WEBVTT - Are We Living in a Simulation? (feat. Nick Bostrom) 0:00:00.680 --> 0:00:03.880 Hi, Welcome to Science Stuff, a production of iHeartRadio. My 0:00:04.000 --> 0:00:06.480 name is Jorge cham and today we're asking the question 0:00:07.000 --> 0:00:10.640 are we living in a simulation? Are you and I 0:00:10.880 --> 0:00:14.160 real people? Or are we characters in a fake video 0:00:14.200 --> 0:00:19.079 game put on by an advanced alien civilization. Believe it 0:00:19.160 --> 0:00:21.919 or not, this is a possibility that is actually being 0:00:22.000 --> 0:00:26.800 considered and discussed by really smart philosophers and scientists. We're 0:00:26.840 --> 0:00:28.680 going to talk to the man who first proposed this 0:00:28.680 --> 0:00:32.839 philosophical argument, and we'll talk to a quantum information scientist 0:00:33.120 --> 0:00:35.240 who thinks he knows how to tell if we're living 0:00:35.280 --> 0:00:38.680 in a computer or not. So whether you're simulated or real, 0:00:39.159 --> 0:00:41.880 join us as we break the code and answer the 0:00:41.960 --> 0:00:45.080 question are we living in a simulation? 0:00:50.159 --> 0:00:50.360 Hi? 0:00:50.400 --> 0:00:53.880 Everyone, Okay, we're going to do something different today, and 0:00:53.960 --> 0:00:56.000 that is we're going to give you a choice. In 0:00:56.040 --> 0:00:59.480 this episode, there's an argument that none of this and 0:00:59.520 --> 0:01:03.120 none of us us are real. But as Morphius said 0:01:03.120 --> 0:01:06.240 in the Matrix movies, not everyone is ready to hear 0:01:06.440 --> 0:01:09.240 the truth. So we're going to offer you a red 0:01:09.280 --> 0:01:12.520 pill and a blue pill. If you take the red pill, 0:01:12.800 --> 0:01:15.360 you will hear the argument for the idea that we're 0:01:15.400 --> 0:01:18.679 living in a simulation, and if you're convinced, as many 0:01:18.720 --> 0:01:22.800 smart people are, it's going to turn your world upside down. 0:01:23.520 --> 0:01:25.800 But if you take the blue pill, then you'll hear 0:01:25.840 --> 0:01:29.160 the argument against the idea we're all living in a simulation, 0:01:29.600 --> 0:01:31.760 and you can go back to the life you've been living, 0:01:32.240 --> 0:01:35.319 even if it's all a lie. And then later on 0:01:35.360 --> 0:01:38.160 we're going to offer you a third pill, a purple pill, 0:01:38.720 --> 0:01:41.320 but that's going to come later. So here's your choice 0:01:41.319 --> 0:01:44.080 for now. To take the red pill, skip to the 0:01:44.080 --> 0:01:48.400 next chapter and hopefully your podcast player recognizes chapter markers, 0:01:49.160 --> 0:01:53.080 or just keep listening and you'll hear why some scholars 0:01:53.120 --> 0:01:56.320 think we're living inside a computer. Or to take the 0:01:56.400 --> 0:02:00.200 blue pill and be reassured you're a real person. Kip 0:02:00.240 --> 0:02:03.200 ahead two chapters. We go to after the first ad 0:02:03.240 --> 0:02:06.040 break at about the middle of the episode, and you'll 0:02:06.080 --> 0:02:09.200 jump straight to the argument against the idea we're living 0:02:09.280 --> 0:02:12.760 in a simulation. All right, pause the episode if you 0:02:12.800 --> 0:02:15.360 have to. I'll give you a second to make your choice, 0:02:16.160 --> 0:02:23.240 And here we go the red pill, Why we are 0:02:23.280 --> 0:02:27.360 probably living in a simulation. One of the first mentions 0:02:27.400 --> 0:02:30.080 of this idea is in a nineteen sixty four science 0:02:30.080 --> 0:02:34.400 fiction novel called Simulacron three. In the book, a man 0:02:34.480 --> 0:02:37.760 named Douglas Hall helps create a computer simulation of a 0:02:37.800 --> 0:02:40.839 city filled with simulated people who think they are real 0:02:40.880 --> 0:02:45.560 people as a platform to do marketing research. But when 0:02:45.560 --> 0:02:48.480 strange events happen to him and his coworkers, he starts 0:02:48.480 --> 0:02:51.680 to realize that he is living in a computer simulation. 0:02:52.200 --> 0:02:55.040 He's a computer program and the simulation he was working 0:02:55.080 --> 0:02:58.680 on is a simulation inside of another simulation. But the 0:02:58.720 --> 0:03:01.239 reason this idea has been so talked about in recent 0:03:01.360 --> 0:03:05.000 years is due to a man named Nick Bostrom. Doctor 0:03:05.040 --> 0:03:08.440 Boston is a philosopher and former professor at Oxford University 0:03:08.639 --> 0:03:11.600 who published the paper in the Philosophical Quarterly in two 0:03:11.639 --> 0:03:15.560 thousand and three titled Are We Living in a Computer Simulation? 0:03:16.120 --> 0:03:19.040 In which he presented his argument that the most rational 0:03:19.120 --> 0:03:21.920 thing for humans to do is to assume that we 0:03:22.080 --> 0:03:25.480 are living in a simulation created by an advanced species 0:03:25.520 --> 0:03:30.520 of humans or aliens. The argument is so persuasive that 0:03:30.560 --> 0:03:34.360 it's been hotly debated for the last twenty years. Of 0:03:34.400 --> 0:03:39.520 this argument, Neil Degrassi Tyson, the famous astrophysicist, said, quote, 0:03:39.720 --> 0:03:41.840 I wish I had a good argument against that, but 0:03:42.120 --> 0:03:47.360 I do not end quote, even he is partially convinced. Okay, 0:03:47.520 --> 0:03:50.119 so what is this argument? To find out, I went 0:03:50.160 --> 0:03:54.400 straight to the source and talked to doctor Nick Bostrom. 0:03:54.960 --> 0:03:57.640 Thank you doctor Boston for joining us here today could 0:03:57.680 --> 0:04:00.160 be with George. Can you please tell us who you 0:04:00.160 --> 0:04:00.720 are and what do you do. 0:04:01.280 --> 0:04:04.720 I'm a Nick Bostrom, I'm a philosopher. Have been thinking 0:04:04.720 --> 0:04:07.400 for a long time about the future of technology AI 0:04:07.440 --> 0:04:11.480 in particular, and the implications for the big picture situation 0:04:11.640 --> 0:04:12.400 for humanity. 0:04:12.720 --> 0:04:15.560 So for those of us that are not familiar, what 0:04:15.680 --> 0:04:16.440 is the simulation? 0:04:16.920 --> 0:04:20.280 Well, in the context of the simulation argument, which I 0:04:20.360 --> 0:04:23.560 published back in two thousand and one, a simulation refers 0:04:23.600 --> 0:04:30.159 to a detailed computer simulation run by some technologically advanced civilization, 0:04:30.760 --> 0:04:35.240 which includes brains, simulations of brains simulated at the sufficient 0:04:35.320 --> 0:04:38.560 level of detail that these simulated brains are conscious and 0:04:38.680 --> 0:04:42.920 have experiences similar to the experiences that we have. It's 0:04:42.960 --> 0:04:48.320 a computer program, Yeah, an implementation of a computer program. Okay, 0:04:48.480 --> 0:04:52.520 here's the scenario. Imagine a computer the size of a planet, 0:04:53.080 --> 0:04:57.119 and this giant computer is running a computer program that's 0:04:57.240 --> 0:05:01.039 simulating a virtual world in which you, you, me, and 0:05:01.279 --> 0:05:04.800 everyone you know is not real, which is part of 0:05:04.800 --> 0:05:08.159 the simulation. So you don't really have a brain. Your 0:05:08.200 --> 0:05:12.839 brain is just code being simulated inside the program. And 0:05:12.920 --> 0:05:16.520 this program is being run by a super advanced civilization, 0:05:16.920 --> 0:05:19.880 which could be humans in the future, or it could 0:05:19.920 --> 0:05:24.800 be aliens. Yes, it's a wild scenario. So what could 0:05:24.839 --> 0:05:30.359 possibly make us think it's true? Now you've famously said 0:05:30.440 --> 0:05:32.560 that there's an argument to be made that we are 0:05:32.600 --> 0:05:36.120 currently living in a simulation. What is that argument? The 0:05:36.200 --> 0:05:40.599 simulation argument argues that one of three possibilities is true. 0:05:40.960 --> 0:05:44.560 The first possibility is that almost all civilizations at our 0:05:44.680 --> 0:05:49.520 current stage of technological development go extinct before they reach 0:05:49.839 --> 0:05:54.240 technological maturity. The second possibility is that out of all 0:05:54.320 --> 0:05:58.720 civilizations throughout the universe or the multiverse that do reach 0:05:58.800 --> 0:06:02.600 technolgical maturity, a strong convergence in that they all basically 0:06:02.640 --> 0:06:07.040 all of them lose interest in creating ancestors simulations. 0:06:08.200 --> 0:06:10.960 All right, The argument for the idea that we're living 0:06:11.000 --> 0:06:15.640 in a simulation comes down to three possibilities about the universe. 0:06:16.080 --> 0:06:19.359 The first possibility is that most civilizations in the universe 0:06:19.839 --> 0:06:23.400 snuff themselves out before they become the kind of super 0:06:23.440 --> 0:06:28.080 advanced species that can create these massive simulations. This would 0:06:28.080 --> 0:06:31.200 imply that there are no advanced civilizations in the universe 0:06:31.560 --> 0:06:34.320 and there never will be, because none of them ever 0:06:34.520 --> 0:06:38.000 make it that far. Maybe they wipe themselves out with 0:06:38.160 --> 0:06:42.240 nuclear war or environmental disaster, or maybe they deplete all 0:06:42.279 --> 0:06:45.560 their resources, or maybe bad luck just catches up to 0:06:45.600 --> 0:06:49.400 them and an asteroid or a comet eventually kills them. 0:06:49.920 --> 0:06:53.279 The second possibility is that there are civilizations that do 0:06:53.400 --> 0:06:56.040 become super advanced, to the point where they have nearly 0:06:56.200 --> 0:07:00.400 infinite resources, and they could make these massive planet sized similations, 0:07:00.560 --> 0:07:04.160 but for some reason they don't. Maybe they'll think it's 0:07:04.200 --> 0:07:07.560 a waste of time, or they find it morally objectionable 0:07:07.760 --> 0:07:13.040 to create sentient beings. And then there's a third possibility. 0:07:14.680 --> 0:07:17.320 And then the third remaining possibility is suppose it's not 0:07:17.400 --> 0:07:21.520 the case that almost all civilizations fail to reach technolgical maturity, 0:07:21.560 --> 0:07:24.400 so that means that like some significant fraction of them 0:07:24.440 --> 0:07:27.280 get through. Then let's suppose that at least some non 0:07:27.360 --> 0:07:31.480 trivial fraction of these civilizations that do become technolgically mature 0:07:31.480 --> 0:07:34.680 are still interested in using some non negligible fraction of 0:07:34.720 --> 0:07:38.320 the resources for this purpose of creating simulations. You can 0:07:38.360 --> 0:07:40.720 then show that there would be many, many more people 0:07:41.040 --> 0:07:44.720 like us living inside simulations than that would be people 0:07:44.800 --> 0:07:48.559 like us living in the original history. Because even using 0:07:48.560 --> 0:07:52.480 a small fraction of the resources of a technolically advanced civilization, 0:07:52.560 --> 0:07:55.520 you could run millions and millions and millions simulations of 0:07:55.600 --> 0:07:58.040 all of human history. Then it would be the case 0:07:58.080 --> 0:08:01.040 that most people like us would be in simulations, the 0:08:01.160 --> 0:08:02.240 overwhelming majority. 0:08:03.680 --> 0:08:06.720 Okay, here's the core of the argument. It's basically a 0:08:06.840 --> 0:08:11.040 betting argument. If the other two possibilities are not true, 0:08:11.640 --> 0:08:14.640 meaning that there are advanced civilizations out there and at 0:08:14.720 --> 0:08:17.040 least some of them think it's cool to create massive, 0:08:17.120 --> 0:08:20.840 planet sized computer simulations, then the odds are that we 0:08:21.320 --> 0:08:24.280 are in one of those simulations. That is because these 0:08:24.320 --> 0:08:28.880 advance civilizations, doctor Boston argues wouldn't just create one simulation, 0:08:29.280 --> 0:08:31.280 they would create millions of them. 0:08:31.840 --> 0:08:32.600 Just like when. 0:08:32.400 --> 0:08:36.160 Millions of kids here on Earth play say Minecraft, each 0:08:36.240 --> 0:08:39.920 kid is creating a world with thousands or millions of 0:08:40.080 --> 0:08:44.320 artificial beings in it, And so the argument goes, in 0:08:44.360 --> 0:08:48.240 the whole universe there would be many more simulated beings 0:08:48.480 --> 0:08:52.200 than real ones. So if you're a conscious being, meaning 0:08:52.360 --> 0:08:55.440 some kind of entity that thinks they're real. Then the 0:08:55.480 --> 0:08:58.520 odds that you are real are small. 0:09:00.200 --> 0:09:02.199 So what that that means is, if you're the first 0:09:02.200 --> 0:09:05.560 two alternatives, you have to accept the third one. And 0:09:05.600 --> 0:09:08.080 then I argue that conditional that we should think we 0:09:08.120 --> 0:09:10.439 are probably one of the simulated ones rather than one 0:09:10.440 --> 0:09:13.600 of the exceptional non simulated ones. That we are almost 0:09:13.640 --> 0:09:18.439 certainly living inside a computer simulation created by some technolically 0:09:18.520 --> 0:09:19.679 advanced civilization. 0:09:21.440 --> 0:09:23.920 So that is the main argument for the idea that 0:09:23.960 --> 0:09:27.800 we're living in a simulation. It's a logical argument and 0:09:28.240 --> 0:09:31.960 it's a betting argument. There are three possibilities. The first 0:09:31.960 --> 0:09:35.319 two are not true, the third one must be true, 0:09:35.679 --> 0:09:38.600 and that one says that there are advance civilizations out 0:09:38.640 --> 0:09:42.000 there that are simulating millions and millions of virtual lives, 0:09:42.360 --> 0:09:44.560 which means to us that you are one of them. 0:09:44.880 --> 0:09:48.160 Is really high. Like if there are a million real 0:09:48.200 --> 0:09:51.520 people out there, but there are trillions of simulated people 0:09:51.559 --> 0:09:54.600 who think they are real, then the most likely thing 0:09:55.120 --> 0:09:58.200 is that you are one of the simulated ones. Now, 0:09:58.240 --> 0:10:01.520 as you can imagine, there are several big assumptions here. 0:10:01.800 --> 0:10:03.960 The first one is that we could ever have the 0:10:04.000 --> 0:10:08.040 technology to make these planet size relations of billions of brains. 0:10:08.360 --> 0:10:11.400 And the second is that anyone would want to do this. 0:10:11.880 --> 0:10:14.720 Here's how doctor Boston talks about the first assumption. 0:10:16.520 --> 0:10:18.800 So a key premise here, which is that a technolgical 0:10:18.880 --> 0:10:22.680 matricivilization would have enough computing power to run gazillions of 0:10:22.720 --> 0:10:26.000 these simulations. Now, we currently don't have the ability to 0:10:26.080 --> 0:10:30.400 create these simulations because we don't have that technological wherewithal yet, 0:10:30.440 --> 0:10:34.439 but a technolgical mature civilization would have this capability. In fact, 0:10:34.840 --> 0:10:37.640 you could say that even just using the resources of 0:10:37.760 --> 0:10:42.160 a single planet, using only computational architectures that we already know, 0:10:42.240 --> 0:10:44.880 would be possible. For one minute, they could run like 0:10:44.960 --> 0:10:47.560 millions of simulations of all of the brains that have 0:10:47.640 --> 0:10:50.400 existed throughout human history. If you can roughly estimate the 0:10:50.440 --> 0:10:52.520 processing power of the human brain, you can count the 0:10:52.600 --> 0:10:56.800 number of synopsies, the frequency with which they fire, et cetera, 0:10:56.880 --> 0:10:59.360 and you still get the conclusion that, even if they 0:10:59.360 --> 0:11:03.000 are only very slowly interested in this application, the number 0:11:03.040 --> 0:11:07.160 of simulations one of these interested technologically matri civilization could 0:11:07.240 --> 0:11:10.400 run over the course of its lifespan would be in 0:11:10.440 --> 0:11:12.040 the trillions and trillions and trillions. 0:11:13.679 --> 0:11:16.280 Okay, what doctor Boston is saying here is that if 0:11:16.320 --> 0:11:20.480 a civilization is really advanced, and we're talking super futuristic 0:11:20.600 --> 0:11:23.480 humans or aliens that have figured out things like fusion 0:11:23.640 --> 0:11:27.559 energy and can build spaceships, mind asteroids, and conquer other planets, 0:11:27.840 --> 0:11:31.400 then simulating a few billion or a few trillion human 0:11:31.440 --> 0:11:34.640 brains would be easy for them. And you can sort 0:11:34.640 --> 0:11:37.480 of see that even now, we have a huge amount 0:11:37.520 --> 0:11:40.760 of computing power and we can simulate ais that can 0:11:40.840 --> 0:11:42.959 solve most problems humans can. 0:11:43.640 --> 0:11:45.520 And in this argument, you don't need. 0:11:45.360 --> 0:11:48.760 All civilizations to reach this advanced point. If only a 0:11:48.920 --> 0:11:51.960 few do, say one in one hundred or one in 0:11:52.000 --> 0:11:55.480 a thousand, then that would be enough to simulate trillions 0:11:55.480 --> 0:11:59.680 of fake people and outnumber the real ones. And the 0:11:59.679 --> 0:12:05.679 second biggest emgine is why would anyone do this? Do 0:12:05.720 --> 0:12:09.640 you see humanity making these simulations? Is there evidence right 0:12:09.640 --> 0:12:12.160 now that we would make these if. 0:12:12.000 --> 0:12:14.760 We were given the ability right now? If somehow some 0:12:14.800 --> 0:12:18.920 scientists figured out how to just create vastly more powerful computers, 0:12:19.000 --> 0:12:21.520 and if we had the ability to program them appropriately, 0:12:21.559 --> 0:12:23.080 a lot of people would do it for all kinds 0:12:23.120 --> 0:12:26.400 of reasons, like historical researchers would find it interesting to 0:12:26.480 --> 0:12:31.200 run counterfactual runs of history. Game developers might have a 0:12:31.240 --> 0:12:34.360 game setting where there are like real historical people. You 0:12:34.440 --> 0:12:37.360 might want to visit an earlier era. You can't build 0:12:37.400 --> 0:12:39.679 a time machine, so the second best you could do 0:12:39.960 --> 0:12:42.920 would be to create a detailed simulation of this epoch 0:12:42.960 --> 0:12:44.960 in the past, and then you could sort of visited 0:12:45.080 --> 0:12:47.520 as a as a tourist. That might be many other 0:12:47.559 --> 0:12:50.480 reasons as well, or for no reason, just for you know, 0:12:50.960 --> 0:12:53.200 for the heck of it. So right now, yeah, we 0:12:53.240 --> 0:12:55.360 would be running a lot of simulations if it was 0:12:55.440 --> 0:12:56.959 cheap enough to do it easily. 0:12:58.360 --> 0:13:01.320 Doctor Boston's point is that there are lots of reasons 0:13:01.320 --> 0:13:04.520 to create such a massive simulation. It could be like 0:13:04.600 --> 0:13:08.400 a video game, for that advanced revilization, or for research 0:13:08.679 --> 0:13:12.520 or curiosity. And you don't need all futuristic civilizations to 0:13:12.559 --> 0:13:14.680 do it. You just need one or two. 0:13:16.240 --> 0:13:19.720 Now, we don't know that much about technogically mature civilizations, 0:13:19.720 --> 0:13:22.080 so maybe there is this strong convergence, like they all 0:13:22.440 --> 0:13:25.160 realize that it's like morally bad to do this, and 0:13:25.200 --> 0:13:28.200 they all converge on the right ethic. But this second alternative, 0:13:28.240 --> 0:13:30.360 it's hard to rule it out completely. But even if 0:13:30.440 --> 0:13:33.760 most civilizations, say would somehow converge that they would not 0:13:33.920 --> 0:13:37.120 run any of these simulations, like wouldn't one in a thousand, 0:13:37.320 --> 0:13:40.320 one in a million somewhere in the universe do it, 0:13:40.360 --> 0:13:42.319 then that would be not to generate enough of these 0:13:42.320 --> 0:13:44.680 simulations that most people like us would be in the 0:13:44.720 --> 0:13:47.160 simulations now. 0:13:47.200 --> 0:13:51.320 In doctor Boston's original paper, he envisioned future humans running 0:13:51.360 --> 0:13:54.880 a simulation of the past, meaning we think we're in 0:13:54.920 --> 0:13:58.000 the year twenty twenty five right now, but really we're 0:13:58.080 --> 0:14:01.120 in a computer running in the year ten thousand or 0:14:01.120 --> 0:14:05.000 one hundred thousand that is built by one of our descendants. 0:14:05.679 --> 0:14:09.239 But the argument in general also works with aliens. 0:14:10.600 --> 0:14:14.480 Yeah, you could mutter a technodically mature civilization. One type 0:14:14.520 --> 0:14:17.680 of simulation they could do would be simulations of people 0:14:17.760 --> 0:14:22.200 like their ancestors or variations thereof Maybe they would simulate 0:14:22.240 --> 0:14:26.120 people like us. You could also run simulations of potential aliens. Right, 0:14:26.200 --> 0:14:29.080 you don't only have to simulate people you thought inhabited 0:14:29.720 --> 0:14:32.720 your planet before, but you could. So all of those 0:14:32.760 --> 0:14:35.640 are possible, and there would be this population of different 0:14:35.680 --> 0:14:40.600 simulations and simulated creatures of potentially many different kinds like 0:14:40.680 --> 0:14:44.000 the idea of Earth could be simulated and fake. Yeah, yeah, 0:14:44.080 --> 0:14:45.360 that could be the case. 0:14:45.440 --> 0:14:48.680 Yeah. Now what is your personal opinion? Do you think 0:14:48.720 --> 0:14:51.520 that we are living in simulation? Or is your judge 0:14:51.560 --> 0:14:53.040 just to think about these possibilities. 0:14:53.280 --> 0:14:55.840 So I tend to pond on I've often asked, what, 0:14:55.960 --> 0:14:58.640 like the probability is. I tend to like refrain from 0:14:58.640 --> 0:15:02.920 giving a precise num. I do think it's a serious hypothesis. 0:15:03.040 --> 0:15:06.480 I would assign it significant credence, but I haven't given 0:15:06.520 --> 0:15:10.320 a particular specific number. And the simulation argument in and 0:15:10.360 --> 0:15:13.520 of itself doesn't tell us that. It only tells us 0:15:13.520 --> 0:15:16.400 that at least one of these three alternatives is true. 0:15:16.960 --> 0:15:20.160 So if you wanted to conclude that the third alternative 0:15:20.200 --> 0:15:21.960 is true, that is that we are in a simulation, 0:15:22.040 --> 0:15:25.000 you wouldn't have to bring in some additional evidence to 0:15:25.080 --> 0:15:27.680 rule out the other two. All right. 0:15:27.760 --> 0:15:30.320 So that is the red pill, the argument that we 0:15:30.360 --> 0:15:33.600 are living in a simulation, and it's compelling because it's 0:15:33.640 --> 0:15:38.240 hard to rule out all other possibilities, or is it. 0:15:39.280 --> 0:15:42.080 When we come back, we'll take the blue pill and 0:15:42.120 --> 0:15:44.600 talk to a quantum scientist who's going to make the 0:15:44.640 --> 0:15:47.920 case that we are not living in a simulation. And 0:15:47.960 --> 0:15:50.480 then at the end, I'll offer you a third option 0:15:50.760 --> 0:15:55.000 that gets even crazier. So stay with us. You're listening 0:15:55.040 --> 0:16:07.640 to sign stuff. Welcome back the Bluepill. Here's the argument 0:16:07.720 --> 0:16:11.760 for why we are probably not living inside a simulation. 0:16:12.440 --> 0:16:15.960 If you skip ahead, here's the proposed scenario. You and 0:16:16.080 --> 0:16:18.920 I and all eight billion people on the planet right 0:16:18.960 --> 0:16:20.720 now are not real. 0:16:21.400 --> 0:16:22.280 We are all. 0:16:22.040 --> 0:16:26.400 Simulated beings living inside a computer program running on a 0:16:26.520 --> 0:16:30.960 planet sized computer built by a super advanced future human 0:16:31.400 --> 0:16:35.640 or alien civilization. And believe it or not, there is 0:16:35.680 --> 0:16:39.800 a very compelling argument that this is true. But to 0:16:39.840 --> 0:16:42.440 give us the counter argument that we are not living 0:16:42.440 --> 0:16:44.880 in a simulation, I reached out to a couple of 0:16:44.960 --> 0:16:50.040 quantum scientists who wrote a paper titled Probability and Consequences 0:16:50.080 --> 0:16:53.920 of Living Inside a Computer Simulation, in which they argue 0:16:54.000 --> 0:16:58.720 that we are probably not simulated. The authors, Alexander Bibou 0:16:58.880 --> 0:17:02.880 and Guiz brazaar we're working on quantum cryptography when they 0:17:02.920 --> 0:17:06.880 realize that quantum mechanics pretty much throws a big French 0:17:07.119 --> 0:17:11.399 into the whole simulation argument. So here's my conversation with 0:17:11.480 --> 0:17:16.480 the main author of that paper, doctor Alexander Bibo. All right, 0:17:16.480 --> 0:17:18.520 doctor Bibo, thank you so much for joining us. 0:17:18.680 --> 0:17:19.399 It's my pleasure. 0:17:19.680 --> 0:17:21.960 The first thing I want to check is this is 0:17:22.000 --> 0:17:25.280 you right, I'm talking to the real you, not a simulation. 0:17:26.160 --> 0:17:27.000 As far as I know. 0:17:28.119 --> 0:17:31.400 Well, we're talking today about this question of whether we're 0:17:31.440 --> 0:17:34.399 living in a simulation. This is a pretty wild idea, 0:17:34.520 --> 0:17:37.520 because you know, I go through my everyday life and 0:17:37.920 --> 0:17:40.520 feels like I'm in a real place. It feels like 0:17:40.560 --> 0:17:44.240 I'm in actual reality. You wrote a paper arguing against 0:17:44.240 --> 0:17:46.960 this idea. Yeah, now, please spend the next ten minutes 0:17:47.000 --> 0:17:49.119 trying to convince me we are not in a simulation. 0:17:49.600 --> 0:17:51.800 The big thing that in Bostrom's paper and what people 0:17:52.080 --> 0:17:54.680 have this argument discount is the fact that you don't 0:17:54.720 --> 0:17:56.920 need to only simulate the brains of the people living 0:17:56.960 --> 0:17:59.520 in the simulations, but you need to simulate their whole world. 0:18:00.200 --> 0:18:03.920 For instance, this idea that you could build a bunch 0:18:04.359 --> 0:18:08.159 of brains with just a small amount of matter optimize 0:18:08.160 --> 0:18:11.000 according to all the laws of physics, the number of 0:18:11.040 --> 0:18:14.320 brains that could simulate is really really high. That initially like, 0:18:14.359 --> 0:18:18.359 it's very much in favor of their being more simulated beings. Okay, 0:18:18.600 --> 0:18:22.000 but building all this world around these simulated beings will 0:18:22.040 --> 0:18:25.840 require that same level of power, and physics can get 0:18:25.960 --> 0:18:29.440 very complicated, especially quantum physics can be very complicated to simulate. 0:18:29.720 --> 0:18:31.919 So it ends up canceling out, and it ends up 0:18:31.960 --> 0:18:34.120 not being such an argument in favor of there being 0:18:34.160 --> 0:18:38.919 so many more simulated beings. Mathematically speaking, okay, the first 0:18:39.040 --> 0:18:41.840 argument against the idea that we're living in a simulation 0:18:42.320 --> 0:18:44.560 is the fact that it's really hard to make a 0:18:44.600 --> 0:18:48.840 simulation of reality. According to doctor Bibo, you not only. 0:18:48.760 --> 0:18:51.639 Have to simulate a human brain, which is the most 0:18:51.640 --> 0:18:54.960 complex arrangement of matter we know about, but you also 0:18:55.040 --> 0:18:58.320 have to simulate the physical world around that brain, and 0:18:58.359 --> 0:19:01.800 it's especially hard if you make your simulation accurate to 0:19:01.880 --> 0:19:05.480 the level of quantum physics. So whereas before you might 0:19:05.520 --> 0:19:08.080 say that it would be very easy for an advanced 0:19:08.119 --> 0:19:12.600 alien or humans flization to simulate trillions of sentient beings. 0:19:12.440 --> 0:19:14.639 And therefore make it more likely that we are. 0:19:14.480 --> 0:19:20.040 Simulated beings, doctor People argues, it's not that easy. 0:19:20.119 --> 0:19:23.879 It's very hard computationally speaking, to simulate whole worlds, okay, 0:19:24.119 --> 0:19:27.399 especially cold worlds in which there is quantum physics. Okay, 0:19:27.600 --> 0:19:29.920 because quantum computations are inefficient. 0:19:30.359 --> 0:19:31.960 Like if someone were to make a video game and 0:19:32.000 --> 0:19:35.040 we're in that video game, most of their computer, most 0:19:35.080 --> 0:19:38.320 of their PlayStation thirteen would have to be spent running 0:19:38.400 --> 0:19:39.280 quantum physics on. 0:19:39.240 --> 0:19:42.399 It, exactly, exactly, especially if inside the video game they 0:19:42.400 --> 0:19:44.080 don't know they're in a video game and they're starting 0:19:44.080 --> 0:19:46.480 to be curious about their world and they're trying to 0:19:46.520 --> 0:19:50.000 perform like quantum physics experiments, like these scientists are at 0:19:50.040 --> 0:19:53.000 work trying to verify that quantum mechanics is being respected 0:19:53.000 --> 0:19:56.000 as some of our quantum scientists are. It would require 0:19:56.040 --> 0:19:58.560 all the computing power of their advanced PlayStation and the 0:19:58.600 --> 0:20:01.360 game would slow down to a crawl. This is the argument. 0:20:02.880 --> 0:20:05.560 So that's one of the arguments against the idea that 0:20:05.600 --> 0:20:08.640 we are living in a simulation. It's very hard to 0:20:08.680 --> 0:20:13.200 simulate quantum physics. You either need a quantum computer, which 0:20:13.200 --> 0:20:15.919 are really hard to make, or you end up spending 0:20:15.960 --> 0:20:19.320 most of your computing power calculating all of the different 0:20:19.359 --> 0:20:23.560 probabilities that happen all at once in quantum systems. And 0:20:23.680 --> 0:20:25.400 if you want to know more about this, check out 0:20:25.440 --> 0:20:29.119 our episode on quantum computers. Now some people have argued, 0:20:29.320 --> 0:20:33.600 including doctor Bostram himself that a simulated reality doesn't need 0:20:33.600 --> 0:20:37.440 to simulate quantum physics, at least not all the time. 0:20:37.960 --> 0:20:42.400 They could use something called procedural generation. Here's how doctor 0:20:42.440 --> 0:20:43.679 Bostrom describes it. 0:20:44.920 --> 0:20:47.359 In these simulations, you would need a simulation of the 0:20:47.440 --> 0:20:51.439 environment to generate the experiences that these simulated brains have, 0:20:52.119 --> 0:20:55.040 but you wouldn't have to simulate the environment in perfect detail. 0:20:55.119 --> 0:20:57.240 You would only need to simulate the aspects of the 0:20:57.320 --> 0:21:01.000 environment that the simulated brains person eve at a given 0:21:01.000 --> 0:21:03.520 point in time. So it's not the case that every 0:21:03.520 --> 0:21:06.160 single atom in the desk in front of you would 0:21:06.160 --> 0:21:09.439 be simulated continuously, let alone the quarks and stuff. Right. 0:21:09.480 --> 0:21:12.600 I think that that would add massive demands on how 0:21:12.680 --> 0:21:14.560 much computing power it would take, and it would soon 0:21:14.600 --> 0:21:19.000 become infeasible even with like really advanced technology. But all 0:21:19.040 --> 0:21:21.639 that would be required is that the surface appearances of 0:21:21.720 --> 0:21:24.399 your desk are simulated sufficiently that it looks to you 0:21:25.080 --> 0:21:25.880 fully realistic. 0:21:26.000 --> 0:21:26.080 Right. 0:21:26.880 --> 0:21:29.840 And then let's say some physicists in a lab like 0:21:30.040 --> 0:21:32.480 took an electron microscope and looked at a piece of 0:21:32.560 --> 0:21:36.720 your desk, right that they could see potentially individual molecules, right, 0:21:36.720 --> 0:21:39.920 than atoms. So at that point more detail would have 0:21:39.960 --> 0:21:42.040 to be filled in in the simulation, but only in 0:21:42.040 --> 0:21:44.240 the particular piece that they were looking at, so it 0:21:44.240 --> 0:21:46.200 would be sort of procedurally generated. 0:21:47.520 --> 0:21:49.959 This is what's done in a lot of video games today, 0:21:50.320 --> 0:21:53.760 like Minecraft or the Legend of Zelda, where a character 0:21:53.880 --> 0:21:57.800 is free to walk around a huge virtual environment. The 0:21:57.800 --> 0:22:01.320 computer doesn't need to simulate the entire world, just the 0:22:01.320 --> 0:22:04.359 parts that the character sees, and just at the level 0:22:04.480 --> 0:22:07.399 that matters to them. So if a mountain is far away, 0:22:07.800 --> 0:22:10.800 you don't need to simulate every atom or quantum particle 0:22:10.880 --> 0:22:13.560 of that mountain. You can just simulate it as a 0:22:13.640 --> 0:22:16.840 big block or even the table in front of you 0:22:17.200 --> 0:22:19.520 to tap it or put your hand on it. You 0:22:19.560 --> 0:22:22.920 don't actually have to simulate it at the atomic level. 0:22:23.480 --> 0:22:26.400 This would make it easier to simulate a whole reality, 0:22:26.840 --> 0:22:30.160 and therefore make it more likely we are in a simulation, 0:22:30.680 --> 0:22:36.520 But as doctor Bibaut counter argues, it has its limits, and. 0:22:36.480 --> 0:22:39.280 The people who argue for this high probability that we 0:22:39.320 --> 0:22:41.399 are in a simulation, we don't need such higher rate 0:22:41.440 --> 0:22:43.439 of input in order for it to feel real. You know, 0:22:43.480 --> 0:22:45.480