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Speaker 1: Welcome to Zero. I am Aksha Trati. This week Bill Gates,

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Speaker 1: Nuclear Power and Donald Trump. Hi atua hi miily.

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Speaker 2: I am not Bill Gates.

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Speaker 1: I can tell it's a bummer.

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Speaker 2: I am the producer of Zero. We had a busy

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Speaker 2: couple of days and I thought listeners might want to

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Speaker 2: know that this conversation with Bill Gates was recorded in

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Speaker 2: Stratford upon Avon, of all places, where we were in

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Speaker 2: town to see the opening night of a new play

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Speaker 2: about climate change put on by the Royal Shakespeare Company.

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Speaker 1: And the play is called Kyoto, and it is a

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Speaker 1: play about international climate negotiations. Things that I've attended. They

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Speaker 1: have drama, but I never thought somebody could make a

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Speaker 1: play about it. So I was very excited to see

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Speaker 1: what they've done, and we'll be bringing a review very soon.

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Speaker 2: But you were also very excited to talk to Bill Gates,

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Speaker 2: so excited that we missed the first ten minutes of

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Speaker 2: the play while the kind folks at the Royal Shakespeare

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Speaker 2: Company found a quiet place to record a conversation with Bill.

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Speaker 2: Why were you so excited to talk to him?

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Speaker 1: Bill Gates isn't just one of the richest people on

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Speaker 1: the planet. He's also somebody who takes climate change quite seriously.

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Speaker 1: He's been thinking about it for nearly two decades, and

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Speaker 1: he's investing serious sums of money in technology development. And

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Speaker 1: so given we're in the hottest year, given climate technologies

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Speaker 1: aren't scaling as quickly as we would want them to,

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Speaker 1: it's always nice to hear how he's thinking about this moment,

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Speaker 1: both from a technology perspective and how the politics of

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Speaker 1: this year, where there are so many elections happening, will

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Speaker 1: shape the future.

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Speaker 2: And he's been in the news the last couple of

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Speaker 2: weeks because of a new nuclear plant that he broke

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Speaker 2: ground in in Camera, Wyoming. I was interested in this

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Speaker 2: because it's a tiny historical town population less than three

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Speaker 2: thousand people. The coal plant there is due to close

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Speaker 2: in twenty thirty six. I've been reading about it and

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Speaker 2: they're very excited that Bill Gates is coming to open

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Speaker 2: this new nuclear plant with his company, Terra Power. But

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Speaker 2: it's also notable because of the design of the plant.

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Speaker 1: Right, that's right. Among the very first investments that Bill

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Speaker 1: Gates made as he got into investing in climate was

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Speaker 1: founding this company called Terra Power. It was founded in

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Speaker 1: two thousand and eight and His goal was to try

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Speaker 1: and develop a new type of reactor to overcome the

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Speaker 1: problems of the previous generation of reactors that used water

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Speaker 1: as a way to cool and that required very complex

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Speaker 1: engineering to try and deal with what happens to water

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Speaker 1: when you heat it in an enclosed space. There's a

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Speaker 1: lot of heat and a lot of pressure involved, and

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Speaker 1: to try and deal with the safety issues that came along.

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Speaker 1: The design of previous reactors just became more and more complex.

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Speaker 2: So what's the approach that this plant is taking. Instead

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Speaker 2: of using water.

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Speaker 1: In this case, they use sodium, which means that the

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Speaker 1: engineering challenge becomes easier to deal with. And if he's

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Speaker 1: able to build many, many of the sodium reactors, he'll

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Speaker 1: also be able to make them more cheaply than the

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Speaker 1: current class of reactors. So, in an ideal world, if

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Speaker 1: Terra Power succeeds, nuclear power could become cheaper and safer,

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Speaker 1: and that would be a boost for the climate technology

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Speaker 1: set that we have.

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Speaker 2: This is a long time coming for Bill Gates and

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Speaker 2: for terror Power, isn't it.

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Speaker 1: Very much so? Founded in two thousand and eight? And

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Speaker 1: if all the things go as he hopes they would,

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Speaker 1: the plant won't be ready until twenty thirty. Initially, they

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Speaker 1: couldn't get the regulatory approvals they wanted in the US,

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Speaker 1: so they started exploring an option to building China. Then

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Speaker 1: under the previous Donald Trump administration, the US government blocked

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Speaker 1: that from happening because they didn't want technology transferred to

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Speaker 1: happen to China, and so then they started exploring an

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Speaker 1: option to do it in the US. And now they

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Speaker 1: do have a site, but they still do not have

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Speaker 1: the regulatory approvals needed to build that plant.

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Speaker 2: So it's an exciting moment for Bill Gates and something

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Speaker 2: that you wanted to talk to him about. You said,

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Speaker 2: he is one of the few billionaires who's really engaged

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Speaker 2: with questions about climate change. Where did these plans with

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Speaker 2: teara power and nuclear energy fit into his broader thinking

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Speaker 2: about the energy transition?

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Speaker 1: So Bill Gates's one line answer to any big problem

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Speaker 1: is innovation, and he's been thinking a lot about how

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Speaker 1: bringing new technologies to bear on the problem will make

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Speaker 1: it easier to solve those problems. He also acknowledges that's

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Speaker 1: not the only route. We do need a lot of policies, etc.

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Speaker 1: But his focus is very much on creating the solution

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Speaker 1: set we need, and that's what he's doing with Breakthrough

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Speaker 1: Energy Ventures, which now has funds that are more than

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Speaker 1: three billion dollars worth that are all focused on investing

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Speaker 1: in climate technologies.

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Speaker 2: And we'll be going to the Breakthrough Energy Summit soon

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Speaker 2: and recording with some of those companies and bringing zero

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Speaker 2: listeners those conversations later this summer. But first let's hear

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Speaker 2: your conversation with Bill Gates.

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Speaker 1: I'm speaking to you just days after Terra Power broke

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Speaker 1: ground for a new nuclear power plant in Wyoming. You've

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Speaker 1: said over the years that nuclear fission, the power generated

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Speaker 1: from splitting atoms, has to be a part of the

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Speaker 1: clean energy mix. And the work you've put into Terra

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Speaker 1: Power has been to overcome the challenges of old reactors,

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Speaker 1: both on cost and on safety. You've invested a billion dollars.

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Speaker 1: You say you will invest billions more as needed. Did

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Speaker 1: you think it would take so long?

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Speaker 3: Well, I am a patient investor, and Boss lov Smiel

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Speaker 3: has said that people who come from the Digital revolution

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Speaker 3: software industry are kind of spoiled and we don't understand

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Speaker 3: the practicalities, and he's right. It's been a great learning curve.

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Speaker 3: It's exciting that the perseverance in the case that tear

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Speaker 3: powers are now paid off in getting that first plant started,

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Speaker 3: some things you really have to step back and start

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Speaker 3: with a new approach. And in that case, if you

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Speaker 3: cool with sodium versus water, you avoid high pressure, you

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Speaker 3: avoid all the complexity that third generation reactors have for

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Speaker 3: the after heat problem, and so it really gives you

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Speaker 3: the ability to generate competitive election Christy, which unfortunately the

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Speaker 3: third generation has not achieved that. And you know, neither

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Speaker 3: investors nor utilities are enthused about third generation reactors for

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Speaker 3: purely economic reasons. So, you know, adding fission and later

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Speaker 3: adding fusion to the mix of electricity generation to compliment

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Speaker 3: you know, wind and solar, which we love and we,

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Speaker 3: like everyone in the clean energy space, want to see

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Speaker 3: the acceleration of those installations, which you know we're falling

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Speaker 3: behind our ambitious goals there, but nuclear would help a

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Speaker 3: lot in terms of the need for reliability.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and the challenge that we have is we have

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Speaker 1: to reach net zero as soon as possible, ideally by

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Speaker 1: twenty fifty. Now, if this plant is running in twenty

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Speaker 1: thirty and is deemed a success, do you think it'll

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Speaker 1: leave enough time to build more plants like it around

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Speaker 1: the world, not just in the US, not just overcome

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Speaker 1: all the regulations that need to be overcome in other

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Speaker 1: countries and make a meaningful difference in reducing emissions.

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Speaker 3: The reason I invested over a billion and why I'll

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Speaker 3: be investing even more. You know, I didn't do it

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Speaker 3: because it's some great way of making money. Although we succeed,

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Speaker 3: you know, the investors will get a return. We're already

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Speaker 3: looking at many international partnerships South Korea, Japan, UK, France.

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Speaker 3: You know, they're all very excited. They'll come in and

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Speaker 3: shadow the NRC regulators as they look through this thing.

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Speaker 3: And so yes, if we don't build one hundred, we

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Speaker 3: won't make significant contribution to climate. So that's you know,

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Speaker 3: the whole point. I'd also love over time to see

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Speaker 3: those reactors able to help electrify Africa, where the shortage

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Speaker 3: of electricity there is super painful in terms of their

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Speaker 3: need for economic development. So it's ambitious. But you know,

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Speaker 3: because we have this one standard design, then we use

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Speaker 3: digital design, it should be very different than previous reactors.

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Speaker 1: Now, coming to the summit, you've been investing in climate

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Speaker 1: technologies for nearly two decades now and Since you've built

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Speaker 1: breakthrough energy ventures, you've been able to scale the amounts

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Speaker 1: you are able to invest in, scale the number of

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Speaker 1: startups you're able to invest in. But as you sit

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Speaker 1: here in twenty twenty four and look across the landscape

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Speaker 1: of energy transition sectors, what types of technologies are getting

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Speaker 1: too much investment and what types of technologies are getting

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Speaker 1: too little?

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Speaker 3: Well, you know, electricity is plinal to this thing, and

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Speaker 3: you know, so we have like in the grid, we

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Speaker 3: have a thing called TS conductor that you just change

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Speaker 3: the wires and you can run twice as much electricity

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Speaker 3: through them. You know, that's kind of thing I had.

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Speaker 3: I was kind of amazed. You really can do that,

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Speaker 3: and you know they're ramping up their capacity in order

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Speaker 3: to do that. You know, some people might say we

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Speaker 3: have too many fusion companies. We have about sixteen, and

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Speaker 3: Breakthroughs got a relationship with five of them. But given

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Speaker 3: the scientific uncertainties and challenges involved, I don't think that's

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Speaker 3: too many. I think it's amazing that private investors are

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Speaker 3: coming in like that. You know, we started with just

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Speaker 3: incredible individual investors who I talk to, and to raise

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Speaker 3: the beeB one money. We've added institutional investors that actually

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Speaker 3: are helping us. So people like Harvard and Tamassic are

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Speaker 3: you know, as these things are maturing, they're huge help

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Speaker 3: to us. And even though you know, some risk capital

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Speaker 3: has been affected over the last year as the macroeconomic

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Speaker 3: policy has changed in the area of claimant, partly because

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Speaker 3: we have the tech investors who care about these issues,

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Speaker 3: we're not seen systemically a problem and raising capital. You know,

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Speaker 3: we have sectors like you know, meat where okay, they've

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Speaker 3: had challenges and so now we have to strengthen those

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Speaker 3: strategies and get a next generation of approaches there. But

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Speaker 3: you know, the the you know, it's it's the projects

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Speaker 3: that we're rolling out that is, we've gotten companies to

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Speaker 3: this maturity that they really just want to build things,

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Speaker 3: and yet they're not ready for like a brook Field

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Speaker 3: where you know, you know exactly who the buyer is

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Speaker 3: and exactly what the efficiency is. You know, we have

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Speaker 3: to build probably the first ten plants or so before

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Speaker 3: you get to that. Hey, it's just normal finance people

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Speaker 3: who are running a spreadsheet on this thing, so that

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Speaker 3: that value of works in the life app really well, Okay,

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Speaker 3: let's make steal, Let's make cement, let's go do this.

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Speaker 3: That's partly the meetings, you know, to really get those

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Speaker 3: partnerships accelerated, and many of which depend on government policies.

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Speaker 3: That'll be one of the metrics we have for how

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Speaker 3: successful the meeting is.

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Speaker 1: Now moving on to AI, I'm going to give you

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Speaker 1: a little bit of a preamble. So big companies have

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Speaker 1: to be a part of the climate solution. Tech companies

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Speaker 1: such as the one you found at Microsoft have taken

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Speaker 1: the lead to show how to set ambitious goals, layout

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Speaker 1: clear plans, and hopefully meet them. But most of these

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Speaker 1: tech companies have now embraced the race for artificial intelligence,

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Speaker 1: and that means almost all of them are falling behind

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Speaker 1: on their emissions goals. So Microsoft wants to be common

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Speaker 1: negative by twenty thirty, but instead last year it's emissions

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Speaker 1: with thirty percent higher than in twenty twenty, and that's

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Speaker 1: mostly down to the emissions from building data centers, not

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Speaker 1: really from its energy use, because Microsoft says it matches

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Speaker 1: all of its energy with renewables. So if the richest

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Speaker 1: companies with the most thoughtful climate plans aren't able to

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Speaker 1: keep up with reducing emissions in the short term and

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Speaker 1: most importantly, don't appear confident that they will meet end

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Speaker 1: of the decades goals. That's what Brad Smith when we

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Speaker 1: spoke to him, the President told us, how do you

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Speaker 1: think big companies can be a part of solution to

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Speaker 1: tackle climate change.

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Speaker 3: Well, the whole breakthrough energy approach is that you stimulate innovation.

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Speaker 3: You get the brightest minds all over the world, first

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Speaker 3: at the lab level and then at the early project

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Speaker 3: level to push forward approaches that can achieve no green premium,

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Speaker 3: no extra cost for the output, whether that's electricity or

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Speaker 3: steel or cement. And we have our big event next

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Speaker 3: week in London where people see what I think can

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Speaker 3: be amazing progress in all these areas of emission. The

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Speaker 3: electricity is fundamental because not only is it a big

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Speaker 3: part of present emissions, by electrification is how you take

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Speaker 3: passenger cars and buses and drop the emissions to zero.

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Speaker 3: And so you're going to more than double your electricity demand.

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Speaker 3: And as you say, the demand for data centers driven

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Speaker 3: by AI type execution adds to that load pattern. Now,

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Speaker 3: those data centers, because of optic fiber connection, can be

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Speaker 3: located in many places around the world, but there's a

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Speaker 3: lot of reasons. Those companies want to put a lot

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Speaker 3: of their data centers if they can access the green

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Speaker 3: electricity in the United States, and so you'll see them

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Speaker 3: help push forward all these technologies, you know, whether it's

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Speaker 3: googleedd a purchasing agreement with Fervo for that geothermal energy,

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Speaker 3: which was great to see you Microsoft's you know, huge

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Speaker 3: leader in this, and also making sure the accounting is

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Speaker 3: done in a correct way, which is harder than you

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Speaker 3: might think, but you know that the increased maturity there

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Speaker 3: is fantastic. They've been talking with CFS even about a

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Speaker 3: power agreement with them, you know, terror powers meeting both

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Speaker 3: of the companies in individually, and now there's this clean

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Speaker 3: buyers group that's come together, which was a great development

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Speaker 3: and a really good team running that group. So it's

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Speaker 3: fantastic the tech companies primarily for electricity, but also for

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Speaker 3: their air travel, their steel, their cement, will be buyers

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Speaker 3: willing to pay a green premium and help therefore scale

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Speaker 3: the technologies up.

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Speaker 1: So one of the things that President Bradsmith told us

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Speaker 1: was Microsoft things, the contribution that AI will make to

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Speaker 1: humanity is going to outweigh the emissions that may come

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Speaker 1: from it from the development, at least in the short term.

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Speaker 1: But if we leave large humanity question apart, do you

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Speaker 1: see any skepticism on AI AI's offer right now and

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Speaker 1: especially as it comes to helping us on the climate problem.

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Speaker 3: Well, AI, whether it's health or education or climate science

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Speaker 3: things is extremely promising. You know, it's so promising people

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Speaker 3: worry about. Wow, that can provide you know, such rapid

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Speaker 3: productivity advances that we haven't haven't seen in the past.

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Speaker 3: But you know, you saw like this Aurora model that

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Speaker 3: Microsoft announced for weather prediction, and you know, Gates Foundation

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Speaker 3: will take tools like that so that small hold of

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Speaker 3: farmers understand and when to plant, which is more challenging

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Speaker 3: in the face of climate providing better seeds. So climate adaptation,

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Speaker 3: which doesn't get enough visibility, you know, will benefit just

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Speaker 3: like climate mitigation from these AI tools. You know, the

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Speaker 3: net balance in terms of climate is that AI will

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Speaker 3: be a very good thing, whether it's the material science

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Speaker 3: part of the thing or managing plasmas and fusion reactors,

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Speaker 3: it's going to accelerate the innovation and even like how

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Speaker 3: do why do props guides not last over time? How

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Speaker 3: do we make you know, solar panels even cheaper and

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Speaker 3: higher productivity than we have today. So AI, you know

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Speaker 3: that extra five percent of demand is not the thing

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Speaker 3: that prevents our climate goals. You know, I certainly wouldn't

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Speaker 3: want to take a out of this picture. It makes

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Speaker 3: me more optimistic. But you know the main thing that

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Speaker 3: makes me optimistic is that as we went from twenty fifteen,

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Speaker 3: where green tech of fashion and the bench model didn't

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Speaker 3: look like it could even work in this space, you know,

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Speaker 3: here we are with over one hundred companies and the

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Speaker 3: attendance by in our summit next week by big companies

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Speaker 3: who want to partner with these companies, governments who want

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Speaker 3: to get their policy right. It's way beyond what I expected.

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Speaker 3: And so it doesn't say we'll hit our ambitious goals,

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Speaker 3: but it says we'll be able to come close, which

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Speaker 3: in twenty fifteen I wasn't even sure I'd be able

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Speaker 3: to say that.

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Speaker 1: After the break, I asked Bill Gates what happens if

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump is elected president again? And by the way,

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Speaker 1: if you've been enjoying this episode, please take a moment

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Speaker 1: to rate and review the show on Spotify or Apple.

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Speaker 1: It helps other listeners find it.

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Speaker 2: Actually, before we get back to your conversation with Bill Gates.

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Speaker 2: I thought it might be helpful to remind listeners of

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Speaker 2: the last time he was on the podcast, which was

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Speaker 2: two years ago, when you spoke to him about the

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Speaker 2: Inflation Reduction Act. Something that's kind of coming full circle

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Speaker 2: because if Donald Trump is elected, he has indicated that

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Speaker 2: he will be interested in dismantling the IRA.

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Speaker 1: Yes, that's right. When he spoke to him in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty two, he told us about his involvement among so

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Speaker 1: many other people who were trying to lobby the politicians

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Speaker 1: to support the Inflation Reduction Act. It did go through.

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Speaker 1: It became the largest climate bill that the US has passed,

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Speaker 1: and it has already unlocked billions of dollars of investment

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Speaker 1: in climate technologies. But if there is a change in

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Speaker 1: the administration, there is a real risk that many of

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Speaker 1: the remaining billions of dollars that are set to come

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Speaker 1: into climate technologies may never get invested.

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Speaker 2: So Bill Gates was among the billionaires lobbying Joe Biden

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Speaker 2: to enact i'm A policy. But we've also seen some

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Speaker 2: recent reporting from Bloomberg about billionaires supporting Trump because they

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Speaker 2: like the sound of the tax cuts he's promising in

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Speaker 2: the regulations he's promising to dismantle.

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Speaker 1: That's right. My colleagues Amanda Gordon and Srida Natrajan wrote

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Speaker 1: a story just after Donald Trump was convicted in a

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Speaker 1: New York court about some Wall Street billionaires who are

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Speaker 1: now becoming Trump supporters and weren't in the past. And

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Speaker 1: it's about money, it's about taxes, it's about dismantling regulations.

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Speaker 1: And they named a few people in the story, such

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Speaker 1: as Howard Lutnik, ahmid Malik, and the co founder of Blackstone,

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Speaker 1: Stephen Schwartzman.

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Speaker 2: So let's hear what Bill Gates had to say about

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Speaker 2: the election.

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Speaker 1: So, now, private investments are key to making technology scale,

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Speaker 1: but so are government policies. Now, there are many many

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Speaker 1: elections around the world this year. Many have happened, many

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Speaker 1: will happen, and we are bound to see swings, some

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Speaker 1: steps forward, some steps backward. But the election that it

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Speaker 1: will make the biggest difference to the global climate, right

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Speaker 1: is the US election. Now, I'm not going to ask

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Speaker 1: you to make a prediction, but the stakes are quite

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Speaker 1: clear between the two parties. If anything, Donald Trump increasingly

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Speaker 1: is making it clear that he wants to roll back

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Speaker 1: a lot of climate policies and promote the fuel industry.

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Speaker 1: So how should climate startups prepare if Trump is elected.

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Speaker 3: It's hard to predict US politics, both in terms of

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Speaker 3: you know, who's going to win and how dramatic the

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Speaker 3: changes might be. You know, if Trump is elected, we

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Speaker 3: may see more change and therefore the whole business environment

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Speaker 3: you may have to deal with a lot of uncertainty.

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Speaker 3: And you know, I do think that as we've taken

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Speaker 3: these projects, and you know, for example, Form you know

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Speaker 3: is building their factory in West Virginia, talked about you know,

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Speaker 3: terror Powers building a plant Wyoming. You know, we have

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Speaker 3: you know, Lux Walls building in Michigan. We have lots

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Speaker 3: of companies like Electra that are going down to Texas.

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Speaker 3: Texas actually may have the most of these projects. So

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Speaker 3: as you actually start the projects, create the jobs around

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Speaker 3: the projects, you know, the normal political process which is

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Speaker 3: not just a single individual, but it's politicians seeing the

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Speaker 3: jobs in their communities. You know, I'm hopeful that the

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Speaker 3: degree of change can be modest. You know, the idea

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Speaker 3: of the US being more energy secure and US innovation

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Speaker 3: allowing us to export, you know, those things are still

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Speaker 3: somewhat by partisan in nature, and look, this cause is

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Speaker 3: too important to you know, not deal with whatever setbacks

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Speaker 3: take place. You know, I think voters who care about

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Speaker 3: climate will tend to vote a certain way. But I've

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Speaker 3: said that trying to make these issues as bipartisan as

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Speaker 3: possible is super important. The innovation framework helps a lot,

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Speaker 3: because if you're paying huge green premiums, then some voters

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Speaker 3: are really against that, either because they don't think they

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Speaker 3: should be the one to pay, or they don't think

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Speaker 3: anyone should pay. It's a problem even in Europe, which

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Speaker 3: are the most climate committed voter bases. Even there, if

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Speaker 3: you push too hard on you must buy an electric

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Speaker 3: key pump, or we're going to end gasoline cars even there.

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Speaker 3: Unless we innovate, we're going to push beyond what voters

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Speaker 3: are willing to do. And so the basic theory of

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Speaker 3: breakthrough energy, which is make this stuff not cost more,

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Speaker 3: although between here and there we need a lot of

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Speaker 3: risk taking and government help. I'd say that theory is

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Speaker 3: stronger today because of the political situation we face in

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Speaker 3: many many countries than ever before. And so thank goodness,

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Speaker 3: it's going well, but we would have to adjust. And

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Speaker 3: if investors think tech catch credits are going to come

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Speaker 3: and go. That is tough because when you build a

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Speaker 3: plant that's a thirty year plant, you're kind of making assumptions.

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Speaker 3: You know, I'd rather have a modest level of support

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Speaker 3: constant for thirty years. Then it comes and goes in

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Speaker 3: even larger amounts. So you know how we work with

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Speaker 3: the Congress to maintain as much of the climate support

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Speaker 3: as possible, and to try and get predictability and to

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Speaker 3: adapt a challenge breakthrough. We'll face as much as we

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Speaker 3: need to.

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Speaker 1: Thank you so much.

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Speaker 3: All right, great talking to you and look forward to

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Speaker 3: seeing you.

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Speaker 1: Thank you for listening to Zero. If you like this episode,

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Speaker 1: Our theme music is composed by Wondering Special thanks to

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Speaker 1: am Akshatrati Bakson