1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:27,840 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube for all. 6 00:00:27,760 --> 00:00:31,760 Speaker 2: Of you worldwide in the levant in America, nor Roubini, no, 7 00:00:32,560 --> 00:00:35,160 Speaker 2: it joins us those wonderful books. All that he's done 8 00:00:35,200 --> 00:00:39,160 Speaker 2: for me over the years, going way way back pre 9 00:00:39,280 --> 00:00:42,360 Speaker 2: crisis is well, let me just get bitcoined out of 10 00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:44,480 Speaker 2: the way. I don't waste time on it. We've had 11 00:00:44,520 --> 00:00:48,760 Speaker 2: not one but two of our guests emphatically state Rubini's right, 12 00:00:48,920 --> 00:00:52,280 Speaker 2: it's going to ten thousand. Is bitdog going down from 13 00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:54,400 Speaker 2: sixty thousand to ten thousand. 14 00:00:55,800 --> 00:00:59,480 Speaker 3: I think it doesn't matter. I don't make predictions. It 15 00:00:59,520 --> 00:01:03,960 Speaker 3: could go significantly lower, could stay where it is. But 16 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:06,399 Speaker 3: the point is that you know Bitcoin is down from 17 00:01:06,440 --> 00:01:10,720 Speaker 3: his peak by fifty percent. The other top ten cryptocurrencies 18 00:01:10,760 --> 00:01:15,399 Speaker 3: are down between sixty to ninety percent. You know, Millennia 19 00:01:15,480 --> 00:01:18,840 Speaker 3: coin and the trump coiner down ninety seven ninety nine percent, 20 00:01:19,120 --> 00:01:22,759 Speaker 3: even worse than fart Coin is done only ninety five 21 00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:27,720 Speaker 3: percent which mean, well, you know it's a traded currency, 22 00:01:27,840 --> 00:01:31,400 Speaker 3: so and you know the NFT index is down ninety 23 00:01:31,400 --> 00:01:33,960 Speaker 3: five percent from the peak. So it was a bubble 24 00:01:34,160 --> 00:01:37,839 Speaker 3: as first. Whether bitcong goes much lower or out, who cares? 25 00:01:38,720 --> 00:01:39,640 Speaker 3: Who cares? 26 00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:42,800 Speaker 4: You were saying that you've just come off three weeks 27 00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:45,600 Speaker 4: of travel. A where were you? 28 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:46,480 Speaker 5: And B what did you learn? 29 00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:47,600 Speaker 2: Well? 30 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:53,240 Speaker 3: I spent a good amount of time between Saudi Arabia, Israel, Dubai, 31 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:56,720 Speaker 3: and Abu Dhabi. I would say that foremost on people's 32 00:01:56,760 --> 00:01:59,480 Speaker 3: mind was the question of whether there will be another 33 00:01:59,560 --> 00:02:03,000 Speaker 3: conflict between Israel and US and one side and Iran 34 00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:06,920 Speaker 3: debated in Israel, in Saudi throughout the golf. We don't know. 35 00:02:06,960 --> 00:02:09,880 Speaker 3: There are negotiations. I would say the Israeli view is 36 00:02:09,919 --> 00:02:13,560 Speaker 3: that probably it's not just a niche about nuclear bomb 37 00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:17,519 Speaker 3: but also about the missiles, but it's stick missiles and 38 00:02:17,560 --> 00:02:18,600 Speaker 3: the regional proxies. 39 00:02:19,200 --> 00:02:20,720 Speaker 6: While Trump may just cut. 40 00:02:20,720 --> 00:02:23,919 Speaker 3: The deal on the nuclear bomb alone, that will leave 41 00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:26,320 Speaker 3: Israel in a weaker position, But we'll see what are 42 00:02:26,360 --> 00:02:28,359 Speaker 3: going to be the results of those negotiations. 43 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:32,720 Speaker 4: Other than geopolitics, there's been a move just kind of 44 00:02:32,720 --> 00:02:35,640 Speaker 4: feeling that the US maybe has lost a little bit 45 00:02:35,880 --> 00:02:39,240 Speaker 4: of its exceptionalism. There are other opportunities to invest outside 46 00:02:39,280 --> 00:02:41,400 Speaker 4: of the US. We've seen that over the last six 47 00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:45,919 Speaker 4: to twelve months. Is that something you sense in your tramas, Oh. 48 00:02:45,720 --> 00:02:46,320 Speaker 6: Yes or no. 49 00:02:47,600 --> 00:02:50,640 Speaker 3: What they feel is people say we don't like the 50 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:53,680 Speaker 3: US in public, and then they invest in the US. 51 00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:57,440 Speaker 3: I mean, throughout the golf, whether it's Saudis or Emiratis 52 00:02:57,560 --> 00:03:01,440 Speaker 3: or Kataris, there's an alternative to the United States. And 53 00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:04,120 Speaker 3: I think for a good reason. You know, I've argued that, 54 00:03:04,200 --> 00:03:06,639 Speaker 3: actually I'm a technoptimist that US potential growth at the 55 00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:09,000 Speaker 3: end of this decade is going to be four percent, 56 00:03:09,160 --> 00:03:12,320 Speaker 3: not two. And if you had American exceptionalism when growth 57 00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:16,240 Speaker 3: was two percent and the SMP was returning to twelve 58 00:03:16,280 --> 00:03:19,840 Speaker 3: percent including dividends for twenty years and as like sixteen percent, 59 00:03:20,160 --> 00:03:22,239 Speaker 3: if growth is even only three little on three and 60 00:03:22,240 --> 00:03:25,600 Speaker 3: a half and four, then returns have to be even higher. 61 00:03:25,760 --> 00:03:27,880 Speaker 3: So yeah, the short term there is now volatility, but 62 00:03:27,919 --> 00:03:30,040 Speaker 3: that's short term volatility. If you look in the medium 63 00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:32,399 Speaker 3: term with three four percent growth and will be there 64 00:03:32,480 --> 00:03:35,080 Speaker 3: because of the technology in US is number one together 65 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:37,560 Speaker 3: with China in all of the industries of the future. 66 00:03:37,560 --> 00:03:39,920 Speaker 3: It's not just say either about fifteen other ones. Then 67 00:03:39,960 --> 00:03:42,560 Speaker 3: American exceptional is not over, actually is going to be 68 00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:45,240 Speaker 3: reinforced over time. And there is no other place to 69 00:03:45,280 --> 00:03:48,200 Speaker 3: invest in the United States because China is risky and 70 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:50,320 Speaker 3: uninvestable for lots of good reasons. 71 00:03:50,640 --> 00:03:55,800 Speaker 2: Norbini I was diposed bulletproof academics. Whatever your political view is, 72 00:03:55,880 --> 00:04:01,520 Speaker 2: it is truly outstanding international economics normal Beini. On tariffs, 73 00:04:01,560 --> 00:04:05,440 Speaker 2: I'm reading the Morgan one volume, and William McKinley Trump 74 00:04:05,520 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 2: is fixated on the Gilded Age and the benefits of tariffs. 75 00:04:10,200 --> 00:04:12,280 Speaker 2: I don't buy it for a minute. And I'm looking 76 00:04:12,320 --> 00:04:17,760 Speaker 2: for McKinley's buffalo pivot where politicians walk back the talk. 77 00:04:18,240 --> 00:04:21,680 Speaker 2: Are we going to see in twenty twenty six tariff 78 00:04:21,760 --> 00:04:26,599 Speaker 2: reduction by the president in some manner like a buffalo pivot? 79 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:30,680 Speaker 3: Oh, it already happened in twenty twenty five, and it's 80 00:04:30,720 --> 00:04:33,080 Speaker 3: going to be more of it in twenty twenty six. 81 00:04:33,160 --> 00:04:36,440 Speaker 3: You know, on April second, he announced average effective tariffs 82 00:04:36,440 --> 00:04:41,320 Speaker 3: of thirty percent, as opposed to the pre April psycond liberation. 83 00:04:41,400 --> 00:04:44,600 Speaker 3: They three percent, but they said right away that market 84 00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:46,839 Speaker 3: discipline is going to force him to check it out 85 00:04:46,839 --> 00:04:50,000 Speaker 3: and back down. And two weeks into that announcement, Nasdaq 86 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:53,640 Speaker 3: was done. Twenty percent SMP fifteen ten you treasure yieldware 87 00:04:54,080 --> 00:04:57,080 Speaker 3: up eighty busis points. How he spread up hundary fifty 88 00:04:57,279 --> 00:04:59,800 Speaker 3: the dollar aside to go freefall, and he panicked and 89 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:01,880 Speaker 3: panic they started to do trade deal and it gave 90 00:05:01,920 --> 00:05:03,480 Speaker 3: the job to Scott Besson. 91 00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:05,640 Speaker 6: And guess what the average. 92 00:05:05,360 --> 00:05:08,040 Speaker 3: US startiff right now is not thirty percent, is fourteen 93 00:05:08,240 --> 00:05:11,960 Speaker 3: and falling because there is an inflation affordability crisis. And 94 00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:15,160 Speaker 3: every day they cut back the tariffs on aluminum, on 95 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:18,680 Speaker 3: coffee in loco and whatever. They're desperate, and therefore they 96 00:05:18,760 --> 00:05:22,400 Speaker 3: already chickened out in twenty five because the market forced them. 97 00:05:22,720 --> 00:05:24,880 Speaker 3: They'll do more of it this year because that of 98 00:05:24,960 --> 00:05:27,400 Speaker 3: course meet them election and they need to try to 99 00:05:27,400 --> 00:05:31,000 Speaker 3: boost the economy and reduced inflation. So taffs are going down, 100 00:05:31,080 --> 00:05:31,400 Speaker 3: not up. 101 00:05:32,240 --> 00:05:36,760 Speaker 4: Has the whole terror of discussion our real maybe permanently 102 00:05:36,839 --> 00:05:40,640 Speaker 4: or at least an intermediate term negatively impact just trade 103 00:05:41,360 --> 00:05:45,000 Speaker 4: the US between various partners, or is this something that 104 00:05:45,040 --> 00:05:46,160 Speaker 4: everybody can just get past? 105 00:05:46,279 --> 00:05:46,600 Speaker 6: You think? 106 00:05:47,839 --> 00:05:50,680 Speaker 3: You know, there's been some short and volatility, there's been 107 00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:53,400 Speaker 3: some shrinkages of our inputs from the rest of the world. 108 00:05:54,040 --> 00:05:56,400 Speaker 3: My view is actually the US trade and current condect 109 00:05:56,440 --> 00:06:00,000 Speaker 3: you see it, regardless of tariffs, it's gonna widen because 110 00:06:00,120 --> 00:06:03,200 Speaker 3: from a macro point of view, the trade balance is 111 00:06:03,200 --> 00:06:06,720 Speaker 3: not experts MANUS imports. It's savings minus investment in US 112 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:08,800 Speaker 3: is in the middle of an investment boom driven by 113 00:06:08,880 --> 00:06:10,880 Speaker 3: a i inte. Clouds of the future. It's like an 114 00:06:10,880 --> 00:06:13,400 Speaker 3: emerging market I fan oil or something. Where you have 115 00:06:13,440 --> 00:06:16,800 Speaker 3: an investment boom and your domestic private and public savings 116 00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:19,479 Speaker 3: are lower, then you have a current round deficit. So 117 00:06:19,560 --> 00:06:22,680 Speaker 3: our current investment is going to become larger, not smaller, 118 00:06:22,800 --> 00:06:24,600 Speaker 3: even if you have thirty percent tar if. That's a 119 00:06:24,680 --> 00:06:28,320 Speaker 3: micro view, and it doesn't matter because the info capital 120 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:34,000 Speaker 3: equity investment to finance it, FDIBC, startups, you name it, 121 00:06:34,080 --> 00:06:36,520 Speaker 3: pford investment is going to finance that. So not only 122 00:06:36,560 --> 00:06:39,400 Speaker 3: American exception is not over. The exorbitant privilege of the 123 00:06:39,480 --> 00:06:41,960 Speaker 3: US dollar is not over, and even the weakness of 124 00:06:42,000 --> 00:06:43,880 Speaker 3: the dollar is only short term. Over the midium time 125 00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:45,880 Speaker 3: we four percent growth, the dollars is going to be 126 00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:48,040 Speaker 3: much stronger and the uro is going to be much weaker. 127 00:06:48,080 --> 00:06:51,000 Speaker 2: Are you predicting an advancing dollar from here? Does it 128 00:06:51,080 --> 00:06:52,760 Speaker 2: have to weaken down and then we get a bit 129 00:06:52,839 --> 00:06:53,120 Speaker 2: on the. 130 00:06:53,080 --> 00:06:55,440 Speaker 3: Dollars Listen, in the next few months, we can more 131 00:06:55,480 --> 00:06:58,200 Speaker 3: depending on relative market policy. But I'm asking yourself, I 132 00:06:58,200 --> 00:07:00,599 Speaker 3: suppose you are twenty thirty at the end of this decade, 133 00:07:00,640 --> 00:07:03,480 Speaker 3: the US grow these four and Eurozone is stuck at 134 00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:07,520 Speaker 3: one percent real infestrates real. It depends on real growth 135 00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:10,160 Speaker 3: rates just because the time the U has to be 136 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:11,080 Speaker 3: a well bilow party. 137 00:07:11,400 --> 00:07:14,080 Speaker 2: This questionnaire was brilliant and I got this in. Are 138 00:07:14,120 --> 00:07:20,360 Speaker 2: we stealing investment from other parts of American enterprise with 139 00:07:20,640 --> 00:07:24,760 Speaker 2: all this money going into AI technology and data centers? 140 00:07:25,360 --> 00:07:26,280 Speaker 6: No, I don't think so. 141 00:07:26,960 --> 00:07:28,880 Speaker 3: I don't think so, because, first of all, to be 142 00:07:29,000 --> 00:07:33,080 Speaker 3: all AI data centers, there's a supply chains of construction 143 00:07:33,520 --> 00:07:38,400 Speaker 3: of equipment of everything, cooling, heating system you name it, 144 00:07:38,480 --> 00:07:41,800 Speaker 3: the chips, supply chains and so on, and you know, 145 00:07:41,880 --> 00:07:46,480 Speaker 3: and these booming capex is maintaining economic growth strong, and 146 00:07:46,560 --> 00:07:48,560 Speaker 3: that's going to be good for the economy for many 147 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:51,920 Speaker 3: other sectors. And secondly, it's not just the hyper skilled 148 00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:53,960 Speaker 3: mark seven. And do you investment AI if you have 149 00:07:54,160 --> 00:07:57,640 Speaker 3: any Smpif avanded firm today and you don't have an 150 00:07:57,640 --> 00:08:01,000 Speaker 3: AI strategy, you're dead because you could be disrupted by 151 00:08:01,000 --> 00:08:03,840 Speaker 3: a competitor, or by a tech firm, or by whatever. 152 00:08:04,120 --> 00:08:06,520 Speaker 3: So everybody is trying to play with AI. Now we're 153 00:08:06,520 --> 00:08:10,520 Speaker 3: not yet seeing the significant increases in productivity growth. We 154 00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:12,520 Speaker 3: see them at the macro level, by the way, but 155 00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:13,400 Speaker 3: we don't see them. 156 00:08:13,240 --> 00:08:14,040 Speaker 6: For every firm. 157 00:08:14,480 --> 00:08:18,680 Speaker 3: But profit margins for every SMP five undred firm has increased. 158 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:22,160 Speaker 3: The real revenues for all SMP five hundred firms have 159 00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:25,320 Speaker 3: gone up since strategy has been launched by fifteen percent, 160 00:08:25,400 --> 00:08:27,880 Speaker 3: so five percent per year. So they're already signs that 161 00:08:27,880 --> 00:08:32,000 Speaker 3: there is this increasing productivity growth across the economy. So 162 00:08:32,080 --> 00:08:34,720 Speaker 3: everybody has to have an AI strategy. So everybody is 163 00:08:34,720 --> 00:08:38,360 Speaker 3: doing apects. It's not just the maproscalar story, noreal. 164 00:08:38,600 --> 00:08:41,040 Speaker 4: Can this economy grow at four percent as you suggest, 165 00:08:41,240 --> 00:08:45,280 Speaker 4: with no immigration? Do we need an immigration policy that 166 00:08:45,360 --> 00:08:47,200 Speaker 4: allows population growth? 167 00:08:47,520 --> 00:08:49,840 Speaker 3: Well, we need it because we have a bottleneck of 168 00:08:49,960 --> 00:08:55,479 Speaker 3: skill labor. You know, TSMC is building a factory in Arizona. 169 00:08:55,840 --> 00:08:57,960 Speaker 3: I spoke with people in Taiwana. I said, we don't 170 00:08:58,000 --> 00:09:00,720 Speaker 3: have the skill worker in Arizona, So they have hundreds 171 00:09:00,800 --> 00:09:04,560 Speaker 3: or thousands of engineers of the SMC going there initially 172 00:09:04,559 --> 00:09:06,199 Speaker 3: for a few months. Now they left to be there 173 00:09:06,400 --> 00:09:08,760 Speaker 3: for a few years. So you need a more intelligent 174 00:09:09,120 --> 00:09:11,760 Speaker 3: immigration policy with more H one B visa so that 175 00:09:12,120 --> 00:09:15,839 Speaker 3: skill workers can work in the United States. But even 176 00:09:15,880 --> 00:09:18,680 Speaker 3: if we had net migration that was close to zero, 177 00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:21,680 Speaker 3: I think the increases in productivity growth driven by the 178 00:09:21,679 --> 00:09:23,959 Speaker 3: technlouds of the future, and AI is one of the 179 00:09:24,040 --> 00:09:26,880 Speaker 3: fifteen of them. Everybody's successed with AEI is just one 180 00:09:26,880 --> 00:09:29,600 Speaker 3: piece of the story. That are fifteen other sectors where 181 00:09:29,600 --> 00:09:31,520 Speaker 3: there is a productie growth because of the technology of 182 00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:33,520 Speaker 3: the future. So that's going to lead to an increasing 183 00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:36,560 Speaker 3: producty growth regardless of job grades. That's why there is 184 00:09:36,559 --> 00:09:39,200 Speaker 3: a gap between GDP and jobs because there's a booming 185 00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:40,040 Speaker 3: productivity growth. 186 00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:41,360 Speaker 6: That's what's already happening. 187 00:09:41,480 --> 00:09:43,640 Speaker 3: We don't have the workers who are cutting back on 188 00:09:43,720 --> 00:09:47,000 Speaker 3: net migration, we are deporting people, and growth is actually 189 00:09:47,120 --> 00:09:49,960 Speaker 3: accelerating rather than thecelerating. 190 00:09:49,520 --> 00:09:51,880 Speaker 2: Nor rebiny with the soos who welcome all of you 191 00:09:51,920 --> 00:09:56,280 Speaker 2: across the nation, we welcome you worldwide as well, from 192 00:09:56,480 --> 00:10:02,040 Speaker 2: Istanbul to Tehran to Tel Aviv and then on Italy, 193 00:10:02,200 --> 00:10:05,920 Speaker 2: which is Normalubini out of a suitcase. In his childhood, 194 00:10:06,080 --> 00:10:09,319 Speaker 2: you have a perspective old world, new world like no 195 00:10:09,400 --> 00:10:14,160 Speaker 2: one I know because of your tumultuous childhood, and you're superior, 196 00:10:14,480 --> 00:10:20,280 Speaker 2: brilliant academics, a Piconian and others. How do you see 197 00:10:20,360 --> 00:10:24,880 Speaker 2: America after this second term of President Trump? Do we 198 00:10:24,960 --> 00:10:28,640 Speaker 2: go back to the processes for example you had serving 199 00:10:28,640 --> 00:10:30,840 Speaker 2: in the White House with Bill Clinton? Do we go 200 00:10:30,920 --> 00:10:33,719 Speaker 2: on to a new populism? How do you see us 201 00:10:34,080 --> 00:10:34,800 Speaker 2: after Trump? 202 00:10:35,559 --> 00:10:37,480 Speaker 3: You know, I think that Trump is going to be 203 00:10:37,640 --> 00:10:43,120 Speaker 3: more a temporary exception rather than radical change of the US. Yes, 204 00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:45,200 Speaker 3: there is a little bit more popularism because there are 205 00:10:45,240 --> 00:10:48,200 Speaker 3: plenty of people left behind. Some of them vote for 206 00:10:48,240 --> 00:10:51,560 Speaker 3: the Progressive, some of them vote MAGA, but there'll be 207 00:10:51,600 --> 00:10:54,400 Speaker 3: the strong increasing growth. I think that after Meet Them election, 208 00:10:54,559 --> 00:10:58,400 Speaker 3: if the GOP loses the House, Trump is going to 209 00:10:58,440 --> 00:11:01,920 Speaker 3: be a Lindak. Anybody from ged Evans to Marco Rubio 210 00:11:02,160 --> 00:11:03,720 Speaker 3: to a bunch of other going to say, I want 211 00:11:03,720 --> 00:11:06,599 Speaker 3: to run, great job president for two terms. Even in 212 00:11:06,679 --> 00:11:08,840 Speaker 3: Supreme Court. It's not going to allow him to run 213 00:11:08,880 --> 00:11:11,559 Speaker 3: for a third term. And therefore, you know, is it 214 00:11:11,600 --> 00:11:13,280 Speaker 3: going to be linked back, and we're going to whoever 215 00:11:13,360 --> 00:11:15,760 Speaker 3: is going to be elected, maybe with the exception of 216 00:11:15,840 --> 00:11:17,960 Speaker 3: ged Evans, but even a Marco Ruby is going to 217 00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:22,440 Speaker 3: be somehow in between the traditional you know, George Bush 218 00:11:22,679 --> 00:11:26,320 Speaker 3: Republican party and more populist one. So and we have 219 00:11:26,400 --> 00:11:29,880 Speaker 3: stronger economic growth. I think some of these backlash against 220 00:11:29,960 --> 00:11:33,200 Speaker 3: liberal democracy and free market is going to shrink. There 221 00:11:33,200 --> 00:11:35,760 Speaker 3: will be some of the backlash. I think we've hired growth. 222 00:11:36,080 --> 00:11:38,199 Speaker 3: Some of these concerns about in a quality and other 223 00:11:38,240 --> 00:11:40,160 Speaker 3: things are going to be lessened over time. 224 00:11:41,440 --> 00:11:43,960 Speaker 4: Nia, with all your travels and all your contacts around 225 00:11:43,960 --> 00:11:48,520 Speaker 4: the world, is the US leadership position, which it's held 226 00:11:49,080 --> 00:11:52,360 Speaker 4: generally interrupted since the end of World War two? 227 00:11:53,040 --> 00:11:53,760 Speaker 6: Is that changed? 228 00:11:53,840 --> 00:11:54,520 Speaker 5: Is that done? 229 00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:54,840 Speaker 2: Is that. 230 00:11:56,320 --> 00:11:59,600 Speaker 5: Is that framework no longer in place? Do you think, well, you. 231 00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:03,040 Speaker 3: Know, our friends and analyies in Europe, in the Middle East, 232 00:12:03,679 --> 00:12:08,920 Speaker 3: in Asia are unhappy because US is behaving like a bully. 233 00:12:09,840 --> 00:12:12,160 Speaker 3: But in NATO is still there. We're going to find 234 00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:15,679 Speaker 3: deals on trade and other things. And think about the Europeans. 235 00:12:16,320 --> 00:12:18,840 Speaker 3: Do they really want to use the fence tag of 236 00:12:18,960 --> 00:12:23,360 Speaker 3: China and ai of China and being the Chinese orbit 237 00:12:23,480 --> 00:12:26,280 Speaker 3: of course not so they have no option, and they 238 00:12:26,400 --> 00:12:29,480 Speaker 3: have to essentially spend more on the fence, be part 239 00:12:29,520 --> 00:12:33,920 Speaker 3: of NATO, buy even more American weapons, and there are 240 00:12:33,960 --> 00:12:35,959 Speaker 3: going to be two technological stacks are going to be 241 00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:39,120 Speaker 3: completely the risk because there's the AUS stack and a 242 00:12:39,240 --> 00:12:41,640 Speaker 3: Chinese stack. And if you are friends alive the US, 243 00:12:41,679 --> 00:12:45,000 Speaker 3: they owned to be subject to the spying and being 244 00:12:45,840 --> 00:12:49,360 Speaker 3: within the firewall of China. So you have Europe and 245 00:12:49,400 --> 00:12:51,360 Speaker 3: friends and analyies have no choice. They have to go with 246 00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:54,319 Speaker 3: our technology. We are the fens, we are on system, 247 00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:57,319 Speaker 3: we are economic channels. They'll do some trade with China, 248 00:12:57,520 --> 00:13:00,640 Speaker 3: but not stuff that is really sensitive an option by 249 00:13:00,640 --> 00:13:01,480 Speaker 3: going with the US. 250 00:13:01,600 --> 00:13:04,480 Speaker 2: Nora Robini and Richard Clarita have sat in this chair 251 00:13:04,520 --> 00:13:07,680 Speaker 2: and opposing sat in the chair and others to discuss 252 00:13:07,720 --> 00:13:11,080 Speaker 2: the next chairman of the FED. Are you comfortable with 253 00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:14,480 Speaker 2: mister warsh Are you particularly comfortable with him? That he 254 00:13:14,559 --> 00:13:18,559 Speaker 2: doesn't have the academics say of Richard Clareda, he wouldn't 255 00:13:18,559 --> 00:13:21,280 Speaker 2: know DSGE theory over the head. 256 00:13:21,720 --> 00:13:23,720 Speaker 6: And that doesn't bother me as much. 257 00:13:23,760 --> 00:13:26,920 Speaker 3: And he wasn't a FED before, and even power has 258 00:13:26,960 --> 00:13:29,920 Speaker 3: done well while being a lawyer. I'm more concerned about 259 00:13:29,960 --> 00:13:33,760 Speaker 3: these views. The view that you can, because of AI, 260 00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:37,240 Speaker 3: reduce the FED funds. It is wrong because even if 261 00:13:37,280 --> 00:13:41,640 Speaker 3: AI will eventually reduce inflation, is going to increase potential growth. 262 00:13:41,679 --> 00:13:46,000 Speaker 3: So the equilibrium real our star is higher, while the 263 00:13:46,040 --> 00:13:48,520 Speaker 3: nominal because of the inflation, could be lower, and it's 264 00:13:48,559 --> 00:13:50,520 Speaker 3: going to be a wash between the two. So on 265 00:13:50,520 --> 00:13:53,920 Speaker 3: one side, the real growth implies high real rates. On 266 00:13:53,960 --> 00:13:57,280 Speaker 3: the other side, lower inflation implies lower nominal and it's 267 00:13:57,280 --> 00:13:59,760 Speaker 3: a wash between the two. So that doesn't justify a 268 00:13:59,800 --> 00:14:00,880 Speaker 3: lot fund puce. 269 00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:03,760 Speaker 2: You included the dynamics here while I asked him, do 270 00:14:03,840 --> 00:14:06,600 Speaker 2: we need too our stars because we got an American 271 00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:09,880 Speaker 2: and Oriel flat in their back, there's not part of 272 00:14:09,960 --> 00:14:14,800 Speaker 2: this AI productivity experiment. Are we living to our stars 273 00:14:14,880 --> 00:14:15,360 Speaker 2: right now? 274 00:14:15,520 --> 00:14:17,960 Speaker 3: Well, we live in what everybody refers to as a 275 00:14:18,120 --> 00:14:22,000 Speaker 3: case shaped economy. The top ten tenty percent is doing 276 00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:25,960 Speaker 3: very well, the bottom fifty percent struggles from paycheck to paycheck. 277 00:14:26,000 --> 00:14:28,160 Speaker 3: Even if you were at full employment, at least people 278 00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:32,160 Speaker 3: have jobs. But even if you were to cut policy 279 00:14:32,280 --> 00:14:35,000 Speaker 3: rate in an economy is near full employment, they're going 280 00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:37,680 Speaker 3: to fuel on inflation. And if it's just going to 281 00:14:37,760 --> 00:14:41,080 Speaker 3: hoard more the working class than otherwise, so the solution 282 00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:43,840 Speaker 3: is not going to be reducing the policy rate. If 283 00:14:43,880 --> 00:14:46,440 Speaker 3: you're worried about inequality, you have to do stuff like 284 00:14:46,640 --> 00:14:49,920 Speaker 3: providing educational skills and retraining and all the things we're 285 00:14:49,960 --> 00:14:52,120 Speaker 3: not doing to make sure that those were left behind 286 00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:53,720 Speaker 3: are not left the mind. It's not the job of 287 00:14:53,760 --> 00:14:54,840 Speaker 3: monetary body. 288 00:14:54,560 --> 00:14:57,440 Speaker 2: Your PhD advisor just say exit the book. Fifteen years 289 00:14:57,480 --> 00:15:01,200 Speaker 2: ago folks predicting all of this educational failure in America. 290 00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:03,840 Speaker 2: I get twenty seconds. When's the next Rubini book? 291 00:15:05,280 --> 00:15:08,560 Speaker 3: I usually write one every decade. The Crisis Economics was 292 00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:12,160 Speaker 3: two thousand and ten, Mega Thread was twenty and twenty two. 293 00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:15,040 Speaker 3: So maybe something on AI and how the world is 294 00:15:15,040 --> 00:15:17,280 Speaker 3: going to change, but it's going to be by the 295 00:15:17,360 --> 00:15:19,280 Speaker 3: end of the decade, not anytime soon. 296 00:15:19,520 --> 00:15:21,640 Speaker 2: Do Thank you so much for joining us today, norm 297 00:15:21,760 --> 00:15:25,320 Speaker 2: Ubini at our world headquarters here in New York City. 298 00:15:25,560 --> 00:15:27,880 Speaker 2: Before you look for this across all of our digital 299 00:15:28,480 --> 00:15:35,360 Speaker 2: effort as well, stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance 300 00:15:35,400 --> 00:15:36,760 Speaker 2: coming up after this. 301 00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:47,560 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live 302 00:15:47,640 --> 00:15:50,840 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 303 00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:54,560 Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 304 00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:56,600 Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube brought. 305 00:15:56,440 --> 00:16:00,760 Speaker 2: Us bombshow midnight, I'd say maybe two am, where the 306 00:16:00,760 --> 00:16:06,480 Speaker 2: Financial Times suggests I read the article carefully, suggests is 307 00:16:06,520 --> 00:16:10,040 Speaker 2: the right word, suggests that Christine Leguard could leave. He 308 00:16:10,120 --> 00:16:12,440 Speaker 2: said of the ECB on the short list here after 309 00:16:12,520 --> 00:16:16,840 Speaker 2: Deutsenberg Treche, after all of them. Rebecca Patterson on the 310 00:16:16,920 --> 00:16:20,080 Speaker 2: shortlist to take over the ECB and joins us this morning. 311 00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:22,800 Speaker 2: She's with a consul and for relations. 312 00:16:22,960 --> 00:16:23,400 Speaker 6: Rebecca. 313 00:16:23,520 --> 00:16:26,960 Speaker 2: Is the ECB a young bank or they got enough 314 00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:29,960 Speaker 2: history behind him now where there's sort of a suggested 315 00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:32,720 Speaker 2: institutional path if someone leaves. 316 00:16:34,640 --> 00:16:35,840 Speaker 7: Good morning, both of you. 317 00:16:36,360 --> 00:16:39,400 Speaker 8: I think that the ECB has a pretty good institutional 318 00:16:39,440 --> 00:16:42,920 Speaker 8: framework set up now. But it is striking that you're 319 00:16:42,920 --> 00:16:45,600 Speaker 8: seeing both the Bank of France, the National Central Bank 320 00:16:45,600 --> 00:16:50,920 Speaker 8: and now possibly the ECB applying politics to the timing 321 00:16:51,040 --> 00:16:54,240 Speaker 8: of when they replace leaders. This is not something we've 322 00:16:54,240 --> 00:16:57,000 Speaker 8: ever seen before in modern history, at least in Europe, 323 00:16:57,440 --> 00:16:59,920 Speaker 8: and it's a little reminiscent of some of the pressure 324 00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:03,160 Speaker 8: we're seeing in the US. Right politics are making a 325 00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:04,640 Speaker 8: bigger impression on everything. 326 00:17:04,880 --> 00:17:09,000 Speaker 2: Maybe to editorialize, it's the autocrats, those conservative like medical 327 00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:11,800 Speaker 2: pen and others saying we're not going to play by 328 00:17:11,840 --> 00:17:15,800 Speaker 2: the rule book. What do you see after Trump, will 329 00:17:15,840 --> 00:17:19,040 Speaker 2: we return to the monetary rule book? 330 00:17:20,040 --> 00:17:22,720 Speaker 8: That well, I think we're still on the monetary rule 331 00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:25,160 Speaker 8: book in the US, regardless of some of the rhetoric 332 00:17:25,200 --> 00:17:28,760 Speaker 8: we hear from the administration. You know, the question to 333 00:17:28,840 --> 00:17:31,240 Speaker 8: me is broader than that. It's kind of what does 334 00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:34,439 Speaker 8: the world look like in three three and a half years, 335 00:17:34,960 --> 00:17:37,240 Speaker 8: What do we want to go back to, what can 336 00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:41,159 Speaker 8: we afford to go back to, and what maybe we 337 00:17:41,200 --> 00:17:43,360 Speaker 8: didn't like how it happened, but what do we think 338 00:17:43,400 --> 00:17:46,120 Speaker 8: actually might be better in three three and a half 339 00:17:46,200 --> 00:17:48,400 Speaker 8: years that we want to keep. You know, I do 340 00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:51,600 Speaker 8: think people on both sides of the aisle would argue 341 00:17:51,960 --> 00:17:54,280 Speaker 8: that the government in the United States could be smaller 342 00:17:54,320 --> 00:17:56,680 Speaker 8: and more effective and use technology better. 343 00:17:56,920 --> 00:17:58,040 Speaker 7: No one's going to argue with that. 344 00:17:58,080 --> 00:18:00,280 Speaker 8: There might be lots of people though, who say, you know, 345 00:18:00,560 --> 00:18:04,520 Speaker 8: USAID was a great soft power tool and it saved lives, 346 00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:06,280 Speaker 8: and maybe we need to figure out how to spend 347 00:18:06,280 --> 00:18:08,200 Speaker 8: for that. So I think it's going to be really 348 00:18:08,280 --> 00:18:12,840 Speaker 8: interesting in the next administration to see where we go. 349 00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:14,359 Speaker 7: The one thing that won't go back. 350 00:18:14,640 --> 00:18:19,280 Speaker 8: Is all the institutional knowledge from long serving technocrats and 351 00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:22,440 Speaker 8: government who either have retired or have been forced out. 352 00:18:23,040 --> 00:18:23,840 Speaker 7: We've lost that. 353 00:18:24,560 --> 00:18:26,880 Speaker 8: It doesn't mean there aren't some great people in government today, 354 00:18:26,920 --> 00:18:30,440 Speaker 8: of course there are, but we have hollowed out some 355 00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:33,320 Speaker 8: of the institutional knowledge in the government, which just means 356 00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:35,520 Speaker 8: it's going to slow things down a bit going forward. 357 00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:40,120 Speaker 8: And to me, that's not that's a you know, self goal, Rebecca, 358 00:18:40,119 --> 00:18:40,640 Speaker 8: how about. 359 00:18:40,760 --> 00:18:43,919 Speaker 2: Self goals soccer talk? Yes, I learned that I have 360 00:18:44,000 --> 00:18:47,399 Speaker 2: no idea what a self goal was until pharaoh lecture exactly. 361 00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:48,119 Speaker 6: Rebecca. 362 00:18:48,119 --> 00:18:50,680 Speaker 4: How about the US Federal Reserve chairman? Are we going 363 00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:52,480 Speaker 4: to get a new chairman here? I'm just not sure 364 00:18:52,480 --> 00:18:54,159 Speaker 4: how the process is going to play out. What are 365 00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:55,400 Speaker 4: you hearing in Washington? 366 00:18:56,000 --> 00:18:56,320 Speaker 7: Yeah? 367 00:18:56,359 --> 00:19:00,800 Speaker 8: So, Senator Tillis on the Banking Committee has been pretty 368 00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:03,879 Speaker 8: firm in his view that they need to resolve the 369 00:19:03,920 --> 00:19:07,800 Speaker 8: Department of Justice investigation into the FED and share Powell 370 00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:11,919 Speaker 8: before he will approve any nominations. Remember, the nominations have 371 00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:14,240 Speaker 8: to go through the Senate before someone can be seated, 372 00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:16,400 Speaker 8: and in theory, we need to get that done by 373 00:19:16,400 --> 00:19:19,840 Speaker 8: mid May. You also have some other things that need 374 00:19:19,880 --> 00:19:22,520 Speaker 8: to be resolved with the FED, whether that's Governor Lisa Cook, 375 00:19:23,520 --> 00:19:25,760 Speaker 8: is Stephen Myron going to stay in the seat or 376 00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:28,880 Speaker 8: change that was supposed to happen in January. Of course 377 00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:32,000 Speaker 8: nothing's happening since nothing can get through Senate. And then 378 00:19:32,119 --> 00:19:34,399 Speaker 8: raphae Albostik of the Atlanta Fed is going to be 379 00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:37,479 Speaker 8: stepping down soon and we'll need a replacement for him. 380 00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:38,640 Speaker 7: So there's gonna be a lot. 381 00:19:38,480 --> 00:19:41,520 Speaker 8: Of movement at the FED this year, and the closer 382 00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:43,919 Speaker 8: we get to May, the more the markets are going 383 00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:46,840 Speaker 8: to be grumpy about this. I have to assume that 384 00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:49,080 Speaker 8: they will figure out a path because in a midterm 385 00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:53,399 Speaker 8: election year, President Trump does not want to have market 386 00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:56,480 Speaker 8: volatility that he can avoid, So I have to think 387 00:19:56,520 --> 00:19:57,960 Speaker 8: this will get resolved in time. 388 00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:00,320 Speaker 2: Two questions quick here, Revecca. I know he's got to 389 00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:01,480 Speaker 2: go out to tittlebro. 390 00:20:03,520 --> 00:20:05,959 Speaker 7: I wish I wish Rebecca quickly. 391 00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:08,199 Speaker 2: On the dollar, do you see a resilient dollar or 392 00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:10,560 Speaker 2: does it finally give way to the dollar weakness Paul 393 00:20:10,600 --> 00:20:11,960 Speaker 2: Sweeney enjoyed last year. 394 00:20:12,960 --> 00:20:15,760 Speaker 8: I think we're going to have a weaker dollar again 395 00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:18,280 Speaker 8: this year, maybe not to the same degree as last year. 396 00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:21,280 Speaker 8: But what's interesting to me about what's pulling the dollar 397 00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:25,240 Speaker 8: a little bit. Is the flow right, we are seeing 398 00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:28,600 Speaker 8: more money leaving the United States, a continuation of what 399 00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:31,159 Speaker 8: we saw last year, money going into Europe, into Japan, 400 00:20:31,680 --> 00:20:36,240 Speaker 8: into emerging markets. Some of that is still relatively attractive valuation. 401 00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:40,280 Speaker 8: Some of it is fiscal stimulus in these countries making 402 00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:43,119 Speaker 8: them more interesting, and some of it is diversifying against 403 00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:45,560 Speaker 8: risk to the AI trade. But I think that capital 404 00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:48,080 Speaker 8: flow net leaving the US is going to keep a 405 00:20:48,119 --> 00:20:49,400 Speaker 8: lid on any dollar strength. 406 00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:53,119 Speaker 2: Help me here. I mean, it's like Nirvana the Spillover, 407 00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:59,119 Speaker 2: Rebecca Patterson, Sebastian Mallaby, it's a podcast. You got to 408 00:20:59,160 --> 00:20:59,920 Speaker 2: be kidneming, Rebec. 409 00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:04,920 Speaker 8: I'm I'm so excited about this, and I'm so grateful 410 00:21:04,920 --> 00:21:07,919 Speaker 8: to the Council on Foreign Relations for for giving us 411 00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:12,280 Speaker 8: that platform. Our next episode drops later today, and Sebastian 412 00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:15,440 Speaker 8: and I have a great guest, Eddie Fishman, who wrote 413 00:21:15,480 --> 00:21:18,080 Speaker 8: the New York Times bestseller Choke Points that came out 414 00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:21,520 Speaker 8: about a year or so ago. And we're talking about Europe. 415 00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:24,080 Speaker 8: You know, this is make or break for Europe right now. 416 00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:27,560 Speaker 8: If they want to sustain this equity rebound, they need 417 00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:30,320 Speaker 8: to actually show us, you know that they can walk 418 00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:33,600 Speaker 8: the talk, and the talk is simpler and less regulation, 419 00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:37,600 Speaker 8: deeper capital markets and a government that functions, which I 420 00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:39,880 Speaker 8: think is going to mean a multi speed Europe. 421 00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:41,520 Speaker 7: And I'll leave you guys with one thing. 422 00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:45,320 Speaker 8: Did you see the Belgian Prime minister's European comment? 423 00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:47,120 Speaker 7: This is classic? 424 00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:48,120 Speaker 2: Who are you talking? 425 00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:50,040 Speaker 6: Watch you do best ball? 426 00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:51,720 Speaker 7: Okay, all right, this is now. 427 00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:54,119 Speaker 8: This is going to be your cocktail party conversation for 428 00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:57,840 Speaker 8: the next week. So the Belgian prime minister thought someone 429 00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:02,439 Speaker 8: saying European union with a U said European onion with 430 00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:05,760 Speaker 8: an O, and so now he's calling. 431 00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:06,640 Speaker 7: It the European onion. 432 00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:08,919 Speaker 8: And the idea of a multi speed Europe is a 433 00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:11,840 Speaker 8: Europe that has layers, that has pieces. It's a hole, 434 00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:15,960 Speaker 8: but it's in pieces. And so that's that's my new thing. 435 00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:18,840 Speaker 8: It's the European onion, which is a good onion. It's 436 00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:19,600 Speaker 8: a Vidalia. 437 00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:23,040 Speaker 2: You know, this is a Paul the nirvana of doing 438 00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:26,280 Speaker 2: a panel with Tina Fordham and Rebecca Patterson. We could 439 00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:29,479 Speaker 2: take the back room at Saint Ambrosio's up on Madison Alue, 440 00:22:30,119 --> 00:22:33,800 Speaker 2: Sir Pastries. It'd be like nirvana. Rebecca Patterson. Let's do 441 00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:36,040 Speaker 2: it up to the Gulf Stream. Thank you so much, 442 00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:41,280 Speaker 2: you're Trooper for joining us before your flight. Stay with us. 443 00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:44,720 Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 444 00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:55,560 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live 445 00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:58,800 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 446 00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:02,280 Speaker 1: Apple Karplay and right OUTO with the Bloomberg Business app, 447 00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:04,200 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 448 00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:08,160 Speaker 2: Tina fordam in London, really visible out on LinkedIn. Can't 449 00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:10,720 Speaker 2: say enough about her work Atina, do you believe in 450 00:23:10,760 --> 00:23:13,720 Speaker 2: the European onion that you peel back the pieces, the 451 00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:17,600 Speaker 2: slices the onion in Brussels and there's something new there. 452 00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:22,840 Speaker 9: I love the idea and I loved hearing what Rebecca 453 00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:25,480 Speaker 9: had to say. Not sure I like onion only because 454 00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:28,199 Speaker 9: it sort of plays into French stereotype of you know, 455 00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:32,720 Speaker 9: carrying a string of onions tied together around a frenchman's neck. 456 00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:37,479 Speaker 10: But certainly multi speed. Yes, and that's probably inevitable, you know, 457 00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:43,639 Speaker 10: especially because the EUS is talking about offering membership to 458 00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:47,760 Speaker 10: Ukraine in the reverse order from the way it used 459 00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:51,480 Speaker 10: to be, so offer the membership, the accession in twenty 460 00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:53,240 Speaker 10: twenty seven, and then work backwards. 461 00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:56,360 Speaker 2: Tina, I look at the stock market now, Naszek one 462 00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:59,159 Speaker 2: hundred seven tenths of the percent. This is my moment 463 00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:02,560 Speaker 2: to get a brief from Tina Fordham Fordham Global Foresight 464 00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:07,520 Speaker 2: on Iran. We got a lot of hardware over there. 465 00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:11,080 Speaker 2: There's a couple maps out of the military. Should we 466 00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:14,919 Speaker 2: be getting ready for some late night action by the 467 00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:16,680 Speaker 2: White House against Iran? 468 00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:21,760 Speaker 10: Well, as you say, the military build up in the 469 00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:26,200 Speaker 10: Persian Gulf is tremendous, it's significant, and so the US 470 00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:32,560 Speaker 10: kind of brought back the naval assets that were off 471 00:24:32,600 --> 00:24:35,720 Speaker 10: the coast of Venezuela to the Persian Gulf. But for 472 00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:39,200 Speaker 10: what purpose? I mean, whether there is some type of 473 00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:45,800 Speaker 10: US military action in Iran is a plausible hypothetical, as 474 00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:49,000 Speaker 10: I like to say, even maybe a fifty percent likelihood. 475 00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:52,480 Speaker 10: But what I understand, and what I also know having 476 00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:55,400 Speaker 10: worked on some of these kinds of scenarios and wargaming 477 00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:59,160 Speaker 10: in the past, is there really aren't any clean kind 478 00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:03,800 Speaker 10: of surgic strike options for Iran, which is almost certainly 479 00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:08,400 Speaker 10: playing into the White House hesitation. You know, President Trump 480 00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:12,000 Speaker 10: has got that hardware there, those military assets there because 481 00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:16,879 Speaker 10: because maximum pressure is the name of the US approach 482 00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:20,560 Speaker 10: to Iran. I think the difficulty is that these guys 483 00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:23,199 Speaker 10: are tough, and they are patient, and they think in 484 00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:25,439 Speaker 10: terms of decades, and Trump gets bored. 485 00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:30,240 Speaker 4: So what should we be thinking about here, Tinazer relates 486 00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:32,440 Speaker 4: to Iran. We've had a lot of diplomacy over the 487 00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:35,680 Speaker 4: last several weeks and months. Here is this something that 488 00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:37,040 Speaker 4: President is really focused on? 489 00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:37,560 Speaker 2: Do you believe? 490 00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:42,879 Speaker 10: I think there was a moment after the Maduro extraction 491 00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:48,439 Speaker 10: operation and the pressure on Greenland where President Trump, you know, 492 00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:52,119 Speaker 10: really felt like his tactics were bringing about results. And 493 00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:55,080 Speaker 10: let's remember he thinks a lot about legacy, you know, 494 00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:58,800 Speaker 10: of course, the Nobel Peace Prize and ending conflicts while 495 00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:02,240 Speaker 10: getting rid of bad guys in Venezuela, in Cuba, maybe 496 00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:06,119 Speaker 10: in Iran is very tempting. It's just not going to 497 00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:10,199 Speaker 10: be that straightforward. So you know, my sense is that 498 00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:13,080 Speaker 10: perhaps to save face, there could be some type of intervention, 499 00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:16,920 Speaker 10: But the Mullows in Iran are very good at delaying 500 00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:21,320 Speaker 10: tactics and at changing, you know, moving the goalposts. Since 501 00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:23,760 Speaker 10: we're talking about soccer today. 502 00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:28,119 Speaker 4: Absolutely, so can you give us the latest here? Tina 503 00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:32,280 Speaker 4: on just kind of how Europe is viewing just general 504 00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:35,399 Speaker 4: diplomacy in Europe in the Middle East. 505 00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:36,800 Speaker 5: Does it have a role. 506 00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:40,480 Speaker 4: Or are is you're ceding everything to the US and 507 00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:42,040 Speaker 4: mister Trump at this point. 508 00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:47,760 Speaker 10: Well, Europe's main preoccupation when it comes to global diplomacy 509 00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:51,879 Speaker 10: is of course Russia and Ukraine and dealing with the 510 00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:55,160 Speaker 10: fact that the United States has, you know, has kind 511 00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:59,520 Speaker 10: of you know, moved the divorce proceedings forward, as we 512 00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:02,439 Speaker 10: saw at the Munich Security Conference this week, even with 513 00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:07,000 Speaker 10: Rubio's spoonful of sugar, it's all quite clear. So I 514 00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:09,240 Speaker 10: don't think Europe has much of a role to play 515 00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:11,680 Speaker 10: in the Middle East. It doesn't mean that it doesn't 516 00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:13,439 Speaker 10: want to be involved, and you see that at the 517 00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:17,280 Speaker 10: Board of Peace, the invitations and the fact that some 518 00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:20,960 Speaker 10: European countries will participate as observers, not paying that one 519 00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:22,400 Speaker 10: billion fee. 520 00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:26,119 Speaker 2: And Tina in the Zeitgeist this morning is in whatever 521 00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:30,640 Speaker 2: anybody's politics is, the president is chosen to have diplomacy 522 00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:35,960 Speaker 2: from two people with no international relations experience. Mister Whitcoff 523 00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:41,719 Speaker 2: and mister Kushner Fine discuss this reality of a shift 524 00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:47,520 Speaker 2: from typical diplomatic paths people that read Kissinger's diplomacy cover 525 00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:52,240 Speaker 2: to cover to an ad hoc approach by President Trump. 526 00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:57,800 Speaker 10: Well, there is an argument to be made for the 527 00:27:57,880 --> 00:28:02,720 Speaker 10: fact that the previous epoch of slow patient diplomacy actually 528 00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:06,639 Speaker 10: didn't get anywhere. And so, you know, I certainly was 529 00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:10,000 Speaker 10: open to the idea that people who maybe weren't burdened 530 00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:13,720 Speaker 10: by so much state craft in history could get somewhere. 531 00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:17,200 Speaker 10: But that's not transpiring. And what I fear is transpiring 532 00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:22,840 Speaker 10: is taking advantage of the knowledge gap. And also, let's 533 00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:27,199 Speaker 10: call it what it is, you know, diplomacy by commercial 534 00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:29,840 Speaker 10: deal making and what are we trading for that? 535 00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:33,440 Speaker 2: Okay, Tina, thank you so much. Look forward to seeing 536 00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:36,960 Speaker 2: you in New York in our studios. Tina Fordham Fordham 537 00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:42,680 Speaker 2: Global Foresight. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming 538 00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:43,760 Speaker 2: up after this. 539 00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:54,560 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live 540 00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:57,800 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 541 00:28:57,880 --> 00:29:01,240 Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Otto with the bloom Work Business up, 542 00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:03,200 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 543 00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:06,600 Speaker 2: This is a joy and exceptionally well timed. After our 544 00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:11,320 Speaker 2: Ben McMillan conversation with id x J. Timmins, as president's 545 00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:16,200 Speaker 2: CEO of the National Association Manufacturers. He's a lead pinata 546 00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:20,240 Speaker 2: out there getting beat up on a daily basis by politicians, 547 00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:23,880 Speaker 2: and we're thrilled the brave one could join us this morning. 548 00:29:24,760 --> 00:29:28,600 Speaker 2: I'm going to kill this chilicothe you got it, Ohio, yep, 549 00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:33,000 Speaker 2: you grew up there. It's surrounded by fourteen data centers 550 00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:35,760 Speaker 2: right now. What are the data centers going to do 551 00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:38,200 Speaker 2: to manufacturing in America? 552 00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:40,920 Speaker 11: I think they're going to help supercharge it. Tom to 553 00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:46,920 Speaker 11: be honest, Look, manufacturing is always in an evolution, right 554 00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:50,960 Speaker 11: For decades, we've evolved into different types of jobs requiring 555 00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:54,960 Speaker 11: different types of skills. And what we're seeing now, and 556 00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:57,320 Speaker 11: actually you and I have talked about this before. We 557 00:29:57,360 --> 00:29:59,560 Speaker 11: have four hundred and thirty three thousand open jobs in 558 00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:01,200 Speaker 11: the sector today. That number is going to grow to 559 00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:03,880 Speaker 11: two million by the year twenty thirty three. And then 560 00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:06,040 Speaker 11: reason it's going to grow is because we need people 561 00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:11,120 Speaker 11: with different skills to help us navigate this new technology evolution. 562 00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:13,960 Speaker 2: Give us an example of one skill there, well, you 563 00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:15,360 Speaker 2: got don't tell me wilders. 564 00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:18,720 Speaker 11: We know that welders and electricians, that's for sure, but 565 00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:25,280 Speaker 11: programmers for instance, right, people who can design the programs 566 00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:29,360 Speaker 11: to help automate certain functions within a facility, within a 567 00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:31,120 Speaker 11: within a manufacturing operation. 568 00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:32,720 Speaker 2: That's an example. 569 00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:38,040 Speaker 4: Basically some equidistance between Cincinnati and Columbus. 570 00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:41,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, there's like forty tryings there. 571 00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:44,240 Speaker 5: It's a triangle and Jay is our second. 572 00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:47,200 Speaker 2: It's too much State University. It's too much. 573 00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:49,000 Speaker 5: We're all Ohio today for some reason. 574 00:30:49,320 --> 00:30:52,160 Speaker 4: Talk to us about just the state of manufacturing in 575 00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:55,520 Speaker 4: this country as it relates to President Trump's effort to 576 00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:59,640 Speaker 4: reshure a lot of manufacturing and providing incentives for that. 577 00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:01,840 Speaker 4: We've seen a lot of non US companies make big 578 00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:05,080 Speaker 4: announcements about putting factories and so on in the US. 579 00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:05,840 Speaker 5: Are we seeing that. 580 00:31:06,320 --> 00:31:09,000 Speaker 11: Well, just like you're fortunate to have Ohio state folks 581 00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:12,520 Speaker 11: here on your show, manufacturing is really fortunate to have 582 00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:17,000 Speaker 11: good policies in place right now. Back in twenty seventeen, 583 00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:20,800 Speaker 11: when President Trump announced his tax tax plan in front 584 00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:22,640 Speaker 11: of our boarder directors, he said it would be rocket 585 00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:27,000 Speaker 11: fuel for the industry, and it actually was exactly that. 586 00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:28,080 Speaker 2: We created. 587 00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:31,320 Speaker 11: We had record job creation, record investment, record wage growth 588 00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:33,520 Speaker 11: for the next three years. There was a kind of 589 00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:36,320 Speaker 11: a pause earlier last year as people were waiting to see, 590 00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:39,280 Speaker 11: as manufacturers waiting to see are we going to renew 591 00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:43,400 Speaker 11: those tax reforms. And we did, and you're starting to 592 00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:45,240 Speaker 11: see a little bit more movement now in terms of 593 00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:49,400 Speaker 11: investment and job job creation. But we have some other challenges, 594 00:31:49,480 --> 00:31:52,480 Speaker 11: and you know those challenges are are the workforce issues 595 00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:55,040 Speaker 11: we just talked about. We need some more certainty in 596 00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:55,800 Speaker 11: the trade area. 597 00:31:56,400 --> 00:31:58,600 Speaker 2: Well that's where I wanted to go. Are we staying 598 00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:02,320 Speaker 2: in Ohio? Yeah, let's do Okay, Bonus, William McKinley did 599 00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:05,280 Speaker 2: not go to the Ohio state, he said, but if 600 00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:07,680 Speaker 2: you go from Columbus northeast up to Canton, that was 601 00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:11,280 Speaker 2: where McKinley was the president. Adores the Gilded Age and 602 00:32:11,400 --> 00:32:16,520 Speaker 2: all about McKinley protectionism as well. We're walking back tariffs 603 00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:20,959 Speaker 2: right now. What do you hear from your manufacturers that 604 00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:23,800 Speaker 2: they want it's not bananas from Brazil that we're not 605 00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:26,360 Speaker 2: going to grow here. How bad are they getting hammered? 606 00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:29,320 Speaker 11: Yeah, so that is a great question, Tom, And I 607 00:32:29,360 --> 00:32:32,520 Speaker 11: think what you hear mostly from manufacturers, and I say 608 00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:35,040 Speaker 11: you hear this from any business person, right is they 609 00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:39,000 Speaker 11: need predictability. They need to understand what the rules of 610 00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:42,280 Speaker 11: the road. Are we know that Donald Trump likes tariffs 611 00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:44,960 Speaker 11: to your point, whether we like them or not is 612 00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:48,240 Speaker 11: really irrelevant. We know he's going to impose tariffs in 613 00:32:48,360 --> 00:32:50,880 Speaker 11: every single trade deal that he negotiates or every single 614 00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:52,200 Speaker 11: trade action that he goes, but. 615 00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:54,680 Speaker 2: He's walking it back. Now, do you have some of them? 616 00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:55,680 Speaker 6: Do you have a year. 617 00:32:55,560 --> 00:32:59,360 Speaker 2: Head from all your contexts and with your public service J. Timmins, 618 00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:02,960 Speaker 2: do you have an an optimal tariff level for President 619 00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:05,880 Speaker 2: Trump that is as blended teriff? 620 00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:07,640 Speaker 11: Well, look, I mean you want to you want to 621 00:33:07,640 --> 00:33:10,400 Speaker 11: ask a manufacturer, and optimal tarot tariff level is zero 622 00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:13,040 Speaker 11: for zero, right, because we don't want to add cost 623 00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:15,800 Speaker 11: to to to doing business here in the United States. 624 00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:18,000 Speaker 11: We're going to be able to deal with whatever is 625 00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:20,280 Speaker 11: presented to us. It will have knock on effects, So 626 00:33:20,280 --> 00:33:21,760 Speaker 11: it will have knock on effects on. 627 00:33:21,720 --> 00:33:22,400 Speaker 2: Prices, right. 628 00:33:22,840 --> 00:33:27,240 Speaker 11: But the question is does it incentivize manufacturers to invest 629 00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:30,000 Speaker 11: in the United States? And I think that chapter is 630 00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:32,680 Speaker 11: yet to be written, and I think it's really important 631 00:33:32,720 --> 00:33:36,720 Speaker 11: when we're looking at USMCA to know that we have 632 00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:39,800 Speaker 11: a solid trade agreement here in the North American continent 633 00:33:39,840 --> 00:33:44,560 Speaker 11: that can incentivize more manufacturing here and disincentivize investment in 634 00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:46,160 Speaker 11: China and Southeast Asia. 635 00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:49,200 Speaker 4: Talk to us again, just going back to the labor aspect, 636 00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:53,560 Speaker 4: do we have enough skilled labor for the US manufacturing renaissance. 637 00:33:53,920 --> 00:33:57,400 Speaker 4: Do we need some type of different training schooling because 638 00:33:57,400 --> 00:34:00,000 Speaker 4: a lot of folks are saying, well, college is probably 639 00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:02,640 Speaker 4: not meant for a lot of people. It's so expensive 640 00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:05,960 Speaker 4: and it really isn't as needed. Maybe as we used 641 00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:09,560 Speaker 4: to think, maybe trade investments is a better investment in education. 642 00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:10,600 Speaker 5: How do you guys think of that? 643 00:34:10,680 --> 00:34:13,520 Speaker 11: We do not have enough in the labor force. Our 644 00:34:13,520 --> 00:34:16,400 Speaker 11: Manufacturing Institute, which is led by Carolyn Lee, it's president, 645 00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:19,640 Speaker 11: will tell you that every single month for the last 646 00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:23,279 Speaker 11: decade or more, we've had somewhere between three and five 647 00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:27,440 Speaker 11: hundred thousand open jobs in the sector. And part of that, frankly, 648 00:34:27,840 --> 00:34:32,680 Speaker 11: is having parents understand what great opportunities are available in 649 00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:35,480 Speaker 11: manufacturing and helping their kids understand that they can have 650 00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:38,600 Speaker 11: a path to success there. The other side of it 651 00:34:38,640 --> 00:34:42,480 Speaker 11: is those skills. You go back to AI, right, those 652 00:34:42,520 --> 00:34:46,399 Speaker 11: skills keep evolving and changing and we have to keep up. 653 00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:53,320 Speaker 11: Another issue, just very bluntly, is we need a solid, legal, 654 00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:59,319 Speaker 11: predictable immigration system in this country. We're working with Congresswoman 655 00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:02,399 Speaker 11: Maria sala Are on the Dignity Act to be able 656 00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:08,040 Speaker 11: to create a pathway citizen for legalization for immigrants who 657 00:35:08,040 --> 00:35:10,680 Speaker 11: are focused on the economic needs of this country, and 658 00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:12,279 Speaker 11: that will go a long way to help us as well. 659 00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:16,000 Speaker 2: The reality and J. Timmins, Folks with his president CEO 660 00:35:16,000 --> 00:35:19,920 Speaker 2: of National Association Manufacturer, is just one of the straightest 661 00:35:19,960 --> 00:35:23,640 Speaker 2: talkers about the headaches out there. Chilli Cothee. Did I 662 00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:26,480 Speaker 2: pronounce it right? You got it? Nailed it, Chilli cothe 663 00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:29,640 Speaker 2: The one hundred and seventy eight year old paper mill 664 00:35:29,840 --> 00:35:34,280 Speaker 2: just shut down. That's the arch fear of eighty percent 665 00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:38,959 Speaker 2: of our audience. Some in AI, the tech bro out 666 00:35:39,000 --> 00:35:42,960 Speaker 2: in Silicon Valley, the fancy people in three zip codes. 667 00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:46,880 Speaker 2: I saw you on Maria earlier. Today, Maria Me, Paul 668 00:35:46,920 --> 00:35:53,120 Speaker 2: Sweeney and others synthesize the angst that I get in 669 00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:56,799 Speaker 2: my mail every single day. In that paper mill where you. 670 00:35:56,719 --> 00:35:59,120 Speaker 11: Grew up, Can I just say what a gut punch 671 00:35:59,160 --> 00:36:02,880 Speaker 11: that was for me. My grandfather actually worked there. That 672 00:36:03,000 --> 00:36:06,040 Speaker 11: was how my family entered the middle class because he 673 00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:08,000 Speaker 11: came from a farm. He started working at a mead 674 00:36:08,040 --> 00:36:12,080 Speaker 11: paper mill back then. That was honestly, that was devastating 675 00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:13,960 Speaker 11: to me, and it was devastating to so many family 676 00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:17,280 Speaker 11: and friends that I have back in Chillicothy and Ross County. 677 00:36:18,239 --> 00:36:23,160 Speaker 11: The good news was somewhat good news is you had 678 00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:25,560 Speaker 11: a full effort to try to find somebody to take 679 00:36:25,560 --> 00:36:28,759 Speaker 11: over that facility. Senator Bernie Moreno is a hero to 680 00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:32,440 Speaker 11: me because he was relentless on trying to recruit somebody 681 00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:35,799 Speaker 11: else to come in. A glove manufacturer came in. Does 682 00:36:35,920 --> 00:36:39,040 Speaker 11: not have as many employees as the paper mill did, 683 00:36:39,800 --> 00:36:41,040 Speaker 11: but it is something. 684 00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:43,080 Speaker 2: Okay, So you're having a beer with President Trump. It 685 00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:45,000 Speaker 2: doesn't have a beer. That would be President Obama. You're 686 00:36:45,040 --> 00:36:48,279 Speaker 2: at the White House, Jay Timmons, and you are visceral 687 00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:51,239 Speaker 2: about this. Frankly like me in the collapse, he's been 688 00:36:51,320 --> 00:36:54,640 Speaker 2: Kodak Company. You're visceral about this. In mead paper of 689 00:36:54,719 --> 00:36:58,919 Speaker 2: years ago, what's your advice to the president to jumpstart 690 00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:01,319 Speaker 2: and persist labor in America? 691 00:37:01,880 --> 00:37:06,320 Speaker 11: So, first and foremost, I give them a huge amount 692 00:37:06,320 --> 00:37:08,920 Speaker 11: of credit again on the tax policies, because that matters. 693 00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:12,000 Speaker 11: That allows businesses to not only invest in new plants 694 00:37:12,040 --> 00:37:14,319 Speaker 11: and equipment, it also allows them to invest in their 695 00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:18,160 Speaker 11: people and train their people to upskill and future proof 696 00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:21,920 Speaker 11: the jobs that are available in manufacturing. You know, I 697 00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:25,360 Speaker 11: could probably go on for hours about me or the 698 00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:28,080 Speaker 11: paper mill back in Chilicothe and what they should or 699 00:37:28,080 --> 00:37:30,440 Speaker 11: shouldn't have done over the course of decades to modernize 700 00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:33,520 Speaker 11: that plant. I think most folks there knew that it 701 00:37:33,960 --> 00:37:36,680 Speaker 11: had a time limit on its ability to continue to 702 00:37:37,120 --> 00:37:40,640 Speaker 11: produce without massive infusions of cash. And you're not going 703 00:37:40,719 --> 00:37:42,319 Speaker 11: to get that from the federal government, right, That's not 704 00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:45,800 Speaker 11: going to happen. So what I think is really important 705 00:37:45,840 --> 00:37:48,160 Speaker 11: is that we don't lead the people who lost those 706 00:37:48,280 --> 00:37:52,520 Speaker 11: jobs behind, and that that involves training. There's a lot 707 00:37:52,520 --> 00:37:54,640 Speaker 11: of great grants that come from the Department of Labor 708 00:37:54,719 --> 00:37:58,200 Speaker 11: or the Department of Education as it once existed, sometimes 709 00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:02,200 Speaker 11: the Department of Commerce through the state and Governor DeWine, 710 00:38:02,239 --> 00:38:05,160 Speaker 11: I think actually probably better than most governors, is really 711 00:38:05,200 --> 00:38:08,239 Speaker 11: focused on getting that money down to communities to help 712 00:38:08,280 --> 00:38:09,680 Speaker 11: train workers with new skills. 713 00:38:10,080 --> 00:38:11,040 Speaker 5: Chillicothee, Ohio. 714 00:38:11,080 --> 00:38:13,000 Speaker 4: Tom, next time we go there, we're going to the 715 00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:14,879 Speaker 4: seven Miles Smokehouse. 716 00:38:14,960 --> 00:38:16,680 Speaker 2: Looks really good there. 717 00:38:17,600 --> 00:38:20,719 Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm down with that kind of stuff. So, Jay, 718 00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:25,000 Speaker 5: where's a real area for growth in manufacturing in the US. Here, 719 00:38:25,000 --> 00:38:26,040 Speaker 5: if you're a young. 720 00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:29,239 Speaker 4: Person coming out and maybe thinking about a trade, what 721 00:38:29,320 --> 00:38:30,400 Speaker 4: would you suggest it. 722 00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:32,879 Speaker 11: Well, obviously, if you look at all the numbers, it's 723 00:38:32,920 --> 00:38:36,160 Speaker 11: going to be in data centers and AI. But that's 724 00:38:36,160 --> 00:38:37,799 Speaker 11: not where I would tell folks to go. I would 725 00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:40,759 Speaker 11: tell them to look at traditional manufacturing because what we're 726 00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:44,919 Speaker 11: seeing is we're seeing this pent up optimism and enthusiasm 727 00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:49,520 Speaker 11: for investing more in manufacturing, whether their appliances or cars, 728 00:38:49,680 --> 00:38:55,640 Speaker 11: or household house slide items or even textiles. Here in 729 00:38:55,680 --> 00:38:58,479 Speaker 11: the United States, you're seeing so many more investments now 730 00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:04,440 Speaker 11: in all of those sectors. Defense is another area, aircraft. 731 00:39:05,480 --> 00:39:10,040 Speaker 11: Many of those areas are really desperate, quite frankly for 732 00:39:10,640 --> 00:39:13,600 Speaker 11: skilled labor. By the way, these jobs, this is the 733 00:39:13,680 --> 00:39:17,120 Speaker 11: thing that I think is always a surprise to most folks. 734 00:39:17,560 --> 00:39:20,480 Speaker 11: Jobs in manufacturing pay more than on average, more than 735 00:39:20,480 --> 00:39:24,360 Speaker 11: any other sector of the economy. So you're going into 736 00:39:24,400 --> 00:39:26,319 Speaker 11: a position that is going to pay you well, it's 737 00:39:26,320 --> 00:39:29,000 Speaker 11: going to allow you to have a house and build 738 00:39:29,000 --> 00:39:29,560 Speaker 11: your family. 739 00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:31,960 Speaker 2: It's good stuff. We're out of time. But first of all, 740 00:39:32,040 --> 00:39:35,279 Speaker 2: I totally agree with you on the manufacturing multiplier. Been 741 00:39:35,320 --> 00:39:38,400 Speaker 2: criticized by many guests for that, but it's for you 742 00:39:38,440 --> 00:39:41,600 Speaker 2: and me. It's hardwired, it's everything we grew up. You 743 00:39:41,640 --> 00:39:44,160 Speaker 2: are right, I mean I might be right. I've been 744 00:39:44,200 --> 00:39:47,600 Speaker 2: built many times. I'm wrong. Ja Timmins of Ohio, thank 745 00:39:47,640 --> 00:39:50,680 Speaker 2: you so much, President, Chief Executive Officer of the National 746 00:39:50,680 --> 00:39:53,000 Speaker 2: Association of Manufacturers. 747 00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:58,200 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 748 00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:02,600 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 749 00:40:02,719 --> 00:40:06,200 Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the 750 00:40:06,280 --> 00:40:10,279 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You 751 00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:13,680 Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and 752 00:40:13,880 --> 00:40:15,640 Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal