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Speaker 1: Hey guys, how are you welcome into a Thursday morning

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Speaker 1: edition of the Deal Juice Podcast with me Matt Parrelt

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Speaker 1: at Sports Talk Matt to follow me. We're here thanks

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Speaker 1: to betting pros. The offer which is always above me

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Speaker 1: ten dollars bet wins one hundred and fifty dollars for

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Speaker 1: the YouTube video that is above me. But if you're listening,

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Speaker 1: ten dollars bet one hundred and fifty bucks when we

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Speaker 1: set up for a new account with BETMGM Nott valad

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Speaker 1: in Nevada, win or lose one hundred and fifty bucks

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Speaker 1: into your account for that ten dollars bet with the

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Speaker 1: promo code Juice one fifty. Okay, Oh to night. Last

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Speaker 1: night I got smoked. I tried to do a bunch

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Speaker 1: of different things. Rangers just lit up the Tampa Bay

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Speaker 1: Lightning and boy, oh boy, are they live to win

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Speaker 1: that series. Rangers are hot, bottom line, they are hot,

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Speaker 1: and they played really well. Flew over team total, flew

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Speaker 1: over their game total. I don't think anybody really saw

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Speaker 1: that coming. And I tried. I bet under six and

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Speaker 1: a half, so I was under five and a half

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Speaker 1: under six and a half and lost both those bets.

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Speaker 1: Goal in the first three minutes, so that no goal

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Speaker 1: in the first ten that didn't come in. I pushed

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Speaker 1: on the golf bet between Brady Mahomes, Allen and and Rodgers, who,

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Speaker 1: by far as the bets go best golf row though

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Speaker 1: four of those guys that was not good golf here

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Speaker 1: at the win. But the win looked gorgeous, the weather

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Speaker 1: was perfect. It was an awesome day for Vegas, awesome

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Speaker 1: night for Vegas, Green showcase for the city. So uh

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Speaker 1: three and one night for me last night, oh and

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Speaker 1: two officially on the podcast, down one unit. So not great.

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Speaker 1: But we head towards the NBA Finals tonight the Boston Celtics.

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Speaker 1: We've got Game two of the Western Conference Finals in

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Speaker 1: the NHL. I've got two player props I'm jumping in

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Speaker 1: here with for the NBA Finals. We've not done NBA

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Speaker 1: player props in a while. I want to bring that back.

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Speaker 1: We've got some money to play with here because of

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Speaker 1: the plus, the ten to one that we've got on

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Speaker 1: the Celtics and the seven to one here on on

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Speaker 1: the Warriors. We're good, okay, So we got where we're

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Speaker 1: gonna come up in the in the black when it

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Speaker 1: comes to the NBA when it comes up to the

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Speaker 1: NBA seasons. Now we can play off of it and

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Speaker 1: have some fun and do some unique things and be

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Speaker 1: a bit more exotic and committed with these games. So

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Speaker 1: I played this perfectly. I'm so excited to have this

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Speaker 1: opportunity to be knowing we've got this in our back

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Speaker 1: pocket and we can play around with it. So fired

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Speaker 1: up to get going here with Game one of the

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Speaker 1: NBA Finals with the Boston Celtics. For a side, Okay,

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Speaker 1: I'm not betting a side in the game. However, you

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Speaker 1: have to understand that if at any point during the

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Speaker 1: game Boston is catching six and a half points or

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Speaker 1: more from the Warriors, I will be firing on it live. Okay.

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Speaker 1: This is an in game betting opportunity. Why Boston is

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Speaker 1: outstanding twelve and zero ats this year when a line

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Speaker 1: is between zero to three and a half on either

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Speaker 1: side plus or minus. Okay. So this is a team

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Speaker 1: that is very, very good at covering spread, either when

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Speaker 1: they're laying three and a half or they are catching

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Speaker 1: three and a half. They have a tremendous record for

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Speaker 1: games being decided by six points or more, winning the

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Speaker 1: game's outright it's fifty and twenty five. Boston does not

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Speaker 1: play well in tight basketball games seven and seventeen. They're

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Speaker 1: record straight up in a game that's decided by I

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Speaker 1: think less than two possessions. I believe. I think it's

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Speaker 1: five points or less. Yeah, five points are less seven

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Speaker 1: and seventeen for Boston. Okay, So if it's tight in

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Speaker 1: the fourth quarter, Boston's probably gonna lose the game, but

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Speaker 1: they might cover at three and a half. Okay, So

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Speaker 1: just a heads up on this. It's why I'm not

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Speaker 1: I want points in game Okay, that's how to play

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Speaker 1: this game. For game one that gets to four, No five,

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Speaker 1: no six, start paying attention six and a half, get involved.

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Speaker 1: Start taking the Celtics at plus six and a half

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Speaker 1: for this game, and I think Boston can steal game one.

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Speaker 1: I really, Boston's taking one of these two games. Okay,

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Speaker 1: they're taking game one or game two. Either they lose,

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Speaker 1: they lose Game one, they're taking game two. They win

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Speaker 1: game one. We'll see what happens in game two. But

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Speaker 1: Celtics remember this series to wind up going six games,

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Speaker 1: five games at plus two, fifty six games at plus one.

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Speaker 1: Ninety made those prop bets already last night, got the

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Speaker 1: Draymond Green bet going to have five or more assists

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Speaker 1: in every game. At five to one, We're gonna get

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Speaker 1: even more committed here on game one props in just

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Speaker 1: one second. But first, let me tell you about our

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Speaker 1: in do it. Let's talk hockey first, then we'll get

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Speaker 1: to basketball seconds. All right, If you're even remotely paying attention.

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Speaker 1: You know what's going on in the Western Conference. Fourteen

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Speaker 1: goals were scored in the first game. Books open, circus

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Speaker 1: sports open at seven here in Vegas. Seven. Okay, they

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Speaker 1: never do that. They hate to do that. Some books

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Speaker 1: are at seven and a half already. I don't know.

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Speaker 1: We might see an eight. I've never seen an eight,

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Speaker 1: but we might see an eight in this game. In

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Speaker 1: this series, we've got potentially a backup goaltender for the

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Speaker 1: Colorado Avalanche. Darcy Camper got hurt in Game one. Could

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Speaker 1: he play in game two? Maybe more on that in

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Speaker 1: a second. But the total of seven, I'm gonna do

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Speaker 1: something I don't normally do. I want to win a

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Speaker 1: half a unit, not bet a half a unit. Okay,

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Speaker 1: so at minus one thirty five to bet the over

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Speaker 1: seven goals. This is going to be a wide open series.

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Speaker 1: We saw it with Edmonton and Calgary. This is going

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Speaker 1: to be very similar here with Colorado. I mean, maybe

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Speaker 1: the Avalanche get good defensive play in good tending tonight.

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Speaker 1: I don't see it. Personally. I think the Oilers have

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Speaker 1: a very real shot of winning this game and tying

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Speaker 1: this game. I think mcjesus, I think drycydle. I think

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Speaker 1: this line is gonna score consistently throughout this entire series.

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Speaker 1: I don't think they get slowed down, and I don't

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Speaker 1: think this game stays under. I think we go over seven.

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Speaker 1: At worse, we push, but it's minus one thirty five.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna lay zero point six to eight units to

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Speaker 1: win a half a unit, okay, So I'm trying to

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Speaker 1: win a half versus flat wagering. I don't normally recommend

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Speaker 1: doing this, but I think on this wager at minus

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Speaker 1: one thirty five, I'm not recommending you can get seven.

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Speaker 1: I think it matters seven and a half and seven

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Speaker 1: is a big difference to me. So I think it's

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Speaker 1: worth putting a little extra money down on this in

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Speaker 1: order to get yourself into a position where like, okay,

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Speaker 1: if you if your one unit is one hundred bucks,

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Speaker 1: you know you didn't go okay. So normally I'm saying

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Speaker 1: lay fifty. Well, now I'm saying lay sixty eight, Lay

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Speaker 1: a little more, get a little more juice and a

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Speaker 1: little more action at it, because then you're gonna come

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Speaker 1: back and win fifty. Pay the juice before you know again.

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Speaker 1: I tend to flat wager That's what I recommend and

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Speaker 1: what I like because it keeps your bets consistent, so

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Speaker 1: it's not so much of what you're winning, it's what

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Speaker 1: you're losing. I'm more concerned about what I'm losing than

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Speaker 1: when I'm winning. But other people have different philosophies For

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Speaker 1: this bet. There's no I can't see it. Colorado and

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Speaker 1: Edmonton are going to score. They're going to score, and

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Speaker 1: they're going to score five goals in the first period.

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Speaker 1: It didn't even feel fluky, to be honest. It just

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Speaker 1: felt like this is the type of series it's going

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Speaker 1: to be. We're not seeing fourteen goals. Don't need fourteen,

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Speaker 1: I need eight. I think we're getting eight goals here

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Speaker 1: in this game. We're going over again over seven minus

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Speaker 1: one thirty five, laying point six to eight units to

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Speaker 1: win a half a unit coming back on that second bet.

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Speaker 1: This bet is a halfy unit because it's a plus

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Speaker 1: money bet. Go to BETMGM to find this. Okay, we

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Speaker 1: did this team total with Colorado in the first game

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Speaker 1: and we hit it going to come back. It wasn't official.

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Speaker 1: I hit that personally. I told you about on the podcast, though,

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Speaker 1: I'm going to make this official Oilers over three and

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Speaker 1: a half goals is plus one ten Right now at BETMGM,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna jump on this because I think there's goaltending

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Speaker 1: problems right now with Colorado. I think there's a real

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Speaker 1: good chance we get a four to three win. At

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Speaker 1: the worst for the Oilers, they may score five. This

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Speaker 1: could be the game where Mike Smith comes back and

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Speaker 1: plays well after getting yanked in Game one. Mike Smith

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Speaker 1: comes back and plays much better in game two, and

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Speaker 1: the Oilers win the game five to two or five

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Speaker 1: to three. They go over their team total of three

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Speaker 1: and a half, which seems to be really low. Could

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Speaker 1: if you want to get a little wonky and crazy

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Speaker 1: and you want to go you know, exotic, you could

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Speaker 1: ladder this. I didn't actually look at this. Let me

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Speaker 1: see if I can pull this up really quick at

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Speaker 1: BETMGM because I think laddering this. Hey, I'm not going

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Speaker 1: to tell you what to do, but it's not a

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Speaker 1: bad way of doing it. If you want to go

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Speaker 1: through and talk about team totals and say, okay, so Edmonton,

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Speaker 1: if you go over three and a half goals is

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Speaker 1: plus one ten. Four goals is plus one ninety four

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Speaker 1: and a half goals is plus two fifty. I don't

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Speaker 1: hate any of that. You could bet. I mean three

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Speaker 1: is minus one forty. You could bet three miles one

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Speaker 1: forty three and a half plus one ten four plus

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Speaker 1: one ninety and four and a half a plus two forty.

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Speaker 1: I just think Edmonton's going to win this game. I

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Speaker 1: do think. I just bet the game Edmonton to win. Maybe,

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Speaker 1: but I think there's different ways of approaching this. I

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Speaker 1: just think there's a real good shot to jump in

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Speaker 1: on Edmonton to score up against either goalten and it's

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Speaker 1: going to be in there for Colorado. And I don't

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Speaker 1: think defensively the Avalanche can slow down McDavid at all.

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Speaker 1: I think they haven't seen normally. It's McKinnon who's like

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Speaker 1: lighting everything up and teams are like, oh my gosh,

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Speaker 1: McDavid and Drysidelo just doing the exact same thing. And

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Speaker 1: I don't think the Avalanche are prepped for it. They're like,

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Speaker 1: these guys are playing at a different speed than we are.

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Speaker 1: So over three and a half at plus one ten

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Speaker 1: for a half a unit team total Edmonton Oilers is

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Speaker 1: the second bet here for half a unit on the

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Speaker 1: game game two tonight in the Western Conference Finals. Okay,

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Speaker 1: so from there we go to basketball, and let's talk

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Speaker 1: about I've been talking about this for a couple of days. Now,

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Speaker 1: you guys know where I'm going with this. I'm taking

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Speaker 1: the under for the Boston Celtics and the Golden State Warriors.

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Speaker 1: The first game these two teams played, Steph Curry scored

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Speaker 1: thirty points Boston was in December. In that swoon, it

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Speaker 1: changed everything around. Boston flipped the switch soon after their

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Speaker 1: loss to Golden State. It was a one to eleven,

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Speaker 1: one to seventeen loss to Golden State. Curry fouled out.

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Speaker 1: Curry scored thirty points in the game. Game went over

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Speaker 1: by one and a half points. Then in the second meeting,

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Speaker 1: Boston in the middle of their incredible resurgence in which

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Speaker 1: they won games on the road at Golden State by

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Speaker 1: what are they winn by the one that by twenty

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Speaker 1: two points. They won against Sacramento by twenty nine points,

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Speaker 1: and they won against Denver at by twenty points on

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Speaker 1: the road. That's when I bet Boston to win the

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Speaker 1: NBA Championship at ten to one. During that run in March,

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Speaker 1: I thought it was February. It's March, because that was

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Speaker 1: insane to go through Golden State, Sacramento, and Denver. Now,

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Speaker 1: the Golden State game went under by twenty two points

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Speaker 1: because Curry got hurt in that game Rolledden ankle. Boston

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Speaker 1: annihilated them soon afterwards. But overall, Boston on the road

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Speaker 1: this year year twenty five, twenty four and one to

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Speaker 1: the over, so pretty much flat. At home the Warriors

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Speaker 1: twenty eight, twenty and two to the under. And for

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Speaker 1: the most part, Boston has been an underplay. Three of

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Speaker 1: the last four games against Miami went under. Last two

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Speaker 1: games against Milwaukee went under. The games early against Memphis

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Speaker 1: first game went over, Golden State next, and then the

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Speaker 1: rest of the series we saw only two more overs,

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Speaker 1: everything else four under. So it's four and three to

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Speaker 1: the under in the series against Memphis. Against Dallas, it

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Speaker 1: was three games to the over, two games to the

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Speaker 1: under in this game, and really it was somewhat surprising

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Speaker 1: because Dallas was shooting so many threes. It really shocked.

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Speaker 1: Boston's not going to do what Dallas did. Boston, I

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Speaker 1: think it's gonna lock down defensively. Boston is not interested

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Speaker 1: in playing a real up tempo, grun and gun type

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Speaker 1: of style to keep the crowd in. I think Boston's

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Speaker 1: want to take the air out of the basketball. Use

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Speaker 1: their size, use their strength, because they are going to

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Speaker 1: be bigger across the board, not taller, bigger across the board.

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Speaker 1: They are a big basketball team. Warriors really aren't. Steph

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Speaker 1: Curry is thin, Klay Thompson's not physical, Draymond Green is

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Speaker 1: short in stature, He's stalky, short in stature. Looney is

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Speaker 1: not that big for a five. Sure, Jordan Pool is long,

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Speaker 1: but again very slender. Boston's gonna throw guys like Robert

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Speaker 1: Williams and Marcus Smart at these dudes who are bulky,

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Speaker 1: who are bowling balls, and they're tall. So physicality. How

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Speaker 1: this game gets refereed is so important to me. I

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Speaker 1: need the referees keeping keep their whistles in their pockets,

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Speaker 1: do not call fouls, don't go crazy, Let Boston get physical.

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Speaker 1: Total is two twelve and a half. I'm going under

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Speaker 1: half a unit Boston Golden State game one to twelve

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Speaker 1: and a half. Live bet coming if Boston catches six

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Speaker 1: and a half or more points at any point in

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Speaker 1: the game. Live total. And I'm just telling you look

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Speaker 1: out for the Celtics. I know I'm a guy. I'm

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Speaker 1: wearing a green hat. I'm a Boston guy. You can say, ah,

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Speaker 1: Matt in the Boston. I'm just telling you right now.

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Speaker 1: The analytics love Boston in the series, love the Celtics

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Speaker 1: in this series, and everyone's betting the Warriors like it

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Speaker 1: already happened. And when the public does that, you know

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Speaker 1: what happens oftentimes when the public does that. Okay, excuse me, sorry,

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about two player props that I like. So

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Speaker 1: Steph Curry has had some rough NBA finals. Steph Curry

291
00:14:33,320 --> 00:14:38,120
Speaker 1: has a overall effective field goal percentage with Marcus Smart

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Speaker 1: being his closest defender in the last three seasons of

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Speaker 1: twenty nine percent. That is the third worst against any

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Speaker 1: other defender in the NBA. Marcus Smart's gonna be all

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Speaker 1: over Steph Curry. Marcus Smart is off the injury list,

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Speaker 1: he is good to go. He will be all over

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Speaker 1: Steph Curry in Game one. I'm gonna go under twenty

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Speaker 1: seven and a half points at minus one five for

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Speaker 1: Steph Curry. I think Steph Curry's gonna pass the basketball

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Speaker 1: a lot. I don't mind betting Steph over assists, but

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Speaker 1: I bet the under on the points for Steph Curry,

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Speaker 1: and I know you're gonna go, Matt that's so dangerous.

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Speaker 1: It's Steph Curry. I get all of that, Okay, But

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Speaker 1: Curry has had games in the playoffs where he's been

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Speaker 1: more of a guy willing to give the basketball up

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Speaker 1: and pass the basketball. He scored fifteen points in the

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Speaker 1: game against the Mavericks, twenty points, thirty one points, thirty two,

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Speaker 1: twenty one points. Okay, So of the last five games,

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Speaker 1: again against one team, I understand that, But Steph Curry

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Speaker 1: only went over twenty seven points two of the last

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Speaker 1: five games. Also, I mean against the Grizzlies, he had

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Speaker 1: a game where he scored fourteen points. He had won,

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Speaker 1: you know, a couple of games twenty seven he went

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Speaker 1: under twenty seven and a half, scored twenty seven, scored thirty,

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Speaker 1: thirty two and twenty nine at the end of that series.

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Speaker 1: So he did have you know, he did go over

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Speaker 1: three of the last five against the Grizzlies. But I

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Speaker 1: think it's gonna be right there, and I think Steph's

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Speaker 1: gonna pass the basketball, and I think Marcus Smart's gonna

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Speaker 1: play effective defense on him and really make him give

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Speaker 1: the ball up and have somebody else do the scoring

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Speaker 1: for Golden State tonight under twenty seven and a half

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Speaker 1: points for Steph Curry at minus one oh five, and

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Speaker 1: then we are going to Marcus Smart, the primary defender.

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Speaker 1: And I'm looking at rebounds for Marcus Smart. Some books

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Speaker 1: FanDuel has already gone to four and a half and

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Speaker 1: giving you plus money on it. Most books are at

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Speaker 1: three and a half and you're paying minus one fifty juice.

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Speaker 1: I don't like that. I'm gonna go if I need

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Speaker 1: four anyway, how unlikely? How likely is it he gets five? Okay?

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Speaker 1: So Marcus Smart has been pretty consistent on the year.

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Speaker 1: Marcus Smart is averaging three point eight rebounds a game

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Speaker 1: in the playoffs. He's averaging you know, decent free I

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Speaker 1: guess it's still three point eight. That's a regular season

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Speaker 1: in the postseason. His last five games nine four, five,

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Speaker 1: didn't play against the mind Meet, so nine four, five,

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Speaker 1: four and nine okay. So he's been right there. He's

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Speaker 1: gone over four and a half three of the five games.

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Speaker 1: If you want to lay the juice and go over

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Speaker 1: three and a half, okay, I hear that you can

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Speaker 1: do that. I'm gonna take a flyer because, as I said,

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Speaker 1: we've got some extra money, we're a little more flush,

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Speaker 1: so we can push it a little bit. Here, get

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Speaker 1: Marcus Smart to five rebounds and it's plus one twenty.

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Speaker 1: I'd rather go with the plus money then lay the

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Speaker 1: juice at minus one thirty five. In particular, it's a

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Speaker 1: quarter unit, so like I mean, come on, that's not

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Speaker 1: a big return on a quarter unit, so it doesn't

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Speaker 1: make a lot of sense to do that. So I'm

350
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Speaker 1: gonna go ahead and lay the plus one twenty Marcus

351
00:17:33,280 --> 00:17:35,280
Speaker 1: Smart over four and a half rebounds at plus one

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00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:37,399
Speaker 1: twenty FanDuel at the time of taping has got that

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00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:39,040
Speaker 1: available for you right now, if you want to go

354
00:17:39,040 --> 00:17:41,320
Speaker 1: ahead and jump in on that. I do think that's

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00:17:41,359 --> 00:17:45,200
Speaker 1: a really good way of jumping in with that matchup

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00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:48,160
Speaker 1: between Marcus Smart and Jason Tatum under or sorry, Marcus

357
00:17:48,200 --> 00:17:51,040
Speaker 1: Smart in Steph Curry under Steph Curry twenty seven and

358
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Speaker 1: a half points quarter unit in minus one oh five

359
00:17:53,560 --> 00:17:56,200
Speaker 1: over four and a half rebounds for Marcus Smart at

360
00:17:56,200 --> 00:18:01,200
Speaker 1: plus one twenty at at FanDuel. For that, I'm gonna

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00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:04,399
Speaker 1: do one more quick thing here that I'm thinking of

362
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Speaker 1: it because I don't know if bet MGM lets you

363
00:18:07,680 --> 00:18:13,960
Speaker 1: ladder and individual players rebounds, I don't think that they do.

364
00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:19,119
Speaker 1: I think you can just bet rebounds, not the ladder

365
00:18:19,160 --> 00:18:22,000
Speaker 1: on our rebounds. Some offshore books do let you do that.

366
00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:25,120
Speaker 1: I wish more on sure books would do that. But yeah,

367
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Speaker 1: I mean they're at mis one fifty at bet MGM

368
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Speaker 1: for three and a half. But if you can find

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Speaker 1: Smart at three and a half, four and a half,

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00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:35,199
Speaker 1: five and a half, six and a half, don't hate it.

371
00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:39,040
Speaker 1: Why long rebounds from Steph Curry, Marcus Martin just turn around,

372
00:18:39,080 --> 00:18:41,240
Speaker 1: the ball might fall to him. Rebounds are random, but

373
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Speaker 1: I think him being the primary defender against def I

374
00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:47,359
Speaker 1: think good rebounding opportunities are gonna pop up here for

375
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Speaker 1: Marcus Smart here in this game against Steph Curry. Okay,

376
00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:54,560
Speaker 1: so plays again a bunch of them today over seven

377
00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:59,080
Speaker 1: goals Oilers Avalanche minus one thirty five were laying point

378
00:18:59,119 --> 00:19:01,120
Speaker 1: six to eight units on that to win a half

379
00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:04,160
Speaker 1: a unit Oilers team total over three and a half

380
00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:07,160
Speaker 1: at plus one ten for a half a unit under

381
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Speaker 1: two twelve and a half. Celtics and the Warriors Game

382
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Speaker 1: one of the NBA Finals tonight, half a unit Steph

383
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Speaker 1: Curry under twenty seven and a half points at minus

384
00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:18,760
Speaker 1: one oh five for a quarter unit. Marcus Smart over

385
00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:21,720
Speaker 1: four and a half rebounds at plus one twenty for

386
00:19:21,920 --> 00:19:25,040
Speaker 1: a half a unit. Let's have some fun watching the

387
00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:28,439
Speaker 1: live wagering in the game for Celtics Warriors again. That

388
00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:30,440
Speaker 1: six and a half number for Boston to Hugh Key

389
00:19:30,520 --> 00:19:32,080
Speaker 1: a huge key if you get it and think you

390
00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:34,720
Speaker 1: fire on it. I like it a lot. Let's watch

391
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Speaker 1: these games in the Discord channel together tonight game one

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Speaker 1: of the finals. You know what I'm gonna be. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna be on one coming up here tonight. Let's go Celtics.

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Speaker 1: Should be a lot of fun. It's great I can

395
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Speaker 1: cheer for my team because if the Warriors win, we

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00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:48,480
Speaker 1: catch a seven to one ticket. So you can't get

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Speaker 1: madd at me for being a homer, because well, I'm

398
00:19:50,800 --> 00:19:52,360
Speaker 1: gonna catch a seven to one ticket for you guys

399
00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:54,880
Speaker 1: with the Warriors for one unit, so can't hate on it.

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Speaker 1: Minus Matt Paroltz. Follow me on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt.

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Speaker 1: Each and every morning it's the Aldus Podcast. I was

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Speaker 1: being you by BEDAMJM.