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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's down to place

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Speaker 1: your bets. It is me, Joey P Joe Pisapia and

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Speaker 1: this is VP NFL joining me every single Tuesday is

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Speaker 1: my man, the data scientist, Sam Hoppin. We're going to

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Speaker 1: take a look at the lines that might move, the

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Speaker 1: stats that are going to make a difference, and give

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Speaker 1: you a pick to survive in all of your pools.

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Speaker 1: But before we get to all of that breaking news

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Speaker 1: earlier this morning, Sam Hoppin, I will say that Andrew

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Speaker 1: Erics and I did predict this. Joe Stredamas was working

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Speaker 1: yesterday and again it did take a genius to figure

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Speaker 1: out that the Bears are going to make a change somewhere,

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Speaker 1: and they did. Offensive coordinator Shane waldron out, So what

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Speaker 1: does this mean now when they get rid of the

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Speaker 1: OC here for this Bears offense? Do you see any

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Speaker 1: turnaround possible from some of the data that you've seen

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Speaker 1: of some of the things they've done, and what do

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Speaker 1: you think that new Bears offense might look like?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I honestly don't know that this changes the outlook

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Speaker 2: for the Bears that much. I mean, they need to

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Speaker 2: radically shift what they're doing on offense from what they

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Speaker 2: have been doing. I am, by no means a scheme expert.

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Speaker 2: I know the new offensive coordinator is going to be

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Speaker 2: calling place Thomas Brown. He was under Sean mcvagh for

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Speaker 2: a couple of years, but also was with the Panthers

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Speaker 2: last year who had one of the worst offensive lines

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Speaker 2: excuse me offenses and offensive lines, and so if you're

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Speaker 2: trying to draw inspiration from that as a Bears fan,

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Speaker 2: I don't have many great words for you. But again,

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Speaker 2: it's one of those things where it had to something

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Speaker 2: had to change, and it did. I still think until

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Speaker 2: they make a change at the top with Eberflus, that

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Speaker 2: this Bears team is going to struggle, and they have one,

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Speaker 2: I think, the most difficult strength of schedule the rest

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Speaker 2: of the way. We talked about that last week. They

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Speaker 2: still have all of their division games against the Vikings, Packers,

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Speaker 2: and Lions first starting this week against Green Bay, so

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Speaker 2: it's gonna be tough sledding for them. The rest of the.

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Speaker 1: Way, certainly is I already locked in the Green Bay

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Speaker 1: number earlier yesterday, so everybody knows what I think of

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Speaker 1: that game. And if you want to go check out

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Speaker 1: that look ahead, go back and watch it on our

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Speaker 1: YouTube or listen to wherever we get your pods and

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Speaker 1: don't forget. Also, we've got a giveaway too before we

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Speaker 1: start getting into the meat and potatoes of the show.

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Speaker 1: The signed Mike Evans Buccaneer helmet can be yours again

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Speaker 1: free courtesy of our friends at Pristine Auction dot com.

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Speaker 1: All you need to do is said to Bettingpros dot

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Speaker 1: com slash contest, complete the form and either download the

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Speaker 1: and we'll be announcing the winner right here on the channel.

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Speaker 1: So subscribe to Betting Pro's YouTube and ring the bell

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Speaker 1: for notification so you never missed an episode and you

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Speaker 1: can claim your prize of the Mike Evans signed Buccaneers helmet.

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Speaker 1: He hasn't used it in a couple weeks, so we

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Speaker 1: decided to just give it away. All right, Let's get

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Speaker 1: to some of the lines that we're keeping a close

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Speaker 1: eye on. Let's start with the forty nine Ers and Seahawks.

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Speaker 1: The forty nine Ers, Sam did get CMC back, We

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Speaker 1: saw a little Ricky Pierce all action. We saw a

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Speaker 1: really good game from Brock Party, and this feels like

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Speaker 1: another game potentially for Brock Party to go over some

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Speaker 1: of those passing totals. That was one of my favorite

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Speaker 1: props last week. I logged it in Betting Pros for

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Speaker 1: people to see and going forward this week too, I

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Speaker 1: think a lot of questions are hovering too about the

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Speaker 1: health of DK Metcalf and basically what you saw last week,

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Speaker 1: how much can we apply to potentially what is going

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Speaker 1: to unfold in this contest in week eleven.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so no, obviously no major quarterback injuries here, but

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Speaker 2: there are a ton of health question marks for Seattle.

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Speaker 2: On offense, you mentioned DK Metcalf, It sounds like McDonald

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Speaker 2: is optimistic that he'll be able to play on Sunday,

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Speaker 2: but I think still needs to get through practices this week.

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Speaker 2: On offense at tight end as well, he missed their

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Speaker 2: game prior to their by and then on the offensive line,

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Speaker 2: both Abe Lucas and George Fant are currently questionable, So

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Speaker 2: that's four key players again in two sort of different batches,

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Speaker 2: one on the offensive line and one at sort of

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Speaker 2: the playmaker position, where if you know, two of Abe

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Speaker 2: Lucas and Fan don't play, or both Metcalffin and Noah

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Speaker 2: Fant don't play, then there's a scenario where I think

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Speaker 2: this I don't know if it's enough to cross the sevens.

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Speaker 2: San Francisco currently six and a half point favorites, that's

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Speaker 2: about where it opened. There were some sevens in some places,

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Speaker 2: but those injuries, I think metcalf and the offensive line

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Speaker 2: injuries are obviously the most impactful. But the last time

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Speaker 2: we saw these two teams play San Francisco Blue the

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Speaker 2: doors off of Seattle, but that was what felt like

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Speaker 2: months ago, they the forty nine ers effectively replace Brandon

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Speaker 2: with Christian McCaffrey, you know, not one for one, but

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Speaker 2: they had you get that game. Now have McCaffrey in

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Speaker 2: this game, and so there's a little bit of shifting

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Speaker 2: going on there. Again. You mentioned Ricky Peter Saw who

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Speaker 2: is has come out pretty well in the last couple

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Speaker 2: of games. So I honestly don't know if this line

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Speaker 2: shifts that much. I think if anything, money comes in

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Speaker 2: on the Seattle side, and there's some market resistance at

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Speaker 2: the seven point spread for Seattle.

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Speaker 1: I'm actually comfortable at home with the forty nine ers

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Speaker 1: of the six and a half. My only caveat to

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Speaker 1: that is some of the things I saw in that

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Speaker 1: kicking game last week too, that were you know, those

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Speaker 1: are the kind of things that creep up on you

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Speaker 1: when guys aren't making kicks or all of a sudden,

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Speaker 1: you know, that's how those points start to dissipate, and

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Speaker 1: that's when you start getting into tighter games and you

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Speaker 1: want to be in. That's the only thing that gives

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Speaker 1: me pause. But I think I'm just going to is

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Speaker 1: Terrell likes to say around here, just kind of close

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Speaker 1: my eyes and bet it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, That's where I'm at. Niners red zone efficiency has

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Speaker 2: been not great by any stretch of the imagination, and

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Speaker 2: Kyle Shanahan has always been one to be comfortable taking vehicles.

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Speaker 2: And who knows if if that change. You know, last

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Speaker 2: week's results and the poor kicking changes things for Shanahan,

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Speaker 2: But that is something to keep an eye on. Potentially

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Speaker 2: a live betting angle if the forty nine ers are

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Speaker 2: continuing to get into the red zone against Seattle, but

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Speaker 2: not finishing drives, you know, potentially hoping that Seattle, excuse me,

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Speaker 2: San Francisco can convert on some of those drives and

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Speaker 2: taking them live against the spread.

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Speaker 1: We got some big games on the slate, including Bill's Chiefs,

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Speaker 1: which are going to get to a little later, but

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Speaker 1: before we do, we're going to talk about the Steelers

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Speaker 1: and Ravens. Now, this is one typically we talked about

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Speaker 1: this again yesterday, Andrew and I usually looking for the

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Speaker 1: under in this game, but this doesn't feel like, you know,

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Speaker 1: your father's Ravens Steelers suation here with the way that

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Speaker 1: raven secondary is played, the way Russell Wilson's starting to

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Speaker 1: throw the ball more effectively in a lot of chucking

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Speaker 1: and ducking going on there, I kind of like the

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Speaker 1: over here. And Andrew was very uncomfortable with that, and

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Speaker 1: I'm uncomfortable with it, But it just feels like that's

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Speaker 1: the state of these two teams. So how much does

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Speaker 1: history play into when you're looking ahead here and trying

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Speaker 1: to live in the now and place the wager in

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Speaker 1: week eleven?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so I guarantee there are going to be people

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Speaker 2: talking this week about the history between these two teams.

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Speaker 2: It's a classic AFC North battle in the middle of November.

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Speaker 2: It's always close and low scoring, but I don't think

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Speaker 2: that that matters. These are two different teams from what

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Speaker 2: we've seen in the past. Pittsburgh is getting probably some

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Speaker 2: of the best quarterback play they've gotten since Ben Roethlisberger retired.

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Speaker 2: The Baltimore defense is is not what it was. I've

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Speaker 2: talked at length about them in the past. This game

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Speaker 2: opened at a total of forty six and a half.

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Speaker 2: That's already been bet up to forty eight and a half,

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Speaker 2: past the soft key of forty eight. But Baltimore profiles

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Speaker 2: as an over team. Their offense is a jugg or not.

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Speaker 2: I don't think that really any defense is slowing them

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Speaker 2: down at this point, and their defense is a pass funnel.

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Speaker 2: What's nerve What has me nervous about betting the over

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Speaker 2: in this game is Pittsburgh's run heavy approach. They are

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Speaker 2: thirty first in pass right over expectation this season, and

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Speaker 2: Baltimore has a great run defense, one of the best

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Speaker 2: in the league. So if Pittsburgh is leaning into the

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Speaker 2: run early on, I don't know that they're going to

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Speaker 2: be able to sustain drives and that's going to kill

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Speaker 2: this this over. So I think if the line gets

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Speaker 2: back down under forty eight, then I think forty seven

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Speaker 2: and a half is probably a bypoint for me for

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Speaker 2: the over. But again, if we see Pittsburgh start to

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Speaker 2: lean in the past early on in this game, then

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Speaker 2: I think for sure this game goes over.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you mentioned the prolific offense of the Ravens. That's

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Speaker 1: just kind of where I'm living, and the angle of

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Speaker 1: Najie Harrison a little bit of a question too. I

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Speaker 1: wonder how much they can rely on that run game

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Speaker 1: necessarily for Pittsburgh. So you're right, the approaches definitely try

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Speaker 1: to keep Lamar Jackson off the field as much as

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Speaker 1: you can, But it just feels like in the second

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Speaker 1: half of this game, you might just get into one

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Speaker 1: of those dogfights, and that just seems like where the

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Speaker 1: Ravens have been living in some of these games when

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Speaker 1: they play better teams. Yeah, and we'll see again. History

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Speaker 1: is strong on the under on this one. But I

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Speaker 1: just can't seem to you know, I can't seem to

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Speaker 1: shake what I've seen so far in twenty twenty four. Also,

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Speaker 1: what I've seen in twenty twenty four are the Detroit

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Speaker 1: Lions kicking ass and taking names, and typically teams, you know,

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Speaker 1: especially when they win big games on the road or

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Speaker 1: you know, have emotional victories. There's alwasos letdown games, right,

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Speaker 1: And normally I would say this is the perfect letdown scenario,

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Speaker 1: except for the fact that Dan Campbell seems to never

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Speaker 1: take his foot off the gas with these guys. And

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Speaker 1: you know, you go back a couple of weeks in

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Speaker 1: that Titans game. Last time we saw a big double

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Speaker 1: digit spread for the Lions, right, they crushed it threefold,

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Speaker 1: so it wasn't even a contest. And I feel like

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Speaker 1: he's taking the concept of that trap game out of

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Speaker 1: the equation because he's such an intense coach and he's

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Speaker 1: got them so prepared, and there were a lot of

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Speaker 1: imperfections in that win. So I don't think it was

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Speaker 1: a win that despite the fact that they came out

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Speaker 1: with the victory at the last second on the field

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Speaker 1: goal and all that stuff. There's a lot I think

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Speaker 1: you take away and say, man, we need to do

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Speaker 1: a lot of things better in that game. So I

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Speaker 1: think that all works in their favor. And I don't

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Speaker 1: care if Lawrence plays. I don't care if it's Trevor

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Speaker 1: Lawrence playing quarterback. I don't care as Martin Lawrence or

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Speaker 1: Sarah Lawrence. I don't care who's playing quarterback. I don't

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Speaker 1: think the Jaguars can keep up with them. I think

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Speaker 1: this is actually a comfortable number. I've already bet it.

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Speaker 1: But Sam, what do you think about Lyons Jaguars? Do

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Speaker 1: you think if Lawrence does play, this one changes at all?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean if Lawrence does play, and I at

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Speaker 2: this point doubt he does. There were reports late last

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Speaker 2: week that there's a chance he just doesn't play the

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Speaker 2: rest of this sea. But if he does, he's still

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Speaker 2: a massive upgrade over mac Jones. We saw how poor

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Speaker 2: this offense was last week with mac Jones against the Vikings.

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Speaker 2: I think they if I remember correctly, they only had

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Speaker 2: like one hundred and fifty yards of offense. Like the

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Speaker 2: only reason that the Jaguars had any amount of success

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Speaker 2: was because they got the turnovers against Sam Darnold. So

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Speaker 2: I think again, if matc excuse me, if Trevor Lawrence plays,

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Speaker 2: this number probably gets close to closer to Detroit by

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Speaker 2: ten something like that. It's currently you can find twelve

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Speaker 2: and a half, thirteen, thirteen and a half out there

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Speaker 2: across the board. There's not a lot of market consensus

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Speaker 2: right now, but this line will certainly move if Trevor

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Speaker 2: Lawrence plays. I know that the Jaguars don't have a

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Speaker 2: lot going on for them right now, but it certainly

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Speaker 2: can't get worse.

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Speaker 1: With the Lizza Man even plays. I think, I mean,

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Speaker 1: that's great. Set the custom line alerts again. Download the

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Speaker 1: Betting Pros app. This is a great game to set

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Speaker 1: the line alerts for. Again. We could follow the certain

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Speaker 1: lines for the certain contests for the week. It's a

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Speaker 1: great addition on the app there if you haven't used it,

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Speaker 1: sink your sportsbooks for free. And also another thing you

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Speaker 1: can do there, don't forget about the Betting Pro Systems

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Speaker 1: also because the new Betting Pro Systems tool is designed

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Speaker 1: to help you find winning strategies. I don't know if

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Speaker 1: you saw this, Sam, there's a guy that created a

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Speaker 1: system for wide receivers and it's forty five and zero.

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Speaker 1: Mike Mayer tweeted it out the other day. I couldn't

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Speaker 1: believe it. So obviously there's people worth following and doing

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Speaker 1: some good work over on the Betting Pros side of things,

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Speaker 1: so you can customize your betting systems by sport, bet type,

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Speaker 1: and timeframe to make the best bet you possibly can

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Speaker 1: using real time data and expert analysis. So track the

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Speaker 1: performance of different betting systems over time and optimize your

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Speaker 1: bets to increase your chances of success. Again, download the

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Speaker 1: VP app today, use the systems, use the line alerts,

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Speaker 1: use all the tools to make you a smarter better

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Speaker 1: Let's take a look ato the future here for a moment.

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Speaker 1: Anything here that strikes your fancy that you think maybe

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Speaker 1: people should be looking at, maybe in the NFC trying

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Speaker 1: to scratch and claw the way of the playoffs, because

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Speaker 1: it does seem like it's the Lions and everybody else

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Speaker 1: right now.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So the NFC playoff picture is actually pretty interesting.

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Speaker 2: So looking at the current standings and where the team sit,

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Speaker 2: the number one and two seed are likely going to be,

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Speaker 2: you know, probably the Lions, and then whoever wins the

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Speaker 2: NFC East between the Eagles and Commanders, the three and

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Speaker 2: four seed going to be the NFC South winner and

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Speaker 2: the NFC West winner the fifth seed again, whoever loses

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Speaker 2: the NFC East between Washington and Philadelphia. The sixth seed

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Speaker 2: likely the Vikings at this point they are are seven

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Speaker 2: and two currently hold the five seed actually over the Commanders,

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Speaker 2: and then you get to the seventh seed and it's

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Speaker 2: a battle between teams like the pack the forty nine Ers,

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Speaker 2: the Rams. Even though they lost last night, the Seahawks

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Speaker 2: are not out of it. And then you also have

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Speaker 2: the Bucks, who are not totally dead to win the

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Speaker 2: NFC South. They're effectively three games back of the Falcons

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Speaker 2: because they lost both of their games against Atlanta and

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Speaker 2: have two more wins excuse me, two more losses than them.

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Speaker 2: But all of those teams are in contention right now

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Speaker 2: to still make the playoffs, so there's a lot left

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Speaker 2: to be decided. I hate to say this, but I

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Speaker 2: think the Packers are the best bet to not make

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Speaker 2: the playoffs right now. They're currently us to twenty five

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Speaker 2: not to make the playoffs. They are currently the number

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Speaker 2: seven seed at six and three. But there's a couple

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Speaker 2: of things. One, some of their wins are a little

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Speaker 2: bit fraudulent. They are getting They got really lucky early

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Speaker 2: on in the season with the number of turnovers they

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Speaker 2: were forcing and the lack of turnovers that they had

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Speaker 2: on offense. Two, Jordan Love has been banged up all

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Speaker 2: year and there is a definitely higher probability of him

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Speaker 2: reaggraating some sort of injury. And as well as Malik

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Speaker 2: Willis played earlier this season, he is certainly a downgrade

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Speaker 2: from Jordan Love. They also have the seventh most difficult

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Speaker 2: strength of schedule. The rest of the way, they have

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Speaker 2: games against the Vikings and the Lions. Again, that will

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Speaker 2: be no easy feats by any means. So again at

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Speaker 2: plus two twenty five for them not to make the playoffs,

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Speaker 2: I think, I just think there's a better chance that potentially,

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Speaker 2: like the forty nine Ers sneak into that seventh spot

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Speaker 2: or the Cardinals continue to play well. And again it

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Speaker 2: pains me to say that, but that's that's what.

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Speaker 1: I've been like right now, and that feels right to me.

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Speaker 1: I can also see the Vikings kind of falling apart

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Speaker 1: at the end with Darnold. I don't think that's out

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Speaker 1: of the rum up possibilities. And if you look at

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Speaker 1: you know, look, green Bay controls their own destiny. They're

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Speaker 1: going to Detroit, then they go to Minnesota, and they

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Speaker 1: obviously they have the Bear. So all these these are

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Speaker 1: the road games they have, and that two games with

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Speaker 1: the Bear So if you sweep both games with the

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Speaker 1: Bears and you split the Minnesota Detroit one, you got

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Speaker 1: a puncher's chance. Because there's also the theory we could

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Speaker 1: look at either the Eagles falling apart a little bit

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Speaker 1: if they don't play well, guests demanders or vice versa,

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Speaker 1: of the Commanders, maybe Cinderella starts to, you know, lose

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Speaker 1: the glass slipper here a little bit and start to

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Speaker 1: show really who they are, maybe underneath. So this is

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Speaker 1: a really pivotal week where I think Green Bay really

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Speaker 1: has to take care of his business and then we

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Speaker 1: might get a couple other answers on some things here,

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Speaker 1: at least temporarily. But that's that's definitely one to watch,

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Speaker 1: and I like that. See, even though Sam has this fandom,

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Speaker 1: my fandom, we're all business at betting pros. We put

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Speaker 1: that all aside. Man, this is all about making some money,

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Speaker 1: all right. Let's get to the stats. They are gonna

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Speaker 1: make us some money. Let's start with the Chargers and Bengals. Sam,

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Speaker 1: I hate this game because to me, this is one

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Speaker 1: of those true four outcome games where you could see

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Speaker 1: it going over, you could see it going under, you

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Speaker 1: could see either team winning I hate those games. I

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Speaker 1: typically don't invest in them. So that being said, what

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Speaker 1: do you have lined up to maybe convince me otherwise?

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Speaker 1: Because I'm actually really curious because I want to be

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Speaker 1: involved in this game, but my goodness, those four outcome situations,

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Speaker 1: I tend to run for the hills.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So I want to look at the Chargers defense specifically.

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Speaker 2: They are often considered a top five defense. They are

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Speaker 2: third and EPA per play allowed, sixth in success rate allowed,

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Speaker 2: ninth and DVO way and they've allowed a positive pass

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Speaker 2: excuse me, positive EPA per play in just three games

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Speaker 2: against Pittsburgh, Arizona, and funny enough, this past week against Tennessee.

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Speaker 2: Though I think a lot of that came in garbage time.

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Speaker 2: But you look at some of the offenses that they faced,

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Speaker 2: I mean, last Vegas, early in the season, Carolina, Denver,

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Speaker 2: New Orleans, Cleveland, Like, this is not a tough schedule

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Speaker 2: to be having this much success against opposing offenses. And again,

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Speaker 2: That's Saints game was without Derek Carr. So they now

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Speaker 2: face Cincinnati, who is seventh and EPA per play on offense.

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Speaker 2: We've seen what they can do on Thursday Night football

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Speaker 2: last week, So I like Cincinnati's team total over I

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Speaker 2: don't remember what it is right now, you know, I

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Speaker 2: just think they have the the bandwidth to get over this,

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Speaker 2: to really take advantage of this Chargers defense and sort

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Speaker 2: of point out that they are sort of a victim

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Speaker 2: of I guess, beneficiaries of a softer schedule.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's get to the Titans game here. There

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Speaker 1: going to be at home against the Minnesota Vikings. Titans defense,

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Speaker 1: you know, certainly has some talent on it, and the

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Speaker 1: Titans are a very difficult team because I could see

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Speaker 1: them covering the six at home here. That's not their

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Speaker 1: own possibilities, except for the fact you also see how

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Speaker 1: they've struggled against more potent offenses. They've got destroyed by

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Speaker 1: the Lions. The Bills put up thirty four on them,

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Speaker 1: you know, kind of looking around. But then there's also

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Speaker 1: the trend if you're seeing with the Minnesota Vikings too,

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Speaker 1: which is they should have smashed last week and Darnal

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Speaker 1: made a ton of mistakes, but that was a smash matchup,

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Speaker 1: if ever there was one, And to put up twelve

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Speaker 1: is just I mean, unforgivable. I mean, is that the

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Speaker 1: right word. I don't know what the right word is,

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Speaker 1: but it feels like the right word Sam when it

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Speaker 1: comes to the Titans. Here, what's the number here that

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Speaker 1: we should be paying attention to.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. So on the season again, the Titans defense has

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Speaker 2: been playing pretty well, but it has gotten a little

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Speaker 2: bit worse overall this year. They are third in yards

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Speaker 2: per Yeah, third in yards per play allowed. They are

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Speaker 2: allowing the fewest yards per game they are seventh, and

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Speaker 2: success rate twelfth, and EPA per play in eleventh and DVOA.

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Speaker 2: But they only have six turnovers, which is the third

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Speaker 2: fewest behind just the Raiders and the Browns. And they

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Speaker 2: have the fourth worst points per game allowed. So they're

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Speaker 2: not allowing a lot of yards, but they're allowing a

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Speaker 2: lot of points. Now, why is that. There's there's two reasons. One,

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Speaker 2: Will Levis and Mason Rudolph are giving their opponents very

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Speaker 2: short fields. They're throwing interceptions. They're turning the ball over

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Speaker 2: on offense, setting up the opposing offense for quick success.

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Speaker 2: Their special teams is doing the same thing. They are

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Speaker 2: by far the worst special teams unit in the league.

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Speaker 2: They rank last in special teams DVA. Last year, the

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Speaker 2: Rams had one of the worst special teams I think

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Speaker 2: historically and they were at a negative nine point two

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Speaker 2: percent Dvoway on the season. The Titans this year are

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Speaker 2: a negative fifteen point two percent, So not good at all.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you saw a couple of weeks ago that

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Speaker 2: the Lions game, you mentioned how much you know, tick

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Speaker 2: return notage they were giving up to them. It is

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Speaker 2: just not great. I think now is a perfect by

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Speaker 2: spot for Minnesota because again they were moving the ball

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Speaker 2: against Jacksonville, they got into the red zone. It was

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Speaker 2: just the turnovers that really got to them. Obviously having

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Speaker 2: to settle for field goals as well. But I think

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Speaker 2: again it's sort of a Bilo cell High sort of

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Speaker 2: situation here where I want to buy in on the

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Speaker 2: Minnesota Viking. Sam Donald is not definitely not looking as

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Speaker 2: great as he was earlier in the season, but I

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Speaker 2: still think this offense is better than what they showed

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Speaker 2: last week and against the Titans defense that has shown

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Speaker 2: it's works in the past.

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Speaker 1: I got a question for it's off topic, but it's

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Speaker 1: kind of Donald topic. Who do you see having the

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Speaker 1: better future of the NFL the next couple of years,

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Speaker 1: Sam Donald or Justin Fields based off what you saw

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Speaker 1: this season.

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Speaker 2: That is off topic and a very difficult question.

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Speaker 1: I think provocative question, right, That's why I asked.

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Speaker 2: You know what, It's difficult because you know, Donald is

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Speaker 2: really probably only starting this year because JJ McCarthy got hurt.

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Speaker 2: I think there's a chance, you know, Donald starts off

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Speaker 2: next season as the starter, depending on how McCarthy's recovery

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Speaker 2: goes well. But I honestly think that like executives and

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Speaker 2: general managers and stuff are going to lean more into

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Speaker 2: wanting to trust Donald a little bit more than justin Fields. Again,

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Speaker 2: I think both of them need to be in the

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Speaker 2: right situation.

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Speaker 1: To really thrive, and you can argue they haven't all

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Speaker 1: quite you know. I mean, Donald's been in the best

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Speaker 1: situation he could possibly be in. I think Fields still

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Speaker 1: I'm holding out hope there based on what I've seen

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Speaker 1: this year. I still don't see why they made the pivot.

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Speaker 1: I know Russell Wils's three and zero, but like, we'll see,

431
00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:14,119
Speaker 1: we'll see. I want to see when it faces a

432
00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:16,960
Speaker 1: better secondary one happens good. So far, like everyone's just

433
00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:19,560
Speaker 1: kind of like just letting them toss balls over guy's

434
00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:20,960
Speaker 1: heads and just like we're not.

435
00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:23,120
Speaker 2: Going to be facing this better secondary, this week.

436
00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:25,240
Speaker 1: So no, I know that's why it's gonna be another

437
00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:27,720
Speaker 1: one where he just looks good and I just man,

438
00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:30,639
Speaker 1: these fifty to fifty balls Eventually the other fifty wins

439
00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:33,560
Speaker 1: sometimes last one here before you get the Survivor Pool

440
00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:36,320
Speaker 1: pick of the week Chiefs and Bills. This is easy

441
00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:38,840
Speaker 1: for me. Patrick Mahomes is an underdog, Lockett. This was

442
00:23:38,880 --> 00:23:40,919
Speaker 1: one and a half yesterday of him as the underdog.

443
00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:42,879
Speaker 1: Now it's two and a half, so I bet it again.

444
00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:47,640
Speaker 1: So I'm just yeah, please, all of the possible underdog

445
00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:49,719
Speaker 1: Mahomes I can get. This is how I made all

446
00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:52,000
Speaker 1: my playoff money last year. Sam, what do you have

447
00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:54,680
Speaker 1: to add on this big marquee four to twenty five

448
00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:57,600
Speaker 1: Eastern matchup that everybody's gonna be stopping everything they're doing

449
00:23:57,640 --> 00:23:58,040
Speaker 1: to watch.

450
00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:01,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, So I just got to say it right now.

451
00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:05,040
Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes as an underdog in his career twelve and

452
00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:09,000
Speaker 2: three straight up, thirteen to one and one against the spread.

453
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 2: I mean, it's it's easy to go to him as

454
00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:16,440
Speaker 2: an underdog. The Bills again.

455
00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:20,119
Speaker 1: They're undefeated, Sam, Yeah, they're needed. They got no respect.

456
00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:23,800
Speaker 2: They probably shouldn't be based on last week's.

457
00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:25,840
Speaker 1: But they are. But When does it matter that they

458
00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:28,760
Speaker 1: find ways to win? When does it matter that in

459
00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:33,240
Speaker 1: all three aspects and the coaching they find ways to win,

460
00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:34,439
Speaker 1: Like shouldn't that matter?

461
00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:39,480
Speaker 2: It does? And I think I think if you think

462
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:41,879
Speaker 2: about the way the Chiefs are built now, it is

463
00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:45,520
Speaker 2: very different than three four years ago. Three four years

464
00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:48,440
Speaker 2: ago it was two to three play drives where they're

465
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:52,119
Speaker 2: scoring at will. Now they are marching down the field.

466
00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:56,040
Speaker 2: They are meticulous, They are you know, racking up first

467
00:24:56,160 --> 00:25:02,160
Speaker 2: downs and are you know, success rating these opponent composing

468
00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:08,280
Speaker 2: defenses to death. And so I do think that that

469
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 2: is that makes for a more stable offensive environment, right,

470
00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:15,120
Speaker 2: Like if you're consistently moving the ball and stuff like that,

471
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:18,960
Speaker 2: like it's it's easier to consistently You're going to have

472
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:21,320
Speaker 2: a higher floor, is what I'm trying to say. And

473
00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:25,920
Speaker 2: so with as good as their defense is, having a

474
00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:29,680
Speaker 2: high floor plus a high floor offense is just going

475
00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:33,360
Speaker 2: to result in a lot of wins. But getting back

476
00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:38,439
Speaker 2: to this game specifically, both teams have actually been a

477
00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:41,520
Speaker 2: little bit more pass heavy the last several weeks to

478
00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:43,720
Speaker 2: both top three and pass right over expectation in the

479
00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:47,280
Speaker 2: last four weeks, And I think through the air is

480
00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:51,160
Speaker 2: how both of these offenses need to move the ball

481
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:54,800
Speaker 2: against the opposing defenses. The Bills one defense has been

482
00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:58,119
Speaker 2: extremely stout lately, obviously led up a big run to

483
00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:01,200
Speaker 2: Jonathan Taylor last week, but they are first in rushing

484
00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:04,439
Speaker 2: EPA per play allowed the last four weeks, and I

485
00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:06,840
Speaker 2: think the Chiefs, if they want to win, are going

486
00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:09,680
Speaker 2: to need to pass the ball. There are some key

487
00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:12,960
Speaker 2: injuries on both offenses. Key on Coleman for the Bills

488
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:17,920
Speaker 2: already ruled out, Dalton Kincaid and Amari Cooper both still questionable,

489
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:21,639
Speaker 2: So again, if the Bills are without all three of

490
00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:25,280
Speaker 2: those players, they're going to be looking to Khalil Shakir

491
00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:33,600
Speaker 2: and Kurtis Samuel and mccollins, which is not great. And

492
00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:37,080
Speaker 2: then on the Chiefs side, left tackle Janny Morris left

493
00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:40,400
Speaker 2: Week ten with a knee injury due to Smith Schuster

494
00:26:41,359 --> 00:26:44,600
Speaker 2: obviously not a huge part of the offense, but gives

495
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:48,240
Speaker 2: them some depth at wide receiver as well. So I

496
00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:52,359
Speaker 2: think a lot of injuries specifically on the Bill side

497
00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:55,600
Speaker 2: that really make a big difference as to what side

498
00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:59,320
Speaker 2: you want to bet on. Again, the Bills being one

499
00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:02,159
Speaker 2: and a half two half point favorites again depends on

500
00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:04,680
Speaker 2: where you look. Right now, they're essentially saying that these

501
00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:07,919
Speaker 2: teams are even on a neutral feel, which I feels

502
00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:12,280
Speaker 2: about right, and they're two different teams. But yeah, this

503
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:14,080
Speaker 2: is gonna be a fun one. I'm excited.

504
00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:19,240
Speaker 1: Chiefs money line. Lock it up, folks, lock it up. Also,

505
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:22,480
Speaker 1: this literally just came over the wire while you were talking.

506
00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:24,479
Speaker 1: I was looking at it. The Chiefs are designated Isaiba

507
00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:29,000
Speaker 1: check out to return from the IRS. That's speedy. Yeah,

508
00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:31,800
Speaker 1: so I don't know how much that enters in if

509
00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:34,280
Speaker 1: he's going to play. We saw Nico Collins get designated

510
00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:37,399
Speaker 1: to return, but he didn't, so before we get our

511
00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:40,240
Speaker 1: hopes up when that's changing anything again, follow along to

512
00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:42,879
Speaker 1: figure that out. Last, but not least here survivable pick

513
00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:45,040
Speaker 1: of the week. Let's go deep to the heart attacks

514
00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:48,080
Speaker 1: here because the Dallas Cowboys are falling apart of the scene,

515
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:53,360
Speaker 1: Sammy and Houston could certainly use a Win's talk about timing, right,

516
00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:55,720
Speaker 1: This feels like the best possible time for the Houston

517
00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:57,439
Speaker 1: Texans to catch the Cowboys, doesn't it.

518
00:27:57,520 --> 00:28:00,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, Yeah, I'm gonna go with the Houston Texans here.

519
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:02,880
Speaker 2: Keep a short and simple. I do think the Texans

520
00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:06,240
Speaker 2: are like a mid tier team right now as they're

521
00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:10,080
Speaker 2: currently constructed, but they get to play Cooper Rush slash

522
00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:12,600
Speaker 2: Trey Lance and they have a top five defense. The

523
00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:16,720
Speaker 2: defense is still playing outstanding. I don't see a world

524
00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:21,000
Speaker 2: in which the Cowboys score more than fourteen points, and

525
00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:24,040
Speaker 2: I think the Texans offense has enough to outscore them,

526
00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:26,600
Speaker 2: so easy, lock it up, give me the Texans.

527
00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:30,760
Speaker 1: There you go, everybody, make sure you follow Sam over

528
00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:33,520
Speaker 1: on Betting Pros and make sure you also check out

529
00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:35,080
Speaker 1: all of his work there at Bettingpros dot com to

530
00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:36,879
Speaker 1: some great write ups and things going on there, and

531
00:28:36,920 --> 00:28:39,560
Speaker 1: download the VP app, use the tools, use the systems,

532
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:42,080
Speaker 1: use the line alerts, use everything, and don't forget to

533
00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:44,840
Speaker 1: subscribe to the YouTube channel and also wherever you get

534
00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:47,520
Speaker 1: your podcast to Betting Pros. That'll do it for us.

535
00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:49,720
Speaker 1: But the story of the game goes on for Sam Hoppin.

536
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:52,280
Speaker 1: I'm Joey p. We'll see you next time. Kids.

537
00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:55,400
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

538
00:28:55,480 --> 00:28:57,840
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539
00:28:57,840 --> 00:29:01,240
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540
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:04,160
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541
00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:06,080
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542
00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:07,920
Speaker 2: Also subscribe to our YouTube

543
00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:10,480
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