1 00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:19,599 Speaker 1: Um, so we were. It was it was just the 2 00:00:19,680 --> 00:00:22,360 Speaker 1: same job. We were still just in charge of the 3 00:00:23,239 --> 00:00:25,160 Speaker 1: US stock market at the time. It was the team 4 00:00:25,160 --> 00:00:30,720 Speaker 1: water for stockson. All right, everyone, we're here to uh 5 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:36,000 Speaker 1: record the look back at our favorite stories of episode 6 00:00:36,640 --> 00:00:40,400 Speaker 1: of Odd Lots. I'm Joe Wisn'thal, managing editor at Bloomberg Markets, 7 00:00:40,479 --> 00:00:43,600 Speaker 1: and I'm Chasey Alloway, Executive editor of Bloomberg Markets. And 8 00:00:43,680 --> 00:00:48,360 Speaker 1: We've assembled a fantastic team of Bloomberg News people, reporters 9 00:00:48,360 --> 00:00:51,080 Speaker 1: and editors to talk about what were the great market 10 00:00:51,200 --> 00:00:56,840 Speaker 1: stories of Could you all just introduce yourselves real quickly, mom. 11 00:00:56,920 --> 00:00:59,680 Speaker 1: Chris Nacci, the managing editor for Stocks at Bloomberg News. 12 00:01:00,280 --> 00:01:03,880 Speaker 1: Matthew Bosle I covered the Federal Reserve. I am Max Gabilson, 13 00:01:04,040 --> 00:01:07,240 Speaker 1: Bloombews reporter. I Met Hammond, I covered deals for Bloomberg. 14 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:11,160 Speaker 1: I'm Matt Lvian. I'm a columnist for Bloomberg View. Let's 15 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:13,080 Speaker 1: get going. We'll start with you, Chris and a g. 16 00:01:13,360 --> 00:01:16,319 Speaker 1: You cover stocks. What do you have for us? Speaking 17 00:01:16,440 --> 00:01:19,760 Speaker 1: as the managing editor for stocks at Bloomberg and as 18 00:01:19,880 --> 00:01:24,360 Speaker 1: sort of a connoisseur of armageddon scenarios. Um, I I 19 00:01:24,880 --> 00:01:27,080 Speaker 1: sort of have to say that the August, the August 20 00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:30,559 Speaker 1: late August so off in the stock market's my favorite story. 21 00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:33,920 Speaker 1: It had it had everything. It had everything from UM. 22 00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:36,000 Speaker 1: This is the big one in the bond market too. 23 00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:38,880 Speaker 1: This is the big one in the volatility market. It 24 00:01:38,920 --> 00:01:42,360 Speaker 1: had sort of a flash crash. It had um humans 25 00:01:42,440 --> 00:01:44,160 Speaker 1: or the problem humans on the floor of the nice 26 00:01:44,200 --> 00:01:47,120 Speaker 1: year of the problem. It had China. Uh, it had 27 00:01:47,200 --> 00:01:49,440 Speaker 1: the dollar. It had pretty much everything that could be 28 00:01:49,480 --> 00:01:52,880 Speaker 1: pulled into a thesis that this is the end of 29 00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:55,400 Speaker 1: the world or this is two thousand and eight. And 30 00:01:55,800 --> 00:01:58,560 Speaker 1: as a connoisseur of these things, UM, one thing that 31 00:01:58,600 --> 00:02:00,880 Speaker 1: you noticed over the last five years is generally they 32 00:02:00,880 --> 00:02:04,160 Speaker 1: haven't come true. So I just thought, you know, everyone 33 00:02:04,160 --> 00:02:06,360 Speaker 1: who was hoping for the end of the world let 34 00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:10,040 Speaker 1: all of their guns fly on roughly August. There was 35 00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:11,800 Speaker 1: quite a sell off. It was painful, it was not 36 00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:14,840 Speaker 1: pleasant for anyone in the market. And then um, two 37 00:02:14,960 --> 00:02:18,320 Speaker 1: or three months later, we're merrily on our way, and uh, 38 00:02:18,440 --> 00:02:20,520 Speaker 1: it's just looking like, you know, just another one of 39 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:23,320 Speaker 1: these ripples. I mean not this is clearly the biggest 40 00:02:23,400 --> 00:02:26,120 Speaker 1: of them all, but it's pretty much repaired at this point. 41 00:02:26,160 --> 00:02:28,440 Speaker 1: I just think it's Uh, the story of the market 42 00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:32,920 Speaker 1: since of how healthy corrections are always the corrections that 43 00:02:32,960 --> 00:02:35,560 Speaker 1: have stopped, right, that there's that right, as long as 44 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:37,959 Speaker 1: they don't turn into two thousand and eight, everyone's happy 45 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:39,800 Speaker 1: to have them. I mean, I think there's there's something 46 00:02:39,800 --> 00:02:42,919 Speaker 1: to be stipping that the difference what's normalcy in the market. 47 00:02:42,960 --> 00:02:45,480 Speaker 1: I mean, you go to two and a half years 48 00:02:45,520 --> 00:02:49,560 Speaker 1: with the vix at like fifteen, that very sound arguments 49 00:02:49,560 --> 00:02:51,480 Speaker 1: could be made that that's the weird thing, and and 50 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:54,120 Speaker 1: things like the end of August that that's kind of 51 00:02:54,160 --> 00:02:56,680 Speaker 1: what's supposed to happen. I think people are aware of 52 00:02:56,720 --> 00:02:58,880 Speaker 1: this fact. I mean again, right, you're absolutely right as 53 00:02:58,919 --> 00:03:01,320 Speaker 1: long as it starts around twelve twelve percent or so, 54 00:03:01,639 --> 00:03:03,840 Speaker 1: they're they're willing to say that's what's supposed to happen. 55 00:03:04,200 --> 00:03:07,079 Speaker 1: I remember like that morning the Dell opened down like 56 00:03:07,120 --> 00:03:09,640 Speaker 1: about a thousand points and then it was like a 57 00:03:09,680 --> 00:03:11,840 Speaker 1: really like within twenty minutes. It was like sure at 58 00:03:11,880 --> 00:03:14,120 Speaker 1: one point it was like down one percent, and then 59 00:03:14,200 --> 00:03:16,560 Speaker 1: like it started selling. But that was just like an 60 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:19,239 Speaker 1: absolutely unbelievable morning. Yeah, there's no doubt that ranks in 61 00:03:19,280 --> 00:03:22,320 Speaker 1: the top couple that like what's your favorite day? Of 62 00:03:22,320 --> 00:03:24,280 Speaker 1: all time, not just this year. Did you have another 63 00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:26,280 Speaker 1: day that you've loved That would be the flash crash, 64 00:03:26,320 --> 00:03:28,200 Speaker 1: no question about it in Mark Mark May of two 65 00:03:28,200 --> 00:03:29,960 Speaker 1: thousand town. I mean, that was the weirdest thing. And 66 00:03:29,960 --> 00:03:31,639 Speaker 1: but you know, that was the first one of these things, 67 00:03:31,639 --> 00:03:34,880 Speaker 1: that was the first really machine fermented just freak out 68 00:03:34,880 --> 00:03:36,920 Speaker 1: in the stock market that nobody knew anything, had any 69 00:03:36,960 --> 00:03:39,280 Speaker 1: idea of what was going on. Now now we've seen 70 00:03:39,280 --> 00:03:40,800 Speaker 1: flash crashes, and I think that's part of the problem 71 00:03:40,840 --> 00:03:43,480 Speaker 1: that we see any decline, any rapid decline, we say 72 00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:47,120 Speaker 1: that's a flash crash, that's definitely something broken, very easily 73 00:03:47,240 --> 00:03:49,360 Speaker 1: might not be something broken. Actually have to say in 74 00:03:49,400 --> 00:03:52,720 Speaker 1: retrospect that again, it looks like sort of what's supposed 75 00:03:52,720 --> 00:03:54,280 Speaker 1: to happen in the market every once in a while, 76 00:03:54,360 --> 00:03:57,320 Speaker 1: maybe a little faster. But thanks Chris. All right, we're 77 00:03:57,360 --> 00:04:00,360 Speaker 1: here at the great Max Abelson. Max, what is your 78 00:04:00,440 --> 00:04:04,400 Speaker 1: favorite story? I showed my favorite story of the year 79 00:04:04,480 --> 00:04:07,640 Speaker 1: was an actual written story, and I decided not to 80 00:04:07,640 --> 00:04:09,680 Speaker 1: pick one from Bloomberg, just so no one could accuse 81 00:04:09,720 --> 00:04:12,320 Speaker 1: me of sucking up to my wonderful colleagues. Um, you know, 82 00:04:12,360 --> 00:04:15,000 Speaker 1: tens fifteen was a long year. And way back in 83 00:04:15,000 --> 00:04:17,160 Speaker 1: in uh in May of two thousand, it seems like 84 00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:20,719 Speaker 1: a long time ago. Ross Olbricht was sentenced to prison 85 00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:24,360 Speaker 1: sentence to life and Wired story The Rise and Fall 86 00:04:24,400 --> 00:04:26,400 Speaker 1: of the Silk Road. A lot of stories pretend to 87 00:04:26,400 --> 00:04:29,280 Speaker 1: be rise and falls. This one was so vast that 88 00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:32,320 Speaker 1: the rise was part one and the fallst part two. 89 00:04:32,360 --> 00:04:34,880 Speaker 1: What made the story so great, Well, for one thing, 90 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:37,600 Speaker 1: it was exciting, remember, yeah, I do. It was Josh 91 00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:41,920 Speaker 1: barman Um and Toomer Toner Hanukah. And incidentally, I think 92 00:04:41,920 --> 00:04:44,039 Speaker 1: it also had additional reporting from a New York Times reporter. 93 00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:46,000 Speaker 1: I don't know, I don't know how that worked. But 94 00:04:46,320 --> 00:04:49,040 Speaker 1: have you guys ever read the Elvis Presley biography by 95 00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:52,200 Speaker 1: Peter Grolnick Um? The first book is A rise in 96 00:04:52,240 --> 00:04:54,000 Speaker 1: the second books of all I highly recommend that's one 97 00:04:54,000 --> 00:04:56,200 Speaker 1: of my favorite books of all time. Beautiful book. But 98 00:04:56,240 --> 00:04:59,000 Speaker 1: Elvis's rise was so dramatic and his fall was so sad, 99 00:04:59,160 --> 00:05:01,120 Speaker 1: and the same thing goes for Salt Road. All right, 100 00:05:01,240 --> 00:05:03,640 Speaker 1: We're going to move to another area of the market 101 00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:06,120 Speaker 1: where there's been lots of activity this year, which is 102 00:05:06,200 --> 00:05:10,480 Speaker 1: in mergers and acquisitions. Um. Yes, M and A has 103 00:05:10,480 --> 00:05:13,120 Speaker 1: been has been crazy. This year actually the busiest year ever. 104 00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:15,720 Speaker 1: I think if you if you run our numbers, it's 105 00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:18,240 Speaker 1: like four point one or four point three trillion, depending 106 00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:20,440 Speaker 1: on which deals you include exclude, which either way as 107 00:05:20,440 --> 00:05:24,760 Speaker 1: a record high. So it's kept everyone very busy, us included. 108 00:05:25,520 --> 00:05:29,240 Speaker 1: So I supposed to have to say my favorite story, Yeah, 109 00:05:29,279 --> 00:05:31,680 Speaker 1: what there is kind of one deal, but I suppose 110 00:05:31,720 --> 00:05:34,719 Speaker 1: I would say more it's like one company. So I know, 111 00:05:34,760 --> 00:05:36,320 Speaker 1: we as M and A Reports are supposed to be 112 00:05:36,400 --> 00:05:40,480 Speaker 1: kind of cheerleaders for all activity and or particularly good emine. 113 00:05:40,600 --> 00:05:42,560 Speaker 1: But my favorite deal story of the year is Valiant. 114 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:45,280 Speaker 1: Kind of kind of feeling that you said what you 115 00:05:45,320 --> 00:05:47,080 Speaker 1: said it was not a deal but a company. I 116 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:49,360 Speaker 1: was like, it's goind of, it's got to be Valiant, right, So, 117 00:05:49,360 --> 00:05:54,560 Speaker 1: so everything they've touched this year has provided just glorious 118 00:05:54,560 --> 00:05:57,200 Speaker 1: opportunity to kind of write fun stories. So, you know, 119 00:05:57,279 --> 00:05:59,640 Speaker 1: from them buying a female viag drug for a billion dollars, 120 00:05:59,680 --> 00:06:01,400 Speaker 1: which was like way more than anyone thought it was 121 00:06:01,400 --> 00:06:04,640 Speaker 1: worth God's gift to headline writers, right exactly, and then 122 00:06:04,680 --> 00:06:07,480 Speaker 1: they brought some gastro and testinal stuff, which they also 123 00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:10,160 Speaker 1: seem to screw up because they overpaid because they cornered 124 00:06:10,200 --> 00:06:12,640 Speaker 1: themselves on the debt. And then just the best bit 125 00:06:12,640 --> 00:06:14,240 Speaker 1: of the whole thing was when the wheels came off 126 00:06:14,520 --> 00:06:17,160 Speaker 1: a couple of months ago, when obviously the sitution research 127 00:06:17,240 --> 00:06:21,080 Speaker 1: piece came out, the short sending research shares just got abolished. 128 00:06:21,160 --> 00:06:22,960 Speaker 1: Can you, for the people that don't pay as much 129 00:06:23,000 --> 00:06:26,520 Speaker 1: attention to this as we do, can you give like 130 00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:30,080 Speaker 1: a thirty second description of what Valuant isn't why strategy 131 00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:32,840 Speaker 1: is so controversial? Yeah? So, Valiant essentially is is a 132 00:06:32,960 --> 00:06:36,000 Speaker 1: sort of classic roll up play. It It does deal 133 00:06:36,040 --> 00:06:38,159 Speaker 1: after deal after deal to kind of grow its to 134 00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:40,359 Speaker 1: grow it to earnings, and has made a huge amount 135 00:06:40,360 --> 00:06:42,279 Speaker 1: of money for its shareholders. The problem is, and the 136 00:06:42,320 --> 00:06:45,520 Speaker 1: reason it's so detested in the pharmaceutical world, is it 137 00:06:45,640 --> 00:06:48,159 Speaker 1: relies on buying companies that have quite a lot of 138 00:06:48,160 --> 00:06:51,480 Speaker 1: research and development and just removing that completely, so we'll 139 00:06:51,480 --> 00:06:52,920 Speaker 1: get rid of all of the R and D kind 140 00:06:52,920 --> 00:06:55,520 Speaker 1: of day one and then just run off the existing 141 00:06:55,520 --> 00:06:58,440 Speaker 1: portfolio of drugs that that company had and sort of 142 00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:00,880 Speaker 1: almost create like an annuity type business. Now in Farmer, 143 00:07:00,960 --> 00:07:02,640 Speaker 1: this is seen as an appalling thing to do because 144 00:07:02,680 --> 00:07:05,000 Speaker 1: obviously people need to be investing all the time in 145 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:07,200 Speaker 1: R and D to actually keep new drugs coming through 146 00:07:07,240 --> 00:07:09,680 Speaker 1: the system and to treat the diseases and to improve 147 00:07:10,600 --> 00:07:14,320 Speaker 1: treatments for existing diseases. So Valiant is sort of the 148 00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:19,080 Speaker 1: bad boy of Farmers replaced. I know, I was just 149 00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:21,640 Speaker 1: thinking they've been replaced slightly by Cheering recently. But they 150 00:07:21,640 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 1: were bigger and and in some ways badder bad boy, 151 00:07:25,280 --> 00:07:28,320 Speaker 1: and it was just great. The wheels came off, the 152 00:07:28,320 --> 00:07:31,040 Speaker 1: shares were destroyed. You had Mike Pierson, who's the chief 153 00:07:31,040 --> 00:07:33,520 Speaker 1: execut Valiant and very sort of you know, had been 154 00:07:33,600 --> 00:07:35,280 Speaker 1: very upbeat the whole time he sort of was being 155 00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:38,560 Speaker 1: wheeled out. He looked kind of like a penguin that 156 00:07:38,600 --> 00:07:40,840 Speaker 1: had been put down in the desert, sort of sweating 157 00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:42,840 Speaker 1: profusely and bulging in his suits. And then he had 158 00:07:42,840 --> 00:07:45,040 Speaker 1: Bill Ackman. Believe it or not, as did you ever 159 00:07:45,120 --> 00:07:48,760 Speaker 1: get that into a story or a headline? I think 160 00:07:48,760 --> 00:07:51,720 Speaker 1: that would have been and I think the conversations with 161 00:07:51,760 --> 00:07:54,720 Speaker 1: the PRS would have been too brutal afterwards, coming from 162 00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:57,160 Speaker 1: like a stark perspective. Valiant was also a huge story, 163 00:07:57,200 --> 00:07:59,760 Speaker 1: and there was this whole issue of like these independent 164 00:08:00,200 --> 00:08:04,280 Speaker 1: twitters and researchers and bloggers sort of driving the story 165 00:08:04,360 --> 00:08:07,440 Speaker 1: right right. I think it's it's the best example that 166 00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:09,960 Speaker 1: yet of that that kind of uh. I don't want 167 00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:11,840 Speaker 1: to say raid, but it's certainly that all of the 168 00:08:11,880 --> 00:08:14,000 Speaker 1: tools that are available to people who wanted stocks to 169 00:08:14,000 --> 00:08:16,600 Speaker 1: go down, we're we're in full display during that whole thing, 170 00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:19,320 Speaker 1: adding to the I mean, clearly adding to the volatility. 171 00:08:19,320 --> 00:08:22,320 Speaker 1: It's also interesting the amount of purchase those things got 172 00:08:22,400 --> 00:08:24,520 Speaker 1: this time. I mean that's going on all the time 173 00:08:24,560 --> 00:08:27,920 Speaker 1: in the stock market. Crazed and less crazed people are 174 00:08:27,960 --> 00:08:30,800 Speaker 1: saying bad things about stocks at the time. With Valiant, 175 00:08:30,920 --> 00:08:33,160 Speaker 1: they just found their timing. I mean, they just nailed it. 176 00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:35,000 Speaker 1: So I know, I said I wasn't gonna choose a 177 00:08:35,040 --> 00:08:37,320 Speaker 1: favorite story, but since we're on the topic of Valiant, 178 00:08:37,800 --> 00:08:39,400 Speaker 1: one of the stories I really liked this year was 179 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:41,520 Speaker 1: by Bloomberg News, and it was about how all the 180 00:08:41,520 --> 00:08:45,360 Speaker 1: analysts had by ratings on Valiant for years and years 181 00:08:45,440 --> 00:08:48,800 Speaker 1: and years, and we're completely caught offside. I want to 182 00:08:48,840 --> 00:08:51,240 Speaker 1: bring in a mad Bosler into it. One of the 183 00:08:51,440 --> 00:08:56,000 Speaker 1: aspects of the Valiant story, arguably that enabled them to 184 00:08:56,080 --> 00:08:59,079 Speaker 1: do this huge roll up strategy, has been cheap money, 185 00:08:59,280 --> 00:09:03,320 Speaker 1: and Matt, you cover the FED or low interest rates, 186 00:09:03,400 --> 00:09:05,320 Speaker 1: lots of interest in buying debt, you cover the FED. 187 00:09:05,400 --> 00:09:08,320 Speaker 1: Until obviously that was a huge story. But what was 188 00:09:08,360 --> 00:09:11,600 Speaker 1: your favorite story this year? Yeah, well, actually along those lines, 189 00:09:11,800 --> 00:09:15,600 Speaker 1: it's sort of the how money has been becoming tighter 190 00:09:15,640 --> 00:09:17,440 Speaker 1: this year that I found the most interesting, so to 191 00:09:17,559 --> 00:09:20,600 Speaker 1: like sort of bring it back to the August stock 192 00:09:20,640 --> 00:09:23,440 Speaker 1: market sell off um and kind of put the FED 193 00:09:23,480 --> 00:09:26,120 Speaker 1: angle on it. It's it's interesting. That was actually my 194 00:09:26,120 --> 00:09:30,280 Speaker 1: favorite story too, because that was a assessment date for 195 00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:33,720 Speaker 1: one of these big new post crisis banking regulations that 196 00:09:33,840 --> 00:09:36,400 Speaker 1: is just being phased in now, even though these things 197 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:39,200 Speaker 1: have been in the works in Bossel, Switzerland for years. 198 00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:45,280 Speaker 1: And so August July septe um quarter in which we 199 00:09:45,320 --> 00:09:48,720 Speaker 1: also saw like some stock market turmoil, and then of 200 00:09:48,760 --> 00:09:51,960 Speaker 1: course this month we're seeing um all of these regulations 201 00:09:52,000 --> 00:09:54,800 Speaker 1: coming in forcing banks to sort of shrink their balance 202 00:09:54,800 --> 00:09:58,880 Speaker 1: sheets and you know, just liquidity sort of being sucked 203 00:09:58,880 --> 00:10:01,040 Speaker 1: out of the system this year, and we've been sort 204 00:10:01,040 --> 00:10:03,640 Speaker 1: of waiting for this, but these regulations haven't really come 205 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:06,120 Speaker 1: into effect until the second half of this year. So 206 00:10:06,160 --> 00:10:10,800 Speaker 1: I found it very interesting that these these certain dates 207 00:10:10,840 --> 00:10:13,840 Speaker 1: like August, you know, seems to be a coincidence that 208 00:10:14,080 --> 00:10:16,400 Speaker 1: there was this g SIB capital surcharge, we had the 209 00:10:16,400 --> 00:10:18,480 Speaker 1: biggest stock market sell off. You know. It is the 210 00:10:18,559 --> 00:10:21,400 Speaker 1: low and the dollar you want exchange rate and all 211 00:10:21,440 --> 00:10:23,360 Speaker 1: of this stuff just sort of points to like less 212 00:10:23,360 --> 00:10:26,960 Speaker 1: liquidity and in not only you know, money markets, which 213 00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:29,440 Speaker 1: we've all been paying attention to very closely, right from 214 00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:32,320 Speaker 1: a FED FED bet but also in in risk assets 215 00:10:32,320 --> 00:10:34,520 Speaker 1: and even the stock market. So do you think that 216 00:10:34,640 --> 00:10:37,560 Speaker 1: sort of volatility and low levels of liquidity is the 217 00:10:37,600 --> 00:10:40,600 Speaker 1: new normal in markets? It does kind of seem that way. Yeah. 218 00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:42,600 Speaker 1: I mean it's only been getting worse and worse this year, 219 00:10:42,600 --> 00:10:45,280 Speaker 1: and there's no real sign from you know, the FED 220 00:10:45,400 --> 00:10:49,840 Speaker 1: or the regulators that they would like to step in 221 00:10:49,880 --> 00:10:51,640 Speaker 1: and help out. Because this was kind of the whole 222 00:10:51,640 --> 00:10:54,600 Speaker 1: point all along, right, was to make the markets less risky, 223 00:10:54,600 --> 00:10:56,079 Speaker 1: and now we're sort of seeing the side effects of 224 00:10:57,000 --> 00:10:59,760 Speaker 1: because the market less risky, definitely, like the banks you know, 225 00:10:59,800 --> 00:11:02,520 Speaker 1: are not doing as much intermediation and so I guess 226 00:11:02,520 --> 00:11:04,280 Speaker 1: they you know, they can't get hurt. But you know, 227 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:07,400 Speaker 1: with less intermediation comes less equity and markets and it's 228 00:11:07,480 --> 00:11:10,599 Speaker 1: kind of becoming almost these mini shocks that are emanating 229 00:11:10,600 --> 00:11:13,080 Speaker 1: to the real economy once a quarter, and that's something 230 00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:14,400 Speaker 1: the FED has had to deal with. You know, we 231 00:11:14,440 --> 00:11:17,079 Speaker 1: saw them take a pass on tightening in September, and 232 00:11:17,559 --> 00:11:20,200 Speaker 1: it was kind of largely because of that market volatility 233 00:11:20,280 --> 00:11:22,760 Speaker 1: would seem just before in August. So I have also 234 00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:25,760 Speaker 1: remembered another one of my favorite stories, which was the 235 00:11:25,800 --> 00:11:29,959 Speaker 1: third avenue of fund closure, which seems to be the tradeoff, 236 00:11:30,080 --> 00:11:32,240 Speaker 1: right of having a bunch of risk moved out of 237 00:11:32,360 --> 00:11:35,280 Speaker 1: banks and onto the by side, which means when things 238 00:11:35,280 --> 00:11:39,559 Speaker 1: go pear shaped, investors get the short end of the stick, right, Yeah, exactly. 239 00:11:39,600 --> 00:11:42,840 Speaker 1: And you know we're not to the look ahead to yet, 240 00:11:42,840 --> 00:11:44,600 Speaker 1: but you know, that's that's one of these things that's 241 00:11:44,600 --> 00:11:47,240 Speaker 1: been interesting on the FED beat. Now we're all talking about, Okay, 242 00:11:47,440 --> 00:11:49,800 Speaker 1: the next FED move is going to be contingent upon 243 00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:53,079 Speaker 1: actual progress and on inflation and not just confidence in 244 00:11:53,120 --> 00:11:56,320 Speaker 1: their inflation forecast. But if the high yield credit markets 245 00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:59,160 Speaker 1: keep blowing up, then none of that's really gonna matter anyway. Probably, 246 00:11:59,240 --> 00:12:03,040 Speaker 1: So att Levin, you write a lot about finance and 247 00:12:03,080 --> 00:12:05,280 Speaker 1: markets and all sorts of things. What was your favorite 248 00:12:05,280 --> 00:12:07,600 Speaker 1: story of two thousand and fifteen, Tracy, I think you 249 00:12:07,640 --> 00:12:10,960 Speaker 1: know what my favorite story in fifteen was. Um. I 250 00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:12,640 Speaker 1: read a lot about finance, but I read a lot 251 00:12:12,640 --> 00:12:15,520 Speaker 1: about bond market liquidity, and I think my favorite story 252 00:12:15,600 --> 00:12:18,480 Speaker 1: might be the story of bond market liquidity. You coined 253 00:12:18,520 --> 00:12:22,480 Speaker 1: an acronym, right, Uh, Well, it's a it's not really pronounceable. 254 00:12:22,480 --> 00:12:25,240 Speaker 1: I sometimes think Poppa mole. But yes, people are worried 255 00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:28,240 Speaker 1: about bond market liquidity has appeared in my uh in 256 00:12:28,280 --> 00:12:31,600 Speaker 1: my morning newsletter for you know, hundred and fifty times 257 00:12:31,640 --> 00:12:33,640 Speaker 1: in a row, give or take. So what is bond 258 00:12:33,679 --> 00:12:36,440 Speaker 1: market liquidity and why did you like this story so much? So? 259 00:12:36,520 --> 00:12:39,600 Speaker 1: Bond market liquidity is just like the ability to buy 260 00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:41,959 Speaker 1: yoursel bonds. So the story goes that it used to 261 00:12:42,000 --> 00:12:45,880 Speaker 1: be that bonds traded by calling up dealers. You call 262 00:12:45,960 --> 00:12:47,439 Speaker 1: up a bank and you if you want to buy 263 00:12:47,440 --> 00:12:49,800 Speaker 1: a bond, you buy the bond from a bank. When 264 00:12:49,800 --> 00:12:51,160 Speaker 1: I sell a bond, you sell it to the bank. 265 00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:53,800 Speaker 1: The bank kind of stood in the way in between everything, 266 00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:56,440 Speaker 1: and they kept big inventories of bonds and the worrying. 267 00:12:56,480 --> 00:12:58,440 Speaker 1: The last like a couple of years, I would say, 268 00:12:58,679 --> 00:13:01,240 Speaker 1: is that with the Volk a rule with capital regulation, 269 00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:03,760 Speaker 1: banks are no longer as much in that business as 270 00:13:03,800 --> 00:13:07,480 Speaker 1: they used to be. And uh, and so it's become 271 00:13:07,520 --> 00:13:11,960 Speaker 1: harder to buy and sell bonds. That's a thing, you know, 272 00:13:11,960 --> 00:13:14,560 Speaker 1: I think that people worry about. But when it becomes 273 00:13:14,600 --> 00:13:17,040 Speaker 1: more interesting and more worrying is that you combine that 274 00:13:17,120 --> 00:13:20,240 Speaker 1: with a lot more bonds are held by mutual funds 275 00:13:20,280 --> 00:13:24,280 Speaker 1: than used to be. And there's this worry that mutual funds, 276 00:13:24,760 --> 00:13:27,720 Speaker 1: because they let investors take their money out anytime they want, 277 00:13:28,400 --> 00:13:30,720 Speaker 1: investors might take a lot of money out the mutual 278 00:13:30,720 --> 00:13:32,880 Speaker 1: funds that olden bonds have to sell all these bonds 279 00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:35,200 Speaker 1: to meet those redemptions. They can't do it. It's become 280 00:13:35,200 --> 00:13:38,040 Speaker 1: harder to sell bonds and it's going to lead to 281 00:13:38,040 --> 00:13:40,000 Speaker 1: a big downward spiral and a disaster. So this has 282 00:13:40,040 --> 00:13:43,240 Speaker 1: been predicted for a year or two. So if I may, 283 00:13:43,480 --> 00:13:46,640 Speaker 1: the weirdest thing about this story, which is also one 284 00:13:46,679 --> 00:13:48,960 Speaker 1: of my favorite stories, obviously, but the weirdest thing is 285 00:13:48,960 --> 00:13:51,679 Speaker 1: that people have been talking about it for years and 286 00:13:51,720 --> 00:13:54,840 Speaker 1: it's like this major worry that's hung over the market, 287 00:13:55,440 --> 00:13:57,360 Speaker 1: and it seems to be the things that people don't 288 00:13:57,360 --> 00:14:00,880 Speaker 1: think about that usually turn out to be problematic, right, Yeah, 289 00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:02,880 Speaker 1: I mean that's one of the reasons my favorite story 290 00:14:02,920 --> 00:14:08,040 Speaker 1: is it's a media predicted, right, uh, widely predicted, media 291 00:14:08,160 --> 00:14:11,760 Speaker 1: endorsed potential future crisis, right, And you don't see a 292 00:14:11,760 --> 00:14:15,000 Speaker 1: lot of that. And you know, my bias is sort 293 00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:18,360 Speaker 1: of similar to yours. That, like, the the the odds 294 00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:21,000 Speaker 1: of the thing that everyone predicts being a crisis actually 295 00:14:21,040 --> 00:14:24,040 Speaker 1: being a crisis are very low, and so you have, like, 296 00:14:24,080 --> 00:14:26,040 Speaker 1: you know, the bond market liquidity story has gone through 297 00:14:26,040 --> 00:14:29,560 Speaker 1: a couple of tests, right, Like, there's just like two 298 00:14:29,600 --> 00:14:32,800 Speaker 1: weeks ago, the Third Avenue focused credit fund did the 299 00:14:32,840 --> 00:14:35,200 Speaker 1: thing everyone predicted, right, Like, had a lot of redemptions, 300 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:37,640 Speaker 1: it couldn't sell bonds fast enough, it had to close down. 301 00:14:37,880 --> 00:14:41,080 Speaker 1: It was a big disaster for them, and it didn't 302 00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:43,400 Speaker 1: you know, like people worried about it, but it doesn't 303 00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:45,640 Speaker 1: seem to have had a huge kind of you know, 304 00:14:45,720 --> 00:14:47,840 Speaker 1: contagion on the rest of the market, although it's you know, 305 00:14:47,880 --> 00:14:50,520 Speaker 1: it's probably a little story, yeah right, it's a little 306 00:14:50,520 --> 00:14:53,480 Speaker 1: really tell I just want to jump in here. I 307 00:14:53,480 --> 00:14:56,040 Speaker 1: didn't really have anything prepared for my favorite story of 308 00:14:56,080 --> 00:14:58,800 Speaker 1: the year, but I you know, I do feel a 309 00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:01,640 Speaker 1: little twinge of sadness us that I think we may have, 310 00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:06,840 Speaker 1: at least for this foreseeable period, buried the whole gregsit 311 00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:10,640 Speaker 1: story and put that behind us for a while, because 312 00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:13,600 Speaker 1: I've been covering the drama of whether Greece was going 313 00:15:13,640 --> 00:15:17,360 Speaker 1: to leave the Eurozone. Bass I do like trips to Athens, 314 00:15:17,400 --> 00:15:21,800 Speaker 1: but I remember very vividly November two thousand nine, no sorry, 315 00:15:21,880 --> 00:15:25,080 Speaker 1: Thanksgiving two thousand nine was the day that the Dubai 316 00:15:25,120 --> 00:15:28,000 Speaker 1: World bankruptcy announced, and everyone was like, who's next on 317 00:15:28,040 --> 00:15:30,920 Speaker 1: the sovereign debt space? And I read an article and 318 00:15:30,920 --> 00:15:32,400 Speaker 1: it was talking about Greece, and that was like the 319 00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:34,360 Speaker 1: first day that I really like paid attention to the 320 00:15:34,400 --> 00:15:37,320 Speaker 1: Greece story, and I really think like it may come 321 00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:39,680 Speaker 1: back at some point, but it felt like this was 322 00:15:39,800 --> 00:15:42,960 Speaker 1: the year that that was kind of put behind us. 323 00:15:43,560 --> 00:15:47,080 Speaker 1: And so I'm a little a little mixed emotions. Where 324 00:15:47,120 --> 00:15:51,640 Speaker 1: are the Greg's odds right now? Especially cities cities right 325 00:15:51,680 --> 00:15:57,240 Speaker 1: because City City, for those who don't know, has basically 326 00:15:57,720 --> 00:16:00,280 Speaker 1: frankly been on the wrong side of this cause several 327 00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:04,720 Speaker 1: times throughout because villain Powder City's chief economists thought Gregg's 328 00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:06,960 Speaker 1: it was very likely early on. Then I got it wrong. 329 00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:11,560 Speaker 1: Then that obviously didn't happen. Then they called it again 330 00:16:11,640 --> 00:16:14,239 Speaker 1: basically this sum this year when they had the referendum, 331 00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:18,200 Speaker 1: just like a few days before. And so yeah, I 332 00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:19,480 Speaker 1: don't know, I don't know where they have at these 333 00:16:19,600 --> 00:16:21,480 Speaker 1: I wouldn't be surprised, you know, if ever, you know 334 00:16:21,640 --> 00:16:25,680 Speaker 1: they still have like it could be um, but obviously 335 00:16:26,120 --> 00:16:29,640 Speaker 1: we recently had the Spanish election, so there's no end 336 00:16:29,680 --> 00:16:31,800 Speaker 1: of political turmoil in Europe. But in terms of like 337 00:16:31,840 --> 00:16:34,680 Speaker 1: an acute risk of a country leaving, it seems to 338 00:16:34,720 --> 00:16:38,200 Speaker 1: have a fifteen was the year that seems to have passed. 339 00:16:38,440 --> 00:16:41,520 Speaker 1: So your favorite story is essentially the end of a story? Yeah, 340 00:16:41,520 --> 00:16:42,960 Speaker 1: I think so it's the end of the story. And 341 00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:45,680 Speaker 1: I think like between that and with the FED finally 342 00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:50,200 Speaker 1: raising rates, with the these new regulations coming into place, 343 00:16:50,480 --> 00:16:53,200 Speaker 1: it does feel like this year it was kind of 344 00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:57,480 Speaker 1: a at least the end of one big chapter for 345 00:16:57,760 --> 00:17:00,400 Speaker 1: or you know, if it was a multi volume novel, 346 00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:09,480 Speaker 1: than at least one booklist closed this year, I would say, oh, 347 00:17:09,880 --> 00:17:14,160 Speaker 1: look he's here. It's Dan Moss, Dan High Dan, who 348 00:17:14,200 --> 00:17:18,360 Speaker 1: are you? Um? I am the executive editor for Global Economics. 349 00:17:18,760 --> 00:17:21,240 Speaker 1: So what was your favorite story this year? My favorite 350 00:17:21,240 --> 00:17:24,119 Speaker 1: story was about China and a movie, and it's not 351 00:17:24,320 --> 00:17:28,359 Speaker 1: Star Wars, which actually is not showing in China yet. 352 00:17:28,840 --> 00:17:32,880 Speaker 1: It's to do with quotas imposed on distribution of foreign movies. 353 00:17:33,800 --> 00:17:38,560 Speaker 1: My favorite story was a story about Furious seven and 354 00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:42,520 Speaker 1: it's box office smash in China April fourteen by our 355 00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:46,679 Speaker 1: colleague Malcolm Scott, who is responsible for economics coverage of 356 00:17:46,720 --> 00:17:50,600 Speaker 1: Greater China, and the headline is Furious seven China box 357 00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:55,159 Speaker 1: office record shows consumers rising role and I thought this 358 00:17:55,359 --> 00:17:59,040 Speaker 1: just encapsulated the big shift we've seen in the past 359 00:17:59,119 --> 00:18:04,359 Speaker 1: eighteen months. But it's really crystallized. This year. Consumption now 360 00:18:04,440 --> 00:18:09,639 Speaker 1: accounted for more than of China's gross domestic product. This 361 00:18:09,760 --> 00:18:12,400 Speaker 1: is a huge debate in the global economy right whether 362 00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:15,120 Speaker 1: or not China can meet the transition from a sort 363 00:18:15,119 --> 00:18:18,360 Speaker 1: of manufacturing based economy to a services one. Right, it's 364 00:18:18,400 --> 00:18:21,199 Speaker 1: a huge shift that's prompting a huge debate now. The 365 00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:25,200 Speaker 1: great Iron is for years and years and years, No 366 00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:28,560 Speaker 1: G seven, no I m F No G twenty communicate 367 00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:32,200 Speaker 1: was complete without a reference to China needing to shift 368 00:18:32,240 --> 00:18:37,240 Speaker 1: away from exports towards consumption and services. Well, it's happening. 369 00:18:37,280 --> 00:18:41,040 Speaker 1: The problem is. It's happening not the way people envisaged. 370 00:18:41,720 --> 00:18:44,080 Speaker 1: So while a lot of the headlines are focused on 371 00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:49,439 Speaker 1: commodities dive as China exports do x or China manufacturing 372 00:18:49,600 --> 00:18:54,600 Speaker 1: does why, people also ask themselves, well, how come movies 373 00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:56,840 Speaker 1: can do really well? And how come a company like 374 00:18:56,960 --> 00:19:00,920 Speaker 1: Ali Barber can do very well despite the iron A slowdown. 375 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:05,320 Speaker 1: All the answer is China's economy. It's not the same 376 00:19:05,359 --> 00:19:08,680 Speaker 1: thing that dung Shaoping opened up in the late seventies. 377 00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:13,800 Speaker 1: It is now about consumption and services. Consumption and services. 378 00:19:14,160 --> 00:19:16,159 Speaker 1: This is a sort of unrelated. But if they're not 379 00:19:16,200 --> 00:19:19,400 Speaker 1: showing Star Wars yet, are they using the Great Firewall 380 00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:22,679 Speaker 1: to keep out spoilers from the entire country? Like you 381 00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:24,640 Speaker 1: think they would make an exception for this one moment. 382 00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:26,080 Speaker 1: Are you going to move to China just so you 383 00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:27,760 Speaker 1: can avoid spoiler? No? I don't really care one way 384 00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:29,720 Speaker 1: or another. I just think like there's so much obsession 385 00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:32,359 Speaker 1: with the avoiding spoilers it seems like a problem, like 386 00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:34,679 Speaker 1: how long are they delaying it for. I don't know. 387 00:19:34,920 --> 00:19:38,240 Speaker 1: I think it's not far away. And I'm certainly not 388 00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:41,960 Speaker 1: an expert on the structure of media, but this story 389 00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:46,159 Speaker 1: about Furious seven really did strike me as encapsulating this 390 00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:49,840 Speaker 1: shift that was seeing in China, which is a little understood. 391 00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:52,879 Speaker 1: The box office numbers in China much bigger than they 392 00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:54,800 Speaker 1: were in the US and everywhere else in the world. 393 00:19:55,520 --> 00:19:59,400 Speaker 1: That's a great question, but it was the biggest one 394 00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:02,920 Speaker 1: day box so office whole talking sixty three point two millions, 395 00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:07,440 Speaker 1: surpassing the previous record hold Transform is full. Thank you, Dan, 396 00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:10,520 Speaker 1: and I should take this opportunity to mention that Dan 397 00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:13,680 Speaker 1: is also a co host on the Benchmark podcast, which 398 00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:23,959 Speaker 1: is another one of Bloomberg's suite of multiplying podcasts. Loll's Tracy, 399 00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:28,000 Speaker 1: that was a fun conversation, really and a really fun year. 400 00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:31,399 Speaker 1: I would say, definitely an interesting year in markets. I 401 00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:35,120 Speaker 1: feel like next year might be even more interesting and 402 00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:38,080 Speaker 1: a good thing. That will be recording another show on 403 00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:40,400 Speaker 1: that topic very soon. I agree. I I do think 404 00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:42,719 Speaker 1: next year will be really interesting. I was just writing 405 00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:45,679 Speaker 1: about this fact, which is that it feels to me 406 00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:49,159 Speaker 1: like there's markets are always pretty uncertain, but it feels 407 00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:51,360 Speaker 1: to me like there's an unusual amount of uncertain gig 408 00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:53,480 Speaker 1: going on this year. No one really knows what fed 409 00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:55,520 Speaker 1: Liftoff is going to be like, there's a lot of 410 00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:58,040 Speaker 1: debate about this date of the economy. People don't know 411 00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:00,720 Speaker 1: if the emerging market growth model is broke again. So 412 00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:02,720 Speaker 1: I think it will be a very interesting year and 413 00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:07,120 Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to our predictions episode Excellence. I'm Joe 414 00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:09,520 Speaker 1: Wisn't There. You can follow me on Twitter at at 415 00:21:09,560 --> 00:21:12,159 Speaker 1: the Stalk And I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me 416 00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:31,840 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Tracy Alloway. We'll see you next week. 417 00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:37,760 Speaker 1: Joe and I are very proud of our new podcast, 418 00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:41,200 Speaker 1: Odd Lots, but we are also very proud of Bloomberg's 419 00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:44,600 Speaker 1: other growing suite of original podcast all designed to help 420 00:21:44,640 --> 00:21:48,199 Speaker 1: you navigate the complexities of business, financial markets, and the 421 00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:52,080 Speaker 1: global economy. So in addition to our own podcast, please 422 00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:56,040 Speaker 1: don't miss Benchmark with Dan Moss, Tory Stillwell and Aki Edo, 423 00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:59,480 Speaker 1: an informative, jargon free look at the inner workings of 424 00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:02,440 Speaker 1: the global economy. Then there's a Deal of the Week 425 00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:04,879 Speaker 1: with our M and A reporter Alec Sherman, which is 426 00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:06,919 Speaker 1: a breakdown of the biggest M and A deals and 427 00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:10,680 Speaker 1: gives you an inside peak at corporate boardrooms. All three 428 00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:14,720 Speaker 1: shows are available on iTunes, SoundCloud, pocket Cast for Android, 429 00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:17,720 Speaker 1: bloomberg dot com, and of course the Bloomberg terminal