WEBVTT - Drive Time: Dolphins Bills Week 18 Preview 0:00:00.480 --> 0:00:05.120 Drive Time with Travis Wingfield begins. Now let me check 0:00:05.120 --> 0:00:09.840 your pulse if you're not of What is up? Dolphins? 0:00:09.920 --> 0:00:12.840 And welcome to the Draft Time Podcast, part of the 0:00:12.880 --> 0:00:17.720 Miami Dolphins podcast network covering your team, your Miami Dolphins. 0:00:17.760 --> 0:00:20.680 How's it going everybody? I am your host, Travis Wingfield. 0:00:20.720 --> 0:00:23.360 And on today's show, have we all turned the page yet? 0:00:23.400 --> 0:00:25.840 I think I'm getting there because you know what time 0:00:25.880 --> 0:00:29.120 it is? Man, put away the tears and the onion chopping. Man, 0:00:29.160 --> 0:00:31.880 It's Dolphins and Bills for the Division on primetime. Let's 0:00:31.880 --> 0:00:34.600 get it from the Baptist Hill Studios inside the Baptist 0:00:34.640 --> 0:00:39.600 Health Training Complex. This is the Draft Time Podcast. May 0:00:39.920 --> 0:00:44.560 guess I think we'll start this portion of the podcast 0:00:44.600 --> 0:00:47.519 differently than we usually do with the introduction, because you know, 0:00:47.560 --> 0:00:50.200 the Bills, you know the drill just a crash course. 0:00:50.240 --> 0:00:53.880 Here a team that has recently really taken construction under 0:00:53.880 --> 0:00:57.760 the traits of their quarterback and maximizing his ability to 0:00:57.920 --> 0:01:00.360 lead them to the promised lamb and done it yet 0:01:00.800 --> 0:01:03.000 hadn't even got there yet. But that said, this is 0:01:03.040 --> 0:01:06.080 a team that has really leaned on defensive play making 0:01:06.120 --> 0:01:10.039 and the ground game lately. A team that has ridden 0:01:10.120 --> 0:01:13.200 defensive splash plays, and that running game one hundred and 0:01:13.200 --> 0:01:16.319 eighteen yards to two hundred and nine yards rushed versus 0:01:16.400 --> 0:01:18.440 pass against the Chiefs, the one that really kicked off 0:01:18.440 --> 0:01:20.959 this winning streak for them, eighty five yards passing in 0:01:21.000 --> 0:01:24.960 two sixty six versus Dallas on the ground, then two 0:01:25.160 --> 0:01:27.920 thirty pass one h five versus the Chargers, but last 0:01:27.959 --> 0:01:31.200 week again one twenty seven on the ground compared to 0:01:31.240 --> 0:01:33.440 one fifty four through the air versus the Patriots. And 0:01:33.520 --> 0:01:37.000 in those games two takeaways one takeaway zero and then 0:01:37.080 --> 0:01:38.679 four in the game last they won us a game 0:01:38.720 --> 0:01:44.160 by six points with a four to one turnover margin. Gosh, 0:01:44.160 --> 0:01:46.600 if the Patches protect the football, this is probably already 0:01:46.720 --> 0:01:48.920 a rap for the division. But they've been through a 0:01:48.960 --> 0:01:51.560 crazy season. And I said this all off season long, 0:01:51.600 --> 0:01:54.080 those who were riding off the bills, Well, I think 0:01:54.160 --> 0:01:56.120 I said that it was stupid to do it, But 0:01:56.760 --> 0:01:59.560 then you looked right, So maybe I was stupid. But 0:01:59.640 --> 0:02:02.160 now they're playing better, and some folks have them ticketed 0:02:02.240 --> 0:02:04.440 for a Super Bowl run, or at least the biggest 0:02:04.440 --> 0:02:06.760 threat to Baltimore to do so. And now I find 0:02:06.800 --> 0:02:09.280 myself as the ultimate contrarian. Once again because I'm just 0:02:09.280 --> 0:02:12.239 not so sure about that. I think the performances against 0:02:12.320 --> 0:02:14.760 lesser teams can be telling. And the Bills were a 0:02:14.800 --> 0:02:17.040 third down to nine pass breakup that the guy probably 0:02:17.040 --> 0:02:19.280 should have had and he missed it by an inch 0:02:19.360 --> 0:02:21.480 against the Chargers from losing that game two weeks ago. 0:02:21.600 --> 0:02:23.600 Then they gave Bailey Zappi a shot to win the 0:02:23.639 --> 0:02:26.160 game with a ninety three yard six minute drive. He 0:02:26.200 --> 0:02:28.200 couldn't do it, obviously because he's Billy Zappy, but it 0:02:28.280 --> 0:02:30.120 was there for them. And this goes back to the 0:02:30.120 --> 0:02:33.040 off season once again, because this is where I understood 0:02:33.040 --> 0:02:35.000 the argument they wouldn't get better, but knowing the coaching 0:02:35.040 --> 0:02:37.680 staff and the quarterback and the continuity they have on defense, 0:02:38.040 --> 0:02:39.799 but they were going to be fine, right They are fine. 0:02:39.800 --> 0:02:42.160 They're going to make the playoffs most likely, most likely. 0:02:42.840 --> 0:02:45.919 But on balance, they didn't really give alan more weapons. 0:02:45.960 --> 0:02:50.519 The offensive line got better, mostly because of the health 0:02:50.560 --> 0:02:53.440 of that offensive line, but the injuries on defense. They've 0:02:53.520 --> 0:02:55.960 just kind of been decent all year long. They very 0:02:56.000 --> 0:02:58.720 easily could have lost games of the Giants, Bucks, Chargers, 0:02:58.720 --> 0:03:01.280 and the Patriots last week, which any of those losses 0:03:01.280 --> 0:03:03.679 would have made this game a one o'clock kickoff, right 0:03:03.919 --> 0:03:05.960 because the Dolphins have it all wrapped up. Or if 0:03:05.960 --> 0:03:08.840 Mammy beats the Titans, oh, just win the game because 0:03:08.840 --> 0:03:10.959 there's so many what ifs in the schedule for us. 0:03:12.040 --> 0:03:14.240 But then they also have late game dramatics and they 0:03:14.280 --> 0:03:16.720 win over the Chiefs, they roll up the Cowboys. Just 0:03:16.880 --> 0:03:20.160 a wild, wild season, and the result of it is 0:03:20.160 --> 0:03:21.799 they get to come to Miami to play a game 0:03:21.800 --> 0:03:23.400 they are favored to win. And I think that has 0:03:23.440 --> 0:03:25.440 more to do with the injuries than anything else. And 0:03:25.480 --> 0:03:27.520 I get that we're banged up and that those lines 0:03:27.560 --> 0:03:30.600 are more perception based than anything, but man, the Dolphins 0:03:30.600 --> 0:03:32.680 are seven to one in that building across the street. 0:03:32.840 --> 0:03:34.960 They are nineteen and three in their last twenty two 0:03:34.960 --> 0:03:37.040 games in that same building over that span at Home 0:03:38.360 --> 0:03:41.480 one and Ozer over Buffalo. All right, that's a slight 0:03:41.560 --> 0:03:44.920 sidetrack from where we were going. And I just walked 0:03:44.920 --> 0:03:46.800 myself into a point that annoys me because back to 0:03:46.800 --> 0:03:49.680 the Bills, They've overcome some pretty serious injuries, but they 0:03:49.680 --> 0:03:52.080 got back a huge piece in Daikwan. Jones last week 0:03:52.200 --> 0:03:55.640 made probably the best trade of the entire deadline trade 0:03:55.680 --> 0:03:58.520 deadline by acquiring Rasoul Douglas to essentially fill the void 0:03:58.600 --> 0:04:01.200 left by Trey White, and he's played better than Trey 0:04:01.240 --> 0:04:03.800 White ever was. And as the Dolphins are very banged up, 0:04:03.800 --> 0:04:06.839 they've gotten healthier. I mentioned Jones, They got Dawson knocks back, 0:04:06.880 --> 0:04:09.080 Micah Hides back in the lineup after missing some games, 0:04:09.760 --> 0:04:11.800 so they'll be at full strength. They're gonna want to 0:04:11.800 --> 0:04:13.680 win this game. They're gonna want to get a tonement 0:04:13.760 --> 0:04:15.640 for last year, and they're gonna want a toement for 0:04:15.720 --> 0:04:18.560 what's been a difficult up and down season. But as 0:04:18.560 --> 0:04:21.320 tough as it's been, either of these teams has a 0:04:21.400 --> 0:04:24.359 real real shot to put themselves in great position for 0:04:24.400 --> 0:04:26.599 a postseason run. That two seed compared to the six 0:04:26.680 --> 0:04:29.599 or seven is a major difference, not just in your competition, 0:04:29.680 --> 0:04:32.320 but obviously in the venues those games will take place. 0:04:32.360 --> 0:04:35.640 You go from potentially two home playoff games to having 0:04:35.640 --> 0:04:38.679 to win three road games just to make this Super Bowl. 0:04:38.880 --> 0:04:41.479 Let's actually bump what's at stake to this portion of 0:04:41.560 --> 0:04:43.880 the show, because I think it's important to get the 0:04:43.960 --> 0:04:46.120 scenarios out there for you guys right away. So number 0:04:46.120 --> 0:04:48.640 one off the top, the Dolphins can play the Chiefs 0:04:48.680 --> 0:04:52.560 in the wildcard round. If they lose the Bills, that's it. 0:04:52.640 --> 0:04:55.360 You lose to Buffalo, you go to KC. You can 0:04:55.400 --> 0:05:00.480 host the Bills in the wildcard round with these following scenarios. 0:05:00.520 --> 0:05:04.200 If you beat Buffalo and then Jacksonville beats Tennessee and 0:05:04.279 --> 0:05:09.240 Baltimore beats Pittsburgh, or you beat Buffalo and Tennessee beats Jacksonville, 0:05:09.320 --> 0:05:12.000 so that one flips right and Pittsburgh beats Baltimore. Like 0:05:12.040 --> 0:05:16.680 there are some funky scenarios that equate to this. So 0:05:16.880 --> 0:05:20.440 verst Buffalo if you beat them, and then the Jacksonville 0:05:20.440 --> 0:05:24.040 Tennessee result has to coincide with the Baltimore Pittsburgh result 0:05:24.200 --> 0:05:27.920 to make this happen. Now, you can play Pittsburgh at home. Ideal, right, 0:05:28.400 --> 0:05:32.359 if you beat Buffalo and if Jacksonville beats Tennessee and 0:05:32.560 --> 0:05:35.000 Pittsburgh beats Baltimore. And by the way, the line for 0:05:35.040 --> 0:05:38.440 Pittsburgh Baltimore already came out. The Steelers are favored, which 0:05:38.480 --> 0:05:40.640 tells you Lamar Jackson will not play in that game. 0:05:41.279 --> 0:05:43.560 So on Saturday you're rooting for Pittsburgh, I think, And 0:05:43.600 --> 0:05:46.440 then if that happens that way, you root for Jacksonville, 0:05:46.600 --> 0:05:48.799 and if Baltimore wins, then you root for the Titans. 0:05:48.839 --> 0:05:51.240 Does that make sense? You can also play Pittsburgh at 0:05:51.240 --> 0:05:56.520 home if you beat Buffalo, Tennessee beat Jacksonville, Baltimore beats Pittsburgh, 0:05:56.560 --> 0:05:58.800 but Denver beats Las Vegas. Where the hell does that 0:05:58.839 --> 0:06:00.599 come from? I don't know that's how it works. You 0:06:00.640 --> 0:06:04.440 can host the Jaguars if you beat Buffalo. If Tennessee 0:06:04.480 --> 0:06:08.840 beats Jacksonville and Baltimore beats Pittsburgh, but Las Vegas beats Denver, 0:06:09.279 --> 0:06:12.200 that crazy? What the hell man? Crazy scenario is here? 0:06:12.440 --> 0:06:15.680 I think we all agree the best case scenario here 0:06:15.760 --> 0:06:18.520 is the two seed and seeing Pittsburgh or Jacksonville. Right, 0:06:18.760 --> 0:06:20.320 let me do it this way for you in terms 0:06:20.400 --> 0:06:23.760 of your rooting guide. So if Baltimore wins on Saturday, 0:06:24.040 --> 0:06:28.719 Tennessee must beat Jacksonville non negotiable, and then the Vegas 0:06:28.760 --> 0:06:30.800 and Denver game, two teams who don't give a hell 0:06:30.800 --> 0:06:33.640 about the rest of their season. That will decide your opponent. 0:06:33.640 --> 0:06:35.880 And in fact, this could be the dream scenario because 0:06:35.960 --> 0:06:39.600 if if you get Baltimore to win on Saturday, and 0:06:39.640 --> 0:06:41.680 I think it's a real possibility, actually I'm gonna pick 0:06:41.720 --> 0:06:43.560 the Ravens to win that game. Even with Snoop Huntley. 0:06:44.000 --> 0:06:46.040 I think their backup quarterback is better than every quarterback 0:06:46.040 --> 0:06:47.800 the Steelers have, so I wouldn't it picked them, And 0:06:47.839 --> 0:06:51.480 then you'd need Tennessee to beat Jacksonville, and that I 0:06:51.520 --> 0:06:53.240 would not feel as good about. But here's the thing. 0:06:53.480 --> 0:06:55.880 If you get those two results in those games, the 0:06:55.920 --> 0:06:58.800 Bills clinch and they clinch the sixth seed. And look, 0:06:58.800 --> 0:07:01.080 if we have to play buff in the playoffs whatever, 0:07:01.080 --> 0:07:03.480 bringing up baby, but we're looking for the ideal path, right. 0:07:03.680 --> 0:07:06.280 This would set the bracket like this case and Buffalo 0:07:06.320 --> 0:07:09.240 three to six, Houston or Indy versus Cleveland in the 0:07:09.240 --> 0:07:11.840 four to five game, and then US versus either Jacksonville 0:07:11.920 --> 0:07:14.640 or Pittsburgh depending on that freaking Raiders and Broncos game. 0:07:14.880 --> 0:07:17.440 I am going to assume Buffalo wins in case. In 0:07:17.480 --> 0:07:20.000 that event, I'll pick Miami in Casey as well, which 0:07:20.040 --> 0:07:22.680 would make for a trip to Baltimore for that six 0:07:22.760 --> 0:07:26.240 seeded team. That means, if you then beat Pittsburgh or Jacksonville, 0:07:26.520 --> 0:07:29.880 you would then draw the winner of Cleveland and in 0:07:30.240 --> 0:07:33.000 versus Houston and India or Indy. And of course, if 0:07:33.080 --> 0:07:37.280 Case won, that's who we would host. But if Buffalo wins, 0:07:37.520 --> 0:07:40.560 you would then get Jacksonville or Pittsburgh and then Cleveland, 0:07:40.560 --> 0:07:43.360 Houston or Indy. Like we've beaten those teams by double 0:07:43.360 --> 0:07:45.960 digit scores all year long, haven't we. But I think 0:07:46.040 --> 0:07:48.600 I'm picking either us or Buffalo in that game in Arrowhead, 0:07:48.640 --> 0:07:50.920 by the way, that's the dream. The other scenario is 0:07:50.960 --> 0:07:53.800 Pittsburgh wins the Saturday game, and that's probably what you 0:07:53.840 --> 0:07:56.680 want to root for, because then Jacksonville is playing for 0:07:56.720 --> 0:07:59.920 the division and will probably beat the Titans. Right most likely, 0:08:00.080 --> 0:08:02.600 I don't know, maybe not it's the NFL, but I 0:08:02.640 --> 0:08:05.120 think Baltimore beats pitt and I think jackson wins too, 0:08:05.440 --> 0:08:08.000 So that brings us to the two most likely scenarios 0:08:08.000 --> 0:08:09.760 and being the two that we probably want the least. 0:08:09.760 --> 0:08:13.720 Pittsburgh beats Baltimore, Jacksonville beats Tennessee, then we play the Steelers. 0:08:13.760 --> 0:08:17.000 But if Tennessee beats Jacksonville after pitt wins, then Buffalo 0:08:17.040 --> 0:08:19.720 turns right back around and comes here for Wildcard weekend. 0:08:19.760 --> 0:08:23.320 And all those scenarios require us winning on Sunday night, 0:08:23.320 --> 0:08:26.080 because if we lose, there's one option, a trip to KC, 0:08:26.240 --> 0:08:28.840 and in that bracket, Buffalo probably draws the winner of 0:08:28.880 --> 0:08:31.760 Houston and Indy in the two seven game, and they're 0:08:31.760 --> 0:08:34.080 gonna beat that team, and then we get KC, and 0:08:34.120 --> 0:08:36.280 then we would get to go to Baltimore in the 0:08:36.360 --> 0:08:39.560 next round unless Houston or Indy upset Buffalo in the 0:08:39.559 --> 0:08:43.200 wildcard rounds. So basically, if you lose on Saturday night, 0:08:43.280 --> 0:08:45.840 it's at CAC or on Sunday night, it's at KC 0:08:46.440 --> 0:08:49.880 at Baltimore in your first two rounds. Fun some storylines here. 0:08:49.880 --> 0:08:52.320 A division championship could be the first since two thousand 0:08:52.320 --> 0:08:55.520 and eight, fifteen years ago. Also means the first home 0:08:55.559 --> 0:08:58.280 playoff game in that same time span. Based on the results, 0:08:58.360 --> 0:09:02.440 you could eliminate Buffalo from the playoffs. That's the dream, right. 0:09:02.720 --> 0:09:04.880 Don't you want to go the next six months, seven 0:09:04.920 --> 0:09:07.280 months here talking about how you knocked the Bills out 0:09:07.320 --> 0:09:10.120 of the playoffs to win the division. I don't want 0:09:10.120 --> 0:09:11.679 to talk for the next six months to Bills fans 0:09:11.720 --> 0:09:14.040 about the three game lead to be blue. That's what 0:09:14.080 --> 0:09:17.480 I want. Your recent run against Buffalo. Every team seems 0:09:17.480 --> 0:09:19.440 to have that one team that gives them the biggest problems, 0:09:19.440 --> 0:09:21.600 and for us, it's freaking Buffalo, right. They have won 0:09:21.679 --> 0:09:23.840 nine to the last ten but the one was the 0:09:23.880 --> 0:09:26.120 last time they've visited here. It will be a night 0:09:26.160 --> 0:09:28.320 game compared to a September one pm game, so they 0:09:28.320 --> 0:09:30.840 can't blame OSHA for this one. They've won the AFC 0:09:30.920 --> 0:09:33.080 East last three years. Would love to end that streak. 0:09:33.240 --> 0:09:35.120 And if we win, it'll be the first time since 0:09:35.320 --> 0:09:38.360 eight that somebody besides New England and Buffalo won the 0:09:38.360 --> 0:09:40.600 AFC East. The Jets haven't won it since, like freaking 0:09:40.760 --> 0:09:45.959 the Reagan administration. Overcoming injuries is a big storyline here. 0:09:46.000 --> 0:09:51.120 Dolphins will be without left guard one, center one, maybe 0:09:51.160 --> 0:09:53.400 wide receiver two. We'll see about Waddell. Got some good 0:09:53.440 --> 0:09:55.120 news about him on Wednesday. We'll see if he goes 0:09:55.480 --> 0:09:58.760 cornerback one or rather cornerback two. I shouldn't say exaving 0:09:58.760 --> 0:10:01.600 Howard probably not gonna play. Outside linebackers one and two 0:10:01.679 --> 0:10:04.360 Chubbin Phillips out, and then we'll see about running back one, 0:10:04.440 --> 0:10:07.120 rahe Moster. I assume he goes Robert Hunt. Right guard 0:10:07.200 --> 0:10:09.520 one I assume he goes as well, and middle linebacker 0:10:09.520 --> 0:10:12.280 one Jerome Baker, who was injured and returned to practice 0:10:12.600 --> 0:10:15.040 on Wednesday. If they can win this game, it'll be 0:10:15.080 --> 0:10:17.280 a big feather in the cap of several key figures 0:10:17.360 --> 0:10:21.360 McDaniel his staff to I've talked about legacy games a 0:10:21.360 --> 0:10:23.960 little bit. This could potentially be a positive legacy game, 0:10:24.280 --> 0:10:26.280 even though we're gonna get a whole bunch more of 0:10:26.320 --> 0:10:29.120 them in the future down the road. All right, Oh yeah, 0:10:29.160 --> 0:10:31.440 I almost forgot whether it's supposed to be in the 0:10:31.440 --> 0:10:34.559 low sixties at kickoff, and there's a twenty five percent 0:10:34.640 --> 0:10:38.160 chance of reign but a pretty nice January South Florida. 0:10:38.160 --> 0:10:40.400 Even Let's go ahead and pick this up here before 0:10:40.400 --> 0:10:42.440 our first break and talk about the Bills lineup on 0:10:42.600 --> 0:10:46.080 defense versus the Miami offense. So the safeties, this is 0:10:46.080 --> 0:10:48.200 the first time they're gonna have these two guys in 0:10:48.240 --> 0:10:50.600 the lineup since twenty twenty one against US Jordan Poyer, 0:10:50.679 --> 0:10:53.400 Micah Hyde and then Taylor Rapp is the third safety. 0:10:53.400 --> 0:10:55.360 And my goodness to drop off in that third safety 0:10:55.400 --> 0:10:57.679 position for the Bills has been vast this year when 0:10:57.679 --> 0:11:00.480 they've not had these top two guys. But also like 0:11:01.679 --> 0:11:03.200 these guys are in their thirties now that's in It 0:11:03.240 --> 0:11:04.720 shows a little bit I think for both of them. 0:11:05.200 --> 0:11:08.400 Cornerback Rusull Douglas a ninety eight percent snap taker since 0:11:08.440 --> 0:11:10.719 the trade. He has been a boon for them. Man, 0:11:10.760 --> 0:11:12.480 I wish the Packers would not have done that for 0:11:12.520 --> 0:11:15.120 a third round draft pick. It wasn't even a third 0:11:15.160 --> 0:11:17.839 round pick. It was a three and five swap. Hey, 0:11:17.880 --> 0:11:21.720 thanks Green Bay. He had jerks. Christian Benford plays seventy 0:11:21.720 --> 0:11:24.320 five percent of the snaps, and then Dame Jackson plays 0:11:24.360 --> 0:11:26.120 forty two percent off the edge as well, and then 0:11:26.120 --> 0:11:28.880 their slot cornerback is the guy that almost never leaves 0:11:28.880 --> 0:11:31.120 the field. In fact, when he's healthy, he's played all 0:11:31.200 --> 0:11:33.360 of the snaps, but he plays eighty nine percent on 0:11:33.480 --> 0:11:37.080 balance in that slot position. On the interior, de Kwon 0:11:37.200 --> 0:11:39.480 Jones has played just thirteen percent of the snaps, but 0:11:39.520 --> 0:11:42.079 he is back after missing most of the season. At 0:11:42.080 --> 0:11:43.960 Oliver's played two thirds of the snap and he's having 0:11:44.000 --> 0:11:47.280 a breakout campaign. And Tim Settle is a nose tackle specialist. 0:11:47.320 --> 0:11:49.960 He plays thirty six percent of the snaps off the edge. 0:11:49.960 --> 0:11:52.840 Greg Russeau fifty four percent, and Leonard Floyd fifty three 0:11:52.880 --> 0:11:54.720 So those are their top edge rushers. And then they 0:11:54.800 --> 0:11:56.960 kind of have a nice little change up here because 0:11:57.040 --> 0:12:00.160 Russeau and Floyd are more speed bendy guys. And then 0:12:00.160 --> 0:12:03.240 Epanessa thirty six percent and shack loss and thirty percent 0:12:03.480 --> 0:12:06.719 are the heavy handed kind of base down run stuffing ends, 0:12:06.720 --> 0:12:10.320 if that makes sense. And then at linebacker, no Matt Milano, 0:12:10.400 --> 0:12:13.040 so Terrell Bernard has seen his workload increase in ninety 0:12:13.040 --> 0:12:16.000 two percent, with Tyrell Dotson playing fifty one percent. So 0:12:16.000 --> 0:12:18.839 there are some injuries here. Matt Milano, Trey White, Jordan 0:12:18.880 --> 0:12:21.760 Phillips are all down for the game. Taylor rap has 0:12:21.760 --> 0:12:23.120 had some injuries as well, so we'll see if he 0:12:23.160 --> 0:12:26.200 can play. But they're they're healthy, man, Like, They're as 0:12:26.240 --> 0:12:27.680 healthy as anybody is in the league right now. It 0:12:27.679 --> 0:12:30.920 feels like other personnel usage, the nickel package that was 0:12:31.040 --> 0:12:33.720 ninety eight percent used last year and back in Week 0:12:33.760 --> 0:12:35.880 four has changed, and that's probably because of the personnel 0:12:35.920 --> 0:12:39.680 issues they've had in terms of injuries, and also, like, 0:12:39.720 --> 0:12:42.000 here's why it's not really a change, because they've had 0:12:42.120 --> 0:12:45.160 all those injuries in particular Matt Milano, which along with 0:12:45.200 --> 0:12:47.600 Taron Johnson, is kind of the clue to the exclusive 0:12:47.679 --> 0:12:50.080 nickel defense they want to run. But as a result, 0:12:50.200 --> 0:12:53.160 they've just run more dime sixteen percent dime this year. 0:12:53.200 --> 0:12:55.679 So you're still at ninety six percent of the time 0:12:55.679 --> 0:12:58.360 when they are not in a base defense. Look, I 0:12:58.400 --> 0:13:00.560 think the better way to look at this first and 0:13:00.600 --> 0:13:03.559 second down they're a nickel eighty eight and eighty nine 0:13:03.640 --> 0:13:07.920 percent respectively, with forty one percent dying defense on third down, 0:13:08.800 --> 0:13:11.360 and that probably coincides with third and six plus right, 0:13:11.400 --> 0:13:13.679 like you're gonna be dying when it's third long, probably 0:13:13.679 --> 0:13:15.720 your nickel defense when it's third and short to medium. 0:13:15.880 --> 0:13:18.400 They're also in dime on eight percent of first downs 0:13:18.440 --> 0:13:20.520 and eight percent of second downs. So you can dictate 0:13:20.559 --> 0:13:22.120 some of this flow here, I think. And this is 0:13:22.160 --> 0:13:25.120 where I'm excited about the potential return of Robert Hunt 0:13:25.160 --> 0:13:28.599 and Raheem Moster and all you know, borrow coach McDaniel's 0:13:28.600 --> 0:13:31.640 crystal ball routine here, but about whether or not they return. 0:13:31.679 --> 0:13:33.719 But I keep thinking about the game of Buffalo last year, 0:13:33.720 --> 0:13:36.320 where we had all kinds of success running off the 0:13:36.400 --> 0:13:38.160 right side of the offensive line. And I think the 0:13:38.160 --> 0:13:40.880 addition of Austin Jackson, for that matter, is a much 0:13:41.240 --> 0:13:44.880 more deadly combination than Rob Hunt and Brandon Shell, which 0:13:44.880 --> 0:13:46.160 is what it was last year. Now, if you get 0:13:46.240 --> 0:13:49.480 Rob Hutt and Austin Jackson, saddle up boys. So between 0:13:49.520 --> 0:13:53.040 all of that and the inclusion of Devon a Chan, 0:13:53.120 --> 0:13:55.640 who really really stood out in that first game. I 0:13:55.679 --> 0:13:58.400 think that's one route to some offensive production. You could 0:13:58.400 --> 0:14:00.520 take a heavy dose of the run game against a 0:14:00.520 --> 0:14:03.439 defense that is just purely by the numbers of groupings 0:14:03.800 --> 0:14:07.960 inviting you to run the football, get that on early downs, 0:14:08.200 --> 0:14:11.200 staying out of third and long, staying consistent with it, 0:14:11.240 --> 0:14:14.360 and creating opportunities off the play pass game. There's a 0:14:14.440 --> 0:14:16.360 route to a good amount of points here for Miami, 0:14:16.360 --> 0:14:18.160 but they, of course, we'll have to execute for four 0:14:18.200 --> 0:14:21.800 quarters and hope the defense doesn't put you into press mode, 0:14:21.800 --> 0:14:24.680 which at this point they haven't proven they can not 0:14:24.840 --> 0:14:26.840 do that, So we'll see what happens with it. I 0:14:26.960 --> 0:14:30.640 expect us to come out and move the ball and 0:14:30.640 --> 0:14:33.160 score early, but how do we adjust, which I think 0:14:33.200 --> 0:14:36.680 has been the issue versus Baltimore, versus Tennessee versus Buffalo 0:14:36.800 --> 0:14:39.960 last time. Can we find second half offense? Can we 0:14:40.000 --> 0:14:43.400 score with the Bills if they go off again, You're 0:14:43.440 --> 0:14:45.200 gonna have to And that's where I get worried. Man, 0:14:45.240 --> 0:14:46.920 Can we hold their offense? Can we just get some 0:14:47.000 --> 0:14:49.520 Allen turnovers for once against us? Please? Because he puts 0:14:49.520 --> 0:14:51.960 them up against everybody else, can we create some of those. 0:14:52.120 --> 0:14:53.800 Let's go ahead and take a break before we come 0:14:53.800 --> 0:14:55.520 back and talk about the personnel and how it matches 0:14:55.520 --> 0:14:57.760 the scheme and also the defensive side of the football 0:14:57.760 --> 0:15:01.080 as well. All that next Draft Time podcast to Travis Wingfield, 0:15:01.240 --> 0:15:05.720 brought to you by Auto Nation. All right, so we 0:15:05.760 --> 0:15:08.320 talked about the scheme, but how does the personnel for 0:15:08.360 --> 0:15:11.000 the Buffalo Bills defense match that scheme? As we preview 0:15:11.040 --> 0:15:14.200 Dolphins and Bills on Sunday Night Football here, so they 0:15:14.200 --> 0:15:16.160 have Poyer and hide together for the first time since 0:15:16.240 --> 0:15:18.640 twenty one. That's hard to believe. And what does that mean. 0:15:18.840 --> 0:15:22.120 It means a defense that ranks third and split safety 0:15:22.120 --> 0:15:25.320 pre snap looks at fifty four percent, twenty eighth and 0:15:25.440 --> 0:15:29.240 single high at forty three percent. And what this allows 0:15:29.280 --> 0:15:32.840 them to do is to disguise where the help is, 0:15:32.920 --> 0:15:36.520 who's buzzing crossers, who's wheeling out and going up high 0:15:36.560 --> 0:15:38.120 when they go to those three high shells that you 0:15:38.200 --> 0:15:41.400 get from Cover three or Cover six, And ultimately they 0:15:41.400 --> 0:15:44.680 are successful at muddying the picture that buys their front 0:15:44.720 --> 0:15:48.800 four that extra half second to affect the quarterback. We 0:15:48.840 --> 0:15:51.080 saw it in the last game too, did not get 0:15:51.240 --> 0:15:53.400 moved off the spot and just shreded these guys up 0:15:53.440 --> 0:15:55.880 and layer in the game with more pressing, more passing situations, 0:15:56.480 --> 0:15:58.400 move them off the spot, cover up some of those 0:15:58.400 --> 0:16:01.360 looks with coverage looks. Beat the Dolphin banged up offensive 0:16:01.360 --> 0:16:03.000 line at that point with t Stead and Connor Williams 0:16:03.000 --> 0:16:04.760 out of the game, and get after him. It changes 0:16:04.760 --> 0:16:06.440 the course of the game. That's how they want to 0:16:06.480 --> 0:16:08.240 play it. And they're gonna span the hell out of 0:16:08.280 --> 0:16:09.720 the middle of the field, which seems to be what 0:16:09.760 --> 0:16:12.320 teams have done to us lately. Right, they'll zone turn 0:16:12.600 --> 0:16:14.640 it's all zone. They rank ninth and zone coverage at 0:16:14.680 --> 0:16:17.200 forty four percent twenty two percent. Man is twenty fourth 0:16:17.240 --> 0:16:19.400 the NFL, so one fifth at the time. They'll go 0:16:19.440 --> 0:16:21.080 to a man look and they mix it up. All 0:16:21.120 --> 0:16:23.640 defenses do that, you have to. The one element they 0:16:23.680 --> 0:16:26.840 won't have though, that is so critical is Matt Mulano 0:16:27.080 --> 0:16:30.160 and over the two years of his current Dolphins offensive makeup, 0:16:30.400 --> 0:16:33.040 the teams that have given to and this offense the 0:16:33.080 --> 0:16:36.040 most issues are the ones who have premiere off ball 0:16:36.120 --> 0:16:39.960 linebacker play. And my favorite analyst, Daniel Jeremiah on Twitter 0:16:40.000 --> 0:16:41.960 made a point about this the other day. The two 0:16:42.000 --> 0:16:44.040 current best teams in the NFL to me or San 0:16:44.080 --> 0:16:46.280 Francisco and Baltimore, which I think everyone agrees, is that 0:16:46.640 --> 0:16:49.840 invested in that position more than anybody else during an 0:16:49.840 --> 0:16:53.240 era where that position has almost been devalued. And they 0:16:53.360 --> 0:16:55.640 got Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw, and they got ro 0:16:55.760 --> 0:16:58.560 Qwan Smith and Patrick Queen. And aren't they happy they 0:16:58.640 --> 0:17:01.320 have that. We've also had this disc USh previously. The 0:17:01.360 --> 0:17:04.040 reason I prefer to a skill set any day of 0:17:04.080 --> 0:17:07.800 the week, but especially in twenty twenty three, is defensive 0:17:07.920 --> 0:17:10.639 willingness to play off and protect the deep portion of 0:17:10.680 --> 0:17:13.320 the field, which can eliminate some of the creativity and 0:17:13.359 --> 0:17:17.080 splash plays that modern quarterbacks are making, right, But rather, 0:17:17.640 --> 0:17:20.800 I'd rather be more efficient operating in this newly allotted 0:17:20.840 --> 0:17:23.720 space you have opposed to trying to big play hunt 0:17:23.720 --> 0:17:27.520 and force deep shots with your laser rocket arm, but 0:17:27.920 --> 0:17:31.439 that the one way you can do both is with 0:17:31.600 --> 0:17:35.720 incredibly rangy, instinctive, great middle linebacker play. Right. The Bills 0:17:35.800 --> 0:17:38.520 had that in Milano, but also second year linebacker Terrell 0:17:38.560 --> 0:17:40.879 Bernard has sort of stepped up into that role and 0:17:40.920 --> 0:17:44.040 become a playmaker who's really really clicked in that role. 0:17:44.320 --> 0:17:46.560 So to me, their four best players are middle of 0:17:46.600 --> 0:17:48.800 the field guys and in the back seven, in particular 0:17:48.840 --> 0:17:53.000 Bernard poyer Hyde and Tarin Johnson. They also return Daiquon 0:17:53.119 --> 0:17:56.240 Jones to rejoin at Oliver inside. So it's a defense 0:17:56.280 --> 0:17:58.959 that the teeth right down the middle is where they 0:17:58.960 --> 0:18:02.199 are strongest. So for Miami, how do you adjust? We 0:18:02.240 --> 0:18:04.439 saw a lot of success in the middle field passing 0:18:04.480 --> 0:18:06.680 game versus the Ravens last week, up and down the 0:18:06.720 --> 0:18:09.760 field the whole first half right one punt, a one 0:18:09.800 --> 0:18:11.800 handed full sprint pick from a two hundred and fifty 0:18:11.800 --> 0:18:14.200 pound player, and a drop from the best wide receiver 0:18:14.200 --> 0:18:18.159 of the National Football League takes It's at least a 0:18:18.200 --> 0:18:20.399 seven point swing right, four for the touchdown, three for 0:18:20.400 --> 0:18:22.920 a potential field goal. If Smith does not make that pick, 0:18:22.960 --> 0:18:25.080 you probably have a chance to be leading at halftime. 0:18:25.400 --> 0:18:27.760 If you don't drop a touchdown and you don't get 0:18:27.800 --> 0:18:31.440 an all world pick from a linebacker. I thought the 0:18:31.520 --> 0:18:34.320 Ravens put more bodies inside and you got that second 0:18:34.320 --> 0:18:36.640 I int as a result, So I have a hard 0:18:36.680 --> 0:18:40.560 time imagining Buffalo doing anything different than that. So the 0:18:40.640 --> 0:18:45.800 question becomes, how do you a beat that? And b 0:18:46.440 --> 0:18:48.800 get them out of it. Well. We saw Raheem Mostert 0:18:48.880 --> 0:18:51.240 last year go crazy in the game up there. We 0:18:51.280 --> 0:18:54.000 saw Devon a Chan go crazy in the game up 0:18:54.040 --> 0:18:56.840 there this year. In the October first game, we had 0:18:56.840 --> 0:18:59.680