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Speaker 1: Pressure from the left after a prominent liberal calumnist rights

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Speaker 1: President Biden should not run again in twenty twenty four,

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Speaker 1: setting voter concerns about age and the VP's unpopularity.

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Speaker 2: That combination seems to me to be potentially dangerous for

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Speaker 2: the Democrats in fending off what would be a disaster

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Speaker 2: a revenge presidency by Donald Trump.

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Speaker 3: David Ignatius getting so much heat from the left for

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Speaker 3: saying what everybody knows is true. Oh yeah, not self evident,

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Speaker 3: not the stuff about Trump being revenged whatever, all that crap,

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Speaker 3: but the fact that Joe Biden is the most likely

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Speaker 3: person to lose and Kamala Harris would lose two. But

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Speaker 3: he also points out in that column it's getting pretty

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Speaker 3: late to do anything about it, which is true on

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Speaker 3: the right. Also, all these conversations about who's gonna run

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Speaker 3: and who's gonna jump into a race, and is Michelle

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Speaker 3: Obama gonna get in or on the left or Glenn

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Speaker 3: Younkin on the right, or at some point you run

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Speaker 3: out of time, And I thought we should talk to

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Speaker 3: somebody about that. Yeah, how's all that work? Let's ask

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Speaker 3: Gary Dietrich, non partisan political analyst, longtime friend of the

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Speaker 3: Armstrong and get a show. You ought to follow him

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Speaker 3: on the Twitter machine at Gary Dietrich. Gary, Welcome, how

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Speaker 3: are you sir?

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Speaker 4: Hey, Good morning guys. And so I've been waiting for

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Speaker 4: one of the two of you, I mean pretty much

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Speaker 4: every morning to throw your hat in the ring. But

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Speaker 4: time's a wasting, guys, It's time to get in. Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I feel like the average person runs around with this

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Speaker 3: belief that any human being can just decide to run

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Speaker 3: for president the month before the election and surprise everyone.

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Speaker 3: But what's the reality of when you got to get

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Speaker 3: in before it's too late.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that's a great question, guys, And it is coming

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Speaker 4: up a lot right now for the reasons you mentioned,

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Speaker 4: And of course, you know, let's be clear also because

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Speaker 4: if Donald Trump's legal was in particular, you know, how

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Speaker 4: long before somebody else could get in? If somebody you know,

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Speaker 4: everybody kind of has sometimes their fantasy candidate, they're like

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Speaker 4: to see, this is the real key to the whole deal.

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Speaker 4: And this is why you also hear so much talk

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Speaker 4: pretty much every election cycle about you know, why does

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Speaker 4: an independent candidate get in and what would that take

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Speaker 4: and why is that so difficult? It boils down to

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Speaker 4: one very simple general fact, and that is, we do

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Speaker 4: not run national elections in the United States. We run

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Speaker 4: fifty separate state elections. Each state has their own filing requirements.

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Speaker 4: Some of those require a certain fairly sizable number of

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Speaker 4: voter signatures, others are just a filing fee. But they

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Speaker 4: all have deadlines. That's the real key, and so that's why.

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Speaker 4: For example, next month is the filing deadline for South

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Speaker 4: Carolina and Nevada. After that it's Arkansas and another state.

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Speaker 4: In December comes a whole slew of states, including the biggies,

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Speaker 4: California and Texas.

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Speaker 3: So in other words, if Michelle Obama decided, you know,

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Speaker 3: I am going to run for president in November, she

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Speaker 3: can't get on the ballot in South Carolina, in and Nevada,

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Speaker 3: for instance. If she makes this decision in November, she

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Speaker 3: just couldn't well as an independent or as a Democrat.

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Speaker 4: Either way. You have to, I mean you have to.

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Speaker 4: You know, if you're gonna put your name on a ballot,

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Speaker 4: you have to go through this filing process. And that's

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Speaker 4: the real challenge. That's what people sometimes forget, and that

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Speaker 4: is why you know, now there would be a difference.

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Speaker 4: For example, if the president were to stay in the

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Speaker 4: middle of next spring, for whatever reason, he's incapacitated, he

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Speaker 4: has to leave office, and then the vice president, of course,

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Speaker 4: would assume his dude, he's now you're in a whole

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Speaker 4: different ballgame. Half the primaries are over. You'd have to

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Speaker 4: have the party itself begin to think about what they're

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Speaker 4: going to do about it. And keep in mind, you know,

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Speaker 4: there is always the option for the party to have

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Speaker 4: a still called broker convention that came up sometimes, you know,

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Speaker 4: when we are talking about people like Hillary versus Bernie Sanders,

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Speaker 4: et cetera. But the real bottom line is you've got

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Speaker 4: to go through a process of getting your name on

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Speaker 4: a ballot. Every candidate, of course, has a filing process,

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Speaker 4: doesn't matter whether you're running for city council or whatever

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Speaker 4: it is. And they're very specific requirements to attach to

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Speaker 4: each of those.

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Speaker 3: Okay, before we get off on that, So here's there

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Speaker 3: are a couple of scenarios I think are likely because

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Speaker 3: I am on the record saying Joe Biden will not

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Speaker 3: run again. He can't. HiT's absurd to think that he

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Speaker 3: could serve even part of another term. If if, for instance,

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Speaker 3: they go ahead and put off reckoning with that reality

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Speaker 3: until the convention he stands up and says, I really

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Speaker 3: can't be running. Let's have an honest debate here at

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Speaker 3: our convention of who we want the candidate to be.

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Speaker 3: They could do that right and get the candidate on

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Speaker 3: the ballot in all fifty sevents.

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Speaker 4: And Joe he would have a lot of leverage to

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Speaker 4: do that, particularly if he'd already garnered enough of the

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Speaker 4: delegates to make him the nominate. You know what I mean.

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Speaker 4: I mean he'd be saying, basically, I'm stepping aside for

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Speaker 4: whatever reason, and I'm not going to, you know, utilize

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Speaker 4: my rights of having this many delegates. It becomes a

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Speaker 4: lot more I see of courses when again I mentioned

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Speaker 4: that one scenario where you get to a convention or

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Speaker 4: get close to a convention with no clear winner or

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Speaker 4: at least or at least looking like there's some serious

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Speaker 4: competition there. This, by the way, has also made more

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Speaker 4: dicey on the Democratic side, because for those people that

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Speaker 4: don't know, the Republicans are following the traditional mode. You've

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Speaker 4: got the Iowa caucuses coming up here in February, You've

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Speaker 4: got the then then followed by New Hampshire the first primary,

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Speaker 4: et cetera. Yeah, let's see, I'm just looking for January fifteenth,

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Speaker 4: Iowa Republican caucuses real quick. On the Democratic side, there's

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Speaker 4: a huge debate underway. The Democrats want to make South

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Speaker 4: Carolina their first primary. They want to do that on

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Speaker 4: February third. They say it's going to make for more

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Speaker 4: diverse representation because.

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Speaker 3: They're they're that Biden could lose in some of those

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Speaker 3: other places. They want to start with a big win.

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Speaker 3: That's why. Yeah, let me clarify something. Get me real quick,

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Speaker 3: because I think we're confusing people. We talked about all

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Speaker 3: those filing filing deadlines in November and a slow in December,

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Speaker 3: blah blah blah. But now you're saying, yes, they could

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Speaker 3: switch the candidate in August of next year. So are

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Speaker 3: you filing to have like the party on the ballot

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Speaker 3: or what? How do you scare those two things?

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Speaker 4: Now you're filing, you're filing to have your own name

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Speaker 4: on the ballot, Joe, and what what's what ultimately happening.

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna jump it again because I'm I'm confused. So

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Speaker 3: are we talking about filing to run to be the

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Speaker 3: nominee of a party. Okay, but so okay, but you

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Speaker 3: could at the convention though, which is not till next summer.

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Speaker 3: Couldn't either party pick whoever the hell they want? Yes, okay,

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Speaker 3: So all of that is about the nomination process. But

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Speaker 3: once you get to the convention, because they make up

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Speaker 3: the rules at the convention, they can decide, you know what,

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Speaker 3: we do want Michelle Obama. That's possible, she's but she's

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Speaker 3: not on the ballot in any of the states. How

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Speaker 3: the hell does that work?

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Speaker 4: But the dem what ends up happening is the party

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Speaker 4: ends up having a you know that they have rules

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Speaker 4: committees and the rules Committee to get together and say, well,

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Speaker 4: look for various reasons. You know, this has been this

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Speaker 4: has been surmised when you've talked about, well what people

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Speaker 4: always ask hypotheticals, what happens if somebody gets assassinated on

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Speaker 4: a campaign trail or whatever, but now they've already got

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Speaker 4: two thirds of the delegates, then what do you do?

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Speaker 4: You start the process all over. We have you know,

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Speaker 4: primaries again in all those states. No, that's impossible, of course,

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Speaker 4: and so there has to be machinations, you know, within

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Speaker 4: party bureaucracies for all kinds of scenarios so that that's

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Speaker 4: how it works.

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Speaker 3: So they would just open it up and say, all right, you,

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Speaker 3: Gavin Newsom, you can file to run for president here

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Speaker 3: at the convention and we'll get you on the ballots.

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Speaker 4: Well, yeah, that's I'm glad you're bringing up a filing, Joe.

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Speaker 4: In that context. You now, you wouldn't file with the party.

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Speaker 4: The filing happens with each individual state, and that's why.

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Speaker 4: For example, okay, here's a good example. So this week

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Speaker 4: you had the Secretary of State for New Hampshire. People

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Speaker 4: have been trying to get bit Donald Trump's name. Listen,

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Speaker 4: reversus get Donald Trump's name kept from going on a

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Speaker 4: ballot because of the fourteenth Amendment and he's you know, insurrection,

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Speaker 4: et cetera, et cetera. The New Hampshire Secretary of State

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Speaker 4: came out this week and said, no, if he makes

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Speaker 4: the final requirements, I have no legal recourse. And the

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Speaker 4: ag in the state said the same thing about it,

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Speaker 4: I have no legal recourse to keep him off of

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Speaker 4: the ballot. That's Donald Trump filing to run in New Hampshire.

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Speaker 3: Okay, all right, I'm gonna try one more time. I'm

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Speaker 3: gonna try one more time. I do feel like I

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Speaker 3: know less than I did before we started. I'm not

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Speaker 3: blaming you for this, Gary, but I feel like I

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Speaker 3: know less than before. I'm gonna pick Gavin Newsom just

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Speaker 3: because his name is bandied about. Gavin Newsom, who has

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Speaker 3: not filed to be on any ballots anywhere, is tabbed

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Speaker 3: to be the nominee. When Joe Boden announces he's not

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Speaker 3: running at the convention, you said, yes, they can do that.

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Speaker 3: He can run, but he has not filed in the

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Speaker 3: way you described. So how can he be the nominee?

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Speaker 3: How does he get on the ballots? Has they'll change

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Speaker 3: the rules?

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Speaker 4: Well, those that those filings I'm talking about, guys, are

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Speaker 4: just for the primaries in each of the individual fifty states. Okay,

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Speaker 4: I recognize why this is confusing. So he that's for

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Speaker 4: the primary elections. The general election is a separate as

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Speaker 4: a separate entity next November, of course.

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Speaker 3: Okay. So that's well, like the authorities in Pennsylvania, we

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Speaker 3: have finally found the suspect that we are looking for,

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Speaker 3: and that's the distinction between the primaries and the general.

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Speaker 3: So where the general election do the two major parties

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Speaker 3: basically have and they're already they're already in they have

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Speaker 3: an open slot. AD Democrat and AD Republican are going

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Speaker 3: to run in the general election. At the convention, either

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Speaker 3: through the primary process or some new process, they can

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Speaker 3: pick whoever they want.

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Speaker 4: Well, yeah, basically the parties control who their nominee is

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Speaker 4: the state. So yeah, so the parties get to select

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Speaker 4: who they want. And again this has been talked about

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Speaker 4: over the years. You know, again for all the hypotheticals

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Speaker 4: I threw out there, you know, what if somebody gets sick,

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Speaker 4: what if they find some huge problem you know, in

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Speaker 4: their in their whatever it is, and then the parties

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Speaker 4: don't want to put them up as their nominee, or

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Speaker 4: you have a so called brokeer convention. You get there

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Speaker 4: and you don't have nobody has enough delegates. Then the

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Speaker 4: party has to become involved at the convention. And that's

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Speaker 4: why you hear about the so called brokered convention.

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Speaker 3: But whoever they pick, anybody is okay to run as

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Speaker 3: the Democrat or the Republican for the general election, Yes,

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Speaker 3: clearly so, so what I have been saying has been wrong,

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Speaker 3: I think for a long time. Then sol Michelle Obama

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Speaker 3: could drop in out of nowhere to the convention. They

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Speaker 3: decide to run her at the last moment. Mm hmm h.

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Speaker 4: Yes, and this is this is you know it probably

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Speaker 4: next year, guys, we're gonna hear more about this than

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Speaker 4: we ever have for the reasons you guys have already noted.

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Speaker 4: I mean, and the same is true, the same as

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Speaker 4: too a Donald Trump. Let's just say he goes through

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Speaker 4: and all of a sudden next spring, he collects three

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Speaker 4: convictions right on these four different trials. I'm just making

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Speaker 4: this up right, But he's got a whole bunch of delegates.

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Speaker 4: Republicans could decide. Listen, you know, we just cannot go

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Speaker 4: with this guy at the convention. That's that's possible to happen.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, We've got to be at both conventions because they

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Speaker 3: both brokeren conventions. Because I've been I've been mocking for years.

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Speaker 3: I remember Tim Russert and Meet the Press and always saying,

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Speaker 3: so we could have a broken conn There's not going

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Speaker 3: to be a brokered convention, you guys. Just your wet

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Speaker 3: dream is a brokeren convention all you old the journalists

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Speaker 3: or whatever, and we got a process. Well, this time

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Speaker 3: we could have two Wow, could be Gary Dietrich, non

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Speaker 3: partisan political analyst. Follow him on Twitter at Gary Dietrich. Gary,

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Speaker 3: thanks for the enlightenment. It was our bad our, confusion,

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Speaker 3: or just just towering ignorance as usual, but it's always

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Speaker 3: good to talk likewise. Thank you.