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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Schad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: The Action Network is the company that provides you with

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Speaker 1: all the betting information, research data picks that you need.

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Speaker 1: Get it all in our free award winning app downloaded

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Speaker 1: the Action Network App. I am joined by my bff,

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Speaker 1: my companion, Mika Padre, Professional Better, Simon Hunter, my brother.

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Speaker 1: What's going on, Chad, buddy? It was. It was a

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Speaker 1: great scene yesterday. It was one of those uh rare

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Speaker 1: occasions we had to hang out for an entire debt.

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Speaker 1: We had a full day together yesterday. Uh the entire

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Speaker 1: Action Network crew, or a lot of the Action Network crew,

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Speaker 1: Me You, Brett McMurphy, Capital, j A k A Sources,

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Speaker 1: Dan Revel, Raheem Palmer, Amanda Rose, our video team. It

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Speaker 1: was fantastic. We were in a studio in Brooklyn, New York.

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Speaker 1: We were very cool, We were very hipster. It was

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Speaker 1: a street that was just warehouses, combination of studios, auto

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Speaker 1: body shops, metalworks shops, um like hipster bars, hipster bars,

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Speaker 1: everything graffitied and we're walking around like we belong. We

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Speaker 1: were doing a full day of video stuff that we

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Speaker 1: need to populate our YouTube page, action network on YouTube,

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Speaker 1: stuff that we need to support, sponsor videos, all this

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Speaker 1: great stuff. We had a great conversation about what a

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Speaker 1: sports betting Hall of Fame would look like. Um, really fun,

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Speaker 1: really great day. It was great to see you. You

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Speaker 1: look fantastic. I mean I definitely anytime I left the

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Speaker 1: walk around, I definitely got a lot of side eyes

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Speaker 1: because I looked like I was going to church and

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Speaker 1: people on that street were just like, what's the deal

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Speaker 1: with this guy? Um? My favorite part chat was how

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Speaker 1: comfortable you are in front of cameras. I mean, you

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Speaker 1: couldn't have been any happier to take photos do videos.

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Speaker 1: I mean you were in your element me, I was

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Speaker 1: joking the camera guy. That's my first photos probably like

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Speaker 1: since high school and twenty years ago for prom. I

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Speaker 1: haven't had photos like that and that long. And it

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Speaker 1: was just very uncomfortable for me. But it was fun

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Speaker 1: definitely being up there. But it's definitely like a normal guy.

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Speaker 1: I hate looking at myself, so it was pretty uncomfortable

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Speaker 1: with the whole take twenty photos or take a hundred

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Speaker 1: photos and then do videos. It was it was different,

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Speaker 1: Uh that it was. It was. It was a really

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Speaker 1: fun day as usual. Uh. You were astute in pointing

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Speaker 1: out all the things I don't want people to notice

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Speaker 1: about me. Huge show today, we gotta go over a

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Speaker 1: Survivor pick. We gotta introduce some money line parlays. Uh.

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Speaker 1: We gotta narrowed down our final five. UM reminder, I'll

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Speaker 1: be on with Colin uh tomorrow, which I challenge him

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Speaker 1: against his picks. Uh. Sunday morning convinced me at Action

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Speaker 1: Network HQ eleven am. We've got some reviews. We did

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Speaker 1: our big balls better the week on Tuesday, that was

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Speaker 1: the San Francisco forty niners. I'm already regretting it, Simon.

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Speaker 1: I'm seeing a lot of reastarch that makes me think

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Speaker 1: we want to be on the packers. We said, Simon

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Speaker 1: says the Bengals, and now that that line has moved considerably, huge,

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Speaker 1: huge sharp action coming in on the Bengals. They are

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Speaker 1: definitely the sharp side. We're gonna go over all of it, Simon.

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Speaker 1: I get these notes from this guy on Twitter, these

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Speaker 1: d ms he goes by John Doe on Twitter and

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Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell. I don't know if it's you with a

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Speaker 1: burner account, They are some of the best content production

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Speaker 1: notes that I get and like he will give me feedback,

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Speaker 1: he gives insight. He is so spot on. And today

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Speaker 1: it was his note for today it was like, I

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Speaker 1: think the Thursday show is really an update? What's going

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Speaker 1: on with injuries? What are Simon sources saying about who

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Speaker 1: will be out, who's playing? What to look for before Sunday?

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Speaker 1: Also bigger look at the at the line movement, the

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Speaker 1: bet percentage, the money percentage. The Falcon's Giants split is interesting.

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Speaker 1: Wonder why it hasn't fallen. Do the books know something?

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Speaker 1: I need to challenge you more. Last Thursday, several times

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Speaker 1: you said nothing has changed, But what were you looking

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Speaker 1: for to change in particular matchups? And if nothing has changed,

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Speaker 1: what does that mean? Visa be the number. This guy's

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Speaker 1: notes are amazing. I don't know who the funk he is.

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Speaker 1: I agree with everything he said. I don't know this guy.

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Speaker 1: I hate him. Okay, it sounds like he's in your head.

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Speaker 1: I'm sick of it already. I hate this guy. Oh

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Speaker 1: my god, I can't believe you're you're You're like a

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Speaker 1: little bit challenged and a little bit sensitive. I could

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Speaker 1: go tennantete with his picks to you in the DM chat.

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Speaker 1: I'm cor in my position, my friend, Listen, he's not

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Speaker 1: looking to to challenge you in your picks. I think

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Speaker 1: he loves you and your picks. I think he's looking

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Speaker 1: he wants even more information than I'm pulling from you

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Speaker 1: right now. It's more of a critique of the way

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Speaker 1: I'm managing the show performance. I'll never be able to

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Speaker 1: give injury updates on Thursday. I'm just like everyone else.

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Speaker 1: I'm I'm waiting for injury reports on Sunday. NFL teams

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Speaker 1: lie constantly, but I'm always definitely the lookout and always

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Speaker 1: looking for information that way. Um So, yeah, if I

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Speaker 1: ever get any type of information like that, I would

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Speaker 1: definitely say it on this show. So we had eight

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Speaker 1: games that we had squared that we wanted to talk

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Speaker 1: about that we're going to keep an eye on, and

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Speaker 1: then over the past couple of days, I've had two

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Speaker 1: more games that I've sort of been continuing to do

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Speaker 1: research on that are making me think twice. Let's start

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Speaker 1: with the eight games. I think there's a couple of

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Speaker 1: games early on we can agree on Chargers plus six

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Speaker 1: and a half against the Chiefs. I love this game.

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Speaker 1: I love it. I continue to love it. Let me

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Speaker 1: give you a little bit of data. Okay, you pointed

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Speaker 1: out on Tuesday. You pointed out on Tuesday it's been

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Speaker 1: nine games since the Chiefs covered the spread, excluding Week

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Speaker 1: seventeen last year, a meetingless game, and they've all been

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Speaker 1: one score games. You're spot on about this game. I

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Speaker 1: love it. We're screwed. Uh, it feels too easy, Chat,

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Speaker 1: It's definitely one of these games I keep looking at

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Speaker 1: over and over again because something just feels a little

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Speaker 1: off about it. Love the number though, like we talked

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Speaker 1: about on Tuesday, nothing has changed in this fact six

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Speaker 1: and a half grade number. I was hoping to go

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Speaker 1: back to seven. That's a lot of the pros hid

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Speaker 1: it at um. Still, we love the six and a

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Speaker 1: half a divisional game that we've seen it. With the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs defense, they can be a run on at will.

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Speaker 1: And this team with the Chargers, you can see what

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Speaker 1: they want. That offensive line is pretty good. They're gonna

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Speaker 1: be able to run the ball against this this week

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Speaker 1: Chiefs front. So we we just were expecting a very

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Speaker 1: close game here. Chat. And the fact that it's two

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Speaker 1: points higher than what it should be just because it

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Speaker 1: is the Chiefs. This is why the Chiefs keep not covering,

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Speaker 1: because the lines keep getting bumped up this way. So

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Speaker 1: we're gonna keep riding this trending. We're gonna take the

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Speaker 1: Chargers here. Yeah, there's a pretty specific pattern here. The

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Speaker 1: Chiefs are the public darling. Their lines get over inflated,

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Speaker 1: they don't cover. The games are closer than everyone thinks

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Speaker 1: they should be. All reiterate one or eight in the

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Speaker 1: last night against the spread. All those are one score

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Speaker 1: games since two thousand three, divisional dogs of three or

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Speaker 1: more according to bet Labs, are database of literally millions

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Speaker 1: of data points in bedding going back to two thousand

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Speaker 1: and three. Since two thousand three, divisional dogs of three

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Speaker 1: or more four oh eight eighteen against the spread, which

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Speaker 1: is what you need to be a profitable better um.

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Speaker 1: The systems, the market, the stats are all telling us

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Speaker 1: the Chargers the right side here and again. These are

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Speaker 1: the kind of bets you make, and when you lose it,

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Speaker 1: you don't get pissed yourself. There's nothing you can do.

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Speaker 1: In the end. It comes down then playing a sport.

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Speaker 1: But this is the data you need to use. People

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Speaker 1: like all these little factors playing to making these kind

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Speaker 1: of bets because you know, long term this is a

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Speaker 1: winning in bet, and even short term this feels like

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Speaker 1: the smart play because just what we've seen with these

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Speaker 1: two teams, like the Chargers, both their games have been

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Speaker 1: incredibly close, and we've seen it with the Chiefs. I mean,

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Speaker 1: they should have dominated the Ravens, they just don't have

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Speaker 1: the defense to do it. This team does not have

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Speaker 1: the defense really put teams away, and they always let

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Speaker 1: the back door be opened. So that's why we like

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Speaker 1: this number so much. Shut the professional betters like yourself,

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Speaker 1: you've probably got this game power rated at three and

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Speaker 1: a half or four. Um. You also noted this is

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Speaker 1: a pro versus Joe game. Majority of bets coming in

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Speaker 1: on the Chiefs right now, but this line moved down

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Speaker 1: from seven to six and a half and it's kind

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Speaker 1: of just been sitting there. I guess the only question,

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Speaker 1: Simon is do we wait, like do we think on

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Speaker 1: Sunday so much more money is going to come in

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Speaker 1: on the Chiefs, especially because the Chargers lost to the Cowboys,

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Speaker 1: that there's a chance to get the extra half point

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Speaker 1: or do we go get it now or do we

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Speaker 1: get it now? And get it it. Sut, Yeah, you

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Speaker 1: can get it now, you could. Wait, I don't. I

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Speaker 1: just don't see it going back to seven. The pros

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Speaker 1: every time they move with the seven, they hit it. Um.

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Speaker 1: It's the same thing with the Ravens. Anytime the Ravens

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Speaker 1: touched plus four, the professional has come back in on

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Speaker 1: And that's why I kept going back on the plus

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Speaker 1: three and a half last week. So it's just a

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Speaker 1: pro number. Um, maybe it could, like you said, the

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Speaker 1: public could come in so heavy on parlays and teasers

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Speaker 1: and things like that that they could bump the back

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Speaker 1: up to seven. Well, it's such a key number, like

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Speaker 1: we talked all the time that I just cannot see

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Speaker 1: the bookmakers do and I think they'll just keep it

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Speaker 1: at six and a half. My feeling is that Charters

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Speaker 1: will one be one of our best five on Sunday,

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Speaker 1: no doubt. Okay, the next game we got to talk about.

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Speaker 1: It's so ugly and this is where I feel like,

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Speaker 1: are we making mistakes and how we're thinking about the

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Speaker 1: contest right because the Jags are seven and a half

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Speaker 1: point home underdogs on on paper. I know the games

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Speaker 1: aren't played on paper, but bets are made on paper,

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Speaker 1: on paper, one d sent we should be taking the

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Speaker 1: Jags in this game. There's zero zero doubt, agree or disagree.

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Speaker 1: It's again we saw it on Tuesday. It was one

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Speaker 1: of those I said, this is a no brainer. You

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Speaker 1: bet you bet the Jacks here, We're gonna be the

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Speaker 1: only couple of people still betting the Jags. Um. We

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Speaker 1: talked about it. This could be a complete meltdown of

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Speaker 1: a team. UM, I wish we just trusted. I just

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Speaker 1: trusted my gut when we talked, you know, a month

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Speaker 1: and a half ago, and I said, yeah, not that

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Speaker 1: big of a fan of Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson.

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Speaker 1: Are we sure this kids should be the second pick overall?

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Speaker 1: And this Jets doesn't have all these holes and the

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Speaker 1: same thing the Jaguars we talked about, this team has

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Speaker 1: so many holes and weaknesses. You're bringing in a college

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Speaker 1: coach like Urban Meyer. He gives that terrible quote to

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Speaker 1: Vic van Jo, who just seldom right down the river, saying,

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Speaker 1: this guy came up with me and said, it's like

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Speaker 1: you play Alabama every week, Like no ship this these guys,

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Speaker 1: it's the best of the best. Um Man bad chat, bad, bad, bad.

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Speaker 1: It could all be on fire. Yes, I will not

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Speaker 1: make people put this in our in our contest because

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Speaker 1: I feel bad losing people's good, hard earned money on

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Speaker 1: the Jaguars. But you have to bet this game. It's

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Speaker 1: such a pro game. You take the seven and a

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Speaker 1: half home dog against a team that what a win

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Speaker 1: for the Cardinals. They know they got away with him

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Speaker 1: last week. They're gonna be feeling good all this week.

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Speaker 1: We like to fade Kingsbury. It's we do not believe

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Speaker 1: this guy's head coach. And on top of that, the

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Speaker 1: Cardinals defense is one of the you know, worst grade

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Speaker 1: of defenses this year. They can be run on, huge,

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Speaker 1: gaping holes for that team, especially last week in Stalvin Cook.

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Speaker 1: So it's a game we think Robinson will get right

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Speaker 1: and Trevor Lawrence. You won't turn the boliver as much.

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Speaker 1: Seven and a half. It's too big of a number.

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Speaker 1: This Cardinals team should not be favored by that much.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, because look like idiots come next week when

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Speaker 1: the Jaguars get blown out again. But I have to

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Speaker 1: as a professional bettert number. But I'm not. I'm not

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Speaker 1: gonna make you make our best five chat. Don't worry.

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Speaker 1: It is a sharp play only be because when a

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Speaker 1: team is this big of an underdog at home, you

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Speaker 1: historically have to bet it. And the Cardinals, I think

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Speaker 1: a lot of professional betters they look at these games

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Speaker 1: and think the Cardinals are suspect. They think a they

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Speaker 1: can't trust Cliff Kingsbury. We know this. Matt Mitchell knows this.

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Speaker 1: He's done his Cliff Kingsbury rant. Have you about the

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Speaker 1: Lords and loser? He's all us about. He still keeps

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Speaker 1: I'll try. They are a a shoot for the moon,

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Speaker 1: need miracle, big plays in order to win games. We

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Speaker 1: saw it against Minnesota. That Minnesota team is not very good.

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Speaker 1: There's the jury still out on this Tennessee team. They

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Speaker 1: might not be very good. They've played, you know, two

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Speaker 1: games plus an extra quarter except for the fourth quarter

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Speaker 1: they have and and that overtime. They haven't been very good.

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Speaker 1: And so now the Cardinals. If you start to look back,

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Speaker 1: this is when we start to get a little bit,

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Speaker 1: you know, of the opportunity to see how these teams

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Speaker 1: have played. Carters will play two teams that might be

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Speaker 1: mediocre but have one in spectacular fashion. Every fiber of

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Speaker 1: our being should say, take the Jags in this spot, Um,

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Speaker 1: there's plenty of systems that will tell you owing two

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Speaker 1: teams as dogs at home are the right side. But

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Speaker 1: urban Meyer genuinely is out of his debt. And you

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Speaker 1: mentioned the vic Banjio thing. He sounded like tweetled Dean tweeedled,

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Speaker 1: don't what a tool. The reason I'm so call shop

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Speaker 1: putting this one in is because the Jets. This reminds

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Speaker 1: me of the Jets last year. The Jets and the

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Speaker 1: Cowboys I think both started your own five or owned

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Speaker 1: six against the spread. So some of these teams that suck,

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Speaker 1: they just simply suck and they just don't cover because

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Speaker 1: they are so bad and so on. Now, the coaching

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Speaker 1: is the biggest thing in football. If you don't have

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Speaker 1: the coaching, doesn't matter all the skill and talent you

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Speaker 1: have on the team, it's just not gonna mesh well.

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Speaker 1: So that's that's why I'm such I'm so hesitant to

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Speaker 1: put it in our place, just because of that factor.

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Speaker 1: It's like, you know what, maybe the Jaguars aren't the

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Speaker 1: right value yet, and the bookmakers they're still trying to

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Speaker 1: catch up to it, and everyone's getting good read here

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Speaker 1: are the Cardinals. But like you just said, Chad. The

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Speaker 1: own two trends is what we're playing off of here

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Speaker 1: and own two trend of you know, I believe it's

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Speaker 1: have well above six percent clip the last couple of

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Speaker 1: years of this. The week three teams that haven't covered

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Speaker 1: against the spread yet. So we we were gonna avoid

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Speaker 1: the Atlanta Falcons were owing two against the spread. But

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Speaker 1: we ain't gonna avoid the Jaguars. We're bad and the

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Speaker 1: Jaguars comes some day. Well, I'm gonna give you all

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Speaker 1: the O and two trends and and I blatantly stole

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Speaker 1: these O and two trends uh from Stuckey Action Network hand.

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Speaker 1: It was Stucky the Volume podcast Network. Fans can hear

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Speaker 1: him on John Middlecops podcast every week. People should download

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Speaker 1: the Action Network podcast, one of the top sixty ranked

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Speaker 1: sports podcasts. Uh. He and Chris Raybon will go over

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Speaker 1: there Sunday six pack and he loves the O and

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Speaker 1: two trends and has a litany of them. And I

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Speaker 1: know that we're going to get to its team that

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Speaker 1: we love as an Owen two dog. But I will

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Speaker 1: weigh them all out. Um, but at this point, the Jags,

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Speaker 1: it's a pass for me. Yeah, we pass. I love

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Speaker 1: that we're being mature enough to recognize that that we're

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Speaker 1: not just saying, oh yeah, we gotta take it. It's

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Speaker 1: a pass. I was better personally. That's why like I'm

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Speaker 1: trying to put my best five in this thing where

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Speaker 1: it's like I I feel terrible about last week with

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Speaker 1: Atlanta because that was just brutal. These people are such

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Speaker 1: high hopes. You know, they're only down three, they had

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Speaker 1: the ball back to back pick six is and a

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Speaker 1: Brady touchdown later. They're down twenty one. So I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: be trying to be a little more sharper with this contest,

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Speaker 1: for I won't always just put in the sharp numbers

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Speaker 1: the Titans and the Colts. The Titans are five five

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Speaker 1: and a half point favorites. You like the Titans? Uh?

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Speaker 1: If I can, I'm throwing a challenge flag. I'm starting

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Speaker 1: to feel like I like the Colts. I'm sure you do.

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Speaker 1: It's the sharp better the week. That's why I'm fading it.

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Speaker 1: It's it's too how can how can people have been

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Speaker 1: on the Colts when this quarterback position is deceased? They

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Speaker 1: do not have a quarterback on this roster right now,

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Speaker 1: and maybe this Ski will come in and let up

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Speaker 1: the world because Tennessee's cornerbacks are that bad. But I

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Speaker 1: can't do it, can't play with him, can't win with them.

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Speaker 1: Uh now, I'm just I would just stay away from

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't make you put in our contest. But it's

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Speaker 1: one of the few favorites I do like this week

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Speaker 1: where if this was Carson Wentz, I'd be all over

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Speaker 1: the Colts in a divisional game. This line should be three,

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Speaker 1: three and a half because I don't, like we talked

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Speaker 1: about all year, I don't think Tennessee as good as

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Speaker 1: people think they are. But with a backup quarterback on

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Speaker 1: this Colts team, when they don't have a left tackle

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Speaker 1: on this team, uh yeah, I can't. Can't do it

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Speaker 1: with the Colts. So you don't feel like you feel

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Speaker 1: like there's that much of a drop off from Carson

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Speaker 1: Wentz to Jacob Eason. Don't you feel like you might

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Speaker 1: still be over rating Carson Wentz just a little bit?

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Speaker 1: Carson Wentz who just lost the three points at home

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Speaker 1: to the Rams. No, I think he's properly rated. He's good,

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Speaker 1: but he's not great. He's better than this backup quarterback

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Speaker 1: they're bringing Easton let's he a sixth round pick. The

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Speaker 1: way in which you just dismissed my comment about Carson Wentz, Uh,

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Speaker 1: that was kind of hurtful because if he played on

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Speaker 1: the Bears in the last twenty years, he'd be the

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Speaker 1: greatest quarterback that ever played for the Bears. So it's

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Speaker 1: one of those where it's like, yeah, I I a

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Speaker 1: little bit. The guy was won m VP in his

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Speaker 1: second year in the league. Um, no doubt, though, I'm

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Speaker 1: with you that I am. I'm off Carson Wentz though.

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Speaker 1: That's why I'm not going to defend them to my

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Speaker 1: grave anymore. I'm I'm done with Carson. Listen, if he

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Speaker 1: was on the Bears, then all of a sudden, I'd

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Speaker 1: be waving around at Carson Wentz babbo head instead of

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Speaker 1: a sid luckman. All Right, Well, I don't know that

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Speaker 1: we can put this one in the contest. I don't

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Speaker 1: know that you and I can come to me and

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Speaker 1: we disagree too much on it. I don't like it.

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Speaker 1: The other one that I think we're going to disagree on,

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Speaker 1: the Baltimore Ravens traveling to Detroit as massive road favorites,

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Speaker 1: and like this goes everything. We don't believe in is

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Speaker 1: is in this game right now. It is a massive

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Speaker 1: road favorite, getting all the bets of money against an

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Speaker 1: O and two team like how come loss of a

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Speaker 1: prime time loss and a team in the Ravens that

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Speaker 1: has a prime time win. Everything is out of whack.

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Speaker 1: Everything is out of whack. Lamar breaks the rules. The

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Speaker 1: universe is off of its access in this game. I've

356
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Speaker 1: lost too much money going against Lamar against bad teams.

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Speaker 1: I will not do it. This guy in this to

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Speaker 1: your career of just taking money from me. When I'm like, oh,

359
00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:43,760
Speaker 1: the Cincinnati Bengals are thirteen dog and against the Ravens.

360
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Speaker 1: Here gotta take the Bengals. They lose by one. I

361
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Speaker 1: can't do it anymore. I can't take these dogs against Lamar.

362
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Speaker 1: He just beats the ship out of these bad teams.

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Speaker 1: And okay, I'm I am with I'm sure you listen

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Speaker 1: to stuff. And he talked about all the injuries the

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Speaker 1: Ravens have and how they kind of got lucky against

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs. I think the lines have been lucky and

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Speaker 1: that they've had these kind of matchups where they've been

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Speaker 1: in these games. And we saw golf got affected by

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Speaker 1: the rain last week Okay, that's kind of his out

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Speaker 1: there in the second half he fell apart. It was

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Speaker 1: because of the rain. The guy couldn't grip the ball. Apparently,

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Speaker 1: um just cannot seeing a track meet the Lions keeping

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Speaker 1: up with this Ravens team. Uh so we don't have

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Speaker 1: to put it in Chad. But again, this is one

375
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Speaker 1: of these games. I will be betting the Ravens and

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Speaker 1: I I'm gonna be chalking. I'll probably have them in

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Speaker 1: a ton of teas and moneyline parladies. I just love

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Speaker 1: the Ravens to win these games. I think he's fourteen

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Speaker 1: and one against teams below five hundred in his career, Lamar,

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Speaker 1: So sign me up, chat, I love the Ravens. It's

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Speaker 1: so interesting because everything we're saying about the Jaguars, about

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Speaker 1: why we like the Jaguars in their game against the

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Speaker 1: Cardinals are apply to the Lions one on one against

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Speaker 1: the spread, So you have to throw out all your

385
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Speaker 1: own two stats. But they aren't owing two team oh

386
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Speaker 1: and two teams that are straight up since that since

387
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Speaker 1: two thousand to fifty thirty six and one against the spread.

388
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Speaker 1: It's actually pretty good. Yeah, but again, there's thirty six

389
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Speaker 1: of them that don't cover, and that's what I'm betting

390
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Speaker 1: on here. Well, I guess you make your money by

391
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Speaker 1: being a contrarian. I can't always like I can't always

392
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Speaker 1: do the sharp plays. That's the thing people don't get.

393
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Speaker 1: There's something like I took on the chin last week

394
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Speaker 1: trying to go against the Sharps, and we talked on

395
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Speaker 1: the phone, like we had the Seahawks in and I

396
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Speaker 1: was like, I think we wanted to take it out.

397
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Speaker 1: I've had too many sharps hit me up there, like

398
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Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans. So again I am I am one to

399
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Speaker 1: be humbled constantly, like I'm never too cocky or anything

400
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Speaker 1: to be like, no, this is I know what I'm

401
00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:43,720
Speaker 1: doing here. We're taking the Seahawks because one of these

402
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Speaker 1: guys now now, Like I try to listen to people

403
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Speaker 1: that are coming in with good information, so I do.

404
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Speaker 1: This is one of these few games where I do

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Speaker 1: feel like I will be with the public on um

406
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Speaker 1: and I feel comfortable with it. Like if this is

407
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Speaker 1: Week ten, I'd probably with you. I'd probably would be

408
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Speaker 1: taking the Culture. I probably would be taking the Tennessee

409
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Speaker 1: Titans here, But because it's so earlier in the season,

410
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Speaker 1: I feel more punkable taking these kind of favorites. What

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Speaker 1: calls have you gotten? So we did the podcast on Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: We go over every game. I saw you yesterday and

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Speaker 1: you said you were already getting calls from other professional

414
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Speaker 1: betters about some of the games that we had discussed.

415
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Speaker 1: What are some of the games that professional betters called

416
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Speaker 1: you about? So multiple calls were about our Washington Uh,

417
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Speaker 1: Buffalo pick I talked about I like Buffalo, I liked

418
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Speaker 1: um going against a guy making his first career starting

419
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Speaker 1: the road and Heineke and man did I get a

420
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Speaker 1: lot of calls. So they were nine maybe nine and

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Speaker 1: a half at the time we talked about it. So

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Speaker 1: these pros who called me, they've like we talked about yesterday,

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Speaker 1: and I think it was down to eight and a

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Speaker 1: half at the time that I was down to seven

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Speaker 1: on family. So the professionals have clearly they know something

426
00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:50,639
Speaker 1: here and they're making a statement, and we talked about it.

427
00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:53,440
Speaker 1: I thought Josh Allen didn't look right in that Miami game.

428
00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:54,919
Speaker 1: I thought he still didn't look as what he did

429
00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:58,520
Speaker 1: last year, where the offense just looked easy and smooth

430
00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:00,560
Speaker 1: and he really couldn't miss. And he's making great reads

431
00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:03,520
Speaker 1: this has to be a good, right game for him.

432
00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:05,680
Speaker 1: That's why I don't really get the love for Washington,

433
00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:07,520
Speaker 1: like it was Washington really gonna keep up with this

434
00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:10,399
Speaker 1: team where we saw Washington give up all those yards

435
00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:15,000
Speaker 1: to Daniel Jones. I just Josh Allen is the Daniel

436
00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:17,399
Speaker 1: Jones could only dream of being what Josh Allen is now.

437
00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:19,720
Speaker 1: Like Josh Allen is the dream. He's a big, strong

438
00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:21,879
Speaker 1: quarterback that can run and throw the ball downfield. So

439
00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:26,040
Speaker 1: for me, I understand why the pros like this game.

440
00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:28,119
Speaker 1: It's a big number against the team in Buffalo that

441
00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:31,600
Speaker 1: we talked about all year. It's just regression, regression, aggression.

442
00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:36,240
Speaker 1: But I'll take the bills here. Um, it's I'm a

443
00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:39,560
Speaker 1: little chalky this week chat. But now that's down to seven,

444
00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:41,960
Speaker 1: I'm happy taking the bills here. Well that's what I

445
00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:44,720
Speaker 1: was gonna say, Like, it's getting to a point where

446
00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:47,680
Speaker 1: you might want to take the bills because the number

447
00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:51,359
Speaker 1: has moved. It's moved so much. The one thing I

448
00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:55,040
Speaker 1: would say about this game, Ron Rivera does not have

449
00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:58,399
Speaker 1: games in which he wins or loses by eight, by

450
00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:00,679
Speaker 1: more than eight points. That's your is not a trend

451
00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:04,520
Speaker 1: in his career as a coach. And the only other

452
00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:06,520
Speaker 1: thing that I would say about this is that the

453
00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:10,160
Speaker 1: total is pretty low, like the totals, and so if

454
00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:12,520
Speaker 1: you think, like if you're gonna bet a number of

455
00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:14,440
Speaker 1: a touchdown or more, which is what this is at,

456
00:23:15,119 --> 00:23:17,040
Speaker 1: that's a big number to bet on a total that

457
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:21,480
Speaker 1: is this low. Again, it's a fad on Heinechi. That's

458
00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:23,920
Speaker 1: why I feel it's interesting how much confidence people have

459
00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:26,959
Speaker 1: back in them where it's like, I don't know, it's

460
00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:29,920
Speaker 1: a lot of unknown with this kid. Um Again, he

461
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:31,919
Speaker 1: looked great against the Buccaneers in the playoffs, the one

462
00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:34,200
Speaker 1: game he played last year, and then he looked really

463
00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:37,240
Speaker 1: good against the Giants. He's had two career starts in

464
00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:40,080
Speaker 1: both of them are at home. So it's I just

465
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:42,000
Speaker 1: can't back this kid on his first start on the road.

466
00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:46,760
Speaker 1: Let me give you one more system. Okay, are you ready?

467
00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:54,560
Speaker 1: Teams that cover by more than twenty points since two

468
00:23:54,600 --> 00:24:00,960
Speaker 1: thousand three the next week eight two one oh five

469
00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:04,320
Speaker 1: and six against the spread, So you are going against

470
00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:09,000
Speaker 1: a trend that wins at about at seven percent clip,

471
00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:11,520
Speaker 1: And we talked about that. I didn't I don't like

472
00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:14,200
Speaker 1: that they're coming off such a big win, but what

473
00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:17,800
Speaker 1: goes into that is all again, the Miami had three

474
00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:21,200
Speaker 1: zeros uh in the red zone, so they went to

475
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:22,800
Speaker 1: the reds in three different times and they didn't get

476
00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:25,440
Speaker 1: any points out of it, and two I went down

477
00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:27,680
Speaker 1: early in the first So that kind of game plan

478
00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:30,040
Speaker 1: was all thrown out because we have a team that's

479
00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:32,359
Speaker 1: all built around to the way that system is built.

480
00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:35,159
Speaker 1: They do run option or it's not meant to do

481
00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:37,080
Speaker 1: run option place. This guy is kind of a standard

482
00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:39,080
Speaker 1: the pocket kind of quarterback. He's not really a runner.

483
00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:41,720
Speaker 1: So a lot of things changed in Miami game where

484
00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:42,920
Speaker 1: it's kind of a fluke and I kind of just

485
00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:46,239
Speaker 1: throw it out again. The only negative I took from

486
00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:48,159
Speaker 1: that game is I just didn't think Josh Allen looked right.

487
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:50,400
Speaker 1: I still think he doesn't look what he did last year.

488
00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:52,160
Speaker 1: That's the only thing that's really giving me pause where

489
00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:54,080
Speaker 1: I wouldn't make this one of our five, but I'm

490
00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:56,800
Speaker 1: probably not going through just because of that. I love

491
00:24:57,119 --> 00:25:00,800
Speaker 1: I love this because it is like I'm bringing you

492
00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:05,320
Speaker 1: the broad numbers and you're telling me why they make sense,

493
00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 1: but why the elements of this situation actually play against that.

494
00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:13,280
Speaker 1: And I can't argue with you at all. Like we've

495
00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 1: already talked about, we've entered this new era of coaching

496
00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:19,920
Speaker 1: of the non c I a decision. We saw it

497
00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:23,200
Speaker 1: with Frank Reich and the Colts going forward consistently on

498
00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:26,080
Speaker 1: fourth and goal, the Dolphins going consistently for it, the

499
00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:31,280
Speaker 1: Eagles going consistently for it. Um, I can't argue with it. Yeah,

500
00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:33,040
Speaker 1: it messes with these numbers too. We had a bunch

501
00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:35,000
Speaker 1: of games last week that you should have been covering

502
00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:37,520
Speaker 1: are winning out right, and you weren't because these teams

503
00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:40,639
Speaker 1: are successful in those positions. Yeah, it's totally true. So

504
00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:44,120
Speaker 1: all right, the other game that I know, wise guys

505
00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:49,200
Speaker 1: have hit aggressively. This was your Simon says, bet it's

506
00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:52,679
Speaker 1: still on our list. Cincinnati Bengals on Tuesday. They were

507
00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:56,200
Speaker 1: at plus four and a half against the Steelers. You said,

508
00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:58,359
Speaker 1: Simon says, bet it, bet it, bet it, bet it,

509
00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:04,280
Speaker 1: bet it. Now it's plus three. Yeah, so we kind

510
00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:05,680
Speaker 1: of knew the pros are gonna coming on that, and

511
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:09,800
Speaker 1: it was more of a hedge against Roethlisberger. Um, I've

512
00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:11,960
Speaker 1: kind of read that he was he was a little

513
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:15,359
Speaker 1: banged up, and what do we have if we have

514
00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 1: a team in Pittsburgh that has a lot of injuries

515
00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:18,560
Speaker 1: and a lot of key positions. That's what we talked

516
00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:21,200
Speaker 1: about on Tuesday, and I thought this number should be three.

517
00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 1: In an divisional game, it's pretty much a coin flip

518
00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:25,560
Speaker 1: between both these teams. Both these teams at the bottom

519
00:26:25,600 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 1: of their division. We know that they're fighting. They're gonna

520
00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:29,320
Speaker 1: be both of them when we fight each other for

521
00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:32,200
Speaker 1: the last spot in this division. So four and a half.

522
00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:34,520
Speaker 1: We love the number. Three and a half. We would

523
00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:37,480
Speaker 1: still take it, but at three, I can't. I can't

524
00:26:37,520 --> 00:26:39,080
Speaker 1: make people out there ticket. If you're gonna take it,

525
00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:40,879
Speaker 1: maybe just take the money line here, because you've already

526
00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:42,280
Speaker 1: missed all the value of four and a half four

527
00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:45,439
Speaker 1: and three and a half. But for our picks, chat, uh,

528
00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:48,040
Speaker 1: if we get three and a half as our best five,

529
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:51,960
Speaker 1: we are a hucent gonna have the Bengals on. I

530
00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:56,000
Speaker 1: agree with you, But this is definitely a wait for

531
00:26:56,080 --> 00:26:59,480
Speaker 1: the number, play the number, get the hook scenario. You

532
00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:01,560
Speaker 1: want that look. It feels this is a like I

533
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:03,280
Speaker 1: had a great at a field goal game. That's what

534
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:05,640
Speaker 1: I think Pitture's gonna win by field goal. That's why

535
00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:07,200
Speaker 1: we love the hook. It just it feels you're a

536
00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:09,480
Speaker 1: good number for this game. Well, it also it speaks

537
00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:12,440
Speaker 1: to that divisional game, right like, this is going to

538
00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:14,040
Speaker 1: be a game that is tight. It is going to

539
00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:16,399
Speaker 1: be a game where it comes down to the wire.

540
00:27:16,720 --> 00:27:18,880
Speaker 1: To me, it's gonna be like that Chiefs and Chargers game,

541
00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:22,159
Speaker 1: which is why that Chiefs Chargers spread is so uh,

542
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:24,000
Speaker 1: it's so inflated, and why you want to take the

543
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:26,800
Speaker 1: Charger as well. It's like last week we talked, I said,

544
00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 1: I like the Bengals at three and a half, but

545
00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:31,240
Speaker 1: below three and a in the number three, we like

546
00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:33,920
Speaker 1: the Bears. Last week that number literally landed on three

547
00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:35,760
Speaker 1: by hook or by crook. I mean, it doesn't make

548
00:27:35,800 --> 00:27:37,600
Speaker 1: sense how it ended up at three because it was

549
00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:39,600
Speaker 1: twenty three and the fourth quarter, but it did. So

550
00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:42,359
Speaker 1: that's why we're always trying to get the best number

551
00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:44,840
Speaker 1: out here, because it is so important these early weeks here.

552
00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:48,560
Speaker 1: Half a point can make a big difference. Get the

553
00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:52,439
Speaker 1: best of the number. It's an old sports betting axiom.

554
00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:55,159
Speaker 1: They should put that sports betting axiom in the Hall

555
00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:57,120
Speaker 1: of Fame. They should put it right above the entry

556
00:27:57,359 --> 00:27:59,320
Speaker 1: and everyone should have to slap it when they walk in.

557
00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:06,879
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00:29:57,480 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 1: get back to the show, all right, This is the

593
00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:01,720
Speaker 1: game that we got to talk abou the Miami Dolphins

594
00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:05,520
Speaker 1: with Jacobe Prisette going to the Las Vegas Raiders Oh

595
00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:10,200
Speaker 1: my god, dude, pro Joe Taylor made Miami. The line

596
00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:13,600
Speaker 1: is getting bigger. We are all over this game. Nothing

597
00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:15,840
Speaker 1: has changed for us. The only thing that's changed is

598
00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:19,200
Speaker 1: that like we like this game. We like this game

599
00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:22,440
Speaker 1: even more. Yeah, it's classic. We we bet this game,

600
00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:25,200
Speaker 1: then we take a shower afterwards. It's disgusting. It's the

601
00:30:25,280 --> 00:30:29,480
Speaker 1: grossest bet. So we Chad wanted some sharp bets. This

602
00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:31,360
Speaker 1: is This is one of our sharp five. This is

603
00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:35,080
Speaker 1: like one of my There's a lot of different reasons

604
00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:38,240
Speaker 1: to take this number, but the biggest one is Oakland

605
00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:41,120
Speaker 1: is everyone's fan favorite. Now, I mean, who the hell

606
00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:43,720
Speaker 1: is talking about Derek Carr for m v P? Now? Everyone?

607
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:46,479
Speaker 1: What the what? What world are we living in? Uh?

608
00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:49,120
Speaker 1: It seems weird again. I don't want to hate on

609
00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:51,240
Speaker 1: Derek car too much. We talked about I like Derek

610
00:30:51,280 --> 00:30:53,160
Speaker 1: Carr coming to the year. I thought this guy could

611
00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:56,320
Speaker 1: lead the league in a passing. But two weeks he's

612
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:58,760
Speaker 1: people's m v P. Now is the time we fade

613
00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:00,920
Speaker 1: Derek Carr. So yes, give me the four and a half,

614
00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:03,520
Speaker 1: give me the four. Publics coming in so heavy on

615
00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:05,880
Speaker 1: the Raiders Las Vegas Raiders an hour, I think are

616
00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:10,239
Speaker 1: getting the bet, so we're we're we're happy in our

617
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:12,960
Speaker 1: position right now taking the four and a half. What's

618
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:20,720
Speaker 1: interesting is the yeah, it's of the bets on the

619
00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:26,080
Speaker 1: Las Vegas Raiders with Derek Carr, a quarterback who Simon

620
00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:29,200
Speaker 1: Hunter said before the season began, Uh, he loved and

621
00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:31,800
Speaker 1: thought was a very good quarterback. Um, it turns out

622
00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:35,200
Speaker 1: he's spot on and only about fifty of the money.

623
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:39,000
Speaker 1: It's evenly split. So that tells you that, um, that

624
00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:42,520
Speaker 1: the wise guys are coming in strong on the Dolphins.

625
00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:46,520
Speaker 1: Let me give and in the Derek Carr stuff, we

626
00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:48,840
Speaker 1: we don't know how serious this injury is to Derek Carr.

627
00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 1: That's that's what's making me like betting this so much.

628
00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:52,720
Speaker 1: The same thing is we haven't talked about yet with

629
00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:55,760
Speaker 1: the Bears. I don't think there'd been as serious as

630
00:31:55,960 --> 00:31:58,280
Speaker 1: telling us what's going on Baker and his injury. Okay,

631
00:31:58,400 --> 00:32:00,840
Speaker 1: like I literally didn't throw the ball after you supposedly

632
00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:03,840
Speaker 1: popped his shoulder and popped it back in. So it's

633
00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:06,360
Speaker 1: a lot of Bears, a lot of questions here are

634
00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:09,000
Speaker 1: these quarterbacks coming into Week three? But this is in

635
00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:13,160
Speaker 1: every scenario, right, the Raiders are overvalued coming off of

636
00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:17,480
Speaker 1: huge upsets in games that were very high profile and

637
00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:21,160
Speaker 1: very very dramatic the Fins with a backup quarterback, and

638
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:25,080
Speaker 1: in reality from a power rating perspective, from a handicapping perspective,

639
00:32:25,360 --> 00:32:29,000
Speaker 1: how much would you drop the Dolphins which Kobe Brissette

640
00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:31,680
Speaker 1: playing against instead of to a I did only move

641
00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:33,360
Speaker 1: at a half a point, But it's because of sample

642
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:35,320
Speaker 1: to it to it just hasn't played enough games for

643
00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:36,880
Speaker 1: me to really have a hot such a high grade

644
00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:40,400
Speaker 1: on them. Where Brisset, again, he's not one of the

645
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:43,120
Speaker 1: thirty two best quarterbacks, but he's a good backup to half.

646
00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:45,320
Speaker 1: The guy has arm strength you smeared with the ball.

647
00:32:45,640 --> 00:32:47,560
Speaker 1: We're gonna see a much different team this week when

648
00:32:47,560 --> 00:32:49,120
Speaker 1: he has a whole week to practice and they could

649
00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:51,800
Speaker 1: kind of scheme the offense around Brisset and having the

650
00:32:51,800 --> 00:32:53,920
Speaker 1: whole offense puilt around to a last week where he

651
00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:56,000
Speaker 1: just came in off the bench and tried to make

652
00:32:56,040 --> 00:33:00,040
Speaker 1: it work. So again, we're getting such an undervalue a

653
00:33:00,160 --> 00:33:02,480
Speaker 1: team here in Miami. Um, it's hard not to take

654
00:33:02,520 --> 00:33:06,240
Speaker 1: this number. We love the Miami Dolphins here, just love them.

655
00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:08,800
Speaker 1: That'd be our ugliest dog, right like, we don't if

656
00:33:08,800 --> 00:33:10,479
Speaker 1: it's either them or the Jacks, we gotta pick one

657
00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:12,840
Speaker 1: of them to put in. I feel more comforable in Miami.

658
00:33:13,240 --> 00:33:16,960
Speaker 1: I do too. We haven't hornets nested any game, and

659
00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:21,640
Speaker 1: I have a feeling this could be it the Rams

660
00:33:22,360 --> 00:33:26,000
Speaker 1: and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Scared. I'm starting to get scared. Chad,

661
00:33:26,080 --> 00:33:29,320
Speaker 1: help me. I'm scared. Tell me why right now that

662
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:33,240
Speaker 1: the Buccaneers are one point favorites, the number is flipped.

663
00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:37,840
Speaker 1: They were one point dogs of the bets on Tampa,

664
00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:42,440
Speaker 1: of the money on Tampa, so a lot less money

665
00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:44,880
Speaker 1: than bets on Tampa. What are you afraid of? Are

666
00:33:44,920 --> 00:33:47,080
Speaker 1: you afraid that, like our initial handicap at the Rams

667
00:33:47,120 --> 00:33:49,920
Speaker 1: on the right side isn't the right side. I'm just

668
00:33:50,000 --> 00:33:51,960
Speaker 1: scared that I've like bet too much money already on

669
00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:54,200
Speaker 1: the Rams. And it's like, oh my god, why am

670
00:33:54,240 --> 00:33:56,640
Speaker 1: I going against Tom Brady like this? What am I doing? Like?

671
00:33:56,720 --> 00:34:00,040
Speaker 1: Can't I just avoid this game? Um? Everything points to

672
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:02,640
Speaker 1: the Rams like we talked about on Tuesday. But this

673
00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:05,200
Speaker 1: is just the classic where I'm like overthinking it too much,

674
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:07,640
Speaker 1: where it's like, Okay, the Rams, who they beat? They

675
00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:09,920
Speaker 1: beat the Bears with Andy Dalton and then they beat

676
00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:13,040
Speaker 1: like you headed on Carson Wentz and the Colts. It's

677
00:34:13,040 --> 00:34:14,920
Speaker 1: a little nerve racking, but at the same time, I

678
00:34:15,239 --> 00:34:17,040
Speaker 1: have to trust my system and trust these numbers. And

679
00:34:17,120 --> 00:34:18,759
Speaker 1: it's like, Okay, the Rams are up the plus two

680
00:34:18,800 --> 00:34:21,160
Speaker 1: plus two and a half. If they get to three,

681
00:34:21,680 --> 00:34:23,840
Speaker 1: I'm gonna have way too much money bet on this

682
00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:27,600
Speaker 1: Rams team as a home dog. The Buccaneers are just

683
00:34:27,680 --> 00:34:31,279
Speaker 1: so incredibly overvalued. Aaron Donald. If you can get one

684
00:34:31,400 --> 00:34:34,160
Speaker 1: shot on Brady, that might be all she wrote for

685
00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:37,239
Speaker 1: the Buccaneers this season. I mean, this guy, this is

686
00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:39,759
Speaker 1: this is the exact reason you take the Rams um.

687
00:34:41,160 --> 00:34:43,279
Speaker 1: I know that the Henderson injury is a big deal

688
00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:44,640
Speaker 1: for them at running back, but they also still have

689
00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:47,960
Speaker 1: Sonny Michelle there. I can't make us put it as

690
00:34:47,960 --> 00:34:49,319
Speaker 1: one of our one of our five. So it's it's

691
00:34:49,360 --> 00:34:52,000
Speaker 1: gonna be up to you on Sunday. But yes, people,

692
00:34:52,080 --> 00:34:53,960
Speaker 1: I will be back in the Rams. I know McVeigh.

693
00:34:54,239 --> 00:34:55,640
Speaker 1: Someone told me he's like oh and three as a

694
00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:58,520
Speaker 1: home dog. I don't care. Okay, that's too small of

695
00:34:58,560 --> 00:35:00,719
Speaker 1: a sample. I'm in on the Fay. I'm in on

696
00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:02,840
Speaker 1: this team, and I really like him in this position

697
00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:05,880
Speaker 1: as a home Dog. We are in the hornets nest, folks,

698
00:35:06,239 --> 00:35:08,359
Speaker 1: I'm walking to a fucking hornets nest. All right, I'll

699
00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:22,399
Speaker 1: be my companion on Honns walking into a hornets nest

700
00:35:22,600 --> 00:35:25,080
Speaker 1: because I feel like everything you're saying is true. The

701
00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:26,320
Speaker 1: one thing I need you to tell me is what

702
00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:29,000
Speaker 1: do you have this power? Rated dot? I headed a

703
00:35:29,080 --> 00:35:30,800
Speaker 1: minus one of the rams, so when I opened I

704
00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:32,600
Speaker 1: think they might have been minus one or minus two.

705
00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:36,120
Speaker 1: I thought, okay, that's a fair fair number. Um, when

706
00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:38,279
Speaker 1: we talked about we like Brady as a dog, I mean,

707
00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:40,480
Speaker 1: he's great against the spread as a dog. But now

708
00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:43,320
Speaker 1: that shifted, maybe it's gonna end up shifting five points.

709
00:35:44,960 --> 00:35:48,600
Speaker 1: That's that's that's a big, big, big movement. So it

710
00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:50,920
Speaker 1: might not always work out first riding with the books here,

711
00:35:51,000 --> 00:35:53,160
Speaker 1: but this is one of these positions I feel corporable

712
00:35:53,440 --> 00:35:56,279
Speaker 1: back in with the books and taking this home dog. Um.

713
00:35:57,680 --> 00:36:01,040
Speaker 1: Oh goodness, oh goodness. All right, So right now, the

714
00:36:01,120 --> 00:36:04,200
Speaker 1: way I'm looking at it, we definitely have the Chargers

715
00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:08,120
Speaker 1: as one of our five. We definitely have the Dolphins

716
00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:12,640
Speaker 1: as one of our five. Ah, I'm as much as

717
00:36:12,680 --> 00:36:16,279
Speaker 1: that scares me to bet against Tom Brady, I kind

718
00:36:16,320 --> 00:36:19,279
Speaker 1: of agree with you on this game. Uh, I do

719
00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:22,400
Speaker 1: like the Rams here. I'm still you're you're convincing me.

720
00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:25,920
Speaker 1: It's a it's a it's a good scheme. I mean

721
00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:28,280
Speaker 1: they beat the Bucks last year too. With golf people

722
00:36:28,400 --> 00:36:32,080
Speaker 1: people forget that little detail. Um, but we can. We're

723
00:36:32,080 --> 00:36:34,040
Speaker 1: gonna talk about it. This is it feels like we're

724
00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:35,719
Speaker 1: gonna have to take this one here, the Rams. We're

725
00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:38,839
Speaker 1: gonna have to take Minnesota Vikings again Seattle, like we're

726
00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:40,680
Speaker 1: gonna have to take one of these home dogs where

727
00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:43,360
Speaker 1: we we like these teams and the situation is just

728
00:36:43,640 --> 00:36:46,359
Speaker 1: right for them to be in. So I'm gonna leave

729
00:36:46,400 --> 00:36:48,279
Speaker 1: that up to you on Sunday. But right now, Chat,

730
00:36:48,280 --> 00:36:50,000
Speaker 1: I'm sorry I have to do it to you. You're

731
00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:51,960
Speaker 1: gonna have to pick between one of these home dogs here,

732
00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:55,320
Speaker 1: between the Vikings in Seattle or the Rams versus the Buccaneers.

733
00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:58,880
Speaker 1: I do want to challenge you on the Vikings for

734
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:00,839
Speaker 1: a second. And that's the next game on our list

735
00:37:00,920 --> 00:37:03,400
Speaker 1: that we had talked about and pegged the Vikings as

736
00:37:03,480 --> 00:37:08,359
Speaker 1: short home dogs. Is it possible that this team isn't

737
00:37:08,480 --> 00:37:13,680
Speaker 1: very good and that um, we're making a mistake and

738
00:37:14,000 --> 00:37:20,360
Speaker 1: overvaluing the situation they're in and the coaching ability of

739
00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:24,600
Speaker 1: Mike Zimmer. They're not good. We took their under first

740
00:37:24,600 --> 00:37:26,319
Speaker 1: season win tools. We were one of the few people

741
00:37:26,360 --> 00:37:28,520
Speaker 1: that were banging the drum to take this team's under,

742
00:37:28,719 --> 00:37:30,480
Speaker 1: and I talked about how I didn't have them coming

743
00:37:30,480 --> 00:37:32,480
Speaker 1: in second in the North where everyone else has betting

744
00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:34,359
Speaker 1: them to come in second. We end up talking about

745
00:37:34,360 --> 00:37:37,320
Speaker 1: how we like the Bears better than the Vikings. But no,

746
00:37:37,520 --> 00:37:40,319
Speaker 1: this is situational. We have a team that's just played

747
00:37:40,360 --> 00:37:42,560
Speaker 1: back to back road games. Now they're coming home, and

748
00:37:43,320 --> 00:37:45,919
Speaker 1: we've seen it. The Vikings always play better at homes.

749
00:37:46,000 --> 00:37:48,600
Speaker 1: Zimmer in his career is above sixty against the spread

750
00:37:48,680 --> 00:37:51,680
Speaker 1: at home, I believe. So we have to chat. This

751
00:37:51,840 --> 00:37:57,000
Speaker 1: is just you take a team that you know what

752
00:37:57,120 --> 00:37:59,240
Speaker 1: what you said is true. This could be an absolutely

753
00:37:59,280 --> 00:38:01,560
Speaker 1: dumpster fire, like after they missed that field goal. And

754
00:38:01,640 --> 00:38:03,799
Speaker 1: we know that Zimmer and Kirk Cousins are button heads

755
00:38:03,840 --> 00:38:07,279
Speaker 1: about the whole vaccine and everything like that. But it's

756
00:38:07,320 --> 00:38:09,360
Speaker 1: getting up to two now two and a half. If

757
00:38:09,440 --> 00:38:12,439
Speaker 1: this lands at three once again, there's there's no there's

758
00:38:12,480 --> 00:38:14,239
Speaker 1: no world. I don't bet on the Vikings is a

759
00:38:14,280 --> 00:38:16,920
Speaker 1: plus three home dog to the Seattle team that just

760
00:38:17,160 --> 00:38:20,080
Speaker 1: got ran on, I mean absolutely ran on by the

761
00:38:20,120 --> 00:38:23,120
Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans in the second half. And the blocking scheme

762
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:25,600
Speaker 1: is way better with the Vikings, and they ha Dalvin Cook,

763
00:38:25,600 --> 00:38:27,560
Speaker 1: who's just as good as running back is Derrick Henry.

764
00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:31,560
Speaker 1: So it's just those things all point to taking Minnesota

765
00:38:31,600 --> 00:38:39,680
Speaker 1: here in this game. We love the Minnesota Vikings, and

766
00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:42,160
Speaker 1: I feel like it might burn us. I honestly feel

767
00:38:42,200 --> 00:38:45,400
Speaker 1: like I'd almost rather bet on the Rams on Sunday

768
00:38:45,880 --> 00:38:48,160
Speaker 1: than on the Vikings. I can't fault you for it.

769
00:38:48,200 --> 00:38:50,160
Speaker 1: I hate betting on Kirk Cousins too. That was when

770
00:38:50,200 --> 00:38:52,080
Speaker 1: I lost that money line. I didn't blame the kicker.

771
00:38:52,080 --> 00:38:54,400
Speaker 1: I'd blame Kirk Cousins for just being fucking terrible. So

772
00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:57,040
Speaker 1: will you have Well, you know, last week we talked

773
00:38:57,040 --> 00:38:59,239
Speaker 1: a lot about this ended up the Ravens where your

774
00:38:59,239 --> 00:39:01,320
Speaker 1: biggest bet of the week. Do you think the Rams

775
00:39:01,320 --> 00:39:02,919
Speaker 1: will end up being your biggest bet of the week.

776
00:39:03,560 --> 00:39:06,080
Speaker 1: No chance, just because it's Brady Like. If it was

777
00:39:06,120 --> 00:39:08,239
Speaker 1: anyone other if it was any other quarterback, it would be.

778
00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:10,600
Speaker 1: But like I have it, and when I have a

779
00:39:10,640 --> 00:39:12,440
Speaker 1: notebook with a bunch of ferent notes and one of

780
00:39:12,480 --> 00:39:15,000
Speaker 1: the biggest things I have circled for my early days.

781
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:17,960
Speaker 1: Don't fucking bet a lot of money against Brady, and

782
00:39:18,760 --> 00:39:20,319
Speaker 1: that has saved me a lot of money in my life.

783
00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:21,920
Speaker 1: Chat I'll never forget. In the Super Bowl, I was

784
00:39:21,920 --> 00:39:24,400
Speaker 1: gonna bet pretty big on the Rams, and I was

785
00:39:24,480 --> 00:39:26,239
Speaker 1: just going through my old notebook. I opened that up

786
00:39:26,280 --> 00:39:29,320
Speaker 1: and it's said in big letters, don't fucking bet against

787
00:39:29,400 --> 00:39:31,319
Speaker 1: don't bet big money against Tom Brady. So I said,

788
00:39:31,320 --> 00:39:33,360
Speaker 1: fuck it. I'll take newing them Patriots against the Rams.

789
00:39:33,680 --> 00:39:37,400
Speaker 1: They dominated them. So it's it sounds stupid, it sounds simple,

790
00:39:37,480 --> 00:39:42,960
Speaker 1: but I'm I'm happy being the last one to fade Brady. Um,

791
00:39:43,080 --> 00:39:44,719
Speaker 1: It's worked out for me his career. This guy every

792
00:39:44,760 --> 00:39:47,360
Speaker 1: year just keeps coming back. So I'll be patient with that,

793
00:39:47,920 --> 00:39:53,399
Speaker 1: except this weekend when we bet on the Rams. In fact. Um,

794
00:39:53,960 --> 00:39:57,120
Speaker 1: all right, here's another one of my challenges. You said

795
00:39:57,200 --> 00:39:59,680
Speaker 1: on Tuesday, the Niners. Where are big balls better? The

796
00:39:59,760 --> 00:40:03,560
Speaker 1: week minus three and a half? Every trend says, go

797
00:40:03,719 --> 00:40:06,200
Speaker 1: get the Packers. Yeah, everyone's gonna hate it too. Everyone's

798
00:40:06,200 --> 00:40:08,480
Speaker 1: gonna be talking about the cornerbacks of the forty Niners.

799
00:40:08,600 --> 00:40:10,239
Speaker 1: How Rodger's gonna be able to have a field day

800
00:40:10,280 --> 00:40:13,600
Speaker 1: with it. Got unlucky with the Eagles. I told you

801
00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:15,319
Speaker 1: they did. The Eagle should have won that game. That's

802
00:40:15,320 --> 00:40:17,200
Speaker 1: why I like the four Niners in this game. This

803
00:40:17,360 --> 00:40:20,640
Speaker 1: is a a team that they had a bad week

804
00:40:20,760 --> 00:40:22,560
Speaker 1: last week. They still got the win, which is something

805
00:40:22,640 --> 00:40:25,480
Speaker 1: great teams do. Now they're playing a team that is

806
00:40:25,719 --> 00:40:29,959
Speaker 1: incredibly overvalued because they had a big win in prime time. Chad.

807
00:40:30,080 --> 00:40:33,320
Speaker 1: Their defense, I'm telling you in green Bay has major issues, Buddy,

808
00:40:33,520 --> 00:40:36,800
Speaker 1: major issues. And the supporting Niners team still has a

809
00:40:36,880 --> 00:40:39,120
Speaker 1: great front. And we've seen it with the old line

810
00:40:39,200 --> 00:40:42,879
Speaker 1: of green Bay. Their old lines banged up so too

811
00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:44,960
Speaker 1: many too many times, people instead of looking at the

812
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:47,480
Speaker 1: interior line and different things like that, they just go

813
00:40:47,719 --> 00:40:50,600
Speaker 1: right to, Oh they have Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams playing

814
00:40:50,600 --> 00:40:53,200
Speaker 1: against a really banged up secondary. Just take green Blay

815
00:40:53,280 --> 00:40:55,160
Speaker 1: plus three plus three and a half. You're gonna cover this.

816
00:40:55,280 --> 00:40:57,680
Speaker 1: Every time. It's literally giving me deja vu. I remember

817
00:40:57,760 --> 00:40:59,719
Speaker 1: the same exack situation. I think it was two years ago.

818
00:41:00,160 --> 00:41:02,120
Speaker 1: Green Bay went to the fourty Niners. I think they

819
00:41:02,239 --> 00:41:06,480
Speaker 1: lost by thirty. So it's it's just a numbers game

820
00:41:06,520 --> 00:41:08,880
Speaker 1: where it's a primetime game. I know everyone in the

821
00:41:08,880 --> 00:41:10,960
Speaker 1: world's gonna have a money line, parlay or whatever tied

822
00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:13,000
Speaker 1: to Green Bay on the money line, get a good

823
00:41:13,040 --> 00:41:15,759
Speaker 1: plus number. I have to fade them at this number.

824
00:41:15,800 --> 00:41:17,680
Speaker 1: It's just gonna be too much public on a public

825
00:41:17,760 --> 00:41:19,719
Speaker 1: dog for me to pack them where. I just like

826
00:41:19,800 --> 00:41:22,360
Speaker 1: the number of the four Niners. I want you to

827
00:41:22,440 --> 00:41:26,320
Speaker 1: promise that the Niners will be part of your picks

828
00:41:26,920 --> 00:41:29,839
Speaker 1: for convince me on Sunday because I know how much

829
00:41:29,920 --> 00:41:34,040
Speaker 1: Raybon loves the Packers. Here. No, I did a primetime

830
00:41:34,080 --> 00:41:35,880
Speaker 1: game last week. Wasn't that that was my gift to

831
00:41:36,040 --> 00:41:39,400
Speaker 1: convince me? I did that? I love I want you

832
00:41:39,520 --> 00:41:42,239
Speaker 1: and Raybon going after each other because because here's the

833
00:41:42,280 --> 00:41:44,759
Speaker 1: other thing I'm putting. I'm putting the Packers on our list.

834
00:41:44,840 --> 00:41:49,000
Speaker 1: We're gonna have a conversation about Diners or Packers the Niners. Um.

835
00:41:49,920 --> 00:41:53,560
Speaker 1: But I love that you and Raybon are so opposed

836
00:41:53,560 --> 00:41:56,200
Speaker 1: to each other on this pick. Um. I want to

837
00:41:56,280 --> 00:42:00,839
Speaker 1: mention three other games. Okay, yeah, two other games. I'm

838
00:42:00,880 --> 00:42:04,560
Speaker 1: sorry to other games. I'm sick to my stomach saying

839
00:42:04,640 --> 00:42:09,080
Speaker 1: this out loud. Atlanta Falcons plus three against the Giants

840
00:42:09,160 --> 00:42:12,720
Speaker 1: at home in New Jersey because you're owing two trends

841
00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:18,000
Speaker 1: because the Giants are fucking terrible now they are. I

842
00:42:18,120 --> 00:42:20,640
Speaker 1: told you I I liked I like the Atlanta three

843
00:42:20,640 --> 00:42:22,080
Speaker 1: and a half. I thought that was the number. That's

844
00:42:22,080 --> 00:42:24,960
Speaker 1: the only reason I'm off Atlanta. It's okay, this game

845
00:42:25,120 --> 00:42:28,800
Speaker 1: is three. So I just think, you know, if you

846
00:42:28,880 --> 00:42:30,520
Speaker 1: took Atlanta three and a half and they get blown out,

847
00:42:30,520 --> 00:42:32,080
Speaker 1: I wouldn't be upset with myself because you've got the

848
00:42:32,120 --> 00:42:34,719
Speaker 1: best of the number with Atlanta. But me personally, I'm

849
00:42:34,800 --> 00:42:36,600
Speaker 1: I'll take I'll take the Giants when they get down

850
00:42:36,600 --> 00:42:39,560
Speaker 1: to two and a half, all right, that's fair. I

851
00:42:39,680 --> 00:42:42,960
Speaker 1: can be, I can be dissuaded. Otherwise, that's a good trend.

852
00:42:43,000 --> 00:42:45,080
Speaker 1: Their own two against the spread and their own two

853
00:42:45,560 --> 00:42:48,160
Speaker 1: straight up. So that's why I get why you like Atlanta, right.

854
00:42:48,239 --> 00:42:50,920
Speaker 1: And also, Daniel Jones is terrible at home and he's

855
00:42:50,960 --> 00:42:52,600
Speaker 1: good on the road, and so the game the line

856
00:42:52,600 --> 00:42:54,719
Speaker 1: always gets inflated when he goes back home and plays

857
00:42:54,760 --> 00:42:57,319
Speaker 1: well on the road, and so that's really it. I'm

858
00:42:57,360 --> 00:42:59,680
Speaker 1: looking at it situationally. But you will never have to

859
00:42:59,719 --> 00:43:03,480
Speaker 1: con into me to not bet on the Falcons last game,

860
00:43:03,520 --> 00:43:07,080
Speaker 1: because because he's one of the things fans. I can't.

861
00:43:07,160 --> 00:43:09,640
Speaker 1: I can't do it to him again. No, now you

862
00:43:09,719 --> 00:43:11,919
Speaker 1: actually made me. You actually said to me last week

863
00:43:12,600 --> 00:43:14,520
Speaker 1: if the Falcons don't cover his twelve and a half

864
00:43:14,560 --> 00:43:17,399
Speaker 1: point dogs, we will never have to bet the Falcons again.

865
00:43:17,760 --> 00:43:19,840
Speaker 1: That's true because I just felt terrible making people do

866
00:43:19,880 --> 00:43:21,839
Speaker 1: because I felt that confident in the Atlanta plus twelve

867
00:43:21,840 --> 00:43:23,040
Speaker 1: and a half. And look how what that got me?

868
00:43:23,520 --> 00:43:29,200
Speaker 1: What if I threw out at you the Eagles h plus?

869
00:43:29,440 --> 00:43:31,120
Speaker 1: What are they plus three and a half right now?

870
00:43:32,640 --> 00:43:37,160
Speaker 1: Four plus four against the Cowboys? I love the Eagles

871
00:43:37,200 --> 00:43:38,480
Speaker 1: in that spot. And I know we don't like to

872
00:43:38,520 --> 00:43:40,400
Speaker 1: do Monday in a football games, but I will tell

873
00:43:40,440 --> 00:43:44,320
Speaker 1: you this. According to the Action Network pro projections, the

874
00:43:44,440 --> 00:43:48,520
Speaker 1: biggest edges between our projections and the spread this week

875
00:43:49,000 --> 00:43:52,560
Speaker 1: are the Eagles, the Falcons, and the Packers. I can

876
00:43:52,600 --> 00:43:55,279
Speaker 1: beat with you on the Niners over the Packers and

877
00:43:55,680 --> 00:43:59,239
Speaker 1: avoiding the Giants and the Falcons. But I still love

878
00:43:59,320 --> 00:44:01,919
Speaker 1: this Eagles team. Yeah, we love the summer. That again.

879
00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:03,560
Speaker 1: We talked about the four ye nineers. They they kind

880
00:44:03,560 --> 00:44:05,520
Speaker 1: of stolen last week, where every little thing that could

881
00:44:05,520 --> 00:44:07,520
Speaker 1: have gone wrong for the egos pretty much did. And

882
00:44:07,719 --> 00:44:11,080
Speaker 1: that's typical in the NFL. It just does not bounce

883
00:44:11,120 --> 00:44:13,399
Speaker 1: your way every time. And we talked about this line

884
00:44:13,480 --> 00:44:16,440
Speaker 1: is inflated. It's all up to four. Dallas should have

885
00:44:16,520 --> 00:44:18,560
Speaker 1: lost last week to the Chargers kind of they kind

886
00:44:18,600 --> 00:44:20,920
Speaker 1: of stole one there. Now we've an Eagles team that

887
00:44:21,080 --> 00:44:23,359
Speaker 1: really let down better. So I mean, if you had

888
00:44:23,440 --> 00:44:24,839
Speaker 1: the three and a half ticket year, sick to your

889
00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:27,040
Speaker 1: stomach when all those times they didn't score in the

890
00:44:27,120 --> 00:44:30,160
Speaker 1: red zone. So everything you just said it so true. Chat.

891
00:44:30,200 --> 00:44:32,879
Speaker 1: We we take the value in this job and home,

892
00:44:33,120 --> 00:44:35,160
Speaker 1: I mean a road divisional team in the Egos plus

893
00:44:35,200 --> 00:44:38,160
Speaker 1: four where they played better in Dallas statistically they have

894
00:44:38,280 --> 00:44:40,320
Speaker 1: more wins and Dallas they do at home against the Cowboys.

895
00:44:41,160 --> 00:44:43,000
Speaker 1: We we take. We take the Egos plus four year.

896
00:44:43,040 --> 00:44:47,400
Speaker 1: Every time I feel like a money line around Robin

897
00:44:47,560 --> 00:44:56,399
Speaker 1: parlay of Chargers Dolphins, Chargers, Eagles, Dolphins Eagles. That could

898
00:44:56,440 --> 00:44:59,560
Speaker 1: be fun. That's fun, and it's so gross, but that

899
00:44:59,680 --> 00:45:02,560
Speaker 1: is on It's good, right, all right? But I know

900
00:45:02,680 --> 00:45:04,080
Speaker 1: we want to I know that at some point we're

901
00:45:04,120 --> 00:45:05,640
Speaker 1: gonna want to get to survivor and we're gonna do

902
00:45:05,719 --> 00:45:07,879
Speaker 1: that in a second. We like the Chargers a lot.

903
00:45:08,280 --> 00:45:10,560
Speaker 1: We like Miami a lot. I feel like we just

904
00:45:10,719 --> 00:45:13,279
Speaker 1: decided to throw the Eagles in there too. Now. We talked,

905
00:45:13,400 --> 00:45:15,319
Speaker 1: we talked, we said, we talked that we liked them.

906
00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:17,120
Speaker 1: On Tuesday. We just said we don't do Monday games.

907
00:45:17,200 --> 00:45:18,880
Speaker 1: But I think we have to suspend that rule. We

908
00:45:18,960 --> 00:45:20,839
Speaker 1: have to get out of our comfort zone right now,

909
00:45:21,360 --> 00:45:23,520
Speaker 1: our favorite five. We're only four and six and we've

910
00:45:23,520 --> 00:45:25,520
Speaker 1: got some bad beats in there. I think we need

911
00:45:25,600 --> 00:45:28,000
Speaker 1: to have as many games as possible to choose from.

912
00:45:28,360 --> 00:45:29,920
Speaker 1: If we like this number, we gotta go for it.

913
00:45:30,080 --> 00:45:31,560
Speaker 1: And if it means I have to stay up a

914
00:45:31,560 --> 00:45:34,080
Speaker 1: little bit later on Monday night, I'll just deal, all right,

915
00:45:34,120 --> 00:45:38,000
Speaker 1: my man. So, Chargers, Miami and Eagles, Oh my god,

916
00:45:38,080 --> 00:45:41,239
Speaker 1: we're walking down a very ugly road. I love that

917
00:45:41,320 --> 00:45:43,160
Speaker 1: those are three road teams. That's so unlike us. We

918
00:45:43,239 --> 00:45:47,120
Speaker 1: usually always take home teams three road dogs. Right now,

919
00:45:47,760 --> 00:45:50,280
Speaker 1: even though every fiber of my being says the Packers,

920
00:45:50,640 --> 00:45:53,160
Speaker 1: I think the Niners are coming into pole position here.

921
00:45:53,600 --> 00:45:55,880
Speaker 1: So it's really going to come down to the Niners,

922
00:45:56,160 --> 00:45:59,000
Speaker 1: Rams and Vikings unless the Bengals go back to three

923
00:45:59,040 --> 00:46:02,160
Speaker 1: and a half. So we will update everybody Sunday morning.

924
00:46:02,520 --> 00:46:05,000
Speaker 1: Simon and I will decide what the final five are.

925
00:46:05,280 --> 00:46:07,399
Speaker 1: We definitely like the Chargers plus six and a half,

926
00:46:07,480 --> 00:46:10,160
Speaker 1: Miami plus about four or four and a half, the

927
00:46:10,239 --> 00:46:14,920
Speaker 1: Eagles plus four, and then we will decide between the Rams, Vikings, Niners,

928
00:46:14,960 --> 00:46:25,240
Speaker 1: and Bengals. On Sunday, Mondyline Parlay. For those listening, Chargers, Miami, Chargers, Eagles, Eagles, Miami,

929
00:46:25,640 --> 00:46:28,319
Speaker 1: guess what it's time for. It's time for our Survivor pick,

930
00:46:28,800 --> 00:46:40,200
Speaker 1: the Survivor Pool pick of the week. What do we say? Chat?

931
00:46:40,360 --> 00:46:43,880
Speaker 1: Chat chat? What are we gonna do here? People keep

932
00:46:43,920 --> 00:46:46,239
Speaker 1: hitting me up saying, how are you guys not taking Carolina?

933
00:46:46,719 --> 00:46:48,560
Speaker 1: This is by far the easiest game they have left

934
00:46:48,600 --> 00:46:51,920
Speaker 1: on their schedule, So I want to even like I know,

935
00:46:52,040 --> 00:46:55,240
Speaker 1: we don't, we won't. Um. I wouldn't hate putting Caroline

936
00:46:55,239 --> 00:46:58,239
Speaker 1: in our contest because the more film I watched on

937
00:46:58,280 --> 00:47:01,040
Speaker 1: this Carolina team and the way they play the run defense.

938
00:47:01,520 --> 00:47:03,799
Speaker 1: They literally shut down the Saints, who have a top

939
00:47:03,840 --> 00:47:06,680
Speaker 1: three offensive line and they have Alvin Kramar that that's

940
00:47:06,760 --> 00:47:08,440
Speaker 1: seriously one of the best run games in all football,

941
00:47:08,440 --> 00:47:10,640
Speaker 1: and the Carolina completely shut it down last week. Now

942
00:47:10,680 --> 00:47:13,480
Speaker 1: we have the same Carolina defense playing against Houston that

943
00:47:13,640 --> 00:47:16,200
Speaker 1: that's their identity. They want to run the ball. Okay,

944
00:47:16,400 --> 00:47:18,239
Speaker 1: that's how they set up all their plays through the

945
00:47:18,280 --> 00:47:21,360
Speaker 1: pistol or whatever they're doing, they run it. This is

946
00:47:21,640 --> 00:47:23,880
Speaker 1: a nightmare matchup for this Houston team just because they

947
00:47:23,920 --> 00:47:26,719
Speaker 1: are playing at rookie quarterback against a team that wants

948
00:47:26,719 --> 00:47:28,440
Speaker 1: to take away the run game, which is what they

949
00:47:28,480 --> 00:47:31,960
Speaker 1: want to rely on. So I'm having nightmares because I'm like,

950
00:47:32,680 --> 00:47:34,560
Speaker 1: in what world do we bet on Sam Donald on

951
00:47:34,680 --> 00:47:37,120
Speaker 1: Thursday night as an eight point favorite? But if we

952
00:47:37,200 --> 00:47:39,560
Speaker 1: can't bet on him on the spread chat, we might

953
00:47:39,560 --> 00:47:41,680
Speaker 1: have taken the survivor. All we needed them is do

954
00:47:41,800 --> 00:47:44,640
Speaker 1: is try to win, just win. It's hard because it's

955
00:47:44,680 --> 00:47:46,719
Speaker 1: again we talked to me like Denver because they're playing

956
00:47:46,719 --> 00:47:48,680
Speaker 1: against the Jets at home, which makes me feel way

957
00:47:48,719 --> 00:47:51,440
Speaker 1: more comfortable. But we might be take Denver again later on,

958
00:47:51,600 --> 00:47:53,920
Speaker 1: where I just don't see where we can take Carolina

959
00:47:53,920 --> 00:47:56,600
Speaker 1: again again. We could wait and maybe save them for

960
00:47:56,640 --> 00:47:59,000
Speaker 1: an Atlanta game, but we know that's when Matt Ryan's

961
00:47:59,040 --> 00:48:00,600
Speaker 1: gonna screw us. So that's like one of these things

962
00:48:00,640 --> 00:48:01,880
Speaker 1: where it's like I kind of just want to get

963
00:48:01,920 --> 00:48:03,839
Speaker 1: Carolina out of the way while this team is still hot,

964
00:48:04,120 --> 00:48:06,839
Speaker 1: still fine, so high, and if we get knocked out

965
00:48:07,440 --> 00:48:10,360
Speaker 1: week three with Carolina on the road, so be it.

966
00:48:10,800 --> 00:48:14,000
Speaker 1: It feels like it's the smart player this week. You're disgusting.

967
00:48:14,600 --> 00:48:17,200
Speaker 1: Yesterday I had so much love for you. We spent

968
00:48:17,320 --> 00:48:20,600
Speaker 1: so much time together. It was great to connect with you,

969
00:48:21,239 --> 00:48:25,400
Speaker 1: fond with you, and remind me and you why we

970
00:48:25,480 --> 00:48:28,680
Speaker 1: are brothers. And then you do something like this, which

971
00:48:29,080 --> 00:48:31,160
Speaker 1: is so detestable. It's like I don't even know who

972
00:48:31,239 --> 00:48:33,120
Speaker 1: you are. What if I told you Travis Reid loves

973
00:48:33,160 --> 00:48:36,440
Speaker 1: it as well? I mean, alright good And again, if

974
00:48:36,440 --> 00:48:38,719
Speaker 1: you want to see Travis Reid ranks all the best

975
00:48:38,760 --> 00:48:42,040
Speaker 1: teams you take in the Survivor contest, I believe Carolina

976
00:48:42,080 --> 00:48:44,120
Speaker 1: is his number one team. So it doesn't feel like

977
00:48:44,160 --> 00:48:46,879
Speaker 1: I'm too crazy with this read. I am gonna make

978
00:48:47,040 --> 00:48:49,359
Speaker 1: Colin when we do our podcast later, I'm gonna make

979
00:48:49,440 --> 00:48:53,480
Speaker 1: him take the Broncos alright now, Smart they can take

980
00:48:53,480 --> 00:48:56,880
Speaker 1: the Broncos because also because the Broncos feel waste a

981
00:48:56,960 --> 00:49:01,040
Speaker 1: million times safer, honestly, but I just would love to

982
00:49:01,160 --> 00:49:02,799
Speaker 1: just get Carolina out of the way, just like last year.

983
00:49:02,840 --> 00:49:04,440
Speaker 1: We got rid of the Browns in week two, and

984
00:49:04,440 --> 00:49:05,839
Speaker 1: I feel like a genius because we have to use

985
00:49:05,920 --> 00:49:07,400
Speaker 1: them again the rest of the year. I feel the

986
00:49:07,400 --> 00:49:08,840
Speaker 1: same way trying to get rid of the Carolina. Now

987
00:49:08,920 --> 00:49:10,279
Speaker 1: you know what I'm gonna do. I'm gonna give him

988
00:49:10,280 --> 00:49:12,520
Speaker 1: a choice. I like that. I'm gonna give them a choice.

989
00:49:13,080 --> 00:49:16,840
Speaker 1: All right, let's recap for everybody. Our hornets nest walking

990
00:49:16,880 --> 00:49:19,839
Speaker 1: into a hornets nest. We're looking at the Rams over

991
00:49:19,920 --> 00:49:23,960
Speaker 1: the Bucks. Our money line parlays that we like. Correct

992
00:49:24,000 --> 00:49:27,680
Speaker 1: me if I'm wrong, Chargers Eagles, Chargers Miami Miami Eagles,

993
00:49:28,400 --> 00:49:34,680
Speaker 1: three for sure, Chargers Miami Eagles, and we will debate Rams, Vikings,

994
00:49:35,120 --> 00:49:38,480
Speaker 1: Niners and Bengals plus three and Bengals plus three and

995
00:49:38,480 --> 00:49:42,239
Speaker 1: a half. If he gets there, man, I'll say it again.

996
00:49:42,480 --> 00:49:45,480
Speaker 1: I say it every week. Fucking level. We are. What's

997
00:49:45,520 --> 00:49:48,840
Speaker 1: not to love, Simon. This has been a great podcast.

998
00:49:49,280 --> 00:49:53,160
Speaker 1: Seeing you for this long, over twenty four hours is amazing.

999
00:49:53,520 --> 00:49:57,080
Speaker 1: I still don't hate me, Love you forever, brother. This

1000
00:49:57,280 --> 00:50:01,239
Speaker 1: has been the favorites from the Volume podcast Network. I

1001
00:50:01,320 --> 00:50:03,640
Speaker 1: am Chad Millman. He is Simon Hunter. Our producer is

1002
00:50:03,680 --> 00:50:07,160
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell. Download us from Apple Podcasts, from Spotify, wherever

1003
00:50:07,280 --> 00:50:12,560
Speaker 1: you get your podcast. Rate review subscribe until Tuesday. Love you,