Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovick. We're here every day bringing
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Speaker 1: pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us on
Speaker 1: YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. Well. President Biden says donated
Speaker 1: viser shots will start to ship globally. In August, he
Speaker 1: announced that the US will begin shipping a half billion
Speaker 1: donated doses of viser coronavirus vaccines to countries in quote
Speaker 1: dire need. In August that making good on a promise
Speaker 1: to lead the global campaign against the pandemic. Joining US
Speaker 1: now on this and more is Dr Amish Adalga, Senior
Speaker 1: scholar and infectious disease physician at the Center for Health
Speaker 1: Security at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
Speaker 1: He joins us on the phone from Pittsburgh. Dr Adulge,
Speaker 1: it is great to have you back on the show.
Speaker 1: I want to start with this half a billion donated
Speaker 1: doses of Visor vaccine. It sounds like a lot, and
Speaker 1: to be sure, it is a massive number. But given
Speaker 1: that the the globe needs billions to get past this pandemic,
Speaker 1: isn't it still just somewhat I don't want to say,
Speaker 1: a drop in the bucket, but not quite enough. Well,
Speaker 1: it's it's a step in the right direction, and there
Speaker 1: are going to be more donations, more purchases of vaccines
Speaker 1: by the developing world, the Kovacs program, other organizations getting
Speaker 1: vaccines into people. But the more the more vaccines, even
Speaker 1: if it's not enough, the more that are getting into
Speaker 1: people's arms, the better the global trajectory of the pandemic looks,
Speaker 1: especially if you're trying to vaccinate healthcare workers, high risk individuals.
Speaker 1: I think this is a significant a significant donation, and
Speaker 1: it is something that would be very welcome in those countries.
Speaker 1: Availability of vaccine is certainly one thing, but the administration
Speaker 1: of vaccine, especially of vaccine, that has to be stored
Speaker 1: in a way that the Visor m R and a
Speaker 1: vaccine has to be stored is a completely different thing.
Speaker 1: What do these countries need to be doing ahead of
Speaker 1: time to make sure that they can actually have a
Speaker 1: campaign that effectively can administer this vaccine. The first thing
Speaker 1: they have to do is make sure that they can
Speaker 1: ensure the coal chain. The visor vaccine has, as you said,
Speaker 1: really owner restorage requirements. They have to make sure that
Speaker 1: they can actually handle that vaccine. Then it's about logistically
Speaker 1: figuring out where you're going to vaccinate people. Is this
Speaker 1: going to be a vaccine centers? Are they're going to
Speaker 1: be Is it going to be a healthcare centers? There
Speaker 1: are there going to be other places where this vaccine
Speaker 1: is going to be available. You also have to think
Speaker 1: do you have enough syringes, do you have enough needles,
Speaker 1: do you have the alcohol swabs? Do you have enough
Speaker 1: personnel to actually administer the shots. All of that planning
Speaker 1: has to be put into place when you're planning something
Speaker 1: like this, and that's going to be really important for
Speaker 1: those countries to to pre to kind of pre position
Speaker 1: and be ready to go when they get the vaccine. Now,
Speaker 1: i'm i'm. We've talked to you a lot in the
Speaker 1: past here on Bloomberg Radio and on quick Take about
Speaker 1: variants of concern that have upped around the world, and
Speaker 1: one narrative that has emerged over the last few months
Speaker 1: as the US has been vaccinated increasingly but other countries
Speaker 1: have not, is the idea that we're not on the
Speaker 1: other side of this pandemic until the entire world is.
Speaker 1: And it's not just an economic story, but it's also
Speaker 1: a story of public health, and the concern worst case
Speaker 1: scenario was that some sort of variant develops and it
Speaker 1: goes kind of unchecked in a country that is not
Speaker 1: completely vaccinated or does not have a high level of vaccine,
Speaker 1: and that variant then can get past the vaccines that
Speaker 1: have been approved for emergency use authorization in certain countries.
Speaker 1: And I wonder if there's any evidence at this point
Speaker 1: here we are June tenth, that that could still happen,
Speaker 1: or that that has happened. There's no evidence in any
Speaker 1: of what we would call variants of high consequence, ones
Speaker 1: that are able to cause serious disease and fully vaccinated
Speaker 1: people have emerged. And it's it's a very hard thing
Speaker 1: for a virus to do, because it's not just that
Speaker 1: they have to evade the antibodies generated by the vaccine.
Speaker 1: It's also the T cell immunity, and it seems that
Speaker 1: T sell immunity, which is a whole different arm of
Speaker 1: your immune system, is very robust and when faced with
Speaker 1: the variant, even if it can get around the antibodies,
Speaker 1: the T cells prevent the infection from progressing to serious
Speaker 1: illness or needing hospitalization. And I think that's almost like
Speaker 1: a biological fact that it's going to be a very
Speaker 1: hard constraint for that virus to get around. Yes, it's
Speaker 1: biologically plausible, But do I think it's going to happen. No.
Speaker 1: But I think the other point is is that even
Speaker 1: from an individual perspective, we have a significant proportion of
Speaker 1: the US population that is not vaccinated, and those variants
Speaker 1: are going to be able to uh to infect them.
Speaker 1: Those variants are going to be able to cause serious disease.
Speaker 1: Even if hospitals aren't in crisis, there's still an individual
Speaker 1: threat to health from COVID nineteen. So that's why we
Speaker 1: want to get vaccine vaccine rates as high as possible,
Speaker 1: even when the public health emergency aspect of this pandemic
Speaker 1: is over in his country. But President Biden has the goal,
Speaker 1: and he laid out this goal weeks ago to have
Speaker 1: of American adults have received one shot since the fourth
Speaker 1: of a live we're just over right now. Do you
Speaker 1: think we're gonna make it? It's going to be very challenging.
Speaker 1: It's very difficult to now find people who want to
Speaker 1: be vaccinated. We've kind of gone through everybody that wants
Speaker 1: to be vaccinated. We've made it very convenient. You can
Speaker 1: get vaccinated in the subway in New York City. You
Speaker 1: can get vaccinated at strip bars in Las Vegas. You
Speaker 1: can get vaccinated on the beach. You get free beer,
Speaker 1: free donuts, you get lottery tickets so you get bonds.
Speaker 1: In West Virginia, a lot of incentives are there. So
Speaker 1: it's becoming hard. I don't know that we're going to
Speaker 1: actually reach that goal, but to me, I think it's
Speaker 1: important to strive for it and to continue even if
Speaker 1: we don't meet that goal fourth of July, to still
Speaker 1: continue to push forward with vaccines because the more this
Speaker 1: population and in our country is vaccinated, the more resilient
Speaker 1: we're going to be, the less disruptive COVID nineteen is
Speaker 1: going to be, and the quicker we can kind of
Speaker 1: put all of this behind us. In addition to those prizes,
Speaker 1: in some places, you also do get protection from something
Speaker 1: that a lot of people really don't want. Uh. I wonder,
Speaker 1: Dr Adulter, just in the last minute we have and
Speaker 1: then you're gonna come back with us after we do
Speaker 1: some news. What from a public health perspective messaging perspective,
Speaker 1: seems to be working to get those people who have
Speaker 1: held out in the last thirty seconds. The best The
Speaker 1: best message is the fact that these vaccines improve your
Speaker 1: personal Like just as you said that this protects you
Speaker 1: from a serious infectious disease. It makes you no longer
Speaker 1: a threat to others, and it makes the virus no
Speaker 1: longer a threat to you, and it allows you to
Speaker 1: get your your life back. And I think that's the
Speaker 1: best way to message this. And it took some time
Speaker 1: for the CDC to actually get on board with that message,
Speaker 1: but that's the true one and that's the correct Yeah.
Speaker 1: I feel like I'm a superhero. I've said this before,
Speaker 1: but you know, I feel totally comfortable doing things that
Speaker 1: for the last fourteen months I was not comfortable doing.
Speaker 1: Let's get right back to dr Amish Adulga, Senior scholar
Speaker 1: an infectious disease physician at the Center for Health Security,
Speaker 1: I think JOHNS Hopkins, Bloomberg School of Public Health. He
Speaker 1: joins us on the phone from Pittsburgh. We just heard
Speaker 1: from your colleague, Dr Jennifer Nuso about how important it
Speaker 1: is to get those vaccines in arms as soon as possible,
Speaker 1: Dr Adlga. And one reason that we like to talk
Speaker 1: to you each and every week and as much as possible,
Speaker 1: really is that you're out there each week on the
Speaker 1: front lines still and you have been throughout the pandemic
Speaker 1: visiting patients, and we've been able to get updates from
Speaker 1: you about what it's been like throughout the pandemic. And
Speaker 1: I wonder now what you're seeing with the coronavirus, but
Speaker 1: also with other types of viruses that could be flaring
Speaker 1: up right now. So with coronavirus right now, it's very
Speaker 1: low and I work clinically in the Pittsburgh area and
Speaker 1: the hospitals are in good shape, and the people that
Speaker 1: we are seeing come in with coronavirus are those who
Speaker 1: are unvaccinated. It's largely become a disease of the unvaccinated
Speaker 1: now and it's not something where we see I see
Speaker 1: you is kind of busting at the seams or very
Speaker 1: many patients at all. UH. So it's a really good
Speaker 1: situation we're in with COVID, But what we are starting
Speaker 1: to see our other respiratory viruses kicked back up. Other
Speaker 1: coronavirus is not COVID nineteen, but others r s V.
Speaker 1: The CDC just released a health alert about rs V
Speaker 1: increasing in the South. That's a childhood viral illness. So
Speaker 1: we are seeing some normalcy returning to our to the
Speaker 1: kind of viral ecology. Whereas people stop social distancing, as
Speaker 1: people put away their masks for good, for good reasons,
Speaker 1: because they're fully vaccinated, you're going to start seeing some
Speaker 1: of our other old, you know, well known pathogens starting
Speaker 1: to come back, and we have to be prepared for
Speaker 1: those as well. Remind me, rs V is that something
Speaker 1: that kids can get vaccinated against. No. Rs V is
Speaker 1: not something kids can get vaccinated against. This is something
Speaker 1: that puts a lot of babies in the hospital, lots
Speaker 1: of young kids. It's often for older people that might
Speaker 1: be more of a bronchitis type of UH symptoms, but
Speaker 1: it's something that kind of plagues children every year. But
Speaker 1: we're starting to see that kick back up, and and
Speaker 1: I suspect you're going to start seeing cold people have
Speaker 1: been going a year without having any colds. Those are
Speaker 1: going to start coming back. And I've increasingly seen people
Speaker 1: who have viruses who have symptoms that you know, six
Speaker 1: months ago I thought would definitely be COVID, but they're
Speaker 1: testing negative for COVID because they're likely other viruses now
Speaker 1: that are just uh way chomping at the bit basically
Speaker 1: to get back to the work that they do every year. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's it's it's interesting. It's not it's not good news
Speaker 1: by any means, but it is one measure of return
Speaker 1: to normalcy, right. Yeah. I don't think it's it's not
Speaker 1: good news, obviously, we don't. These are disruptive things. People
Speaker 1: get hospitalized with them, but it's something that you know,
Speaker 1: in the past, we it was very hard to even
Speaker 1: see any other viruses, which because COVID was so dominant
Speaker 1: and dominating the whole viral landscape that I think I
Speaker 1: took care of one flu influenza patient during this whole
Speaker 1: uh this pandemic. That's very very rare. So this tells
Speaker 1: you that you know, COVID is receiving that. This is
Speaker 1: a real signal that we're seeing with cases dropping and
Speaker 1: people getting back to life. And part of getting back
Speaker 1: to life is dealing with the respiratory viruses that we
Speaker 1: deal with every year, and eventually COVID is going to
Speaker 1: be one of those respiratory viruses that we deal with
Speaker 1: every year. Yeah, that's that's what we do. Keep hearing
Speaker 1: from experts like yourself, Dr Dlja. You you you mentioned
Speaker 1: what kids are are you what kids are being infected with?
Speaker 1: What you're seeing when you do your rounds. I'm I'm
Speaker 1: wondering back to coronavirus about how we should be thinking
Speaker 1: about vaccinating kids, especially those under twelve as we as
Speaker 1: we do know, there are trials happening in the United
Speaker 1: States to test the efvocacy and safe d of coronavirus
Speaker 1: vaccines and kids. Do you expect that that those will
Speaker 1: get approved for emergency use authorization? I do expect that
Speaker 1: they will get approved, likely at a lower dose. What's
Speaker 1: going on right now is that the clinical clinical trials,
Speaker 1: there will be data coming from there on both safety
Speaker 1: and efficacy, and I suspect that the FDA and the
Speaker 1: CDC will will recommend that for children. I think, you know,
Speaker 1: it's important to remember that you have to do trials
Speaker 1: in different age groups because as you get to those
Speaker 1: younger age groups, the risk of severe disease from COVID
Speaker 1: nineteen becomes very very small, and the risk of transmission
Speaker 1: of COVID nineteen from small children is also low. So
Speaker 1: there is the benefits of the vaccine are more blunted
Speaker 1: in a six year old than they are in a
Speaker 1: sixty year old. So that's why we have to do
Speaker 1: special trials. We have to have special discussions about the
Speaker 1: dosing and all of that. And I think it's going
Speaker 1: to progress, and I think we'll get there eventually. Uh,
Speaker 1: the impact is going to be more so on getting
Speaker 1: children back into activities in a safer manner because mostly
Speaker 1: because of the adults being kind of fearful of COVID nineteen,
Speaker 1: rather than actually like a huge epidemiological impact or going
Speaker 1: to see when we vaccinate below the age of twelve.
Speaker 1: When do you expect a date that we'll start to
Speaker 1: see this? Just in the last ten seconds, I've heard
Speaker 1: rumors that this likely will be before Thanksgiving. When when
Speaker 1: we'll see that? Dr Amischadales, Senior scholar, an infectious disease
Speaker 1: physician at the Center for Health Security the Johns Hopkins
Speaker 1: Bloomberg School of Public Health. He joins us on the
Speaker 1: phone from Pittsburgh, the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public
Speaker 1: Health that is supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder of
Speaker 1: Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. This is Bloomberg Business Week
Speaker 1: with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. Well. A story in the new issue of
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Week magazine required national correspondent Josh Green to
Speaker 1: head south to Florida, where he spoke to many of
Speaker 1: those who have been lured south by sunshine, golf and money.
Speaker 1: A lot of them the former president's allies and hanger on,
Speaker 1: and they've formed an alternate universe that revolves around none
Speaker 1: other than Mara Lago. Joining me now is Josh Green,
Speaker 1: National correspondent at Bloomberg Business Week. He joins us on
Speaker 1: the phone from Washington, d C. All of Joel Webber,
Speaker 1: editor of Bloomberg Business Week. He's here with me in
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. Joel. There was the question
Speaker 1: of what the post Trump president post presidency Trump would
Speaker 1: look like. And it turns out that he's still very
Speaker 1: much active in a kingmaker. I kind of don't think
Speaker 1: anybody saw what's what what what this now looks like coming? Um,
Speaker 1: And that's why when Josh mentioned that he wanted to
Speaker 1: do this story, uh, we were like, yes, yes, get
Speaker 1: on a plane. And he goes, I'm not vaccinated. I
Speaker 1: can't do it yet. And this was obviously months ago,
Speaker 1: and we were like, get vaccinated as quickly as you can.
Speaker 1: He was like, I'm trying. And when he finally got vaccinated,
Speaker 1: it all worked out and we got him down there. Um, Josh,
Speaker 1: tell us about what you found in South Florida. Yeah, well,
Speaker 1: I mean basically I went down to kind of solve
Speaker 1: a mystery that a lot of people have wondered about,
Speaker 1: which was, you know, after after January six, a lot
Speaker 1: of people wondered, will Trump maintain his grip on the
Speaker 1: party or will he kind of dwindle into insignificance. A
Speaker 1: lot of Republicans I talked to you back then, I
Speaker 1: thought he was just going to kind of go away
Speaker 1: and be forgotten about. But he hasn't been. And so
Speaker 1: I went down to Florida. To kind of investigator his world.
Speaker 1: What I found was, um, you know, Trump isn't like
Speaker 1: any typical ex president. He he really lives down in
Speaker 1: Mori Lago, kind of like I describe him as a
Speaker 1: foreign monarch cast into exile, because not only is Trump
Speaker 1: down in more Lago, but a big contingent of the
Speaker 1: Republican Party, including his own family and kind of ancillary
Speaker 1: Fox News figures, have moved down there with him. So
Speaker 1: it's sort of like, you know, an administration out of
Speaker 1: tower that has nonetheless managed to tighten its grip on
Speaker 1: the Republican Party at the time, and many people thought
Speaker 1: after the riots and the deadly violence on the Capitol
Speaker 1: that the party might move on from Trump. Yeah, well,
Speaker 1: I think there's probably no better example of the party
Speaker 1: not moving on from Trump than the physical moving of
Speaker 1: people from parts of Florida to other parts of Florida.
Speaker 1: You spoke to Eddie Vale, a Democratic strategist, who said,
Speaker 1: think about how bizarre that is, referring to Ivanka Trump,
Speaker 1: Sean Hannity, Neil Cavudo, Kevin Carthy, all people who have
Speaker 1: made their way down to this part of Florida. He said,
Speaker 1: it's like if Rachel Maddow and the Pod Save America
Speaker 1: guys all bought condos in Chicago because they wanted to
Speaker 1: be close to Barack Obama. How does this represent the
Speaker 1: future of the of the Republican Party. I mean, I
Speaker 1: think what it shows symbolically is that Trump is still
Speaker 1: the center of gravity, and then he isn't going to
Speaker 1: see the spotlight. I mean. One of the remarkable things
Speaker 1: about Trump's post presidency that I think we don't really
Speaker 1: step back and think about is that if you look
Speaker 1: at the last to one term presidents, you know, Jimmy Carter,
Speaker 1: George H. W. Bush, they were immediately branded as losers
Speaker 1: by their own party, which which was eager to move
Speaker 1: on from them and did so. And yet Trump, even
Speaker 1: though lost reelection by seven million votes, has managed to
Speaker 1: maintain a grip not just on the party, I mean,
Speaker 1: not just on kind of the institutional party, um, but
Speaker 1: on right wing media, on the hearts and minds of activists. UM.
Speaker 1: You know, all you have to do is look at
Speaker 1: House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, who criticized Trump in the
Speaker 1: wake of the insurrection, going back uh two weeks later
Speaker 1: tomorrow Lago to visit and try to raise money and
Speaker 1: kind of bend the knee to Trump to see that.
Speaker 1: You know, Republican politicians they're not going to stand up
Speaker 1: for him to him, and not only that, if you
Speaker 1: look at the direction of Republican policy, you know across
Speaker 1: the country and states across the country, there are new
Speaker 1: voter restriction laws in the works. All of this is
Speaker 1: a reflection of Trump's influence continuing influence on the party. Josh,
Speaker 1: you spoke to, uh, almost everybody I I could think
Speaker 1: of that you could that you could have quoted in
Speaker 1: the story you did. And I'm just wondering, you know,
Speaker 1: everybody from from Sean Spicer who's down there, like on
Speaker 1: down who is your most favorite person to speak to?
Speaker 1: Who gave you your most favorite insight? You know, I
Speaker 1: I think that the guy I like most and he
Speaker 1: is a key character with a memorable scene in the
Speaker 1: piece as a former White House spokesman named Hogan Gidley
Speaker 1: who was hanging out shirtless pool side at one of
Speaker 1: the hot Trump hotels down there. Uh. You know, Hogan
Speaker 1: had done a swing through there to raise money for
Speaker 1: a pro Trump group that he started. But he really
Speaker 1: explained the kind of sociology and taxonomy of the extended
Speaker 1: Trump universe. And I came away understanding that it isn't
Speaker 1: just that politicians are afraid of Trump. It's that the
Speaker 1: entire Republican consulting infrastructure, at least a large part of it,
Speaker 1: remains dependent on Trump for their livelihood. They can't go
Speaker 1: and get jobs at Uber and Amazon like Obama administration
Speaker 1: officials did. They're they're sort of considered radioactive, I think,
Speaker 1: especially after January six, and so they've gone out and
Speaker 1: started conservative groups to push things like voter restrictions. Um,
Speaker 1: they are very Trumpian and in doing so it kind
Speaker 1: of created a very real power structure that allows Trump
Speaker 1: to maintain his hold over the party. Uh and as I,
Speaker 1: as I say in the piece, position himself as the
Speaker 1: front runner in that's what he designs to do. The
Speaker 1: the line that Gidley gave gave you while uh while
Speaker 1: drinking what beverage? What beverage was not rush virgin virgin
Speaker 1: Barry spritzer. It sounds like soda. He wanted to emphasize
Speaker 1: it was virgin, not alcoholic, because it was like a
Speaker 1: ten in the morning. Um, So, so let the record
Speaker 1: show that that Gidley wasn't drinking alcohol. Um, but it's
Speaker 1: a very delicious sixteen dollar version, very spriss. But the
Speaker 1: line I just the or the quote that he gave
Speaker 1: you was so memorable to me. But you never take
Speaker 1: your line out of the water while the fish are
Speaker 1: still biting. And I just like, I got it, I
Speaker 1: got it when you when you did that so so
Speaker 1: and it really sums it up. That's that's that's what
Speaker 1: all the that's what all these Republicans consultants are doing.
Speaker 1: They understand that their livelihood still flows from Trump, and
Speaker 1: so they're they're response accordingly, what is this portend for two?
Speaker 1: And then well for too? It's clear. You know, when
Speaker 1: I was down there, I spoke to everybody, from former
Speaker 1: staffers to big billionaire Trump donors to consultants, and everyone
Speaker 1: for their own parochial reason is really depending on Trump
Speaker 1: to bring out the Republican vote in twenty two. They
Speaker 1: all want to, They all want Republicans to win back
Speaker 1: the House of Representatives, which I think is quite likely,
Speaker 1: but they understand, um, they need Trump to pull out
Speaker 1: as voters. So they have a kind of an instrumental
Speaker 1: youth for Trump that I think helps keep them front
Speaker 1: and center. The interesting dilemma for them is most of
Speaker 1: these people I think did not do not want Trump
Speaker 1: to run in four because they don't think he can win,
Speaker 1: and they're sort of stuck because nobody really has a
Speaker 1: convincing story for how they can use him next year. Uh,
Speaker 1: and then get rid of them before four. Well. It
Speaker 1: is a fantastic feature. That is any new issue of
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Week magazine. It's also Today's Bloomberg Big Take story.
Speaker 1: You can read more at Bloomberg dot Com slash of
Speaker 1: business Week. That's Josh Green, national correspondent at Bloomberg Business
Speaker 1: we and Joel Webber, Editor of Bloomberg Business Week, with
Speaker 1: me in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. This is Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim
Speaker 1: Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well, in the fomo economy, everyone
Speaker 1: is making money, but you, whether you're into memestocks, crypto
Speaker 1: or real estate, buying seems driven by as much by
Speaker 1: anxiety by hope. Even professional investors who know better can't
Speaker 1: resist getting in on the action. It's the cover story
Speaker 1: for the international cover of the new issue of Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Business Week magazine. And you can read it at Bloomberg
Speaker 1: dot com. Slash of Business Week. Joining me now from
Speaker 1: Paris is Leonel Laurent, columnist at Bloomberg Opinion. Leonol, it's
Speaker 1: so great to have you back with us. What is
Speaker 1: the fomo economy? So essentially, obviously the ingredient is the
Speaker 1: third missing out. Yes, psychological belief that we are missing
Speaker 1: out on something. Everyone's getting work are past from us.
Speaker 1: But it's becoming to kill it because it is known
Speaker 1: a little bit just for sure to specific markets by cryptocurrencies.
Speaker 1: I mean, there are investors who are flipping homes. If
Speaker 1: you speak to bankers and executives, they're able to if
Speaker 1: they have a company, they're able to list it at
Speaker 1: a huge valuation with my revenue, and that is rippling
Speaker 1: out as their advisors, who are supposed to be the
Speaker 1: experts who have studied hard and worked hard to tell
Speaker 1: people how to run businesses and are completely at a
Speaker 1: loss as to explain what works, what is the business
Speaker 1: model that works, and how do you make money? So
Speaker 1: the result is that everyone is down to the same
Speaker 1: tune and it is it's all about the stories that
Speaker 1: we tell each other. I'm getting rich, How are you
Speaker 1: getting rich. Let's all trade. So it's a kind of
Speaker 1: weird contagion that's happening with a lot of different ingredients,
Speaker 1: and it's sweeping New world economy. Yeah, those ingredients include cryptocurrency,
Speaker 1: it's the way you open your piece. It also includes
Speaker 1: meme stock such as AMC, game Stop, Wendy's GEO group.
Speaker 1: The list goes on depending on the day, and then
Speaker 1: also even housing. I mean, reading through this this story,
Speaker 1: this column, I always thinking to myself, this sounds exactly
Speaker 1: like conversations that I've been having with my friends over
Speaker 1: the last few months when they say, Hey, should I
Speaker 1: buy bitcoin? Should I get in on meme stocks? And
Speaker 1: what is going on with the housing market. Of course
Speaker 1: I can't offer them any advice, and I have no
Speaker 1: idea what's going to happen. But what do you find
Speaker 1: about what's going to happen if there are signs of
Speaker 1: any sort of asset bubbles here that have been similar
Speaker 1: asset bubbles in times past. So there's there's a couple
Speaker 1: of things happening on the housing I think it really
Speaker 1: is that kind of anxiety that says, um, I am
Speaker 1: always going to miss out on housing every time there
Speaker 1: is a supposed opportunity. The prices keep going up and
Speaker 1: if I don't buy now, I will be priced out.
Speaker 1: There is anxiety, there is greed as well. In New
Speaker 1: Zealand of all countries, there are people who already owned
Speaker 1: homes world or two who are now buying three, four
Speaker 1: or five. There is just this needs to keep accumulating
Speaker 1: because it is seen as a bet that can only
Speaker 1: work out in the long run. Remember that young people
Speaker 1: as well, coming into the job market they see only
Speaker 1: a long future or ahead of them, are not convinced
Speaker 1: at all. But if they study and work hard, they
Speaker 1: will get a normal any normal retirement. So they are
Speaker 1: they are swept along too. And housing is the most
Speaker 1: basic need, a roof over your head. It's what we
Speaker 1: all drew off in retirement. So all of these things
Speaker 1: have been compressed in a world of low rates and
Speaker 1: excess savings and posts reopening euphoria. It is it is
Speaker 1: affecting everything, And how is it is deactly part of it?
Speaker 1: How does it end? Very good questions. So there's a
Speaker 1: couple of possibilities round I mean use the word bubble.
Speaker 1: I see what's happening now as more of a more
Speaker 1: of a cycle. So We've seen gold rushes in the past,
Speaker 1: We've seen dot com boobs um. These things can have
Speaker 1: a long time lad before they change. Some people think
Speaker 1: there is a genuine turn in the for example, the
Speaker 1: inflation cycle. If yields start to rise, then all these
Speaker 1: moonshot investments don't start to look so great in the
Speaker 1: same uniform way. Otherwise, I'm afraid it really has to
Speaker 1: be a question of trying to find that middle ground
Speaker 1: between the really extreme stories of getting rich, and maybe
Speaker 1: the story would seem boring today, Like if I said
Speaker 1: to you just put a little money aside every month
Speaker 1: and put it in a mutual fund, you may have
Speaker 1: to reassess think yourself about your own life and think, well,
Speaker 1: if I build my entire life around fomo, it's just
Speaker 1: how sustainable about it is. So I would say it's
Speaker 1: a mix of natural cycles, the you know, the growth
Speaker 1: of the economy and how it performs sort of fundamental
Speaker 1: but also human psychology. Just just how contagious are those
Speaker 1: stories going to be? Yeah, And as you point out,
Speaker 1: which I love in your piece, you say, incidentally, actual
Speaker 1: lottery tickets have also grown in popularity during this time.
Speaker 1: I wonder about wealth management because it's something that you
Speaker 1: touch on the experts, the advisors, the people who used
Speaker 1: to march into two boardrooms and know exactly how a
Speaker 1: company should spend their money. They don't necessarily have all
Speaker 1: the answers like they used to. No, and and this
Speaker 1: is why it is an economic phenomenon because it is
Speaker 1: it is touching all of these industries that sort of
Speaker 1: might have been seem to be permanent or immutable or
Speaker 1: long term. And this is why it was so interesting
Speaker 1: to write the story because you're speaking to professionals. You're
Speaker 1: not speaking to day trade as you're not speaking for
Speaker 1: the retail crowd. You're speaking to people who have qualifications
Speaker 1: and who are supposed to know what to say. And
Speaker 1: all they can say is, well, just wait and see
Speaker 1: the cycle may turn. Try and build a constructive portfolio.
Speaker 1: But you just have again on the FOMO front, you
Speaker 1: do not want to appear dumb in front of your client,
Speaker 1: and that, unafraid, is what a lot of these advisors
Speaker 1: are worried they are looking like today, which is dumb
Speaker 1: in front of this reality of the market. Just intense
Speaker 1: seconds advice. If you have FOMA, try and find something
Speaker 1: else to the balancing. However, you can maybe get outside
Speaker 1: and go for a run, although that could cause you
Speaker 1: to think about what you're missing out on. Leon O
Speaker 1: laurent Is, columnist at Bloomberg Opinion, joining us on the
Speaker 1: phone from Paris. Lenal stories the international cover of the
Speaker 1: new issue of Bloomberg Business Week magazine. You can read
Speaker 1: it at Bloomberg dot com slash business Week. I'm bromm
Speaker 1: a journal Yeah, but you let me drive. Oh no,
Speaker 1: no, no no, no, honey, please, I'll do the riding drivels.
Speaker 1: I want to drive, Just drive, baby, good question, trying.
Speaker 1: This is the drive to the clobe. Give me thanks.
Speaker 1: We'll drying us on Bloomberg Radio. It's the drive to
Speaker 1: the clothes. We are just a little over ten minutes
Speaker 1: away from the close of equity markets here on this Thursday,
Speaker 1: June tenth. Joining is always Hillo Kramer, President and Chief
Speaker 1: investment Officer at A and G Capital Research. She's also
Speaker 1: the author of Game Changer Investing, How to Profit from
Speaker 1: Tomorrow's billion dollar Trends. She joins us on the phone
Speaker 1: from Florida. Hillary, it's great to have you back with us.
Speaker 1: How are you, Damn, I'm very good. It's really exciting
Speaker 1: that COVID seems to be behind us here in Florida.
Speaker 1: Let's just hope that delta variant doesn't hit. Yeah, look,
Speaker 1: I hear you, and it certainly is a different story
Speaker 1: playing out in the rest of the world, but we
Speaker 1: are starting to feel a lot different here in New
Speaker 1: York as well. Hillary. I want to start just by
Speaker 1: talking about inflation, and then I do want to get
Speaker 1: to the many stocks that that that you want to
Speaker 1: talk about. But we can't ignore the CPI data that
Speaker 1: we got earlier today. And I find it just fascinating
Speaker 1: that both the equity market in the bond market really
Speaker 1: shrugging off the idea that this could be permanent inflation.
Speaker 1: The market was simply because of that, because the stock
Speaker 1: market loved at the bond market, as you say, Jim,
Speaker 1: really didn't freak out. It's just felt like that was normal.
Speaker 1: It was priced in. But I think that there's been
Speaker 1: some second thoughts because here later in the day, industrials, materials,
Speaker 1: financials started to lag. So this may start to register
Speaker 1: and the wage inflation is a significant problem for the
Speaker 1: margins on so many companies. We may see some major rotations.
Speaker 1: UH companies like Walmart, which are great portfolio staples but
Speaker 1: have one percent razor thin margins as long as they're
Speaker 1: paying people seventeen dollars an hour to stack shelves, which
Speaker 1: I think is great because people should make money and
Speaker 1: shouldn't be working and like starving and making and meat.
Speaker 1: But it's going to impact the stock price because the
Speaker 1: earnings are going to be impacted. And uh and it's
Speaker 1: just a tough time in the stock market to find
Speaker 1: good opportunities. Well, where are you finding some of those
Speaker 1: good opportunities, Hilary. I want to talk and to start
Speaker 1: with Chewy because they're reporting after the bell today. Chiwi
Speaker 1: is a great company. It had a year, you know,
Speaker 1: I was on top of Chili starting at twenty two
Speaker 1: dollars um and there's stock now at one point above
Speaker 1: a hundred and we could see a big jump today
Speaker 1: upwards to we's still doing great. The humanization of pets,
Speaker 1: there's been losses. We're not going to see um orneyes
Speaker 1: for share positive until the fourth quarter of this year.
Speaker 1: And uh. And it's very similar to the story you know, rotates,
Speaker 1: you know, settling now you know, then a story becomes
Speaker 1: especially on the Reddit trades. UH. Stocks like the st season,
Speaker 1: the Chewie's um have been us decide. But I am
Speaker 1: finding opportunities and I'm trying to find small caps but
Speaker 1: that our value plays. We found one company, Tennant. We've
Speaker 1: done a lot of work on TNC. It's scrubbers that
Speaker 1: scrubbers for the floor, not for the internet, scrubbers, vacuum
Speaker 1: as six dollar pieces of equipment for arenas and stadiums
Speaker 1: and Walmart and Costco and Sam's Club and Tennants filter
Speaker 1: replacement parts been around for over a hundred years. One
Speaker 1: point one percent give it in yield. And what I'm
Speaker 1: waiting for is at one point one billion dollar company
Speaker 1: from middle market private equity fund is going to start
Speaker 1: buying this thing up and we'll probably take it out,
Speaker 1: you know, because that's what they're all looking for. Everyone's
Speaker 1: searching for any opportunity where and at this point if
Speaker 1: they can make a double and there's so many private
Speaker 1: equity spinoff funds where to some funds, this might be
Speaker 1: nothing one point one billion to another it might be
Speaker 1: you know, the King's feast. Yeah, look, you make a hillar.
Speaker 1: You make a really good point. Because I did see
Speaker 1: and I mentioned this before, I saw tweet in recent
Speaker 1: weeks that said it's a really good time to be
Speaker 1: selling something because there is so much money out there.
Speaker 1: I'm wondering, though, what that tells you about where we
Speaker 1: are potentially in the market cycle. We're overstretched. We are
Speaker 1: as long as they said, doesn't you know, start to
Speaker 1: do what they need to do to con role inflation,
Speaker 1: raising rates. We're going to be fine. But there's going
Speaker 1: to be a tipping point something and we never know
Speaker 1: what it is, but we know it's coming. It's going
Speaker 1: to bring this market down. And there's so many traders
Speaker 1: on margin out there, there's so many individual retail traders.
Speaker 1: We could see like a math exodus and some trampling.
Speaker 1: That could be really bad. So everyone should keep their
Speaker 1: powder dry and get ready for the market to go
Speaker 1: down and look at it a buying opportunity. When when
Speaker 1: when is it realistic? Look, nobody has a crystal ball.
Speaker 1: If if anyone did, that would be game changing. But um,
Speaker 1: what is the realistic timeline that you're thinking of one
Speaker 1: of these downturns where you could take advantage of the
Speaker 1: dry powder. It could happen when tax legislation actually is enacted.
Speaker 1: That could be the major tipping points that starts some
Speaker 1: funds or some people selling it could be something geopolitical,
Speaker 1: or as we started this conversation, it could be this
Speaker 1: delta very that's closing down one third of the ports
Speaker 1: in China and which we're gonna see more of a
Speaker 1: hold up in semiconductors and all sorts of exports which
Speaker 1: are gonna make which you're going to make equipment and
Speaker 1: manufacturing a lot more difficult to fulfill and um. But
Speaker 1: but I still think that again him, there are opportunities,
Speaker 1: like in biotech, for example, ASCO, which is the big
Speaker 1: oncology meeting that happens once a year, was last week
Speaker 1: virtual and ASCO had some really incredible oncology news that
Speaker 1: came out of it, and oncology has really been on
Speaker 1: the oncology biotex box have relatively been ignored. The one
Speaker 1: that came out that's the biggest favorite is io Vance
Speaker 1: io b A that has some really solid data on
Speaker 1: melanoma immunotherapy and there's finally could be true true you know,
Speaker 1: large scale applicability instead of chemotherapy to do this turning
Speaker 1: cells against the bad selves and your body fighting your
Speaker 1: own war. But we think io vance, like Goldman Facts,
Speaker 1: that it's going to be more than three increase in
Speaker 1: the next twelve months. Now for an analyst to say that,
Speaker 1: there's got to be some real conviction around it. But
Speaker 1: the stock, uh you know, in the twenties has been
Speaker 1: over a hundred dollars a share, and that's the way
Speaker 1: biotech can go. But either are going to go off
Speaker 1: of uh you know, away from the vaccine stocks. Another one,
Speaker 1: rx O p r X. That's one right, um, you know,
Speaker 1: that's the one that spends the messages for pharmaceuticals and
Speaker 1: for scripture. We only have a couple of minutes left,
Speaker 1: so I wanted to make sure to touch on fintech
Speaker 1: because it's a category that is is incredibly hot right now.
Speaker 1: I feel like I'm seeing ads for fintech companies that
Speaker 1: I've never even heard of, that have multibillion dollar valuations
Speaker 1: at least by venture capitalists. Um, where are you see
Speaker 1: the opportunities with publicly traded companies fin tech? The best
Speaker 1: way to go would be keep it simple, don't go
Speaker 1: into any complexly you're better off with the pay pals
Speaker 1: of the world, and let them enter into the fintech arena.
Speaker 1: They have Zoom, they have Venmo, they have the power
Speaker 1: three fifteen billion dollar market cap pu y p L
Speaker 1: and continuing to grow. Fintech is just a word that
Speaker 1: everybody's chasing after. In many ways, I think fin tech
Speaker 1: is no different than Google already has um you know,
Speaker 1: the Google free and people able to make changes on
Speaker 1: a document on the Google system. So in many ways
Speaker 1: it's overrated. Look at how fast everyone was able to
Speaker 1: adjust when we had only a few days to close
Speaker 1: down states in the entire country. Uh, and we didn't
Speaker 1: need these spin tech companies to do it. Hillary Kramer
Speaker 1: is the president and chief investment officer at a n
Speaker 1: G Capital Research. She's also the author of Game Changer Investing,
Speaker 1: How to Profit from Tomorrow's billion dollar Trends. She joins
Speaker 1: us on the phone from Florida. Hillary, thank you so
Speaker 1: much for joining us again, and it's always great to
Speaker 1: have you. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Busines this week.
Speaker 1: Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com,
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