1 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:14,520 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:16,960 Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Apple car Play and then Broud Auto 4 00:00:17,040 --> 00:00:20,080 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you 5 00:00:20,120 --> 00:00:23,560 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,640 --> 00:00:28,080 Speaker 2: Heley Lions in Washington, where it has been an exhausting 7 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:30,880 Speaker 2: couple of days as lawmakers have been racing to beat 8 00:00:30,920 --> 00:00:34,600 Speaker 2: the clock, which runs out just about eleven hours from now. 9 00:00:34,720 --> 00:00:38,000 Speaker 2: They have until midnight tonight to avert a government shutdown, 10 00:00:38,240 --> 00:00:40,360 Speaker 2: or at the very least a technical one as we 11 00:00:40,440 --> 00:00:43,239 Speaker 2: are heading into a weekend. And of course there's a 12 00:00:43,240 --> 00:00:45,880 Speaker 2: lot of voices at play. There's what House Leadership wants, 13 00:00:45,960 --> 00:00:48,840 Speaker 2: led of course by the Speaker Mike Johnson. Then there's 14 00:00:48,920 --> 00:00:51,680 Speaker 2: what Donald Trump, the President elect, and Elon Musk, who's 15 00:00:51,680 --> 00:00:54,360 Speaker 2: coming in to help lead the Department of Government Efficiency, 16 00:00:54,920 --> 00:00:59,440 Speaker 2: want to see, including apparently a lifting of the debt stealing, 17 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:01,400 Speaker 2: but it's unclear whether or not that can get through 18 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:04,200 Speaker 2: on this day of days. In fact, what we understand 19 00:01:04,240 --> 00:01:07,319 Speaker 2: House Leadership is talking about is breaking up a package 20 00:01:07,400 --> 00:01:09,560 Speaker 2: that failed on the House floor last night with thirty 21 00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:13,720 Speaker 2: eight Republicans voting against it into multiple parts, perhaps easier 22 00:01:13,800 --> 00:01:17,160 Speaker 2: to digest for lawmakers who were reluctant to vote for 23 00:01:17,200 --> 00:01:20,039 Speaker 2: the whole thing. But a Republican conference meeting is underway 24 00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:21,959 Speaker 2: as we speak, so we want to get more details 25 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:24,560 Speaker 2: on what exactly we know, intern to Bloomberg Politics editor 26 00:01:24,880 --> 00:01:28,360 Speaker 2: Laura Davison. So, Laura, obviously this has been a fast 27 00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:32,039 Speaker 2: moving story. It's literally changing as we speak at this hour. 28 00:01:32,240 --> 00:01:33,039 Speaker 2: Where do we stand? 29 00:01:33,240 --> 00:01:35,759 Speaker 3: So House Republicans are literally in a room right now. 30 00:01:35,840 --> 00:01:38,440 Speaker 3: Mike Johnson, the Speaker, is going through the options of 31 00:01:38,440 --> 00:01:40,640 Speaker 3: what they can do, and what that looks like is 32 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:42,960 Speaker 3: having separate votes on sort of the key elements of 33 00:01:42,959 --> 00:01:45,520 Speaker 3: the bill. So one just a straight bill to extend 34 00:01:45,600 --> 00:01:49,040 Speaker 3: current levels of government funding through March. One hundred billion 35 00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:51,800 Speaker 3: dollars for disaster aid. That's exceptionally important for people in 36 00:01:52,080 --> 00:01:54,400 Speaker 3: North Carolina, Georgia, Florida who have said that they are 37 00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:56,240 Speaker 3: not going to vote for this bill unless that is 38 00:01:56,280 --> 00:01:59,640 Speaker 3: part of the mix, as well as a farm Aid 39 00:01:59,640 --> 00:02:01,960 Speaker 3: also important for a lot of different states. The question 40 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:04,120 Speaker 3: is will there be a vote on this debt ceiling piece. 41 00:02:04,160 --> 00:02:07,360 Speaker 3: This is really where Republicans in Congress and Donald Trump 42 00:02:07,400 --> 00:02:09,320 Speaker 3: are really at odds, and we saw that play out 43 00:02:09,400 --> 00:02:13,040 Speaker 3: last night when that bill really failed spectacularly on the floor. 44 00:02:13,639 --> 00:02:15,800 Speaker 3: Republicans in Congress don't want to deal with this right now. 45 00:02:15,840 --> 00:02:18,000 Speaker 3: It is clear there is not the votes to do 46 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:20,359 Speaker 3: what Trump wants to do. He originally said he thought 47 00:02:20,400 --> 00:02:22,359 Speaker 3: a two year suspension the debt sealing was good. Then 48 00:02:22,360 --> 00:02:23,959 Speaker 3: he came back at one o'clock in the morning said 49 00:02:23,960 --> 00:02:26,040 Speaker 3: how about four years? And it's not really how the 50 00:02:26,040 --> 00:02:28,320 Speaker 3: negotiation works, you know, theoretically he should be moving in 51 00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:30,680 Speaker 3: the opposite direction. So this is really going to be 52 00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:32,080 Speaker 3: a test of will for him. Is he going to 53 00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:34,560 Speaker 3: say no, seriously, guys, this is what we're doing, or 54 00:02:34,600 --> 00:02:37,720 Speaker 3: does he back down and avoid what will be a 55 00:02:37,919 --> 00:02:40,440 Speaker 3: very chaotukt at the start of his presidency, a Christmas 56 00:02:40,440 --> 00:02:42,640 Speaker 3: week shutdown, which really doesn't look good for anyone in 57 00:02:42,680 --> 00:02:43,200 Speaker 3: this process. 58 00:02:43,360 --> 00:02:45,360 Speaker 2: Well, it also becomes a question of how Mike Johnson 59 00:02:45,400 --> 00:02:47,480 Speaker 2: is going to navigate this with the President elect. Is 60 00:02:47,480 --> 00:02:50,240 Speaker 2: he willing to defy Trump's wishes when he knows he 61 00:02:50,280 --> 00:02:52,160 Speaker 2: has to abide not just by them, but also what 62 00:02:52,200 --> 00:02:54,720 Speaker 2: Elon Musk wants, also, what the will of his Republican 63 00:02:54,760 --> 00:02:57,639 Speaker 2: conference is knowing he wants to still be gavel in 64 00:02:57,720 --> 00:03:00,240 Speaker 2: hand in the one hundred and nineteenth Congress, he has 65 00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:02,359 Speaker 2: to stand for reelection a speaker in just a few weeks. 66 00:03:02,480 --> 00:03:04,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, and we saw, you know, Trump say, look, Mike 67 00:03:04,240 --> 00:03:06,720 Speaker 3: Johnson can keep his job if he's quote tough. What 68 00:03:06,880 --> 00:03:09,600 Speaker 3: is tough mean? Tough generally means that you're defending whatever 69 00:03:09,639 --> 00:03:12,240 Speaker 3: Trump wants to get done, which is not what Johnson's 70 00:03:12,280 --> 00:03:14,079 Speaker 3: members want to get done. So this is a he's 71 00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:16,880 Speaker 3: in a really tough spot. And this is really where 72 00:03:16,919 --> 00:03:19,880 Speaker 3: we found, you know, most Republican speakers you know, over 73 00:03:19,919 --> 00:03:22,440 Speaker 3: the in the past decade or so, it's these spending 74 00:03:22,440 --> 00:03:24,799 Speaker 3: fights that really test their ability. This kind of fight 75 00:03:24,919 --> 00:03:27,920 Speaker 3: is what ultimately led to Kevin McCarthy's ouster. And so 76 00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:29,800 Speaker 3: this is where you're going to see, you know, Mike Johnson, 77 00:03:29,800 --> 00:03:31,840 Speaker 3: you know, does he you know where where does this 78 00:03:31,919 --> 00:03:33,760 Speaker 3: priority lie. Is it's staying loyal to Trump? Is it 79 00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:35,480 Speaker 3: making sure to keep his members happy and sort of 80 00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:37,880 Speaker 3: providing that top cover for members of Congress who don't 81 00:03:37,880 --> 00:03:40,480 Speaker 3: want this, or is it keeping his job? Probably not 82 00:03:40,560 --> 00:03:42,520 Speaker 3: all of those things are going to be possible. Well, 83 00:03:42,640 --> 00:03:44,720 Speaker 3: especially when you consider that the House is only one 84 00:03:44,760 --> 00:03:47,240 Speaker 3: part of this equation. This has to be a package 85 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:49,440 Speaker 3: ultimately that can get through the Senate and be signed 86 00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 3: into law by President Biden for a shutdown to be averted. 87 00:03:52,480 --> 00:03:55,280 Speaker 3: Where are the Democrats in this conversation right now? Because 88 00:03:55,280 --> 00:03:58,240 Speaker 3: they're first bipartisan agreement died, they had nothing to do 89 00:03:58,360 --> 00:04:00,440 Speaker 3: with what failed on the House floor last night. 90 00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:01,640 Speaker 2: Are they at the table now? 91 00:04:01,840 --> 00:04:03,920 Speaker 3: So as of just a couple hours ago, there was 92 00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:07,960 Speaker 3: at least conversations between House Republicans and House Democrats. Hackeing 93 00:04:08,040 --> 00:04:09,800 Speaker 3: Jeffrey says that they're at you know, they're at the table, 94 00:04:09,840 --> 00:04:12,440 Speaker 3: they're talking. What that deal ultimately looks like and what 95 00:04:12,480 --> 00:04:15,240 Speaker 3: can come to pass isn't clear. It's not clear that 96 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:18,000 Speaker 3: that House Republicans even really have their preferred path forward yet. 97 00:04:18,360 --> 00:04:20,880 Speaker 3: Johnson is in the room presenting options to members, not 98 00:04:20,960 --> 00:04:22,360 Speaker 3: a you know, here's what we're going to do, which 99 00:04:22,360 --> 00:04:24,719 Speaker 3: really just signals, you know, it's less than twelve hours 100 00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:28,000 Speaker 3: until a shutdown. The risk of a shutdown just increases 101 00:04:28,040 --> 00:04:29,440 Speaker 3: every little bit. And whether this is a you know, 102 00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:31,400 Speaker 3: short term thing, that's not a huge deal. But if 103 00:04:31,400 --> 00:04:34,080 Speaker 3: this turns into a multi day or multi week situation, 104 00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:36,520 Speaker 3: this is going to be, you know, not bode well 105 00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:39,280 Speaker 3: for Republicans getting things like taxes or immigration or all 106 00:04:39,279 --> 00:04:42,000 Speaker 3: of their big policy priorities done in twenty twenty five. 107 00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:43,760 Speaker 2: It's a good reminder though, that even if this does 108 00:04:43,839 --> 00:04:46,159 Speaker 2: laps beyond midnight, it takes them the weekend to figure 109 00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:48,440 Speaker 2: this out. Because it is a weekend, you aren't necessarily 110 00:04:48,440 --> 00:04:51,520 Speaker 2: going to feel any dramatic impacts of a shutdown right away. Correct, 111 00:04:51,640 --> 00:04:55,200 Speaker 2: all right, Bloomberg's Loaura Davison, Bloomberg Politics Editor, keeping busy 112 00:04:55,600 --> 00:04:57,320 Speaker 2: as we keep track of all of the news here 113 00:04:57,360 --> 00:05:00,440 Speaker 2: from Washington. Much appreciated, and we want it to next 114 00:05:00,440 --> 00:05:02,520 Speaker 2: to someone who spent many days in the halls of 115 00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:05,280 Speaker 2: Congress dealing with battles like this one. He is former 116 00:05:05,320 --> 00:05:08,400 Speaker 2: Republican Congressman from Texas and former chair of the House 117 00:05:08,440 --> 00:05:11,200 Speaker 2: Ways and Means Committee. Kevin Brady is joining me now. 118 00:05:11,200 --> 00:05:15,760 Speaker 2: He's now spokesperson for the Alliance for Competitive Taxation. Congressman, 119 00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:18,320 Speaker 2: welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. It's always good 120 00:05:18,640 --> 00:05:21,159 Speaker 2: to have you, sir, And I know that what's going 121 00:05:21,200 --> 00:05:23,640 Speaker 2: on on Capitol Hill probably isn't all too surprising to 122 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:26,240 Speaker 2: you given history, but I do still wonder what you 123 00:05:26,360 --> 00:05:28,679 Speaker 2: make of the events of the last several days. 124 00:05:30,320 --> 00:05:32,400 Speaker 4: So one, it is great to see you again, Thank 125 00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:35,880 Speaker 4: you so much. Secondly, yes, I have lived these hours 126 00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:39,080 Speaker 4: many times, and I think, you know, one thing that 127 00:05:39,200 --> 00:05:41,760 Speaker 4: sticks out is that I think both President Trump and 128 00:05:41,800 --> 00:05:45,359 Speaker 4: Elon Musk, who have very strong support among Republicans in 129 00:05:45,400 --> 00:05:49,480 Speaker 4: the House, I think our learning what Speaker Johnson's challenges are. 130 00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:52,280 Speaker 4: You know, there are two hundred and twenty plus Republicans. 131 00:05:52,279 --> 00:05:55,600 Speaker 4: They are smart and hard working, they understand the issues, 132 00:05:55,720 --> 00:05:57,560 Speaker 4: and you know, you've got to find a way if 133 00:05:57,600 --> 00:05:59,360 Speaker 4: you're going to unite them, you've got to find the 134 00:05:59,440 --> 00:06:02,440 Speaker 4: right policy to do that. And certainly that's what the 135 00:06:02,440 --> 00:06:05,200 Speaker 4: Speaker is trying to do in that conference meeting as 136 00:06:05,240 --> 00:06:08,719 Speaker 4: we speak. I don't think there may be a technical shutdown. 137 00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:12,400 Speaker 4: I don't foresee any lengthy one at all. They are 138 00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:16,400 Speaker 4: Republicans are working toward keeping this government open one because 139 00:06:16,600 --> 00:06:20,400 Speaker 4: they don't want the distraction heading into President Trump's inauguration. 140 00:06:20,520 --> 00:06:24,280 Speaker 4: They are moving fast because they're determined not to make 141 00:06:24,279 --> 00:06:27,640 Speaker 4: the mistakes of twenty seventeen, where they they feel squandered 142 00:06:27,680 --> 00:06:31,120 Speaker 4: the first six or seven months of that President Trump's 143 00:06:31,120 --> 00:06:34,800 Speaker 4: first term. Now they're moving and secondly, the Republicans have 144 00:06:34,920 --> 00:06:37,080 Speaker 4: learned that if you shut the government down, you just 145 00:06:37,200 --> 00:06:40,080 Speaker 4: abdicate the power of the purse. You give more power 146 00:06:40,440 --> 00:06:43,800 Speaker 4: to the existing president to decide which agencies are open, 147 00:06:43,839 --> 00:06:46,479 Speaker 4: which are not, which workers are essential, which are not. 148 00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:49,919 Speaker 4: And so clearly that's not something Republicans want to do 149 00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:53,240 Speaker 4: at a time not everyone ensure you know how this 150 00:06:53,320 --> 00:06:54,200 Speaker 4: government's running, right. 151 00:06:54,279 --> 00:06:58,039 Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, I wonder what you make serve specifically the 152 00:06:58,080 --> 00:07:01,000 Speaker 2: request of Donald Trump, that is, raise the debt sealing 153 00:07:01,080 --> 00:07:04,840 Speaker 2: until I'm out of office or just abolish it entitled entirely. 154 00:07:04,880 --> 00:07:07,679 Speaker 2: Does that make sense to you, especially knowing the tax 155 00:07:07,720 --> 00:07:10,440 Speaker 2: reform that Donald Trump would like to pursue shortly after 156 00:07:10,480 --> 00:07:12,040 Speaker 2: he takes office. 157 00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:16,080 Speaker 4: Well, I think Republicans have long believed that the debt ceiling, 158 00:07:16,400 --> 00:07:21,600 Speaker 4: as dramatic and theatrical as sometimes is, which is always helpful, 159 00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:25,920 Speaker 4: that's been where history shows the most progress has been 160 00:07:25,920 --> 00:07:31,000 Speaker 4: made in creating some fiscal responsibility, and so Republicans have 161 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:34,800 Speaker 4: traditionally believed there should be some type of debt sealing, 162 00:07:34,880 --> 00:07:38,360 Speaker 4: some type of trigger that forces Congress, you know, to 163 00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:43,040 Speaker 4: pretty regularly look at the financial condition of the country 164 00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:46,160 Speaker 4: in the government and try to find a path forwards. 165 00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:49,880 Speaker 4: So that was going to be a very, very tough 166 00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:53,520 Speaker 4: lift in the best of circumstances. But there are many 167 00:07:53,600 --> 00:07:56,800 Speaker 4: Republicans House and Senate who've never voted for a debt 168 00:07:56,800 --> 00:08:01,160 Speaker 4: ceiling bill. If they have, it's been with significant spending cuts. 169 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:04,440 Speaker 4: That wasn't part of that proposal at all last night. 170 00:08:04,480 --> 00:08:06,640 Speaker 4: And so I think this is a chance again for 171 00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:10,680 Speaker 4: the President in Elon Musk on the saving side of this, 172 00:08:11,160 --> 00:08:17,680 Speaker 4: to really sit down internally work with the incoming class Republicans, 173 00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:20,440 Speaker 4: because I think the field in twenty twenty five where 174 00:08:20,440 --> 00:08:22,880 Speaker 4: they hold the House and Senate is so much better 175 00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:25,160 Speaker 4: field to find on than the one they have right 176 00:08:25,200 --> 00:08:27,840 Speaker 4: now where Democrats run the Senate in the White House. 177 00:08:28,760 --> 00:08:30,880 Speaker 2: All right, Former Congressman Kevin Brady, I do want to 178 00:08:30,880 --> 00:08:33,720 Speaker 2: get to what this future Congress is going to look 179 00:08:33,760 --> 00:08:35,320 Speaker 2: like with you. If you wouldn't mind sitting tight for 180 00:08:35,400 --> 00:08:37,920 Speaker 2: just a few minutes, we would greatly appreciate your patients, 181 00:08:38,280 --> 00:08:40,000 Speaker 2: because we do want to go live to Capitol Hill 182 00:08:40,080 --> 00:08:42,640 Speaker 2: joining us from his office right now, as Democratic Senator 183 00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:45,880 Speaker 2: Mark Warner of Virginia, Sir, thank you so much for 184 00:08:45,960 --> 00:08:48,280 Speaker 2: your time on what is obviously a very busy week 185 00:08:48,559 --> 00:08:51,200 Speaker 2: in Washington as it stands now, with the reporting we 186 00:08:51,280 --> 00:08:53,640 Speaker 2: have out of the House about their proposed path forward 187 00:08:53,679 --> 00:08:56,280 Speaker 2: splitting a bill up essentially into a number of different 188 00:08:56,320 --> 00:08:59,440 Speaker 2: ones to be voted on, can this shut down be avoided? 189 00:08:59,440 --> 00:09:01,880 Speaker 2: Can your cheap vote on this before midnight tonight? 190 00:09:02,320 --> 00:09:06,600 Speaker 5: Well, but first of all, we have seen I say, 191 00:09:06,600 --> 00:09:09,319 Speaker 5: this is somebody that was in business longer than been 192 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:15,720 Speaker 5: in politics. This was incompetence at a spectacular level. You know, 193 00:09:15,880 --> 00:09:18,160 Speaker 5: I'm looking forward to working with Donald Trump where I can, 194 00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:21,640 Speaker 5: But he prides himself on art of the deal. There 195 00:09:21,720 --> 00:09:26,000 Speaker 5: was a yeah, days and days, and I believe my 196 00:09:26,080 --> 00:09:28,760 Speaker 5: senate Republican friends who are all ready for the deal. 197 00:09:29,280 --> 00:09:31,440 Speaker 5: I think his team was told. But then to pull 198 00:09:31,480 --> 00:09:34,240 Speaker 5: the rug out from under the feet of the speaker. 199 00:09:34,600 --> 00:09:36,559 Speaker 5: I mean, is this a preview of what's going to 200 00:09:36,640 --> 00:09:40,520 Speaker 5: happen over the next four years? And you know, and 201 00:09:40,559 --> 00:09:44,319 Speaker 5: with all due respect to your your former guest, when 202 00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:46,320 Speaker 5: I was coming back on you know, the debt ceiling 203 00:09:46,400 --> 00:09:50,320 Speaker 5: is we've already wrung up those bills and it's basically saying, 204 00:09:50,600 --> 00:09:52,280 Speaker 5: are you going to pay your credit card bill on 205 00:09:52,440 --> 00:09:58,600 Speaker 5: things you've already expended? So I am concerned. I'm concerned 206 00:09:58,600 --> 00:10:01,200 Speaker 5: about if we go through this shut down, the signal 207 00:10:01,280 --> 00:10:04,640 Speaker 5: it sends to our adversaries around the world. I'm concerned 208 00:10:04,679 --> 00:10:07,600 Speaker 5: about if you know a lot of Bloomberg viewers, I'm 209 00:10:07,600 --> 00:10:09,960 Speaker 5: sure going to climb on an airplane in the next 210 00:10:09,960 --> 00:10:13,480 Speaker 5: few days to go visit family. You know, you got 211 00:10:13,640 --> 00:10:17,320 Speaker 5: a shutdown with TSA and air traffic controllers not getting paid. 212 00:10:19,080 --> 00:10:23,320 Speaker 5: This is crazy and you know, chopping it up into 213 00:10:23,360 --> 00:10:27,560 Speaker 5: three bits and it again, as we all know, the 214 00:10:27,679 --> 00:10:31,040 Speaker 5: idea that some of these extreme members on the House 215 00:10:31,080 --> 00:10:34,320 Speaker 5: Republican side are never going to vote for anything, whether 216 00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:38,880 Speaker 5: it's debt seeing or continued resolution. You know why they 217 00:10:38,880 --> 00:10:42,880 Speaker 5: are dictating some of the terms. As a business guy, 218 00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:44,960 Speaker 5: kind of goes makes me scratch our head. 219 00:10:45,120 --> 00:10:45,240 Speaker 6: You know. 220 00:10:45,360 --> 00:10:47,760 Speaker 5: Last point just is like, you know, the Senate Republicans, 221 00:10:47,800 --> 00:10:51,319 Speaker 5: the Senate Democrats, the House Democrats, we were all on 222 00:10:51,400 --> 00:10:54,760 Speaker 5: the same page. This was a bipartisan agreement and it 223 00:10:54,800 --> 00:10:57,800 Speaker 5: doesn't go poorly for what's coming next. 224 00:10:58,880 --> 00:11:01,240 Speaker 2: Well, of course that bypart is agreement is no longer 225 00:11:01,280 --> 00:11:03,719 Speaker 2: on the table. So what messaging have you gotten from 226 00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:07,200 Speaker 2: your leadership from Chuck Schumer as to what the Democrats 227 00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:09,640 Speaker 2: in the Senate will be willing to vote for here, 228 00:11:09,679 --> 00:11:11,800 Speaker 2: what is the very lowest bar that you're willing to 229 00:11:11,880 --> 00:11:13,160 Speaker 2: jump over to a vote a chef. 230 00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:19,640 Speaker 5: If anybody can predict what the House Republicans can pass, 231 00:11:19,920 --> 00:11:21,480 Speaker 5: particular if they're going to just try to pass it 232 00:11:21,520 --> 00:11:25,960 Speaker 5: with their own members, they can't. I mean the reality is, 233 00:11:26,040 --> 00:11:27,960 Speaker 5: as people know, there are a whole group of members 234 00:11:27,960 --> 00:11:31,520 Speaker 5: that will never vote for a continuing resolution. So the 235 00:11:31,559 --> 00:11:33,360 Speaker 5: notion that you can do this without working with the 236 00:11:33,400 --> 00:11:40,880 Speaker 5: Democrats is the math doesn't add up. So I remember 237 00:11:40,920 --> 00:11:45,120 Speaker 5: the pottery barn expression, if you break it, you own it. Well, 238 00:11:45,160 --> 00:11:47,320 Speaker 5: these guys broke it. So let's see what will come 239 00:11:47,360 --> 00:11:50,440 Speaker 5: out of this afternoon. But to put our put the 240 00:11:50,600 --> 00:11:54,720 Speaker 5: in jeopardy all of these families right in the holidays. 241 00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:58,480 Speaker 5: You depend upon these paychecks or the businesses that are 242 00:11:58,520 --> 00:12:02,440 Speaker 5: adjacent around tourism that will never get recouped. It is 243 00:12:02,640 --> 00:12:06,280 Speaker 5: just playing cruel, sir. 244 00:12:06,360 --> 00:12:08,280 Speaker 2: I'd like to ask you as well, how you see 245 00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:11,640 Speaker 2: this being foreboding or what you think this might signals 246 00:12:11,679 --> 00:12:14,360 Speaker 2: to the battle's still ahead, specifically in twenty twenty five, 247 00:12:14,400 --> 00:12:17,520 Speaker 2: when there will be expirations of tax cuts that have 248 00:12:17,679 --> 00:12:19,560 Speaker 2: actually led to more money in the pockets of some 249 00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:21,679 Speaker 2: of these very same people you are referring to who 250 00:12:21,760 --> 00:12:25,319 Speaker 2: could be hurt by a shutdown. Given how difficult this 251 00:12:25,400 --> 00:12:28,400 Speaker 2: funding battle has proven to be, does that suggest to 252 00:12:28,440 --> 00:12:31,240 Speaker 2: you that Democrats will have to step in to extend 253 00:12:31,640 --> 00:12:34,400 Speaker 2: those twenty seventeen tax cuts. It's your votes that will 254 00:12:34,440 --> 00:12:36,400 Speaker 2: ultimately be required for that to happen. 255 00:12:37,400 --> 00:12:40,000 Speaker 5: That's what I like this. There is over the last year, 256 00:12:41,080 --> 00:12:44,520 Speaker 5: I'm not sure there was a single bill that came 257 00:12:44,520 --> 00:12:49,079 Speaker 5: out of the House that didn't have to have Democrats help. 258 00:12:49,360 --> 00:12:54,320 Speaker 5: And listen, I'm I'm part of every bipartisan gang that's 259 00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:56,360 Speaker 5: taken place anything that's happened out of the last couple 260 00:12:56,360 --> 00:12:59,200 Speaker 5: of years in terms of infrastructure or the Chips Bill, 261 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:02,720 Speaker 5: Orctoral or not at they're a bipartisan group of us 262 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:05,560 Speaker 5: that put that together. I think, frankly that ends up 263 00:13:05,559 --> 00:13:08,400 Speaker 5: with better legislation and both parties have to own the 264 00:13:08,400 --> 00:13:11,320 Speaker 5: good and the bad. And I think again, with the 265 00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:13,240 Speaker 5: margin what one or two at the first couple of 266 00:13:13,280 --> 00:13:16,600 Speaker 5: months in the House, and some people who will find 267 00:13:16,640 --> 00:13:20,920 Speaker 5: an excuse to vote against anything, I think if they 268 00:13:20,920 --> 00:13:23,160 Speaker 5: try to do this in a bipartisan way, you know, 269 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:26,040 Speaker 5: I want America to be stay competitive. I want us 270 00:13:26,040 --> 00:13:30,440 Speaker 5: to have the best business climate in the world. But 271 00:13:30,559 --> 00:13:35,000 Speaker 5: the signal that sends if we go into this shutdown, 272 00:13:36,280 --> 00:13:39,880 Speaker 5: it's it's you know, I thought, we've all seen this 273 00:13:39,960 --> 00:13:42,200 Speaker 5: movie many times before, and there may be that final 274 00:13:42,320 --> 00:13:46,000 Speaker 5: chapter where you know there's a way out. But this 275 00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:48,760 Speaker 5: is not a way to govern the greatest country, the 276 00:13:48,760 --> 00:13:52,320 Speaker 5: most powerful country in the world. And it does make 277 00:13:52,360 --> 00:13:55,280 Speaker 5: me worried about next year. And again I say this 278 00:13:55,360 --> 00:13:58,720 Speaker 5: with somebody who I disagree with President Elect Trump on 279 00:13:58,760 --> 00:14:00,200 Speaker 5: a number of things, but I'm more than have to 280 00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:01,680 Speaker 5: work with. And I probably voted for more of his 281 00:14:02,320 --> 00:14:05,320 Speaker 5: cabinet nominees last time, and I will vote for many 282 00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:08,080 Speaker 5: of them this time. So I'm not here to kind 283 00:14:08,080 --> 00:14:12,080 Speaker 5: of just throw stones at the other side. But gosh, 284 00:14:12,360 --> 00:14:14,319 Speaker 5: you know, how do you negotiate in good faith with 285 00:14:14,400 --> 00:14:18,040 Speaker 5: somebody going forward, particularly when I believe that at least 286 00:14:18,080 --> 00:14:20,640 Speaker 5: the Trump team was aware of what the speaker was doing. 287 00:14:21,240 --> 00:14:25,680 Speaker 5: If after a handshake, somebody who a Niggs at the eleventh. 288 00:14:25,400 --> 00:14:30,000 Speaker 2: Hour, Well, sir, finally, is it really only Donald Trump 289 00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:32,400 Speaker 2: that will have to be worked with, negotiated with? Or 290 00:14:32,400 --> 00:14:34,880 Speaker 2: do we have to have Elon Musk's name on this 291 00:14:34,960 --> 00:14:36,920 Speaker 2: list as well as to who's sign off is going 292 00:14:36,960 --> 00:14:39,360 Speaker 2: to be required to get any real legislating done. 293 00:14:40,040 --> 00:14:43,920 Speaker 5: I have huge respect for Elon musk business acumen, but 294 00:14:44,000 --> 00:14:47,280 Speaker 5: the idea that he is now you know, outside of 295 00:14:47,280 --> 00:14:50,000 Speaker 5: his lanes. And I've worked with Elon Musk and I want 296 00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:51,280 Speaker 5: to work with him going forward. I think there's a 297 00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:53,120 Speaker 5: lot of efficiency that we can bring to the government. 298 00:14:53,320 --> 00:14:58,040 Speaker 5: But the idea that he's suddenly calling the plays for 299 00:14:58,120 --> 00:15:00,720 Speaker 5: how the government is going to he funded or not, 300 00:15:00,920 --> 00:15:03,440 Speaker 5: He'd be like putting me in as a as the 301 00:15:03,480 --> 00:15:07,080 Speaker 5: coach for the you know, Washington commanders. The team would 302 00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:09,640 Speaker 5: lose and a lot of people would get hurt. So 303 00:15:10,200 --> 00:15:13,000 Speaker 5: I think we all need to acknowledge you we all 304 00:15:13,040 --> 00:15:17,960 Speaker 5: bring different skill sets to the table and inefficiency. 305 00:15:18,280 --> 00:15:18,400 Speaker 6: You know. 306 00:15:18,440 --> 00:15:20,760 Speaker 5: Again, I was a big supporter of Elon Musk a 307 00:15:20,800 --> 00:15:24,640 Speaker 5: decade ago as was getting SpaceX up and operating breaking 308 00:15:24,680 --> 00:15:28,040 Speaker 5: up in the monopolies that controlled that arena. But I 309 00:15:28,080 --> 00:15:32,240 Speaker 5: do hope that you know, he understands the power he has. 310 00:15:32,640 --> 00:15:36,040 Speaker 5: He's got more followers on Twitter than Donald Trump and 311 00:15:36,320 --> 00:15:39,800 Speaker 5: candidly and don't take my work talk to any Republican. 312 00:15:39,840 --> 00:15:43,640 Speaker 5: What he was tweeting on you know, whatever day was 313 00:15:43,640 --> 00:15:46,040 Speaker 5: when the deal came out. Half of the tweets were 314 00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:48,240 Speaker 5: just factually not true. 315 00:15:49,880 --> 00:15:52,240 Speaker 2: All right, Senator, thank you very much for hopping on 316 00:15:52,280 --> 00:15:54,280 Speaker 2: to join us here on Bloomberg TV and radio. That 317 00:15:54,320 --> 00:15:57,720 Speaker 2: was Democratic Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, Your time is 318 00:15:57,800 --> 00:15:58,840 Speaker 2: much appreciated, sir. 319 00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:05,400 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens 320 00:16:05,560 --> 00:16:08,400 Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple CarPlay and 321 00:16:08,440 --> 00:16:10,960 Speaker 1: then royd Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can 322 00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:14,240 Speaker 1: also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New 323 00:16:14,320 --> 00:16:19,280 Speaker 1: York station Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 324 00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:22,480 Speaker 2: The former Congressman Kevin Brady who has been standing by 325 00:16:22,560 --> 00:16:24,480 Speaker 2: for us. He of course used to represent Texas and 326 00:16:24,520 --> 00:16:26,160 Speaker 2: was chair of the House Ways and Means Committee. Now 327 00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:30,080 Speaker 2: he's spokesman for the Alliance for Competitive Taxation. Congressman, thank 328 00:16:30,120 --> 00:16:32,720 Speaker 2: you very much for sticking with us here. I'm sure 329 00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:36,920 Speaker 2: you heard the words of Senator Warner. They're just talking about, frankly, 330 00:16:37,120 --> 00:16:39,320 Speaker 2: the fact that it has required Democrats to get a 331 00:16:39,360 --> 00:16:41,800 Speaker 2: lot of legislating done in this one hundred and eighteenth 332 00:16:41,800 --> 00:16:44,240 Speaker 2: Congress and the one hundred nineteenth when the House majority 333 00:16:44,600 --> 00:16:47,720 Speaker 2: is daven narrower. That may be true. So how much 334 00:16:47,760 --> 00:16:50,400 Speaker 2: are you catering your messaging as well? At the Alliance 335 00:16:50,400 --> 00:16:53,960 Speaker 2: for Competitive Taxation two Democrats who may be required to 336 00:16:54,000 --> 00:16:56,680 Speaker 2: get any kind of tax package over the finish line 337 00:16:56,680 --> 00:16:57,120 Speaker 2: next year. 338 00:16:58,120 --> 00:17:02,040 Speaker 4: Yes, well, well, our messaging more important. Sort of the 339 00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:06,400 Speaker 4: solutions we're advancing to keep America competitive, to make sure 340 00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:09,159 Speaker 4: our companies can compete when and where around the world, 341 00:17:09,520 --> 00:17:13,720 Speaker 4: economic growth with a low corporate tax rate, in continuing 342 00:17:14,080 --> 00:17:18,040 Speaker 4: to incentivize innovation in the US, those are really bipartisan 343 00:17:18,520 --> 00:17:22,359 Speaker 4: messages and bipartisan provisions I think within the tax code 344 00:17:22,400 --> 00:17:25,679 Speaker 4: as Congress looks at it next year, in addition to 345 00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:29,560 Speaker 4: keeping this growth and being able to counter China's super 346 00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:34,159 Speaker 4: aggressiveness around the world. Certainly the middle class tax cuts 347 00:17:34,760 --> 00:17:38,000 Speaker 4: the Republicans put in place, the new small business tax 348 00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:41,880 Speaker 4: deduction so important to main street main Street, the child 349 00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:45,560 Speaker 4: tax credits in some of those business provisions like research 350 00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:48,760 Speaker 4: and development they've already voted on in a biparson way. 351 00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:53,040 Speaker 4: There is plenty of common ground for Congress if Democrats 352 00:17:53,040 --> 00:17:56,720 Speaker 4: are willing to work with President Trump. They haven't on 353 00:17:56,840 --> 00:17:59,960 Speaker 4: tax matters in the past. We'll see if they will 354 00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:03,960 Speaker 4: or if it's needed. I think again, a lesson from 355 00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:08,800 Speaker 4: this early effort right now on passing a continuing resolution 356 00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:13,880 Speaker 4: is that in a super thin majority, the President and Republicans, 357 00:18:13,880 --> 00:18:17,680 Speaker 4: whichever parties in Franklin power, has to work very carefully, 358 00:18:17,800 --> 00:18:20,720 Speaker 4: very deliberately to make sure they've got those policies right 359 00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:23,160 Speaker 4: and can advance them well. 360 00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:26,879 Speaker 2: And it's also a matter of sequencing here, sir, the 361 00:18:26,920 --> 00:18:29,280 Speaker 2: man who now has the gavel that you once held 362 00:18:29,560 --> 00:18:32,080 Speaker 2: in ways and means, Jason Smith has been pretty adamant 363 00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:34,600 Speaker 2: that he thinks of tax reform is going to pass, 364 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:38,400 Speaker 2: it needs to be included in one big budget reconciliation package, 365 00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:41,960 Speaker 2: inclusive of other measures around the border, immigration, and energy 366 00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:43,880 Speaker 2: as well. That that's really the only way that this 367 00:18:43,880 --> 00:18:46,320 Speaker 2: thing is going to get through the House. I wonder 368 00:18:46,359 --> 00:18:48,879 Speaker 2: your thought on that, knowing that Donald Trump and the 369 00:18:48,920 --> 00:18:51,880 Speaker 2: Senate incoming Senate majority Leader John Thune seemed to still 370 00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:55,199 Speaker 2: be advocating for trying to do two hard things at 371 00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:56,200 Speaker 2: two separate times. 372 00:18:57,240 --> 00:18:59,399 Speaker 4: Yeah, so I think one. I think President Trump at 373 00:18:59,440 --> 00:19:01,639 Speaker 4: some points can waiy in to sort of break the 374 00:19:01,760 --> 00:19:05,360 Speaker 4: tie on the sequence. He certainly from holding that gave 375 00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:07,880 Speaker 4: al ways and means Committee, as you're doing the tax bill, 376 00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:11,440 Speaker 4: you want all the factors that could be a leverage 377 00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:14,120 Speaker 4: in bringing people to the table together. You want them 378 00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:19,200 Speaker 4: in that single bill. So certainly Chairman Smith's proposal is 379 00:19:19,240 --> 00:19:22,879 Speaker 4: a rational one. But regardless of whether it's one or 380 00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:25,920 Speaker 4: it's two, I think one thing everyone needs to understand 381 00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:29,280 Speaker 4: is it's a little like Mike Tyson's comments about heading 382 00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:31,920 Speaker 4: into a fight. You know, everyone's got a plan until 383 00:19:31,920 --> 00:19:35,960 Speaker 4: you get punched in the mouth. Well, reconciliation is difficult 384 00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:38,440 Speaker 4: in it's complex, and you can have the best plan 385 00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:41,320 Speaker 4: in the world on paper, but until you sit down 386 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:44,440 Speaker 4: with your members of Congress on your committee and your 387 00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:47,520 Speaker 4: conference in the House and the Senate together, you know, 388 00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:51,320 Speaker 4: you don't really know where that sequencing is going to lead. 389 00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:52,960 Speaker 4: And so I think, you know, it's good to have 390 00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:56,720 Speaker 4: the conversations they're having right now about which strategically would 391 00:19:56,720 --> 00:19:59,000 Speaker 4: work best. But at the end of the day, as 392 00:19:59,040 --> 00:20:00,960 Speaker 4: they begin to meet with the these new members coming 393 00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:03,600 Speaker 4: in as well as existing comments, I think they'll get it. 394 00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:07,960 Speaker 4: They will find a path. It'll become clear as they 395 00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:09,959 Speaker 4: have those conversations. 396 00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:13,199 Speaker 2: Well, and as we have the conversation about kind of 397 00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:15,400 Speaker 2: the government ledger here, if you will, with the spending 398 00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:17,639 Speaker 2: on the one side, the revenue on the other side, 399 00:20:17,640 --> 00:20:21,560 Speaker 2: with this tax conversation. We've had this conversation many times before, 400 00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:24,280 Speaker 2: Congressman about the notion that Donald Trump does think some 401 00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:27,440 Speaker 2: of that revenue can be supplemented by revenue coming from tariffs. 402 00:20:27,440 --> 00:20:29,439 Speaker 2: And I know you aren't all four that idea, but 403 00:20:29,480 --> 00:20:32,720 Speaker 2: he did introduce a new tariff idea into the discussion. 404 00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:35,040 Speaker 2: Early this morning, he posted on true Social that he 405 00:20:35,119 --> 00:20:37,240 Speaker 2: told the European Union that to help make up for 406 00:20:37,280 --> 00:20:40,320 Speaker 2: the deficit, the trade deficit with the United States, they 407 00:20:40,359 --> 00:20:45,119 Speaker 2: have to purchase large scale purchases of our oil and gas. Otherwise, 408 00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:48,879 Speaker 2: he says, it is tariffs all the way. And so, 409 00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:51,080 Speaker 2: while I know you aren't a big fan of using 410 00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:53,639 Speaker 2: that kind of income to increase revenue, are you a 411 00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:56,560 Speaker 2: fan of it as for using it as leverage in 412 00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:59,000 Speaker 2: a negotiation? Is that ultimately what you think this is? 413 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:03,440 Speaker 4: Well, I'm hoped so in the sense that I think 414 00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:05,879 Speaker 4: it is clear the present president home is very clear 415 00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:09,560 Speaker 4: he believes tariffs worked our advantage in moving people to 416 00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:12,920 Speaker 4: the table to have these conversations, and in his priorities 417 00:21:12,920 --> 00:21:17,320 Speaker 4: obviously border security, stopping drugs and fannyl, stopping unfair trade 418 00:21:17,400 --> 00:21:24,679 Speaker 4: packed UH practices, rebalancing trade, and getting the world to 419 00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:27,879 Speaker 4: buy more US oil, buy more US products, help US 420 00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:32,119 Speaker 4: stop Chinese transshipments, put pressure on Iran. I think he 421 00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:34,919 Speaker 4: has a whole host I think of priorities, and he 422 00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:38,040 Speaker 4: sees tariffs, or at least the threat and leverage of them, 423 00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:40,800 Speaker 4: as a way to bring countries to the table. And 424 00:21:40,840 --> 00:21:44,680 Speaker 4: I think we're all hopeful because tariffs can be so damaging, 425 00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:47,600 Speaker 4: usually more to the host country like America than it 426 00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:50,479 Speaker 4: is to the other countries you're applying it to. And 427 00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:54,119 Speaker 4: so yeah, I think people are hopeful that that that 428 00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:58,800 Speaker 4: these conversations and this approach works to bring countries to 429 00:21:58,840 --> 00:21:59,960 Speaker 4: the table and we can find. 430 00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:03,800 Speaker 2: Some all right, Sorry, I know we've gone overtime with you. 431 00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:05,760 Speaker 2: So I just have one more question for you. As 432 00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:09,600 Speaker 2: a former member, a former leader within the House of Representatives, 433 00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:12,080 Speaker 2: if you had a piece of advice for Speaker Mike 434 00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:15,560 Speaker 2: Johnson now and as he heads into another speaker election 435 00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:17,720 Speaker 2: just weeks from now, what would it be. 436 00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:22,919 Speaker 4: Well, I'll say, as a conservative, I will tell you 437 00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:27,000 Speaker 4: I'm I'm a big admirer of Speaker Johnson. Again, I 438 00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:29,600 Speaker 4: think he's taken the right approach. He listens very carefully, 439 00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:33,240 Speaker 4: certainly his word is good, and he's again one of 440 00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:36,360 Speaker 4: the most conservative speakers the ouse has ever had, who 441 00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:39,640 Speaker 4: respects the views of the entire conference. He knows how 442 00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:43,919 Speaker 4: then this margin will be not just today but in 443 00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:46,639 Speaker 4: the future. I will just tell I don't know that 444 00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:51,600 Speaker 4: I have advice except to continue to be you because 445 00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:55,520 Speaker 4: the principal's integrity you bring, that office, that leadership, I 446 00:22:55,520 --> 00:22:57,800 Speaker 4: think is what we exactly what we need right now. 447 00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:02,639 Speaker 2: All right, Congressman Kevin Brady of Texas now spokesman for 448 00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:05,920 Speaker 2: the Alliance for Competitive Taxation, thank you for being generous 449 00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:08,480 Speaker 2: with your time today. Serve very hoppy holidays to you 450 00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:10,240 Speaker 2: and years, and we'll look forward to touching base with 451 00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:12,080 Speaker 2: you again in twenty twenty five. 452 00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:19,280 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 453 00:23:19,359 --> 00:23:22,240 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo, CarPlay and 454 00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:24,960 Speaker 1: then Droud Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on 455 00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:28,280 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live 456 00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:29,560 Speaker 1: on YouTube. 457 00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:35,000 Speaker 2: As Republican lawmakers search for a planned se which they 458 00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:37,879 Speaker 2: are hoping could be successful in averting a government shutdown 459 00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:41,520 Speaker 2: when the clock strikes midnight tonight. What this plan see 460 00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:44,040 Speaker 2: will include kind of looks like what Plan B was, 461 00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:46,720 Speaker 2: though Plan B failed in spectacular fashion on the House 462 00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:49,440 Speaker 2: floor yesterday because it was a bill that put a 463 00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:52,000 Speaker 2: lot of these things together. Didn't go so well because 464 00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:55,040 Speaker 2: it included a two year extension of the debt limit. Instead, 465 00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:57,520 Speaker 2: they want to split it up. Our understanding, at least 466 00:23:57,520 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 2: at this hour things could always change, as we've learned 467 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:02,479 Speaker 2: over the course of the last few days, is to 468 00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:06,280 Speaker 2: dippy things up into three packages. One being a continuing resolution, 469 00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:09,280 Speaker 2: a stopgap measure that will keep the government funded until 470 00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:11,879 Speaker 2: mid March. That's what needs to happen to avert a 471 00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:16,480 Speaker 2: shutdown this weekend. Second part aid for natural disasters, a 472 00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:19,199 Speaker 2: lot of that targeted at the American Southeast, which is 473 00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:23,200 Speaker 2: still recovering from multiple hurricanes that we're devastating this year. Again, 474 00:24:23,280 --> 00:24:27,080 Speaker 2: pretty popular measure. Then there's a one year extension of 475 00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:30,560 Speaker 2: the Farm Bill, so aid for farmers and the agricultural sector. 476 00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:33,520 Speaker 2: The question is going to be, if it is indeed 477 00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:36,120 Speaker 2: going to be three bills, how quickly could they come 478 00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:39,480 Speaker 2: to the floor and under a rule or under suspension 479 00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:42,520 Speaker 2: of it, because that's what will dictate how many members 480 00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:44,479 Speaker 2: need to vote for it for it to pass and 481 00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:47,040 Speaker 2: get set sent to the Senate. So here with me 482 00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:49,320 Speaker 2: now is our political panel today. Brittany Martinez is a 483 00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:52,320 Speaker 2: Republican strategist and founder of a Spina and Company. She's 484 00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:55,240 Speaker 2: also a veteran of the House of Representatives, alongside Genie 485 00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:58,720 Speaker 2: shanzeno democratic strategist and senior Democracy Fellow for the Center 486 00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:01,919 Speaker 2: of the Study of the Presidency and Congress. So, Brittany, 487 00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:05,000 Speaker 2: we have an understanding of plan set at least at 488 00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:07,320 Speaker 2: this hour. What we don't yet know is how exactly 489 00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:12,320 Speaker 2: lawmakers are receiving it inside the conference room at this time. 490 00:25:12,320 --> 00:25:15,879 Speaker 2: But a lot of lawmakers obviously have expressed upset with 491 00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:18,919 Speaker 2: how Mike Johnson has handled it thus far. Can he 492 00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:22,199 Speaker 2: put Humpty Dumpty, which is the Republican conference back together 493 00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:23,120 Speaker 2: again with this plan? 494 00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:26,439 Speaker 7: I mean he's going to have to or otherwise the 495 00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:29,520 Speaker 7: government's going to close in just a few hours. Here. 496 00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:33,840 Speaker 7: I think that you know, the first this is what 497 00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:36,040 Speaker 7: sort of I'm hearing pushback from some folks are saying 498 00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:37,919 Speaker 7: he should have just put up that first bill and 499 00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:40,679 Speaker 7: bucked Trump. The problem with that, though, is that you 500 00:25:40,760 --> 00:25:44,480 Speaker 7: despite the Democrats being supportive of it and not whipping 501 00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:48,239 Speaker 7: against it, it would have frustrated Trump and you know, 502 00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:50,639 Speaker 7: the Republican Party. And though it would have passed and 503 00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:53,920 Speaker 7: we wouldn't be in the situation right now, Trump's bill 504 00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:56,639 Speaker 7: that he wanted yesterday also didn't pass. So though I 505 00:25:56,640 --> 00:26:00,000 Speaker 7: think it's good to have individual bills, that's always republic 506 00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:02,800 Speaker 7: can tell and want to do. In reality, when we're 507 00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:05,280 Speaker 7: getting down to the eleventh hour and I don't think 508 00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:08,359 Speaker 7: we literally have even eleven hours left before the government 509 00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:12,600 Speaker 7: shuts down, that's not the best policy, But at this point, 510 00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:15,320 Speaker 7: what choice do we have. I think that it might 511 00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:18,240 Speaker 7: be successful, but you're probably going to have folks like 512 00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:20,960 Speaker 7: members of the Freedom COUCKUS who still aren't satisfied, and 513 00:26:21,359 --> 00:26:23,600 Speaker 7: I think we will probably hit a government shutdown, even 514 00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:24,920 Speaker 7: if it only lasts for a day or two. 515 00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:28,600 Speaker 2: Well, if you're with us on Bloomberg TV, you see 516 00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:30,560 Speaker 2: we got the shutdown clock up, so it's about ten 517 00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:33,120 Speaker 2: and a half hours left until the deadline right now 518 00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:36,639 Speaker 2: for those listening on Bloomberg Radio. But Genie I was 519 00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:39,120 Speaker 2: just speaking a few moments ago with Democratic Senator Mark 520 00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:41,479 Speaker 2: Warner of Virginian And when I asked him, Hey, what 521 00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:43,800 Speaker 2: are you willing to vote for here to avert a shutdown? 522 00:26:43,840 --> 00:26:46,239 Speaker 2: He basically said, we can't predict what's coming out of 523 00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:49,600 Speaker 2: the House. I just wonder how you take that answer 524 00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:52,800 Speaker 2: or what you're expecting really is the thinking from the 525 00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:56,480 Speaker 2: democratically controlled Senate, which would be the next stop on 526 00:26:56,560 --> 00:26:58,120 Speaker 2: this continuing resolution train. 527 00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:02,200 Speaker 6: Yeah, and it was such an important conversation you had 528 00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:05,200 Speaker 6: with Senator Warner, and in particular, he echoed what we've 529 00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:08,680 Speaker 6: been hearing from Democrats, which was his pottery barn theme. 530 00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:11,800 Speaker 6: You break it, you buy it, and that's what Democrats 531 00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:15,879 Speaker 6: feel that the Republican Party has done. And so they've 532 00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:19,240 Speaker 6: got to own that in terms of this three step process. 533 00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:21,520 Speaker 6: If that does indeed come out, it's going to depend 534 00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:25,000 Speaker 6: on what's in there. You know, Donald Trump tweeting in 535 00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:27,639 Speaker 6: the middle of the night that maybe the debt ceiling 536 00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:30,000 Speaker 6: should be raised for four years as opposed to two 537 00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:33,560 Speaker 6: is going in exactly the opposite direction. If they're planning 538 00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:36,919 Speaker 6: on something like that, Democrats won't go along with it. 539 00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:41,440 Speaker 6: And quite frankly, they can't move forward Republicans because their 540 00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:44,679 Speaker 6: own Republicans won't go along with it. And this speaks 541 00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:48,280 Speaker 6: to a huge problem that the Republicans have. They have 542 00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:53,560 Speaker 6: talked about fiscal responsibility, and yet they are supporting somebody 543 00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:57,879 Speaker 6: who the Committee for Responsible Budget Estimated has put forward 544 00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:01,160 Speaker 6: plans during a campaign to raise the debt by seven 545 00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:06,000 Speaker 6: point seventy five brillion dollars. That was the moderate estimate 546 00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:10,120 Speaker 6: that the committee put forward. How is that physically responsible? 547 00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:12,840 Speaker 6: It is not, and that is what has driven this 548 00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:15,840 Speaker 6: divide in the Republican party. That is why you see 549 00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:19,920 Speaker 6: Republicans very very interesting. Donald Trump's not in office yet, 550 00:28:20,119 --> 00:28:24,359 Speaker 6: yet thirty eight Republicans last night, without fear, stood up 551 00:28:24,400 --> 00:28:26,800 Speaker 6: and voted against him and Elon Musk, and that is 552 00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:30,280 Speaker 6: a precursor of what is to come in this all 553 00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:31,879 Speaker 6: Republican Washington d c. 554 00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:37,240 Speaker 2: Well on the debt and deficits specifically and the debt ceiling, 555 00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:39,240 Speaker 2: which Donald Trump has said he wants to raise or 556 00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:43,400 Speaker 2: abolish before he takes office. Genie, I would point out 557 00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:46,400 Speaker 2: that Democrats have been calling to repeal the debt ceiling 558 00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:48,720 Speaker 2: for a long time. Just last week there was I 559 00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:51,720 Speaker 2: believe seventeen co sponsors on a piece of legislation in 560 00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:54,480 Speaker 2: the Senate that would have gotten rid of the debt ceiling. 561 00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:56,680 Speaker 2: So is it really appropriate to be changing the two 562 00:28:56,760 --> 00:29:00,120 Speaker 2: nour Is this actually an area in which Democrats and 563 00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:01,960 Speaker 2: Donald Trump might be able to work together. 564 00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:05,440 Speaker 6: Well, they may be able to work together, but I'm 565 00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:08,160 Speaker 6: so glad you raised that because the difference is when 566 00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:12,000 Speaker 6: Democrats want to raise or abolish the debt ceiling, which 567 00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:15,240 Speaker 6: is fiscally sound and should happen, it is not for 568 00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:18,480 Speaker 6: the narrow prospects that Donald Trump and Elon Musk put 569 00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:21,680 Speaker 6: forward yesterday, which is so they can ram through an 570 00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:25,959 Speaker 6: extension of the corporate and billionaire's tax cuts. That is 571 00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:28,880 Speaker 6: what is adding to the deficit. That's why they can't 572 00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:32,200 Speaker 6: get the support of people like Chip Roy and so 573 00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:35,600 Speaker 6: that is the problem they have. Yes, we need sound 574 00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:39,000 Speaker 6: fiscal management in this country, and Elon Musk is absolutely 575 00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:41,320 Speaker 6: right when he says we don't have it. The way 576 00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:45,120 Speaker 6: to get it is not to shut down a bipartisan 577 00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:48,280 Speaker 6: agreement hours before it goes through to keep the government open, 578 00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:49,240 Speaker 6: and it is. 579 00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:50,080 Speaker 5: Not to do so. 580 00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:53,400 Speaker 6: You know, let's ask Elon Musk he didn't oppose the 581 00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:56,880 Speaker 6: defense spending bill the other day. Why not? Because he 582 00:29:57,080 --> 00:30:00,840 Speaker 6: benefits from that he did support the second bill that 583 00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:04,120 Speaker 6: came forward the CER yesterday once they stripped the China 584 00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:07,160 Speaker 6: components out of that, because he benefits from it. So 585 00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:10,320 Speaker 6: we have to think very carefully about who's benefiting from what. 586 00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:13,200 Speaker 6: Yes addressed the debt ceiling. But this is not the 587 00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:16,200 Speaker 6: way to do that. And Donald Trump knows that, or 588 00:30:16,200 --> 00:30:20,160 Speaker 6: at least the more you know, fiscally responsible members of 589 00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:22,240 Speaker 6: his party do, and they have said they won't go 590 00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:23,240 Speaker 6: along with this plan. 591 00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:28,280 Speaker 2: Well, as Genie alludes to Elon Musk here, Brittany, it 592 00:30:28,320 --> 00:30:30,480 Speaker 2: does raise the question, as we've considered over the course 593 00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:32,520 Speaker 2: of the last several days, whether or not Mike Johnson 594 00:30:32,600 --> 00:30:34,120 Speaker 2: is going to be able to stay in the job 595 00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:37,440 Speaker 2: as Speaker and keep the gavel in hand, how powerful 596 00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:39,960 Speaker 2: the gavel really is, or if the Speaker of the 597 00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:42,280 Speaker 2: House at this point is effectively someone who just has 598 00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:44,640 Speaker 2: to act on behalf of the wishes of not just 599 00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:47,080 Speaker 2: the president but of the world's richest man. 600 00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:51,720 Speaker 7: I think that Speaker Johnson is a good guy. I 601 00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:54,280 Speaker 7: think he's pretty common sense, you know, he is a 602 00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:57,200 Speaker 7: pretty conservative guy. But he also is able to come 603 00:30:57,240 --> 00:30:59,840 Speaker 7: to the negotiating table and work with Democrats. And we've 604 00:30:59,840 --> 00:31:02,800 Speaker 7: seen that time and time again this Congress. It's going 605 00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:05,680 Speaker 7: to be tough if you know, Trump every time is 606 00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:08,360 Speaker 7: trying to stop what he's doing. We saw that earlier 607 00:31:08,360 --> 00:31:11,400 Speaker 7: this year, specifically with that immigration bill in the Senate 608 00:31:11,600 --> 00:31:14,360 Speaker 7: with Langford, how that was bipartisan and then that got 609 00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:16,800 Speaker 7: tanked because Trump said no. So I think that Trump 610 00:31:16,880 --> 00:31:20,120 Speaker 7: is going to continue doing that sort of thing throughout 611 00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:22,640 Speaker 7: his presidency, and it's going to make it really tough 612 00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:28,040 Speaker 7: not only for Senator Senator Thun but also especially for 613 00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:30,400 Speaker 7: Mike Johnson because he's got a slimmer majority. 614 00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:34,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think he's not exactly the envy of a 615 00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:37,120 Speaker 2: lot of people in Washington right now. It's a pretty 616 00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:39,640 Speaker 2: tough job that he's dealing with. It does raise the 617 00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:41,520 Speaker 2: question why he even still wants to keep it, But 618 00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:43,720 Speaker 2: we don't know anyone else who could get the vote, 619 00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:45,920 Speaker 2: So I guess that's where we are at this moment. 620 00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:49,040 Speaker 2: Brittany Martinez, founder at a Spin and Company and Republican strategist, 621 00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:52,160 Speaker 2: veteran of the Kevin McCarthy team in the House, thank 622 00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:53,880 Speaker 2: you so much for joining me. One half of our 623 00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:57,040 Speaker 2: political panel, of course, the other being Genie Shanzeno, Democratic 624 00:31:57,040 --> 00:31:59,240 Speaker 2: strategist and Senior Democracy Fellow at the Center for the 625 00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:02,120 Speaker 2: Study of the President and Congress. Thank you very much 626 00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:03,560 Speaker 2: to you both for joining. 627 00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:09,880 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make 628 00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:12,840 Speaker 1: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 629 00:32:12,920 --> 00:32:15,520 Speaker 1: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 630 00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:19,280 Speaker 1: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at Noontimeeastern at 631 00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:20,520 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com.