1 00:00:02,759 --> 00:00:10,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,560 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 3 00:00:14,600 --> 00:00:17,840 Speaker 1: Eastern on Apple, Coarclay, and Android Auto with the Bloomberg 4 00:00:17,880 --> 00:00:21,040 Speaker 1: Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,000 --> 00:00:29,080 Speaker 2: JP Morgan planning step back to office five days. 7 00:00:29,160 --> 00:00:31,080 Speaker 3: A week in the brown. 8 00:00:30,880 --> 00:00:33,479 Speaker 4: New office building, Yes on Parka. 9 00:00:33,400 --> 00:00:36,240 Speaker 3: Exactly, waiting for this headline for four years. 10 00:00:36,040 --> 00:00:39,960 Speaker 2: Exactly right, so JP Morgan? And how quickly will the 11 00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:40,720 Speaker 2: others follow? 12 00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:41,680 Speaker 3: Very quickly? 13 00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:43,599 Speaker 2: That's what I'm kind of thinking here. 14 00:00:43,560 --> 00:00:45,320 Speaker 3: Five days a week. But you have to have a question. 15 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:48,199 Speaker 5: You have to wonder will there be some flexibility, Like 16 00:00:48,240 --> 00:00:49,720 Speaker 5: if you're like, hey, I need to work at home 17 00:00:49,760 --> 00:00:50,720 Speaker 5: a couple of days, Like. 18 00:00:51,360 --> 00:00:52,919 Speaker 3: Is that more genuinely accepted? 19 00:00:53,120 --> 00:00:55,600 Speaker 2: I think what it's going to be is you're going 20 00:00:55,680 --> 00:00:58,240 Speaker 2: to be more willing to ask for it, and I 21 00:00:58,240 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 2: think the manager will be more willing to give it. 22 00:01:00,360 --> 00:01:03,319 Speaker 2: But it's like I need a day here, maybe two 23 00:01:03,400 --> 00:01:05,400 Speaker 2: or three months later I need another day there, Whereas 24 00:01:05,400 --> 00:01:08,120 Speaker 2: before maybe I wouldn't have asked for that flexibility, and 25 00:01:08,120 --> 00:01:10,640 Speaker 2: as a manager, I may not have given that flexibility. Now, 26 00:01:10,680 --> 00:01:12,200 Speaker 2: I think that flexibility is kind of there. 27 00:01:12,360 --> 00:01:14,640 Speaker 4: But now you get to work in the death store, though, 28 00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:16,920 Speaker 4: which is what everybody seems. 29 00:01:16,720 --> 00:01:17,240 Speaker 3: It's calling it. 30 00:01:17,480 --> 00:01:20,440 Speaker 5: Oh that's funny, it looks it looks very cool. Let's 31 00:01:20,440 --> 00:01:22,240 Speaker 5: say on All Street for a second. So the other 32 00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:23,959 Speaker 5: news of the morning, one of the top read stories 33 00:01:23,959 --> 00:01:27,440 Speaker 5: on the Bloomberg terminal is Bridgewater, that company cutting seven 34 00:01:27,480 --> 00:01:31,240 Speaker 5: percent of a staff and efforts to remain nimble. Michael Moore, 35 00:01:31,280 --> 00:01:33,640 Speaker 5: managing editor for Finance in The America's joins us. But 36 00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:36,360 Speaker 5: hang on a second, J. P. Morgan five days a week, 37 00:01:36,400 --> 00:01:38,520 Speaker 5: you're surprised, Uh. 38 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:41,040 Speaker 6: No, not really. I mean the majority of their staff 39 00:01:41,080 --> 00:01:45,080 Speaker 6: was already doing that, but this is the this would 40 00:01:45,080 --> 00:01:49,120 Speaker 6: be the rest of the staff. So we've seen some 41 00:01:49,240 --> 00:01:53,240 Speaker 6: firms move in that direction. Others, you know, have used 42 00:01:53,240 --> 00:01:55,280 Speaker 6: the flexibility as a recruiting tool. 43 00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:55,760 Speaker 2: City. 44 00:01:56,280 --> 00:01:59,680 Speaker 6: Yeah, City has stuck with three days a week for 45 00:01:59,840 --> 00:02:01,920 Speaker 6: a good portion of its staff. So I think we 46 00:02:02,000 --> 00:02:05,600 Speaker 6: will see a difference among the firms. Some of the 47 00:02:05,600 --> 00:02:08,360 Speaker 6: European firms have used it as a recruiting tool. So, 48 00:02:09,320 --> 00:02:11,720 Speaker 6: but you know, Jamie Diamond has been very vocal about 49 00:02:11,720 --> 00:02:14,240 Speaker 6: his views that you know, people work better in the 50 00:02:14,240 --> 00:02:19,040 Speaker 6: office together, it helps develop talent. So you know, I 51 00:02:19,040 --> 00:02:21,680 Speaker 6: think it will be kind of, you know, leader by leader, 52 00:02:21,800 --> 00:02:23,960 Speaker 6: kind of setting the agenda. 53 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:27,200 Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean, the fact is it does 54 00:02:27,280 --> 00:02:30,079 Speaker 2: work from home, So that does work. Let's get people back, 55 00:02:30,080 --> 00:02:33,400 Speaker 2: so we'll see how goes Bridge Rotter Associates huge hedge 56 00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:37,000 Speaker 2: fund cutting staff. Is this just the normal culling of 57 00:02:37,200 --> 00:02:39,120 Speaker 2: people or something different going on here? 58 00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:42,639 Speaker 6: Yeah, it's an unusual one for just for the reason 59 00:02:42,680 --> 00:02:45,320 Speaker 6: that they are coming off their best year in many 60 00:02:45,400 --> 00:02:50,320 Speaker 6: years for the Flagship Fund. You know, I think the 61 00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:53,959 Speaker 6: new CEO is definitely trying to shake things up a 62 00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:57,120 Speaker 6: little bit. He has, you know, replaced some of the 63 00:02:57,120 --> 00:02:59,720 Speaker 6: top management. They've brought some people from the outside, which 64 00:02:59,720 --> 00:03:05,120 Speaker 6: they had historically done under Ray Dalio. So I think this, 65 00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:08,240 Speaker 6: you know that the stated goal here is there are 66 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:11,320 Speaker 6: some areas where they want to hire. They don't want 67 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:14,000 Speaker 6: headcount to get too crazy. This kind of brings them 68 00:03:14,000 --> 00:03:16,799 Speaker 6: back to where they were, you know, a little over 69 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:19,600 Speaker 6: a year ago in terms of headcount and allows them 70 00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:21,359 Speaker 6: to kind of be a little more selective. 71 00:03:21,440 --> 00:03:23,840 Speaker 5: Did they over hire or something, or do they just 72 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:26,520 Speaker 5: want to like just move focus or something like that. 73 00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:27,240 Speaker 4: Yeah. 74 00:03:27,280 --> 00:03:29,360 Speaker 6: I think you know, you have seen them, you know, 75 00:03:29,400 --> 00:03:32,240 Speaker 6: announced some you know, efforts on the AI front. They 76 00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:34,520 Speaker 6: may want to do some more hiring there, but we 77 00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:38,720 Speaker 6: have seen some of the hedge funds more broadly do 78 00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:41,600 Speaker 6: some over hiring. You know, there has been a talent war, 79 00:03:42,200 --> 00:03:44,280 Speaker 6: so this could be a bit of a correction there. 80 00:03:45,200 --> 00:03:47,800 Speaker 2: It's a unique place to work, isn't It's what's yeah, 81 00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:50,880 Speaker 2: I've heard that. What makes it unique at Bridgewater. 82 00:03:51,120 --> 00:03:54,720 Speaker 6: Well, they have a you know, they have this you know, 83 00:03:54,760 --> 00:03:59,120 Speaker 6: they've long had this culture of radical transparency, of being 84 00:03:59,240 --> 00:04:02,720 Speaker 6: very blunt with each other. A lot of the senior 85 00:04:02,760 --> 00:04:05,440 Speaker 6: people have been there since they were in their early twenties, 86 00:04:05,960 --> 00:04:09,000 Speaker 6: have grown up there, haven't worked elsewhere, So there is 87 00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:12,960 Speaker 6: a bit of an insular culture there. I think near Bardea, 88 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:16,599 Speaker 6: you know, has came in a little bit later in 89 00:04:16,640 --> 00:04:19,680 Speaker 6: his career, so it brings a different perspective than Dalio, 90 00:04:19,720 --> 00:04:23,279 Speaker 6: who built this place, you know, around his principles. So 91 00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:25,760 Speaker 6: I think you could see a bit of a relaxing 92 00:04:25,880 --> 00:04:28,840 Speaker 6: of that culture while still you know, being kind of 93 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:30,479 Speaker 6: a unique beast out in Connecticut. 94 00:04:30,680 --> 00:04:32,520 Speaker 5: Going back to JP Morgan for a second, not about 95 00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:34,800 Speaker 5: the five days, but JP Morgan. The latest bank to 96 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:38,560 Speaker 5: quit the Climate Finance Group is Fall City pauls Baba. 97 00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:42,000 Speaker 5: How are we understanding it? Is this like a complete 98 00:04:42,040 --> 00:04:45,240 Speaker 5: backlash against climate and DEI for example, or is this 99 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:47,000 Speaker 5: just sort of like we're going to move to the 100 00:04:47,000 --> 00:04:48,440 Speaker 5: middle or we just rebranding it. 101 00:04:49,560 --> 00:04:51,279 Speaker 3: I think it's a bit of rebranding. 102 00:04:51,400 --> 00:04:54,520 Speaker 6: I think they were getting a lot of heat from 103 00:04:54,560 --> 00:04:57,960 Speaker 6: some politicians over some of these pledges. 104 00:04:58,760 --> 00:04:59,800 Speaker 4: They wanted something with. 105 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:01,800 Speaker 5: Pledges like we're not going to lend money to oil 106 00:05:01,839 --> 00:05:02,520 Speaker 5: and gas kind of thing. 107 00:05:03,160 --> 00:05:04,240 Speaker 4: That's how they were perceived. 108 00:05:04,279 --> 00:05:06,680 Speaker 6: They weren't always written that way, but that's how they 109 00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:10,279 Speaker 6: were perceived that. You know, they got the CEO's when 110 00:05:10,279 --> 00:05:11,919 Speaker 6: they were in front of Congress a. 111 00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:12,839 Speaker 4: Little over a year ago. 112 00:05:12,960 --> 00:05:17,280 Speaker 6: Jd Vance made a big point on this. So I 113 00:05:17,320 --> 00:05:21,360 Speaker 6: think they thought we can we can do this in 114 00:05:21,440 --> 00:05:25,080 Speaker 6: ways of lending to renewable energy without taking such a 115 00:05:25,120 --> 00:05:29,880 Speaker 6: public stance that will get us a lot of political backlash. 116 00:05:29,880 --> 00:05:32,800 Speaker 6: So I think you'll still see efforts on this, but 117 00:05:32,839 --> 00:05:37,760 Speaker 6: they won't be as grand as this climate pledge that 118 00:05:37,800 --> 00:05:38,919 Speaker 6: they had all signed up to. 119 00:05:39,360 --> 00:05:39,720 Speaker 4: What is this? 120 00:05:39,880 --> 00:05:43,320 Speaker 2: I mean, the timing is not a coincidence. Time assuming 121 00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:46,160 Speaker 2: given the new administration coming in. Is that how it's 122 00:05:46,160 --> 00:05:48,400 Speaker 2: being read or is that are they saying anything about 123 00:05:48,400 --> 00:05:49,000 Speaker 2: that the timing? 124 00:05:50,960 --> 00:05:53,080 Speaker 6: I think yeah, I don't think it's a coincidence. I 125 00:05:53,080 --> 00:05:57,760 Speaker 6: think the political winds have shifted on this, and in general, 126 00:05:57,800 --> 00:06:02,120 Speaker 6: I think there is you know, these always these pledges 127 00:06:02,160 --> 00:06:04,839 Speaker 6: always kind of came with an understanding of, Okay, we 128 00:06:04,920 --> 00:06:07,400 Speaker 6: need to help our oil and gas clients transition to 129 00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:10,200 Speaker 6: this new world. So it's not going to be you know, 130 00:06:10,320 --> 00:06:15,440 Speaker 6: cutting ties with the big oil companies. But I think 131 00:06:15,640 --> 00:06:17,240 Speaker 6: they're being more cautious than that. 132 00:06:17,480 --> 00:06:18,839 Speaker 3: And it's not just you know, banks. 133 00:06:18,839 --> 00:06:21,520 Speaker 5: You should point at McDonald's today, the piece coming out 134 00:06:21,560 --> 00:06:24,240 Speaker 5: saying that it's walking back its DEI goals, saying it's 135 00:06:24,320 --> 00:06:27,440 Speaker 5: changing its approach to diversity, equity inclusion, no longer setting 136 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:32,960 Speaker 5: quote aspirational representation goals, instead focusing on embedding inclusion. 137 00:06:32,520 --> 00:06:34,240 Speaker 3: Practices into its daily business. 138 00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:36,760 Speaker 5: I don't know what that difference is, but that's why 139 00:06:36,760 --> 00:06:38,520 Speaker 5: I wonder if it's just a rebrand like now you 140 00:06:38,560 --> 00:06:40,960 Speaker 5: don't want to say ESG, but if you still have 141 00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:44,640 Speaker 5: some sort of like net zero goals, maybe that terminology 142 00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:47,480 Speaker 5: is more okay. It's just sort of a branding and 143 00:06:47,520 --> 00:06:49,159 Speaker 5: moving away from something extreme. 144 00:06:50,040 --> 00:06:50,240 Speaker 4: Yeah. 145 00:06:50,279 --> 00:06:52,679 Speaker 6: I think it's not wanting to be seen as taking 146 00:06:52,680 --> 00:06:56,039 Speaker 6: a political stance more taking a This is good for 147 00:06:56,120 --> 00:06:58,159 Speaker 6: our risk perspective. 148 00:06:59,200 --> 00:07:03,279 Speaker 2: I feel like it's been you know, across the economy, 149 00:07:03,320 --> 00:07:06,680 Speaker 2: maybe peak woke at some point or peak DEI whatever. 150 00:07:06,720 --> 00:07:09,040 Speaker 2: The pendulum, as you say, yes, say the pendulum just 151 00:07:09,080 --> 00:07:11,720 Speaker 2: swinging back a little bit. Sorry enough to stay on 152 00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:13,560 Speaker 2: top of that. Michael Moore, thank you so much. We 153 00:07:13,600 --> 00:07:16,000 Speaker 2: appreciate that. Michael Moore as a managing editor for Finance 154 00:07:16,040 --> 00:07:18,200 Speaker 2: in the America's Bloomberg News, joining us here in our 155 00:07:18,200 --> 00:07:21,720 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio looking at that story Bridgewater, big 156 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:25,720 Speaker 2: big hedge fund, cutting about seven percent of its workforce 157 00:07:25,760 --> 00:07:28,880 Speaker 2: and an effort to remain quote nimble. So there you go. 158 00:07:29,040 --> 00:07:29,320 Speaker 5: Yeah. 159 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:30,680 Speaker 2: And now it's also I think when you look at 160 00:07:30,680 --> 00:07:33,440 Speaker 2: some of these hedge funds, you know they're starting. We've 161 00:07:33,440 --> 00:07:37,240 Speaker 2: seen some hedge funds return capital to investors because they're 162 00:07:37,240 --> 00:07:40,920 Speaker 2: just getting too big and they can't find the opportunities 163 00:07:40,960 --> 00:07:43,240 Speaker 2: to invest the capital and generate their returns they want, 164 00:07:43,320 --> 00:07:45,120 Speaker 2: so let's just give it back. And that's what we've 165 00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:46,680 Speaker 2: seen in that. I think in a hedge fund business 166 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:49,320 Speaker 2: over the last twenty years has been the funds. More 167 00:07:49,320 --> 00:07:51,720 Speaker 2: and more money's going to fewer and fewer big funds, 168 00:07:51,760 --> 00:07:53,600 Speaker 2: and they're just getting bigger, whether it's Point seventy two 169 00:07:54,040 --> 00:07:55,680 Speaker 2: or Citadel or some of those types of. 170 00:07:55,600 --> 00:07:58,320 Speaker 5: People on flip side. Not every hedge fund is doing well. 171 00:07:58,680 --> 00:08:03,880 Speaker 5: Hedge fund Derek Jupiter has suffered its worst ever losing. 172 00:08:03,920 --> 00:08:06,040 Speaker 5: The street got a thirty two point seven percent decline 173 00:08:06,120 --> 00:08:09,240 Speaker 5: last year. This follows a forty three point three percent 174 00:08:09,320 --> 00:08:11,320 Speaker 5: plunge in twenty twenty three. 175 00:08:11,520 --> 00:08:11,960 Speaker 3: Yikes. 176 00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:15,000 Speaker 5: Assets at the firm has fallen to around eight hundred 177 00:08:15,040 --> 00:08:17,000 Speaker 5: and eighteen million five years. 178 00:08:17,080 --> 00:08:18,880 Speaker 3: Two years ago it was five billion. 179 00:08:18,960 --> 00:08:19,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's not good. 180 00:08:21,520 --> 00:08:25,440 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch the program 181 00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:28,960 Speaker 1: live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android 182 00:08:28,960 --> 00:08:31,960 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen 183 00:08:32,040 --> 00:08:35,319 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. 184 00:08:35,880 --> 00:08:38,520 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 185 00:08:40,000 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 2: The ISM Services Index data came out looks so better 186 00:08:43,280 --> 00:08:45,720 Speaker 2: than expected, and we want to get right to that 187 00:08:45,840 --> 00:08:48,280 Speaker 2: ISM data because that's something that's kind of moving the 188 00:08:48,280 --> 00:08:48,840 Speaker 2: markets here. 189 00:08:49,280 --> 00:08:50,440 Speaker 4: Yields popped a little bit. 190 00:08:50,400 --> 00:08:52,079 Speaker 2: Higher here on the back of some of that economic 191 00:08:52,120 --> 00:08:54,160 Speaker 2: data we got the ten year treasury Now I'll put 192 00:08:54,200 --> 00:08:56,800 Speaker 2: about five bass points four point sixty seven on the news. 193 00:08:57,200 --> 00:09:01,080 Speaker 2: Stocks pulled back, also sp down. Just Actually Steve Miller 194 00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:04,680 Speaker 2: joints us he's the chairman at that's the Institute for 195 00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:08,200 Speaker 2: Supply Management, Hasty, you've talked to us about this ism data. 196 00:09:08,440 --> 00:09:10,960 Speaker 2: Alex and I are looking at this and looks really 197 00:09:11,000 --> 00:09:12,640 Speaker 2: strong across the board. What are you seeing? 198 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:15,640 Speaker 4: Yeah, same thing. You know. 199 00:09:15,760 --> 00:09:20,160 Speaker 7: What drove the increase this month was business activity and 200 00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:23,880 Speaker 7: supplier deliveries kind of offsetting that a little bit. We're 201 00:09:23,880 --> 00:09:28,000 Speaker 7: seeing a continued draw down in backlog of orders, but 202 00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:31,160 Speaker 7: with a lower disruption and supply chains that we've seen 203 00:09:31,200 --> 00:09:33,080 Speaker 7: in the month, it kind of makes sense. 204 00:09:33,679 --> 00:09:36,560 Speaker 5: Any of this related to the potential of tariffs coming 205 00:09:36,600 --> 00:09:40,800 Speaker 5: on in twenty twenty five or twenty twenty six, Well. 206 00:09:40,679 --> 00:09:43,800 Speaker 7: Some of the inventory activity seems to be a result 207 00:09:43,920 --> 00:09:48,600 Speaker 7: of concerns over tariffs. By far, the commentary that came 208 00:09:48,679 --> 00:09:52,640 Speaker 7: through from the respondents was concerns over what tariff impacts 209 00:09:52,720 --> 00:09:55,320 Speaker 7: might have and I think we saw some of that 210 00:09:55,520 --> 00:09:57,679 Speaker 7: in the sentiment around pricings pricing. 211 00:09:57,720 --> 00:09:59,720 Speaker 4: We saw quite a lift month over month. 212 00:10:00,440 --> 00:10:04,600 Speaker 2: Im services prices paid came in well above the forecast, 213 00:10:04,640 --> 00:10:05,800 Speaker 2: well above last period. 214 00:10:06,360 --> 00:10:07,319 Speaker 4: How do we interpret that? 215 00:10:08,640 --> 00:10:12,280 Speaker 7: Yeah, I would directly relate that to some of the 216 00:10:12,280 --> 00:10:16,080 Speaker 7: pricing activity that's coming in for next year's contracts. There 217 00:10:16,160 --> 00:10:19,679 Speaker 7: is risk management around tariff impacts, and we saw some 218 00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:24,080 Speaker 7: of the commentary talking about price increases in anticipation of 219 00:10:24,120 --> 00:10:26,360 Speaker 7: what impacts there might be from the terrace. And it 220 00:10:26,400 --> 00:10:29,520 Speaker 7: was across almost it was fourteen of the eighteen industries 221 00:10:29,880 --> 00:10:32,960 Speaker 7: had commentary around potential negative impact from terrace. 222 00:10:33,559 --> 00:10:36,400 Speaker 3: So is the could this be the peak then for services? 223 00:10:36,440 --> 00:10:37,800 Speaker 3: Like how will that feed through? 224 00:10:39,280 --> 00:10:39,480 Speaker 4: Yeah? 225 00:10:39,800 --> 00:10:44,800 Speaker 7: I think that we'll see based on the supplier the 226 00:10:46,080 --> 00:10:49,839 Speaker 7: supplier deliveries number impact, we'll see that drop down again 227 00:10:50,280 --> 00:10:56,480 Speaker 7: in January, assuming there's no port strike, and that'll give 228 00:10:56,559 --> 00:10:58,719 Speaker 7: a little bit negative pressure on the overall PMI. But 229 00:10:59,679 --> 00:11:03,240 Speaker 7: this quarter is the strongest quarter we've had in a while, 230 00:11:03,720 --> 00:11:06,560 Speaker 7: and I believe it since the beginning of twenty twenty three. 231 00:11:07,320 --> 00:11:10,360 Speaker 7: I feel really strongly about where the number is. It's 232 00:11:10,520 --> 00:11:12,440 Speaker 7: really solid, solid growth. 233 00:11:13,040 --> 00:11:15,040 Speaker 2: All right, Steve Miller, thank you so much. We appreciate 234 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:18,319 Speaker 2: that's Steve Miller he's a chairman of Institute for Supplying Management. 235 00:11:18,360 --> 00:11:20,240 Speaker 2: That's IM with some strong numbers. 236 00:11:20,520 --> 00:11:25,600 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 237 00:11:25,679 --> 00:11:28,800 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Coarcklay and Android 238 00:11:28,800 --> 00:11:32,120 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 239 00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:35,680 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 240 00:11:36,400 --> 00:11:39,400 Speaker 5: Alex youil here alongside Paul Sweeney. This a Bloomberg Intelligence Radio. 241 00:11:39,400 --> 00:11:41,760 Speaker 5: We bring you all the top news in business, economics, 242 00:11:41,800 --> 00:11:44,200 Speaker 5: and finance through a lens of our Bloomberg Intelligence folks. 243 00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:46,640 Speaker 5: They cover two thousand companies one hundred and thirty industries 244 00:11:46,679 --> 00:11:49,440 Speaker 5: around the world. We also tap a vast network of 245 00:11:49,480 --> 00:11:51,319 Speaker 5: resources outside of Bloomberg as well. 246 00:11:51,360 --> 00:11:52,480 Speaker 3: Mike Summers is one of them. 247 00:11:52,520 --> 00:11:58,120 Speaker 5: He's API, American Petroleum Institute President and CEO. Talks to 248 00:11:58,320 --> 00:12:02,160 Speaker 5: Washington about what to do about energy and Mike your 249 00:12:02,200 --> 00:12:03,280 Speaker 5: claim to fame. Right. 250 00:12:03,320 --> 00:12:05,080 Speaker 3: The second in this radio studio is. 251 00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:09,520 Speaker 5: Actually Landman on Paramount because Paul, my co anchor, is 252 00:12:09,520 --> 00:12:12,160 Speaker 5: watching it and now he loves it and he thinks 253 00:12:12,280 --> 00:12:13,520 Speaker 5: you knows everything about oil. 254 00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:15,920 Speaker 3: And gas and he's all over it. So you're right. 255 00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:19,880 Speaker 3: API is one of the sponsors, so perfect day. Good 256 00:12:19,920 --> 00:12:21,480 Speaker 3: to see him, Mike. What's day one? 257 00:12:21,559 --> 00:12:23,839 Speaker 4: Great show, and I appreciate being with you today. 258 00:12:24,720 --> 00:12:27,440 Speaker 5: What's day one for you guys under a president of administration? 259 00:12:28,559 --> 00:12:31,480 Speaker 8: Well, we've laid out an API five point policy roadmap. 260 00:12:31,520 --> 00:12:33,400 Speaker 8: You can find it at API dot org of the 261 00:12:33,400 --> 00:12:35,600 Speaker 8: things that we're asking this president in this Congress to 262 00:12:35,640 --> 00:12:38,720 Speaker 8: do during the first six months of the administration, but 263 00:12:38,760 --> 00:12:41,040 Speaker 8: there are some things that they can get done early 264 00:12:41,080 --> 00:12:44,440 Speaker 8: in the administration, really on day one. So one of 265 00:12:44,440 --> 00:12:48,319 Speaker 8: those things is lifting the LNG export pause. We're excited 266 00:12:48,360 --> 00:12:50,400 Speaker 8: that we have a new president that's focused on that 267 00:12:50,440 --> 00:12:53,000 Speaker 8: and he's committed to lifting it on day one. So 268 00:12:53,080 --> 00:12:55,000 Speaker 8: that's one thing we think that they can get done 269 00:12:55,200 --> 00:12:57,559 Speaker 8: very quickly. The second thing that we think they can 270 00:12:57,600 --> 00:12:59,920 Speaker 8: do is they can authorize a new five year lease 271 00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:03,560 Speaker 8: plan in the offshore Golf of Mexico. We need a 272 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:06,600 Speaker 8: five year releasing plan that prioritizes new leases in the 273 00:13:06,600 --> 00:13:09,080 Speaker 8: Golf of Mexico, which continues to be a prolific region 274 00:13:09,320 --> 00:13:11,880 Speaker 8: for the American oil and gas industry. About fourteen percent 275 00:13:11,920 --> 00:13:14,760 Speaker 8: of American oil comes from the Golf of Mexico, which 276 00:13:14,800 --> 00:13:19,160 Speaker 8: is why what President Biden did just yesterday in setting 277 00:13:19,160 --> 00:13:22,000 Speaker 8: aside a new acreage that we will not be able 278 00:13:22,040 --> 00:13:24,240 Speaker 8: to develop with so concerning and so disappointing. 279 00:13:24,559 --> 00:13:26,040 Speaker 4: Another big thing that we're focused on. 280 00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:30,280 Speaker 8: Is repealing the EPA tailpipe mandate, the ev mandate that 281 00:13:30,320 --> 00:13:33,000 Speaker 8: they put in place early in the Biden administration, and 282 00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:35,319 Speaker 8: we'll work with the Trump administration to get that repealed 283 00:13:35,559 --> 00:13:38,959 Speaker 8: and replace the cafe standards that our draconian and US 284 00:13:39,000 --> 00:13:41,680 Speaker 8: automakers can't meet. So those are three of the key 285 00:13:41,679 --> 00:13:44,560 Speaker 8: priorities that we want to focus on early in the administration. 286 00:13:44,800 --> 00:13:46,760 Speaker 8: And then in addition to that, we need to get 287 00:13:46,760 --> 00:13:48,599 Speaker 8: a new tax bill in place before the end of 288 00:13:48,679 --> 00:13:53,640 Speaker 8: twenty twenty five. We're prioritizing things like the corporate tax rate, 289 00:13:53,720 --> 00:13:57,280 Speaker 8: of course, and then really focusing on how we continue 290 00:13:57,280 --> 00:14:02,040 Speaker 8: to build American geopolitical strength and energy trade throughout the world. 291 00:14:02,679 --> 00:14:06,440 Speaker 2: Green energy, How does green energy work with traditional energy? 292 00:14:06,520 --> 00:14:08,720 Speaker 2: I'm not sure what the preferred term is for oil 293 00:14:08,760 --> 00:14:11,439 Speaker 2: and gas, but how does green energy work with oil 294 00:14:11,480 --> 00:14:13,120 Speaker 2: and gas and traditional energy sources. 295 00:14:13,800 --> 00:14:15,400 Speaker 8: Well, the truth of the matter is is that we 296 00:14:15,440 --> 00:14:16,920 Speaker 8: know that we're going to need all sorts. 297 00:14:16,679 --> 00:14:18,800 Speaker 4: Of energy to meet the energy needs of the future. 298 00:14:19,160 --> 00:14:21,040 Speaker 8: If golden sas is right, and we're going to need 299 00:14:21,080 --> 00:14:23,600 Speaker 8: ten percent more energy for the next ten years to 300 00:14:23,640 --> 00:14:26,000 Speaker 8: support data centers and AI growth. 301 00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:28,400 Speaker 4: We're going to need all sources. 302 00:14:27,920 --> 00:14:29,880 Speaker 8: Of new energy, which is why it's important that we 303 00:14:29,920 --> 00:14:31,640 Speaker 8: get a new permitting bill in place that we can 304 00:14:31,640 --> 00:14:34,360 Speaker 8: build out not just oil and gas pipelines, but new 305 00:14:34,360 --> 00:14:38,560 Speaker 8: transmission lines for those new energy sources as well. The 306 00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:40,840 Speaker 8: great thing about natural gas in particular is that it 307 00:14:40,880 --> 00:14:45,520 Speaker 8: can support these alternative energy sources as well. Because we 308 00:14:45,560 --> 00:14:47,320 Speaker 8: know that the wind isn't always blowing and the sun 309 00:14:47,360 --> 00:14:49,320 Speaker 8: isn't always shining, you're going to need something to back 310 00:14:49,360 --> 00:14:53,320 Speaker 8: that up. And natural gas is almost always the preferred 311 00:14:53,760 --> 00:14:56,520 Speaker 8: energy of choice when backing up those sources. 312 00:14:56,840 --> 00:14:58,960 Speaker 4: So we know that we're going to need more energy. 313 00:14:59,000 --> 00:15:01,160 Speaker 8: We don't just need all of the above, but more 314 00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:04,440 Speaker 8: of all if we're going to be successful in leading 315 00:15:04,480 --> 00:15:05,359 Speaker 8: the future. 316 00:15:05,280 --> 00:15:06,920 Speaker 4: Particularly when it comes to AI. 317 00:15:07,520 --> 00:15:10,120 Speaker 8: So we want to work with our partners in the 318 00:15:10,160 --> 00:15:13,720 Speaker 8: other energy system to make sure that we can continue 319 00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:14,360 Speaker 8: to expand. 320 00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:17,680 Speaker 5: So Mike also, yeah, I would say a popular talking 321 00:15:17,720 --> 00:15:20,800 Speaker 5: point for Republicans was that we need to get rid 322 00:15:20,840 --> 00:15:22,880 Speaker 5: of the Inflation Reduction Act. But if you dig into 323 00:15:22,880 --> 00:15:24,360 Speaker 5: a lot of the details, a lot of the oil 324 00:15:24,360 --> 00:15:27,240 Speaker 5: guys and natural gas guys like the Inflation Reduction Act 325 00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:30,160 Speaker 5: in things like carbon capture credits right forty five Q. 326 00:15:30,880 --> 00:15:33,840 Speaker 5: New rules on the hydrogen tax credit forty five V 327 00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:36,320 Speaker 5: were unveiled that people were pretty happy with because it 328 00:15:36,400 --> 00:15:39,120 Speaker 5: had a broader swath of the energy that you could 329 00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:40,960 Speaker 5: use to make hydrogen. 330 00:15:41,520 --> 00:15:43,560 Speaker 3: Are you guys happy with those things right now? 331 00:15:44,560 --> 00:15:46,880 Speaker 8: I actually feel pretty good about our ability to defend 332 00:15:46,920 --> 00:15:49,680 Speaker 8: the forty five tax credits Q and V are the 333 00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:52,160 Speaker 8: ones that are most important to us for carbon. 334 00:15:51,920 --> 00:15:53,120 Speaker 4: Capture and hydrogen. 335 00:15:53,160 --> 00:15:55,800 Speaker 8: We were pleased with the Biden administration rules, though we 336 00:15:55,800 --> 00:15:58,320 Speaker 8: think they could be improved under President Trump on both 337 00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:01,840 Speaker 8: ccs and HIGH, so we'll work with the Trump administration 338 00:16:01,880 --> 00:16:04,400 Speaker 8: to improve those. But there are provisions I think that 339 00:16:04,880 --> 00:16:08,280 Speaker 8: under the Inflation Reduction Act that are vulnerable, particularly the 340 00:16:08,440 --> 00:16:11,320 Speaker 8: funds from the Loan Program Office, which has just become 341 00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:15,640 Speaker 8: a giant slush fund for favored industries under the Biden administration. 342 00:16:16,120 --> 00:16:18,880 Speaker 8: So I do think the funds that haven't been obligated 343 00:16:18,920 --> 00:16:23,000 Speaker 8: yet under the Loan Program Office are very vulnerable. As 344 00:16:23,040 --> 00:16:26,800 Speaker 8: Congress that looks towards towards reconciliation, so that's where I 345 00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:28,160 Speaker 8: think most of the purpose will be. 346 00:16:28,320 --> 00:16:30,200 Speaker 5: But some of the money from the Department of Loan 347 00:16:30,560 --> 00:16:34,320 Speaker 5: Office is going to like companies that produce a nuclear 348 00:16:34,600 --> 00:16:38,800 Speaker 5: or have natural gas. It's not just like Rando green technology. 349 00:16:39,200 --> 00:16:41,200 Speaker 5: How are you going to distinguish that? Because if you 350 00:16:41,200 --> 00:16:43,520 Speaker 5: need the loan in order to say, restart a nuclear 351 00:16:43,560 --> 00:16:48,560 Speaker 5: plan or work into small modular reactors, for example, what 352 00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:49,280 Speaker 5: do you think about that? 353 00:16:50,040 --> 00:16:51,880 Speaker 8: Well, I think that's going to be something that Congress 354 00:16:51,920 --> 00:16:54,200 Speaker 8: is going to have to sort out and the administration 355 00:16:54,280 --> 00:16:56,040 Speaker 8: is going to have to sort out. I'm pretty sure 356 00:16:56,080 --> 00:16:58,000 Speaker 8: that at the beginning of the administration what they're going 357 00:16:58,040 --> 00:16:59,920 Speaker 8: to do is they're going to freeze all new funds 358 00:17:00,280 --> 00:17:02,960 Speaker 8: coming from the Loan Program Office until they get a 359 00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:05,040 Speaker 8: better sense as to what to leave in and what 360 00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:06,920 Speaker 8: to leave out. And that'll be up to the new 361 00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:10,159 Speaker 8: Energy Secretary, Chris Right And you know, I'm confident that 362 00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:13,280 Speaker 8: they'll be able to figure out what they should what 363 00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:15,640 Speaker 8: they should focus on, and the things that they need 364 00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:16,640 Speaker 8: to leave behind. 365 00:17:17,320 --> 00:17:18,800 Speaker 4: But that'll be up to the administration. 366 00:17:19,080 --> 00:17:20,800 Speaker 8: You know, our focus is going to be on advancing 367 00:17:20,840 --> 00:17:24,919 Speaker 8: a reconciliation bill that supports American energy that means new 368 00:17:25,000 --> 00:17:28,800 Speaker 8: leases in the offshore, new leases on shore reopening Alaska, 369 00:17:28,840 --> 00:17:32,800 Speaker 8: which President Biden has taken a particularly focus on in 370 00:17:32,880 --> 00:17:36,080 Speaker 8: terms of cutting off the amount of oil and. 371 00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:38,040 Speaker 4: Gas that we can produce in the state of Alaska. 372 00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:40,240 Speaker 8: So we're confident that we're going to be able to 373 00:17:40,240 --> 00:17:43,199 Speaker 8: prevail on the administration and the Congress to advance new 374 00:17:43,280 --> 00:17:46,880 Speaker 8: leasing priorities as they get that big new reconciliation bill. 375 00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:48,320 Speaker 4: On what do we have you heard? 376 00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:50,719 Speaker 2: What have been I guess maybe any rubblings coming out 377 00:17:50,760 --> 00:17:54,080 Speaker 2: of this new Trump administration about how aggressive they planned 378 00:17:54,119 --> 00:17:55,960 Speaker 2: to be as a related to oil and gas. 379 00:17:56,640 --> 00:17:58,120 Speaker 4: I think they plan to be very aggressive. 380 00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:00,880 Speaker 8: I mean, as you know, the President has really focused 381 00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:05,000 Speaker 8: on how do we continue to grow this tremendous American resource. 382 00:18:05,280 --> 00:18:06,800 Speaker 4: We're producing about thirteen. 383 00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:09,160 Speaker 8: Point four million barrels of oil everying a single day, 384 00:18:09,200 --> 00:18:13,000 Speaker 8: which is a record. We're producing records amounts of natural gas. 385 00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:15,719 Speaker 8: But we also see record demand for these products, not 386 00:18:15,760 --> 00:18:17,600 Speaker 8: just record demand for oil and gas, but also record 387 00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:20,360 Speaker 8: demand for coal and other sources as well. And that's 388 00:18:20,359 --> 00:18:24,040 Speaker 8: because we're starting to see this demand continue to increase. 389 00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:26,320 Speaker 8: This we're in a different era than we were during 390 00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:29,720 Speaker 8: the first Trump administration, where energy demand was relatively stable 391 00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:33,440 Speaker 8: during the first Trump administration. Everything's changed in the last 392 00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:37,040 Speaker 8: eight years where you have new sources of demand, growing 393 00:18:37,240 --> 00:18:39,760 Speaker 8: data centers of course AI more things. 394 00:18:39,520 --> 00:18:41,000 Speaker 4: Being plugged into the electric grid. 395 00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:43,800 Speaker 8: So I think what President Trump understands is that we're 396 00:18:43,800 --> 00:18:46,199 Speaker 8: going to need a lot of energy going forward if 397 00:18:46,200 --> 00:18:48,040 Speaker 8: we're going to win the energy security race. 398 00:18:48,359 --> 00:18:50,359 Speaker 3: Hey, Mike, it's always going to catch up. So many 399 00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:52,560 Speaker 3: more things to talk about. We'll get you back. 400 00:18:52,600 --> 00:18:55,320 Speaker 5: We'll go through them also, and like really questioning how 401 00:18:55,320 --> 00:18:57,040 Speaker 5: we're going to get pipelines built, So next time we'll 402 00:18:57,040 --> 00:19:01,200 Speaker 5: tackle that. Mike Summer's API president and CEO, and I 403 00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:05,400 Speaker 5: should point out also the sponsor of land Fans Paramount 404 00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:08,000 Speaker 5: plus well not mine, but the API that feels important 405 00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:08,280 Speaker 5: to say. 406 00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:13,680 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 407 00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:16,840 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple Coarclay, and Android 408 00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:20,160 Speaker 1: Otto with the Bloomberg Business Up. Listen on demand wherever 409 00:19:20,200 --> 00:19:23,760 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 410 00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:29,280 Speaker 5: In the meantime, we're seeing ramped up pressure on Chinese 411 00:19:29,280 --> 00:19:33,760 Speaker 5: companies and their relationship to the US. There's a growing 412 00:19:33,920 --> 00:19:38,359 Speaker 5: backlist of those Chinese tech giants, and it's happening pretty 413 00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:41,119 Speaker 5: quickly and the current as Bloomberg Global Economy Reporter, we 414 00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:43,160 Speaker 5: got news about ten Cent just in the last twenty 415 00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:45,760 Speaker 5: four hours. Where do we stand today versus where we 416 00:19:45,800 --> 00:19:47,240 Speaker 5: stood like six months ago. 417 00:19:48,440 --> 00:19:51,520 Speaker 9: So it's another day, another series of companies being added 418 00:19:51,600 --> 00:19:54,280 Speaker 9: to this list. As you mentioned, Alex, it's basically list 419 00:19:54,359 --> 00:19:57,760 Speaker 9: by the US government. DOT says these Chinese companies are 420 00:19:57,800 --> 00:20:01,399 Speaker 9: working in collaboration with the Chinese mili and although it 421 00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:04,359 Speaker 9: doesn't apply sanctions on those companies, it will make it 422 00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:06,560 Speaker 9: awkward for US companies to do business with them. And 423 00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:10,560 Speaker 9: as you mentioned, we've had some new editions. Ten Cent 424 00:20:11,119 --> 00:20:13,560 Speaker 9: probably one of the best known internet companies in China, 425 00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:15,920 Speaker 9: best known for its apps and it's gaming for example, 426 00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:19,200 Speaker 9: not known to be in the military civil fusion space, 427 00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:21,359 Speaker 9: but has been added to the list. Nonetheless than some 428 00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:23,000 Speaker 9: of the hawks in DC have been calling for it 429 00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:25,960 Speaker 9: to happen. CATL which makes the batteries for the big 430 00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:29,560 Speaker 9: EV car makers, including Tesla, that's gone on the list, 431 00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:32,680 Speaker 9: with potential ramifications for the supply chain story there. There's 432 00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:35,960 Speaker 9: also a shipping company Costco, and some other big well 433 00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:39,359 Speaker 9: known Chinese companies as well, And of course the Chinese 434 00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:42,919 Speaker 9: authorities in Beijing have responded. They say they hope the 435 00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:45,960 Speaker 9: US will undo this wrongdoing, and of course we know 436 00:20:46,080 --> 00:20:48,639 Speaker 9: China has options of retaliation of its own. They've been 437 00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:51,320 Speaker 9: expanding their own their own kind of so called anty 438 00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:53,520 Speaker 9: lists as well. So it's just another example of the 439 00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:56,520 Speaker 9: ongoing tensions between both and the tit for tap between 440 00:20:56,560 --> 00:20:57,600 Speaker 9: both governments as well. 441 00:20:57,760 --> 00:21:00,679 Speaker 3: I mean, we all the government undo this snjen Ey twentieth. 442 00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:04,639 Speaker 9: Well, it's a tricky one because you would assume the 443 00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:08,480 Speaker 9: incoming Trumpe administration are as hawkish as the Biden administration, 444 00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:11,000 Speaker 9: if not more holkish. You know, everyone's trying to i't 445 00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:13,800 Speaker 9: hook each other on China at the moment, Alex, So 446 00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:16,080 Speaker 9: I don't know whether or not there will be a reversal. 447 00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:19,600 Speaker 9: Obviously there's a complication there with CAATL being so critical 448 00:21:20,280 --> 00:21:22,600 Speaker 9: to the Tesla supply chain, so that will be one 449 00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:23,959 Speaker 9: worth keeping a close one. 450 00:21:24,119 --> 00:21:26,080 Speaker 4: But broadly speaking of though, you'd. 451 00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:28,840 Speaker 9: Have to say the direction of travel when it comes 452 00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:33,879 Speaker 9: to export controls or investment restrictions or potentially tariffs on 453 00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:36,359 Speaker 9: goods made in China coming from China into the US 454 00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:39,359 Speaker 9: and curbs and doing business and people flowing the like. 455 00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:42,080 Speaker 9: That's all been going in one direction. So the Biden 456 00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:45,280 Speaker 9: administration seems to be cementing its own hawkish legacy, putting 457 00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:47,600 Speaker 9: its own stamp on this before they finish up. And 458 00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:49,480 Speaker 9: it's kind of hard to imagine too much it is 459 00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:51,000 Speaker 9: being online by the Trumpet administration. 460 00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:53,520 Speaker 5: So I guess then the obvious question is who's next? 461 00:21:53,560 --> 00:21:55,240 Speaker 5: And I don't know if we know that right, Like 462 00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:57,359 Speaker 5: you mentioned Tencent, like that was kind of a surprise 463 00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:01,000 Speaker 5: over the last twenty four hours. But sector why, company wise, 464 00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:02,000 Speaker 5: market cap wise? 465 00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:03,920 Speaker 3: Who do we think might be next? 466 00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:06,360 Speaker 9: It is hard to say, Alex because, like you say, 467 00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:09,520 Speaker 9: we've gone now from you might say maybe obvious companies 468 00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:12,040 Speaker 9: who you could say are clearly aiding or were the 469 00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:17,200 Speaker 9: US does month to aid China's technology aspirations. It's CHIP aspirations, 470 00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:20,439 Speaker 9: it's AI aspirations, companies that aren't necessarily in that space. 471 00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:22,760 Speaker 9: So certainly it's been broadened. Now that list looks like 472 00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:25,440 Speaker 9: it's been broadened, So you know, we could go anywhere 473 00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:28,280 Speaker 9: from here. But the real question is when the Trump 474 00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:30,360 Speaker 9: administration comes in a couple of weeks time, what will 475 00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:33,119 Speaker 9: their initial focus be. Will it be on goods trade. 476 00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:36,159 Speaker 9: Will they go hard with the tariffs which the President 477 00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:38,520 Speaker 9: elect Trump has obviously spoken about so many times, or 478 00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:40,880 Speaker 9: will they get off to to an early start also 479 00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:44,520 Speaker 9: with ongoing investment restrictions, expert controls, restrictions. 480 00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:45,080 Speaker 4: On technology and the like. 481 00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:47,080 Speaker 9: And if it's that, then that's where we will see 482 00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:48,840 Speaker 9: this list coming onder more scrutiny again in terms of 483 00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:49,800 Speaker 9: where they do go with it. 484 00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:53,360 Speaker 5: Any response from China in terms of how they retaliate 485 00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:54,960 Speaker 5: in this particular kind of instance. 486 00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:58,080 Speaker 9: They had, well, they the firm industry over and I 487 00:22:58,119 --> 00:23:00,719 Speaker 9: didn't respond to say that. Look, they obviously disagree with this, 488 00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:02,439 Speaker 9: They want the US to want to do it. They 489 00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:05,080 Speaker 9: refer to it as wrongdoing. But we know that China 490 00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:08,320 Speaker 9: does have options through Italiate, they've developed something of an 491 00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:11,480 Speaker 9: anty list of their own ALEX where they're putting US 492 00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:13,639 Speaker 9: companies on their list, where they're making it harder to 493 00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:16,600 Speaker 9: do business with Chinese companies, putting restrictions on the flow 494 00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:19,679 Speaker 9: of say, critical minerals resources, that kind of thing that 495 00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:23,160 Speaker 9: US companies might need. So China has options respond where 496 00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:25,720 Speaker 9: they are in this space. But as also though, there's 497 00:23:25,720 --> 00:23:27,720 Speaker 9: also been some mixed mood music coming out of Beijing, 498 00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:30,240 Speaker 9: they've been saying that when it comes to goods trade 499 00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:33,000 Speaker 9: at least that you know, they're open to listening. There 500 00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:35,440 Speaker 9: could be some negotiation or deeds to be done and 501 00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:37,520 Speaker 9: on that side of things. And I think that's why 502 00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:40,040 Speaker 9: this China US trade story is going to be very 503 00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:43,240 Speaker 9: much an evolving one as the new new administration gets. 504 00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:43,639 Speaker 4: Up and running. 505 00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:47,760 Speaker 5: When you take a look then at how that does evolve. 506 00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:51,320 Speaker 5: Does China then wind up shipping more stuff to say, 507 00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:53,840 Speaker 5: other g Seven countries and then it winds up having 508 00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:57,480 Speaker 5: this weird supply glut elsewhere, and then how that affects 509 00:23:57,560 --> 00:23:59,879 Speaker 5: trade dynamics within the US. 510 00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:04,000 Speaker 9: Yeah, the trade anmaks are definitely being up ended at 511 00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:06,080 Speaker 9: the moment. As you say, you know, even if China 512 00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:09,399 Speaker 9: comes under tariffs or export controls or restrictions with the US, 513 00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:13,160 Speaker 9: they either their a final new markets to your point, 514 00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:15,960 Speaker 9: or they you know, they shift them of that production 515 00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:18,560 Speaker 9: over to third party countries and then from there they 516 00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:21,560 Speaker 9: ship the US and kind of scared these controls. That's 517 00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:23,919 Speaker 9: been an ongoing issue and that's probably one that's going 518 00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:26,720 Speaker 9: to come under scrutiny. I think when the new administrator 519 00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:30,080 Speaker 9: comes in and that's partly why some people think universal 520 00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:32,760 Speaker 9: tariffs are being talked about this time around, in terms 521 00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:36,040 Speaker 9: of trying to make sure China doesn't come through those loopholes. So, 522 00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:38,960 Speaker 9: you know, if you think back at the first Triple administration, 523 00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:42,399 Speaker 9: those tariffs were kind of broad brush. They were continued 524 00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:44,960 Speaker 9: by by the administration. But there's a feeling that this 525 00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:46,600 Speaker 9: time we're going to have to be more surgical and 526 00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:48,240 Speaker 9: make sure that those loopholes are closed. 527 00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:49,720 Speaker 3: All right, and I always good to catch up. 528 00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:52,760 Speaker 5: Thanks a lot and the current Bloomberg Global Economy reporter 529 00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:53,920 Speaker 5: joining us there. 530 00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:56,440 Speaker 3: Speaking of eleven o'clock, I. 531 00:24:56,359 --> 00:24:57,919 Speaker 5: Mean, we'll take bets on whether or not that as 532 00:24:57,960 --> 00:25:00,240 Speaker 5: actually as eleven we're going to have a president like 533 00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:02,920 Speaker 5: Trump remarks from our lago in Pombee, Florida, So I'll 534 00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:05,720 Speaker 5: bring that to you. I'm at around eleven thirty, we'll 535 00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:09,399 Speaker 5: have Jensen Wang of Nvidia speaking to Ed Ludlow. We 536 00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:13,119 Speaker 5: will also be updating you on those headlines as well. 537 00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:18,679 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 538 00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:22,320 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each 539 00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:26,080 Speaker 1: weekday ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com. 540 00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:29,760 Speaker 1: The iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. 541 00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:33,120 Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 542 00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:35,760 Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal