WEBVTT - Racial Cloud Over McDonald's Golden Arches

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Karl Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanobek. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube search Bloomberg Clobal News. Well, Kitty Gradfeld and I

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<v Speaker 1>have been talking about it throughout the first bit of

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<v Speaker 1>our program this afternoon, and that's the rising COVID cases

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<v Speaker 1>that we're seeing here in New York City and around

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<v Speaker 1>the world and around the United States, just ahead of

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<v Speaker 1>the holiday season. Here in New York, new daily cases

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<v Speaker 1>are at levels not seen since last April, that was

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<v Speaker 1>before the Delta variant ripped through the country. On a

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<v Speaker 1>US basis, we're seeing new COVID cases at levels that

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<v Speaker 1>we saw on the down trend of the Delta variant

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<v Speaker 1>back in September, so definitely a concerning story playing out.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's get some details from Dr Ian LUs Beder, clinical

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<v Speaker 1>professor of Medicine at n y U Lang going to

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<v Speaker 1>medical center. He joins us once again on the phone

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<v Speaker 1>from New York City. How are you, Dr LUs Bader, Hey,

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<v Speaker 1>Tim and Katie, Thanks Sheppy Friday. I'm doing well, but

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<v Speaker 1>I'm definitely perceiving a lot of market volatility, a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of emotional volatility, because patients are calling in droves with

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<v Speaker 1>newly positive nasal SWR. Wow. Okay, So that's interesting to

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<v Speaker 1>note that, because you know, it's quite a different tone

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<v Speaker 1>than we had last week when we last spoke to you,

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<v Speaker 1>and it certainly feels like things have shifted a lot

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<v Speaker 1>where we are in a few days. I told Katie

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<v Speaker 1>this earlier this week, but the lines outside of testing

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<v Speaker 1>facilities in my neighborhood are stretching down the block, sometimes

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<v Speaker 1>even to the next block. The number of people waiting

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<v Speaker 1>for tests out. What's going on, Dr LUs Bader, is it?

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<v Speaker 1>Is it a mix of people getting tested before traveling,

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<v Speaker 1>or is indeed we're seeing a new surge here ahead

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<v Speaker 1>of the holidays. I think we're definitely seeing a new surge.

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<v Speaker 1>We're seeing a number of patients UM that have been

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<v Speaker 1>double and triple E vaccinated. Colleagues that I work with

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<v Speaker 1>in the hospital nurses, UM we've had three vaccines, have

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<v Speaker 1>a running nosecloth cold, they get swabbed their PCR positive.

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<v Speaker 1>I suspect most of these are O macron which are

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<v Speaker 1>really breaking through the vaccines, and we are seeing a

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<v Speaker 1>surge of increased, almost a doubling in the number of

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<v Speaker 1>positive cases. So uh. The good news though, is that

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<v Speaker 1>these really tend to be fairly mild. People have a headache,

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<v Speaker 1>muscle aches, kind of like a mild flu, not nearly

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<v Speaker 1>as bad as real influenza. And uh, unfortunately we don't

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<v Speaker 1>have a lot of treatment now available for them, the

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<v Speaker 1>monoclonal antibodies we are using, but now they're going to

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<v Speaker 1>be rationed a little bit. Well definitely, I'm sorry, Dr Lost,

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<v Speaker 1>I did just want to ask them given like you

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<v Speaker 1>say that, you know, it seems to be more mild

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<v Speaker 1>a macron very it is breaking through, but you're not

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<v Speaker 1>going to get as sick as maybe previously. I'm curious

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<v Speaker 1>how how much you think this current wave that we're

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<v Speaker 1>starting to see build might delay the return to normal,

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<v Speaker 1>whatever that looks like. I think it is going to

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<v Speaker 1>somewhat delay the return to normal. I mean, we've sort

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<v Speaker 1>of been predicting spring when this will all be over, right, Personally,

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<v Speaker 1>I still think you know that will be the case.

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<v Speaker 1>I do think oh Macron hopefully is the final variant

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<v Speaker 1>and maybe somewhat endemic or even like a yearly flu.

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<v Speaker 1>Possibly will get a yearly shot for it, although as

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<v Speaker 1>we know, the flu shot is not really effective either. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>My sense is that most people get over this quite well.

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<v Speaker 1>We are reserving monoclonal antibodies, which we were giving out

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<v Speaker 1>much more freely before, but now really can't do that

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<v Speaker 1>for people over sixty five or people under fifty or

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<v Speaker 1>people below sixty UM that have underlying diseases cardiovascular disease, diabetes,

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<v Speaker 1>lung disease. So it is being somewhat rationed UM and

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's appropriately so, because I think we were

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<v Speaker 1>giving it too mild to moderate symptoms, you know, and

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<v Speaker 1>people who would have gotten over this anyway within a

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<v Speaker 1>few days. And in some ways I think we're trying

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<v Speaker 1>to make the patients happy, but they probably didn't really

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<v Speaker 1>need that treatment anyway. The pills that are coming out. Certainly,

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<v Speaker 1>the Fiser pill is still going to be a little delayed.

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<v Speaker 1>It's it's a combination with right ton of her, which

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<v Speaker 1>is a protease inhibitor that you know has been used

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<v Speaker 1>for years with HIV. Very safe UM, but again not

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<v Speaker 1>not approved yet. So really we're treating people symptomatically and DR.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, like you said, you know plenty of people

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<v Speaker 1>double triple vaccinated who have had breakthrough cases. I know

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<v Speaker 1>plenty of such people in my own life, and I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know. I'm curious if you have any concerns that

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<v Speaker 1>that might dissuade people from getting the boost to this

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<v Speaker 1>sort of feeling that it's inevitable that I'm going to

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<v Speaker 1>get it anyway, Why why bother with another shot? I

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<v Speaker 1>think you raise a good point, and I think for

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<v Speaker 1>the people who are vaccine hesitant, over time, I think

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<v Speaker 1>it just reinforces why bother doing this? I'm going to

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<v Speaker 1>get it anyway, And to some degree I think that's true.

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<v Speaker 1>I think everyone will be getting O Macron sooner or

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<v Speaker 1>later unless you've really been able to isolate UM effectively.

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<v Speaker 1>The bottom line is, really the vaccines do seem to

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<v Speaker 1>help with with severity of illness, and I certainly feel

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<v Speaker 1>better having gotten a third booster shot. It's very hard

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<v Speaker 1>to measure specifically in any one individual if they're exposed,

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<v Speaker 1>because it really depends on the viral load. If if

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<v Speaker 1>someone is very sick with omicron and they cough in

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<v Speaker 1>your face, you're going to have a high viral load.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's very hard to measure. But I think the

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<v Speaker 1>vaccines are helpful. Um. I think if you haven't been vaccinated,

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<v Speaker 1>certainly be very careful going out in crowds because there's

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<v Speaker 1>a long incubation period. People seem very minimally sick, and

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<v Speaker 1>they can be very contagious. Dr lust Beder, we have

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<v Speaker 1>thirty seconds left with you. Should people rethink gathering together

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<v Speaker 1>for the holidays, Yes, to some degree, I think they

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<v Speaker 1>should be careful. I'm not sure how I think everyone

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<v Speaker 1>is going to wind up with omicron sooner or later.

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<v Speaker 1>But I think if you are healthy and you've been

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<v Speaker 1>a triple vaccinated, get together with family. I think if

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<v Speaker 1>you haven't been vaccinated, or if you have underlying disease,

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<v Speaker 1>I would be very careful at this point, and until

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<v Speaker 1>we have a little more data on Dr Ian LUs Beder,

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<v Speaker 1>we are really grateful you join us each and every week.

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<v Speaker 1>He's clinical professor of medicine at n y U Lane

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<v Speaker 1>Goes Medical Center. He joins us on the phone from

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<v Speaker 1>New York City, said it several times, Katie, everyone is

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<v Speaker 1>going to get it sooner or later. I mean, that's

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<v Speaker 1>the moon music. It feels like everyone I talked to

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<v Speaker 1>they're just you know, looking at their watch, wondering what

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<v Speaker 1>their time is. Do alright, such such as where we

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<v Speaker 1>are right now? Happy Friday, everyone is Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio. Well. McDonald's was once celebrated in black entrepreneurial circles.

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<v Speaker 1>Now though it's settling with black franchise the owners who

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<v Speaker 1>say that they were blocked from the best and most

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<v Speaker 1>profitable locations. In fact, in a little over a year,

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<v Speaker 1>McDonald's has faced multiple lawsuits that McDonald's itself practices his

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<v Speaker 1>own form of redlining. It's the subject of a detailed

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<v Speaker 1>Its subject of a detailed story by Susan Burfield, senior

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<v Speaker 1>investigative reporter for Bloomberg Business Week. She joins us on

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<v Speaker 1>the phone from Brooklyn. Joel Webber joins us as well

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<v Speaker 1>editor of Bloomberg business Week. He's on the access line

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<v Speaker 1>from Brooklyn, Joel. To understand the story of of what's

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<v Speaker 1>going on right now at McDonald's, you have to go

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<v Speaker 1>back decades, all the way back to the nineteen seventies

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<v Speaker 1>and the nineteen eighties. What did McDonald's do then in

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<v Speaker 1>order to attract black franchise owners. Well, it was one

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<v Speaker 1>of the first corporations that really UH did a job

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<v Speaker 1>of being proactive about welcoming black franchisees. UM. And there's

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<v Speaker 1>some nuance to that, but UH, for the large part,

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<v Speaker 1>and this is what you said at the top, there

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<v Speaker 1>there was an entrepreneurial spirit and welcoming of the black

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<v Speaker 1>community to own McDonald's. UM. And Susan's reporting really UM,

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<v Speaker 1>which is just incredible, but largely centers on on one

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<v Speaker 1>character UH phone named Herb Washington, who who kind of

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<v Speaker 1>speaks to that comes from that era. UM and started

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<v Speaker 1>with one franchise and quickly amassed others UM. At one

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<v Speaker 1>point he was had in the twenties, UM, but they

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<v Speaker 1>were never turned out, never quite the best locations. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>And that led to a lawsuit that just settled yesterday.

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<v Speaker 1>But Susan Before we get into all that, who is

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<v Speaker 1>Herb Washington and what was the opportunity that he saw

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<v Speaker 1>in owning McDonald's. Yeah, so thanks UM. You know, I

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<v Speaker 1>think for Washington and a lot of other black entrepreneurs,

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<v Speaker 1>McDonald's offered them an opportunity to own a business um

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<v Speaker 1>UM and to be part of a system UM at

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<v Speaker 1>a time when those kinds of opportunities were often denied

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<v Speaker 1>to them. And so you know, Herb had been UM

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<v Speaker 1>a track star in college. He briefly played for the

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<v Speaker 1>Oakland A's UM and then he decided he wanted to

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<v Speaker 1>be a businessman. UM. He was given a first restaurant

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<v Speaker 1>in Rochester, New York, in a neighborhood that was pretty

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<v Speaker 1>impoverished and mostly black and Hispanic residents. And what he

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<v Speaker 1>realized over the next couple of years is that there

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<v Speaker 1>was a pattern at McDonald's, and that was that they

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<v Speaker 1>initially believed that UM, it was best to put black

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<v Speaker 1>owners UM into in black neighborhoods. You know, civil rights

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<v Speaker 1>activists wanted it, UM it seemed good for the community

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<v Speaker 1>these UM definitely was good for McDonald's. But over time,

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<v Speaker 1>and what herbs experience showed is that that also served

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<v Speaker 1>to constrain them to those neighborhoods and made it harder

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<v Speaker 1>for them to own restaurants in communities um that were

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<v Speaker 1>either more diverse or more white and well off, where

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<v Speaker 1>the restaurants were usually easier to run and often more profitable.

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<v Speaker 1>And Susan lock me through how this relationship works. Because

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<v Speaker 1>McDonald's owns the actual restaurant building, right. And then you know,

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<v Speaker 1>franchisees such as Washington have to pay them rents, right

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<v Speaker 1>so we yeah, so I mean everyone calls them owners,

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<v Speaker 1>but what they own really is the equipment inside the restaurants, um,

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<v Speaker 1>the sign you know, outside the restaurant. M McDonald's own

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<v Speaker 1>the building. The franchisees pay rent um, they pay a

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<v Speaker 1>percent of their sales to McDonald's. UM, they pay all

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<v Speaker 1>kinds of fees to McDonald's. Of course, they have to

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<v Speaker 1>follow McDonald's rules, um, and so they are beholden um

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<v Speaker 1>to the corporation. McDonald's of course wants them to succeed.

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<v Speaker 1>But you know, if they don't, McDonald's is not really

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<v Speaker 1>responsible for helping them. You know. So when the franchisees

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<v Speaker 1>or if franchise's fall into financial trouble, sometimes they have

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<v Speaker 1>to take on a lot of debt for these restaurants.

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<v Speaker 1>For McDonald's asked them to renovate restaurants that can be

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<v Speaker 1>quite costly. UM. You know, they bear um the burden

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<v Speaker 1>of those costs. So bring us up to speed to

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<v Speaker 1>where we are right now, Susan, and and where herb

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<v Speaker 1>Washington is with his lawsuit? What is what was he

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<v Speaker 1>looking for? And and what's the latest? Yeah, So, um,

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<v Speaker 1>her Washington has filed his lawsuit alleging racial discrimination in

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<v Speaker 1>the ways that you know we've just talked about in

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<v Speaker 1>February of this year, and his is actually the fourth

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<v Speaker 1>UM in about his year to make similar allegations. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>And last week McDonald's settled one of the other lawsuits

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<v Speaker 1>brought by two other franchisees. And just yesterday, UM it's

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<v Speaker 1>settled with her Washington. UM it bought him out entirely.

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<v Speaker 1>So it purchased thirteen of his restaurants UM for his

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<v Speaker 1>restaurants are total and paid him thirty three point five

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<v Speaker 1>million dollars for them. So UM, as of yesterday, Her Washington,

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<v Speaker 1>after forty years, is no longer part of McDonald's UM

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<v Speaker 1>and his restaurants in the hands of other franchisees, which

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<v Speaker 1>you know speaks to. There's there's two lawsuits that you

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<v Speaker 1>mentioned there. One was a class action lawsuit that settled

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<v Speaker 1>a week ago. There's two other ones that you mentioned

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<v Speaker 1>the story that are also related. And just curious, like

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<v Speaker 1>what does what does this mean altogether when you when

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<v Speaker 1>you step back, can and think about you know, these

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<v Speaker 1>culminating lawsuits and somebody like Washington like bringing all together?

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<v Speaker 1>What does it all mean? Susan, Yeah, well, I think

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<v Speaker 1>you know McDonald's is being held to account by UM,

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<v Speaker 1>the very people who you know, it has depended on

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<v Speaker 1>UM for many years to help it profit in the

0:13:20.280 --> 0:13:24.320
<v Speaker 1>black community, and you know, many of whom have profited themselves,

0:13:24.320 --> 0:13:27.560
<v Speaker 1>but you know they are they are UM, you know,

0:13:27.640 --> 0:13:33.400
<v Speaker 1>asking McDonald's to consider how it's treated them over many decades. UM.

0:13:33.400 --> 0:13:36.400
<v Speaker 1>You know McDonald's of course is not UM is settling.

0:13:36.480 --> 0:13:39.520
<v Speaker 1>You know, it is not admitting any guilt. UM you

0:13:39.559 --> 0:13:41.760
<v Speaker 1>know makes a point of saying that the court have

0:13:42.559 --> 0:13:45.640
<v Speaker 1>not found that it's violated any laws. But nonetheless, you know,

0:13:45.800 --> 0:13:51.120
<v Speaker 1>it wants UM these problems and these people to go away,

0:13:52.240 --> 0:13:54.720
<v Speaker 1>And Susan quickly, I am curious, you know, are there

0:13:54.760 --> 0:13:58.640
<v Speaker 1>any numbers we can attach to what this kind of

0:13:58.760 --> 0:14:02.480
<v Speaker 1>version of redlining has meant for those franchisees who are

0:14:02.480 --> 0:14:06.960
<v Speaker 1>in these areas. Yeah, so, in the lawsuits, some of

0:14:06.960 --> 0:14:10.920
<v Speaker 1>the franchisees claim that their stores brought in about seven

0:14:11.000 --> 0:14:17.040
<v Speaker 1>hundred thousand dollars less um than stores owned by other operators.

0:14:17.120 --> 0:14:20.520
<v Speaker 1>And so you could figure an average um store these

0:14:20.600 --> 0:14:24.800
<v Speaker 1>days makes about two point seven two point nine million dollars.

0:14:24.840 --> 0:14:27.560
<v Speaker 1>So you know, it's not that they're not making anything,

0:14:27.600 --> 0:14:31.640
<v Speaker 1>but seven hundred thousand dollar sales difference is pretty considerable. Well,

0:14:31.680 --> 0:14:34.320
<v Speaker 1>it's just a great read. Susan, thank you so much

0:14:34.440 --> 0:14:37.520
<v Speaker 1>for taking the time and for joining us on Bloomberg

0:14:37.560 --> 0:14:40.000
<v Speaker 1>Business Week. Be sure to check out Susan's story on

0:14:40.040 --> 0:14:42.840
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg terminal. You can also read it at Bloomberg

0:14:42.880 --> 0:14:46.360
<v Speaker 1>dot com as well. McDonald's made enemies of black franchise ease.

0:14:46.640 --> 0:14:49.600
<v Speaker 1>Now it's settling, is what Susan's story is called. That

0:14:49.640 --> 0:14:52.920
<v Speaker 1>Susan Burfield, Senior investigations reporter at Bloomberg Business Weeks. She

0:14:53.040 --> 0:14:54.960
<v Speaker 1>joins us on the phone from Brooklyn. Also joining us

0:14:55.040 --> 0:14:57.960
<v Speaker 1>Joel Weber, editor at Bloomberg Business Week. He's on the

0:14:58.000 --> 0:15:02.440
<v Speaker 1>access line from Brooklyn as Well, you're listening to Bloomberg

0:15:02.480 --> 0:15:06.160
<v Speaker 1>Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim

0:15:06.240 --> 0:15:11.080
<v Speaker 1>Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week

0:15:11.280 --> 0:15:15.280
<v Speaker 1>with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on

0:15:15.400 --> 0:15:19.200
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio. Tim, it feels like bitcoin cannot get off

0:15:19.200 --> 0:15:21.720
<v Speaker 1>the ground. We are closing out the fifth straight week

0:15:21.800 --> 0:15:25.640
<v Speaker 1>of losses. The price of bitcoin now below for thousand

0:15:25.720 --> 0:15:29.000
<v Speaker 1>dollars per coin. We're going to talk to Mark Michael Sonenshein.

0:15:29.080 --> 0:15:32.040
<v Speaker 1>He's the chief executive officer of Gray Skill. He joins

0:15:32.120 --> 0:15:34.640
<v Speaker 1>us on the phone from New York City. Michael, There's

0:15:34.680 --> 0:15:36.040
<v Speaker 1>so much I want to get into with you, but

0:15:36.080 --> 0:15:38.160
<v Speaker 1>I feel like we have to start with the biggest

0:15:38.160 --> 0:15:41.720
<v Speaker 1>cryptocurrency out there, Bitcoin. What is going on? It feels

0:15:41.760 --> 0:15:46.920
<v Speaker 1>like all of the excitement has really exited the crypto markets. Well,

0:15:46.960 --> 0:15:49.440
<v Speaker 1>first of all, great to be back talking to you guys,

0:15:49.520 --> 0:15:52.920
<v Speaker 1>But I have to say that prices have never been

0:15:53.040 --> 0:15:56.320
<v Speaker 1>and I don't think anytime soon will be the indicator

0:15:56.520 --> 0:16:00.040
<v Speaker 1>of excitement or activity in and around bitcoin or a

0:16:00.040 --> 0:16:03.440
<v Speaker 1>crypto asset class. I think from the lens that we

0:16:03.520 --> 0:16:06.600
<v Speaker 1>look through it at great scale. There is no question

0:16:06.760 --> 0:16:09.520
<v Speaker 1>that there is still as much as ever, it's not

0:16:09.560 --> 0:16:13.960
<v Speaker 1>a growing excitement around the asset class, the use cases

0:16:14.000 --> 0:16:19.600
<v Speaker 1>being developed, applications being developed. UM. While it grows user growth,

0:16:20.120 --> 0:16:22.760
<v Speaker 1>UM price is not going to be the best sentiment

0:16:22.920 --> 0:16:27.120
<v Speaker 1>indicator UM for activity on these networks. Okay, fair point,

0:16:27.160 --> 0:16:30.720
<v Speaker 1>fair point, But I am curious to hear your explanation

0:16:30.840 --> 0:16:36.040
<v Speaker 1>for why bitcoin is down over the past month. Well, listen,

0:16:36.280 --> 0:16:39.400
<v Speaker 1>as we've seen time and again, bitcoin has a period

0:16:40.400 --> 0:16:43.840
<v Speaker 1>of repeatable pattern rather of going through these you know,

0:16:43.880 --> 0:16:46.760
<v Speaker 1>bubbles and bursts, and each time it does that, you

0:16:46.840 --> 0:16:50.040
<v Speaker 1>see the price get a little bit overextended, course correct

0:16:50.200 --> 0:16:53.120
<v Speaker 1>forms a new base UM and then usually continue to

0:16:53.120 --> 0:16:56.480
<v Speaker 1>move out to new kind of all time highs. The

0:16:56.480 --> 0:16:59.920
<v Speaker 1>bitcoin price has obviously had a meteoric rise throughout twenty

0:17:00.440 --> 0:17:04.560
<v Speaker 1>one and I think what's so inspiring about being involved

0:17:04.560 --> 0:17:08.359
<v Speaker 1>with the asset class that it means something different to everyone.

0:17:08.760 --> 0:17:11.280
<v Speaker 1>So in some circles bitcoin may be seen as a

0:17:11.400 --> 0:17:14.080
<v Speaker 1>risk asset, and so in a world in which investors

0:17:14.080 --> 0:17:16.400
<v Speaker 1>may be taking money off the table and risk assets

0:17:16.400 --> 0:17:18.919
<v Speaker 1>as we may be seeing. Yet you know, another flare

0:17:18.920 --> 0:17:23.080
<v Speaker 1>off around the COVID nineteen pandemic um or investors may

0:17:23.080 --> 0:17:26.360
<v Speaker 1>be thinking about it as a store of value a head.

0:17:26.720 --> 0:17:30.320
<v Speaker 1>Everybody is using this as a slightly different tool um

0:17:30.400 --> 0:17:33.760
<v Speaker 1>And so over time we found that investors will continue

0:17:33.800 --> 0:17:36.640
<v Speaker 1>to allocate to the asset class. But after a year,

0:17:36.680 --> 0:17:38.440
<v Speaker 1>when it's had the run that it's that it's had,

0:17:38.760 --> 0:17:41.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, there's certainly could be some profit taking. Hey, Michael,

0:17:42.000 --> 0:17:44.359
<v Speaker 1>we haven't had a chance to speak with you since

0:17:44.680 --> 0:17:50.040
<v Speaker 1>the crypto executives faced questions from uh the House and

0:17:50.080 --> 0:17:53.040
<v Speaker 1>the Senate this week, the House last week. I'm wondering

0:17:53.320 --> 0:17:56.280
<v Speaker 1>your takeaways from those hearings. And and if you think

0:17:56.280 --> 0:18:00.399
<v Speaker 1>that regulators and lawmakers get it, I mean and if

0:18:00.440 --> 0:18:02.960
<v Speaker 1>you rewind the clock twenty four months ago, you couldn't

0:18:03.000 --> 0:18:05.720
<v Speaker 1>even get crypto to be spoken about on the floor

0:18:06.160 --> 0:18:09.520
<v Speaker 1>of the US Congress, right, And now we're having these

0:18:09.600 --> 0:18:14.080
<v Speaker 1>very meaningful conversations that really underscore, you know, the democratic

0:18:14.520 --> 0:18:17.920
<v Speaker 1>process that we have. The conversations that we've been seeing

0:18:18.040 --> 0:18:24.399
<v Speaker 1>taking place are really informed, thoughtful questions being highlighted by Congress. Right.

0:18:24.400 --> 0:18:27.520
<v Speaker 1>They're really listening and learning about the crypto industry, and

0:18:27.560 --> 0:18:30.639
<v Speaker 1>instead of really taking the time to focus on the

0:18:30.680 --> 0:18:35.280
<v Speaker 1>exaggerated risks or money laundering, or hats or ransomware. They're

0:18:35.280 --> 0:18:38.879
<v Speaker 1>actually starting to really ask questions about the benefits of

0:18:38.920 --> 0:18:43.080
<v Speaker 1>the asset class um using it to democratize finance, using

0:18:43.119 --> 0:18:46.840
<v Speaker 1>these technologies to democratize the lady Internet is being used.

0:18:47.040 --> 0:18:49.600
<v Speaker 1>And so we find this to be really really encouraging,

0:18:49.920 --> 0:18:53.240
<v Speaker 1>and it's certainly been proponents of seeing increased regulation that

0:18:53.280 --> 0:18:55.840
<v Speaker 1>will only lend itself to greater validity around the asset

0:18:55.840 --> 0:18:57.800
<v Speaker 1>class And Michael, I mean I would agree with you,

0:18:57.840 --> 0:19:01.359
<v Speaker 1>at least, especially in the house hearing. I was really

0:19:01.400 --> 0:19:03.960
<v Speaker 1>impressed by the quality of the questions, but it feels

0:19:03.960 --> 0:19:06.600
<v Speaker 1>like there's so many cooks in the kitchen when it

0:19:06.640 --> 0:19:09.320
<v Speaker 1>comes to crypto regulation. I want to talk about the

0:19:09.400 --> 0:19:13.720
<v Speaker 1>SEC because Gray Scale you've filed to convert your Gray

0:19:13.760 --> 0:19:17.240
<v Speaker 1>Scale Bitcoin Trust. It's the largest crypto fund in the world.

0:19:17.480 --> 0:19:20.120
<v Speaker 1>You filed to convert that into an e t F. Obviously,

0:19:20.560 --> 0:19:24.159
<v Speaker 1>physically backed e t f s for bitcoin aren't allowed yet.

0:19:24.400 --> 0:19:26.480
<v Speaker 1>But what caught my eye was in the past few weeks,

0:19:26.520 --> 0:19:29.320
<v Speaker 1>both gray Skill has submitted a letter and then coin

0:19:29.400 --> 0:19:32.760
<v Speaker 1>based this week on gray Skills Behalf submitted a letter

0:19:32.880 --> 0:19:36.199
<v Speaker 1>to the SEC, just really urging them to allow that

0:19:36.280 --> 0:19:38.840
<v Speaker 1>conversion to happen. And I guess i'd love to hear

0:19:39.359 --> 0:19:41.919
<v Speaker 1>why first of all, and whether or not you've have

0:19:42.200 --> 0:19:46.479
<v Speaker 1>a response yet from the SEC. Sure, So, the SEC

0:19:47.400 --> 0:19:52.160
<v Speaker 1>um has been exceedingly recepted to the crypto asta class overall,

0:19:52.280 --> 0:19:55.000
<v Speaker 1>and we've been engaging with them, you know, I would

0:19:55.040 --> 0:20:00.240
<v Speaker 1>say at least in two thousand six UM on r

0:20:00.320 --> 0:20:04.040
<v Speaker 1>EPs endeavors for the Great Scale Bitcoin Trust tick our

0:20:04.080 --> 0:20:08.000
<v Speaker 1>g b TC. What's been a really encouraging and really

0:20:08.040 --> 0:20:11.520
<v Speaker 1>meaningful milestone for the investment management industry is that this

0:20:11.600 --> 0:20:14.800
<v Speaker 1>year we saw the approval of not one, but several

0:20:14.880 --> 0:20:18.760
<v Speaker 1>bitcoin futures based ct s, and that signaled to us

0:20:18.760 --> 0:20:21.480
<v Speaker 1>a change in the posture of the SEC around these

0:20:21.520 --> 0:20:24.680
<v Speaker 1>types of products. But when we did see that, we

0:20:24.680 --> 0:20:26.960
<v Speaker 1>were also very quick to say that, while that is

0:20:27.000 --> 0:20:30.440
<v Speaker 1>a very meaningful step forward, well what about spot based

0:20:30.520 --> 0:20:34.880
<v Speaker 1>or physically back to bitcoin products like GBTC. And what's

0:20:34.920 --> 0:20:38.600
<v Speaker 1>interesting is that these two products are going to be

0:20:38.680 --> 0:20:42.000
<v Speaker 1>tied to that same underlying bitcoin market, which is where

0:20:42.040 --> 0:20:45.240
<v Speaker 1>the SEC has you know, really historically had their issues.

0:20:45.320 --> 0:20:49.440
<v Speaker 1>They want to see surveillance of the bitcoin market and um,

0:20:49.480 --> 0:20:51.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, the types of protections in place that they've

0:20:51.920 --> 0:20:56.080
<v Speaker 1>seen in equities and and other asset classes. And there

0:20:56.160 --> 0:20:59.720
<v Speaker 1>was a letter submitted on our behalf in filing first

0:20:59.760 --> 0:21:02.120
<v Speaker 1>for the E T F right, but actually called out

0:21:02.240 --> 0:21:05.320
<v Speaker 1>the fact that the SEC should really mean brain and

0:21:05.440 --> 0:21:10.000
<v Speaker 1>even playing field. Michael, Yeah, we unfortunately have to leave

0:21:10.000 --> 0:21:11.640
<v Speaker 1>it there because we are running up against the clock.

0:21:11.680 --> 0:21:14.119
<v Speaker 1>We love having you on. You've got to come back soon, please,

0:21:14.160 --> 0:21:16.800
<v Speaker 1>do we really appreciate it. Michael Sunshine is chief executive

0:21:16.800 --> 0:21:18.720
<v Speaker 1>officer at Grace Scale joining us on the phone from

0:21:18.720 --> 0:21:20.879
<v Speaker 1>New York City. You're listening to Bloomberg Radio and this

0:21:21.320 --> 0:21:27.800
<v Speaker 1>is Bloomberg Business Week. Yeah, but you let me drive.

0:21:28.080 --> 0:21:33.320
<v Speaker 1>Oh no, no, no, no, this is not a toy. Please,

0:21:33.400 --> 0:21:39.960
<v Speaker 1>I'll do bridevel. I want to drive. It's good question,

0:21:43.640 --> 0:21:47.679
<v Speaker 1>this is good Drive to the globe, mull drive up

0:21:48.240 --> 0:21:52.760
<v Speaker 1>down on Bloomberg Radio. It's Bloomberg Business Week and it's

0:21:52.760 --> 0:21:54.879
<v Speaker 1>time for it. Drive to the close. Katie and I

0:21:55.000 --> 0:21:57.760
<v Speaker 1>just talking about the indicase that we're seeing move lower

0:21:57.800 --> 0:21:59.760
<v Speaker 1>on the day today and look over the last five

0:21:59.840 --> 0:22:01.760
<v Speaker 1>day days and for the week, we're going to see

0:22:01.760 --> 0:22:04.800
<v Speaker 1>it down weeks, especially on the NASDAC, looking like it's

0:22:04.800 --> 0:22:07.000
<v Speaker 1>going to close by about three percent. Let's get into

0:22:07.000 --> 0:22:10.359
<v Speaker 1>it with Vince Nichols, global equity investment strategist at BNP

0:22:10.480 --> 0:22:14.320
<v Speaker 1>Pariba Asset Management. Vince, how are you. I'm doing well.

0:22:14.359 --> 0:22:16.400
<v Speaker 1>How are you all doing? I'm doing well. Thanks. Thanks

0:22:16.400 --> 0:22:18.480
<v Speaker 1>for joining us on the phone from New York City.

0:22:18.680 --> 0:22:20.480
<v Speaker 1>Then t help us make sense of this week. I mean,

0:22:21.119 --> 0:22:24.560
<v Speaker 1>where do we even begin. Obviously, global central banks a

0:22:24.600 --> 0:22:27.080
<v Speaker 1>huge part of it, inflation a huge part of it,

0:22:27.119 --> 0:22:29.000
<v Speaker 1>but also the rise of the amicron variant, and the

0:22:29.080 --> 0:22:30.840
<v Speaker 1>changing tone that we're seeing not just in New York

0:22:30.840 --> 0:22:36.720
<v Speaker 1>City but around the country. Yeah, I think those are all, um,

0:22:37.040 --> 0:22:39.560
<v Speaker 1>huge factors and all of this and and to the

0:22:39.680 --> 0:22:43.720
<v Speaker 1>larger point, Um, you know, we're we're entering two in

0:22:43.720 --> 0:22:47.760
<v Speaker 1>a very different place than we entered last year. We're

0:22:47.800 --> 0:22:52.240
<v Speaker 1>coming out of the pandemic, or at least thinking we were. Um,

0:22:52.280 --> 0:22:56.160
<v Speaker 1>you know, huge amounts of stimulus feeding the economy. NASS

0:22:56.200 --> 0:23:00.920
<v Speaker 1>compares versus last year and in both growth and economic

0:23:00.960 --> 0:23:04.840
<v Speaker 1>fundamentals or for corporates as well. Um, and this year

0:23:04.960 --> 0:23:09.120
<v Speaker 1>it's it's obviously a lot different. Uh, stimulus is rolling off. Um,

0:23:09.320 --> 0:23:11.440
<v Speaker 1>We're not going to see the same the same impact

0:23:11.880 --> 0:23:14.920
<v Speaker 1>either from the fiscal side of things or um for

0:23:15.040 --> 0:23:17.399
<v Speaker 1>monetary policy either and we saw that this week as

0:23:17.440 --> 0:23:20.520
<v Speaker 1>you mentioned UM, but the FED now on a double

0:23:20.920 --> 0:23:24.200
<v Speaker 1>of the pace that we originally expected for the tapering

0:23:24.840 --> 0:23:26.840
<v Speaker 1>UM and who knows where it goes from there either.

0:23:26.960 --> 0:23:29.480
<v Speaker 1>So I think there's a lot of uncertainty going into

0:23:29.520 --> 0:23:33.520
<v Speaker 1>this next year. Doesn't necessarily mean I'm bearished or we

0:23:33.560 --> 0:23:37.040
<v Speaker 1>as a firm our bearished, but I think one thing

0:23:37.119 --> 0:23:40.240
<v Speaker 1>that that's probable for next year is is more of

0:23:40.280 --> 0:23:42.840
<v Speaker 1>the same of this is a little bit more volatility.

0:23:43.200 --> 0:23:46.040
<v Speaker 1>And Vince, how do you position a portfolio around that

0:23:46.119 --> 0:23:48.520
<v Speaker 1>volatility and around some of those different factors that you

0:23:48.600 --> 0:23:51.480
<v Speaker 1>walked through the fact that you know, it's clear we're

0:23:51.520 --> 0:23:53.240
<v Speaker 1>not quite at the end of the tunnel when it

0:23:53.280 --> 0:23:55.760
<v Speaker 1>comes to the pandemic, that much is clear. And like

0:23:55.840 --> 0:23:58.560
<v Speaker 1>you said, the FED doubling the pace of the taper

0:23:58.600 --> 0:24:05.320
<v Speaker 1>really taking a hawk is tone here. It's it's tough, um,

0:24:05.440 --> 0:24:08.159
<v Speaker 1>but also it's great for active managers. Right, You're not

0:24:08.200 --> 0:24:11.800
<v Speaker 1>going to just see multiple expansion and everything kind of

0:24:11.880 --> 0:24:15.680
<v Speaker 1>rise in tandem. UM that there's going to be differentiation

0:24:16.000 --> 0:24:19.560
<v Speaker 1>in investments that are working investments that don't work. I

0:24:19.600 --> 0:24:24.160
<v Speaker 1>think it's important to focus on the bottom up UH

0:24:24.240 --> 0:24:27.399
<v Speaker 1>companies with cash flow, companies that have the ability to

0:24:27.760 --> 0:24:32.800
<v Speaker 1>pass on inflationary pressures to consumers UH. And those are

0:24:32.840 --> 0:24:36.920
<v Speaker 1>the companies with you know, enduring competitive advantages UM, whereas

0:24:36.960 --> 0:24:40.719
<v Speaker 1>others may face more margin pressure. Companies that are are

0:24:40.800 --> 0:24:43.000
<v Speaker 1>pre earnings if you want to be nice to them

0:24:43.119 --> 0:24:47.560
<v Speaker 1>or just uh nonprofitable to be a little bit more honest, UM,

0:24:47.800 --> 0:24:50.800
<v Speaker 1>those companies might be more challenged going forward and may

0:24:50.840 --> 0:24:55.240
<v Speaker 1>have less of a bid from optimistic UH market participants.

0:24:55.280 --> 0:24:57.960
<v Speaker 1>And you may see a decline and market participation as

0:24:58.000 --> 0:25:02.199
<v Speaker 1>well with less money in UM, you know, the retail

0:25:02.240 --> 0:25:05.920
<v Speaker 1>trader's pockets. UM. So I think, as I said, you're

0:25:05.920 --> 0:25:09.359
<v Speaker 1>gonna have more volatility, more dispersion, So I think important

0:25:09.400 --> 0:25:12.879
<v Speaker 1>to focus on fundamentals. I think also when as we

0:25:12.920 --> 0:25:18.879
<v Speaker 1>talked about inflation, it's UH. While our base case would

0:25:18.880 --> 0:25:21.320
<v Speaker 1>be that you're going to get a moderation of inflation

0:25:21.960 --> 0:25:24.840
<v Speaker 1>UH next year and pretty much throughout next year, so

0:25:25.080 --> 0:25:30.240
<v Speaker 1>decelerating pretty soon but still above trend and also very

0:25:30.359 --> 0:25:33.840
<v Speaker 1>high upside risks or a fat tail fattail risk to

0:25:33.880 --> 0:25:36.000
<v Speaker 1>the upside UH. And in that case, I think you

0:25:36.040 --> 0:25:38.880
<v Speaker 1>need to be prepared, um to have positions that will

0:25:38.920 --> 0:25:41.919
<v Speaker 1>do well in such an environment. Even when do you

0:25:41.920 --> 0:25:48.360
<v Speaker 1>think inflation will peak? That that's that's a great question. Um.

0:25:48.400 --> 0:25:50.320
<v Speaker 1>A lot of people smarter than me would have said

0:25:50.480 --> 0:25:52.720
<v Speaker 1>already that would have happened. Yeah, hence why we've retired

0:25:52.720 --> 0:25:55.080
<v Speaker 1>the word transitory at least if you're talking to right,

0:25:56.280 --> 0:26:01.040
<v Speaker 1>exactly exactly. Um So, not only the FED, but I

0:26:01.080 --> 0:26:04.800
<v Speaker 1>think economic forecasters at at at many banks, um and

0:26:05.200 --> 0:26:07.159
<v Speaker 1>people that are doing this professionally would have thought so

0:26:07.320 --> 0:26:10.080
<v Speaker 1>in many cases. Uh. And here we are the last

0:26:10.080 --> 0:26:13.160
<v Speaker 1>inflation report, um, the highest in decades. You know, that's

0:26:13.280 --> 0:26:17.080
<v Speaker 1>more than three decades, to be exact. Uh. And that's

0:26:17.080 --> 0:26:20.040
<v Speaker 1>that's that's an inflationary environment that many people in my

0:26:20.119 --> 0:26:23.520
<v Speaker 1>industry have not seen in their working careers. Um. So

0:26:23.880 --> 0:26:26.320
<v Speaker 1>it's going to be an interesting challenge. So to your question,

0:26:26.480 --> 0:26:28.199
<v Speaker 1>when do we think it will peak? You know, I

0:26:28.240 --> 0:26:31.400
<v Speaker 1>think base cases first half of the next year. At

0:26:31.440 --> 0:26:34.480
<v Speaker 1>some point we are starting to see a lot of

0:26:34.840 --> 0:26:39.000
<v Speaker 1>inflationary pressure's ease, and particularly the ones that we really

0:26:39.040 --> 0:26:43.080
<v Speaker 1>deemed to be transitory. Um So those those are starting

0:26:43.080 --> 0:26:48.520
<v Speaker 1>to roll over. But things like wage pressure things um.

0:26:49.040 --> 0:26:52.119
<v Speaker 1>Uh So some of these aspects of inflation may be

0:26:52.240 --> 0:26:57.560
<v Speaker 1>more sticky UM wages in particular, and I think that

0:26:57.720 --> 0:27:02.880
<v Speaker 1>could um for some upside risk to that outlook. Then

0:27:02.920 --> 0:27:05.480
<v Speaker 1>I'm hoping you can walk me through what this all

0:27:05.520 --> 0:27:07.359
<v Speaker 1>means for the bond market, because if I look at

0:27:07.359 --> 0:27:09.560
<v Speaker 1>the long end of the treasury curve, I see a

0:27:09.600 --> 0:27:12.080
<v Speaker 1>ten year yield that just can't seem to say, above

0:27:12.520 --> 0:27:15.280
<v Speaker 1>one point five per cent. And I mean we're talking

0:27:15.280 --> 0:27:18.200
<v Speaker 1>about inflation, the fact that so many people have been

0:27:18.280 --> 0:27:21.160
<v Speaker 1>wrong in trying to call the top. I mean, why

0:27:21.280 --> 0:27:26.679
<v Speaker 1>can't we get long end yields sustainably higher? You know,

0:27:26.760 --> 0:27:28.600
<v Speaker 1>that's a great question, and I'm a little bit out

0:27:28.600 --> 0:27:30.240
<v Speaker 1>of my element here, But the one thing I will

0:27:30.520 --> 0:27:34.600
<v Speaker 1>will say when I'm commenting on the bond market is, uh,

0:27:34.640 --> 0:27:39.160
<v Speaker 1>it's really surprising to see bond prices where they are

0:27:39.200 --> 0:27:42.119
<v Speaker 1>given the level inflation that we're seeing. Uh. You know,

0:27:42.240 --> 0:27:45.560
<v Speaker 1>so such a large percentage of fixing COUM assets out

0:27:45.600 --> 0:27:50.440
<v Speaker 1>there are having negative real returns UM and that's that's

0:27:50.440 --> 0:27:54.240
<v Speaker 1>surprising to me that investors would be comfortable taking that

0:27:54.359 --> 0:27:57.360
<v Speaker 1>on over a long period of time unless there's more

0:27:57.560 --> 0:28:01.600
<v Speaker 1>tactical investing in that area. And I would imagine. So

0:28:01.680 --> 0:28:05.199
<v Speaker 1>that's that's very surprising to me, even I know, at

0:28:05.240 --> 0:28:07.800
<v Speaker 1>the risk of at the risk of being a little

0:28:07.840 --> 0:28:09.680
<v Speaker 1>out of your element here, I'm just wondering, in your

0:28:09.720 --> 0:28:11.919
<v Speaker 1>view as somebody who focuses more inequities, what is the

0:28:11.960 --> 0:28:14.600
<v Speaker 1>signal that that's sending you, What is that telling you?

0:28:14.640 --> 0:28:18.720
<v Speaker 1>Why is that surprising to you? It's it's telling you

0:28:18.760 --> 0:28:20.840
<v Speaker 1>that had a lot of things have been bid up

0:28:21.040 --> 0:28:25.440
<v Speaker 1>in the last uh well certainly the last eighteen months,

0:28:25.480 --> 0:28:29.040
<v Speaker 1>but over the last decade as well. UM, simply global

0:28:29.080 --> 0:28:33.399
<v Speaker 1>financial crisis. You've seen we're in a bull market for

0:28:33.480 --> 0:28:36.280
<v Speaker 1>bonds for you know, I think approaching forty years now.

0:28:36.960 --> 0:28:40.040
<v Speaker 1>Maybe in an excess of that, I don't know exactly. UM,

0:28:40.120 --> 0:28:44.000
<v Speaker 1>that's that's very surprising to me. But it also shows

0:28:44.040 --> 0:28:47.600
<v Speaker 1>you that you're seeing bids across all asset classes. You're

0:28:47.600 --> 0:28:50.760
<v Speaker 1>seeing it, and even outside of equity and fixed income

0:28:50.800 --> 0:28:57.440
<v Speaker 1>and real estate UM, prices for assets universally are much higher.

0:28:57.480 --> 0:28:59.160
<v Speaker 1>And I think that that goes hand in hand with

0:28:59.480 --> 0:29:02.400
<v Speaker 1>some of the the accommodative policies that we've seen. Evince,

0:29:02.400 --> 0:29:03.480
<v Speaker 1>We're gonna have to leave it there, but thank you

0:29:03.520 --> 0:29:06.000
<v Speaker 1>so much for joining us on this Friday afternoon for

0:29:06.040 --> 0:29:08.560
<v Speaker 1>our Drive to the Close. That's Vince Nichols, global equity

0:29:08.600 --> 0:29:13.400
<v Speaker 1>investment specialist at BNP Perry bat Asset Management. Thanks for

0:29:13.440 --> 0:29:17.160
<v Speaker 1>listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud,

0:29:17.320 --> 0:29:19.440
<v Speaker 1>or Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to

0:29:19.480 --> 0:29:22.080
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0:29:22.200 --> 0:29:24.960
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