WEBVTT - Air India Crash Kills Over 200 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:10.520 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. This is Bloomberg business 0:00:10.560 --> 0:00:14.440 Week Daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders 0:00:14.440 --> 0:00:18.400 stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends 0:00:18.400 --> 0:00:22.640 shaping today's complex economy, plus global business. 0:00:22.239 --> 0:00:24.560 Finance and tech news as it happens. 0:00:24.840 --> 0:00:29.080 The Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast with Carol Masser and 0:00:29.160 --> 0:00:31.760 Tim Steneveek on Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:32.400 --> 0:00:35.199 As we mentioned, we are bringing you the latest on 0:00:35.440 --> 0:00:38.120 everything when it comes to the tragedy of this seven 0:00:38.159 --> 0:00:41.960 eighty seven Dreamliner operated by Air India that crashed, helping 0:00:42.000 --> 0:00:44.480 turn twenty twenty five into one of the deadliest years 0:00:44.520 --> 0:00:48.000 in the past decade for civil aviation. Right now, Sean Duffy, 0:00:48.040 --> 0:00:50.839 the Transportation Secretary, is giving a press conference. Much of 0:00:50.880 --> 0:00:53.840 the press conference not focused on this crash, but a 0:00:53.840 --> 0:00:58.760 couple headlines emerging. The Transportation Secretary is saying that they're 0:00:58.760 --> 0:01:02.240 deploying the FA and n TSB teams on Air India crash, 0:01:02.400 --> 0:01:06.360 though India will lead the investigation and the US will assist. 0:01:06.480 --> 0:01:08.640 All right, so let's get more on all of this 0:01:09.360 --> 0:01:12.640 joining us right now from excuse me, I'm a little confused. 0:01:12.920 --> 0:01:14.280 London are going to go to London. 0:01:14.360 --> 0:01:17.679 Let's go to London and go to George Ferguson. He's 0:01:17.720 --> 0:01:21.000 senior aerospace and defense and airlines analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence. 0:01:21.000 --> 0:01:24.399 He joins us from London. George, I want to get 0:01:24.440 --> 0:01:26.640 you know you've been flying actually today when we spoke, 0:01:26.680 --> 0:01:29.679 when we heard from you earlier on Bloomberg, I heard 0:01:29.720 --> 0:01:33.880 that you were in was it Oslo earlier in the day. 0:01:34.120 --> 0:01:36.720 This is all setting up, yeah, all setting up for 0:01:36.760 --> 0:01:39.600 you to, I think, and do some European work in 0:01:39.640 --> 0:01:44.119 the coming weeks. Sean, excuse me and George, we're hearing 0:01:44.120 --> 0:01:46.600 from Sean Duffy that India will lead this investigation, the 0:01:46.720 --> 0:01:49.520 US will assist. Is this typically how it works when 0:01:49.520 --> 0:01:55.080 it comes to how the FAA investigates, I. 0:01:55.000 --> 0:01:56.160 Think it is pretty standard. 0:01:56.160 --> 0:01:58.960 I think the fa obviously gets involved because it's a 0:01:59.160 --> 0:02:03.320 US built aircraft, but typically I think they let the nation, 0:02:03.960 --> 0:02:07.520 you know, that's the airline operates and lead the investigation. 0:02:08.280 --> 0:02:10.200 Okay, so let's talk a little bit about what we've 0:02:10.240 --> 0:02:12.280 been able to glean just in a few hours since 0:02:12.320 --> 0:02:15.880 this tragedy. I want to talk about just the process 0:02:15.880 --> 0:02:18.520 of determining what happens here. And I think when you 0:02:18.560 --> 0:02:20.760 hear boeing and you hear a plane crash. Unfortunately, a 0:02:20.800 --> 0:02:23.200 lot of people, a lot of people's minds turned to 0:02:23.280 --> 0:02:25.640 what happened with the seven thirty seven Max and the 0:02:25.680 --> 0:02:29.919 disasters that were truly a result of I guess we 0:02:29.919 --> 0:02:32.960 could call it a manufacturing defect, a software defect that 0:02:33.000 --> 0:02:36.360 led to a longtime grounding of these airplanes. Given the 0:02:36.440 --> 0:02:39.480 history of the seven eighty seven, what's the right way 0:02:39.520 --> 0:02:41.000 to think about this tragedy. 0:02:42.280 --> 0:02:45.160 Yeah, I think that we don't have and we don't 0:02:45.160 --> 0:02:47.240 know for sure, right, but I think most of the 0:02:47.280 --> 0:02:49.320 science point to the fact that we don't have that 0:02:49.440 --> 0:02:54.600 kind of problem here, a systemic manufacturing problem. I mean, 0:02:54.639 --> 0:02:56.520 one of the things I look at is this airplane 0:02:56.560 --> 0:02:58.680 was in fleets for eleven years. 0:02:58.800 --> 0:03:01.560 That's a pretty long time to be lying. Uh, it's 0:03:01.960 --> 0:03:02.560 it's gone. 0:03:02.400 --> 0:03:06.600 Through some level of maintenance at Air India at this point. 0:03:07.040 --> 0:03:10.600 And you know the way the airplane crashed, you know 0:03:10.720 --> 0:03:14.000 it was it was in somewhat controlled flight, but looked 0:03:14.000 --> 0:03:17.880 like it couldn't get altitude. Typically on a takeoff, when 0:03:17.880 --> 0:03:21.000 an aircraft can't get altitude, there's some sort of problem 0:03:21.160 --> 0:03:25.600 with the engines. Those are ge engines on Air India's fleet. Again, 0:03:25.680 --> 0:03:27.720 eleven year old engine would have been maintained since it 0:03:27.800 --> 0:03:29.079 left Gees factories. 0:03:29.480 --> 0:03:31.320 So I'm wondering if it's. 0:03:31.120 --> 0:03:36.320 Either some level of maintenance or conditions there in the 0:03:36.680 --> 0:03:39.240 in the area today, George. 0:03:39.240 --> 0:03:41.680 Because of that, you know, both Tim and I were, 0:03:41.760 --> 0:03:43.560 you know, listening to you earlier. I believe it was 0:03:43.600 --> 0:03:45.960 on Bloomberg Surveillance and really kind of breaking it down 0:03:46.000 --> 0:03:47.960 and just saying that, you know, you look at the 0:03:48.040 --> 0:03:50.760 video and it seemed like everything was okay until it wasn't. 0:03:51.720 --> 0:03:54.480 And so you bring up the maintenance issue. How quickly 0:03:54.960 --> 0:03:57.560 do they figure something like that out? 0:03:59.720 --> 0:04:01.840 So you know, I would imagine that it's not going 0:04:01.880 --> 0:04:04.760 to be hard to find the recorders in this jet, 0:04:05.120 --> 0:04:07.880 and so that I would give him some sign as 0:04:07.880 --> 0:04:11.880 to where different throttle positions were and how much thrust 0:04:11.920 --> 0:04:16.760 the engine was producing. So I'd imagine, you know, in 0:04:17.000 --> 0:04:20.240 fairly short order they could probably get at least a 0:04:20.320 --> 0:04:22.280 sense for that, which I think is going to start 0:04:22.279 --> 0:04:25.440 to point them the right direction in the investigation. I 0:04:25.440 --> 0:04:28.040 guess as you're talking a couple of weeks, you know, 0:04:28.360 --> 0:04:30.040 not extended periods of time. 0:04:30.400 --> 0:04:31.719 We did speak with Julie Johnson. 0:04:31.760 --> 0:04:34.159 A little earlier, and she reminded us that there is 0:04:34.200 --> 0:04:38.200 this sort of checkered past when it comes to this plane, 0:04:38.240 --> 0:04:43.800 which includes some manufacturing issues just a few years ago, 0:04:43.880 --> 0:04:46.839 but before that the battery issues, and before that with 0:04:46.920 --> 0:04:50.360 the earliest planes there was the sort of retrofitting that 0:04:50.400 --> 0:04:51.279 she talked about. 0:04:51.880 --> 0:04:54.599 To you, George, is it too it's Does. 0:04:54.480 --> 0:04:56.200 It make sense to be talking about that in this 0:04:56.279 --> 0:04:58.719 context or has the track record of the seven eighty 0:04:58.760 --> 0:05:02.840 seven essentially proven that it's not something that has to 0:05:02.880 --> 0:05:05.080 do with the defect of the plane. 0:05:05.440 --> 0:05:05.640 Yeah. 0:05:05.960 --> 0:05:09.000 To me, again, the track record does indicate I think 0:05:09.040 --> 0:05:12.440 that the airplanes had been performing fine for sure. I mean, 0:05:12.480 --> 0:05:14.520 some of the latest challenges we had in the airplane 0:05:14.640 --> 0:05:20.000 was joining of the fuselage pieces together. But again, what 0:05:20.040 --> 0:05:23.160 we saw was in an airplane that was very much intact, 0:05:23.600 --> 0:05:26.240 it just looked like it couldn't develop enough lift. And 0:05:26.320 --> 0:05:30.039 so I'm just thinking it isn't you know, some of 0:05:30.080 --> 0:05:33.040 those defects that we're thinking there was no fire that 0:05:33.040 --> 0:05:35.760 the battery box issue would suggest if you're having that 0:05:36.279 --> 0:05:39.080 would be going on. So it just seems like, again 0:05:39.120 --> 0:05:43.240 it was just too stable. It was just too stable, 0:05:43.760 --> 0:05:46.760 and really again looked like an airplane, it couldn't develop 0:05:46.880 --> 0:05:49.640 enoughful lift. And so to me, the first place I'd 0:05:49.640 --> 0:05:52.839 be looking, I imagine investigators will too, will be to 0:05:52.839 --> 0:05:54.719 see how the engines were performing at that moment. 0:05:54.880 --> 0:05:57.080 Well, you mentioned engines, right, I'm looking at shares a 0:05:57.160 --> 0:05:58.960 ge George. They were down about two and a quarter 0:05:59.000 --> 0:06:02.920 percent today. Boeing was down about four point eight percent today. 0:06:03.560 --> 0:06:06.599 It's just one day trade, and obviously it's not surprising 0:06:06.640 --> 0:06:07.839 to see that kind of reaction. 0:06:08.800 --> 0:06:10.600 I just before we go back to ge I want 0:06:10.640 --> 0:06:11.040 to ask. 0:06:10.920 --> 0:06:13.360 You about Boeing as we get ready for the air show, 0:06:13.360 --> 0:06:16.040 the Powers Air Show, and I just wonder, you know, 0:06:16.360 --> 0:06:19.840 is it just Bowie's just had such a tough time 0:06:19.839 --> 0:06:21.320 and it felt like they were just kind of getting 0:06:21.360 --> 0:06:23.600 back on track. Tim and I were in a seven 0:06:23.640 --> 0:06:27.160 thirty seven Max and it's a really nice plane. 0:06:26.800 --> 0:06:28.159 And everything seemed brand new. 0:06:28.400 --> 0:06:28.919 Everything. 0:06:29.040 --> 0:06:32.480 It was just hard not to be impressed with it. 0:06:32.560 --> 0:06:35.120 Is this a problem for Boeing or it's not just 0:06:35.520 --> 0:06:37.719 you know, especially if it turns out to be something 0:06:37.760 --> 0:06:40.320 like a maintenance issue, because it just seems like everybody's like, 0:06:40.440 --> 0:06:42.800 you know, another thing in the air, another thing with Boeing. 0:06:44.520 --> 0:06:46.520 I do get the sense, like you said, that there's 0:06:46.560 --> 0:06:49.599 a lot of concern Boeing has had quality issues. 0:06:50.160 --> 0:06:51.560 You know, the questions are is this a. 0:06:51.480 --> 0:06:55.080 Manifestation of another quality issue or something we don't know 0:06:55.080 --> 0:06:59.080 at Boeing. Again, I from everything I've seen so far, 0:06:59.160 --> 0:07:01.960 I would tend to think I think it isn't. 0:07:01.960 --> 0:07:03.279 A Boeing quality issues. 0:07:03.720 --> 0:07:07.159 We never like to see airplane crashes, and for sure 0:07:07.279 --> 0:07:10.360 Boeing set its challenges, but Airbus does get them from 0:07:10.400 --> 0:07:11.040 time to time. 0:07:12.000 --> 0:07:13.280 But everything I'm. 0:07:13.080 --> 0:07:16.120 Seeing don't lead me to believe that it's a Boeing 0:07:16.200 --> 0:07:20.000 quality issue. And I wouldn't even think potentially a GE issue. 0:07:20.040 --> 0:07:21.760 I think it was in the field so long, it's 0:07:21.800 --> 0:07:23.000 probably not a GE issue. 0:07:23.120 --> 0:07:25.200 Will it bother either of them at the air show? 0:07:25.320 --> 0:07:28.760 I mean often we get right orders out of these shows. 0:07:28.840 --> 0:07:30.600 Do you think any of this is going to color 0:07:30.640 --> 0:07:32.200 any of that or change any of that? 0:07:33.840 --> 0:07:36.120 I think unless we would hear very shortly that again 0:07:36.120 --> 0:07:38.440 it was a problem with that some of their manufacturing. 0:07:38.720 --> 0:07:39.560 Yeah, No. 0:07:40.040 --> 0:07:42.160 Seven eighty seven is one of the airplanes. I think 0:07:42.520 --> 0:07:44.640 that you'll see a lot of competition around seven eight 0:07:44.680 --> 0:07:47.600 seven and eight three point fifty. Both of the manufacturers 0:07:47.800 --> 0:07:50.720 those are two competing products that they would like to 0:07:50.800 --> 0:07:55.680 increase production rates for. I suspect supply chains could probably 0:07:55.680 --> 0:07:58.360 boost a higher build rates in the near future on it. 0:07:58.400 --> 0:08:01.520 So we're kind of watching that competition at Paris there show. 0:08:01.520 --> 0:08:03.200 I think that could be some of the source of 0:08:03.320 --> 0:08:05.840 orders for both Airbus and Boeing. The A three fifty 0:08:05.920 --> 0:08:06.920 and seventy seven. 0:08:06.920 --> 0:08:10.520 Georgian the story the Bloomberg News story about this tragedy. 0:08:10.760 --> 0:08:14.800 It includes information about who was commanding the aircraft and 0:08:14.800 --> 0:08:18.440 who the first officer was. The commander of the aircraft 0:08:18.440 --> 0:08:21.520 eighty two hundred flying hours and then eleven hundred flying 0:08:21.520 --> 0:08:22.800 hours for the first officer. 0:08:22.840 --> 0:08:24.280 Eighty two hundred flying hours. 0:08:24.760 --> 0:08:27.640 That is a long career when it comes to any 0:08:27.680 --> 0:08:31.720 type of aviation. Yeah, yeah, I mean it doesn't seem 0:08:31.800 --> 0:08:33.239 like that serious experience. 0:08:33.600 --> 0:08:34.960 Yeah yeah, it. 0:08:34.920 --> 0:08:37.840 Wasn't an experience. I mean it seemed like the captain 0:08:37.840 --> 0:08:42.720 at a bunch of times. So yeah, I sometimes you know, 0:08:42.800 --> 0:08:46.000 things say I'm a databad, I'm not doing a great 0:08:46.080 --> 0:08:49.640 job of pronouncing that. I'm sure from what I understand 0:08:49.840 --> 0:08:52.960 is a hot and high city. And to remember, the 0:08:53.000 --> 0:08:57.960 airplanes also perform have to work harder, engines have to 0:08:58.000 --> 0:09:01.760 work harder to to get airplanes out of those kind 0:09:01.800 --> 0:09:05.480 of cities. So I'm you know, I'm wondering that if 0:09:05.520 --> 0:09:08.640 that is probably part of the problem here, where the 0:09:08.679 --> 0:09:12.120 engines are just worked really really hard, and maybe something 0:09:12.480 --> 0:09:15.280 something wet wrong in the engine that just couldn't wouldn't 0:09:15.280 --> 0:09:17.839 allowed to produce full lift and get out of there. 0:09:17.880 --> 0:09:19.840 Do we know is this kind of a newer route? 0:09:20.440 --> 0:09:22.240 I thought I thought I had seen Air India had 0:09:22.240 --> 0:09:26.160 recently opened this up, but I may have read that incorrectly. 0:09:26.240 --> 0:09:28.480 But is this a route that's been taken often? 0:09:29.679 --> 0:09:32.000 Yeah, not sure about that for sure. 0:09:32.040 --> 0:09:33.680 I've you know, I've heard flights in and out of 0:09:33.840 --> 0:09:36.680 the city, and you know, some cities you just have 0:09:36.720 --> 0:09:39.600 to sort of manage around, yeah, temperatures and how much 0:09:39.600 --> 0:09:42.760 you fill the airplane. You know, how much fuel you 0:09:42.880 --> 0:09:44.880 put on, how many passengers, how much cargo. 0:09:46.600 --> 0:09:48.280 But I'm not sure if it's new round. 0:09:48.360 --> 0:09:51.160 Hey, listen, because you are over there in London, I'm 0:09:51.200 --> 0:09:53.720 assuming I don't know, are you headed to the Paris 0:09:54.240 --> 0:09:57.559 or so I am tell us what's kind of We're 0:09:57.760 --> 0:09:59.880 you know, we always love checking in with you, And obvi, 0:10:00.280 --> 0:10:04.440 this is a difficult story, a tragic story and a 0:10:04.480 --> 0:10:07.720 story of human lives that are lost. But in our 0:10:07.800 --> 0:10:10.800 last minute, curious about kind of what's top of mind 0:10:10.880 --> 0:10:12.840 is that that show gets underway. 0:10:13.880 --> 0:10:15.559 Yeah, and so we're going to put a report out 0:10:15.559 --> 0:10:18.840 tomorrow on the Bloomberg terminal. But I think, you know, 0:10:19.000 --> 0:10:20.760 we don't see a lot of orders coming out of 0:10:20.760 --> 0:10:23.240 the show this year. I think tariffs are probably going 0:10:23.280 --> 0:10:26.480 to be the dampening factor. I think everyone wants to 0:10:26.520 --> 0:10:29.960 figure out what the effects tariff have on their aircraft deliveries. 0:10:30.320 --> 0:10:34.080 We're watching deliveries, seeing recent deliveries. Last month's deliveries for 0:10:34.120 --> 0:10:37.520 Airbus and Boeing. Airbus had a few into the US, 0:10:37.559 --> 0:10:40.880 but less than usual. Boeing had really none into Europe, 0:10:40.920 --> 0:10:44.080 where I think they're both experiencing tariffs. So I think 0:10:44.200 --> 0:10:45.000 that kind. 0:10:44.760 --> 0:10:48.880 Of well, it's a great sky over lovely Paris. 0:10:48.920 --> 0:10:50.840 Just in the last thirty seconds that we have with you, 0:10:51.320 --> 0:10:53.240 it seems like Boeing has is starting to be used 0:10:53.280 --> 0:10:55.520 as a bargaining chip to its advantage when it comes 0:10:55.520 --> 0:10:57.760 to the way that the President is negotiating these things. 0:10:57.920 --> 0:10:58.719 What's your view on that. 0:10:59.640 --> 0:11:01.520 Yeah, expecting more of that, and I think that's one 0:11:01.559 --> 0:11:04.240 of the reasons Boeing probably has the best potential for 0:11:04.360 --> 0:11:05.000 more orders. 0:11:05.160 --> 0:11:07.240 Orders have been light in the last couple of years. 0:11:07.280 --> 0:11:10.199 I think is Boeing's customers watch build rates and look 0:11:10.240 --> 0:11:13.440 for confidence that Boeing is getting that production act together. 0:11:13.880 --> 0:11:15.520 Boeing is starting to show that. 0:11:15.800 --> 0:11:17.600 So we think this year could probably be pretty good 0:11:17.840 --> 0:11:19.599 and we think the President's going to probably try to 0:11:19.720 --> 0:11:23.400 use it to balance trade with partners that might be 0:11:23.760 --> 0:11:26.400 in his words, off sides on trade. So it could 0:11:26.400 --> 0:11:28.520 be a good year for sales for Boeing. I'm not 0:11:28.559 --> 0:11:30.480 sure it's going to come through at the show, but 0:11:30.520 --> 0:11:31.880 we're looking for a pretty good year for su. 0:11:31.880 --> 0:11:34.319 Yeah, and you could see investor sentiment has certainly been 0:11:34.440 --> 0:11:37.480 much more optimistic on Boeing. That stocks up about fifteen 0:11:37.480 --> 0:11:40.040 percent year to date, and that's even with the more 0:11:40.080 --> 0:11:44.679 than four percent four point eight percent drop in today's session. George, Thanks, 0:11:44.720 --> 0:11:47.080 We know it's later over by you, and we're glad 0:11:47.080 --> 0:11:48.040 we could touch base with you. 0:11:48.080 --> 0:11:50.880 Busy day and I know you've got a busy week ahead. 0:11:50.880 --> 0:11:54.319 George Ferguson, senior Aerospace, Defense and Airlines analyst, our go 0:11:54.360 --> 0:11:57.880 to on all things when it comes to airlines and aerospace. 0:11:57.960 --> 0:12:01.520 Of course, here at our Bloomberg Intelligence joining us from London. 0:12:02.280 --> 0:12:06.120 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast. Catch 0:12:06.200 --> 0:12:09.400 us live weekday afternoons from two to five eastering. Listen 0:12:09.440 --> 0:12:13.040 on Apple Karplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, 0:12:13.200 --> 0:12:15.720 or watch us live on YouTube. 0:12:15.960 --> 0:12:17.520 Do you want to point out the US dollar did 0:12:17.520 --> 0:12:19.840 fall to its lowest in three years. I'm at PPI 0:12:20.000 --> 0:12:22.720 data well, at the same time, President Trump's terror threats 0:12:22.720 --> 0:12:26.959 revived concerns over US economic outlook. So together the jobless 0:12:26.960 --> 0:12:29.240 claims jumping to the highest since the end of twenty 0:12:29.280 --> 0:12:31.240 twenty one. Although Mike just gave us some great perspective 0:12:31.240 --> 0:12:34.000 on that the data push traders to add tibets that 0:12:34.080 --> 0:12:35.160 the Fed. 0:12:35.920 --> 0:12:38.600 Might be a little bit more aggressive this year. 0:12:38.880 --> 0:12:41.720 Yeah, with a look at how FX and pressure on 0:12:41.760 --> 0:12:45.000 the US dollar. We've got a jat Bardwash joining us, 0:12:45.040 --> 0:12:48.880 Director in FX and EM Strategy at TD Securities, joined 0:12:48.960 --> 0:12:52.520 us here in the Bloomberg Business Week Studio. JT welcome, 0:12:52.559 --> 0:12:54.200 Good to have you. I want to start with the 0:12:54.200 --> 0:12:57.000 week dollar. As Carol mentioned, I mean, we're seeing weakness 0:12:57.040 --> 0:12:59.080 that we haven't seen in years here in the US 0:12:59.400 --> 0:13:02.120 big picture. What is the signal that that sends about 0:13:02.160 --> 0:13:04.840 the faith of the US economy and the way that 0:13:04.880 --> 0:13:07.560 investors both here in the US and internationally are thinking 0:13:07.559 --> 0:13:08.600 about the US right now. 0:13:09.440 --> 0:13:11.760 Thank you so much for having me. I think definitely 0:13:11.800 --> 0:13:14.720 the move in effects has been very interesting because we've 0:13:14.720 --> 0:13:17.600 seen yields go back up higher, you know, even equities 0:13:17.640 --> 0:13:19.680 have tried to go back higher to pre Trump levels, 0:13:20.000 --> 0:13:23.000 but the dollar has just been collapsing. Nothing gets the 0:13:23.040 --> 0:13:27.439 dollar to rally. Strong US data, hawkish fed tariff threads, 0:13:27.640 --> 0:13:30.840 you know, geopolitical uncertainty rising, Nothing is you know, fueling 0:13:30.880 --> 0:13:33.640 any strength in the dollar. I think what this is 0:13:33.679 --> 0:13:37.800 indicating is probably a shift in global investor preferences. For 0:13:37.840 --> 0:13:40.840 the last five years, people have been long US assets, 0:13:41.120 --> 0:13:44.400 and interestingly, they have been long US assets unheedged because 0:13:44.440 --> 0:13:46.800 you could also, you know, always rely on a very 0:13:46.800 --> 0:13:50.120 strong dollar return to get a nice boost to your portfolio. 0:13:50.360 --> 0:13:53.440 But that's not happening anymore. And from the data we have, 0:13:53.600 --> 0:13:56.280 we do see that investors are finally starting to change 0:13:56.280 --> 0:13:58.840 their hedging practices. They are now waking up to the 0:13:58.840 --> 0:14:01.520 fact that they cannot no longer rely on the dollar 0:14:01.640 --> 0:14:04.960 just coming back to its strong, raging days, and they 0:14:05.000 --> 0:14:08.000 actually need to hedge that exposure. In order to do that, 0:14:08.120 --> 0:14:10.600 you need to be sending dollars in forward markets, which 0:14:10.640 --> 0:14:13.800 is likely what's structurally keeping the dollars so weak right now. 0:14:13.920 --> 0:14:16.320 So that's the difference the hedging that we're seeing that 0:14:16.360 --> 0:14:18.400 we haven't seen for a long time, where the US 0:14:18.520 --> 0:14:21.560 was kind of Tina right, the only like it just 0:14:21.560 --> 0:14:24.640 seemed like all investors wanted to be a dollar based US, 0:14:24.720 --> 0:14:27.440 dollar based investments. So what we're seeing now is hedging 0:14:27.480 --> 0:14:30.360 and that's making an impact. Yes, does it make does 0:14:30.640 --> 0:14:32.560 is it assigned to I mean, do you go as 0:14:32.600 --> 0:14:36.160 far jt that it's the idea that the US is uninvestable? 0:14:36.160 --> 0:14:38.400 Tim and I like to ask this question because yeah, 0:14:38.440 --> 0:14:40.680 it's a great headline, but it's more important. It would 0:14:40.720 --> 0:14:43.480 be a very different mind frame, investing mind frame. 0:14:44.440 --> 0:14:46.560 I think that's that's the one question that you know, 0:14:46.600 --> 0:14:47.720 we've been trying to answer. 0:14:48.080 --> 0:14:50.760 You know, the gap. The Treasury auction just went well, like, 0:14:50.920 --> 0:14:53.640 so investors saw that instable. Yeah, exactly. 0:14:54.200 --> 0:14:55.960 So I would say the gap between the US and 0:14:56.000 --> 0:14:58.120 the rest of the world has been extremely wide for 0:14:58.160 --> 0:15:00.440 the last five years. I wouldn't say it has been 0:15:00.480 --> 0:15:04.119 completely bridged to zero. But the gap is definitely meaningfully 0:15:04.160 --> 0:15:07.160 shrinking enough from both sides, the US thanks to its 0:15:07.160 --> 0:15:10.240 own policies. But the one silver lining from all of 0:15:10.280 --> 0:15:13.720 this is that it's actually forcing other countries to introspect. 0:15:14.200 --> 0:15:18.200 They're now looking at more fiscal spending domestically. They're actually 0:15:18.200 --> 0:15:22.360 also looking at cutting intra regional trade trade barriers. They're 0:15:22.360 --> 0:15:25.240 also talking amongst each other to you know, have stronger 0:15:25.600 --> 0:15:29.800 intraregional trading relationships, so that all is actually making the 0:15:29.800 --> 0:15:32.680 rest of the world more investible. I wouldn't say that 0:15:32.720 --> 0:15:36.000 the US has completely you know, given up its crown position, 0:15:36.480 --> 0:15:38.480 but I would definitely say that there are a lot 0:15:38.560 --> 0:15:41.360 more investable places are now coming up to the surface 0:15:41.440 --> 0:15:43.880 where they had been very underground for the last five years. 0:15:43.920 --> 0:15:45.960 So is it, forgive me, what is it about them 0:15:46.000 --> 0:15:50.280 being underground and becoming above ground in recent years or 0:15:50.400 --> 0:15:53.320 is it about risks that investors see to the US 0:15:53.320 --> 0:15:54.400 in your view, great question. 0:15:54.560 --> 0:15:55.160 I think it's. 0:15:55.320 --> 0:15:57.840 Both coming together at the same time. And you could 0:15:57.880 --> 0:16:00.840 say the sources is the same, right, because the US 0:16:00.880 --> 0:16:03.400 tanks for its own policies, is actually not forcing the 0:16:03.400 --> 0:16:05.840 rest of the world to step up. The European Union 0:16:06.080 --> 0:16:09.200 is taking a much more proactive approach to talks with 0:16:09.400 --> 0:16:12.800 Russia Ukraine. Something they've not done right. The world realizes 0:16:12.840 --> 0:16:15.120 they can no longer just you know, solely rely on 0:16:15.160 --> 0:16:18.120 the US for everything, and they are being forced to 0:16:18.160 --> 0:16:20.640 step up and actually do a lot more of themselves. 0:16:20.320 --> 0:16:21.520 Well, just to push even further. 0:16:21.640 --> 0:16:23.400 I mean, and Tim knows, I've asked this a lot 0:16:23.440 --> 0:16:26.680 coming off of Milkin, which was back in May last month. 0:16:26.920 --> 0:16:28.920 But the whole idea, and what we kept hearing from 0:16:28.920 --> 0:16:31.720 a lot of folks was that it's not the case 0:16:31.760 --> 0:16:35.200 of the US being uninvestable. It's just that investors became 0:16:35.560 --> 0:16:39.920 overbalanced in their portfolio overexposed, i should say, to US 0:16:39.960 --> 0:16:43.880 dollar based investments, and so now they're you know, reallocating 0:16:44.040 --> 0:16:45.200 and rebalancing. 0:16:45.320 --> 0:16:49.480 But almost felt like, wait a minute, is that just 0:16:49.520 --> 0:16:50.840 an excuse. 0:16:52.280 --> 0:16:55.520 To kind of cover the idea that people are turning 0:16:55.520 --> 0:16:58.960 away from the US and not so comfortable with the 0:16:59.120 --> 0:17:02.760 US and risk And that's why so tie that in also, 0:17:02.920 --> 0:17:03.440 if you would. 0:17:03.840 --> 0:17:06.000 So for the last five years, the US has been 0:17:06.119 --> 0:17:09.280 relying on the kindness of strangers because all the global 0:17:09.320 --> 0:17:12.080 portfolio managers and the savers of the world in Europe, 0:17:12.080 --> 0:17:15.080 in Asia, they all had been piling money into the US. 0:17:15.400 --> 0:17:17.560 You had the chase for carry, you had the commodity 0:17:17.560 --> 0:17:20.080 shock where the US was energy independent, and you had 0:17:20.119 --> 0:17:22.960 an exceptionally strong and growing US. So all the three 0:17:23.080 --> 0:17:26.439 factors which were driving investment in global markets resided in 0:17:26.480 --> 0:17:30.080 the US with the US, so everything was a US investment. 0:17:30.280 --> 0:17:34.560 US equity investment has ballooned. In fact, foreigner investment holding 0:17:34.560 --> 0:17:36.760 of US equities as a share of market cap has 0:17:36.800 --> 0:17:40.200 also been going higher. That also actually led to a 0:17:40.320 --> 0:17:43.560 very strong and overvalued dollar. So the overvalued dollar vent 0:17:43.600 --> 0:17:46.480 hand in hand with very strong portfolio investment into the US, 0:17:46.840 --> 0:17:48.879 and that's why both of them are being questioned at 0:17:48.880 --> 0:17:51.480 the same time. The dollar as a diversifier, as a 0:17:51.520 --> 0:17:55.240 safe haven, we see those correlations are breaking down. The dollar, 0:17:55.320 --> 0:17:57.200 actually it's on some days. I actually think it is 0:17:57.240 --> 0:17:59.439 trading a lot more like an emerging market than it 0:17:59.520 --> 0:18:01.800 is like a say and unfortunately. 0:18:01.480 --> 0:18:05.200 So wait a minute, so, net net, is this better 0:18:05.400 --> 0:18:09.800 for the global investment environment the long term? Is this 0:18:10.119 --> 0:18:15.359 not so great for the US investment market? Is it 0:18:15.400 --> 0:18:17.600 also all the result of President Trump? 0:18:18.359 --> 0:18:22.160 I think net net, it's a healthy recalibration of markets, 0:18:22.200 --> 0:18:24.600 you know, like the last five years, we've all come 0:18:24.640 --> 0:18:28.120 to two points where we're like, is the US markets? 0:18:28.160 --> 0:18:32.200 Are they overvalued? Are they bubbled up? Is our evaluations expensive? 0:18:32.600 --> 0:18:35.359 I think this was a very healthy recalibration that was needed. 0:18:35.600 --> 0:18:38.040 For the last many years, every most markets have been 0:18:38.040 --> 0:18:40.199 a pure dollar bat What are US rates doing? What 0:18:40.240 --> 0:18:42.400 are US secretaries doing? What is the US dollar doing? 0:18:42.800 --> 0:18:45.480 But I think this levels the playing field a little 0:18:45.480 --> 0:18:47.200 bit now. Which is which is healthy? 0:18:47.200 --> 0:18:49.760 I think is it the result of President Trump and 0:18:49.840 --> 0:18:50.400 his policies? 0:18:50.480 --> 0:18:51.920 Just I think it is definite it is. 0:18:52.400 --> 0:18:55.560 The one source is the policies of the current administration 0:18:55.640 --> 0:18:59.639 and just the volatility associated with it. The one interesting 0:18:59.640 --> 0:19:01.760 thing in all of this is that while the US 0:19:01.800 --> 0:19:04.560 is trying to negotiate with ninety countries in ninety days, 0:19:04.840 --> 0:19:07.520 those other countries have only one country to negotiate with. 0:19:07.880 --> 0:19:11.879 So that is also one factor which is equating the 0:19:12.000 --> 0:19:13.000 US for the rest of the world. 0:19:13.000 --> 0:19:15.119 At this point, just about forty five seconds left. I know, 0:19:15.160 --> 0:19:18.199 emerging markets and FX is what you focus on. Is 0:19:18.200 --> 0:19:19.520 Bitcoin on your radar at all? 0:19:19.560 --> 0:19:23.680 In that context, we prefer not to comment on bitcoin. 0:19:24.280 --> 0:19:28.000 That's not under a purview of coverage. But I would 0:19:28.040 --> 0:19:30.320