1 00:00:00,680 --> 00:00:03,880 Speaker 1: Hi, Welcome to Science Stuff, a production of iHeartRadio. My 2 00:00:04,000 --> 00:00:06,480 Speaker 1: name is Jorge cham and today we're asking the question 3 00:00:07,000 --> 00:00:10,640 Speaker 1: are we living in a simulation? Are you and I 4 00:00:10,880 --> 00:00:14,160 Speaker 1: real people? Or are we characters in a fake video 5 00:00:14,200 --> 00:00:19,079 Speaker 1: game put on by an advanced alien civilization. Believe it 6 00:00:19,160 --> 00:00:21,919 Speaker 1: or not, this is a possibility that is actually being 7 00:00:22,000 --> 00:00:26,800 Speaker 1: considered and discussed by really smart philosophers and scientists. We're 8 00:00:26,840 --> 00:00:28,680 Speaker 1: going to talk to the man who first proposed this 9 00:00:28,680 --> 00:00:32,839 Speaker 1: philosophical argument, and we'll talk to a quantum information scientist 10 00:00:33,120 --> 00:00:35,240 Speaker 1: who thinks he knows how to tell if we're living 11 00:00:35,280 --> 00:00:38,680 Speaker 1: in a computer or not. So whether you're simulated or real, 12 00:00:39,159 --> 00:00:41,880 Speaker 1: join us as we break the code and answer the 13 00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:45,080 Speaker 1: question are we living in a simulation? 14 00:00:50,159 --> 00:00:50,360 Speaker 2: Hi? 15 00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:53,880 Speaker 1: Everyone, Okay, we're going to do something different today, and 16 00:00:53,960 --> 00:00:56,000 Speaker 1: that is we're going to give you a choice. In 17 00:00:56,040 --> 00:00:59,480 Speaker 1: this episode, there's an argument that none of this and 18 00:00:59,520 --> 00:01:03,120 Speaker 1: none of us us are real. But as Morphius said 19 00:01:03,120 --> 00:01:06,240 Speaker 1: in the Matrix movies, not everyone is ready to hear 20 00:01:06,440 --> 00:01:09,240 Speaker 1: the truth. So we're going to offer you a red 21 00:01:09,280 --> 00:01:12,520 Speaker 1: pill and a blue pill. If you take the red pill, 22 00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:15,360 Speaker 1: you will hear the argument for the idea that we're 23 00:01:15,400 --> 00:01:18,679 Speaker 1: living in a simulation, and if you're convinced, as many 24 00:01:18,720 --> 00:01:22,800 Speaker 1: smart people are, it's going to turn your world upside down. 25 00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:25,800 Speaker 1: But if you take the blue pill, then you'll hear 26 00:01:25,840 --> 00:01:29,160 Speaker 1: the argument against the idea we're all living in a simulation, 27 00:01:29,600 --> 00:01:31,760 Speaker 1: and you can go back to the life you've been living, 28 00:01:32,240 --> 00:01:35,319 Speaker 1: even if it's all a lie. And then later on 29 00:01:35,360 --> 00:01:38,160 Speaker 1: we're going to offer you a third pill, a purple pill, 30 00:01:38,720 --> 00:01:41,320 Speaker 1: but that's going to come later. So here's your choice 31 00:01:41,319 --> 00:01:44,080 Speaker 1: for now. To take the red pill, skip to the 32 00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:48,400 Speaker 1: next chapter and hopefully your podcast player recognizes chapter markers, 33 00:01:49,160 --> 00:01:53,080 Speaker 1: or just keep listening and you'll hear why some scholars 34 00:01:53,120 --> 00:01:56,320 Speaker 1: think we're living inside a computer. Or to take the 35 00:01:56,400 --> 00:02:00,200 Speaker 1: blue pill and be reassured you're a real person. Kip 36 00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:03,200 Speaker 1: ahead two chapters. We go to after the first ad 37 00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:06,040 Speaker 1: break at about the middle of the episode, and you'll 38 00:02:06,080 --> 00:02:09,200 Speaker 1: jump straight to the argument against the idea we're living 39 00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 1: in a simulation. All right, pause the episode if you 40 00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:15,360 Speaker 1: have to. I'll give you a second to make your choice, 41 00:02:16,160 --> 00:02:23,240 Speaker 1: And here we go the red pill, Why we are 42 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:27,360 Speaker 1: probably living in a simulation. One of the first mentions 43 00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:30,080 Speaker 1: of this idea is in a nineteen sixty four science 44 00:02:30,080 --> 00:02:34,400 Speaker 1: fiction novel called Simulacron three. In the book, a man 45 00:02:34,480 --> 00:02:37,760 Speaker 1: named Douglas Hall helps create a computer simulation of a 46 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:40,839 Speaker 1: city filled with simulated people who think they are real 47 00:02:40,880 --> 00:02:45,560 Speaker 1: people as a platform to do marketing research. But when 48 00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:48,480 Speaker 1: strange events happen to him and his coworkers, he starts 49 00:02:48,480 --> 00:02:51,680 Speaker 1: to realize that he is living in a computer simulation. 50 00:02:52,200 --> 00:02:55,040 Speaker 1: He's a computer program and the simulation he was working 51 00:02:55,080 --> 00:02:58,680 Speaker 1: on is a simulation inside of another simulation. But the 52 00:02:58,720 --> 00:03:01,239 Speaker 1: reason this idea has been so talked about in recent 53 00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:05,000 Speaker 1: years is due to a man named Nick Bostrom. Doctor 54 00:03:05,040 --> 00:03:08,440 Speaker 1: Boston is a philosopher and former professor at Oxford University 55 00:03:08,639 --> 00:03:11,600 Speaker 1: who published the paper in the Philosophical Quarterly in two 56 00:03:11,639 --> 00:03:15,560 Speaker 1: thousand and three titled Are We Living in a Computer Simulation? 57 00:03:16,120 --> 00:03:19,040 Speaker 1: In which he presented his argument that the most rational 58 00:03:19,120 --> 00:03:21,920 Speaker 1: thing for humans to do is to assume that we 59 00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:25,480 Speaker 1: are living in a simulation created by an advanced species 60 00:03:25,520 --> 00:03:30,520 Speaker 1: of humans or aliens. The argument is so persuasive that 61 00:03:30,560 --> 00:03:34,360 Speaker 1: it's been hotly debated for the last twenty years. Of 62 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:39,520 Speaker 1: this argument, Neil Degrassi Tyson, the famous astrophysicist, said, quote, 63 00:03:39,720 --> 00:03:41,840 Speaker 1: I wish I had a good argument against that, but 64 00:03:42,120 --> 00:03:47,360 Speaker 1: I do not end quote, even he is partially convinced. Okay, 65 00:03:47,520 --> 00:03:50,119 Speaker 1: so what is this argument? To find out, I went 66 00:03:50,160 --> 00:03:54,400 Speaker 1: straight to the source and talked to doctor Nick Bostrom. 67 00:03:54,960 --> 00:03:57,640 Speaker 1: Thank you doctor Boston for joining us here today could 68 00:03:57,680 --> 00:04:00,160 Speaker 1: be with George. Can you please tell us who you 69 00:04:00,160 --> 00:04:00,720 Speaker 1: are and what do you do. 70 00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:04,720 Speaker 2: I'm a Nick Bostrom, I'm a philosopher. Have been thinking 71 00:04:04,720 --> 00:04:07,400 Speaker 2: for a long time about the future of technology AI 72 00:04:07,440 --> 00:04:11,480 Speaker 2: in particular, and the implications for the big picture situation 73 00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:12,400 Speaker 2: for humanity. 74 00:04:12,720 --> 00:04:15,560 Speaker 1: So for those of us that are not familiar, what 75 00:04:15,680 --> 00:04:16,440 Speaker 1: is the simulation? 76 00:04:16,920 --> 00:04:20,280 Speaker 2: Well, in the context of the simulation argument, which I 77 00:04:20,360 --> 00:04:23,560 Speaker 2: published back in two thousand and one, a simulation refers 78 00:04:23,600 --> 00:04:30,159 Speaker 2: to a detailed computer simulation run by some technologically advanced civilization, 79 00:04:30,760 --> 00:04:35,240 Speaker 2: which includes brains, simulations of brains simulated at the sufficient 80 00:04:35,320 --> 00:04:38,560 Speaker 2: level of detail that these simulated brains are conscious and 81 00:04:38,680 --> 00:04:42,920 Speaker 2: have experiences similar to the experiences that we have. It's 82 00:04:42,960 --> 00:04:48,320 Speaker 2: a computer program, Yeah, an implementation of a computer program. Okay, 83 00:04:48,480 --> 00:04:52,520 Speaker 2: here's the scenario. Imagine a computer the size of a planet, 84 00:04:53,080 --> 00:04:57,119 Speaker 2: and this giant computer is running a computer program that's 85 00:04:57,240 --> 00:05:01,039 Speaker 2: simulating a virtual world in which you, you, me, and 86 00:05:01,279 --> 00:05:04,800 Speaker 2: everyone you know is not real, which is part of 87 00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:08,159 Speaker 2: the simulation. So you don't really have a brain. Your 88 00:05:08,200 --> 00:05:12,839 Speaker 2: brain is just code being simulated inside the program. And 89 00:05:12,920 --> 00:05:16,520 Speaker 2: this program is being run by a super advanced civilization, 90 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:19,880 Speaker 2: which could be humans in the future, or it could 91 00:05:19,920 --> 00:05:24,800 Speaker 2: be aliens. Yes, it's a wild scenario. So what could 92 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:30,359 Speaker 2: possibly make us think it's true? Now you've famously said 93 00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:32,560 Speaker 2: that there's an argument to be made that we are 94 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:36,120 Speaker 2: currently living in a simulation. What is that argument? The 95 00:05:36,200 --> 00:05:40,599 Speaker 2: simulation argument argues that one of three possibilities is true. 96 00:05:40,960 --> 00:05:44,560 Speaker 2: The first possibility is that almost all civilizations at our 97 00:05:44,680 --> 00:05:49,520 Speaker 2: current stage of technological development go extinct before they reach 98 00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:54,240 Speaker 2: technological maturity. The second possibility is that out of all 99 00:05:54,320 --> 00:05:58,720 Speaker 2: civilizations throughout the universe or the multiverse that do reach 100 00:05:58,800 --> 00:06:02,600 Speaker 2: technolgical maturity, a strong convergence in that they all basically 101 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:07,040 Speaker 2: all of them lose interest in creating ancestors simulations. 102 00:06:08,200 --> 00:06:10,960 Speaker 1: All right, The argument for the idea that we're living 103 00:06:11,000 --> 00:06:15,640 Speaker 1: in a simulation comes down to three possibilities about the universe. 104 00:06:16,080 --> 00:06:19,359 Speaker 1: The first possibility is that most civilizations in the universe 105 00:06:19,839 --> 00:06:23,400 Speaker 1: snuff themselves out before they become the kind of super 106 00:06:23,440 --> 00:06:28,080 Speaker 1: advanced species that can create these massive simulations. This would 107 00:06:28,080 --> 00:06:31,200 Speaker 1: imply that there are no advanced civilizations in the universe 108 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:34,320 Speaker 1: and there never will be, because none of them ever 109 00:06:34,520 --> 00:06:38,000 Speaker 1: make it that far. Maybe they wipe themselves out with 110 00:06:38,160 --> 00:06:42,240 Speaker 1: nuclear war or environmental disaster, or maybe they deplete all 111 00:06:42,279 --> 00:06:45,560 Speaker 1: their resources, or maybe bad luck just catches up to 112 00:06:45,600 --> 00:06:49,400 Speaker 1: them and an asteroid or a comet eventually kills them. 113 00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:53,279 Speaker 1: The second possibility is that there are civilizations that do 114 00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:56,040 Speaker 1: become super advanced, to the point where they have nearly 115 00:06:56,200 --> 00:07:00,400 Speaker 1: infinite resources, and they could make these massive planet sized similations, 116 00:07:00,560 --> 00:07:04,160 Speaker 1: but for some reason they don't. Maybe they'll think it's 117 00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:07,560 Speaker 1: a waste of time, or they find it morally objectionable 118 00:07:07,760 --> 00:07:13,040 Speaker 1: to create sentient beings. And then there's a third possibility. 119 00:07:14,680 --> 00:07:17,320 Speaker 2: And then the third remaining possibility is suppose it's not 120 00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:21,520 Speaker 2: the case that almost all civilizations fail to reach technolgical maturity, 121 00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:24,400 Speaker 2: so that means that like some significant fraction of them 122 00:07:24,440 --> 00:07:27,280 Speaker 2: get through. Then let's suppose that at least some non 123 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:31,480 Speaker 2: trivial fraction of these civilizations that do become technolgically mature 124 00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:34,680 Speaker 2: are still interested in using some non negligible fraction of 125 00:07:34,720 --> 00:07:38,320 Speaker 2: the resources for this purpose of creating simulations. You can 126 00:07:38,360 --> 00:07:40,720 Speaker 2: then show that there would be many, many more people 127 00:07:41,040 --> 00:07:44,720 Speaker 2: like us living inside simulations than that would be people 128 00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:48,559 Speaker 2: like us living in the original history. Because even using 129 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:52,480 Speaker 2: a small fraction of the resources of a technolically advanced civilization, 130 00:07:52,560 --> 00:07:55,520 Speaker 2: you could run millions and millions and millions simulations of 131 00:07:55,600 --> 00:07:58,040 Speaker 2: all of human history. Then it would be the case 132 00:07:58,080 --> 00:08:01,040 Speaker 2: that most people like us would be in simulations, the 133 00:08:01,160 --> 00:08:02,240 Speaker 2: overwhelming majority. 134 00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:06,720 Speaker 1: Okay, here's the core of the argument. It's basically a 135 00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:11,040 Speaker 1: betting argument. If the other two possibilities are not true, 136 00:08:11,640 --> 00:08:14,640 Speaker 1: meaning that there are advanced civilizations out there and at 137 00:08:14,720 --> 00:08:17,040 Speaker 1: least some of them think it's cool to create massive, 138 00:08:17,120 --> 00:08:20,840 Speaker 1: planet sized computer simulations, then the odds are that we 139 00:08:21,320 --> 00:08:24,280 Speaker 1: are in one of those simulations. That is because these 140 00:08:24,320 --> 00:08:28,880 Speaker 1: advance civilizations, doctor Boston argues wouldn't just create one simulation, 141 00:08:29,280 --> 00:08:31,280 Speaker 1: they would create millions of them. 142 00:08:31,840 --> 00:08:32,600 Speaker 2: Just like when. 143 00:08:32,400 --> 00:08:36,160 Speaker 1: Millions of kids here on Earth play say Minecraft, each 144 00:08:36,240 --> 00:08:39,920 Speaker 1: kid is creating a world with thousands or millions of 145 00:08:40,080 --> 00:08:44,320 Speaker 1: artificial beings in it, And so the argument goes, in 146 00:08:44,360 --> 00:08:48,240 Speaker 1: the whole universe there would be many more simulated beings 147 00:08:48,480 --> 00:08:52,200 Speaker 1: than real ones. So if you're a conscious being, meaning 148 00:08:52,360 --> 00:08:55,440 Speaker 1: some kind of entity that thinks they're real. Then the 149 00:08:55,480 --> 00:08:58,520 Speaker 1: odds that you are real are small. 150 00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:02,199 Speaker 2: So what that that means is, if you're the first 151 00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:05,560 Speaker 2: two alternatives, you have to accept the third one. And 152 00:09:05,600 --> 00:09:08,080 Speaker 2: then I argue that conditional that we should think we 153 00:09:08,120 --> 00:09:10,439 Speaker 2: are probably one of the simulated ones rather than one 154 00:09:10,440 --> 00:09:13,600 Speaker 2: of the exceptional non simulated ones. That we are almost 155 00:09:13,640 --> 00:09:18,439 Speaker 2: certainly living inside a computer simulation created by some technolically 156 00:09:18,520 --> 00:09:19,679 Speaker 2: advanced civilization. 157 00:09:21,440 --> 00:09:23,920 Speaker 1: So that is the main argument for the idea that 158 00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:27,800 Speaker 1: we're living in a simulation. It's a logical argument and 159 00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:31,960 Speaker 1: it's a betting argument. There are three possibilities. The first 160 00:09:31,960 --> 00:09:35,319 Speaker 1: two are not true, the third one must be true, 161 00:09:35,679 --> 00:09:38,600 Speaker 1: and that one says that there are advance civilizations out 162 00:09:38,640 --> 00:09:42,000 Speaker 1: there that are simulating millions and millions of virtual lives, 163 00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:44,560 Speaker 1: which means to us that you are one of them. 164 00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:48,160 Speaker 1: Is really high. Like if there are a million real 165 00:09:48,200 --> 00:09:51,520 Speaker 1: people out there, but there are trillions of simulated people 166 00:09:51,559 --> 00:09:54,600 Speaker 1: who think they are real, then the most likely thing 167 00:09:55,120 --> 00:09:58,200 Speaker 1: is that you are one of the simulated ones. Now, 168 00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:01,520 Speaker 1: as you can imagine, there are several big assumptions here. 169 00:10:01,800 --> 00:10:03,960 Speaker 1: The first one is that we could ever have the 170 00:10:04,000 --> 00:10:08,040 Speaker 1: technology to make these planet size relations of billions of brains. 171 00:10:08,360 --> 00:10:11,400 Speaker 1: And the second is that anyone would want to do this. 172 00:10:11,880 --> 00:10:14,720 Speaker 1: Here's how doctor Boston talks about the first assumption. 173 00:10:16,520 --> 00:10:18,800 Speaker 2: So a key premise here, which is that a technolgical 174 00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:22,680 Speaker 2: matricivilization would have enough computing power to run gazillions of 175 00:10:22,720 --> 00:10:26,000 Speaker 2: these simulations. Now, we currently don't have the ability to 176 00:10:26,080 --> 00:10:30,400 Speaker 2: create these simulations because we don't have that technological wherewithal yet, 177 00:10:30,440 --> 00:10:34,439 Speaker 2: but a technolgical mature civilization would have this capability. In fact, 178 00:10:34,840 --> 00:10:37,640 Speaker 2: you could say that even just using the resources of 179 00:10:37,760 --> 00:10:42,160 Speaker 2: a single planet, using only computational architectures that we already know, 180 00:10:42,240 --> 00:10:44,880 Speaker 2: would be possible. For one minute, they could run like 181 00:10:44,960 --> 00:10:47,560 Speaker 2: millions of simulations of all of the brains that have 182 00:10:47,640 --> 00:10:50,400 Speaker 2: existed throughout human history. If you can roughly estimate the 183 00:10:50,440 --> 00:10:52,520 Speaker 2: processing power of the human brain, you can count the 184 00:10:52,600 --> 00:10:56,800 Speaker 2: number of synopsies, the frequency with which they fire, et cetera, 185 00:10:56,880 --> 00:10:59,360 Speaker 2: and you still get the conclusion that, even if they 186 00:10:59,360 --> 00:11:03,000 Speaker 2: are only very slowly interested in this application, the number 187 00:11:03,040 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 2: of simulations one of these interested technologically matri civilization could 188 00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:10,400 Speaker 2: run over the course of its lifespan would be in 189 00:11:10,440 --> 00:11:12,040 Speaker 2: the trillions and trillions and trillions. 190 00:11:13,679 --> 00:11:16,280 Speaker 1: Okay, what doctor Boston is saying here is that if 191 00:11:16,320 --> 00:11:20,480 Speaker 1: a civilization is really advanced, and we're talking super futuristic 192 00:11:20,600 --> 00:11:23,480 Speaker 1: humans or aliens that have figured out things like fusion 193 00:11:23,640 --> 00:11:27,559 Speaker 1: energy and can build spaceships, mind asteroids, and conquer other planets, 194 00:11:27,840 --> 00:11:31,400 Speaker 1: then simulating a few billion or a few trillion human 195 00:11:31,440 --> 00:11:34,640 Speaker 1: brains would be easy for them. And you can sort 196 00:11:34,640 --> 00:11:37,480 Speaker 1: of see that even now, we have a huge amount 197 00:11:37,520 --> 00:11:40,760 Speaker 1: of computing power and we can simulate ais that can 198 00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:42,959 Speaker 1: solve most problems humans can. 199 00:11:43,640 --> 00:11:45,520 Speaker 2: And in this argument, you don't need. 200 00:11:45,360 --> 00:11:48,760 Speaker 1: All civilizations to reach this advanced point. If only a 201 00:11:48,920 --> 00:11:51,960 Speaker 1: few do, say one in one hundred or one in 202 00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:55,480 Speaker 1: a thousand, then that would be enough to simulate trillions 203 00:11:55,480 --> 00:11:59,680 Speaker 1: of fake people and outnumber the real ones. And the 204 00:11:59,679 --> 00:12:05,679 Speaker 1: second biggest emgine is why would anyone do this? Do 205 00:12:05,720 --> 00:12:09,640 Speaker 1: you see humanity making these simulations? Is there evidence right 206 00:12:09,640 --> 00:12:12,160 Speaker 1: now that we would make these if. 207 00:12:12,000 --> 00:12:14,760 Speaker 2: We were given the ability right now? If somehow some 208 00:12:14,800 --> 00:12:18,920 Speaker 2: scientists figured out how to just create vastly more powerful computers, 209 00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:21,520 Speaker 2: and if we had the ability to program them appropriately, 210 00:12:21,559 --> 00:12:23,080 Speaker 2: a lot of people would do it for all kinds 211 00:12:23,120 --> 00:12:26,400 Speaker 2: of reasons, like historical researchers would find it interesting to 212 00:12:26,480 --> 00:12:31,200 Speaker 2: run counterfactual runs of history. Game developers might have a 213 00:12:31,240 --> 00:12:34,360 Speaker 2: game setting where there are like real historical people. You 214 00:12:34,440 --> 00:12:37,360 Speaker 2: might want to visit an earlier era. You can't build 215 00:12:37,400 --> 00:12:39,679 Speaker 2: a time machine, so the second best you could do 216 00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:42,920 Speaker 2: would be to create a detailed simulation of this epoch 217 00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:44,960 Speaker 2: in the past, and then you could sort of visited 218 00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:47,520 Speaker 2: as a as a tourist. That might be many other 219 00:12:47,559 --> 00:12:50,480 Speaker 2: reasons as well, or for no reason, just for you know, 220 00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:53,200 Speaker 2: for the heck of it. So right now, yeah, we 221 00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:55,360 Speaker 2: would be running a lot of simulations if it was 222 00:12:55,440 --> 00:12:56,959 Speaker 2: cheap enough to do it easily. 223 00:12:58,360 --> 00:13:01,320 Speaker 1: Doctor Boston's point is that there are lots of reasons 224 00:13:01,320 --> 00:13:04,520 Speaker 1: to create such a massive simulation. It could be like 225 00:13:04,600 --> 00:13:08,400 Speaker 1: a video game, for that advanced revilization, or for research 226 00:13:08,679 --> 00:13:12,520 Speaker 1: or curiosity. And you don't need all futuristic civilizations to 227 00:13:12,559 --> 00:13:14,680 Speaker 1: do it. You just need one or two. 228 00:13:16,240 --> 00:13:19,720 Speaker 2: Now, we don't know that much about technogically mature civilizations, 229 00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:22,080 Speaker 2: so maybe there is this strong convergence, like they all 230 00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:25,160 Speaker 2: realize that it's like morally bad to do this, and 231 00:13:25,200 --> 00:13:28,200 Speaker 2: they all converge on the right ethic. But this second alternative, 232 00:13:28,240 --> 00:13:30,360 Speaker 2: it's hard to rule it out completely. But even if 233 00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:33,760 Speaker 2: most civilizations, say would somehow converge that they would not 234 00:13:33,920 --> 00:13:37,120 Speaker 2: run any of these simulations, like wouldn't one in a thousand, 235 00:13:37,320 --> 00:13:40,320 Speaker 2: one in a million somewhere in the universe do it, 236 00:13:40,360 --> 00:13:42,319 Speaker 2: then that would be not to generate enough of these 237 00:13:42,320 --> 00:13:44,680 Speaker 2: simulations that most people like us would be in the 238 00:13:44,720 --> 00:13:47,160 Speaker 2: simulations now. 239 00:13:47,200 --> 00:13:51,320 Speaker 1: In doctor Boston's original paper, he envisioned future humans running 240 00:13:51,360 --> 00:13:54,880 Speaker 1: a simulation of the past, meaning we think we're in 241 00:13:54,920 --> 00:13:58,000 Speaker 1: the year twenty twenty five right now, but really we're 242 00:13:58,080 --> 00:14:01,120 Speaker 1: in a computer running in the year ten thousand or 243 00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:05,000 Speaker 1: one hundred thousand that is built by one of our descendants. 244 00:14:05,679 --> 00:14:09,239 Speaker 1: But the argument in general also works with aliens. 245 00:14:10,600 --> 00:14:14,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, you could mutter a technodically mature civilization. One type 246 00:14:14,520 --> 00:14:17,680 Speaker 2: of simulation they could do would be simulations of people 247 00:14:17,760 --> 00:14:22,200 Speaker 2: like their ancestors or variations thereof Maybe they would simulate 248 00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:26,120 Speaker 2: people like us. You could also run simulations of potential aliens. Right, 249 00:14:26,200 --> 00:14:29,080 Speaker 2: you don't only have to simulate people you thought inhabited 250 00:14:29,720 --> 00:14:32,720 Speaker 2: your planet before, but you could. So all of those 251 00:14:32,760 --> 00:14:35,640 Speaker 2: are possible, and there would be this population of different 252 00:14:35,680 --> 00:14:40,600 Speaker 2: simulations and simulated creatures of potentially many different kinds like 253 00:14:40,680 --> 00:14:44,000 Speaker 2: the idea of Earth could be simulated and fake. Yeah, yeah, 254 00:14:44,080 --> 00:14:45,360 Speaker 2: that could be the case. 255 00:14:45,440 --> 00:14:48,680 Speaker 1: Yeah. Now what is your personal opinion? Do you think 256 00:14:48,720 --> 00:14:51,520 Speaker 1: that we are living in simulation? Or is your judge 257 00:14:51,560 --> 00:14:53,040 Speaker 1: just to think about these possibilities. 258 00:14:53,280 --> 00:14:55,840 Speaker 2: So I tend to pond on I've often asked, what, 259 00:14:55,960 --> 00:14:58,640 Speaker 2: like the probability is. I tend to like refrain from 260 00:14:58,640 --> 00:15:02,920 Speaker 2: giving a precise num. I do think it's a serious hypothesis. 261 00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:06,480 Speaker 2: I would assign it significant credence, but I haven't given 262 00:15:06,520 --> 00:15:10,320 Speaker 2: a particular specific number. And the simulation argument in and 263 00:15:10,360 --> 00:15:13,520 Speaker 2: of itself doesn't tell us that. It only tells us 264 00:15:13,520 --> 00:15:16,400 Speaker 2: that at least one of these three alternatives is true. 265 00:15:16,960 --> 00:15:20,160 Speaker 2: So if you wanted to conclude that the third alternative 266 00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:21,960 Speaker 2: is true, that is that we are in a simulation, 267 00:15:22,040 --> 00:15:25,000 Speaker 2: you wouldn't have to bring in some additional evidence to 268 00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:27,680 Speaker 2: rule out the other two. All right. 269 00:15:27,760 --> 00:15:30,320 Speaker 1: So that is the red pill, the argument that we 270 00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:33,600 Speaker 1: are living in a simulation, and it's compelling because it's 271 00:15:33,640 --> 00:15:38,240 Speaker 1: hard to rule out all other possibilities, or is it. 272 00:15:39,280 --> 00:15:42,080 Speaker 1: When we come back, we'll take the blue pill and 273 00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:44,600 Speaker 1: talk to a quantum scientist who's going to make the 274 00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:47,920 Speaker 1: case that we are not living in a simulation. And 275 00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:50,480 Speaker 1: then at the end, I'll offer you a third option 276 00:15:50,760 --> 00:15:55,000 Speaker 1: that gets even crazier. So stay with us. You're listening 277 00:15:55,040 --> 00:16:07,640 Speaker 1: to sign stuff. Welcome back the Bluepill. Here's the argument 278 00:16:07,720 --> 00:16:11,760 Speaker 1: for why we are probably not living inside a simulation. 279 00:16:12,440 --> 00:16:15,960 Speaker 1: If you skip ahead, here's the proposed scenario. You and 280 00:16:16,080 --> 00:16:18,920 Speaker 1: I and all eight billion people on the planet right 281 00:16:18,960 --> 00:16:20,720 Speaker 1: now are not real. 282 00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:22,280 Speaker 2: We are all. 283 00:16:22,040 --> 00:16:26,400 Speaker 1: Simulated beings living inside a computer program running on a 284 00:16:26,520 --> 00:16:30,960 Speaker 1: planet sized computer built by a super advanced future human 285 00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:35,640 Speaker 1: or alien civilization. And believe it or not, there is 286 00:16:35,680 --> 00:16:39,800 Speaker 1: a very compelling argument that this is true. But to 287 00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:42,440 Speaker 1: give us the counter argument that we are not living 288 00:16:42,440 --> 00:16:44,880 Speaker 1: in a simulation, I reached out to a couple of 289 00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:50,040 Speaker 1: quantum scientists who wrote a paper titled Probability and Consequences 290 00:16:50,080 --> 00:16:53,920 Speaker 1: of Living Inside a Computer Simulation, in which they argue 291 00:16:54,000 --> 00:16:58,720 Speaker 1: that we are probably not simulated. The authors, Alexander Bibou 292 00:16:58,880 --> 00:17:02,880 Speaker 1: and Guiz brazaar we're working on quantum cryptography when they 293 00:17:02,920 --> 00:17:06,880 Speaker 1: realize that quantum mechanics pretty much throws a big French 294 00:17:07,119 --> 00:17:11,399 Speaker 1: into the whole simulation argument. So here's my conversation with 295 00:17:11,480 --> 00:17:16,480 Speaker 1: the main author of that paper, doctor Alexander Bibo. All right, 296 00:17:16,480 --> 00:17:18,520 Speaker 1: doctor Bibo, thank you so much for joining us. 297 00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:19,399 Speaker 3: It's my pleasure. 298 00:17:19,680 --> 00:17:21,960 Speaker 1: The first thing I want to check is this is 299 00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:25,280 Speaker 1: you right, I'm talking to the real you, not a simulation. 300 00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:27,000 Speaker 2: As far as I know. 301 00:17:28,119 --> 00:17:31,400 Speaker 1: Well, we're talking today about this question of whether we're 302 00:17:31,440 --> 00:17:34,399 Speaker 1: living in a simulation. This is a pretty wild idea, 303 00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:37,520 Speaker 1: because you know, I go through my everyday life and 304 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:40,520 Speaker 1: feels like I'm in a real place. It feels like 305 00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:44,240 Speaker 1: I'm in actual reality. You wrote a paper arguing against 306 00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:46,960 Speaker 1: this idea. Yeah, now, please spend the next ten minutes 307 00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:49,119 Speaker 1: trying to convince me we are not in a simulation. 308 00:17:49,600 --> 00:17:51,800 Speaker 3: The big thing that in Bostrom's paper and what people 309 00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:54,680 Speaker 3: have this argument discount is the fact that you don't 310 00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:56,920 Speaker 3: need to only simulate the brains of the people living 311 00:17:56,960 --> 00:17:59,520 Speaker 3: in the simulations, but you need to simulate their whole world. 312 00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:03,920 Speaker 3: For instance, this idea that you could build a bunch 313 00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:08,159 Speaker 3: of brains with just a small amount of matter optimize 314 00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:11,000 Speaker 3: according to all the laws of physics, the number of 315 00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:14,320 Speaker 3: brains that could simulate is really really high. That initially like, 316 00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:18,359 Speaker 3: it's very much in favor of their being more simulated beings. Okay, 317 00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:22,000 Speaker 3: but building all this world around these simulated beings will 318 00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:25,840 Speaker 3: require that same level of power, and physics can get 319 00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:29,440 Speaker 3: very complicated, especially quantum physics can be very complicated to simulate. 320 00:18:29,720 --> 00:18:31,919 Speaker 3: So it ends up canceling out, and it ends up 321 00:18:31,960 --> 00:18:34,120 Speaker 3: not being such an argument in favor of there being 322 00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:38,919 Speaker 3: so many more simulated beings. Mathematically speaking, okay, the first 323 00:18:39,040 --> 00:18:41,840 Speaker 3: argument against the idea that we're living in a simulation 324 00:18:42,320 --> 00:18:44,560 Speaker 3: is the fact that it's really hard to make a 325 00:18:44,600 --> 00:18:48,840 Speaker 3: simulation of reality. According to doctor Bibo, you not only. 326 00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:51,639 Speaker 1: Have to simulate a human brain, which is the most 327 00:18:51,640 --> 00:18:54,960 Speaker 1: complex arrangement of matter we know about, but you also 328 00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:58,320 Speaker 1: have to simulate the physical world around that brain, and 329 00:18:58,359 --> 00:19:01,800 Speaker 1: it's especially hard if you make your simulation accurate to 330 00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:05,480 Speaker 1: the level of quantum physics. So whereas before you might 331 00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:08,080 Speaker 1: say that it would be very easy for an advanced 332 00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:12,600 Speaker 1: alien or humans flization to simulate trillions of sentient beings. 333 00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:14,639 Speaker 2: And therefore make it more likely that we are. 334 00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:20,040 Speaker 1: Simulated beings, doctor People argues, it's not that easy. 335 00:19:20,119 --> 00:19:23,879 Speaker 3: It's very hard computationally speaking, to simulate whole worlds, okay, 336 00:19:24,119 --> 00:19:27,399 Speaker 3: especially cold worlds in which there is quantum physics. Okay, 337 00:19:27,600 --> 00:19:29,920 Speaker 3: because quantum computations are inefficient. 338 00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:31,960 Speaker 1: Like if someone were to make a video game and 339 00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:35,040 Speaker 1: we're in that video game, most of their computer, most 340 00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:38,320 Speaker 1: of their PlayStation thirteen would have to be spent running 341 00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:39,280 Speaker 1: quantum physics on. 342 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:42,399 Speaker 3: It, exactly, exactly, especially if inside the video game they 343 00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:44,080 Speaker 3: don't know they're in a video game and they're starting 344 00:19:44,080 --> 00:19:46,480 Speaker 3: to be curious about their world and they're trying to 345 00:19:46,520 --> 00:19:50,000 Speaker 3: perform like quantum physics experiments, like these scientists are at 346 00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:53,000 Speaker 3: work trying to verify that quantum mechanics is being respected 347 00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:56,000 Speaker 3: as some of our quantum scientists are. It would require 348 00:19:56,040 --> 00:19:58,560 Speaker 3: all the computing power of their advanced PlayStation and the 349 00:19:58,600 --> 00:20:01,360 Speaker 3: game would slow down to a crawl. This is the argument. 350 00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:05,560 Speaker 1: So that's one of the arguments against the idea that 351 00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:08,640 Speaker 1: we are living in a simulation. It's very hard to 352 00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:13,200 Speaker 1: simulate quantum physics. You either need a quantum computer, which 353 00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:15,919 Speaker 1: are really hard to make, or you end up spending 354 00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:19,320 Speaker 1: most of your computing power calculating all of the different 355 00:20:19,359 --> 00:20:23,560 Speaker 1: probabilities that happen all at once in quantum systems. And 356 00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:25,400 Speaker 1: if you want to know more about this, check out 357 00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:29,119 Speaker 1: our episode on quantum computers. Now some people have argued, 358 00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:33,600 Speaker 1: including doctor Bostram himself that a simulated reality doesn't need 359 00:20:33,600 --> 00:20:37,440 Speaker 1: to simulate quantum physics, at least not all the time. 360 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:42,400 Speaker 1: They could use something called procedural generation. Here's how doctor 361 00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:43,679 Speaker 1: Bostrom describes it. 362 00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:47,359 Speaker 2: In these simulations, you would need a simulation of the 363 00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:51,439 Speaker 2: environment to generate the experiences that these simulated brains have, 364 00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:55,040 Speaker 2: but you wouldn't have to simulate the environment in perfect detail. 365 00:20:55,119 --> 00:20:57,240 Speaker 2: You would only need to simulate the aspects of the 366 00:20:57,320 --> 00:21:01,000 Speaker 2: environment that the simulated brains person eve at a given 367 00:21:01,000 --> 00:21:03,520 Speaker 2: point in time. So it's not the case that every 368 00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:06,160 Speaker 2: single atom in the desk in front of you would 369 00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:09,439 Speaker 2: be simulated continuously, let alone the quarks and stuff. Right. 370 00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:12,600 Speaker 2: I think that that would add massive demands on how 371 00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:14,560 Speaker 2: much computing power it would take, and it would soon 372 00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:19,000 Speaker 2: become infeasible even with like really advanced technology. But all 373 00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:21,639 Speaker 2: that would be required is that the surface appearances of 374 00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:24,399 Speaker 2: your desk are simulated sufficiently that it looks to you 375 00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:25,880 Speaker 2: fully realistic. 376 00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:26,080 Speaker 1: Right. 377 00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:29,840 Speaker 2: And then let's say some physicists in a lab like 378 00:21:30,040 --> 00:21:32,480 Speaker 2: took an electron microscope and looked at a piece of 379 00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:36,720 Speaker 2: your desk, right that they could see potentially individual molecules, right, 380 00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:39,920 Speaker 2: than atoms. So at that point more detail would have 381 00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:42,040 Speaker 2: to be filled in in the simulation, but only in 382 00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:44,240 Speaker 2: the particular piece that they were looking at, so it 383 00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:46,200 Speaker 2: would be sort of procedurally generated. 384 00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:49,959 Speaker 1: This is what's done in a lot of video games today, 385 00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:53,760 Speaker 1: like Minecraft or the Legend of Zelda, where a character 386 00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:57,800 Speaker 1: is free to walk around a huge virtual environment. The 387 00:21:57,800 --> 00:22:01,320 Speaker 1: computer doesn't need to simulate the entire world, just the 388 00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:04,359 Speaker 1: parts that the character sees, and just at the level 389 00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:07,399 Speaker 1: that matters to them. So if a mountain is far away, 390 00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:10,800 Speaker 1: you don't need to simulate every atom or quantum particle 391 00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:13,560 Speaker 1: of that mountain. You can just simulate it as a 392 00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:16,840 Speaker 1: big block or even the table in front of you 393 00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:19,520 Speaker 1: to tap it or put your hand on it. You 394 00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:22,920 Speaker 1: don't actually have to simulate it at the atomic level. 395 00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:26,400 Speaker 1: This would make it easier to simulate a whole reality, 396 00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:30,160 Speaker 1: and therefore make it more likely we are in a simulation, 397 00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:36,520 Speaker 1: But as doctor Bibaut counter argues, it has its limits, and. 398 00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:39,280 Speaker 3: The people who argue for this high probability that we 399 00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:41,399 Speaker 3: are in a simulation, we don't need such higher rate 400 00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:43,439 Speaker 3: of input in order for it to feel real. You know, 401 00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:45,480 Speaker 3: you can play a video game which is fully immersive 402 00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:47,480 Speaker 3: with not much better technology than what we have now. 403 00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:49,600 Speaker 3: You could have like a screen which shows you something 404 00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:53,400 Speaker 3: which to your eyes is indistinguishable for reality. This is true, 405 00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:55,719 Speaker 3: but in order for that world to be coherent and 406 00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:58,480 Speaker 3: for it to like show no inconsistencies in the laws 407 00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:01,439 Speaker 3: of physics everywhere, it has a very very high cost. 408 00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:03,800 Speaker 1: Like right now in our reality. In our world, there 409 00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:07,760 Speaker 1: are physicists running the Large Hadron Collider in Geneva. They 410 00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:11,119 Speaker 1: have atomic microscopes looking down at Adams. If someone is 411 00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:14,199 Speaker 1: simulating our reality, they would also have to simulate like 412 00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:17,320 Speaker 1: every physicist poking around at the atomic level. 413 00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:20,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly, all this stuff in a completely coherent way, 414 00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:23,120 Speaker 3: in a way that no one would find contradictions in 415 00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:25,439 Speaker 3: and all that stuff. Yeah, that would be crazy to do. 416 00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:28,520 Speaker 3: I'm not saying it's impossible. What I'm saying maybe one 417 00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:31,000 Speaker 3: day we will do this, but we will not be 418 00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:33,200 Speaker 3: able to do it on such a scale that we're 419 00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:35,960 Speaker 3: able to drive the number of simulated consciousness higher than 420 00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:37,720 Speaker 3: what there is in reality as far as I can talk. 421 00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:42,960 Speaker 2: Okay, Now, the second argument against the idea we're in 422 00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:47,600 Speaker 2: a simulation is that while a futuristic civilization might be 423 00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:52,359 Speaker 2: interested in simulating reality. They may not be that interested. 424 00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:55,880 Speaker 2: It might not be that much fun for anyone. 425 00:23:57,440 --> 00:23:59,760 Speaker 3: When you have advanced computer the second factor that remains 426 00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:02,800 Speaker 3: is how much of it do you spend on these 427 00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:04,520 Speaker 3: simulations versus on other things? 428 00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:05,200 Speaker 2: What do you mean? 429 00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:06,919 Speaker 3: What I mean is that even if you have these 430 00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:11,160 Speaker 3: advanced computers and someone somewhere like is running all that stuff, 431 00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:14,040 Speaker 3: you need to run other things too, presumably right, and 432 00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:17,280 Speaker 3: you're not just using your computers for simulating brains right now? 433 00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:20,280 Speaker 3: What proportion of all the computing power in the world 434 00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:23,080 Speaker 3: is used to simulate brains? A very small amount. Everything 435 00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:27,080 Speaker 3: else is used to show ads again whatever, for like blockchain, 436 00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:29,080 Speaker 3: or for for a bunch of other purposes. We use 437 00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:32,720 Speaker 3: computing power for everything else. What proportion of all the 438 00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:35,440 Speaker 3: computing power that you do have in your real civilization 439 00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:38,919 Speaker 3: do you use to simulate a world which is indistinguishable 440 00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:41,720 Speaker 3: from reality. So let's say even if your simulation was 441 00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:45,200 Speaker 3: perfectly efficient, then it only used one quantum bit in 442 00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:47,440 Speaker 3: the simulation, which is impossible. But let's say you could 443 00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:50,800 Speaker 3: you spend more computing power on other things, more computing 444 00:24:50,840 --> 00:24:55,600 Speaker 3: power on cryptography than on simulations, for instance. Okay, you 445 00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:58,200 Speaker 3: would still have fewer simulated people than real people. 446 00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:02,439 Speaker 1: So if it was easy and everybody was trying to 447 00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:05,040 Speaker 1: play God in their home computers, then the number of 448 00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:09,439 Speaker 1: simulated realities is huge. Yeah, and we're very likely to 449 00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:12,399 Speaker 1: live in a simulation. But you're saying no, it's a 450 00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:15,480 Speaker 1: really hard and b from what we know over the 451 00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:18,040 Speaker 1: world around us, not everyone is playing PlayStation at the 452 00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:18,520 Speaker 1: same time. 453 00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:20,800 Speaker 3: And sometimes even if we had a very advanced civilization, 454 00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:23,240 Speaker 3: you would not necessarily play games in which the other 455 00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:26,040 Speaker 3: characters are conscious. And see a world that looks like this, 456 00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:28,720 Speaker 3: you might still prefer to play like Super Mario two, 457 00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:32,159 Speaker 3: you know, which, like the Little Turtle guys are clearly 458 00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:32,880 Speaker 3: not conscious. 459 00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:37,720 Speaker 1: The aliens prefer retro games. Maybe all right, that was 460 00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:40,359 Speaker 1: the blue pill. When we come back, we're going to 461 00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:43,880 Speaker 1: ask our two experts how we might settle this debate. 462 00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:47,680 Speaker 1: Could we ever tell if we are living in a simulation? 463 00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:50,040 Speaker 1: And then at the end, I'm going to offer you 464 00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:53,600 Speaker 1: a purple pill, which I have to warn you might 465 00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:57,159 Speaker 1: blow your mind, whether it's simulated or not. 466 00:25:57,680 --> 00:25:59,880 Speaker 2: So stay with us. We'll be right back. 467 00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:11,320 Speaker 1: And we're back, all right, Whether you took the red 468 00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:14,760 Speaker 1: pill or the blue pill, or maybe both. You might 469 00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:17,000 Speaker 1: be wondering if we could ever tell that we are 470 00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:20,880 Speaker 1: living in a simulation, How can we know if we're 471 00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:24,439 Speaker 1: living in the matrix. I asked both our experts this question, 472 00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:28,680 Speaker 1: and this is what they said, Could we ever tell 473 00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:31,080 Speaker 1: if we were one of those simulated consciousness? 474 00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:34,000 Speaker 2: So that would depend on the simulation. So if the 475 00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:37,879 Speaker 2: simulators wanted to reveal this curtly to do that, you 476 00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:40,119 Speaker 2: could imagine like a window popping up in front of 477 00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:42,600 Speaker 2: your visual field saying here, you're in a simulation. Click 478 00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:44,639 Speaker 2: here for more information. Right, that would be a pretty 479 00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:48,680 Speaker 2: conclusive proof. Short of that, I think there are indicators 480 00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:52,240 Speaker 2: that the closer we get to technological maturity, the less 481 00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:55,280 Speaker 2: likely the first alternative becomes. Right, Like, if we look 482 00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:58,440 Speaker 2: like we're almost there, then it doesn't seem the case 483 00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:01,639 Speaker 2: that almost all civilizations that our current level will go 484 00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:05,280 Speaker 2: extinct before reaching technogical maturity. I see, And if we 485 00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:10,240 Speaker 2: at that point remain interested in creating ancestors simulations ourselves, 486 00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:13,000 Speaker 2: just like we right now run a lot of computer 487 00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:16,359 Speaker 2: grames and three D virtual realities and scientific simulations for 488 00:27:16,400 --> 00:27:19,520 Speaker 2: all kinds of purposes. Right, if that remains the case 489 00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:21,400 Speaker 2: as we get really close to being able to do 490 00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:24,119 Speaker 2: this ourselves. That would really start to roll out the 491 00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:28,040 Speaker 2: first two alternatives, and it would then force us to 492 00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:31,600 Speaker 2: infer that we are almost certainly simulated ourselves. 493 00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:36,119 Speaker 1: Let's say we were looking for evidence that we are 494 00:27:36,560 --> 00:27:38,800 Speaker 1: not or that we are living in simulations. What are 495 00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:40,560 Speaker 1: some of the things we could be looking out for. 496 00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:42,879 Speaker 3: One of the things I do mention in the paper 497 00:27:43,119 --> 00:27:45,280 Speaker 3: is that if you're looking for violations of these laws 498 00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:47,119 Speaker 3: of physics, they could be very subtle. They could just 499 00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:50,600 Speaker 3: be errors in quantum correlations. So some of the experiments 500 00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:54,080 Speaker 3: we perform to understand how quantum mechanics work, they could 501 00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:56,480 Speaker 3: have noise that we're not able to explain. And same 502 00:27:56,480 --> 00:27:59,440 Speaker 3: thing when we're doing quantum cryptography. In quantum cryptography, your 503 00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:01,720 Speaker 3: piece to p people at the end, they're exchanging information 504 00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:04,200 Speaker 3: on something which is a quantum channel. And if there 505 00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:07,200 Speaker 3: is noise in this experiment in this communication, usually you say, oh, 506 00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:10,120 Speaker 3: the noise is there because someone is puying on the information. 507 00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:12,480 Speaker 3: Someone is trying to intercept part of these photons to 508 00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:15,800 Speaker 3: get information out of them. If this was happening, if 509 00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:18,240 Speaker 3: you do see noise and no one can explain away, 510 00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:21,040 Speaker 3: this could be an indication, for instance, that we are 511 00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:24,080 Speaker 3: in a simulation and that these correlations in physics are 512 00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:26,480 Speaker 3: violated because there is either a bug in the simulation 513 00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:28,760 Speaker 3: or they're using part of this information to look into 514 00:28:28,760 --> 00:28:30,240 Speaker 3: what's happening in our world. 515 00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:32,280 Speaker 1: I see, like, if we test the lots of physics 516 00:28:32,320 --> 00:28:35,560 Speaker 1: and we find errors or weird things happening, then that 517 00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:36,560 Speaker 1: might be a clue. 518 00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:37,160 Speaker 2: That we're in a simulation. 519 00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:38,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, I believe so. 520 00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:40,320 Speaker 2: But do they have to be at the quantum level? 521 00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:43,160 Speaker 3: This is probably where they would happen, because it's much 522 00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:46,560 Speaker 3: harder to get quantum computations correctly without noise than it 523 00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:49,400 Speaker 3: is that anything else to happen. You cannot observe it 524 00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:52,560 Speaker 3: without disturbing it. In that sense, if the laws of 525 00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:55,480 Speaker 3: physics are truly quantum, and we have good reason to 526 00:28:55,480 --> 00:28:58,640 Speaker 3: believe that they are, then even from outside the simulation, 527 00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:02,560 Speaker 3: trying to observe them in that way could disturb them 528 00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:03,920 Speaker 3: in a way which we could measure. 529 00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:08,640 Speaker 1: Okay, So to tell if we are in a simulation, 530 00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:11,560 Speaker 1: you can do one of two things. You can look 531 00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:14,240 Speaker 1: at the world around us and see how it affects 532 00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:17,760 Speaker 1: the philosophical argument. For example, if it looks like our 533 00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:21,120 Speaker 1: civilization is about to crash and burn, then maybe that's 534 00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:25,160 Speaker 1: common and there aren't any advanced civilizations out there. Or 535 00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:28,120 Speaker 1: if we find that playing video games or running realistic 536 00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:31,440 Speaker 1: simulations is not a high priority for us, then maybe 537 00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:35,760 Speaker 1: it's not for any civilizations out there either. The other 538 00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:37,760 Speaker 1: thing you can do to tell if we're in a 539 00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:41,320 Speaker 1: simulation is you can look for glitches in the matrix. 540 00:29:41,800 --> 00:29:44,920 Speaker 1: If you run quantum experiments and find that things don't 541 00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:47,240 Speaker 1: quite add up, then that may be a sign that 542 00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:51,560 Speaker 1: we are simulated. Or as doctor Bobo said, you could 543 00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:55,320 Speaker 1: try to break the simulation. You could overtax it, maybe 544 00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:58,200 Speaker 1: by doing a lot of quantum experiments or running your 545 00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:04,680 Speaker 1: own simulations within the simulation, although that could be dangerous. 546 00:30:06,320 --> 00:30:08,400 Speaker 1: So poking at the loss of physics is one way 547 00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:10,360 Speaker 1: to test whether we're in a box or not. 548 00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:14,920 Speaker 3: There are other ways, which could be trying to make 549 00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:18,400 Speaker 3: our own simulation, so trying to keep acquiring technology and 550 00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:20,920 Speaker 3: increasing our computational power and trying to make our own 551 00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:23,760 Speaker 3: simulated worlds. If we use too much, I mean, we 552 00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:25,640 Speaker 3: could be slowing down their simulation and they could be 553 00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:28,040 Speaker 3: tempted to turn it off or to do something about it. 554 00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:31,000 Speaker 3: Which maybe is not so smart if we think we 555 00:30:31,000 --> 00:30:31,800 Speaker 3: are in a simulation. 556 00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:36,080 Speaker 1: So yeah, if we are in a simulation, maybe we 557 00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:38,320 Speaker 1: don't want to do anything that might make whoever is 558 00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:44,240 Speaker 1: running the simulation stop because it may not matter. Here's 559 00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:47,920 Speaker 1: the last question I asked, doctor Buster. Do you think 560 00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:51,480 Speaker 1: there's a difference between a simulated reality and a real reality? 561 00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:53,880 Speaker 2: Well, that depends that on the simulation. I think that 562 00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:57,240 Speaker 2: could be very close. If the simulators wanted to make 563 00:30:57,280 --> 00:30:59,360 Speaker 2: it as accurate as possible, I think that could make 564 00:30:59,400 --> 00:31:02,360 Speaker 2: it pretty accurate. And if ever there were like some 565 00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:05,080 Speaker 2: glitch or some anomaly, then they could sort of edit 566 00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:08,120 Speaker 2: the memories of whoever detected that or sort of patch 567 00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:11,280 Speaker 2: things up. You imagine these simulators as being super intolent. 568 00:31:11,480 --> 00:31:13,200 Speaker 2: One of the things that could do with our advanced 569 00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:15,560 Speaker 2: technology would be to make themselves smarter. 570 00:31:15,840 --> 00:31:18,840 Speaker 1: Well, I really appreciate your time here, and it's been 571 00:31:18,840 --> 00:31:20,880 Speaker 1: a real experience to talk with you, hopefully not a 572 00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:21,520 Speaker 1: simulated one. 573 00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:25,040 Speaker 2: The experience is real now, the implementation of it is 574 00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:28,240 Speaker 2: more hidden in a shroud of uncertainty. 575 00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:32,920 Speaker 1: I guess all right. The last thing I'm going to 576 00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:36,840 Speaker 1: do is offer you a purple pill. This is an 577 00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:40,160 Speaker 1: idea that might be even crazier than the idea that 578 00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:42,600 Speaker 1: we're all living in a simulation put on by some 579 00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:46,280 Speaker 1: alien civilization out there in space, an idea that came 580 00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:49,040 Speaker 1: up when I was talking to doctor Bubo about how 581 00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:53,000 Speaker 1: he got interested in the idea of a simulated universe. 582 00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:58,400 Speaker 3: So basically I was working on seeing physics as a 583 00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:03,200 Speaker 3: potentially computation no thing, saying like, okay, like could physics 584 00:32:03,280 --> 00:32:06,200 Speaker 3: at its most base level be a computation? 585 00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:08,760 Speaker 2: What do you mean physics being a computation? 586 00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:11,040 Speaker 3: So saying that if you're trying to understand the laws 587 00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:13,960 Speaker 3: of physics, a good way to understand it is from 588 00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:18,000 Speaker 3: the perspective of what is the informational content of physics 589 00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:21,880 Speaker 3: and what we perceive as time evolution of systems. How 590 00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:24,840 Speaker 3: could this represent a type of computation? You would say 591 00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:26,480 Speaker 3: that at some point this would mean that on the 592 00:32:26,520 --> 00:32:29,440 Speaker 3: most microscopic level, space and time are discrete. 593 00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:31,480 Speaker 1: And I think you're saying that maybe the laws of 594 00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:33,600 Speaker 1: physics are just a program. 595 00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:38,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, any physical system, because it's state changes with time, 596 00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:40,960 Speaker 3: and it's taking like an input state, doing something and 597 00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:43,960 Speaker 3: getting an output state at the end, it's performing a computation. 598 00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:46,840 Speaker 3: So in some sense, the laws of physics as a 599 00:32:46,840 --> 00:32:48,120 Speaker 3: whole could also do that. 600 00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:50,960 Speaker 1: Maybe, like the laws of physics were a program, but 601 00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:52,960 Speaker 1: they weren't running in a computer. They were just running 602 00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:53,120 Speaker 1: on the. 603 00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:56,040 Speaker 3: Universe exactly exactly. The universe is kind of like a 604 00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:58,000 Speaker 3: natural computer that just happens to be there. 605 00:33:00,240 --> 00:33:04,480 Speaker 1: In other words, the real actual universe itself could be 606 00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:09,080 Speaker 1: a simulation, which means the answer to the question are 607 00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:13,760 Speaker 1: we living in a simulation could be yes, but it's 608 00:33:13,760 --> 00:33:17,840 Speaker 1: a simulation that is being run by no one. As 609 00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:23,600 Speaker 1: Neo famously said in The Matrix WHOA. Thanks for joining us, 610 00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:29,520 Speaker 1: see you next Wednesday. You've been listening to Science Stuff 611 00:33:29,720 --> 00:33:33,520 Speaker 1: production of iHeartRadio, written and produced by me or Hm, 612 00:33:34,000 --> 00:33:38,040 Speaker 1: candited by Rose Seguda, executive producer Jerry Rowland, and audio 613 00:33:38,080 --> 00:33:41,040 Speaker 1: engineer and mixer Kasey Pegram. And you can follow me 614 00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:44,120 Speaker 1: on social media to search for PhD comics and the 615 00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:46,840 Speaker 1: name of your favorite platform. Be sure to subscribe to 616 00:33:46,920 --> 00:33:50,240 Speaker 1: Sign Stuff on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever 617 00:33:50,360 --> 00:33:53,480 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, and please tell your friends We'll 618 00:33:53,520 --> 00:34:04,800 Speaker 1: be back next Wednesday with another episode.