WEBVTT - Creating Equality for Financial Markets 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:03.360 You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:05.840 Tim Stenebek on Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:06.200 --> 0:00:08.680 So we recently reported on how the US Supreme Court 0:00:08.720 --> 0:00:11.360 is near decisions on the use of affirmative action at 0:00:11.360 --> 0:00:14.480 colleges and university. It's something US businesses are watching very closely. 0:00:14.680 --> 0:00:16.080 So by the end of this month, I mean there's 0:00:16.079 --> 0:00:18.880 only a few days left, matt Leal experts predict that 0:00:18.880 --> 0:00:21.400 the US Supreme Court will ban race based admissions in 0:00:21.440 --> 0:00:24.079 higher education. You and I have talked about this, Yeah. 0:00:23.920 --> 0:00:24.159 We have. 0:00:24.320 --> 0:00:32.000 And you know, it's a very interesting and controversial issue, 0:00:32.040 --> 0:00:34.360 right because a lot of people are for it, and 0:00:34.400 --> 0:00:37.040 they think we need affirmative action to make strides that 0:00:37.080 --> 0:00:40.720 we clearly haven't yet by market means. And there are 0:00:40.800 --> 0:00:43.840 those who say this is just using discrimination to reverse 0:00:43.880 --> 0:00:44.960 the ills of discrimination. 0:00:45.240 --> 0:00:48.000 So yeah, and Business Week did actually talk to different 0:00:48.040 --> 0:00:50.680 individuals about it, and some said, yep, I definitely benefited. 0:00:50.760 --> 0:00:52.479 Some said, you know what, I don't think it's a 0:00:52.479 --> 0:00:54.800 good thing. And these are people who you know, had 0:00:54.840 --> 0:00:58.880 access to affirmative action programs that actually did something for them. 0:00:58.920 --> 0:01:01.800 So I'm curious nixt's guess has to say and how 0:01:01.800 --> 0:01:04.200 it kind of plays into the financial arena. Let's head 0:01:04.200 --> 0:01:07.560 to Oakland, California, where we find a lumin Capital managing partner, 0:01:08.040 --> 0:01:11.800 Darren Dotson on zoom from Oakland. Darren, Nice to have 0:01:11.840 --> 0:01:13.800 you back with us. I do want to start with 0:01:13.840 --> 0:01:16.360 those Supreme Court decisions because it does feel like there's 0:01:16.400 --> 0:01:21.440 a wave making its way through the country. What do 0:01:21.480 --> 0:01:23.839 you think about this because companies are watching too, because 0:01:23.840 --> 0:01:25.960 they are caught in the crossfire of all of this, 0:01:26.120 --> 0:01:28.720 their initiatives that they put into place, and yet you 0:01:28.760 --> 0:01:32.320 see kind of from a legal perspective, the winds are changing. 0:01:34.520 --> 0:01:34.720 Yeah. 0:01:34.880 --> 0:01:38.960 Thanks, it's great. It's great to be back. And what 0:01:39.000 --> 0:01:43.520 I would say is that from our standpoint at a 0:01:43.560 --> 0:01:47.960 looming capital, a lot of the elements that we're looking 0:01:48.040 --> 0:01:50.760 at in terms of the waves of change within the 0:01:50.800 --> 0:01:57.480 country result back to the asset management business and the 0:01:57.520 --> 0:01:59.960 fact that only one point four percent of eighty two 0:02:00.000 --> 0:02:02.680 two trillion dollars in capital or managed by women and 0:02:02.720 --> 0:02:07.320 people of color. So we think that that's well believed. 0:02:07.320 --> 0:02:09.639 To repeat that's dat because I think a lot of 0:02:09.639 --> 0:02:12.480 people will be like, what that sounds crazy, but it's 0:02:12.480 --> 0:02:16.400 it's true true, So say it again. 0:02:16.000 --> 0:02:21.560 Percent of eighty two trillion dollars in capital managed by 0:02:21.840 --> 0:02:27.160 women and people of color. And you know, there's for 0:02:27.240 --> 0:02:32.840 those of us that love statistical analysis and market based strategies, 0:02:33.800 --> 0:02:38.400 that's in the context of massive, growing and multi trillion 0:02:38.440 --> 0:02:42.440 dollar black and Latin X buying power in the United States, 0:02:43.800 --> 0:02:49.359 and we've seen that there's an incredible opportunity to invest 0:02:49.400 --> 0:02:53.640 in companies and that one strange thing that we found 0:02:53.680 --> 0:02:56.840 in our research with Stanford was that the higher black 0:02:56.880 --> 0:03:01.000 managers performed, the less capital they get. People are more 0:03:01.040 --> 0:03:04.240 willing to leave money on the table the higher they perform. 0:03:05.320 --> 0:03:08.840 So I think there's some real deep analysis needed. 0:03:09.000 --> 0:03:11.560 What's up that? Is the world just racist? 0:03:13.560 --> 0:03:13.800 You know? 0:03:14.320 --> 0:03:20.919 I think that within the biases that asset allocators sign 0:03:21.040 --> 0:03:26.639 up for their fiduciary duty, but biases keep them from 0:03:26.720 --> 0:03:30.520 fulfilling their fiduciary duty to make the most money for 0:03:30.560 --> 0:03:34.440 their clients. And in this case, going past high performing 0:03:34.440 --> 0:03:37.920 black fund managers to invest in people that are familiar 0:03:38.320 --> 0:03:41.240 is a violation of their fiduciary duty, which is another 0:03:41.960 --> 0:03:47.480 legal requirement that those that manage money are supposed to 0:03:47.520 --> 0:03:49.800 live up to every day, and it happens if they 0:03:49.800 --> 0:03:54.360 don't work on these biases towards black people, women, Latin 0:03:54.480 --> 0:03:57.720 X people, then they're really not serving their investors in 0:03:57.800 --> 0:03:59.960 ways that they're signing up legally to do. 0:04:01.240 --> 0:04:03.880 Yeah, it's interesting. I'll never forget a phrase that Marcus 0:04:03.920 --> 0:04:07.440 Shaw on this program shared with us, you need to 0:04:07.520 --> 0:04:13.800 let your greed overcome your bias. His point was that 0:04:13.880 --> 0:04:15.600 you know, if you increase diversity, you're going to be 0:04:15.640 --> 0:04:18.000 able to increase your revenue and your your profits as well. 0:04:18.920 --> 0:04:25.080 Let's talk about building back Black Wall Street, the revitalization 0:04:25.400 --> 0:04:28.159 of Black Wall Street as opposed to starting a new 0:04:28.200 --> 0:04:33.120 one Black Wall Street, black banks. This is something that 0:04:33.200 --> 0:04:36.080 at one point had a lot of momentum and was destroyed. 0:04:38.240 --> 0:04:43.280 Yes, in terms of building black back Black Wall streets. 0:04:43.600 --> 0:04:48.440 More generally, there were a number of thriving communities across 0:04:48.480 --> 0:04:53.760 the country that were wealthy Black communities that were targeted 0:04:54.240 --> 0:05:00.000 with either interventions that were government focused in or revente 0:05:00.480 --> 0:05:05.320 in terms of building highways through communities, or targeted by 0:05:05.400 --> 0:05:09.120 racial violence, like in Tulsa a little more than one 0:05:09.160 --> 0:05:11.880 hundred years ago. But I think what I'd like to 0:05:11.960 --> 0:05:15.080 share is the idea of Black Wall Street as an 0:05:15.160 --> 0:05:19.440 idea and the tearing down of Black Wall Street as 0:05:19.480 --> 0:05:23.359 an idea, because I think that it's too easy to 0:05:23.480 --> 0:05:29.600 forget that those that built Wall Street were literally enslaved 0:05:30.279 --> 0:05:34.479 black folks, that New York, Boston and other areas of 0:05:34.520 --> 0:05:41.680 the country benefited from the financial system of slavery over time. 0:05:41.760 --> 0:05:44.960 And as we look at what Wall Street can do, 0:05:45.600 --> 0:05:49.039 we look at that stark number of one point four 0:05:49.080 --> 0:05:53.839 percent of eighty two trillion dollars in capital, despite women 0:05:53.839 --> 0:05:57.920 and people of color making up half of the country 0:05:59.320 --> 0:06:03.600 and magnificant amounts and growing amounts of the country, and 0:06:04.000 --> 0:06:08.600 we have to ask the question, why isn't the statistical 0:06:08.720 --> 0:06:11.520 probability that women in black people would be represented in 0:06:11.520 --> 0:06:15.599 the leadership of asset management, business or ownership that sort 0:06:15.600 --> 0:06:20.720 of represented as it might be statistically. So that's part 0:06:20.720 --> 0:06:23.159 of the questions that we ask with our research partners 0:06:23.200 --> 0:06:26.679 at Stanford Spark, who are some of the top folks 0:06:26.680 --> 0:06:31.039 in the world in social psychology professors at Stanford and 0:06:31.080 --> 0:06:35.320 those that are running with many firms around the country 0:06:35.360 --> 0:06:38.680 statistical analysis on portfolio construction. 0:06:40.160 --> 0:06:43.840 So Matt and I've talked about this a lot, and 0:06:45.120 --> 0:06:47.400 it's above and beyond the right thing to do, and 0:06:47.440 --> 0:06:49.440 I just but sometimes. 0:06:49.320 --> 0:06:51.880 You know, increasing gender and racial diversity. 0:06:52.040 --> 0:06:57.880 Correct, But returns often speak volumes and what can you 0:06:58.000 --> 0:07:01.839 share with us about pursuit doing this type of investing 0:07:01.920 --> 0:07:04.320 and what you guys are doing and what kind of 0:07:04.320 --> 0:07:05.920 returns you get for your investors. 0:07:07.839 --> 0:07:11.600 Yeah, what I'd say from a return perspective is that 0:07:13.200 --> 0:07:16.480 you know and this isn't new information. In fact, doctor 0:07:16.560 --> 0:07:20.760 Lisa Cook the only black woman in the one hundred 0:07:20.760 --> 0:07:23.440 and eight year history of the Federal Reserve Board. Her 0:07:23.520 --> 0:07:28.640 area of research as a professor is on terror and 0:07:29.280 --> 0:07:34.040 black value creation. She studies patents in black communities and 0:07:34.240 --> 0:07:39.080 equates the eleven hundred lost patents because of racial terror 0:07:39.080 --> 0:07:44.320 between nineteen hundred and roughly twenty ten as the value 0:07:44.560 --> 0:07:49.280 of a small European economy and lost GDP. So, I 0:07:49.320 --> 0:07:53.120 think the real message here is that so many in 0:07:53.120 --> 0:07:59.080 the asset management business are missing such value in a 0:07:59.200 --> 0:08:03.960 system that is pushing people away that could equate to 0:08:04.880 --> 0:08:09.440 returns or increase value in the magnitude of a small 0:08:09.440 --> 0:08:14.040 European country, boost to the GDP, which, certainly as inflation 0:08:14.160 --> 0:08:19.200 increases and we have lots of different challenges around interest 0:08:19.280 --> 0:08:22.600 rates in the United States, could be a large benefit 0:08:22.720 --> 0:08:24.000 to lift all boats. 0:08:24.720 --> 0:08:27.040 So what do you do, Darren on the ground in 0:08:27.160 --> 0:08:31.880 order to increase gender and racial diversity. 0:08:33.520 --> 0:08:37.040 Oh, we partner with the funds that we work with 0:08:37.280 --> 0:08:40.880 over a ten year period and we focus on giving 0:08:40.920 --> 0:08:45.000 them the tools to address bias within their hiring, promotion, 0:08:45.280 --> 0:08:50.559 retention and attraction of talent processes, within their board selection processes, 0:08:50.640 --> 0:08:54.320 and then within their investment decision making processes. And what 0:08:54.360 --> 0:08:56.160 we want them to do is find the best people 0:08:56.160 --> 0:08:59.280 in the world. I think to us that includes women 0:08:59.320 --> 0:09:01.200 and people of color or whereas to much of the 0:09:01.240 --> 0:09:06.480 financial markets, often high performing or better performing women people 0:09:06.520 --> 0:09:10.000 of color are left out of the conversation when it 0:09:10.040 --> 0:09:14.240 comes to hiring, which again results in one point four 0:09:14.280 --> 0:09:17.760 percent of eighty two trillion dollars in capital managed by 0:09:17.760 --> 0:09:21.320 women and people of color collectively. So something is going 0:09:21.360 --> 0:09:26.720 on beyond looking at financial decision making is certainly our thesis. 0:09:27.120 --> 0:09:29.320 Well, it's so good to check in with you once 0:09:29.360 --> 0:09:32.920 again and look forward to doing so in the future. Darren, 0:09:33.000 --> 0:09:35.120 Thank you so much and hearing about the work you 0:09:35.160 --> 0:09:36.959 guys are doing. Darren Dots and managing partner at a 0:09:37.000 --> 0:09:40.079 lumin And Capital on Zoom from Oakland, California, Oakland, its 0:09:40.080 --> 0:09:44.160 own city with you know, revitalization, going through a lot 0:09:45.400 --> 0:09:46.320 and coming around. 0:09:46.480 --> 0:09:51.240 Yeah, no, absolutely. It is interesting to see people like 0:09:51.360 --> 0:09:54.559 Darren who are investing in this and trying to make 0:09:54.600 --> 0:10:00.320 a difference with the money that they put into the market. 0:10:00.600 --> 0:10:02.200 You know, we talk with so many people who come 0:10:02.200 --> 0:10:04.120 on here with studies and the results of studies and 0:10:04.120 --> 0:10:06.120 we's actually doing are bad. A need to be changed, 0:10:06.120 --> 0:10:08.360 and he's actually putting his money where his mouth is. 0:10:08.320 --> 0:10:11.880 No, exactly and can see the payoff in certainly in 0:10:11.920 --> 0:10:14.000 terms of increasing and creating communities. 0:10:14.600 --> 0:10:18.480 This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Tim 0:10:18.480 --> 0:10:20.800 Stenebeck on Bloomberg Radio. 0:10:21.040 --> 0:10:24.200 Top of Mind continues to be what's going on inside Russia. 0:10:24.280 --> 0:10:26.800 We've talked about it from a couple of different angles, 0:10:26.800 --> 0:10:29.800 and we know President Vladimir Putin spoke for about six 0:10:29.920 --> 0:10:34.160 minutes a very short address to his nation, condemning leaders 0:10:34.160 --> 0:10:36.760 of the Wagner Mercenary Group as traders to Russia in 0:10:36.800 --> 0:10:40.160 a late night speech to his nation. Those were his 0:10:40.200 --> 0:10:43.040 first public comments since the mutiny that posed the most 0:10:43.040 --> 0:10:45.920 serious threat to his nearly quarter century rule. So let's 0:10:45.960 --> 0:10:48.400 get to it a little bit more analysis. Andy Brown, 0:10:48.480 --> 0:10:51.439 his partner at Brunswick Group. Former editorial director at Bloomberg 0:10:51.480 --> 0:10:54.400 New Economy. He spent three decades in Asias both China 0:10:54.520 --> 0:10:57.120 editor and a columnist for The Wall Street Journal. Today 0:10:57.120 --> 0:10:59.960 he leads the China Hub as a partner at Brunswick Group, 0:11:00.360 --> 0:11:03.240 and he is joining us on Zoom in New York City. Andy, 0:11:03.280 --> 0:11:06.559 good to have you here. Also with us is Mick mulroy, 0:11:06.640 --> 0:11:09.840 co founder of the Lobo Institute. They advise, consult teach 0:11:10.360 --> 0:11:13.120 on current and future conflicts and how to end them 0:11:13.200 --> 0:11:15.280 and really how to prevent them from happening again in 0:11:15.280 --> 0:11:18.000 the future. Andy, is, I've forgive me Mick is on 0:11:18.120 --> 0:11:21.959 Zoom on the phone. Excuse me for Montana. I'll get 0:11:22.000 --> 0:11:25.040 my zooms and phones right, Andy, Mick, thank you for 0:11:25.080 --> 0:11:28.920 being with Matt and me. I'm curious, Andy, what kind 0:11:28.960 --> 0:11:31.880 of calls you are getting, specifically on what's going on 0:11:32.000 --> 0:11:32.600 in Russia. 0:11:34.240 --> 0:11:37.480 Well, it's great to be here, Carole, Matt. Yes. 0:11:37.640 --> 0:11:41.319 So the hot off the press, Putin has come up 0:11:41.360 --> 0:11:46.320 with angry comments calling Pregosian and his mutiny as traitors 0:11:47.320 --> 0:11:52.040 and saying that the whole of Russian society has rallied 0:11:52.200 --> 0:11:56.280 against them, and saying that they only made their move 0:11:56.840 --> 0:12:02.120 to cover up battlefield failures and pray, all of which, 0:12:02.200 --> 0:12:08.199 of course is complete nonsense, demonstrated such by television pictures 0:12:08.240 --> 0:12:12.880 that Russians indeed the whole world, or over the weekend 0:12:13.000 --> 0:12:18.640 where we saw Wagner fights being enthusiastic we received in 0:12:18.800 --> 0:12:23.280 Rostal and almost no opposition. Has several of his columns 0:12:23.360 --> 0:12:26.400 swept north do within almost one hundred miles of the 0:12:26.440 --> 0:12:27.400 gates of Moscow. 0:12:28.360 --> 0:12:30.240 Yeah, I mean they were lined up to take selfies 0:12:30.280 --> 0:12:35.280 with Pregosi. Clearly this guy has serious support in Russia, 0:12:35.280 --> 0:12:39.199 at least in the areas that he occupied. Mick mulvaney, 0:12:39.240 --> 0:12:41.000 let me bring you in, mc mulroy, let me bring 0:12:41.040 --> 0:12:42.000 you into this and ask you. 0:12:43.040 --> 0:12:44.880 I know that was a flash in the past, well 0:12:45.600 --> 0:12:46.800 not so far, I know, I know. 0:12:47.160 --> 0:12:51.160 So Nick mulroy a very different person than McK mulvaney. 0:12:51.840 --> 0:12:55.440 Let me ask you your take on this in terms 0:12:55.480 --> 0:13:00.080 of how does Putin do without the Wagner group If 0:13:00.080 --> 0:13:03.120 they're responsible for pretty much everything that the Russians have 0:13:03.160 --> 0:13:08.120 gotten right in Ukraine, you know, from their perspective, if 0:13:08.120 --> 0:13:10.440 you were just up to the Russian army, you know, 0:13:11.080 --> 0:13:13.800 Ukraine may have pushed them out already. So can he 0:13:13.880 --> 0:13:14.680 do without them? 0:13:16.360 --> 0:13:18.160 So great to be with you guys, and certainly a 0:13:18.200 --> 0:13:20.840 lot going on today. That is a good question because 0:13:20.920 --> 0:13:25.120 from President Putin's speech two things really stuck out to me. 0:13:25.280 --> 0:13:28.520 One he acknowledged that they were a colossal threat, something 0:13:28.520 --> 0:13:32.120 that most totalitarian regimes don't like to admit. And two, 0:13:32.200 --> 0:13:35.360 he didn't really have any of the concessions that we 0:13:35.440 --> 0:13:38.440 thought he might based on whatever deal he made with Progotion. 0:13:39.160 --> 0:13:43.840 He did not announce that he would remove the Administra 0:13:43.880 --> 0:13:48.520 of Defense Shoigu or the Chief of Staff Grossamov, and 0:13:48.600 --> 0:13:52.280 he did reiterate that he wants Wagner or he insists 0:13:52.280 --> 0:13:54.520 that Wagner either lay down their arms or join the 0:13:54.600 --> 0:13:59.440 mod That is good for Ukraine and all those that 0:13:59.480 --> 0:14:02.880 support him. It is not necessarily good for Russian efforts 0:14:03.000 --> 0:14:08.120 in Ukraine because although it's composed mostly of war criminals, 0:14:08.200 --> 0:14:10.640 quite frankly, they are one of the few Russian forces 0:14:10.640 --> 0:14:12.839 that is willing to go on the offensive and has 0:14:12.880 --> 0:14:16.560 taken some of the more key terrain that Russians have 0:14:16.600 --> 0:14:19.560 taken within the last six months. So that is going 0:14:19.600 --> 0:14:21.600 to be to be determined of just what the fate 0:14:21.720 --> 0:14:25.480 of Progosion and the Wagner Group is at the end 0:14:25.520 --> 0:14:25.680 of it. 0:14:26.080 --> 0:14:31.040 So clearly Putin has to do something to sort of 0:14:31.200 --> 0:14:33.960 re cement his place and power. A lot of people 0:14:34.000 --> 0:14:38.120 are saying Progosion doesn't have long to live. But on 0:14:38.160 --> 0:14:41.840 the other hand, Progosian seems to be in a pretty 0:14:41.880 --> 0:14:45.480 good place, specifically if he goes rather than to Belarus, 0:14:45.560 --> 0:14:50.600 back to Rostov, which is a key way to maintain 0:14:50.640 --> 0:14:53.320 his leverage. Right it's the logistics hub for the fight 0:14:53.400 --> 0:14:56.080 in Ukraine that he's already shown he can occupy. What 0:14:56.120 --> 0:14:57.240 do you think his next move. 0:14:57.120 --> 0:15:00.120 Is, So that's a good question. I do think he 0:15:00.160 --> 0:15:02.640 should be looking over his shoulders and probably haven't. Somebody 0:15:02.680 --> 0:15:05.840 tastes his soup before he does. He has. He has 0:15:06.200 --> 0:15:10.240 definitely provoked the Russian establishment all the way to the top. 0:15:10.680 --> 0:15:16.440 Whether he is essentially under guardianship in Belarus is to 0:15:16.480 --> 0:15:20.840 be determined. But another factor to consider is the Wagner 0:15:20.880 --> 0:15:23.800 Group obviously operates in more places than Ukraine. There are 0:15:23.920 --> 0:15:28.840 throughout Africa, especially Sub Saharan Africa, and they make quite 0:15:28.840 --> 0:15:30.840 a lot of money, and I would assume the regime 0:15:30.920 --> 0:15:33.000 gets a portion of that. I don't know, but I 0:15:33.440 --> 0:15:36.560 would assume that is in direct cooperation with the regime. 0:15:36.640 --> 0:15:39.920 So it might be that he is precluded from potentially 0:15:40.000 --> 0:15:44.400 leaving Belarus for operating in Ukraine, but they might want 0:15:44.560 --> 0:15:48.040 him to keep his operations going in Central African Republic 0:15:48.080 --> 0:15:50.800 and now in Sudan, and maybe in other places where 0:15:51.240 --> 0:15:56.840 they not only operate, but they operate potentially at a profit. 0:15:56.600 --> 0:16:00.360 Incredibly profitably. Actually, Mick Matt brings up a question I 0:16:00.360 --> 0:16:04.160 want to throw to Andy. If Progosion is making reportedly 0:16:04.200 --> 0:16:07.640 he's making over a billion dollars in you know, just 0:16:07.680 --> 0:16:10.400 a few properties in Africa. I mean, the grand total 0:16:10.440 --> 0:16:12.760 may be much more than that, but he can't put 0:16:12.800 --> 0:16:17.000 that in a US bank or even keep it offshore anymore. 0:16:18.320 --> 0:16:24.480 What does a Russian criminal who uh you know isn't 0:16:24.560 --> 0:16:27.560 allowed to move around financially in the Western world do 0:16:27.680 --> 0:16:30.520 with his wealth? Does he have to, you know, kiss 0:16:30.560 --> 0:16:33.120 the ring of Vladimir Putin? Can he bring it to China? 0:16:33.240 --> 0:16:35.120 Can he bring it to India? 0:16:36.320 --> 0:16:38.840 First of all, I think he's interested probably right now, 0:16:38.920 --> 0:16:43.360 I'm all concerned about his life rather than preserving his wealth. 0:16:43.480 --> 0:16:47.720 He's a marked He's a marked man. He has punched 0:16:48.240 --> 0:16:51.000 Putin's or invincibility. 0:16:52.840 --> 0:16:57.000 Putin is no longer the strong man that he wants was, 0:16:57.040 --> 0:17:01.760 and everybody can see that. Here you have Pregosion who's 0:17:01.920 --> 0:17:07.240 challenged the Krambling, and he's not exactly got off scot free, 0:17:07.880 --> 0:17:10.680 but Putin appears on the weekend to have sort of 0:17:10.880 --> 0:17:11.920 led him off the hope. 0:17:12.240 --> 0:17:15.400 We don't know where he is. He may or may 0:17:15.480 --> 0:17:19.400 not be in yellar Us. Certainly the deal was broken 0:17:19.520 --> 0:17:20.439 by Lushenko. 0:17:21.200 --> 0:17:24.280 Uh and we don't actually know what the status quo 0:17:24.520 --> 0:17:30.199 is of his heavily battle hardened Wagner forces. 0:17:30.400 --> 0:17:32.840 They certainly haven't demobilized. 0:17:32.880 --> 0:17:35.439 In fact, all of the reports that I've been reading 0:17:35.440 --> 0:17:38.920 out of Russia day is that his recruitment centers across 0:17:39.640 --> 0:17:45.080 the country are still operating normally. So the the reason 0:17:45.200 --> 0:17:50.200 that Pregosian gave for launching them munity was that he 0:17:50.320 --> 0:17:55.280 said that the Russian military wanted to disband the Wagner forces. 0:17:55.320 --> 0:17:57.800 Clearly that has not happened. 0:17:58.920 --> 0:18:01.560 Andy our Bloomberg Big Take, which is our story that 0:18:01.600 --> 0:18:05.639 our editorial team deems that the world should read on 0:18:05.680 --> 0:18:07.879 the Bloomberg and at Bloomberg dot com. But it talks 0:18:07.920 --> 0:18:11.560 about the Russian president and basically facing this historic threat 0:18:11.560 --> 0:18:14.199 to his absolute grip on power in Russia. Do you 0:18:14.359 --> 0:18:17.399 think his years or his term is coming to an 0:18:17.520 --> 0:18:18.959 end as a result of this? 0:18:20.440 --> 0:18:24.080 You know, it's hard, it's it's hard to predict where 0:18:24.080 --> 0:18:27.080 it's where this is going to go. These are early days, 0:18:27.119 --> 0:18:32.720 and everything is very confused right now. Uh but certain 0:18:32.920 --> 0:18:36.520 but certainly, as I say, his aura of power has 0:18:36.560 --> 0:18:40.320 been has been badly damaged. Let's see what happens to 0:18:40.520 --> 0:18:43.800 Let's see what happens to progression. The other very interesting 0:18:43.840 --> 0:18:47.760 thing about the weekend, uh puncture to what Poutings said 0:18:47.800 --> 0:18:51.480 about the whole country rallying against him when this thing 0:18:51.520 --> 0:18:54.919 first started, and remember, we didn't know that if it 0:18:54.960 --> 0:18:58.439 was a mutiny, whether it was a coup, and nobody 0:18:58.440 --> 0:19:02.399 in Russia knew that either. And the Russian elites, the 0:19:02.440 --> 0:19:07.239 ones that are closest to Putin, failed. 0:19:06.720 --> 0:19:10.600 To speak up for it. They held their silence. 0:19:11.119 --> 0:19:14.479 They were waiting to see very clearly which way the 0:19:14.520 --> 0:19:18.679 winds were going to blow, whether the mutiny as it 0:19:18.840 --> 0:19:21.199 was back then, a whop as it seemed to be, 0:19:21.880 --> 0:19:23.919 would be successful or not. 0:19:24.359 --> 0:19:26.679 So he's clearly Putin has. 0:19:26.560 --> 0:19:30.200 Clearly lost a lot of his support, or at least 0:19:30.280 --> 0:19:34.320 perceptions of support, in parts of Russian society and the 0:19:34.320 --> 0:19:36.440 security forces that really matter. 0:19:36.840 --> 0:19:41.360 Make you agree in terms of President Putin's standing in his. 0:19:41.400 --> 0:19:46.520 Country, yes, I do. I would add also that it's 0:19:46.600 --> 0:19:51.439 become very clear that his decision to invade Ukraine was 0:19:51.480 --> 0:19:56.320 a significant strategic mistake. And you have Progosion, one of 0:19:56.359 --> 0:19:59.359 the main fighters there, acknowledging and he can't unring that 0:19:59.440 --> 0:20:02.080 bell that the Russian people relied to there was no 0:20:02.200 --> 0:20:05.280 NATO expansion there is now, but there wasn't before, and 0:20:05.359 --> 0:20:07.600 that there was no threat to ethnic Russians in Ukraine. 0:20:07.640 --> 0:20:09.920 He already said that, And I think the Russian people 0:20:09.960 --> 0:20:11.560 are going to hear that, and they're going to hear 0:20:11.560 --> 0:20:14.840 it more often. And I think that and the fact 0:20:14.880 --> 0:20:19.960 that that Russia is in effect losing what they wanted 0:20:20.000 --> 0:20:23.639 to do in Ukraine, and most dictators cannot survive a 0:20:23.720 --> 0:20:26.760 loss like that, and certainly when he looks as weak 0:20:26.800 --> 0:20:29.960 as he does, acknowledging that this was a colossal, colossal 0:20:30.040 --> 0:20:32.160 threat to him from the Bogner group. 0:20:32.240 --> 0:20:36.520 Yeah, certainly, you think you'd think that Russian mothers will 0:20:36.520 --> 0:20:40.240 consider pregosians word when they hear that their sons have died, 0:20:40.320 --> 0:20:43.159 and how many you know? Now, I think more than 0:20:43.200 --> 0:20:47.720 a couple of hundred thousand Russians have died in Ukraine. Mick, 0:20:47.880 --> 0:20:51.520 you you know, from your years at the CIA, from 0:20:51.560 --> 0:20:55.919 your years at the Department of Defense, what do you 0:20:56.160 --> 0:20:59.000 think we are hoping for? What do you think America 0:20:59.119 --> 0:21:02.240 is hoping for in terms of a coup, Because it 0:21:02.359 --> 0:21:04.680 seemed on Friday like, oh, coup, that would be great. 0:21:04.760 --> 0:21:07.320 We want Putin out of power, but we it seems 0:21:07.400 --> 0:21:10.119 now like, well, we definitely don't want pregotion in power. 0:21:10.240 --> 0:21:13.240 So let's who else is out there that could challenge 0:21:13.280 --> 0:21:14.159 Vladimir Putin? 0:21:15.800 --> 0:21:17.840 So to start with, I do not think and I 0:21:17.840 --> 0:21:20.440 don't know. I'm out of government, but I do not 0:21:20.560 --> 0:21:22.439 think the US had anything to do with this. I 0:21:22.480 --> 0:21:26.080 don't see a logical reason why they would want to replace, 0:21:26.680 --> 0:21:31.080 you know, Vladimir Putin with progosion. Progosion is actively called 0:21:31.119 --> 0:21:33.240 for the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine in 0:21:33.280 --> 0:21:35.960 the past, and he's quite frankly, very unstable. So I 0:21:36.000 --> 0:21:39.920 don't see that I would agree with the White House 0:21:40.040 --> 0:21:42.800 position that they would not have any reason to promote that. 0:21:43.440 --> 0:21:46.880 Who would be a suitable alternative to Putin? I don't 0:21:46.880 --> 0:21:49.440 know right now, but I guarantee you. The intelligence community 0:21:49.520 --> 0:21:52.240 is assessing just that and trying to find out who 0:21:52.359 --> 0:21:54.680 may not that we would push for any of them, 0:21:54.680 --> 0:21:57.720 because we're not. Our policy is not regime change is Rasia, 0:21:57.760 --> 0:22:00.880 but to be able to get ahead of anybody who 0:22:00.920 --> 0:22:03.880 may potentially take a run at Putin. I just don't 0:22:03.880 --> 0:22:04.919 know who that person would be. 0:22:05.119 --> 0:22:06.760 Andy, come on in on this if you have any 0:22:06.760 --> 0:22:08.679 thoughts about who might take over for Putin. But I 0:22:08.680 --> 0:22:10.800 also want to throw China into this. This is something 0:22:10.880 --> 0:22:12.879 you know, you know so much about China and how 0:22:12.920 --> 0:22:16.879 they lead. We've kind of laughed, but not laughed a 0:22:16.920 --> 0:22:19.399 little bit about the Chinese Foreign Ministry coming out with 0:22:19.400 --> 0:22:22.399 a statement describing the weekends events in Russia as Moscow's 0:22:22.480 --> 0:22:25.960 internal affairs, something they often say about their own internal affairs. 0:22:26.280 --> 0:22:27.120 But how do you. 0:22:27.080 --> 0:22:30.320 Think about the role of China and what happens here 0:22:30.520 --> 0:22:33.919 in Russia specifically, what do we kind of need to 0:22:34.440 --> 0:22:35.720 kind of have top of mind here? 0:22:36.359 --> 0:22:36.600 Well? 0:22:36.920 --> 0:22:39.119 I think that the Chinese are looking at this with 0:22:39.840 --> 0:22:43.960 a mixture of alarm, but also a certain amount of 0:22:44.200 --> 0:22:49.760 small self satisfaction and the alarm because they're worried, They're 0:22:49.800 --> 0:22:53.639 concerned that they have made a very bad bet on 0:22:53.800 --> 0:23:01.040 gladymir Putin. Putin is to Jim King's quote unquote best friend. 0:23:01.119 --> 0:23:05.120 They've met forty odd times, and you know, they're quite 0:23:05.160 --> 0:23:08.920 similar figures in a way. They both promote a resentful 0:23:09.000 --> 0:23:12.960 form of nationalism. They're both on a mission to revive 0:23:13.119 --> 0:23:17.879 the historic glories of their respective countries, and they believe 0:23:17.920 --> 0:23:20.400 that the United States stands in the way. 0:23:21.160 --> 0:23:24.320 And they formed an axis, an east. 0:23:24.040 --> 0:23:29.080 West axis to push back against US power and to 0:23:29.200 --> 0:23:33.719 revise the US led global order. And the anchor of 0:23:33.760 --> 0:23:39.200 that western axis of Vladimir Putin is looking decidedly shapy 0:23:40.000 --> 0:23:43.119 right now, and the project to push back against US 0:23:43.160 --> 0:23:47.879 power is becoming bobbed down in the bloodstot battlefields of Ukraine. 0:23:48.600 --> 0:23:52.720 Smart self satisfaction, because I think such thing is looking 0:23:52.760 --> 0:23:58.920 at this and saying this would never happen in China. 0:23:58.960 --> 0:24:03.200 We would never I would never allow control of China 0:24:03.440 --> 0:24:05.400 to slip away in this way. 0:24:05.480 --> 0:24:06.480 In fact, the. 0:24:06.520 --> 0:24:08.960