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Speaker 1: Hey guys, how are you happy Monday? Welcome into a

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Speaker 1: new episode of the Daily Juice podcast with me Matt Perraltz.

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Speaker 1: You guys can follow me across all of my socials

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Speaker 1: at Sports Talk Matt and yes it was a losing day,

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Speaker 1: Yes it was a losing week, but I don't care

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Speaker 1: about any of that, cause the New England Patriots are

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Speaker 1: into the AFC Championship Game after one of the most

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Speaker 1: insane quarterback performances I have ever seen in my life

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Speaker 1: in CJ.

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Speaker 2: Stroud. Oh my, look.

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Speaker 1: The Patriots are sixteen and o this year, when Christian

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Speaker 1: Gonzalez and Milton Williams are both playing.

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Speaker 2: They're not lost yet.

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Speaker 1: They go to Denver to play in the AFC Championship Game.

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Speaker 1: Where Denver has played in three AFC Championship games in

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Speaker 1: the last twenty years. They have all been against the Patriots.

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Speaker 1: Tom Brady never won at Denver. I am forty eight

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Speaker 1: years old. I am old enough to remember Carl Mecklenberg

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Speaker 1: in the Oriente Crush defense, John Elway, and the house

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Speaker 1: of horrors that Denver has been for the Patriots my

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Speaker 1: entire life. This is the place where the Patriots go

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Speaker 1: and lose and if it was bo Nicks, I would

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Speaker 1: say the Patriots one hundred percent would be losing this game.

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Speaker 1: Because I said it in October. My anger with the

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Speaker 1: Patriots in the regular season was only one.

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Speaker 2: I only had one real criticism of the Patriots.

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Speaker 1: It's they were going to lose the tie breaker to

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Speaker 1: the Broncos for the number one seed. And I said,

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Speaker 1: whoever hosts the number one seed, whoever hosts the AFC

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Speaker 1: Championship game, was going to win if they played Patriots

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Speaker 1: Broncos for the right to go to Santa Clara. But

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Speaker 1: the broken broken ankle, fractured ankle for BOONICKX changes everything

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Speaker 1: sharp action, one way traffic. It is all Patriots money

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Speaker 1: at the moment here, we've got an eleven to one,

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Speaker 1: now a nine point nine to one, let's just call

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Speaker 1: it ten to one ticket now after betting on the

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Speaker 1: Texans and we hedged off that bet now into ten

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Speaker 1: to one bet, I'm gonna do it again, except I'm

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Speaker 1: just gonna go money lined. We're gonna go money line

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Speaker 1: for one unit at some point during the week. If

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Speaker 1: this number keeps climbing, I'm just gonna wait. It's plus

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Speaker 1: two to twenty right now for the money line. Look,

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Speaker 1: the Broncos defense can beat the Patriots. I mean, Drake

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Speaker 1: May has put the ball on the ground so much.

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Speaker 1: I mean it's it can really happen. There's no I mean,

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Speaker 1: all Jared Stidham has to do is not pull a CJ.

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Speaker 1: Stroud like, don't do that. Don't turn the ball over

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Speaker 1: a thousand times. If he's able to just hang on

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Speaker 1: to the football, which by the way, he has a

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Speaker 1: very hard time doing, as Patriot fans will tell you,

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Speaker 1: he throws a lot of picks. Okay. And you can't

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Speaker 1: run on the Patriots. You can't run RJ. Harvey or

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Speaker 1: whoever else they want. You're not running on the Patriots.

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Speaker 2: Okay.

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Speaker 1: So now with Dalbal, Jared Sindham and the Patriots are

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Speaker 1: gonna do exactly what they did to the Houston Texans.

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Speaker 1: They're gonna play the safeties down, they're gonna jump routes,

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Speaker 1: and they're gonna make you throw over the top. Now,

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Speaker 1: the difference is Courtland Sutton in company. The Broncos have

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Speaker 1: got receivers who can beat you over the top. There

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Speaker 1: was nobody available for the Texans to be able to

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Speaker 1: do that without Nico Collins. And then without Dalton Schultz

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Speaker 1: and they just had nobody. That's not the case for Denver.

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Speaker 1: They've got dudes, They've got receivers who can hurt the

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Speaker 1: Patriots over the top. So this will be about the

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Speaker 1: pass rush, and this is gonna be about the offensive

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Speaker 1: line once again for the Patriots and whether or not

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Speaker 1: they can protect Drake May because Drake May and back

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Speaker 1: to back games, has held onto the ball far too

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Speaker 1: long and he's been sacked and fumbled way too much,

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Speaker 1: like way too much. If Drake May does it on

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Speaker 1: the road, he will lose this game to Denver, period.

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Speaker 1: So there's a lot going on to this game. I

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Speaker 1: am stunned at the five and a half point number,

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Speaker 1: and all I can think of it's a headfake that

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Speaker 1: this is just the Pros driving this number up as

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Speaker 1: high as they can earlier in the week, and then

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Speaker 1: the second that the limits open up on Thursday, that

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Speaker 1: we're going to see nothing but one way max bet

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Speaker 1: action on the Broncos again. I know this is look

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Speaker 1: Jared Sindams in a very awful situation, the only quarterback

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Speaker 1: to play in a game in the postseason after taking

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Speaker 1: and not taking a snap in the regular season in

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Speaker 1: win was Frank Reich with the Buffalo Bills in that

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Speaker 1: crazy win against the Houston Texans, or no, against the

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Speaker 1: Houston Oilers. Sorry Houston Oilers, now Houston Texans. That's this year,

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Speaker 1: but Houston Oilers way back in like ninety two, I

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Speaker 1: think it was. I was in high school whenn't happened.

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Speaker 1: So one in seven. It's not gonna be great here

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Speaker 1: for what's going on, but I'll get to the Bears

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Speaker 1: game here in just one second, we go two and

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Speaker 1: four down two point four units.

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Speaker 2: I don't care.

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Speaker 1: Patriots game goes over way over. Law went to hit

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Speaker 1: forty four. The Bears cover, They lose, but they cover

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Speaker 1: pook Away under Marks had no shot. Burden hard rock

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Speaker 1: bet of the day goes to twelve and eight. That

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Speaker 1: cashed for us with three catches for Burdens, so we

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Speaker 1: get that he could have had more. But now twelve

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Speaker 1: and eight on the hard rock bet of the day,

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Speaker 1: so losing there, but really the hedge, it's like three

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Speaker 1: and three because of the hedge. I'll take that as

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Speaker 1: a win for the Patriots to move on. But if

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Speaker 1: you're a Bears fan today, I know you're hurting and

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Speaker 1: you had an awesome season, and you've got a really

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Speaker 1: good quarterback in Caleb Williams who needs to just do

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Speaker 1: the little things better. He needs to improve his accuracy,

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Speaker 1: he needs to improve his footwork, and he needs to

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Speaker 1: do it right now. Everyone's burying Dj Moore for the

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Speaker 1: overtime interception, saying that he gave up on the route,

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Speaker 1: and that's true, and the throw wasn't great, but the

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Speaker 1: route wall also was run really poorly by Dj Moore.

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Speaker 1: But it's also the fact that you know, on that

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Speaker 1: fourth down play in the red zone where he threw

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Speaker 1: the ball late over in the middle, there were so

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Speaker 1: many balls that could have been intercepted, like Caleb, we

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Speaker 1: will be talking about the Caleb Williams running backwards throw

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Speaker 1: to Cole Comet forever. I mean that was to lose

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Speaker 1: a game in which that play happened is awful. Like

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Speaker 1: that totally stinks. But now we get the Rams and

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Speaker 1: the Seahawks one v two versus one v two or

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Speaker 1: I guess no, no, sorry, one v two versus one B five.

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Speaker 2: Right, sorry, the Rams aren't five.

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Speaker 1: But you've got a huge opportunity for Seattle here to

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Speaker 1: win their eleventh consecutive game at home. In the postseason,

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Speaker 1: and that building is going to be going crazy, like

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Speaker 1: absolutely going crazy. It's gonna be Sunday's going to be

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Speaker 1: a ton of fun. Let me run through a couple

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Speaker 1: of things real quick.

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Speaker 2: Here. Favorites went four to zero.

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Speaker 1: Straight up in the divisional round for just the third

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Speaker 1: time in the last twenty years. If you can believe that,

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Speaker 1: since twenty eleven, every AFC Championship game has featured either

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Speaker 1: the Patriots or the Chiefs, that's crazy. The Patriots are

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Speaker 1: now twenty four and five at home all time in

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Speaker 1: the playoffs. That's the best home field homes postseason record

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Speaker 1: of any team in the NFL who has played at

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Speaker 1: least ten home games in their history. The only team

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Speaker 1: that has more wins are the forty nine Ers, who

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Speaker 1: have twenty six. Patriots clearly going on the road this week,

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Speaker 1: they're done playing at home. The Patriots had more takeaways

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Speaker 1: in the first three quarters of the game against the

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Speaker 1: Houston Texans than the New York Jets had for their

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Speaker 1: entire seventeen game season.

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Speaker 2: Their entire seventeen game season. That is unreach when.

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Speaker 1: You stop and think about that, which how bad the

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Speaker 1: Jets are. Matthew Stafford is now five and oh straight

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Speaker 1: up as a favorite in the postseason. That's the most

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Speaker 1: wins without a loss for any quarterback in the last

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Speaker 1: twenty six years. The Rams are now dogs on the

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Speaker 1: road against Seattle. Opened up at one and a half.

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Speaker 1: Immediately Bet to two and a half, and I actually

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Speaker 1: don't think that's a headfake. I think Seahawks minus three

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Speaker 1: is where that number will close, and I don't think

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Speaker 1: it will come off of it. I think once we

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Speaker 1: get to three, I think that's where we will be

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Speaker 1: here in Vegas. The super Bowl here in Vegas is

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Speaker 1: already at two and a half. They opened at two

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Speaker 1: and a half. Other books on the East Coast all

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Speaker 1: opened at one and a half and they have seen

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Speaker 1: nothing but one way action here on Seattle. To me,

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Speaker 1: that's that's the side, like that's that's just the side

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Speaker 1: that you play. So what a what a fun, fun

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Speaker 1: weekend Saturday Sunday, and we're not done. The Natty is

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Speaker 1: tonight Miami and Indiana for the Natal Championship. Before I

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Speaker 1: give you the picks for today, let me tell you

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Speaker 1: about our friends at hard Rock. Bet Boy, are they

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Speaker 1: excited to host the game tonight at hard Rock Stadium?

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Speaker 1: If you're going to the game, okay, if you're in Miami.

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Speaker 1: If you're going to the game, check out and be

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Speaker 1: aware of what hard rock bet is doing because they're

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Speaker 1: giving away ten bucks in bonus bets to like everyone

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Speaker 1: all over the city. They're giving away people free wagers,

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Speaker 1: free bets for the National Championship at hard Rock Bet.

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Speaker 1: Because hard Rock Bet is Florida's sportsbook, so there's tons

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Speaker 1: of promoents for tonight. With Miami in the game and

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Speaker 1: hard Rock Stadium hosting the National Championship, hard Rock BET's

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Speaker 1: going to be really active pregame but also very active

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Speaker 1: in game. Tons of action you guys can bet on

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Speaker 1: during the game after the game is kicked off for

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Speaker 1: hard rock Bet if you haven't ever used it before,

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Speaker 1: a five dollars bet. If that hits with your first

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Speaker 1: give you one hundred and fifty dollars and bonus bets.

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Speaker 1: It is going to be a fun night tonight, So

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Speaker 1: your live betting, and all the offers and promos that

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Speaker 2: Hard Rock bet.

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Speaker 1: Download the hard Rock Bet app today and make your

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Speaker 1: first deposit today. All right, let's talk about Miami and Indiana.

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Speaker 1: Number was as high as eight and a half. It

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Speaker 1: has since been bought down to seven and a half.

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Speaker 1: We've seen a lot of buyback here, people taking the

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Speaker 1: eight and a half, So the pros laid six and

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Speaker 1: a half and they have now bought back at eight

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Speaker 1: and a half, so they've created kind of a little

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Speaker 1: middle for themselves here for tonight the number being seven

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Speaker 1: and a half. I can't get my brain around, Carson Beck.

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Speaker 1: I'm sorry if you I've been awful this year betting

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Speaker 1: college college football and college basketball.

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Speaker 2: Okay, I just I've had a very bad year.

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Speaker 1: So if you're a Miami fan, you're gonna like the

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Speaker 1: fact that I'm saying take Indiana. But I want to lay.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to lay seven and a half. I

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Speaker 1: don't want it to be a two score game. Even

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Speaker 1: though I do not believe that Miami is going to

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Speaker 1: score tonight against this defense. Indiana's defense is so highly underrated.

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Speaker 1: Both these teams have played Ohio State recently, okay, and

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Speaker 1: I kind of use that as a barometer as to

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Speaker 1: what I think is going to happen tonight. So Miami

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Speaker 1: on a neutral beat Ohio State twenty four to fourteen,

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Speaker 1: Indiana on a neutral beat Ohio State thirteen to ten.

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Speaker 1: I think this game is going to look like that.

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Speaker 1: I think this game is going to be very low scoring.

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Speaker 1: But I don't think Miami is going to score very

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Speaker 1: much because I don't know if Mario crystal Ball is

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Speaker 1: comfortable allowing Carson Beck just to drop back and throw

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Speaker 1: the football a lot. I think they want to get

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Speaker 1: the ball out to mile Chai Tony, but I think

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Speaker 1: Indiana's gonna be ready for that. I think they want

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Speaker 1: to run the ball with their two good running backs,

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Speaker 1: but Indiana's rush defense and their defensive line is highly underrated.

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Speaker 1: I mean, look, they gave up three points to Alabama,

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Speaker 1: ten points to Ohio State. Yeah, Oregon scored twenty two

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Speaker 1: points on but that was garbage time. That game was

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Speaker 1: over in a blink. I think it's Indiana defense is

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Speaker 1: being highly underappreciated, and I think Miami's defense is getting

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Speaker 1: a little bit too much love in my mind, because

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Speaker 1: of what we've seen with Mendoza and the running backs,

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Speaker 1: both of them, the wide receivers, the offensive line just

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Speaker 1: what Indiana has looked like. I mean, call it sharp, sorry,

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Speaker 1: call it square, call it following the public, call it

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Speaker 1: whatever you want. I just can't get over the fact

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Speaker 1: that this team scored thirty eight points and fifty six

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Speaker 1: points against Alabama and Oregon, and both those teams didn't

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Speaker 1: look like they belonged on the same field. I can't

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Speaker 1: get the game, and it was on the road, I'll

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Speaker 1: give it to you, but the A and M game,

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Speaker 1: which they wanted ten to three, I can't get that

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Speaker 1: offensive performance out of my mind. I just don't think

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Speaker 1: this offense is explosive enough. And I don't think they're

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Speaker 1: going to run the ball down Indiana's throats. I just

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Speaker 1: don't think that's going to happen. Given the way Indiana

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Speaker 1: has played defense this season and just how good they are.

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Speaker 1: I don't think it's going to be a huge home

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Speaker 1: field advantage, if anything, for Miami. And yes it's their stadium,

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Speaker 1: and yes they didn't travel, so I'll give you all that,

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Speaker 1: but the building when the game starts, this is a

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Speaker 1: National championship game. This is not a home game for Miami.

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Speaker 1: So I just think this is going to be Carson

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Speaker 1: Beck versus Mendoza and Fernando Mendoza is somebody that I

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Speaker 1: want to back. I don't want to back Carson Beck.

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Speaker 1: I want to back Mendoza. I think Indiana will have

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Speaker 1: a chance to potentially, you know, win the game by

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Speaker 1: double digits, you know, win the game by ten or

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Speaker 1: more points here, just because of the offense Elijah Sarah.

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Speaker 2: It's been so damn good.

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Speaker 1: I know the secondary's played very well here in these playoffs,

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Speaker 1: but I like the skill players a lot. Becker has

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Speaker 1: been so good for Indiana here in these playoffs. And

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Speaker 1: I know Malchai Toni has been tremendous, but I just

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Speaker 1: don't think Miami scores enough here in this game. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna lay the seven points here. Give me a really

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Speaker 1: really fun game. If you like low scoring games. I

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Speaker 1: think we're going Miami and Indiana. We're taking the Hoosiers

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Speaker 1: to win their first ever national championship. I'm gonna lay

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Speaker 1: the seven points. I'm gonna buy the half a point down.

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Speaker 1: I'm just gonna I think it gets there. I think

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Speaker 1: folks are gonna buy seven and a half, but I'm

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Speaker 1: just gonna take the seven and take it as minus seven.

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Speaker 1: I'm much sure we're gonna need it, but it's only

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Speaker 1: minus one twenty, so shop around to the books. But

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna buy that a point and drop it down

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Speaker 1: to seven and lay minus one twenty for one point

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Speaker 1: two units. And on the same level, I'm gonna bet

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Speaker 1: the under again. I don't think Miami scores. I don't

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Speaker 1: think they're gonna be able to move the football that

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Speaker 1: effectively up against this really tough defense. Both teams play

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Speaker 1: at a very slow place. It's forty seven and a half.

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Speaker 1: It opened at forty eight and a half. The first

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Speaker 1: move came down to forty seven and a half. I'm

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Speaker 1: playing the under. I think it's a game in the

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Speaker 1: low twenties, you know, highest scoring game. I could see

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Speaker 1: it is like a twenty four to seventeen type game,

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Speaker 1: but that goes under. I'm gonna I'm gonna play the

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Speaker 1: under Indiana and the under. If you want to do

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Speaker 1: a same game teaser, I don't hate that you take

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Speaker 1: Indiana down to minus one or one and a half

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Speaker 1: and then you go and take the total, pull it

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Speaker 1: up to fifty three and a half and go under.

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Speaker 2: Don't mind that play.

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Speaker 1: If you think the offense out, the offenses will play

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Speaker 1: well and score a lot. You could go ahead and

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Speaker 1: take it down to forty one and a half and

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Speaker 1: bet over if you think it's like a twenty four

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Speaker 1: to twenty type final that goes over forty one and

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Speaker 1: a half, but it stays under forty seven and a half,

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Speaker 1: so maybe you play it like that. Those are two

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Speaker 1: other ways of looking at this game if you want.

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Speaker 1: But for me, I'm gonna lay the seven with Indiana

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Speaker 1: and then I'm gonna go ahead and take the under

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Speaker 1: forty seven and a half for the games here tonight,

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Speaker 1: now one game in the NBA I want to highlight

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Speaker 1: because it's actually, you know, for me, I have more

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Speaker 1: interest in this game than the National champions Game because

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna watch it.

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Speaker 2: Obviously it's football, but.

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Speaker 1: The Celtics are playing on the road against the Pistons

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Speaker 1: in a really good game in the NBA. Like, if

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Speaker 1: you're not a football fan, this is one hundred percent

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Speaker 1: of basketball game you should be watching because these two

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Speaker 1: teams are two of the best teams in the East.

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Speaker 1: And if all the rumblings around the Celtics proved to

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Speaker 1: be true, this could be a wild couple of months

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Speaker 1: for the Boston Celtics, one BAM and a Bayo. There's

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Speaker 1: a lot of rumors about Boston going to Miami and

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Speaker 1: trying to trade for Bam to give them a center presence,

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Speaker 1: to give them a defensive presence in a score in

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Speaker 1: the paint. And Jason Tatum was caught mouthing after the

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Speaker 1: last game for Boston I'm ready, well if he's ready,

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Speaker 1: oh my. Jalen Brown just scored forty one points in

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Speaker 1: a blowout win over the Hawks. He scored fifty last week,

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Speaker 1: and he's looking like an All NBA First team member

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Speaker 1: and he's in the MVP conversation. But Boston has lost

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Speaker 1: two of the first three games to the Pistons. They

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Speaker 1: lost the last matchup one twelve to one oh five.

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Speaker 1: They beat them on the road, sorry in Boston's or.

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Speaker 1: They won in Boston one seventeen to one fourteen, and

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Speaker 1: they lost at Detroit one nineteen to one thirteen. This

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Speaker 1: is the second game in Detroit. Boston's catching two and

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Speaker 1: a half points.

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Speaker 2: This is a.

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Speaker 1: Huge game in the East, in a really fun game

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Speaker 1: in the East, if you ask me so. So far,

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Speaker 1: in the first matchup, the Pistons were favored by two

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Speaker 1: and a half points. Back in October they won and

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Speaker 1: covered Boston was a dog at home to the Pistons

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Speaker 1: and they won the game outright, covering the one and

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Speaker 1: a half. And then the Celtics were favored. Back on

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Speaker 1: December the fifteenth, they were laying one and a half

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Speaker 1: points on the road against at home against Detroit, and

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Speaker 1: Detroit won the game outright, one twelve to one oh five.

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Speaker 1: These teams, I I think Boston's gonna put out a

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Speaker 1: performance here tonight. I think with the way that Derek

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Speaker 1: White is shooting the basketball right now, with the way

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Speaker 1: that Jalen Brown is playing, this is a unreal, really fun,

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Speaker 1: fun game tonight, and I think you just go ahead

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Speaker 1: and just take the dog. Kate Cunningham has been just awesome,

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Speaker 1: like he's been unbelievable here for the Detroit Pistons. I

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Speaker 1: can't wait to watch this game, but I think you

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Speaker 1: just take points. It's a coin flip type game. But

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Speaker 1: where the dog was, I would wind up taking it

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Speaker 1: here for Boston, who is fourteen.

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Speaker 2: And eight straight up on the road this year.

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Speaker 1: Detroit is sixteen and four at home, Detroit's thirty and

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Speaker 1: ten overall. Boston is twenty six and fifteen, and you

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Speaker 1: better believe that the number one team in the East

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Speaker 1: hosting the number two team in the East has Joe

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Speaker 1: Missoula's attention. What a fun game in the NBA tonight.

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Speaker 1: Maybe I'm Rydan the Patriots high and it's just you know,

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Speaker 1: a complete sucker bet. But give me the Celtics at

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Speaker 1: plus two and a half on the road against the Pistons.

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Speaker 1: So play today, Miami Indiana under forty seven and a

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Speaker 1: half Indiana minus seven bid and half a point down

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Speaker 1: to mis one twenty Celtics plus two and a half

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Speaker 1: on the road at the Pistons tonight.

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Speaker 2: Awesome game in the NBA. Minu's Matt Parolt.

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Speaker 1: You guys can follow me across all my socials at

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Speaker 1: sportstoc Matt oh forgot wait if you guys are interested

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Speaker 1: more National Championship preview in a full recap of the

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Speaker 1: entire weekend coming up on the Bostonian Versus the Book.

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Speaker 1: I forgot to tell you about that. That's one o'clock

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Speaker 1: Eastern time, live on the BVB YouTube channel. That's at

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Speaker 1: Boston versus the Book. You will get me for over

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Speaker 1: an hour talking nothing about football. Coming up on Monday,

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Speaker 1: one pm on the YouTube channel and the X channel

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00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:43,560
Speaker 1: for BBB. It's at Boston versus the Book, full recap

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Speaker 1: of all four games from the weekend, and the preview

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Speaker 1: of the National Championship game for Miami and Indiana coming

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Speaker 1: up here for tonight, Min's Matt Parolt at Sports Talk.

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Speaker 1: Matt all my handle handles wherever you guys get your podcasts.

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Speaker 1: Every morning, video audio. It is the Daily Juice.