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Speaker 2: We're gonna pause here with Steven Anglan Dirt and we
Speaker 2: could do this with standard Charter Bank.
Speaker 3: And just look at the larger view, Paul.
Speaker 2: I'm going to go to seventy thousand feet on this.
Speaker 2: On the dollar, the single number on my screen which
Speaker 2: screams flight to quality is a DXY of ninety nine
Speaker 2: yen back to a one fifty nine handle. Just a
Speaker 2: remarkably resilient dollar. Steven England, There's been a student of
Speaker 2: this since time began. Are you shocked at the resiliency
Speaker 2: of the dollar.
Speaker 4: We're not shocked, because we've been dollar bulls in a
Speaker 4: market that's overwhelming the dollar negative, but you know, you're
Speaker 4: always a little bit surprised at the timing. What seems
Speaker 4: to have happened is a combination of US interest rates
Speaker 4: finally going up, reflecting some positives in the sense of
Speaker 4: US economic growth and earnings resiliency and you know, as
Speaker 4: well as some negatives, which is the inflation picture.
Speaker 5: But the market is responding.
Speaker 2: Explain us right now. I got to get the academics
Speaker 2: in what's great there? And I think if John Ryden
Speaker 2: iconic and Bear sterns with Breen as well is Paul
Speaker 2: In every dynamic there's an ambiguity. This word ambiguous. So
Speaker 2: if a dollar goes up, everybody's like gloom boom boom.
Speaker 2: But in a second order condition, it's about economic might,
Speaker 2: isn't it.
Speaker 4: Yeah, the causality is always important. And you know, if
Speaker 4: dollars going up for some arbitrary reason, yeah, it's not competitive.
Speaker 3: But if every quarter.
Speaker 4: You're always surprised at how resilient earnings are and how
Speaker 4: they surprise to the upside, and you're surprised at productivity
Speaker 4: growth and how strong it is, that tells you something
Speaker 4: about the return to capital. And that's why money keeps
Speaker 4: flowing into the US that you know, the risk adjusted
Speaker 4: return to capital estimates seem to be, you know, keep
Speaker 4: going up, and that attracts capital globally in a world
Speaker 4: that's slowing down.
Speaker 6: We have a new chairman of the US Federal Reserve.
Speaker 5: What's he going to do.
Speaker 6: I mean, presumably he's got some pressure to cut race,
Speaker 6: but the data doesn't really support that at all.
Speaker 4: You know, we just put out a piece today and
Speaker 4: adjusting that question, and the title was he won't cut
Speaker 4: but hook cap of it that you know, and we
Speaker 4: say out theright that if it was say a yelling
Speaker 4: or a bernanky, you know, we'd probably have rate hikes
Speaker 4: in our foretest. As it is, we're flat because the
Speaker 4: chair does have a certain amount of power, and unless
Speaker 4: things really fall apart on the inflation side, he can
Speaker 4: certainly delay hikes for for a period of time.
Speaker 6: So how pronounced is your concern about inflation here? How
Speaker 6: do you think about that?
Speaker 4: You know, your kid has a ninety nine and a
Speaker 4: half degree you know temperature, yep, and you think it's
Speaker 4: going up a little bit, but you know you don't
Speaker 4: see any sign that's going to one o five. So
Speaker 4: you start to say, yeah, I got to watch this
Speaker 4: and make sure that you know it's it stays kind
Speaker 4: of at these levels. And you know, we're not a
Speaker 4: defcom one on inflation. It's higher than it we want
Speaker 4: it to be, and the best indications are that it's
Speaker 4: sort of going up very slowly. Plus he is right
Speaker 4: that the productivity story puts downward pressure on unit labor costs.
Speaker 4: So it's not like everything is falling apart. There's sort
Speaker 4: of there's concern, but not despair.
Speaker 3: Stephen Engelder.
Speaker 2: Where this is Standard Charter Bank, all of their heritage
Speaker 2: of the Pacific RIM and around India as well, it's
Speaker 2: off your remit, but I got.
Speaker 3: To go there.
Speaker 2: Given your team at Standard Charter Bank, is there a
Speaker 2: tradable currency opportunity given the the difficult energy template for
Speaker 2: the Pacific RIM and around India, is there an opportunity?
Speaker 4: Well, some of it's already priced in, and you know
Speaker 4: that's the part of the world that's been hit the
Speaker 4: worst that the you know, energy prices. Most of that
Speaker 4: region doesn't have energy. China is a bit aside because
Speaker 4: of the huge stocks of that it has on the
Speaker 4: energy side. But if you're looking at places like India,
Speaker 4: it's a real problem. And we've seen the currency adjust downward.
Speaker 6: Where's value out there in the currency markets today?
Speaker 4: Do you think you know, I think that there's always
Speaker 4: a problem and that I can say that I think
Speaker 4: the dollar is value and that you know it's going
Speaker 4: to go up, and that you know our our forecast
Speaker 4: for the euros one twelve a year out, but there's
Speaker 4: a lot of in betweens where you kind of say,
Speaker 4: is this the right timing to go long dollars short euros?
Speaker 4: Could something happen And that's always the art of trading
Speaker 4: to get the timing right.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for coming in today and really
Speaker 2: really appreciate it. With the standard Charter Bank, Steven Englander
Speaker 2: with us is well, stay with us. More from Bloomberg
Speaker 2: Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live
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Speaker 2: YouTube to start a three hour conversation with Paul Sankie.
Speaker 2: He's founder Sankie Research, absolutely definitive in his independence within
Speaker 2: the petroleum analysis of the world. So I see Ed
Speaker 2: Morris out doing all sorts of stuff. He's like holding
Speaker 2: you sixty nine years old curries out doing microeconomics out
Speaker 2: of Chicago, price theory and a price oil away from
Speaker 2: the headlines in the zeitgeist that we're living every day.
Speaker 2: What is your curiosity right now? What is the odd
Speaker 2: thing you're studying?
Speaker 5: Well, we got into group three base oils. Do you
Speaker 5: know about that?
Speaker 3: Please help me? Or is that like?
Speaker 5: No, it's very striking. Last week this is quite a
Speaker 5: big deal. Actually, last week Walmart and Costco warned that
Speaker 5: they didn't have enough base oils to put on their shelves.
Speaker 5: You know, the stuff you put in your engine was
Speaker 5: running out. And the reason for that is basically, we're
Speaker 5: heavily dependent on bas oil from hor Moose. So it's
Speaker 5: a very interesting end of the chain story. And this
Speaker 5: is not you know, some deli down the road. This
Speaker 5: is Walmart, Costco, Toyota, Xon, then warm Day don't have
Speaker 5: enough motor oil. It's a physical shortage here in the
Speaker 5: US right now. And I thought that was pretty fascinating.
Speaker 2: The physical shortages in the Pacific room as well. Francisco
Speaker 2: Blanche was in saying by Foreign Way, the Pacific rim
Speaker 2: Indo Pacific is affected.
Speaker 5: Yes, absolutely, but I think compared to where we were
Speaker 5: when this started. We immediately looked at Australia and it's
Speaker 5: interesting that Australian inventories are actually higher now than they
Speaker 5: were when we started this crisis. So there is crisis
Speaker 5: management being successfully employed, and I think you can see
Speaker 5: that around the world. I've just been in Mexico. All
Speaker 5: the planes are flying, the place is basically booming and
Speaker 5: going into the World Cup. And the joke that I
Speaker 5: had in my research this weekend is that the moors
Speaker 5: are all buzzing, and these are high end moors. They're
Speaker 5: all buzzing with kids buying Mexican World Cup tops, you know,
Speaker 5: because the Mexicans always have the best strips. The other
Speaker 5: name for that is Asian Petrochemicals, so you know there
Speaker 5: is a petrochemical major issue that's about to emerge through
Speaker 5: the chain as well. You've shut down, you know, forty
Speaker 5: percent of Asian petrochemical capacity.
Speaker 6: So the straight upward moves, I mean, I'm speaking for
Speaker 6: most of our listeners and viewers here. We couldn't find
Speaker 6: that on a map before. Now we all know about it.
Speaker 6: Is it ever going to go back to where it
Speaker 6: was January?
Speaker 5: No? No, But you know what's happening today is a
Speaker 5: couple of tankers have bussed, so you're going to see
Speaker 5: you know, the oil industry will work out a way
Speaker 5: to smuggle. You can be sure of that. And I
Speaker 5: think that the US announcement that they would kind of
Speaker 5: they would allow Russia and oil sales tells you that
Speaker 5: there's going to be you know, that kind of a
Speaker 5: move where they probably you U U turn and start
Speaker 5: turning a blind eye to the Iranians moving stuff. And
Speaker 5: that would come out of the China meetings. The other
Speaker 5: huge thing, by the way, which is huge, is after
Speaker 5: China Trump you obviously saw China putin. Yeah, you know
Speaker 5: that's a big deal in oil, believe me.
Speaker 6: So how if we're twenty percent of our oil and
Speaker 6: gas comes out of that part of the world. Did
Speaker 6: they just build more pipelines? But pipelines are also susceptible
Speaker 6: to stuff. I mean, what do we do in the
Speaker 6: straighter removes? Are you got to open that thing up,
Speaker 6: don't you?
Speaker 5: Well, I think we've characterized this is an incredible time
Speaker 5: where it's OVAX versus u at VAX. So it's the
Speaker 5: the US potential, you know, the US Treasury's global power
Speaker 5: against drones, and drones have totally change the shipping you know,
Speaker 5: entire future. It's just changed pipelines. You have two hundred
Speaker 5: and fifty thousand miles of pipelines in North America. You
Speaker 5: have forty thousand in the Middle East, so pipelines are
Speaker 5: totally a solution. And it's just that, you know, tank
Speaker 5: has never had a problem previously and so you didn't
Speaker 5: worry about it. And actually it's the Hooties that showed
Speaker 5: you know. That's what was so scary to me when
Speaker 5: the straight shutdown is, by the way, we haven't opened
Speaker 5: the suits canal properly and it's been three years, Is
Speaker 5: that right? Yeah? No, no, no, the suits canal throughput volumes
Speaker 5: are fifty percent of where they were before the Hootie
Speaker 5: shut up.
Speaker 2: I got a different question, but let me get to
Speaker 2: it then, right now, what's your gallon?
Speaker 3: A guess? Guess?
Speaker 5: Yeah?
Speaker 3: Out a year? I mean, are getting used to five
Speaker 3: dollars a gallon?
Speaker 5: You know Midwestralia always want me on when the gas
Speaker 5: price goes crazy. So I go on those shows and
Speaker 5: I told them the other day you're going to six.
Speaker 5: I don't think there's any doubt about six dollars a
Speaker 5: gallon here this summer because we're just going into some
Speaker 5: And now you'll get big data from the DOE today.
Speaker 5: Last night, the API data had one huge number in it,
Speaker 5: which was ten million drawer in the SPR. So you're
Speaker 5: running the sa PR and over obviously over a million
Speaker 5: in a week. Yeah, a day, you know what I mean.
Speaker 5: So you're going you're gonna run into a question. With
Speaker 5: three hundred and ninety million barrels in the SPR, You're
Speaker 5: going to run into a question. Now do you just
Speaker 5: keep allowing that to come into the market? And it's material,
Speaker 5: So there's a lot of inventory days coming.
Speaker 2: Up, Alexa, Should I ask about the wah Wah or
Speaker 2: the caspianc which one?
Speaker 6: Oh I go ibolt wah Wah?
Speaker 3: Whoa, Okay, lit'sten to geal?
Speaker 2: I guess you're telling me John Tucker at the wah
Speaker 2: Wah is going to be six bucks a gallon?
Speaker 5: Well, because that's nationwide average, so that would be like
Speaker 5: eight nine in California. Yeah, so I'm talking nationwide average soon.
Speaker 3: I looked at Berlin the other day. They're going to
Speaker 3: go to eleven or twelve bucks ago.
Speaker 5: Yeah they will. Oh yeah, No, I don't have any
Speaker 5: doubt about that. And what's happening is that because the
Speaker 5: refiners are really pushing hard to make jet feel so
Speaker 5: fascinating thing here is our jet field inventries are record high.
Speaker 5: Absolutely fascinating because they're training to do that. They're going
Speaker 5: to make less gasoline into driving season. And the other
Speaker 5: thing you got to watch I was talking about base
Speaker 5: all is Alki, which gives you octane is short in California.
Speaker 5: So they can't make great They can't make the fancy stuff. No,
Speaker 5: they can't get the stuck.
Speaker 2: Okay, you know Paul and I say risk, folks, Well
Speaker 2: we're done with the show. Paul comes off at twelve
Speaker 2: noon and we're usually playing a board game of risk.
Speaker 2: I would guess one hundred and five of one hundred
Speaker 2: Americans don't know where the Caspian Sea is. I would say,
Speaker 2: right now, it's fascinating that transport, that dynamic you're encyclopedic
Speaker 2: on something like Baku to this pipeline or that. Tell
Speaker 2: us give me a forty second, one minute critique here
Speaker 2: of how we should look at the Caspian Sea.
Speaker 5: Well, I think the difference between playing a board game
Speaker 5: and going to the Caspian I've been to Tangies, where
Speaker 5: the huge Chevron project is a million barrel to day
Speaker 5: giant reef that was discovered from space by the cosmic Soviets.
Speaker 5: It's so huge the tide there is eight miles bailey.
Speaker 5: That's how flat, and you know how far the water
Speaker 5: moves and how difficult it is to develop oil there.
Speaker 5: But the generally speaking, yeah, the Casipian has a unique
Speaker 5: position as well because Kazakhstan is sat right between Russia,
Speaker 5: China and the US with Chevron and now Ukraine and
Speaker 5: the drones. So it's a fascinating and huge potential. Yeah.
Speaker 5: I mean there's a lot of non opec oil that's
Speaker 5: going to be developed here, no doubt, because.
Speaker 3: Excuse me, I'm so lined up. I forgot my micage.
Speaker 2: I'm thinking about John Ducker.
Speaker 3: In six bucks again.
Speaker 2: So to Paul's question about the Hormuz, is what's really
Speaker 2: going to happen here?
Speaker 3: Is all this nan opek is going to come on?
Speaker 5: Oh? No question, Yeah, over time. I mean, you know
Speaker 5: one country I'm very interested right now is Argentina going
Speaker 5: to grow massively. Brazil has huge incremental sales to China
Speaker 5: of oil, and of course Venezuela hopefully will boom. You know,
Speaker 5: Venezuela can easily suppli.
Speaker 3: Dormose doesn't matter. Yeah, I'm not there yet.
Speaker 6: I mean, Paul, your energy guys supply demand you get that.
Speaker 6: If I'm a politician, I can't allow six dollars. I
Speaker 6: guess that can't happen.
Speaker 5: No, that's right, and that's going to be very interesting.
Speaker 5: And so my notes on Sunday was called watching the
Speaker 5: frog boil with that blinking, and that I think is
Speaker 5: the outlet. I think that's what will trigger a crisis.
Speaker 5: Response is actually going to be the US gasoline price.
Speaker 5: When it comes down to it, You've got the nasdak
Speaker 5: at a record high. Everything seems fine, The Knicks are
Speaker 5: on a great you know, Nicks have got a great crumback.
Speaker 5: The world is not just simply not ending in the
Speaker 5: United States, and I think that's affecting the president's sense
Speaker 5: of the crisis. But you know, as oil analyst, we've
Speaker 5: almost gone quiet because we were screaming so much six
Speaker 5: weeks ago. It's continued to progress on the exactly the
Speaker 5: screaming bath and you'll see it in the DOE data today,
Speaker 5: you know, big draws. Eventually, you'll get to a point
Speaker 5: where the US has to compete with international exports sales.
Speaker 5: So the export sales are going to start fighting our
Speaker 5: domestic on price, and that's going to make US domestic
Speaker 5: prices go vertical, especially as we don't really know where
Speaker 5: operational limits are. So there's a point in inventory where
Speaker 5: you can't run the system, and we're going to hit
Speaker 5: that and that's when prices go nuts, and we haven't
Speaker 5: hit it yet.
Speaker 2: Interesting, you lead a romantic life. It's like out of
Speaker 2: the Price by Daniel Jurgen. Where are you going next?
Speaker 2: Give me some romantic.
Speaker 5: Look, did you know? Sure? Shakdemption one of the great
Speaker 5: Wall Street films, and they dream of going to Ziwata
Speaker 5: Nejo in the Pacific is where they want to escape to,
Speaker 5: and in fact do escape to. And that's where I'm
Speaker 5: going next June the eleventh to watch the World Cup.
Speaker 5: I got my Mexican shirts ready to go, and yeah,
Speaker 5: I'm really looking forward to that, really looking forward to
Speaker 5: the World Cup. I mean, I'm.
Speaker 3: America can pull off the World Cup.
Speaker 5: You know, you always back the hosts, So I love here,
Speaker 5: you know, and traditionally do awfully. Obviously Mexico, US Canada.
Speaker 5: I really think you typically you do, and it's a
Speaker 5: traditional way of looking at You always get a run,
Speaker 5: you know, of the host nations. And so we'll see
Speaker 5: Mexico's got a tough group, and they don't have that
Speaker 5: much talent. I don't understand why the US is one
Speaker 5: of the greatest of.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, thank you, thank you so much, legendary. I
Speaker 2: know he SANKI at Research. We'll have them back soon.
Speaker 2: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on
Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or
Speaker 1: watch US live on YouTube.
Speaker 3: We start strong here.
Speaker 2: He's a wonderful perspective out of me and Andrea Suderman
Speaker 2: has always given his great perspective with Vauntable, chairman of
Speaker 2: their board of directors, and of course venerated across finance
Speaker 2: in Europe as well. Just what's the mood into the
Speaker 2: summer in Europe? I mean, I know everyone takes a
Speaker 2: month of August off onlike the ugly Americans, but just
Speaker 2: what is the continental zeitgeist right now?
Speaker 7: Well, listen, thanks for having me on. By the way,
Speaker 7: Tom Paul's great to be on the side, guys, is
Speaker 7: really one of questioning, you know, well, what's going to
Speaker 7: happen politically in Europe. There are a lot of elections
Speaker 7: coming up that look a bit dicey, and we saw
Speaker 7: hungry swing in the pro European camp. But there's a
Speaker 7: lot of concern about France, about Germany going forward.
Speaker 8: The UK.
Speaker 7: People are concerned about competitiveness with the United States, they're
Speaker 7: concerned about the trade war, They're concerned about their auto industry.
Speaker 7: So there is a lot of questioning, well, let's.
Speaker 2: Go there, because you've got some visceral knowledge, and is
Speaker 2: the auto is manufacturing done in Germany? Is it so
Speaker 2: messed up, particularly with the China manufacturing at any price,
Speaker 2: that the Germany under threat of losing that iconic image.
Speaker 7: Now I understand the question. I think it's it's a
Speaker 7: relevant question, but I don't think I think it's way
Speaker 7: too early to say Germany is done. We've seen waves
Speaker 7: of competitiveness in the past. If you recall, you know,
Speaker 7: the Japanese auto manufacturers getting into Europe in the seventies.
Speaker 7: Initial response by the Europeans was again import restrictions, tariff.
Speaker 7: As a matter of fact, people don't remember that, but
Speaker 7: they sort of adapted and survived. There is a renaissance
Speaker 7: of the defense industry. As everybody knows, some of these
Speaker 7: car plants, idle car plants are being repurposed to grow
Speaker 7: the defense industry in Europe. So yeah, I think it's
Speaker 7: too early to say, but certainly a lot of work
Speaker 7: ahead for the Europeans, in particular the Germans.
Speaker 6: Talk to us just about how Europe thinks about their
Speaker 6: energy dependence or their energy policy, energy strategy, because first
Speaker 6: you had the Ukraine War and the challenges with Russia
Speaker 6: and that supply, now you've got the Mid East. How
Speaker 6: was Europe thinking about its energy policy.
Speaker 7: Well, it's certainly thinking it needs to be more independent,
Speaker 7: though I think the market's making too much of the dependency.
Speaker 7: If you recall, I think we even talked about this
Speaker 7: last time I was on the show in March in
Speaker 7: four years ago. When the Ukraine War broke, everybody's saying that,
Speaker 7: you know, the Germans wouldn't be able to heat their
Speaker 7: houses in the following winter, and nothing like that happens.
Speaker 7: So I think the Europeans are quite adaptable. I think
Speaker 7: it's going to push them more towards renewables, but certainly
Speaker 7: also and that's an increasing discussion, certainly more towards going
Speaker 7: back to some form of nuclear as well to ensure
Speaker 7: the baseload of the grid.
Speaker 6: What's your view or what's the view of Vontanamo about
Speaker 6: global markets here today? Where do you want to be
Speaker 6: given some of the geopolitical risk? Are you thinking geographically?
Speaker 8: US?
Speaker 6: Non US, Europe?
Speaker 5: Asia?
Speaker 6: How do you think about just the geographics about I.
Speaker 7: Think overall emerging markets look attractive. I think fixed income
Speaker 7: looks attractive. The risk to to to to the capital
Speaker 7: that you invest in fixed income with yields being much
Speaker 7: higher than there were four or five years ago, even
Speaker 7: if rates continued to back up, it's fairly low. So
Speaker 7: the rolldown will make that good very quickly. So I
Speaker 7: think fixed income security is certainly attractive. I also think,
Speaker 7: funnily enough, that equity markets are quite reasonably prior for
Speaker 7: the majority of them. I mean this, You've said this
Speaker 7: on this program, that the rally has been very very narrow,
Speaker 7: and a lot of stocks, a lot of sectors that
Speaker 7: consumer durables, you know, are actually modesty valued.
Speaker 2: Right, you areas qualified as anybody I know to take
Speaker 2: this train of thought. I hope, I hope you're Can
Speaker 2: you see Andreas Uderman having to deal with compliance?
Speaker 6: Oh?
Speaker 2: Yeah, James Diamond wants to come into Europe with a
Speaker 2: digital banking model. Is it a threat to the European
Speaker 2: complex of the financial system? How do they adapt to
Speaker 2: the idea that JP Morgan wants to come over to Europe.
Speaker 7: I don't think that's that's a concern for anybody. By
Speaker 7: the way, I do deal with compliance a lot increasingly,
Speaker 7: I meant a huge concern also, particularly for front Tobl.
Speaker 7: I mean front Tobos has a very large US person's
Speaker 7: client base, and as you know, that's a pretty tricky
Speaker 7: thing to deal with. No, but I think I think
Speaker 7: the real threat or the real risk to the European
Speaker 7: banking see the competitive threat comes from the revolutes. Then
Speaker 7: twenty fours. These are proper indigenous native digital startups and
Speaker 7: I think they can do most things better than even
Speaker 7: the mighty JP Morgan.
Speaker 3: See how he did that? He dodged some questions like.
Speaker 2: It's skilled to say, why did you save the interview exactly?
Speaker 6: How do you How do the investors in Europe think
Speaker 6: about AI and how big of it is here? It
Speaker 6: just seems to be everywhere, and that's all people want
Speaker 6: to talk about. What's what's you from Europe? When you're
Speaker 6: talking to investors.
Speaker 7: I think I think it's a concern for for a
Speaker 7: lot of people. Similarly to the United States. I think
Speaker 7: people in Europe particularly are concerned about the job market, employment,
Speaker 7: what it means for graduates, what it means for the
Speaker 7: education system.
Speaker 5: Do we need to retool the education system?
Speaker 7: Do we need to shift more towards vocational training, which
Speaker 7: is perhaps slightly less by a I. I think the
Speaker 7: investors buy and large, the private investors that invest in
Speaker 7: our certificates and our struct solutions, they do pretty much
Speaker 7: the same thing as in the US. They go for
Speaker 7: these these big and videos.
Speaker 5: And so on of the stock market.
Speaker 6: Should I put some money on Belgium in the World Cup?
Speaker 7: Certainly a dark horse, A dark horse dark horse as always, okay, I.
Speaker 6: Mean, I gotta you never I'm always looking at these guys.
Speaker 6: They could always pop out it. It's always like, you know,
Speaker 6: you think about Holland as well. That part of the
Speaker 6: world produces some soccer players that I don't know where
Speaker 6: they come totally.
Speaker 7: And remember we arsenally asked me about that last time
Speaker 7: in March won the League of twenty Year for the
Speaker 7: first time.
Speaker 5: There you go, I'm.
Speaker 3: Looking like we gotta go. We gotta go here.
Speaker 2: But Andreas group g Belgium, Egypt, Iran, Iran's gonna have
Speaker 2: a team New Zealand. I mean basically, I like Belgium.
Speaker 3: Is Egypt like a threat to Belgium.
Speaker 7: No, I think I think Belgium will go through the
Speaker 7: first round.
Speaker 6: Yeah, for sure, that's my sleep.
Speaker 2: Do you sense any enthusiasm in America for the World Cup?
Speaker 7: This is a nobody not age issue. I haven't heard anybody.
Speaker 7: You are the first one to ask you and on
Speaker 7: us solo, to ask me about the world The.
Speaker 6: Final is gonna take across take place just across the
Speaker 6: river there in the swamps of Jersey.
Speaker 7: If you ask the man on the street or the
Speaker 7: woman on the street, probably wouldn't even know it takes place,
Speaker 7: right Yeah, it's.
Speaker 2: A big worry right now, you know, I mean, our
Speaker 2: Jersey's our World Cup correspondent.
Speaker 3: We have to see. We got to run. Andrea's thank you.
Speaker 2: So much for joining us, having us here. Andreas Uderman,
Speaker 2: you're the chairman and a great student of what's going.
Speaker 3: On in Europe.
Speaker 2: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch US live
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on
Speaker 1: Apple Karplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app,
Speaker 1: or watch US live on.
Speaker 2: YouTube with US Now to get our Nvidia coverage started.
Speaker 3: We wanted to start strong. What matters is not only.
Speaker 2: The Berkeley parchment and onto Chicago, but he spent a
Speaker 2: decade in China. There's no substitute for that experience.
Speaker 3: Jake Goldberg joins us.
Speaker 2: On in video this morning. What did you make of
Speaker 2: Jensen's soiree in China? The most important image of the
Speaker 2: entire trip was Jensen eating noodles in some noodle shop
Speaker 2: in Beijing, Jay, What'd you make of that?
Speaker 5: So?
Speaker 8: I gotta admit Jensen, Jensen's in a tough spot. He
Speaker 8: has to walk this very fine balancing line between being
Speaker 8: a good US CEO running a US company and China,
Speaker 8: which is a big market, and he's of course bicultural.
Speaker 8: I actually think this is this is not the first
Speaker 8: time he's been photographed on the street in Asia, in
Speaker 8: China going to some small restaurant. This is actually pretty
Speaker 8: normal for him. He's very very adept at playing the
Speaker 8: press in and that sort of hometown local feel is
Speaker 8: I think part of his messaging. I think he also
Speaker 8: likes good food, so that doesn't hurt.
Speaker 6: What's the streat going to be looking for with Nvidia's
Speaker 6: earnings tonight? I mean, you know, three years ago this
Speaker 6: in Nvidia shocked the world with their big revenue guidance upside,
Speaker 6: which really crystallized the AI story for a lot of investors.
Speaker 6: What are investors looking for now?
Speaker 8: I think the main thing we're gonna be looking for
Speaker 8: is the the impact of the Vera Ruben upgrade to
Speaker 8: their numbers. They have a new every year, they have
Speaker 8: a new generation of chips, and this one is called
Speaker 8: Vera Rubin and it's rolling into numbers now, and we're
Speaker 8: gonna be looking for how big that impact is and
Speaker 8: and how you know how big how much upside there
Speaker 8: there could be to numbers.
Speaker 3: Jay, you look.
Speaker 2: At a n R on the screen, and boy, I'll
Speaker 2: tell you, Jacobberg, you're a lonely voice you gotta sell
Speaker 2: on in Nvidia? Do you maintain that now? And what
Speaker 2: do you need need to capitulate and go long at
Speaker 2: four twenty this afternoon.
Speaker 8: So just I've always thought of this as an underperformed.
Speaker 8: I've never told anyone that's short in video. I've always
Speaker 8: told my clients like, yeah, to be careful. But I think,
Speaker 8: but the way our rating structure works is we don't
Speaker 8: have underperformed. We have buy and sell. And I think
Speaker 8: that that thesis has played out. It is underperformed pretty
Speaker 8: much since I launched coverage last year. If you look
Speaker 8: at look at it versus most of the rest of
Speaker 8: the semiconductor complex, it's underperformed. You know, the SMAGTF, it's
Speaker 8: underperformed certainly this year, is underperformed pretty much all the
Speaker 8: major large gap semis. And there's like, just to be clear,
Speaker 8: I think in video is a good is a good company,
Speaker 8: Like they have good products. I think highly of Jensen,
Speaker 8: but they've just gotten so big it's hard for them
Speaker 8: to excite expectations the way they used to.
Speaker 6: Where is the competitive threat for a company of the
Speaker 6: size of.
Speaker 8: In video everywhere?
Speaker 5: Yeh?
Speaker 8: Everywhere?
Speaker 6: Now, So what are the names that you look at
Speaker 6: as real competitors doing video right now?
Speaker 8: So, right now, the biggest competitor is Google's TPU, which
Speaker 8: is produced in large part through Broadcom. Right anytime in
Speaker 8: video losers share today, it's to someone making chip with Broadcom.
Speaker 8: But then that's just the start coming on stream. We
Speaker 8: have AMD is looking really really good with their four
Speaker 8: fifty series which is rolling out later this year, and
Speaker 8: their numbers next year. Sarah Bros. And then all the
Speaker 8: hyperscalers are making their own chips as well.
Speaker 2: Right Jam, before you go, You've done four thousand, three
Speaker 2: hundred roadshow lunches doing IPOs. No one's ad more rubber
Speaker 2: Chicken than Jay Goldberg. The IPOs that are coming you've
Speaker 2: never seen. I've never seen, Paul Sweeney's never seen. Are
Speaker 2: these items sellable? How do you do SpaceX I p
Speaker 2: O of that magnitude?
Speaker 8: That's a that's a very good question. I think there
Speaker 8: is a lot of enthusiasm for tech right now. I
Speaker 8: mean I think that goes without saying so I think
Speaker 8: they're they're you know, Elon and his complex always attract
Speaker 8: enthusiastic followers. I think the demand story for the the
Speaker 8: ai I pos that could be coming later this year,
Speaker 8: like Anthropic and Open AI, those will be those will
Speaker 8: have some incredible revenue numbers and some incredible operating losses.
Speaker 8: That will be wild to see those numbers. So I
Speaker 8: think people just I think that's the big The big
Speaker 8: story in you know, certainly in tech and probably across
Speaker 8: the broader economy is the re of the Paul get one.
Speaker 3: We're in here, Jaye.
Speaker 6: What did you make of the IPO of Cerebras last week?
Speaker 6: Just a massive, massive I PO huge uh price above
Speaker 6: the h you know, the trade above the IPO price.
Speaker 8: Yeah, that's one more in video competitor out there. I think,
Speaker 8: you know, I think the story this year is for inference,
Speaker 8: which is like getting AI to actually do useful things
Speaker 8: for people. There's in very very tight supply. There's not
Speaker 8: enough of it, and so everybody who does that for
Speaker 8: a living is scrambling to get supply. And Sarah Buss
Speaker 8: came out right at the right time.
Speaker 2: Jay, Don't be a stranger. Love to have you on again,
Speaker 2: legendary Jay Goldberg. Where this is seedport.
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