1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:04,640 Speaker 1: Hello, all listeners to Stephanomics Stephanie Flanders, I wanted to 2 00:00:04,640 --> 00:00:07,200 Speaker 1: share with you a new podcast from Bloomberg called What 3 00:00:07,360 --> 00:00:11,160 Speaker 1: Goes Up. Each week, hosts Sarah Pontick and Mike Reagan 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,400 Speaker 1: speak with expert guests about the main themes influencing global markets. 5 00:00:15,840 --> 00:00:19,640 Speaker 1: They explore everything from stocks to bonds, to currencies and commodities. 6 00:00:19,880 --> 00:00:22,560 Speaker 1: So if you're curious about the latest buzz on Wall Street, 7 00:00:22,840 --> 00:00:25,079 Speaker 1: this show is for you. We're going to play you 8 00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:27,120 Speaker 1: the latest episode of What Goes Up and if you 9 00:00:27,160 --> 00:00:29,400 Speaker 1: like what you hear and want to hear more, the 10 00:00:29,400 --> 00:00:32,080 Speaker 1: show's out now and you can subscribe to What Goes 11 00:00:32,159 --> 00:00:35,280 Speaker 1: Up on Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. 12 00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:51,879 Speaker 1: Thanks and enjoy. Hello and welcome to What goes Out, 13 00:00:52,159 --> 00:00:55,920 Speaker 1: a Bloomberg weekly markets podcast. I'm Sarah Panza, a markets 14 00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:58,680 Speaker 1: reporter on the Cross Asset Team, and I am Mike Reagan, 15 00:00:58,840 --> 00:01:01,200 Speaker 1: a senior editor on the Markets Team. This week on 16 00:01:01,240 --> 00:01:04,319 Speaker 1: the show, from long shot to base Case, Wall Street 17 00:01:04,360 --> 00:01:07,800 Speaker 1: is growing increasingly pestimistic, but a trade deal might not 18 00:01:07,880 --> 00:01:10,920 Speaker 1: be reached over the summer months, and even as the 19 00:01:10,959 --> 00:01:14,360 Speaker 1: Fed preaches patients, bonn yields continue to fall with the 20 00:01:14,440 --> 00:01:18,600 Speaker 1: ten year treasury yield reaching the lowest level since And 21 00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:21,480 Speaker 1: of course, sir, we will finish the show with the 22 00:01:21,480 --> 00:01:25,600 Speaker 1: ever popular the Craziest Thing I ever saw in markets 23 00:01:25,640 --> 00:01:27,560 Speaker 1: this week, at least this week. I hope you have 24 00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:28,880 Speaker 1: a good one. Do you have a good crazy thing? 25 00:01:29,080 --> 00:01:30,480 Speaker 1: I will have a good one by the end of 26 00:01:30,480 --> 00:01:31,840 Speaker 1: the podcast. All right, I've got a good one. No 27 00:01:31,959 --> 00:01:35,000 Speaker 1: pressure on our guests. The mind's mind's pretty good. I'm 28 00:01:35,040 --> 00:01:38,920 Speaker 1: just throwing it out there. That's it. I'm not trying. Well, 29 00:01:38,920 --> 00:01:41,160 Speaker 1: that's one of our guests there, Emily Barrett, you better 30 00:01:41,200 --> 00:01:45,800 Speaker 1: have something good. Uh. Emily is our correspondent straight fresh 31 00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:48,480 Speaker 1: from the trade Wars covering the bonds and FX markets. 32 00:01:48,480 --> 00:01:52,560 Speaker 1: That's exactly how it feels, and also joining us on 33 00:01:52,600 --> 00:01:57,280 Speaker 1: the show. Geno Martin Adams, the chief equity strategist here 34 00:01:57,280 --> 00:02:00,360 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg. Gina spent many years as a strategist Wells 35 00:02:00,400 --> 00:02:03,240 Speaker 1: Fargo Wacoba Corp. Before that. But Sarah, I was looking 36 00:02:03,280 --> 00:02:05,560 Speaker 1: at Gina's bio. Something I did not know about her. 37 00:02:06,120 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 1: She's a Gator. Yes, you know that. I am from 38 00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:12,560 Speaker 1: South Florida as well. I'm a Gator by birth. No, 39 00:02:12,840 --> 00:02:15,800 Speaker 1: that's too Florida women on the show. I don't know, 40 00:02:15,840 --> 00:02:20,240 Speaker 1: Florida women don't make the news quite as entertaining. Yeah, 41 00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:25,720 Speaker 1: but maybe we can change that. Don't underestimate that. But 42 00:02:26,160 --> 00:02:29,200 Speaker 1: this week We've been talking about US China trade for 43 00:02:29,240 --> 00:02:31,440 Speaker 1: a while now, but it seems like we got a 44 00:02:31,520 --> 00:02:34,280 Speaker 1: bit of a step up. We think about what's changed, 45 00:02:34,480 --> 00:02:37,760 Speaker 1: for one being the Huawei blacklist. We've also heard talks 46 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:41,240 Speaker 1: that other surveillance companies out of China could be blacklisted 47 00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:44,359 Speaker 1: as well. And we even have a fight song out 48 00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:47,640 Speaker 1: of China and for gators. I went to school at Michigan. 49 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:50,120 Speaker 1: You know, a good fight song can really rile people 50 00:02:50,200 --> 00:02:54,640 Speaker 1: up Gina. From your perspective, is this becoming something that 51 00:02:54,800 --> 00:02:58,440 Speaker 1: traders investors can really no longer ignore. Yeah. I don't 52 00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:01,280 Speaker 1: necessarily think they have ignored ward it, but it did 53 00:03:01,320 --> 00:03:03,160 Speaker 1: take a new step this week, and it took a 54 00:03:03,160 --> 00:03:05,160 Speaker 1: step into a tech war as opposed to just a 55 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:07,720 Speaker 1: trade war. I think when you look back over the 56 00:03:07,760 --> 00:03:10,040 Speaker 1: course of the last year, that's been the most dangerous 57 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:13,720 Speaker 1: aspect of the U. S. China relationship shift. It's not 58 00:03:13,840 --> 00:03:16,440 Speaker 1: the tariffs. The tariffs are a teeny tiny portion of 59 00:03:16,480 --> 00:03:19,360 Speaker 1: GDP growth, they're a teeny tiny portion of earnings growth. 60 00:03:19,840 --> 00:03:22,320 Speaker 1: You know, you've run through the quantification of tariffs and 61 00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:25,440 Speaker 1: you find out real quick how small they are, which 62 00:03:25,480 --> 00:03:28,000 Speaker 1: is why stocks could sort of bounce around in the 63 00:03:28,000 --> 00:03:31,160 Speaker 1: one to three percent decline range up until this week, 64 00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:34,560 Speaker 1: and we did see an elevated level of volatility this week. 65 00:03:34,600 --> 00:03:39,520 Speaker 1: We've seen a lot more angst evident in broad market classes, 66 00:03:39,560 --> 00:03:42,160 Speaker 1: with the rise and gold as a good example. This week. 67 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:45,800 Speaker 1: Small caps really getting creamed this week, So much bigger 68 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:48,840 Speaker 1: risk off sentiment this week than last week. And I 69 00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:51,040 Speaker 1: think the reason for that is this week it became 70 00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:55,240 Speaker 1: about tech, not about trade. Gee, I'm curious, in uh, 71 00:03:55,360 --> 00:03:57,600 Speaker 1: your career, have you ever thought about politics as much 72 00:03:57,640 --> 00:04:00,080 Speaker 1: as as we have through these days. It seems like 73 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:07,320 Speaker 1: a very uncomfortable thing for fundamental technical analysts. Yeah, it's uh. 74 00:04:07,440 --> 00:04:10,560 Speaker 1: I have thought about politics a lot over the course 75 00:04:10,600 --> 00:04:13,440 Speaker 1: of the last several years. I mean, I can distinctly 76 00:04:13,480 --> 00:04:17,359 Speaker 1: remember sixteen as a year in which it was all 77 00:04:17,400 --> 00:04:20,560 Speaker 1: you know, the popular sentiment on Wall Street was if 78 00:04:20,600 --> 00:04:24,320 Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton wins, stocks should do fine. If trade, if Trump, 79 00:04:24,320 --> 00:04:27,279 Speaker 1: when stocks are gonna get pummeled, right, and the opposite, 80 00:04:27,320 --> 00:04:30,360 Speaker 1: The exact opposite thing occurred right after the Trump election. 81 00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:34,920 Speaker 1: Inen then the thing was stocks just climbed this wall 82 00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:37,479 Speaker 1: of wari because everyone was really concerned about Trump. I 83 00:04:37,480 --> 00:04:40,480 Speaker 1: think throughout my career, I've always had to focus on 84 00:04:40,600 --> 00:04:43,560 Speaker 1: policy in general, but more so on monetary policy than 85 00:04:43,680 --> 00:04:48,280 Speaker 1: on fiscal policy, and certainly never on trade policy. And 86 00:04:48,680 --> 00:04:51,479 Speaker 1: you know, even the smartest trade policy movements in the 87 00:04:51,520 --> 00:04:54,800 Speaker 1: Bush administration weren't so meaningful for the broad market. So 88 00:04:55,360 --> 00:04:58,679 Speaker 1: it's definitely a very different kind of policy that we 89 00:04:58,680 --> 00:05:01,480 Speaker 1: were now focused on. Though policy is always important, it's 90 00:05:01,520 --> 00:05:04,359 Speaker 1: just usually monetary rather than than trade or fiscal that 91 00:05:04,400 --> 00:05:07,480 Speaker 1: really matters. And you mentioned how and I think everyone's 92 00:05:07,480 --> 00:05:11,960 Speaker 1: doing this now. You take the x percent tariffs on 93 00:05:13,000 --> 00:05:15,640 Speaker 1: x dollar value of goods and you get why you 94 00:05:15,680 --> 00:05:18,400 Speaker 1: get a certain effect on earnings on revenue, But I 95 00:05:18,400 --> 00:05:20,720 Speaker 1: wonder is there more to it than that? Or there's 96 00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:25,599 Speaker 1: sort of unquantifiable risks uh to confidence, to sentiment, that 97 00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:27,279 Speaker 1: sort of thing, and and how you know, how do 98 00:05:27,279 --> 00:05:29,120 Speaker 1: you wrap your head around that as the type of 99 00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:32,200 Speaker 1: strategists you are who is deep into the numbers. Yeah, 100 00:05:32,240 --> 00:05:36,320 Speaker 1: it's it's frankly, very very difficult because behavioral analysis is 101 00:05:36,360 --> 00:05:38,799 Speaker 1: a huge part of markets, and I think the only 102 00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:41,960 Speaker 1: way to really analyze the potential impact to this is 103 00:05:41,960 --> 00:05:45,000 Speaker 1: through price itself. You know, we can all speculate as 104 00:05:45,040 --> 00:05:47,480 Speaker 1: to what it means for GDP growth globally. We can 105 00:05:47,520 --> 00:05:49,520 Speaker 1: all speculate as to how much of this is either 106 00:05:49,600 --> 00:05:52,760 Speaker 1: inflationary or deflationary, But the hard truth is nobody knows. 107 00:05:53,279 --> 00:05:55,080 Speaker 1: We could try to quantify it, we could try to 108 00:05:55,080 --> 00:05:57,440 Speaker 1: pretend we know more than anybody else, but the reality 109 00:05:57,560 --> 00:06:00,680 Speaker 1: is the market itself, which is an aggregate of millions 110 00:06:00,680 --> 00:06:03,599 Speaker 1: and millions of people's opinions, is probably smarter than any 111 00:06:03,640 --> 00:06:05,520 Speaker 1: of us in this room. Right I've made a whole 112 00:06:05,560 --> 00:06:10,600 Speaker 1: career out of pretending I know more than uh and 113 00:06:10,680 --> 00:06:13,239 Speaker 1: so I watched price very very carefully, and what price 114 00:06:13,279 --> 00:06:16,839 Speaker 1: tells me right now is okay. So far the risk 115 00:06:16,880 --> 00:06:19,719 Speaker 1: of this, there's somewhat contained five percent correction and stocks 116 00:06:19,800 --> 00:06:22,000 Speaker 1: is nothing. These things come around every nine months or 117 00:06:22,000 --> 00:06:25,920 Speaker 1: so on average. But if we start to work our 118 00:06:25,920 --> 00:06:28,440 Speaker 1: way toward ten percent, we break that ten percent line, 119 00:06:28,440 --> 00:06:31,160 Speaker 1: it becomes very clear that the market's impression of this 120 00:06:31,240 --> 00:06:33,719 Speaker 1: is something much worse right now, something I've been hearing 121 00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:36,200 Speaker 1: as to why markets have been decently resilient. We're not 122 00:06:36,279 --> 00:06:38,479 Speaker 1: too far off the highs. Like you said, is that 123 00:06:38,520 --> 00:06:40,920 Speaker 1: you look at the economic data, you look at the fundamentals, 124 00:06:40,960 --> 00:06:44,280 Speaker 1: and they're still largely strong. However, this past week we 125 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:47,520 Speaker 1: did see some weaker p m I numbers in the US, 126 00:06:47,600 --> 00:06:51,520 Speaker 1: not yet contracting, but pretty close on the cusp. What 127 00:06:51,640 --> 00:06:55,240 Speaker 1: could it take to really push us off the edge? 128 00:06:55,640 --> 00:06:59,920 Speaker 1: So historically you're not pushed off the edge until manufacturer 129 00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:01,360 Speaker 1: p m I in the US is all the way 130 00:07:01,360 --> 00:07:05,160 Speaker 1: down at forty three. I think the market will absolutely 131 00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:10,520 Speaker 1: hesitate reach a point of very big insecurity if I 132 00:07:10,680 --> 00:07:13,840 Speaker 1: s M falls below fifty. Uh. That's one of the 133 00:07:13,880 --> 00:07:16,560 Speaker 1: big keys that we watch. Initial claims is another one 134 00:07:17,000 --> 00:07:21,200 Speaker 1: incredibly important to the direction of equities, long term initial claims. 135 00:07:21,200 --> 00:07:23,480 Speaker 1: If initial claims start rise, saying, and especially if they 136 00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:26,240 Speaker 1: rise more than fifty thousand, start to move towards seventy 137 00:07:26,600 --> 00:07:29,080 Speaker 1: in a rise, you're pretty much assured that you're falling 138 00:07:29,080 --> 00:07:32,000 Speaker 1: into recession. Uh. The other thing to watch is, of 139 00:07:32,040 --> 00:07:34,400 Speaker 1: course the bond markets. We you still haven't had that 140 00:07:34,440 --> 00:07:36,800 Speaker 1: inversion of the two stents at least last I checked, 141 00:07:37,320 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 1: and that's a big key trigger for the equity market sentiment. 142 00:07:40,080 --> 00:07:42,680 Speaker 1: As well. So there are a lot of different things 143 00:07:42,720 --> 00:07:45,560 Speaker 1: that I think you want to watch for the economic data. 144 00:07:46,120 --> 00:07:49,160 Speaker 1: You know, frankly, consumer confidence, which is still near a 145 00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:52,120 Speaker 1: fifteen year high, is still pretty supportive, So you need 146 00:07:52,160 --> 00:07:55,440 Speaker 1: to see a big deterioration and consumer confidence as well. 147 00:07:55,440 --> 00:07:58,120 Speaker 1: What's a good segue into our next guest on the 148 00:07:58,120 --> 00:08:02,200 Speaker 1: Bonds team, Emily, You had a story out UM this 149 00:08:02,280 --> 00:08:06,160 Speaker 1: week talking about the market expectations for inflation. I just 150 00:08:06,240 --> 00:08:08,160 Speaker 1: want to read one line because I think it's it's 151 00:08:08,160 --> 00:08:11,480 Speaker 1: pretty important, uh, right that since consumer price gains have 152 00:08:11,520 --> 00:08:13,840 Speaker 1: been lagging the FEDS two percent target for much of 153 00:08:13,840 --> 00:08:16,720 Speaker 1: the past decade, it's a little wonder that inflation isn't 154 00:08:16,720 --> 00:08:20,040 Speaker 1: a hot topic in the market yet, don't duntune, but 155 00:08:20,120 --> 00:08:23,000 Speaker 1: it may be warming up with the Fed actively debating 156 00:08:23,040 --> 00:08:25,880 Speaker 1: how it can meet its inflation goals, including a June 157 00:08:26,320 --> 00:08:29,559 Speaker 1: fourth the fifth conference to discuss different approaches. I feel 158 00:08:29,560 --> 00:08:34,120 Speaker 1: like the trade tensions are UH causing a lot of 159 00:08:34,160 --> 00:08:38,120 Speaker 1: confusion about what we should expect for inflation. Obviously, the 160 00:08:38,160 --> 00:08:42,160 Speaker 1: market is pricing in lower inflation going forward, Um, but 161 00:08:42,200 --> 00:08:44,839 Speaker 1: a lot of people are talking about the pure inflationary 162 00:08:44,960 --> 00:08:49,319 Speaker 1: effects of the tariffs on the consumer what is sort 163 00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:51,800 Speaker 1: of the consensus out there or what's the smartest take 164 00:08:51,960 --> 00:08:55,960 Speaker 1: you've heard about what we should expect as far as inflation, 165 00:08:56,320 --> 00:08:58,559 Speaker 1: uh in the trade trade war, right, Yeah, I mean 166 00:08:58,559 --> 00:09:00,160 Speaker 1: this is the interesting thing. I think people try and 167 00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:03,680 Speaker 1: disaggregate what's the shorter term issue in terms of the 168 00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:07,160 Speaker 1: inflation impact, and directly I've seen some Golden Sacks Golden 169 00:09:07,160 --> 00:09:09,640 Speaker 1: Sacks analysis saying, you know, this is the boost that 170 00:09:09,640 --> 00:09:11,240 Speaker 1: we might see two c p I and the mean 171 00:09:11,400 --> 00:09:13,960 Speaker 1: in sort of the medium term. But people are really 172 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:17,200 Speaker 1: focusing on that longer term potential drag on growth, and 173 00:09:17,280 --> 00:09:19,040 Speaker 1: as they're looking to that, they're sort of seeing if 174 00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:21,120 Speaker 1: growth starts to slow, then you have more and more 175 00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:25,120 Speaker 1: headwinds to that inflationary impulse. And so really that's where 176 00:09:25,120 --> 00:09:27,640 Speaker 1: we're seeing this decline and break evens, which is the 177 00:09:27,720 --> 00:09:30,640 Speaker 1: inflation premium that are built into treasuries. Um, we're seeing 178 00:09:30,640 --> 00:09:32,840 Speaker 1: that just coming down and down. And that's despite the 179 00:09:32,840 --> 00:09:34,920 Speaker 1: fact that you know, we've had tariffs put on, there 180 00:09:34,920 --> 00:09:37,320 Speaker 1: are other things. There's been oil price gains sort of 181 00:09:37,640 --> 00:09:40,360 Speaker 1: uh in the year to date hasn't been reflected at all, 182 00:09:40,400 --> 00:09:43,480 Speaker 1: and normally break evens would follow that pretty closely. So 183 00:09:43,679 --> 00:09:46,320 Speaker 1: we're seeing this kind of really sort of counterintuitive moving 184 00:09:46,360 --> 00:09:49,760 Speaker 1: inflation markets. And it's because you know, people talked for 185 00:09:49,800 --> 00:09:53,040 Speaker 1: ages about secular stagnation. You've got bored of hearing about this. 186 00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:56,160 Speaker 1: But it seems that the forces that are pressuring inflation 187 00:09:56,200 --> 00:09:58,400 Speaker 1: lower it's not just in the US, it's globally and 188 00:09:58,440 --> 00:10:01,480 Speaker 1: so much stronger else where. People would argued, UM really 189 00:10:01,520 --> 00:10:03,719 Speaker 1: our top of mind for most investors, and so that's 190 00:10:03,720 --> 00:10:05,840 Speaker 1: going to be hard to fight. And this is this 191 00:10:05,920 --> 00:10:09,000 Speaker 1: is where it comes down to people's expectations for rate cuts. 192 00:10:09,080 --> 00:10:12,199 Speaker 1: I mean, there's a sense in the market that the FED, 193 00:10:12,400 --> 00:10:14,480 Speaker 1: if it's going to be serious about hitting its two 194 00:10:14,520 --> 00:10:16,800 Speaker 1: percent inflation target, is really going to need to take 195 00:10:16,880 --> 00:10:19,960 Speaker 1: some action on rates to lower them UM. And people 196 00:10:20,000 --> 00:10:21,400 Speaker 1: have gone so far as to say, a couple of 197 00:10:21,400 --> 00:10:23,480 Speaker 1: people I spoke to, you know, it's not just one cut, 198 00:10:23,520 --> 00:10:26,640 Speaker 1: it's probably two or three if you want to hit UM. 199 00:10:26,679 --> 00:10:28,920 Speaker 1: The thing that's interesting about where c p I is 200 00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:31,400 Speaker 1: at the moment is relative to the Fed's target. The 201 00:10:31,400 --> 00:10:35,360 Speaker 1: FED prefers consumption expenditure, so they look at a PC 202 00:10:35,679 --> 00:10:39,160 Speaker 1: rate which is actually forty to forty basis points below 203 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:43,360 Speaker 1: where CPI is, so Um, so that's it's even worse 204 00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:46,080 Speaker 1: really if you look at the Fed's preferred measure. I 205 00:10:46,160 --> 00:10:48,520 Speaker 1: know a lot of people are looking at the FED 206 00:10:48,559 --> 00:10:51,440 Speaker 1: minutes that came out this week and calling it old news. Um, 207 00:10:51,520 --> 00:10:53,560 Speaker 1: but I ran a little control fine just to see 208 00:10:53,720 --> 00:10:56,880 Speaker 1: where the word transitory comes up, and transitory appeared twice 209 00:10:56,920 --> 00:10:59,960 Speaker 1: as it relates to inflation, whereas the last time around 210 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:02,680 Speaker 1: we saw the word transitory once, but it was related 211 00:11:02,720 --> 00:11:07,520 Speaker 1: to GDP and first quarter slower growth being transitory. What 212 00:11:07,760 --> 00:11:11,520 Speaker 1: else did we possibly learn from the minutes, if it's 213 00:11:11,559 --> 00:11:13,959 Speaker 1: possible to clean anything more from what we've heard from 214 00:11:13,960 --> 00:11:16,480 Speaker 1: FAT officials, I think what people wanted to see. I mean, 215 00:11:16,520 --> 00:11:19,880 Speaker 1: this must be the shortest lived transitory impact on markets ever, 216 00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:23,400 Speaker 1: because after you know, when Fed the Fed's Powell was 217 00:11:23,480 --> 00:11:26,760 Speaker 1: really pushing that transitory message, you know what's weighing on inflation, 218 00:11:26,800 --> 00:11:28,800 Speaker 1: It's going to be very short lived. You did see 219 00:11:28,840 --> 00:11:31,040 Speaker 1: a market correction that started to sell off a little. 220 00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:32,760 Speaker 1: Oh right, Okay, we might come back if the FED 221 00:11:32,800 --> 00:11:35,480 Speaker 1: believes this is going to happen, But that just got crushed. 222 00:11:35,480 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 1: And what the minutes gave us was this sense that 223 00:11:38,559 --> 00:11:41,480 Speaker 1: at least among the f O M c that the 224 00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:45,079 Speaker 1: FEDS Committee, there is a broad agreement that these or 225 00:11:45,120 --> 00:11:48,160 Speaker 1: at least they're own message that people seem to think that, yes, 226 00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:51,200 Speaker 1: this could be a transitory impact. But from the people 227 00:11:51,240 --> 00:11:53,680 Speaker 1: I've spoken to, they're listening at the fact to the 228 00:11:53,720 --> 00:11:57,280 Speaker 1: fact that the transitory effects don't quite make up for 229 00:11:57,320 --> 00:11:59,760 Speaker 1: the short form inflation. They really do believe that they're 230 00:11:59,760 --> 00:12:02,320 Speaker 1: a longer forces at work here. So what we learned 231 00:12:02,320 --> 00:12:04,120 Speaker 1: from the minutes, it's a really good question. I mean, 232 00:12:04,240 --> 00:12:06,920 Speaker 1: I'm not even sure that, uh, you know, the trade 233 00:12:06,960 --> 00:12:09,840 Speaker 1: impact wasn't factored in because obviously most of the trade 234 00:12:09,880 --> 00:12:13,520 Speaker 1: fallout really happened after the minutes were released. Um, so 235 00:12:13,679 --> 00:12:16,240 Speaker 1: the bump that we should have got, I've got a 236 00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:18,560 Speaker 1: much more hope of getting it back. Really at this 237 00:12:18,600 --> 00:12:22,680 Speaker 1: point now, if the break evens are right and we're 238 00:12:23,000 --> 00:12:27,679 Speaker 1: due for some weaker inflation going forward, what does that 239 00:12:28,280 --> 00:12:31,480 Speaker 1: make certain sectors, certain factors look more attractive to you? 240 00:12:31,960 --> 00:12:34,199 Speaker 1: How would how would you recommend playing sort of the 241 00:12:35,160 --> 00:12:38,199 Speaker 1: low inflation environment? Well, it depends on if we are 242 00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:41,480 Speaker 1: indeed in for a transitory or a longer term sort 243 00:12:41,480 --> 00:12:45,360 Speaker 1: of disinflationary deflationary trend first start. But if we assume 244 00:12:45,400 --> 00:12:49,040 Speaker 1: that it's very very short term. More than likely it 245 00:12:49,080 --> 00:12:51,760 Speaker 1: pushes you into more defensive sort of sectors, and I 246 00:12:51,760 --> 00:12:53,480 Speaker 1: think we've seen that over the course of the last 247 00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:56,840 Speaker 1: couple of months. Our sector strategy model even pushed us 248 00:12:56,840 --> 00:12:59,360 Speaker 1: into defensive sectors as early as the end of April, 249 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:03,000 Speaker 1: and that largely reflects what's happening in rates. And rates 250 00:13:03,000 --> 00:13:06,880 Speaker 1: are rallying so much, indicating that this inflation pressure is 251 00:13:06,920 --> 00:13:09,960 Speaker 1: somewhat nil at least in the short run, suggesting that 252 00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:13,400 Speaker 1: the downside risk to growth is still pretty evident. And 253 00:13:13,480 --> 00:13:16,120 Speaker 1: at a time after stocks had already rallied tremendously in 254 00:13:16,160 --> 00:13:19,360 Speaker 1: the first quarter, the valuation multiple started to shift as 255 00:13:19,400 --> 00:13:22,439 Speaker 1: well on the cyclicals versus defensives. Call I could tell 256 00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:26,120 Speaker 1: you one sector it absolutely suggests you want to stay 257 00:13:26,160 --> 00:13:29,040 Speaker 1: away from, and this is manifestans price performance as well 258 00:13:29,080 --> 00:13:32,200 Speaker 1: as energy. There's one sector that is just constantly the 259 00:13:32,240 --> 00:13:35,240 Speaker 1: inflation play in the equity market. It's energy, and then 260 00:13:35,240 --> 00:13:38,520 Speaker 1: to a lesser extent, materials. As much as this last 261 00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:40,840 Speaker 1: month of weakness in the equity market seems to have 262 00:13:40,880 --> 00:13:44,120 Speaker 1: been about tech, the energy sector is down four bases 263 00:13:44,120 --> 00:13:47,479 Speaker 1: points more than tech stocks. I mean, it's just getting crushed. 264 00:13:47,880 --> 00:13:50,720 Speaker 1: It's making new relative price lows in comparison to the 265 00:13:50,840 --> 00:13:53,880 Speaker 1: SMP five hundred, and has been persistently for the last 266 00:13:53,920 --> 00:13:59,000 Speaker 1: several years. So the equity signal is actually very deflationary. 267 00:13:59,040 --> 00:14:03,280 Speaker 1: If not deflationary, then at least disinflationary, and has persisted 268 00:14:03,679 --> 00:14:06,080 Speaker 1: through a long period of time. At the beginning of 269 00:14:06,080 --> 00:14:07,840 Speaker 1: the year, I heard the case being made a lot 270 00:14:07,880 --> 00:14:10,520 Speaker 1: that we needed to see energy prices close the gap 271 00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:13,679 Speaker 1: with oil prices because we had seen oil rally so much. Well, 272 00:14:13,679 --> 00:14:16,720 Speaker 1: now clearly we're seeing oil prices roll over, we're seeing 273 00:14:16,840 --> 00:14:20,120 Speaker 1: energy stocks roll over. Is the case for that, for 274 00:14:20,240 --> 00:14:22,640 Speaker 1: energy prices to move up to oil prices and close 275 00:14:22,720 --> 00:14:25,920 Speaker 1: the gap kind of disintegrating? Yeah, you know, that gap 276 00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:28,880 Speaker 1: has been existing for the last three years, so you 277 00:14:28,880 --> 00:14:31,560 Speaker 1: could even take it all the way back toleven when 278 00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:34,440 Speaker 1: the gaps started to widen. You know, I think that 279 00:14:34,440 --> 00:14:39,600 Speaker 1: the terrible fate for energy stocks is unfortunately, every time 280 00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:42,360 Speaker 1: oil prices rise, it's met with a new wave of supply, 281 00:14:42,840 --> 00:14:47,000 Speaker 1: which constrains profitability and constrains the inevitent and constrains the 282 00:14:47,080 --> 00:14:51,200 Speaker 1: oil price from continuing to rise. And that's very well 283 00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:54,840 Speaker 1: played out in energy stocks and energy investors. Investors just 284 00:14:54,880 --> 00:14:57,400 Speaker 1: don't want to touch the sector on that premise alone. 285 00:14:58,160 --> 00:15:01,280 Speaker 1: From a sentiment perspective, you got a love energy for 286 00:15:01,320 --> 00:15:04,600 Speaker 1: a long term sort of sentiment call. You're looking at 287 00:15:04,600 --> 00:15:06,800 Speaker 1: a sector that's now less as a share of market 288 00:15:06,800 --> 00:15:09,920 Speaker 1: cap of the SMP five than it was when oil 289 00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:13,160 Speaker 1: prices were ten dollars of barrel. So nobody wants to 290 00:15:13,160 --> 00:15:16,800 Speaker 1: touch this stuff. But how do you jump in in 291 00:15:16,840 --> 00:15:21,160 Speaker 1: the face of clear signals from the rates market generally 292 00:15:21,240 --> 00:15:24,520 Speaker 1: sort of depressed economic signals relative to where we were 293 00:15:24,560 --> 00:15:27,440 Speaker 1: at least a year ago, stock price signals that are 294 00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:31,760 Speaker 1: still very very negative, and frankly, the dynamics of oil 295 00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:34,600 Speaker 1: supply and demand are different today than they were ten 296 00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:38,320 Speaker 1: years ago. So it's a tough space. And there's just 297 00:15:38,560 --> 00:15:41,600 Speaker 1: not a lot to suggest that that gap necessarily needs 298 00:15:41,640 --> 00:15:45,640 Speaker 1: to close, because frankly, oil prices keep closing back toward 299 00:15:45,760 --> 00:15:48,840 Speaker 1: energy stocks every time they try to rally, and that's 300 00:15:48,880 --> 00:15:52,800 Speaker 1: just a the fracking boom. I take it. Just the supply, Yeah, 301 00:15:52,840 --> 00:15:54,600 Speaker 1: I mean, if you think about sort of how things 302 00:15:54,600 --> 00:15:57,400 Speaker 1: have changed over the last decade or so, go back 303 00:15:57,400 --> 00:16:00,320 Speaker 1: to two thousand seven, two thousand eight, when oil prices 304 00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:02,320 Speaker 1: were moving towards a hundred and fifty dollars, and the 305 00:16:02,400 --> 00:16:05,200 Speaker 1: sentiment was, We're never going to find supply again. I mean, 306 00:16:05,200 --> 00:16:07,640 Speaker 1: there's just just not enough oil in the world, and 307 00:16:08,520 --> 00:16:10,400 Speaker 1: oh yeah. But the course of the next several years 308 00:16:10,400 --> 00:16:12,280 Speaker 1: we found out, oh lo and behold, there is actually 309 00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:14,800 Speaker 1: plenty of supply. We just needed to use new technologies 310 00:16:14,840 --> 00:16:18,600 Speaker 1: to get to it. That's created this massive downtrend and 311 00:16:18,640 --> 00:16:22,160 Speaker 1: oil prices really since they peaked in two seven and 312 00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:25,960 Speaker 1: then again in and the result of that is just 313 00:16:26,120 --> 00:16:30,200 Speaker 1: this this persistence of supply, or even the perceived persistence 314 00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:33,040 Speaker 1: of supply, con strange your upward potential for price growth, 315 00:16:33,480 --> 00:16:51,880 Speaker 1: and it's feeding through the energy stocks emily. To get 316 00:16:51,880 --> 00:16:54,800 Speaker 1: back to the Fed minutes, there's this weird situation that 317 00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:58,480 Speaker 1: happens where, okay, the trade were escalates a couple of 318 00:16:58,480 --> 00:17:01,520 Speaker 1: weeks ago with President Trump's tweets, and then he follows 319 00:17:01,520 --> 00:17:04,879 Speaker 1: through and raises the tariffs. Then along come the minutes, 320 00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:08,960 Speaker 1: which are reflecting a meeting that occurred before it. So 321 00:17:09,720 --> 00:17:12,760 Speaker 1: yet people still seem to react to them. I mean, 322 00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:17,880 Speaker 1: assuming this is the last best evidence we've gotten from 323 00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:20,480 Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve on their thinking, but at some point 324 00:17:20,520 --> 00:17:23,479 Speaker 1: to people just to ignore them. You've talked to a 325 00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:27,520 Speaker 1: lot of investors after the minutes, presumably they're still reading 326 00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:29,960 Speaker 1: these minutes even though so much has changed since then, 327 00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:32,400 Speaker 1: or did they discount them to some degree. I think 328 00:17:32,400 --> 00:17:33,919 Speaker 1: this is the weird thing, and this is the thing 329 00:17:33,920 --> 00:17:36,119 Speaker 1: that always makes me just sigh and kind of a 330 00:17:36,200 --> 00:17:38,040 Speaker 1: scream sometimes when you look at the minutes, because like 331 00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:41,439 Speaker 1: this is essentially stale news, right, and particularly at this 332 00:17:41,480 --> 00:17:44,320 Speaker 1: point because it's prior to all of the trade stuff 333 00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:46,840 Speaker 1: that happened. So I was actually really interested myself to 334 00:17:46,880 --> 00:17:48,280 Speaker 1: see what the market was going to do to this, 335 00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:50,199 Speaker 1: And it just it's funny because I don't know if 336 00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:53,560 Speaker 1: people actually forget they're still they're so busy reading the 337 00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:56,639 Speaker 1: Fed's ruins sometimes that any signal, like this sort of 338 00:17:56,640 --> 00:17:58,880 Speaker 1: smoke signal is going to tell them what to do. 339 00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:00,879 Speaker 1: But I think the interesting thing that most people are 340 00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:03,320 Speaker 1: trying to pause out of that document is how much 341 00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:06,239 Speaker 1: consensus is there, how firmly held a belief is this 342 00:18:06,400 --> 00:18:08,080 Speaker 1: in the fit, and how difficult it might it be 343 00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:11,320 Speaker 1: to dislodge, Like how much they're looking at the data 344 00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:13,680 Speaker 1: really and what what is their interpretation of the data. 345 00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:15,240 Speaker 1: So people are constant. The thing that I find most 346 00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:17,560 Speaker 1: amusing is looking at how people understand the word few 347 00:18:17,680 --> 00:18:20,560 Speaker 1: versus several versus a number of us some know as 348 00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:23,119 Speaker 1: a measure of how many people on the committee actually 349 00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:25,800 Speaker 1: hold a certain view. So that's that's one of the 350 00:18:25,800 --> 00:18:27,879 Speaker 1: things you talk about stale news. If you looked at 351 00:18:27,880 --> 00:18:31,520 Speaker 1: the staff economic projections in the minutes, they actually talked 352 00:18:31,560 --> 00:18:34,840 Speaker 1: about how trade the U. S and China coming together 353 00:18:35,040 --> 00:18:39,440 Speaker 1: was positive, optimistic. So how that's changed since good minutes 354 00:18:39,480 --> 00:18:42,920 Speaker 1: were actually written. I want to ask you, though, how 355 00:18:43,040 --> 00:18:46,560 Speaker 1: far off does it seem like the bond market is 356 00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:50,240 Speaker 1: from where the Fed actually stands at this point in time. 357 00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:53,040 Speaker 1: This is starting to feel as if that disconnect is 358 00:18:53,080 --> 00:18:56,400 Speaker 1: actually widening again. I mean, we saw earlier this year 359 00:18:56,440 --> 00:18:59,400 Speaker 1: there was, you know, the market was really doubling down 360 00:18:59,440 --> 00:19:01,399 Speaker 1: to say even as many as you know, sort of 361 00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:03,720 Speaker 1: too high, starting to get pricing. We're getting closer to 362 00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:07,439 Speaker 1: that now. I think that the interesting point from what 363 00:19:07,480 --> 00:19:09,600 Speaker 1: the market is pricing in is there is actually now 364 00:19:09,640 --> 00:19:11,720 Speaker 1: still more than one hike pricing by the end of 365 00:19:11,760 --> 00:19:14,680 Speaker 1: the year, just a little more. The Fed. I think 366 00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:17,959 Speaker 1: that after giving that message of transient, they're just sitting 367 00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:20,240 Speaker 1: there with that for the time being, and it seems 368 00:19:20,240 --> 00:19:26,159 Speaker 1: as if that that conviction among policymakers is really at 369 00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:29,720 Speaker 1: odds with the markets movements lately. Um But it's hard 370 00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:31,639 Speaker 1: to see. I mean as as you, Jina, you were 371 00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:35,560 Speaker 1: discussing before, you know, the data are still reasonably strong. 372 00:19:35,600 --> 00:19:39,000 Speaker 1: There's there's actually looking at it objectively from a dispassionate viewpoint, 373 00:19:39,040 --> 00:19:41,320 Speaker 1: it's hard to see whether the FED would find a 374 00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:44,480 Speaker 1: decent case to cut rates at this point. And now 375 00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:46,680 Speaker 1: that they're starting up their inflation review, this is going 376 00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:49,639 Speaker 1: to become a really interesting topic to follow over the 377 00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:51,520 Speaker 1: next couple of months because they're really going to have 378 00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:54,280 Speaker 1: to look at what other kinds of strategies they might 379 00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:57,480 Speaker 1: take to try and meet their mandate. Now, Gina, you 380 00:19:57,520 --> 00:20:00,560 Speaker 1: have a lot of letters after your name, c IF, A, 381 00:20:01,119 --> 00:20:04,440 Speaker 1: c MT. I also have three names. I'm just trying 382 00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:09,000 Speaker 1: to extend their business parts as continued on the confusion 383 00:20:09,760 --> 00:20:12,879 Speaker 1: part of the game here. So I was I was 384 00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:16,600 Speaker 1: curious to see your technicals, putting your CMT head on 385 00:20:17,040 --> 00:20:21,679 Speaker 1: Chartered Market Technician and and looking at the technicals. UM, 386 00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:24,880 Speaker 1: so walk us through two things. I'm curious a sort 387 00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:28,600 Speaker 1: of what levels you're looking at but also is it 388 00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:32,840 Speaker 1: the time, uh right now where technicals kind of take 389 00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:35,560 Speaker 1: a backseat to the fact that everyone's waiting for the 390 00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:38,000 Speaker 1: next headline, waiting for the next tweet. You know, are 391 00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:41,280 Speaker 1: there times when you sort of uh discount technicals to 392 00:20:41,320 --> 00:20:43,880 Speaker 1: some degree and don't give them as much weight as 393 00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:45,919 Speaker 1: you normally would, And are we in a period like 394 00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:49,800 Speaker 1: that now? I never discount technicals. I am a technician. 395 00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:53,560 Speaker 1: I think they're actually always valuable at every market stage, 396 00:20:54,200 --> 00:20:57,520 Speaker 1: and they're valuable in different ways. They give you different signals, 397 00:20:57,560 --> 00:21:00,320 Speaker 1: either they're confirming or not confirming your fund to until 398 00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:02,000 Speaker 1: case that gives you a reason to go back and 399 00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:05,720 Speaker 1: look at the fundamental case. Nonetheless, I think you know 400 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:08,680 Speaker 1: right now what the technicals are saying is near term, 401 00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:11,120 Speaker 1: there's just not a lot of reason for optimism. It's 402 00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:17,119 Speaker 1: still markets. You know, maybe testing the early May lows, 403 00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:22,040 Speaker 1: which were support levels created by resistance points that we 404 00:21:22,119 --> 00:21:25,119 Speaker 1: had matched on the SMP five hundred back in the 405 00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:29,000 Speaker 1: October attempted an advance, November attempt at advance, and then 406 00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:32,240 Speaker 1: during the rise earlier this year, we sort of got 407 00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:37,120 Speaker 1: stuck in this level in the SMP fire. We're back 408 00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:41,840 Speaker 1: there again. If we can hold these levels. Fantastic stocks 409 00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:45,560 Speaker 1: are probably in pretty good shape, but it's really questionable 410 00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:49,120 Speaker 1: because you're getting breakdowns, some small capture getting breakdown some semiconductors, 411 00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:51,720 Speaker 1: you're getting breakdowns and transportation stocks. Just the near term 412 00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:55,040 Speaker 1: weakness is evident. Longer term, is there any evidence of 413 00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:58,640 Speaker 1: the bull market is over? No? Right? I mean, even 414 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:01,680 Speaker 1: line last year only confirmed that the bowl trend is 415 00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:04,760 Speaker 1: still intact because it bottomed right at major support lines 416 00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:10,560 Speaker 1: that have existed since two thousand nine. I use a 417 00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:13,000 Speaker 1: fifty week a lot, but that really defines sort of 418 00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:16,560 Speaker 1: shorter term bowl trends and bear trends. The fifty week 419 00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:19,000 Speaker 1: moving average on the SMP five hundreds right around twenty 420 00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:23,160 Speaker 1: seven seventy seven seventy six right now, Uh that if 421 00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:25,560 Speaker 1: we crossed through the fifty week, then you're most likely 422 00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:28,080 Speaker 1: going to continue to go lower and see a fifteen 423 00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:32,160 Speaker 1: correction again. But you have to go all the way 424 00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:35,199 Speaker 1: down into the twenty three hundreds to really eliminate the 425 00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:39,159 Speaker 1: long term bowl trend. So, just thinking perspective wise, you 426 00:22:39,240 --> 00:22:43,200 Speaker 1: could easily have another recession with the twenty correction and 427 00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:47,000 Speaker 1: stocks and you're still in a long term secular bowl market, right, 428 00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:50,760 Speaker 1: short term, you're absolutely in another bearish condition like we 429 00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:54,280 Speaker 1: were in eighteen. But you've got to have a significant 430 00:22:54,280 --> 00:22:57,240 Speaker 1: dismantling of trend in order to eliminate the overall bowl 431 00:22:57,280 --> 00:22:59,840 Speaker 1: trend that's been in place for now more than ten years. 432 00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:03,280 Speaker 1: How about my personal favorite shampoo, head and shoulders. A 433 00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:05,000 Speaker 1: lot of people are talking about a head and shoulders, 434 00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:12,200 Speaker 1: are talking about the size of the neckline, right I am. 435 00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:16,359 Speaker 1: But the other the really strong fundamental like tenant of 436 00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:19,320 Speaker 1: technical analysis is you never call a pattern before it 437 00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:24,280 Speaker 1: actually occurs. And that's what people are at risk of doing. Um, 438 00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:26,440 Speaker 1: I think you know, to call this a head and shoulders, 439 00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:29,160 Speaker 1: you have to have a significant breakdown beneath the neckline. 440 00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:32,720 Speaker 1: I haven't had that yet. To call it a triple top, 441 00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:36,239 Speaker 1: you've got to have a similar breakdown. So I you know, 442 00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:40,280 Speaker 1: just I like to follow the rules, despite the fact 443 00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:44,959 Speaker 1: that I'm from Florida or Florida. The rules of technical 444 00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:47,760 Speaker 1: analysis say, don't get hasty to call a pattern before 445 00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:49,720 Speaker 1: it actually occurs. All right, Well, there's one role in 446 00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:51,800 Speaker 1: this podcast, and it's if you show up. You have 447 00:23:51,880 --> 00:23:55,040 Speaker 1: to have a crazy thing, the craziest thing you've seen 448 00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:58,560 Speaker 1: in markets this week? So Emily is looking nervous. I 449 00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:03,800 Speaker 1: don't think I don't and she prepared, hang on, hang on, 450 00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:06,640 Speaker 1: you have little faith. Actually I tried here. I don't 451 00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:07,879 Speaker 1: want to go to last because then you're going to 452 00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:09,200 Speaker 1: give you a great ones and then I'm going to 453 00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:13,639 Speaker 1: kind of limp in with So yeah, I'll go first. Okay, 454 00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:15,520 Speaker 1: this is this is a royalties thing, so it's not 455 00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:17,640 Speaker 1: actually our markets thing, for say, but it's about money, 456 00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:21,040 Speaker 1: so it's close all out. But I was a fan 457 00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:23,480 Speaker 1: of The Verve back in the nineties. So there's this song, 458 00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:26,600 Speaker 1: Bitter Sweet Symphony, if anyone knows that I was very 459 00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:29,840 Speaker 1: fond of. It has this lovely string sort of intro 460 00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:33,639 Speaker 1: to it. And it turns out that Richard Ashcroft, the 461 00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:35,920 Speaker 1: lead singer of The Verve, lost the royalties to that 462 00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:39,199 Speaker 1: song because he sam put a little too much of 463 00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:41,800 Speaker 1: a Stone song to do it, and so the Stones 464 00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:43,399 Speaker 1: ended up getting all the royaltiest at that time, it 465 00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:46,000 Speaker 1: was huge. That album was huge, um, and they just 466 00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:50,480 Speaker 1: recently gave them back. So so they petitioned for Mick 467 00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:54,800 Speaker 1: Jagger to handback the royalties and without hesitation, apparently said yeah, 468 00:24:54,840 --> 00:25:02,560 Speaker 1: just how did they're just out of their good nature. Well, 469 00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:06,240 Speaker 1: I'm suspecting they may not have needed it. I thought 470 00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:07,960 Speaker 1: you're gonna go Rick Astley there. I thought I was 471 00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:11,640 Speaker 1: getting Rick rolled. For a minute, I'm trying to think 472 00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:16,040 Speaker 1: of the fact that about him. Next alright, Gina Martin Adams. Yeah, 473 00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:19,120 Speaker 1: so I'm afraid I'm going to disappoint everyone because mine 474 00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:23,080 Speaker 1: is incredibly obvious. But it just has to be noted 475 00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:27,520 Speaker 1: that we had a video go viral out of China 476 00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:32,080 Speaker 1: with a giant gold fist and a nationalist, populist message 477 00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:35,320 Speaker 1: that suggests like the Soviet Union is rising again, except 478 00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:37,800 Speaker 1: for it's in China. I see that video and I'm 479 00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:40,120 Speaker 1: just blown away. If you haven't seen it, you need 480 00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:42,720 Speaker 1: to go out and search the Chinese trade war fight song. 481 00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:46,040 Speaker 1: It's it's just amazing and really, you know, and then 482 00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:50,000 Speaker 1: you have all the just the yamp up in uh 483 00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:55,440 Speaker 1: sort of this nationalistic sort of message coming out of China. 484 00:25:55,520 --> 00:25:59,480 Speaker 1: Speak has been extraordinarily aggressively. They're not back and down, 485 00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:02,200 Speaker 1: you know. Also tells me this is a lot about tech. 486 00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:03,520 Speaker 1: This is not And then I go back to what 487 00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:06,520 Speaker 1: I said at the beginning. Everybody's focused on trade. It 488 00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:09,719 Speaker 1: is not about trade. It's about tech and who's going 489 00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:12,680 Speaker 1: to be the global leader in technology development and advancement 490 00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:16,040 Speaker 1: and dissemination around the world over the next several decades. 491 00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:18,439 Speaker 1: So China is not backing down because they're taking this 492 00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:21,840 Speaker 1: really seriously. Sarah, want to bring ye back on to singing. 493 00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:25,359 Speaker 1: You can sing song for US translator. He's sang the 494 00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:28,760 Speaker 1: US bond Markets theme song last week, so pretty impressive. 495 00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:31,959 Speaker 1: Also last week I have to bring us an update 496 00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:34,400 Speaker 1: just because last week, for those of you who didn't 497 00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:38,439 Speaker 1: tune in, we talked about how Steve Minusian's dad Um 498 00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:43,000 Speaker 1: actually bought a ninety over ninety million dollar bunny rabbit. 499 00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:45,719 Speaker 1: It was an art piece UM on the behalf of 500 00:26:45,760 --> 00:26:48,200 Speaker 1: someone and now we know that it was on behalf 501 00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:52,199 Speaker 1: of point seventy two Steve Colin Um. So he is 502 00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:56,600 Speaker 1: now I think I can't believe we didn't guess that. Yeah, yeah, 503 00:26:56,680 --> 00:27:00,160 Speaker 1: he is now the owner of a beloved Oh we're 504 00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:04,960 Speaker 1: ninety million dollars silver inflatable bunny rabbit. Pretty amazing. Um. 505 00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:07,199 Speaker 1: But another one that I'll bring forwards this week that 506 00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:10,320 Speaker 1: I guess two is kind of obvious, Tesla. I mean, 507 00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:14,320 Speaker 1: we have analysts coming out one after another, going as 508 00:27:14,320 --> 00:27:17,240 Speaker 1: far as saying that the worst case scenario, we could 509 00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:20,160 Speaker 1: see Tesla stock fall down to ten dollars a share, 510 00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:22,840 Speaker 1: and we did see Tesla fall below two hundred dollars 511 00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:24,560 Speaker 1: a share, which we haven't seen in quite a while. 512 00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:27,480 Speaker 1: So pretty amazing. I've got to say it is that 513 00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:29,800 Speaker 1: is a soap opera for the ages. I think, yes, 514 00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:33,600 Speaker 1: all right, I'll give you mine. Uh now, Sarah, it 515 00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:35,960 Speaker 1: was a pretty ugly day in the stock market on Thursday. 516 00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:39,800 Speaker 1: You wouldn't expect to see a lot of companies rising. 517 00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:41,720 Speaker 1: What if I told you there was a stock that 518 00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:49,879 Speaker 1: rose thousand and nine on Thursday, A penny's This is 519 00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:52,960 Speaker 1: why I love the penny stocks there. Uh so, Rhino 520 00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:57,399 Speaker 1: International Corp. It's a Chinese company. Sounds legit right, designs, manufacturers, 521 00:27:57,720 --> 00:28:03,400 Speaker 1: installs and services, proprietary and hattented wastewater treatment, desulfurization equipment 522 00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:06,480 Speaker 1: and YadA, YadA, YadA. Anyway, Yes, it rose to one 523 00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:11,880 Speaker 1: penny a true penny stock, from one a penny um by. 524 00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:14,800 Speaker 1: By my math, it required about seven hundred bucks to 525 00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:17,320 Speaker 1: do this. The funny thing is the market cap of 526 00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:19,119 Speaker 1: the company yesterday it was only like two d and 527 00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:27,159 Speaker 1: sixty eight dollars period, not millions. It's amazing, so um 528 00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:31,480 Speaker 1: congratulations to all the shareholders of Rhino International. Core about there. Uh. 529 00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:33,199 Speaker 1: I try to find out more about the company, but 530 00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:36,920 Speaker 1: when you click on their website are web security software 531 00:28:36,920 --> 00:28:40,680 Speaker 1: prevented me from saying, I think that's how's you all 532 00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:43,720 Speaker 1: you need to know about company? But with that said, 533 00:28:43,760 --> 00:28:46,080 Speaker 1: Gina Martin Adams, Emily Barrett, thank you so much for 534 00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:48,440 Speaker 1: coming on the show today. We really enjoyed it. Thank you, 535 00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:57,560 Speaker 1: Thank you. What Goes Up. We'll be back next week. 536 00:28:57,720 --> 00:29:00,000 Speaker 1: Until then, you can find us on the Bloomberg Terminal 537 00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:04,040 Speaker 1: website and app, or wherever you get your podcasts. We'd 538 00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:05,960 Speaker 1: love it if you took the time to rate interview 539 00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:08,840 Speaker 1: the show so more listeners can find us, and you 540 00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:12,320 Speaker 1: can find us on Twitter. Follow me at at Sarah pontzat, 541 00:29:12,720 --> 00:29:16,120 Speaker 1: Mike Is at reg Anonymous. Our guest, Pina Martin Adams 542 00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:19,400 Speaker 1: is at Gina Martin Adams, and Emily Barrett is at 543 00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:23,240 Speaker 1: Not That ECB. What Goes Up is produced by topor Foreheads. 544 00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:26,280 Speaker 1: The head of blooperg podcast is Francesca Levi. See you 545 00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:26,760 Speaker 1: next time.