WEBVTT - Inflation Tops 10% on Key Items That Americans Just Can't Avoid

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanivik. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and

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<v Speaker 1>analyst in more than one and twenty countries. You can

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<v Speaker 1>download Bloomberg Business Week and iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com.

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<v Speaker 1>You can also listen to our radio show at two

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<v Speaker 1>pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. So safe to say our

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<v Speaker 1>kids just cannot catch a break. Between the pandemic and

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<v Speaker 1>being schooled at home for a long time, missing out

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<v Speaker 1>on all important socialization for months at a time, and

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<v Speaker 1>then the chronic shootings in schools and society where kids

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<v Speaker 1>often end up being the target. It has been a

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<v Speaker 1>worldful of stress for our younger citizens. We did hear

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<v Speaker 1>the House of Representatives yesterday passing and sweeping gun reform law,

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<v Speaker 1>but it seems like it's not going to get past

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<v Speaker 1>the Senate. Let's get into it and specifically what it

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<v Speaker 1>means for our nation's youth, joining us as dot or tomorrow. Mendelssohn,

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<v Speaker 1>Director of the Center for Adolescent Health at the Johns

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<v Speaker 1>Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>School of Public Health that is supported by Michael R. Bloomberg,

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<v Speaker 1>the founder of Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. Dr Medison,

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<v Speaker 1>we wanted you on the program today because you're an

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<v Speaker 1>expert in adolescent mental health, child psychology, and you can

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<v Speaker 1>really give us an overview on what our nation's kids

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<v Speaker 1>go through, not just if they you would experience a

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<v Speaker 1>horrific event like this, but just preparing for events like this.

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<v Speaker 1>When I was in school, we weren't doing drills for

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<v Speaker 1>active shooters. Carol, I know it wasn't happening when you

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<v Speaker 1>were a Columbine. Happened my freshman year of high school,

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<v Speaker 1>and I feel that was a sort of a changing

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<v Speaker 1>moment um. How do we need to think about this

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<v Speaker 1>in the context of mental health. Yeah, so thank you

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<v Speaker 1>for having me. It's a pleasure to be with you today.

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<v Speaker 1>And yes, you're absolutely right that these kinds of events have,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, sort of cute and then ongoing impact for

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<v Speaker 1>young people. And of course the young people who are

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<v Speaker 1>most affected are either out of school where shooting has happened,

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<v Speaker 1>or you know, in community in some way. But even

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<v Speaker 1>young people who may live far away are going to

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<v Speaker 1>hear about these events through the media, and like you're saying,

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<v Speaker 1>they may also be experiencing drills or other change procedures

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<v Speaker 1>in their school. So I think it's important for parents

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<v Speaker 1>to understand that this might raise anxieties and concerns for

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<v Speaker 1>young people. And I think it's really important to sort

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<v Speaker 1>of know your child as well as to be thinking

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<v Speaker 1>about their age and their developmental stage. So, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>for very young children, you may decide you want to

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<v Speaker 1>turn the news off, and you you know, you may

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<v Speaker 1>want to sort of create space around this for children

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<v Speaker 1>who are going to be hearing about this at school

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<v Speaker 1>or through friends. Um, I think it's really important to

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<v Speaker 1>create space for your child to talk about what they've heard,

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<v Speaker 1>what they're feeling, and what their questions are. Sometimes kids

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<v Speaker 1>have misperceptions or fears about events that parents can really

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<v Speaker 1>help to talk through. It's also important for parents to

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<v Speaker 1>work through their own emotions for talking with children so

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<v Speaker 1>that we can really be focused on on what our

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<v Speaker 1>children's needs are and I think the more that we

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<v Speaker 1>can provide you know, basic information that is in line

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<v Speaker 1>with how old our kids are and kind of what

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<v Speaker 1>they're ready to hear, that that can be really helpful

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<v Speaker 1>for young people well. And I do think about you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we always talk about in our world, in our realm,

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<v Speaker 1>about public private partnerships, and I do think about you know,

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<v Speaker 1>mental well being wellness. I do feel like we took

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<v Speaker 1>a major step forward during the pandemic and coming off

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<v Speaker 1>of George Floyd. I mean, there were just a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of very strong conversations and understandings being felt and made.

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<v Speaker 1>But I also do think that we need to still

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<v Speaker 1>continue to move forward on this and think about the

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<v Speaker 1>role of schools maybe in all of this um and

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<v Speaker 1>making sure that there are environments where kids who are

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<v Speaker 1>struggling get the support at home, but maybe also at

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<v Speaker 1>these educational institutions. I agree with that. I think schools

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<v Speaker 1>are really important resource for our our young people's total health.

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<v Speaker 1>So teachers can also help to create space to have

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<v Speaker 1>sort of safe, age appropriate conversations about current events. And

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<v Speaker 1>also schools are spaces where young people who have emerging

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<v Speaker 1>mental health needs can hopefully be identified and can be

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<v Speaker 1>um provided with the supports that they need, and that

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<v Speaker 1>might come from a school mental health UH specialist, or

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<v Speaker 1>it might come from referrals for outside sources. But I

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<v Speaker 1>think schools are often really important gateways to for connecting

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<v Speaker 1>children with services that they need. I'm just trying to

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<v Speaker 1>understand the differences between what's happening now and what's happened,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, since Columbine, and what happened before that, And

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<v Speaker 1>I'm trying to figure out as we look for answers

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<v Speaker 1>in a really difficult time. I think for a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of people, what is it about America that makes us

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<v Speaker 1>unique when it comes to these types of mass shootings?

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<v Speaker 1>And in the developed countries I should say, Okay, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>So I think a common misperception right now is that

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<v Speaker 1>mental health issues cause mass shootings, and I think, um,

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<v Speaker 1>what's true is that guns cause mass shootings. And so

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<v Speaker 1>you know, gun policy is going to be critical for

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<v Speaker 1>resolving that this problem in our country. Mental health care

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<v Speaker 1>is incredibly important and does need more attention, but that's

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<v Speaker 1>not the answer to reducing mass shootings. So what would

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<v Speaker 1>be the answer to reducing mass shootings? So I think

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<v Speaker 1>gun control policies are really critical. I mean, one of

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<v Speaker 1>the things that differentiates our country from others is um

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<v Speaker 1>the policies that we have around gun ownership, access to guns,

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<v Speaker 1>and so forth, And so I think that's a really

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<v Speaker 1>important area. And in fact, there are experts at the

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg School who study those policies specifically and can really

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<v Speaker 1>speak well to what's needed in this area. How do

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<v Speaker 1>you know when it's a crisis moment um, Dr Mendelssohn,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's not a case of just having a conversation

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<v Speaker 1>sin and that there's something more that needs to be done. Yeah, So,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think that one thing for parents to

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<v Speaker 1>watch for is always shifts in children's behavior. So if

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<v Speaker 1>you're noticing something really different, your child is suddenly withdrawing

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<v Speaker 1>from things they used to enjoy or having very different behavior,

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<v Speaker 1>seeming distressed in a different kind of way, that's something

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<v Speaker 1>to pay attention to. And I think having open communication

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<v Speaker 1>with children is always really important so that they do

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<v Speaker 1>feel comfortable opening up when you ask them about what's

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<v Speaker 1>going on. And that's another thing too, is to ask

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<v Speaker 1>don't assume that children will um broach the topic, but

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<v Speaker 1>if you make it a safe space to be able

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<v Speaker 1>to say when something is bothering them and that's sort

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<v Speaker 1>of ongoing in your family. Culture makes it easier when

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<v Speaker 1>crises do arise. Dr Medlson. I'm wondering, you know, as

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<v Speaker 1>as a parent, and people who listen to the show

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<v Speaker 1>regularly know that I have a three year old, and

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I sometimes talk with my wife if you know,

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<v Speaker 1>how do we know if he's acting like a normal

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<v Speaker 1>three year old versus uh, something that we should have

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<v Speaker 1>an eye on? Us relatively new parents? What is the

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<v Speaker 1>way to know that stuff without actually going to a

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<v Speaker 1>doctor and speaking to somebody who is an expert in

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<v Speaker 1>child behavior. Yeah, that's a great question. I do think

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<v Speaker 1>there's lots of great online resources through the American Academy

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<v Speaker 1>of Pediatrics and other sort of respected UM sources of

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<v Speaker 1>information on child development. UM. There are also great books

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<v Speaker 1>out there. But again, when when in real doubt, UM,

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<v Speaker 1>it is it is helpful to talk to a pediatrician

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<v Speaker 1>directly or a child mental health specialist? Um, it's you know, Unfortunately,

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<v Speaker 1>we are living in a society where I think most

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<v Speaker 1>would say more of this is going to come and

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<v Speaker 1>is going to be more stress on our younger population. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>Is it ever too young to start having these conversations. Again,

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<v Speaker 1>I think that as long as conversations are developmentally appropriate,

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<v Speaker 1>it so for instance, for younger kids, often fewer details

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<v Speaker 1>are better, keeping things more concrete and simple. UM. I

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<v Speaker 1>think if conversations are developed developmentally appropriate UM and do

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<v Speaker 1>not overwhelm children unnecessarily with information that makes them feel

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<v Speaker 1>sort of paralyzed and afraid, then I think it's really

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<v Speaker 1>healthy and in fact, UM crises or events that happen

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<v Speaker 1>in the world can be opportunities to talk to children

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<v Speaker 1>about how we can have positive impact on the world

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<v Speaker 1>and how we can identify what our values are and

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<v Speaker 1>work to change problems that come up in the world.

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<v Speaker 1>And that can be a way of helping empower young

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<v Speaker 1>people to think about how they can take action. Dr Mendelson,

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<v Speaker 1>before you, before we leave and wrap up, we did

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<v Speaker 1>want to get to that there was an act that

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<v Speaker 1>passed in Baltimore, and I think it's very relevant to

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<v Speaker 1>this conversation. Can you just fill us in on that.

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<v Speaker 1>Absolutely so, Baltimore past the Elijah Coming Healing City Act

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<v Speaker 1>to really address the widespread historical trauma and collective trauma

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<v Speaker 1>in Baltimore due to the effects of structural racism and

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<v Speaker 1>UM sort of historic wrongs that have been done, and

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<v Speaker 1>this initiative, this is the only citywide legislation path to

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<v Speaker 1>really create a trauma informed, trauma responsive city. That's a

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<v Speaker 1>really exciting opportunity UM. And there's a task force to

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<v Speaker 1>help oversee how this UM legislation really gets enacted. But

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<v Speaker 1>more importantly, there's real engagement with community UM. The idea

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<v Speaker 1>is to have a community movement UM that can really

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<v Speaker 1>promote healing in Baltimore. Hopefully this will be a model

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<v Speaker 1>for other cities. I think it's important to note that

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<v Speaker 1>while you know this, the school shootings have been devastating,

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<v Speaker 1>that many communities, such as those in Baltimore, have experienced

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<v Speaker 1>violence in an ongoing way. Dr mar Medalson directed the

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<v Speaker 1>Center for Adolescent Health at the Johns Hopkins at Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>School of Public Health. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>with Carol man Her and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic

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<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio. We want to get to the cover

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<v Speaker 1>story and the Bloomberg Big Take, and might we add

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<v Speaker 1>the cover image alone is a must see. The stories

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<v Speaker 1>about Larry Ellison, the Oracle billionaire. You know him well,

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<v Speaker 1>who's making his Hawaiian island more hospitable to the super rich,

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<v Speaker 1>but pushing out families that have been there for generations.

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<v Speaker 1>Sophia Alexander had the enviable task of traveling to Lanai

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<v Speaker 1>and spending some serious time in Hawaii. She's the author

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<v Speaker 1>of this cover story for Bloomberg Business which he's Wealth

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<v Speaker 1>Team reporter for Bloomberg News. She's with us in the

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Interactor Broker Studio. Joe Weber is the editor of

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week. He joins us in the Interactive Broker

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<v Speaker 1>Studio as well. Joel, I want to start with the

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<v Speaker 1>Lord of Lenai, the cover of Bloomberg Business Week. You

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<v Speaker 1>do each week, tell us how the sausage is made

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<v Speaker 1>when it comes to the cover, But this one is

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<v Speaker 1>particularly poignant. Uh So. It's a painting of Larry Ellison

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<v Speaker 1>um in a very you know, provocative kind of pose

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<v Speaker 1>of of um him sort of as like almost as

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<v Speaker 1>a conquisador um. And there's a very traditional Hawaiian vibe

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<v Speaker 1>to the artwork, which is also reflected in the artwork

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<v Speaker 1>that we've commissioned for the story on the inside. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>But you know, the Yeah, let's just say Larrialison did

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<v Speaker 1>not want to participate in the story. UM, so hence

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<v Speaker 1>why you have to recruit an artist to like make

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<v Speaker 1>a painting. Um. This one is a really interesting story though,

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<v Speaker 1>And honestly I knew nothing about this, although I have

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<v Speaker 1>been to Hawaii to the islands that look at Lanai

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<v Speaker 1>and you're like, WHOA, what's that island? And Lanai is

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<v Speaker 1>this amazing story in and of itself because it's basically

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<v Speaker 1>always been as long as it's been, um, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>sort of developed and civilized in the you know, quote

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<v Speaker 1>unquote modern terms. Um, it has really the ownership of

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<v Speaker 1>that highland has been in very few hands. It was

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<v Speaker 1>forever a dull plantation. Another dull billionaire basically bought it

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<v Speaker 1>um and then just a decade ago fell into Larrialison's hands.

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<v Speaker 1>And for all the conversations that happened about Hawaii, and

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<v Speaker 1>I think Mark Zuckerberg has gotten a ton of attention

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<v Speaker 1>for what he's sort of cobbled together. Nobody owns an island.

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<v Speaker 1>Larry Olson bought the whole thing. This island is hit

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<v Speaker 1>and he can basically do with it whatever he wants.

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<v Speaker 1>But that means the three thousand locals who live there

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<v Speaker 1>and they rent from him and basically owned from him.

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<v Speaker 1>Have found themselves in a really difficult position. So Sophie,

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<v Speaker 1>you went there, you talked to them. Are what are

0:12:23.280 --> 0:12:28.160
<v Speaker 1>they experiencing? Yes, So it's interesting because they're used to, uh,

0:12:28.200 --> 0:12:30.120
<v Speaker 1>their island being owned by a billionaire. There was a

0:12:30.120 --> 0:12:33.160
<v Speaker 1>billionaire before Larry Allison that owned it, David Murdoch. Um.

0:12:33.200 --> 0:12:36.240
<v Speaker 1>As you mentioned, he was the Dole chairman at the

0:12:36.240 --> 0:12:38.719
<v Speaker 1>time he took it over, I believe, um. But he

0:12:38.880 --> 0:12:41.360
<v Speaker 1>was what they now call a poor billionaire. He was

0:12:41.440 --> 0:12:44.920
<v Speaker 1>worth like a couple of billion dollars compared to Ellison's

0:12:45.080 --> 0:12:48.520
<v Speaker 1>roughly billion dollars on any given day. It's just this

0:12:48.760 --> 0:12:51.920
<v Speaker 1>amount of wealth is so unfathomable to pretty much anyone,

0:12:52.200 --> 0:12:54.440
<v Speaker 1>and so they're seeing firsthand what he can actually do

0:12:54.520 --> 0:12:58.439
<v Speaker 1>with it. Um. So Ellison, you know, he owns pretty

0:12:58.520 --> 0:13:01.240
<v Speaker 1>much everything, He controls pretty mu everything, and because of

0:13:01.280 --> 0:13:04.440
<v Speaker 1>his massive fortune, he can really like shape this island

0:13:04.440 --> 0:13:07.160
<v Speaker 1>into what he wants. The other billionaire, you know, was

0:13:07.200 --> 0:13:10.240
<v Speaker 1>letting the hotels run down, the community pool was writing down.

0:13:10.400 --> 0:13:12.360
<v Speaker 1>He just couldn't afford to keep it up. But it's

0:13:12.360 --> 0:13:14.600
<v Speaker 1>not a problem for Allison. So what is Allison doing.

0:13:14.720 --> 0:13:17.560
<v Speaker 1>Is he investing, is he propping everything up? And is

0:13:17.600 --> 0:13:22.560
<v Speaker 1>he embracing the locals. So it depends who who you ask.

0:13:22.760 --> 0:13:24.560
<v Speaker 1>There are some people who are really happy with what

0:13:24.640 --> 0:13:27.000
<v Speaker 1>he's done. You know, one person I talked to who

0:13:27.440 --> 0:13:29.800
<v Speaker 1>is in the story, Gail Allen. She says, you know,

0:13:30.160 --> 0:13:32.320
<v Speaker 1>he bought the grocery story and he turned into a

0:13:32.360 --> 0:13:35.319
<v Speaker 1>mini Whole Foods, which you know, she's very happy about,

0:13:35.400 --> 0:13:37.240
<v Speaker 1>and a lot of people would be very happy about.

0:13:37.280 --> 0:13:39.480
<v Speaker 1>But you know, the Whole Foods is like the marker

0:13:39.559 --> 0:13:42.520
<v Speaker 1>of gentrification. After all, Um and a lot of other

0:13:42.559 --> 0:13:46.040
<v Speaker 1>people on the island are more anxious because the problem is,

0:13:46.120 --> 0:13:49.400
<v Speaker 1>no one really knows what Larry's plans are. And he

0:13:49.679 --> 0:13:52.840
<v Speaker 1>is very you know, like behind the scenes. The old

0:13:52.920 --> 0:13:55.559
<v Speaker 1>billionaire who owned it, David Murdock, he was very involved

0:13:55.559 --> 0:13:57.600
<v Speaker 1>in the community. He talked to people in the community.

0:13:57.920 --> 0:14:00.000
<v Speaker 1>But Larry does not engage with the community at all.

0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:02.640
<v Speaker 1>He's never been into a community meeting. He basically let

0:14:02.800 --> 0:14:05.600
<v Speaker 1>his company do the talking for him, and even the

0:14:05.600 --> 0:14:07.640
<v Speaker 1>people who work there. When the people I talked to

0:14:07.760 --> 0:14:10.840
<v Speaker 1>said she has no idea what his plans are. So

0:14:11.160 --> 0:14:14.000
<v Speaker 1>you get that perspective, but you also get a perspective

0:14:14.240 --> 0:14:17.280
<v Speaker 1>of people who are affiliated with with him, right and

0:14:17.360 --> 0:14:20.000
<v Speaker 1>who who have worked for him. And so there's this

0:14:20.000 --> 0:14:22.160
<v Speaker 1>this other side of the conversation, which is he can

0:14:22.200 --> 0:14:25.040
<v Speaker 1>kind of do anything he wants, right, and so what

0:14:25.040 --> 0:14:27.880
<v Speaker 1>what what has he done on that side? Because he

0:14:27.960 --> 0:14:30.640
<v Speaker 1>has spent some money there. Yes, he's spent a bunch

0:14:30.640 --> 0:14:33.120
<v Speaker 1>of money. I mean one of the first things he did,

0:14:33.280 --> 0:14:35.720
<v Speaker 1>let's just start there, is build a noboo on the island.

0:14:35.880 --> 0:14:37.920
<v Speaker 1>He said at one point that when he arrived the

0:14:37.920 --> 0:14:42.560
<v Speaker 1>food with Yeah, exactly, Um, well there's actually the one

0:14:42.600 --> 0:14:45.320
<v Speaker 1>noboo and then there's sense a by no boo, So

0:14:45.360 --> 0:14:49.440
<v Speaker 1>there's actually that's for the mass exactly. You know, it's

0:14:49.480 --> 0:14:52.720
<v Speaker 1>like two no boos on one small island. Um. You know,

0:14:52.760 --> 0:14:55.560
<v Speaker 1>he renovated the four seasons hotels. He spent tens of

0:14:55.560 --> 0:14:58.720
<v Speaker 1>millions of dollars on that, and so now rooms at

0:14:58.760 --> 0:15:02.200
<v Speaker 1>the ocean side one on thousands, even tens of thousands

0:15:02.200 --> 0:15:05.280
<v Speaker 1>of dollars a night for some of the sweets. Still

0:15:05.360 --> 0:15:07.680
<v Speaker 1>is that where she stayed? When she staying? You know,

0:15:08.120 --> 0:15:12.000
<v Speaker 1>he hasn't seen the expense concluded answer that I'm just

0:15:12.000 --> 0:15:13.520
<v Speaker 1>gonna say, I haven't seen it. So I don't. I

0:15:13.520 --> 0:15:16.400
<v Speaker 1>don't know, keep going and so, and there's a bunch

0:15:16.400 --> 0:15:18.520
<v Speaker 1>of other stuff that he's doing. He is building a

0:15:18.520 --> 0:15:22.160
<v Speaker 1>new housing project because housing is huge issue on the island.

0:15:22.480 --> 0:15:24.560
<v Speaker 1>There's a bunch of stuff he wants to do, but

0:15:24.600 --> 0:15:27.720
<v Speaker 1>there's nowhere for these construction workers to live. Um. And

0:15:27.760 --> 0:15:31.000
<v Speaker 1>then more recently, most recently, he's also building a Monches

0:15:31.080 --> 0:15:34.000
<v Speaker 1>Story School. And the big question is whose kids are

0:15:34.080 --> 0:15:36.240
<v Speaker 1>those for? Well, I thought was really poignant part of

0:15:36.240 --> 0:15:39.360
<v Speaker 1>the story when you included the question that one of

0:15:39.400 --> 0:15:41.320
<v Speaker 1>your one of the people you featured in the story

0:15:41.360 --> 0:15:44.440
<v Speaker 1>asked about the research that they did with the mon

0:15:44.520 --> 0:15:48.440
<v Speaker 1>A Story School. Is their communication with the established school

0:15:48.480 --> 0:15:51.520
<v Speaker 1>to make sure that the curriculum actually melds with when

0:15:51.560 --> 0:15:54.040
<v Speaker 1>these kids graduate and go there. How does that speak

0:15:54.080 --> 0:15:58.360
<v Speaker 1>to the way that what's happening on the island isn't

0:15:58.400 --> 0:16:02.880
<v Speaker 1>perhaps necessary necessary early organic. Yeah, I mean communication or

0:16:02.960 --> 0:16:07.280
<v Speaker 1>lack thereof is the biggest concern among residents, even those

0:16:07.320 --> 0:16:09.600
<v Speaker 1>who are more in favor of him. They just don't

0:16:09.680 --> 0:16:12.800
<v Speaker 1>really know what's happening at anyone time. Like so the

0:16:12.840 --> 0:16:18.040
<v Speaker 1>rumor mill or coconut wireless as it's called on the island. Yeah,

0:16:18.680 --> 0:16:21.440
<v Speaker 1>is you know, people depend on it for their news.

0:16:21.560 --> 0:16:26.520
<v Speaker 1>He owns the community newspaper now too. So, um, we

0:16:26.560 --> 0:16:30.480
<v Speaker 1>didn't talk about some other exclusive reporting relating to Tom Cruise.

0:16:30.680 --> 0:16:34.080
<v Speaker 1>What happened? What happened when Tom came to visit? Yeah,

0:16:34.160 --> 0:16:36.760
<v Speaker 1>so this was It's a funny story because if you

0:16:36.800 --> 0:16:38.560
<v Speaker 1>just bring up with anyone on the island, if you're like,

0:16:38.600 --> 0:16:40.960
<v Speaker 1>do you remember when Tom Cruise visited, They're like, oh, yeah,

0:16:41.040 --> 0:16:43.440
<v Speaker 1>and he flipped his car and you know, a total

0:16:43.520 --> 0:16:48.480
<v Speaker 1>to crash it. Um his car, not his car, Larry's car. Um.

0:16:48.560 --> 0:16:52.640
<v Speaker 1>So back in around when Tom Cruise visited the island,

0:16:52.640 --> 0:16:56.320
<v Speaker 1>he was a guest of David Ellison, who uh Tom

0:16:56.400 --> 0:16:59.800
<v Speaker 1>works with, Uh it's Larry Son on their movies and

0:17:00.000 --> 0:17:03.720
<v Speaker 1>itating Top Gun, Maverick, the the new blockbuster. I heard

0:17:03.760 --> 0:17:06.879
<v Speaker 1>of it. Um when he came to visit. He was

0:17:06.960 --> 0:17:10.639
<v Speaker 1>using one of Larry's cars and he was on one

0:17:10.680 --> 0:17:13.639
<v Speaker 1>of the dirt roads in Lenai and he flipped it,

0:17:13.840 --> 0:17:17.200
<v Speaker 1>totaled the car, you know, and that kind of thing

0:17:17.400 --> 0:17:20.919
<v Speaker 1>just is never reported anywhere because this is Larry's island.

0:17:21.000 --> 0:17:23.720
<v Speaker 1>You know. They basically called his company were like come

0:17:23.760 --> 0:17:27.360
<v Speaker 1>clean it up. Then they did. They exactly they smashed

0:17:27.359 --> 0:17:30.840
<v Speaker 1>the car, recycled it, and then that's that and no

0:17:30.840 --> 0:17:32.359
<v Speaker 1>one ever hears of it again. As I said at

0:17:32.359 --> 0:17:34.160
<v Speaker 1>the top, so obsessed with this story. Check it out.

0:17:34.200 --> 0:17:38.040
<v Speaker 1>It's a great read online interactive stuff going on, Sophie.

0:17:38.040 --> 0:17:40.440
<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much, Sophie, Alexander Wealth Team reporter and

0:17:40.480 --> 0:17:44.080
<v Speaker 1>of course Jill Weber, the editor of Business Week. This

0:17:44.400 --> 0:17:48.120
<v Speaker 1>is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick

0:17:48.160 --> 0:17:52.240
<v Speaker 1>Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. A story that's among

0:17:52.320 --> 0:17:54.480
<v Speaker 1>our most ready the most read in the last eight hours.

0:17:54.480 --> 0:17:56.040
<v Speaker 1>Now is it right now? Yeah? I just checked. I

0:17:56.280 --> 0:17:58.400
<v Speaker 1>know it's been like moving up there. It's about how

0:17:58.480 --> 0:18:00.399
<v Speaker 1>one day ahead of the CPI printing unit, it states

0:18:00.400 --> 0:18:03.920
<v Speaker 1>inflation is topping ten on key items that Americans just

0:18:04.040 --> 0:18:06.879
<v Speaker 1>cannot avoid. I mean, I don't know about you, food

0:18:06.880 --> 0:18:09.159
<v Speaker 1>and grant gas. If you're listening right now, you know

0:18:09.240 --> 0:18:12.080
<v Speaker 1>exactly what we are talking about. Olivia Rockman is on

0:18:12.320 --> 0:18:15.040
<v Speaker 1>the story. She's US Economy reporter for Bloomberg News. She's

0:18:15.040 --> 0:18:17.840
<v Speaker 1>with this right now in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker's studios.

0:18:18.160 --> 0:18:19.719
<v Speaker 1>So I read this story and I thought, and I've

0:18:19.720 --> 0:18:21.760
<v Speaker 1>said this throughout the program tod Olivia. This story has

0:18:21.760 --> 0:18:24.240
<v Speaker 1>Carol's name written all over it because she thinks it's

0:18:24.240 --> 0:18:26.600
<v Speaker 1>like a waste of time to strip out food and

0:18:26.720 --> 0:18:29.240
<v Speaker 1>energy when it comes to inflation, because who's not using

0:18:29.320 --> 0:18:32.120
<v Speaker 1>energy and who's not eating food. For the longest time,

0:18:32.200 --> 0:18:35.880
<v Speaker 1>economists were stripping this out because energy for a month

0:18:35.880 --> 0:18:38.240
<v Speaker 1>at a time would be volatile, or food would randomly

0:18:38.280 --> 0:18:40.840
<v Speaker 1>spike and then come back down because of hurricane or

0:18:40.880 --> 0:18:42.960
<v Speaker 1>like just one off things that would happen. But we're

0:18:43.000 --> 0:18:46.119
<v Speaker 1>in this environment now where everything is spiking at the

0:18:46.160 --> 0:18:48.679
<v Speaker 1>same time, and so to just say, oh, those are

0:18:48.760 --> 0:18:51.119
<v Speaker 1>volatile and we're not going to look at them, is

0:18:51.160 --> 0:18:55.200
<v Speaker 1>it isn't working in this very pandemic inflationary environment. The

0:18:55.240 --> 0:18:57.400
<v Speaker 1>other thing is we're talking before we got go. I mean,

0:18:57.600 --> 0:19:01.240
<v Speaker 1>oil isn't everything to transport Haiti in the moving around

0:19:01.320 --> 0:19:03.800
<v Speaker 1>the world. Like, how do you get away from it?

0:19:03.880 --> 0:19:05.959
<v Speaker 1>I said to you before we got going. Every time

0:19:06.000 --> 0:19:11.959
<v Speaker 1>I fill up, where do you go? I'd fill up

0:19:11.960 --> 0:19:14.560
<v Speaker 1>my take and I'm like, oh, but you know what,

0:19:14.640 --> 0:19:16.760
<v Speaker 1>this doesn't cost me anything because it's not a part

0:19:16.760 --> 0:19:19.439
<v Speaker 1>of the core. I mean, I don't know, but that

0:19:19.480 --> 0:19:21.120
<v Speaker 1>credit card statement comes at the end of the month

0:19:21.160 --> 0:19:24.640
<v Speaker 1>and it's there, Um, is there a rethink or dig

0:19:24.680 --> 0:19:26.439
<v Speaker 1>a little bit more into your story and what you

0:19:26.440 --> 0:19:28.879
<v Speaker 1>wanted to get to in reporting this out. So a

0:19:28.880 --> 0:19:30.320
<v Speaker 1>lot of this comes down to what the FED is

0:19:30.320 --> 0:19:32.680
<v Speaker 1>watching when they're setting policy. And for the longest time,

0:19:32.720 --> 0:19:34.920
<v Speaker 1>the FED really did only look at the core because

0:19:34.920 --> 0:19:37.360
<v Speaker 1>they didn't have to worry about these categories. They would fluctuate,

0:19:37.400 --> 0:19:39.760
<v Speaker 1>come back down. At this point, the FED has no

0:19:39.880 --> 0:19:43.600
<v Speaker 1>choice but to look at food, energy and electricity and say,

0:19:43.880 --> 0:19:45.840
<v Speaker 1>how is this impacting Americans? And are we going to

0:19:45.960 --> 0:19:49.119
<v Speaker 1>take action on these categories that maybe before we would

0:19:49.119 --> 0:19:51.159
<v Speaker 1>write off. And it does seem like, based on what

0:19:51.200 --> 0:19:54.040
<v Speaker 1>we've heard from Powell, that they are looking at those

0:19:54.080 --> 0:19:56.760
<v Speaker 1>categories more than they had ever in the past. We

0:19:56.800 --> 0:20:00.280
<v Speaker 1>spoke to Insignerella Global macro strategist here at Bloomberg News

0:20:00.320 --> 0:20:02.600
<v Speaker 1>a little earlier in the program. He gave us his

0:20:02.600 --> 0:20:05.160
<v Speaker 1>predictions for tomorrow. He's not looking at year over year,

0:20:05.160 --> 0:20:07.280
<v Speaker 1>he's looking at month to month, and he says, if

0:20:07.320 --> 0:20:10.480
<v Speaker 1>we see a print that's too hot, the market is

0:20:10.480 --> 0:20:13.360
<v Speaker 1>going to go crazy month to month because it's expecting

0:20:13.359 --> 0:20:15.400
<v Speaker 1>seven tons of a percent. If it see something hotter

0:20:15.440 --> 0:20:17.440
<v Speaker 1>than that, then that's going to be bad news. Talk

0:20:17.480 --> 0:20:20.639
<v Speaker 1>to me about expectations. We have the Bloomberg economists, you know,

0:20:21.119 --> 0:20:23.359
<v Speaker 1>analysis and what we think it's going to be. What

0:20:23.480 --> 0:20:25.760
<v Speaker 1>is your reporting tell you? The economists that I've talked

0:20:25.760 --> 0:20:27.920
<v Speaker 1>to you this week have all said risks are to

0:20:27.960 --> 0:20:30.960
<v Speaker 1>the upside on the print, both for month over month

0:20:31.040 --> 0:20:33.600
<v Speaker 1>and year over year. That's on the headline figure, so

0:20:33.640 --> 0:20:36.959
<v Speaker 1>that that's the ones that include food, energy, and electricity.

0:20:37.240 --> 0:20:41.000
<v Speaker 1>The core may actually cool because we may see apparel, furniture,

0:20:41.080 --> 0:20:45.760
<v Speaker 1>kind of discretionary inventors. Yeah, but the restart to the

0:20:45.840 --> 0:20:48.160
<v Speaker 1>upside because of what gases are doing. We have gas

0:20:48.200 --> 0:20:51.440
<v Speaker 1>almost at five dollars a gallon nationwide. You've got food

0:20:51.440 --> 0:20:55.520
<v Speaker 1>spiking because of Ukraine everything. So if anything, we might

0:20:55.560 --> 0:20:59.000
<v Speaker 1>see something hotter according to economists, Um, and the cool

0:20:59.000 --> 0:21:01.080
<v Speaker 1>offt doesn't look great. And I guess you know we've

0:21:01.119 --> 0:21:02.919
<v Speaker 1>talked about this, Tim and I certainly have, and with

0:21:02.920 --> 0:21:06.120
<v Speaker 1>our TV colleagues and our simulcast, just the broader impact

0:21:06.160 --> 0:21:08.520
<v Speaker 1>that this is having on Americans, right we we've seen

0:21:08.600 --> 0:21:11.679
<v Speaker 1>kind of these sobering stories of people making choices. I

0:21:11.720 --> 0:21:13.679
<v Speaker 1>was actually checking out. I mean, we talked about this

0:21:13.720 --> 0:21:15.359
<v Speaker 1>earlier and I was buying a few things at the

0:21:15.359 --> 0:21:17.840
<v Speaker 1>grocery store in there, buying some paper towels, and it

0:21:17.920 --> 0:21:20.240
<v Speaker 1>was so expensive. I'm like, I don't really need these

0:21:20.320 --> 0:21:23.760
<v Speaker 1>right now, that's ridiculous. You know. You do start to think, okay,

0:21:23.840 --> 0:21:26.320
<v Speaker 1>I'll put this back, and you make some choices, and

0:21:26.400 --> 0:21:30.360
<v Speaker 1>for some the choices are really hard, especially low income Americans. Yeah,

0:21:30.400 --> 0:21:33.160
<v Speaker 1>and we're almost going back to the K shaped recovery

0:21:33.200 --> 0:21:35.480
<v Speaker 1>that we had talked about so often in we talked

0:21:35.480 --> 0:21:37.840
<v Speaker 1>about with Peter Atwater William and Mary a Lot who

0:21:37.880 --> 0:21:41.600
<v Speaker 1>coined that phrase. Yeah, so you've got low income consumers

0:21:41.720 --> 0:21:44.560
<v Speaker 1>really feeling the pinch of this inflation because the majority

0:21:44.600 --> 0:21:47.520
<v Speaker 1>of the spending is on these necessities versus hire income

0:21:47.520 --> 0:21:51.680
<v Speaker 1>Americans who also spend on discretionary categories. So real spending

0:21:51.760 --> 0:21:55.280
<v Speaker 1>is actually pretty strong. Still, well, that fall potentially, but

0:21:55.400 --> 0:21:57.800
<v Speaker 1>we do see the dichotomy the reason we do care

0:21:57.840 --> 0:21:59.800
<v Speaker 1>about this too, and court we could go on for

0:21:59.840 --> 0:22:02.280
<v Speaker 1>this core versus non core, but I mean, at some point,

0:22:02.359 --> 0:22:04.600
<v Speaker 1>like we just said, you do make some choices, and

0:22:04.840 --> 0:22:06.879
<v Speaker 1>we're so concerned. Right now, we start from the ECB

0:22:06.960 --> 0:22:09.679
<v Speaker 1>in Christine Leguard, right, we're worried about Okay, people are

0:22:09.720 --> 0:22:11.960
<v Speaker 1>having to make choices where do they cut back and

0:22:12.000 --> 0:22:14.440
<v Speaker 1>how does that lead to an economic slowdown? And that's

0:22:14.520 --> 0:22:18.280
<v Speaker 1>just the question, right consumer spending in this current environment

0:22:18.800 --> 0:22:21.360
<v Speaker 1>is I think what will be the straw to break

0:22:21.359 --> 0:22:23.400
<v Speaker 1>the camel's back in terms of recession, And the past

0:22:23.480 --> 0:22:26.840
<v Speaker 1>has been financial conditions, Probably not now right, because it's

0:22:26.880 --> 0:22:28.920
<v Speaker 1>been so strong, right, and it's been going because of

0:22:28.960 --> 0:22:31.840
<v Speaker 1>all the stimulus. Some darring figures in Your Peace Olivia

0:22:32.720 --> 0:22:35.359
<v Speaker 1>of households found it's somewhat are very difficult to pay

0:22:35.440 --> 0:22:38.600
<v Speaker 1>for usual household expenses, according to the US Census Bureau

0:22:38.640 --> 0:22:40.600
<v Speaker 1>survey conducted in late April and early made that compares

0:22:40.640 --> 0:22:43.240
<v Speaker 1>to at the same time last year. How much worse

0:22:43.320 --> 0:22:47.160
<v Speaker 1>is it going to get? We know that energy, food

0:22:47.359 --> 0:22:50.159
<v Speaker 1>and electricity are expected to continue to rise this summer,

0:22:50.440 --> 0:22:52.520
<v Speaker 1>and that's at a time when people drive more in

0:22:52.560 --> 0:22:55.280
<v Speaker 1>the summer, people need air conditioning in this summer, and

0:22:55.400 --> 0:22:59.439
<v Speaker 1>so all predictions show that the summer could be probably

0:22:59.480 --> 0:23:02.600
<v Speaker 1>the worst time of the environment that we're in. There

0:23:02.640 --> 0:23:05.240
<v Speaker 1>are some predictions that things could get better in the fall,

0:23:05.400 --> 0:23:06.879
<v Speaker 1>and the good news is we do still have a

0:23:06.920 --> 0:23:09.560
<v Speaker 1>strong labor market, and so that's what we need to

0:23:09.600 --> 0:23:12.080
<v Speaker 1>be watching really closely to have an understanding of where

0:23:12.119 --> 0:23:14.000
<v Speaker 1>people are going to be, because if the labor market

0:23:14.040 --> 0:23:16.760
<v Speaker 1>also weekends, we really are going to have trouble for

0:23:16.840 --> 0:23:19.480
<v Speaker 1>some Americans. And just understand folks that just because there's

0:23:19.480 --> 0:23:21.640
<v Speaker 1>a core cp I, it's like, oh okay, that doesn't

0:23:21.680 --> 0:23:23.359
<v Speaker 1>impact me. I'm going to still go out and spend.

0:23:23.480 --> 0:23:26.479
<v Speaker 1>It's just not real. And I think very very timely

0:23:26.560 --> 0:23:29.560
<v Speaker 1>in terms of the conversation, the Fed though, pays attention

0:23:29.600 --> 0:23:33.360
<v Speaker 1>to CPI or is it really pc So historically pc

0:23:33.680 --> 0:23:35.760
<v Speaker 1>was their measure, but they have no choice but to

0:23:35.800 --> 0:23:40.119
<v Speaker 1>look at all the measures given the taking the day

0:23:40.160 --> 0:23:43.000
<v Speaker 1>off tomorrow. I don't know what schedule. I don't think

0:23:43.000 --> 0:23:45.520
<v Speaker 1>it's ignoring it. Media calling they want to know, and

0:23:45.560 --> 0:23:47.399
<v Speaker 1>they're like, no, no, no, no, it's it's pc E.

0:23:47.920 --> 0:23:50.600
<v Speaker 1>I'm just trying to, like, you know, um, Olivia, thank you,

0:23:50.720 --> 0:23:52.800
<v Speaker 1>thank you. I appreciate it. This is right our most

0:23:52.840 --> 0:23:55.199
<v Speaker 1>read story on the Bloomberg Olivia Rockman U s economy

0:23:55.240 --> 0:23:58.000
<v Speaker 1>reporter at Bloomberg News about inflation topping ten percent in

0:23:58.040 --> 0:24:00.600
<v Speaker 1>those key items that I gotta tell you we just need.

0:24:02.800 --> 0:24:09.160
<v Speaker 1>I'm broadly oh, journal, yeah, but you let me drive.

0:24:09.440 --> 0:24:13.680
<v Speaker 1>Oh no, no, no, no home honey, please, I'll do

0:24:13.800 --> 0:24:19.920
<v Speaker 1>the right gravels. I want to drive. It's a good question.

0:24:23.680 --> 0:24:28.920
<v Speaker 1>This is the drive to the clothes up down on

0:24:29.160 --> 0:24:31.400
<v Speaker 1>Bluebird Radio. I just got about ten and a half

0:24:31.440 --> 0:24:34.640
<v Speaker 1>minutes left in today's trading session, getting ready to soon

0:24:34.680 --> 0:24:37.280
<v Speaker 1>wrap up this Thursday trading day. Man, Tim, we are

0:24:37.440 --> 0:24:39.440
<v Speaker 1>near our loads of the session. Let's get into it

0:24:39.520 --> 0:24:42.520
<v Speaker 1>with ryand Trick, chief market strategist at LPL Financially, joins

0:24:42.560 --> 0:24:44.439
<v Speaker 1>us on the phone from Charlotte, North Carolina. Ryan, good

0:24:44.480 --> 0:24:46.000
<v Speaker 1>to have you back with us. A really good day

0:24:46.280 --> 0:24:48.040
<v Speaker 1>to have you with us as well, because you look

0:24:48.080 --> 0:24:50.440
<v Speaker 1>at technicals where the technicals you're keeping an eye on.

0:24:50.520 --> 0:24:54.200
<v Speaker 1>Is there anything to be optimistic about? Yeah, Tim and Carol,

0:24:54.240 --> 0:24:55.800
<v Speaker 1>thanks for having me back. You know, the truth is

0:24:55.840 --> 0:24:58.600
<v Speaker 1>this guy's we've had some over soul bounces, but we're

0:24:58.640 --> 0:25:01.439
<v Speaker 1>not quite seeing historically which it tend to see at

0:25:01.480 --> 0:25:03.640
<v Speaker 1>a major low, which is like, let's get a little

0:25:03.640 --> 0:25:08.119
<v Speaker 1>geeky on you like updates, up volume days, you tend

0:25:08.160 --> 0:25:10.720
<v Speaker 1>to see clusters of those. We haven't quite seen those

0:25:10.760 --> 0:25:12.240
<v Speaker 1>clusters yet, So we all make at the end of

0:25:12.280 --> 0:25:14.000
<v Speaker 1>the world, we don't think We don't see a recession,

0:25:14.040 --> 0:25:17.159
<v Speaker 1>we don't see major selling weakness from here. But is

0:25:17.400 --> 0:25:20.640
<v Speaker 1>May nineteenth the lows that's the big question, of course,

0:25:20.720 --> 0:25:22.840
<v Speaker 1>And just think of this. It's a mid term year.

0:25:22.960 --> 0:25:25.600
<v Speaker 1>We talked a lot about that. Mid term years historically

0:25:25.680 --> 0:25:29.600
<v Speaker 1>don't bottom find their ultimate bottom until about August fourteenth.

0:25:29.680 --> 0:25:32.520
<v Speaker 1>On average. Only twice in history has the low for

0:25:32.560 --> 0:25:35.400
<v Speaker 1>the year taking place earlier than May nineteenth. Not saying

0:25:35.400 --> 0:25:37.800
<v Speaker 1>that it couldn't have happened, but just be aware that

0:25:38.000 --> 0:25:40.440
<v Speaker 1>maybe a little summer bounce, but maybe a third quarter

0:25:40.520 --> 0:25:43.040
<v Speaker 1>low is is probably what we're what we're likely going

0:25:43.080 --> 0:25:46.640
<v Speaker 1>to see this year. All right, When does a technician,

0:25:47.480 --> 0:25:52.119
<v Speaker 1>technical and analyst like yourself just kind of say, oh,

0:25:52.240 --> 0:25:54.680
<v Speaker 1>come on, this is an environment we really have never

0:25:54.760 --> 0:25:57.320
<v Speaker 1>lived here them before. I can't even look at history

0:25:57.920 --> 0:26:02.320
<v Speaker 1>to figure out what's gonna up and next. Yeah, Carol,

0:26:02.359 --> 0:26:04.800
<v Speaker 1>you're right, I mean inflation, hoart of your eyes and inflation,

0:26:04.920 --> 0:26:07.240
<v Speaker 1>the FED rying to shut down, coming off the heels

0:26:07.240 --> 0:26:09.600
<v Speaker 1>of a hundred year pandemic, all those things. Yes, but

0:26:09.720 --> 0:26:11.520
<v Speaker 1>you know what we also started to see earlier year

0:26:11.840 --> 0:26:16.240
<v Speaker 1>defensive things lead like utilities like healthcare, like staples, kind

0:26:16.240 --> 0:26:18.639
<v Speaker 1>of hallmarks they're not necessarily a bear market, but just

0:26:18.720 --> 0:26:20.639
<v Speaker 1>more of a risk off scenario. So as long as

0:26:20.680 --> 0:26:23.440
<v Speaker 1>we keep seeing that, it's just something to um, something

0:26:23.480 --> 0:26:25.800
<v Speaker 1>be aware of. Now. Also, Carol, you know this was

0:26:25.840 --> 0:26:27.840
<v Speaker 1>the fourth worst start to year. So what does it

0:26:27.880 --> 0:26:31.680
<v Speaker 1>mean when? What does it mean when defensive leads? Yeah,

0:26:32.080 --> 0:26:34.600
<v Speaker 1>we simply that. Yeah, when you see the more defensive

0:26:34.640 --> 0:26:37.439
<v Speaker 1>things like your staples and utilities leading, that's just they

0:26:37.600 --> 0:26:39.879
<v Speaker 1>the market's way of saying, listen, something could be a

0:26:39.920 --> 0:26:43.320
<v Speaker 1>little off. Maybe let's let's be slightly more defensive here.

0:26:43.720 --> 0:26:45.639
<v Speaker 1>Um as you know, like we saw last year, I

0:26:45.800 --> 0:26:48.560
<v Speaker 1>when when the tech leads and communications lead, that's more

0:26:48.600 --> 0:26:51.920
<v Speaker 1>of a healthier market really starting last November. But was

0:26:52.000 --> 0:26:54.040
<v Speaker 1>it healthy last year or was it a case of

0:26:54.160 --> 0:26:58.960
<v Speaker 1>so much liquidity in the system chasing the momentum players. Well,

0:26:59.000 --> 0:27:00.680
<v Speaker 1>well it could could be, you're right, could be a

0:27:00.720 --> 0:27:02.560
<v Speaker 1>little bit of both. I guess the profits still count

0:27:02.560 --> 0:27:04.200
<v Speaker 1>from that point of view. But but you're right it

0:27:04.800 --> 0:27:07.480
<v Speaker 1>it was healthy. But starting late last year, we started

0:27:07.480 --> 0:27:09.520
<v Speaker 1>to see something something as simple as it advanced the

0:27:09.600 --> 0:27:11.920
<v Speaker 1>kline line to is how many stocks going up versus down?

0:27:12.560 --> 0:27:14.879
<v Speaker 1>That peaked late last year and started a weekend as well.

0:27:14.960 --> 0:27:16.840
<v Speaker 1>So these are some cracks that were there. But I

0:27:16.880 --> 0:27:18.639
<v Speaker 1>just want a point one one positive thing. I don

0:27:18.680 --> 0:27:20.520
<v Speaker 1>want to sound too negative if you're one positive thing.

0:27:20.800 --> 0:27:22.879
<v Speaker 1>This is the fourth worst start to year ever for

0:27:22.960 --> 0:27:25.879
<v Speaker 1>the SMP, five hundreds of the one hundredth day, all right,

0:27:26.040 --> 0:27:28.639
<v Speaker 1>that just happened recently. The rest of the year, when

0:27:28.680 --> 0:27:32.520
<v Speaker 1>you look at the five worst start ever, the rest

0:27:32.560 --> 0:27:34.840
<v Speaker 1>of the year is up about nineteen percent on average

0:27:34.880 --> 0:27:36.639
<v Speaker 1>for the SMP. So we've been here before. We had

0:27:36.720 --> 0:27:42.640
<v Speaker 1>rough stars before. So then again, okay, wait, okay, fourth

0:27:42.680 --> 0:27:45.080
<v Speaker 1>worst start to year. The technical analyst Carol, I just

0:27:45.119 --> 0:27:47.399
<v Speaker 1>don't type in right fast enough. Fourth worst start to

0:27:47.440 --> 0:27:49.640
<v Speaker 1>a year for the SMP as of the hundredth day,

0:27:49.720 --> 0:27:52.000
<v Speaker 1>and then what usually happens to talk to you, Yeah, well,

0:27:52.080 --> 0:27:53.560
<v Speaker 1>the rest of the year has been higher five of

0:27:53.640 --> 0:27:56.560
<v Speaker 1>the last five times with the worst five starts ever

0:27:56.640 --> 0:28:00.160
<v Speaker 1>they were thirty two, thirty, ninety sixty two, and Evan,

0:28:00.520 --> 0:28:02.840
<v Speaker 1>those were the five war starts ever as a day,

0:28:02.840 --> 0:28:04.840
<v Speaker 1>and the rest of the year was higher every time

0:28:04.920 --> 0:28:07.320
<v Speaker 1>of nineteen percent on average. So we've seen some bad starts,

0:28:07.359 --> 0:28:09.320
<v Speaker 1>so we were you know, this has been a rough year,

0:28:09.359 --> 0:28:11.639
<v Speaker 1>no doubt. With bonds not participating in all the problems

0:28:11.680 --> 0:28:15.200
<v Speaker 1>we've had. But still we don't see a recession near Carol.

0:28:15.200 --> 0:28:17.560
<v Speaker 1>And historically we don't have a recession. You attend the

0:28:17.560 --> 0:28:21.560
<v Speaker 1>bottom around nineteen or twenty percent, right, nineteen seventy six,

0:28:21.840 --> 0:28:25.480
<v Speaker 1>two thousand, eleven, ninety eight, and twenty eighteen, all years

0:28:25.560 --> 0:28:29.399
<v Speaker 1>without a recession with a nineteen percent correction. We just

0:28:29.480 --> 0:28:32.119
<v Speaker 1>corrected nineteen percent on the SMP. So history don't repeat.

0:28:32.119 --> 0:28:34.200
<v Speaker 1>But at rhyme, said Mark Twain, we think we're in

0:28:34.240 --> 0:28:37.760
<v Speaker 1>the range where this is still opportunity for investors. When

0:28:37.800 --> 0:28:39.360
<v Speaker 1>all is said and done with this year, maybe we

0:28:39.360 --> 0:28:41.440
<v Speaker 1>don't go back to positive, but there we could be

0:28:41.480 --> 0:28:42.720
<v Speaker 1>a good deal higher than when we are in our

0:28:42.720 --> 0:28:45.200
<v Speaker 1>opinions right here with the equities, all right, give us

0:28:45.200 --> 0:28:47.080
<v Speaker 1>some other things to be optimistic about. Or actually, you

0:28:47.120 --> 0:28:49.160
<v Speaker 1>know what, you just gave us some optimism. Talk about

0:28:49.560 --> 0:28:51.520
<v Speaker 1>recessionary risks here. I know you said we don't see

0:28:51.560 --> 0:28:54.520
<v Speaker 1>a recession. Why do you not see a recession? Yeah,

0:28:54.560 --> 0:28:56.360
<v Speaker 1>well we see a slowdown here, Tim, I mean, like

0:28:56.360 --> 0:28:57.640
<v Speaker 1>a lot of people. All right, we came into this

0:28:57.720 --> 0:29:00.280
<v Speaker 1>year saying four percent GDP growth. We're down to two

0:29:00.280 --> 0:29:02.240
<v Speaker 1>and a half percent. The truth is, we still need

0:29:02.280 --> 0:29:04.240
<v Speaker 1>the consumer is pretty strong, and I know what Target

0:29:04.320 --> 0:29:06.600
<v Speaker 1>has said and Walmart has said, but it's still in

0:29:06.680 --> 0:29:09.160
<v Speaker 1>consumer confidence. I mean, the Michigan consumer confidence in near

0:29:09.160 --> 0:29:11.959
<v Speaker 1>eleven year lows. But we're still seeing some pretty solid

0:29:12.120 --> 0:29:14.360
<v Speaker 1>um solid spending. I mean, I travel a good deal,

0:29:14.400 --> 0:29:15.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, I know you guys do I factual By

0:29:15.880 --> 0:29:17.600
<v Speaker 1>the way, guys, I'll be in New York this Monday

0:29:17.680 --> 0:29:20.320
<v Speaker 1>for the first time since the pandemic, so right away,

0:29:20.360 --> 0:29:22.560
<v Speaker 1>you know things are starting to open up. And the

0:29:22.840 --> 0:29:26.880
<v Speaker 1>truth is, you know, everyone bought stuff right, goods likely

0:29:27.000 --> 0:29:29.640
<v Speaker 1>Goods inflation likely is already peaked, but it's the services

0:29:29.680 --> 0:29:31.440
<v Speaker 1>inflation that might peak over the next month or so.

0:29:31.600 --> 0:29:33.840
<v Speaker 1>And lots of the services are still still strong in

0:29:33.920 --> 0:29:36.240
<v Speaker 1>our opinion. And just one more positive thing, I think

0:29:36.320 --> 0:29:38.320
<v Speaker 1>look at backlogs, right, some of the recent data we've

0:29:38.320 --> 0:29:41.800
<v Speaker 1>seen in backlogs with supply chains, we've seen some big improvements.

0:29:41.840 --> 0:29:44.040
<v Speaker 1>It's not perfect by any means, but again, that big

0:29:44.080 --> 0:29:46.800
<v Speaker 1>CPI number, every's gonna talk about it. We're optimistic that

0:29:46.840 --> 0:29:49.240
<v Speaker 1>we're seeing some improving backlogs in time to delivery and

0:29:49.320 --> 0:29:51.320
<v Speaker 1>some of those things that are saying, hey, it's light

0:29:51.400 --> 0:29:53.960
<v Speaker 1>aga into the tunnel, and inflation likely is gonna peak

0:29:54.040 --> 0:29:56.360
<v Speaker 1>quite soon, and that could be the positive driver for

0:29:56.800 --> 0:30:00.200
<v Speaker 1>confidence um the second half of this year, depending on it.

0:30:00.560 --> 0:30:02.440
<v Speaker 1>Is a glass half full of the glass half empty

0:30:02.440 --> 0:30:05.520
<v Speaker 1>when it comes to financial markets in the equity trade. Well,

0:30:05.880 --> 0:30:08.320
<v Speaker 1>by nature, I'm a glass half full type. I knew

0:30:08.360 --> 0:30:10.040
<v Speaker 1>that about you, Ryan. I was gonna say there's no

0:30:10.160 --> 0:30:12.840
<v Speaker 1>way he's going to go with classes. When you look

0:30:12.880 --> 0:30:16.000
<v Speaker 1>at anything is possible. But when you look at the charts,

0:30:16.080 --> 0:30:21.320
<v Speaker 1>you still feel that way. Yeah, sure, yeah, no, we do.

0:30:21.520 --> 0:30:24.720
<v Speaker 1>I mean, listen, we knew this was a midtermor community year.

0:30:24.800 --> 0:30:28.240
<v Speaker 1>Your Averridge midtermure pulls back seventeen percent after a hundred

0:30:28.280 --> 0:30:30.760
<v Speaker 1>and fifteen percent rally. It's only a five percent correction

0:30:30.840 --> 0:30:32.920
<v Speaker 1>all last year. It made sense to us it wouldn't

0:30:32.920 --> 0:30:36.120
<v Speaker 1>be as easy. We didn't see quite this much weakness.

0:30:36.160 --> 0:30:38.040
<v Speaker 1>I'll be honest this soon in the year. But the

0:30:38.160 --> 0:30:41.520
<v Speaker 1>truth again is is negative sentiment is all over the place.

0:30:41.560 --> 0:30:44.640
<v Speaker 1>Everybody's worried, and that makes sense because of what's happened.

0:30:44.680 --> 0:30:46.520
<v Speaker 1>But let's not forget. You know, when everyone's on one

0:30:46.560 --> 0:30:48.520
<v Speaker 1>side of the boat, the opportunities on the other. So

0:30:49.080 --> 0:30:51.280
<v Speaker 1>we do think that any good news at all. Maybe

0:30:51.360 --> 0:30:52.760
<v Speaker 1>some of the economy. Maybe it's on the Fed. We

0:30:52.800 --> 0:30:54.200
<v Speaker 1>think it'll be the fan. We don't think the fan's

0:30:54.200 --> 0:30:56.360
<v Speaker 1>gonna hike ten eleven times, maybe more like seven or

0:30:56.400 --> 0:30:58.720
<v Speaker 1>eight this year. Inflation comes back down. That could be

0:30:58.840 --> 0:31:01.200
<v Speaker 1>the deposit house. One more thing, one more thing. Earnings

0:31:01.240 --> 0:31:04.360
<v Speaker 1>expectations this year, Earning supposed to go this year they

0:31:05.360 --> 0:31:07.320
<v Speaker 1>last year. All right, that's that's pretty good. I mean

0:31:07.360 --> 0:31:09.360
<v Speaker 1>that doesn't sound recession or to us. We're still creating

0:31:09.400 --> 0:31:12.480
<v Speaker 1>three fourtwood jobs a month. Things are perfect. But again,

0:31:12.560 --> 0:31:14.800
<v Speaker 1>we think we can aford a recession, more of a slowdown,

0:31:14.880 --> 0:31:16.680
<v Speaker 1>not a recession than that could be an opportunity for

0:31:17.000 --> 0:31:20.360
<v Speaker 1>investors here. Well. To be fair, our Tom Orlick ahead

0:31:20.400 --> 0:31:23.440
<v Speaker 1>of our Bloomberg economic chief economist who's got research outs,

0:31:23.440 --> 0:31:26.840
<v Speaker 1>has slowed down. Yes, recession. No, So I feel like

0:31:26.880 --> 0:31:29.520
<v Speaker 1>it mirrors to some extent what you just had to say, Hey, Ryan,

0:31:29.600 --> 0:31:32.480
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much. Safe travels to New York. Ryan Dietrich,

0:31:32.600 --> 0:31:35.560
<v Speaker 1>chief market strategist at LPL Financial, on the floor on

0:31:35.680 --> 0:31:39.160
<v Speaker 1>the phone from Charlotte, North Carolina. So optimism, Yeah, of

0:31:39.240 --> 0:31:42.760
<v Speaker 1>course you can tell he's optimistic. Guy. No, I did not.

0:31:42.840 --> 0:31:44.720
<v Speaker 1>I'm gonna let you say it. I've got it, so

0:31:44.720 --> 0:31:46.600
<v Speaker 1>you're gonna have to help correct a lot of technicals there.

0:31:48.480 --> 0:31:51.280
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast

0:31:51.360 --> 0:31:54.320
<v Speaker 1>on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com, and you can

0:31:54.360 --> 0:31:56.479
<v Speaker 1>also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern

0:31:56.520 --> 0:31:59.640
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0:31:59.680 --> 0:32:00.320
<v Speaker 1>glob or News