1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:03,760 Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:15,040 Speaker 1: read enough? They're running again, so smooth, so sweet, slipid sixteen, 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:17,440 Speaker 1: just glorious execution. 4 00:00:18,239 --> 00:00:21,160 Speaker 2: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four 5 00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:22,520 Speaker 2: thousand percent of the time. 6 00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:24,239 Speaker 3: How shot with that? 7 00:00:24,600 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 2: Shop with mind? 8 00:00:25,480 --> 00:00:29,440 Speaker 4: Good buddy, and that's why you see your beautiful tiers. 9 00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:31,360 Speaker 2: Look at his movements, the most. 10 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:32,280 Speaker 3: Dangerous amount of the planet. 11 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:33,040 Speaker 2: Nobody picks them. 12 00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:38,680 Speaker 4: Shut up, I'm trying. 13 00:00:40,400 --> 00:00:42,400 Speaker 2: Again the love. 14 00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:43,320 Speaker 3: It's left to. 15 00:00:43,440 --> 00:00:49,040 Speaker 1: One the wide eyed drill bibews how old Earth pick 16 00:00:49,159 --> 00:00:50,080 Speaker 1: that happens? 17 00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:55,280 Speaker 3: Hello, and welcome back to Wonder Goal, the soccer betting 18 00:00:55,320 --> 00:00:59,920 Speaker 3: podcast from the Action Network. I'm Anthony Dubundo, joined as 19 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:03,440 Speaker 3: always by BJ Cunningham. Michael Leeboff is out sick tonight. 20 00:01:03,880 --> 00:01:05,960 Speaker 3: He just really didn't want to talk about the Fortress 21 00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:08,200 Speaker 3: and the big matchup coming up this weekend for my 22 00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:12,479 Speaker 3: Reds against Manchester City, and that is the highlight match 23 00:01:12,480 --> 00:01:14,560 Speaker 3: of the weekend, the highlight match really. I think to 24 00:01:14,600 --> 00:01:18,920 Speaker 3: this point in the season, we've got two huge matchups left. 25 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:22,080 Speaker 3: We've got Liverpool City, We've got City Arsenal coming up 26 00:01:22,080 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 3: at the end of March, right after the international break 27 00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:29,680 Speaker 3: and those two matches are the title leverage deciders at 28 00:01:29,680 --> 00:01:32,440 Speaker 3: this point, and that's where, you know, with eleven matches 29 00:01:32,480 --> 00:01:34,880 Speaker 3: to go and three teams playing at an unreal level 30 00:01:35,240 --> 00:01:37,880 Speaker 3: in the last you know, two to three months, that's 31 00:01:38,040 --> 00:01:41,520 Speaker 3: probably where the title gets decided. And we have a 32 00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:44,520 Speaker 3: lot to talk about. So before we get into Liverpool City, 33 00:01:44,640 --> 00:01:47,440 Speaker 3: the quote unquote game of the Year, remember that wonder 34 00:01:47,440 --> 00:01:49,520 Speaker 3: goal is presented by Bet three sixty five. Bet three 35 00:01:49,520 --> 00:01:51,800 Speaker 3: sixty five doesn't do ordinary. That's why you get more 36 00:01:51,840 --> 00:01:54,480 Speaker 3: boosts with them than anyone else. Every day they power 37 00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:56,240 Speaker 3: up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you 38 00:01:56,280 --> 00:01:58,720 Speaker 3: a chance to win more. Bet three sixty five boost 39 00:01:58,720 --> 00:02:02,480 Speaker 3: specific markets, winnings and even parlays, and they don't stop there. 40 00:02:02,760 --> 00:02:04,640 Speaker 3: Keep an eye out for the biggest and bets best 41 00:02:04,680 --> 00:02:08,400 Speaker 3: odds with the incredible super boost. Check out those boosts 42 00:02:08,480 --> 00:02:10,919 Speaker 3: and see why it's never ordinary. At Bet three sixty 43 00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:14,080 Speaker 3: five disclaiming you must be twenty one or in older 44 00:02:14,960 --> 00:02:19,560 Speaker 3: and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, New Jersey, Ohio, 45 00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:23,679 Speaker 3: and Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem 46 00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:26,280 Speaker 3: Call one one hundred gambler or one hundred bets off 47 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:32,120 Speaker 3: in Iowa terms. Conditions and restrictions apply. BJ your team 48 00:02:32,160 --> 00:02:34,679 Speaker 3: is sitting this one out, the first of the two 49 00:02:35,040 --> 00:02:39,000 Speaker 3: title we'll call the title Darby's. Some are saying Liverpool 50 00:02:39,040 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 3: City is the best current rivalry in the PREM. I 51 00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:43,760 Speaker 3: tend to agree just based on how competitive and interesting 52 00:02:43,800 --> 00:02:45,680 Speaker 3: the matches have been the last four to five years. 53 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:49,800 Speaker 3: City is a slight road favorite. We are pretty confident. 54 00:02:49,800 --> 00:02:51,560 Speaker 3: We were just talking before we hit record on this. 55 00:02:52,080 --> 00:02:54,240 Speaker 3: We know what City is going to look like in 56 00:02:54,320 --> 00:02:57,560 Speaker 3: terms of personnel and who's available. We kind of don't 57 00:02:57,600 --> 00:03:00,280 Speaker 3: know what the status of Liverpool is. We assume noon 58 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:05,240 Speaker 3: y As will start. They're taking Sola to Prague on Thursday, 59 00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:07,480 Speaker 3: so you know, maybe he plays a little bit off 60 00:03:07,520 --> 00:03:10,200 Speaker 3: the bench to get his fitness back and then you know, 61 00:03:10,320 --> 00:03:12,280 Speaker 3: is he available for a full game or just forty 62 00:03:12,280 --> 00:03:16,119 Speaker 3: five minutes on Sunday. There's a lot of questions as 63 00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:19,200 Speaker 3: to what the team looks like. Meanwhile, they also are 64 00:03:19,280 --> 00:03:21,880 Speaker 3: traveling have one fewer day to get ready for this. 65 00:03:21,919 --> 00:03:25,840 Speaker 3: Compared to City, who played a very rotated team against Copenhagen, 66 00:03:25,919 --> 00:03:27,840 Speaker 3: it was pretty much a walk of a Champions League 67 00:03:27,840 --> 00:03:31,240 Speaker 3: match on Wednesday. The betting odds for this match before 68 00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:33,280 Speaker 3: we get into that, though, I guess we could just 69 00:03:33,320 --> 00:03:35,880 Speaker 3: do the title odds. So currently at bet three sixty 70 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:39,880 Speaker 3: five man City minus one twenty Liverpool plus two ten 71 00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:43,520 Speaker 3: Arsenal three to one BJ, you're holding I think a 72 00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:45,200 Speaker 3: couple of Arsenal tickets at better than. 73 00:03:45,280 --> 00:03:47,360 Speaker 2: I might be holding some more after this weekend. 74 00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:52,400 Speaker 3: Certainly, I think you're gonna just keep buying Arsenal tickets. 75 00:03:52,400 --> 00:03:56,760 Speaker 3: And look, they're playing great right now. They waxed Big 76 00:03:56,840 --> 00:04:00,480 Speaker 3: mighty Sheffield United last weekend, so they're feeling good about themselves. 77 00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:02,080 Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean, those are the betting odds right now, 78 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:04,600 Speaker 3: and if you take out the big it's like forty 79 00:04:04,680 --> 00:04:09,080 Speaker 3: nine percent City twenty eight percent Liverpool twenty two percent Arsenal. 80 00:04:09,680 --> 00:04:12,080 Speaker 3: If I guess the best result for Arsenal is probably 81 00:04:12,120 --> 00:04:12,440 Speaker 3: a draw. 82 00:04:12,680 --> 00:04:14,880 Speaker 4: Yep, are you reading for Liverpool draw is the best result? 83 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:15,440 Speaker 2: Right? 84 00:04:15,800 --> 00:04:17,680 Speaker 3: I think as a neutral, I'm also rooting for a 85 00:04:17,760 --> 00:04:21,040 Speaker 3: draw from a you know, this will create the best 86 00:04:21,080 --> 00:04:25,159 Speaker 3: title race, although I do think given the injury situation, 87 00:04:25,200 --> 00:04:28,520 Speaker 3: maybe Liverpool needs the win more so than City. But 88 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:32,159 Speaker 3: either way, this match really is more about not losing 89 00:04:32,240 --> 00:04:34,640 Speaker 3: than winning for both teams, and I think that's kind 90 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:37,400 Speaker 3: of the angle you need to take coming into it, 91 00:04:37,480 --> 00:04:40,599 Speaker 3: because you know, so often the PREM this year and 92 00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:42,960 Speaker 3: especially these big matches have ended up being very high 93 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:45,800 Speaker 3: scoring and the total sitting right around three two five, 94 00:04:46,040 --> 00:04:48,240 Speaker 3: so three and a quarter a little over three. I 95 00:04:48,320 --> 00:04:51,120 Speaker 3: have it right on three, and I'm tempted to bet 96 00:04:51,160 --> 00:04:53,720 Speaker 3: the under, but again, you know, we've watched this Prem 97 00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:56,440 Speaker 3: all year and Mosala, how many minutes they get out 98 00:04:56,440 --> 00:04:58,320 Speaker 3: of him is a huge part of you know, how 99 00:04:58,360 --> 00:05:00,159 Speaker 3: good is the Liverpool attack going to be? Because we 100 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:01,880 Speaker 3: saw this first meeting at the EETI had. It was 101 00:05:01,880 --> 00:05:04,400 Speaker 3: an early kickoff. Most people probably didn't even watch it 102 00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:06,960 Speaker 3: because it was a seven thirty Eastern time kick. It 103 00:05:07,000 --> 00:05:08,920 Speaker 3: was a dead game. I mean City created about one 104 00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:12,560 Speaker 3: point one xg Liverpool point six. City led for most 105 00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:14,920 Speaker 3: of it. Liverpool really couldn't get their feet into it. 106 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 3: And that was the front three of what I thought 107 00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:19,320 Speaker 3: was their best front three, that was the Nunez Sala 108 00:05:19,440 --> 00:05:22,479 Speaker 3: Jotta front three, and they didn't do much of anything. 109 00:05:22,520 --> 00:05:25,200 Speaker 3: Trent had a great goal from twenty five yards into 110 00:05:25,200 --> 00:05:28,040 Speaker 3: the corner to equalize and get a draw on the road. 111 00:05:28,040 --> 00:05:30,000 Speaker 3: But they were not particularly good in that match. It 112 00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:33,320 Speaker 3: was their second worst attacking showing of the season. And so, 113 00:05:34,080 --> 00:05:37,640 Speaker 3: you know, can Liverpool ratchet up the pressure more at anfield? 114 00:05:37,640 --> 00:05:38,720 Speaker 3: I think that's the biggest question. 115 00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:41,840 Speaker 4: I agree, and that is what it comes down to here, 116 00:05:41,920 --> 00:05:45,120 Speaker 4: is is Liverpool because obviously they've been playing really well lately, 117 00:05:45,839 --> 00:05:48,119 Speaker 4: obviously gone through some injuries. But when they were playing 118 00:05:48,120 --> 00:05:50,200 Speaker 4: at their best, it was when they were back to 119 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:54,800 Speaker 4: heavy metal football, pressing high, causing problems. You know, for 120 00:05:54,839 --> 00:05:57,000 Speaker 4: the first stretch of the season, and the City match 121 00:05:57,080 --> 00:06:00,800 Speaker 4: was included in it, they didn't really have a midfield 122 00:06:00,800 --> 00:06:03,240 Speaker 4: in terms of ball winning that they could press with that. 123 00:06:03,920 --> 00:06:07,479 Speaker 4: Then Wataro Endo comes into the team, Graven Burt comes 124 00:06:07,480 --> 00:06:09,479 Speaker 4: into the team, and suddenly they do have ball winning 125 00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:11,200 Speaker 4: in the midfield and they can press high and they 126 00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:13,840 Speaker 4: can cause problems. And they did that. You know, since 127 00:06:13,920 --> 00:06:16,280 Speaker 4: the beginning of December. They have the best pass per 128 00:06:16,320 --> 00:06:18,240 Speaker 4: defensive action in the Premier League. It just goes to 129 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:21,240 Speaker 4: show you how more aggressive they've been. I don't think 130 00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:24,080 Speaker 4: that's the best approach given the personnel they have available 131 00:06:24,120 --> 00:06:28,640 Speaker 4: for this match right here. You know, the midfield's gonna 132 00:06:28,640 --> 00:06:31,560 Speaker 4: be fine quite frankly, because Endo and Silva Slide will 133 00:06:31,600 --> 00:06:34,520 Speaker 4: be healthy. McAllister will probably start in the midfield. There 134 00:06:34,800 --> 00:06:37,480 Speaker 4: no trend obviously for Liverpool, so it's probably gonna be 135 00:06:37,480 --> 00:06:40,479 Speaker 4: Coonra Bradley playing out a right back. That's a little 136 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:42,960 Speaker 4: concerning for me because you know that is a player 137 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:43,880 Speaker 4: of the pitch that City. 138 00:06:43,760 --> 00:06:45,479 Speaker 2: Kept targeting in the previous meetings. 139 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:49,080 Speaker 4: So City, I mean, we've we've been over this like 140 00:06:49,160 --> 00:06:51,520 Speaker 4: what a thousand times, Like they want to play through 141 00:06:51,520 --> 00:06:52,919 Speaker 4: the middle of the pitch and they are going to 142 00:06:52,960 --> 00:06:55,640 Speaker 4: try to do that in this match as well. What 143 00:06:55,680 --> 00:06:58,400 Speaker 4: they did in the previous match is Edison came out 144 00:06:58,440 --> 00:07:00,680 Speaker 4: as a plus one and build up like left center back. 145 00:07:00,800 --> 00:07:04,080 Speaker 4: So that allowed them to have a nu miracle superiority 146 00:07:04,080 --> 00:07:05,640 Speaker 4: when they did try to build up, and it actually 147 00:07:05,640 --> 00:07:08,160 Speaker 4: caused Liverpool quite a few problems and allowed City to 148 00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:10,360 Speaker 4: kind of dominate the match. They did pretty a lot 149 00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:13,400 Speaker 4: of success playing through the middle once they got through the. 150 00:07:13,320 --> 00:07:15,000 Speaker 2: First and second phase of the pressure. 151 00:07:14,720 --> 00:07:16,280 Speaker 4: Though a lot of the times the ball went out 152 00:07:16,280 --> 00:07:18,800 Speaker 4: wide to Doku and let it just got him in 153 00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:21,960 Speaker 4: one on one situations against Trent. For the match, forty 154 00:07:22,000 --> 00:07:24,760 Speaker 4: two percent of Cities attacks came from the left side 155 00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:27,160 Speaker 4: of the pitch, and Doku had the third most touches 156 00:07:27,200 --> 00:07:29,240 Speaker 4: of anybody on City, which is kind of crazy when 157 00:07:29,280 --> 00:07:32,800 Speaker 4: you think about how oftentimes you know, Rodri and Ekanji 158 00:07:33,000 --> 00:07:38,520 Speaker 4: and Silva touched the ball. So it's kind of where 159 00:07:38,560 --> 00:07:40,240 Speaker 4: I'm going in this one because I you know, I 160 00:07:40,280 --> 00:07:42,200 Speaker 4: agree with you. If anything, I would be looking at 161 00:07:42,200 --> 00:07:44,240 Speaker 4: an under here because I do think Liverpool is going 162 00:07:44,240 --> 00:07:44,920 Speaker 4: to play passive. 163 00:07:45,000 --> 00:07:46,560 Speaker 2: I don't think there's They. 164 00:07:46,520 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 4: Might pick their spots to try and press, but it's 165 00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:51,880 Speaker 4: not their best interest to do so, and given the 166 00:07:51,880 --> 00:07:53,840 Speaker 4: way they actually kind of stifled City in terms of 167 00:07:53,960 --> 00:07:56,800 Speaker 4: limiting their chance creation in the last meeting, I think 168 00:07:56,800 --> 00:07:58,680 Speaker 4: it's of their best interest to play more passive cut 169 00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:02,320 Speaker 4: off the middle of the pitch. But Doku kept getting 170 00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:05,360 Speaker 4: in one on ones versus Trent, and in that he'd 171 00:08:05,360 --> 00:08:09,360 Speaker 4: attempted seventeen dribbles and completed twelve of them. He went 172 00:08:09,400 --> 00:08:12,240 Speaker 4: past Trent numerous times and was able to create chances 173 00:08:12,240 --> 00:08:14,760 Speaker 4: with in swinging balls up through the left, cutbacks to 174 00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:18,160 Speaker 4: Hollands to Silva. That is where City was at their best. 175 00:08:18,840 --> 00:08:21,280 Speaker 4: So that's what kind of leads me in the direction 176 00:08:21,360 --> 00:08:23,480 Speaker 4: of where I'm going here is I act one of 177 00:08:23,520 --> 00:08:25,280 Speaker 4: the bets I like here is actually a prop bet 178 00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:28,120 Speaker 4: for this match, because I have City projected at plus 179 00:08:28,160 --> 00:08:30,200 Speaker 4: one thirty three. You know, I have the total closer 180 00:08:30,240 --> 00:08:33,160 Speaker 4: to three. So I'm not in anywhere in terms of 181 00:08:33,200 --> 00:08:36,680 Speaker 4: actually betting this match. I like Doku anytime assists plus 182 00:08:36,720 --> 00:08:39,199 Speaker 4: three fifty if he starts. You know, Oscar Bob started 183 00:08:39,200 --> 00:08:42,120 Speaker 4: today against Copenhagen, so I would my guess has had 184 00:08:42,120 --> 00:08:44,520 Speaker 4: the success that they had with Doku in the previous meeting, 185 00:08:44,720 --> 00:08:47,760 Speaker 4: that he will start on the left. So that's really 186 00:08:47,760 --> 00:08:49,760 Speaker 4: the only area I can go with this one. Yeah, 187 00:08:49,800 --> 00:08:52,920 Speaker 4: it really kind of depends if Solid does play. You know, 188 00:08:53,840 --> 00:08:55,439 Speaker 4: it obviously makes I kind of hope it does a 189 00:08:55,520 --> 00:08:58,080 Speaker 4: lot better and a lot better in transition, which is 190 00:08:58,080 --> 00:08:59,600 Speaker 4: how Liverpool is going to have to play in this match, 191 00:08:59,640 --> 00:09:02,240 Speaker 4: and how they were successful in the previous match in City. 192 00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:04,200 Speaker 4: Although didn't created a lot of chances, a lot of 193 00:09:04,200 --> 00:09:07,400 Speaker 4: times they sucked City in and they sucked you know, 194 00:09:07,480 --> 00:09:09,400 Speaker 4: a cut. Now it's going to be Stones instead of 195 00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:12,679 Speaker 4: a kanji playing the role thelunkside rodri and a lot 196 00:09:12,720 --> 00:09:14,680 Speaker 4: of times the kanji got sucked in to the last 197 00:09:14,720 --> 00:09:17,720 Speaker 4: line and trying to like overload Liverpool, and so Liverpool 198 00:09:17,760 --> 00:09:19,440 Speaker 4: a lot of times got in three v three is 199 00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:22,200 Speaker 4: going in transition, and so when you have Nunyas and 200 00:09:22,240 --> 00:09:25,199 Speaker 4: you have Sala, it's a lot more dangerous than Nunez 201 00:09:25,679 --> 00:09:29,199 Speaker 4: and Harvey Elliotts. So it really depends if you want 202 00:09:29,200 --> 00:09:31,600 Speaker 4: to bet Liverpool. I think if Sola plays quite frankly, 203 00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:35,640 Speaker 4: but I think the number's right. So doku anytime assists 204 00:09:35,640 --> 00:09:37,200 Speaker 4: because I know, you know people are going to watch 205 00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:38,480 Speaker 4: this match, they want to bet this match. 206 00:09:38,880 --> 00:09:41,720 Speaker 2: So doku anytime assists plus three fifty. 207 00:09:41,520 --> 00:09:43,200 Speaker 4: As he starts is really the only thing that I've 208 00:09:43,240 --> 00:09:44,560 Speaker 4: looked at that I like. 209 00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:46,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, So I think you kind of saw it in 210 00:09:46,960 --> 00:09:50,040 Speaker 3: the United match too, like how easy it was for 211 00:09:50,240 --> 00:09:52,240 Speaker 3: City to progress the ball through the middle pass a 212 00:09:52,280 --> 00:09:56,040 Speaker 3: doku and then doku or foden depending on you know 213 00:09:56,080 --> 00:09:58,480 Speaker 3: where Debruna went with it in Silva. It was very 214 00:09:58,480 --> 00:10:01,400 Speaker 3: easy for them, And I think there's some interesting things 215 00:10:01,440 --> 00:10:02,880 Speaker 3: that have kind of tweaked under the hood. Because we 216 00:10:02,920 --> 00:10:05,800 Speaker 3: talked about City. I think the biggest thing with City 217 00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:07,960 Speaker 3: has been that their defense hasn't been as aggressive, they 218 00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:09,960 Speaker 3: have not pressed as high, they have not won the 219 00:10:09,960 --> 00:10:12,920 Speaker 3: ball as much. I mean Luton Town has a lower 220 00:10:13,000 --> 00:10:16,319 Speaker 3: build up completion percentage allowed than City this year. That's 221 00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:18,880 Speaker 3: that's just like a sign of just how aggressive Luton's been, 222 00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:21,840 Speaker 3: but also how passive City is. So you can possess 223 00:10:21,840 --> 00:10:25,079 Speaker 3: the ball against this City team. And I think we 224 00:10:25,120 --> 00:10:27,240 Speaker 3: saw in the Chelsea match when they played more of 225 00:10:27,280 --> 00:10:30,040 Speaker 3: the four to one, four to one, where we said 226 00:10:30,080 --> 00:10:32,360 Speaker 3: before that match, like Silva's not playing, it's going to 227 00:10:32,440 --> 00:10:34,880 Speaker 3: be the overly aggressive team that you know. They're the 228 00:10:34,880 --> 00:10:36,800 Speaker 3: one they played against Brentford in the first matchup, the 229 00:10:36,800 --> 00:10:39,880 Speaker 3: one they played against City against Chelsea was the four 230 00:10:39,880 --> 00:10:42,480 Speaker 3: to one four one without a ton of defensive midfield 231 00:10:42,520 --> 00:10:44,640 Speaker 3: ball winning outside of Rodri just putting it all on him. 232 00:10:45,120 --> 00:10:48,240 Speaker 3: But now it's different because they're playing again the three 233 00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:51,000 Speaker 3: two two three that made them so dominant last year, 234 00:10:51,040 --> 00:10:53,160 Speaker 3: and the pieces are a little bit different. It's not Grealish, 235 00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:55,720 Speaker 3: it's Doku right now because Grealish is hurt. It's not Marez, 236 00:10:55,720 --> 00:10:58,000 Speaker 3: it's Foden who's playing those minutes out wide for them. 237 00:10:58,679 --> 00:11:02,320 Speaker 3: But it's the same principle where it's Rodri and Stones 238 00:11:02,760 --> 00:11:05,400 Speaker 3: sit and basically form a wall in front of the 239 00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:07,760 Speaker 3: back three that they play. Kyle Walker has so much 240 00:11:07,760 --> 00:11:09,880 Speaker 3: pace that he can make it work, and then they 241 00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:12,360 Speaker 3: have you know, a Kanji and Diaz is the other 242 00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:16,920 Speaker 3: two wingbacks, and then Rodri can have some freedom to 243 00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:18,679 Speaker 3: get forward, but he doesn't need to, and how much 244 00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:20,719 Speaker 3: he goes forward kind of determines how aggressive they are. 245 00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:22,840 Speaker 3: And then it's just like, oh, yeah, we have Kevin Debrna, 246 00:11:23,440 --> 00:11:26,840 Speaker 3: Phil Foden and Erling Holland, like they'll figure it out. 247 00:11:27,200 --> 00:11:30,040 Speaker 3: And then Doku's the outlet and it's what turned them 248 00:11:30,040 --> 00:11:32,320 Speaker 3: into a supernova last year that nobody could beat and 249 00:11:32,320 --> 00:11:33,800 Speaker 3: that's why they won the Treble. That's where they wont 250 00:11:33,840 --> 00:11:36,520 Speaker 3: every match coming in. And you know, I think we've 251 00:11:36,640 --> 00:11:38,760 Speaker 3: kind of on this show maybe poo Poot City a 252 00:11:38,760 --> 00:11:41,040 Speaker 3: little bit. We've said, like what has gone wrong for 253 00:11:41,080 --> 00:11:43,240 Speaker 3: them where they're maybe not quite as good, but they've 254 00:11:43,280 --> 00:11:46,520 Speaker 3: won thirteen games and drawn one since coming back from 255 00:11:46,520 --> 00:11:48,640 Speaker 3: the Color World Cup. Like this is a team that 256 00:11:48,720 --> 00:11:51,400 Speaker 3: has put on an unreal run. That's not the discredit 257 00:11:51,480 --> 00:11:54,320 Speaker 3: Liverpool because Liverpool has one loss in that same timeframe. 258 00:11:54,840 --> 00:11:57,079 Speaker 3: They've been dominant too. And like you said, I think 259 00:11:57,080 --> 00:12:00,480 Speaker 3: the biggest thing is like we wondered could Liverpool keep 260 00:12:00,520 --> 00:12:02,440 Speaker 3: up the pressure and win the ball high and be 261 00:12:02,520 --> 00:12:04,640 Speaker 3: good enough in midfield given all the turnover and the 262 00:12:04,760 --> 00:12:08,040 Speaker 3: lack of depth and really all the injuries. They're number 263 00:12:08,080 --> 00:12:11,360 Speaker 3: one in pass per defensive action, number one in preventing 264 00:12:11,400 --> 00:12:14,240 Speaker 3: opponent build up. So it's a Liverpool team that you 265 00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:17,400 Speaker 3: know at anfield. We've talked about this with Arsenal. Arsenal 266 00:12:17,440 --> 00:12:21,080 Speaker 3: who's looked great, you know, coming in here. Probably the 267 00:12:21,160 --> 00:12:23,320 Speaker 3: other than the Fulham match, probably the I guess the 268 00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:25,160 Speaker 3: Porto match, So they had a couple of pickups, but 269 00:12:25,880 --> 00:12:27,959 Speaker 3: when they went to anfield, that was the only time 270 00:12:28,040 --> 00:12:31,280 Speaker 3: where I've seen Arsenal truly unable to keep pressure, keep 271 00:12:31,280 --> 00:12:34,320 Speaker 3: the ball under pressure. So you know, we've seen the 272 00:12:34,320 --> 00:12:36,600 Speaker 3: City team do this time and time again. I am 273 00:12:36,640 --> 00:12:39,120 Speaker 3: closer personally to playing City than I am Liverpool, just 274 00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:41,400 Speaker 3: because I think there are more cracks in Liverpool if 275 00:12:41,440 --> 00:12:43,480 Speaker 3: you look at their underline numbers and if you look 276 00:12:43,480 --> 00:12:45,960 Speaker 3: at the current situation, you know, most solid maybe comes 277 00:12:45,960 --> 00:12:49,400 Speaker 3: in and Liverpool takes money. I would be okay waiting 278 00:12:49,480 --> 00:12:52,640 Speaker 3: and hoping for that and then taking a City against 279 00:12:52,720 --> 00:12:54,400 Speaker 3: Liverpool if I can get like a pick minus one 280 00:12:54,440 --> 00:12:56,800 Speaker 3: twenty one, twenty five. I think I would take it 281 00:12:56,880 --> 00:12:59,440 Speaker 3: just because I do think that, like we're at City 282 00:12:59,480 --> 00:13:02,520 Speaker 3: with theirs that's eleven available, and when that's been the 283 00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:05,920 Speaker 3: case for the last two years, nobody can really touch 284 00:13:05,960 --> 00:13:08,920 Speaker 3: them well and and and so I know it's at anfield, 285 00:13:08,920 --> 00:13:10,560 Speaker 3: I know it's the fortress. It's a place where, like 286 00:13:10,600 --> 00:13:12,800 Speaker 3: I have said, I never want to bet against Liverpool. 287 00:13:12,840 --> 00:13:16,560 Speaker 3: I think I've done it once all year, maybe twice, 288 00:13:17,160 --> 00:13:21,720 Speaker 3: and it was usually like its an inflated favorite. So 289 00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:27,920 Speaker 3: it's crazy to say it, but you know, I'm closer 290 00:13:27,920 --> 00:13:29,360 Speaker 3: to City than I am to Liverpool just because I 291 00:13:29,360 --> 00:13:32,400 Speaker 3: trust their defense more given that they have their best alignment. 292 00:13:32,440 --> 00:13:34,800 Speaker 3: You know, Silva I think is their most underrated player 293 00:13:34,800 --> 00:13:37,360 Speaker 3: in the system and Stones and those two guys give 294 00:13:37,400 --> 00:13:39,920 Speaker 3: them so much more solid solidity compared to like a 295 00:13:40,040 --> 00:13:43,440 Speaker 3: Kanji in that role or when it's Alvarez instead of Silva. 296 00:13:44,679 --> 00:13:44,920 Speaker 2: Yeah. 297 00:13:45,080 --> 00:13:47,520 Speaker 4: One more thing I'll just mention is that, you know 298 00:13:48,520 --> 00:13:50,840 Speaker 4: why these matches are so huge obviously in the Tata 299 00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:53,960 Speaker 4: race and everything like that, is the Premier League is 300 00:13:54,000 --> 00:13:57,240 Speaker 4: incredibly top heavy this year with the top three right. 301 00:13:57,440 --> 00:13:57,680 Speaker 3: So. 302 00:13:59,559 --> 00:14:01,840 Speaker 4: It's hard for us to say, oh my gosh, City 303 00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:04,680 Speaker 4: has won you know, thirteen of the last fourteen matches. 304 00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:08,199 Speaker 4: That's great, Okay, well, what's happened when they played Arsenal? 305 00:14:08,240 --> 00:14:10,280 Speaker 4: What happened when they played Liverpool? Like, yes, they were 306 00:14:10,280 --> 00:14:12,480 Speaker 4: a little bit better than Liverpool in that previous match. 307 00:14:12,760 --> 00:14:15,480 Speaker 4: The Arsenal match was the famous nobody wants to make 308 00:14:15,520 --> 00:14:16,880 Speaker 4: a mistake match and Arsenal. 309 00:14:16,760 --> 00:14:20,480 Speaker 3: Ye should have ended negative one to negative one exactly. 310 00:14:21,080 --> 00:14:24,040 Speaker 4: And then you just look at Liverpool. Yes, at anfield, 311 00:14:24,160 --> 00:14:26,720 Speaker 4: they only created one expected ol against Arsenal. I like 312 00:14:26,760 --> 00:14:28,600 Speaker 4: to mention that basically all that came off of one 313 00:14:28,640 --> 00:14:32,280 Speaker 4: counter attack. But when they played Arsenal on the road recently, 314 00:14:32,680 --> 00:14:35,960 Speaker 4: they got demolished. And Liverpool has been playing in the 315 00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:38,200 Speaker 4: Europa League. They're not playing in the Champions League. Even 316 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:40,800 Speaker 4: City in the Champions League they had Leipsig in their 317 00:14:40,800 --> 00:14:42,360 Speaker 4: group and that was it and then they got drawn 318 00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:46,360 Speaker 4: against Copenhagen here in the first rounds. So we haven't 319 00:14:46,440 --> 00:14:51,040 Speaker 4: seen a lot of these like elite versus elite matches, 320 00:14:51,120 --> 00:14:53,360 Speaker 4: so it's very hard for us, you know, and why 321 00:14:53,400 --> 00:14:56,160 Speaker 4: we are like focusing so hard on what the tactical 322 00:14:56,160 --> 00:14:57,560 Speaker 4: battle is going to be rather than just what the 323 00:14:57,600 --> 00:15:00,400 Speaker 4: numbers are is because everybody these teams like City, Liverpool 324 00:15:00,400 --> 00:15:02,200 Speaker 4: and Arsenal are just beating up on everybody else. 325 00:15:02,760 --> 00:15:04,600 Speaker 2: So again I agree with you. 326 00:15:04,600 --> 00:15:07,040 Speaker 4: I'm very tempted to take City here target price, like 327 00:15:07,080 --> 00:15:09,320 Speaker 4: you said, John A Bett, minus one twenty if you 328 00:15:09,360 --> 00:15:11,680 Speaker 4: want to play the money line target price, I'm gonna 329 00:15:11,680 --> 00:15:14,000 Speaker 4: go with plus one fifty around that range. It's good 330 00:15:14,040 --> 00:15:15,400 Speaker 4: enough for me if you want to play the money line. 331 00:15:15,440 --> 00:15:17,760 Speaker 3: But yeah, it's fascinating. 332 00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:20,000 Speaker 4: We're going to learn a lot from this match. 333 00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:22,640 Speaker 2: Who do we learn more from the City match? 334 00:15:23,000 --> 00:15:25,000 Speaker 3: Who do we learn more from City or Liverpool in 335 00:15:25,000 --> 00:15:25,280 Speaker 3: this match? 336 00:15:25,320 --> 00:15:27,160 Speaker 2: I think we learn a lot more from City in 337 00:15:27,240 --> 00:15:27,560 Speaker 2: this match. 338 00:15:27,560 --> 00:15:30,920 Speaker 3: I agree. I agree because if City does kind of 339 00:15:30,960 --> 00:15:34,080 Speaker 3: just comfortably beat Liverpool here at Liverpool at Infield, which 340 00:15:34,120 --> 00:15:38,720 Speaker 3: like again nobody does, then I mean, I know Arsenal 341 00:15:38,760 --> 00:15:40,720 Speaker 3: still goes there. City has the toughest of the three 342 00:15:40,720 --> 00:15:45,840 Speaker 3: remaining schedules because they still they go to Tottenham. Believe 343 00:15:47,040 --> 00:15:49,600 Speaker 3: they also go to Brighton, like they have some tougher 344 00:15:49,640 --> 00:15:52,600 Speaker 3: away games they go to they go to Villa, they 345 00:15:52,600 --> 00:15:55,120 Speaker 3: host Villa, they host Villa, the host Villa. Yeah, so 346 00:15:55,160 --> 00:15:56,440 Speaker 3: there are some top they have the toughest of the 347 00:15:56,480 --> 00:16:00,480 Speaker 3: three remaining schedules that could work in their favor without 348 00:16:00,520 --> 00:16:03,760 Speaker 3: a doubt. But Liverpool, Liverpool is gonna get most of 349 00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:08,360 Speaker 3: their tough games after this at home. So you know, Liverpool. 350 00:16:07,880 --> 00:16:11,720 Speaker 2: Wins this, they might jump to be the favorites. 351 00:16:11,240 --> 00:16:14,800 Speaker 3: To Yeah, they're gonna be minus minuss if they win, 352 00:16:15,040 --> 00:16:18,320 Speaker 3: and I'd probably look to fade them actually off of them, yep, exactly, 353 00:16:18,760 --> 00:16:21,440 Speaker 3: but yeah, I mean it's a huge leverage match. We're 354 00:16:21,520 --> 00:16:23,400 Speaker 3: very excited for it. Game of the year, tough stuff. 355 00:16:24,680 --> 00:16:26,320 Speaker 3: You're gonna wait more on the market and see if 356 00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:28,680 Speaker 3: we can't get Sola in there, and if I'm almost 357 00:16:28,720 --> 00:16:30,960 Speaker 3: hoping he plays, because look I know he's obviously an 358 00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:35,400 Speaker 3: upgrade over Diaz. And if Salad can't go, then it's 359 00:16:35,840 --> 00:16:37,560 Speaker 3: Harvey Elliott. 360 00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:39,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's Elliott. 361 00:16:39,880 --> 00:16:41,880 Speaker 3: Or they'll play They'll play New Years off the left, 362 00:16:41,880 --> 00:16:45,120 Speaker 3: play gackpost centrally, yeah, off the right. 363 00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:48,120 Speaker 4: Really, you know, in big matches hasn't worked. They tried 364 00:16:48,160 --> 00:16:54,680 Speaker 4: that against Arsenal, playing gackpoll more centrally and famously Saliba 365 00:16:54,760 --> 00:16:56,320 Speaker 4: just put him in his pocket for sixty minutes and 366 00:16:56,320 --> 00:16:57,840 Speaker 4: then they had and they subbed on nun Yez and 367 00:16:57,880 --> 00:17:00,400 Speaker 4: then obviously Liverpool created all their chances. So if they 368 00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:02,080 Speaker 4: try to put Gackpole up top. 369 00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:03,640 Speaker 2: Here, I'm going to bet City. Yeah. 370 00:17:03,640 --> 00:17:05,600 Speaker 3: I don't love gag Poe in this match. Gak pus 371 00:17:05,600 --> 00:17:07,440 Speaker 3: a weird fit in that team anyway, But all right, 372 00:17:07,480 --> 00:17:09,000 Speaker 3: I think that's enough on on the big game. We 373 00:17:09,040 --> 00:17:10,520 Speaker 3: have a lot more to get to and it's gonna 374 00:17:10,520 --> 00:17:12,359 Speaker 3: be amazing. And I just want to point out this 375 00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:17,520 Speaker 3: one stat before we go away from it. Since uh 376 00:17:17,960 --> 00:17:21,480 Speaker 3: just since Christmas, Arsenal plus one point this is non 377 00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:25,879 Speaker 3: penalty plus one point seven non penalty XG City plus 378 00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:30,840 Speaker 3: one point five five and Liverpool plus one point thirty nine, 379 00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:35,160 Speaker 3: it's non penalty since Christmas. You schedule adjust that Liverpool 380 00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:38,280 Speaker 3: has played the slightly tougher schedule and has dealt with 381 00:17:38,280 --> 00:17:39,800 Speaker 3: some injuries. But again, it just kind of gets to 382 00:17:39,840 --> 00:17:41,959 Speaker 3: the point which is like, oh, these three teams are 383 00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:43,919 Speaker 3: way better than everybody else and there's not even a 384 00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:47,040 Speaker 3: close fourth, and they're kind of just obliterating everybody. And 385 00:17:47,080 --> 00:17:49,200 Speaker 3: so now we're stuck in a in a world where 386 00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:51,560 Speaker 3: it's at all time title race. I tweeted this last week. 387 00:17:51,560 --> 00:17:54,399 Speaker 3: I stand by it. Like the next eleven games. 388 00:17:54,320 --> 00:17:59,560 Speaker 4: If nobody's blinking right now, it's I means just against 389 00:17:59,560 --> 00:18:01,040 Speaker 4: snoting of for US was just like. 390 00:18:01,400 --> 00:18:03,480 Speaker 3: City like kind of had a close call with United. 391 00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:05,440 Speaker 3: I mean they in the sense that, like the way 392 00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:06,960 Speaker 3: the game played out, it looked like they might lose 393 00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:07,400 Speaker 3: for a minute. 394 00:18:07,440 --> 00:18:09,160 Speaker 2: But I lack game so hard. 395 00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:13,360 Speaker 4: When that Rashford banger went in, I started dying laugh 396 00:18:13,400 --> 00:18:14,959 Speaker 4: and I was just like, oh my gosh, here we go. 397 00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:17,439 Speaker 4: And then it didn't matter, just like a billion shots 398 00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:18,840 Speaker 4: from City and we'll see if they go in. 399 00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:21,719 Speaker 3: Yeah you'll. If lee Ball were here, he would say 400 00:18:21,760 --> 00:18:25,119 Speaker 3: about the draw for being honest. Yeah, but he is not. 401 00:18:25,240 --> 00:18:29,000 Speaker 3: And we will move on to leebof the nil nil 402 00:18:29,080 --> 00:18:33,639 Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, all right man United Everton. Now we are 403 00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:36,919 Speaker 3: the game, our game, our game of the year. Yeah, 404 00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:39,600 Speaker 3: fair warning. The game kicks off at seven through am Eastern. 405 00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:41,840 Speaker 3: My my win rate on those matches since we started 406 00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:44,520 Speaker 3: this podcast is like twenty one percent. I never win. 407 00:18:45,320 --> 00:18:47,120 Speaker 3: I just should just sleep through and never bet them. 408 00:18:47,119 --> 00:18:49,280 Speaker 3: But I do have a bet on this game. And look, 409 00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:51,639 Speaker 3: it's the podcast special. We're all gonna be on Everton 410 00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:55,600 Speaker 3: one way or another. Really funny. So you know, you 411 00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:57,640 Speaker 3: get to this number right, United a small favorite at 412 00:18:57,640 --> 00:18:59,960 Speaker 3: home plaus minus one twenty five market says, you know, 413 00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:02,840 Speaker 3: it is about a tick or two better than Everton, 414 00:19:03,040 --> 00:19:05,760 Speaker 3: which generally you know, coming into the season, you would 415 00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:07,720 Speaker 3: have laughed at somebody who said United it's only gonna 416 00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:09,879 Speaker 3: be minus won twenty five at home against Everton. But 417 00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:12,240 Speaker 3: then you watch the season play out and you're like, oh, 418 00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:15,320 Speaker 3: like even that same casuals like, wow, Unit, it's only 419 00:19:15,320 --> 00:19:17,440 Speaker 3: minus one twenty five at home against Everton, Like Everton's 420 00:19:17,440 --> 00:19:20,880 Speaker 3: like barely fighting off relegation and looks like shit every 421 00:19:20,920 --> 00:19:25,560 Speaker 3: other week. Even I would say, any United fan would 422 00:19:25,560 --> 00:19:27,639 Speaker 3: tell you they played their best in the last ten matches. 423 00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:30,679 Speaker 3: Hoyland coming on was a big part of it. You know, 424 00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:32,879 Speaker 3: now he's hurt, but Hoyland coming on big part of it. 425 00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:35,360 Speaker 3: But they've played their best soccer in the last ten 426 00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:37,680 Speaker 3: matches of the season. They had finally had a winning 427 00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:39,840 Speaker 3: run they put together. Yes, they lose to full On, 428 00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:42,600 Speaker 3: they lose a city so kind of plunts the the 429 00:19:42,640 --> 00:19:44,400 Speaker 3: love of it. But even in the last six hundred 430 00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:48,000 Speaker 3: and twenty minutes, Everton has a plus point zero three 431 00:19:48,119 --> 00:19:50,880 Speaker 3: actual difference for ninety minutes, which most Everton fans would 432 00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:53,280 Speaker 3: tell you is their worst stretch of their season. They've 433 00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:56,680 Speaker 3: been an average team by extual difference, United is minus 434 00:19:56,760 --> 00:19:59,720 Speaker 3: zero point two, so again an average team. These two 435 00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:02,040 Speaker 3: teams are basically exactly the same. And we just had 436 00:20:02,040 --> 00:20:03,560 Speaker 3: what I think Everton fans will tell you it's their 437 00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:06,000 Speaker 3: worst stretch and ever and United had their best stretch. 438 00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:08,919 Speaker 3: The actual goal differences are about a goal apart, and 439 00:20:08,920 --> 00:20:10,840 Speaker 3: that's just kind of the point. Like Anana has been great, 440 00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:14,080 Speaker 3: he's helped their defense hold up. They've conceded a ton 441 00:20:14,119 --> 00:20:17,240 Speaker 3: of shots. United they're conceding like twenty shots just walking 442 00:20:17,280 --> 00:20:20,639 Speaker 3: off the bus. They've already given up twenty shots. Thoughnan 443 00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:22,680 Speaker 3: has done good with shots stopping, They've generally not given 444 00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:25,800 Speaker 3: up a ton of big chances and not City match excluded. 445 00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:29,199 Speaker 3: But again, like, how long can you get away with 446 00:20:29,200 --> 00:20:32,080 Speaker 3: giving up twenty shots a game in the Premier League 447 00:20:32,160 --> 00:20:34,640 Speaker 3: and being supposed to be like an above average team, 448 00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:37,760 Speaker 3: which the market prices United as an average team, and 449 00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:42,240 Speaker 3: Everton is kind of elite defensively, like they don't allow 450 00:20:42,280 --> 00:20:44,520 Speaker 3: big chances, they don't allow a ton of shots. In general, 451 00:20:44,560 --> 00:20:48,800 Speaker 3: they're top five and XTG you allowed, they're very good 452 00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:52,960 Speaker 3: at preventing those big chances and the biggest difference here 453 00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:55,800 Speaker 3: now and where Everton has their advantage. I'm kind of 454 00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:57,480 Speaker 3: stealing your thunder because I know you're gonna mention this. 455 00:20:57,720 --> 00:20:59,960 Speaker 3: Everton has created the most expected goals from set pieces 456 00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:03,000 Speaker 3: this year. They've created the second most goals behind only Arsenal. 457 00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:07,520 Speaker 3: United is the third worst by extually conceded from set pieces. 458 00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:11,040 Speaker 3: Only Villa and Burnley are worst. So everton biggest thing 459 00:21:11,119 --> 00:21:12,720 Speaker 3: right now they have going for them is getting dead 460 00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:15,080 Speaker 3: balls and then scoring off of them. United has a 461 00:21:15,119 --> 00:21:18,720 Speaker 3: major problem there. That's where Everton flips this match and 462 00:21:18,760 --> 00:21:20,840 Speaker 3: wins it as a dog exactly. 463 00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:24,560 Speaker 4: And you know what it comes down to. We've been 464 00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:27,000 Speaker 4: talking about this for a while, but ten Hogg has 465 00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:30,439 Speaker 4: basically conceded that he can no longer his team can 466 00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:33,840 Speaker 4: no longer control matches. So even when they play these 467 00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:38,159 Speaker 4: bottom end of the table teams like Fulham Wolves, all 468 00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:41,200 Speaker 4: these teams, they get in these back and forth transition 469 00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:45,000 Speaker 4: match over and over and over again because he's realized, 470 00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:47,719 Speaker 4: like hey, like this is the only chance we have 471 00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:51,200 Speaker 4: to be successful is to try and press teams high, 472 00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:54,840 Speaker 4: try and pick off a high turnover and create a 473 00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:56,040 Speaker 4: big scoring chance off of that. 474 00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:57,040 Speaker 2: They haven't. 475 00:21:57,160 --> 00:21:59,840 Speaker 4: They've gotten high turnovers, but like we mentioned, they aren't 476 00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:02,800 Speaker 4: getting goals off of those high turnovers. And then once 477 00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:05,399 Speaker 4: teams beat the first line of the pressure, they just 478 00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:08,119 Speaker 4: have acres of space to just run directly right at 479 00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:11,160 Speaker 4: United's back line that is still without Luke Shaw, still 480 00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:14,840 Speaker 4: without Lossandra Martinez. So now you're going to face Everton, 481 00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:17,160 Speaker 4: who's one of the better transition offenses in the Premier League, 482 00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:18,760 Speaker 4: a team that is really good at getting the ball 483 00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:23,680 Speaker 4: into wide spaces and creating chances via crosses. I mean, 484 00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:27,080 Speaker 4: even if Everton decides, okay, you know what, United, we 485 00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:28,560 Speaker 4: don't really want to get in a back and forth 486 00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:30,600 Speaker 4: with you, but we don't want a high pace type match. 487 00:22:30,640 --> 00:22:33,000 Speaker 4: We're just going to We're just gonna sit. We're gonna 488 00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:34,320 Speaker 4: do what we do best. We're gonna sit in our 489 00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:37,520 Speaker 4: mid block and dare you guys to play through us. 490 00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:40,480 Speaker 4: The game of the previous meeting. I know people will say, 491 00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:42,800 Speaker 4: well United beat Everton three nothing at Goodison Park like 492 00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:45,359 Speaker 4: in the previous meeting. Well, if you remember Garnacho hit 493 00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:47,960 Speaker 4: the best goal of the year, that's probably gonna win 494 00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:50,960 Speaker 4: the Puskas Award at the end of the year, and 495 00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:53,080 Speaker 4: it completely flipped the match on its head and now 496 00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:54,920 Speaker 4: Everton has to play aggresive. They had press high and 497 00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:57,160 Speaker 4: then it got end to end and in the end 498 00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:00,280 Speaker 4: Everton ended up winning the expected goals by all and 499 00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:03,000 Speaker 4: outshot United twenty four to eight and ended up losing 500 00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:05,280 Speaker 4: three to nothing. And that just kind of highlights how 501 00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:08,119 Speaker 4: bad of luck Everton have had, you know, this season. 502 00:23:08,119 --> 00:23:10,239 Speaker 4: But really during this last run, they're winless in their 503 00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:15,760 Speaker 4: last ten Premier League matches. During that reframe minusal differential 504 00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:20,080 Speaker 4: minus eleven actual goal differential excuse me, minus one expect 505 00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:22,800 Speaker 4: goal differential, they have scored seven goals off a thirteen 506 00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:26,600 Speaker 4: point eight expected They are so overdue for a positive 507 00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:29,440 Speaker 4: result here and it's going to come at Old Trafford. 508 00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:33,399 Speaker 4: So like this sets up so terribly for United, and 509 00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:36,600 Speaker 4: it's it's the game of the year for me, quite frankly, 510 00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:39,760 Speaker 4: this is my game of the year Everton plus a half. 511 00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:42,359 Speaker 4: At even money, I have Everton projected as a favorite, 512 00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:44,480 Speaker 4: and I don't think I'm that wrong because they have 513 00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:47,760 Speaker 4: significantly been a better team this year. They've been better offensively, 514 00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:50,679 Speaker 4: they've been better defensively, they've been better on set pieces, 515 00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:52,920 Speaker 4: they're better from open play, They're a better pressing team. 516 00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:56,119 Speaker 4: I mean, you can look through every single statistical category 517 00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:58,879 Speaker 4: and you can say, oh my gosh, like Everton are better, 518 00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:01,000 Speaker 4: or even if you look at like box entries and 519 00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:03,280 Speaker 4: like final third entries, yes United is better, but they're 520 00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:05,800 Speaker 4: not doing anything with that. Everton actually does something when 521 00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:08,760 Speaker 4: they entered the box. So I love Everton here plus 522 00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:10,440 Speaker 4: a half. I think it's one of the biggest edges 523 00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:12,760 Speaker 4: I've had this entire Premier League season. So therefore it's 524 00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:13,440 Speaker 4: the game of the year. 525 00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:17,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, I would love to bet United as a home dog, 526 00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:19,280 Speaker 3: but it kind of gets back to the point, which 527 00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:21,760 Speaker 3: is like, oh, remember we talked about that match. It 528 00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:25,280 Speaker 3: was in November. It was a where were you moment 529 00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:29,800 Speaker 3: and I was sitting there. We bet Everton, and when 530 00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:31,480 Speaker 3: we talked about on the pod, they were a slight 531 00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:33,080 Speaker 3: dog at home and I said they should we a 532 00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:35,480 Speaker 3: gall were like they should be favored. They closed a 533 00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:37,520 Speaker 3: favorite and were down a goal inside five minutes on 534 00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:40,040 Speaker 3: a banger, and like that happens. It's a soccer match. 535 00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:42,280 Speaker 3: Sometimes the guy hits the ball in the corner on 536 00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:45,000 Speaker 3: a great bicycle kick and you tit your cap and 537 00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:47,119 Speaker 3: you say, okay, but the run of the match, nobody 538 00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:49,000 Speaker 3: who watched that match would tell you United was the 539 00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:53,440 Speaker 3: better team in the first half. And the biggest thing is, okay, 540 00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:56,600 Speaker 3: if you just took that closing line and then flipped 541 00:24:56,600 --> 00:24:59,160 Speaker 3: home field, that would not even get you to United 542 00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:02,840 Speaker 3: minus one twenty five. I'm so you know you're getting 543 00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:04,960 Speaker 3: extra you added onto United off of this run of form. 544 00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:07,520 Speaker 3: And again, like the main reason they were playing better 545 00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:10,000 Speaker 3: is because Hoylan's were kicking the ball into the net 546 00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:13,879 Speaker 3: now and then you know, and he's out, so you know, 547 00:25:14,080 --> 00:25:16,119 Speaker 3: it's a it's a bit of an issue when they 548 00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:18,480 Speaker 3: don't really have like a true true striker on the team. 549 00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:21,040 Speaker 3: Rashford's still not best when he plays that position, and 550 00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:24,119 Speaker 3: I just really don't think everything's going to give you 551 00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:26,320 Speaker 3: a ton of space and behind and that's what United 552 00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:29,000 Speaker 3: loves and they're not gonna get it. So I think 553 00:25:29,040 --> 00:25:30,879 Speaker 3: this plays out well for Everton. I think I like 554 00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:33,200 Speaker 3: them as well. I bet them you follow them in 555 00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:34,919 Speaker 3: the app. We can wake up at seven thirty and 556 00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:38,560 Speaker 3: sweat it out in the morning, all right, next day, 557 00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:44,960 Speaker 3: Bournemuth Sheffield United. My notes say, lol, no, in all Caps. 558 00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:47,600 Speaker 3: I did not prep this game. I pulled up my numbers. 559 00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:48,879 Speaker 3: I said, all right, we have a little bit of 560 00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:51,520 Speaker 3: value on Sheffield, I said, nope, past yeah, nope. 561 00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:55,000 Speaker 4: That's pretty clear. If you watch the Arsenal match, they 562 00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:56,000 Speaker 4: have completely quit. 563 00:25:56,480 --> 00:25:57,360 Speaker 2: They have dude. 564 00:25:57,359 --> 00:25:59,840 Speaker 3: The goalie play between them and Forrest. 565 00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:03,679 Speaker 4: I've talked about this before with the goalie is so 566 00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:05,560 Speaker 4: he's you know, Foddingham has. 567 00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:06,480 Speaker 2: Been really bad this season. 568 00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:08,719 Speaker 3: Right now they have gerbage and now they have garbage 569 00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:10,360 Speaker 3: in there. He was awful on Monday, he. 570 00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:14,640 Speaker 4: Was Offulday fottering him. They told him at the transfer 571 00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:16,480 Speaker 4: deadline that we're gonna try to loan you out because 572 00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:19,720 Speaker 4: we're gonna bring somebody else in, and that didn't happen. 573 00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:22,280 Speaker 4: The goalie they wanted didn't come in, so they just 574 00:26:22,359 --> 00:26:23,760 Speaker 4: left him in net. So he's one of he's just 575 00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:26,400 Speaker 4: sitting there and that being like they wanted somebody other 576 00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:27,840 Speaker 4: than me and they were gonna loan me out. Now 577 00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:30,960 Speaker 4: I just sit here and just absorb twenty five shots 578 00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:34,879 Speaker 4: a game right now. So you know, I was thinking 579 00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:37,720 Speaker 4: about this and I need to look deeper into the 580 00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:39,520 Speaker 4: schedules and I'll put it out on Twitter. 581 00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:41,200 Speaker 2: If if I'm feeling it. 582 00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:44,479 Speaker 4: But uh, Bournemouth, I know, you know, we gave them 583 00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:46,040 Speaker 4: out nine to one for top half finish at the 584 00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:47,760 Speaker 4: beginning of the season. They're like three to one right 585 00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:50,000 Speaker 4: now for top half finish and they have a run 586 00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:52,200 Speaker 4: here of Sheffield and looting back to back at home 587 00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:56,080 Speaker 4: six points flips them right up the table and gives 588 00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:59,880 Speaker 4: them within a shot of getting here to the top ten. 589 00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:04,320 Speaker 4: So that's my thought from this match. Actually, that was 590 00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:06,160 Speaker 4: the only thing I had. You know, if you want 591 00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:08,000 Speaker 4: to lave with Bournemouth, go ahead, that's fine. They weren't 592 00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:10,439 Speaker 4: that great against Burnley. Quite frankly in their previous match. 593 00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:13,280 Speaker 4: I thought Burnley really controlled the match. I mean, Burnley had, 594 00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:16,240 Speaker 4: you know, close to seventy percent possession and we're doing 595 00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:18,160 Speaker 4: a really good job controlling the middle of the pitch 596 00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:20,120 Speaker 4: and then you know, Bournemouth snuck a couple off them. 597 00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:23,240 Speaker 4: But you know, sheffields obviously a very different team than 598 00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:28,600 Speaker 4: that of Burnley, and you know, Sheffield feels a lot 599 00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:33,280 Speaker 4: like Norwich two years ago, when it was just like 600 00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:35,760 Speaker 4: Norwich was the worst team by far in the Premier 601 00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:37,600 Speaker 4: League and they were going down and it was just 602 00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:39,720 Speaker 4: like what do we even do with this team, Like 603 00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:42,280 Speaker 4: we kept betting them score, you know, against. 604 00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:43,280 Speaker 2: Against whatever it is. 605 00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:46,320 Speaker 3: But like your attack wasn't terrible. Yeah, I mean it 606 00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:48,400 Speaker 3: was terrible, but it wasn't as terrible as the market thought. 607 00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:50,760 Speaker 3: Which is funny is because when you first said Norwich, 608 00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:53,000 Speaker 3: I was actually thinking about Premier League restart Norwich. 609 00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:54,040 Speaker 2: Yeah. 610 00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:56,159 Speaker 3: Like, imagine you're a player on Norwich and you have 611 00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:58,600 Speaker 3: the COVID break, you get like three months off no sock, 612 00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:02,360 Speaker 3: and you come back to play eleven matches I think 613 00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:05,240 Speaker 3: it was or twelve matches they played the first match 614 00:28:05,280 --> 00:28:08,320 Speaker 3: against Southampton. They were still decently live to stay up. 615 00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:09,240 Speaker 3: I mean they would have had to go on a 616 00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:11,160 Speaker 3: good run. But like again it's like you got to restart, 617 00:28:11,160 --> 00:28:12,080 Speaker 3: it's like a new season. 618 00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:12,720 Speaker 2: Yeah. 619 00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:14,399 Speaker 3: And they didn't win a single match. They didn't even 620 00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:16,639 Speaker 3: draw a single match. They lost all of them and 621 00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:21,480 Speaker 3: they went down. It was the the Daniel Farka Norwich so. 622 00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:26,040 Speaker 4: And he did guess what he might be back next season? 623 00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:29,399 Speaker 3: I saw that guy keeps getting jobs. It's amazing, I 624 00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:33,159 Speaker 3: know the retail But yeah, Burnemouth. So Burnemouth remaining scheduled. 625 00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:36,600 Speaker 3: They have one of the tougher ones. Uh, so that's 626 00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:38,920 Speaker 3: not great, but you know they. 627 00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:41,560 Speaker 4: So the finish is hard, like they finished Brighton, Arsenal, 628 00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:46,640 Speaker 4: Brentford and Chelsea. But in their next six matches or 629 00:28:46,800 --> 00:28:50,720 Speaker 4: excuse me seven matches, it's Sheffield, Luton, Wolves, Everton Crystal 630 00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:54,080 Speaker 4: Palace Luton. Then they get United at home and then yeah, 631 00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:57,240 Speaker 4: the last five are hard at Villa home, Brighton at 632 00:28:57,320 --> 00:28:58,880 Speaker 4: Arsenal home Brentford. 633 00:28:58,680 --> 00:29:00,880 Speaker 3: And next their next four matches are at home. 634 00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:03,320 Speaker 4: No, the three of their next four at home. They 635 00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:07,760 Speaker 4: travel two or four, that's canceled though. They get Everton 636 00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:10,440 Speaker 4: Crystal Palace at home, Luton, Sheffield at home, and they 637 00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:14,000 Speaker 4: go two Wolves, which excuse me that Wolves match has 638 00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:15,080 Speaker 4: been postponed. 639 00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:16,880 Speaker 3: Right, So their next four at home. Yeah, and that's 640 00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:18,840 Speaker 3: the time. Right. So here's the thing, and we're gonna 641 00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:20,440 Speaker 3: get into the season where like teams start to be 642 00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:22,400 Speaker 3: on the beach and they don't really care and it's like, okay, 643 00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:24,600 Speaker 3: but when you get down to it, like you're getting 644 00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:26,480 Speaker 3: four straight home games and Burnmouth is the kind of 645 00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:30,040 Speaker 3: team when you're having a a season like this, you're 646 00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:31,520 Speaker 3: the team that wants to play all the way in, 647 00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:34,640 Speaker 3: whereas by the time they play Brighton in April, they're 648 00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:36,440 Speaker 3: either going to be in the Europa League or pretty 649 00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:41,120 Speaker 3: much coasting Man United by by late April is gonna 650 00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:43,840 Speaker 3: be in a weird place, even like Brentford on the 651 00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:48,000 Speaker 3: second to last week at Chelsea on the final. Yeah, 652 00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:50,840 Speaker 3: so like they have a path here. There is definitely 653 00:29:50,840 --> 00:29:52,640 Speaker 3: a you're right, Like they're gonna play Luton twice and 654 00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:55,480 Speaker 3: they're gonna play Sheffield and Palace at home in the 655 00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:59,440 Speaker 3: next five match weeks. Yeah, they're gonna make This is 656 00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:00,880 Speaker 3: time for them to they're runing the way they've been 657 00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:03,800 Speaker 3: playing like they're playing well enough, although pitched a big 658 00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:06,680 Speaker 3: injury with Sinesi so that's not great yep. 659 00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:11,560 Speaker 4: But either way, at there currently eight points back from 660 00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:14,400 Speaker 4: Brighton to get to the top get to the top half, 661 00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:19,200 Speaker 4: so three to one. They're three to one currently or yeah, 662 00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:22,480 Speaker 4: they're plus two ninety at about three sixty five and 663 00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:23,840 Speaker 4: also essentially three to one. 664 00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:25,480 Speaker 3: But they have the game in hand, right and it's 665 00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:27,040 Speaker 3: a game in hand, So. 666 00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:28,400 Speaker 2: Game in hand. 667 00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:30,600 Speaker 4: If you assume that game in hand, which is Looton, 668 00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:33,440 Speaker 4: which is three points at home, they would essentially be 669 00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:36,760 Speaker 4: five points behind Brighton for a top half finish and 670 00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:37,960 Speaker 4: that's also not factory. 671 00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:42,280 Speaker 3: And the fact that Wolves Wolves are top half, that's 672 00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:42,760 Speaker 3: the spot. 673 00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:44,160 Speaker 2: That's the spot right there. 674 00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:47,280 Speaker 3: Also West we talk about West. 675 00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:52,479 Speaker 4: To their two best or two strikers, so that's That's 676 00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:54,600 Speaker 4: the only thing I thought from this match was Bournemouth 677 00:30:54,960 --> 00:30:56,760 Speaker 4: top half finished three to one. I'll put it, you 678 00:30:56,800 --> 00:30:59,120 Speaker 4: know what, I'll put it out on on Twitter after 679 00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:00,520 Speaker 4: this podcast comes out. 680 00:31:00,600 --> 00:31:04,000 Speaker 3: Just I'm gonna just stick with our original ticket. But yeah, 681 00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:06,520 Speaker 3: I mean Chelsea's gonna be a problem there too. Probably 682 00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:09,800 Speaker 3: it's a shame west Ham has forty two Bournemouth at 683 00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:13,120 Speaker 3: thirty one thirty four if they win the match. Chelsea 684 00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:15,120 Speaker 3: also is a game in hand. So I think Chelsea's 685 00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:17,080 Speaker 3: the big problem there because I think Wolves could drop. 686 00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:20,240 Speaker 3: I think west Ham could drop. I don't really see 687 00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:25,160 Speaker 3: newcastleer Brighton falling that far below Bournemouth, so it's not impossible. 688 00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:27,760 Speaker 3: But they're not out of the mix. It's a shame 689 00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:29,880 Speaker 3: they had some they had some bad luck coming in here, 690 00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:32,840 Speaker 3: you know, conceded a couple of late goals that cost 691 00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:37,200 Speaker 3: him points and wins. Anyway, we're not betting this match. 692 00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:39,360 Speaker 3: If you bet this match, there's so many better matches 693 00:31:40,040 --> 00:31:45,320 Speaker 3: to bet Saturday time goalscorer Yeah, minus two hundred. I 694 00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:46,640 Speaker 3: have no idea what the one is. Don't bet that 695 00:31:48,400 --> 00:31:52,520 Speaker 3: Crystal Palace against Lowton Town another one not the most 696 00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:55,240 Speaker 3: exciting on the board, Palace minus one thirty two on 697 00:31:55,280 --> 00:31:57,200 Speaker 3: the money line, total sitting at two and a half. 698 00:31:57,720 --> 00:31:58,560 Speaker 3: You have some thoughts on this. 699 00:31:59,160 --> 00:31:59,560 Speaker 2: I do. 700 00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:03,680 Speaker 4: I like another Lutontown over, and I quite frankly, I 701 00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:06,640 Speaker 4: think the market is continually putting their overs a little 702 00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:10,320 Speaker 4: too low given the style of play that they've had recently. 703 00:32:11,200 --> 00:32:13,280 Speaker 4: You know what we've seen from Crystal Palace under Glassner. 704 00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:16,120 Speaker 4: It's been a few matches, but you know his Frankfurt 705 00:32:16,160 --> 00:32:20,240 Speaker 4: teams are what you would call compact pressing, so press 706 00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:23,920 Speaker 4: from the middle, the triapress intensely from there. But as 707 00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:26,480 Speaker 4: you saw against Tottenham and even for stretches against Burnley, 708 00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:30,440 Speaker 4: they actually playing very very passive, very similar to Roy 709 00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:33,680 Speaker 4: Hodgson's Crystal Palace. I know it's different formation, but the principles, 710 00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:38,280 Speaker 4: defensive principles have been the exact same. The point of 711 00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:39,880 Speaker 4: what he's trying to do, and it's what allow of 712 00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:41,520 Speaker 4: managers are trying to do now, is he's trying to 713 00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:43,160 Speaker 4: dominate the middle of the pitch, like as you watch 714 00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:46,120 Speaker 4: against Tottenham they did just five four to one, Like, 715 00:32:46,240 --> 00:32:49,080 Speaker 4: let's just smother the middle of the pitch Tottenham, You're 716 00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:51,280 Speaker 4: not playing through there, so they allowed to a lot 717 00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:54,080 Speaker 4: of twov ones outside. If they do that here again 718 00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:58,240 Speaker 4: against Lutontown, that's what Lutontown wants. They want to create 719 00:32:58,360 --> 00:32:59,760 Speaker 4: chances to be across is they don't want to go 720 00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:01,880 Speaker 4: through the middle of the pitch. They want to be 721 00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:03,640 Speaker 4: able to create chances off of that, and they also 722 00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:07,000 Speaker 4: want to create chances off of set pieces. The loot 723 00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:10,240 Speaker 4: and back post overload got another goal, actually two goals, 724 00:33:10,280 --> 00:33:14,560 Speaker 4: excuse me, off set pieces against aston Villa. Crystal Palace 725 00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:17,720 Speaker 4: is still having a lot of issues defending corners and 726 00:33:17,760 --> 00:33:20,640 Speaker 4: defending set pieces. It's been true for what three four 727 00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:26,240 Speaker 4: years now and nothing has really changed. Previous meeting, Luton 728 00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:28,840 Speaker 4: scored a goal off a corner and a goal off 729 00:33:28,840 --> 00:33:31,840 Speaker 4: a cross, which you know Luton, excuse me. Crystal Palace 730 00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:33,840 Speaker 4: is second to last in the Premier leagu get allowing 731 00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:36,800 Speaker 4: crosses in their penalty area. So so if Crystal Palace 732 00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:39,680 Speaker 4: wants to keep the same defensive principle and defensive structure, 733 00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:41,440 Speaker 4: of like we're not gonna let you play through the 734 00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:43,160 Speaker 4: middle of the pitch, like Luten says, all right, cool, 735 00:33:43,560 --> 00:33:45,640 Speaker 4: We'll just get the ball wide, We'll sending crosses, we'll 736 00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:47,440 Speaker 4: get the ball in dead ball situations, and we'll try 737 00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:49,760 Speaker 4: to score goals off of set pieces. Now, the flip 738 00:33:49,800 --> 00:33:51,280 Speaker 4: side of that is is what I've been saying with 739 00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:55,840 Speaker 4: Luton Town is they rob Edwards is basically now like listen, 740 00:33:55,880 --> 00:33:58,760 Speaker 4: we're gonna get relegated unless we go for it. So 741 00:33:58,840 --> 00:34:00,920 Speaker 4: we're gonna press high, We're gonna man to man across 742 00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:04,480 Speaker 4: the pitch, and we think we're physical enough to disrupt 743 00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:06,440 Speaker 4: your build up play. My guess is what we've seen 744 00:34:06,440 --> 00:34:08,280 Speaker 4: from Crystal Palace and glass in the last few matches 745 00:34:08,280 --> 00:34:10,640 Speaker 4: is they're probably gonna send the ball along when Lutontown 746 00:34:10,680 --> 00:34:12,120 Speaker 4: tries to press, try to win, win a lot of 747 00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:16,080 Speaker 4: second balls, very similar to what Roy Hodgson's was with 748 00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:17,960 Speaker 4: Crystal Palace. And I think what you'll see with Glassner 749 00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:19,840 Speaker 4: is as we get further and further into the season 750 00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:22,080 Speaker 4: into next year, you'll see a different Crystal Palace. But 751 00:34:22,200 --> 00:34:24,480 Speaker 4: right now, given the squad they have and what they've 752 00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:26,799 Speaker 4: been playing for so long, He's probably just like, all right, 753 00:34:26,920 --> 00:34:28,640 Speaker 4: let's just kind of keep the same, let's just try 754 00:34:28,640 --> 00:34:30,239 Speaker 4: to stay in the Premier League, Like that's the main 755 00:34:30,280 --> 00:34:33,120 Speaker 4: thing we're trying to do here. But if Lutontown tries 756 00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:35,440 Speaker 4: to go man to man, I mean, Pallas has you know, 757 00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:38,680 Speaker 4: very capable players that can beat them over the top, 758 00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:41,480 Speaker 4: you know, as he's probably gonna flourish, and it's just this, 759 00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:43,719 Speaker 4: he's going to go man a man against somebody. So 760 00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:46,719 Speaker 4: I'm seeing a very back and forth type of match 761 00:34:46,760 --> 00:34:48,680 Speaker 4: here again with Lutontown, Like this is what they want, 762 00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:51,640 Speaker 4: Like Lutontown wants to create chaos, and I'm not sure 763 00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:54,319 Speaker 4: Crystal Palace is good enough in possession to slow this 764 00:34:54,440 --> 00:34:56,920 Speaker 4: match down and make it, you know, a grind it 765 00:34:56,960 --> 00:34:59,400 Speaker 4: out type of fair. So, especially with them being favorites, 766 00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:01,360 Speaker 4: I don't see a they're just gonna sit in defensive 767 00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:03,359 Speaker 4: block like they did against Tottenham and just say, hey, 768 00:35:03,360 --> 00:35:04,880 Speaker 4: here you go, looten down, like try to break us 769 00:35:04,880 --> 00:35:06,400 Speaker 4: down and we'll try to beach on the counter. So 770 00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:09,440 Speaker 4: projected three goals for this match, I mean overs two 771 00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:12,120 Speaker 4: and a half at minus one ten. I love the 772 00:35:12,160 --> 00:35:15,239 Speaker 4: over here and every week the podcast is over I'm 773 00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:17,960 Speaker 4: gonna bet the over in Bournemouth Louton Town as well. 774 00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:21,600 Speaker 3: So let's do a quick oral history of BJ betting 775 00:35:21,640 --> 00:35:25,520 Speaker 3: Luton overs. He bet the Brighton Luton over three, landed 776 00:35:25,560 --> 00:35:29,799 Speaker 3: four nil four expected goals clean winner Brighton Luton Newcastle. 777 00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:31,279 Speaker 3: I don't even know what the total was. I think 778 00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:33,759 Speaker 3: it was three again, ended four to four four point 779 00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:38,320 Speaker 3: seven XG Luton Sheffield over two and a half. Crazy 780 00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:38,840 Speaker 3: that the total. 781 00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:41,240 Speaker 2: I did both, yeah, I did. 782 00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:43,640 Speaker 4: I think I did both teams to score in that one. 783 00:35:43,719 --> 00:35:46,080 Speaker 3: Well, they both scored and Sheffield scored three times, so 784 00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:48,680 Speaker 3: there was four goals three point five XG over three 785 00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:51,000 Speaker 3: in the Luton man United game ended three with four 786 00:35:51,000 --> 00:35:53,440 Speaker 3: point seven XG, so pushed there. Then they went over 787 00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:56,719 Speaker 3: against Liverpool easily, over against Villa easily. So that is 788 00:35:57,200 --> 00:35:59,960 Speaker 3: if you're keeping score at home, including the FN Cup match, 789 00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:02,640 Speaker 3: seven straight lootonovers. BJ's five to zero and one betting them, 790 00:36:02,640 --> 00:36:04,800 Speaker 3: so I have only bet one of them myself. I 791 00:36:04,800 --> 00:36:06,600 Speaker 3: feel like a loser. I'm missing out on the money train. 792 00:36:06,680 --> 00:36:09,319 Speaker 3: At some point Edwards has to adjust right because they 793 00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:11,200 Speaker 3: keep losing. They're not winning. 794 00:36:10,880 --> 00:36:14,000 Speaker 4: Any really like I mean, okay, they lost to. 795 00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:17,040 Speaker 3: United, Liverpool and Villa and City in the fine and. 796 00:36:17,040 --> 00:36:19,080 Speaker 4: They actually they should have beat Villow like they played 797 00:36:19,120 --> 00:36:21,120 Speaker 4: really good in the second half and they deserve to 798 00:36:21,120 --> 00:36:22,759 Speaker 4: come back to the two two draw and then they 799 00:36:22,800 --> 00:36:25,200 Speaker 4: kind of just conceded late. But the problem is, and 800 00:36:25,280 --> 00:36:27,880 Speaker 4: what I've been telling everybody is that the beginning of 801 00:36:27,920 --> 00:36:30,640 Speaker 4: the season he tried this passive low block and they 802 00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:32,440 Speaker 4: were so bad at keeping teams through the middle of 803 00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:34,640 Speaker 4: the pitch that he had to just abandon it. Like 804 00:36:34,680 --> 00:36:36,640 Speaker 4: he doesn't really have a choice right now. They need 805 00:36:36,680 --> 00:36:39,280 Speaker 4: to get out of this relegation zone and their best 806 00:36:39,320 --> 00:36:41,600 Speaker 4: method of doing that is to play super aggressive and 807 00:36:41,640 --> 00:36:43,960 Speaker 4: to play these high event type matches. I mean, we 808 00:36:44,040 --> 00:36:46,439 Speaker 4: went through a stretch at the beginning of the season 809 00:36:46,520 --> 00:36:48,799 Speaker 4: where they had, you know, going into their match where 810 00:36:48,840 --> 00:36:51,239 Speaker 4: they actually beat Crystal Palace. In this previous one, they 811 00:36:51,280 --> 00:36:54,239 Speaker 4: had only won one match it was against Everton so 812 00:36:54,920 --> 00:37:00,840 Speaker 4: and even before they they played against against Right. You know, 813 00:37:00,880 --> 00:37:03,799 Speaker 4: they had gotten a couple of results in the in 814 00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:06,480 Speaker 4: the FA Cup, but if you remember, they had lost 815 00:37:06,520 --> 00:37:08,440 Speaker 4: to Chelsea they barely beached you know, they had a 816 00:37:08,480 --> 00:37:11,920 Speaker 4: really poor match against Sheffield United, got the upset against Newcastle, 817 00:37:11,920 --> 00:37:14,319 Speaker 4: but still wouldn't look that great. Like there was a 818 00:37:14,320 --> 00:37:16,680 Speaker 4: point where he had to say, all right, like this 819 00:37:16,760 --> 00:37:18,520 Speaker 4: is how we played last year in the championship, Like 820 00:37:18,520 --> 00:37:20,759 Speaker 4: we pressed everybody high, like we tried to create this big, 821 00:37:20,800 --> 00:37:22,719 Speaker 4: intense type thing and it actually worked and it got 822 00:37:22,800 --> 00:37:23,600 Speaker 4: us in the Premier League. 823 00:37:23,800 --> 00:37:24,640 Speaker 2: Let's go back to that. 824 00:37:24,960 --> 00:37:28,759 Speaker 4: So that's what he's done, and I it's hard for 825 00:37:28,800 --> 00:37:31,400 Speaker 4: me to give him the squad that he has to 826 00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:33,520 Speaker 4: say that he's wrong. And one more thing I'll just 827 00:37:33,520 --> 00:37:35,920 Speaker 4: mention Samual the conga is also out for them if 828 00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:37,960 Speaker 4: Loutontown ever wants to have any type of control of 829 00:37:38,000 --> 00:37:39,799 Speaker 4: a match, like he has to be in there, Like 830 00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:42,040 Speaker 4: he is the one guy in their defensive midfield that 831 00:37:42,040 --> 00:37:45,360 Speaker 4: can actually control the ball and distribute it. So without 832 00:37:45,400 --> 00:37:47,840 Speaker 4: him it becomes like the half like chaotis. 833 00:37:47,920 --> 00:37:50,919 Speaker 3: Yeah, a lot of defensive injuries for Luton too. We'll 834 00:37:50,920 --> 00:37:53,000 Speaker 3: move on real quick. For we said a couple of 835 00:37:53,000 --> 00:37:54,719 Speaker 3: weeks ago, like a month ago, Luton was the best 836 00:37:54,719 --> 00:37:58,040 Speaker 3: ats in the league. They are now four straight non covers. 837 00:37:58,120 --> 00:38:01,120 Speaker 3: So yeah, maybe the market on a little bit and 838 00:38:01,200 --> 00:38:05,799 Speaker 3: overre eighting Lutontown very possible. Pallace seven wins this year 839 00:38:06,040 --> 00:38:08,680 Speaker 3: four of them came against Burnley and Sheffield, so they 840 00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:12,000 Speaker 3: have done well against the other relegation fodder. All right, 841 00:38:12,000 --> 00:38:15,080 Speaker 3: Wolves Fulham kind of a price that I generally show 842 00:38:15,160 --> 00:38:17,040 Speaker 3: value on with Wolves here, but I also think the 843 00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:19,279 Speaker 3: striker situation is kind of dire for one and looking 844 00:38:19,320 --> 00:38:22,439 Speaker 3: better for Fulham Moonies is giving them real production. Scored 845 00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:24,360 Speaker 3: a goal against Brighton last week zero point three to 846 00:38:24,440 --> 00:38:27,080 Speaker 3: seven x g p ninety over a half XG plus 847 00:38:27,239 --> 00:38:30,160 Speaker 3: x A per ninety. He scored five goals in nine nineties. 848 00:38:30,160 --> 00:38:31,880 Speaker 4: That's pretty good, yeah. 849 00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:34,400 Speaker 3: And that's real and Fulham with real striker production is 850 00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:36,359 Speaker 3: not a terrible team. We talked about this a lot 851 00:38:36,400 --> 00:38:39,200 Speaker 3: on the show, and now Wolves don't really have like 852 00:38:39,320 --> 00:38:44,520 Speaker 3: their guy given their injury situation, and so there's questions 853 00:38:44,560 --> 00:38:46,759 Speaker 3: about how they make this work. They've made it work 854 00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:49,800 Speaker 3: all year. Kind of surprised even us, even though we were, 855 00:38:50,440 --> 00:38:52,640 Speaker 3: you know, down on them coming in and then they 856 00:38:52,680 --> 00:38:54,279 Speaker 3: fired the manager. We were up on them, and then 857 00:38:54,480 --> 00:38:57,000 Speaker 3: we didn't think they'd be this good. They still have 858 00:38:57,120 --> 00:38:58,560 Speaker 3: run good to get to where they are, and so 859 00:38:58,680 --> 00:39:00,640 Speaker 3: I think this number is pretty much right for me, 860 00:39:00,680 --> 00:39:02,439 Speaker 3: and I'm going to pass given the situation with both 861 00:39:02,440 --> 00:39:05,080 Speaker 3: teams health kind of trending and ops directions and trending 862 00:39:05,080 --> 00:39:05,680 Speaker 3: towards Fulham. 863 00:39:06,040 --> 00:39:08,480 Speaker 4: Yeah, I agree, It's just you know, I saw this 864 00:39:08,560 --> 00:39:11,440 Speaker 4: number and I said what for a second and I 865 00:39:11,480 --> 00:39:13,000 Speaker 4: was like getting ready, and then I went and looked 866 00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:16,520 Speaker 4: to the injury situation. Not only no Hwang, no Kunya, 867 00:39:16,880 --> 00:39:19,560 Speaker 4: we could be without jal Gomez, who's been one of 868 00:39:19,600 --> 00:39:20,960 Speaker 4: their best ball winners in the middle. 869 00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:21,160 Speaker 2: Of the pitch. 870 00:39:21,440 --> 00:39:25,279 Speaker 4: Patrendato is also questionable, Jose Saws questionable. So like the 871 00:39:25,320 --> 00:39:28,600 Speaker 4: five best players that Wolves have are not going to 872 00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:30,600 Speaker 4: be available. So it's very, very hard to get behind 873 00:39:30,600 --> 00:39:33,239 Speaker 4: a bet from here. And also Fulham just go take 874 00:39:33,280 --> 00:39:36,439 Speaker 4: a look at the road their road expected Gold to French, 875 00:39:36,480 --> 00:39:37,759 Speaker 4: which we said they have played a lot of good 876 00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:40,160 Speaker 4: teams on the road, but still they're pretty bad. So 877 00:39:40,400 --> 00:39:41,719 Speaker 4: easy pass, all. 878 00:39:41,760 --> 00:39:47,239 Speaker 3: Right, Arsenal host Brentford, So yeah, this is a pass too. Yeah. 879 00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:49,160 Speaker 3: I don't even want to bet Redford anymore. It's been 880 00:39:49,160 --> 00:39:51,839 Speaker 3: a weird situation for Brentford, right, the goalkeeping situation. We've 881 00:39:51,840 --> 00:39:54,200 Speaker 3: talked about that at nauseum, but their performances have generally 882 00:39:54,239 --> 00:39:56,560 Speaker 3: just kind of declined as the season's gone on the 883 00:39:56,600 --> 00:39:59,319 Speaker 3: attack is still fine. But you're going up against the 884 00:39:59,320 --> 00:40:01,640 Speaker 3: best defense in the p on the road at Arsenal. 885 00:40:02,040 --> 00:40:05,000 Speaker 3: That's not a great matchup. You're going up against team 886 00:40:05,000 --> 00:40:08,040 Speaker 3: that's pretty good on set pieces, so or Brentford usually excels. 887 00:40:08,080 --> 00:40:10,080 Speaker 3: And so I think when you think about like who 888 00:40:10,080 --> 00:40:12,359 Speaker 3: can be good against Arsenal, what teams match up? Well, 889 00:40:13,040 --> 00:40:15,799 Speaker 3: I think a more robust defensive side is the kind 890 00:40:15,840 --> 00:40:17,839 Speaker 3: of team that I want to go at Arsenal with 891 00:40:18,560 --> 00:40:21,400 Speaker 3: and kind of just turn it into an ugly match. Now, 892 00:40:21,640 --> 00:40:23,560 Speaker 3: there are like no teams in the prem that play 893 00:40:23,640 --> 00:40:28,560 Speaker 3: defense this year, so that's a different issue. But actually 894 00:40:28,560 --> 00:40:30,279 Speaker 3: they still go to Everton, right, No, they went to 895 00:40:30,280 --> 00:40:31,920 Speaker 3: Everton the host. They host Everton last. 896 00:40:31,800 --> 00:40:33,279 Speaker 2: Day, they host Everton on the final day. 897 00:40:33,680 --> 00:40:36,680 Speaker 4: So I'm just gonna tell people right now, if Arsenal 898 00:40:36,760 --> 00:40:40,160 Speaker 4: has a chance to win the Premier League and Liverpool 899 00:40:40,239 --> 00:40:42,040 Speaker 4: is right there with them, Everton will throw that match 900 00:40:42,080 --> 00:40:43,440 Speaker 4: one thousand times out of one. 901 00:40:43,280 --> 00:40:46,440 Speaker 3: Thousand, assuming they are already deducted all of the points 902 00:40:46,480 --> 00:40:47,279 Speaker 3: in a Yeah. 903 00:40:47,280 --> 00:40:49,719 Speaker 4: Well, well, also we don't like me and Michael in 904 00:40:49,760 --> 00:40:53,440 Speaker 4: the last episode said the way that the appeal is 905 00:40:53,480 --> 00:40:55,800 Speaker 4: going to work for both Everton and not eam Forrest 906 00:40:56,000 --> 00:40:58,719 Speaker 4: is the appeal is going to be finalized four days 907 00:40:58,719 --> 00:40:59,799 Speaker 4: after the Premier League is over. 908 00:41:00,320 --> 00:41:03,520 Speaker 3: So that's crazy. So but that is Lotontown's best chance 909 00:41:03,560 --> 00:41:05,160 Speaker 3: of staying up is that Forrest gets a penalty. 910 00:41:05,440 --> 00:41:05,520 Speaker 4: Uh. 911 00:41:05,600 --> 00:41:07,920 Speaker 3: Anyway, the one stat that I found really funny when 912 00:41:07,960 --> 00:41:09,440 Speaker 3: I was just kind of digging through some numbers and 913 00:41:09,440 --> 00:41:11,799 Speaker 3: like who's gotten, who's run good, who's run bad? So 914 00:41:11,840 --> 00:41:14,080 Speaker 3: there's a stat and it's how much have you benefited 915 00:41:14,160 --> 00:41:17,800 Speaker 3: or been hurt by opposition goalkeeper play? Which is pretty 916 00:41:17,840 --> 00:41:20,680 Speaker 3: much totally out of your hands. Uh. It was inspired 917 00:41:20,680 --> 00:41:22,719 Speaker 3: by b J Senate in our discord and I think 918 00:41:22,760 --> 00:41:26,360 Speaker 3: he tweeted it. Everton have had the three best opponent 919 00:41:26,440 --> 00:41:29,960 Speaker 3: goalkeeper performances against them the season. It was the west. 920 00:41:29,719 --> 00:41:33,640 Speaker 4: Ham performance of the entire season. 921 00:41:34,000 --> 00:41:38,279 Speaker 3: Yeah, west Ham Ariola and whoever they need to pull 922 00:41:38,320 --> 00:41:41,200 Speaker 3: out to uh to do to do the job, you know, 923 00:41:41,640 --> 00:41:46,120 Speaker 3: Burn Lano and who was the third one? Jose saw 924 00:41:46,200 --> 00:41:48,440 Speaker 3: our old legend and friend Jose saw that was the 925 00:41:48,760 --> 00:41:50,440 Speaker 3: famous early season match right when. 926 00:41:50,280 --> 00:41:53,560 Speaker 2: Because scored or the Wolves one nil win? 927 00:41:53,719 --> 00:41:58,040 Speaker 3: Yeah somehow. So Brighton and Everton have been the too 928 00:41:58,080 --> 00:42:00,719 Speaker 3: unluckiest this season. They've cost they've lost five to six 929 00:42:00,800 --> 00:42:03,439 Speaker 3: goals Everton. Of course, those three games are like four 930 00:42:03,440 --> 00:42:07,280 Speaker 3: goals alone. Brighton have been unlucky on that since Arsenal 931 00:42:07,960 --> 00:42:11,600 Speaker 3: has scored fourteen extra goals this year based on bad 932 00:42:11,640 --> 00:42:14,680 Speaker 3: goalkeeper play. And I watched Monday. I mean, you know, 933 00:42:14,760 --> 00:42:18,120 Speaker 3: Gerbach looked like me on Monday. About four of them 934 00:42:18,160 --> 00:42:23,600 Speaker 3: were on Monday, and so Arsenal have gotten fourteen extra goals. 935 00:42:24,680 --> 00:42:26,439 Speaker 3: The next best in the league is Villa at five. 936 00:42:26,560 --> 00:42:28,839 Speaker 3: So it's pretty funny. Now does it matter going forward, No, 937 00:42:29,360 --> 00:42:31,920 Speaker 3: but it is just kind of funny that how these 938 00:42:31,960 --> 00:42:34,279 Speaker 3: little things like change our narratives about what we think 939 00:42:34,280 --> 00:42:37,160 Speaker 3: about a team. You know, Brighton and Everton have generally 940 00:42:37,160 --> 00:42:40,400 Speaker 3: i'd say underperformed, although even Everton haven't really, but you 941 00:42:40,400 --> 00:42:43,560 Speaker 3: know whatever, they underperform their x G and so much 942 00:42:43,600 --> 00:42:45,880 Speaker 3: of it just comes down to like, oh, did you 943 00:42:45,960 --> 00:42:48,040 Speaker 3: run good with your own goalie? Is your own goalie 944 00:42:48,080 --> 00:42:50,160 Speaker 3: better than we thought, or is the other team's goalie 945 00:42:50,200 --> 00:42:52,040 Speaker 3: running hot against you? And that just like decides so 946 00:42:52,120 --> 00:42:54,279 Speaker 3: much of the season, and we talk all this stuff 947 00:42:54,280 --> 00:42:55,799 Speaker 3: about other things, and that just comes down to that. 948 00:42:56,840 --> 00:42:59,240 Speaker 3: I don't have bet for this match either, If anything, 949 00:43:00,320 --> 00:43:00,800 Speaker 3: I would. 950 00:43:00,600 --> 00:43:02,480 Speaker 2: Take some bread anytime goalscorer. 951 00:43:03,000 --> 00:43:05,799 Speaker 3: Yeah, well a lot of people were betting him on 952 00:43:05,800 --> 00:43:08,319 Speaker 3: Monday and then he came off and he scored six 953 00:43:08,400 --> 00:43:10,680 Speaker 3: and he came off at half and it was really funny. 954 00:43:11,960 --> 00:43:15,360 Speaker 3: Hit the post in like the thirtieth second of the game. Anyway, 955 00:43:15,480 --> 00:43:18,120 Speaker 3: Villa Tottenham Sunday at nine fun one here. 956 00:43:18,280 --> 00:43:18,920 Speaker 2: This is fun. 957 00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:22,319 Speaker 3: Two teams that just don't defend anymore. Two teams they 958 00:43:22,320 --> 00:43:25,000 Speaker 3: give up the highest x cheaper shot in the league 959 00:43:25,160 --> 00:43:29,520 Speaker 3: along with Newcastle and then Fulham. Villa's way over everybody 960 00:43:29,560 --> 00:43:32,200 Speaker 3: else because of that high line. Both teams play a 961 00:43:32,239 --> 00:43:34,320 Speaker 3: high line. They're going to condense the space in midfield. 962 00:43:34,320 --> 00:43:36,759 Speaker 3: That's going to be constant runners and Charleston is gonna 963 00:43:36,760 --> 00:43:40,480 Speaker 3: be out, which means it's gonna be sown Werner and Johnson. 964 00:43:40,080 --> 00:43:42,680 Speaker 2: Here, which it was in the previous meeting. 965 00:43:42,520 --> 00:43:45,000 Speaker 3: Right, and that is well Verner didn't play. 966 00:43:45,080 --> 00:43:47,000 Speaker 2: But yeah, excuse me not Berner. 967 00:43:47,440 --> 00:43:50,560 Speaker 4: I think they started, uhl they started, No, they started 968 00:43:50,600 --> 00:43:51,360 Speaker 4: Brian Hill. 969 00:43:51,560 --> 00:43:54,440 Speaker 3: Oh right, oh geez. But anyway, it kind of gets 970 00:43:54,440 --> 00:43:56,000 Speaker 3: to the point which is like, oh, if you were 971 00:43:56,000 --> 00:43:58,040 Speaker 3: telling me we're gonna have to run in behind a 972 00:43:58,080 --> 00:44:01,080 Speaker 3: defense a bunch I mean, I take Tiamo, Verner, Brennan 973 00:44:01,120 --> 00:44:04,080 Speaker 3: Johnson and Saw and over most of the teams in 974 00:44:04,120 --> 00:44:07,400 Speaker 3: the league, so that's fun. And then Villa at the 975 00:44:07,400 --> 00:44:10,640 Speaker 3: other end, they're conceding over two expected goals per match 976 00:44:10,719 --> 00:44:13,319 Speaker 3: the last two months, but they're creating two point one 977 00:44:13,440 --> 00:44:17,720 Speaker 3: xtg so they're they've kind of made it work. And uh, 978 00:44:17,760 --> 00:44:21,960 Speaker 3: three and a half even money. It's so crazy to 979 00:44:22,000 --> 00:44:23,880 Speaker 3: be betting overs in Villa. Totten them at three and 980 00:44:23,880 --> 00:44:25,680 Speaker 3: a half even money, but I think it's a little low. 981 00:44:26,280 --> 00:44:28,880 Speaker 2: I think it is too. I got three point nine goals. 982 00:44:28,640 --> 00:44:29,960 Speaker 3: For this man, I'm closer to three eight. 983 00:44:29,960 --> 00:44:30,600 Speaker 2: But yeah, I know. 984 00:44:30,719 --> 00:44:33,160 Speaker 4: I know Constant will be back for Villa, so that 985 00:44:33,239 --> 00:44:36,719 Speaker 4: obviously helps them a little bit. But Kamara is out 986 00:44:36,760 --> 00:44:38,919 Speaker 4: and then Jacob Ramsey picked up an injury as well, 987 00:44:38,960 --> 00:44:41,920 Speaker 4: so it's gonna be Zaniolo probably no defense guests of 988 00:44:41,960 --> 00:44:44,239 Speaker 4: starting our Teleman's or no defense somebody starting in the 989 00:44:44,239 --> 00:44:47,520 Speaker 4: midfield there, which there's no ball winning there. So you know, 990 00:44:48,320 --> 00:44:50,960 Speaker 4: James Madison was not available for this match in the 991 00:44:50,960 --> 00:44:53,680 Speaker 4: previous one and he is obviously so crucial to Tottenham's 992 00:44:53,680 --> 00:44:55,680 Speaker 4: build up and their ability to play through the central 993 00:44:55,680 --> 00:45:00,000 Speaker 4: parts of the pitch, which you know, I mean Tom, 994 00:45:00,200 --> 00:45:01,919 Speaker 4: they can they can play balls and over the top, 995 00:45:02,040 --> 00:45:03,640 Speaker 4: or they can play through the middle. Here against Villa, 996 00:45:03,680 --> 00:45:06,399 Speaker 4: I mean, what is Villa gonna do to actually stop them? 997 00:45:06,480 --> 00:45:08,920 Speaker 4: Like you just mentioned it. Two expected goals for ninety 998 00:45:08,920 --> 00:45:13,439 Speaker 4: over the last two months, and you know Toddam's gonna 999 00:45:13,440 --> 00:45:15,160 Speaker 4: play their high line as well. I know Emerson and 1000 00:45:15,200 --> 00:45:17,120 Speaker 4: Ben Davies were the center back pairing the last time 1001 00:45:17,120 --> 00:45:18,040 Speaker 4: that they faced Villa. 1002 00:45:19,920 --> 00:45:20,360 Speaker 2: But Villa. 1003 00:45:20,560 --> 00:45:22,799 Speaker 4: You know what's funny is I went back and watched 1004 00:45:22,800 --> 00:45:24,759 Speaker 4: the highlights from that match. Not only you know he 1005 00:45:24,880 --> 00:45:26,719 Speaker 4: ended up two to one, you know, Askedton Villa one 1006 00:45:26,880 --> 00:45:30,440 Speaker 4: and there was you know, close to four expected goals created. 1007 00:45:30,640 --> 00:45:32,920 Speaker 4: There were three goals of Vard off dude off side, Yes, 1008 00:45:32,960 --> 00:45:35,799 Speaker 4: like one of them Watkins was off by like just 1009 00:45:35,840 --> 00:45:39,160 Speaker 4: a toenail. A couple others were like so close for Tottenham. 1010 00:45:39,480 --> 00:45:43,320 Speaker 4: So I just don't see a scenario how this match 1011 00:45:43,480 --> 00:45:45,799 Speaker 4: like ends one to one with like two point one 1012 00:45:45,840 --> 00:45:48,400 Speaker 4: expected goals created, Like I just given them style of 1013 00:45:48,440 --> 00:45:52,080 Speaker 4: play of both of these teams. And also I mean Villa, 1014 00:45:52,440 --> 00:45:54,400 Speaker 4: we have to say every week they're so bad at 1015 00:45:54,400 --> 00:45:58,759 Speaker 4: defending set pieces. They conceded two against Lootontown in their 1016 00:45:58,800 --> 00:46:03,480 Speaker 4: previous match last match, Excuna be Tottenham actually is a 1017 00:46:03,480 --> 00:46:06,359 Speaker 4: top ten team on set pieces. They've been decent on them. 1018 00:46:06,400 --> 00:46:09,080 Speaker 4: They're not great, but they are decent. Madison being the 1019 00:46:09,239 --> 00:46:12,879 Speaker 4: advantages there no Diego Carlos and no Kamara. You lose 1020 00:46:12,920 --> 00:46:15,800 Speaker 4: to your biggest physical presences on set pieces as well. 1021 00:46:16,440 --> 00:46:20,680 Speaker 4: So I don't see how this. Yeah again, I say this. 1022 00:46:20,760 --> 00:46:22,520 Speaker 4: I've been saying this lately in a lot of these 1023 00:46:22,560 --> 00:46:24,600 Speaker 4: matches where it's like, all right, I'm gonna bet the over. 1024 00:46:25,239 --> 00:46:27,400 Speaker 4: I don't think you're gonna walk away from this match 1025 00:46:27,760 --> 00:46:30,200 Speaker 4: if you lose it and be like, yeah, I should 1026 00:46:30,200 --> 00:46:32,000 Speaker 4: have lost, Like that game was going way under the 1027 00:46:32,120 --> 00:46:33,840 Speaker 4: entire time. I think you're gonna walk away from this 1028 00:46:33,920 --> 00:46:36,520 Speaker 4: match and being like I should have won that, or hey, 1029 00:46:36,560 --> 00:46:37,640 Speaker 4: we did win it, great, awesome. 1030 00:46:37,680 --> 00:46:40,520 Speaker 3: We actually won a bet kind of like Villa in 1031 00:46:40,560 --> 00:46:41,360 Speaker 3: Boxing Day in. 1032 00:46:41,360 --> 00:46:42,880 Speaker 2: The style of play from these two teams. 1033 00:46:43,040 --> 00:46:45,040 Speaker 3: When you play Villa in Boxing Day. And it was 1034 00:46:45,120 --> 00:46:46,520 Speaker 3: right after the holidays, so a lot of my friends 1035 00:46:46,520 --> 00:46:49,120 Speaker 3: who don't even bet soccer regularly were tailing it and 1036 00:46:49,160 --> 00:46:51,040 Speaker 3: they were like really in and watching the match and 1037 00:46:51,080 --> 00:46:53,200 Speaker 3: they were getting so annoyed because United had like a 1038 00:46:53,200 --> 00:46:54,920 Speaker 3: goal of art off and they were like kept getting 1039 00:46:54,920 --> 00:46:57,279 Speaker 3: called off side, and I'm like, look like this damn 1040 00:46:57,360 --> 00:47:00,680 Speaker 3: is gonna break. And with Tottenham matches all year, it 1041 00:47:00,719 --> 00:47:03,920 Speaker 3: has felt like that, even when you're like sitting there 1042 00:47:03,960 --> 00:47:05,080 Speaker 3: with an under like I had a three and a 1043 00:47:05,120 --> 00:47:07,480 Speaker 3: half and they played Bourne myth the first half like 1044 00:47:07,520 --> 00:47:09,879 Speaker 3: it was I think nil nil, and I felt pretty good. 1045 00:47:10,360 --> 00:47:13,000 Speaker 3: Maybe it was one nil. I felt like pretty good 1046 00:47:13,080 --> 00:47:14,880 Speaker 3: about the fact that there weren't a ton of chances, 1047 00:47:15,040 --> 00:47:16,400 Speaker 3: but there weren't a ton of chances, but there were 1048 00:47:16,440 --> 00:47:19,720 Speaker 3: so many chances to have chances that didn't turn into chances, 1049 00:47:19,760 --> 00:47:22,680 Speaker 3: if you know what I'm saying, Like almost xg almost shots. 1050 00:47:22,719 --> 00:47:25,279 Speaker 3: Almost this one pass was off by a yard or 1051 00:47:25,320 --> 00:47:27,359 Speaker 3: else they would have had like a clear one on 1052 00:47:27,360 --> 00:47:29,040 Speaker 3: one with the goalie. And then of course the game 1053 00:47:29,120 --> 00:47:31,720 Speaker 3: end three to one. And that's happened so many times 1054 00:47:31,719 --> 00:47:34,640 Speaker 3: in Tottenham matches this year, like last weekend they played 1055 00:47:34,640 --> 00:47:37,359 Speaker 3: Palace nil nail halftime as I hit a banger one 1056 00:47:37,400 --> 00:47:39,120 Speaker 3: defensive air. Now it's one to one, then it's two 1057 00:47:39,160 --> 00:47:41,600 Speaker 3: to one, once it's two to one. Tottenham are so 1058 00:47:42,600 --> 00:47:44,759 Speaker 3: much a live over team when they play in those 1059 00:47:44,760 --> 00:47:47,000 Speaker 3: game states, and that will get you potentially that fourth 1060 00:47:47,040 --> 00:47:49,920 Speaker 3: goal either way. If it's two to one late with 1061 00:47:50,040 --> 00:47:52,359 Speaker 3: like five ten minutes to go, the way they add 1062 00:47:52,400 --> 00:47:55,160 Speaker 3: stoppage time, there's gonna be so much time and chances 1063 00:47:55,200 --> 00:47:58,080 Speaker 3: to get like multiple goals, and neither team can defend 1064 00:47:58,080 --> 00:48:00,839 Speaker 3: the lead. So it's gonna be very interesting. And I 1065 00:48:01,000 --> 00:48:03,200 Speaker 3: like the over as well. All right, Brighton Forrest now 1066 00:48:03,920 --> 00:48:05,719 Speaker 3: I like the under three here a minus one time. 1067 00:48:05,800 --> 00:48:08,360 Speaker 3: I think you agree this total is just a little high. 1068 00:48:08,440 --> 00:48:10,760 Speaker 3: The problem is who's playing for Brighton. I mean, Deservey 1069 00:48:10,760 --> 00:48:12,960 Speaker 3: has gone too far, I think with the rotating, but 1070 00:48:13,040 --> 00:48:15,160 Speaker 3: he's had some injury problems he's had somewhere he doesn't 1071 00:48:15,160 --> 00:48:16,840 Speaker 3: have a choice. But at this point of the season 1072 00:48:16,880 --> 00:48:20,480 Speaker 3: for Brighton, they have a chance to make a Europa 1073 00:48:20,560 --> 00:48:22,000 Speaker 3: League run. Here, I mean they're like a coin flip 1074 00:48:22,040 --> 00:48:25,960 Speaker 3: against Roma. The first legist is Thursday, second legus next Thursday. 1075 00:48:26,200 --> 00:48:28,359 Speaker 3: This match is not as important and so you could 1076 00:48:28,360 --> 00:48:31,120 Speaker 3: see some rotation from Brighton's top attackers. You can see 1077 00:48:31,120 --> 00:48:33,400 Speaker 3: them kind of playing this on light mode. And for 1078 00:48:33,560 --> 00:48:35,160 Speaker 3: Us is a team that is not going to press. 1079 00:48:35,200 --> 00:48:37,760 Speaker 3: They're not going to forest high turnovers. They're not going 1080 00:48:37,800 --> 00:48:40,120 Speaker 3: to turn this into a frenetic back and forth. They're 1081 00:48:40,120 --> 00:48:42,799 Speaker 3: going to sit deep, kind of go with the more 1082 00:48:42,840 --> 00:48:46,600 Speaker 3: passive approach. And Brighton's defense is not as bad as 1083 00:48:46,640 --> 00:48:47,600 Speaker 3: maybe the narrative is. 1084 00:48:47,960 --> 00:48:51,000 Speaker 2: So I like, Kender, I'm kind of souring on a 1085 00:48:51,000 --> 00:48:53,000 Speaker 2: little bit. Whoa, whoa, whoa. Pause. 1086 00:48:53,239 --> 00:48:53,920 Speaker 3: I can't say that. 1087 00:48:54,000 --> 00:48:56,080 Speaker 4: I can't say that. Okay, well I'm just saying okay, 1088 00:48:56,080 --> 00:48:56,960 Speaker 4: So here's here's where it comes. 1089 00:48:57,080 --> 00:49:00,840 Speaker 3: That's it. That's that's one of the seven of the podcast. 1090 00:49:01,000 --> 00:49:01,239 Speaker 2: I know. 1091 00:49:02,760 --> 00:49:05,960 Speaker 4: Well, no I'm not. He's this Grand Potter's team right now. 1092 00:49:05,960 --> 00:49:06,520 Speaker 4: I'm just kidding. 1093 00:49:08,320 --> 00:49:10,239 Speaker 3: The thing is like Brighton's and ninth and everybody's like, 1094 00:49:10,239 --> 00:49:12,200 Speaker 3: what a terrible season for Brighton, and it's like, wait 1095 00:49:12,200 --> 00:49:14,440 Speaker 3: a minute, I know, And I'm like I sold there, 1096 00:49:14,480 --> 00:49:15,840 Speaker 3: like two of their three best players. 1097 00:49:15,880 --> 00:49:17,680 Speaker 4: I told you on Monday because I bet Brighton against 1098 00:49:17,680 --> 00:49:18,839 Speaker 4: full of them. I was like, I'm just done with them, 1099 00:49:18,920 --> 00:49:21,440 Speaker 4: Like I just can't do it anymore. But what it 1100 00:49:21,440 --> 00:49:26,879 Speaker 4: comes down to is Deserbe has plan A right, which 1101 00:49:26,920 --> 00:49:29,280 Speaker 4: Plan A is to bait you into pressing, find the freeman, 1102 00:49:29,360 --> 00:49:31,560 Speaker 4: and let's get a transition opportunity going forward and we're 1103 00:49:31,560 --> 00:49:33,680 Speaker 4: gonna play through you that way, we're gonna get four three, 1104 00:49:33,800 --> 00:49:36,040 Speaker 4: We're gonna get four three overloads and build up, and 1105 00:49:36,040 --> 00:49:38,720 Speaker 4: we're just gonna constantly do that. What we've been seeing 1106 00:49:38,800 --> 00:49:42,719 Speaker 4: this year is he's been figured out. It's when Plan 1107 00:49:42,800 --> 00:49:46,120 Speaker 4: A doesn't work A, which is essentially what Forest is 1108 00:49:46,160 --> 00:49:48,640 Speaker 4: gonna do. Aka sit in a very very passive low 1109 00:49:48,680 --> 00:49:50,360 Speaker 4: block and say we're not even going to try to 1110 00:49:50,400 --> 00:49:54,440 Speaker 4: press you. There is no plan B. And his philosophy 1111 00:49:54,520 --> 00:49:57,239 Speaker 4: is Plan A is so good, we don't need a 1112 00:49:57,280 --> 00:50:00,319 Speaker 4: plan B, and teams will eventually have to press us. 1113 00:50:00,800 --> 00:50:00,880 Speaker 2: Well. 1114 00:50:00,920 --> 00:50:03,399 Speaker 4: When teams don't do that, we've seen Brighton have had 1115 00:50:03,680 --> 00:50:06,600 Speaker 4: a lot of struggles at breaking down low blocks. Then 1116 00:50:06,640 --> 00:50:08,799 Speaker 4: you look at who's not available for Brighton right now. 1117 00:50:09,480 --> 00:50:11,440 Speaker 4: Matoma is probably gonna be out for the for the 1118 00:50:11,560 --> 00:50:14,279 Speaker 4: entire season. When Brighton wants to play through the middle 1119 00:50:14,320 --> 00:50:16,560 Speaker 4: of the pitch, he often gets in one v one 1120 00:50:16,640 --> 00:50:18,799 Speaker 4: situations out wide and creates a lot of chances and 1121 00:50:18,840 --> 00:50:21,120 Speaker 4: creates havoc and has been so good for them that way. 1122 00:50:21,440 --> 00:50:24,719 Speaker 4: Not having that is a big problem. Jo Pedro, he's 1123 00:50:24,760 --> 00:50:26,960 Speaker 4: also out for this match. He leads them in goals. 1124 00:50:27,000 --> 00:50:29,520 Speaker 4: He leads them at ex x cheper ninety at point 1125 00:50:29,520 --> 00:50:31,880 Speaker 4: five four. Nobody on Brighton is above point three to 1126 00:50:31,960 --> 00:50:35,879 Speaker 4: five outside of him, So we have another situation where 1127 00:50:35,920 --> 00:50:38,960 Speaker 4: it's deserbe versus a low block, and we just saw 1128 00:50:39,000 --> 00:50:41,080 Speaker 4: him play three straight Teams that play are going to 1129 00:50:41,120 --> 00:50:44,880 Speaker 4: play the exact same way as Nottingham Forest. He played 1130 00:50:45,280 --> 00:50:47,319 Speaker 4: Fullham in the previous match, he played Wolves in the 1131 00:50:47,400 --> 00:50:50,000 Speaker 4: FA Cup and then they played Everton. They didn't create 1132 00:50:50,040 --> 00:50:52,600 Speaker 4: over one point five expected goals in any of those matches, 1133 00:50:53,000 --> 00:50:55,560 Speaker 4: so I have two point six goals for this match. 1134 00:50:56,200 --> 00:50:57,880 Speaker 4: I think this is a really really good under. I 1135 00:50:57,880 --> 00:50:59,600 Speaker 4: think it's gonna be very very slow paced match. You 1136 00:50:59,640 --> 00:51:01,919 Speaker 4: look at the previous match. It ended three to two, 1137 00:51:01,960 --> 00:51:04,200 Speaker 4: but there were two penalties in there, and really, if 1138 00:51:04,239 --> 00:51:07,960 Speaker 4: you take away those two penalties, were at one point 1139 00:51:08,040 --> 00:51:12,120 Speaker 4: seven non penalty for the entire match. So Thunders never 1140 00:51:12,160 --> 00:51:15,399 Speaker 4: win in the Premier League. Maybe this one, Well, there 1141 00:51:15,400 --> 00:51:15,680 Speaker 4: we go. 1142 00:51:15,920 --> 00:51:18,080 Speaker 3: I got two this weekend, so I'm kind of sweating 1143 00:51:18,120 --> 00:51:22,719 Speaker 3: it all right. Monday night football Chelsea Newcastle. Oh sorry 1144 00:51:22,719 --> 00:51:25,080 Speaker 3: I skipped one. We have west Ham Burnley. I have nothing, 1145 00:51:25,160 --> 00:51:25,680 Speaker 3: you have nothing. 1146 00:51:26,120 --> 00:51:26,760 Speaker 2: I have nothing. 1147 00:51:27,280 --> 00:51:28,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't even want to talk about Burnley. 1148 00:51:29,480 --> 00:51:31,360 Speaker 2: They are so uninteresting boring to me. 1149 00:51:31,560 --> 00:51:33,799 Speaker 3: Yeah, the one team who can attack in the year 1150 00:51:33,840 --> 00:51:37,880 Speaker 3: everybody can score them in Sheffield. So Chelsea Newcastle Monday 1151 00:51:37,920 --> 00:51:40,680 Speaker 3: Night three and a half is plus one twenty over 1152 00:51:41,080 --> 00:51:43,680 Speaker 3: since the new year. Chelsea's allowing one point nine non 1153 00:51:43,680 --> 00:51:47,680 Speaker 3: penalty XG per match, Newcastle two point one. Both teams 1154 00:51:47,719 --> 00:51:50,879 Speaker 3: are over one and a half and conceding constant high 1155 00:51:50,960 --> 00:51:55,479 Speaker 3: quality chances. What's the game state where this doesn't go over? 1156 00:51:56,000 --> 00:51:58,840 Speaker 3: I think it's Chelsea doesn't make any of their finishing 1157 00:51:59,360 --> 00:52:02,040 Speaker 3: because Newcastle don't really have a path to defend them effectively. 1158 00:52:02,320 --> 00:52:05,920 Speaker 4: Yeah, our Newcastle just suddenly decides to change back to 1159 00:52:05,480 --> 00:52:07,440 Speaker 4: the four or five one, which I don't see a 1160 00:52:07,440 --> 00:52:12,640 Speaker 4: scenario why they would ever do that, but yeah, it's 1161 00:52:12,840 --> 00:52:14,840 Speaker 4: you know, here's the thing is that, and I mentioned 1162 00:52:14,840 --> 00:52:20,160 Speaker 4: this with new Newcastle, is that they've established and you know, 1163 00:52:20,200 --> 00:52:24,719 Speaker 4: when Newcastle was at their best, their pressing structure was 1164 00:52:24,920 --> 00:52:27,279 Speaker 4: very very similar to what Arsenal is doing right now. 1165 00:52:27,320 --> 00:52:29,360 Speaker 4: So what Arsenal is doing right now is they press 1166 00:52:29,440 --> 00:52:32,799 Speaker 4: with their front six and obviously the fullbacks come and 1167 00:52:32,840 --> 00:52:34,680 Speaker 4: aid and so they make it very very difficult on 1168 00:52:34,719 --> 00:52:37,960 Speaker 4: you and then they just concede the space like on 1169 00:52:38,080 --> 00:52:40,320 Speaker 4: balls over the top, right in front of the center backs. 1170 00:52:40,600 --> 00:52:42,799 Speaker 4: And the theory behind it is right, because if you 1171 00:52:42,880 --> 00:52:46,839 Speaker 4: press like generally something, something's going to be open on 1172 00:52:46,880 --> 00:52:49,960 Speaker 4: the pitch. The theory is that if we leave that 1173 00:52:50,040 --> 00:52:51,839 Speaker 4: space in the middle part of the pitch in front 1174 00:52:51,840 --> 00:52:53,800 Speaker 4: of the center backs, like we believe we have talented 1175 00:52:53,880 --> 00:52:56,160 Speaker 4: enough players that can go win those type of balls 1176 00:52:56,160 --> 00:52:57,400 Speaker 4: when they try to play over the top, or we 1177 00:52:57,400 --> 00:52:59,200 Speaker 4: have good enough center backs that could pick those off. 1178 00:52:59,640 --> 00:53:02,680 Speaker 4: It's been generally true for Arsenal when Newcastle was at 1179 00:53:02,719 --> 00:53:05,720 Speaker 4: their best, when Joel Linton was healthy, when Gemeris was healthy, 1180 00:53:05,760 --> 00:53:09,719 Speaker 4: when even Sandro Tanali was available to play. They were 1181 00:53:09,800 --> 00:53:13,160 Speaker 4: so good at this pressing structure. And now we're in 1182 00:53:13,160 --> 00:53:15,799 Speaker 4: a situation where Joel Linton's not availab obviously it's not 1183 00:53:15,760 --> 00:53:19,600 Speaker 4: a he's not available forever. And those midfielders who made 1184 00:53:19,640 --> 00:53:21,600 Speaker 4: those runs to protect that area right in front of 1185 00:53:21,600 --> 00:53:26,960 Speaker 4: the center backs, because shar And and Botman are slow 1186 00:53:27,000 --> 00:53:30,000 Speaker 4: and not very good at getting up there, they've said, okay, 1187 00:53:30,520 --> 00:53:33,520 Speaker 4: well let's go more passive, because like we got to 1188 00:53:33,560 --> 00:53:35,960 Speaker 4: protect our back line, we got to you know, we'll 1189 00:53:35,960 --> 00:53:37,880 Speaker 4: try to win more balls in the midfield and everything, 1190 00:53:38,239 --> 00:53:40,920 Speaker 4: and now they've just Eddie How's like, well, that didn't work, 1191 00:53:40,960 --> 00:53:42,800 Speaker 4: so we got to flip the other way. So now 1192 00:53:43,600 --> 00:53:47,720 Speaker 4: shar And and botmen are up here and they're pressing 1193 00:53:47,760 --> 00:53:50,279 Speaker 4: and they're going man to man against the opposing attackers, 1194 00:53:50,680 --> 00:53:53,680 Speaker 4: and so that creates a very back and forth type match, 1195 00:53:53,719 --> 00:53:56,560 Speaker 4: which is what Newcastle wants right now, and it's their 1196 00:53:56,600 --> 00:53:59,480 Speaker 4: best option with the personnel available. And what we know 1197 00:53:59,480 --> 00:54:02,080 Speaker 4: about chill See is when are they at their best 1198 00:54:02,239 --> 00:54:03,440 Speaker 4: when they're playing in transition. 1199 00:54:03,800 --> 00:54:06,720 Speaker 2: They're not very good. When they teams play. 1200 00:54:06,560 --> 00:54:08,120 Speaker 4: Low blocks, they hand them the ball and say all right, 1201 00:54:08,120 --> 00:54:09,919 Speaker 4: here you go, Chelsea trying to break us down. They're 1202 00:54:09,920 --> 00:54:13,000 Speaker 4: not really good in that sense. So I agree with you. 1203 00:54:13,000 --> 00:54:17,000 Speaker 4: I don't really see similar to kind of aston Villa 1204 00:54:17,160 --> 00:54:20,279 Speaker 4: and Tottenham. I don't really see a scenario where you're 1205 00:54:20,320 --> 00:54:22,759 Speaker 4: going to walk away from this match and be like 1206 00:54:23,520 --> 00:54:26,440 Speaker 4: that was stone cold under, like couldn't believe it. There 1207 00:54:26,480 --> 00:54:28,600 Speaker 4: was like point eight expectacle over the entire match. It's 1208 00:54:28,640 --> 00:54:30,960 Speaker 4: like nothing happened, Like no, this is going to be 1209 00:54:31,120 --> 00:54:33,600 Speaker 4: very very end to end style. And even I know 1210 00:54:33,640 --> 00:54:35,759 Speaker 4: Wolves only created you knower point seven. I think it 1211 00:54:35,800 --> 00:54:38,160 Speaker 4: was for the entire match. They had so many transition 1212 00:54:38,239 --> 00:54:40,400 Speaker 4: opportunities that you know, they just didn't get a shot 1213 00:54:40,400 --> 00:54:43,560 Speaker 4: off of. So with Newcastle playing a high line the 1214 00:54:43,640 --> 00:54:46,239 Speaker 4: runners that Chelsea has to get in behind them, and 1215 00:54:46,280 --> 00:54:48,400 Speaker 4: with the fact that Chelsea's also not great in transition 1216 00:54:48,480 --> 00:54:50,920 Speaker 4: defense either when they lose the ball, this is going 1217 00:54:50,960 --> 00:54:53,399 Speaker 4: to be very, very end to end and Newcastle also 1218 00:54:53,440 --> 00:54:55,080 Speaker 4: could force a lot of high sern overs Force nine 1219 00:54:55,120 --> 00:54:56,640 Speaker 4: in the previous meeting could do the same year. 1220 00:54:56,760 --> 00:54:58,879 Speaker 3: All right, that concludes the prem We got a short 1221 00:54:58,920 --> 00:55:01,239 Speaker 3: and slate next weekend, so we'll have more time to 1222 00:55:01,239 --> 00:55:03,600 Speaker 3: get into the other leagues. We don't have a ton 1223 00:55:03,640 --> 00:55:06,360 Speaker 3: of time to get into the Bundesliga Siria La Liga 1224 00:55:06,480 --> 00:55:08,480 Speaker 3: League on not a ton of great matches this weekend 1225 00:55:09,040 --> 00:55:10,160 Speaker 3: Bundesliga bj. 1226 00:55:10,520 --> 00:55:16,320 Speaker 4: Blodboch minus one twenty at home against Cologne Big Derby. 1227 00:55:16,880 --> 00:55:21,120 Speaker 4: I think yes, Big Derby. You know, Glodbok has been 1228 00:55:21,160 --> 00:55:23,120 Speaker 4: in the bottom half of the table for most of the season, 1229 00:55:23,239 --> 00:55:25,960 Speaker 4: but the reason they're there is because they're just struggling 1230 00:55:26,000 --> 00:55:28,320 Speaker 4: against good teams. When they play against teams in the 1231 00:55:28,360 --> 00:55:30,120 Speaker 4: bottom half of the table, they have a plus six 1232 00:55:30,120 --> 00:55:34,319 Speaker 4: point one expect a gold differential. And you know, for 1233 00:55:34,360 --> 00:55:37,000 Speaker 4: any of you had who had Daniel Farka being mentioned 1234 00:55:37,320 --> 00:55:39,080 Speaker 4: over one and a half on this episode, you're about 1235 00:55:39,080 --> 00:55:41,840 Speaker 4: to cash like one hundred and one. Because one of 1236 00:55:41,880 --> 00:55:44,239 Speaker 4: the main weaknesses that Glodbock had under Farca for a 1237 00:55:44,239 --> 00:55:46,960 Speaker 4: long time is like they were trying to press and 1238 00:55:47,000 --> 00:55:50,200 Speaker 4: they generally weren't good in transition defense. Well, now they've 1239 00:55:50,200 --> 00:55:53,120 Speaker 4: gone the other way where they've now playing very very passively, 1240 00:55:53,200 --> 00:55:55,359 Speaker 4: like they're dead last and pass per defensive action. They've 1241 00:55:55,400 --> 00:55:57,920 Speaker 4: forced the second fewest high turnovers and it hasn't made 1242 00:55:57,920 --> 00:56:01,920 Speaker 4: their defense better. But they have been at home. You know, 1243 00:56:02,080 --> 00:56:04,959 Speaker 4: they're fourteen point eight expected goals loud in twelve matches 1244 00:56:04,960 --> 00:56:06,640 Speaker 4: at home. They've just generally been really bad on the 1245 00:56:06,680 --> 00:56:09,200 Speaker 4: road plus three point seven expected goal to FRENCHI at 1246 00:56:09,200 --> 00:56:11,520 Speaker 4: home generally been very good there. They've been a good 1247 00:56:11,560 --> 00:56:14,480 Speaker 4: transition team second and final third box entry conversion rate 1248 00:56:14,760 --> 00:56:18,359 Speaker 4: taking on Cologne, who I mean, they're allowing they're one 1249 00:56:18,360 --> 00:56:20,520 Speaker 4: of the worst teams. It wasn't for Darmstadt, they'd be 1250 00:56:20,560 --> 00:56:21,520 Speaker 4: the worst by far. 1251 00:56:21,560 --> 00:56:22,640 Speaker 2: Team in the Bundesliga. 1252 00:56:23,280 --> 00:56:27,359 Speaker 4: They have won the expected goals battle three times in 1253 00:56:27,600 --> 00:56:30,759 Speaker 4: twenty four matches. Two of those matches they were playing 1254 00:56:30,800 --> 00:56:32,640 Speaker 4: up man for a significant amount of time. The other 1255 00:56:32,680 --> 00:56:35,680 Speaker 4: one came against Darmstad. They are so so bad and 1256 00:56:35,719 --> 00:56:39,840 Speaker 4: this line to me is very undervaluing a good Glodbock 1257 00:56:39,880 --> 00:56:42,839 Speaker 4: team that is finally healthy. So Glodboch minus one twenty. 1258 00:56:42,960 --> 00:56:46,640 Speaker 3: Good is a stretch on Glodloch. They are in pretty 1259 00:56:46,680 --> 00:56:49,279 Speaker 3: good space from the relegation zone now nine points, so 1260 00:56:49,280 --> 00:56:52,440 Speaker 3: they probably not gonna get relegated, but I would not 1261 00:56:52,520 --> 00:56:55,239 Speaker 3: call them good. But they are certainly a little cheap 1262 00:56:55,239 --> 00:56:57,440 Speaker 3: here that the markets just liked Cologne to bounce back 1263 00:56:57,520 --> 00:57:00,600 Speaker 3: more than we all do, and maybe they're right, but 1264 00:57:00,680 --> 00:57:02,160 Speaker 3: like at some point they need to show it and 1265 00:57:02,200 --> 00:57:05,239 Speaker 3: they're not really doing that, so more power to you. 1266 00:57:05,520 --> 00:57:08,239 Speaker 3: I kind of agree. So bom plus one forty for 1267 00:57:08,280 --> 00:57:12,640 Speaker 3: me at home against Freiburg classic Europa League fade spot 1268 00:57:12,760 --> 00:57:15,840 Speaker 3: for Freiburg in the middle of their matchup with west 1269 00:57:15,840 --> 00:57:18,480 Speaker 3: Ham where they go on the road where they're not 1270 00:57:18,560 --> 00:57:20,960 Speaker 3: nearly as good away from the Black Forest. Their numbers 1271 00:57:21,000 --> 00:57:23,400 Speaker 3: don't hold up on the road against a Bocham team 1272 00:57:23,440 --> 00:57:25,200 Speaker 3: who is kind of the most checko and hide in 1273 00:57:25,240 --> 00:57:27,280 Speaker 3: Germany in the sense that you really never know what 1274 00:57:27,320 --> 00:57:28,800 Speaker 3: you're gonna get on a week to week basis. Like 1275 00:57:28,800 --> 00:57:31,000 Speaker 3: we saw them beat Byron not that long ago. They 1276 00:57:31,000 --> 00:57:34,160 Speaker 3: were very competitive at home against Leipzig until they fell 1277 00:57:34,160 --> 00:57:36,120 Speaker 3: apart in a three minute stretch gave up three goals. 1278 00:57:36,480 --> 00:57:38,520 Speaker 3: And then in the middle of those games where they 1279 00:57:38,520 --> 00:57:41,000 Speaker 3: beat Byron and were competitive with Leipzig, they got waxed 1280 00:57:41,040 --> 00:57:43,520 Speaker 3: at glod boch five to two. But at home here 1281 00:57:43,720 --> 00:57:47,720 Speaker 3: I like this Bochum team. They have been a positive 1282 00:57:47,840 --> 00:57:49,680 Speaker 3: XG difference and goal difference team at home this year, 1283 00:57:49,720 --> 00:57:52,440 Speaker 3: and I think that holds up given that away from 1284 00:57:52,440 --> 00:57:54,920 Speaker 3: home there minus one point five actually difference per ninety 1285 00:57:55,000 --> 00:57:57,720 Speaker 3: So like backing them at home plus one forty at 1286 00:57:57,720 --> 00:58:01,680 Speaker 3: home in a good spot against Freiberg. Also, like Mines Minds, 1287 00:58:01,720 --> 00:58:04,680 Speaker 3: hosting Mines continues to be a bit of a bed on, 1288 00:58:04,880 --> 00:58:07,560 Speaker 3: especially as a dog. They were good against Leverkusen, very 1289 00:58:07,600 --> 00:58:12,720 Speaker 3: competitive in that match after Leverkusen got another early goal 1290 00:58:12,800 --> 00:58:15,680 Speaker 3: from from Grimaldo. But they're not great as a favorite. 1291 00:58:15,680 --> 00:58:17,480 Speaker 3: But they're just playing a ton of coin flip matches. 1292 00:58:17,760 --> 00:58:20,040 Speaker 3: They played a coin flip at Leverkusen, a coin flip 1293 00:58:20,040 --> 00:58:22,960 Speaker 3: at home against Glad Bach coin flip at stute Gart 1294 00:58:23,040 --> 00:58:25,760 Speaker 3: coin flip against every match they plays close because their 1295 00:58:25,800 --> 00:58:27,960 Speaker 3: defense is still very good. They just can't score this 1296 00:58:28,040 --> 00:58:30,800 Speaker 3: year and as a result they are in the relegation 1297 00:58:30,880 --> 00:58:32,960 Speaker 3: zone despite like pretty average numbers. So I think they're 1298 00:58:32,960 --> 00:58:34,880 Speaker 3: competitive with Byron. They're gonna get on the board, probably 1299 00:58:34,880 --> 00:58:37,160 Speaker 3: lose two to one, but they'll be in the mix 1300 00:58:37,200 --> 00:58:39,520 Speaker 3: covering the plus two and even money. So I like them. 1301 00:58:39,840 --> 00:58:42,400 Speaker 3: And in Syria this is the there's levels to this bowl. 1302 00:58:42,760 --> 00:58:45,640 Speaker 3: Cagulary is minus one ten at home against BJ's Sournyitana. 1303 00:58:45,680 --> 00:58:47,880 Speaker 3: That's kind of crazy to me. Uh, they're like a 1304 00:58:47,960 --> 00:58:52,040 Speaker 3: half goal better and Soururnyitana's getting relegated. We're finally gonna 1305 00:58:52,080 --> 00:58:56,000 Speaker 3: catch a Sourny to relegation ticket. Finally. I think we've 1306 00:58:56,120 --> 00:58:58,240 Speaker 3: lost too, so there are plus three hundred is gonna 1307 00:58:58,520 --> 00:58:59,800 Speaker 3: make us just about even. 1308 00:58:59,840 --> 00:59:02,120 Speaker 2: But he won't even come on the pitch. 1309 00:59:02,280 --> 00:59:04,360 Speaker 4: He's so still still mad about not being moved to 1310 00:59:04,400 --> 00:59:05,880 Speaker 4: Wolves that he's refusing to go on the pitch. 1311 00:59:05,920 --> 00:59:06,480 Speaker 2: It's crazy. 1312 00:59:07,280 --> 00:59:09,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, I like cagular at home. 1313 00:59:09,880 --> 00:59:13,480 Speaker 4: Yeah, Rome Madrando bet Plussipital five on the road against 1314 00:59:13,680 --> 00:59:16,400 Speaker 4: Fiorentina just another fate of Fiorentina. I think I just 1315 00:59:16,440 --> 00:59:18,720 Speaker 4: do that every single time I come on the Syria section. 1316 00:59:18,880 --> 00:59:22,040 Speaker 4: But generally they just keep getting overvalued by the market 1317 00:59:22,200 --> 00:59:24,760 Speaker 4: for a team that is really good at building up. 1318 00:59:25,200 --> 00:59:27,320 Speaker 4: Once they get in the final third, it just everything 1319 00:59:27,400 --> 00:59:29,720 Speaker 4: falls apart. They're only averaging close to one point one 1320 00:59:29,800 --> 00:59:32,439 Speaker 4: non penalty actually for ninety minutes. Obviously, Rome is playing 1321 00:59:32,520 --> 00:59:35,200 Speaker 4: much differently under d Rossi. They have the three Europa 1322 00:59:35,280 --> 00:59:39,520 Speaker 4: League match against Brighton on Thursday. What's crazy about the 1323 00:59:39,600 --> 00:59:44,600 Speaker 4: Rome matches Since Darrossi took over there have been thirty 1324 00:59:44,600 --> 00:59:47,720 Speaker 4: two goals off of about twenty expected. Yeah, I would 1325 00:59:47,760 --> 00:59:50,520 Speaker 4: say it's been like nuts. Every girl's over except the 1326 00:59:50,640 --> 00:59:53,160 Speaker 4: ropeats in there too, so it's been like it's just 1327 00:59:53,200 --> 00:59:57,200 Speaker 4: been nuts. So eventually this like chaotic like you know, 1328 00:59:57,280 --> 00:59:59,520 Speaker 4: back and forth is gonna you know, come to an 1329 00:59:59,600 --> 01:00:03,480 Speaker 4: end at some point. But here I generally just think, 1330 01:00:03,480 --> 01:00:05,120 Speaker 4: I mean, Rome is still playing very well under him. 1331 01:00:05,160 --> 01:00:06,760 Speaker 4: It's not like they're playing bad. You know, they've won 1332 01:00:06,800 --> 01:00:08,880 Speaker 4: a lot of matches, but they're still have a positive 1333 01:00:08,880 --> 01:00:11,400 Speaker 4: expected gold differential, won the she battle in all but 1334 01:00:11,480 --> 01:00:13,520 Speaker 4: two of the matches that he's been charged for, so 1335 01:00:15,320 --> 01:00:18,760 Speaker 4: decent spot here on the road against no valid overvalued 1336 01:00:18,920 --> 01:00:19,800 Speaker 4: Fiorantina team. 1337 01:00:19,880 --> 01:00:22,439 Speaker 3: It's really funny because I said, I said off the pod, 1338 01:00:22,520 --> 01:00:25,120 Speaker 3: like bet Rome overs markets, they're gonna play a little 1339 01:00:25,160 --> 01:00:28,480 Speaker 3: more open, and they have played different They switch from 1340 01:00:28,520 --> 01:00:29,920 Speaker 3: a three to five to two to a four four 1341 01:00:29,960 --> 01:00:31,760 Speaker 3: to three three, and it has freed up to Bala 1342 01:00:31,800 --> 01:00:34,400 Speaker 3: and Pellegreenny Moore and given them more freedom and it's 1343 01:00:34,400 --> 01:00:36,760 Speaker 3: resulted in more goals. But there are a lot of 1344 01:00:36,800 --> 01:00:38,360 Speaker 3: there's a lot of air in those numbers. They every 1345 01:00:38,400 --> 01:00:41,120 Speaker 3: Syria match they played, it's gone over two and a half, 1346 01:00:41,720 --> 01:00:44,280 Speaker 3: all of them, and I think it's six or seven. 1347 01:00:44,960 --> 01:00:47,720 Speaker 3: And yet like there's some penalty air and some finishing 1348 01:00:47,720 --> 01:00:49,560 Speaker 3: air in there. But again like there is some signal 1349 01:00:49,600 --> 01:00:51,880 Speaker 3: to it. But again like it won't be long until 1350 01:00:51,920 --> 01:00:54,520 Speaker 3: the market overreacts, maybe to say, well, they're still not 1351 01:00:54,560 --> 01:00:56,720 Speaker 3: pressing at all. They still play very passively at it, 1352 01:00:56,720 --> 01:00:59,400 Speaker 3: like they're not that different under de Rossi. He's also 1353 01:00:59,480 --> 01:01:01,760 Speaker 3: upgraded them in goal, which makes them more live for 1354 01:01:01,800 --> 01:01:04,280 Speaker 3: a Europa League run. If they can get past Brighton, 1355 01:01:04,320 --> 01:01:05,800 Speaker 3: which I don't know they will, that'll be a good 1356 01:01:05,800 --> 01:01:09,680 Speaker 3: matchup all right. La Liga. I like Sevilla al Maria 1357 01:01:09,720 --> 01:01:12,480 Speaker 3: over two and a half. Two really bad defenses and 1358 01:01:12,640 --> 01:01:16,040 Speaker 3: the Siri healthy for Sevia makes a big difference. Somebody 1359 01:01:16,080 --> 01:01:18,360 Speaker 3: in our discord mentioned like new manager for Sevilla, don't 1360 01:01:18,400 --> 01:01:20,360 Speaker 3: really want to fade them. They still can't defend anything, 1361 01:01:20,800 --> 01:01:22,920 Speaker 3: but they certainly seem to have more fresh ideas and 1362 01:01:23,000 --> 01:01:26,160 Speaker 3: attack and it looks, you know, when they can cross 1363 01:01:26,160 --> 01:01:28,400 Speaker 3: to end Asyria and he's still fit and available, which 1364 01:01:28,400 --> 01:01:29,920 Speaker 3: is not all the time, but right now he is. 1365 01:01:30,520 --> 01:01:32,800 Speaker 3: They're not a bad attacking team. So over two and 1366 01:01:32,800 --> 01:01:33,960 Speaker 3: a half for me in that one. 1367 01:01:34,240 --> 01:01:38,080 Speaker 4: Yeah, I like a both team to score. No here 1368 01:01:38,440 --> 01:01:45,080 Speaker 4: Madrid No actually lost Palmis and that's like billboo Man totals, 1369 01:01:45,280 --> 01:01:46,920 Speaker 4: there'll be a fun team to bet to be relegated 1370 01:01:47,000 --> 01:01:49,920 Speaker 4: next year because they have the worst expect goal differential 1371 01:01:50,040 --> 01:01:52,920 Speaker 4: in La Liga. With an even actual goal differential. They're 1372 01:01:52,920 --> 01:01:57,840 Speaker 4: sitting in the top half of the table, just overformed offensively. 1373 01:01:59,280 --> 01:02:02,640 Speaker 4: They control it ton of possession and I was watching 1374 01:02:02,680 --> 01:02:05,080 Speaker 4: a couple of clips from their match Agains also souna 1375 01:02:05,480 --> 01:02:07,720 Speaker 4: the goal they scored, they had like like close to 1376 01:02:07,800 --> 01:02:10,160 Speaker 4: thirty passes before they could pote the ball in the back, 1377 01:02:10,200 --> 01:02:12,640 Speaker 4: and that which is impressive, like controlling that much, but 1378 01:02:12,720 --> 01:02:16,000 Speaker 4: most of the time it's just passes to nothing like 1379 01:02:16,480 --> 01:02:19,600 Speaker 4: almost sixty percent possession and you're only averaging point seventy 1380 01:02:19,640 --> 01:02:21,600 Speaker 4: five to nine the actually for ninety minutes, even though 1381 01:02:21,600 --> 01:02:24,480 Speaker 4: you're getting the fifth most final throat entries. So essentially, yeah, 1382 01:02:24,520 --> 01:02:26,560 Speaker 4: you can pass the ball from center back to center back, 1383 01:02:27,120 --> 01:02:30,360 Speaker 4: but you're not breaking down any good defensive team in 1384 01:02:30,400 --> 01:02:33,040 Speaker 4: this league. And guess what they're facing the best out 1385 01:02:33,080 --> 01:02:35,960 Speaker 4: of possession team in La Liga. And Bill Boo, who's 1386 01:02:36,240 --> 01:02:39,560 Speaker 4: now forcing the most high turnovers, has you know, historically 1387 01:02:39,600 --> 01:02:42,480 Speaker 4: been one of the better mid blocks across Europe's top 1388 01:02:42,520 --> 01:02:46,800 Speaker 4: five leagues. So I don't know how last Palms scoring here. 1389 01:02:46,880 --> 01:02:49,360 Speaker 4: But on the reverse end of it, Bill Bowle's offense 1390 01:02:49,440 --> 01:02:52,760 Speaker 4: is starting to trend downwards. Five point five expected goals 1391 01:02:52,760 --> 01:02:55,040 Speaker 4: in their last seven matches, only three expected goal with 1392 01:02:55,080 --> 01:02:58,880 Speaker 4: three big scoring chances, so got both team to score 1393 01:02:58,960 --> 01:03:01,040 Speaker 4: no projected minus one four so like the current line 1394 01:03:01,040 --> 01:03:01,880 Speaker 4: of minus one fifteen. 1395 01:03:02,400 --> 01:03:04,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, if they lose the goalkeeper too, Palmas could be 1396 01:03:04,440 --> 01:03:09,240 Speaker 3: in some trouble. Yeah all right, uh Legan you like who. 1397 01:03:09,760 --> 01:03:14,280 Speaker 4: Lil Ah our boys even money against Ren You know, 1398 01:03:14,360 --> 01:03:17,320 Speaker 4: LIL I've mentioned this the last time since the beginning 1399 01:03:17,560 --> 01:03:21,600 Speaker 4: of November, has the best expected goal differential and league gun. 1400 01:03:22,040 --> 01:03:22,919 Speaker 2: Very very good team. 1401 01:03:22,920 --> 01:03:26,640 Speaker 4: On Franseca, he's really done a lot well with them tactically, 1402 01:03:26,720 --> 01:03:29,480 Speaker 4: whether they you know, play with their you know, whether 1403 01:03:29,480 --> 01:03:31,520 Speaker 4: it be playing in transition or building out from the 1404 01:03:31,560 --> 01:03:34,920 Speaker 4: back like they're very a well versed tackle team that 1405 01:03:34,960 --> 01:03:37,280 Speaker 4: can adapt to a lot of different scenarios and ren 1406 01:03:37,880 --> 01:03:40,840 Speaker 4: They went through this big run, big you know, winning stretch, 1407 01:03:41,440 --> 01:03:43,400 Speaker 4: but if you look into who they've played, I mean, 1408 01:03:43,440 --> 01:03:45,400 Speaker 4: they have played a lot of teams in the bottom 1409 01:03:45,440 --> 01:03:47,560 Speaker 4: half of the table. They got a nice win against Nice, 1410 01:03:47,600 --> 01:03:50,200 Speaker 4: they drew against PSG, and then over the weekend they 1411 01:03:50,280 --> 01:03:52,440 Speaker 4: just laid a sticker against Lorient at a home and 1412 01:03:52,520 --> 01:03:55,640 Speaker 4: lost two ones. So I think that LIL is generally 1413 01:03:55,800 --> 01:03:58,920 Speaker 4: pretty much weekend week out getting undervalued by the market 1414 01:03:58,960 --> 01:04:00,800 Speaker 4: because how far they are down on the table, when 1415 01:04:01,160 --> 01:04:03,800 Speaker 4: the reality is their underlying numbers are still very very good, 1416 01:04:03,920 --> 01:04:06,080 Speaker 4: especially over the second half of the season. So I 1417 01:04:06,160 --> 01:04:07,240 Speaker 4: like a littleit even money. 1418 01:04:07,120 --> 01:04:10,160 Speaker 3: All right, underdog parlay good hit for BJA on my 1419 01:04:10,240 --> 01:04:13,680 Speaker 3: worka last week, right, yep, Palace almost they had a 1420 01:04:13,760 --> 01:04:16,240 Speaker 3: lead in the second half again, but did not I 1421 01:04:16,240 --> 01:04:18,840 Speaker 3: didn't have a pick, but this week we did get 1422 01:04:18,880 --> 01:04:19,800 Speaker 3: Michael to submit one. 1423 01:04:20,240 --> 01:04:20,880 Speaker 2: Who do you think it is? 1424 01:04:20,920 --> 01:04:23,640 Speaker 4: Ye? Everybody gave two options five seconds to take a guess. 1425 01:04:23,640 --> 01:04:26,040 Speaker 3: We gave two options, two options for Everton and Burnley. 1426 01:04:26,680 --> 01:04:29,000 Speaker 3: We decided that nobody should ever bet Burnley. So we're 1427 01:04:29,040 --> 01:04:33,520 Speaker 3: going with Everton plus three twenty as Michael's leg and 1428 01:04:33,960 --> 01:04:36,960 Speaker 3: BJ I'm gonna take a team in League on. You're 1429 01:04:37,000 --> 01:04:39,400 Speaker 3: also going to take a team in League on, so 1430 01:04:39,400 --> 01:04:40,880 Speaker 3: we're going to mix up the leagues a little bit. 1431 01:04:40,920 --> 01:04:44,840 Speaker 3: I like Breast plus two seventy on the road against LOM. 1432 01:04:45,520 --> 01:04:48,200 Speaker 3: They've been the much better team all year. Both teams 1433 01:04:48,200 --> 01:04:50,760 Speaker 3: have run pretty well defensively to get to this point 1434 01:04:50,760 --> 01:04:52,680 Speaker 3: where the you know, Breass is like the second team 1435 01:04:52,720 --> 01:04:54,800 Speaker 3: in the table, but if you look at just like 1436 01:04:54,840 --> 01:04:57,280 Speaker 3: all of the underlying numbers, they all suggest that Bress 1437 01:04:57,320 --> 01:04:59,360 Speaker 3: is clearly the better team. And I get that, Like 1438 01:04:59,400 --> 01:05:02,280 Speaker 3: you're in some of last year's data to say, oh, 1439 01:05:02,320 --> 01:05:05,800 Speaker 3: Lons was like one of the clear challengers to PSG, 1440 01:05:06,080 --> 01:05:08,200 Speaker 3: but like they lost a lot of talent from that team, 1441 01:05:08,240 --> 01:05:11,360 Speaker 3: and I've never come nowhere close to replicating the success 1442 01:05:11,400 --> 01:05:14,040 Speaker 3: they had, So I'm kind of just out on them 1443 01:05:14,120 --> 01:05:17,680 Speaker 3: generally and think that they've been a fade all year 1444 01:05:17,960 --> 01:05:21,240 Speaker 3: despite their running good defensively. So give me breast plus 1445 01:05:21,640 --> 01:05:22,560 Speaker 3: to seventy. 1446 01:05:23,320 --> 01:05:26,880 Speaker 4: I'm going to go with Lorient plus two forty five 1447 01:05:27,000 --> 01:05:30,840 Speaker 4: at home against Leon. You know, Lorient has been in 1448 01:05:30,960 --> 01:05:34,640 Speaker 4: fantastic formu lately, four wins in their last five matches, 1449 01:05:34,720 --> 01:05:36,840 Speaker 4: you know, plus two point eight expect goal differentials since 1450 01:05:36,880 --> 01:05:39,800 Speaker 4: the beginning of February. And what's happened is they're getting 1451 01:05:39,840 --> 01:05:41,800 Speaker 4: a lot of the positive aggression that they've been doue for. 1452 01:05:41,880 --> 01:05:44,920 Speaker 4: They've been for whatever reason, teams are just scoring at an 1453 01:05:44,840 --> 01:05:47,760 Speaker 4: incredibly high rate against them. They've allowed forty five goals, 1454 01:05:47,800 --> 01:05:51,640 Speaker 4: have about thirty five expected. The goalkeeper doesn't have a 1455 01:05:51,720 --> 01:05:54,600 Speaker 4: very significant you know minus post shout actually plus minus, 1456 01:05:54,600 --> 01:05:56,840 Speaker 4: So it just comes down to variants and they haven't 1457 01:05:56,840 --> 01:05:59,040 Speaker 4: been getting it well. Now that's swung the other way 1458 01:05:59,080 --> 01:06:00,960 Speaker 4: and this is the time to start betting on them. 1459 01:06:01,280 --> 01:06:02,840 Speaker 4: They also dealt with a lot of injuries in the 1460 01:06:02,840 --> 01:06:04,640 Speaker 4: middle half of the of the season, and now a 1461 01:06:04,680 --> 01:06:07,080 Speaker 4: lot of those guys are getting healthy. Leon was in 1462 01:06:07,080 --> 01:06:09,680 Speaker 4: the relegation zone to begin the season, they've climbed out 1463 01:06:09,720 --> 01:06:11,880 Speaker 4: of that and they've gone on a nice winning run 1464 01:06:11,960 --> 01:06:12,880 Speaker 4: under a new manager. 1465 01:06:14,120 --> 01:06:14,680 Speaker 2: Under the new. 1466 01:06:14,600 --> 01:06:17,360 Speaker 4: Manager twelve matches, they've won seven of them, but they 1467 01:06:17,440 --> 01:06:19,680 Speaker 4: also lost the other five. And during that run they 1468 01:06:19,680 --> 01:06:22,360 Speaker 4: have about a plus two expect a goal differential. But 1469 01:06:23,200 --> 01:06:26,240 Speaker 4: the problem that has existed for them basically all season 1470 01:06:26,280 --> 01:06:29,360 Speaker 4: long is they are terrible defensively. Under the new manager, 1471 01:06:29,400 --> 01:06:31,800 Speaker 4: they're still allowing close to one point six expected goals 1472 01:06:31,800 --> 01:06:34,840 Speaker 4: for ninety minutes. So now we get a situation with 1473 01:06:34,920 --> 01:06:39,360 Speaker 4: a team that's red hot coming in at home against 1474 01:06:39,440 --> 01:06:41,800 Speaker 4: a leone defense that has quite frankly, still been terrible. 1475 01:06:41,840 --> 01:06:43,480 Speaker 4: And the previous meeting between these two was a really 1476 01:06:43,560 --> 01:06:46,280 Speaker 4: chaotic three to three draw, but Leon only created point 1477 01:06:46,360 --> 01:06:49,080 Speaker 4: seven at non penalty expected goals only in ten touches 1478 01:06:49,080 --> 01:06:52,320 Speaker 4: in Lorient's penalty area. So I generally think that Leon 1479 01:06:52,480 --> 01:06:55,200 Speaker 4: is overvalued here, and they haven't been good away from 1480 01:06:55,200 --> 01:06:57,600 Speaker 4: home as well. So Lorient plus two to forty. 1481 01:06:57,400 --> 01:07:00,560 Speaker 3: Five comes out to forty eight to oneunning out of time, 1482 01:07:00,600 --> 01:07:03,720 Speaker 3: DJA running out of touch to win one of these 1483 01:07:03,720 --> 01:07:06,480 Speaker 3: this year? All right? At best bets, I'll start Brighton 1484 01:07:06,680 --> 01:07:10,720 Speaker 3: and Forrest under three. We talked about this at depth. 1485 01:07:10,760 --> 01:07:12,680 Speaker 3: But the biggest thing here is Brighton is dealing with 1486 01:07:13,240 --> 01:07:16,160 Speaker 3: injuries and rotation. They have the Europa League on Thursday, 1487 01:07:16,440 --> 01:07:18,280 Speaker 3: the week before and after, so they're kind of in 1488 01:07:18,280 --> 01:07:20,520 Speaker 3: a weird sandwich spot where they may not play all 1489 01:07:20,560 --> 01:07:23,240 Speaker 3: their best attackers because they're more worried about Europa League advancement. 1490 01:07:23,800 --> 01:07:25,840 Speaker 3: That will depend on how Thursday goes, of course, but 1491 01:07:26,400 --> 01:07:29,280 Speaker 3: also tactically, Forest is going to sit very deep, sit 1492 01:07:29,400 --> 01:07:31,720 Speaker 3: off them, not press them, and I think what that 1493 01:07:31,760 --> 01:07:33,800 Speaker 3: creates for Brighton is a world where they're not going 1494 01:07:33,880 --> 01:07:36,040 Speaker 3: to have their build up disrupted like Lowton did or 1495 01:07:36,080 --> 01:07:40,040 Speaker 3: like Arsenal did effectively and really cause these crazy transition moments. 1496 01:07:40,200 --> 01:07:42,720 Speaker 3: There's gonna be a lot of long, lengthy possessions that 1497 01:07:42,840 --> 01:07:45,960 Speaker 3: lead to output. That's been really the story of Brighton 1498 01:07:46,040 --> 01:07:48,560 Speaker 3: season is that their attack has fallen off, not their defense. 1499 01:07:48,600 --> 01:07:51,840 Speaker 3: Their defense is still top six in XG allowed. So 1500 01:07:52,240 --> 01:07:55,200 Speaker 3: I think that this total is a touch high at three. 1501 01:07:55,480 --> 01:07:58,560 Speaker 3: I know Forrest has goalkeeper problems glore, and that's been 1502 01:07:58,600 --> 01:08:01,919 Speaker 3: their biggest issue all year, but this totals to touch high. 1503 01:08:02,200 --> 01:08:05,480 Speaker 4: Everton plus a half at even money at Old Trafford 1504 01:08:05,640 --> 01:08:09,880 Speaker 4: against Manchester United this match sets up really, really well 1505 01:08:09,920 --> 01:08:12,440 Speaker 4: for Everton. So what's been happening with Manchester United this 1506 01:08:12,520 --> 01:08:14,760 Speaker 4: season is that Eric ten Hawk has basically conceded that 1507 01:08:14,840 --> 01:08:17,640 Speaker 4: his team can no longer control matches, so they have 1508 01:08:17,720 --> 01:08:19,519 Speaker 4: to play very transitionally. 1509 01:08:18,920 --> 01:08:19,760 Speaker 2: In very end to end. 1510 01:08:20,280 --> 01:08:22,599 Speaker 4: It's not a bad thing to be a transition team, 1511 01:08:22,640 --> 01:08:24,559 Speaker 4: but it's bad when you want to play transitionally when 1512 01:08:24,560 --> 01:08:27,680 Speaker 4: your transition defense is very, very bad. United's trying to 1513 01:08:27,720 --> 01:08:29,680 Speaker 4: press from the front, They're not really to be able 1514 01:08:29,680 --> 01:08:31,240 Speaker 4: to do that because Everyton's just going to send long 1515 01:08:31,280 --> 01:08:33,360 Speaker 4: balls up there. They're gonna have advantages winning headers on 1516 01:08:33,400 --> 01:08:36,200 Speaker 4: those second balls. So one of two things they are 1517 01:08:36,200 --> 01:08:38,439 Speaker 4: going to happen. Either Everton or are going to sit 1518 01:08:38,520 --> 01:08:40,320 Speaker 4: in their mid block, which they are a leade at 1519 01:08:40,320 --> 01:08:42,679 Speaker 4: this season. They're top five and expected goal is allowed, 1520 01:08:42,720 --> 01:08:46,799 Speaker 4: top five and big scoring chances allowed and darre United 1521 01:08:46,800 --> 01:08:49,960 Speaker 4: to break them down when United doesn't have Rasmus Hoyland. 1522 01:08:50,439 --> 01:08:52,240 Speaker 4: Or they're going to get in a back and forth 1523 01:08:52,280 --> 01:08:54,719 Speaker 4: transition game with United where they are a better transition 1524 01:08:54,800 --> 01:08:58,400 Speaker 4: defense and a better transition offense. Everton also has a 1525 01:08:58,680 --> 01:09:01,920 Speaker 4: real distinct advantage corners. They are the number one team 1526 01:09:01,960 --> 01:09:04,280 Speaker 4: off of corners in the Premier League this season created 1527 01:09:04,360 --> 01:09:07,160 Speaker 4: well over twelve expected goals point one six x G 1528 01:09:07,280 --> 01:09:11,360 Speaker 4: per corner, while United has conceded the most set piece 1529 01:09:11,439 --> 01:09:13,599 Speaker 4: opportunities in the Premier League, which is kind of crazy 1530 01:09:13,640 --> 01:09:15,400 Speaker 4: for a team sitting in the top half of the table, 1531 01:09:15,439 --> 01:09:18,360 Speaker 4: which just tells you how undisciplined they are defensively in 1532 01:09:18,439 --> 01:09:20,840 Speaker 4: terms of fouling teams in their own final thirds. So 1533 01:09:21,200 --> 01:09:23,840 Speaker 4: Everton has a ton of advantages here. They honestly should 1534 01:09:23,880 --> 01:09:26,000 Speaker 4: be a road favorite because of how much better they've 1535 01:09:26,000 --> 01:09:29,160 Speaker 4: been in terms of their underlying numbers. So it's the 1536 01:09:29,200 --> 01:09:31,479 Speaker 4: game of the year. I love Everton plus a half 1537 01:09:31,520 --> 01:09:32,200 Speaker 4: at even money. 1538 01:09:32,560 --> 01:09:34,960 Speaker 3: Only this podcast would call Everton United the game of 1539 01:09:35,000 --> 01:09:37,240 Speaker 3: the year. At the same weekend of Liverpool man City, 1540 01:09:37,280 --> 01:09:41,000 Speaker 3: which is the two current title betting favorites to win 1541 01:09:41,320 --> 01:09:43,759 Speaker 3: the Premier League, that will be the big one Sunday. 1542 01:09:43,800 --> 01:09:46,160 Speaker 3: We will be back on Monday. I'm sure we will 1543 01:09:46,200 --> 01:09:48,840 Speaker 3: work in some discussion about the Premier League title race 1544 01:09:48,880 --> 01:09:51,160 Speaker 3: into that episode, but that's also going to be a 1545 01:09:51,200 --> 01:09:53,479 Speaker 3: Champions League episode because we've got the second round of 1546 01:09:53,520 --> 01:09:55,760 Speaker 3: the second legs next week. Arsenal looks to turn our 1547 01:09:55,760 --> 01:09:57,960 Speaker 3: match against Porto intern is going to try to hold 1548 01:09:57,960 --> 01:10:01,120 Speaker 3: off at Letti Big Champions League week next week, and 1549 01:10:01,160 --> 01:10:03,400 Speaker 3: then we're heading into the final weekend before the break, 1550 01:10:03,560 --> 01:10:07,960 Speaker 3: so we're gonna get Champions League of Break euroqualifiers. We're 1551 01:10:07,960 --> 01:10:09,639 Speaker 3: coming down the pike here toward the end of the season. 1552 01:10:09,720 --> 01:10:13,719 Speaker 3: Very exciting. Hopefully leave Off has recovered from his Jurgen 1553 01:10:13,800 --> 01:10:16,719 Speaker 3: Klop flu to be back with us for the Monday episode. 1554 01:10:16,880 --> 01:10:19,000 Speaker 3: Thanks to Bjay for joining me. This has been wonder 1555 01:10:19,040 --> 01:10:29,760 Speaker 3: goal and see you guys Monday. Action Network reminds you 1556 01:10:30,160 --> 01:10:33,760 Speaker 3: please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about 1557 01:10:33,840 --> 01:10:36,720 Speaker 3: has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four to 1558 01:10:36,800 --> 01:10:38,759 Speaker 3: seven at one eight hundred Gambler