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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: All the work, all the talk, all the handicapping is done.

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Speaker 3: It's time for history.

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Speaker 1: They are all in line. We're ready for the starts.

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Speaker 3: They're off in the Kentucky Derby rank another two legs

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Speaker 3: more back to win win wind on the turn, beginning

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Speaker 3: the pickup drive near the back of the pack.

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Speaker 2: As the field turns for home, Hendy burst do and

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Speaker 2: opening on the inside.

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Speaker 3: It's trying first drive as they come to the final

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Speaker 3: prolong kick.

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Speaker 2: Fling on what room down to the line.

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Speaker 3: That a possible result here lash that Kentucky Deary.

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Speaker 4: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast presented by Bett MGM.

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Speaker 4: Saturday at Churchill Downs, the one hundred and fiftieth renewal

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Speaker 4: of the greatest two minutes in sports, the Kentucky Derby

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Speaker 4: in Louisville.

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Speaker 3: Brendan Glashee and your host.

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Speaker 4: We have Mike Conti to us, our Action Network horse

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Speaker 4: Racing contributor and our Peal Shonzarello, a jack of all trades.

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Speaker 3: Great to have you with us.

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Speaker 4: Call this your Kentucky Derby Best bets Slash preview. We

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Speaker 4: got a lot to get to here and hopefully thirty

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Speaker 4: minutes or so to get you set for the weekend.

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Speaker 3: Just a couple of quick notes, guys.

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Speaker 4: You know Fierceness is the favorite for this coming weekend

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Speaker 4: coming off of victory in the Florida Derby. A couple

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Speaker 4: of interesting notes as far as the post position draws,

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Speaker 4: They're not favorable for Fierceness the favorite in Sierra Leone.

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Speaker 3: Those are some.

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Speaker 4: Things to call out, and that means the horses are

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Speaker 4: going to move down one spot in the starting gates,

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Speaker 4: and that means Epic Ride is into.

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Speaker 3: The field, just etching into that twentieth spot.

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Speaker 4: So with that being said, Shanzarello, I'll throw to you

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Speaker 4: first your leadoff thought.

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Speaker 3: As we get set for the derby this weekend.

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Speaker 1: Well, I'd like to try to cut the field in

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Speaker 1: half with Mike.

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Speaker 2: You know, anytime I'm taking this twenty horse derby field,

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Speaker 2: i want to eliminate about twenty of the horses off

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Speaker 2: the bats. So I'm going to toss out some names

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Speaker 2: and I'm going to see if Mike disagrees with any

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Speaker 2: of them and if he has any to potentially add

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Speaker 2: to the list. So the number one door knock to

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Speaker 2: me is a rabbit. I'm going to toss him the

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Speaker 2: number five Catalytic is thirty to one. Doesn't fit for

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Speaker 2: me on the pass performances. The number six just Steal

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Speaker 2: I like on the pass performances, but he has not

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Speaker 2: worked well apparently this week, so I'm going to toss

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Speaker 2: the number six Just Steal, even though he did pop

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Speaker 2: up as a potential selection for me. The number ten

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Speaker 2: TiO Password coming over from Japan. I prefer the other

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Speaker 2: Japanese horse, and also TiO Password does not look great

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Speaker 2: at Churchill Downs. The twelve track Phantom is a rabbit

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Speaker 2: adding blinkers. I think he's just going to go too

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Speaker 2: fast and then fade. The thirteen West Saratoga doesn't fit

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Speaker 2: for me. The fourteen Endlessly is a bit of a

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Speaker 2: wild card because he's coming over from a synthetic track.

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Speaker 2: Sometimes that works, sometimes it doesn't. It tends to be

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Speaker 2: that the synthetic racers or racers who do well on

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Speaker 2: synthetic tend to do better on the turf. So I'm

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Speaker 2: going to toss the fourteen Endlessly, but I won't be

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Speaker 2: shocked if he ends up getting into the money. The

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Speaker 2: sixteen grandmo the first at fifty to one and then

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Speaker 2: finally twenty one epic ride. The final horses I'm tossing. So, Mike,

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Speaker 2: amongst that group of nine horses that I just listed out,

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Speaker 2: any you disagree with and any that you would add.

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Speaker 1: To the list.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so, John, I agree mostly with you. Just Steel

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Speaker 2: is a horse that I'm keeping included. I'm not tossing

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Speaker 2: Just Steel. I think for a lot of the reasons

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Speaker 2: that you just mentioned. And look, I mean who in

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Speaker 2: this sport doesn't have a little bit of a soft

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Speaker 2: spot for the coach d Wayne Lucas, who's the trainer

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Speaker 2: of Just Steel. In addition other horses that I would talk,

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Speaker 2: I'm tossing both Japanese horses. So also adding in eleven

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Speaker 2: Forever Young. If you look at the history of the

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Speaker 2: Derby and the horses who have shipped in from overseas,

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Speaker 2: they have not historically run well, and I think that

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Speaker 2: that trend will most likely continue. The only other one

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Speaker 2: that you mentioned that I or didn't mention, that I

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Speaker 2: would add in to tossing is number twenty Society Man.

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Speaker 2: If you look at what the Wood Memorial, which is

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Speaker 2: the prep race that Society Man ran in, if you

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Speaker 2: look at what the Wood has produced in terms of

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Speaker 2: Kentucky Derby runners, it's not good. It's not a high

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Speaker 2: quality prep race historically, and so I'm just going to

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Speaker 2: take and toss him as well. Yeah, I was on

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Speaker 2: the fence with the twenty Society man, so interesting to

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Speaker 2: hear you, Adam. Maybe I'll end up taking him off

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Speaker 2: my tickets. He is in with a group of nine

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Speaker 2: horses for now. There's a couple that I'm going to

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Speaker 2: try to beat, which we'll get to when we talk

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Speaker 2: about our top win contenders. But yeah, I think we're

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Speaker 2: in mostly agreement with at least seven or eight horses there.

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Speaker 2: You can just take off your tickets, and then I

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Speaker 2: think there's other correlated ways you could go about betting

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Speaker 2: this race, depending on the pace. Again, we'll talk about

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Speaker 2: the favorites in the second. But you know, if you

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Speaker 2: can pair closers together like Catching Freedom and si ear

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Speaker 2: leone horses you think maybe coming from the back, or

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Speaker 2: you could be going more with horses who maybe coming

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Speaker 2: from the front with more moderate pace. So but you know,

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Speaker 2: no matter how you're handicapping that race, I just I

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Speaker 2: always like to find horses I'm not interested in using,

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Speaker 2: no matter how the pace shakes out. And then we

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Speaker 2: can start talking about the pace and the favorites and

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Speaker 2: which long shots we like to come in underneath. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I think we've got a pretty good starting point once

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Speaker 2: we cut down half the field.

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Speaker 3: All right, there you go.

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Speaker 4: So we eliminate the clutter for this best Bets episode,

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Speaker 4: which is uh, which is fitting for the purposes of

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Speaker 4: our audience and what we're trying to accomplish here. So

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Speaker 4: with that, knowing that you are mostly in agreement, which

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Speaker 4: horses you can toss off your card, let's discuss the

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Speaker 4: favorite win contender, Seanzillo, you can start us.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going to take Fierceness as my loan a

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Speaker 2: on top. I think Mike is a bit wider of

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Speaker 2: an opinion as to who he thinks could win this race.

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Speaker 2: And you know, in terms of how I handicap this,

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Speaker 2: I think Fierceness wins this race fifty percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: So getting five to two on the morning line and

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Speaker 2: probably goes off at two to one or three to two,

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Speaker 2: and there's still an edge of there when you really

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Speaker 2: think about it, right, you know, the difference between twenty

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Speaker 2: to one and forty to one is like the difference

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Speaker 2: between even money and minus one ten. The difference between

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Speaker 2: three to two and five to two, you know, is

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Speaker 2: the difference between I'm doing the math potentially wrong here

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Speaker 2: in my head, but like plus two thirty three and

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Speaker 2: plus one fifteen, and it's it's a much bigger difference

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Speaker 2: in terms of percentage because it's you're jumping by seven

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Speaker 2: to ten percent once you're getting towards those favorites, where

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Speaker 2: with the long shots you're jumping like two or three

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Speaker 2: percent every time it doubles. So I think the odds

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Speaker 2: are going to be ripe if it's above even money essentially,

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Speaker 2: but I'm still going to use him as my loan

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Speaker 2: favorite on top if he runs his best race, I

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Speaker 2: don't think anybody else beats him, and he's already run

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Speaker 2: a one to ten buyers speed figure, which is I

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Speaker 2: believe the highest for any Derby Prep race in the

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Speaker 2: past decade. Only one other horse missed the dan has

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Speaker 2: even run above one hundred. But Fierceness also has a

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Speaker 2: one oh five from the British Cup Juvenile last year

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Speaker 2: is whatever racy one at the end. I think it

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Speaker 2: was the British Cup Juvenile November. So he has the

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Speaker 2: top two speed figures any horse in this field and

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Speaker 2: normally say, okay, you know you expect some regression, you

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Speaker 2: expect other horses to improve. No, I don't think he's

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Speaker 2: run his best race yet. And he's training as well

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Speaker 2: as any horse at Churchill Downs in the week leading

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Speaker 2: up to the race. By all accounts from clockers and

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Speaker 2: his trainer, Todd Pletcher, he's sitting on a career best race.

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Speaker 2: He lost two starts back in the Holy Bowlt. This

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Speaker 2: is the first start of his form cycle. Didn't seem

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Speaker 2: to have enough in the tank down the stretch, came back,

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Speaker 2: set the record for this group in terms of speed

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Speaker 2: figures for the year with the one ten in the

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Speaker 2: Florida Derby, and just blasted away from that field. And

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Speaker 2: if he's taking any sort of improvement off of that race,

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Speaker 2: they're not going to touch him. If he just runs

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Speaker 2: back to that race, he probably still wins. So I

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Speaker 2: think the rest of this field needs him to regress,

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Speaker 2: and then they also need to have somebody step up

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Speaker 2: in order to take down fierceness. And I also, you know,

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Speaker 2: I don't mind the post at all. First off, sliding

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Speaker 2: from seventeen to sixteen, you know, and in terms of

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Speaker 2: the draw, maybe it changes his luck a little bit,

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Speaker 2: I'll still have that seventeen saddle cloth on him, and

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Speaker 2: horses with the seventeen saddle cloth a're oh for forty

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Speaker 2: four in the dirt. But in twenty twenty at Churchill

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Speaker 2: Downs they changed the gate. It used to be fifteen

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Speaker 2: horses in a main gate and then a five horse

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Speaker 2: auxiliary gate with a kind of a gap in between them.

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Speaker 2: That forced those outside horses to jump over and like

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Speaker 2: crush the entire field over from the start. Now that

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Speaker 2: there's been that auxiliary gate, I mean the first year

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Speaker 2: they introduced it, the seventeen horse finished second, So I

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Speaker 2: think there's just you know, more of a fair play

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Speaker 2: in terms of how the early part of that race goes.

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Speaker 2: But secondly, all of the speedish'rownto is inside all of

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Speaker 2: the other horses who I expect to go early door knock,

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Speaker 2: just to touch. I'm definitely missing one track Phantom, So

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Speaker 2: all of those horses are going to be going on

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Speaker 2: his inside and he just wants to go out, get

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Speaker 2: over and by the end of that first turn be

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Speaker 2: sitting you know, one path or two pass off the

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Speaker 2: horse in first place, or if they give him the lead,

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Speaker 2: he'd be happy to take it. But yeah, he's shown versatility,

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Speaker 2: the ability to win on the lead. He's shown versatility

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Speaker 2: with the ability to sit off the leader and then

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Speaker 2: pass horses in the stretch. And I don't think he's

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Speaker 2: going to face as much track trouble or traffic during

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Speaker 2: the race as other horses were in the inside like

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Speaker 2: Sierra Leone might. So I like to Sierra Leone and

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Speaker 2: I respect them, I just I think but the closers,

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Speaker 2: they're going to need a hot pace, which they've had

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Speaker 2: the past few years, and they're going to need traffic

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Speaker 2: to clear out for them. And you just need a

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Speaker 2: lot to go right. Fierceness doesn't need as much to

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Speaker 2: go right. He just needs to run as fast as

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Speaker 2: he has in the past.

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Speaker 3: Best speed in the field.

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Speaker 4: Mike Conti and Isarelots, do you might have interest in

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Speaker 4: a couple more horses that could win this thing?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, look, Fierceness. To Sean's point, Fierceness runs

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Speaker 2: his race. I think he's an absolute freak. The questions are,

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Speaker 2: who did he face in that Florida Derby Again, number

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Speaker 2: of those horses are coming back the way he moved

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Speaker 2: so effortlessly. Johnny Vee never even had to shake the

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Speaker 2: reins on him in that Florida Derby. It was like

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Speaker 2: he was just galloping around the track and to do

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Speaker 2: it in the fashion he did super impressive when you're

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Speaker 2: talking about a twenty horse field. And again, you know,

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Speaker 2: we also don't know, like Fierceness has thrown up some

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Speaker 2: clunkers in his career. Like which Fierceness shows up today? Right?

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Speaker 2: I mean you go back and I understand it was

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Speaker 2: in the slop, but back in October last year in

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Speaker 2: the Champagne, I mean he finished twenty lengths behind the

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Speaker 2: leader as the odds on favored in that race. You know,

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Speaker 2: again he's been training well. He looked superb in the

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Speaker 2: Florida Derby.

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Speaker 1: I don't know.

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Speaker 2: Five to two in a twenty horse field, just too

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Speaker 2: many things that can go wrong. I'm not going to

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Speaker 2: let Fierceness beat me in any of my bets, but

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Speaker 2: I'm looking elsewhere for top selections, and my top selection

230
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Speaker 2: I'm going a little bit further to the inside to

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Speaker 2: the number eight. Just a touch, a couple of interesting

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Speaker 2: things to look at with just a touch one. He

233
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Speaker 2: only made his career debut back in January. Similar to

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Speaker 2: his sire, his father Justified, who won the Derby and

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Speaker 2: won the Triple Crown as a three year old, who

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Speaker 2: never ran as a two year old. Justify, you know,

237
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Speaker 2: put away this age old just something, you know, something

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Speaker 2: that hadn't been done before where you hadn't run it

239
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Speaker 2: too and then you win it three to win the

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Speaker 2: derby at three and so just a touch coming in,

241
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Speaker 2: very very lightly raced, coming in off, I would argue

242
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Speaker 2: a really good, if there's such a thing, second place

243
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Speaker 2: finish in the Bluegrass Stakes, and you know Sierra Leone

244
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Speaker 2: came motoring home in that Bluegrass to win. And not

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Speaker 2: to knock Sierra Leone too much, because I do like

246
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Speaker 2: him somewhat, but I think every stretch run he's looked

247
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Speaker 2: very green. Heads been cocked, he's drifted side to side.

248
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Speaker 2: Just a touch looked really good. And the jockey of

249
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Speaker 2: just a Touch, Lauren Drew, when he came off after

250
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Speaker 2: that Bluegrass, he said that he thought that just a

251
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Speaker 2: touch had another year and he didn't know as though

252
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Speaker 2: that he was going to need it. He thought Sierra

253
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Speaker 2: Leone was too far back, wasn't going to be able

254
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Speaker 2: to get there. If just a touch can take a

255
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Speaker 2: step forward, and given how lightly rased he's been. I

256
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Speaker 2: think it's very realistic to assume that he's going to

257
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Speaker 2: take another step forward that you know, look out right,

258
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Speaker 2: because he's a horse who again doesn't need the lead,

259
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Speaker 2: is going to be forwardly placed or more forwardly placed.

260
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Speaker 2: And again Sean mentioned it in a field of twenty horses,

261
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Speaker 2: there's possible weather coming this weekend to Louisville. Rain possibly Thursday, rain,

262
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Speaker 2: possibly Friday and Saturday as well. You know, the question

263
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Speaker 2: then becomes like what does that do to everybody else?

264
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Speaker 2: How does that impact the closers? Right, It's one thing

265
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Speaker 2: to take dirt in the face, it's another thing to

266
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Speaker 2: take mud in their face. And so you want a horse,

267
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Speaker 2: I think that's going to be a little bit more

268
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Speaker 2: forwardly placed. I don't know as though, that you want

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Speaker 2: track Phantom, who I think is a rabbits as Sean mentioned.

270
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Speaker 2: But so for a lot of those reasons, I'm ending

271
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Speaker 2: up on my top selection number eight, just a touch

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Speaker 2: at ten to one. Yeah, I mean, we just have

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Speaker 2: them reversed. I have just a touch in second as

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Speaker 2: my second choice, and you know he was second the

275
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Speaker 2: entire way around. The Blooger asked the horses who finished

276
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Speaker 2: in front of him behind him, both came from the

277
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Speaker 2: back of the pack, Sierra Leone and the twenty one

278
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Speaker 2: horse in this field now Epic Ride. So yeah, I

279
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Speaker 2: think that race was very impressive and a very impressive

280
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Speaker 2: second place finish. And if I'm picking another horse to

281
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Speaker 2: win this race, not to use underneath in second or

282
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Speaker 2: third in exotics as prices, but if I'm using a

283
00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:22,240
Speaker 2: beg horse to actually win this race on multi race

284
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Speaker 2: tickets or on two day tickets or on just straight exotics,

285
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Speaker 2: it's just a touch and its fierceness, and I'm probably

286
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Speaker 2: not interested in anybody else as true wing contenders, which

287
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Speaker 2: means I'm against the four Catching Freedom and the two

288
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Speaker 2: Sierra Leone. I just expect a slightly more moderate pace

289
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Speaker 2: this year. We've gotten wicked paces the past two years

290
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Speaker 2: which allowed me age and which allowed Rich Strike to

291
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Speaker 2: come from the back of the pack and win those races,

292
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Speaker 2: and ultimately neither of them ended up winning another race

293
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Speaker 2: after that. So they were the best on that day.

294
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Speaker 2: They got a great pace set up. I don't think

295
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Speaker 2: the pace is necessarily going to set up for Catching

296
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Speaker 2: Freedom or Serial Leone like it has in recent iterations

297
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Speaker 2: of the race. You can agree with that, Mike, Yeah,

298
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Speaker 2: I do think that there's quit. I generally agree with you.

299
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Speaker 2: I do think though, that there's going to be quite

300
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Speaker 2: a bit of pace. I mean track Phantom has proved

301
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Speaker 2: that one trick pony no pun intended.

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Speaker 1: I mean, the only thing that the horse can do

303
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Speaker 1: is go to the.

304
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Speaker 2: Lead, and so I do think, like you know, thinking back,

305
00:14:18,160 --> 00:14:20,080
Speaker 2: and you can correct me here Sean on how many

306
00:14:20,120 --> 00:14:21,480
Speaker 2: years ago this was. I think it was like four

307
00:14:21,600 --> 00:14:24,280
Speaker 2: or five years ago. Now when promise is fulfilled went

308
00:14:24,320 --> 00:14:26,120
Speaker 2: to the lead in the derby and sent like some

309
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Speaker 2: crazy fast fractions up front, that to me is like

310
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Speaker 2: what track Phantom is going to do now. I think

311
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Speaker 2: the difference this year is does anybody else go with

312
00:14:36,080 --> 00:14:38,840
Speaker 2: track Phantom and try to like really push that pace.

313
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Speaker 2: So track Phantom may be out on the lead, possibly

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Speaker 2: by himself, depending upon what fierceness wants to do, what

315
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Speaker 2: dornockt wants to do. If track Phantom is on the

316
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Speaker 2: lead by himself, I don't necessarily consider a one horse

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Speaker 2: pace the pace of the race, because it's what's the

318
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Speaker 2: rest of the field than doing It's how many horses

319
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Speaker 2: are in that early group as I would like to

320
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Speaker 2: look at it as a opposed to a single horse

321
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Speaker 2: that's just out in front, which I think is more

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Speaker 2: of a possibility this year. So I do think that

323
00:15:05,880 --> 00:15:09,600
Speaker 2: there will be from a fraction standpoint, good pace, but

324
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Speaker 2: I don't know as though that there will be that

325
00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:14,040
Speaker 2: group of horses necessarily upfront like we've seen in the

326
00:15:14,120 --> 00:15:16,360
Speaker 2: last few years. Yeah, I think door Knock has to

327
00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:17,760
Speaker 2: go from the one post and he likes to be

328
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Speaker 2: forward as well. But yeah, after those two, like maybe

329
00:15:20,720 --> 00:15:23,000
Speaker 2: those two were paced dueling out in front, and then

330
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Speaker 2: there's a second flight that just to touch and feerousness

331
00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:29,000
Speaker 2: is in. Yeah, you know that are your real contenders

332
00:15:29,040 --> 00:15:31,520
Speaker 2: just kind of waiting for those few to fade. So yeah,

333
00:15:31,560 --> 00:15:33,520
Speaker 2: I think they may try to rab it, and you know,

334
00:15:33,560 --> 00:15:35,560
Speaker 2: with these longer shots, it may be the only chance

335
00:15:35,560 --> 00:15:37,240
Speaker 2: to win the race. Is just like get out to

336
00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:39,520
Speaker 2: a huge lead and hope that the rest of the

337
00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:41,720
Speaker 2: field doesn't time the run correctly and lets you get

338
00:15:41,720 --> 00:15:43,560
Speaker 2: a little bit too loose. So yeah, if I had

339
00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:45,760
Speaker 2: a fifty one shot in the derby that had any

340
00:15:45,760 --> 00:15:47,320
Speaker 2: sort of early speed, I would just send him in

341
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Speaker 2: hope for the best.

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Speaker 4: So you're both down on Sierra Leone because of the

343
00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:55,440
Speaker 4: approach and how this particular horse has to make kind

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Speaker 4: of a late push Seawan.

345
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Speaker 2: Yeah, he hasn't impressed me as much, you know, visually

346
00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:02,120
Speaker 2: as he has with others. I think he's gotten pretty

347
00:16:02,120 --> 00:16:04,720
Speaker 2: favorable setups in terms of the pace, and now you're

348
00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:06,400
Speaker 2: just adding more horses in front of him, and there's

349
00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:07,960
Speaker 2: just so much that can go wrong. If he gets

350
00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:10,560
Speaker 2: checked once, if he gets to stop once just because

351
00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:12,480
Speaker 2: there's a horse in his path or that moves over

352
00:16:12,520 --> 00:16:15,160
Speaker 2: in his path, his race is over. In the same respect,

353
00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:18,320
Speaker 2: you know, I Fierceness breaks poorly, his race is probably

354
00:16:18,360 --> 00:16:20,640
Speaker 2: over too. So in a twenty horse field, so much

355
00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:22,960
Speaker 2: can go wrong, which is why you know, people do

356
00:16:23,280 --> 00:16:26,240
Speaker 2: say it's difficult to take a short price. I'm not

357
00:16:26,280 --> 00:16:29,080
Speaker 2: necessarily betting, you know, a thousand bucks on Fierceness to

358
00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:30,880
Speaker 2: win it three to two, but I am going to

359
00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:34,160
Speaker 2: single him on top and try to find value making

360
00:16:34,240 --> 00:16:35,760
Speaker 2: him the winner, because I do think he is the

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00:16:35,920 --> 00:16:36,600
Speaker 2: likeliest winner.

362
00:16:36,600 --> 00:16:37,920
Speaker 1: But yeah, I just.

363
00:16:37,920 --> 00:16:40,240
Speaker 2: Think there's other horses who have a similar running style

364
00:16:40,280 --> 00:16:42,440
Speaker 2: to sier Leone who may get the jump on him,

365
00:16:42,440 --> 00:16:44,040
Speaker 2: and we could talk about that in the long shots.

366
00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:47,120
Speaker 2: But honor Marie Mystic Dan, these are other horses who

367
00:16:47,120 --> 00:16:50,000
Speaker 2: are going to be coming from further back, but a

368
00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:52,080
Speaker 2: bit in front of where cer Leone is going to start,

369
00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:54,080
Speaker 2: and all they need is just to get the right

370
00:16:54,120 --> 00:16:57,120
Speaker 2: trip and they could outrun him. So significantly better odds

371
00:16:57,160 --> 00:16:59,480
Speaker 2: than horses who I think have just the difficult just

372
00:16:59,600 --> 00:17:02,800
Speaker 2: as much a difficult path, but who could potentially outrun them.

373
00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:05,399
Speaker 2: And I agree, Sean, you know, and I mentioned it before.

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00:17:05,400 --> 00:17:08,359
Speaker 2: Look Sierra Leone super talented horse. There's not you know,

375
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Speaker 2: I'm not going to take anything away from the horse.

376
00:17:09,840 --> 00:17:13,000
Speaker 2: I mean, horse has virtually done nothing wrong. He's a

377
00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:16,120
Speaker 2: nose away from being a perfect four for four. He's

378
00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:19,879
Speaker 2: continued to you know, progress from a buyer speed figure

379
00:17:19,920 --> 00:17:23,280
Speaker 2: perspective in each and every start, and I don't think

380
00:17:23,320 --> 00:17:27,600
Speaker 2: that he'll have any issues getting the distance. But I

381
00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:30,240
Speaker 2: mentioned it in both of his last two starts. If

382
00:17:30,240 --> 00:17:32,720
Speaker 2: you go back and watch those races, whether you want

383
00:17:32,720 --> 00:17:35,239
Speaker 2: to call it greenness or whatever you want to call it,

384
00:17:35,480 --> 00:17:38,159
Speaker 2: there's something a little off about it. The way he

385
00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:41,560
Speaker 2: like finishes the race. His head's a little cocked, he's moving,

386
00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:45,600
Speaker 2: He's changing lanes throughout the stretch right when he doesn't

387
00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:48,280
Speaker 2: need to be. There's a greenness to that, and in

388
00:17:48,359 --> 00:17:50,800
Speaker 2: this race, you can't afford.

389
00:17:50,440 --> 00:17:50,879
Speaker 1: To do that.

390
00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:54,440
Speaker 2: As you mentioned, any one like misstep, whether it's by

391
00:17:54,440 --> 00:17:56,719
Speaker 2: the horse or a poor decision by the jock. And

392
00:17:56,920 --> 00:17:59,000
Speaker 2: I love Tyler gaf Leon, so it's nothing against him,

393
00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:01,600
Speaker 2: but any one wrong move when you've got a deep

394
00:18:01,680 --> 00:18:05,359
Speaker 2: closer like Sierra Leone, the race is over for you

395
00:18:05,440 --> 00:18:08,439
Speaker 2: at that point. So look, I'll let him beat me

396
00:18:08,520 --> 00:18:10,399
Speaker 2: on top. I think when we talk about, you know,

397
00:18:11,600 --> 00:18:16,520
Speaker 2: vertical exotics something to be considered, but we'll get there good.

398
00:18:16,600 --> 00:18:16,800
Speaker 1: Yeah.

399
00:18:16,840 --> 00:18:18,520
Speaker 2: He's a son of gun Runner, and gun Runner used

400
00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:20,600
Speaker 2: to do the same thing, changing leads in the stretch

401
00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:23,320
Speaker 2: until he turned four. Once gun Runner got a little

402
00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:26,200
Speaker 2: bit older, he matured. And you know, I love gun Runner.

403
00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:27,960
Speaker 2: He's one of my all time favorite horses. I love

404
00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:30,600
Speaker 2: betting on his sons and then on his daughters. But

405
00:18:31,320 --> 00:18:33,359
Speaker 2: I do think these horses tend to mature at four

406
00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:36,160
Speaker 2: instead of three. And I don't necessarily view them as

407
00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:40,160
Speaker 2: Derby contenders based on the pedigree as much as others might.

408
00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:42,199
Speaker 2: I just think they take a little bit longer to

409
00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:45,920
Speaker 2: fully mature. So yeah, it's another reason the greenness, certainly,

410
00:18:46,400 --> 00:18:49,399
Speaker 2: I think is as Sierra Leone gets a little bit older,

411
00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:52,080
Speaker 2: maybe by the time the Brugers' Cup Classic rolls around,

412
00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:53,760
Speaker 2: or even into his four year old season, if he

413
00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:56,199
Speaker 2: continues racing, I think he's gonna be much more dangerous.

414
00:18:57,080 --> 00:19:00,119
Speaker 4: So with that analysis in mind, with the favorites, as

415
00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:02,439
Speaker 4: we discuss some horses to toss at the front, and

416
00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:04,399
Speaker 4: we'll get to exotics. As Mike teased, we'll get to

417
00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:07,840
Speaker 4: that next favorite long shots. You guys get a couple

418
00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:09,600
Speaker 4: Zerillo go ahead.

419
00:19:10,359 --> 00:19:11,959
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've got two that I really like, and then

420
00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:14,960
Speaker 2: two in a tier below them. So the two that

421
00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:17,240
Speaker 2: I like, the fifteen domestic product. This is the other

422
00:19:17,359 --> 00:19:19,919
Speaker 2: Chad Brown horse. He's got Sierra Leone and he's got

423
00:19:19,960 --> 00:19:22,399
Speaker 2: the fifteen domestic product in here. And domestic product doesn't

424
00:19:22,440 --> 00:19:25,320
Speaker 2: necessarily fit on the speed figures. That talked about the

425
00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:27,359
Speaker 2: speed figures, with fierceness being so far ahead of the

426
00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:30,320
Speaker 2: rest of the field, domestic product doesn't fit on the

427
00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:33,400
Speaker 2: speed figures. His buyers are in the eighties, but he's

428
00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:36,000
Speaker 2: been training as well as any horse leading up to

429
00:19:36,040 --> 00:19:39,320
Speaker 2: this race. He's been giving Sierra Leone everything he can handle.

430
00:19:39,560 --> 00:19:41,640
Speaker 2: In their trips around the track this week. He also

431
00:19:41,640 --> 00:19:43,760
Speaker 2: has a pedigree for sprinting, not for distance, which is

432
00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:46,159
Speaker 2: another reason why I think people may not see it

433
00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:48,720
Speaker 2: in him, But watching his races, he seems to want

434
00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:51,080
Speaker 2: more ground and he seems to be working very hard

435
00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:53,399
Speaker 2: at the end of his races. So the fifteen domestic

436
00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:55,160
Speaker 2: product I think is going to make a huge jump

437
00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:57,879
Speaker 2: up in speed scores. Here Chad Brown always getting his

438
00:19:57,920 --> 00:20:00,920
Speaker 2: horses finally tuned off the bench, and then the number

439
00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:04,320
Speaker 2: nineteen resilience for beau Mott also seems to be working

440
00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:06,720
Speaker 2: as well as anybody at Churchill Downs this week. That

441
00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:08,760
Speaker 2: is what I look for when I'm happy in capping

442
00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:11,000
Speaker 2: his races. So horses that I like, they're all going

443
00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:12,520
Speaker 2: to have that in common this week is that they're

444
00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:15,120
Speaker 2: working well at Churchill Downs. But he ran a career

445
00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:18,119
Speaker 2: best race in the Wood, which, as as Mike talked about,

446
00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:20,159
Speaker 2: not a great prep race, has not produced a Derby

447
00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:23,399
Speaker 2: winner in quite some time. But he did that coming

448
00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:26,080
Speaker 2: off of a layoff and now second start back. He

449
00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:28,640
Speaker 2: wasn't expecting to win that race. I don't think Bomot

450
00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:30,600
Speaker 2: expected him to run as well as he did now

451
00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:33,680
Speaker 2: coming back second start off the layoff, looking better in training,

452
00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:35,560
Speaker 2: I think he's ready to fire what should be a

453
00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:36,600
Speaker 2: career best performance.

454
00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:38,280
Speaker 1: So with the.

455
00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:41,879
Speaker 2: Number seventeen resilience or with the number seventeen fierceness, I'm

456
00:20:41,920 --> 00:20:44,160
Speaker 2: going to try to get the number fifteen domestic product

457
00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:48,479
Speaker 2: or the number nineteen resilience into an exact and then

458
00:20:48,520 --> 00:20:51,119
Speaker 2: if we're expanding it out a little bit into trifecta.

459
00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:54,120
Speaker 2: Super factors are mostly trifectas. You don't want to build

460
00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:55,760
Speaker 2: your super fact to take it too deep. It would

461
00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:59,080
Speaker 2: just cost too much money. But for trifector purposes, the

462
00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:02,240
Speaker 2: number seven Honor also working extremely well. I just think

463
00:21:02,280 --> 00:21:04,560
Speaker 2: getting a little bit too much buzz, and I don't

464
00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:06,200
Speaker 2: think you're going to get that twenty to one price

465
00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:08,560
Speaker 2: tag that you currently see on the board. I think

466
00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:10,520
Speaker 2: he's going to end up settling closer to twelve to

467
00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:12,040
Speaker 2: one or fifteen to one, just because of all the

468
00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:15,320
Speaker 2: people talking about him this week. But another horse like

469
00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:17,480
Speaker 2: Sierra Leone, who's going to be coming from the back,

470
00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:20,159
Speaker 2: just going to be getting a much better price on

471
00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:22,320
Speaker 2: the seven Honu Marie. Then the number three missed it.

472
00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:25,200
Speaker 2: Dan ran a one on one buyer in the Southwest Stakes.

473
00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:28,399
Speaker 2: But he did that over muddy track, so has the

474
00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:31,959
Speaker 2: second best speed score in this field aside from fierceness.

475
00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:33,480
Speaker 1: But he did do it in the mud.

476
00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:35,720
Speaker 2: You can move him up though, as Mike also mentioned,

477
00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:37,680
Speaker 2: if there's going to be a rain in the weather

478
00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:40,440
Speaker 2: this weekend, he's definitely a horse I would consider moving

479
00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:42,440
Speaker 2: up my rankings if it is going to rain or

480
00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:43,840
Speaker 2: if the ground is going to be a little soft.

481
00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:46,600
Speaker 2: So the fifteen and the nineteen my top long shots,

482
00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:50,760
Speaker 2: the seven and the three on the next tier. Yeah,

483
00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:54,000
Speaker 2: that's how I rank out my next tier of horses

484
00:21:54,040 --> 00:21:56,520
Speaker 2: for now. But just the touch like the eight, you

485
00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:58,880
Speaker 2: know it's I have him before that tier of horses.

486
00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:01,560
Speaker 2: Just to be very clear, I'm just any exact I'm

487
00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:02,840
Speaker 2: going to try to get a price in there.

488
00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:06,960
Speaker 4: Right, Mike CONTI, you'd already expressed your favorite long shot

489
00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:08,720
Speaker 4: to a degree, the number eight horse.

490
00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:10,880
Speaker 3: How else does the card shakeout?

491
00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:14,119
Speaker 2: Oh we're going We're going bigger than that glass. The

492
00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:17,200
Speaker 2: eight is the top selection for me favorite long shot,

493
00:22:17,240 --> 00:22:19,959
Speaker 2: though Zurillo is stealing a little bit of the thunder

494
00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:23,800
Speaker 2: here is domestic product. And I'll be honest, there was

495
00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:25,680
Speaker 2: a point in time where I was close to putting

496
00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:28,960
Speaker 2: domestic product as my top choice in this race, which

497
00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:32,600
Speaker 2: to some people seems crazy. I went back and watched

498
00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:35,800
Speaker 2: that Tampa Bay Derby and the Holy Bowl, both of

499
00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:38,840
Speaker 2: them I watched multiple times. Here's what I love about

500
00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:42,720
Speaker 2: domestic product. A horse that can close into a slow pace.

501
00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:47,120
Speaker 2: That horse can do something special if given any bit

502
00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:49,920
Speaker 2: of pace to run into. And when I say slow,

503
00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:52,680
Speaker 2: just for everybody out there, we're talking domestic product running

504
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:55,680
Speaker 2: into fractions of twenty five and one fifty one to one.

505
00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:58,560
Speaker 2: I would expect the fractions of the Derby to be

506
00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:02,440
Speaker 2: closer to like twenty four in one and then maybe

507
00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:05,760
Speaker 2: like a forty eight and three forty maybe a forty

508
00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:09,560
Speaker 2: nine to one half mile. So we're talking about and

509
00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:12,720
Speaker 2: in horse racing, a second is an eternity of time.

510
00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:14,639
Speaker 2: And so this is a horse who's been able to

511
00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:18,240
Speaker 2: close in two slow paces. He's had to split horses,

512
00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:22,240
Speaker 2: weave through traffic, didn't have the cleanest of trips, and yes,

513
00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:25,040
Speaker 2: Sean mentioned it before, he's gonna have to take a

514
00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:29,119
Speaker 2: massive step forward from a buyer speed figure perspective. But look,

515
00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:32,679
Speaker 2: you're also talking about two of the very best in

516
00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:36,840
Speaker 2: this game, Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz Junior. Anytime that

517
00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:39,159
Speaker 2: I can get thirty to one on those connections on

518
00:23:39,240 --> 00:23:43,360
Speaker 2: a Clareovitch horse, it's just too hard to pass up.

519
00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:46,199
Speaker 2: I get it, it's the Derby, but I again, I

520
00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:48,440
Speaker 2: want to make this crystal clear. There was a point

521
00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:51,399
Speaker 2: in time on Sunday night when I did my first

522
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:53,840
Speaker 2: path of the Derby and I thought that domestic product

523
00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:55,640
Speaker 2: was going to be my top choice in this race.

524
00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:59,840
Speaker 2: So he's absolutely my top long shot at thirty to one.

525
00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:01,800
Speaker 2: I don't think we're going to get thirty to one

526
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:03,919
Speaker 2: if we get anywhere near that, though, I think that

527
00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:07,919
Speaker 2: there's some interest there. Another long shot that's interesting to me,

528
00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:11,040
Speaker 2: which was one of Sewn's tosses, is just Steal again,

529
00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:14,840
Speaker 2: another son of Justify. I don't think like the horse.

530
00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:17,480
Speaker 2: He's one of the most experienced horses in the race,

531
00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:19,639
Speaker 2: which you can argue on both sides of the equation

532
00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:21,480
Speaker 2: is good or bad? Right if they run the horse

533
00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:24,080
Speaker 2: too much, has he had enough rest? Whatever it may be.

534
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:27,480
Speaker 2: The horse ran a really good second to Mouth in

535
00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:31,600
Speaker 2: the Arkansas Derby. If you look at the Preakness future

536
00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:35,199
Speaker 2: bets Mouth is the heavy favorite in the Preakness, So

537
00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:37,119
Speaker 2: if Mouth was in this race, he would at the

538
00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:39,879
Speaker 2: very least be the second choice behind Fierceness, if not

539
00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:43,439
Speaker 2: maybe even contend with Fierceness for that favorite spot. So

540
00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:46,359
Speaker 2: just steal to me at twenty to one. A really

541
00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:50,440
Speaker 2: interesting horse. He's also run over this Churchill track twice.

542
00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:52,800
Speaker 2: He's got to win in a third place finish. So

543
00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:56,360
Speaker 2: as a long shot, somebody to think about, somebody to include.

544
00:24:56,640 --> 00:24:59,320
Speaker 2: The last horse that I'll mention that I think underneath

545
00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:02,199
Speaker 2: on exotics has to be used. And it goes against

546
00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:04,480
Speaker 2: a lot of what we've talked about in terms of closers.

547
00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:08,800
Speaker 2: Is catching Freedom the horse again another deep closer. He

548
00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:12,800
Speaker 2: continues to improve. He's improved his buyer speed figure every

549
00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:16,320
Speaker 2: start of his career of his five starts. But here's

550
00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:20,080
Speaker 2: the other reason. Jockey Flavian Pratt is a board. Pratt

551
00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:23,399
Speaker 2: has had six Derby starts. He's been in the money

552
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:26,440
Speaker 2: five times, one win, one second and three thirds. When

553
00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:29,359
Speaker 2: you have a jockey that understands the way that this

554
00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:32,840
Speaker 2: race unfolds with a horse at eight to one, that's

555
00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:35,440
Speaker 2: a horse that you have to use in your exotics,

556
00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:35,720
Speaker 2: in my.

557
00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:38,160
Speaker 3: Opinion, excellent good stuff.

558
00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:41,800
Speaker 4: This podcast is presented by bet mgm us bonus code

559
00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:44,040
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560
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561
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562
00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:58,639
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564
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565
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 4: betting just five dollars. Terms and conditions apply. Must be

566
00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:11,240
Speaker 4: twenty one plus gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler.

567
00:26:12,560 --> 00:26:12,800
Speaker 1: Guys.

568
00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:14,600
Speaker 3: Good to go to exotics, Yes.

569
00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:15,679
Speaker 1: Do it, Okay, let's do it.

570
00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:17,920
Speaker 3: Here we go. We'll start exact as zerrilla.

571
00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:18,560
Speaker 1: Yeah.

572
00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:20,679
Speaker 2: So, if I'm playing my top two selections right just

573
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:22,879
Speaker 2: to touch in fierceness, I'd want to do it cold.

574
00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:25,320
Speaker 2: I'd want to do a seventeen to eight exact a cold,

575
00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:27,800
Speaker 2: no other selections in there. I think the way you

576
00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 2: juice it up, well, you make it more spice, and

577
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:32,639
Speaker 2: you can absolutely play that one. But I think the

578
00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:35,320
Speaker 2: way to find some odds be to play the seventeen

579
00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:38,800
Speaker 2: fierceness on top of the fifteen domestic product, and then

580
00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:41,720
Speaker 2: also on top of the nineteen resilience two dollars. Active

581
00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:44,000
Speaker 2: would cost you four dollars there, but you would get

582
00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:47,879
Speaker 2: much juicier odds if that ended up hitting. Also curious

583
00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:50,320
Speaker 2: how Mike would go about playing domestic product, considering we

584
00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:52,359
Speaker 2: like this for so much, if he considers it a

585
00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:55,040
Speaker 2: one play show play, I would go about that. That's

586
00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:56,560
Speaker 2: That's what I'm thinking I'm going to end up doing

587
00:26:56,560 --> 00:26:58,919
Speaker 2: with domestic product if the odds are thirty to one

588
00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:01,520
Speaker 2: or twenty five to one, even twenty to one, probably

589
00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:04,320
Speaker 2: interested in a winplace showbat in domestic product. Securitist here

590
00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:07,320
Speaker 2: Mike's thoughts on that. But taking those same opinions, right,

591
00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:10,560
Speaker 2: the seventeen, the eight, the fifteen to nineteen, that's my

592
00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:13,840
Speaker 2: superfecta essentially, That's how I'd play them in a trifecta.

593
00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:16,399
Speaker 2: The seventeen on the first line, the eight, the fifteen,

594
00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:18,760
Speaker 2: and the nineteen on the second and third line. So

595
00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:21,320
Speaker 2: to come in either second or third a one dollar

596
00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:25,040
Speaker 2: trifecta would cost you six dollars there if you want

597
00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:27,119
Speaker 2: to go. And the same with the super. Uh, the

598
00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:30,919
Speaker 2: seventeen on top of the eight fifteen nineteen, second, third, fourth,

599
00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:33,440
Speaker 2: one dollar super would cost you six dollars, So that's

600
00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:36,399
Speaker 2: the cheaper ways I'd go about playing the exact as.

601
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:37,760
Speaker 1: The trifecta is the super efecta.

602
00:27:37,840 --> 00:27:39,760
Speaker 2: If you want to get a little bit deeper into

603
00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:42,440
Speaker 2: the weeds of the trifecta trying to find a way

604
00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:44,920
Speaker 2: to play it, the first is the Caveman method, where

605
00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:47,679
Speaker 2: you can just do the seventeen on top fierceness and

606
00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:52,480
Speaker 2: then probably like seven to nine horses underneath him. The

607
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:55,640
Speaker 2: trimmer way to do it is to take the seventeen

608
00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:58,440
Speaker 2: who I like, the eight to fifteen and nineteen who

609
00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:00,959
Speaker 2: I like, and put those on two of the three lines.

610
00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:05,159
Speaker 2: So you have one ticket that's seventeen eight fifteen nineteen

611
00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:07,800
Speaker 2: and second in second, and then a bigger group of

612
00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:10,879
Speaker 2: horses in third, and then a second ticket where you

613
00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:13,200
Speaker 2: flip that second and third line. So one ticket will

614
00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:16,600
Speaker 2: be seventeen eight fifteen nineteen, and then a group of

615
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:20,320
Speaker 2: nine horses which includes eight fifteen nineteen, and then seventeen

616
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:23,000
Speaker 2: that same group of eight or nine horses, and then

617
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:25,400
Speaker 2: eight fifteen nineteen and third, so you're trying to get

618
00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:27,919
Speaker 2: fierceness in the money. You're trying to get one of

619
00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:31,560
Speaker 2: just the touch, or for domestic product or resilience in

620
00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:34,520
Speaker 2: the money. And then a bigger group of horses, all

621
00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:36,640
Speaker 2: of which we discussed the horses who we didn't toss

622
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:39,120
Speaker 2: out at the beginning as your third line. I haven't

623
00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:45,840
Speaker 2: narrowed it down completely yet. My initial group, though, was three, seven, eight, eleven, fifteen, eighteen,

624
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:48,600
Speaker 2: nineteen twenty. I may swap out the twenty after what

625
00:28:48,640 --> 00:28:51,320
Speaker 2: Mike and I discussed, I may swap out the eleven.

626
00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:53,600
Speaker 2: Mike doesn't like the eleven as much, but yeah, that's

627
00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:55,720
Speaker 2: you know, all of my bets are keyed around the

628
00:28:55,800 --> 00:28:59,400
Speaker 2: seventeen winning and the eight fifteen or nineteen finishing second

629
00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:01,960
Speaker 2: or third, and then trying to find other prices to

630
00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:02,800
Speaker 2: mix in there with them.

631
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:03,960
Speaker 1: Hopefully that makes some sense.

632
00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:08,120
Speaker 4: Okay, Mike, why don't you go ahead and attack here

633
00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:10,640
Speaker 4: exact as triffect at a superfecta.

634
00:29:11,480 --> 00:29:11,840
Speaker 1: Yeah.

635
00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:14,440
Speaker 2: Look, gosh, I'm gonna keep it pretty simple, right. I

636
00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:17,320
Speaker 2: told you, Just a Touch is where I'm landing as

637
00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:20,240
Speaker 2: my top selection. I'm going to put him on top

638
00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:23,760
Speaker 2: of every bet, and then I'm gonna you know, mix

639
00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:26,360
Speaker 2: and match pending upon odds. So one thing that I

640
00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:29,960
Speaker 2: would implore people to do is, you know, as when

641
00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:33,160
Speaker 2: the race before the derby finishes and they post it

642
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:35,440
Speaker 2: goes official, you can go and look at what are

643
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:39,160
Speaker 2: called probables to understand what your payouts are going to be.

644
00:29:39,320 --> 00:29:42,080
Speaker 2: On exact as. You should be looking when you're playing

645
00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:45,120
Speaker 2: exact as, you should be looking at the probables so

646
00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:47,600
Speaker 2: that you don't have to box things so that you

647
00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:50,440
Speaker 2: can figure out how much should you bet, because your

648
00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:53,960
Speaker 2: dot your base bet amount should vary based on what

649
00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:58,400
Speaker 2: the potential windfall would be if your bet hits. As

650
00:29:58,440 --> 00:30:03,200
Speaker 2: an example, the a touch with fierceness exacta let's just

651
00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:07,120
Speaker 2: say that it's gonna pay thirty bucks, but the just

652
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:10,800
Speaker 2: a touch with domestic product is going to pay I

653
00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:13,120
Speaker 2: don't know, zerillo, help me, maybe try to figure this out.

654
00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:15,680
Speaker 2: It's gonna pay like two hundred bucks or something for

655
00:30:15,720 --> 00:30:18,840
Speaker 2: about one hundred sure, yeah, one eighty to two hundred

656
00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 2: somewhere in there. So if I'm one, yeah, yeah, So

657
00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:25,120
Speaker 2: if I'm doing that right, you have to think about

658
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:28,480
Speaker 2: it and say, okay, So the the just a touch

659
00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:33,040
Speaker 2: over fierceness is gonna it's gonna be five times less

660
00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:37,160
Speaker 2: than what the just a touch with domestic product is

661
00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:39,920
Speaker 2: going to be. So that's going to change the dollar

662
00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 2: amounts that I'm gonna bet. I think, Look, we've learned

663
00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:45,520
Speaker 2: this in the past. Betting a straight exacta delivers the

664
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:48,360
Speaker 2: most value, but there's interesting ways that you can bet

665
00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:51,960
Speaker 2: multiple straight exactas. That doesn't necessarily mean you're gonna be

666
00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 2: able to hit all of them, but you figure out

667
00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:56,760
Speaker 2: the right way to bet them. That's how you kind

668
00:30:56,760 --> 00:30:59,880
Speaker 2: of can get an edge in horse racing. That being said,

669
00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:02,120
Speaker 2: here's how I'm going to go about it. Glash play

670
00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:04,960
Speaker 2: in just a touch over domestic product. I'm going to

671
00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:08,040
Speaker 2: play just a touch over fierceness. Those are the two

672
00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:11,560
Speaker 2: exactas that I'm going to pay play. My trifecta is

673
00:31:11,600 --> 00:31:15,600
Speaker 2: going to look something like just a touch over domestic

674
00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:20,120
Speaker 2: product and fierceness, and then I'm going to put domestic

675
00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:25,080
Speaker 2: product fierceness and catching freedom the four in third. So again,

676
00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:29,959
Speaker 2: that would the trifecta would be eight over fifteen seventeen

677
00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:35,640
Speaker 2: over four fifteen seventeen. And so that's the way that

678
00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:37,880
Speaker 2: I'm going to play it. If you're going to play

679
00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:41,520
Speaker 2: a super while like it can be a massive, at

680
00:31:41,560 --> 00:31:46,840
Speaker 2: times life changing payday, it can get really expensive really quick.

681
00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:49,800
Speaker 2: I actually tend to stay away from it, use my

682
00:31:49,920 --> 00:31:53,760
Speaker 2: bankroll in other places throughout the day to build for

683
00:31:53,840 --> 00:31:56,360
Speaker 2: the Derby so that I can bet bigger exotics and

684
00:31:56,680 --> 00:32:00,320
Speaker 2: listen hopefully and you can read it on actionnetwork dot com.

685
00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:02,720
Speaker 2: Hopefully you'll be able to hit, you know, some of

686
00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:05,480
Speaker 2: the multi race wagers, which is where I anticipate being

687
00:32:05,520 --> 00:32:08,280
Speaker 2: able to make even more money hopefully. Yeah, And that's

688
00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:10,479
Speaker 2: that's what I build towards two is, you know, And

689
00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:12,920
Speaker 2: that's mostly what I'm spending my time doing is narrowing

690
00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:15,160
Speaker 2: down this field and finding which horses I actually like

691
00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:15,440
Speaker 2: to win.

692
00:32:15,520 --> 00:32:16,960
Speaker 1: So in the multi is, I'm.

693
00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:18,880
Speaker 2: Either closing out all of my tickets with just the

694
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:21,880
Speaker 2: seven or just the seventeen Fierceness, or I'm going to

695
00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:25,240
Speaker 2: include some of the eight just the touch, but it's

696
00:32:25,280 --> 00:32:28,000
Speaker 2: one of one or two or just one for me

697
00:32:28,080 --> 00:32:30,320
Speaker 2: across multi race tickets. And as I said, for the

698
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:34,560
Speaker 2: vertical exotics for this race, it's just the one seventeen Fierceness,

699
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:37,440
Speaker 2: So yeah, but may use just the touch across multi

700
00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:39,160
Speaker 2: race tickets I like to have at least two horses

701
00:32:39,240 --> 00:32:41,080
Speaker 2: alive for the Derby. It's not not as much of

702
00:32:41,120 --> 00:32:43,600
Speaker 2: a fun sweat when you're alive at a pick four

703
00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:45,400
Speaker 2: and pick five and you only have one horse left.

704
00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:47,320
Speaker 2: It definitely gets a little bit nerve wracking.

705
00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:48,920
Speaker 1: Good stuff.

706
00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:52,080
Speaker 4: I think the beauty two of podcasting is people can

707
00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:54,920
Speaker 4: go back and rewind and hit that fifteen second back.

708
00:32:54,960 --> 00:32:57,160
Speaker 4: Have they got to go down and write things back or.

709
00:32:57,080 --> 00:32:58,440
Speaker 1: Grab a pen, grab a pad.

710
00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:01,160
Speaker 2: You know. It's definitely with the numbers for horse racing,

711
00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:03,600
Speaker 2: but we're trying to say the names too and connect

712
00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:06,600
Speaker 2: them together. But yeah, pull up the post positions. It's

713
00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:09,160
Speaker 2: an easy way to compare the numbers as we're talking

714
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:09,600
Speaker 2: about him.

715
00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:10,160
Speaker 1: Yeah.

716
00:33:10,240 --> 00:33:12,960
Speaker 4: I think our producer is doing that as we also

717
00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:16,720
Speaker 4: do this podcast too, so he's a good lesson for

718
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:19,920
Speaker 4: that particular approach. I'll send it back to CONTI here

719
00:33:20,000 --> 00:33:22,400
Speaker 4: for an undercard breakdown for Derby Day please.

720
00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:26,520
Speaker 2: Yeah. Look, I've finished all Like I mentioned earlier at

721
00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:28,520
Speaker 2: the top of the podcast, i finished all my homework.

722
00:33:28,880 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 2: I'm going to give one best bet on the undercard

723
00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:35,040
Speaker 2: on Saturday, and we're going to go to Race ten,

724
00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:38,560
Speaker 2: which is the Grade one Churchill Downs and I'm going

725
00:33:38,640 --> 00:33:42,400
Speaker 2: to go to number three Bo Cruz. He's ten to

726
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:44,320
Speaker 2: one on the morning line. I'm not going to give

727
00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:49,040
Speaker 2: the people some favorite this horse. He won the Commonwealth

728
00:33:49,120 --> 00:33:52,640
Speaker 2: last time out. Going into the Commonwealth, I called just

729
00:33:52,680 --> 00:33:55,440
Speaker 2: about anybody and everybody that I could to tell them

730
00:33:55,440 --> 00:33:58,000
Speaker 2: that he was going to win this race. He went

731
00:33:58,040 --> 00:34:00,400
Speaker 2: off at six to one, so he paid a pretty

732
00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:03,400
Speaker 2: penny in that race and he won for fun, I

733
00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:04,680
Speaker 2: mean just going away.

734
00:34:05,040 --> 00:34:06,400
Speaker 3: And yes, is this.

735
00:34:06,360 --> 00:34:08,319
Speaker 2: A step up in class going from Grade three to

736
00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:12,520
Speaker 2: Grade one? Absolutely, no questions asked. That being said, I

737
00:34:13,440 --> 00:34:15,960
Speaker 2: very much expect this horse to continue to move forward.

738
00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:20,319
Speaker 2: He's already one at this distance and he's won at

739
00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:23,560
Speaker 2: Churchill Downs. So you put those things, you know, you

740
00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:27,759
Speaker 2: take those into account. You get jockey Jose Ortiz. There's

741
00:34:27,840 --> 00:34:31,560
Speaker 2: just a lot to like about bo Cruz at ten

742
00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:33,759
Speaker 2: to one. I don't think we're getting ten to one

743
00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:37,719
Speaker 2: frankly on Saturday. But he is the best bet on

744
00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:40,600
Speaker 2: the undercard and he will be a horse that I'm

745
00:34:40,600 --> 00:34:44,759
Speaker 2: building multi race tickets around as that single so that

746
00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:46,839
Speaker 2: I can spread in some other races.

747
00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:48,520
Speaker 1: It's a tremendous name too.

748
00:34:49,000 --> 00:34:51,200
Speaker 3: I was wondering if Adam Sandler was his jockey.

749
00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:56,120
Speaker 2: He and I will say this for those watching, you

750
00:34:56,160 --> 00:34:58,399
Speaker 2: cannot miss him on the track. He's a beautiful gray

751
00:34:58,440 --> 00:35:00,879
Speaker 2: horse with a tail that has him black and gray

752
00:35:00,880 --> 00:35:02,799
Speaker 2: in it. When it's switching around, you cannot miss him

753
00:35:02,800 --> 00:35:05,040
Speaker 2: on the track. You'll know who he is. He does

754
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:11,160
Speaker 2: he run in construction boots. O God.

755
00:35:12,160 --> 00:35:15,560
Speaker 4: All right, let's go to Kentucky Oaks selections. As for Friday,

756
00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 4: and I know I'm glad Mike brought up weather and

757
00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:22,200
Speaker 4: how that could play a factor earlier or later in

758
00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:26,600
Speaker 4: the week leading into Saturday. So Zerrilla, I can't remember

759
00:35:26,640 --> 00:35:29,920
Speaker 4: if you have thoughts for Friday's card, but what do

760
00:35:29,960 --> 00:35:30,720
Speaker 4: you got for us?

761
00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:34,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, no particular thoughts for the overall undercard on Friday,

762
00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:36,520
Speaker 2: but do have some thoughts regarding the horses working best

763
00:35:36,600 --> 00:35:39,000
Speaker 2: leading into the Kentucky Oaks. The eleven Ways and Means

764
00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:42,000
Speaker 2: and the thirteen Just FYI, those are the two horses

765
00:35:42,040 --> 00:35:44,400
Speaker 2: I'm going to end up picking, probably playing in an

766
00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:46,239
Speaker 2: exact on top. I'm gonna go against the favorite, the

767
00:35:46,320 --> 00:35:49,440
Speaker 2: number eight, Tarifa, who also looks tremendous. I just think

768
00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:51,960
Speaker 2: this is a very deep Oaks field. I think it's

769
00:35:51,960 --> 00:35:54,680
Speaker 2: a much more competitive and wide open race than the

770
00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:57,919
Speaker 2: Kentucky Derby. There's like seven or eight horses that could

771
00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:01,000
Speaker 2: see in this fourteen horse field winning, so very competitive

772
00:36:01,160 --> 00:36:05,080
Speaker 2: edition of the Oaks. I'm going to take though the

773
00:36:05,120 --> 00:36:07,279
Speaker 2: eleven and the thirteen ways and means and just the

774
00:36:07,360 --> 00:36:10,680
Speaker 2: Fyi and then the Oaks Derby double. I'll play those

775
00:36:10,719 --> 00:36:13,319
Speaker 2: two with the number seventeen Fierceness in a two day

776
00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:16,600
Speaker 2: bet and hopefully we make some money going against the

777
00:36:16,600 --> 00:36:20,839
Speaker 2: favorite Tarifa. But yeah, if I'm playing any multi race

778
00:36:20,920 --> 00:36:25,080
Speaker 2: tickets on Friday, I'll definitely be including Tarifa as well.

779
00:36:25,160 --> 00:36:29,600
Speaker 2: Just don't think there's enough value including her alongside Fierceness

780
00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:32,759
Speaker 2: and two other horses in a two day bet, But

781
00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:34,520
Speaker 2: on a pick five I think there might be enough.

782
00:36:34,600 --> 00:36:38,680
Speaker 2: So yeah, favorite favorite, don't don't think there's enough value

783
00:36:38,760 --> 00:36:41,279
Speaker 2: to necessarily go with that as your two day bet,

784
00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:42,280
Speaker 2: but I'll try to be Terifa.

785
00:36:42,719 --> 00:36:46,160
Speaker 3: And Terifa's jockey is Pratt Mike, who have you spoke

786
00:36:46,239 --> 00:36:48,040
Speaker 3: highly of so far in this episode.

787
00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:52,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, look, I agree with Sean. I also think that

788
00:36:52,400 --> 00:36:54,799
Speaker 2: this is a weekend where you're trying to throw out

789
00:36:54,840 --> 00:36:57,560
Speaker 2: some favorites if you can I'm not saying totally toss them,

790
00:36:57,600 --> 00:36:59,680
Speaker 2: maybe not letting them beat you like I talked about

791
00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:03,359
Speaker 2: with Fears. I actually am playing completely against tarifin here.

792
00:37:03,400 --> 00:37:05,839
Speaker 2: I'm not using her in any of my tickets. If

793
00:37:05,840 --> 00:37:07,920
Speaker 2: I get beat by her, I get beat byr I'll

794
00:37:07,920 --> 00:37:09,920
Speaker 2: go to sleep Friday night, I'll wake up Saturday morning

795
00:37:10,040 --> 00:37:13,360
Speaker 2: ready to fire for the Oaks. Though I ended up

796
00:37:13,400 --> 00:37:18,960
Speaker 2: on number five Torpedo Anna. She's like her name suggests,

797
00:37:19,000 --> 00:37:22,399
Speaker 2: I mean thorpedo torpedo. I mean, she's a freak. There

798
00:37:22,440 --> 00:37:24,160
Speaker 2: was a point in time, a little a couple of

799
00:37:24,160 --> 00:37:26,640
Speaker 2: months ago that there were talks of trying to get

800
00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:31,040
Speaker 2: her into the Derby. Trainer Kenny McPeak, who can be

801
00:37:31,160 --> 00:37:33,240
Speaker 2: somewhat loud and boisterous at times.

802
00:37:33,360 --> 00:37:33,879
Speaker 1: I mean, he.

803
00:37:33,960 --> 00:37:36,799
Speaker 2: Said that someone better bring a beast to counter her,

804
00:37:36,880 --> 00:37:39,240
Speaker 2: because she's coming in the best form of her life.

805
00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:43,280
Speaker 2: She's been training just lights out and at five to one,

806
00:37:43,640 --> 00:37:45,880
Speaker 2: you know, give me that chance, second off the layoff

807
00:37:46,120 --> 00:37:49,160
Speaker 2: another horse who's run at Churchill before. She's got one

808
00:37:49,200 --> 00:37:52,680
Speaker 2: win and one second from two career starts, really hasn't

809
00:37:52,680 --> 00:37:56,440
Speaker 2: done much wrong. Three wins from four career lifetime starts,

810
00:37:56,719 --> 00:38:01,080
Speaker 2: so Thorpedo Anna is the top selection for me. One

811
00:38:01,080 --> 00:38:03,640
Speaker 2: of the horses that I'm using underneath Sean mentioned ways

812
00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:06,879
Speaker 2: and Means. The horse was the odds on favorite in

813
00:38:07,120 --> 00:38:10,680
Speaker 2: the Gulf Stream Park Oaks that was off a really

814
00:38:10,760 --> 00:38:14,200
Speaker 2: long layoff though Ways and Means ran in the spin

815
00:38:14,280 --> 00:38:18,400
Speaker 2: Away last summer at Saratoga. After absolutely demolishing the field

816
00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:22,160
Speaker 2: in her first career start, she clipped heels, which means

817
00:38:22,160 --> 00:38:24,680
Speaker 2: that she caught another hoof of another horse when they

818
00:38:24,680 --> 00:38:27,480
Speaker 2: were running. She still finished second, but she had an

819
00:38:27,480 --> 00:38:29,960
Speaker 2: ankle fracture, so she had been off for a really

820
00:38:30,040 --> 00:38:33,160
Speaker 2: long time. She came back into training. She trained up

821
00:38:33,160 --> 00:38:35,359
Speaker 2: to the Gulf Stream Park Oaks. You can easily say

822
00:38:35,360 --> 00:38:37,919
Speaker 2: that she needed that race to get back after being

823
00:38:37,960 --> 00:38:41,759
Speaker 2: off for more than six months. She's another Chad Brown trainee,

824
00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:44,320
Speaker 2: so look, if he didn't believe that she was ready

825
00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:46,360
Speaker 2: for this spot, he wouldn't put her in here. So

826
00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:49,200
Speaker 2: I'm absolutely going to use ways and means underneath another

827
00:38:49,239 --> 00:38:51,520
Speaker 2: horse at five to one, and then the last horse

828
00:38:51,560 --> 00:38:53,040
Speaker 2: that I've got in the Oaks is all the way

829
00:38:53,080 --> 00:38:56,239
Speaker 2: to the outside number fourteen, Leslie's Rose. Look, she's tied

830
00:38:56,280 --> 00:38:58,680
Speaker 2: for the highest last out buyer speed figure in the

831
00:38:58,719 --> 00:39:01,600
Speaker 2: Ashland and she did that, and she had to wait

832
00:39:01,680 --> 00:39:05,000
Speaker 2: behind horses on the term. Then she found room coming

833
00:39:05,040 --> 00:39:07,080
Speaker 2: out of the term, swung a little wide and.

834
00:39:07,120 --> 00:39:08,800
Speaker 1: Exploded for home.

835
00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:12,000
Speaker 2: So I think another horse that you absolutely have to include,

836
00:39:12,040 --> 00:39:13,920
Speaker 2: and another fair price at four to one.

837
00:39:14,560 --> 00:39:18,120
Speaker 4: All right, gentlemen, excellent work, Mike Conti, Shonzarello. You can

838
00:39:18,160 --> 00:39:22,960
Speaker 4: find their breakdowns, picks best bets over in the Actionnetwork

839
00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:25,800
Speaker 4: app actionnetwork dot com. Mike's gonna have a full breakdown

840
00:39:25,840 --> 00:39:28,359
Speaker 4: available there ahead of Saturday, and.

841
00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:30,520
Speaker 3: I'm sure you'll have some stuff for Friday too, Mike.

842
00:39:30,800 --> 00:39:33,080
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, Friday and Saturday both we'll be up.

843
00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:34,600
Speaker 3: Excellent, very good.

844
00:39:35,000 --> 00:39:38,000
Speaker 4: Okay, that's gonna do it for our Kentucky Derby betting

845
00:39:38,080 --> 00:39:41,800
Speaker 4: preview for Shonzarello, Mike Conti, Brendan Glasheen, thanks for tuning

846
00:39:41,840 --> 00:39:46,440
Speaker 4: in to the Action Network podcast presented by BETTMGM. Best

847
00:39:46,480 --> 00:39:49,080
Speaker 4: of luck, enjoy the ponies, and we'll join you next time.

848
00:39:56,560 --> 00:40:01,080
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

849
00:40:01,080 --> 00:40:03,880
Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

850
00:40:03,920 --> 00:40:07,000
Speaker 3: available twenty four seven at one eight hundred. Gambler