WEBVTT - The Deadline To Run: Gary Dietrich Talks to A&G

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<v Speaker 1>Pressure from the left after a prominent liberal calumnist rights

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<v Speaker 1>President Biden should not run again in twenty twenty four,

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<v Speaker 1>setting voter concerns about age and the VP's unpopularity.

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<v Speaker 2>That combination seems to me to be potentially dangerous for

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<v Speaker 2>the Democrats in fending off what would be a disaster

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<v Speaker 2>a revenge presidency by Donald Trump.

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<v Speaker 3>David Ignatius getting so much heat from the left for

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<v Speaker 3>saying what everybody knows is true. Oh yeah, not self evident,

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<v Speaker 3>not the stuff about Trump being revenged whatever, all that crap,

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<v Speaker 3>but the fact that Joe Biden is the most likely

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<v Speaker 3>person to lose and Kamala Harris would lose two. But

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<v Speaker 3>he also points out in that column it's getting pretty

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<v Speaker 3>late to do anything about it, which is true on

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<v Speaker 3>the right. Also, all these conversations about who's gonna run

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<v Speaker 3>and who's gonna jump into a race, and is Michelle

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<v Speaker 3>Obama gonna get in or on the left or Glenn

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<v Speaker 3>Younkin on the right, or at some point you run

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<v Speaker 3>out of time, And I thought we should talk to

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<v Speaker 3>somebody about that. Yeah, how's all that work? Let's ask

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<v Speaker 3>Gary Dietrich, non partisan political analyst, longtime friend of the

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<v Speaker 3>Armstrong and get a show. You ought to follow him

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<v Speaker 3>on the Twitter machine at Gary Dietrich. Gary, Welcome, how

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<v Speaker 3>are you sir?

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<v Speaker 4>Hey, Good morning guys. And so I've been waiting for

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<v Speaker 4>one of the two of you, I mean pretty much

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<v Speaker 4>every morning to throw your hat in the ring. But

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<v Speaker 4>time's a wasting, guys, It's time to get in. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>I feel like the average person runs around with this

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<v Speaker 3>belief that any human being can just decide to run

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<v Speaker 3>for president the month before the election and surprise everyone.

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<v Speaker 3>But what's the reality of when you got to get

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<v Speaker 3>in before it's too late.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, that's a great question, guys, And it is coming

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<v Speaker 4>up a lot right now for the reasons you mentioned,

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<v Speaker 4>And of course, you know, let's be clear also because

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<v Speaker 4>if Donald Trump's legal was in particular, you know, how

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<v Speaker 4>long before somebody else could get in? If somebody you know,

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<v Speaker 4>everybody kind of has sometimes their fantasy candidate, they're like

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<v Speaker 4>to see, this is the real key to the whole deal.

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<v Speaker 4>And this is why you also hear so much talk

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<v Speaker 4>pretty much every election cycle about you know, why does

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<v Speaker 4>an independent candidate get in and what would that take

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<v Speaker 4>and why is that so difficult? It boils down to

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<v Speaker 4>one very simple general fact, and that is, we do

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<v Speaker 4>not run national elections in the United States. We run

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<v Speaker 4>fifty separate state elections. Each state has their own filing requirements.

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<v Speaker 4>Some of those require a certain fairly sizable number of

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<v Speaker 4>voter signatures, others are just a filing fee. But they

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<v Speaker 4>all have deadlines. That's the real key, and so that's why.

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<v Speaker 4>For example, next month is the filing deadline for South

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<v Speaker 4>Carolina and Nevada. After that it's Arkansas and another state.

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<v Speaker 4>In December comes a whole slew of states, including the biggies,

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<v Speaker 4>California and Texas.

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<v Speaker 3>So in other words, if Michelle Obama decided, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>I am going to run for president in November, she

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<v Speaker 3>can't get on the ballot in South Carolina, in and Nevada,

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<v Speaker 3>for instance. If she makes this decision in November, she

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<v Speaker 3>just couldn't well as an independent or as a Democrat.

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<v Speaker 4>Either way. You have to, I mean you have to.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, if you're gonna put your name on a ballot,

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<v Speaker 4>you have to go through this filing process. And that's

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<v Speaker 4>the real challenge. That's what people sometimes forget, and that

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<v Speaker 4>is why you know, now there would be a difference.

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<v Speaker 4>For example, if the president were to stay in the

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<v Speaker 4>middle of next spring, for whatever reason, he's incapacitated, he

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<v Speaker 4>has to leave office, and then the vice president, of course,

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<v Speaker 4>would assume his dude, he's now you're in a whole

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<v Speaker 4>different ballgame. Half the primaries are over. You'd have to

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<v Speaker 4>have the party itself begin to think about what they're

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<v Speaker 4>going to do about it. And keep in mind, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>there is always the option for the party to have

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<v Speaker 4>a still called broker convention that came up sometimes, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>when we are talking about people like Hillary versus Bernie Sanders,

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<v Speaker 4>et cetera. But the real bottom line is you've got

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<v Speaker 4>to go through a process of getting your name on

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<v Speaker 4>a ballot. Every candidate, of course, has a filing process,

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<v Speaker 4>doesn't matter whether you're running for city council or whatever

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<v Speaker 4>it is. And they're very specific requirements to attach to

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<v Speaker 4>each of those.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, before we get off on that, So here's there

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<v Speaker 3>are a couple of scenarios I think are likely because

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<v Speaker 3>I am on the record saying Joe Biden will not

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<v Speaker 3>run again. He can't. HiT's absurd to think that he

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<v Speaker 3>could serve even part of another term. If if, for instance,

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<v Speaker 3>they go ahead and put off reckoning with that reality

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<v Speaker 3>until the convention he stands up and says, I really

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<v Speaker 3>can't be running. Let's have an honest debate here at

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<v Speaker 3>our convention of who we want the candidate to be.

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<v Speaker 3>They could do that right and get the candidate on

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<v Speaker 3>the ballot in all fifty sevents.

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<v Speaker 4>And Joe he would have a lot of leverage to

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<v Speaker 4>do that, particularly if he'd already garnered enough of the

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<v Speaker 4>delegates to make him the nominate. You know what I mean.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean he'd be saying, basically, I'm stepping aside for

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<v Speaker 4>whatever reason, and I'm not going to, you know, utilize

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<v Speaker 4>my rights of having this many delegates. It becomes a

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<v Speaker 4>lot more I see of courses when again I mentioned

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<v Speaker 4>that one scenario where you get to a convention or

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<v Speaker 4>get close to a convention with no clear winner or

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<v Speaker 4>at least or at least looking like there's some serious

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<v Speaker 4>competition there. This, by the way, has also made more

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<v Speaker 4>dicey on the Democratic side, because for those people that

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<v Speaker 4>don't know, the Republicans are following the traditional mode. You've

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<v Speaker 4>got the Iowa caucuses coming up here in February, You've

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<v Speaker 4>got the then then followed by New Hampshire the first primary,

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<v Speaker 4>et cetera. Yeah, let's see, I'm just looking for January fifteenth,

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<v Speaker 4>Iowa Republican caucuses real quick. On the Democratic side, there's

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<v Speaker 4>a huge debate underway. The Democrats want to make South

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<v Speaker 4>Carolina their first primary. They want to do that on

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<v Speaker 4>February third. They say it's going to make for more

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<v Speaker 4>diverse representation because.

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<v Speaker 3>They're they're that Biden could lose in some of those

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<v Speaker 3>other places. They want to start with a big win.

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<v Speaker 3>That's why. Yeah, let me clarify something. Get me real quick,

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<v Speaker 3>because I think we're confusing people. We talked about all

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<v Speaker 3>those filing filing deadlines in November and a slow in December,

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<v Speaker 3>blah blah blah. But now you're saying, yes, they could

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<v Speaker 3>switch the candidate in August of next year. So are

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<v Speaker 3>you filing to have like the party on the ballot

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<v Speaker 3>or what? How do you scare those two things?

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<v Speaker 4>Now you're filing, you're filing to have your own name

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<v Speaker 4>on the ballot, Joe, and what what's what ultimately happening.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm gonna jump it again because I'm I'm confused. So

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<v Speaker 3>are we talking about filing to run to be the

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<v Speaker 3>nominee of a party. Okay, but so okay, but you

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<v Speaker 3>could at the convention though, which is not till next summer.

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<v Speaker 3>Couldn't either party pick whoever the hell they want? Yes, okay,

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<v Speaker 3>So all of that is about the nomination process. But

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<v Speaker 3>once you get to the convention, because they make up

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<v Speaker 3>the rules at the convention, they can decide, you know what,

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<v Speaker 3>we do want Michelle Obama. That's possible, she's but she's

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<v Speaker 3>not on the ballot in any of the states. How

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<v Speaker 3>the hell does that work?

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<v Speaker 4>But the dem what ends up happening is the party

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<v Speaker 4>ends up having a you know that they have rules

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<v Speaker 4>committees and the rules Committee to get together and say, well,

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<v Speaker 4>look for various reasons. You know, this has been this

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<v Speaker 4>has been surmised when you've talked about, well what people

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<v Speaker 4>always ask hypotheticals, what happens if somebody gets assassinated on

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<v Speaker 4>a campaign trail or whatever, but now they've already got

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<v Speaker 4>two thirds of the delegates, then what do you do?

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<v Speaker 4>You start the process all over. We have you know,

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<v Speaker 4>primaries again in all those states. No, that's impossible, of course,

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<v Speaker 4>and so there has to be machinations, you know, within

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<v Speaker 4>party bureaucracies for all kinds of scenarios so that that's

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<v Speaker 4>how it works.

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<v Speaker 3>So they would just open it up and say, all right, you,

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<v Speaker 3>Gavin Newsom, you can file to run for president here

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<v Speaker 3>at the convention and we'll get you on the ballots.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, yeah, that's I'm glad you're bringing up a filing, Joe.

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<v Speaker 4>In that context. You now, you wouldn't file with the party.

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<v Speaker 4>The filing happens with each individual state, and that's why.

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<v Speaker 4>For example, okay, here's a good example. So this week

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<v Speaker 4>you had the Secretary of State for New Hampshire. People

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<v Speaker 4>have been trying to get bit Donald Trump's name. Listen,

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<v Speaker 4>reversus get Donald Trump's name kept from going on a

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<v Speaker 4>ballot because of the fourteenth Amendment and he's you know, insurrection,

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<v Speaker 4>et cetera, et cetera. The New Hampshire Secretary of State

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<v Speaker 4>came out this week and said, no, if he makes

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<v Speaker 4>the final requirements, I have no legal recourse. And the

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<v Speaker 4>ag in the state said the same thing about it,

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<v Speaker 4>I have no legal recourse to keep him off of

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<v Speaker 4>the ballot. That's Donald Trump filing to run in New Hampshire.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, all right, I'm gonna try one more time. I'm

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<v Speaker 3>gonna try one more time. I do feel like I

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<v Speaker 3>know less than I did before we started. I'm not

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<v Speaker 3>blaming you for this, Gary, but I feel like I

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<v Speaker 3>know less than before. I'm gonna pick Gavin Newsom just

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<v Speaker 3>because his name is bandied about. Gavin Newsom, who has

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<v Speaker 3>not filed to be on any ballots anywhere, is tabbed

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<v Speaker 3>to be the nominee. When Joe Boden announces he's not

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<v Speaker 3>running at the convention, you said, yes, they can do that.

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<v Speaker 3>He can run, but he has not filed in the

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<v Speaker 3>way you described. So how can he be the nominee?

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<v Speaker 3>How does he get on the ballots? Has they'll change

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<v Speaker 3>the rules?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, those that those filings I'm talking about, guys, are

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<v Speaker 4>just for the primaries in each of the individual fifty states. Okay,

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<v Speaker 4>I recognize why this is confusing. So he that's for

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<v Speaker 4>the primary elections. The general election is a separate as

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<v Speaker 4>a separate entity next November, of course.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay. So that's well, like the authorities in Pennsylvania, we

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<v Speaker 3>have finally found the suspect that we are looking for,

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<v Speaker 3>and that's the distinction between the primaries and the general.

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<v Speaker 3>So where the general election do the two major parties

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<v Speaker 3>basically have and they're already they're already in they have

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<v Speaker 3>an open slot. AD Democrat and AD Republican are going

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<v Speaker 3>to run in the general election. At the convention, either

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<v Speaker 3>through the primary process or some new process, they can

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<v Speaker 3>pick whoever they want.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, yeah, basically the parties control who their nominee is

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<v Speaker 4>the state. So yeah, so the parties get to select

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<v Speaker 4>who they want. And again this has been talked about

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<v Speaker 4>over the years. You know, again for all the hypotheticals

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<v Speaker 4>I threw out there, you know, what if somebody gets sick,

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<v Speaker 4>what if they find some huge problem you know, in

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<v Speaker 4>their in their whatever it is, and then the parties

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<v Speaker 4>don't want to put them up as their nominee, or

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<v Speaker 4>you have a so called brokeer convention. You get there

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<v Speaker 4>and you don't have nobody has enough delegates. Then the

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<v Speaker 4>party has to become involved at the convention. And that's

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<v Speaker 4>why you hear about the so called brokered convention.

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<v Speaker 3>But whoever they pick, anybody is okay to run as

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<v Speaker 3>the Democrat or the Republican for the general election, Yes,

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<v Speaker 3>clearly so, so what I have been saying has been wrong,

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<v Speaker 3>I think for a long time. Then sol Michelle Obama

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<v Speaker 3>could drop in out of nowhere to the convention. They

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<v Speaker 3>decide to run her at the last moment. Mm hmm h.

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<v Speaker 4>Yes, and this is this is you know it probably

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<v Speaker 4>next year, guys, we're gonna hear more about this than

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<v Speaker 4>we ever have for the reasons you guys have already noted.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, and the same is true, the same as

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<v Speaker 4>too a Donald Trump. Let's just say he goes through

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<v Speaker 4>and all of a sudden next spring, he collects three

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<v Speaker 4>convictions right on these four different trials. I'm just making

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<v Speaker 4>this up right, But he's got a whole bunch of delegates.

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<v Speaker 4>Republicans could decide. Listen, you know, we just cannot go

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<v Speaker 4>with this guy at the convention. That's that's possible to happen.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, We've got to be at both conventions because they

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<v Speaker 3>both brokeren conventions. Because I've been I've been mocking for years.

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<v Speaker 3>I remember Tim Russert and Meet the Press and always saying,

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<v Speaker 3>so we could have a broken conn There's not going

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<v Speaker 3>to be a brokered convention, you guys. Just your wet

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<v Speaker 3>dream is a brokeren convention all you old the journalists

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<v Speaker 3>or whatever, and we got a process. Well, this time

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<v Speaker 3>we could have two Wow, could be Gary Dietrich, non

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<v Speaker 3>partisan political analyst. Follow him on Twitter at Gary Dietrich. Gary,

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<v Speaker 3>thanks for the enlightenment. It was our bad our, confusion,

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<v Speaker 3>or just just towering ignorance as usual, but it's always

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<v Speaker 3>good to talk likewise. Thank you.