Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along
Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Abramowitz. Daily we bring you
Speaker 1: insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations.
Speaker 1: To find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com,
Speaker 1: and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. This was a joy.
Speaker 1: On the day of the Federal Reserve meetings, we had
Speaker 1: Richard Clarato with us, the vice chairman, former vice chairman,
Speaker 1: and also William Dudley of course a former president of
Speaker 1: New York Fed as well, and we are thrilled Bill
Speaker 1: Dudley you would find on your date calendar to come
Speaker 1: back and join us. Here is we reset into January.
Speaker 1: What will you glean? And I know what you're gonna
Speaker 1: tell me. You're not gonna rely on one data point,
Speaker 1: but what does the data point of January twelve the
Speaker 1: inflation reports signal to the Fed where possibly they will
Speaker 1: have three data points lined up marking some form of disinflation.
Speaker 1: Paul have been very clear that to chief success he
Speaker 1: needs to see moderation of goods prices, which he is
Speaker 1: seeing moderation of services prices excluding housing, which he's not seeing,
Speaker 1: and more slack in the labor market, which he's not seeing.
Speaker 1: So he's only achieved one out of its three goals.
Speaker 1: So the thing that focus on is what's happening to
Speaker 1: the services inflation excluding housing because we know housing is
Speaker 1: going to come down with a lag. And what's happening
Speaker 1: in the labor market. You know we have you know
Speaker 1: less player e poloyment increase. We need to see pyroll
Speaker 1: gains of fifty thousand, seventy five a month. We need
Speaker 1: to see an increase in the unemployment rate on FUNT
Speaker 1: to generate and a slack in the labor market. We
Speaker 1: need to get inflation down in the services sector. You
Speaker 1: were expert with on this at Goldman Sachs with a
Speaker 1: guy named McKelvie in a young Turk names hot Sis
Speaker 1: and the bottom line, I love Bill, what you're saying.
Speaker 1: We need to get from two hundred thousand plus down
Speaker 1: to something that's the run rate of fifty seventy thousand
Speaker 1: non farm payrolls. When we do that, where does that
Speaker 1: dearth of job growth come from? I mean, there's no
Speaker 1: evidence out there on how to get from there here
Speaker 1: to there. The main phrase I'm trying to talk like
Speaker 1: him at Bowden, but I'm going down in flames. How
Speaker 1: do we get from here to thar? Well? What the
Speaker 1: feed is said that that we need tighter financial conditions.
Speaker 1: We need tighter financial to getations to slow the economy
Speaker 1: down so there's less demand for labor. That's why Pollen
Speaker 1: is the press conference last week with basically pointing out
Speaker 1: if financial conditions ease and the Fed Reserve is gonna
Speaker 1: have to do more. The Fed is targeting financial conditions
Speaker 1: because that's the mechanism that slows down the economy. When
Speaker 1: sponds rally and stocks rally, then that just mean there's
Speaker 1: more for the Fed to do. Bill. I've been confused
Speaker 1: by the market response after we got the latest Fed meeting.
Speaker 1: There hasn't been a real increase in bond yields and
Speaker 1: there is still priced into the market a lower terminal rate.
Speaker 1: Them with the FETE is saying that they are going
Speaker 1: to do How do you understand that? There's two possible explanations.
Speaker 1: Number One, the market thinks that the Federal blank once
Speaker 1: the unemployer rate starts going up. So the market is
Speaker 1: basically saying that the FETE doesn't mean what it says
Speaker 1: that they're saying this to try to talk tough, but
Speaker 1: when the going gets difficult, the federal fold. That's one
Speaker 1: possible explanation. I don't believe that. I think Paul is
Speaker 1: going to do what he says. And number two, they
Speaker 1: may just have a more benign view about how fast
Speaker 1: inflation is going to come down. I think the market
Speaker 1: is overweighting the improvement in goods price inflation. We knew
Speaker 1: goods price inflation was going to come down for two reasons.
Speaker 1: Number one, the switch in in the pandemic has reduced
Speaker 1: the demand for good versus services. And two, we knew
Speaker 1: that some of these supply chain disruptions we're gonna normally.
Speaker 1: The fact that used car prices are falling out was
Speaker 1: don't surprise anybody. At the same time, people point to
Speaker 1: the fact that credit card receivables are going up, people
Speaker 1: are borrowing more. It indicates that the cushion is getting
Speaker 1: used up, and there will be a music stoppage at
Speaker 1: the beginning of the year that people will stop spending,
Speaker 1: and perhaps they already are. How do you push back
Speaker 1: against that and say no, there is actually more momentum,
Speaker 1: more dynamism behind that that this bed has to curb. Well.
Speaker 1: One aspect of good price inflation going down is the
Speaker 1: oval inflation rates lower, so people's wages go a bit
Speaker 1: further than they were before. And as you said, you
Speaker 1: know the excess savings is coming down, but still there's
Speaker 1: no about truly and a half money of savings above
Speaker 1: what you would expect the situation to be if we
Speaker 1: hadn't had those large fiscal transfers. And finally, there's gonna
Speaker 1: be a lot more income for people caused by indexing.
Speaker 1: So look at Social Security eight point seven percent increase
Speaker 1: coming next month. It's a hundred billion dollar increase in
Speaker 1: federal spending. All those people are going to go out
Speaker 1: and spend that money. What kind of recession do you
Speaker 1: foresee given the outlook that you're talking about, given the
Speaker 1: fact that if gasoline prices rise, you end up with
Speaker 1: another situation at a time when suddenly the momentum is waning.
Speaker 1: I don't expect every set quiet yet. I think the
Speaker 1: economy still has considerable for momentum. If you look at
Speaker 1: the Atlanta ft GDP now forecast for the fourth quarters,
Speaker 1: it's in the two to three percent range. Uh And
Speaker 1: I think that the conno will continue to grow through
Speaker 1: the first quarter. I think the recession, when it finally
Speaker 1: does occur, will be mild because the federal reserves in control.
Speaker 1: This is a recession if it occurs is completely induced
Speaker 1: by the FED to generate more slack in the labor market.
Speaker 1: That means, once enough slack in the labor market has
Speaker 1: been produced to bring inflation down, the Fed can relent.
Speaker 1: Uh short commentious rates are gonna be around five points,
Speaker 1: so plenty of room for the FED to cut rates
Speaker 1: to stimulate the economy when the time comes. This is
Speaker 1: one reason why I think the stock market is still
Speaker 1: pretty poyant giving the fact that likely because they see
Speaker 1: the other side. Bill. This is why we love to
Speaker 1: have you on, I mean, the idea and this is
Speaker 1: so important, folks. I knew that we were going up
Speaker 1: eight point seven and social Security, but there it is
Speaker 1: Dr Dudley quantifying it and showing that it's a return
Speaker 1: and Bill it's almost like, you know, I expect Wayne
Speaker 1: Angel to be on after you. We're almost like back
Speaker 1: to the sixties and seventies with an observation like that,
Speaker 1: is this good old demand pull inflation? I mean, is
Speaker 1: that where we are we got our social Security check,
Speaker 1: let's go spend it and prices go up. Well, novel
Speaker 1: GDP is on a strong trajectory, and the FED needs
Speaker 1: to take that novel GDP growth, which we've been running
Speaker 1: around nine percent over the last year down to about three.
Speaker 1: That's a big job for the FIT to pull off.
Speaker 1: Bill Dudley, thank you so much. Lisa Bramlinson. Tom King
Speaker 1: was one of the stars of Wall Street. She is
Speaker 1: definitive on E s G. I'll try to get some
Speaker 1: questions in on that after a really brutal year for
Speaker 1: E s G. But we speak with the head of
Speaker 1: US Equity Quantitative Strategy at Bank of America, Sevita Supermanian
Speaker 1: joins US as well. Sevita, You've got a very cautious view,
Speaker 1: a defensive view for two thousand twenty three. My statement
Speaker 1: is corporations will adapt. How will the corporations adapt to
Speaker 1: your caution to husband and to husband free cash flow?
Speaker 1: You know what I think they're already adapting. And what
Speaker 1: we're seeing is that companies are spending on automation to
Speaker 1: replace you know, kind of expensive labor with machines and uh,
Speaker 1: we're actually seeing the seeds sown for a strong productivity cycle.
Speaker 1: The problem is it takes a little while for all
Speaker 1: of that to come to fruition. I think companies are
Speaker 1: also adapting to geopolitical risk as well as you know,
Speaker 1: supply chain friction by reshoring and then you know, just
Speaker 1: a little on the E s G, a little sprinkle
Speaker 1: of E s G here a lot of One of
Speaker 1: the biggest reasons that companies are moving plant and property
Speaker 1: and equipment closer to consumers is to reduce travel related
Speaker 1: emissions risks. So there's a lot of reasons that companies are,
Speaker 1: you know, adapting to this environment by reshoring, spending a
Speaker 1: little bit of money on you know, a better set
Speaker 1: up in the future, but it costs money in the
Speaker 1: near term and that's what we're worried about over the
Speaker 1: next twelve months. Stuart Kaiser over at City Group is
Speaker 1: in the same camp I'm in that when you get
Speaker 1: Sevita Subramanian gloom, your choice set gets smaller and smaller.
Speaker 1: Our index funds going to get hammered in the next
Speaker 1: twelve months versus active, more narrow less diversified securities analysis
Speaker 1: because there's just not that many good ideas out there.
Speaker 1: Given the Sevita gloom Look, I'm not gloomy on everything,
Speaker 1: and I do think that there are parts of the
Speaker 1: market that are worth uh really kind of gaining exposure to.
Speaker 1: I mean, the problem is when everybody is gloomy, the
Speaker 1: chances are that information is more priced into the market
Speaker 1: than it has been when everybody is really excited. So
Speaker 1: so I think that it is time to avoid being
Speaker 1: an indexer and get active. I completely agree. There's a
Speaker 1: lot of reasons for that. I mean, in our quant work,
Speaker 1: we're noticing that dispersion valuations is that almost extreme highs
Speaker 1: and extreme historical highs. So what that means is there's
Speaker 1: a lot of alpha to be made by just kind
Speaker 1: of playing mean reversion of valuation UM. So that's one reason.
Speaker 1: The second reason that I think that indexing is going
Speaker 1: to underperform active for you know, one of the first
Speaker 1: years in a very long time is that you know,
Speaker 1: the index itself is still very top heavy in long
Speaker 1: duration high growth. You know, tech TMT kind of the
Speaker 1: old leadership that did really well when interest rates were
Speaker 1: falling to zero, the cost of capital was free, and
Speaker 1: you know, any company got funding to do whatever it wanted.
Speaker 1: I think we're moving into an environment that's more rational
Speaker 1: and you really need to sift through and pick the winners. Um,
Speaker 1: you know, kind of figure out the winners from the
Speaker 1: losers and sevida that seems to be more energy and
Speaker 1: financials ironically, rather than tech and discretionary and TMT. That's
Speaker 1: something that you talked about, the sort of flipping of
Speaker 1: the risk premia, which I loved this concept. How much
Speaker 1: does that take into account the likelihood of some sort
Speaker 1: of recession, of the fact that yields would be coming
Speaker 1: back down and the potentially oil prices wouldn't raise as
Speaker 1: high arise as as high as people think. How much
Speaker 1: does that still support a narrative of financials and oil
Speaker 1: companies outperforming. Look if rates come back to zero and
Speaker 1: if oil companies flood the market with supply, I'm gonna
Speaker 1: be wrong. I just don't think either of those things happen.
Speaker 1: Over the next twelve months. Oil companies finally have capital
Speaker 1: discipline and they're more focused on returning cash to shareholders
Speaker 1: and meeting their E s G goals then turning back
Speaker 1: the you know, drilling and extracting more oil. They have
Speaker 1: completely pivoted from flooding the market with supply I'm not
Speaker 1: talking about just the constraints on energy from the war
Speaker 1: in Ukraine and talking about something that's been in place
Speaker 1: for the last several years, which is oil companies in
Speaker 1: the US are not They're not motivated by increasing supply.
Speaker 1: They're motivated by pivoting to green and their CEO CEOs
Speaker 1: at energy companies pay themselves not in alignment with production goals,
Speaker 1: but in alignment with E s G goals. I think
Speaker 1: this is a very different sector than it has been Financials.
Speaker 1: I mean, even if rates flatline, I think financials is
Speaker 1: a sector that has morphed from being this toxic credit
Speaker 1: sensitive sector of two thousand seven to a sector that
Speaker 1: has lower earnings volatility than the SMP five hundred, a
Speaker 1: sector that has better balance sheets and it's ever had
Speaker 1: in the history of its existence, and can actually amp
Speaker 1: up its div it end, you know, amidst an economic slowdown.
Speaker 1: I think it's a really interesting sector right now, Savida.
Speaker 1: Where do we pivot to after next year. Let's say
Speaker 1: it's the reset year where we understand whether we've seen
Speaker 1: peak inflation and the trajectory of inflation. From there, are
Speaker 1: we moving to a lost decade one of slow grinding
Speaker 1: returns for fields remain higher, or are we entering a
Speaker 1: new bull market that has legs. Look, I think that
Speaker 1: we're in an environment where we're moving from just simply
Speaker 1: price appreciation to total return. And that's been our thesis
Speaker 1: for for the last couple of years. I mean, if
Speaker 1: you look at the last ten years we've had, you know,
Speaker 1: very most of the returns of the S and P
Speaker 1: five have been from just capital appreciation, like less than
Speaker 1: fifteen percent of returns have been from dividends. I think
Speaker 1: we're moving into an environment where fifty percent of your
Speaker 1: returns are going to be from dividends, are going to
Speaker 1: be from price appreciation. So it's gonna be not as
Speaker 1: exciting from just buying a stock and watching it go up,
Speaker 1: but it is very exciting from the idea that companies
Speaker 1: could actually increase their dividends. Um your total return profile
Speaker 1: could be that much better than bonds. I still like
Speaker 1: stocks more than bonds for the next ten years. And
Speaker 1: you know, Lisa, one thing that I think is good news,
Speaker 1: so I'll end on a positive note, is that our
Speaker 1: you know, our long term models were very negative on
Speaker 1: equities at the beginning of this year, but the good
Speaker 1: thing about this correction that we've seen in the market.
Speaker 1: The good thing about valuations coming down is that the
Speaker 1: setup right now is spitting out something like five percent
Speaker 1: returns per annum over the next ten years, rather than
Speaker 1: negative returns that we were seeing at the beginning of
Speaker 1: the year. So yeah, I'm not going to be great
Speaker 1: as the twenty tens, but it's going to be better
Speaker 1: than than negative. Sevita, thank you so much. Sevita Subermannia
Speaker 1: and the Bank of America Securities here this morning. We've
Speaker 1: got to get her back on to talk about the
Speaker 1: new e s G. Right now, we're gonna spend four
Speaker 1: minutes with Matt Brill of Investco on a day job,
Speaker 1: and then we are gonna wander over to his good
Speaker 1: experiences at the World Cup, he greets us this morning
Speaker 1: for those of you on radio, and I don't what
Speaker 1: did they say, the blue and the blanche. I don't
Speaker 1: even know what the language is here to Argentina with
Speaker 1: the blue and the white Jersey met bro. The bond
Speaker 1: market needs to win next year after a horrific two
Speaker 1: thousand twenty two. What is the path to total return
Speaker 1: next year in debt markets? He good morning, Tom, Yeah,
Speaker 1: it was. It's been a very challenging two thousand and
Speaker 1: twenty two. I think the the I G index is
Speaker 1: down about UM, but the coupon is materially higher going forward,
Speaker 1: and yields are a lot higher going forward, so you know,
Speaker 1: the look at the starting point is good. Um. We
Speaker 1: think that for two reasons you tend to not have
Speaker 1: back to back negative years for fixed income. The first
Speaker 1: is that obviously a higher yield gives you a greater
Speaker 1: break even it or buffer going forward um for volatility
Speaker 1: and for spread and interest right widening. But to that,
Speaker 1: the higher cost of debt generally is a burden on
Speaker 1: the economy, and as you have a higher cost of debt,
Speaker 1: it starts to slow the economy and makes things uh,
Speaker 1: it makes eventually the FED cut, which we do think
Speaker 1: is is certainly in play the back half of three.
Speaker 1: So pretty good starting point. Um. He got a goodfferent
Speaker 1: painter of this year, but I do think the technicals
Speaker 1: will be very good for a G next year. UM
Speaker 1: at these higher yield levels. Let's talk about the pain.
Speaker 1: I'm looking at stocks and I'm just asking myself, is
Speaker 1: that it with down almost on the SMP year today?
Speaker 1: Death thirty one on the nastack A little bit more
Speaker 1: on that. I look away spreads this year, Matt, and
Speaker 1: I'm just asking myself, is that it is that the
Speaker 1: price that we have to pay for four hundred basis
Speaker 1: points worth of tightening and nine months? And some people say, yeah,
Speaker 1: I think that's it. Others Matts say no way, You're
Speaker 1: not getting away with blown up ten years a decade
Speaker 1: worth of easy central bank policy with these numbers. What
Speaker 1: do you say back to those people? So so, I
Speaker 1: won't speak to the equity markets, but I'll speaking to
Speaker 1: the fixed in compartment. It's it's the worst year we've
Speaker 1: ever had. So what you say is that it? I
Speaker 1: mean we were down over at one point and that
Speaker 1: was just an absolute catastrophe and things that never anybody
Speaker 1: ever would have thought could happen to that magnitude. I
Speaker 1: don't think, Um, we're very few people were calling for
Speaker 1: a down year in the bondom market. Um, so you know,
Speaker 1: I think that the readjustment has taken place. Um, when
Speaker 1: you type, when you hike for inner basis points in
Speaker 1: less than nine months, UM, you know it's gonna it's
Speaker 1: gonna leave a mark. And that's certainly is what happened.
Speaker 1: But I do think we're much better in balance at
Speaker 1: this point. And you know, we're talking earlier whether the
Speaker 1: FED hikes one, two, or three more times. You know,
Speaker 1: I'm kind of more in the camp of the hike
Speaker 1: in February. I do think they'll hike again in March,
Speaker 1: but that's that's probably it. So we're of the way
Speaker 1: done here. Um So, I think, you know, the floors
Speaker 1: has sort of been set and the worst is certainly
Speaker 1: behind us. Although credit spreads are pretty much in line
Speaker 1: with averages, are they pretty pricing in a recession as well?
Speaker 1: Or are they pricing in something much more mild? Yeah,
Speaker 1: so it's it's the tail of two markets. If you
Speaker 1: just look at spreads, the answer is no. Um here
Speaker 1: where the thirty basis point range on spreads that is
Speaker 1: already the fifty basis points wider on the year, So
Speaker 1: it is a pretty material and move wider. But they've
Speaker 1: been cheaper about thirty of the time over the last
Speaker 1: five years and about of the time over the last
Speaker 1: ten years, so we're not pricing it intercession. If things
Speaker 1: were to significantly slow down, credit spreads likely would happen
Speaker 1: go wider. But if you look at yields, yields aren't
Speaker 1: that roughly the nine percentile over the last decade, So
Speaker 1: all in yields are still very elevated, and you are
Speaker 1: getting paid, in my opinion, to take on credit risk.
Speaker 1: The question is are you Are you better off in treasuries?
Speaker 1: Are you better off in credit? Matt Brill dressed in
Speaker 1: Argentine is blue and white. You were in cutter from
Speaker 1: many many of these games you experienced at firsthand. The
Speaker 1: World Cup in four years will address New York City
Speaker 1: and also with Investco Atlanta is well other cities across
Speaker 1: this nation. What should we look for in four years
Speaker 1: after what you experienced this year? Well, this was the
Speaker 1: World Cup on like any other that you could have
Speaker 1: it all in one place. But um, you know, I
Speaker 1: just think there's gonna be a hot ticket here in
Speaker 1: the US. And we've got a good young team. I'm
Speaker 1: not sure we're gonna get a new coach or not.
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna get in that conversation, but I think
Speaker 1: we like we will, got a great core of the team,
Speaker 1: and I see it in the youth ranks. Everybody's talking
Speaker 1: about this World Cup. Everybody wants to go to it.
Speaker 1: I was able to get six games in four days
Speaker 1: over in Guitar all at face value. I don't think
Speaker 1: that's gonna necessarily happen. Ever here in the US. I
Speaker 1: think it's gonna be the hottest ticket. Everyone's gonna want
Speaker 1: to be a part of this World Cup, and I
Speaker 1: think it's gonna be, you know, a fantastic time here
Speaker 1: in North America. I gotta mention it's in Canada, Mexico
Speaker 1: as well. Very cool, Matt. I've been thinking about the
Speaker 1: same thing, buddy already have Can you imagine how expensive
Speaker 1: it will be if you don't get those tickets? Hit
Speaker 1: coverage in Atlanta? Well Pharaoh today, Oh and Matt brill
Speaker 1: White down in Atlanta. Why can't we just do it?
Speaker 1: I'll pay it. We can do if you gotta go run,
Speaker 1: you gotta go to Mexico, go to Canada, you know coverage,
Speaker 1: Lisa and I will stay home and watch, you know whatever.
Speaker 1: Right now, we are going to get a brief on
Speaker 1: the holiday festivities with one Tea Haynes. Terry Haynes as
Speaker 1: founder of Penge, and we welcome him again this morning. Terry,
Speaker 1: we're all distracted by football in the holiday season, etcetera.
Speaker 1: Is Washington shut down yet or are they actually pretending
Speaker 1: work this week? Tom, You know Russ never sleeps in Washington,
Speaker 1: and uhh no, they'll be working all week putting together
Speaker 1: what I hope are the final touches on a full
Speaker 1: year spending bill. They've they've been promising that that will happen,
Speaker 1: so it probably will happen. But otherwise that'll be a
Speaker 1: bit help us here. With all the knowledge base you
Speaker 1: have of the ten people it takes to make a
Speaker 1: run for president, which people are percolating the hardest, besides
Speaker 1: the obvious names to make a dash for the presidency,
Speaker 1: which are hiring all the people you know at that
Speaker 1: octagonal bar at the Willard, Well, most of them have
Speaker 1: been hired up already, you know. And you you've saved
Speaker 1: me some time by going through the usual names. There's
Speaker 1: a lot of usual names, of course, starting from De
Speaker 1: Santis and going through Vice President Pence, Governor Haley others,
Speaker 1: and uh, you know a lot of those have already
Speaker 1: staffed up and briefed up, you know. The uh. Back
Speaker 1: in the eighties, Uh, the man who became Bush forty
Speaker 1: one was thought of as being slightly insane for starting
Speaker 1: his his campaign the three full years early, but ever
Speaker 1: since then it's been that sort of uh, that sort
Speaker 1: of staffing up. So you know, everybody's jockeying for position,
Speaker 1: and they have been for some time. So we'll start
Speaker 1: to see them break cover earlier in the new year.
Speaker 1: How much pushback is there in the Democratic Party for
Speaker 1: from Joe Biden running again? We had we had seen
Speaker 1: over the weekend a number of reports talking about how
Speaker 1: he's beating up his social presence, particularly in some of
Speaker 1: the networks that don't have political advertising allowed. What do
Speaker 1: you take for that from this? UM? I take the
Speaker 1: largely that the president intends to run for reelection and
Speaker 1: the party can't identify a good alternative. There are a
Speaker 1: lot of voices in the party that say that the
Speaker 1: president should not run again for a variety of reasons,
Speaker 1: age being the age and the bridge being the two
Speaker 1: major ones. But in point in fact, there's nobody around
Speaker 1: that's going to be able to command, uh, the ability
Speaker 1: to continue to attract progressives. UH. And you know Biden
Speaker 1: has been essentially running the progressive agenda as much as
Speaker 1: possible UH and also appeal to centrists and UH, he's
Speaker 1: making a case that that's what the midterms showed, and
Speaker 1: so they're they're all kind of reluctantly follow the falling
Speaker 1: in line on this, I think. And Terry, one of
Speaker 1: his hallmark policies had to do with oil prices, uh guess,
Speaker 1: and the fact that he released as much as he
Speaker 1: did a record amount from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve over
Speaker 1: the past twelve months. Now we're hearing that in February,
Speaker 1: they have plans to start refilling it. How is that
Speaker 1: going to affect the connection between gasoline prices and sentiment
Speaker 1: and political popularity if it reverses some of the price
Speaker 1: drops that we've seen. Well, I think, Uh, the president
Speaker 1: is not particularly popular as as as everyone knows, and
Speaker 1: isn't going to you know, magically become more popular his
Speaker 1: his popularity still hovers around forty depending on which polls
Speaker 1: you like. And uh, you know, so refilling the Strategic
Speaker 1: Patroleum Reserve, frankly, as policy is a very good thing
Speaker 1: because there's a great concern about how low it's gotten.
Speaker 1: But you know, it will have a detrimental impact on
Speaker 1: gasoline prices, uh during the during the winter, and uh,
Speaker 1: you know that's going to be difficult for a lot
Speaker 1: of people, So you know, they're trying to balance here
Speaker 1: as best they can. But now that he's gotten pass
Speaker 1: the mid terms, I think you can say he's he
Speaker 1: feels a little bit freer to to to re engage
Speaker 1: and reinflate the spr Terry, what you're betting that the
Speaker 1: President of the United States will run for a second term? Uh?
Speaker 1: I think probably. Uh. They've They've given every indication that
Speaker 1: he will, assuming he's physically able to do it. I said,
Speaker 1: I see no no reason today why you won't. Very good,
Speaker 1: Terry Haynes, Thank You's isn't he Yeah, he's It's completely
Speaker 1: wired in and he's got some serious credit thirty years ago.
Speaker 1: I mean, he's been through this a few times, unlike
Speaker 1: a lot of other people out there. This is the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. Join us live weekdays
Speaker 1: from seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and
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Speaker 1: for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and
Speaker 1: international relations. And subscribe to the Surveillance Podcast on Apple podcast, SoundCloud,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com, and of course, on the terminal. I'm
Speaker 1: Tom keene In, This is Bloomberg,