the roadmap

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Speaker 3: for Iran that we just spend ten years just like

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Speaker 3: bombing it once or twice a week, and then maybe

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Speaker 3: twenty thirty five we can send some troops in there

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Speaker 3: and just push over what's left of it.

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Speaker 4: Well, and as always, it's worth popping the general's name

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Speaker 4: anytime you see a talking head on Fox News that's

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Speaker 4: very excited Fox News, CNN, MSNBC. Honestly, that seems to

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Speaker 4: be analyzing a war as a never ending one that

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Speaker 4: might involve years of conflict.

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Speaker 3: Who does he worked for, let's hear it.

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Speaker 4: Oh, he's a founder of his own AI company that

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Speaker 4: happens to have contracts with the Pentagon, and it's a

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Speaker 4: data center. It's a micro data center company. It's called Semper.

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Speaker 4: Actually just did a whole write up of his company

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Speaker 4: back in twenty twenty one. He's also a senior fellow

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Speaker 4: at the Hudson Institute, which of course gets a significant

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Speaker 4: amount of money from defense contractors. So no surprise to

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Speaker 4: hear Spalding thinking this just might take a long.

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Speaker 3: Time, just pulled himself up by his bootstraps. Yes, well,

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Speaker 3: see hard work rewarded now.

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Speaker 4: Secretary of HEGSA, speaking of money from or four the

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Speaker 4: Department of War Secretary Hegseth was on Capitol Hill yesterday

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Speaker 4: asking for what was it run? Like seventy billion more dollars?

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Speaker 3: He said the sixty seven billion I think he wants, right, Yeah,

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Speaker 3: and he said the war que amount for a organization

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Speaker 3: that doesn't know how to count its money every year.

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Speaker 4: Well, the price tag for the Iran war, according to

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Speaker 4: testimony from Dan Cain and Pete Hegseth yesterday, is now

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Speaker 4: up to thirty seven and a half billion. Actually, how

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Speaker 4: do they know that'stified?

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Speaker 3: They can't. They don't know how to do an audit.

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Speaker 3: How do they even know they're out of money?

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Speaker 4: Thirty seven and a half?

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Speaker 3: Like, we're out of money? Like, how do you know

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Speaker 3: you're out of money?

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Speaker 4: Not thirty seven?

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Speaker 3: Again, there's money somewhere.

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Speaker 4: I check out of the couch. Well, anyway, he was

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Speaker 4: confronted by Senator John Ossoff. Let's take a look here

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Speaker 4: a day seven.

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Speaker 7: You stated on March eighth, day nine of the war,

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Speaker 7: on sixty minutes, you assured the American people of Iranian surrender.

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Speaker 7: Does that remain your prediction?

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Speaker 2: Ultimately, Iran will never have a nuclear weapon to threatn

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Speaker 2: in the United States of America.

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Speaker 4: That has been the objective and it remains so.

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Speaker 7: So just to review, you will not answer whether your

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Speaker 7: statement made on the fourteenth day of the war that

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Speaker 7: Iran's military had been quote destroyed and made combat ineffective

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Speaker 7: was a truthful statement to the American people. As you

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Speaker 7: sit here and ask for tens of billions more.

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Speaker 6: The senator's time has been a historic and effective military

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Speaker 6: campaign against the largest state sponsor of terrorists.

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Speaker 3: And answer the question.

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Speaker 4: I meanwhile, Splet's screen here on Capitol Hill, Mike Johnson,

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Speaker 4: Speaker Mike Johnson, who's looking at potentially becoming minority leader.

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Speaker 4: Mike Johnson is a little bit more concerned about the

435
00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:24,080
Speaker 4: timeline of the war. Let's take a leston.

436
00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:27,560
Speaker 8: The administration is working very hard, the Commander Chief and

437
00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:30,520
Speaker 8: the whole Department of War working very hard to bring

438
00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:33,000
Speaker 8: this to a resolution. There's a lot of discussions about

439
00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:37,200
Speaker 8: how that will be done. We're all closely watching those developments.

440
00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:39,960
Speaker 8: Of course, I don't think an aumth is in order

441
00:23:40,080 --> 00:23:41,720
Speaker 8: right now. I think we need to bring this to

442
00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:45,639
Speaker 8: a resolution. Look, I think it's important for all of

443
00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:49,159
Speaker 8: our international partners, is my personal view, to have a

444
00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:51,040
Speaker 8: role in this I mean, we've got all of our

445
00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:54,200
Speaker 8: alleg nations through NATO, We've got the Arab countries over there,

446
00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:57,480
Speaker 8: the Gulf states that are in closest proximity to Iran.

447
00:23:57,840 --> 00:24:00,200
Speaker 8: Iran is now fired on all of its neighbors, and

448
00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:03,119
Speaker 8: they're turning everybody in the world into an enemy. And

449
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:05,119
Speaker 8: I think this is an important moment of history for

450
00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:08,560
Speaker 8: all of the world community to decide how they want

451
00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:12,600
Speaker 8: to handle this. It shouldn't just be America's obligation. My

452
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:14,920
Speaker 8: view is that everybody needs to play a role, so

453
00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:16,560
Speaker 8: we'll see how that develops. I think we have to

454
00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:18,920
Speaker 8: allow the space to do that, and I know that

455
00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:21,800
Speaker 8: this administration is working around the clock to resolve that

456
00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:24,199
Speaker 8: in a way so they don't suffer any more true losses.

457
00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:27,560
Speaker 8: This is a great tragedy. It shouldn't happen, but it

458
00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 8: is a very important, very important objective that I believe

459
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:33,920
Speaker 8: we've achieved to ensure that the largest sponsor of state

460
00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:37,200
Speaker 8: of a terrorism does not have a nuclear weapon that

461
00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:39,720
Speaker 8: would be a disaster for everybody, and everybody around the

462
00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:42,240
Speaker 8: world understands that. Now we've got to wrap it up subtle.

463
00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:44,120
Speaker 4: But you probably caught at the end there him saying

464
00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:45,680
Speaker 4: we need to wrap it up. There's no need for

465
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:49,680
Speaker 4: an AUMF specific to this Iran war. Got to resolve it,

466
00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 4: because we just got to wrap it up, Brian. And

467
00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:53,720
Speaker 4: you know what, maybe I agree with that at this

468
00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:56,600
Speaker 4: point if we don't need to have an AOMF, because

469
00:24:57,080 --> 00:24:59,080
Speaker 4: you guys would rather just wrap it up by all means,

470
00:24:59,200 --> 00:24:59,719
Speaker 4: wrap it up.

471
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:03,000
Speaker 3: Also, they've already voted, they passed a War Powers resolution

472
00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:08,760
Speaker 3: ending the war. Amazing Congress did that, great work. Yeah,

473
00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:10,560
Speaker 3: so yeah, wrap it up.

474
00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:16,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, all right, well, Ryan, let's talk now about Lebanon.

475
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:20,200
Speaker 4: Also crucial to this entire conversation about the negotiations in Iraq.

476
00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:24,520
Speaker 4: Trump was saying yesterday that he's it was going back

477
00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:27,400
Speaker 4: and forth and whether or not he's negotiating with Ron,

478
00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:30,359
Speaker 4: he would be willing to center our Secretary of Rubio

479
00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:34,840
Speaker 4: in the same kind of vein fluctuating on whether or

480
00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:36,800
Speaker 4: not they're willing to talk publicly, privately all of that.

481
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:40,240
Speaker 4: So let's move over to Lebanon, because Donald Trump was

482
00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:42,520
Speaker 4: with the President of Lebanon yesterday in the White House.

483
00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:45,159
Speaker 3: Yeah, and so Treta parcy had flagged. And you can

484
00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:47,320
Speaker 3: put this element up on the screen, this wall Street

485
00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:52,600
Speaker 3: Journal article that floats the various ways that the US

486
00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:57,400
Speaker 3: is exploring the idea of basically sparking a civil war

487
00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:01,000
Speaker 3: inside of Lebanon. And I wanted to just read a

488
00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:04,880
Speaker 3: little bit from this Wall Street Journal article because I think,

489
00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:09,639
Speaker 3: just hearing how the mainstream media writes about it, you,

490
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:12,800
Speaker 3: as a normal person, will be able to immediately spot

491
00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:17,160
Speaker 3: all of the problems with this proposal. So the journal

492
00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:21,200
Speaker 3: rights Israel has battered the Lebanes militia Hesbela over two

493
00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:24,040
Speaker 3: years of fighting. Many Lebanes are turning against the militant group,

494
00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:27,760
Speaker 3: and there's growing consensus in Beirut that Hesbela must finally

495
00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:31,119
Speaker 3: be forced to give up its weapons. But American Israeli

496
00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:33,920
Speaker 3: in Lebany's officials are finding there are no easy options

497
00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:37,320
Speaker 3: to disarm a US designated terrorist group that is embedded

498
00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:39,960
Speaker 3: in society and bound to its cause with religious zeal.

499
00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:45,359
Speaker 3: Complicating matters is Israel's invasion of Lebanon and its continuing

500
00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:49,280
Speaker 3: occupation of swaths of the country's south, creating a point

501
00:26:49,320 --> 00:26:52,600
Speaker 3: of tension with Beirut, just when the two countries leaders

502
00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:57,560
Speaker 3: are aligned on disarming Hesbela, and then they go on

503
00:26:57,640 --> 00:26:59,880
Speaker 3: to say that dilemma has opened the way for once

504
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:03,840
Speaker 3: unthinkable ideas pushing ahead. US Israeli and Lebanese officials are

505
00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 3: pushing ahead with a plan to train and vet elite

506
00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:09,159
Speaker 3: units of the Lebanese armed forces. The idea here they

507
00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:13,560
Speaker 3: will train these Lebanese armed forces and then Israel will

508
00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:16,640
Speaker 3: then kind of after training them, turn over the occupation

509
00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:19,840
Speaker 3: of southern Lebanon to them. But I just love this

510
00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:23,399
Speaker 3: delightful line in here. Complicating matters is Israel's invasion of Lebanon.

511
00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:29,520
Speaker 3: Small matter and a mere complexity does make it a

512
00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:33,720
Speaker 3: little extrac a wrinkle, we'll agree with that. The piece

513
00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:36,119
Speaker 3: then goes on to kind of try to disentangle this

514
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:41,800
Speaker 3: complexity which comes primarily from well lots of different elements,

515
00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:45,280
Speaker 3: but the fact that Hesbela is a key element of

516
00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:51,919
Speaker 3: the Lebanese military. There are Hesbela sympathetic and Hesbola linked

517
00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:57,520
Speaker 3: people who make up significant swaths of the Lebanese armed forces.

518
00:27:58,000 --> 00:28:01,560
Speaker 3: And so anytime the Lebanese arm fource verses try to

519
00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:06,479
Speaker 3: move against Hesbela, Hesbela gets tipped off immediately because they

520
00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:12,720
Speaker 3: are in there because they are Lebanese. Complicating matters. Yeah,

521
00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:16,879
Speaker 3: So then they go on to say, well, maybe we

522
00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:23,080
Speaker 3: can get al Shara two. You know, like, they don't

523
00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:24,960
Speaker 3: even say they're gonna get Alshara, who's the you know,

524
00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:27,960
Speaker 3: Syrian president, to go to war against Hezbela. What the

525
00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:31,840
Speaker 3: journal is suggesting here is that they'll get al Shara

526
00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:37,840
Speaker 3: to cut off the supply lines between Iran and hesblah.

527
00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:41,720
Speaker 3: That would be a plausible thing that you could do,

528
00:28:41,840 --> 00:28:47,880
Speaker 3: and is a reason that Israel wanted to overthrow Aside

529
00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:50,960
Speaker 3: and replace him with al Shara. The problem is Israel

530
00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:55,840
Speaker 3: couldn't help itself, and as soon as al Shara took over, Israel,

531
00:28:55,960 --> 00:29:00,960
Speaker 3: through a series of air strikes, obliterated the entire national

532
00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:05,480
Speaker 3: security infrastructure available to al Shara, blew up every truck,

533
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:10,360
Speaker 3: every tank, every plane, everything capable of firing a shell.

534
00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 3: And so now Israel is saying, oh, hey, can you

535
00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:19,800
Speaker 3: go ahead and use your state apparatus to intercept the

536
00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 3: smuggling that is going on between Iran and Hezwa and

537
00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:29,080
Speaker 3: Alshara is like, yeah, about our state apparatus, you may

538
00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:33,400
Speaker 3: recall or may not recall. You destroyed it all, Yeah,

539
00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:39,160
Speaker 3: so sorry, we can't. So then you could build them

540
00:29:39,200 --> 00:29:43,720
Speaker 3: back up, but that would create state capacity on the

541
00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:49,280
Speaker 3: part of Syria. Israel has said that their strategic assessment

542
00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:54,160
Speaker 3: is that state capacity itself is a threat to Israel.

543
00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:58,200
Speaker 3: They don't care if a country is threatening them, if

544
00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:01,920
Speaker 3: they have the capacity to threaten them, they consider that

545
00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:06,240
Speaker 3: a geostrategic vulnerability. So they want to degrade every state

546
00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:09,000
Speaker 3: near them to the point where they don't even have

547
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:13,480
Speaker 3: the capacity to think about challenging Israel. So they want

548
00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:18,760
Speaker 3: Syria to have the state capacity to intercept the smuggling roots.

549
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:21,880
Speaker 3: But they don't want Syria to have any state capacity

550
00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:26,120
Speaker 3: because then that could be used to challenge Israel's occupation

551
00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:30,920
Speaker 3: of the Goal On Heights and increasing occupation further north

552
00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:38,240
Speaker 3: towards Damascus. So the entire idea here is completely convoluted.

553
00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:41,320
Speaker 3: Unless all they want is just a giant civil war

554
00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:44,840
Speaker 3: to go on for decades, then maybe they could get

555
00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:48,080
Speaker 3: that if you send it enough weapons and train enough

556
00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:51,880
Speaker 3: quote unquote Lebanese special forces or elite units.

557
00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 4: It put the Lebanese president in a rather interesting position

558
00:30:54,560 --> 00:30:57,160
Speaker 4: yesterday as he was meeting President Trump at the White House.

559
00:30:57,240 --> 00:30:59,680
Speaker 4: Let's take a listen to a flavor of their conversation

560
00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:00,600
Speaker 4: in front reporters.

561
00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:03,640
Speaker 5: Be too, mister President, it's an honor having you. Thank

562
00:31:03,680 --> 00:31:06,040
Speaker 5: you very much. Other Oh, thank you, thank you. I'll

563
00:31:06,040 --> 00:31:08,600
Speaker 5: be looking forward this visit forty long time.

564
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:11,520
Speaker 3: Thank you. Meeting such a great president like yourself.

565
00:31:11,600 --> 00:31:13,560
Speaker 5: That's a very nice thing. So he knows how to

566
00:31:13,600 --> 00:31:18,760
Speaker 5: get to me. Now we have anything, would you like

567
00:31:18,840 --> 00:31:19,120
Speaker 5: to say?

568
00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:22,720
Speaker 4: Well, the meeting finished, and the Donald Trump posted untrue

569
00:31:22,800 --> 00:31:26,880
Speaker 4: social that after it, he says, I am hereby directing

570
00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 4: my administration to allow all US airline carriers to fly

571
00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:34,480
Speaker 4: directly to Lebanon so that Americans can easily visit this

572
00:31:34,680 --> 00:31:38,120
Speaker 4: beautiful land. Hopefully other countries will do the same. Enjoy

573
00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:41,160
Speaker 4: President Donald J. Trump. Now, Ryan, I'd love to go

574
00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 4: to Lebanon.

575
00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:45,720
Speaker 3: I'm not sure now's the time, a little weekend.

576
00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:48,200
Speaker 4: Especially in the context you've just laid out about the

577
00:31:48,280 --> 00:31:50,120
Speaker 4: ambitions for potentially a civil war.

578
00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:53,520
Speaker 3: We got friends there. Well, we'll make sure you're taking

579
00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:56,240
Speaker 3: care of there. It'll be fine. At first, I read

580
00:31:56,320 --> 00:31:58,640
Speaker 3: that as all airlines will go directly to land.

581
00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:02,080
Speaker 4: Every single are not going to Detroit anymore.

582
00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:05,400
Speaker 3: No, everyone's going to everyone's going to Lebanon. There haven't

583
00:32:05,440 --> 00:32:07,800
Speaker 3: been direct flights from the US to Bay route since

584
00:32:07,800 --> 00:32:10,440
Speaker 3: I think nineteen eighty five. When there was a h

585
00:32:11,320 --> 00:32:14,160
Speaker 3: haswell linked. I think it was heslolinked. I don't know

586
00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:17,760
Speaker 3: enough about it to confirm that. But hijacking, I think

587
00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:20,000
Speaker 3: a plane that was flying from like Rome to Athens

588
00:32:20,120 --> 00:32:22,680
Speaker 3: or something got hijacked and FLOWNDA FLOWNDA Bay route and

589
00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 3: Reagan was like okay, Reagan had already taken all the

590
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:28,280
Speaker 3: Marines out, and I was like, okay, no more, no

591
00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:34,520
Speaker 3: more flights either. But yeah, so Trump and Owner, you know,

592
00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:38,880
Speaker 3: clearly making making making it forming a bond.

593
00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:42,000
Speaker 4: What that's gonna What that does politically to Lebanon is

594
00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:45,680
Speaker 4: an interesting question. Yeah, look to the competing factions for

595
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:46,640
Speaker 4: power in Lebanon.

596
00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:52,200
Speaker 3: Yeah. Meanwhile, the agreement that Trump has with the with

597
00:32:52,320 --> 00:32:55,840
Speaker 3: the Houthis interestingly remains in place. The Houthis over the

598
00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:59,240
Speaker 3: last couple of days announced we'll announced that they actually

599
00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:03,720
Speaker 3: could start with it. You put up B six that

600
00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:09,120
Speaker 3: they they announced that any ships docking in Saudi Saudi

601
00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:12,920
Speaker 3: ports or any Saudi flagged ships are now banned from

602
00:33:13,280 --> 00:33:16,160
Speaker 3: going through the Babel Mendeb Straight, which is the way

603
00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 3: that oil has been basically flowing. You know, it would

604
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:22,840
Speaker 3: go across a pipeline to a Saudi port and then

605
00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:26,440
Speaker 3: through the Red Sea south over to Asia. What it

606
00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:28,480
Speaker 3: has to do now is go up through the Mediterranean.

607
00:33:29,920 --> 00:33:32,720
Speaker 3: If if it if it gets struggled. All if you

608
00:33:32,800 --> 00:33:35,000
Speaker 3: want to have some fun, you can pause that video

609
00:33:35,040 --> 00:33:37,520
Speaker 3: and read the actual like healthy statements. They're also over

610
00:33:37,600 --> 00:33:44,000
Speaker 3: the top, kind of kind of crazy. Uh, the the

611
00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:48,520
Speaker 3: A B five some Saudi tankers. You can put this

612
00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:51,520
Speaker 3: up are all you know. I've already made U turns

613
00:33:51,520 --> 00:33:55,360
Speaker 3: immediately after this this warning because they have seen that

614
00:33:55,520 --> 00:34:00,360
Speaker 3: the the yemen forces there have the ability to those

615
00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:04,600
Speaker 3: strikes out. But interestingly, the US and Yemen still have

616
00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:08,760
Speaker 3: a ceasefire in place because it's a bilateral ceasefire, doesn't

617
00:34:08,760 --> 00:34:11,680
Speaker 3: involve anybody else. It's just between us and them. And

618
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:16,560
Speaker 3: Trump observed that that it's still in place, but threatened

619
00:34:16,600 --> 00:34:19,680
Speaker 3: that if it, if it falls apart, he'll quote unquote

620
00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:21,480
Speaker 3: take care of it. Let's listen to Trump in the

621
00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:24,880
Speaker 3: Oval office. This is before the level of.

622
00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:28,320
Speaker 5: Concern of a blockade of the Red Sea by the

623
00:34:28,400 --> 00:34:31,240
Speaker 5: hoothy rebels opening up another front.

624
00:34:31,120 --> 00:34:31,440
Speaker 4: In the war.

625
00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:35,360
Speaker 5: What happens so far, it hasn't happened, might happen, but

626
00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:37,800
Speaker 5: we take care of things. If something like that happens,

627
00:34:37,880 --> 00:34:39,800
Speaker 5: we take care of it. You know, we've done that

628
00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:43,399
Speaker 5: with the Hooties before, and we haven't heard from them

629
00:34:43,600 --> 00:34:46,400
Speaker 5: in a while since we did what we did. Originally,

630
00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:50,680
Speaker 5: it was about forty five days of very powerful action

631
00:34:50,880 --> 00:34:54,240
Speaker 5: we took against the Hooties, and we've had no problem

632
00:34:54,320 --> 00:34:57,120
Speaker 5: with the Hooties. They've had no problem with us for

633
00:34:57,680 --> 00:35:01,680
Speaker 5: a long period of time, including during this conflict. I

634
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:04,040
Speaker 5: think that if there is something like that, we'll just

635
00:35:04,120 --> 00:35:05,160
Speaker 5: have to take care of business.

636
00:35:05,760 --> 00:35:08,480
Speaker 3: Also, that Oval Office, by the way, I just can't

637
00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:08,920
Speaker 3: get over it.

638
00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:11,320
Speaker 4: I know, it's really it's something. Have you seen the

639
00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:17,680
Speaker 4: outside of the White House? My restaurant Chic just cursive.

640
00:35:18,120 --> 00:35:19,799
Speaker 4: It's like a resort. It's like a golf resort. It's

641
00:35:19,800 --> 00:35:21,600
Speaker 4: like one of his golf resorts. I don't know why

642
00:35:21,680 --> 00:35:23,800
Speaker 4: we're on this tangent right now, but it's truly like

643
00:35:24,400 --> 00:35:27,759
Speaker 4: the Oval Office in Gold cursive outside. So you know,

644
00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:30,120
Speaker 4: when you're on a big resort campus, right that you

645
00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:36,120
Speaker 4: have entered the wreck room, you have entered the restaurant.

646
00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:40,319
Speaker 4: That's what it looks like. It's egregious. And then if

647
00:35:40,320 --> 00:35:42,960
Speaker 4: you if you want a little laugh, you just turn

648
00:35:43,040 --> 00:35:46,600
Speaker 4: over and you see on the wall the Autopen under.

649
00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:49,240
Speaker 3: Joe Biden's name, the actual autopen.

650
00:35:49,320 --> 00:35:52,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, no, he is a picture of the Autopen instead

651
00:35:52,920 --> 00:35:55,320
Speaker 4: of Joe Biden's portrait is all the other presidential portraits

652
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:59,359
Speaker 4: and Biden it's a picture of an autopen. It's actually real,

653
00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:02,239
Speaker 4: actually really can confirm. I have seen it with my

654
00:36:02,280 --> 00:36:02,719
Speaker 4: own eyes.

655
00:36:03,520 --> 00:36:04,000
Speaker 3: Amazing.

656
00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:09,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's something, but truly. The region in chaos right now.

657
00:36:09,680 --> 00:36:11,400
Speaker 4: But don't you worry. Donald Trump is.

658
00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:13,600
Speaker 3: At the helm. Yeah, and so this is good. Yeah,

659
00:36:14,160 --> 00:36:18,440
Speaker 3: if Saudi Arabia is crimped from exporting it's several million

660
00:36:18,480 --> 00:36:23,800
Speaker 3: barrels per day through the Red Sea. The ability of

661
00:36:23,840 --> 00:36:27,280
Speaker 3: the US, like we're still drawing down our strategical petroleum reserve,

662
00:36:27,400 --> 00:36:32,479
Speaker 3: Like yep, the latest we heard from our government expert.

663
00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:34,279
Speaker 3: It's like, you know what, maybe we can go a

664
00:36:34,320 --> 00:36:38,799
Speaker 3: little bit lower on the petroleum reserve then we thought

665
00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:41,319
Speaker 3: we could before. So we can. And as somebody pointed

666
00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:43,920
Speaker 3: out on Twitter, like we're the US is just basically

667
00:36:44,000 --> 00:36:48,000
Speaker 3: driving with the light on at this point, the gas

668
00:36:48,080 --> 00:36:50,239
Speaker 3: light is on, and we're like this is fine, next

669
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:52,759
Speaker 3: exit twenty two miles. Yeah, we can make this.

670
00:36:52,960 --> 00:36:55,040
Speaker 4: We do that with basically all of our policy right now,

671
00:36:55,680 --> 00:36:58,359
Speaker 4: there's the gas, there's the debt. We're just we can

672
00:36:58,440 --> 00:37:01,120
Speaker 4: keep making it a futures down to your point, basically

673
00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:04,360
Speaker 4: across the board except for oil this morning, as we record,

674
00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:07,080
Speaker 4: and that probably explains what we're about to discuss in

675
00:37:07,200 --> 00:37:13,080
Speaker 4: terms of the midterm election pulling. Well, amidst this conversation

676
00:37:13,200 --> 00:37:16,840
Speaker 4: at the White House with the head of Lennon yesterday. Yesterday,

677
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:19,359
Speaker 4: Donald Trump got a question about the midterms.

678
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:22,000
Speaker 7: Here's what he said, Well, you believe that Iran is

679
00:37:22,080 --> 00:37:25,479
Speaker 7: trying to impact the midterm elections by threatening the street

680
00:37:25,520 --> 00:37:26,360
Speaker 7: of four hours.

681
00:37:26,400 --> 00:37:27,759
Speaker 5: They won't have any impact on me.

682
00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:29,680
Speaker 3: I'm just going to do the right thing.

683
00:37:29,800 --> 00:37:32,680
Speaker 5: I don't view it as having an election in a

684
00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:35,800
Speaker 5: period of time, and everyone says, oh, I'm doing something

685
00:37:35,880 --> 00:37:40,640
Speaker 5: before now the election. I can't think about that having

686
00:37:40,680 --> 00:37:43,480
Speaker 5: to do with this. I think people are very impressed.

687
00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:46,440
Speaker 5: I mean, we took over Venezuela. We now have a

688
00:37:46,680 --> 00:37:50,040
Speaker 5: great relationship with Venezuela. We went to war with Venezuela

689
00:37:50,920 --> 00:37:52,759
Speaker 5: and the war ended in one day.

690
00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:56,600
Speaker 4: What he said there was it won't affect me, which

691
00:37:56,680 --> 00:37:59,799
Speaker 4: is exactly what is getting so deep unto the skin

692
00:38:00,160 --> 00:38:03,640
Speaker 4: of Republican operatives around the country and certainly here in Washington,

693
00:38:03,719 --> 00:38:08,560
Speaker 4: d C. Yesterday Fox News ruled out updated power rankings

694
00:38:08,760 --> 00:38:14,040
Speaker 4: for the House and the Senate that spelled disaster for Republicans.

695
00:38:14,239 --> 00:38:17,800
Speaker 4: Let's go ahead and roll first here the Senate power rankings.

696
00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:20,520
Speaker 4: Take a listen to Bill Maligion.

697
00:38:20,920 --> 00:38:23,880
Speaker 9: Beginning with the Senate forecast, Fox News is projecting that

698
00:38:24,040 --> 00:38:26,880
Speaker 9: control of the Senate is essentially just a toss up

699
00:38:26,960 --> 00:38:29,799
Speaker 9: right now, with the balance of power likely coming down

700
00:38:29,840 --> 00:38:32,680
Speaker 9: to Senate seats in four states that are all considered

701
00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:35,920
Speaker 9: coin flips right now. Those four states are colored in yellow.

702
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:40,759
Speaker 9: Fox News projects that Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Maine all

703
00:38:40,840 --> 00:38:43,480
Speaker 9: have Senate races that are all toss ups. These are

704
00:38:43,520 --> 00:38:46,239
Speaker 9: the matchups that will likely end up determining control of

705
00:38:46,320 --> 00:38:46,880
Speaker 9: the Senate now.

706
00:38:47,160 --> 00:38:49,000
Speaker 3: Republicans are lying a handful.

707
00:38:48,640 --> 00:38:52,360
Speaker 9: Of potential Senate pickups in Georgia, New Hampshire, and Michigan,

708
00:38:52,520 --> 00:38:56,120
Speaker 9: all of which Fox News Power rankings project as leaning Democrat,

709
00:38:56,200 --> 00:39:00,920
Speaker 9: while Democrats think they can flip Texas, which obviously lean Republican.

710
00:39:01,560 --> 00:39:03,600
Speaker 4: So a couple of takeaways here not at all surprising

711
00:39:03,640 --> 00:39:06,080
Speaker 4: if you've been following the developments, But they have Michigan

712
00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:09,279
Speaker 4: leaning dem They have North Carolina leaning DEM. I think

713
00:39:09,320 --> 00:39:12,440
Speaker 4: that's abundantly clear from the polling that North Carolina, as

714
00:39:12,480 --> 00:39:15,000
Speaker 4: of right now, at least unless there's some black swan event,

715
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:20,120
Speaker 4: will likely be on election day leaning DEM. Ohio listed

716
00:39:20,200 --> 00:39:22,480
Speaker 4: as a toss up, Alaska listed as a toss up.

717
00:39:22,600 --> 00:39:27,759
Speaker 4: Ohio particularly interesting, very big struggle for Republicans. They didn't

718
00:39:27,760 --> 00:39:30,560
Speaker 4: expect to have such a significant struggle in Ohio at

719
00:39:30,600 --> 00:39:35,320
Speaker 4: this point. But that's exactly what happens coming back. Yeah, absolutely,

720
00:39:35,360 --> 00:39:37,480
Speaker 4: it's exactly what happens when you get into an unpopular

721
00:39:37,520 --> 00:39:39,840
Speaker 4: Warshared Brown is up in the real Clear Politics average

722
00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:42,920
Speaker 4: byzero point six at this point. Polling's been kind of

723
00:39:42,960 --> 00:39:46,360
Speaker 4: clustered together in either direction. But that's just a disaster

724
00:39:46,640 --> 00:39:48,120
Speaker 4: for Republicans at this point.

725
00:39:49,280 --> 00:39:51,200
Speaker 3: And I noticed, and you probably did too, since you

726
00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:53,640
Speaker 3: guys watched this show, that they didn't put Nebraska on

727
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:55,839
Speaker 3: that list. Yeah, if you look closely at it, they

728
00:39:55,920 --> 00:39:59,480
Speaker 3: have it as a likely so pretty dark red YEP Republican.

729
00:40:00,160 --> 00:40:03,320
Speaker 3: I would rate Nebraska as now it's not a Democrat,

730
00:40:03,360 --> 00:40:06,600
Speaker 3: it's an independent who's running Dan Osborne. I'd rate Nebraska

731
00:40:06,680 --> 00:40:08,560
Speaker 3: as more likely to flip than Texas.

732
00:40:09,200 --> 00:40:11,880
Speaker 4: I agree with that he's running in about thirty percent

733
00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:13,880
Speaker 4: according to real Clare Politics right now.

734
00:40:13,800 --> 00:40:18,160
Speaker 3: But that can thirty percent likelihood?

735
00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:21,719
Speaker 4: You mean thirty percent in the let's doo we have here.

736
00:40:22,239 --> 00:40:24,799
Speaker 4: Looks like this is actually polymarket, So he's real good

737
00:40:24,800 --> 00:40:26,920
Speaker 4: politics integrates poly market now. Yeah, so they have him

738
00:40:26,920 --> 00:40:29,360
Speaker 4: at a thirty percent on in polymar.

739
00:40:29,239 --> 00:40:32,320
Speaker 3: Thirty that's higher than I would give tal Rico. Agree completely,

740
00:40:32,320 --> 00:40:34,319
Speaker 3: What do they give to Talerrico. It's a good question,

741
00:40:34,440 --> 00:40:36,239
Speaker 3: not that we should be promoting this guard.

742
00:40:36,280 --> 00:40:36,600
Speaker 9: Yeah, I know.

743
00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:37,759
Speaker 4: I thought it was going to be the poll and

744
00:40:37,840 --> 00:40:40,240
Speaker 4: I pulled it up and it was polymarket. It looks

745
00:40:40,280 --> 00:40:44,200
Speaker 4: like tall Ico is at forty four. Time to get

746
00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:44,799
Speaker 4: in on this one.

747
00:40:45,840 --> 00:40:48,200
Speaker 3: But yeah, so maybe a real Cleare politics is selling

748
00:40:48,239 --> 00:40:51,040
Speaker 3: out to the the polymarket to poly market here. I'm

749
00:40:51,040 --> 00:40:53,239
Speaker 3: sure they're not doing that for free. That's annoying. But

750
00:40:53,360 --> 00:40:58,600
Speaker 3: in any event, if this war continues, I think that

751
00:40:59,239 --> 00:41:03,160
Speaker 3: it gives taler Go a better chance, but also gives

752
00:41:03,200 --> 00:41:07,880
Speaker 3: Dan Osbourne and Nebraska a better chance because O and

753
00:41:07,960 --> 00:41:11,960
Speaker 3: iowas he is just getting wrecked. Turrek could plausibly win and.

754
00:41:12,360 --> 00:41:15,320
Speaker 4: He's up in the latest Fox newspol they had him plus.

755
00:41:15,160 --> 00:41:19,280
Speaker 3: Four, Iowa has been hit harder by Trump than basically

756
00:41:19,320 --> 00:41:24,560
Speaker 3: any other state. The tariffs, the cattle stuff, the soybean stuff,

757
00:41:26,920 --> 00:41:29,360
Speaker 3: like he's just killing them all over the place.

758
00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:32,640
Speaker 4: Which in the first term, you would see a lot

759
00:41:32,719 --> 00:41:36,319
Speaker 4: of sites, you'd see a lot of patients, or you'd

760
00:41:36,360 --> 00:41:39,800
Speaker 4: hear a lot of patients, particularly from Trump friendly farmers

761
00:41:40,040 --> 00:41:43,320
Speaker 4: in Trump's first administration, because they understood there needed to

762
00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:45,400
Speaker 4: be I think everybody understands there needs to be some

763
00:41:45,520 --> 00:41:49,120
Speaker 4: type of regriggering. But no question that in the second administration,

764
00:41:49,360 --> 00:41:52,080
Speaker 4: as Trump has been much more ad hoc, that patients

765
00:41:52,160 --> 00:41:55,920
Speaker 4: has likely worn't thinner in many communities around Iowa. So

766
00:41:56,360 --> 00:42:01,279
Speaker 4: on the House side, Yeah, and Maine, could I mean,

767
00:42:01,320 --> 00:42:03,520
Speaker 4: what do you think of of Maine right now? Because

768
00:42:03,560 --> 00:42:06,320
Speaker 4: Troy Jackson was up in a recent poll over Susan Collins.

769
00:42:06,600 --> 00:42:10,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, Troy Jackson doesn't have the same riz obviously as

770
00:42:10,760 --> 00:42:16,680
Speaker 3: as Platner, but to say the least. But but he's,

771
00:42:17,640 --> 00:42:22,879
Speaker 3: you know, a very credible progressive, populist, working class guy

772
00:42:23,560 --> 00:42:26,319
Speaker 3: with a lot of people and mane don't know who

773
00:42:26,360 --> 00:42:26,560
Speaker 3: he is.

774
00:42:27,160 --> 00:42:30,600
Speaker 4: But that's and so that that'll give that could be

775
00:42:30,640 --> 00:42:32,000
Speaker 4: a good thing for Democrats.

776
00:42:31,640 --> 00:42:33,560
Speaker 3: Could go both ways. Susan Collins is going to spend

777
00:42:34,239 --> 00:42:37,239
Speaker 3: you know, one hundred million dollars defining him as God

778
00:42:37,320 --> 00:42:40,800
Speaker 3: only knows what, who knows what they'll try to unearth

779
00:42:40,840 --> 00:42:45,600
Speaker 3: about him, But he's he's a very very serious candidate.

780
00:42:45,680 --> 00:42:48,840
Speaker 3: I think he's probably more likely to win than than not.

781
00:42:51,040 --> 00:42:54,440
Speaker 3: And it doesn't help Susan Collins for Trump to continue

782
00:42:54,480 --> 00:42:57,720
Speaker 3: this this war for another deep into the fall.

783
00:42:58,760 --> 00:43:02,160
Speaker 4: As a brutal one ahead. Let's take a look at

784
00:43:02,200 --> 00:43:05,000
Speaker 4: the House now. This is Fox News is House power

785
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:07,840
Speaker 4: rankings now projecting that Democrats will take the House. And

786
00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:09,560
Speaker 4: by the way, before we leave the Senate just occurs

787
00:43:09,560 --> 00:43:12,239
Speaker 4: to me about a year ago here in Washington, talk

788
00:43:12,360 --> 00:43:16,160
Speaker 4: in geop circles was basically, we got the Senate. Don't

789
00:43:16,160 --> 00:43:18,080
Speaker 4: worry about this. Yeah, the House, we might we might

790
00:43:18,160 --> 00:43:20,880
Speaker 4: lose a little bit in the House, we might have

791
00:43:21,160 --> 00:43:24,360
Speaker 4: a slim minority. There might be a little bit of

792
00:43:24,400 --> 00:43:26,920
Speaker 4: a margin, a small margin between us and the Democrats.

793
00:43:26,960 --> 00:43:28,800
Speaker 4: We might go back into the minority, but the Senate

794
00:43:28,840 --> 00:43:31,320
Speaker 4: will almost certainly be Okay. That's what you were getting

795
00:43:31,360 --> 00:43:35,560
Speaker 4: from the kind of stages of Republican politics here in

796
00:43:35,680 --> 00:43:38,320
Speaker 4: Washington a year ago. Now, not only is that a

797
00:43:38,400 --> 00:43:40,640
Speaker 4: toss up, but of course the House is looking worse

798
00:43:40,680 --> 00:43:43,840
Speaker 4: and worse for Republicans. Let's rule new Fox News polling

799
00:43:43,960 --> 00:43:46,359
Speaker 4: again or new Fox News projections C three.

800
00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:49,960
Speaker 9: As for the House, Fox News projects that Democrats have

801
00:43:50,080 --> 00:43:52,560
Speaker 9: the lead to flip control of the House back to blue,

802
00:43:52,640 --> 00:43:55,120
Speaker 9: and they're in better shape than Republicans there. Right now,

803
00:43:55,200 --> 00:43:58,320
Speaker 9: there are sixteen House seats projected as toss ups that

804
00:43:58,440 --> 00:44:02,359
Speaker 9: will end up designing control, So Republican redistricting wins could

805
00:44:02,480 --> 00:44:05,200
Speaker 9: end up blunting some of the losses that the GOP

806
00:44:05,480 --> 00:44:08,479
Speaker 9: was potentially facing. The Fox News power rankings also show

807
00:44:08,880 --> 00:44:12,400
Speaker 9: as of right now, voters preferred Democrats on the generic

808
00:44:12,480 --> 00:44:17,399
Speaker 9: ballot against Republicans by about four percent. That's a flip

809
00:44:17,440 --> 00:44:21,080
Speaker 9: from twenty twenty four when Republicans led that by one percent.

810
00:44:21,160 --> 00:44:23,520
Speaker 9: So you're looking at about a five point swing towards

811
00:44:23,600 --> 00:44:26,040
Speaker 9: Democrats since the twenty twenty four race.

812
00:44:26,880 --> 00:44:30,759
Speaker 4: No, that's interesting, Ryan, because actually Democrats probably should have

813
00:44:31,040 --> 00:44:33,359
Speaker 4: an even bigger lead in these House races. And Harry

814
00:44:33,400 --> 00:44:36,719
Speaker 4: and ten on CNN recently was showing differences in how

815
00:44:36,760 --> 00:44:39,279
Speaker 4: Democrats are running now in the generic congressional ballot versus

816
00:44:39,560 --> 00:44:42,759
Speaker 4: two thousand and six and twenty eighteen, both blue Wave

817
00:44:42,840 --> 00:44:46,839
Speaker 4: twenty eighteen basically blue Synomi years. And they actually don't

818
00:44:46,880 --> 00:44:48,960
Speaker 4: have as big of a lead in the generic congressional

819
00:44:49,000 --> 00:44:51,400
Speaker 4: ballot right now as they did at the same points

820
00:44:51,440 --> 00:44:55,080
Speaker 4: in time twenty six and twenty eighteen. So those numbers,

821
00:44:55,080 --> 00:44:57,040
Speaker 4: I mean, sixteen toss up races Dems right now with

822
00:44:57,120 --> 00:45:00,000
Speaker 4: I think it was a three margin plus three margins

823
00:45:00,200 --> 00:45:02,759
Speaker 4: in the Fox News power rankings. If they pick up

824
00:45:02,800 --> 00:45:06,680
Speaker 4: all sixteen toss ups all ten toss ups, that's getting

825
00:45:06,719 --> 00:45:08,640
Speaker 4: in the healthier direction, but it's still going to be

826
00:45:08,719 --> 00:45:12,839
Speaker 4: a pretty slim majority for them. It's either way, we're

827
00:45:12,840 --> 00:45:14,040
Speaker 4: looking at probably more deadlock.

828
00:45:15,000 --> 00:45:17,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, in my sense, I guess this is not a

829
00:45:17,880 --> 00:45:21,440
Speaker 3: novel thought. Is that just the increasing polarization of the

830
00:45:21,480 --> 00:45:25,680
Speaker 3: country as more people just identify as either a Democrat

831
00:45:25,800 --> 00:45:28,759
Speaker 3: or a Republican or they call themselves an independent, but

832
00:45:28,800 --> 00:45:31,160
Speaker 3: they always vote Democrat or Republican.

833
00:45:31,320 --> 00:45:31,480
Speaker 4: YEP.

834
00:45:31,920 --> 00:45:37,360
Speaker 3: As that phenomenon, it continues to kind of calcify or coagulate,

835
00:45:38,800 --> 00:45:41,560
Speaker 3: you're just going to have there's less room for a wave,

836
00:45:42,480 --> 00:45:45,640
Speaker 3: Like it's a wave instead of washing up on sand,

837
00:45:45,719 --> 00:45:46,960
Speaker 3: it's washing up on granite.

838
00:45:47,719 --> 00:45:50,640
Speaker 4: To your point. In January, Gallup found a record number

839
00:45:50,760 --> 00:45:53,160
Speaker 4: of people in the United States identifying as political of

840
00:45:53,360 --> 00:45:56,040
Speaker 4: political independence. That's up to forty five percent, and it's

841
00:45:56,040 --> 00:45:57,280
Speaker 4: been a very steep industry.

842
00:45:57,480 --> 00:46:01,880
Speaker 3: They say that, but they're less independent in their behavior.

843
00:46:02,000 --> 00:46:06,600
Speaker 4: They are people who are ideological but not necessarily partisan.

844
00:46:06,800 --> 00:46:09,200
Speaker 4: They just tend to swing one direction or the other.

845
00:46:09,480 --> 00:46:11,680
Speaker 4: But that's towards populist candidates in a lot of cases.

846
00:46:12,280 --> 00:46:14,400
Speaker 4: I think that's probably where you see the increase growing up,

847
00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:16,879
Speaker 4: especially going up, especially with Trump and Bernie Sanders. It's

848
00:46:16,880 --> 00:46:18,880
Speaker 4: somebody who's a standards or Trump voter might think of

849
00:46:18,920 --> 00:46:23,560
Speaker 4: themselves as independent, but find themselves reliably voting in one

850
00:46:23,600 --> 00:46:24,480
Speaker 4: direction over the other.

851
00:46:24,760 --> 00:46:27,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, exactly. And so no matter what happens, you're

852
00:46:27,680 --> 00:46:30,160
Speaker 3: going to have just less of a movement. Plus with

853
00:46:30,719 --> 00:46:35,160
Speaker 3: the redistricting, you really take off the board a lot

854
00:46:35,239 --> 00:46:38,120
Speaker 3: of races that might otherwise be in play.

855
00:46:38,280 --> 00:46:41,160
Speaker 4: Well what the redistricting. Republicans have had so much swagger

856
00:46:41,200 --> 00:46:43,160
Speaker 4: in the last couple of months about how they're going

857
00:46:43,280 --> 00:46:45,480
Speaker 4: to be just fine in the House of Representatives, and

858
00:46:45,520 --> 00:46:48,279
Speaker 4: again here you have Fox News projections putting them.

859
00:46:48,400 --> 00:46:50,160
Speaker 3: Like they think they might hold it at this point.

860
00:46:50,480 --> 00:46:51,720
Speaker 3: That's what They're pretty confident.

861
00:46:51,800 --> 00:46:55,560
Speaker 4: They had a new found pep in their step after

862
00:46:55,840 --> 00:46:58,000
Speaker 4: the redistricting on the Supreme Court decision.

863
00:46:58,080 --> 00:47:00,399
Speaker 3: But it's I mean, they have Democrats of no money.

864
00:47:01,320 --> 00:47:04,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, they're being outspent for sure. Which there's just a

865
00:47:04,160 --> 00:47:07,040
Speaker 4: report and playbook this morning about Democrats frustrated over their

866
00:47:07,440 --> 00:47:08,600
Speaker 4: spending disadvantage.

867
00:47:09,120 --> 00:47:12,360
Speaker 3: Trump like the entire D triple cy has like, you know,

868
00:47:12,480 --> 00:47:16,200
Speaker 3: five dollars and Haley Stevens has like seventy million dollars

869
00:47:16,320 --> 00:47:18,160
Speaker 3: being spent for her and she's gonna probably going to

870
00:47:18,239 --> 00:47:19,200
Speaker 3: lose the trip.

871
00:47:19,400 --> 00:47:24,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, Like, yes, Trump ran the table in Arizona last night.

872
00:47:24,960 --> 00:47:29,880
Speaker 4: He got Ai Biggs his endorsement, also got Karen Taylor Robson,

873
00:47:30,600 --> 00:47:33,319
Speaker 4: and it's looking like some interesting races for the fall

874
00:47:33,960 --> 00:47:36,319
Speaker 4: down there. What else happened in Arizona last night? Any

875
00:47:36,400 --> 00:47:38,880
Speaker 4: interesting DSA stuff populist the stuff.

876
00:47:39,040 --> 00:47:44,040
Speaker 3: Yes, the first first district what's his name, Amy Shah

877
00:47:46,480 --> 00:47:51,360
Speaker 3: was had like two or three million dollars spent against

878
00:47:51,440 --> 00:47:56,440
Speaker 3: him basically by a pack front groups and the D

879
00:47:56,560 --> 00:47:59,400
Speaker 3: Triple C supported his opponent, and so it's kind of

880
00:47:59,480 --> 00:48:03,520
Speaker 3: like an a D Triple C alliance and and Shah won,

881
00:48:04,239 --> 00:48:07,120
Speaker 3: and so he'll go he'll go to the general.

882
00:48:07,640 --> 00:48:07,759
Speaker 9: Uh.

883
00:48:08,040 --> 00:48:11,880
Speaker 3: Then you had in the fourth district, Kai k Newkirk,

884
00:48:11,920 --> 00:48:15,160
Speaker 3: who we had on the program, spent almost no money

885
00:48:16,320 --> 00:48:18,840
Speaker 3: and ran against Greg Stanton at a top kind of

886
00:48:19,160 --> 00:48:21,960
Speaker 3: pro business new Democrat and ended up with I think

887
00:48:22,000 --> 00:48:24,880
Speaker 3: thirty thirty plus thirty five percent or so, but so

888
00:48:25,480 --> 00:48:29,480
Speaker 3: not not terribly close, but he got a much bigger

889
00:48:29,600 --> 00:48:33,280
Speaker 3: chunk than an incumbent would like to see from somebody

890
00:48:33,320 --> 00:48:34,880
Speaker 3: who spent like a honor grand or something.

891
00:48:35,320 --> 00:48:35,560
Speaker 2: Wow.

892
00:48:36,400 --> 00:48:40,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, and nobody voted like the the like if you

893
00:48:40,040 --> 00:48:45,279
Speaker 3: look at the actual turnout, yeah, here, So in the

894
00:48:45,320 --> 00:48:52,960
Speaker 3: first district you've got Ami Shah won the vote with

895
00:48:53,000 --> 00:48:56,760
Speaker 3: twenty six thousand votes and beat the D tripleC candidate.

896
00:48:56,840 --> 00:49:02,000
Speaker 3: So like total of sixty thousand people voting, Arizona doesn't

897
00:49:02,000 --> 00:49:06,440
Speaker 3: have the most robust kind of democratic primary participation.

898
00:49:06,680 --> 00:49:10,800
Speaker 4: You could say, yes, all right. And finally, I just

899
00:49:10,920 --> 00:49:13,440
Speaker 4: wanted to note since we mentioned those gap numbers, record high.

900
00:49:13,360 --> 00:49:14,880
Speaker 3: Two thousand voted in the fourth district.

901
00:49:15,520 --> 00:49:20,600
Speaker 4: Jeez, wow, that record high of people identifying as independence.

902
00:49:20,680 --> 00:49:22,080
Speaker 4: Just an interesting note on that. If you go back

903
00:49:22,120 --> 00:49:24,400
Speaker 4: and you look at Gallops data that starts to spike

904
00:49:24,920 --> 00:49:27,399
Speaker 4: at a very particular time, and it's two thousand and eight,

905
00:49:28,160 --> 00:49:30,719
Speaker 4: so it tells you about the direction of politics have

906
00:49:30,840 --> 00:49:31,479
Speaker 4: gone since