WEBVTT - War in Iran Is Exposing Oil Risks Across Asia 0:00:03.080 --> 0:00:09.880 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. For much of the 0:00:09.960 --> 0:00:12.880 past week, oil and gas traders have been bracing for 0:00:12.960 --> 0:00:16.120 a worst case scenario, and they're now watching it. 0:00:16.079 --> 0:00:19.120 Unfold around, effectively shutting down the Strait. 0:00:18.800 --> 0:00:19.440 Of hor Mooz. 0:00:19.720 --> 0:00:22.360 It is at a standstill, so no oil is going 0:00:22.360 --> 0:00:22.840 in or out. 0:00:23.000 --> 0:00:26.480 China's government telling the country's largest oil refiners to suspend 0:00:26.600 --> 0:00:30.920 exports of diesel and gasoline. The confrontation between the United 0:00:30.920 --> 0:00:34.680 States Israel in Iran has entered a volatile new phase, 0:00:35.240 --> 0:00:38.760 one that puts oil reserves and critical infrastructure directly in 0:00:38.840 --> 0:00:43.000 the crosshairs. Iran is widening his response now aiming to 0:00:43.080 --> 0:00:47.199 paralyze the economic lifeblood of this region oil and gas production. 0:00:47.600 --> 0:00:50.200 Very interesting announcement from the President saying that the US 0:00:50.240 --> 0:00:54.600 are looking to provide naval escorts and to lower insurance 0:00:54.640 --> 0:00:57.200 costs for any vessels and tankers looking to pass through 0:00:57.200 --> 0:00:57.680 the streets. 0:00:58.400 --> 0:01:00.560 The Strait of Hormose is one of the world's most 0:01:00.600 --> 0:01:03.680 critical choke points. As much as twenty percent of the 0:01:03.720 --> 0:01:07.200 world's oil passes through the strait each day, and it's 0:01:07.240 --> 0:01:10.199 remained effectively closed since the conflict began. 0:01:10.840 --> 0:01:13.400 Nobody can close the streets of homos for too long. 0:01:13.800 --> 0:01:16.200 So you close that, you have a global crisis. 0:01:16.600 --> 0:01:19.600 Verridin Fesher Raki is the founder and chairman of Energy 0:01:19.600 --> 0:01:21.399 consulting Group FGE. 0:01:21.840 --> 0:01:24.000 If you keep it closed in the price of oil, 0:01:24.040 --> 0:01:26.640 we'll go through the roof. The French and the British 0:01:27.160 --> 0:01:30.560 will surely get involved, and I think maybe Chinese get 0:01:30.560 --> 0:01:33.600 involved too. Everybody has to marry three get involved, because 0:01:33.600 --> 0:01:38.039 that is creating a crisis, worst possible recession, global recession. 0:01:38.400 --> 0:01:41.720 And Iran is just too small fish to be able 0:01:41.760 --> 0:01:43.400 to close the strait of hormos. 0:01:43.920 --> 0:01:46.640 But even if the fighting never reaches that worst case 0:01:46.640 --> 0:01:50.960 scenario for oil markets, countries across Asia, the world's biggest 0:01:51.000 --> 0:01:54.960 buyers of Middle Eastern energy, are bracing for potential shockwaves. 0:01:55.440 --> 0:01:58.960 Japan is very exposed, South Korea is exposed. China buys 0:01:59.000 --> 0:02:04.440 a lot of Iran oil, Taiwan, India, Pakistan has most 0:02:04.480 --> 0:02:06.640 of its guests coming from Qatar. 0:02:07.440 --> 0:02:11.680 Daniel tan Kate oversees Bloomberg's political and economic coverage in Asia. 0:02:12.600 --> 0:02:15.880 It's pretty much affecting every economy in Asia. Not just 0:02:16.040 --> 0:02:19.839 yet because it's still early days. But if you do 0:02:19.919 --> 0:02:25.720 have prolonged sustained rise in oil prices that is inherently 0:02:25.760 --> 0:02:29.480 going to affect most economies in Asia because they buy 0:02:29.520 --> 0:02:30.120 a lot of oil. 0:02:38.919 --> 0:02:42.239 This is the big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm Wanha. 0:02:42.680 --> 0:02:45.000 Every week we take you inside some of the world's 0:02:45.000 --> 0:02:48.960 biggest and most powerful economies and we explore the markets, tycoons, 0:02:49.000 --> 0:02:52.960 and businesses that drive this ever shifting region. Today on 0:02:53.000 --> 0:02:56.640 the show, Asia's biggest economies react to war in the 0:02:56.680 --> 0:03:00.240 Middle East, how the Iran war is rippling through glowble 0:03:00.280 --> 0:03:03.840 oil markets, and which Asian economies are most at risk 0:03:04.000 --> 0:03:11.000 to a large scale disruption. Since last year, China has 0:03:11.040 --> 0:03:16.120 been factoring in the uncertainty surrounding Iranian oil, quietly stockpiling 0:03:16.200 --> 0:03:20.160 crude at onshore sites. While China buys up some ninety 0:03:20.200 --> 0:03:23.240 percent of Iran's oil, those barrels account for less than 0:03:23.280 --> 0:03:27.960 fifteen percent of Beijing's overall oil imports. Russia and Saudi 0:03:28.000 --> 0:03:32.200 Arabia remain China's biggest suppliers, and that's unlikely to change 0:03:32.240 --> 0:03:35.960 anytime soon. But there's a big reason why China is concerned. 0:03:36.240 --> 0:03:39.160 About half of its crude imports passed through the Strait of. 0:03:39.240 --> 0:03:45.400 Ormus twenty percent of the global supply crude oil and 0:03:45.520 --> 0:03:48.960 refined products go through the Straits of Hormones, Soaudis have 0:03:49.080 --> 0:03:52.680 a pipeline to the Red Sea of around two million 0:03:52.680 --> 0:03:55.880 partters per day. Abu Dhabi has a pipeline of about 0:03:55.880 --> 0:03:58.320 a million day and a half partus per day outside 0:03:58.360 --> 0:04:02.480 the Gulf, but beyond there are no other pipelines. Beyond 0:04:02.520 --> 0:04:04.520 that is only the Strese of Horbos. 0:04:05.160 --> 0:04:07.840 When the US and Israel attacked Iran late last week, 0:04:08.120 --> 0:04:12.800 China's response was immediate and pointed. My colleague Daniel ten Kate, 0:04:12.920 --> 0:04:16.719 who covers China's economy and political landscape for Bloomberg, says 0:04:16.760 --> 0:04:21.119 it underscored just how dependent China is on Gulf oil. 0:04:21.800 --> 0:04:25.640 Beijing has basically come out and opposed what's going on. 0:04:25.800 --> 0:04:29.520 We had very strong words from Chinese Foreign Minister Wangi. 0:04:30.240 --> 0:04:33.719 He called it unacceptable to openly kill the leader of 0:04:33.720 --> 0:04:37.559 a sovereign country and institute regime change. So that's very frank, 0:04:37.760 --> 0:04:42.839 very strong language from China opposing this. At the same time, 0:04:43.160 --> 0:04:47.160 they really want to calm things down. So after that statement, 0:04:47.680 --> 0:04:51.440 we had another statement from China saying that Iran also 0:04:51.560 --> 0:04:54.960 needed to respect the reasonable interests of its neighboring states. 0:04:55.720 --> 0:04:59.880 Iran's oil influence has diminished due to prolonged sanctions and 0:05:00.080 --> 0:05:03.800 limited foreign investment. Today, the country accounts for just about 0:05:03.800 --> 0:05:07.360 three percent of global oil supply, producing about three point 0:05:07.360 --> 0:05:11.720 three million barrels a day. Doctor Fesheraki, you're originally from 0:05:11.760 --> 0:05:14.919 Iran and you spent many years living and working there. 0:05:15.400 --> 0:05:19.680 Broadly speaking, how important is Iranian oil to the rest 0:05:19.720 --> 0:05:20.200 of the world. 0:05:20.400 --> 0:05:23.719 I any non production is three and a half million 0:05:23.720 --> 0:05:27.080 matters per day, but all the liquids combined are more 0:05:27.120 --> 0:05:29.560 than five million matters per day, so it's quite important. 0:05:30.040 --> 0:05:33.960 But the oil sales only go to China crude oil sales, 0:05:34.279 --> 0:05:39.560 so it is important only for China. But Chinese can 0:05:39.640 --> 0:05:42.799 replace the Iranian oil right away with other the distant cruds, 0:05:43.080 --> 0:05:46.360 except that they can't receive any discount. They have to 0:05:46.400 --> 0:05:48.719 pay the real market price for it. But it is 0:05:48.760 --> 0:05:51.200 not the case that somehow if the Rnian crude is 0:05:51.200 --> 0:05:55.600 not there, they would be damage to the Chinese security 0:05:55.680 --> 0:05:58.760 or fenergy supplies. Oil is available in the market. 0:06:00.120 --> 0:06:04.479 Thursday, China's government ordered its largest refiners to suspend exports 0:06:04.480 --> 0:06:07.600 of diesel and gasoline as the Middle East crisis deepens. 0:06:08.000 --> 0:06:10.719 China. They want to make sure that their domestic interests 0:06:10.720 --> 0:06:13.359 are not hurt first. That's the top priority, and that 0:06:13.480 --> 0:06:16.200 means getting the oil to flow. Now, if the oil 0:06:16.279 --> 0:06:20.640 is flowing and you have this low level kind of 0:06:20.680 --> 0:06:23.680 fighting going on where the US has to devote a 0:06:23.720 --> 0:06:26.000 lot of attention and resources to the Middle East and 0:06:26.080 --> 0:06:29.200 military assets to the Middle East, but there's not huge 0:06:29.200 --> 0:06:33.039 economic disruption, I think that's the scenario that China would 0:06:33.120 --> 0:06:34.520 not mind seeing. 0:06:35.160 --> 0:06:37.680 If the oil and Iran couldn't flow to China, what 0:06:37.680 --> 0:06:39.560 would that mean for China. 0:06:40.120 --> 0:06:42.880 China can just buy from somebody else. China has the 0:06:42.960 --> 0:06:46.599 money and the capability financial ability to pay. Please remember 0:06:46.680 --> 0:06:49.480 in China, it Anian oil is not used by any 0:06:49.520 --> 0:06:52.520 of the major Chinese companies, so sign a pick cut 0:06:52.760 --> 0:06:56.200 China or Asino. They don't touch it any imprude. Only 0:06:56.279 --> 0:06:59.920 the teapots use it. So if the teapots cannot get 0:07:00.240 --> 0:07:02.840 you know, most of these teapots or uneconomic, and the 0:07:02.920 --> 0:07:05.480 Chinese government wants to close them anyway is a matter 0:07:05.520 --> 0:07:09.000 of time, so they don't have it, they may close earlier, 0:07:09.080 --> 0:07:12.840 and it's better for the economy of China because Chinese 0:07:13.480 --> 0:07:17.160 oil companies have so much spare capacity, they don't really 0:07:17.200 --> 0:07:20.040 need them. And the Iranian crew doesn't go into the 0:07:20.080 --> 0:07:23.400 big defineries in China because the big defineries around the 0:07:23.440 --> 0:07:25.840 stock market, and if you're in the stock market, you 0:07:25.920 --> 0:07:29.680 don't want to go. At least the US sanctions. 0:07:29.640 --> 0:07:32.840 We've seen volatility in the energy markets, which was to 0:07:32.880 --> 0:07:37.559 be expected, but it's been measured. What's something that could 0:07:37.640 --> 0:07:41.200 happen that would send oil north of one hundred dollars 0:07:41.240 --> 0:07:43.520 a barrow, which seems to be kind of the line 0:07:43.560 --> 0:07:45.160 that everybody is watching for. 0:07:45.960 --> 0:07:49.200 I think two events can make that happen. 0:07:49.920 --> 0:07:52.960 One is that if there is an attack on the 0:07:53.000 --> 0:07:56.640 oil fields run for example, in Ua, the attack to 0:07:56.680 --> 0:07:59.520 buy which is a commercial hub, so they hit the hotels, 0:07:59.560 --> 0:08:04.400 they hit residential areas, but they haven't hit the oil 0:08:04.440 --> 0:08:07.640 fields of Abudabi, which is so close to them that 0:08:07.680 --> 0:08:10.120 they could destroy a lot of them overnight. 0:08:11.440 --> 0:08:16.120 They have hit a Saudi refinery, but they haven't hit 0:08:16.160 --> 0:08:17.000 the oil fields. 0:08:17.640 --> 0:08:21.000 Still, if you hit the oil fields that you interfere 0:08:21.040 --> 0:08:23.360 with the flow of oil, then the prices can jump 0:08:23.440 --> 0:08:24.240 very fast. 0:08:24.480 --> 0:08:27.760 If you close access to the straits of Hormos for 0:08:27.840 --> 0:08:31.160 more than a month, the prices can jump hundred dollars 0:08:31.240 --> 0:08:31.520 or more. 0:08:32.480 --> 0:08:36.319 Now, the APAC region where we are now is deeply 0:08:36.360 --> 0:08:40.439 dependent on Middle Eastern oil. China, for example, buys eighty 0:08:40.720 --> 0:08:45.319 percent ninety percent of Iranian crude, Japan imports nearly all 0:08:45.360 --> 0:08:48.319 of its oil from the Middle East, and India gets 0:08:48.400 --> 0:08:52.240 roughly half of its oil from the region. Singapore has 0:08:52.280 --> 0:08:56.800 said it may reassess its GDP depending on how long 0:08:56.920 --> 0:08:59.840 this conflict lasts. And I wonder when you look at 0:08:59.880 --> 0:09:04.840 the region broadly, where do you see the biggest vulnerabilities. 0:09:05.760 --> 0:09:08.960 Everything is dependent on the price. If the price of 0:09:09.040 --> 0:09:12.760 oil is nineteen hundred dollars, then GDP they go down. 0:09:13.320 --> 0:09:16.160 But at the price of seventy seven, seventy eight dollars, 0:09:16.400 --> 0:09:19.679 no impact on GDP. Even at eighty dollars. I mean, 0:09:19.720 --> 0:09:22.600 we've had eighty dollars oil a long time and it 0:09:22.640 --> 0:09:25.959 was totally absorbed. Even in India, eighty dollars oil is 0:09:26.000 --> 0:09:30.239 easily absorbable. In China, eighteen ninety dollars is easily absorbable. 0:09:30.679 --> 0:09:33.720 The issue is that if there is a lack of 0:09:33.760 --> 0:09:37.680 supply so that the economy cannot be run and the 0:09:37.720 --> 0:09:40.560 prices go to the roof, Yes, it has an impact, 0:09:40.960 --> 0:09:43.400 but I think people are jumping the gun out of 0:09:43.880 --> 0:09:44.880 abundance of caution. 0:09:45.480 --> 0:09:49.640 Now, India is hugely reliant on Middle Eastern crude. At 0:09:49.679 --> 0:09:54.319 what oil price does this war become a real problem 0:09:54.440 --> 0:09:55.080 for India. 0:09:55.640 --> 0:09:59.400 Well, India has done a study several years ago that 0:09:59.559 --> 0:10:02.880 eighty do barrel oil is okay with them. They can manage. 0:10:03.240 --> 0:10:05.480 If that was three years ago, I think today eighty 0:10:05.480 --> 0:10:09.360 five dollars ninety dollars would be tolerable. So India has 0:10:09.400 --> 0:10:12.960 a good ability to pay. There is a huge amount 0:10:13.000 --> 0:10:18.400 of strategic petroleum reserves in the world in the AACD countries, 0:10:19.080 --> 0:10:22.880 in the United States, China has a huge amount of 0:10:23.040 --> 0:10:28.160 strategic reserves. Japanese have two hundred and seventy days of 0:10:28.200 --> 0:10:31.320 the strategic reserve, so they can go for a whole 0:10:31.440 --> 0:10:35.640 year without any imports. So nobody else in the world 0:10:35.679 --> 0:10:40.599 has that level of cover. And the Saudis and Ua 0:10:40.920 --> 0:10:46.199 have huge reserves of oil inside of Japan that they 0:10:46.240 --> 0:10:49.559 are obligated to sell to Japan first if there is 0:10:49.600 --> 0:10:54.400 a global crisis. The Koreas have far less reserves, but 0:10:56.040 --> 0:10:59.760 they can manage. These reserves have not been opened yet. 0:11:00.120 --> 0:11:03.160 And then the first indication for you to find out 0:11:03.440 --> 0:11:06.800 if this is serious, is that if this TT reserves 0:11:06.840 --> 0:11:08.000 are ordered to be opened. 0:11:11.800 --> 0:11:14.560 So what scenario does Beijing hope to see out of 0:11:14.600 --> 0:11:18.280 this war? And could the US's actions be driving American 0:11:18.440 --> 0:11:22.520 allies in Asia closer to present chijin Ping. That's coming 0:11:22.600 --> 0:11:38.320 up after the break. Later this month, Trump is set 0:11:38.320 --> 0:11:40.920 to sit down with Chinese present chijin Ping at a 0:11:40.960 --> 0:11:44.679 major summit, and their teams are already laying the groundwork. 0:11:45.000 --> 0:11:48.800 US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant and Chinese Vice Premier Halufhun 0:11:49.200 --> 0:11:51.640 are expected to gather in Paris in a few weeks 0:11:51.679 --> 0:11:56.000 to hash out possible deals. And despite recent US strikes 0:11:56.000 --> 0:11:59.920 in Iran, Bloomberg's Daniel ten Kate says Washington and Beijing 0:12:00.320 --> 0:12:03.439 have plenty of reasons to keep the conversation going. 0:12:04.760 --> 0:12:07.640 If you look at the economics of it. Yes, China 0:12:07.720 --> 0:12:11.760 eyes a lot of Iran's oil. It's definitely more important 0:12:11.800 --> 0:12:15.280 to Iran than China, and China is pretty diversified in 0:12:15.360 --> 0:12:19.120 its energy mix. But if they lose the entire Gulf, 0:12:19.600 --> 0:12:22.439 that's a much bigger problem for China. I think the 0:12:22.480 --> 0:12:26.160 optics depend a lot on what happens in the next month. 0:12:26.720 --> 0:12:29.199 I mean, Trump has taken out two leaders in two 0:12:29.320 --> 0:12:33.240 months of countries that were friendly with China, and so 0:12:34.160 --> 0:12:37.160 oil could be hurt. You could be seeing more disruption 0:12:37.320 --> 0:12:41.400 the global economy. We're seeing Iran still targeting a lot 0:12:41.440 --> 0:12:46.240 of economic infrastructure in the region, targeting US embassies, targeting 0:12:46.480 --> 0:12:51.360 oil and gas infrastructure, blocking ships in the Strait of Hormuz. 0:12:52.080 --> 0:12:57.360 Trump threatening harder hits against the Iranian regime. So where 0:12:57.400 --> 0:12:59.360 are we in a month. I don't know. I mean, 0:12:59.480 --> 0:13:02.280 I think that's kind of a big question for China 0:13:02.280 --> 0:13:04.560 as well. Would they like to separate the two issues 0:13:04.559 --> 0:13:06.880 and make it go forward, Yes, I think they would, 0:13:07.160 --> 0:13:10.760 But optically, do you want to act really chummy with Trump? 0:13:10.800 --> 0:13:13.400 So I think that's the calculation there. How much do 0:13:13.440 --> 0:13:15.920 they try and signal to the rest of the world 0:13:16.240 --> 0:13:20.280 and to their own population and everything else about what 0:13:20.360 --> 0:13:22.840 they think this means for them. 0:13:23.000 --> 0:13:26.120 How does the US's latest actions We've got this in 0:13:26.200 --> 0:13:30.040 Venezuela earlier this year, affect its relationship with its allies 0:13:30.080 --> 0:13:33.120 in the region. Do you think it helps position China 0:13:33.200 --> 0:13:34.800 as the more reliable partner? 0:13:35.480 --> 0:13:38.559 So you could see a lot of traditional US allies 0:13:39.080 --> 0:13:41.720 at the very least, they're nervous about what's going on, 0:13:41.800 --> 0:13:44.079 and they're uneasy about it, and we see that publicly. 0:13:44.760 --> 0:13:47.679 What they can do about it is another question. You know, 0:13:47.840 --> 0:13:50.560 there's not you still need the US market. The US 0:13:50.640 --> 0:13:54.320 is still the predominant military power, so from the White 0:13:54.320 --> 0:13:57.440 House's point of view, it's probably like, well, who cares, 0:13:57.480 --> 0:13:59.840 what are they going to do anyway? But over the 0:14:00.080 --> 0:14:05.400 long term that does erode American soft power. It's making 0:14:05.480 --> 0:14:10.000 countries look around beyond the US to different partners, and 0:14:10.120 --> 0:14:13.360 China is one of them, and it does kind of 0:14:13.440 --> 0:14:16.840 raise questions like, when you do need those partners the 0:14:16.880 --> 0:14:19.200 next time, when you're under the gun in some way, 0:14:19.720 --> 0:14:21.160 are they going to be there for you in the 0:14:21.160 --> 0:14:24.160 way that you want them to be? And that remains 0:14:24.200 --> 0:14:25.000 an open question. 0:14:25.760 --> 0:14:30.080 What about politically? Where else in this region does Iran 0:14:30.160 --> 0:14:31.120 have close ties? 0:14:31.480 --> 0:14:36.080 Iran maintains fairly good ties with the region, and Asia 0:14:36.320 --> 0:14:41.800 generally likes to maintain good ties with Iran. So India, 0:14:41.840 --> 0:14:45.080 for instance, had quite good ties, and they've invested a 0:14:45.120 --> 0:14:47.520 lot in a port called Chabahar, which was meant to 0:14:47.560 --> 0:14:51.920 provide an alternative route for Afghanistan to send goods out 0:14:52.000 --> 0:14:54.320 so it didn't have to go through Pakistan. For instance, 0:14:54.760 --> 0:14:58.080 a lot of countries here would love to buy Iranian 0:14:58.120 --> 0:15:00.880 oil and probably invest in Iran as well well, but 0:15:01.480 --> 0:15:04.400 they also don't want to fall a foul of US sanctions. 0:15:04.480 --> 0:15:07.920 So if you rely on dollar trade and want access 0:15:07.920 --> 0:15:11.680 to dollars, then you have to play ball, and so 0:15:12.000 --> 0:15:15.720 most Asian economies are doing that. They have no inherent 0:15:15.840 --> 0:15:19.000 dislike of Iran. I'm sure they don't like Iran pursuing 0:15:19.680 --> 0:15:22.680 a nuclear weapon, but they also probably would not support 0:15:23.120 --> 0:15:26.040 regime change, and many have expressed concern about what has 0:15:26.040 --> 0:15:30.360 happened and whether it's compliant with international law. Japan is 0:15:30.400 --> 0:15:34.640 an interesting case too, because they've traditionally tried to position 0:15:34.760 --> 0:15:37.960 themselves as a kind of a go between between the 0:15:38.160 --> 0:15:43.600 US and Iran. We've seen the Iranian ambassador, for instance, 0:15:43.840 --> 0:15:47.880 hold a press briefing in Tokyo. They've also done that 0:15:47.920 --> 0:15:52.080 in Indonesia, where Proboo, the leader there, has offered himself 0:15:52.120 --> 0:15:54.680 as a mediator, and of course he's close to Trump 0:15:55.200 --> 0:15:58.600 and joined his Board of Peace and considering sending troops 0:15:58.600 --> 0:16:02.600 to Gaza. So basically everyone in Asia wants to get 0:16:02.600 --> 0:16:05.440 along with both countries. They want to keep the oil 0:16:05.480 --> 0:16:07.480 flowing and they want to end this thing as quickly 0:16:07.480 --> 0:16:08.120 as possible. 0:16:09.480 --> 0:16:11.960 And I think what's also interesting is that the Middle 0:16:11.960 --> 0:16:15.360 Eastern hubs are actually quite important to Asia in a 0:16:15.400 --> 0:16:18.680 way that you wouldn't necessarily think at first. But Middle 0:16:18.680 --> 0:16:21.200 Eastern hubs, you know, do link Asia to Europe, to 0:16:21.280 --> 0:16:24.320 Africa and the US. I mean, certainly when you look 0:16:24.320 --> 0:16:28.200 at flights, thousands of flights were canceled after UAE airports 0:16:28.240 --> 0:16:33.720 closed for security reasons. How damaging is this to Asia's 0:16:33.840 --> 0:16:35.640 connectivity and to commerce. 0:16:36.760 --> 0:16:39.960 Certainly if it's prolonged, it's going to change the equation 0:16:40.120 --> 0:16:43.080 for how people get around here. I'm sure everyone knows 0:16:43.120 --> 0:16:46.240 people who are stuck in hotels in Dubai right now. 0:16:46.280 --> 0:16:50.480 And that's one example of how connected and how important 0:16:50.520 --> 0:16:52.520 the Middle East is as a hub, as a transit 0:16:52.600 --> 0:16:56.360 hub in particular. There's all sorts of questions on logistics 0:16:56.400 --> 0:16:58.800 right now that are just being worked out. I think 0:16:58.800 --> 0:17:01.200 we're in the emerging and see stage right now, where 0:17:01.240 --> 0:17:03.920 people can sort of deal with it for a week 0:17:04.040 --> 0:17:06.439 or two and get on with life if it ends quickly. 0:17:06.920 --> 0:17:10.680 But if you're looking at prolonged disruptions to flights, to shipping, 0:17:11.119 --> 0:17:15.120 to oil supply, then your supply chains are gonna need 0:17:15.160 --> 0:17:19.280 to be reworked, and anytime you do that, it's more expensive, 0:17:19.800 --> 0:17:21.800 so that means people are going to be paying more 0:17:22.240 --> 0:17:24.520 for a lot of various goods and travel. 0:17:29.480 --> 0:17:33.200 This is The Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm wanha. 0:17:33.359 --> 0:17:36.000 To get more from The Big Take and unlimited access 0:17:36.040 --> 0:17:38.920 to all of Bloomberg dot Com, subscribe today at Bloomberg 0:17:38.960 --> 0:17:42.400 dot com slash podcast Offer. If you like the episode, 0:17:42.520 --> 0:17:44.960 make sure to subscribe and review The Big Take Asia 0:17:45.080 --> 0:17:48.080 wherever you listen to podcasts. It helps people find the show. 0:17:48.440 --> 0:17:49.920 Thanks for listening. To see you next time.