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Speaker 2: Heley Lions in Washington, where it has been an exhausting
Speaker 2: couple of days as lawmakers have been racing to beat
Speaker 2: the clock, which runs out just about eleven hours from now.
Speaker 2: They have until midnight tonight to avert a government shutdown,
Speaker 2: or at the very least a technical one as we
Speaker 2: are heading into a weekend. And of course there's a
Speaker 2: lot of voices at play. There's what House Leadership wants,
Speaker 2: led of course by the Speaker Mike Johnson. Then there's
Speaker 2: what Donald Trump, the President elect, and Elon Musk, who's
Speaker 2: coming in to help lead the Department of Government Efficiency,
Speaker 2: want to see, including apparently a lifting of the debt stealing,
Speaker 2: but it's unclear whether or not that can get through
Speaker 2: on this day of days. In fact, what we understand
Speaker 2: House Leadership is talking about is breaking up a package
Speaker 2: that failed on the House floor last night with thirty
Speaker 2: eight Republicans voting against it into multiple parts, perhaps easier
Speaker 2: to digest for lawmakers who were reluctant to vote for
Speaker 2: the whole thing. But a Republican conference meeting is underway
Speaker 2: as we speak, so we want to get more details
Speaker 2: on what exactly we know, intern to Bloomberg Politics editor
Speaker 2: Laura Davison. So, Laura, obviously this has been a fast
Speaker 2: moving story. It's literally changing as we speak at this hour.
Speaker 2: Where do we stand?
Speaker 3: So House Republicans are literally in a room right now.
Speaker 3: Mike Johnson, the Speaker, is going through the options of
Speaker 3: what they can do, and what that looks like is
Speaker 3: having separate votes on sort of the key elements of
Speaker 3: the bill. So one just a straight bill to extend
Speaker 3: current levels of government funding through March. One hundred billion
Speaker 3: dollars for disaster aid. That's exceptionally important for people in
Speaker 3: North Carolina, Georgia, Florida who have said that they are
Speaker 3: not going to vote for this bill unless that is
Speaker 3: part of the mix, as well as a farm Aid
Speaker 3: also important for a lot of different states. The question
Speaker 3: is will there be a vote on this debt ceiling piece.
Speaker 3: This is really where Republicans in Congress and Donald Trump
Speaker 3: are really at odds, and we saw that play out
Speaker 3: last night when that bill really failed spectacularly on the floor.
Speaker 3: Republicans in Congress don't want to deal with this right now.
Speaker 3: It is clear there is not the votes to do
Speaker 3: what Trump wants to do. He originally said he thought
Speaker 3: a two year suspension the debt sealing was good. Then
Speaker 3: he came back at one o'clock in the morning said
Speaker 3: how about four years? And it's not really how the
Speaker 3: negotiation works, you know, theoretically he should be moving in
Speaker 3: the opposite direction. So this is really going to be
Speaker 3: a test of will for him. Is he going to
Speaker 3: say no, seriously, guys, this is what we're doing, or
Speaker 3: does he back down and avoid what will be a
Speaker 3: very chaotukt at the start of his presidency, a Christmas
Speaker 3: week shutdown, which really doesn't look good for anyone in
Speaker 3: this process.
Speaker 2: Well, it also becomes a question of how Mike Johnson
Speaker 2: is going to navigate this with the President elect. Is
Speaker 2: he willing to defy Trump's wishes when he knows he
Speaker 2: has to abide not just by them, but also what
Speaker 2: Elon Musk wants, also, what the will of his Republican
Speaker 2: conference is knowing he wants to still be gavel in
Speaker 2: hand in the one hundred and nineteenth Congress, he has
Speaker 2: to stand for reelection a speaker in just a few weeks.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and we saw, you know, Trump say, look, Mike
Speaker 3: Johnson can keep his job if he's quote tough. What
Speaker 3: is tough mean? Tough generally means that you're defending whatever
Speaker 3: Trump wants to get done, which is not what Johnson's
Speaker 3: members want to get done. So this is a he's
Speaker 3: in a really tough spot. And this is really where
Speaker 3: we found, you know, most Republican speakers you know, over
Speaker 3: the in the past decade or so, it's these spending
Speaker 3: fights that really test their ability. This kind of fight
Speaker 3: is what ultimately led to Kevin McCarthy's ouster. And so
Speaker 3: this is where you're going to see, you know, Mike Johnson,
Speaker 3: you know, does he you know where where does this
Speaker 3: priority lie. Is it's staying loyal to Trump? Is it
Speaker 3: making sure to keep his members happy and sort of
Speaker 3: providing that top cover for members of Congress who don't
Speaker 3: want this, or is it keeping his job? Probably not
Speaker 3: all of those things are going to be possible. Well,
Speaker 3: especially when you consider that the House is only one
Speaker 3: part of this equation. This has to be a package
Speaker 3: ultimately that can get through the Senate and be signed
Speaker 3: into law by President Biden for a shutdown to be averted.
Speaker 3: Where are the Democrats in this conversation right now? Because
Speaker 3: they're first bipartisan agreement died, they had nothing to do
Speaker 3: with what failed on the House floor last night.
Speaker 2: Are they at the table now?
Speaker 3: So as of just a couple hours ago, there was
Speaker 3: at least conversations between House Republicans and House Democrats. Hackeing
Speaker 3: Jeffrey says that they're at you know, they're at the table,
Speaker 3: they're talking. What that deal ultimately looks like and what
Speaker 3: can come to pass isn't clear. It's not clear that
Speaker 3: that House Republicans even really have their preferred path forward yet.
Speaker 3: Johnson is in the room presenting options to members, not
Speaker 3: a you know, here's what we're going to do, which
Speaker 3: really just signals, you know, it's less than twelve hours
Speaker 3: until a shutdown. The risk of a shutdown just increases
Speaker 3: every little bit. And whether this is a you know,
Speaker 3: short term thing, that's not a huge deal. But if
Speaker 3: this turns into a multi day or multi week situation,
Speaker 3: this is going to be, you know, not bode well
Speaker 3: for Republicans getting things like taxes or immigration or all
Speaker 3: of their big policy priorities done in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2: It's a good reminder though, that even if this does
Speaker 2: laps beyond midnight, it takes them the weekend to figure
Speaker 2: this out. Because it is a weekend, you aren't necessarily
Speaker 2: going to feel any dramatic impacts of a shutdown right away. Correct,
Speaker 2: all right, Bloomberg's Loaura Davison, Bloomberg Politics Editor, keeping busy
Speaker 2: as we keep track of all of the news here
Speaker 2: from Washington. Much appreciated, and we want it to next
Speaker 2: to someone who spent many days in the halls of
Speaker 2: Congress dealing with battles like this one. He is former
Speaker 2: Republican Congressman from Texas and former chair of the House
Speaker 2: Ways and Means Committee. Kevin Brady is joining me now.
Speaker 2: He's now spokesperson for the Alliance for Competitive Taxation. Congressman,
Speaker 2: welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. It's always good
Speaker 2: to have you, sir, And I know that what's going
Speaker 2: on on Capitol Hill probably isn't all too surprising to
Speaker 2: you given history, but I do still wonder what you
Speaker 2: make of the events of the last several days.
Speaker 4: So one, it is great to see you again, Thank
Speaker 4: you so much. Secondly, yes, I have lived these hours
Speaker 4: many times, and I think, you know, one thing that
Speaker 4: sticks out is that I think both President Trump and
Speaker 4: Elon Musk, who have very strong support among Republicans in
Speaker 4: the House, I think our learning what Speaker Johnson's challenges are.
Speaker 4: You know, there are two hundred and twenty plus Republicans.
Speaker 4: They are smart and hard working, they understand the issues,
Speaker 4: and you know, you've got to find a way if
Speaker 4: you're going to unite them, you've got to find the
Speaker 4: right policy to do that. And certainly that's what the
Speaker 4: Speaker is trying to do in that conference meeting as
Speaker 4: we speak. I don't think there may be a technical shutdown.
Speaker 4: I don't foresee any lengthy one at all. They are
Speaker 4: Republicans are working toward keeping this government open one because
Speaker 4: they don't want the distraction heading into President Trump's inauguration.
Speaker 4: They are moving fast because they're determined not to make
Speaker 4: the mistakes of twenty seventeen, where they they feel squandered
Speaker 4: the first six or seven months of that President Trump's
Speaker 4: first term. Now they're moving and secondly, the Republicans have
Speaker 4: learned that if you shut the government down, you just
Speaker 4: abdicate the power of the purse. You give more power
Speaker 4: to the existing president to decide which agencies are open,
Speaker 4: which are not, which workers are essential, which are not.
Speaker 4: And so clearly that's not something Republicans want to do
Speaker 4: at a time not everyone ensure you know how this
Speaker 4: government's running, right.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, I wonder what you make serve specifically the
Speaker 2: request of Donald Trump, that is, raise the debt sealing
Speaker 2: until I'm out of office or just abolish it entitled entirely.
Speaker 2: Does that make sense to you, especially knowing the tax
Speaker 2: reform that Donald Trump would like to pursue shortly after
Speaker 2: he takes office.
Speaker 4: Well, I think Republicans have long believed that the debt ceiling,
Speaker 4: as dramatic and theatrical as sometimes is, which is always helpful,
Speaker 4: that's been where history shows the most progress has been
Speaker 4: made in creating some fiscal responsibility, and so Republicans have
Speaker 4: traditionally believed there should be some type of debt sealing,
Speaker 4: some type of trigger that forces Congress, you know, to
Speaker 4: pretty regularly look at the financial condition of the country
Speaker 4: in the government and try to find a path forwards.
Speaker 4: So that was going to be a very, very tough
Speaker 4: lift in the best of circumstances. But there are many
Speaker 4: Republicans House and Senate who've never voted for a debt
Speaker 4: ceiling bill. If they have, it's been with significant spending cuts.
Speaker 4: That wasn't part of that proposal at all last night.
Speaker 4: And so I think this is a chance again for
Speaker 4: the President in Elon Musk on the saving side of this,
Speaker 4: to really sit down internally work with the incoming class Republicans,
Speaker 4: because I think the field in twenty twenty five where
Speaker 4: they hold the House and Senate is so much better
Speaker 4: field to find on than the one they have right
Speaker 4: now where Democrats run the Senate in the White House.
Speaker 2: All right, Former Congressman Kevin Brady, I do want to
Speaker 2: get to what this future Congress is going to look
Speaker 2: like with you. If you wouldn't mind sitting tight for
Speaker 2: just a few minutes, we would greatly appreciate your patients,
Speaker 2: because we do want to go live to Capitol Hill
Speaker 2: joining us from his office right now, as Democratic Senator
Speaker 2: Mark Warner of Virginia, Sir, thank you so much for
Speaker 2: your time on what is obviously a very busy week
Speaker 2: in Washington as it stands now, with the reporting we
Speaker 2: have out of the House about their proposed path forward
Speaker 2: splitting a bill up essentially into a number of different
Speaker 2: ones to be voted on, can this shut down be avoided?
Speaker 2: Can your cheap vote on this before midnight tonight?
Speaker 5: Well, but first of all, we have seen I say,
Speaker 5: this is somebody that was in business longer than been
Speaker 5: in politics. This was incompetence at a spectacular level. You know,
Speaker 5: I'm looking forward to working with Donald Trump where I can,
Speaker 5: But he prides himself on art of the deal. There
Speaker 5: was a yeah, days and days, and I believe my
Speaker 5: senate Republican friends who are all ready for the deal.
Speaker 5: I think his team was told. But then to pull
Speaker 5: the rug out from under the feet of the speaker.
Speaker 5: I mean, is this a preview of what's going to
Speaker 5: happen over the next four years? And you know, and
Speaker 5: with all due respect to your your former guest, when
Speaker 5: I was coming back on you know, the debt ceiling
Speaker 5: is we've already wrung up those bills and it's basically saying,
Speaker 5: are you going to pay your credit card bill on
Speaker 5: things you've already expended? So I am concerned. I'm concerned
Speaker 5: about if we go through this shut down, the signal
Speaker 5: it sends to our adversaries around the world. I'm concerned
Speaker 5: about if you know a lot of Bloomberg viewers, I'm
Speaker 5: sure going to climb on an airplane in the next
Speaker 5: few days to go visit family. You know, you got
Speaker 5: a shutdown with TSA and air traffic controllers not getting paid.
Speaker 5: This is crazy and you know, chopping it up into
Speaker 5: three bits and it again, as we all know, the
Speaker 5: idea that some of these extreme members on the House
Speaker 5: Republican side are never going to vote for anything, whether
Speaker 5: it's debt seeing or continued resolution. You know why they
Speaker 5: are dictating some of the terms. As a business guy,
Speaker 5: kind of goes makes me scratch our head.
Speaker 6: You know.
Speaker 5: Last point just is like, you know, the Senate Republicans,
Speaker 5: the Senate Democrats, the House Democrats, we were all on
Speaker 5: the same page. This was a bipartisan agreement and it
Speaker 5: doesn't go poorly for what's coming next.
Speaker 2: Well, of course that bypart is agreement is no longer
Speaker 2: on the table. So what messaging have you gotten from
Speaker 2: your leadership from Chuck Schumer as to what the Democrats
Speaker 2: in the Senate will be willing to vote for here,
Speaker 2: what is the very lowest bar that you're willing to
Speaker 2: jump over to a vote a chef.
Speaker 5: If anybody can predict what the House Republicans can pass,
Speaker 5: particular if they're going to just try to pass it
Speaker 5: with their own members, they can't. I mean the reality is,
Speaker 5: as people know, there are a whole group of members
Speaker 5: that will never vote for a continuing resolution. So the
Speaker 5: notion that you can do this without working with the
Speaker 5: Democrats is the math doesn't add up. So I remember
Speaker 5: the pottery barn expression, if you break it, you own it. Well,
Speaker 5: these guys broke it. So let's see what will come
Speaker 5: out of this afternoon. But to put our put the
Speaker 5: in jeopardy all of these families right in the holidays.
Speaker 5: You depend upon these paychecks or the businesses that are
Speaker 5: adjacent around tourism that will never get recouped. It is
Speaker 5: just playing cruel, sir.
Speaker 2: I'd like to ask you as well, how you see
Speaker 2: this being foreboding or what you think this might signals
Speaker 2: to the battle's still ahead, specifically in twenty twenty five,
Speaker 2: when there will be expirations of tax cuts that have
Speaker 2: actually led to more money in the pockets of some
Speaker 2: of these very same people you are referring to who
Speaker 2: could be hurt by a shutdown. Given how difficult this
Speaker 2: funding battle has proven to be, does that suggest to
Speaker 2: you that Democrats will have to step in to extend
Speaker 2: those twenty seventeen tax cuts. It's your votes that will
Speaker 2: ultimately be required for that to happen.
Speaker 5: That's what I like this. There is over the last year,
Speaker 5: I'm not sure there was a single bill that came
Speaker 5: out of the House that didn't have to have Democrats help.
Speaker 5: And listen, I'm I'm part of every bipartisan gang that's
Speaker 5: taken place anything that's happened out of the last couple
Speaker 5: of years in terms of infrastructure or the Chips Bill,
Speaker 5: Orctoral or not at they're a bipartisan group of us
Speaker 5: that put that together. I think, frankly that ends up
Speaker 5: with better legislation and both parties have to own the
Speaker 5: good and the bad. And I think again, with the
Speaker 5: margin what one or two at the first couple of
Speaker 5: months in the House, and some people who will find
Speaker 5: an excuse to vote against anything, I think if they
Speaker 5: try to do this in a bipartisan way, you know,
Speaker 5: I want America to be stay competitive. I want us
Speaker 5: to have the best business climate in the world. But
Speaker 5: the signal that sends if we go into this shutdown,
Speaker 5: it's it's you know, I thought, we've all seen this
Speaker 5: movie many times before, and there may be that final
Speaker 5: chapter where you know there's a way out. But this
Speaker 5: is not a way to govern the greatest country, the
Speaker 5: most powerful country in the world. And it does make
Speaker 5: me worried about next year. And again I say this
Speaker 5: with somebody who I disagree with President Elect Trump on
Speaker 5: a number of things, but I'm more than have to
Speaker 5: work with. And I probably voted for more of his
Speaker 5: cabinet nominees last time, and I will vote for many
Speaker 5: of them this time. So I'm not here to kind
Speaker 5: of just throw stones at the other side. But gosh,
Speaker 5: you know, how do you negotiate in good faith with
Speaker 5: somebody going forward, particularly when I believe that at least
Speaker 5: the Trump team was aware of what the speaker was doing.
Speaker 5: If after a handshake, somebody who a Niggs at the eleventh.
Speaker 2: Hour, Well, sir, finally, is it really only Donald Trump
Speaker 2: that will have to be worked with, negotiated with? Or
Speaker 2: do we have to have Elon Musk's name on this
Speaker 2: list as well as to who's sign off is going
Speaker 2: to be required to get any real legislating done.
Speaker 5: I have huge respect for Elon musk business acumen, but
Speaker 5: the idea that he is now you know, outside of
Speaker 5: his lanes. And I've worked with Elon Musk and I want
Speaker 5: to work with him going forward. I think there's a
Speaker 5: lot of efficiency that we can bring to the government.
Speaker 5: But the idea that he's suddenly calling the plays for
Speaker 5: how the government is going to he funded or not,
Speaker 5: He'd be like putting me in as a as the
Speaker 5: coach for the you know, Washington commanders. The team would
Speaker 5: lose and a lot of people would get hurt. So
Speaker 5: I think we all need to acknowledge you we all
Speaker 5: bring different skill sets to the table and inefficiency.
Speaker 6: You know.
Speaker 5: Again, I was a big supporter of Elon Musk a
Speaker 5: decade ago as was getting SpaceX up and operating breaking
Speaker 5: up in the monopolies that controlled that arena. But I
Speaker 5: do hope that you know, he understands the power he has.
Speaker 5: He's got more followers on Twitter than Donald Trump and
Speaker 5: candidly and don't take my work talk to any Republican.
Speaker 5: What he was tweeting on you know, whatever day was
Speaker 5: when the deal came out. Half of the tweets were
Speaker 5: just factually not true.
Speaker 2: All right, Senator, thank you very much for hopping on
Speaker 2: to join us here on Bloomberg TV and radio. That
Speaker 2: was Democratic Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, Your time is
Speaker 2: much appreciated, sir.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
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Speaker 2: The former Congressman Kevin Brady who has been standing by
Speaker 2: for us. He of course used to represent Texas and
Speaker 2: was chair of the House Ways and Means Committee. Now
Speaker 2: he's spokesman for the Alliance for Competitive Taxation. Congressman, thank
Speaker 2: you very much for sticking with us here. I'm sure
Speaker 2: you heard the words of Senator Warner. They're just talking about, frankly,
Speaker 2: the fact that it has required Democrats to get a
Speaker 2: lot of legislating done in this one hundred and eighteenth
Speaker 2: Congress and the one hundred nineteenth when the House majority
Speaker 2: is daven narrower. That may be true. So how much
Speaker 2: are you catering your messaging as well? At the Alliance
Speaker 2: for Competitive Taxation two Democrats who may be required to
Speaker 2: get any kind of tax package over the finish line
Speaker 2: next year.
Speaker 4: Yes, well, well, our messaging more important. Sort of the
Speaker 4: solutions we're advancing to keep America competitive, to make sure
Speaker 4: our companies can compete when and where around the world,
Speaker 4: economic growth with a low corporate tax rate, in continuing
Speaker 4: to incentivize innovation in the US, those are really bipartisan
Speaker 4: messages and bipartisan provisions I think within the tax code
Speaker 4: as Congress looks at it next year, in addition to
Speaker 4: keeping this growth and being able to counter China's super
Speaker 4: aggressiveness around the world. Certainly the middle class tax cuts
Speaker 4: the Republicans put in place, the new small business tax
Speaker 4: deduction so important to main street main Street, the child
Speaker 4: tax credits in some of those business provisions like research
Speaker 4: and development they've already voted on in a biparson way.
Speaker 4: There is plenty of common ground for Congress if Democrats
Speaker 4: are willing to work with President Trump. They haven't on
Speaker 4: tax matters in the past. We'll see if they will
Speaker 4: or if it's needed. I think again, a lesson from
Speaker 4: this early effort right now on passing a continuing resolution
Speaker 4: is that in a super thin majority, the President and Republicans,
Speaker 4: whichever parties in Franklin power, has to work very carefully,
Speaker 4: very deliberately to make sure they've got those policies right
Speaker 4: and can advance them well.
Speaker 2: And it's also a matter of sequencing here, sir, the
Speaker 2: man who now has the gavel that you once held
Speaker 2: in ways and means, Jason Smith has been pretty adamant
Speaker 2: that he thinks of tax reform is going to pass,
Speaker 2: it needs to be included in one big budget reconciliation package,
Speaker 2: inclusive of other measures around the border, immigration, and energy
Speaker 2: as well. That that's really the only way that this
Speaker 2: thing is going to get through the House. I wonder
Speaker 2: your thought on that, knowing that Donald Trump and the
Speaker 2: Senate incoming Senate majority Leader John Thune seemed to still
Speaker 2: be advocating for trying to do two hard things at
Speaker 2: two separate times.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so I think one. I think President Trump at
Speaker 4: some points can waiy in to sort of break the
Speaker 4: tie on the sequence. He certainly from holding that gave
Speaker 4: al ways and means Committee, as you're doing the tax bill,
Speaker 4: you want all the factors that could be a leverage
Speaker 4: in bringing people to the table together. You want them
Speaker 4: in that single bill. So certainly Chairman Smith's proposal is
Speaker 4: a rational one. But regardless of whether it's one or
Speaker 4: it's two, I think one thing everyone needs to understand
Speaker 4: is it's a little like Mike Tyson's comments about heading
Speaker 4: into a fight. You know, everyone's got a plan until
Speaker 4: you get punched in the mouth. Well, reconciliation is difficult
Speaker 4: in it's complex, and you can have the best plan
Speaker 4: in the world on paper, but until you sit down
Speaker 4: with your members of Congress on your committee and your
Speaker 4: conference in the House and the Senate together, you know,
Speaker 4: you don't really know where that sequencing is going to lead.
Speaker 4: And so I think, you know, it's good to have
Speaker 4: the conversations they're having right now about which strategically would
Speaker 4: work best. But at the end of the day, as
Speaker 4: they begin to meet with the these new members coming
Speaker 4: in as well as existing comments, I think they'll get it.
Speaker 4: They will find a path. It'll become clear as they
Speaker 4: have those conversations.
Speaker 2: Well, and as we have the conversation about kind of
Speaker 2: the government ledger here, if you will, with the spending
Speaker 2: on the one side, the revenue on the other side,
Speaker 2: with this tax conversation. We've had this conversation many times before,
Speaker 2: Congressman about the notion that Donald Trump does think some
Speaker 2: of that revenue can be supplemented by revenue coming from tariffs.
Speaker 2: And I know you aren't all four that idea, but
Speaker 2: he did introduce a new tariff idea into the discussion.
Speaker 2: Early this morning, he posted on true Social that he
Speaker 2: told the European Union that to help make up for
Speaker 2: the deficit, the trade deficit with the United States, they
Speaker 2: have to purchase large scale purchases of our oil and gas. Otherwise,
Speaker 2: he says, it is tariffs all the way. And so,
Speaker 2: while I know you aren't a big fan of using
Speaker 2: that kind of income to increase revenue, are you a
Speaker 2: fan of it as for using it as leverage in
Speaker 2: a negotiation? Is that ultimately what you think this is?
Speaker 4: Well, I'm hoped so in the sense that I think
Speaker 4: it is clear the present president home is very clear
Speaker 4: he believes tariffs worked our advantage in moving people to
Speaker 4: the table to have these conversations, and in his priorities
Speaker 4: obviously border security, stopping drugs and fannyl, stopping unfair trade
Speaker 4: packed UH practices, rebalancing trade, and getting the world to
Speaker 4: buy more US oil, buy more US products, help US
Speaker 4: stop Chinese transshipments, put pressure on Iran. I think he
Speaker 4: has a whole host I think of priorities, and he
Speaker 4: sees tariffs, or at least the threat and leverage of them,
Speaker 4: as a way to bring countries to the table. And
Speaker 4: I think we're all hopeful because tariffs can be so damaging,
Speaker 4: usually more to the host country like America than it
Speaker 4: is to the other countries you're applying it to. And
Speaker 4: so yeah, I think people are hopeful that that that
Speaker 4: these conversations and this approach works to bring countries to
Speaker 4: the table and we can find.
Speaker 2: Some all right, Sorry, I know we've gone overtime with you.
Speaker 2: So I just have one more question for you. As
Speaker 2: a former member, a former leader within the House of Representatives,
Speaker 2: if you had a piece of advice for Speaker Mike
Speaker 2: Johnson now and as he heads into another speaker election
Speaker 2: just weeks from now, what would it be.
Speaker 4: Well, I'll say, as a conservative, I will tell you
Speaker 4: I'm I'm a big admirer of Speaker Johnson. Again, I
Speaker 4: think he's taken the right approach. He listens very carefully,
Speaker 4: certainly his word is good, and he's again one of
Speaker 4: the most conservative speakers the ouse has ever had, who
Speaker 4: respects the views of the entire conference. He knows how
Speaker 4: then this margin will be not just today but in
Speaker 4: the future. I will just tell I don't know that
Speaker 4: I have advice except to continue to be you because
Speaker 4: the principal's integrity you bring, that office, that leadership, I
Speaker 4: think is what we exactly what we need right now.
Speaker 2: All right, Congressman Kevin Brady of Texas now spokesman for
Speaker 2: the Alliance for Competitive Taxation, thank you for being generous
Speaker 2: with your time today. Serve very hoppy holidays to you
Speaker 2: and years, and we'll look forward to touching base with
Speaker 2: you again in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
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Speaker 2: As Republican lawmakers search for a planned se which they
Speaker 2: are hoping could be successful in averting a government shutdown
Speaker 2: when the clock strikes midnight tonight. What this plan see
Speaker 2: will include kind of looks like what Plan B was,
Speaker 2: though Plan B failed in spectacular fashion on the House
Speaker 2: floor yesterday because it was a bill that put a
Speaker 2: lot of these things together. Didn't go so well because
Speaker 2: it included a two year extension of the debt limit. Instead,
Speaker 2: they want to split it up. Our understanding, at least
Speaker 2: at this hour things could always change, as we've learned
Speaker 2: over the course of the last few days, is to
Speaker 2: dippy things up into three packages. One being a continuing resolution,
Speaker 2: a stopgap measure that will keep the government funded until
Speaker 2: mid March. That's what needs to happen to avert a
Speaker 2: shutdown this weekend. Second part aid for natural disasters, a
Speaker 2: lot of that targeted at the American Southeast, which is
Speaker 2: still recovering from multiple hurricanes that we're devastating this year. Again,
Speaker 2: pretty popular measure. Then there's a one year extension of
Speaker 2: the Farm Bill, so aid for farmers and the agricultural sector.
Speaker 2: The question is going to be, if it is indeed
Speaker 2: going to be three bills, how quickly could they come
Speaker 2: to the floor and under a rule or under suspension
Speaker 2: of it, because that's what will dictate how many members
Speaker 2: need to vote for it for it to pass and
Speaker 2: get set sent to the Senate. So here with me
Speaker 2: now is our political panel today. Brittany Martinez is a
Speaker 2: Republican strategist and founder of a Spina and Company. She's
Speaker 2: also a veteran of the House of Representatives, alongside Genie
Speaker 2: shanzeno democratic strategist and senior Democracy Fellow for the Center
Speaker 2: of the Study of the Presidency and Congress. So, Brittany,
Speaker 2: we have an understanding of plan set at least at
Speaker 2: this hour. What we don't yet know is how exactly
Speaker 2: lawmakers are receiving it inside the conference room at this time.
Speaker 2: But a lot of lawmakers obviously have expressed upset with
Speaker 2: how Mike Johnson has handled it thus far. Can he
Speaker 2: put Humpty Dumpty, which is the Republican conference back together
Speaker 2: again with this plan?
Speaker 7: I mean he's going to have to or otherwise the
Speaker 7: government's going to close in just a few hours. Here.
Speaker 7: I think that you know, the first this is what
Speaker 7: sort of I'm hearing pushback from some folks are saying
Speaker 7: he should have just put up that first bill and
Speaker 7: bucked Trump. The problem with that, though, is that you
Speaker 7: despite the Democrats being supportive of it and not whipping
Speaker 7: against it, it would have frustrated Trump and you know,
Speaker 7: the Republican Party. And though it would have passed and
Speaker 7: we wouldn't be in the situation right now, Trump's bill
Speaker 7: that he wanted yesterday also didn't pass. So though I
Speaker 7: think it's good to have individual bills, that's always republic
Speaker 7: can tell and want to do. In reality, when we're
Speaker 7: getting down to the eleventh hour and I don't think
Speaker 7: we literally have even eleven hours left before the government
Speaker 7: shuts down, that's not the best policy, But at this point,
Speaker 7: what choice do we have. I think that it might
Speaker 7: be successful, but you're probably going to have folks like
Speaker 7: members of the Freedom COUCKUS who still aren't satisfied, and
Speaker 7: I think we will probably hit a government shutdown, even
Speaker 7: if it only lasts for a day or two.
Speaker 2: Well, if you're with us on Bloomberg TV, you see
Speaker 2: we got the shutdown clock up, so it's about ten
Speaker 2: and a half hours left until the deadline right now
Speaker 2: for those listening on Bloomberg Radio. But Genie I was
Speaker 2: just speaking a few moments ago with Democratic Senator Mark
Speaker 2: Warner of Virginian And when I asked him, Hey, what
Speaker 2: are you willing to vote for here to avert a shutdown?
Speaker 2: He basically said, we can't predict what's coming out of
Speaker 2: the House. I just wonder how you take that answer
Speaker 2: or what you're expecting really is the thinking from the
Speaker 2: democratically controlled Senate, which would be the next stop on
Speaker 2: this continuing resolution train.
Speaker 6: Yeah, and it was such an important conversation you had
Speaker 6: with Senator Warner, and in particular, he echoed what we've
Speaker 6: been hearing from Democrats, which was his pottery barn theme.
Speaker 6: You break it, you buy it, and that's what Democrats
Speaker 6: feel that the Republican Party has done. And so they've
Speaker 6: got to own that in terms of this three step process.
Speaker 6: If that does indeed come out, it's going to depend
Speaker 6: on what's in there. You know, Donald Trump tweeting in
Speaker 6: the middle of the night that maybe the debt ceiling
Speaker 6: should be raised for four years as opposed to two
Speaker 6: is going in exactly the opposite direction. If they're planning
Speaker 6: on something like that, Democrats won't go along with it.
Speaker 6: And quite frankly, they can't move forward Republicans because their
Speaker 6: own Republicans won't go along with it. And this speaks
Speaker 6: to a huge problem that the Republicans have. They have
Speaker 6: talked about fiscal responsibility, and yet they are supporting somebody
Speaker 6: who the Committee for Responsible Budget Estimated has put forward
Speaker 6: plans during a campaign to raise the debt by seven
Speaker 6: point seventy five brillion dollars. That was the moderate estimate
Speaker 6: that the committee put forward. How is that physically responsible?
Speaker 6: It is not, and that is what has driven this
Speaker 6: divide in the Republican party. That is why you see
Speaker 6: Republicans very very interesting. Donald Trump's not in office yet,
Speaker 6: yet thirty eight Republicans last night, without fear, stood up
Speaker 6: and voted against him and Elon Musk, and that is
Speaker 6: a precursor of what is to come in this all
Speaker 6: Republican Washington d c.
Speaker 2: Well on the debt and deficits specifically and the debt ceiling,
Speaker 2: which Donald Trump has said he wants to raise or
Speaker 2: abolish before he takes office. Genie, I would point out
Speaker 2: that Democrats have been calling to repeal the debt ceiling
Speaker 2: for a long time. Just last week there was I
Speaker 2: believe seventeen co sponsors on a piece of legislation in
Speaker 2: the Senate that would have gotten rid of the debt ceiling.
Speaker 2: So is it really appropriate to be changing the two
Speaker 2: nour Is this actually an area in which Democrats and
Speaker 2: Donald Trump might be able to work together.
Speaker 6: Well, they may be able to work together, but I'm
Speaker 6: so glad you raised that because the difference is when
Speaker 6: Democrats want to raise or abolish the debt ceiling, which
Speaker 6: is fiscally sound and should happen, it is not for
Speaker 6: the narrow prospects that Donald Trump and Elon Musk put
Speaker 6: forward yesterday, which is so they can ram through an
Speaker 6: extension of the corporate and billionaire's tax cuts. That is
Speaker 6: what is adding to the deficit. That's why they can't
Speaker 6: get the support of people like Chip Roy and so
Speaker 6: that is the problem they have. Yes, we need sound
Speaker 6: fiscal management in this country, and Elon Musk is absolutely
Speaker 6: right when he says we don't have it. The way
Speaker 6: to get it is not to shut down a bipartisan
Speaker 6: agreement hours before it goes through to keep the government open,
Speaker 6: and it is.
Speaker 5: Not to do so.
Speaker 6: You know, let's ask Elon Musk he didn't oppose the
Speaker 6: defense spending bill the other day. Why not? Because he
Speaker 6: benefits from that he did support the second bill that
Speaker 6: came forward the CER yesterday once they stripped the China
Speaker 6: components out of that, because he benefits from it. So
Speaker 6: we have to think very carefully about who's benefiting from what.
Speaker 6: Yes addressed the debt ceiling. But this is not the
Speaker 6: way to do that. And Donald Trump knows that, or
Speaker 6: at least the more you know, fiscally responsible members of
Speaker 6: his party do, and they have said they won't go
Speaker 6: along with this plan.
Speaker 2: Well, as Genie alludes to Elon Musk here, Brittany, it
Speaker 2: does raise the question, as we've considered over the course
Speaker 2: of the last several days, whether or not Mike Johnson
Speaker 2: is going to be able to stay in the job
Speaker 2: as Speaker and keep the gavel in hand, how powerful
Speaker 2: the gavel really is, or if the Speaker of the
Speaker 2: House at this point is effectively someone who just has
Speaker 2: to act on behalf of the wishes of not just
Speaker 2: the president but of the world's richest man.
Speaker 7: I think that Speaker Johnson is a good guy. I
Speaker 7: think he's pretty common sense, you know, he is a
Speaker 7: pretty conservative guy. But he also is able to come
Speaker 7: to the negotiating table and work with Democrats. And we've
Speaker 7: seen that time and time again this Congress. It's going
Speaker 7: to be tough if you know, Trump every time is
Speaker 7: trying to stop what he's doing. We saw that earlier
Speaker 7: this year, specifically with that immigration bill in the Senate
Speaker 7: with Langford, how that was bipartisan and then that got
Speaker 7: tanked because Trump said no. So I think that Trump
Speaker 7: is going to continue doing that sort of thing throughout
Speaker 7: his presidency, and it's going to make it really tough
Speaker 7: not only for Senator Senator Thun but also especially for
Speaker 7: Mike Johnson because he's got a slimmer majority.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think he's not exactly the envy of a
Speaker 2: lot of people in Washington right now. It's a pretty
Speaker 2: tough job that he's dealing with. It does raise the
Speaker 2: question why he even still wants to keep it, But
Speaker 2: we don't know anyone else who could get the vote,
Speaker 2: So I guess that's where we are at this moment.
Speaker 2: Brittany Martinez, founder at a Spin and Company and Republican strategist,
Speaker 2: veteran of the Kevin McCarthy team in the House, thank
Speaker 2: you so much for joining me. One half of our
Speaker 2: political panel, of course, the other being Genie Shanzeno, Democratic
Speaker 2: strategist and Senior Democracy Fellow at the Center for the
Speaker 2: Study of the President and Congress. Thank you very much
Speaker 2: to you both for joining.
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