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Speaker 1: What's up, guys, How are you happy? Sunday? Welcome in

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Speaker 1: to another episode of the Daily Juice podcast. My name

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Speaker 1: is Matt Parolt. You guys can follow me across all

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Speaker 1: of my socials. And sorry for the roller coaster up

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Speaker 1: and down, up and down. It's been a crazy week,

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Speaker 1: really has. But we will take the four and oh Mark,

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Speaker 1: we bounced back. Lao goes off for us. Here's the thing.

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Speaker 1: I was changing the price and I was using the

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Speaker 1: day beforece price should have just used what I was using.

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Speaker 1: I apologize. That is the correct what I bet, that's

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Speaker 1: the correct price there. So we wound up up point

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Speaker 1: eighty three units on the RBI point appoint five to

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Speaker 1: five units on the run. Rays and Tigers flew over,

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Speaker 1: and then we had the easy, easy, easy bet of

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Speaker 1: the day, which was the under one nothing LSU wins

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Speaker 1: the first game of the College World Series. More in

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Speaker 1: that game here in just one second. It is a Sunday,

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Speaker 1: and so I went and did some accounting. We're up

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Speaker 1: for the week, which I was surprised. I didn't think

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Speaker 1: that was the case. But we're up about three units

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Speaker 1: for the week, so that's good. We are down for

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Speaker 1: the month of June for the whole month. We're down

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Speaker 1: about one and a half units for the month of June,

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Speaker 1: so we have a lot of time left. I mean

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Speaker 1: it's the twenty second so we still have quite a

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Speaker 1: bit of days left to go here and bets to

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Speaker 1: place before we get into it. But the NBA ends today.

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Speaker 1: If you are like me and you have a ticket

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Speaker 1: on OKAC, I would hedge. Okay, there's two ways of hedging.

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Speaker 1: You can take the points at plus seven and hope

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Speaker 1: that OKAC wins but doesn't cover. But I would say

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Speaker 1: if OKC is going to fail to cover the seven,

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Speaker 1: OKAC is going to lose the game outright. So I

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Speaker 1: think it's a better bet to bet OKC. Sorry to

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Speaker 1: bet Indiana on the money line at about plus two forty,

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Speaker 1: so I have a plus one ten, they have about

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Speaker 1: three units at plus one ten. I will bet coming

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Speaker 1: back here on the Pacers. Now, when will I do that,

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Speaker 1: I don't know. I haven't determined how I'm going to

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Speaker 1: do that yet. Who do I think is going to

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Speaker 1: win Oka? See, so I very well might wait until

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Speaker 1: the game tips off, But you play the whole year

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Speaker 1: for game seven, and I think that the thunder literally

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Speaker 1: punted Game six knowing they're going to win Game seven.

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Speaker 1: Let's see if that burns them. But I think they're

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Speaker 1: pretty confident at home. In Game seven's fifteen and four

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Speaker 1: teams in the NBA Finals when they're at home in

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Speaker 1: Game seven, they're fifteen and four. So this is now

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Speaker 1: the twentieth game, and if they win it, it would be,

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Speaker 1: you know, pretty impressive here in terms of basically eighty

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Speaker 1: percent of the time the teams at home win. So

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Speaker 1: I am leaning towards I'm not picking the Thunder to

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Speaker 1: win the game, but I'm not going to be dumb.

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Speaker 1: I do believe in risk management, so I will make

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Speaker 1: sure I'm not losing money on that play for the

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Speaker 1: Thunder to win the championship. But I just when am

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Speaker 1: I going to hedge? I don't really know as of yet.

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Speaker 1: As a win, I'm going to hedge. Okay, I have

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Speaker 1: one College World Series bet and I have four player

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Speaker 1: props for you guys, two in baseball, two in basketball.

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Speaker 1: This is the end of the NBA season, so I

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Speaker 1: have two full unit plays for US in NBA prop betting.

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Speaker 1: I have two half unit plays or to win a

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Speaker 1: half unit plays for Major League Baseball both or all

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Speaker 1: four were found by using the prop bet cheat sheet.

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Speaker 1: Have you done this yet? If you haven't, well you

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Speaker 1: can go and download the Betting Pros app. It's free, okay.

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Speaker 1: You can sync your sports books to the app to

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Speaker 1: track all your bets picks in place. Additionally, you can

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Speaker 1: use Betting pros Premium, which gives you full access to

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Speaker 1: everything with the prop bet analyzer and the prop bet

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Speaker 1: cheat sheet for free, simply by using the code Juice

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Speaker 1: for that seven day trial on the upgrade screen after

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Speaker 1: you download the Betting Pros app. So this is where

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Speaker 1: I get my bets. This is how I have been

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Speaker 1: cashing sixty five percent in the NBA this season for

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Speaker 1: player props now Major League Baseball. We've got some good trends,

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Speaker 1: we've got some good we've identified, you know, Brandon Lao

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Speaker 1: for one thing. We're back on him again today. So

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Speaker 1: we've id'd that from the prop bet cheat sheet. So

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Speaker 1: seven days free Betting Pros app. Download it now, sink

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Speaker 1: your sportsbooks. Use the code juice for a seven day

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Speaker 1: free trial of Betting pros Premium. So you guys can

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Speaker 1: get involved and see how I use the prop bet

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Speaker 1: cheat sheet WNBA prop bet cheat sheet. But as I

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Speaker 1: told you, I'm going to stay away from the w

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Speaker 1: for a while. So if you like betting the WNBA,

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Speaker 1: perfect time to go use the WNBA prop bet cheat

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Speaker 1: sheet and use it for that. So that's how we're

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Speaker 1: gonna do it. Let's get into it. Let's start with

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Speaker 1: Major League Baseball, and then we will get into it

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Speaker 1: here with the College World Series, and then we'll end

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Speaker 1: it with Game seven. Brandon Lao, Well, he's been hot,

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Speaker 1: like nuclear hot. If you want to bet him to

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Speaker 1: score a run today, I don't mind it, don't mind

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Speaker 1: it at all. Runs scored. He scored one run yesterday.

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Speaker 1: He scored zero against Detroit on Friday, zero against Baltimore

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Speaker 1: on Thursday, but that snapped a streak in which he

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Speaker 1: scored two one one one, two one one all the

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Speaker 1: way back to the eleventh of June. If you want

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Speaker 1: to bet Brandon Law to score a run today, I

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Speaker 1: don't hate the play at all. In fact, I think

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Speaker 1: it's a good bet. Okay to go ahead and make it.

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Speaker 1: I think it's a good bet. However, the prop bet

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Speaker 1: cheat sheet is identifying a different play, and the prop

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Speaker 1: bet cheat sheet is looking at total basis for Brendan Lao. Now, now, look,

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Speaker 1: there's always some concern here when it comes to total

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Speaker 1: basis simply because one hit does not get it done.

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Speaker 1: You need a double. So if you go by what

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Speaker 1: has happened here for Brandon Lao, yesterday, Brandon Lao was productive,

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Speaker 1: but he was one for four, scored a run, drove

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Speaker 1: in or run, but didn't get two bases. He went

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Speaker 1: under one and a half total basis. He also went

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Speaker 1: under one and a half total bases on Friday, and

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Speaker 1: he went under two bases on Thursday. On Wednesday, though,

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Speaker 1: he hit a home run and that got us there.

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Speaker 1: On Tuesday he had two hits and that got us there.

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Speaker 1: On Monday he had two hits and that got us there.

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Speaker 1: So the prop bet Chichi is projecting two for Brandon Lao.

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Speaker 1: Two bases. If he gets a double, we got it.

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Speaker 1: A triple, we got it, hits a home run, we

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Speaker 1: got it. I mean, Brandon Lao has been one of

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Speaker 1: the best hitters here and the over for this game.

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Speaker 1: I don't hate it. Casey Mice is going though for

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Speaker 1: the Tigers, and Casey Mice on the road a three

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Speaker 1: point eight two era, a three to two mark posting

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Speaker 1: betting average two seventy four, is given up sixteen earned

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Speaker 1: runs in thirty seven and two thirds innings worth of work,

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Speaker 1: and he'll be going up against Zach Lettel, who hasn't

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Speaker 1: been awful at homes. Okay, three point five seven ERA

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Speaker 1: two and four record two sixty of posting betting average,

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Speaker 1: eighteen earned runs, forty five innings worth of work. Like

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Speaker 1: I told you yesterday, I like the Yankees on the

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Speaker 1: run line. They won nine to nothing. I like this

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Speaker 1: game to go over. I mean the Tigers are the

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Speaker 1: number one team to overs so far, and it is

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Speaker 1: I mean, the Tigers are due to have a big

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Speaker 1: game today. Offensively, they have scored eight and three, but

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Speaker 1: they've given up a whopping twenty two runs to this

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Speaker 1: Ray's offense. So it's Sunday and wonky things can happen.

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Speaker 1: So I'm not recommending. I'm not making an official, but

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Speaker 1: if you want to play the old in this game,

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Speaker 1: I don't hate the over. This is an early start

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Speaker 1: time in Tampa, but I mean eight and a half

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Speaker 1: again slightly juiced to the over. I mean again, it

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Speaker 1: was eight and a half yesterday. It flew over. I

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Speaker 1: think you're gonna go eight and a half. Again, let's

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Speaker 1: just keep betting the rate. The Tigers on the road

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Speaker 1: here and Tigers against its Rays offense that are simply

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Speaker 1: on fire. But the official play is going to be

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Speaker 1: over one and a half total bases for Brandon Lao

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Speaker 1: brought bet chee sheet likes it to basically go with two.

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Speaker 1: It's a five star play. It's a plus twenty five

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Speaker 1: ev play, not the highest it can be. But the

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Speaker 1: only thing that concerns me touch is that he hasn't

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Speaker 1: been all that consistent with this with two bases, but

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Speaker 1: a double and we're good. So Lao gets a double,

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Speaker 1: Low hits a triple, hits a home run, we get there.

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Speaker 1: He hits two singles, we get there. But I'd rather

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Speaker 1: have the double for Brandon Lao. We're gonna play it

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Speaker 1: for to win a half a unit. It is plus

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Speaker 1: money at plus one fifteen. Brandon Lau over one and

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Speaker 1: a half bases today up against the Tigers. Second prop

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Speaker 1: and this is the number one prop and a highly

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Speaker 1: highly recommended play here by the prop bit cheat sheet.

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Speaker 1: Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman in dh Josh Naylor. Josh Naylor

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Speaker 1: one and a half total basis prop bet cheat sheets

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Speaker 1: projecting three and a half. That is the number one

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Speaker 1: largest differential from the prop bet to the actual projection

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Speaker 1: on the board. It's a thirty percent positive ev Play

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Speaker 1: five star rated and it's a little expensive. It's minus

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Speaker 1: one forty. But Josh Naylor has been pretty productive, and

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Speaker 1: it's against the Rockies. Like whenever you're going up against

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Speaker 1: the Rockies, will look to back it. And the Diamondbacks

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Speaker 1: obviously have won the first two games of this series

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Speaker 1: fourteen to eight and five to three. They go for

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Speaker 1: the sweep. Here Brandon fat on the mound against Antonio Sensatela,

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Speaker 1: and we faded Sensatela a ton at home. He is

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Speaker 1: a seven point five to one eer, a one in

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Speaker 1: five mark, a three forty seven at posing batting average,

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Speaker 1: came up thirty two earned runs in thirty eight and

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Speaker 1: a third innings worth of work, fifty nine hits and

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Speaker 1: six home runs. Senzila's give it up just at home,

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Speaker 1: just at home, fifty four hits on the road on

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Speaker 1: top of that, so I mean we're talking about his

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Speaker 1: whip not great for walks hits allowed here for Antonio Sinzdela.

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Speaker 1: This is obviously a matchup of the prop bit cheat

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Speaker 1: sheet really likes. We're gonna bet it to win a

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Speaker 1: half a unit. Put a half unit down on it

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Speaker 1: to win a half unit at Mie one forty for

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Speaker 1: over one and a half bases for a Josh Nayler

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Speaker 1: prop today. So two baseball plays Brandon Lau over one

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Speaker 1: and a half total bases and Josh Naylor over one

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Speaker 1: and a half total basis. It's Sunday. I always tell

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Speaker 1: you Sunday wonky. So I don't love betting baseball on Sundays,

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Speaker 1: but you know, it's just it is. It is what

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Speaker 1: it is in terms of, you know, betting today, I

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Speaker 1: don't mind betting the Sunday night baseball game. And that's

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Speaker 1: the Phillies and the Mets. What's up with the Mets?

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Speaker 1: You want to get involved with the Mets? I kind

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Speaker 1: of don't. The Mets won eleven to four yesterday and

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Speaker 1: snap their losing streak, so they bounce back today. It's

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Speaker 1: Lizardo against Peterson. It feels like it under, but you know,

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Speaker 1: ten to eleven four you want to play the under

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Speaker 1: in Philadelphia. I don't feels like an under, but I

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Speaker 1: don't think it's I mean, I'm not betting it, so

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Speaker 1: I lean toward the under nine and a half for

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Speaker 1: the Mets and the Phillies on Sunday Night baseball. But

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Speaker 1: let's talk Game two College World Series. So we were

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Speaker 1: dead right betting the under. Okay, win was a big

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Speaker 1: deal with that okay, wind all over the place. You

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Speaker 1: watched the Cub game yesterday, My god, it was a

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Speaker 1: softball game. So the wind blowing in in Omaha. I

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Speaker 1: knew that someone had tipped me off saying the wind's

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Speaker 1: gonna blow in Omaha. Won nothing. Unbelievable pitching performance. I mean,

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Speaker 1: Kate Anderson kids going number one? Okay, any questions about

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Speaker 1: him being the first pick in the draft, much like

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Speaker 1: last year, you know, or two years ago when we

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Speaker 1: watched you know, the other LSU great pitcher go in

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Speaker 1: in mowdown players in Paul Skeens. Well, Anderson's the next guy,

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Speaker 1: so he'll be the first pick in the draft. He

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Speaker 1: threw one hundred and seventeen pitches whatever it was, in

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Speaker 1: a complete game. It was insane what he threw. So

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Speaker 1: that was awesome. Leave him out there, let him knock

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Speaker 1: it down. Win the game one nothing win for the

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Speaker 1: LSU Tigers. Coastal is countering today with their version of

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Speaker 1: Kate Anderson. Now he's not ads good, but he's damn good.

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Speaker 1: Jacob Morrison. He made headlines before game one when he

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Speaker 1: was asked about what does he admire about LSU baseball

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Speaker 1: and he said, quote, not a whole lot, and that

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Speaker 1: got people's attention. But this kid is really good. I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is a kid who is going to be up

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Speaker 1: for the moment, and I think this is a kid

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Speaker 1: that's going to allow the team to bounce back. The

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Speaker 1: sophomore season for Morrison Sun Belt Picture of the Year.

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Speaker 1: He's twelve and zero. He has a two point eight

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Speaker 1: ERA one hundred and two strikeouts in one hundred and

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Speaker 1: four innings in eighteen and two third innings. In the

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Speaker 1: NCAA tournament, He's allowed six earned runs in eighteen strikeouts.

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Speaker 1: This is exactly who you want on the mound in

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Speaker 1: a must win situation for Coastal, and I do think

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Speaker 1: Coastal is going to score today. Yes, the pitchers for

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Speaker 1: LSU are great, but this is the guy that you

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Speaker 1: want on the mound for Coastal, and I thought LSU

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Speaker 1: games wins Game one, Coastal wins Game two, and then

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Speaker 1: Game three it's kind of all hands on deck, and

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Speaker 1: who can pitch for either team for the College World Series.

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Speaker 1: I like Coastal today slight dog, not plus money, but

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Speaker 1: most books have it at minus one to eight or

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Speaker 1: minus one ten for Coastal. I like the Chan Deschanta

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Speaker 1: clears to bounce back here and even up the series

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Speaker 1: at one game apiece. We're playing a game three. I'll

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Speaker 1: take Coastal on the money line at minus one ten.

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Speaker 1: All right, tonight, we've got Game seven, cool baby, Game

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Speaker 1: seven NBA Finals. I want to go out betting on

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Speaker 1: the most profitable thing that we have bet all season

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Speaker 1: off the prop betche sheet. Points rebounds and assists under

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Speaker 1: Alex Caruso a sixty six percent cover probability. It's only

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Speaker 1: a twenty three percent expected value play, but it's a

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Speaker 1: five star play under fifteen and a half points rebounds

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Speaker 1: and assists for Alex Caruso. In Game six he had five.

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Speaker 1: In Game five he had six. He's just not getting

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Speaker 1: a ton of action, all right. It was seventeen and

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Speaker 1: a half, it was sixteen and a half. Now it's

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Speaker 1: fifteen and a half. Because he's sort of fallen out

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Speaker 1: of favor. He went one for eight. In Game five

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Speaker 1: he went over two from the field, oh for one

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Speaker 1: from behind the three point line. In Game six he

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Speaker 1: had three rebounds in two assists. He's just not really

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Speaker 1: part of the rotation at the moment. Now. Could that

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Speaker 1: change tonight for Game seven? Maybe, But I think you're

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Speaker 1: gonna see the starters play a lot here. Rick Carlisle

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Speaker 1: is a really good coach, and Rick Carlile is in

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Speaker 1: the heads of the coaching staff and Dagna Mark Dagnall company.

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Speaker 1: This is his first Game seven in the finals. Okay,

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Speaker 1: this guy has coached scared at certain points of this season,

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Speaker 1: and I think there's a big coaching mismatch. I think

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Speaker 1: Caruso is a guy that wasn't used in Game six.

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Speaker 1: I don't think he'll be used much in Game seven.

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Speaker 1: Prop bet Chichet likes this under. We're gonna follow it

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Speaker 1: under fourteen and a half. By the way, it opened

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Speaker 1: at at fourteen and a half. It was bet up

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Speaker 1: to fifteen and a half, simply because I think the

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Speaker 1: other prop bets, you know, all year has been fourteen

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Speaker 1: and a half, fifteen and a half or sixteen and

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Speaker 1: a half, and he's gone over that. But the last

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Speaker 1: two game at seventeen and a half in sixteen and

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Speaker 1: a half, Alex Caruso has not been there. We have

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Speaker 1: been very good with points, rebounds and assists this year

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Speaker 1: off the prop bet cheat sheet. Let's follow it. Alex

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Speaker 1: Caruso under fifteen and a half points, rebounds and assists.

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Speaker 1: And finally, and there have been bets where I have

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Speaker 1: looked at the prop bet cheat sheet and I'm gone,

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Speaker 1: really wow, this is one of them. But the prop

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Speaker 1: bet cheat sheet, I followed it most of the year

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Speaker 1: and it's been great. The favorite play. The only five

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Speaker 1: star play for Tyree's Halliburton on the board is over

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Speaker 1: two and a half made threes for Tyree's Halliburton. This

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Speaker 1: is a plus one forty bet. So the books think

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Speaker 1: he's going to hit two, but if you look at

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Speaker 1: the way that Halliburton has played, this is a fifty

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Speaker 1: eight percent cover probability, which isn't great. Thirty eight percent

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Speaker 1: expected value play though, which is great in a five

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Speaker 1: star play. On top of that, he has gone he

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Speaker 1: hit three last game in game six zero in the

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Speaker 1: game that he was hurt in game five one in

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Speaker 1: game number four, and then four, three and two from

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Speaker 1: games three, two and one, so over in game six,

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Speaker 1: over in game three, over in game two, under in

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Speaker 1: game one for Terry's Halliburton over two and a half

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Speaker 1: made threes. If this game goes the way most people think,

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Speaker 1: and that would be up tempo, and that would be okay,

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Speaker 1: see potentially getting a big lead at some point, Haliburton's

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Speaker 1: gonna need to shoot threes. And the way he played

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Speaker 1: in game six, it's hard not to see him replicate

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Speaker 1: the three for seven from behind the arc shooting. He's

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Speaker 1: gonna put up the threes. We know he's gonna put

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Speaker 1: up a ton seven or eight attempts. That's happened for Haliburton.

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Speaker 1: I'll take the flyer for our life. Last game in

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Speaker 1: the NBA prop at cheat sheet likes it. Let's trail

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Speaker 1: it at plus one forty Terry's Halliburton over two and

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Speaker 1: a half made threes tonight for game seven. All right,

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Speaker 1: so are plays for today? Brandon Lau over one and

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Speaker 1: a half total basis, Josh Naylor over one and a

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Speaker 1: half total basis in Major League Baseball. Bet those two

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Speaker 1: win a half a unit Coastal money Line Game two

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Speaker 1: College World Series for them to even up their best

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Speaker 1: of three against LSU and Mius one oh eight for

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Speaker 1: one point zero eight units, Alex Caruso points, rebounds and

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Speaker 1: assists under fifteen and a half today for one point

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Speaker 1: one to five units, and Terry's Haliburton over two and

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Speaker 1: a half made threes at plus one forty that for

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Speaker 1: a unit. To wrap up the NBA season for US

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Speaker 1: here today. My name is Matt Perolt. You guys can

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Speaker 1: follow me across all my socials at Sports Talk Matt

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Speaker 1: every morning wherever you guys get your podcasts. It is

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Speaker 1: the Daily Juice