WEBVTT - A US Clothing Brand On the Existential Threat From the Tariffs

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>Hello and welcome to another episode of the All Thoughts podcast.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Tracy Alloway.

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<v Speaker 3>And I'm Joe Wisenthal.

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<v Speaker 2>Joe, we've been inadvertently doing a tariff series basically on

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<v Speaker 2>what the trade restrictions mean for a bunch of different industries.

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<v Speaker 3>So funny that I've read your mind. Yes, it's like

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<v Speaker 3>we have to go down the list. There's actually it's impossible.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, every industry is going to be affected by

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<v Speaker 3>tariffs a different way, and there's this temptation like, Okay,

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<v Speaker 3>let's just talk to someone from literally every single industry.

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<v Speaker 4>Today.

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<v Speaker 3>On May seventh, we released an episode talking about the

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<v Speaker 3>video game industry. But yes, we could go down the

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<v Speaker 3>line of every category within GDP and learn something.

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<v Speaker 2>Video games, len tols, yes, the important stuff. No, So

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<v Speaker 2>when we're talking about tariffs, I think one of the

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<v Speaker 2>really big industries that is obviously going to get impacted

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<v Speaker 2>has to be clothing and textiles. Right, So we know

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<v Speaker 2>places like China, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh are huge textile exporters,

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<v Speaker 2>and so we should talk about that and what it

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<v Speaker 2>actually is like if you're running a clothing business in

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<v Speaker 2>the US to source textiles from abroad.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, it's funny. I was at some event for

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<v Speaker 3>my school and I ran into a fellow dad, or

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<v Speaker 3>for my kids school, and I ran into a fellow

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<v Speaker 3>dad with a clothing company. Like the two days after

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<v Speaker 3>the initial tariffs were revealed in early April, he was

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<v Speaker 3>talking about he was going to add a button on

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<v Speaker 3>his website and made some sort of athletic gear, talking

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<v Speaker 3>about like this is the pre and post tariff prize.

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<v Speaker 3>He was talking about how it might make sense in

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<v Speaker 3>certain circumstances to move some of his manufacturing outside the US,

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<v Speaker 3>especially what he sells to non US customers so much

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<v Speaker 3>in textiles specifically. The other I think about textiles, of course,

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<v Speaker 3>is when people think about the China shock. You know,

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<v Speaker 3>that's one of the first categories that comes to mind,

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<v Speaker 3>the fact that the US used to have a booming

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<v Speaker 3>textile industry, particularly in the Southeast, as we know.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, we visited the remnants of the American textile industry

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<v Speaker 2>in North Carolina.

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<v Speaker 3>So there's a lot there.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, all right, Well, I am very pleased to say

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<v Speaker 2>we do, in fact have the perfect guest. I have

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<v Speaker 2>to do a disclaimer up top because this guest is

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<v Speaker 2>a longtime friend of mine. We actually went to high

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<v Speaker 2>school together in Tokyo, and she started her own clothing

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<v Speaker 2>company and I was involved at the very beginning doing

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<v Speaker 2>product testing and caveat. I have a lot of their clothes.

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<v Speaker 2>I have dresses that are I think at this point

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<v Speaker 2>are like ten years old, but they still look amazing.

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<v Speaker 2>So I am a big fan of this company. That

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<v Speaker 2>is my disclaimer.

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<v Speaker 3>Tracy, did you ever do any modeling?

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<v Speaker 2>Yes?

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<v Speaker 3>I thought, did you ever do any modeling for this company?

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<v Speaker 1>No?

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, no, no, no, we can talk about that later.

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<v Speaker 2>I did modeling when I was like seventeen in Tokyo,

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<v Speaker 2>where the standards are arguably a lot lower. Anyway, I'm

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<v Speaker 2>very pleased to say we're going to be speaking with

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<v Speaker 2>Sarah Lafleur. She is the founder and CEO of M M.

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<v Speaker 4>Lafleur. So, Sarah, thank you so much for coming on

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<v Speaker 4>off us. Thank you for having me. It's a true honor, sir.

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<v Speaker 3>What is your favorite Tracy memory? And did you know

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<v Speaker 3>she would go to go was going to be a

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<v Speaker 3>star podcaster?

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<v Speaker 4>One day I thought she was going to be the

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<v Speaker 4>US ambassador of the United nations.

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<v Speaker 2>So yeah, I guess she.

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<v Speaker 4>Was always a true intellectual, uh huh. And I would

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<v Speaker 4>say precocious beyond her years.

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<v Speaker 2>So this is yeah, that's probably fair. All right, Sarah,

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<v Speaker 2>talk to us about the company. How would you describe

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<v Speaker 2>Amma Lafleur and when did you get started?

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<v Speaker 4>Sure? So I started the company in twenty thirteen with

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<v Speaker 4>my two co founders. I myself do not come from

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<v Speaker 4>the fashion world. I actually worked in management consulting and

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<v Speaker 4>then in private equity, right, yes, I was at Bain,

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<v Speaker 4>and you know, I always struggled to kind of find good,

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<v Speaker 4>well made, appropriate but still very stylish, professional women's clothing.

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<v Speaker 4>Like I just thought there was a real dearth in

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<v Speaker 4>the market. And I was never I had never been

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<v Speaker 4>in fashion. My mother actually worked in high and fashion

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<v Speaker 4>and she would always bring home these like beautiful, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>pieces of textiles and got these Chanel suits and I

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<v Speaker 4>was like, gosh, that's so beautiful, and that's what I'm

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<v Speaker 4>going to wear when I grow up and I'm a

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<v Speaker 4>working woman, and lo and behold, I found out, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>for my budget, I was not going to be wearing

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<v Speaker 4>a Chanelle suit to work. But the idea stayed with

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<v Speaker 4>me and basically when I was twenty seven, couldn't get

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<v Speaker 4>into business school, didn't know what to do with my life.

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<v Speaker 4>Private equity was not quite the right place for me.

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<v Speaker 4>I was like, you know what, I've always I've always

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<v Speaker 4>thought this was a good idea. Let me, let me

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<v Speaker 4>go for it. So, yeah, it's been gosh, it's been

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<v Speaker 4>almost twelve years. We launched in twenty thirteen. Were predominantly

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<v Speaker 4>an e commerce company, but we also have eight stores

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<v Speaker 4>across the country and we also sell through wholesale.

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<v Speaker 3>So what do you we'll get into, you know, wanted

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<v Speaker 3>to get into the nitty gritty of the business and

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<v Speaker 3>the supply chain and so forth. But from a very

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<v Speaker 3>big perspective, someone sees an ad for your clothes on Instagram.

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<v Speaker 3>Maybe they see a shirt or a jacket or pants

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<v Speaker 3>that they like. Where was it designed? Where did the

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<v Speaker 3>materials come from, and how did it who put them together?

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<v Speaker 3>And how do they get to the end?

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<v Speaker 4>Shopper, Yeah, great question. So we are all designed in

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<v Speaker 4>New York City. Our offices are, you know, in the

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<v Speaker 4>Financial District actually, and it's my creative director who usually

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<v Speaker 4>you start with fabric with collections. I think this is

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<v Speaker 4>like a little known fact. People always think you sketch

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<v Speaker 4>first and then you find the fabrics, right, But it's

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<v Speaker 4>really so much of fashion is really led by the

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<v Speaker 4>fabric and textile industry. So you you know, often you

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<v Speaker 4>go to these fabric shows or these fabric mills come

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<v Speaker 4>to you, you're inspired by different fabrications, and then you

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<v Speaker 4>take that and you say, okay, what am I going

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<v Speaker 4>to design into this. Maybe it's a jacket, maybe it's

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<v Speaker 4>a shirt, what have you. And then from there the

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<v Speaker 4>designer sketches and then the pattern maker, very important person

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<v Speaker 4>I call you know, this person is like the architect

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<v Speaker 4>of the clothing, will actually then say, okay, in order

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<v Speaker 4>for this dress, let's say, to come to life, here's

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<v Speaker 4>how the fabric needs to be laid out on a

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<v Speaker 4>piece of you know, on a piece of fabric, and

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<v Speaker 4>cut and then put together. Different companies do different things,

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<v Speaker 4>but you know, if you are working with a fabric

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<v Speaker 4>factory overseas, then oftentimes you will then send the pattern

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<v Speaker 4>overseas to the factory. The factory will do the first

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<v Speaker 4>what we call fit sample that gets sent back to

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<v Speaker 4>New York. You fit it in New York, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>with your fit model, and you know, depending on whether

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<v Speaker 4>you're a brand that spends a lot of money on

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<v Speaker 4>product development or not, you might do one too, even

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<v Speaker 4>up to three fit samples before you ultimately go into

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<v Speaker 4>production in the factory overseas.

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<v Speaker 2>Wow. Okay, So, given the importance of the fabric in

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<v Speaker 2>the design process, talk to us a little bit more

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<v Speaker 2>about how you actually source that because the fabrics that

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<v Speaker 2>you use are also a big differentiator for you. Right,

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<v Speaker 2>you have very special fabrics and again I'm going to

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<v Speaker 2>sound like I'm doing an ad for this company. We

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<v Speaker 2>love that, but I mean they're great fabrics for work

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<v Speaker 2>where they really are and they're sort of specially made

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<v Speaker 2>is my understanding for exactly that scenario.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, we really focus on machine washability and wrinkle resistance.

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<v Speaker 4>So Japan is great with that. You know, it's not

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<v Speaker 4>your mother's polyester. Synthetic fibers have really come a long way.

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<v Speaker 4>So there are a lot of synthetic fibers that behave

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<v Speaker 4>like silk or look like silk, but are still machine

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<v Speaker 4>washable wrinkle resistant. But we also love natural fibers and

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<v Speaker 4>natural fibers. You know, places that are good at that

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<v Speaker 4>historically are when it comes to wool, Italy Germany. When

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<v Speaker 4>it comes to silk, China, like, China is really one

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<v Speaker 4>of the few countries now left in the world that

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<v Speaker 4>still actually does silk. Same for wool in cashmere. You know,

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<v Speaker 4>if you want to do alp haka, well I'll paka

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<v Speaker 4>like you could still go to Peru. There are other places.

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<v Speaker 4>But when it comes to most will most cashmeir, I

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<v Speaker 4>would say it's China. You could go to Mongolia for Kashmir,

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<v Speaker 4>but there aren't that many places across the world that

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<v Speaker 4>that do these natural fibers.

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<v Speaker 3>For the types of sort of high end stylish clothes

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<v Speaker 3>that you sell. Where are the big manufacturing hubs right now,

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<v Speaker 3>and where do you, like, you know, explain the link. Okay,

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<v Speaker 3>there might be some you know, textile company that's really

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<v Speaker 3>good at you know, advanced synthetics in Japan. I know

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<v Speaker 3>that well because I buy all my clothes from Uniclo

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<v Speaker 3>and they never wrinkle, which is really nice because I'm

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<v Speaker 3>very lazy. But then talk to us about like, okay,

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<v Speaker 3>how what is the process from like getting the textiles

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<v Speaker 3>to wherever they're actually cut in a symbol?

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, great question. Some factories are vertically integrated, meaning they

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<v Speaker 4>both make the fabrics or you know, they have a

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<v Speaker 4>partner from whom they source the fabrics and then they

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<v Speaker 4>produce the actual clothing at their factories. I would say generally,

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<v Speaker 4>although not always, lower priced products are made this way.

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<v Speaker 4>If you are for us, we like to nominate our fabrics.

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<v Speaker 4>That's the word that's used in the industry, meaning we

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<v Speaker 4>are specifying where the fabric should come from, what we

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<v Speaker 4>want it to be, and which mill we want it

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<v Speaker 4>to come from. And then the factory, which is often

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<v Speaker 4>in a different country they usually are not in the

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<v Speaker 4>same country, takes on that fabric from that mill and

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<v Speaker 4>then cuts it and produces it. So often, though not always,

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<v Speaker 4>the two things, the fabric mill and the factory are

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<v Speaker 4>two different companies in two different countries.

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<v Speaker 2>So how do you find factories and mills to work with?

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<v Speaker 2>And I guess a questions as a startup founder, what

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<v Speaker 2>was your first experience actually finding a factory slash mill?

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<v Speaker 4>Actually? Like, well, I think I prefaced earlier that I

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<v Speaker 4>never worked in fashion, and so literally I contacted the

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<v Speaker 4>New York City I think, you know, I was an

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<v Speaker 4>economic development corporation and for a lot of fashion designers

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<v Speaker 4>right who are trying to get their foot in the

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<v Speaker 4>door and start their own line. The garment district in

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<v Speaker 4>New York City is amazing, and I would say, I

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<v Speaker 4>mean when I got started a decade ago, he was

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<v Speaker 4>it was I mean, yes, a declining industry, but definitely

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<v Speaker 4>more bustling than it was now. And there was a

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<v Speaker 4>directory of factories that you could contact. But I mean

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<v Speaker 4>it was kind of laughable because a lot of these

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<v Speaker 4>factories A don't use email. I think they may have

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<v Speaker 4>a phone which they may pick up if it's a

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<v Speaker 4>good day. Really, these factories, the way you get in

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<v Speaker 4>the door is by knowing somebody who's worked with them,

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<v Speaker 4>and even then they may not be willing to take

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<v Speaker 4>you on. You know, it's a huge risk for them. A.

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<v Speaker 4>Can this designer actually pay for whatever it is that

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<v Speaker 4>I'm going to do? And B is this designer actually

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<v Speaker 4>going to be around a year from now? Because you know,

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<v Speaker 4>fashion people come and go so fast, and so unless

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<v Speaker 4>it's through a connection or a referral or you're you know,

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<v Speaker 4>somewhat established, it's really hard to get your foot on

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<v Speaker 4>the door. I mean, I was begging people to take

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<v Speaker 4>my orders when we first got started and we were

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<v Speaker 4>doing manufacturing in the garment district.

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<v Speaker 3>Oh, you're doing manufacturing in the garment district.

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<v Speaker 4>This was this was a decade ago, but yeah, I

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<v Speaker 4>got it today.

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<v Speaker 3>If you want to go to a factory somewhere in

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<v Speaker 3>Asia and you have the textiles, what are like some

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<v Speaker 3>of the minimums you know, like what's a minimum run?

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<v Speaker 3>Because I have to like, like you said, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>they want to know that you're still going to be

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<v Speaker 3>around from now. They have to allocate capacity. They presumably

0:11:59.400 --> 0:12:01.560
<v Speaker 3>don't want to just allocate a little capacity and then

0:12:01.600 --> 0:12:03.320
<v Speaker 3>have to change talk to us about like what you

0:12:03.320 --> 0:12:07.000
<v Speaker 3>have to bring to the table from a volume standpoint,

0:12:07.160 --> 0:12:10.480
<v Speaker 3>in terms of a reliability standpoint, in terms of a

0:12:10.720 --> 0:12:13.880
<v Speaker 3>dollar standpoint, such that it's worth taking you in the door.

0:12:14.240 --> 0:12:21.959
<v Speaker 4>There's huge variability in both factories within one country and

0:12:22.000 --> 0:12:26.240
<v Speaker 4>then from country to country. Right, So I would say China,

0:12:26.440 --> 0:12:31.800
<v Speaker 4>Once upon a time, probably the moq's limitedmnium order quantities

0:12:31.880 --> 0:12:36.760
<v Speaker 4>were north of a thousand easily okay. But now as

0:12:36.880 --> 0:12:40.720
<v Speaker 4>wages in China have gone up, a lot of factories

0:12:40.800 --> 0:12:43.839
<v Speaker 4>that we work with are willing to do moqus as

0:12:43.880 --> 0:12:46.559
<v Speaker 4>low as one hundred. There might be a sort charge

0:12:46.559 --> 0:12:46.800
<v Speaker 4>for it.

0:12:46.880 --> 0:12:51.800
<v Speaker 3>Wait, why is the lower volume? Why take lower volume

0:12:51.800 --> 0:12:52.600
<v Speaker 3>as wages.

0:12:52.280 --> 0:12:57.400
<v Speaker 4>Have gone up because brands have moved to other places

0:12:57.440 --> 0:13:01.640
<v Speaker 4>like Bangladesh, places in Northern Africa. I mean it is.

0:13:01.720 --> 0:13:03.720
<v Speaker 4>I don't want to say it's a race to the bottom,

0:13:03.800 --> 0:13:06.280
<v Speaker 4>but it is in many ways. You know, as labor

0:13:06.320 --> 0:13:09.400
<v Speaker 4>prices rise, brands are always saying like, Okay, well I

0:13:09.400 --> 0:13:11.960
<v Speaker 4>gotta go cheaper, I gotta go cheaper. Oh interesting, So

0:13:12.120 --> 0:13:15.679
<v Speaker 4>they you know, first went to Southeast Asia, they moved

0:13:15.720 --> 0:13:19.040
<v Speaker 4>over to you know, South Asia, you know India. Bangladesh

0:13:19.120 --> 0:13:21.720
<v Speaker 4>still does a lot of you know units where they

0:13:21.960 --> 0:13:25.360
<v Speaker 4>need one thousand, two thousand, sometimes north of ten thousand units.

0:13:25.400 --> 0:13:27.959
<v Speaker 4>And then also Northern Africa is now kind of considered

0:13:27.960 --> 0:13:30.640
<v Speaker 4>the next frontier tracy. This is interesting.

0:13:30.640 --> 0:13:30.800
<v Speaker 2>You know.

0:13:30.840 --> 0:13:32.320
<v Speaker 3>One of the things I've seen a couple of people

0:13:32.320 --> 0:13:35.560
<v Speaker 3>talk about is like China experiencing its own China shock

0:13:36.400 --> 0:13:41.400
<v Speaker 3>because some of these low end textiles, those legacy operations

0:13:41.760 --> 0:13:46.000
<v Speaker 3>are now competing with cheaper wage countries, the same way

0:13:46.440 --> 0:13:49.920
<v Speaker 3>textile companies in the US for competing with other Asian countries.

0:13:50.120 --> 0:13:50.400
<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

0:13:50.440 --> 0:13:53.280
<v Speaker 2>Absolutely, Okay, So Sarah, we got to get to the

0:13:53.320 --> 0:13:56.520
<v Speaker 2>meat of this discussion. I guess let's talk about the tariffs.

0:13:56.720 --> 0:13:58.920
<v Speaker 2>So when I when I asked you about this issue,

0:13:58.960 --> 0:14:01.160
<v Speaker 2>you said that teriffs were all you've been thinking about

0:14:01.200 --> 0:14:02.480
<v Speaker 2>for basically the past month.

0:14:02.640 --> 0:14:04.679
<v Speaker 4>Yes, and even that feels like an understatement. I think

0:14:04.679 --> 0:14:08.360
<v Speaker 4>I dream about it. I mean, it is been so

0:14:10.559 --> 0:14:14.959
<v Speaker 4>detrimental to the business. It's not like running a fashion

0:14:15.000 --> 0:14:18.960
<v Speaker 4>business in twenty twenty five was a cakewalk. Right. It's

0:14:19.000 --> 0:14:24.800
<v Speaker 4>already an incredibly competitive business with razor thin margins. We're

0:14:24.840 --> 0:14:28.800
<v Speaker 4>dealing with pressures on the marketing side from you know,

0:14:29.040 --> 0:14:32.720
<v Speaker 4>Meta and Google, right. I mean, we just went through

0:14:32.720 --> 0:14:35.720
<v Speaker 4>the pandemic where I had to close all eleven of

0:14:35.760 --> 0:14:38.760
<v Speaker 4>my stores and then gradually open them back up again

0:14:38.800 --> 0:14:41.000
<v Speaker 4>to the point where now we have eight. I mean,

0:14:41.080 --> 0:14:45.000
<v Speaker 4>it was it was devastating going through the pandemic, and

0:14:45.280 --> 0:14:48.720
<v Speaker 4>we survived by the skin of our teeth. We've made

0:14:48.760 --> 0:14:52.080
<v Speaker 4>it through the other end. We had just finished budgeting

0:14:52.120 --> 0:14:57.720
<v Speaker 4>for twenty twenty five, and I think, you know, this

0:14:57.760 --> 0:15:01.240
<v Speaker 4>will probably be not a total surprise that I'm a

0:15:01.280 --> 0:15:03.080
<v Speaker 4>New Yorker. But you know, we were saying, okay, when

0:15:03.160 --> 0:15:06.560
<v Speaker 4>when Kamala Harrison get elected, we were like, well, everyone

0:15:06.600 --> 0:15:08.360
<v Speaker 4>says Trump's going to be good for business. We have

0:15:08.400 --> 0:15:11.240
<v Speaker 4>a big business in Washington, d C. Change of administration

0:15:11.440 --> 0:15:14.360
<v Speaker 4>is usually also good for our business. The first thing

0:15:14.400 --> 0:15:18.240
<v Speaker 4>we came, you know, ran across was the Doge cuts.

0:15:18.320 --> 0:15:22.480
<v Speaker 4>So our two DC stores are down about twenty to

0:15:22.520 --> 0:15:25.240
<v Speaker 4>twenty five percent from l Y while all of our

0:15:25.280 --> 0:15:29.560
<v Speaker 4>customers that come in are either have been laid off

0:15:29.640 --> 0:15:32.120
<v Speaker 4>or are nervous that they are going to get laid off,

0:15:32.320 --> 0:15:33.800
<v Speaker 4>or that they're going to have they're going to be

0:15:33.840 --> 0:15:37.280
<v Speaker 4>some repercussions. So we were already feeling those effects going

0:15:37.280 --> 0:15:42.120
<v Speaker 4>into March. I still remember the moment the U what

0:15:42.280 --> 0:15:44.240
<v Speaker 4>was it, Liberation.

0:15:43.920 --> 0:15:45.240
<v Speaker 2>Day, April second.

0:15:45.320 --> 0:15:47.920
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, yes, I was sitting in my office. We were

0:15:47.960 --> 0:15:51.360
<v Speaker 4>doing a meeting and my phone blew up. I'm on,

0:15:51.400 --> 0:15:54.840
<v Speaker 4>you know, various text change with other fashion founders and CEOs,

0:15:55.840 --> 0:16:00.080
<v Speaker 4>and they're saying, have you seen the numbers? And you know,

0:16:00.400 --> 0:16:03.680
<v Speaker 4>I mean just that's all we could focus on.

0:16:03.840 --> 0:16:06.320
<v Speaker 2>You are one of the people squinting at the billboards.

0:16:06.360 --> 0:16:09.120
<v Speaker 4>Aha, ha, we were, And I was like, someone get

0:16:09.120 --> 0:16:14.360
<v Speaker 4>a screenshot of this. Anyway, the numbers were kind of

0:16:14.480 --> 0:16:17.480
<v Speaker 4>beyond I think what anyone of us expected, right, And

0:16:17.520 --> 0:16:21.400
<v Speaker 4>I remember I was actually in China, Hong Kong, in

0:16:21.520 --> 0:16:24.880
<v Speaker 4>Vietnam where a lot of our partners were or are

0:16:24.960 --> 0:16:27.360
<v Speaker 4>in November, and you know, we were all talking about

0:16:27.400 --> 0:16:28.760
<v Speaker 4>and like, how bad do you think it's going to be?

0:16:29.240 --> 0:16:31.080
<v Speaker 4>And one of my partners was like, you know, I

0:16:31.120 --> 0:16:34.360
<v Speaker 4>don't think it can be that bad because where else

0:16:34.360 --> 0:16:36.080
<v Speaker 4>are you going to get your silk? I mean, where

0:16:36.120 --> 0:16:37.840
<v Speaker 4>else are you gonna get your silk? So I predict

0:16:37.920 --> 0:16:40.640
<v Speaker 4>ten percent. It can't be higher than ten percent. Yeah,

0:16:40.680 --> 0:16:42.240
<v Speaker 4>And then when we saw the fifty four percent on

0:16:42.320 --> 0:16:44.560
<v Speaker 4>top of the thirty percent we were already encountering, we

0:16:44.560 --> 0:16:48.640
<v Speaker 4>were like, well, that's just insane. And then it just

0:16:48.680 --> 0:16:50.360
<v Speaker 4>got worse and worse and worse. I mean, i'll tell

0:16:50.360 --> 0:16:53.920
<v Speaker 4>you between Liberation Day April second, and then April eleventh,

0:16:53.960 --> 0:16:57.400
<v Speaker 4>we were on calls with our factories like night and day.

0:16:57.440 --> 0:16:59.960
<v Speaker 4>I don't think I don't think my factory partners slew

0:17:00.400 --> 0:17:03.960
<v Speaker 4>for those seven days. You know, any hour of any

0:17:04.000 --> 0:17:05.920
<v Speaker 4>day we could reach them, and we were just basically saying,

0:17:05.960 --> 0:17:07.600
<v Speaker 4>get it on the boat, get it on the boat,

0:17:07.640 --> 0:17:11.360
<v Speaker 4>except it was total chaos at the ports. So it's

0:17:11.400 --> 0:17:13.880
<v Speaker 4>just like, you know, after forty eight seventy two hours,

0:17:13.880 --> 0:17:15.879
<v Speaker 4>it was like we couldn't even secure a space on

0:17:16.280 --> 0:17:19.000
<v Speaker 4>the boat and like the night before it's all about

0:17:19.040 --> 0:17:20.720
<v Speaker 4>to go down, you know, I'm on a call with

0:17:20.760 --> 0:17:22.359
<v Speaker 4>one of my partners in Hong Kong, and I'm like,

0:17:22.400 --> 0:17:24.080
<v Speaker 4>did you get it on the boat? And he was

0:17:24.160 --> 0:17:26.919
<v Speaker 4>like no, I couldn't get this on the boat. And

0:17:26.960 --> 0:17:28.639
<v Speaker 4>then I was like, okay, then don't put it on

0:17:28.720 --> 0:17:31.639
<v Speaker 4>the boat. And then you know, and then whenever I

0:17:31.640 --> 0:17:34.479
<v Speaker 4>can't even remember the exact timeline now, but whenever, you know,

0:17:34.640 --> 0:17:38.560
<v Speaker 4>we went into whenever it we went into it, like

0:17:38.560 --> 0:17:41.320
<v Speaker 4>the ninety day grace period, I was like, get it

0:17:41.359 --> 0:17:42.879
<v Speaker 4>on the boat, get it on the boat. I mean,

0:17:42.920 --> 0:17:46.240
<v Speaker 4>it just felt like it just felt like I hate

0:17:46.240 --> 0:17:49.200
<v Speaker 4>to use this metaphor, but like it's like the last

0:17:49.240 --> 0:17:52.360
<v Speaker 4>ship or the last helicopter out of Saigon and everyone's

0:17:52.440 --> 0:17:54.720
<v Speaker 4>just like trying to get their things on. Yeah.

0:17:54.760 --> 0:17:57.200
<v Speaker 3>I mean, it's okay metaphor because one, you know, that's

0:17:57.240 --> 0:18:00.720
<v Speaker 3>the helicopter, but it's still probably you know, still coming

0:18:00.720 --> 0:18:03.680
<v Speaker 3>out of Vietnam. But actually, what is so right now

0:18:03.920 --> 0:18:07.600
<v Speaker 3>we're recording this May seventh, I guess two questions is like,

0:18:07.720 --> 0:18:10.640
<v Speaker 3>what is your like sort of geographical exposure because that's China,

0:18:10.680 --> 0:18:13.760
<v Speaker 3>it's to only ten percent and and it may get

0:18:14.320 --> 0:18:16.840
<v Speaker 3>I think you know a lot of people think that

0:18:16.920 --> 0:18:18.880
<v Speaker 3>will get even if there's no deals, that that ten

0:18:18.880 --> 0:18:23.400
<v Speaker 3>percent will get extended. What is your current geographical exposures?

0:18:23.440 --> 0:18:25.640
<v Speaker 3>But to the ten percent and one hundred and fifty

0:18:25.640 --> 0:18:26.359
<v Speaker 3>four percent.

0:18:26.280 --> 0:18:30.520
<v Speaker 4>Well, I had to cancel fifty percent of my May collection. Wow,

0:18:30.520 --> 0:18:34.840
<v Speaker 4>because they were all from China Okay. Many of the

0:18:34.840 --> 0:18:38.640
<v Speaker 4>things were late because they were coming out of places

0:18:38.680 --> 0:18:42.399
<v Speaker 4>like Vietnam, Okay, where it was initially hit with the

0:18:42.440 --> 0:18:44.680
<v Speaker 4>fifty four percent and we were saying, oh, I'm sorry,

0:18:44.680 --> 0:18:46.760
<v Speaker 4>it was forty seven percent. We said, don't don't chip it.

0:18:46.960 --> 0:18:49.119
<v Speaker 3>Oh, so there were even though there was got plus

0:18:49.240 --> 0:18:51.040
<v Speaker 3>even back to ten percent fairly quickly.

0:18:51.040 --> 0:18:54.160
<v Speaker 4>It had to create a hiccup totally because it's like fashion.

0:18:54.280 --> 0:18:58.119
<v Speaker 4>It's like it's all about your selling window, right, and

0:18:58.160 --> 0:19:00.720
<v Speaker 4>you bring in your summer clothes and you want to

0:19:00.760 --> 0:19:02.760
<v Speaker 4>sell through most of it within six weeks, and if

0:19:02.800 --> 0:19:05.600
<v Speaker 4>you miss that selling window, well then we'll wait till

0:19:05.640 --> 0:19:08.359
<v Speaker 4>next year. And so some of our products are going

0:19:08.400 --> 0:19:11.600
<v Speaker 4>to be held for a whole year and they're going

0:19:11.680 --> 0:19:14.440
<v Speaker 4>to wait for summer twenty twenty six to be released.

0:19:15.240 --> 0:19:16.879
<v Speaker 4>I mean, this is just I'd chalk it up to

0:19:16.920 --> 0:19:20.440
<v Speaker 4>bad luck. But we actually we have partners in Turkey,

0:19:20.640 --> 0:19:24.480
<v Speaker 4>we have partners in Portugal, China and Vietnam, but by

0:19:24.600 --> 0:19:26.960
<v Speaker 4>far we do most of our production in China. Got it?

0:19:27.200 --> 0:19:30.480
<v Speaker 4>And why is that? It's because the quality is exceptional,

0:19:30.840 --> 0:19:34.119
<v Speaker 4>the prices are not cheap. You know, I have customers

0:19:34.119 --> 0:19:38.280
<v Speaker 4>who've because we've been really communicating transparently with our customers, saying,

0:19:38.600 --> 0:19:41.280
<v Speaker 4>you know, here are the consequences that we're facing and

0:19:41.359 --> 0:19:45.040
<v Speaker 4>our fact Our customers are you know, very sharp, intelligent women,

0:19:45.119 --> 0:19:47.040
<v Speaker 4>and I've had many of them email me saying like,

0:19:47.280 --> 0:19:49.159
<v Speaker 4>you know, I'm really sorry to hear all this. I'm

0:19:49.200 --> 0:19:51.199
<v Speaker 4>going to support your business, but like why don't you

0:19:51.200 --> 0:19:53.520
<v Speaker 4>move your production back to the US? Like why don't

0:19:53.520 --> 0:19:56.280
<v Speaker 4>you move it back to the garment district? And I'm like,

0:19:56.880 --> 0:19:58.800
<v Speaker 4>I don't even know how to explain, Like that's that

0:19:58.920 --> 0:20:03.720
<v Speaker 4>industry is not only dying in many cases gone, it

0:20:03.760 --> 0:20:06.160
<v Speaker 4>could never support the kind of quantity that we want

0:20:06.200 --> 0:20:07.520
<v Speaker 4>to do. And by the way, we're not even that

0:20:07.560 --> 0:20:11.280
<v Speaker 4>big a business, you know. And you know, they sometimes

0:20:11.280 --> 0:20:15.840
<v Speaker 4>I get like I knew, I knew it was made

0:20:15.880 --> 0:20:18.840
<v Speaker 4>in China because you know, the qualities was X y

0:20:18.960 --> 0:20:20.639
<v Speaker 4>Z and I was like, you know, I was like,

0:20:20.760 --> 0:20:23.320
<v Speaker 4>have you ever seen the inside of a factory in China?

0:20:23.440 --> 0:20:27.560
<v Speaker 4>Because you know, the workers who work there, they get

0:20:27.680 --> 0:20:31.920
<v Speaker 4>free lunch. They have a farm at the factory where

0:20:31.960 --> 0:20:35.280
<v Speaker 4>they make fresh vegetables and their lunch is served using

0:20:35.280 --> 0:20:39.920
<v Speaker 4>those fresh vegetables. And they have these beautiful, beautiful dormitories.

0:20:40.240 --> 0:20:43.159
<v Speaker 4>Like there is a lot that these Chinese factories do

0:20:43.359 --> 0:20:46.919
<v Speaker 4>right to treat their workers right. And meanwhile, the garment

0:20:47.000 --> 0:20:51.440
<v Speaker 4>district factories, everyone brings their own toilet paper because if

0:20:51.520 --> 0:20:54.880
<v Speaker 4>they put toilet paper in the toilets, they will get stolen. Right,

0:20:55.280 --> 0:20:59.440
<v Speaker 4>Like everyone thinks like made in New York, beautiful, excellent quality,

0:20:59.680 --> 0:21:04.919
<v Speaker 4>like great labor regulation. It is not the case. You know,

0:21:06.000 --> 0:21:08.360
<v Speaker 4>if it happens, it's very few factories that are very

0:21:08.359 --> 0:21:11.640
<v Speaker 4>selective and very very expensive. The truth is, the American

0:21:11.680 --> 0:21:14.600
<v Speaker 4>consumer does not want to spend that much on clothing,

0:21:14.760 --> 0:21:17.960
<v Speaker 4>as prices have gone up in every single other category.

0:21:18.280 --> 0:21:22.480
<v Speaker 4>Clothing has remained relatively stable since the nineteen nineties. And

0:21:23.000 --> 0:21:25.360
<v Speaker 4>so we can't have it both ways, you know, if

0:21:25.400 --> 0:21:29.040
<v Speaker 4>you want to continue to buy clothing at the prices

0:21:29.080 --> 0:21:32.160
<v Speaker 4>that we're used to, we have to have global trade.

0:21:32.720 --> 0:21:36.280
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, So you mentioned transparency with customers. Talk to us

0:21:36.320 --> 0:21:39.360
<v Speaker 2>about how you're handling the pricing side of things at

0:21:39.359 --> 0:21:41.679
<v Speaker 2>the moment. Are you Are you going to put a

0:21:41.720 --> 0:21:45.320
<v Speaker 2>little button that shows the pre tiff and post tariff

0:21:45.400 --> 0:21:46.560
<v Speaker 2>price or something like that.

0:21:46.720 --> 0:21:49.560
<v Speaker 4>I am so, I'm so tempted to, But you know

0:21:49.680 --> 0:21:51.840
<v Speaker 4>what I worry about is that she's just not gonna

0:21:51.840 --> 0:21:54.879
<v Speaker 4>buy it just transparently. We've already done a round of

0:21:54.920 --> 0:21:59.280
<v Speaker 4>cost cutting, and from where I'm sitting, I see recession

0:21:59.280 --> 0:22:03.400
<v Speaker 4>on the horizon. So I feel like when I see

0:22:03.480 --> 0:22:06.520
<v Speaker 4>recession coming, I don't know if I can also increase

0:22:06.560 --> 0:22:11.960
<v Speaker 4>prices and expect customers to just eat it and get

0:22:12.000 --> 0:22:14.879
<v Speaker 4>on board with it. So you know, I'm getting my

0:22:14.960 --> 0:22:18.200
<v Speaker 4>margins squeezed. We're looking at our August collection right now.

0:22:18.240 --> 0:22:21.399
<v Speaker 4>My August collection, unfortunately, is one hundred percent made in China,

0:22:21.800 --> 0:22:25.600
<v Speaker 4>and we are making very serious trade offs about what

0:22:25.680 --> 0:22:30.159
<v Speaker 4>we're willing to pay a big, big tariffs on and

0:22:30.200 --> 0:22:33.200
<v Speaker 4>bring in versus what we're willing to let go. And

0:22:33.440 --> 0:22:36.120
<v Speaker 4>also my factory partners, like this clothing has already made,

0:22:36.160 --> 0:22:39.280
<v Speaker 4>August has already been made, sown, it's in a box,

0:22:39.359 --> 0:22:43.440
<v Speaker 4>ready to get on a boat, and they're desperate because

0:22:43.480 --> 0:22:46.720
<v Speaker 4>they've already put in their investment, so they're also negotiating

0:22:46.760 --> 0:22:49.159
<v Speaker 4>with us, saying, hey, if I were willing to reduce

0:22:49.200 --> 0:22:50.000
<v Speaker 4>my prices by.

0:22:50.000 --> 0:22:52.159
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, that's what I was wondering. How to what degree

0:22:52.240 --> 0:22:55.240
<v Speaker 3>are those conversations happening about the factory site eating the

0:22:55.320 --> 0:22:56.639
<v Speaker 3>costs or giving you reduction.

0:22:56.840 --> 0:22:59.600
<v Speaker 4>It's happening, I would say, across the board, you know,

0:22:59.640 --> 0:23:02.399
<v Speaker 4>we're or they're saying, like, my goal right now is

0:23:02.480 --> 0:23:04.920
<v Speaker 4>just really to be able to cover my costs. And

0:23:05.040 --> 0:23:06.720
<v Speaker 4>you know, I was like, well, you know, I've been

0:23:06.720 --> 0:23:09.440
<v Speaker 4>hearing these things about like the Chinese government doesn't want

0:23:09.440 --> 0:23:12.280
<v Speaker 4>any of these factories to fail, Like like are they

0:23:12.280 --> 0:23:14.320
<v Speaker 4>what's gonna happen? Is there going to be a version

0:23:14.359 --> 0:23:17.840
<v Speaker 4>of you know, Ppe, the Ppe loan in China? Like

0:23:17.960 --> 0:23:21.400
<v Speaker 4>how how how are you guys going to survive? They're saying,

0:23:21.440 --> 0:23:23.360
<v Speaker 4>I think they're going to pump more money into the banks,

0:23:23.400 --> 0:23:26.200
<v Speaker 4>but none of this money is directly coming to the factories,

0:23:26.200 --> 0:23:28.000
<v Speaker 4>Like they're fighting for their survival too.

0:23:29.080 --> 0:23:32.280
<v Speaker 2>What are the other levers that the factories can pull

0:23:32.400 --> 0:23:34.840
<v Speaker 2>to try to offset some of the impacts, so you know,

0:23:35.000 --> 0:23:38.760
<v Speaker 2>maybe offer discounts to clients but is there anything else

0:23:38.800 --> 0:23:41.480
<v Speaker 2>they can do to sort of deal with the situation.

0:23:41.880 --> 0:23:44.280
<v Speaker 4>One of my factory partners actually wants to launch am

0:23:44.400 --> 0:23:46.840
<v Speaker 4>Laflur in China. Oh. He was like, Hey, I'm gonna

0:23:46.840 --> 0:23:49.280
<v Speaker 4>be stuck with all this inventory. What do you think

0:23:49.320 --> 0:23:51.600
<v Speaker 4>about m M laflur for the Chinese market? And I

0:23:51.640 --> 0:23:53.919
<v Speaker 4>was like, go for it, like I've always wanted to

0:23:53.920 --> 0:23:56.119
<v Speaker 4>do it. It's not it's not as though, you know, so

0:23:56.240 --> 0:23:59.800
<v Speaker 4>like I don't know from from great challenges could come opportunities,

0:24:00.040 --> 0:24:02.200
<v Speaker 4>but it's a long shot, I mean. And so we're

0:24:02.240 --> 0:24:04.440
<v Speaker 4>also looking at that as well. And he's saying, send

0:24:04.480 --> 0:24:05.879
<v Speaker 4>me all the product that's going to be stuck in

0:24:05.960 --> 0:24:08.399
<v Speaker 4>China and let's see if we can actually launch a

0:24:08.480 --> 0:24:11.720
<v Speaker 4>memla Flur China. So it's not as though, you know,

0:24:11.840 --> 0:24:14.159
<v Speaker 4>they're not you know, they're also thinking of every creative

0:24:14.200 --> 0:24:17.840
<v Speaker 4>solution possible. We're firing on all cylinders. And then of course,

0:24:17.920 --> 0:24:20.840
<v Speaker 4>like there's the country washing that's happening. I know, I

0:24:20.920 --> 0:24:22.920
<v Speaker 4>know that we're very careful about it and trying to

0:24:22.920 --> 0:24:23.960
<v Speaker 4>make sure it doesn't happen.

0:24:24.040 --> 0:24:27.760
<v Speaker 2>But this is the idea of moving production elsewhere totally.

0:24:27.840 --> 0:24:30.560
<v Speaker 4>And I should say like finished product elsewhere right now, this.

0:24:30.560 --> 0:24:32.560
<v Speaker 3>Is right, So it's not the production, it's basically live.

0:24:32.920 --> 0:24:35.280
<v Speaker 4>It's exactly it's the product is finished, send it to

0:24:35.280 --> 0:24:38.800
<v Speaker 4>a third country, switch out the label, and ship it

0:24:38.840 --> 0:24:41.320
<v Speaker 4>to the United States. I've got three kids, so I

0:24:41.320 --> 0:24:43.840
<v Speaker 4>can't end up in prison. But I know for a

0:24:43.880 --> 0:24:46.840
<v Speaker 4>fact that it happens, and it'll probably happen a lot,

0:24:46.920 --> 0:24:49.600
<v Speaker 4>and gosh, I mean, I'm sure the government will make

0:24:49.600 --> 0:24:51.680
<v Speaker 4>an example out of a few of them, but it's

0:24:51.680 --> 0:24:53.919
<v Speaker 4>going to be impossible to trace all of them, so

0:24:54.040 --> 0:24:56.280
<v Speaker 4>that that's going to be that's definitely going to happen

0:24:56.320 --> 0:24:56.960
<v Speaker 4>across the board.

0:24:57.359 --> 0:25:00.920
<v Speaker 2>Joe, there is an irony in the idea that like, okay,

0:25:01.080 --> 0:25:04.679
<v Speaker 2>Chinese consumers could end up having more clothing choices in

0:25:04.720 --> 0:25:08.480
<v Speaker 2>the form of an mm Lafleur store in Beijing or

0:25:08.520 --> 0:25:11.760
<v Speaker 2>something like that, and meanwhile, you know, the clothing available

0:25:11.800 --> 0:25:14.240
<v Speaker 2>to American consumers is potentially shrinking.

0:25:14.480 --> 0:25:16.600
<v Speaker 3>Well it's you know, I was actually talking to someone

0:25:16.760 --> 0:25:19.720
<v Speaker 3>this morning and they're like, yeah, inflationary in the US

0:25:19.840 --> 0:25:23.040
<v Speaker 3>and disinflationary everywhere else in the world because of the

0:25:23.119 --> 0:25:23.880
<v Speaker 3>sort of blood of good.

0:25:24.000 --> 0:25:26.320
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, the US is the one exporting deflation.

0:25:26.440 --> 0:25:29.120
<v Speaker 3>Now, Yeah, that's right. It's actually it's actually kind of strange.

0:25:29.440 --> 0:25:32.960
<v Speaker 3>The factories that you work with in China, what have

0:25:33.040 --> 0:25:35.760
<v Speaker 3>they done either in recent years or when they look

0:25:35.840 --> 0:25:39.560
<v Speaker 3>to the future about bringing their know how in capacity

0:25:39.600 --> 0:25:43.160
<v Speaker 3>to other Asian countries. So then it actually is manufactured

0:25:43.160 --> 0:25:46.640
<v Speaker 3>in Vietnam and how much capacity work it's being done

0:25:46.680 --> 0:25:47.320
<v Speaker 3>on those fronts.

0:25:47.480 --> 0:25:51.000
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I mean, I think even from the last Trump administration,

0:25:51.160 --> 0:25:53.159
<v Speaker 4>a lot of Chinese factories kind of saw the writing

0:25:53.200 --> 0:25:56.240
<v Speaker 4>on the wall and so they were diversifying their sources.

0:25:56.240 --> 0:25:59.160
<v Speaker 4>And so I have some factory partners that have opened

0:25:59.200 --> 0:26:02.239
<v Speaker 4>up factories in Vietnam in the Philippines, and I mean

0:26:02.280 --> 0:26:04.400
<v Speaker 4>it's it's kind of fascinating because all the workers will

0:26:04.440 --> 0:26:07.440
<v Speaker 4>be Vietnamese, but the you know, the kind of leaders

0:26:07.480 --> 0:26:10.840
<v Speaker 4>in the factory are all from Hong Kong, and even

0:26:10.840 --> 0:26:12.560
<v Speaker 4>that is tough. Like I think one thing that's like

0:26:12.680 --> 0:26:17.120
<v Speaker 4>not understood about garment manufacturing is it's a real trade.

0:26:17.320 --> 0:26:19.800
<v Speaker 4>And your best sewers are people who have been doing

0:26:19.800 --> 0:26:22.720
<v Speaker 4>this for decades, you know, like you're you're a baby

0:26:22.760 --> 0:26:25.480
<v Speaker 4>sewer if you've only been doing this for like five

0:26:25.520 --> 0:26:28.560
<v Speaker 4>to ten years. The people who make your samples, you know,

0:26:28.760 --> 0:26:29.680
<v Speaker 4>your best sewing you.

0:26:30.040 --> 0:26:32.240
<v Speaker 3>And this is another reason why it's fantasy, the idea

0:26:32.280 --> 0:26:33.640
<v Speaker 3>that this can all be done us, because.

0:26:33.440 --> 0:26:35.440
<v Speaker 4>They're just do you even know how to use a

0:26:35.440 --> 0:26:36.640
<v Speaker 4>sewing machine? I don't.

0:26:36.960 --> 0:26:38.879
<v Speaker 2>I just bought a sewing machine. I'm going to use

0:26:38.920 --> 0:26:41.680
<v Speaker 2>it for the first time tonight. I'm very excited and nervous.

0:26:41.800 --> 0:26:44.040
<v Speaker 4>Great, there you go. Those are most Americans, you know,

0:26:44.200 --> 0:26:46.879
<v Speaker 4>very intellectual. They might know how to code, but they couldn't.

0:26:46.920 --> 0:26:49.080
<v Speaker 4>They don't know the first thing about how to use

0:26:49.119 --> 0:26:52.040
<v Speaker 4>a sewing machine. And they're like, bring garment manufacturing back

0:26:52.080 --> 0:26:54.320
<v Speaker 4>to America. And I was like, people don't know how

0:26:54.359 --> 0:26:55.920
<v Speaker 4>to sew a button on they bring it to the

0:26:56.000 --> 0:27:00.359
<v Speaker 4>dry cleaners, Like, in what world is garment manufacturing actually

0:27:00.359 --> 0:27:04.080
<v Speaker 4>going to come back? So it's just it's it's kind

0:27:04.119 --> 0:27:07.280
<v Speaker 4>of preposterous to imagine that that's a future.

0:27:08.080 --> 0:27:11.640
<v Speaker 3>And therefore it's even slow. And this at the level

0:27:11.640 --> 0:27:14.439
<v Speaker 3>of quality that you expect for your clothes. It's not

0:27:14.560 --> 0:27:18.679
<v Speaker 3>trivial to transport have those skills and capacity emerge into

0:27:18.720 --> 0:27:19.880
<v Speaker 3>Cambodia or Vietnam.

0:27:19.960 --> 0:27:22.120
<v Speaker 4>Oh oh my gosh. Yes, okay, So like I'm let

0:27:22.119 --> 0:27:24.720
<v Speaker 4>me go back to silk, right because silk is silk

0:27:24.800 --> 0:27:28.520
<v Speaker 4>is a very hard material. First of all, you need

0:27:28.560 --> 0:27:31.960
<v Speaker 4>to start with like the mulberry trees and the silkworms, right,

0:27:32.040 --> 0:27:36.119
<v Speaker 4>And I mean creating silk is a very long supply

0:27:36.200 --> 0:27:40.320
<v Speaker 4>chain and a very difficult supply chain. China is one

0:27:40.320 --> 0:27:42.000
<v Speaker 4>of the few countries that actually do it. And then

0:27:42.200 --> 0:27:45.000
<v Speaker 4>sewing silk. Silk is super slippery, right, Like that's kind

0:27:45.040 --> 0:27:46.880
<v Speaker 4>of you. You can make sense of it, Like trying

0:27:46.880 --> 0:27:49.080
<v Speaker 4>to sew silk in a sewing machine takes a really

0:27:49.119 --> 0:27:52.320
<v Speaker 4>skilled hand. So you know, China is the only place

0:27:52.320 --> 0:27:55.520
<v Speaker 4>where we do silk, and I we literally don't have

0:27:55.560 --> 0:27:58.359
<v Speaker 4>another country to move silk to, Like we're saying like

0:27:58.680 --> 0:28:01.920
<v Speaker 4>maybe the Philippine can take it if it's owned by

0:28:01.960 --> 0:28:06.880
<v Speaker 4>a Chinese factory, Like we're desperately looking for a new

0:28:06.880 --> 0:28:10.680
<v Speaker 4>silk factory. I mean this, I say to all all

0:28:10.720 --> 0:28:13.280
<v Speaker 4>people who shop for Christmas in Hanukah, like, buy your

0:28:13.320 --> 0:28:15.000
<v Speaker 4>silk now, because you're not going to see it for

0:28:15.080 --> 0:28:15.440
<v Speaker 4>a while.

0:28:31.480 --> 0:28:34.640
<v Speaker 2>You mentioned earlier that you see recession on the horizon.

0:28:35.000 --> 0:28:37.440
<v Speaker 2>Talk to us about why you think that. And then

0:28:37.520 --> 0:28:41.440
<v Speaker 2>also like how useful or how accurate has the clothing

0:28:41.480 --> 0:28:46.720
<v Speaker 2>business been in predicting previous recessions. I know, well, you've

0:28:46.760 --> 0:28:49.440
<v Speaker 2>only been in existence for ten years or so, twelve

0:28:49.520 --> 0:28:52.840
<v Speaker 2>years maybe, so there aren't that many examples. But I imagine

0:28:52.840 --> 0:28:56.400
<v Speaker 2>like at this point you have some experience. Well it feels.

0:28:56.640 --> 0:28:58.840
<v Speaker 4>I was just at like a retail industry dinner and

0:28:58.840 --> 0:29:01.520
<v Speaker 4>they were joking like every year is a new black

0:29:01.560 --> 0:29:04.920
<v Speaker 4>Swan event, and I was like, yes, I do really

0:29:04.960 --> 0:29:08.000
<v Speaker 4>feel that way. From the pandemic to you know, Silicon

0:29:08.080 --> 0:29:10.640
<v Speaker 4>Valley Bank going under to actually one of our other

0:29:10.720 --> 0:29:12.800
<v Speaker 4>lenders also went under. And now this.

0:29:13.880 --> 0:29:15.680
<v Speaker 2>I think SVB was a lender for you.

0:29:16.240 --> 0:29:19.560
<v Speaker 4>Yes, we banked with sphoeb It was yeah, you know,

0:29:19.640 --> 0:29:22.520
<v Speaker 4>seventy two hours that I never hoped to experience again.

0:29:22.920 --> 0:29:26.320
<v Speaker 4>But I think what this is. I consider myself an optimist, right, Like,

0:29:26.440 --> 0:29:29.600
<v Speaker 4>why else would I be an entrepreneur, and you know,

0:29:29.680 --> 0:29:32.600
<v Speaker 4>be foolish enough to think that we are the one

0:29:32.640 --> 0:29:35.959
<v Speaker 4>percent that will somehow make it through. And yet all

0:29:36.040 --> 0:29:38.160
<v Speaker 4>these experiences over the past five years, I mean they

0:29:38.200 --> 0:29:42.560
<v Speaker 4>have hardened me. I've definitely become significantly more conservative in

0:29:43.000 --> 0:29:47.600
<v Speaker 4>all of my predictions and forecasting. And basically, you know, yes,

0:29:47.640 --> 0:29:50.360
<v Speaker 4>everyone's saying like, oh, don't worry, Tariff's gonna like come

0:29:50.400 --> 0:29:54.600
<v Speaker 4>down again, like you know, Trump's not gonna actually do it,

0:29:54.720 --> 0:29:57.000
<v Speaker 4>like they're gonna call his bluff. And I was like,

0:29:57.000 --> 0:29:59.400
<v Speaker 4>it doesn't matter. The damage has been done, like I've

0:29:59.440 --> 0:30:03.120
<v Speaker 4>already cut my costs, Like maybe maybe he'll undo it,

0:30:03.160 --> 0:30:05.080
<v Speaker 4>but then who's to say he won't do it again.

0:30:05.800 --> 0:30:09.960
<v Speaker 4>And so I've clamped down on every expenditure possible.

0:30:10.400 --> 0:30:13.320
<v Speaker 2>So on this note, you said April second, you had

0:30:13.360 --> 0:30:15.800
<v Speaker 2>just finished your business plan, Like how do you actually

0:30:15.880 --> 0:30:22.160
<v Speaker 2>incorporate this type of uncertainty into planning and hard numbers?

0:30:22.360 --> 0:30:24.840
<v Speaker 4>It's really hard. And by the way, because I still

0:30:24.840 --> 0:30:27.320
<v Speaker 4>don't actually know how much inventory we're going to receipt

0:30:27.320 --> 0:30:29.760
<v Speaker 4>for the rest of the year, right, I went as

0:30:29.800 --> 0:30:33.840
<v Speaker 4>conservatively as I thought I could without breaking the business.

0:30:33.920 --> 0:30:35.840
<v Speaker 4>And you know, when we're talking about cutting costs, like

0:30:36.120 --> 0:30:40.080
<v Speaker 4>there's no you know, people use the expression like cut fat,

0:30:40.120 --> 0:30:42.160
<v Speaker 4>like there's no fat left to cut, like I'm cutting

0:30:42.160 --> 0:30:44.800
<v Speaker 4>into the muscle. But you know, survival is the name

0:30:44.840 --> 0:30:47.000
<v Speaker 4>of the game, So that's what we're going through.

0:30:47.080 --> 0:30:50.719
<v Speaker 3>This isn't specifically terrif related, but since you mentioned it

0:30:50.920 --> 0:30:54.600
<v Speaker 3>in the earlier in the episode, I'm curious, what are

0:30:54.640 --> 0:31:00.120
<v Speaker 3>you seeing on the digital channel side. You mentioned, you know,

0:31:00.200 --> 0:31:04.840
<v Speaker 3>fighting frideballs or selling through meta and all these platforms.

0:31:05.160 --> 0:31:07.760
<v Speaker 3>What's the what's happening there that you're seeing.

0:31:09.480 --> 0:31:13.920
<v Speaker 4>Well, we got in really early into the Facebook game. Yeah,

0:31:13.960 --> 0:31:16.600
<v Speaker 4>I guess this was like we started advertising in twenty thirteen,

0:31:16.640 --> 0:31:19.960
<v Speaker 4>twenty fourteen, and like, gosh, those were the Hey days, right,

0:31:20.000 --> 0:31:23.320
<v Speaker 4>and we could acquire customers for thirteen dollars, which just

0:31:23.480 --> 0:31:25.840
<v Speaker 4>like for context, I think now it's about two hundred

0:31:25.840 --> 0:31:31.320
<v Speaker 4>and fifty dollars. That's probably understating it. It is massively

0:31:31.400 --> 0:31:36.040
<v Speaker 4>expensive and yet probably still the most effective, right, And

0:31:36.120 --> 0:31:39.240
<v Speaker 4>I think the lack of competition there is a real problem.

0:31:39.320 --> 0:31:43.880
<v Speaker 4>Like we've tried Reddit to mix success, We've tried TikTok

0:31:43.920 --> 0:31:44.720
<v Speaker 4>to mix success.

0:31:45.120 --> 0:31:45.240
<v Speaker 2>You know.

0:31:45.400 --> 0:31:48.480
<v Speaker 3>Actually another quick question, this is something I've wondered about.

0:31:48.560 --> 0:31:50.920
<v Speaker 3>I don't many of the clothes that I buy, Like

0:31:51.480 --> 0:31:55.000
<v Speaker 3>it's because I won't buy through Instagram or even buy online.

0:31:55.000 --> 0:31:57.120
<v Speaker 3>But I'll see something that gets flashed to me on

0:31:57.160 --> 0:31:58.800
<v Speaker 3>Instagram and then I'm like, oh, that's a nice shirt

0:31:58.840 --> 0:32:03.480
<v Speaker 3>or whatever. When Instagram launched it's inside shopping where you

0:32:03.520 --> 0:32:05.280
<v Speaker 3>could launch a store in Instagram, I was like, oh,

0:32:05.280 --> 0:32:07.160
<v Speaker 3>this is a great idea, just like price a button,

0:32:07.280 --> 0:32:09.560
<v Speaker 3>use Apple Pay and then I'll get it. And my

0:32:09.680 --> 0:32:12.520
<v Speaker 3>understanding is hasn't taken off, and that actually there is

0:32:12.560 --> 0:32:15.480
<v Speaker 3>not a lot of in app shopping still in Instagram.

0:32:15.480 --> 0:32:17.480
<v Speaker 3>Do you have any view insight into that.

0:32:17.640 --> 0:32:20.040
<v Speaker 4>We have not had as much success with that, But

0:32:20.120 --> 0:32:22.680
<v Speaker 4>our price points also higher, so I can't really you know,

0:32:22.800 --> 0:32:26.480
<v Speaker 4>I think if you're like buying a nine dollars hairclip,

0:32:27.840 --> 0:32:30.600
<v Speaker 4>I mean, guilty as charge, Like, I think there's more

0:32:30.640 --> 0:32:33.200
<v Speaker 4>success there. I think for something that's sitting at our

0:32:33.240 --> 0:32:36.120
<v Speaker 4>price point, it's still Yeah, I'm not going to see

0:32:36.160 --> 0:32:38.480
<v Speaker 4>instant conversion. Yeah, but it's exactly what you said.

0:32:38.680 --> 0:32:41.360
<v Speaker 2>Your clothing is not an impulse buy for sure. I

0:32:41.400 --> 0:32:44.640
<v Speaker 2>have impulse spot off Instagram and ended up with some

0:32:44.880 --> 0:32:45.840
<v Speaker 2>strange products.

0:32:46.320 --> 0:32:50.400
<v Speaker 4>Gosh, and they need they keep on mounting. Yeah, yeah,

0:32:50.680 --> 0:32:54.520
<v Speaker 4>I guess I will just say. I think, as you know,

0:32:54.600 --> 0:32:57.520
<v Speaker 4>small business owners like we can do everything right, and

0:32:57.600 --> 0:33:01.160
<v Speaker 4>I think a lot of us won't make it. That's

0:33:01.200 --> 0:33:02.760
<v Speaker 4>the truth. A lot of us will be out of

0:33:02.800 --> 0:33:06.239
<v Speaker 4>business within the next six to nine months, and I

0:33:06.280 --> 0:33:09.600
<v Speaker 4>think the consumer doesn't really understand that. I think actually

0:33:10.400 --> 0:33:13.080
<v Speaker 4>even people who are in retail, who are one layer removed.

0:33:13.080 --> 0:33:15.520
<v Speaker 4>Don't understand that. I was chatting with an executive of

0:33:15.560 --> 0:33:17.640
<v Speaker 4>a department store and he was like, well, actually, sales

0:33:17.640 --> 0:33:19.840
<v Speaker 4>have been great because everyone's rushing to get stuff, and like,

0:33:19.880 --> 0:33:21.920
<v Speaker 4>I'm sure people will work it out for the holidays.

0:33:21.920 --> 0:33:26.560
<v Speaker 4>And I don't know if people really understand how dire

0:33:26.600 --> 0:33:30.200
<v Speaker 4>it is, you know, And yes, okay, like Trump's talking

0:33:30.200 --> 0:33:32.520
<v Speaker 4>about you're going to get two stuffed animals instead of

0:33:32.560 --> 0:33:36.880
<v Speaker 4>nineteen stuffed animals. I'm like, you're getting zero. Yeah, so

0:33:37.280 --> 0:33:40.840
<v Speaker 4>my kids have enough. I mean, I know, same thought here.

0:33:41.120 --> 0:33:44.200
<v Speaker 4>But small businesses won't make it. The big businesses will

0:33:44.240 --> 0:33:45.920
<v Speaker 4>be fine, like gosh, iPhones.

0:33:47.000 --> 0:33:51.080
<v Speaker 3>No, it's actually like a really big mass clothing line

0:33:51.080 --> 0:33:54.160
<v Speaker 3>that's not as sort of nice and high quality, like

0:33:54.440 --> 0:33:59.600
<v Speaker 3>when you think about like a slightly cheaper, much larger

0:33:59.600 --> 0:34:02.680
<v Speaker 3>competitive I don't know the names. Maybe the two of

0:34:02.720 --> 0:34:05.640
<v Speaker 3>you can think of a better analog than not than

0:34:05.840 --> 0:34:08.520
<v Speaker 3>J Crew, yeah or something like that, Like what do

0:34:08.600 --> 0:34:10.920
<v Speaker 3>they you know, we just eat some of the costs

0:34:10.960 --> 0:34:14.040
<v Speaker 3>and they have distribute makers that can they have enough

0:34:14.080 --> 0:34:16.240
<v Speaker 3>scale that they can force their producers to eat costs

0:34:16.280 --> 0:34:18.120
<v Speaker 3>and just sort of you know, charge along.

0:34:18.840 --> 0:34:21.719
<v Speaker 4>You know, I think for those retailers that have enough

0:34:21.719 --> 0:34:25.279
<v Speaker 4>cash on the balance sheet. Yeah, maybe it's a risk

0:34:25.280 --> 0:34:27.080
<v Speaker 4>they're willing to take. I think the other thing that's

0:34:27.120 --> 0:34:31.680
<v Speaker 4>not understood necessarily about the tariffs is that you pay

0:34:31.800 --> 0:34:34.080
<v Speaker 4>tariffs to the government basically as soon as the goods

0:34:34.160 --> 0:34:37.600
<v Speaker 4>hit the US territory.

0:34:37.680 --> 0:34:40.879
<v Speaker 2>Right, So there's some sufficial comes and like looks at it.

0:34:40.800 --> 0:34:43.399
<v Speaker 4>And says basically, here's your own voice, pay it up, right,

0:34:43.480 --> 0:34:45.440
<v Speaker 4>and you don't get like your thirty day terms or

0:34:45.440 --> 0:34:47.759
<v Speaker 4>your sixty day terms that your factories extend to you,

0:34:48.239 --> 0:34:50.400
<v Speaker 4>because that's actually the selling window that you need to

0:34:50.400 --> 0:34:52.960
<v Speaker 4>sell your products to your customers. So it's actually a

0:34:53.040 --> 0:34:55.480
<v Speaker 4>huge cash flow problem as well. Yeah, and you're bringing

0:34:55.480 --> 0:34:58.320
<v Speaker 4>in these goods in not knowing actually if your customer

0:34:58.440 --> 0:35:02.080
<v Speaker 4>is willing to eat the price hike. So again it's

0:35:02.080 --> 0:35:06.520
<v Speaker 4>a gamble. Big apparel companies with huge cash lots of

0:35:06.560 --> 0:35:07.520
<v Speaker 4>cash on their bounce sheets.

0:35:08.120 --> 0:35:10.560
<v Speaker 3>Yes, they If you're a seller, if you're a factory

0:35:10.640 --> 0:35:14.440
<v Speaker 3>seller to a small entity in the US, you may

0:35:14.480 --> 0:35:18.080
<v Speaker 3>be reluctant to just let it ship there because you

0:35:18.160 --> 0:35:20.160
<v Speaker 3>actually don't know whether that customer is going to be

0:35:20.160 --> 0:35:21.799
<v Speaker 3>able to take delivery and pay at the very end.

0:35:21.960 --> 0:35:24.360
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, that's I think that's a real consequence. That's a

0:35:24.400 --> 0:35:27.279
<v Speaker 4>real consequence. But I think they're fighting for their survival too.

0:35:27.360 --> 0:35:29.640
<v Speaker 4>You know, they're going to take something rather than nothing.

0:35:30.040 --> 0:35:33.440
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, all right, Sarah Lafleur. It was so good catching up.

0:35:33.480 --> 0:35:36.439
<v Speaker 2>I wish it was under better circumstances, but I'm glad

0:35:36.480 --> 0:35:37.160
<v Speaker 2>we finally did that.

0:35:37.320 --> 0:35:39.600
<v Speaker 4>Thank you. This was this was a blast. Thank you guys,

0:35:39.640 --> 0:35:54.760
<v Speaker 4>Thank you so much. That was fantastic, Joe.

0:35:54.760 --> 0:35:57.279
<v Speaker 2>That was so fascinating, and I am really glad we

0:35:57.360 --> 0:35:59.360
<v Speaker 2>finally had Sarah on. It is kind of the perfect

0:35:59.400 --> 0:36:02.920
<v Speaker 2>moment to talk about the textile clothing business. I hadn't

0:36:02.960 --> 0:36:06.440
<v Speaker 2>thought of the cash flow issue of actually paying the

0:36:06.480 --> 0:36:09.719
<v Speaker 2>customs coming. I mean, obviously I knew that companies have

0:36:09.800 --> 0:36:12.960
<v Speaker 2>to pay the tariffs as things actually come in at

0:36:13.000 --> 0:36:17.040
<v Speaker 2>the ports, but the issue of like the discrepancy between

0:36:17.080 --> 0:36:20.160
<v Speaker 2>your selling window and when you actually have to pay

0:36:20.520 --> 0:36:22.920
<v Speaker 2>that extra tax. I hadn't thought of that.

0:36:23.120 --> 0:36:25.680
<v Speaker 3>No, there's all sorts of I mean, there's all sorts

0:36:25.680 --> 0:36:29.920
<v Speaker 3>of wrinkles. No pun intended that the tariffs are creating.

0:36:30.320 --> 0:36:34.399
<v Speaker 3>I really liked that episode because, look, we could talk

0:36:34.440 --> 0:36:38.520
<v Speaker 3>to economists all day long about shortages coming or higher prices.

0:36:39.000 --> 0:36:40.680
<v Speaker 3>So it's helpful to hear from someone.

0:36:40.560 --> 0:36:43.000
<v Speaker 2>In business actually dealing. Actually, yes, all.

0:36:42.880 --> 0:36:46.080
<v Speaker 3>Those things that economists are talking about are very real.

0:36:46.440 --> 0:36:49.319
<v Speaker 3>You know, so much in there that was interesting, you know,

0:36:49.560 --> 0:36:52.120
<v Speaker 3>starting on that last point that you mentioned, you know, again,

0:36:52.320 --> 0:36:56.160
<v Speaker 3>a big retailer, like a J crew, they're going to

0:36:56.200 --> 0:36:59.240
<v Speaker 3>have an easier time sort of smoothing out their cash flows,

0:36:59.280 --> 0:37:02.680
<v Speaker 3>taking a ri making a bet, ordering a line than

0:37:02.719 --> 0:37:05.920
<v Speaker 3>a company that's just you know, quarter to quarter for

0:37:05.960 --> 0:37:06.560
<v Speaker 3>its survival.

0:37:06.840 --> 0:37:09.160
<v Speaker 2>This seems to be a recurring theme in a lot

0:37:09.160 --> 0:37:11.440
<v Speaker 2>of these tariff episodes, right, so we heard it in

0:37:11.520 --> 0:37:15.839
<v Speaker 2>the gaming industry episode. The smaller players seem like they're

0:37:15.840 --> 0:37:19.200
<v Speaker 2>suffering or will suffer a lot more than the big guys.

0:37:19.280 --> 0:37:22.080
<v Speaker 2>And then when we spoke to the Lentil King of Saskatchewan,

0:37:22.160 --> 0:37:25.239
<v Speaker 2>he seemed, you know, he was kind of sanguine about

0:37:25.280 --> 0:37:28.160
<v Speaker 2>the whole thing. I guess because he's the biggest Lentil

0:37:28.200 --> 0:37:29.080
<v Speaker 2>player out there.

0:37:29.600 --> 0:37:32.520
<v Speaker 3>Yes, And the fact that it sounds like for AG,

0:37:32.600 --> 0:37:35.160
<v Speaker 3>the idea of like small AG has sort of been

0:37:35.360 --> 0:37:36.960
<v Speaker 3>disappearing for a while. I mean, what do you say

0:37:37.040 --> 0:37:40.680
<v Speaker 3>he's at a family farm at this point in Saskatchewan

0:37:40.719 --> 0:37:43.960
<v Speaker 3>means having three hundred thousand acres, which you know is

0:37:44.000 --> 0:37:49.520
<v Speaker 3>not my conception of a little family farm. But then also, obviously,

0:37:49.880 --> 0:37:52.839
<v Speaker 3>I guess I was surprised a little bit that there

0:37:53.000 --> 0:37:56.719
<v Speaker 3>isn't more capacity or market depth in some of these

0:37:56.760 --> 0:37:59.640
<v Speaker 3>non China countries like a Vietnam, like a Philippines, like

0:37:59.640 --> 0:38:04.040
<v Speaker 3>a Kim so forth for the types of sewing and

0:38:04.080 --> 0:38:07.359
<v Speaker 3>cutting that's necessary at this level. And so even at

0:38:07.400 --> 0:38:11.040
<v Speaker 3>this point for something like clothes, and granted Sarah makes

0:38:11.320 --> 0:38:14.120
<v Speaker 3>nice high end clothes, that is sort of still China

0:38:14.239 --> 0:38:14.680
<v Speaker 3>or nowhere.

0:38:14.960 --> 0:38:18.480
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, And I guess this is the other theme that

0:38:18.560 --> 0:38:22.239
<v Speaker 2>keeps coming through that it's just going to be very

0:38:22.360 --> 0:38:25.560
<v Speaker 2>very hard, slash impossible to try to build up that

0:38:25.600 --> 0:38:28.840
<v Speaker 2>capacity and expertise in the US. And there's there's no

0:38:28.920 --> 0:38:32.320
<v Speaker 2>way anyone's going to open, like I don't know, start

0:38:32.360 --> 0:38:35.719
<v Speaker 2>growing mulberry trees and farming silkworms in the next six

0:38:35.800 --> 0:38:39.040
<v Speaker 2>months or something like that. So, yeah, buying your silk

0:38:39.120 --> 0:38:43.200
<v Speaker 2>now for Christmas? Useful bit of advice, Yes, all right, Shall.

0:38:43.040 --> 0:38:45.520
<v Speaker 3>We leave nobody say that there is not useful advice

0:38:45.560 --> 0:38:46.120
<v Speaker 3>on outlock.

0:38:46.400 --> 0:38:48.279
<v Speaker 2>That's right. Shall we leave it there?

0:38:48.320 --> 0:38:49.040
<v Speaker 3>Let's leave it there.

0:38:49.200 --> 0:38:51.600
<v Speaker 2>This has been another episode of the Odd Thoughts podcast.

0:38:51.760 --> 0:38:54.680
<v Speaker 2>I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway.

0:38:54.800 --> 0:38:57.960
<v Speaker 3>And I'm Joe Wisenthal. You can follow me at The Stalwart.

0:38:58.280 --> 0:39:02.360
<v Speaker 3>Follow Sarah Lafleur, She's at sm Lafleur. Follow our producers

0:39:02.400 --> 0:39:05.640
<v Speaker 3>Kerman Rodriguez at Carman armand dash Ol Bennett at Dashbot

0:39:05.640 --> 0:39:08.719
<v Speaker 3>at Kilbrooks at Kilbrooks. For more odd Loots content, go

0:39:08.760 --> 0:39:10.920
<v Speaker 3>to Bloomberg dot com slash odd Lots, where we have

0:39:10.960 --> 0:39:14.239
<v Speaker 3>a daily newsletter and all of our episodes and you

0:39:14.280 --> 0:39:16.759
<v Speaker 3>can You should check out our discord where people are

0:39:16.760 --> 0:39:19.759
<v Speaker 3>talking about these topics twenty four to seven. That's discord

0:39:19.800 --> 0:39:21.600
<v Speaker 3>dot gg slash od Lots.

0:39:21.920 --> 0:39:24.520
<v Speaker 2>And if you enjoy odd Lots, if you like it

0:39:24.560 --> 0:39:27.680
<v Speaker 2>when we talk to actual businesses that are dealing with

0:39:27.719 --> 0:39:30.840
<v Speaker 2>the tariffs right now, then please leave us a positive

0:39:30.880 --> 0:39:34.160
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0:39:34.239 --> 0:39:36.759
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