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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that Action Boss.

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Speaker 1: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 2: We're growing out, Joe spect I'm sitting up to cash stops.

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Speaker 1: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to win. That's incredible. Big bank, small bank. I

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Speaker 1: like to make money. All right, this is the ultimate kaba.

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Speaker 2: You want to pull, and we are underway.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm your host, Chris Raybond.

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Speaker 1: This is your NFL Week two betting preview. Today. Of

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Speaker 1: course we'll build our Sunday six pack of best bets

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Speaker 1: with the help of my co host, the Prime Minister

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Speaker 1: of Degenerate Nation, Stucky Stuck. How you feeling. I know

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Speaker 1: we were both pouring one out for the Panthers in

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Speaker 1: Week one and maybe for the season. But how you feeling?

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Speaker 2: Oh uh yeah, it was an interesting Week one. The

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Speaker 2: couple bad beats that we got out of the way,

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Speaker 2: I mean, I was disappointed that the Seahawks pushed on

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Speaker 2: the number that we gave out for the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 2: They should have won that game by like two three touchdowns.

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Speaker 2: They two safeties in the first half. It was ridiculous

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Speaker 2: how that came went. And then bow Nix goes down

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Speaker 2: the field and gets in the back door Tennessee covering.

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Speaker 2: They're up seventy nothing, don't allow an offensive touchdown and

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Speaker 2: don't cover plus four and a half. That's like a

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Speaker 2: once in a twenty year event that happened. So glad

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Speaker 2: to get that out of the way. But for all

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Speaker 2: the bad beats that I had all deserved for the Panthers,

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Speaker 2: call I just I told our producer Mitchell to start

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Speaker 2: scrubbing episodes from the summer anytime I mentioned the Panthers.

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Speaker 2: We'll get to that, but yeah, it was. It's good

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Speaker 2: to be back in the flow. As always, last week

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Speaker 2: was last week. We're on to this week. Last week

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Speaker 2: was last week. This week was this week. Next week'll

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Speaker 2: be next week.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I'll have that picture seared in my head

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Speaker 1: of Will Levis on his knees, not because he's kneeling

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Speaker 1: down to end the game, but because he just threw

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Speaker 1: a crippling pick six and he's not even chasing the guy.

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Speaker 1: It's like, you might as well just go get injury

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Speaker 1: injury yourself, like for all that and try to chase

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Speaker 1: him down or something, and just get on with Mason

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Speaker 1: Rudolph because that was that's bad, man. But like you said,

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Speaker 1: on to the next It'll start it out with Thursday

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Speaker 1: night football. We got a good one this week.

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Speaker 2: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 2: Let's bet Thursday night football.

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Speaker 1: Buffalo at Miami, the Dolphins favored by two points. The

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Speaker 1: total is forty nine. And I'll start by saying I

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Speaker 1: did play this under at fifty one. This is an

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Speaker 1: under that I tend to play every year because they

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Speaker 1: tend to schedule the Bills going to Miami early in

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Speaker 1: the year every year. It's happened a couple of times

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Speaker 1: already in the recent past, and it just tends to

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Speaker 1: be like a humid uh you know, hot game was

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Speaker 1: on the hotter side. It will be a night game,

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Speaker 1: so it won't be quite as you know, won't The

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Speaker 1: sun won't be doing anything. But yeah, it's gonna be

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Speaker 1: human and it's kind of a slog. And I don't think,

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Speaker 1: you know, it's weak two. So I don't think people

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Speaker 1: realize or uh you know that that this that can

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Speaker 1: kind of negatively impact points scoring, especially when you saw

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Speaker 1: Buffalo have a pretty high scoring game. I know Miami

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Speaker 1: was kind of disappointing. I mean, talk about a bad beat.

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Speaker 1: Almost lost to Jacks too, could have gone up twenty

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Speaker 1: four to seven and uh and I had to sweat

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Speaker 1: that out.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, it was that fourth one play call was something.

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Speaker 2: They just melting down after that after an at and fumble.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, it's like the one thing about betting

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Speaker 1: I feel like is you start to you start to

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Speaker 1: realize exactly when guys are gonna melt down before it happens, like, uh,

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Speaker 1: even even something that is sim because like I'm hining

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Speaker 1: the Broncos this year, so like I was just I

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Speaker 1: was kind of hoping once they got up that they

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Speaker 1: would just win the game. I mean, I know it

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Speaker 1: would have gone against our six pack, but you know

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Speaker 1: I have their over win total. But the minute I

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Speaker 1: saw a bot Nicks dropping back and throwing that ball

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Speaker 1: to the corner, I was like, this is he's gonna

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Speaker 1: he's gonna throw a pick right here and not even

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Speaker 1: gonna get a field goal. And sure enough, like it's

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Speaker 1: just you can see these things coming the Jags. The

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Speaker 1: minute they they fumbled, I'm like, this is this is

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Speaker 1: a explosive to Tyreek or or Wado, like it's it's

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Speaker 1: just you can just kind of see these things coming.

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Speaker 1: The Titans, I mean that was that was just more

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Speaker 1: of a slow undoing. But anyway, Uh, primetime unders, we

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Speaker 1: always talk about that one fifty six, one oh six

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Speaker 1: and three sixty percent since twenty nineteen. Uh and then

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Speaker 1: totally maybe.

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Speaker 2: This is the comeback four and oh primetimeovers.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I know so far, that's zactly. I mean that

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Speaker 1: just makes me like the under even better because, you know,

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Speaker 1: OpEd over of the year. I sometimes I feel like

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Speaker 1: the books actually like when people hit a few overs

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Speaker 1: favor you know, a bunch of favorites cover because it

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Speaker 1: kind of sets the tone for the rest of the year,

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Speaker 1: and more underdogs and under tend to cover by the

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Speaker 1: time of the year's over. But totals above forty nine

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Speaker 1: primetime or not over the past three seasons or two

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Speaker 1: seasons and change, I should say, forty and sixteen to

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Speaker 1: the under over the past three seasons, seventy seven and

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Speaker 1: forty eight to the under, so sixty two percent. After

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Speaker 1: we saw Miami, they still got talent, but Hn and

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Speaker 1: Moster banged up a little bit. Both were kind of

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Speaker 1: in and out of the game with injuries. It's a

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Speaker 1: short week. You know it's gonna be hot, it's gonna

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Speaker 1: be humid. The Bills score looked a little bit inflated

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Speaker 1: because a kick returned for a touchdown by the Arizona Cardinals.

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen and that offense are still gonna be run heavy.

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Speaker 1: It looks like, you know, I think he only attempted

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Speaker 1: twenty three passes against the horrible Cardinal pass defense. He

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Speaker 1: did completely eighteen to them. I do think Miami's pass

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Speaker 1: defense is better than that, and I actually liked what

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Speaker 1: I saw, you know, from Miami's defense. I know Jacksonville

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Speaker 1: did have some some meltdowns and so they could have,

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Speaker 1: you know, giving up twenty four instead of seventeen. But

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Speaker 1: you know, the Miami kicker looked a little shaky. He

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Speaker 1: had one complete just yips kind of with He still

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Speaker 1: won the game, but a lot of things and then

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Speaker 1: we know the Buffalo kicker from the playoffs last year

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Speaker 1: shaky as well. So a lot of things I think

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Speaker 1: kind of point to the to the understill. But it's

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Speaker 1: down a forty nine. I think that's about right, So

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Speaker 1: no real play for me at this number. But I

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Speaker 1: did play fifty one, and if it's if it's anything

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Speaker 1: over forty nine, forty nine and a half are up.

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Speaker 1: I still go that way, but I think fifty one

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Speaker 1: was the number to get. What do you think about

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Speaker 1: this one?

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Speaker 2: Well, one, No one cares about the number that you

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Speaker 2: got that is no longer available. I'm just messing with you.

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Speaker 2: I like the offense here. I don't love there's an

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Speaker 2: football probably on small want to get went away for

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Speaker 2: the injury report. Most a got ruled out. Each was

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Speaker 2: practicing today. We'll see if he goes. They still have

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Speaker 2: capable backs. If he can. You got right Wilson there, Eh,

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Speaker 2: Chang will be is important. I think this game for

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Speaker 2: his explosive run ability. The Bills run defense looked pretty

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Speaker 2: weak last week against the Cardinals, and this Bill's defense,

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Speaker 2: I just don't know how they're gonna slow down the Dolphins.

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Speaker 2: I think this Bill's defense can take a big step

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Speaker 2: back this year. And now you already lost Matt Mallana,

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Speaker 2: you lost both your safeties, and now you lost one

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Speaker 2: of the best nickels in all of football, and Tarron Johnson,

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Speaker 2: who will be out for a bit. That's a huge

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Speaker 2: loss in so now all these guys like Milano, So

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Speaker 2: instead you have like Dorian Williams in there not good

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Speaker 2: and in the past the Bills run more of a

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Speaker 2: zone heavy defense, and by the way, Waddle and Hill

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Speaker 2: against zone defenses probably one and two in the NFL

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Speaker 2: at the wide receiver position. I mean, just how much

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Speaker 2: can Russo do? I think the corners played well. I mean,

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Speaker 2: Bedford and Douglas are great, but they're gonna just eat

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Speaker 2: over the middle of the field where the Bills are

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Speaker 2: so weak now at linebackers, safety and nickel. So I

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Speaker 2: think there's gonna be explosive runs. Yeah, the Dolphins a

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Speaker 2: gonna be able to move the ball much easier than

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Speaker 2: the Bills. Josh Allen was tremendous last week. He's gonna

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Speaker 2: put up a hell of a fight here. The humidity

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Speaker 2: I think does favor the Dolphins a bit early in

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Speaker 2: the season on a short week especially, But what the

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Speaker 2: Bills have to do is they you got to get

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Speaker 2: pressure quick on two it here you know Russo and Epodesa.

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Speaker 2: But the depth isn't great there, which is concerning in

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Speaker 2: a short week in humidity. So yeah, I think that

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Speaker 2: the Dolphins are the play here, but nothing big. It's two.

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Speaker 2: I mean two is nine and one against the spread

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Speaker 2: against the Patriots and Jets two four and one against

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Speaker 2: spread against the Bills. I think the Bills have won

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Speaker 2: eleven of twelve in this matchup. All the can to

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Speaker 2: beat a good team does concern me a bit, But

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Speaker 2: I like the offensive matchup here for the Dolphins against

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Speaker 2: the Bills defense that's going to take a significant step back.

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Speaker 2: So I like Miami small.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I think Buffalo will just try to run the

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Speaker 1: ball a ton in this one too, Like that's what

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Speaker 1: you know Brady's been doing. I guess it kind of

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Speaker 1: limits to Josh Allen mistakes too, and just highlights his

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Speaker 1: his you know, his best qualities. Lean under anything over

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Speaker 1: forty nine, You like the Dolphins. What up to two

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Speaker 1: and a half I'm guessing, or yeah, just.

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Speaker 2: Anything under three. I might play some money on line,

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Speaker 2: but nothing big. Should be a good game.

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Speaker 1: All right. We'll jump into the Sunday six pack before

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Speaker 1: we do, Just a reminder, our friends over at the

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Speaker 1: Favorites podcast have brought back their free one hundred thousand

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Speaker 1: dollars NFL Pick Them contest. It's totally free to sign

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Speaker 1: up at Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. Just five picks

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Speaker 1: against the spread. Every week, over one hundred thousand dollars

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Speaker 1: up for grabs, including a forty thousand dollars first place prize.

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Speaker 1: Your lower score gets dropped after week five, so if

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Speaker 1: you haven't signed up yet, you still got time. Just

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Speaker 1: visit favorites that Action network dot com. All right, now,

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Speaker 1: it's time stuck you. Let's build our NFL Week two

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Speaker 1: Sunday six pack. We're tied at two.

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Speaker 2: Thursday for Action. Let's crack open the Sunday six.

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Speaker 1: Pack first this week for the first pick of the

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Speaker 1: week two Sunday six pack in the first overall, the

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Speaker 1: Cincinnati Bengals plus six at the Kansas City Chiefs. Great work,

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Speaker 1: Bengals for ruining mind everyone else's most everyone else's survivor

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Speaker 1: pools in week one. But you know, week two tends

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Speaker 1: to be a dog week. It tends to be a

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Speaker 1: week of back of teams that didn't look very good

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Speaker 1: in week number one. There's countless trends kind of supporting

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Speaker 1: week two underdog, especially shorter underdogs in this kind of spot.

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Speaker 1: For one week two underdogs plus six or less off

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Speaker 1: of week one loss seventy to thirty seven and three

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Speaker 1: sixty five percent against the spread since two thousand and five.

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Speaker 1: You know, Joe Burrow will be better in this one.

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Speaker 1: He tends to play. He tends to you know, you

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Speaker 1: tend to get the Bengals' best effort when they go

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Speaker 1: against the Kansas City Chiefs. That's really been the case,

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Speaker 1: you know, since this Burrow Mahomes dual started kicking off.

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Speaker 1: You go back, all four games that they've matched up

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Speaker 1: have been decided by three points. The Chiefs have one one,

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Speaker 1: the Bengals have won three. The Chiefs won the last

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Speaker 1: one back in that ASC championship. So this is a

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Speaker 1: Bengals revenge spot from a couple of years ago. But

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Speaker 1: Burrow is three and one straight up and against the

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Speaker 1: spread against the Chiefs, including the postseason. He's also fifteen

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Speaker 1: and three against the spread as a dog plus three

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Speaker 1: or more and ten and three seventy seven percent against

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Speaker 1: the spread on the road. Off a loss, I thought

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Speaker 1: Cincinnati they came out slow, like they seem to always do.

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Speaker 1: The rust was definitely palpable, but the score was still

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Speaker 1: a little bit misleading. I mean, Tanner Hudson just talk

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Speaker 1: about et Tanner Hudson fumbled the ball going into the

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Speaker 1: end zone as well. There are just numerous missed opportunities.

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Speaker 1: There's a pick in the end zone that they should

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Speaker 1: have came down with a sicky touchdown that was wiped

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Speaker 1: off the board by a hair. So I think the

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Speaker 1: Bengals got a little bit unlucky in this spot. And

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Speaker 1: usually we talk about, you know, Andy Reid extra time

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Speaker 1: to prepare, it's kind of scary, but he's just eleven

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Speaker 1: and fourteen and forty four percent against the spread with

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs with extra time to prepare. So I think

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Speaker 1: you got a better effort from the Bengals. I still

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Speaker 1: think this is a very very good team, even without

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Speaker 1: t Higgins, you know, Chasing Chase and Joseavash and know

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Speaker 1: all those guys now that now they're lining up in

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Speaker 1: the spots, you know that they've they're kind of they

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Speaker 1: were in last week. So another week of practice I

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Speaker 1: think will do well. Because Burrow just kind of lost

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Speaker 1: did his pocket presences wasn't there in week one, So

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Speaker 1: I think the extra week will help everybody. I think

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Speaker 1: you get the best effort. I think you get a

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Speaker 1: more desperate Bengals team that does want to go down

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Speaker 1: O two and that you know, the Chiefs tend to

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Speaker 1: bring out the best in Cincinnati. So give me the

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Speaker 1: Bengals plus six at casey, I make this closer to

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Speaker 1: four four and a half ish Chiefs is still the

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Speaker 1: better team, but I still have the Bengals rated pretty high.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm a bit worried about this one. You know,

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Speaker 2: the Week two is a dog week. I mean, it's

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Speaker 2: one of my favorite weeks every year. It's just it's

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Speaker 2: overreaction week. It's like we don't have a ton of

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Speaker 2: data yet to go off of a sample size of one.

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Speaker 2: So you're still learning a lot about these teams, know

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Speaker 2: schematic tendencies. You can't really base a lot off one game.

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Speaker 2: There are exceptions, like the Jags talk about the Ausins.

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Speaker 2: You think they're gonna go much more man heavy. That

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Speaker 2: it was seventy three percent man coverage, So things like that.

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Speaker 2: You can get some tells a seventy three percent and

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Speaker 2: certain number in week one, but you know what is

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Speaker 2: and go back to the dog poinsin since two thousand

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Speaker 2: and three, underdogs that lost Week one fifty seven percent

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Speaker 2: against the spread in Week two. You know, Week two

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Speaker 2: dogs in general about fifty five percent historically against the number.

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Speaker 2: And then, for what it's worth, home dogs fifty eight

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Speaker 2: percent sixty percent off of a loss. So this is

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Speaker 2: a week where it makes sense why underdogs have fared better.

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Speaker 2: That's why I like to use trends when they're actually intuitive.

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Speaker 2: You know, teams that people overreact to, or you know

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Speaker 2: in week one, based on maybe outlier performances, you might

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Speaker 2: get some value on the other dogs in week two.

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Speaker 2: So I would look this way with the Bengals. But

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Speaker 2: we've seen the Bengals start slow in the last couple

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Speaker 2: of seasons with Barrow, and like sometimes it doesn't click

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Speaker 2: until week three, four or five. When does that happen?

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Speaker 2: I think the not having t Higgins, I assume even

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Speaker 2: practice today is big in this. I mean he just

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Speaker 2: adds such another element to this offense where you just

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Speaker 2: can't focus all of your attention on Chase. And I'm

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Speaker 2: worried about the Bengals defense, like even just against the

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Speaker 2: their cornerback group. I mean, the Chiefs should be able

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Speaker 2: to run. I mean all the Hatriots did was just

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Speaker 2: line up and run Stevenson right at the Bengals DJ

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Speaker 2: readers no longer there, and their run defense has been

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Speaker 2: really bad. And then Burrow's wrists, like what's going on? There,

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Speaker 2: I'm not quite sure. So I like the spot for

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Speaker 2: the Bengals and I expect them to play up here

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Speaker 2: and Aroumo usually has a pretty good game plan for Mahomes.

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Speaker 2: It makes some pretty good adjustments. But it might be

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Speaker 2: a game where maybe I just I have some money

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Speaker 2: line for the upside because it could also go sideways

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Speaker 2: that might also look in game. But definitely have my

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Speaker 2: concerns for the Bengals. Here for my first pick of

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Speaker 2: the week two Sunday six back in the second overall,

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Speaker 2: I'm going with the Green Bay Packers plus three at

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Speaker 2: home against the Indianapolis Colts. Last week I started off

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Speaker 2: with Bryce Young. Let's start things off this week with

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Speaker 2: Malik Willis, so right off the bat, this is an

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Speaker 2: outrageous adjustment from Look, Jordan Love is really good. Is

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Speaker 2: he elite of elite? We don't know that yet, right

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Speaker 2: like the really good second half of the year last year,

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Speaker 2: struggled early on. I think he's really good, his top

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Speaker 2: ten quarterback, but he's not elite of an elite. I

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Speaker 2: made this line, and I'm low on the Colts before

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Speaker 2: you know. With these teams at full strength, Packers a

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Speaker 2: little extra rest coming off the international game. I made

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Speaker 2: this line closer to six. I think a look aadline

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Speaker 2: was Packers minus four and a half. So let's just

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Speaker 2: say it was five. Split the difference now the I

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Speaker 2: mean the Packers one point. I played him a plus

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Speaker 2: three and a half, and I would I would look

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Speaker 2: for if you can get a plus twin that juice,

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Speaker 2: I prefer that over three. You're talking an adjustment of

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Speaker 2: eight eight and a half points through the three and

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Speaker 2: maybe through the other three through four. I mean, that

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Speaker 2: is outrageous. That is like, I mean, the elite of

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Speaker 2: elite and the worst of worst of all quarterbacks back

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Speaker 2: up who comes to mind, Andrew Luck, Scott Tolzine, Aaron

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Speaker 2: Rodgers to Tim Boyle, those are like you know, Mahomes,

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Speaker 2: those are like in some of his backups in the

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Speaker 2: past seven to eight points this, you know, and Jordan

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Speaker 2: Loves not yet there in that stratosphere. And Malik Willis

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Speaker 2: at least has some experience. It's not like Tim Boyle,

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Speaker 2: who's like a Yukon He threw like thirteen picks in

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Speaker 2: one touchdown at Yukon. You know, he's at least played

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Speaker 2: some five five and a half points. That's the adjustment

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Speaker 2: for me, So just get this closer to like a pick.

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Speaker 2: So this is outrageous. Also, teams that whenever there's a

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Speaker 2: team playing it's backup quarterback. Over the past three years,

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Speaker 2: it's been super successful to back those seams. I think

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Speaker 2: the market overreacts backups in their first start as an

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Speaker 2: underdog thirty seven thirty and two against the spread over

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Speaker 2: the past three seasons fifty five percent. I think everyone

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Speaker 2: else also steps up. You see this in basketball too.

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Speaker 2: It's like the star factor. Everyone else knows that they

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Speaker 2: need to step up. And you also have to remember

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Speaker 2: that the Colts were on the field a ton last week.

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Speaker 2: On defense, they under twenty five minutes of total time

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Speaker 2: of possession. Over the last decade, teams to hold teams

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Speaker 2: to under twenty five minutes of possession in Week one.

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Speaker 2: They are just six and twenty five against the spread

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Speaker 2: in their Week two game. So fatigue early on in

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Speaker 2: the season not necessarily fully in game shape. But this

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Speaker 2: is just too much of an overreaction. I expect the

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Speaker 2: halfley d to be better. I know Richardson made some

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Speaker 2: great throws. He's going to do that. He's gonna have

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Speaker 2: some highlight runs. But what if you finished nine of nineteen,

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Speaker 2: he's still inaccurate overall. And this if you want to

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Speaker 2: put Milik Willis, who's been really bad, but can we

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Speaker 2: say he's I mean, the sample size isn't huge. He's

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Speaker 2: at least played. He's prepped for this Colts defense twice

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Speaker 2: a year every year when he was with the Titans,

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Speaker 2: and the prep ain't hard. It's Gus Bradley, what do

359
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Speaker 2: you do again? Last week? Didn't blitz cover three? Some

360
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Speaker 2: cover two eighty percent of the time. That's it. And

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Speaker 2: by the way, Colts now down their top corner Juju Brentz,

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Speaker 2: he's out with an injury. This secondary's back. So you

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Speaker 2: want to talk about the best possible situation to be in,

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Speaker 2: get a little extra time to prepare. You have really

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Speaker 2: good receivers, you have a good offensive line, a really

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Speaker 2: good head coach, and you're going up against the defense

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Speaker 2: you're familiar with, a defense that's not complex, a defense

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Speaker 2: that has a horrible secondary. And I just think this

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Speaker 2: is a good spot to back the Packers after their

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Speaker 2: own one start, Titans coming off excuse me, the Colts

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Speaker 2: coming off that heartbreaking loss against the Texans. This is

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Speaker 2: a tough spot. Here to go on the road, not

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Speaker 2: buying the Colts defense, not fully buying Richardson. I'm okay

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Speaker 2: with the backup here, especially at a field goal. I

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Speaker 2: think this game, you know, based on my number, should

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Speaker 2: be maybe Packers plus one, but I think probably right

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Speaker 2: around a pick. So gimme Green Bay and Malik Willis

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Speaker 2: hopefully doesn't have to throw a Hail Mary at the

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Speaker 2: end of the game.

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Speaker 1: I give you props man. You do this every year.

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Speaker 1: I feel like this is one of my favorite episodes

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Speaker 1: the week two because you usually come with like the

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Speaker 1: most disgusting picks. Some of them I can't even get there.

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Speaker 1: But you have a pretty pristine record I believe on

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Speaker 1: these picks, So I honestly the thing that stops me

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Speaker 1: is it's kind of what you allude to earlier. I

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Speaker 1: don't really know exactly how to judge the league Willis

388
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Speaker 1: because I'm a little higher on Jordan Love than the consensus,

389
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Speaker 1: and I think I'm also a little more down on Willis.

390
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Speaker 1: But I think about Willis is he's been abysmal, just horrible,

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Speaker 1: but he was with the Titans and and he's actually

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Speaker 1: covered Uh you know, there was that Chiefs game. I

393
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Speaker 1: think you had him. Uh you were back at the

394
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Speaker 1: Titans in that one, and somehow they stayed in it.

395
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Speaker 1: But at the same time, they have Mason Rudolph and

396
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Speaker 1: Will Levis on the depth chart and they were willing

397
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Speaker 1: to trade him. Now he's in a Yes, he's prepared

398
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Speaker 1: for this team, but he's only been on the Packers

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Speaker 1: for a week. Uh So, Like, I just really don't

400
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Speaker 1: know how to properly rate League Willis. And that's the

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Speaker 1: only thing that But even if you assume.

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Speaker 2: The worst case scenario, he can't be all right.

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Speaker 1: Let's say Jordan Mother is like a five. Really, Milk

404
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Speaker 1: Willis could be like a negative two. You could get

405
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Speaker 1: to seven, I think.

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Speaker 2: And I made this ide.

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Speaker 1: You're on the right, Tad. I'm with you on the side.

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Speaker 2: He could be awful this game. It's spread of three.

409
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Speaker 2: But I gotta take this. I gotta take this.

410
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Speaker 1: No I did. Coach could have kicker issues. You don't

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Speaker 1: even mention that even if.

412
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Speaker 2: There's one defense you had to pick in the NFL face

413
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Speaker 2: if you're Malik Wills wouldn't be the cult.

414
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Speaker 1: It's always a coach for me. The same way I

415
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Speaker 1: talked about the Falcons to me as the offense I

416
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Speaker 1: want to face because you're getting one hundred percent one

417
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Speaker 1: person now and cousins in the shotgun like, it's just

418
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Speaker 1: easy to prepare for. And yeah, the coach defense like

419
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Speaker 1: even though they have talent, Yeah, I would pick the

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Speaker 1: coach all day, all right. For my second pick and

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Speaker 1: the third overall of the Week two Sunday six pack,

422
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Speaker 1: I'm going with the Cleveland Browns plus three and a

423
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Speaker 1: half at the Jacksonville Jaguars probably still find a three

424
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Speaker 1: and a half. If not, I still like the three,

425
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Speaker 1: but I'm fine with the juice step three and a

426
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Speaker 1: half to minus one twenty as well. This is another

427
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Speaker 1: example of a team that looked straight up horrible in

428
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Speaker 1: Week one. The Cleveland Browns and Sean Watson was terrible again.

429
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Speaker 1: But I think that this Jaguars team, just like I

430
00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:51,280
Speaker 1: was backing them as a dog with the hook against Miami,

431
00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:55,000
Speaker 1: now it's time to back Cleveland with the hook or

432
00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:58,520
Speaker 1: just at the plus three against Jacksonville. Because this AFC

433
00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:02,720
Speaker 1: it's a gauntlet. There's a lot of teams that are

434
00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:06,080
Speaker 1: probably borderline playoff caliber. It's early in the year. We

435
00:23:06,080 --> 00:23:07,920
Speaker 1: don't know exactly how these things are going to play. Out,

436
00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:10,439
Speaker 1: But we do know Cleveland still has a defense, and

437
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:14,200
Speaker 1: we do know that, you know, despite Deshaun Watson really

438
00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:17,320
Speaker 1: being a shell of himself for the entirety of his

439
00:23:17,440 --> 00:23:22,560
Speaker 1: tenure as a Cleveland Brown, they've won eight of his

440
00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:26,639
Speaker 1: thirteen starts. He's a dog now. They're also seven and

441
00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:29,359
Speaker 1: six against the spread in his starts, and part of

442
00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:31,920
Speaker 1: that is the defense, and part of that is he

443
00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:35,520
Speaker 1: faced the Cowboys in Week one. The Cowboys. You know,

444
00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:37,800
Speaker 1: you mentioned it on one of our preseason pods. The

445
00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:41,000
Speaker 1: hate was kind of going too far. Mike Zimmer an

446
00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:43,520
Speaker 1: excellent defensive mind now that he doesn't have to worry

447
00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:46,479
Speaker 1: about head coaching, which I just don't think was fully

448
00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:50,600
Speaker 1: suited for him, especially at the end there. It's just

449
00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:53,840
Speaker 1: kind of like the dan Quinn higher where where it

450
00:23:53,840 --> 00:23:55,480
Speaker 1: looks like it's gonna work out really well for the Cowboys.

451
00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:59,919
Speaker 1: They have a lot of talent defensively. Jaguars met You know,

452
00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:03,040
Speaker 1: I thought they did some good things early against Miami.

453
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:05,520
Speaker 1: I thought Miami kind of shot itself in the foot

454
00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:11,000
Speaker 1: at times against the Jags, but uh, you know right,

455
00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:12,880
Speaker 1: they still finished the four yards offense. They still gave

456
00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:18,200
Speaker 1: up explosives. Uh, there secondary graded out very poorly, and

457
00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:23,160
Speaker 1: I think that's a concern because Tyson Campbell, the best cornerback,

458
00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:26,280
Speaker 1: is going to miss time. The rest of that secondary

459
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:28,880
Speaker 1: is pretty mediocre to bad.

460
00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:31,600
Speaker 2: And they have no death we talked about that they

461
00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:34,720
Speaker 2: had no doubt, couldn't afford none of those things.

462
00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:36,359
Speaker 1: It seems like it's the case every year with the

463
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:39,720
Speaker 1: Jaguars defense because they're like, I know, Trevor Lawrence hasn't

464
00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:42,400
Speaker 1: fully taken the next step, but you know, Thomas the rookie,

465
00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:46,680
Speaker 1: looked good, so the offense should be there, but the

466
00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:49,360
Speaker 1: defense just always seems to be, you know, a few

467
00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 1: pieces away depth wise, especially. But the the reason I

468
00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:57,080
Speaker 1: like this matches for Cleveland is David Njoku got hurt.

469
00:24:57,320 --> 00:25:00,640
Speaker 1: But David Njoku was one of only two tight ends

470
00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:04,040
Speaker 1: active for Cleveland. And I'm very aware of this stuff

471
00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 1: because you know, I do the fantasy projections every week,

472
00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:11,600
Speaker 1: which is you know, kind of includes essentially projecting a

473
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:14,120
Speaker 1: team's snap rates for the skill positions. You know, how

474
00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:16,080
Speaker 1: many how you know how many times are they going

475
00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:17,760
Speaker 1: to be in like, you know, two tight end sets

476
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 1: versus more receivers and whatnot. And Cleveland one of the

477
00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:24,000
Speaker 1: things they want to do with Watson is open up

478
00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:27,560
Speaker 1: the offense and uh, you know a lot of three wide,

479
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:32,840
Speaker 1: four wide things like that, And so you're gonna get receivers,

480
00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:36,880
Speaker 1: and especially with with with n Joku banged up, you're

481
00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:39,520
Speaker 1: gonna get a ton of receivers. You have you have

482
00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:42,040
Speaker 1: Elijah More, you have Jerry Judy, you have Amari Cooper

483
00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:44,280
Speaker 1: who only caught two of ten targets. I think that

484
00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:47,880
Speaker 1: was very fluky, and I think that will reverse, especially

485
00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:51,920
Speaker 1: with the number one corner for Jacksonville out. So you know, Cleveland,

486
00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 1: you kind of look at all Nick Chubb is out

487
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:57,399
Speaker 1: and Watson was playing terrible. But if you kind of

488
00:25:57,400 --> 00:25:59,359
Speaker 1: put it in this perspective, they're eight and five in

489
00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:03,560
Speaker 1: his starts, They're an underdog. They they're what they've been

490
00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:05,240
Speaker 1: wanting to do, and what they are going to do

491
00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:07,959
Speaker 1: is line up with at least three wide and almost

492
00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:10,600
Speaker 1: every play they you know, even their fourth receivers not

493
00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:12,760
Speaker 1: you know, he played a lot last year Killman. They

494
00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:16,399
Speaker 1: got Thrash still waiting on the bench. So you know,

495
00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:19,000
Speaker 1: they have some promise at wide receiver even beyond the

496
00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:23,680
Speaker 1: top three, which I think is is very good. I'm

497
00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:25,120
Speaker 1: not counting him, I think he would be I guess

498
00:26:25,119 --> 00:26:27,280
Speaker 1: he would be a Jay when shout to Tom Brady

499
00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:30,080
Speaker 1: for shouting at his boy Jayalen Darden as former teammate.

500
00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:31,359
Speaker 1: That was, by the way, what did you take a

501
00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:34,320
Speaker 1: Bradys in his first game? Yeah?

502
00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:39,240
Speaker 2: Right, so nervous him give him some It was his

503
00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:39,720
Speaker 2: first time.

504
00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:42,639
Speaker 1: So yeah. Yeah. But but I think Greg Olsen is

505
00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:44,800
Speaker 1: actually a good model for Tom to study. That's how

506
00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:47,640
Speaker 1: Tom would want to sound. But going back to the Browns, Yeah,

507
00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:50,760
Speaker 1: I like the offensive matchup you still got. I think

508
00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:52,879
Speaker 1: in a week defense, I just think this is a

509
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:56,159
Speaker 1: classic Week one overreaction where these two teams you probably

510
00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:58,879
Speaker 1: would have the Browns power rated at last iided a

511
00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:02,200
Speaker 1: little bit higher than the Jaguars entering the year. I

512
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:04,720
Speaker 1: don't think Week one changed very much. Even with Watson

513
00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:07,680
Speaker 1: playing poorly. The numbers back up that this Brown's team

514
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:10,440
Speaker 1: could be competitive, and the Jaguars offense still didn't blow

515
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:14,359
Speaker 1: me away offensive line that's still so yeah. Give me

516
00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:17,719
Speaker 1: the Cleveland Browns here wouldn't be surprised if they if

517
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:19,160
Speaker 1: they outright win this one.

518
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:21,359
Speaker 2: Line should be a tap under a field goal. They

519
00:27:21,359 --> 00:27:23,520
Speaker 2: would have been one of my picks if you didn't

520
00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:27,520
Speaker 2: bet them Jags. Yeah, without Campbell, this is going to

521
00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:29,960
Speaker 2: be a heavy, heavy man defense. Like I said, seventy

522
00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:33,439
Speaker 2: three percent week one, So it's gonna be up to Watson.

523
00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:36,320
Speaker 2: He was oh of ten on throws fifteen plus air

524
00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:39,760
Speaker 2: yards in Week one. I think there was Murray one

525
00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:43,199
Speaker 2: Cooper drop that was a good throw. And look, Watson,

526
00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:45,439
Speaker 2: he's not good anymore. He just doesn't have it. But

527
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:47,439
Speaker 2: he's going to be better than he was last week.

528
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:50,200
Speaker 2: You're not going up as against as good of a defense.

529
00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:52,640
Speaker 2: And he didn't play it for so long, he didn't

530
00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:54,760
Speaker 2: even play in the preseason. He hadn't played in like

531
00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:57,240
Speaker 2: a year. There was rust. He started to look a

532
00:27:57,280 --> 00:27:58,800
Speaker 2: little better as the game went on, and you see

533
00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:02,080
Speaker 2: there's any quarterback that doesn't the preseason, there's usually a

534
00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:04,200
Speaker 2: dip in Week one, so you can expect a little

535
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:07,720
Speaker 2: bit of maybe the offensive line situation gets a bit better.

536
00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:10,760
Speaker 1: Let me give one trend, just because we talk about

537
00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:13,080
Speaker 1: Week two all the time. Road teams in Week two

538
00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:17,160
Speaker 1: off double digit losses, So big bounce back spot thirty

539
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:20,000
Speaker 1: eight twenty three sixty against the spread since five.

540
00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:24,199
Speaker 2: Yeah, for my second pick and the fourth overall of

541
00:28:24,240 --> 00:28:26,879
Speaker 2: the Week two Sunday six pack, I'm going with the

542
00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:30,520
Speaker 2: Tennessee Titans plus three and a half against the New

543
00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:33,879
Speaker 2: York Jets Malik Willis And now we're going back to

544
00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:38,000
Speaker 2: last week's nemesis, will Levis. But this is mainly a

545
00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:43,080
Speaker 2: fade of the Jets. I just mentioned the Colts stat Yeah,

546
00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:46,440
Speaker 2: they had the ball under twenty five minutes. Teams that

547
00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:49,680
Speaker 2: had fewer than twenty five minutes time possession in Week one.

548
00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:52,800
Speaker 2: I mean it's stunning. Eight and twenty three straight up,

549
00:28:53,360 --> 00:28:57,480
Speaker 2: six and twenty five against the spread, nineteen percent against

550
00:28:57,520 --> 00:29:02,680
Speaker 2: the spread in Week two, fatigue, not really in game shape.

551
00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:05,160
Speaker 2: And by the way, that was a Monday night game

552
00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:08,240
Speaker 2: and on the West Coast, and they're hitting the road

553
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:11,280
Speaker 2: for a second straight game. Brutal spot, Just a brutal

554
00:29:11,320 --> 00:29:13,920
Speaker 2: spot overall for what it's where team's coming off Monday

555
00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:15,480
Speaker 2: night football on the road and having to play on

556
00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:19,400
Speaker 2: the road again. Twelve and twenty one straight up, thirteen

557
00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:24,840
Speaker 2: and twenty against the spread over the past decade. So look,

558
00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:26,640
Speaker 2: I think the Jets def that's gonna be worn down here.

559
00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:28,200
Speaker 2: I mean they were on the field a ton, they

560
00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:29,840
Speaker 2: got beat, They had some injuries at it, they're all

561
00:29:29,840 --> 00:29:33,480
Speaker 2: going to play in the secondary. The defensive line that

562
00:29:34,000 --> 00:29:36,720
Speaker 2: was it's just not the same, you know, without Huff,

563
00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:40,160
Speaker 2: without Franklin Myers, Reddick holding out, they got bullied. They

564
00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:43,120
Speaker 2: got pushed around the entire game by the forty nine

565
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:45,760
Speaker 2: ers and it was noticeable. And they weren't able to

566
00:29:45,760 --> 00:29:50,640
Speaker 2: get as much quick pressure on Purty as they were

567
00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:53,680
Speaker 2: last year almost every game, which helps out the secondary.

568
00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:55,360
Speaker 2: And by the way, so us Corner is one of

569
00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:58,200
Speaker 2: the best corners in the NFL. Apparently they were just

570
00:29:58,200 --> 00:30:00,520
Speaker 2: benching him for a little bit. The Jets pr teams

571
00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:01,760
Speaker 2: that he's fine, they just didn't want to have him

572
00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:04,080
Speaker 2: on the field. No idea what's going on there. But

573
00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:06,480
Speaker 2: Gardner I've always been fan of. I think he's the

574
00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:08,640
Speaker 2: best corner in the NFL. But the rest of the secondary,

575
00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:12,720
Speaker 2: I have questions about the safeties, maybe the other two corners,

576
00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:17,560
Speaker 2: like maybe the Jets defense regresses from last year. You know,

577
00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:20,280
Speaker 2: we see this with defenses in the NFL. So it'll

578
00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:21,680
Speaker 2: be funny at the end of the year if we say,

579
00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:24,320
Speaker 2: you know, Rogers is good, and we say, well, if

580
00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:27,120
Speaker 2: only Rogers had a defense, after we've been saying if

581
00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:28,640
Speaker 2: only the Jets had a quarterback the best years, that

582
00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:33,440
Speaker 2: would be very Jets. Rogers looked okay, but the offensive

583
00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 2: line still needs time to come together, I think, And

584
00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:39,600
Speaker 2: it's basically one guy. Just don't go off sides, by

585
00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:42,000
Speaker 2: the way, because then it's a free touchdown for Rogers.

586
00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:46,640
Speaker 2: But I mean, just focus on covering Garrett Wilson. I'm

587
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:49,720
Speaker 2: not too afraid of Alan Lazar despite his two touchdowns

588
00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:54,320
Speaker 2: last week. So it's like it's a very basic offense

589
00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:56,000
Speaker 2: right now. Mike Williams isn't going to give you much,

590
00:30:56,320 --> 00:30:57,880
Speaker 2: so I think they'll get better as the season is on.

591
00:30:57,960 --> 00:30:59,160
Speaker 2: But I like so I like what I saw often

592
00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:01,840
Speaker 2: the Titans defense week. I like their additions. They got

593
00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:04,720
Speaker 2: a good group of cornerbacks here, Sweat looked really good.

594
00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:07,280
Speaker 2: The rookie. I love the addition of Ernest Jones. That

595
00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:13,040
Speaker 2: linebacker room needed him. So yeah, I was impressed with

596
00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:15,680
Speaker 2: the Titans defense last week. They just they didn't allow

597
00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:21,760
Speaker 2: an offensive touchdown. They completely just shut down Caleb Williams.

598
00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:24,840
Speaker 2: So I think the offensive line will be better for

599
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:27,080
Speaker 2: the Titans, and that Jets defensive line just says it

600
00:31:27,120 --> 00:31:30,680
Speaker 2: is scary right now. Callahan will continue to have that

601
00:31:30,760 --> 00:31:35,080
Speaker 2: unit improve. So yeah, low total here home dog over three.

602
00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:37,280
Speaker 2: Good spot with the Jets coming off of road game

603
00:31:37,320 --> 00:31:38,880
Speaker 2: a Monday night football where their deam is on the

604
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:43,200
Speaker 2: field a ton, and I think it's going to take

605
00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:46,960
Speaker 2: time for Rogers and its offense to fully jel. So yeah,

606
00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:48,640
Speaker 2: give me the Titans here catching over a field goal

607
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:51,640
Speaker 2: home a seventeen to nothing lead last week. Teams that

608
00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:55,880
Speaker 2: blow leads in Week one, like double digit leads, have

609
00:31:56,000 --> 00:31:59,560
Speaker 2: bounced back well in Week two. I think since nineteen

610
00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:02,200
Speaker 2: ninety twenty nine and seventeen straight up. Teams that blow

611
00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:04,840
Speaker 2: double digit leading Week one twenty eight to seventeen and

612
00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:07,080
Speaker 2: one against the spread, I lean that way as well.

613
00:32:07,440 --> 00:32:10,520
Speaker 1: I thought the Jets just the defense didn't look right

614
00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:14,160
Speaker 1: and it came up scores on eight straight sessions.

615
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:16,719
Speaker 2: I think if the Titans won that game, which they

616
00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:19,000
Speaker 2: should have, and they would if he played that game

617
00:32:19,000 --> 00:32:21,040
Speaker 2: a million times, they win it all but one and

618
00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 2: that was the one, this line would be three.

619
00:32:25,080 --> 00:32:29,160
Speaker 1: All right. For my third pick, the fifth overall of

620
00:32:29,200 --> 00:32:33,320
Speaker 1: the week, number two Sunday six pack, I'm going with

621
00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:36,280
Speaker 1: the Rams plus one and a half at the Cardinals.

622
00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:40,600
Speaker 1: The Rams are injured and the line flip flopped. I

623
00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:43,400
Speaker 1: think they were favorites to open around the same number

624
00:32:43,560 --> 00:32:46,920
Speaker 1: we got where Dako was going on ir Avila. The

625
00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:50,840
Speaker 1: offensive lineman is hurt as well, and I think it

626
00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:53,760
Speaker 1: was they watched another lineman in that game. So a

627
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:57,040
Speaker 1: bunch of injuries for the Rams. But I still think

628
00:32:57,040 --> 00:33:00,240
Speaker 1: the Rams are the better squad here. I don't think

629
00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:05,600
Speaker 1: think that this Cardinal team is as good as I

630
00:33:05,600 --> 00:33:07,360
Speaker 1: thought it was going to be because I still think

631
00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:10,520
Speaker 1: they have a lot of issues on defense, and now

632
00:33:10,560 --> 00:33:16,080
Speaker 1: an issue that I didn't quite foresee continuing is still

633
00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:20,720
Speaker 1: an issue, and that's the offense with Kyler Murray throwing

634
00:33:20,760 --> 00:33:23,719
Speaker 1: the ball down the football field. Now, you know in

635
00:33:23,760 --> 00:33:27,000
Speaker 1: the past with DeAndre Hopkins there it was better, but

636
00:33:27,560 --> 00:33:30,880
Speaker 1: Marvin Harrison, I know it's just one game. But rookie,

637
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:34,640
Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, maybe I was right.

638
00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:36,720
Speaker 2: Greg Dortch number one receiver?

639
00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:40,720
Speaker 1: Yeo, yeah, no Greg Dortsch was I mean, yeah, Greg

640
00:33:40,800 --> 00:33:43,640
Speaker 1: Dortch and Raray McLeod like, is their team stop receivers

641
00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:47,520
Speaker 1: in Week one? Great funny times, but no, Greg Dortch.

642
00:33:48,120 --> 00:33:50,720
Speaker 1: The one of the reasons I think that he was

643
00:33:50,760 --> 00:33:53,959
Speaker 1: being leaned upon is because Coliner has really been struggling

644
00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:56,600
Speaker 1: to get the ball down the football field. And this

645
00:33:56,640 --> 00:34:01,200
Speaker 1: has been an issue now for you know, yeah, multiple years.

646
00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:05,600
Speaker 1: And when I when i'm you know, doing my analysis,

647
00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:08,200
Speaker 1: I'm trying to be intuitive here, I'm saying, all right,

648
00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:11,959
Speaker 1: you know, Kyler, he lost DeAndre Hopkins. You know, even

649
00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:14,359
Speaker 1: that last year Hopkins was banged up, So we'll cut

650
00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:16,799
Speaker 1: them a little slack here. It's still you know, you're

651
00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:19,520
Speaker 1: you're taking a subset of his total passes, so you're

652
00:34:19,560 --> 00:34:21,960
Speaker 1: still talking about a small, smaller sample than you would

653
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:24,239
Speaker 1: if you're just kind of looking at his stats in totality.

654
00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:29,279
Speaker 1: But the week won one for seven on passes ten

655
00:34:29,360 --> 00:34:31,120
Speaker 1: or more yards downfield, So we're not even talking about

656
00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:33,800
Speaker 1: strict deep balls. We're talking about anything to the intermediate

657
00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:36,560
Speaker 1: area of the field, like essentially anytime you need a

658
00:34:36,600 --> 00:34:38,960
Speaker 1: first down, got to have it, you know, third and

659
00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:42,320
Speaker 1: long type of passes one of seven for five yards.

660
00:34:42,360 --> 00:34:45,759
Speaker 1: But you go back to twenty twenty three and okay,

661
00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:48,400
Speaker 1: he was coming off at acl but thirty five or

662
00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:53,560
Speaker 1: seventy nine forty four on those passes more interceptions than touchdowns.

663
00:34:53,719 --> 00:34:56,439
Speaker 1: Struggled the year before as well, and so he wasn't

664
00:34:56,480 --> 00:35:00,839
Speaker 1: really decent at this at you know, going downfield twenty one,

665
00:35:00,920 --> 00:35:05,120
Speaker 1: like you mentioned, and now compounding issues is that I

666
00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:09,000
Speaker 1: don't know if it's just a Kyler thing or if

667
00:35:09,040 --> 00:35:12,359
Speaker 1: Harrison was contributing to it because he didn't look as

668
00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:16,600
Speaker 1: good as I think we wanted him to. And you

669
00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:18,920
Speaker 1: never know with the NFL, because if a guy's on

670
00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:21,400
Speaker 1: the field, you just don't know what's affecting him. And

671
00:35:21,440 --> 00:35:24,000
Speaker 1: sometimes you don't find out that guy's played through injuries

672
00:35:24,160 --> 00:35:26,200
Speaker 1: until the year is over, So I don't know what

673
00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:28,440
Speaker 1: exactly is going on with him. But it's not like

674
00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:30,440
Speaker 1: he just dropped a ton of passes. And like I

675
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:33,120
Speaker 1: remember Jamar chasing camp one year, I think his first year,

676
00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:35,000
Speaker 1: the oh he' dropping a bunch of passes and then

677
00:35:35,040 --> 00:35:38,040
Speaker 1: he's fine. But with Harrison, it was concerned to me

678
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:42,359
Speaker 1: that he just wasn't getting open and Kyler just wasn't

679
00:35:42,400 --> 00:35:44,040
Speaker 1: looking at him. And I don't know if that's Kyle

680
00:35:44,080 --> 00:35:47,480
Speaker 1: because Kyleer has no confidence in going down the field anyway.

681
00:35:47,600 --> 00:35:49,600
Speaker 1: I don't know if it's the stature and the fact

682
00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:53,480
Speaker 1: that you know there's some you know, visibility issues with

683
00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:57,040
Speaker 1: a quarterback like that, or or accommodation of those things.

684
00:35:57,040 --> 00:36:00,640
Speaker 1: But whatever it is, I don't like it because you know, Detroit,

685
00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:03,560
Speaker 1: they really had a lot of success with Jamison Williams

686
00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:08,320
Speaker 1: at their downfield. Guy Amon Ra battled up. Fantasy owners

687
00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:12,479
Speaker 1: are like damn man. Almon Roth was thirteen yards. Sam

688
00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:16,280
Speaker 1: laporta number one tight end in Fantasy, did nothing. So

689
00:36:16,920 --> 00:36:20,880
Speaker 1: this Ram team, they always find a way to overperform

690
00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:23,680
Speaker 1: on defense. I thought Durrant looked really good. I'm not

691
00:36:23,760 --> 00:36:27,200
Speaker 1: just worried about the Rams defense against this Arizona offense.

692
00:36:27,440 --> 00:36:29,480
Speaker 1: The Cards are gonna run on them, but that's fine

693
00:36:29,520 --> 00:36:32,160
Speaker 1: because I think the Rams can not only run on

694
00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:34,560
Speaker 1: the Cardinals, but they could still throw on the Cardinals

695
00:36:34,840 --> 00:36:36,799
Speaker 1: Nico or not. You saw Talarer Johnson come in and

696
00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:40,040
Speaker 1: get five catches for seventy nine yards on seven targets.

697
00:36:40,160 --> 00:36:42,279
Speaker 1: Cooper Cup is back to Cooper Cup of both, you know,

698
00:36:42,360 --> 00:36:46,600
Speaker 1: fourteen catches on twenty one targets. This Cardino defense bottom

699
00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:49,400
Speaker 1: of the barrel last year, bottom of the barrel to

700
00:36:49,440 --> 00:36:52,920
Speaker 1: start this year. Let Josh Allen complete eighty percent of

701
00:36:52,920 --> 00:36:56,160
Speaker 1: his passes for ten yards in attempt. I think they

702
00:36:56,160 --> 00:36:59,520
Speaker 1: still get carved up. So I'm getting points throwing the

703
00:36:59,520 --> 00:37:04,080
Speaker 1: fact that Kyler Murray's historically struggled against the Rams. He's

704
00:37:04,160 --> 00:37:07,400
Speaker 1: historically struggled at home just five and eleven against the

705
00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:10,200
Speaker 1: spread as a home favorite. He struggled at home in

706
00:37:10,239 --> 00:37:13,280
Speaker 1: the division just four and ten twenty nine percent against

707
00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:16,920
Speaker 1: the spread in Division home games. Sean McVay tends to

708
00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:20,360
Speaker 1: get the Rams to play up in these spots twelve

709
00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:23,520
Speaker 1: and seven with two pushes sixty three percent against the

710
00:37:23,560 --> 00:37:27,560
Speaker 1: spread on the road coming off of loss, and overall

711
00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:30,360
Speaker 1: coming off of loss twenty four fifteen and three sixty

712
00:37:30,400 --> 00:37:36,440
Speaker 1: two percent against the spread. Give me the Los Angeles Rams.

713
00:37:36,800 --> 00:37:40,520
Speaker 2: McVeigh has owned the Cardinals. I think he's what thirteen

714
00:37:40,560 --> 00:37:44,240
Speaker 2: and two straight up, maybe twelve two and one against

715
00:37:44,239 --> 00:37:47,200
Speaker 2: the spread in other stretch. He's at the circle of

716
00:37:47,239 --> 00:37:49,120
Speaker 2: life in the NSC West. But I will say some

717
00:37:49,160 --> 00:37:51,200
Speaker 2: of those merry against the spreads ats at home. I

718
00:37:51,200 --> 00:37:53,040
Speaker 2: think a lot of that as still with Cliff Cliff's

719
00:37:53,080 --> 00:37:55,480
Speaker 2: no longer there, I can't get here at the Rams

720
00:37:55,920 --> 00:37:59,000
Speaker 2: Lean Cardinals. Here is a tough spot for the Rams

721
00:37:59,040 --> 00:38:01,879
Speaker 2: like that was. That was a Week one super Bowl

722
00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:06,080
Speaker 2: for them, playoff revenge. You know, Stafford back in Detroit,

723
00:38:06,800 --> 00:38:11,160
Speaker 2: you theyd were probably game planning to oblivion for that game,

724
00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:13,400
Speaker 2: and then to lose an overtime on the road and

725
00:38:13,560 --> 00:38:15,040
Speaker 2: having all those injuries and then have been to go

726
00:38:15,120 --> 00:38:18,719
Speaker 2: on the road again. Yes, this is a tough spot. Yeah,

727
00:38:18,719 --> 00:38:19,960
Speaker 2: I can't get here on the spot.

728
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:23,760
Speaker 1: Football season is here and if you've thought about becoming

729
00:38:23,760 --> 00:38:27,319
Speaker 1: an Action Pro subscriber, now is the best time to

730
00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:30,000
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731
00:38:30,040 --> 00:38:33,640
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732
00:38:33,680 --> 00:38:37,440
Speaker 1: which includes player prop fix and projection edges from Sean

733
00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:41,120
Speaker 1: Kerner and his Action analytics team Colin Wilson and Stucky

734
00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:45,280
Speaker 1: for college football and now Sean Kerner's NFL. Anytime touchdown

735
00:38:45,400 --> 00:38:49,640
Speaker 1: and first touchdown projections are part of Action Pro, so

736
00:38:49,719 --> 00:38:53,680
Speaker 1: you can find the biggest edges across the entire NFL.

737
00:38:53,880 --> 00:38:57,600
Speaker 1: Sleep and Actions podcast listeners can use code Pod twenty

738
00:38:57,840 --> 00:39:01,640
Speaker 1: That's Pod two zero to get an extra twenty dollars

739
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740
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Speaker 1: of Action Pro, just visit actionnetwork dot com, slash pricing

741
00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:12,840
Speaker 1: or follow the link in the episode's description.

742
00:39:14,680 --> 00:39:19,120
Speaker 2: For my third pick and the sixth overall of the

743
00:39:19,600 --> 00:39:22,640
Speaker 2: Sunday six Pack, I will say in full disclosure, was

744
00:39:22,640 --> 00:39:24,720
Speaker 2: originally gonna go to the the Broncos, who I bet,

745
00:39:25,960 --> 00:39:29,239
Speaker 2: But let's move to two and a half. So I'm

746
00:39:29,280 --> 00:39:32,640
Speaker 2: going with the Carolina Panthers plus six and a half

747
00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 2: at home against the Chargers. Yeah I said that with

748
00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:51,319
Speaker 2: a straight face. Well not really, kind of have a

749
00:39:51,360 --> 00:39:55,400
Speaker 2: smile on my face, but yeah, last week, completely embarrassed.

750
00:39:55,960 --> 00:39:59,680
Speaker 2: They were horrendous from the start. They did nothing.

751
00:40:00,200 --> 00:40:03,560
Speaker 1: Sometimes the game can be so bad it's almost good,

752
00:40:03,800 --> 00:40:04,560
Speaker 1: you know what I'm saying.

753
00:40:05,320 --> 00:40:09,200
Speaker 2: No, nothing, well, and now you lose your best defender

754
00:40:10,239 --> 00:40:15,040
Speaker 2: up front and Derek Brown, I mean, it's it's not good.

755
00:40:15,160 --> 00:40:18,120
Speaker 2: So why am I betting the Panthers again? Number one?

756
00:40:18,760 --> 00:40:23,160
Speaker 2: This is just a spot that I will almost always

757
00:40:23,200 --> 00:40:27,080
Speaker 2: bet close to blindly, especially in Week two. Team off

758
00:40:27,080 --> 00:40:30,439
Speaker 2: a thirty five plus point loss. For what it's worth,

759
00:40:30,640 --> 00:40:32,960
Speaker 2: when they're catching four or more points. Over the past

760
00:40:33,000 --> 00:40:37,520
Speaker 2: twenty years, how about forty eight, eighteen and two against

761
00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:41,719
Speaker 2: the spread. That's seventy three percent overall, those teams are

762
00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:44,479
Speaker 2: sixty three percent, seventy six, forty five and six after

763
00:40:44,520 --> 00:40:47,239
Speaker 2: a thirty five plus point loss, covering by over a

764
00:40:47,239 --> 00:40:50,239
Speaker 2: field goal per game on average, any underdog in that

765
00:40:50,280 --> 00:40:54,279
Speaker 2: situation any size underdog fifty nine thirty and five over

766
00:40:54,360 --> 00:40:57,160
Speaker 2: sixty six percent again spread Why why am I quoting this?

767
00:40:57,239 --> 00:41:01,960
Speaker 2: Because the market generally overreacts and there's still professional athletes.

768
00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:04,160
Speaker 2: You're usually gonna get the team's best effort, You're usually

769
00:41:04,160 --> 00:41:06,760
Speaker 2: gonna make some changes after you get beat that badly,

770
00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:09,680
Speaker 2: and also no one wants to bet you, so you're

771
00:41:09,760 --> 00:41:13,040
Speaker 2: usually getting some value. I tweeted about the stat and

772
00:41:13,040 --> 00:41:15,560
Speaker 2: every single person world says, nope, this they're the exception.

773
00:41:15,800 --> 00:41:17,920
Speaker 2: I'm not betting it. Well, this whole thing is a

774
00:41:18,000 --> 00:41:21,640
Speaker 2: travesty and a sham and a mockery. It's a Travis

775
00:41:21,719 --> 00:41:24,560
Speaker 2: sham mockery. And you know sports folks that I talked to,

776
00:41:25,080 --> 00:41:27,120
Speaker 2: this is the Chargers run pays to be the biggest

777
00:41:27,360 --> 00:41:30,880
Speaker 2: percentage bet side in the years. They're plus six and

778
00:41:30,920 --> 00:41:32,680
Speaker 2: a half right now. It doesn't matter for the contest.

779
00:41:32,719 --> 00:41:34,799
Speaker 2: I do think they'll hit seven at one point. It

780
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:36,399
Speaker 2: doesn't matter if it just like the Seahawks last week

781
00:41:36,520 --> 00:41:39,239
Speaker 2: was minus six, it's a push. So if it was seven,

782
00:41:39,239 --> 00:41:40,640
Speaker 2: I don't think it all get to seven and a half.

783
00:41:40,719 --> 00:41:43,040
Speaker 2: But wait, wait on this, It doesn't matter for the

784
00:41:43,040 --> 00:41:44,759
Speaker 2: contest for the six and a half that we do

785
00:41:44,840 --> 00:41:47,080
Speaker 2: for the six pack, well wait for the seven. I

786
00:41:47,080 --> 00:41:50,640
Speaker 2: think it'll flash, might not last long. But this line,

787
00:41:51,040 --> 00:41:53,799
Speaker 2: this is just a huge overreaction, that's all it is.

788
00:41:53,880 --> 00:41:56,160
Speaker 2: Bryce Young looked awful. The offensive line looked better. I

789
00:41:56,200 --> 00:41:58,960
Speaker 2: will say that they couldn't get any pressure against the

790
00:41:58,960 --> 00:42:01,080
Speaker 2: Saints and they gona two press on the day. It's

791
00:42:01,120 --> 00:42:02,759
Speaker 2: week two. They didn't do some of the things I

792
00:42:02,760 --> 00:42:05,320
Speaker 2: thought they would do with Young. I had this line

793
00:42:05,360 --> 00:42:08,800
Speaker 2: before the year, and yes I downgraded the Panthers. Teams

794
00:42:08,880 --> 00:42:11,120
Speaker 2: usually aren't as bad as they look in one week.

795
00:42:11,239 --> 00:42:13,839
Speaker 2: And it's not like the Chargers looked great. What were

796
00:42:13,840 --> 00:42:17,640
Speaker 2: they plus twenty turnover EPA. They drives in the their

797
00:42:17,640 --> 00:42:19,719
Speaker 2: scoring drives in the first half against the Raiders were

798
00:42:19,920 --> 00:42:22,960
Speaker 2: five yards and five yards. And this is a team

799
00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:25,160
Speaker 2: that just wants to run the ball. You know, they

800
00:42:25,160 --> 00:42:27,759
Speaker 2: don't really have good They don't have great receivers going

801
00:42:27,800 --> 00:42:29,919
Speaker 2: across country here, it's not a great spot. You're gonna

802
00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:32,520
Speaker 2: get the Panthers' best effort. Whatever they have. This line

803
00:42:32,560 --> 00:42:35,440
Speaker 2: before the year, close to a pick is what I

804
00:42:35,480 --> 00:42:40,080
Speaker 2: had it. You're telling me we're adjusting this by seven

805
00:42:40,160 --> 00:42:46,120
Speaker 2: points because of last week. Come on, that's ridiculous. Panthers

806
00:42:46,160 --> 00:42:48,399
Speaker 2: could easily get blown out. Young could throw three picks again.

807
00:42:48,440 --> 00:42:50,719
Speaker 2: I don't care. I have to take this on principle.

808
00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:56,280
Speaker 2: This number is just outrageous. Give me the Panthers. It's

809
00:42:56,280 --> 00:43:04,239
Speaker 2: shit so good, it's raining.

810
00:43:05,080 --> 00:43:11,120
Speaker 1: Shitty not Yeah, the number is is crazy. I'm waiting

811
00:43:11,120 --> 00:43:12,880
Speaker 1: to see where it ends up. I'll probably end up

812
00:43:12,880 --> 00:43:16,160
Speaker 1: on the Panthers as well, for better or worse. I

813
00:43:16,200 --> 00:43:19,560
Speaker 1: hate it too, but I'm just concerned with with Bryce

814
00:43:19,640 --> 00:43:20,520
Speaker 1: Young though, because.

815
00:43:20,840 --> 00:43:22,000
Speaker 2: He doesn't have any confidence.

816
00:43:22,680 --> 00:43:25,120
Speaker 1: He doesn't have any confidence. I went back and rewatched

817
00:43:25,560 --> 00:43:28,160
Speaker 1: every snap. I don't know if I've ever felt like

818
00:43:28,239 --> 00:43:30,879
Speaker 1: this in a regular season game. I've seen I felt

819
00:43:30,880 --> 00:43:33,000
Speaker 1: like it in some preseason games because there's been some

820
00:43:33,080 --> 00:43:35,279
Speaker 1: quarterbacks who just don't belong in the NFL. But it

821
00:43:35,440 --> 00:43:38,799
Speaker 1: just felt like when I was watching, like one of

822
00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:42,319
Speaker 1: my boys go and and and just go out and

823
00:43:42,360 --> 00:43:46,080
Speaker 1: play on a field and against you know, actual athletes,

824
00:43:46,320 --> 00:43:48,680
Speaker 1: and you know, I have like a couple of completions,

825
00:43:48,719 --> 00:43:50,920
Speaker 1: but then just throw a couple of like bad throws,

826
00:43:51,040 --> 00:43:52,799
Speaker 1: like I gave him my best shot. But you know,

827
00:43:52,880 --> 00:43:55,080
Speaker 1: I'm I'm not supposed to be here, So you know,

828
00:43:55,239 --> 00:43:57,560
Speaker 1: like that's just kind of how Bryce Young not only

829
00:43:57,840 --> 00:44:00,839
Speaker 1: the throws, but his body language kind of looked like that,

830
00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:03,319
Speaker 1: Like that he throws up just an embarrassing pick on

831
00:44:03,360 --> 00:44:05,360
Speaker 1: the first play of the game, where it's just a

832
00:44:05,480 --> 00:44:08,680
Speaker 1: straight overthrow. He just looked so happless. And and but

833
00:44:08,800 --> 00:44:11,280
Speaker 1: the real thing that concerned me about it is because

834
00:44:11,800 --> 00:44:14,520
Speaker 1: Bucks didn't miss a beat without Canalis, they look great

835
00:44:14,600 --> 00:44:16,840
Speaker 1: and one of the best offenses in week two. And

836
00:44:16,880 --> 00:44:20,120
Speaker 1: then Carolina comes out and Canallis calls. You know, you

837
00:44:20,160 --> 00:44:22,279
Speaker 1: would think that he was kind of he's supposed to

838
00:44:22,280 --> 00:44:24,399
Speaker 1: be this quarterback whisper. You would think the fundamentals would

839
00:44:24,440 --> 00:44:26,480
Speaker 1: be better, you're thinking, but at least you would think

840
00:44:26,480 --> 00:44:30,040
Speaker 1: he kind of knows the limitations of his person. I

841
00:44:30,080 --> 00:44:32,160
Speaker 1: know it's his first game and you know, struggle, but

842
00:44:32,680 --> 00:44:35,439
Speaker 1: that was just disconcerting that he dials up a pass

843
00:44:35,480 --> 00:44:37,520
Speaker 1: play and Young misses by that much, and that wasn't

844
00:44:37,560 --> 00:44:39,560
Speaker 1: the only one. So I still think this line is

845
00:44:39,600 --> 00:44:41,880
Speaker 1: too high. I still don't think you can adjust that

846
00:44:42,040 --> 00:44:45,920
Speaker 1: many points for one week. But it's disconcerting that we

847
00:44:45,960 --> 00:44:49,840
Speaker 1: even have to have this conversation. All Right, that's gonna

848
00:44:49,960 --> 00:44:52,480
Speaker 1: wrap it up. For a Week two Sunday six Pack

849
00:44:53,800 --> 00:44:57,680
Speaker 1: tied it too, so see how this plays out. Stuck

850
00:44:57,760 --> 00:45:01,640
Speaker 1: went with the Packers plus three, the Titans plus three

851
00:45:01,640 --> 00:45:04,360
Speaker 1: and a half, and the Carolina Panthers plus six and

852
00:45:04,400 --> 00:45:06,240
Speaker 1: a half. I went with the Bengals plus.

853
00:45:06,360 --> 00:45:08,120
Speaker 2: Young will let.

854
00:45:09,440 --> 00:45:12,360
Speaker 1: You got the old Titans quarterback and the new Titans quarterback,

855
00:45:12,440 --> 00:45:14,560
Speaker 1: and I got to the Bengals plus six, the Browns

856
00:45:14,560 --> 00:45:16,120
Speaker 1: plus three and a half. So we had watched into

857
00:45:16,160 --> 00:45:20,880
Speaker 1: that West and the Rams plus one and quarterbacks are decent.

858
00:45:20,920 --> 00:45:21,399
Speaker 2: Look at you.

859
00:45:22,080 --> 00:45:24,960
Speaker 1: Now, it's time for our Week two coaches pep talk.

860
00:45:25,640 --> 00:45:27,799
Speaker 1: This is by far the worst team that has ever

861
00:45:27,880 --> 00:45:30,319
Speaker 1: sat in this slock of them, there's not one of you,

862
00:45:30,560 --> 00:45:33,000
Speaker 1: not one of you that's learned how to win. For

863
00:45:33,040 --> 00:45:36,200
Speaker 1: these weeks. Coaches pep talk, We're going to actor Christian

864
00:45:36,200 --> 00:45:39,360
Speaker 1: Bale in the two thousand and five film Harsh Times,

865
00:45:39,440 --> 00:45:44,560
Speaker 1: and gotta dedicate this one Cincinnati Bengals for ruining mine

866
00:45:44,600 --> 00:45:49,080
Speaker 1: and so many other survivor pools. This fucks up my plan.

867
00:45:49,440 --> 00:45:54,160
Speaker 1: This is fucking bullshit. Okay, this these fucking assholes just

868
00:45:54,280 --> 00:45:59,319
Speaker 1: fuck's fucking ash Holls. The fuck is that problem? Man?

869
00:45:59,680 --> 00:46:04,239
Speaker 1: Thanks you fucking typical bullshit. All right, best elect for

870
00:46:04,280 --> 00:46:08,400
Speaker 1: the Bengals this week, guys, better I redeem yourself. All right?

871
00:46:08,480 --> 00:46:12,120
Speaker 1: Favorite total of the week. I went first in sixth pack,

872
00:46:12,160 --> 00:46:14,319
Speaker 1: You went first for the total. Stuck where you're going?

873
00:46:15,719 --> 00:46:20,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, give me the forty nine ers Vikings under forty

874
00:46:20,719 --> 00:46:21,719
Speaker 2: five and a half. I think this will be a

875
00:46:21,760 --> 00:46:25,040
Speaker 2: slower pace game, just like Jets forty nine ers. Unfortunately,

876
00:46:25,440 --> 00:46:26,960
Speaker 2: for the end of the forty nine Ers scored on

877
00:46:27,040 --> 00:46:30,600
Speaker 2: every single possession. Yeah, but you'll see the play clock

878
00:46:30,680 --> 00:46:33,359
Speaker 2: going down. I think in that game, Shanahan was just

879
00:46:33,480 --> 00:46:35,560
Speaker 2: in his bag. I have time to prepare new solid

880
00:46:35,640 --> 00:46:40,200
Speaker 2: defense and knew exactly what to do all across the board.

881
00:46:40,280 --> 00:46:42,919
Speaker 2: But these two teams played last year. Trent Williams didn't

882
00:46:42,920 --> 00:46:46,080
Speaker 2: play in fairness. The Vikings actually won twenty two to seventeen.

883
00:46:46,800 --> 00:46:49,640
Speaker 2: Party made a couple of mistakes. I trust Flores to

884
00:46:49,680 --> 00:46:52,319
Speaker 2: come to cook something up here. You never know what

885
00:46:52,360 --> 00:46:54,120
Speaker 2: you're gonna get from him, and I think the Vikings

886
00:46:54,120 --> 00:46:56,719
Speaker 2: defense is actually better. I also think the San fran

887
00:46:56,840 --> 00:46:59,680
Speaker 2: defense has improved from a coordinator perspective. I like what

888
00:46:59,680 --> 00:47:02,879
Speaker 2: I saw from Sorenson. The adjustments are going to be

889
00:47:02,880 --> 00:47:06,520
Speaker 2: better than they wear under Wilkes and last year who

890
00:47:06,520 --> 00:47:09,760
Speaker 2: did all the damage. Jefferson didn't play, but Hockinson, Addison

891
00:47:09,760 --> 00:47:13,080
Speaker 2: I think had two touchdowns, McCaffrey had two touchdowns, and

892
00:47:13,160 --> 00:47:16,399
Speaker 2: Cousins was playing. And Sam Donald looked great last week,

893
00:47:16,560 --> 00:47:18,560
Speaker 2: I think number one and adjusted VPA per play among

894
00:47:18,600 --> 00:47:23,080
Speaker 2: all quarterbacks, but that was against the putrid Giant secondary.

895
00:47:23,280 --> 00:47:25,839
Speaker 2: This is a much tougher task. I expect a good

896
00:47:25,840 --> 00:47:28,520
Speaker 2: game plan from Flores. The Vikings defense is better. You know,

897
00:47:28,600 --> 00:47:30,799
Speaker 2: McCaffrey's not gonna play. Mason looked great last week, but

898
00:47:30,840 --> 00:47:34,279
Speaker 2: it's still a small drop off on the other side

899
00:47:34,280 --> 00:47:37,319
Speaker 2: of the ball. Sam Donald was just with Shanahan. They

900
00:47:37,400 --> 00:47:39,480
Speaker 2: know him very well, they know his tendencies, they know

901
00:47:39,520 --> 00:47:43,520
Speaker 2: his weaknesses. I don't think Addison's gonna play. Hockinson's not there,

902
00:47:43,719 --> 00:47:46,200
Speaker 2: so I think it's gonna be a lower scoring game,

903
00:47:46,280 --> 00:47:50,239
Speaker 2: slow paced clock running. Just got to hope that the

904
00:47:50,280 --> 00:47:52,560
Speaker 2: forty nine ers are not uber efficient and you get

905
00:47:52,640 --> 00:47:55,719
Speaker 2: some red zone stops, and I think this thing goes under.

906
00:47:56,360 --> 00:47:58,320
Speaker 1: I don't usually play forty niners unders. Of course, I

907
00:47:58,360 --> 00:48:00,720
Speaker 1: played win in Week one and where they score against

908
00:48:00,880 --> 00:48:02,640
Speaker 1: score like eight straight times because one of the best

909
00:48:02,680 --> 00:48:05,239
Speaker 1: defenses are one of the best thought to be defenses

910
00:48:05,280 --> 00:48:07,920
Speaker 1: in the league. So I don't know. I'll let you

911
00:48:08,360 --> 00:48:09,879
Speaker 1: roll with that one, but I do mean this way

912
00:48:09,920 --> 00:48:12,680
Speaker 1: because I think there is a path for the forty

913
00:48:12,719 --> 00:48:17,040
Speaker 1: nine ers to score at will and this game to

914
00:48:17,040 --> 00:48:19,440
Speaker 1: still go under because, like you said, this Vikings offense,

915
00:48:20,000 --> 00:48:23,359
Speaker 1: it's not the Giants this week. Back to reality, goes

916
00:48:23,440 --> 00:48:27,440
Speaker 1: Sam Darnold. Saddle mind this one, I'm going to a

917
00:48:27,520 --> 00:48:30,840
Speaker 1: kind of a weird one. We hit the the Pittsburgh

918
00:48:30,880 --> 00:48:34,640
Speaker 1: Atlanta total because Cousins predictably just couldn't move and Pittsburgh

919
00:48:34,760 --> 00:48:37,719
Speaker 1: just nothing but field goals. Ay man, I don't care

920
00:48:37,760 --> 00:48:39,839
Speaker 1: how the other thirty one are doing it, but this

921
00:48:39,880 --> 00:48:42,640
Speaker 1: one I'm going maybe all a surprising to some people.

922
00:48:43,040 --> 00:48:47,080
Speaker 1: Detroit Tampa Bay under fifty one and a half. I

923
00:48:47,080 --> 00:48:49,520
Speaker 1: think this is the highest total on the board, and

924
00:48:50,600 --> 00:48:53,200
Speaker 1: this is one it's it's the numbers play in terms

925
00:48:53,280 --> 00:48:56,120
Speaker 1: of when you look at these high totals, they tend

926
00:48:56,160 --> 00:48:58,560
Speaker 1: not to cash to the over because they tend to

927
00:48:58,600 --> 00:49:02,399
Speaker 1: be overrated. I mentioned it already. Unders at forty nine

928
00:49:02,800 --> 00:49:05,960
Speaker 1: plus are seventy nine forty nine and one sixty two

929
00:49:05,960 --> 00:49:09,480
Speaker 1: percent since twenty twenty one forty and sixteen since twenty

930
00:49:09,520 --> 00:49:12,600
Speaker 1: twenty two to seventy one percent. And both of these

931
00:49:12,640 --> 00:49:17,440
Speaker 1: teams are in the bottom four in situation neutral pace

932
00:49:18,080 --> 00:49:22,600
Speaker 1: the Bucks thirty three point four seconds between plays according

933
00:49:22,600 --> 00:49:27,040
Speaker 1: to FTN, the Allion's dead last at thirty four point

934
00:49:27,040 --> 00:49:32,480
Speaker 1: eight and first half pace Detroit twenty seventh, Tampa Bay

935
00:49:32,719 --> 00:49:36,359
Speaker 1: thirty first So you're gonna get a slow pace. And

936
00:49:36,920 --> 00:49:38,800
Speaker 1: I think the thing that would scare people, and it

937
00:49:39,400 --> 00:49:41,799
Speaker 1: is a concern, is Tampa Bay has no secondary. Now

938
00:49:42,360 --> 00:49:45,560
Speaker 1: Winfield went down. Three of their four active corners went

939
00:49:45,600 --> 00:49:48,000
Speaker 1: down last week, One is on IR another one I

940
00:49:48,040 --> 00:49:51,200
Speaker 1: think is in the concussion protocol. So the secondary is

941
00:49:51,239 --> 00:49:55,080
Speaker 1: going to be a problem. But what I like about

942
00:49:55,120 --> 00:49:58,359
Speaker 1: this for Tampa Bay specifically in this matchup is that

943
00:50:00,840 --> 00:50:05,600
Speaker 1: usually an aggressive defense secondary is so injured that I

944
00:50:05,640 --> 00:50:09,240
Speaker 1: just think you have to play less aggressive at times

945
00:50:09,320 --> 00:50:12,960
Speaker 1: and kind of sit back play off coverage. And remember

946
00:50:12,960 --> 00:50:16,200
Speaker 1: the Lions only have two receivers. They don't they haven't

947
00:50:16,239 --> 00:50:19,080
Speaker 1: really found their true x uh. You know, Khalif Raymond

948
00:50:19,200 --> 00:50:21,600
Speaker 1: is is you know play I think played ran around

949
00:50:21,600 --> 00:50:23,680
Speaker 1: an eighty five percent of the dropbacks as the number three,

950
00:50:23,680 --> 00:50:25,759
Speaker 1: but they would prefer not to do that. So the

951
00:50:25,760 --> 00:50:27,680
Speaker 1: Lions are still gonna be kind of a run first team.

952
00:50:27,719 --> 00:50:30,040
Speaker 1: They got into trouble when they started throwing it a

953
00:50:30,040 --> 00:50:32,400
Speaker 1: little too much with Goff. When they got back to

954
00:50:32,440 --> 00:50:35,399
Speaker 1: the run, things settled down, So I think they still

955
00:50:35,480 --> 00:50:39,360
Speaker 1: run the ball here. Tampa Bay can't run, but I

956
00:50:39,400 --> 00:50:41,840
Speaker 1: don't think Tampa Bay has as much success as they

957
00:50:41,880 --> 00:50:44,320
Speaker 1: had against Washington, who might be the worst defense in

958
00:50:44,360 --> 00:50:48,759
Speaker 1: the league. So I think what you're gonna get is

959
00:50:49,760 --> 00:50:53,440
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield getting the ball out quick. I think you're

960
00:50:53,440 --> 00:50:56,759
Speaker 1: gonna get the Lions running the ball. So even if

961
00:50:56,800 --> 00:50:59,360
Speaker 1: you get some scores and these defenses are both vulnerable,

962
00:50:59,360 --> 00:51:01,440
Speaker 1: no questioning of it, I think you'll still get some

963
00:51:01,480 --> 00:51:04,479
Speaker 1: long drives. And when you have long drives and slower pace,

964
00:51:04,960 --> 00:51:07,719
Speaker 1: that's one of the reasons why these high totals tend

965
00:51:07,719 --> 00:51:10,839
Speaker 1: to go under. So that's how I'm kind of looking

966
00:51:10,880 --> 00:51:12,880
Speaker 1: at this one. So give me the under fifty one

967
00:51:12,920 --> 00:51:15,840
Speaker 1: and a half Tampa Detroit. It's worth mentioning these teams

968
00:51:15,840 --> 00:51:20,600
Speaker 1: did play. Granted it was outdoors last season, but Baker

969
00:51:20,640 --> 00:51:23,760
Speaker 1: Mayfield probably had in the Bucks probably had their worst

970
00:51:24,280 --> 00:51:28,040
Speaker 1: offensive output of the season in that game. It scored

971
00:51:28,120 --> 00:51:32,560
Speaker 1: six points against that Lion's defense that was worse than

972
00:51:32,600 --> 00:51:35,760
Speaker 1: it is this year, and they only gave up twenty

973
00:51:35,800 --> 00:51:38,160
Speaker 1: So it was a twenty to six game. The Bucks

974
00:51:38,160 --> 00:51:40,320
Speaker 1: put up tw hundred and fifty one yards a total offense.

975
00:51:40,960 --> 00:51:43,719
Speaker 1: The Lions got three to eighty, but only forty on

976
00:51:43,760 --> 00:51:45,960
Speaker 1: the ground. Interestingly enough, so Tampa Bay does have some

977
00:51:46,080 --> 00:51:49,120
Speaker 1: juice against the run. But overall, I just think this

978
00:51:49,200 --> 00:51:52,080
Speaker 1: numbers a little too high. So give me fifty one

979
00:51:52,080 --> 00:51:53,840
Speaker 1: and a half under Lions Bucks.

980
00:51:54,160 --> 00:51:56,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't mind going under now that it's over

981
00:51:57,080 --> 00:52:01,520
Speaker 2: a KI fifty one, but I am concerned about the

982
00:52:01,560 --> 00:52:04,959
Speaker 2: Buck secondary now you have a cluster injury. In fact,

983
00:52:05,000 --> 00:52:07,359
Speaker 2: you already have a great offensive line. It could be

984
00:52:07,719 --> 00:52:12,080
Speaker 2: huge bounce back days for whod you mentioned earlier, the

985
00:52:12,160 --> 00:52:13,880
Speaker 2: porta Saint Brown.

986
00:52:14,080 --> 00:52:17,960
Speaker 1: That's that. I'm okay with that because that's slow paced underneath. Guys.

987
00:52:18,040 --> 00:52:20,080
Speaker 1: The thing about Tampa Bay, they're usually blitz at a time.

988
00:52:20,239 --> 00:52:21,920
Speaker 1: I'm happy to let the Lions pick up, you know,

989
00:52:22,000 --> 00:52:24,640
Speaker 1: five seven yards. You go up like twenty four to

990
00:52:24,719 --> 00:52:26,400
Speaker 1: three at halftime and just kind of run.

991
00:52:26,280 --> 00:52:29,839
Speaker 2: Out the baby bowl sits back more more. Cover two

992
00:52:30,400 --> 00:52:32,719
Speaker 2: doesn't blitz as much knowing the offensive line, knowing the

993
00:52:32,760 --> 00:52:35,359
Speaker 2: situation and says we're not going to give up explosives.

994
00:52:35,520 --> 00:52:37,680
Speaker 2: So that would definitely work in your favor.

995
00:52:38,160 --> 00:52:41,359
Speaker 1: No strong opinion, and just before you get away from totals,

996
00:52:41,440 --> 00:52:44,120
Speaker 1: just one kind of trend. So we kind of thought

997
00:52:44,160 --> 00:52:47,080
Speaker 1: that the league average for scoring would go up a

998
00:52:47,080 --> 00:52:50,280
Speaker 1: little bit, and it looks like it did. The average

999
00:52:50,280 --> 00:52:52,320
Speaker 1: scorer is about twenty two point nine, and we was

1000
00:52:52,440 --> 00:52:54,880
Speaker 1: just one week overall, even with some shaky offense, it

1001
00:52:54,920 --> 00:52:57,920
Speaker 1: was still twenty two point nine. So that's the reason

1002
00:52:57,960 --> 00:53:00,560
Speaker 1: I'm not looking to some of these lower total because

1003
00:53:00,760 --> 00:53:02,879
Speaker 1: you know, some of these key numbers, like you got

1004
00:53:02,920 --> 00:53:06,160
Speaker 1: Denver Pittsburgh thirty six. It's like, yeah, lean under that one,

1005
00:53:06,200 --> 00:53:09,320
Speaker 1: but now you're pushing it, especially with the league average

1006
00:53:09,360 --> 00:53:11,640
Speaker 1: up to you know, twenty three game. Same thing in

1007
00:53:11,640 --> 00:53:13,360
Speaker 1: like the Tennessee Jet game. It's like you kind of

1008
00:53:13,400 --> 00:53:16,560
Speaker 1: lean under there, but it's like forty forty and a half,

1009
00:53:16,760 --> 00:53:19,520
Speaker 1: you kind of pushing it. So I'm kind of in

1010
00:53:19,520 --> 00:53:21,160
Speaker 1: a wait and see mode on some of these lower

1011
00:53:21,160 --> 00:53:23,600
Speaker 1: totals because I think that's where we're gonna get squeezed

1012
00:53:23,600 --> 00:53:26,160
Speaker 1: a little more. Higher totals, they they tend to just

1013
00:53:26,200 --> 00:53:28,319
Speaker 1: be a little more inflated than they should. I think

1014
00:53:28,320 --> 00:53:30,319
Speaker 1: you have a little more wiggle room. That's how I'm

1015
00:53:30,360 --> 00:53:31,160
Speaker 1: kind of looking at it.

1016
00:53:31,520 --> 00:53:33,080
Speaker 2: And one last thode on this good fling game. It's

1017
00:53:33,080 --> 00:53:35,000
Speaker 2: just about the Lions. I mean all the lines. It

1018
00:53:35,120 --> 00:53:38,400
Speaker 2: was cover thirty six and sixteen against the spread the

1019
00:53:38,400 --> 00:53:41,160
Speaker 2: past four years. If you include one game this year,

1020
00:53:41,560 --> 00:53:44,560
Speaker 2: sixty nine point two percent they're even covering is five

1021
00:53:44,600 --> 00:53:47,000
Speaker 2: and a half point favorites where they close out in overtime.

1022
00:53:47,480 --> 00:53:51,319
Speaker 2: That's the best four year stretch of any team, better

1023
00:53:51,320 --> 00:53:53,279
Speaker 2: than the Patriots. See they passed the Patriots like the

1024
00:53:53,520 --> 00:53:55,960
Speaker 2: who had were just stellar gets the spread since the

1025
00:53:56,120 --> 00:53:58,000
Speaker 2: wildcard air in nineteen ninety amazing.

1026
00:53:58,560 --> 00:54:00,400
Speaker 1: It doesn't matter. If you have one ass cheek and

1027
00:54:00,480 --> 00:54:03,080
Speaker 1: three toes, I will beat your wraps. And that is

1028
00:54:03,080 --> 00:54:06,040
Speaker 1: a good segue into our favorite teaser of the week.

1029
00:54:07,239 --> 00:54:19,520
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

1030
00:54:11,840 --> 00:54:25,960
Speaker 1: Don't tease me. Both didn't come through with that Bengals

1031
00:54:26,040 --> 00:54:28,759
Speaker 1: upset last week, but I think we're both going the

1032
00:54:28,800 --> 00:54:32,640
Speaker 1: same way. So talk to me about the teaser for

1033
00:54:32,719 --> 00:54:33,240
Speaker 1: this week.

1034
00:54:33,640 --> 00:54:35,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, we keep it simple this week. If I had

1035
00:54:35,800 --> 00:54:39,040
Speaker 2: a bet one right now, Broncos came down to two

1036
00:54:39,080 --> 00:54:40,480
Speaker 2: and a half total of thirty six and a half,

1037
00:54:40,560 --> 00:54:44,040
Speaker 2: So Broncos great teaser piece to get up to eight

1038
00:54:44,080 --> 00:54:47,560
Speaker 2: and a half. And then if you can get the Giants,

1039
00:54:47,760 --> 00:54:50,279
Speaker 2: I get the Giants ever touchdown. That's one that I

1040
00:54:50,320 --> 00:54:53,360
Speaker 2: would look at. And then one that we also both

1041
00:54:53,520 --> 00:54:58,280
Speaker 2: like is the Texans the Lions who we just talked about.

1042
00:54:58,520 --> 00:55:01,080
Speaker 2: Now this is something easy you do. This isn't my

1043
00:55:01,160 --> 00:55:04,239
Speaker 2: typical teaser, sot my official recommendation. I guess I'll be

1044
00:55:04,320 --> 00:55:07,480
Speaker 2: the Broncos Giants, but I like this one too. But

1045
00:55:08,239 --> 00:55:11,200
Speaker 2: teasers getting more expensive. You can still find sign minus

1046
00:55:11,200 --> 00:55:14,279
Speaker 2: one twenties out there. There's Unicorn one off accounts. Still

1047
00:55:14,280 --> 00:55:17,040
Speaker 2: I'll have better than that, but mainly it's like minus

1048
00:55:17,040 --> 00:55:19,239
Speaker 2: one thirty still plus ev if you're doing true Wong

1049
00:55:19,320 --> 00:55:22,800
Speaker 2: teasers seezing through three and seven lower total but barely.

1050
00:55:23,200 --> 00:55:27,040
Speaker 2: But for this case, if you're teasing Texans and the

1051
00:55:27,120 --> 00:55:30,839
Speaker 2: Lions down to around a pick moneyline, parlat is probably

1052
00:55:30,840 --> 00:55:32,680
Speaker 2: gonna pay better. You can get like minus one twenty

1053
00:55:32,719 --> 00:55:34,960
Speaker 2: two out there, so always compare those prices. If you're

1054
00:55:35,000 --> 00:55:37,799
Speaker 2: teasing two favorites down that are around a touchdown, look

1055
00:55:37,840 --> 00:55:40,280
Speaker 2: to see what the money line Parlaight bays out because

1056
00:55:40,440 --> 00:55:43,000
Speaker 2: it's the same thing, and you also have you have

1057
00:55:43,160 --> 00:55:45,960
Speaker 2: more value because one by one then you're still winning.

1058
00:55:46,040 --> 00:55:50,040
Speaker 2: So always compare those two if you're teasing two favorites down.

1059
00:55:50,320 --> 00:55:52,640
Speaker 2: But we just talk about the Lions. I think their

1060
00:55:52,680 --> 00:55:55,279
Speaker 2: offense should hume here and then yeah, I really like

1061
00:55:55,920 --> 00:55:59,919
Speaker 2: the Texans to get it done at home on Sunday night.

1062
00:56:00,040 --> 00:56:03,960
Speaker 2: I mean, Caleb Williams looked lost. Eleven quarterbacks had had

1063
00:56:04,000 --> 00:56:07,240
Speaker 2: twenty five plus pass attempts and fewer than one hundred

1064
00:56:07,280 --> 00:56:09,799
Speaker 2: pass yards in their first career start. I mean, you're

1065
00:56:09,840 --> 00:56:15,560
Speaker 2: talking about like de Vedo, Ritter Hunley. It's bad. How

1066
00:56:15,560 --> 00:56:19,120
Speaker 2: did those quarterbacks do their second start?

1067
00:56:19,640 --> 00:56:19,960
Speaker 1: Bad?

1068
00:56:20,600 --> 00:56:23,680
Speaker 2: The Bears can't get pressure. It's like one guy on

1069
00:56:23,719 --> 00:56:28,080
Speaker 2: the defensive line, So good luck trying to defense Stroud

1070
00:56:28,080 --> 00:56:31,160
Speaker 2: in those receivers. And the other big development for the Texans,

1071
00:56:31,600 --> 00:56:34,080
Speaker 2: which I was very happy to see as someone who

1072
00:56:34,160 --> 00:56:37,279
Speaker 2: was a Texan Super Bowl future, the run game. They

1073
00:56:37,320 --> 00:56:40,239
Speaker 2: found a run game, They found that balance. The run

1074
00:56:40,280 --> 00:56:45,320
Speaker 2: game looked fantastic last week against the Colts, churning yards

1075
00:56:45,320 --> 00:56:47,120
Speaker 2: that we haven't seen that from the Texans. Usually it's

1076
00:56:47,160 --> 00:56:50,600
Speaker 2: just all on Shroud, So I think that's a nice

1077
00:56:50,600 --> 00:56:56,080
Speaker 2: development for Houston's offense. So yeah, my official recommendation, I'll

1078
00:56:56,120 --> 00:56:58,520
Speaker 2: go Broncos Giants for where the lines are now with

1079
00:56:58,600 --> 00:57:04,520
Speaker 2: lower totals, and then we both agree on Texans and Lions.

1080
00:57:04,560 --> 00:57:06,319
Speaker 2: We'll call it a money line, Parlin. But same thing

1081
00:57:06,360 --> 00:57:08,160
Speaker 2: for the teasers segment. Money line partlight.

1082
00:57:08,320 --> 00:57:11,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, and Detroit is fourteen and six against the spread

1083
00:57:11,400 --> 00:57:14,120
Speaker 1: is a favorite since twenty twenty one, kind of as

1084
00:57:14,120 --> 00:57:17,800
Speaker 1: you alluded to their thirty six and sixteen overall. If

1085
00:57:17,800 --> 00:57:19,600
Speaker 1: you tease it down, you would get in. You have

1086
00:57:19,680 --> 00:57:22,080
Speaker 1: gotten one more extra wins, so you'd be fifteen and

1087
00:57:22,200 --> 00:57:25,000
Speaker 1: five seventy five percent against the spread with a Lion's

1088
00:57:25,080 --> 00:57:29,480
Speaker 1: leg since twenty twenty one, teasing them down six points.

1089
00:57:29,720 --> 00:57:34,160
Speaker 1: And I'm curious real quick, are your thoughts on Houston Chicago?

1090
00:57:34,280 --> 00:57:36,400
Speaker 1: So I like Houston in this game, as do you.

1091
00:57:37,320 --> 00:57:42,760
Speaker 1: The line is six red most books. Now it's come

1092
00:57:42,840 --> 00:57:46,320
Speaker 1: down a little bit. How would you attack this because

1093
00:57:46,480 --> 00:57:49,960
Speaker 1: I like the Texas with six is like the money

1094
00:57:50,000 --> 00:57:52,160
Speaker 1: line for that is a little it's a little hefty.

1095
00:57:52,360 --> 00:57:54,040
Speaker 1: Would you just take the Texans on the spread? Would

1096
00:57:54,040 --> 00:57:55,800
Speaker 1: you play to win with the money line? Because I

1097
00:57:55,800 --> 00:57:58,560
Speaker 1: want to bet the Texans somehow individually of the Lions

1098
00:57:59,000 --> 00:58:01,560
Speaker 1: as well. But I'm I'm kind of going back and

1099
00:58:01,600 --> 00:58:03,040
Speaker 1: forth and how I really want to do it.

1100
00:58:03,400 --> 00:58:05,800
Speaker 2: I think they are a good money on parlay piece. Yeah,

1101
00:58:05,920 --> 00:58:08,840
Speaker 2: under six, I would lay it with them. It's probably

1102
00:58:08,840 --> 00:58:11,280
Speaker 2: a pass for me. Figure that one out your own, brother,

1103
00:58:11,280 --> 00:58:11,840
Speaker 2: I can't help you.

1104
00:58:12,000 --> 00:58:14,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, And it's just tough because I this is the

1105
00:58:14,520 --> 00:58:17,560
Speaker 1: team I want to invest in every week. Last week, luckily, luckily,

1106
00:58:17,600 --> 00:58:19,320
Speaker 1: I took the money a long for the Texans because

1107
00:58:19,400 --> 00:58:21,240
Speaker 1: they always seem to be in these weird games with

1108
00:58:21,600 --> 00:58:25,800
Speaker 1: with like two point conversions, gonna rye and right, like

1109
00:58:26,000 --> 00:58:29,040
Speaker 1: kickers getting hurt, and they had the Crooker was excellent

1110
00:58:29,120 --> 00:58:31,439
Speaker 1: last game, but of course somehow it's like a nine

1111
00:58:31,480 --> 00:58:33,240
Speaker 1: point game and then the coach make it on fourth

1112
00:58:33,280 --> 00:58:35,320
Speaker 1: down and it's like always something with them. So yeah,

1113
00:58:35,560 --> 00:58:37,560
Speaker 1: I might just lay the money line into like in

1114
00:58:37,640 --> 00:58:40,080
Speaker 1: addition to season them down. I both see who the

1115
00:58:40,120 --> 00:58:42,520
Speaker 1: line ends up, but I'll have a write up on that,

1116
00:58:42,560 --> 00:58:46,840
Speaker 1: but just for what it's where. CJ. Stroud is now

1117
00:58:48,040 --> 00:58:52,600
Speaker 1: six and two career at home, and he's ten and

1118
00:58:52,640 --> 00:58:54,720
Speaker 1: four in his last fourteen starts. After losing the first

1119
00:58:54,720 --> 00:58:59,400
Speaker 1: two overalls, but Broncos, Giants, Lions, Texans for the teaser.

1120
00:58:59,480 --> 00:59:03,600
Speaker 1: Now it's time for underdog money line parlay. Where are

1121
00:59:03,600 --> 00:59:10,160
Speaker 1: you going with your money line dog for week two?

1122
00:59:11,080 --> 00:59:14,400
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends.

1123
00:59:14,920 --> 00:59:19,200
Speaker 2: It's time for the money line parlay. Yeah, I'm going

1124
00:59:19,240 --> 00:59:21,720
Speaker 2: to go with the Denver Broncos, who would have been

1125
00:59:21,720 --> 00:59:25,440
Speaker 2: my third pick, but the line has dropped down and

1126
00:59:26,280 --> 00:59:28,880
Speaker 2: this is a classic Fae Tomlin spot, not a raw

1127
00:59:28,960 --> 00:59:30,680
Speaker 2: Rock spot. They pulled off an upset in Week one

1128
00:59:30,680 --> 00:59:32,240
Speaker 2: and they're going to play an O one Denver team.

1129
00:59:32,280 --> 00:59:35,040
Speaker 2: Second straight road game, you're going to elevation, by the

1130
00:59:35,080 --> 00:59:37,760
Speaker 2: way early in the season could be an issue. Broncos

1131
00:59:37,840 --> 00:59:40,800
Speaker 2: twenty and four straight up, fourteen six and four against

1132
00:59:40,800 --> 00:59:42,960
Speaker 2: the spread and their home opener since two thousand as

1133
00:59:42,960 --> 00:59:44,960
Speaker 2: a home dog. They're also twenty nine to nineteen against

1134
00:59:44,960 --> 00:59:48,160
Speaker 2: the spread over that span. Peyton off a loss is

1135
00:59:48,200 --> 00:59:50,680
Speaker 2: a god fifty five thirty three and one against the spread,

1136
00:59:51,000 --> 00:59:53,240
Speaker 2: sixty two and a half percent covered by a field

1137
00:59:53,240 --> 00:59:55,120
Speaker 2: goal per game. One win. If he gets one win,

1138
00:59:55,120 --> 00:59:57,040
Speaker 2: if he wins this game or covers this game, but

1139
00:59:57,080 --> 01:00:00,280
Speaker 2: basically got to win now, he would tie Belichick for

1140
01:00:00,360 --> 01:00:03,640
Speaker 2: the most profitable coach in history of the NFL after

1141
01:00:03,760 --> 01:00:06,760
Speaker 2: a loss. When Tomalin opens minus three or higher on

1142
01:00:06,800 --> 01:00:09,520
Speaker 2: the road, twenty one thirty five and two against spread

1143
01:00:09,560 --> 01:00:12,840
Speaker 2: thirty eight percent usually aren't raw ross spots when you

1144
01:00:12,920 --> 01:00:13,520
Speaker 2: are out of time.

1145
01:00:13,560 --> 01:00:16,600
Speaker 1: We all know it, you know what I mean.

1146
01:00:17,240 --> 01:00:19,720
Speaker 2: The Chargers and the Steelers were the voodoo teams last

1147
01:00:19,720 --> 01:00:21,520
Speaker 2: week in turners think they were close to plus twenty

1148
01:00:21,520 --> 01:00:24,680
Speaker 2: turnover EPA as well their scoring drives last week eighteen

1149
01:00:24,800 --> 01:00:29,959
Speaker 2: twenty three, twenty four, eleven, forty five, forty six didn't

1150
01:00:29,960 --> 01:00:33,560
Speaker 2: score a touchdown the Broncos was a tough spot for Bonicks.

1151
01:00:33,720 --> 01:00:37,720
Speaker 2: Going into Seattle against a McDonald defense won't be easy

1152
01:00:37,800 --> 01:00:40,680
Speaker 2: against the Steelers d but he has a start under

1153
01:00:40,720 --> 01:00:43,480
Speaker 2: his belt. It'd be a second home game. This game

1154
01:00:43,520 --> 01:00:46,640
Speaker 2: will just be played in two phone boosts. The totals

1155
01:00:46,680 --> 01:00:50,120
Speaker 2: thirty six, give me the underdog at home money line.

1156
01:00:50,320 --> 01:00:51,640
Speaker 2: A ton of variants in this game.

1157
01:00:51,840 --> 01:00:53,400
Speaker 1: I mean, you could have just said, Faye, justin Field

1158
01:00:53,480 --> 01:00:56,240
Speaker 1: is a favorite. That would probably have been enough. Man, Hey,

1159
01:00:56,440 --> 01:01:00,000
Speaker 1: Justin Fields favorite? Right? Yeah, pretty much all you got.

1160
01:01:00,240 --> 01:01:03,320
Speaker 1: I'm going with the New York Football Giants plus one

1161
01:01:03,360 --> 01:01:07,080
Speaker 1: oh five at the Washington Commanders. Giants historically own the Commanders.

1162
01:01:07,080 --> 01:01:09,280
Speaker 1: It doesn't really make much sense because the Giants tend

1163
01:01:09,360 --> 01:01:11,440
Speaker 1: to stink and they somehow still on the grands no

1164
01:01:11,480 --> 01:01:15,560
Speaker 1: matter what. Commanders have no real home field advantage. Still two,

1165
01:01:16,280 --> 01:01:19,880
Speaker 1: I think pretty evenly matched teams, and without the home

1166
01:01:19,920 --> 01:01:23,920
Speaker 1: field advantage, wouldn't be surprised the Giants get it done here,

1167
01:01:24,280 --> 01:01:28,560
Speaker 1: especially for whatever reason. Daniel Jones. His home road splits

1168
01:01:28,600 --> 01:01:32,560
Speaker 1: are just outrageous now and we're now five and change

1169
01:01:32,600 --> 01:01:35,920
Speaker 1: seasons into his career. Six point nine yards in attempt,

1170
01:01:36,040 --> 01:01:39,760
Speaker 1: thirty five touchdowns, fourteen picks on the road at home

1171
01:01:40,040 --> 01:01:42,960
Speaker 1: five point eight yards in attempt, twenty seven touchdowns, twenty

1172
01:01:42,960 --> 01:01:46,080
Speaker 1: eight picks. So from thirty five and fourteen to a

1173
01:01:46,160 --> 01:01:50,760
Speaker 1: negative touchdown interception ratio when he goes to East Rutherford.

1174
01:01:50,840 --> 01:01:52,960
Speaker 1: So yeah, now, and get him out of there, go

1175
01:01:53,000 --> 01:01:55,360
Speaker 1: to Washington. Let their fans get mad if their team

1176
01:01:55,400 --> 01:01:59,640
Speaker 1: is struggling. Gable, very good eighteen and ten against the

1177
01:01:59,680 --> 01:02:04,520
Speaker 1: spread as a dog. So I think the Giants, you know,

1178
01:02:04,680 --> 01:02:06,360
Speaker 1: they're gonna have to win a game or two this year.

1179
01:02:06,600 --> 01:02:09,720
Speaker 1: I don't think they're very good, but give me Giants. Yeah,

1180
01:02:09,760 --> 01:02:11,720
Speaker 1: you don't have to worry about that. Pretty simple go

1181
01:02:11,760 --> 01:02:13,160
Speaker 1: out there and rip that song, bitch.

1182
01:02:13,760 --> 01:02:15,640
Speaker 2: I said this all season on. These two teams are

1183
01:02:15,680 --> 01:02:18,800
Speaker 2: the same, They're mirrors of each other. Good pieces on

1184
01:02:18,840 --> 01:02:23,280
Speaker 2: the defensive line, both secondaries are horrendous. Both teams have

1185
01:02:23,640 --> 01:02:27,880
Speaker 2: awful offensive line situations. So yeah, taking the dog here,

1186
01:02:28,360 --> 01:02:31,680
Speaker 2: I think makes sense. This should be just a weird game.

1187
01:02:31,760 --> 01:02:34,040
Speaker 2: I hope I don't have to watch much of it.

1188
01:02:34,160 --> 01:02:36,760
Speaker 2: And Cliff, you're fading, Cliff, I can't believe you. Bad

1189
01:02:36,840 --> 01:02:40,120
Speaker 2: Cliff last week? How many times? How many times is

1190
01:02:40,200 --> 01:02:42,600
Speaker 2: Daniel's gonna throw short of the sticks on third down?

1191
01:02:42,600 --> 01:02:45,840
Speaker 2: I think he averaged eight yards short last week with

1192
01:02:45,960 --> 01:02:51,640
Speaker 2: that horizontal array. Yeah, I agree here, underdogs winless teams

1193
01:02:51,680 --> 01:02:54,280
Speaker 2: in week two. For what it's worth, fifty twenty five

1194
01:02:54,280 --> 01:02:56,720
Speaker 2: and three sixty seven percent since two thousand and three.

1195
01:02:56,960 --> 01:02:58,840
Speaker 1: Plus three to fifty one would be the Parley Eyes

1196
01:02:58,880 --> 01:03:01,840
Speaker 1: Bronco's plus twenty excuse me, Giants plus one oh five

1197
01:03:02,600 --> 01:03:12,560
Speaker 1: Survivor Pool pick of the week, the Survivorpool pick of

1198
01:03:12,600 --> 01:03:16,600
Speaker 1: the week, just like I think you did a couple

1199
01:03:16,600 --> 01:03:18,360
Speaker 1: of years ago about out in Week one. So I'm

1200
01:03:18,400 --> 01:03:20,880
Speaker 1: just gonna let you roll. You went with Seattle in

1201
01:03:20,920 --> 01:03:23,040
Speaker 1: week one? Who are you going with for week two?

1202
01:03:23,360 --> 01:03:26,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, I always balance, look up, I'm gonna do it

1203
01:03:26,280 --> 01:03:28,640
Speaker 2: as I'm doing with Circa. So I gotta get through

1204
01:03:28,640 --> 01:03:33,200
Speaker 2: twenty weeks and it's a huge it's like fifteen thousand entries.

1205
01:03:33,440 --> 01:03:35,520
Speaker 2: So that's why I went with Seattle, not since he

1206
01:03:35,720 --> 01:03:38,040
Speaker 2: in week one. But I do balance, and I have

1207
01:03:38,120 --> 01:03:40,640
Speaker 2: to map out, like who I'm saving for Christmas and Thanksgiving.

1208
01:03:40,720 --> 01:03:43,840
Speaker 2: It's a unique schedule, so I have to balance out

1209
01:03:43,960 --> 01:03:46,200
Speaker 2: who I'm gonna use, like if I want to be

1210
01:03:46,280 --> 01:03:50,040
Speaker 2: safe and just advance, or I want to like try

1211
01:03:50,080 --> 01:03:51,959
Speaker 2: and game there a little more, be a little risky.

1212
01:03:52,000 --> 01:03:53,600
Speaker 2: And I think it's about some weeks. You just got

1213
01:03:53,600 --> 01:03:55,760
Speaker 2: to survive some weeks. She could like last week, I

1214
01:03:55,800 --> 01:03:58,000
Speaker 2: wanted to be a little more risky and go against

1215
01:03:58,160 --> 01:04:01,040
Speaker 2: the most popular pick this I'm going with the Ravens

1216
01:04:01,240 --> 01:04:04,400
Speaker 2: week two, Harball extra time to repair. Last year after

1217
01:04:05,040 --> 01:04:06,320
Speaker 2: Ravens off the loss, they were four and I was

1218
01:04:06,320 --> 01:04:08,120
Speaker 2: straight up against spread. They won by an average is

1219
01:04:08,120 --> 01:04:10,680
Speaker 2: seventeen and a half points per game. Raiders coming across

1220
01:04:10,720 --> 01:04:14,720
Speaker 2: the country, they look bad and uh yeah, so I

1221
01:04:14,760 --> 01:04:17,400
Speaker 2: think the Ravens are the safest pick probably the most popular.

1222
01:04:18,000 --> 01:04:21,000
Speaker 2: Maybe the Panthers can surprise for me, don't I don't want.

1223
01:04:21,040 --> 01:04:23,440
Speaker 2: I don't want to bet the Chargers like I'm saving

1224
01:04:23,480 --> 01:04:27,240
Speaker 2: the Texans actually for the Ravens on Christmas. I'm saving

1225
01:04:27,280 --> 01:04:30,520
Speaker 2: the Chiefs. You know, teams like the Lions who playing Thanksgiving.

1226
01:04:31,000 --> 01:04:32,840
Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm going safe this week. I'm going with

1227
01:04:32,880 --> 01:04:36,480
Speaker 2: the Ravens, who I trust to win at home. It's Baltimore, gentlemen.

1228
01:04:36,800 --> 01:04:40,080
Speaker 2: The gods will not save you Ravens. By the way,

1229
01:04:40,320 --> 01:04:42,120
Speaker 2: I'll just finish up my thoughts in that game. Would

1230
01:04:42,200 --> 01:04:45,440
Speaker 2: lean that way lines about right, though. Lean. The under

1231
01:04:45,600 --> 01:04:47,000
Speaker 2: Raiders are always going to be an under team that may

1232
01:04:47,040 --> 01:04:48,560
Speaker 2: they just want to take away exposives. The usually have

1233
01:04:48,560 --> 01:04:52,440
Speaker 2: a good defensive game plan. Offense is bad, very conservative.

1234
01:04:52,760 --> 01:04:55,960
Speaker 2: Minshew four point six average depth of target last year

1235
01:04:55,960 --> 01:04:59,400
Speaker 2: the lowest among all quarterbacks last year with the Cults,

1236
01:04:59,400 --> 01:05:01,480
Speaker 2: it is like close to eight. They want to run

1237
01:05:01,480 --> 01:05:03,680
Speaker 2: the ball up, they can't run it. You gotta get

1238
01:05:03,720 --> 01:05:06,240
Speaker 2: Malik Harrison off the field. The guy has to get

1239
01:05:06,240 --> 01:05:09,320
Speaker 2: off the field. He was horrendous against the Chiefs. Only

1240
01:05:09,360 --> 01:05:12,920
Speaker 2: two linebackers. You gotta play Simpson. Van Ney's gonna be

1241
01:05:12,920 --> 01:05:15,800
Speaker 2: out you just gotta play Simpson along with Rokeland as

1242
01:05:15,880 --> 01:05:20,280
Speaker 2: much as possible. Harrison is washed, not washed. It's just

1243
01:05:20,400 --> 01:05:22,400
Speaker 2: is not good and for what it's worth, Minshew one

1244
01:05:22,440 --> 01:05:24,840
Speaker 2: in fifteen straight up in his past sixteen starts as

1245
01:05:24,880 --> 01:05:27,439
Speaker 2: an underdog, although I believe the one win was in

1246
01:05:27,480 --> 01:05:32,000
Speaker 2: Baltimore with the Colts when like Matt Gay had like

1247
01:05:32,560 --> 01:05:34,880
Speaker 2: I think he made like five fifty plus yard field goals.

1248
01:05:35,480 --> 01:05:37,840
Speaker 2: But yeah, the Ravens are just like a better version

1249
01:05:37,840 --> 01:05:39,400
Speaker 2: of the Raiders across the board.

1250
01:05:39,720 --> 01:05:41,640
Speaker 1: Speaking of Cowboys, that's a good segue to the best

1251
01:05:41,640 --> 01:05:44,200
Speaker 1: of the rest the games. We did not talk about

1252
01:05:44,200 --> 01:05:47,240
Speaker 1: in any other segment. That's gonna be a touchdown. There's

1253
01:05:47,280 --> 01:05:49,440
Speaker 1: no extra point, but that may be meaningful to some

1254
01:05:49,560 --> 01:05:53,000
Speaker 1: of you. And you know what I mean. We start

1255
01:05:53,040 --> 01:05:55,640
Speaker 1: with the Saints at the Cowboys. Cowboys favorites by six

1256
01:05:55,680 --> 01:05:57,960
Speaker 1: and a half. The total was forty six. And you know,

1257
01:05:57,960 --> 01:06:00,000
Speaker 1: when it comes to mich McCarthy attempted seventy one years

1258
01:06:00,160 --> 01:06:02,520
Speaker 1: field goals. I think it's a good thing because it's

1259
01:06:02,560 --> 01:06:05,240
Speaker 1: just reparing Dallas. You know, the criticism is there a

1260
01:06:05,280 --> 01:06:07,320
Speaker 1: bad playoff team, but you know, in the playoffs, Mike

1261
01:06:07,400 --> 01:06:10,200
Speaker 1: McCarthy is going to settle for a field goal when

1262
01:06:10,240 --> 01:06:12,160
Speaker 1: he should be going for it at some point, so

1263
01:06:12,960 --> 01:06:15,280
Speaker 1: you know, just kind of getting getting his kicker ready now.

1264
01:06:15,320 --> 01:06:18,400
Speaker 1: But in all seriousness, this is actually a Cowboys spot.

1265
01:06:18,480 --> 01:06:21,160
Speaker 1: Trend Wise, DAP favored by six and more thirty one

1266
01:06:21,240 --> 01:06:23,760
Speaker 1: and twelve against the spread, seventy two percent, a Derek

1267
01:06:23,800 --> 01:06:26,040
Speaker 1: Carr on the road off a win eleven and twenty

1268
01:06:26,040 --> 01:06:28,000
Speaker 1: four to thirty one percent against the spread, and the

1269
01:06:28,040 --> 01:06:31,000
Speaker 1: Cowboys at home since twenty twenty one, seventeen eight sixty

1270
01:06:31,040 --> 01:06:35,800
Speaker 1: eight percent against the spread. Anything add Yeah, Dak.

1271
01:06:35,640 --> 01:06:38,600
Speaker 2: Great is a favorite, you know, close to sixty percent

1272
01:06:39,360 --> 01:06:43,480
Speaker 2: twenty seven to thirteen since twenty twenty one. And the

1273
01:06:43,480 --> 01:06:45,160
Speaker 2: reason for that it's not all Dak. It's that the

1274
01:06:45,160 --> 01:06:48,360
Speaker 2: Cowboys are great front runners. Talked about this all offseason

1275
01:06:48,520 --> 01:06:50,400
Speaker 2: because then their defense pin its years back. That's what

1276
01:06:50,440 --> 01:06:53,040
Speaker 2: happened against against Cleveland. Do you get pressured, you can

1277
01:06:53,040 --> 01:06:57,800
Speaker 2: force turnovers and you know it's coming against the opposing offense.

1278
01:06:57,800 --> 01:07:00,760
Speaker 2: So that's why the Cowboys are such good favorites against

1279
01:07:00,760 --> 01:07:05,720
Speaker 2: inferior teams. This to me comes down to will car

1280
01:07:05,800 --> 01:07:10,439
Speaker 2: be pressure. Yeah, Saints offensive line created out elite last week.

1281
01:07:10,440 --> 01:07:12,040
Speaker 2: But they're playing the Panthers, right, how much of that

1282
01:07:12,080 --> 01:07:14,440
Speaker 2: was the Panther and Cars pressure numbers were bad last

1283
01:07:14,440 --> 01:07:15,920
Speaker 2: week I've seen. I saw some sweets by that he

1284
01:07:15,960 --> 01:07:18,680
Speaker 2: was pressured twice, so like the samples sized two throws

1285
01:07:19,160 --> 01:07:21,880
Speaker 2: for what it's right, but historically his numbers fall off

1286
01:07:21,880 --> 01:07:23,920
Speaker 2: a cliff when he's pressured. That's the key, and the

1287
01:07:23,920 --> 01:07:27,280
Speaker 2: Panthers weren't able to do it. Everyone in the Saints

1288
01:07:27,320 --> 01:07:31,280
Speaker 2: offensive line graded out of Laite. It's pretty funny a team,

1289
01:07:31,360 --> 01:07:32,760
Speaker 2: an offensive line that I had is one of the

1290
01:07:32,760 --> 01:07:34,880
Speaker 2: worst in the NFL. Still might be the case, but

1291
01:07:34,920 --> 01:07:36,920
Speaker 2: maybe they're improved. I did like what I saw from

1292
01:07:36,920 --> 01:07:39,960
Speaker 2: the Saints offense. Talked about an upgrade offensive coordinator, twenty

1293
01:07:39,960 --> 01:07:42,160
Speaker 2: eight percent more plats than the last year, thirty eight

1294
01:07:42,160 --> 01:07:44,880
Speaker 2: percent more prestat motion. They were one of the two.

1295
01:07:45,320 --> 01:07:47,400
Speaker 2: They were at the bottom bottom of the barrel in

1296
01:07:47,440 --> 01:07:51,600
Speaker 2: both categories, them and the Panthers last year. So some

1297
01:07:51,640 --> 01:07:56,720
Speaker 2: good signs there. But yeah, historically, with DAK and this

1298
01:07:56,800 --> 01:08:00,360
Speaker 2: Cowboys defense and the ability to generate pressure, they can

1299
01:08:00,400 --> 01:08:03,920
Speaker 2: get a lead. This is a good spot for the Cowboys.

1300
01:08:04,080 --> 01:08:06,880
Speaker 2: Dak all DAK and CD against Man coverage with Latimore

1301
01:08:06,920 --> 01:08:09,440
Speaker 2: potentially not playing. You know, Saints run a lot of

1302
01:08:09,440 --> 01:08:13,160
Speaker 2: two high man, heavy man. That's not a recipe for

1303
01:08:13,240 --> 01:08:17,000
Speaker 2: slowing down this Cowboys team. Ferguson their tight end will

1304
01:08:17,000 --> 01:08:21,519
Speaker 2: be out. It's decent loss, but we lean Cowboys. But

1305
01:08:21,560 --> 01:08:23,040
Speaker 2: I'm close to the number I want to see the

1306
01:08:23,080 --> 01:08:27,320
Speaker 2: Saints offensive line against because then the Saints I might

1307
01:08:27,320 --> 01:08:29,400
Speaker 2: take this offense way more serious. If their offensive line

1308
01:08:29,439 --> 01:08:30,439
Speaker 2: can hold off here.

1309
01:08:31,400 --> 01:08:33,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, then they would be a completely different unit because

1310
01:08:33,960 --> 01:08:36,200
Speaker 1: they got you know, they got a decent skill group.

1311
01:08:36,240 --> 01:08:38,960
Speaker 1: I like what Shaheed. I like Shaheed h then the

1312
01:08:39,680 --> 01:08:43,680
Speaker 1: is gonna be better when healthy, he's good, he can

1313
01:08:43,680 --> 01:08:45,800
Speaker 1: be tholid when he gets pressure. I just I mean,

1314
01:08:45,800 --> 01:08:47,920
Speaker 1: I don't like his style of quarterback because you know,

1315
01:08:47,960 --> 01:08:50,120
Speaker 1: it's like the minute he doesn't run, in the minute

1316
01:08:50,160 --> 01:08:52,720
Speaker 1: there's pressure, and like which it's going to happen in

1317
01:08:52,800 --> 01:08:57,479
Speaker 1: key games, it goes belly up. But uh yeah, they

1318
01:08:57,479 --> 01:09:00,480
Speaker 1: can they can maximize this if the offensive line is

1319
01:08:59,840 --> 01:09:03,720
Speaker 1: it was last week, so we'll see. But finish it up.

1320
01:09:04,120 --> 01:09:07,640
Speaker 1: The Seahawks at the Patriots. Patriots catching three and a

1321
01:09:07,680 --> 01:09:10,680
Speaker 1: half at home. The total is thirty eight. You're kind

1322
01:09:10,720 --> 01:09:14,720
Speaker 1: of Seahawks. High on the Seahawks this year, So what

1323
01:09:14,760 --> 01:09:16,120
Speaker 1: are your thoughts on this one?

1324
01:09:16,560 --> 01:09:19,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, Seahawks Patriots. This is the one low total that

1325
01:09:19,280 --> 01:09:21,160
Speaker 2: I would play. I think there's a little bit of

1326
01:09:21,240 --> 01:09:24,040
Speaker 2: value still. It is scary, but I just don't see

1327
01:09:24,040 --> 01:09:26,880
Speaker 2: how this game is not a rock fight. When the

1328
01:09:26,880 --> 01:09:30,200
Speaker 2: Seahawks have the ball, the Patriots defensive front can cause

1329
01:09:30,240 --> 01:09:33,720
Speaker 2: some issues. Seahawks offensive line on the right side specifically,

1330
01:09:33,880 --> 01:09:37,000
Speaker 2: is a mess. I mean Stone Foresight might start the

1331
01:09:37,080 --> 01:09:39,639
Speaker 2: right tackle, it looks like his fant's going to be out.

1332
01:09:39,920 --> 01:09:43,920
Speaker 2: They're already missing their starter. That's problematic that offensive line

1333
01:09:43,960 --> 01:09:47,800
Speaker 2: on the road. If Kenneth Walker doesn't play either, keep

1334
01:09:47,840 --> 01:09:49,599
Speaker 2: an eye on his status. I really like this under

1335
01:09:49,760 --> 01:09:52,920
Speaker 2: It's a huge drop off from him to Charbonnay. You

1336
01:09:52,960 --> 01:09:54,640
Speaker 2: saw that in the game last week. They just the

1337
01:09:54,680 --> 01:09:56,840
Speaker 2: Seahawks couldn't run it late. When Walker was in there.

1338
01:09:56,880 --> 01:09:59,080
Speaker 2: He basically blew that game open. He was running all

1339
01:09:59,120 --> 01:10:01,640
Speaker 2: over the Broncos. So yeah, it's hard for me to

1340
01:10:01,640 --> 01:10:03,960
Speaker 2: see the Seahawks offense having a ton of success because

1341
01:10:04,000 --> 01:10:06,040
Speaker 2: some of the things that's that the Patriots can do

1342
01:10:07,040 --> 01:10:10,240
Speaker 2: with their corners. So they have three good corners they

1343
01:10:10,240 --> 01:10:13,960
Speaker 2: can match up with the Seahawks receivers. They can bring pressure,

1344
01:10:14,160 --> 01:10:17,280
Speaker 2: blitz play man. That's really when Gino starts to get

1345
01:10:17,280 --> 01:10:19,439
Speaker 2: in trouble. I think it's a good match up there.

1346
01:10:19,479 --> 01:10:20,720
Speaker 2: But for what it's worth, I did like what I

1347
01:10:20,760 --> 01:10:23,560
Speaker 2: saw from Ryan Grubb in his first game. He was

1348
01:10:23,560 --> 01:10:26,639
Speaker 2: getting just schematically the run game. He's getting Walker into

1349
01:10:26,720 --> 01:10:29,880
Speaker 2: light boxes, really ramped up pre snap motion. I think

1350
01:10:29,920 --> 01:10:32,920
Speaker 2: there's a lot of positives to take away from that

1351
01:10:32,960 --> 01:10:34,760
Speaker 2: game after the nightmare start, because he had the work

1352
01:10:34,800 --> 01:10:37,720
Speaker 2: here starting on a one every possession, it felt.

1353
01:10:37,479 --> 01:10:39,439
Speaker 1: Like, hey, Jim Darnald starts on the one and he

1354
01:10:39,439 --> 01:10:40,320
Speaker 1: goes right down the field.

1355
01:10:40,400 --> 01:10:42,040
Speaker 2: So yeah, I did not like the one thing I

1356
01:10:42,040 --> 01:10:45,200
Speaker 2: didn't like. He's like starting in the shotgun and running

1357
01:10:45,200 --> 01:10:46,680
Speaker 2: it in shotgun at the one. Don't do that.

1358
01:10:46,760 --> 01:10:49,519
Speaker 1: You know, offenses in general just not good, because I

1359
01:10:49,520 --> 01:10:52,280
Speaker 1: remember even when he gets down there, like I remember

1360
01:10:52,280 --> 01:10:54,280
Speaker 1: that game against Detroit where he took like a forty

1361
01:10:54,320 --> 01:10:57,120
Speaker 1: yard sack down to like the five. Like, he's just

1362
01:10:57,160 --> 01:11:00,719
Speaker 1: not good in those tight spaces. Just just a disaster.

1363
01:11:01,000 --> 01:11:01,720
Speaker 1: They wrote me off.

1364
01:11:01,720 --> 01:11:04,120
Speaker 2: I ain't right back though, that's the problem. I ain't

1365
01:11:04,160 --> 01:11:06,320
Speaker 2: right back. Let's go, Patriots, what do they want to do?

1366
01:11:06,360 --> 01:11:09,479
Speaker 2: They just want to line up, run it, shorten the game.

1367
01:11:09,680 --> 01:11:11,800
Speaker 2: Their offensive line is still a mess. They're not gonna

1368
01:11:11,800 --> 01:11:13,200
Speaker 2: be able to just line up and run it as

1369
01:11:13,240 --> 01:11:15,599
Speaker 2: success as it did against the Bengals, who are weaker

1370
01:11:15,600 --> 01:11:17,559
Speaker 2: in that area than the Seahawks. And then the good

1371
01:11:17,560 --> 01:11:21,000
Speaker 2: thing is with Perssett he's just a pros pro. He's

1372
01:11:21,000 --> 01:11:24,040
Speaker 2: not gonna make mistakes top five all time and interception

1373
01:11:24,160 --> 01:11:27,639
Speaker 2: rate among qualified quarterbacks. It's gonna make the safe throws,

1374
01:11:27,640 --> 01:11:29,880
Speaker 2: which is good because whether total is low, you can't

1375
01:11:29,880 --> 01:11:32,400
Speaker 2: afford like a pick six, a bad pick in your

1376
01:11:32,439 --> 01:11:36,519
Speaker 2: own territory. So Patriots is gonna lean on the run game,

1377
01:11:36,800 --> 01:11:38,360
Speaker 2: So I don't think it's gonna have a ton of success.

1378
01:11:38,720 --> 01:11:40,519
Speaker 2: Seahawks have a good game play. This game should be

1379
01:11:40,640 --> 01:11:43,519
Speaker 2: ugly three and a half, right, I'm right right at

1380
01:11:43,520 --> 01:11:46,559
Speaker 2: three and a half, but it would be Patriot's another

1381
01:11:46,560 --> 01:11:48,080
Speaker 2: thing a three and a half just based on the

1382
01:11:48,120 --> 01:11:50,200
Speaker 2: way I see the game playing out and it being

1383
01:11:50,240 --> 01:11:53,640
Speaker 2: super low scoring, so like just having the hook in

1384
01:11:53,680 --> 01:11:55,560
Speaker 2: your pocket if you had to, like they're doing a

1385
01:11:55,680 --> 01:11:59,200
Speaker 2: pick them contest, but might play this under that's.

1386
01:11:59,080 --> 01:12:02,040
Speaker 1: Right for us. Then thanks for listening. You can hear

1387
01:12:02,160 --> 01:12:04,519
Speaker 1: more of me every week with my guy Sean Kerner

1388
01:12:04,560 --> 01:12:07,320
Speaker 1: talking Fantasy DFS player projections all that good stuff on

1389
01:12:07,400 --> 01:12:10,639
Speaker 1: the Fantasy Fox podcast and Stuck talking college football over

1390
01:12:10,720 --> 01:12:13,200
Speaker 1: on the Big Bets on Campus podcast. Also be sure

1391
01:12:13,200 --> 01:12:16,120
Speaker 1: to check out the Big Bets on Campus YouTube channel.

1392
01:12:16,240 --> 01:12:18,559
Speaker 1: You can find Stuck on X at Stucky Too, I'm

1393
01:12:18,600 --> 01:12:21,719
Speaker 1: at Chris raybond rethose same handles on the free award

1394
01:12:21,760 --> 01:12:25,360
Speaker 1: winning Action Network at until next time, It's get Thish

1395
01:12:25,400 --> 01:12:36,240
Speaker 1: money Look Go. Panthers.

1396
01:12:37,560 --> 01:12:42,080
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1397
01:12:42,080 --> 01:12:44,880
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1398
01:12:44,920 --> 01:12:48,040
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler