WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: David Rubenstein & Starbucks

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Single best idea on

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<v Speaker 1>a day I have never seen. There's no other way

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<v Speaker 1>to put it. CEOs come and go. When everybody wants

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<v Speaker 1>to say to me, when did you lose money? This

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<v Speaker 1>is not funny. There was a CEO of a company

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<v Speaker 1>I owned who had a significant coronary event at a

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<v Speaker 1>small airport in Chicago, and to be honest, I sort

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<v Speaker 1>of sold every share the day of that tragedy at

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<v Speaker 1>O'Hare because six months later the company was in massive

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<v Speaker 1>disarray and I'm not going to mince words. I lost

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<v Speaker 1>some money, to say the least. There are times where

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<v Speaker 1>you see a shock of a CEO impact, and so

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<v Speaker 1>the Chipotle CEO down fourteen percent, goes over to Starbucks

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<v Speaker 1>up fourteen percent. Whatever the number is, up twenty percent.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's use the word number twenty So you have a

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<v Speaker 1>thirty four percent swing in stock performance off a CEO.

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<v Speaker 1>Jody Lurie of Bloomberg Intelligence is expert on this, and

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<v Speaker 1>she knows when there's activist shareholders involved debt beware.

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<v Speaker 2>We are still sort of trying to figure it out.

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<v Speaker 2>But usually when there's activists investor involved, you don't really

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<v Speaker 2>think that's a good thing for bondholders. The company worked

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<v Speaker 2>really hard to get leveraged down to three times and

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<v Speaker 2>actually below three times, but now the expectations are that

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<v Speaker 2>leverage is going to hit at three point four to

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<v Speaker 2>three point five times by the end of their fiscal year,

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<v Speaker 2>which in September, and that's partially because of margins. But

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<v Speaker 2>I think we do have that sense that that twenty

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<v Speaker 2>billion dollars that they plan to give back to shareholders

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<v Speaker 2>over the next few years, it might it might get

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<v Speaker 2>ratcheted up, or they might get more aggressive in other ways,

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<v Speaker 2>or they might look to spin offs. I mean, who

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<v Speaker 2>knows what's on the table. All we know is that

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<v Speaker 2>there might be a potential additional board member from Elliott Management.

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<v Speaker 2>There might be all sorts of changes that changes from

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<v Speaker 2>that stable sort of cash generating Starbucks that we know.

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<v Speaker 1>Jody Leuri, Bloomberg Intelligence, and Starbucks' story clearly to unfold

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<v Speaker 1>in the coming days. On the way that the average

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<v Speaker 1>cost the Capitol screen, the WACC screen in the Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>twenty two percent debt, don't hold into that, but I

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<v Speaker 1>think that's what the statistic is. Twenty two percent. One

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<v Speaker 1>of the great joys of our wonderful studios with their glasses.

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<v Speaker 1>People wander by and I'll usually try to beg them

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<v Speaker 1>to come in, and many people say no, they don't

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<v Speaker 1>want to talk to me. We are honored today that

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<v Speaker 1>Rubinstein would stop by for a few precious moments. Of course,

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<v Speaker 1>with the Carlisle Group his ownership of the Baltimore Orioles

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<v Speaker 1>here first. David Rubinstein on the travails of private equity.

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<v Speaker 3>Private equity has been around for a while. It's taken

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<v Speaker 3>longer to sell assets than it normally does. But as

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<v Speaker 3>interest rates come down, almost certainly they'll come down in September.

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<v Speaker 3>I think it'll make it easier because the gap between

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<v Speaker 3>buyers and sellers will, I think, be reduced, and buyers

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<v Speaker 3>can afford to buy things more readily than they could

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<v Speaker 3>when higher interest rates were part of the situation. So

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<v Speaker 3>I think private equity is okay. I wouldn't cry for

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<v Speaker 3>private equity. I think that private credit has also grown

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<v Speaker 3>very large and become a very important part of the

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<v Speaker 3>private investment world. But private equity is still a very

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<v Speaker 3>important part of the global investment scene, and I don't

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<v Speaker 3>think it's going to change very much.

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<v Speaker 1>David Rubinstein and private equity and to see the Vicks

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<v Speaker 1>folks just to review this under twenty today to a

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<v Speaker 1>nineteen level as we tape here at roughly ten am

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<v Speaker 1>on Tuesday morning. But the ride of the last number

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<v Speaker 1>of weeks, the resiliency of this market is both David

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<v Speaker 1>Rubinstein and Barry Rudtholtz talked about, is just shocking to

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<v Speaker 1>see us go from a Lehman thirty angst or the

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<v Speaker 1>panic of last Monday, that Paul Sweeney report of a

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<v Speaker 1>fifty something meter VIX and we're now down under twenty

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<v Speaker 1>with a nineteen print in the vicinity of up one

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<v Speaker 1>percent for the NASDAK even one and a half percent

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<v Speaker 1>for the Nasdaq. Of course, with David Rubinstein here, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, I'm sorry. The Chicago White Sox absolutely crushed

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<v Speaker 1>the dreaded Yankees. David Rubinstein and the dreaded Yankees of

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<v Speaker 1>the Bronx in the Jewel of Camden Yards.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, the Oriols and the Yankees have been chocking for

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<v Speaker 3>first place in America in the East for most of

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<v Speaker 3>the season. They both have excellent teams. We'll just have

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<v Speaker 3>to see who does well in September and the remainder of

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<v Speaker 3>August but I think both of those teams are likely

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<v Speaker 3>to be in the playoffs. In my view, Yankees have

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<v Speaker 3>some extraordinary players in the Yanks, and they also have

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<v Speaker 3>some extraordinary players.

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<v Speaker 1>Their ability to lose to the Chicago White Sox. I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know if your team is briefed you, but the

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<v Speaker 1>White Sox snuck by the Yankees last night. That would

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<v Speaker 1>never happen to the Baltimore Orioles.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, we've lost some games, and I didn't think we

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<v Speaker 3>would lose. But on the whole, oh, I would say

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<v Speaker 3>the Orioles and the Yankees are really in good shape

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<v Speaker 3>for the playoffs. And I don't know who's gonna win,

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<v Speaker 3>but I hope the Oriols do.

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<v Speaker 1>Of course, he's been doing this for a cup of coffee,

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<v Speaker 1>a cup of Senka, or a cup of Starbucks for

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<v Speaker 1>that matter. David Rubinstein, grizzled, owner of the Baltimore Orioles.

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<v Speaker 1>He's got the thing. He's got it down cold. It's

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<v Speaker 1>like he's out there, you know, outside the dugout with

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<v Speaker 1>a mic and his mouth saying, you know, well, we

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<v Speaker 1>saw the ball. I could see the ball big today.

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<v Speaker 1>It was great, you know, David Rubins, I thank you

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<v Speaker 1>so much. For time. Today they're in private equity in

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<v Speaker 1>the Baltimore Orioles. John Ferrell emailed me to these says,

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<v Speaker 1>what are you doing on Instagram? Here's what we're doing, folks.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm trying to do the social media I'm learning, and

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<v Speaker 1>trust me, it's been painful. But what we're doing is

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<v Speaker 1>all based on YouTube. Their impact around the world and

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<v Speaker 1>particularly in Asia, from India on over up from Singapore

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<v Speaker 1>to Japan. We are thunderstruck by the international response are

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<v Speaker 1>getting and we're building that out. It's on Instagram we're starting.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm learning. I don't pretend to have all the answers there,

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<v Speaker 1>that's for sure, but don't forget we are on YouTube.

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<v Speaker 1>You go to YouTube, you subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts. Can't

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<v Speaker 1>say enough. That's the most important thing you can do

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<v Speaker 1>to keep our conversations going on Apple podcasts single best

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<v Speaker 1>I do