Speaker 1: Check it down, Man Down Now Thursday morning, except for
Speaker 1: six twenty eight teens defeating the Book podcast Kill Alexander
Speaker 1: Megapod time Week fourteen in the National Football League. As always,
Speaker 1: the show brought to you by the score X T
Speaker 1: A T S C O r e X dot com.
Speaker 1: Four weeks left before Marco and as we have a
Speaker 1: guest on the wild Card megapod because of course, if
Speaker 1: you signed up at the score x with the promo
Speaker 1: code guilt, you were entered into the beating the book
Speaker 1: pool of score xers. That's the old stock market thing
Speaker 1: that I've been talking about, stock market football thing that
Speaker 1: I've been talking about for years and years on the show.
Speaker 1: Right now, in the lead, Profitable, Profitable is in the lead,
Speaker 1: and Profitable let me just say this, Profitable has extended
Speaker 1: his lead. I assume it's a him. I shouldn't assume
Speaker 1: that could be a she. I don't know what profitable is.
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Speaker 1: dot com. Congratulations, and it's a big lead at this
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Speaker 1: has extended. Profitable the Man Debate or the Woman Debate
Speaker 1: over at the score x dot com. Check it out.
Speaker 1: Great vehicle for sports spending on the show today, of course,
Speaker 1: is always the pillars of the show. Thirty nine years
Speaker 1: in the business. Marco d Angelo from Wager Talk. Good
Speaker 1: morning Marco, Good morning, Gil. How are you today? I'm
Speaker 1: doing very well, Marco. Here's the story. I get texts
Speaker 1: from buddies of ours texting me the food you're eating
Speaker 1: before the megapod. Hey, this is a very tough show.
Speaker 1: You know. We gotta go Monday night, Sunday night, best
Speaker 1: that upset who I don't want to play, and then
Speaker 1: Thursday night and we do all that in an hour.
Speaker 1: I need to be properly Field, Yeah, good little where'd
Speaker 1: you go today? Was the restaurant of his restaurant, shoutout
Speaker 1: pigs glorified ham and eggs. Pigs glorified ham and eggs.
Speaker 1: All right, never been but hey, it's so good, Gil.
Speaker 1: It's so good that Mark and I I didn't know
Speaker 1: the other one was going there, and we both were there.
Speaker 1: He was leaving as I was coming. Oh that wasn't planned.
Speaker 1: That was not planned. No, al right, by the way,
Speaker 1: because I you could tell I was searching frantically for
Speaker 1: the score X contest Danny's, which disappeared from my screen
Speaker 1: as we were talking. But Profitable is up thirty three
Speaker 1: point one percent, Dio the Greek up twenty six percent,
Speaker 1: Top sch Left up seven percent, the Wick up twenty
Speaker 1: three point three percent, Liam Converse in fifth, up twenty
Speaker 1: two point five percent. So Profitable well in the lead
Speaker 1: on my left, out of the sports betting diaspora, Ladies
Speaker 1: and gentlemen as taste. All right, thanks for having me, brother.
Speaker 1: You got another win last week, did you not? No, no,
Speaker 1: no no. I gave up Atlanta Atlanta yesterday, blunt weight.
Speaker 1: I'm sorry. Fortunately we agreed on Atlanta, but they did
Speaker 1: not come through. They did not come through. I was
Speaker 1: on them as well. Uh yeah, that was not good.
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson and the Ravens getting themselves another win again.
Speaker 1: The conversation that's taking place between John Harbaugh and Joe
Speaker 1: Flacco goes a little something like this, Hey, Coach Harbaugh,
Speaker 1: my hips fine, Uh no, it's not, Joe. You know, seriously,
Speaker 1: I'm ready to play. Actually, I think your hip still hurts.
Speaker 1: We're gonna go with Lamar this week and on the
Speaker 1: show for the first time ever. He hosts a podcast
Speaker 1: called The Better Life, and of course that's spelled b
Speaker 1: E T T O R. We'll get an explanation from
Speaker 1: him just on what that's about. Specifically, ladies and gentlemen,
Speaker 1: I present to you Tim Lawson. Good morning, Tim, Hello Gil.
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for for thinking of me. It's
Speaker 1: it's exciting after listening to the show for so long
Speaker 1: to now be a contributing member. So yeah, I do
Speaker 1: appreciate the opportunity. Yes, and Tim for for those who
Speaker 1: didn't don't know. Off air, just before the show, he
Speaker 1: was like, oh my god, my self is so excited
Speaker 1: right now. And I'm like, oh, it's so like your
Speaker 1: current self doesn't really give And he's like, well, just
Speaker 1: just a little different, is what he was saying. It's yeah,
Speaker 1: it's a little different. What's the Better Life about? So?
Speaker 1: The Better Life launched just under a year ago as
Speaker 1: a podcast about gambling and more more uh more, specifically
Speaker 1: the betters that are that are living this life as gamblers,
Speaker 1: and uh we learned about a gamblers sort of how
Speaker 1: they were first exposed to gambling, their for their the
Speaker 1: first bets they may have may knew their first visit
Speaker 1: to casino whatever their games of choice are, whether it's sports, betting, poker,
Speaker 1: table games, whatever it may be, slots, video poker, um.
Speaker 1: And then sort of learned about like how their family responded,
Speaker 1: what their what their approach to playing is now, and
Speaker 1: um and and and in the midst of all that,
Speaker 1: we still have conversations with sort of in general about
Speaker 1: about gambling, but the real focus of the show is
Speaker 1: to learn about the stories of gamblers, how they've developed
Speaker 1: as a gambler in uh, sort of just enjoying that
Speaker 1: discussion of recreational gambling that so much so many of
Speaker 1: us enjoy like it. You do have somebody on the
Speaker 1: show coming up this weekend though, right, that's right. I
Speaker 1: was just before you hit record, I just mentioned that
Speaker 1: it's uh, this is really good timing on on on
Speaker 1: my my appearance here on the megapod, because in the
Speaker 1: next twenty four hours I will be releasing an interview
Speaker 1: that I did with with your with our own VR.
Speaker 1: So this is this is like you uncensored on this
Speaker 1: show a pretty much. I yeah, it was a little
Speaker 1: while back. We did it, you know, but I had
Speaker 1: a lot of fun, you know me. I love talking
Speaker 1: this sports betting. Okay, yeah, so it was. It's the
Speaker 1: interview we recorded a little while back November. Got a
Speaker 1: little little busy formula. It actually worked out on sort
Speaker 1: of the timing and when it's gonna be released really
Speaker 1: excite a lot of people looking forward to that interview.
Speaker 1: And I think I think it's one of the um
Speaker 1: you know we got. We got a lot of unique
Speaker 1: perspectives from people, but I think this is one that
Speaker 1: not a lot of This is a perspective that not
Speaker 1: a lot of people have heard about a person that
Speaker 1: a lot of people know. I like, yeah, I like it, Marco,
Speaker 1: You and me should tune into. Maybe we're gonna learn
Speaker 1: some about a said we didn't know. Also, the Better Life,
Speaker 1: Ace is not only a man of mystery now Aces everywhere.
Speaker 1: Just I just want to point that out. We've already
Speaker 1: sort of hinted at where as is Aces on Goalie
Speaker 1: can Wingo. Ace got some UFC thing coming up big time,
Speaker 1: so we're very excited for him. So we'll check out
Speaker 1: the episode of the Better Life with haste this weekend,
Speaker 1: available where all podcasts are distributed. Let us begin with
Speaker 1: the Monday night game Gentlemen Minnesota at Seattle. This is
Speaker 1: a big game. Minnesota six five of one, Seattle is
Speaker 1: seven and five right now. If the playoffs were to
Speaker 1: start in the NFC, Seattle be the number one wild card,
Speaker 1: Minnesota be the number two. So this has big time
Speaker 1: implications Seattle right now, A let's call the three point
Speaker 1: favorite across the board. Yeah, that's about right, three point favorite.
Speaker 1: Extra juice total in this game is forty five. Vikings
Speaker 1: coming off a loss, a fourteen point loss, I believe
Speaker 1: it was to the New England Patriots. Minnesota could not
Speaker 1: get the win. They could not get the cover. Typical
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins through a up the late picks. Uh, it's
Speaker 1: kind of what he does, some bad decision making, perhaps
Speaker 1: late not all his fault for sure. Uh. It is
Speaker 1: at New England, and those things happen when you face
Speaker 1: the Patriots. But Minnesota now in a year where they
Speaker 1: were expected to do oh so much, six five and one.
Speaker 1: It should be noted that case Kingdom no longer the
Speaker 1: Vikings quarterback six and six over in never not much
Speaker 1: of a difference. And then there's Seattle. Seattle crushes the
Speaker 1: Niners last week, crushes them, and Russell Wilson just the
Speaker 1: model of efficiency eleven of seventeen for four touchdowns. Note
Speaker 1: picks in the first half. I just want to point
Speaker 1: this out. First half last week four completions, three for
Speaker 1: touchdowns sports Radar sport Radar, I should say Wilson throwing
Speaker 1: three touchdowns on four completions made for the fewest touchdowns
Speaker 1: per completion in a first half dating back to when
Speaker 1: they first are able to get these stats. The previous
Speaker 1: low was six completions for three touchdowns. So this is
Speaker 1: just off the charts what he did last week. And
Speaker 1: that's just kind of how his season has been. Seattle
Speaker 1: favored by three total forty five tim your thoughts, well, uh,
Speaker 1: Gil I I originally prevail from the the Great Pacific Northwest,
Speaker 1: and uh and I am a huge Seahawks fan. It's
Speaker 1: the one thing that I that I have kept with
Speaker 1: me and all of my travels and moving stuff like that.
Speaker 1: I've always been a Seahawks fan. And um, you know,
Speaker 1: going into this season, Seahawks fans in general, we were
Speaker 1: sort of we also, uh, we're sort of we're we
Speaker 1: weren't sort of agreeing with the narrative, but we accepted
Speaker 1: the narrative that the Seahawks probably weren't gonna be much
Speaker 1: this year, that this was gonna be a rebuilding year, uh,
Speaker 1: and that they were going to be they got written
Speaker 1: off really early in the season, like this is gonna
Speaker 1: be a competitive team, that we're not going to see
Speaker 1: them in the playoffs. And then I think they've shocked
Speaker 1: everybody and how competitive they've been in their their ability
Speaker 1: to to be playoff to have a potential playoffs spot
Speaker 1: while being in a division that was clearly going to
Speaker 1: get be dominated by by the Rams Minnesota coming off
Speaker 1: that tough loss against our disappointing loss, I guess, or
Speaker 1: to say against the Patriots have to go all the
Speaker 1: way across the country to kind of go into Seattle
Speaker 1: and compete with a Seahawks team that is pumped about
Speaker 1: where they are on their opportunity to really get one
Speaker 1: step further towards landing a wild card seed. All that said, though, uh,
Speaker 1: I don't know if I like either side enough to
Speaker 1: to to make a wager, but I am actually gonna
Speaker 1: be looking at some player props if you don't mind
Speaker 1: me taking that angle. Yes, so the Seattle defense is
Speaker 1: pretty uh, it's it's it's efficient enough on running that
Speaker 1: are probably not gonna look towards anything on that, but
Speaker 1: they leave a little bit to be desired on their
Speaker 1: passing defense, and where they especially have tough difficulty is
Speaker 1: with the wide receiver one position. And so Adam Feeling
Speaker 1: was on fire for the first half of the season.
Speaker 1: He has been uh since not quite as as potent
Speaker 1: as he has been, But I will be looking UH
Speaker 1: towards some Adam Feeling player props, specifically over under on
Speaker 1: receptions and over under on yards. Earlier, we've been seeing
Speaker 1: a lot of UH one five yards over under on
Speaker 1: on Adam Feeland. It's slowly going down as he UH
Speaker 1: as he's had a twenty eight yard game sixty six,
Speaker 1: twenty two. A lot of that because the Stefon Diggs
Speaker 1: coming back and taking some of those targets. But um,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be looking both at Adam Feeling and UH
Speaker 1: and Stefon Diggs on both receptions and yards, and I'm
Speaker 1: gonna see where the lines are gonna give, which players
Speaker 1: are going to give the most benefits, and try to
Speaker 1: take advantage of of taking an over on Adam Feeland
Speaker 1: on both receptions and yards. If if it if if
Speaker 1: the if the line's right, Tim by the way, wasn't
Speaker 1: that easy? Wasn't that good? Eight years in the making,
Speaker 1: your first capsule on the show? Well done. It's like
Speaker 1: it's like you've been here the whole time, even adding
Speaker 1: a prop, Yeah, we was. I guess you'd say I'm
Speaker 1: looking towards Adam Feeling in the sense that I think
Speaker 1: Stefon Diggs was already gonna have too exaggerated a line
Speaker 1: because he is Stefon Diggs, and because theeland is coming
Speaker 1: off of three or four games that have been under
Speaker 1: sixty seven yards. So I think Feeling is probably where
Speaker 1: we're gonna not only get some value on the line,
Speaker 1: but also have the opportunity to maybe break away. I
Speaker 1: mean his yards after catchers on real right, So, and
Speaker 1: I think the Seahawks may have a difficult than me
Speaker 1: a challenge containing that. So that he's the way I'm
Speaker 1: looking on on that. Valen stats are certainly that of
Speaker 1: a wide receiver one that's for sure. This year it's
Speaker 1: just been unbelievable. A little bit less in recent weeks,
Speaker 1: but um, just an amazing season for Feeling. Kirk Cousins
Speaker 1: last weekend defeat by the Way thirty two or two
Speaker 1: oh one one touchdown, two picks, sacked twice. Against the Patriots,
Speaker 1: the Vikings were three for twelve on third downs. That
Speaker 1: was their achilles CeAl in that game against Patriots. Minnesota
Speaker 1: now has lost two of its past three. They entered
Speaker 1: that game against New England allowing the third fewest rushing
Speaker 1: yards in the league ninety three point six yards per game,
Speaker 1: and then New England spread him out rushed for one sixty. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: the Seahawks again against the Niners, they're just killing it
Speaker 1: and Bobby Wagner capping the blowout with a ninety eight
Speaker 1: yard interception return first to his career longest and franchise history.
Speaker 1: In that game, they held the Niners in check. Obviously,
Speaker 1: Seahawks have been on fire, Marco. They have just had
Speaker 1: an amazing run here against a really tough midseason schedule.
Speaker 1: Here they get a break here down the stretch where
Speaker 1: they get the Niners without Garoppolo a couple of times,
Speaker 1: but Minnesota sandwiched in between here, good Monday night game.
Speaker 1: What you got it is a good Monday night game.
Speaker 1: But I'm gonna disagree with one thing you said. They're yeah,
Speaker 1: they're hot, but you talk about a tough schedule. Well,
Speaker 1: the tough schedule was the Rams, the Chargers, and the Rams,
Speaker 1: and they lost all three of those games. They lost
Speaker 1: them all. Okay, the teams they've beaten, the only team
Speaker 1: that they've beaten in this seven and three run was
Speaker 1: Dallas and that was the third week of September, when
Speaker 1: Dallas's offense was non existent. May interrupt you, may interrupt you.
Speaker 1: They played the Packers, They played the Packers when the
Speaker 1: Packers are still viable. They they played the Panthers. Your casual,
Speaker 1: you're casually going past the Packers have a winning record.
Speaker 1: Oh now, we're only talking about teams with winning records. Now,
Speaker 1: Oh got you? I believe you just out of that ahead.
Speaker 1: I'm sorry they did. But the fact is green Bay's
Speaker 1: four and six and Caroline is six and six. Not
Speaker 1: a winning record. They haven't beaten. The only team they've
Speaker 1: beaten the No. Seven right now that has a winning
Speaker 1: record is Dallas. That's the fact. I'm sorry. And for
Speaker 1: a numbers guy, don't you have a show that's you
Speaker 1: know something about numbers? Okay, alright, alright, well remembers don't
Speaker 1: mean anything, I guess. All right, but I'm looking at
Speaker 1: Minnesota here and I'm not sold on Seattle. And believe me,
Speaker 1: I think Pete Carroll, with what he's had talent wise
Speaker 1: this year, you know, has done Coach of the Year
Speaker 1: type performance. But there's a couple other guys that are
Speaker 1: gonna overshadow him for sure. But he's done and I
Speaker 1: think one of his best coaching jobs this year getting
Speaker 1: the most out of the least because I mean, you
Speaker 1: look at that offense on paper, what they had at
Speaker 1: the beginning of the season, and go back to what
Speaker 1: they lost on defense. Uh, this is a team that's
Speaker 1: definitely overachieved. Now we look at Minnesota and again the
Speaker 1: Sharks lined up on him against New England last week
Speaker 1: and Brady and uh Belichick did what they always do.
Speaker 1: But that game, once again was a kai game late
Speaker 1: in the third quarter, and then New England did what
Speaker 1: they did. They got two scores. Kirk Cousins, you know,
Speaker 1: has his you know turnover. You can always count on
Speaker 1: him at least one bad one a game and they
Speaker 1: lose the game. But I look at this one here,
Speaker 1: and although both teams are in the playoffs right now,
Speaker 1: if Minnesota loses this one, the season is over as
Speaker 1: far as any hope for the division UM and it's
Speaker 1: a it was a slim shot as it was, but
Speaker 1: they do get Chicago at home the final game of
Speaker 1: the season. They still had hope there. But if they
Speaker 1: lose this one, it's done. Not only that, but then
Speaker 1: they fall into that big pief of teams trying to
Speaker 1: get that last wild card spot and they don't have
Speaker 1: the tiebreaker against some of them. This is a spot
Speaker 1: where I'm looking for Minnesota and Kirk Cousins to finally
Speaker 1: deliver a big game performance in a big game. That's
Speaker 1: the one thing we haven't seen from Kirk Cousins, and
Speaker 1: that's the knock on them. But this is still a
Speaker 1: top defense. They're not what they were last year, but
Speaker 1: there are number seven defense and yards per play UH,
Speaker 1: number five in UM, yards per rush, UH, number seven,
Speaker 1: I believe in total yards rushing. And the reason why
Speaker 1: I keep honing in on the rushing is FICTI to
Speaker 1: Seattle has been when they get the running game going,
Speaker 1: look at this, As you said last week, the pass
Speaker 1: is just to complement the running game. They have been
Speaker 1: putting up big numbers on the ground. If they don't
Speaker 1: do that this week against this Minnesota defense, I think
Speaker 1: you're gonna see the Seattle offense bogged out. I like Minnesota.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with the old adage take the better
Speaker 1: defense getting and I'll take the Vikings. And they're still
Speaker 1: are three and a half out there that I think,
Speaker 1: if you what Minnesota it, you need to grab it
Speaker 1: now because I think Monday it's gonna be solid threes.
Speaker 1: When the season first started, though, I often talked about
Speaker 1: the Giants first seven games of the season being a gauntlet,
Speaker 1: and in fact, that's what it was, and the Giants
Speaker 1: went one in six in those first seven games. The
Speaker 1: other team that we talked about was at the end
Speaker 1: of the season that the Seahawks last nine games were
Speaker 1: the gauntlet that they absolutely we're gonna get crush because
Speaker 1: think about this before the season, here's what, here's what.
Speaker 1: Their last nine games was home Chargers at Rams, home
Speaker 1: Packers at Panthers, home Niners, Garoppolo home Vikings at Niners,
Speaker 1: Garoppolo home Chiefs before ending with the Cardinals. So really
Speaker 1: eight out of their last nine. But the Garoppolo injury
Speaker 1: happened all of a sudden, those two games got far easier,
Speaker 1: to say the least, and then they started they loose
Speaker 1: to the Charges, and they loose to the Rams, but
Speaker 1: then they beat a four four and one Packers. They
Speaker 1: beat the Panthers on that ridiculous end of game sequence
Speaker 1: where the Panthers just couldn't get it done and Russell
Speaker 1: Wilson just made an unbelievable worth down past. So that's
Speaker 1: really I mean, you talk about having this ridiculously hard
Speaker 1: schedule and things not only breaking your way in terms
Speaker 1: of opponent injuries, but then winning a couple of those
Speaker 1: in dramatic fashion. And remember the refs helped out in
Speaker 1: that Packers game, like how Bobby Wagner wasn't whistled for
Speaker 1: a clothesline pass interference and like Toryo was like, yeah,
Speaker 1: you can't call that. I'm like, in what world can't
Speaker 1: you call that? Like what are you talking about? But anyway,
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson, the genius, the magic of Russell Wilson's an
Speaker 1: amazing season I think for the Seahawks. But you'll take
Speaker 1: the three and a half with the Vikings for all
Speaker 1: the reasons you stated ace all right, well, it's pretty
Speaker 1: simple why Seattle is so good this year against the spread.
Speaker 1: If you remember, coming into this season, both these teams
Speaker 1: are surprising us. And what I mean by that is
Speaker 1: Minnesota got bet over if you remember that season win
Speaker 1: total open nine and a half got bet up to
Speaker 1: ten over. So there was a lot of anticipation for
Speaker 1: Minnesota to take over that division and you know, represent
Speaker 1: them in the playoffs. And on the flip side of that,
Speaker 1: you look at sea Attle. Not only did they come
Speaker 1: out with the eight under favored, but it got that
Speaker 1: down the seven and a half under favor. This is
Speaker 1: a team that wasn't even expected to be, you know,
Speaker 1: an eight and eight football team with Seattle, and the
Speaker 1: fact that they're getting it done is impressive. But I mean,
Speaker 1: we know that in the NFL. We see that a
Speaker 1: lot of the reason the Rams are a one lost
Speaker 1: team and so good against this so not good against
Speaker 1: the spread, where Kansas City is pretty much the same
Speaker 1: one loss more um but did so well against the
Speaker 1: spread because we saw one coming, we didn't see the
Speaker 1: other coming. So I mean, I think that's why Seattle
Speaker 1: has been so impressive, at least spread wise. Now with
Speaker 1: that said, um our listeners are in for a tree
Speaker 1: because I absolutely love these primetime games this week Saturday,
Speaker 1: Sunday Night and Monday Night football, and yeah, you gotta
Speaker 1: come out double fisted all on both these games. I
Speaker 1: love Minnesota in this spot against Seattle, and I'm gonna
Speaker 1: continue right off for what Marco said, because nailed it. Um.
Speaker 1: With Minnesota, it's pretty simple, you run the football. If
Speaker 1: they could run the football, they're gonna have success. And
Speaker 1: they just don't run enough. But against the Seattle defense,
Speaker 1: here's the defense you could run the football against. I
Speaker 1: mean home they allow five point six yards per rushing
Speaker 1: attempt and five point one overall. UM. So I mean
Speaker 1: this is a team you could easily run on it.
Speaker 1: And then you look at Seattle, and Marco nailed it again.
Speaker 1: For Seattle to have success, they have to run the
Speaker 1: football and that's what they've done, running it for thirty
Speaker 1: plus time in five of the last seven games. And
Speaker 1: more importantly, that's allowed them to protect the football. They
Speaker 1: only have three turnovers in their last seven games. Um.
Speaker 1: Never had more than one in any of those. Where
Speaker 1: you look at Minnesota, it's turnovers has been costly for them.
Speaker 1: This is a team that's had two or more turnovers
Speaker 1: in five of their last seven games. So they just
Speaker 1: haven't been protecting the football. So we're gonna do on
Speaker 1: Monday night. I think they will listen, shut down this
Speaker 1: Seattle running game a little bit and forced them to throw.
Speaker 1: They're gonna be in some trouble, especially against a Minnesota
Speaker 1: defense which doesn't allow quarterbacks to do all that much.
Speaker 1: I mean, I look over to the last seven ten games.
Speaker 1: Other than New England putting up three hundred against them,
Speaker 1: Arizona put up two hundred. No one else even broke
Speaker 1: two hundred in their last seven games. Um So, for me,
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna give some troubles to that Seattle offense.
Speaker 1: I love the three and a half. I like the
Speaker 1: three and I think this has money line sprinkle written
Speaker 1: all over it. I don't think you're gonna eat points
Speaker 1: at all. Just take Minnesota to get that win in Seattle.
Speaker 1: You know what's funny what no one talks about? And
Speaker 1: I had to throw this out real quick. Where's all
Speaker 1: this talk with the Seattle home field advantage? Home field advantage?
Speaker 1: You ever noticed? Home field advantage only matters when teams
Speaker 1: are good they have a good home field advantage, and
Speaker 1: then when they suck, we say, oh, their home field
Speaker 1: advantage sucks. And then when they're real good at home again. Oh,
Speaker 1: they have great home field advantage. I mean, think about it.
Speaker 1: No one's been talking about When was the last time
Speaker 1: anyone's talking about Seattle's home field advantage? We used to
Speaker 1: have years ago. We used to a guy who came
Speaker 1: on this show who used to harp on things like that.
Speaker 1: If I can only remember his name, I'm telling it.
Speaker 1: What's happened now we don't know longer talk about that.
Speaker 1: It's always like, you know, how how great a team's
Speaker 1: home field advantages or how much it sucks. Um, But
Speaker 1: it's all reflective of the record. They have a good
Speaker 1: record this year, they're probably gonna have a good home
Speaker 1: field advantage. So, I mean, most of that is just nonsense.
Speaker 1: You hear too much home field advantage talk, and to me,
Speaker 1: it's pretty much the same round. If they're having a
Speaker 1: good season, they're probably gonna have a pretty good season
Speaker 1: at home. Right, what's gonna do? What's gonna change? All right?
Speaker 1: Two very strong votes from Minnesota. I'm with you both.
Speaker 1: You get a hook there? Well, yeah, um, Minnesota plus
Speaker 1: the three and a half would be wonderful. There still
Speaker 1: are some out there, certainly some in town. Nugget when
Speaker 1: coast stations. There's a lot of three and a half
Speaker 1: far away places. Let's see what we got out there
Speaker 1: for far and away places. Not as many, not as many, Oh, Chris,
Speaker 1: though bookmakers got three and a half out there. Let
Speaker 1: me run and make that right now, hold on, please
Speaker 1: make that bet while you guys are telling serious after
Speaker 1: you gave me all that shit about me saying they
Speaker 1: haven't beaten a winning team. Because because that's not because
Speaker 1: that's not the reason, that's not the reason for why
Speaker 1: I'm doing it. I think your reasoning is flawed because
Speaker 1: you went after the Seahawks, and I think I eloquently
Speaker 1: explained what their schedule. To quote a great guy that's
Speaker 1: been on this podcast almost every week, there as a
Speaker 1: three dollar wow. Indeed, who is who would say such
Speaker 1: a thing? I wonder, UMC Marco, would you like to
Speaker 1: hear about my fantasy football team? Or do you want
Speaker 1: to take a pass on that? Can you have thirty
Speaker 1: seconds series? Okay, there is a numbers game, Gil, you know,
Speaker 1: all down to business. You know you tune in, you
Speaker 1: know every weekday from seven to nine Pacific, and you
Speaker 1: know all that stuff. Visa, you know you forgot to
Speaker 1: plug yourself deal, so I'll do that for you. I
Speaker 1: know you're slipping, but then you uh, then you have
Speaker 1: megapod Gill a little more laid back, you know and
Speaker 1: correcting jokes and everything. Then there's Monday Night Deal. He's
Speaker 1: you know, he's fun, he's eating, you know, he's eating
Speaker 1: with us, he's doing breakfast burritos during the game and
Speaker 1: everything else. And then there's the fourth and last Gil.
Speaker 1: You know, this one doesn't come out that often, and
Speaker 1: thank god he is a knutser the new Fantasy Gilt, yes,
Speaker 1: and uh, you know what that other than you know,
Speaker 1: the product that actually was on the screen with the
Speaker 1: Washington Redskins Monday, that was painful. Painful Fantasy Gil came
Speaker 1: out because once Mark Santez got in that game, it
Speaker 1: was like, where am I really gonna watch this? Like
Speaker 1: we're gonna win this game? Like any Redskin bets are
Speaker 1: gonna cash. And let me just explain, it doesn't come out,
Speaker 1: but it came out because I engineered. Let me use
Speaker 1: that word because it sounds powerful. I engineered a one
Speaker 1: in five fantasy football team to a seven and six
Speaker 1: record and into my fantasy playoffs, knocking Clay Travis out.
Speaker 1: May I just say that, which is of course a
Speaker 1: metaphor for good overcoming evil and uh. And in the
Speaker 1: playoffs now as the team, the proverbial team that no
Speaker 1: one wants to play, so we'll see what happens. I
Speaker 1: just wanted to point that, and the way I got
Speaker 1: in was just by like two points. It was dramatic.
Speaker 1: So anyway, I apologize, Marco Um. You know, I say
Speaker 1: very nice things about you, but clearly you don't feel
Speaker 1: that way about me. So let's move on to the
Speaker 1: Sunday night game, just messing with you. Uh, we have
Speaker 1: a flexed game Rams at the Bears, Rams favored by
Speaker 1: three on the road. Mitch Trabinsky is a go Mitch
Speaker 1: Drabinsky is playing and Bears fans everywhere should be rejoicing
Speaker 1: in that because Chase Daniel not good at football, not
Speaker 1: good at all. Rams with the Lions. They end up covering,
Speaker 1: even though Todd Gurley messed around for a little bit
Speaker 1: north the two minute warning where he was like, yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna score yet, let's see what happens. But
Speaker 1: they do end up winning by fourteen thirty sixteen. They
Speaker 1: cover against the Lions. Bears force overtime miraculously against the
Speaker 1: Giants and then losing overtime by a field goal that
Speaker 1: would have been if the If the Bears had pulled
Speaker 1: that off, that would have been one of the most
Speaker 1: ridiculous wins in the in the modern day history of
Speaker 1: the NFL. The Bears had six fumbles in that game
Speaker 1: and lost one of them, and they fumbled three times
Speaker 1: on that last drive and recovered all of them. Like,
Speaker 1: it's just amazing that they would have had the possibility
Speaker 1: of winning that game anyway, they didn't. Giants win. Bears
Speaker 1: are eating for they leave the NFC North. Rams have
Speaker 1: already clinched the NFC West. But of course the Rams
Speaker 1: trying to get the best record throughout the playoffs in
Speaker 1: the National Football Conference. Marco Ago, you look at this
Speaker 1: one and obviously the Rams with their flashy offense, and
Speaker 1: I'll steal one of the lines that I know that
Speaker 1: the v R will come with. You know, styles make
Speaker 1: fights and everything, and you talk about it here. This
Speaker 1: is the classic. You've got an offensive team against the
Speaker 1: defensive team, and which one's gonna you know, win? Out here.
Speaker 1: I look at the Rams scheduling lies. They're in a negative.
Speaker 1: They're playing their second consecutive week on the road. UH.
Speaker 1: Last week on the road. Uh, they played indoors at Detroit,
Speaker 1: didn't have to deal with any weather elements and didn't
Speaker 1: really have to deal with a football team either because
Speaker 1: the Lions, UM have not done anything. And this game,
Speaker 1: like we talked about an earlier game in Lay, in
Speaker 1: the third quarter, this was a three point game and
Speaker 1: then Stafford does what Stafford does. It throws a pick.
Speaker 1: UH sets the Rams up, and then the Rams get
Speaker 1: the two touchdown margin and UH kill me and UH
Speaker 1: play that I had on the Lions. And I'm shaking
Speaker 1: my head while I did debt, but I did. I
Speaker 1: just thought it was a horrible spot in between the
Speaker 1: Kansas City game in this Chicago game. Now they've got
Speaker 1: to come back play in the Windy City night game
Speaker 1: gonna be you know, a little chillier at night obviously
Speaker 1: in the Windy City. I like the defense here to
Speaker 1: win over the Rams have not been super impressive on
Speaker 1: the road. UM, this is a defense that gives up
Speaker 1: a lot of points. I know, it's it's hard to
Speaker 1: say not been super impressive because the team, you know,
Speaker 1: only has the loss to uh the to the Saints.
Speaker 1: But They've given up a lot of points, and I
Speaker 1: don't see Chicago being able to win a shootout, but
Speaker 1: I see Chicago being able to slow them down enough.
Speaker 1: And Trabinsky back in the lineup is the X factor. Um,
Speaker 1: he's a bigger threat at this point of his career
Speaker 1: with his feet than he is with his arm. But
Speaker 1: he has had some good games and he traded points
Speaker 1: with New England earlier in the year, a game that
Speaker 1: was you know, thirty thirty one. They went toe to
Speaker 1: toe with them yardage wise, they outgained the Patriots, but
Speaker 1: a couple of special teams plays turned that game around
Speaker 1: for the Patriots. I think Chicago gets the win here. Um,
Speaker 1: I like them is the home dog here. Uh, playing
Speaker 1: in Chicago in December for you know, warm weather team
Speaker 1: advantaged Chicago. Scheduling back to back weeks on the road.
Speaker 1: Advantage Chicago. Let's go ahead and take them. For what
Speaker 1: is seems like an endless array of statement games for
Speaker 1: the Bears, this is their last statement game, uh, in
Speaker 1: front of a national audience. I'm gonna go ahead and
Speaker 1: go with them. Take Chicago outright, twenty seven to three.
Speaker 1: Score rams catching a bit of a break. It's gonna
Speaker 1: be at least here as we do this Thursday morning
Speaker 1: forecast calling for thirty four degrees at night. During that
Speaker 1: game in Chicago Soldier Field, Sunday night game that was
Speaker 1: flexed in by the way the Steelers and the Raiders
Speaker 1: was the game that was flexed out. And again about
Speaker 1: that Todd Gurley play. Girlely converted the third down late
Speaker 1: in the game against the Lines, and after breaking free,
Speaker 1: chose not to score to run more time off the
Speaker 1: clock force Detroit take time outs, and ultimately proved to
Speaker 1: be a good move because Girley ran for a two
Speaker 1: yard score with one fifty four left and the Lines
Speaker 1: were left with no time outs on their final drive,
Speaker 1: so Girley knew what Girley was doing. Bettors wanted to
Speaker 1: kill him at that moment who had the rams, but
Speaker 1: ended up working out for them anyway. He said, quote
Speaker 1: I wanted to waste some time unquote yeah, I like
Speaker 1: this Sunday night game day. I'm not even gonna waste
Speaker 1: the listeners time. They just want the winner. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: give it to you right now, Chicago Bears. Take the points.
Speaker 1: You're not gonna meet them, but take it because it's
Speaker 1: generous and also we bet the under at fifty four
Speaker 1: and also add uh fifty three as I look, Yes,
Speaker 1: so those are legit moves on the under. A couple
Speaker 1: of groups hit those I agree with them, but but
Speaker 1: I really like Chicago in this spot. Also, Uh, I'm
Speaker 1: high on this Rams team. I talked about them a
Speaker 1: lot why they're not covering spreads, but I think there's
Speaker 1: a good spot for Chicago coming off back to back
Speaker 1: road games now at home, um and listen, they again
Speaker 1: this is a team that unfortunately turned the ball over
Speaker 1: a little too much for my liking. Uh, but I
Speaker 1: so like how they produced turnovers with Chicago. UM, that's
Speaker 1: why they've given us some points. But I think this
Speaker 1: total was a little bit too high because you're paying
Speaker 1: more for the names, um than anything else. And Marco's
Speaker 1: right styles make fights and they make games as well.
Speaker 1: And I think the Rams are gonna have some trouble
Speaker 1: on offense here. I mean, as efficient as they are offensively,
Speaker 1: they've done their most damage UM when they're not one dimensional,
Speaker 1: when they've been able to run successfully, and that's always
Speaker 1: how them throw the ball successfully. But I don't think
Speaker 1: they're gonna be able to run on this defense that
Speaker 1: allows only eighty six yards per game on the ground,
Speaker 1: and more importantly only sixty six at home. At three
Speaker 1: point one yards per rushing attent, You're not gonna run
Speaker 1: on this defense. And any time I say you become
Speaker 1: one dimensional makes it easier for defenses, even against an
Speaker 1: offense as efficient as the Los Angeles Rams. Again, I
Speaker 1: like Chicago in this spot, no reason to take up
Speaker 1: more time. I think the points are a gift, and
Speaker 1: I'm going to go ahead and and take Chicago and
Speaker 1: the under in what should be a much lower scoring
Speaker 1: game than that total reflects. So give me the Bears.
Speaker 1: I'm on board with Marco fifty one and a half
Speaker 1: consensus on the total, right there, Tim, Uh, Yeah, obviously
Speaker 1: this is probably it's possibly my favorite game of the
Speaker 1: of the week from a fans perspective, when I'm really
Speaker 1: interested in in watching um, even even with the good
Speaker 1: Seahawks game of the following nights. Uh. The the angle
Speaker 1: that I'm looking at on this one, Gil, going back
Speaker 1: to some props, I'm I'm interested to see what they're
Speaker 1: gonna set Todd Gurley's rushing yards. Uh for going up
Speaker 1: against that that great Chicago run defense. That just gave
Speaker 1: up a hundred twenty five yards to stay Kwon Barkley. Um,
Speaker 1: I'm kind of hoping that there ma that uh they
Speaker 1: lower it a little bits, uh, but maybe a chance
Speaker 1: for the over. But if Todd Reerley gets too much credit, UM,
Speaker 1: I may be even looking for the under on on
Speaker 1: believing in that Bears defense. But the next step if
Speaker 1: I don't like anything that Todd Gurley is giving, if
Speaker 1: I think that that line set, I'm gonna be looking
Speaker 1: at Jared Goffe's completions. Um. In games where they've had,
Speaker 1: where they've played uh, some quality run defenses, Todd Gurley
Speaker 1: has been held to under a hundred yards and Jared
Speaker 1: Goff's completions have gone uh north of twenty three. So uh,
Speaker 1: Todd Gurley rushing yards and Jared goff completions are going
Speaker 1: to be the two player of props. And I'm looking
Speaker 1: towards uh. And I'm probably gonna include the Bears and
Speaker 1: a couple of my teasers teasing the Bears to nine
Speaker 1: or ten depending on a six point seven point teaser.
Speaker 1: We're six and a half a night and f I'd
Speaker 1: go seven. Yeah, a lot of teaser opportunities Minnesota. Also
Speaker 1: UM again as a dog at Seattle. Pretty darn tempting
Speaker 1: as well, even though again you're going through the UH
Speaker 1: seven and perhaps the ten if you do a seven
Speaker 1: pointer as well as opposed to three and seven that is,
Speaker 1: but still huge on that one. Let's do Sunday Day games.
Speaker 1: Dibbs to you, Ace, what you got? This is so difficult,
Speaker 1: I swear I feel I could get out four sides
Speaker 1: and four totals and then feel confident about turning a profit. Uh.
Speaker 1: Narrowing it down. I'm gonna go ahead and uh go
Speaker 1: to New Orleans at Tampa Bay, just because this is
Speaker 1: a game I like to side and the total. We're
Speaker 1: gonna use the side for our best bet, but I'll
Speaker 1: give the total out as well. This is one we
Speaker 1: bet the total real quickly. Already bet deondre. Bet deondre
Speaker 1: at fifty six UM with New Orleans Tampa Bay. It's
Speaker 1: why I's sitting at fifty five fifty five and a
Speaker 1: half right now. I like Tampa getting the points as well.
Speaker 1: And the number one reason for that is this UM revenge.
Speaker 1: That's going to be the talk revenge for the Saints
Speaker 1: for losing game one. UM of the season to this
Speaker 1: same Tampa Bay team that, let's not forget New Orleans
Speaker 1: was a ten point favorite against them at home. At home,
Speaker 1: they were ten, and now they're eight and a half
Speaker 1: on the road even nine at some spots. UM doesn't
Speaker 1: make sense, specially when they're doing exactly what they're supposed
Speaker 1: to do. And this is what I mean by why
Speaker 1: bring up what were the season win totals? You look
Speaker 1: at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, exactly where they're supposed to be,
Speaker 1: pretty much right. The season win total was six and
Speaker 1: a half with the over favor that went off six
Speaker 1: and a half with the younger favor their five and seven,
Speaker 1: right where they should be. You look at New Orleans,
Speaker 1: a team that we were really high on coming into
Speaker 1: the season. I bet all those futures on they've come
Speaker 1: through already hit their season win total over um. But again,
Speaker 1: they're they're doing pretty much what they're supposed to. Maybe
Speaker 1: they should be at nine and three right now, one
Speaker 1: more win based on that. But with that said, this line,
Speaker 1: if you compare it, and again so many games have passed,
Speaker 1: but still the fact that these teams are doing what
Speaker 1: they're supposed to, and yet this point spread when compared
Speaker 1: to that Week one game, not much of adjustment, even
Speaker 1: though it's being played at a completely different location. Um.
Speaker 1: So for me, there's line value there automatically, And and
Speaker 1: it's no surprise you're not going to get New Orleans
Speaker 1: at any discount just because they didn't cover against the
Speaker 1: Dallas Cowboys on Thursday Night football. When you cover as
Speaker 1: many games as they did in a row, believe me
Speaker 1: that that taste is left in the book's mouth, just
Speaker 1: like it's left in the better's mouth. And how we
Speaker 1: say betters remember what they saw last, rest of short books,
Speaker 1: remember who hurt them last. So knowing New Orleans been
Speaker 1: one of those teams that they know is going to
Speaker 1: get action on Sunday and you're not going to get
Speaker 1: them at a discount. Um. And I think this is
Speaker 1: one of those spots where where that really holds true.
Speaker 1: And let's not forget man. I mean, Tampa's played them
Speaker 1: tough in Tampa Bay. They beat them there last year
Speaker 1: at six point home underdogs. They beat them there in
Speaker 1: also straight up, Um, they play they play New Orleans
Speaker 1: tomp I mean you look at the last hand four
Speaker 1: games they really show up against the New Orleans Saints.
Speaker 1: I think only once in the last five have they
Speaker 1: lost by more than this point spread um And again,
Speaker 1: I always say this about Tampa They could go down
Speaker 1: the field and score on anybody when it doesn't matter.
Speaker 1: And when that's the case, that back door stays open
Speaker 1: for a team like this. I'll take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Speaker 1: Give me the eight, eight and a half, whatever it is.
Speaker 1: I don't think we're gonna need it. They'll keep it
Speaker 1: within a touchdown. Well, I sprinkle, why not they beat
Speaker 1: them once? They could beat them again? And I always
Speaker 1: sprinkle if I'm gonna bet it, so my money's on
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay plus two points and the under double sprinkle
Speaker 1: on the show. New Orleans giving eight at Tampa Bay
Speaker 1: this week, ten days after their debacle at Dallas, they
Speaker 1: were giving seven against the Cowboys. That was the most
Speaker 1: bizarre performance of the entire football season in terms of Okay,
Speaker 1: I get it. Maybe you thought the Cowboys wouldn't cover,
Speaker 1: maybe even thought the Cowboys are gonna win. But good lord,
Speaker 1: if I told you before that game the Cowboys were
Speaker 1: going to score thirteen points, how much of your bank
Speaker 1: account would you have unloaded on the New Orleans Saints
Speaker 1: headed into that game. Crazy performance from the Saints. We'll
Speaker 1: see how they do against the Bucks. Aces taken the
Speaker 1: points with Jamis Winston, who, by the way, last week
Speaker 1: filled up statuet very nicely twenty thirty for two forty
Speaker 1: nine two touchdowns. Note picks five carries for forty eight
Speaker 1: yards as well for Jamis in that ball game for
Speaker 1: the Bucks. Timmy, what you got? Uh? So I'm actually
Speaker 1: gonna piggyback off of Ace and go with that same game.
Speaker 1: It's it's a It's a game that I um that
Speaker 1: I'm looking looking towards, and it's probably the only game
Speaker 1: that I'm probably been in the side I look. I
Speaker 1: think that if you're the New Orleans Saints and you
Speaker 1: know that you you're fighting to possibly have to get
Speaker 1: that first place spot in the inn the NFC. Uh.
Speaker 1: Not only is this like a is this a revenge
Speaker 1: game based on early in the season against the Bucks,
Speaker 1: but this is definitely a uh no, we really are
Speaker 1: better than most of you. In response to how they performed,
Speaker 1: uh in Dallas what had been it was like what
Speaker 1: Drew Brees is like second worst performance in half a
Speaker 1: decade or something like that. Um, it's I think Drew
Speaker 1: Brees is gonna come out firing. That Tampa defense uh
Speaker 1: leaves much to be desired. UM, anybody who listens to
Speaker 1: my podcast, it's probably laughing right now because I gushed
Speaker 1: about the Saints last week and then of course they
Speaker 1: uh they completely dropped the ball on on on performing.
Speaker 1: But I like them again this week. I've there They're
Speaker 1: gonna be in all of my teasers. I've probably gonna
Speaker 1: take the I may pass on the on the side
Speaker 1: because I missed the best missed the best number, but uh,
Speaker 1: it was I teased it right away with a number
Speaker 1: of other games like uh like with the Chiefs and
Speaker 1: UH and the Bears. UM. But I'm definitely going back
Speaker 1: to some player props. I am looking at Trey Kwan Smith. Um,
Speaker 1: I'm looking at his receptions. He has sort of uh
Speaker 1: he had, he had an egg and then he had
Speaker 1: a huge game and then he didn't perform well. But
Speaker 1: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are are an inefficient passing defense,
Speaker 1: and especially against number of the wide receiver one and two.
Speaker 1: UH trade Kuwan Smith often is undervalued because his name
Speaker 1: is that Michael Thomas in UH player props, and so
Speaker 1: I usually you can usually get a lot of value,
Speaker 1: especially on the receptions over under on receptions um and
Speaker 1: then going on the other way. Uh. The New Orleans
Speaker 1: Saints are actually the most inefficient defense against a wide
Speaker 1: receiver too, according to our friends over at Football Outsiders.
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna be if Deshan Jackson apparently he didn't
Speaker 1: he didn't practice uh um, I think yesterday with a thumb,
Speaker 1: assuming he's good to go, I'm gonna definitely be looking
Speaker 1: at Deshan Jackson for all sorts of player props on
Speaker 1: on uh not on receptions uh past receiving yards and
Speaker 1: then probably even longest longest reception I think, because this
Speaker 1: could turn turn into a a shootout with Tampa Bay
Speaker 1: trying to keep up, I think they're gonna go deep
Speaker 1: a few times into Sean Jackson could be the beneficiary
Speaker 1: of that. Alright, Football Outsiders backing up a lot of
Speaker 1: what Timmy saying. New Orleans. By the way, Drew Brees
Speaker 1: last Thursday night, eighteen of twenty eight for one twenty
Speaker 1: seven eighteen of twenty eight, one seven, one touchdown, one pick,
Speaker 1: one hundred and seventies six total yards of offense for
Speaker 1: the Saints a week after Thanksgiving. And remember all those
Speaker 1: stats about how few third three and ounce they've had
Speaker 1: all season long. They were three of eleven on third
Speaker 1: downs in that game against the Cowboys, Cowboys winning it
Speaker 1: again thirteen ten. Marco, Which way you're going on Sunday
Speaker 1: going ugly? Guys going ugly. We're going to head out
Speaker 1: West Detroit in Arizona. This might have been a game. Hey,
Speaker 1: what's the one game you don't want to play? Exactly
Speaker 1: what I was thinking, Yeah, this could be a great one.
Speaker 1: But you know what, it has been a bad, bad
Speaker 1: run for our Johnny Detroit's Detroit Lions. They just finished
Speaker 1: three games in a row at home and you're saying, okay,
Speaker 1: they you know, crap the bed at home. Why you
Speaker 1: want him on the road. You know what, when things
Speaker 1: are going as bad as they are going, there's the
Speaker 1: best place to be is away from home. You don't
Speaker 1: have to listen to the local talk shows, you don't
Speaker 1: have to read the local newspapers. Get on the road,
Speaker 1: just play a game. And I think that's the best
Speaker 1: thing for the Lions. And let's face it, Arizona. Last
Speaker 1: week's win against Green Bay was that the ugliest performance
Speaker 1: you ever saw from an NFL team, UM, Aaron Rodgers.
Speaker 1: Uh you know, if he's heart wise, he even playing
Speaker 1: all right? Uh you know, if we're gonna go with
Speaker 1: that card. This is a team to me last week
Speaker 1: that mailed everything in after what it happened the last
Speaker 1: few weeks and then the discontent uh with the Aaron
Speaker 1: Rodgers and UH coach McCarthy and everything that unfolded after
Speaker 1: that game. I'm not putting any stock in the Arizona win.
Speaker 1: This is the team. Last week they were able to
Speaker 1: put up a hundred and eighty two yards on the ground.
Speaker 1: That's their offense passing wise the last three weeks, uh
Speaker 1: Josh Rosen a hundred twenty eight yards passing, eighty seven
Speaker 1: yards passing dred and thirty three uh net yards. No,
Speaker 1: I'm not going with Arizona here. I'm gonna take Detroit
Speaker 1: if they have any pride at all to show up
Speaker 1: in dismantle a bad Arizona football team. If they have
Speaker 1: any pride at all, That is the caveat Marco that
Speaker 1: it's the one thing. They've lost five of six have
Speaker 1: the Lions since Uh they had a winning record back
Speaker 1: in late October. If you can believe that another four
Speaker 1: and eight. That's not good, Josh Rosen, As you said,
Speaker 1: eleven for one forty nine last week. But third and
Speaker 1: what was it, third and twenty three? You know that
Speaker 1: was the that was the big play of the game.
Speaker 1: Cardinals patchwork offensive line Rosen hits Larry Fitzgerald for sliding
Speaker 1: thirty two yard completion helped set up Zane gonzalez Is
Speaker 1: game winning forty four yard field goal with one forty
Speaker 1: one left against the Packers. Eventually, it was game winning
Speaker 1: because Mason Crosby missing a forty nine yard attempt as
Speaker 1: time expired. By way, that's what I say about the
Speaker 1: Mike McCarthy firing that that I haven't heard anybody else say,
Speaker 1: which is because everybody's debating, Oh is it respectful to
Speaker 1: do it now and not, you know, even at the
Speaker 1: end of the season. Here's my question. If Mason Crosby
Speaker 1: makes that field goal, is he not fired? Like? How
Speaker 1: result oriented is that? You know? I that's the point
Speaker 1: that I can't get over. It's like, oh, it's because
Speaker 1: he missed the field goal. Again, you got so upset
Speaker 1: that you decided to fire him then in there anyway,
Speaker 1: just a thought before we get too thoughts on Thursday
Speaker 1: game and the final two questions. Remember, as always, support
Speaker 1: for today's show brought to you by the good folks
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Speaker 1: You know what else you can do with Bookmaker was
Speaker 1: that at half time of a bad bet, you can
Speaker 1: get out of it, you know, like Monday night when
Speaker 1: you know people were jumping out of that Washington bet
Speaker 1: and you know, getting out with Philadelphia you can do that,
Speaker 1: you know that, right? Yeah, as I was contemplating, I
Speaker 1: was like, shoot, I bet Philadelphia minus four and a
Speaker 1: half here. Yeah, because I had I had watched listen
Speaker 1: to Marco. Look how gleefully is. He's like he's like,
Speaker 1: he's like he's making I got out. You sat there,
Speaker 1: you know. I tried to lead you down the promised
Speaker 1: rail there, buddy, you were you were too busy with that.
Speaker 1: It was my idea, as I recalled, But I was like, yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna mess around with it. And I should have,
Speaker 1: but I was, of course, uh too much into my
Speaker 1: fantasy football team that I was kind of distracted. So anyway,
Speaker 1: thank you Zach Brown on fourth and goal. That's all
Speaker 1: I have to say. What if I send Zach Brown
Speaker 1: a fruit basket with a note attached and just said, hey, man,
Speaker 1: I just want to thank you for getting my fantasy
Speaker 1: football team. Man, what do you think you would say
Speaker 1: to that? He'd be like, what the hell is this guy?
Speaker 1: Who is that? Who the hell is that? What is
Speaker 1: the fruit basket? Alright? Thursday? And I thought it's not
Speaker 1: very sexy, but it's Jacksonville at Tennessee. Tennessee is favored
Speaker 1: by five and a half. It means a lot to
Speaker 1: Tennessee because they're six and six and they're in the
Speaker 1: scrum for the wild card second wild card spot in
Speaker 1: the a f C. The total, to me here is
Speaker 1: the most interesting thing. The total is thirty seven. This
Speaker 1: to me feels like and I've said this before on
Speaker 1: some other games, this to me feels like the artificial
Speaker 1: floor that we often see in baseball where there was
Speaker 1: always a time in baseball where no totals would be
Speaker 1: posted below sevens That were very rare. You know, do
Speaker 1: you never even see a six? Then after that and
Speaker 1: then like only in recent times have you seen five
Speaker 1: and a half. And I always used to say, like
Speaker 1: during the playoffs, I remember it was like Lindsey comin
Speaker 1: Oswalt where they wouldn't put it below six, and I
Speaker 1: always just say this is an artificial flour. They just
Speaker 1: won't go lower than this. This feels to me in
Speaker 1: an era now where the average NFL totals are in
Speaker 1: the high forties, this thirty seven is particularly low. I
Speaker 1: don't think it's low enough. Curious as to your thoughts
Speaker 1: on that, you know, I agree with you, Yes, they
Speaker 1: can't in today's market, they can't go any lower than this.
Speaker 1: They're just because, especially with the teasers too, you know
Speaker 1: how many people are gonna tease it ger and go
Speaker 1: over and you know it could be a mistake. I mean,
Speaker 1: look last week the six nothing game. But the only
Speaker 1: thing I'm gonna point out on this game on paper,
Speaker 1: you're supposed to play Tennessee. I just find it really
Speaker 1: intriguing that we finally saw the Jacksonville defense of two
Speaker 1: thousand seven team last week, and let's face it, the
Speaker 1: cults were rolling going into there. And is it a coincidence?
Speaker 1: Does anybody tech the coincidence that the defense came to
Speaker 1: play the first week that they actually benched Blake Bortles.
Speaker 1: This was the locker room that I think was being
Speaker 1: fractured offensive versus defensive. The defensive guys were tired of
Speaker 1: carrying the team, tired of the Blake Bortles. You know scenario,
Speaker 1: They finally bench them and they get a big game.
Speaker 1: This is a primetime game for a team that has
Speaker 1: nothing to play for. I've talked about it many many times.
Speaker 1: If they're gonna come to play, this is the game
Speaker 1: they come to play for. So if you put the
Speaker 1: old gun to my head, and that's the beauty. If
Speaker 1: we don't off the bed every game, but the gun
Speaker 1: to my head, I would lean to Jacksonville. Yeah. I
Speaker 1: haven't bet this game, just to be completely honest with
Speaker 1: our listeners. Not a game I really love. But I
Speaker 1: agree with Marco. Um, I'm not high on this Tennessee team.
Speaker 1: Not comfortable lane the points, not sure why this line's
Speaker 1: going up. But again, not a game that I have
Speaker 1: touched so far. Uh. Yeah, I I agree with everything
Speaker 1: that's been said. I especially agree with I don't think
Speaker 1: this is under is low enough. I think I think
Speaker 1: we're running back, is gonna get a lot of actions.
Speaker 1: I think this is gonna be a short game. Um.
Speaker 1: And so when you when you pair that with you know,
Speaker 1: who's actually gonna score points in this game. I think
Speaker 1: that that total could even be a little bit lower.
Speaker 1: I think Derrick Henry UH, Derrick Henry under rushing yards
Speaker 1: is a player of problem. I'm looking at tonight and
Speaker 1: U with that. With that total, I may be doing
Speaker 1: some live betting. If there's a score early, I may
Speaker 1: try to take advantage of a of a spike in
Speaker 1: UH in the total and take the under UH in
Speaker 1: the in life betting, depending on how I see. But
Speaker 1: there's also a good chance skill. But I don't watch
Speaker 1: one into the there is that. I used to say
Speaker 1: that during baseball season, like a random Wednesday, uh, the
Speaker 1: games were so bad, like in July, like really horrible,
Speaker 1: you are not required to watch this major League baseball game.
Speaker 1: I would say the same about this. But I do
Speaker 1: think it's gonna be a live betting fest for me
Speaker 1: in this game tonight. Let's go to the final two questions, gentlemen,
Speaker 1: as always, by the way, before we do that, let
Speaker 1: me let me quote Jeff Fogel. Jeff Fogel, who does
Speaker 1: analytics over at Visa, is the author of the Visa
Speaker 1: City Newsletter. And never give Jeff a shout on this
Speaker 1: particular podcast, but he does something called drive points. It's
Speaker 1: his own proprietary stat. It's a Visa exclusive stat. It
Speaker 1: refers to drives of sixty yards or more. So basically
Speaker 1: you throw out short drives and you're trying to get
Speaker 1: an assessment of which offenses can sustain drives and which
Speaker 1: defenses can you not sustain drives against. Well, Jacksonville currently
Speaker 1: ranks is the fourth worst drive point offense through that
Speaker 1: lens in the NFL that tabulates point scored or allowed
Speaker 1: to get on drives of sixty yards of more, just
Speaker 1: nine point eight drive points per game this season for
Speaker 1: the Jags offense. Tennessee, on the other hand, ranks third
Speaker 1: best on defense in that stat, allowing just eleven point
Speaker 1: zero drive points per game. So basically, start with an
Speaker 1: offense that struggles in Jacksonville. Then you throw in the
Speaker 1: fact that they have a backup quarterback here in Cody Kessler,
Speaker 1: who I guess technically won his first start and the
Speaker 1: sixth nothing went over the Colts last week. He's got
Speaker 1: a short prep week here, first road game as a
Speaker 1: Jag against a pretty darn good Tennessee Titans defense at
Speaker 1: least through that prison. So just to throw that in
Speaker 1: the mix as a nod to the Tennessee side anyway
Speaker 1: in this ball game. Alright, final two questions then, as promised.
Speaker 1: First question is always which of the big favorites in
Speaker 1: your opinion is the most likely to lose? Outright? In
Speaker 1: Week fourteen? Your candidates are Kansas City Chiefs six and
Speaker 1: a half point consensus favorites at home against the Baltimore
Speaker 1: Ravens New Orleans, as we mentioned, eight point favorites on
Speaker 1: the road at Tampa Bay, New England, seven and a
Speaker 1: half point favorites on the road against my Amma Chargers,
Speaker 1: fourteen point favorites at home against since Senata and Pittsburgh
Speaker 1: ten point favorites on the road ten and a half
Speaker 1: somewhere as well, on the road at Oakland. Timmy, start
Speaker 1: with you, who's the most likely to lose that? Right?
Speaker 1: I didn't. I'm sorry if I did? You include Atlantic,
Speaker 1: include Landing. Okay, well, then I think I want to go.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go Chiefs. I think, um, I think the Ravens. Uh.
Speaker 1: I think the Ravens proven that they that they're uh
Speaker 1: you know, they could be competitive, and that they can uh,
Speaker 1: they can play. The Chiefs have had enough close games
Speaker 1: again in enough have played teams close enough in some
Speaker 1: games where I thought they'd really get some separation to
Speaker 1: show that, you know, you know, I think that there
Speaker 1: could be an opportunity for for Baltimore here. I'm not
Speaker 1: betting it, but that's my answer. Chief's first game without
Speaker 1: Kareem Hunt against the legitimate NFL football team because we're
Speaker 1: throughout the Raiders and the Raiders and the Raiders got
Speaker 1: within three late in that game last week against the Chiefs.
Speaker 1: So Kareem Hunt no longer in the league as every
Speaker 1: and he knows after TMZ showed a video of him
Speaker 1: shoving and kicking a girl and even at home, even
Speaker 1: at home against Arizona, I mean ended up being team
Speaker 1: but like they're for a good part of that game.
Speaker 1: It looks like Arizona was in it, right, And who's
Speaker 1: Arizona especially going on in Kansas City And that's with
Speaker 1: Kareem Hunt right, So um yeah, I think I think
Speaker 1: Baltimore is a live dog there. I'm gonna agree Baltimore,
Speaker 1: you've got the best defense getting a touchdown here basically,
Speaker 1: and this is gonna be I think the coming out
Speaker 1: party of Lamar Jackson. The game plan has to be
Speaker 1: to take the reins off him in this game. They
Speaker 1: can't win with him making just a handful of passes,
Speaker 1: you know, in him running the football. They're gonna have
Speaker 1: to let him go downfield. And this is the best
Speaker 1: defense for that to happen against UM And I think that, uh,
Speaker 1: if he does do that, we will officially have seen
Speaker 1: the last of Joe Flacco. I think that's probably true.
Speaker 1: My big one, I'm god, you know, I already gave
Speaker 1: ut Tampa Bay, but let's give an all one that
Speaker 1: I like, I think really has a shot of winning
Speaker 1: the game out right, and that's Miami Dompins against New England. Again,
Speaker 1: you don't get rich going against New England, but I
Speaker 1: do think this is a spot that Miami could get
Speaker 1: it done in. I grabbed the points already, and anytime
Speaker 1: I grabbed the points, I'm gonna sprinkle a little something
Speaker 1: something sprinkle, And I after losing by thirty one to
Speaker 1: them back in September, maybe Miami shows up and gets
Speaker 1: it done for us. Is that a world record? Three
Speaker 1: sprinkles on one show? I think it is Miami that
Speaker 1: has ar written all over it. Miami. Could you imagine
Speaker 1: a three team Sprinkle parlay hidden on that man, Jeremy Sprinkle.
Speaker 1: Shout out Miami by the way, six and six. They
Speaker 1: need this to they're in the scrum of teams for
Speaker 1: that wild card, that second wild card in the a
Speaker 1: f C Division game at Miami. Good choice right there.
Speaker 1: Final question, if we live in the bizarro world, you
Speaker 1: got to, uh, you had to make a pick in
Speaker 1: every one of these games on the side you got
Speaker 1: one free pass, though, which game would you pass on? Tim? Uh?
Speaker 1: You know, there's there's a there's several games here that
Speaker 1: are that are kind of ugly and that would but
Speaker 1: I think I could talk myself into at least one
Speaker 1: of those sides except four Giants Redskins. Giants Redskins. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I want no part of that game. That's that's an
Speaker 1: interesting one. When I went from Colt McCoy and Mark Stanchez,
Speaker 1: it went from one point Redskin favorite to a four
Speaker 1: point Giants through the three. Right now, it's settling in
Speaker 1: a Giants minus three and a half on the road
Speaker 1: against the sad Shiz and you're Washington Redskins, Marco, You're
Speaker 1: Washington Redskins. But I don't I wouldn't want to. I
Speaker 1: wouldn't want to back you lie either, right right? That
Speaker 1: BAMA defense is gonna be tough. Marcom Hey, for the
Speaker 1: New York Giant fans out there, got a stat for you.
Speaker 1: Think about this, chillab on this one. Odell Beckham Jr.
Speaker 1: Has to touchdown passes of forty plus yards this year.
Speaker 1: Do you know how many eli have one? None. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna go to the l A Super Charger super and
Speaker 1: say that I don't want any part of this because
Speaker 1: here's the thing. First of all, you cannot give me
Speaker 1: enough money right now to bet the Cincinnati Bengals. There
Speaker 1: there's no situation that I think I could find myself
Speaker 1: on them with unless maybe the last game of the
Speaker 1: season when they play the Steelers. If they're in a
Speaker 1: spoiler's role. Uh, this team is toast Martin Lewis's toast.
Speaker 1: But do you really want to lay double digits with
Speaker 1: the Chargers in the ultimate of sandwich games. They had
Speaker 1: the Steelers on Sunday night, and look at what they've
Speaker 1: got up in four days people, four days, Kansas City,
Speaker 1: Kansas City. I'm all about the charges. I gotta to
Speaker 1: win the a f C future on them. I think
Speaker 1: they are sneaky good, and I don't think there is
Speaker 1: a flawless team in the a f C. I really don't. Plus,
Speaker 1: I haven't met seven to one plus seven ten actually,
Speaker 1: which again I know if you parlay them through the playoffs,
Speaker 1: you'll get a number higher than that. Uh there are
Speaker 1: no more plus seven tents out there as far as
Speaker 1: I know. That was before the Steelers game. So glad
Speaker 1: I got that in my pocket because I really believe
Speaker 1: that team is when they get Melvin Gordon back to
Speaker 1: they got Bosa, They're gonna have their whole team together,
Speaker 1: probably the most balanced team in the a f C.
Speaker 1: We shall see in five the last four games straight
Speaker 1: up nineteen and five straight up? What do you not
Speaker 1: want here? Real quickly? That that four team money line
Speaker 1: parlay we touched on, which was Minnesota, Vikings, Bears, Tampa
Speaker 1: Bay and Miami actually a hundred dollars paced back like
Speaker 1: Dred just tossed it in just because we said it.
Speaker 1: What happens if it wins, um So if you guys
Speaker 1: want to follow, it will pay about for a hundre. Right,
Speaker 1: But I'm gonna go Jets versus Buffalo, uh nine, A
Speaker 1: game I want to touch Buffalo just beat them two
Speaker 1: weeks ago. Was its three weeks ago by thirty one
Speaker 1: points as seven point road dogs. Um now they're home favorite. Yeah,
Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills a home favorite. Um yeah, nothing I want
Speaker 1: to get out in front of Yeah. Yeah, watch the
Speaker 1: Jets show up for that. That's true. I don't want
Speaker 1: anything to do with that either. All right, gentlemen, we've
Speaker 1: done all we can do. Week fourteen in the National
Speaker 1: Football League. As always, thank you Marco, thank you, Ace,
Speaker 1: appreciate the time, and Tim a better life the podcast
Speaker 1: bailable everywhere that podcasts are distributed, and this weekend featuring
Speaker 1: our own Ace, so we look forward to that. Thank
Speaker 1: you all for listening, Tim, thank you appreciate it, and
Speaker 1: as always, good luck with all your bets. Week fourteen
Speaker 1: in the NFL. Thank you so much for listen.