1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:14,400 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Single best idea on 2 00:00:14,440 --> 00:00:16,800 Speaker 1: a day I have never seen. There's no other way 3 00:00:16,840 --> 00:00:21,840 Speaker 1: to put it. CEOs come and go. When everybody wants 4 00:00:21,840 --> 00:00:25,200 Speaker 1: to say to me, when did you lose money? This 5 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:28,200 Speaker 1: is not funny. There was a CEO of a company 6 00:00:28,240 --> 00:00:32,600 Speaker 1: I owned who had a significant coronary event at a 7 00:00:32,640 --> 00:00:36,280 Speaker 1: small airport in Chicago, and to be honest, I sort 8 00:00:36,280 --> 00:00:40,760 Speaker 1: of sold every share the day of that tragedy at 9 00:00:40,760 --> 00:00:44,320 Speaker 1: O'Hare because six months later the company was in massive 10 00:00:44,320 --> 00:00:46,440 Speaker 1: disarray and I'm not going to mince words. I lost 11 00:00:46,479 --> 00:00:51,720 Speaker 1: some money, to say the least. There are times where 12 00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:56,000 Speaker 1: you see a shock of a CEO impact, and so 13 00:00:56,360 --> 00:01:02,600 Speaker 1: the Chipotle CEO down fourteen percent, goes over to Starbucks 14 00:01:03,440 --> 00:01:06,240 Speaker 1: up fourteen percent. Whatever the number is, up twenty percent. 15 00:01:06,360 --> 00:01:08,720 Speaker 1: Let's use the word number twenty So you have a 16 00:01:08,760 --> 00:01:13,760 Speaker 1: thirty four percent swing in stock performance off a CEO. 17 00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:18,120 Speaker 1: Jody Lurie of Bloomberg Intelligence is expert on this, and 18 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:23,960 Speaker 1: she knows when there's activist shareholders involved debt beware. 19 00:01:24,600 --> 00:01:27,360 Speaker 2: We are still sort of trying to figure it out. 20 00:01:27,400 --> 00:01:31,440 Speaker 2: But usually when there's activists investor involved, you don't really 21 00:01:31,480 --> 00:01:34,199 Speaker 2: think that's a good thing for bondholders. The company worked 22 00:01:34,240 --> 00:01:36,640 Speaker 2: really hard to get leveraged down to three times and 23 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:40,440 Speaker 2: actually below three times, but now the expectations are that 24 00:01:40,560 --> 00:01:42,840 Speaker 2: leverage is going to hit at three point four to 25 00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:45,200 Speaker 2: three point five times by the end of their fiscal year, 26 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:48,840 Speaker 2: which in September, and that's partially because of margins. But 27 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:52,000 Speaker 2: I think we do have that sense that that twenty 28 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:54,440 Speaker 2: billion dollars that they plan to give back to shareholders 29 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:56,960 Speaker 2: over the next few years, it might it might get 30 00:01:57,000 --> 00:01:59,559 Speaker 2: ratcheted up, or they might get more aggressive in other ways, 31 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:01,400 Speaker 2: or they might look to spin offs. I mean, who 32 00:02:01,440 --> 00:02:03,600 Speaker 2: knows what's on the table. All we know is that 33 00:02:03,640 --> 00:02:07,320 Speaker 2: there might be a potential additional board member from Elliott Management. 34 00:02:07,640 --> 00:02:11,119 Speaker 2: There might be all sorts of changes that changes from 35 00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:13,919 Speaker 2: that stable sort of cash generating Starbucks that we know. 36 00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:18,480 Speaker 1: Jody Leuri, Bloomberg Intelligence, and Starbucks' story clearly to unfold 37 00:02:18,480 --> 00:02:20,440 Speaker 1: in the coming days. On the way that the average 38 00:02:20,480 --> 00:02:23,600 Speaker 1: cost the Capitol screen, the WACC screen in the Bloomberg 39 00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:27,720 Speaker 1: twenty two percent debt, don't hold into that, but I 40 00:02:27,720 --> 00:02:30,240 Speaker 1: think that's what the statistic is. Twenty two percent. One 41 00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:33,840 Speaker 1: of the great joys of our wonderful studios with their glasses. 42 00:02:33,880 --> 00:02:37,480 Speaker 1: People wander by and I'll usually try to beg them 43 00:02:37,520 --> 00:02:41,480 Speaker 1: to come in, and many people say no, they don't 44 00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:43,560 Speaker 1: want to talk to me. We are honored today that 45 00:02:44,280 --> 00:02:48,080 Speaker 1: Rubinstein would stop by for a few precious moments. Of course, 46 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:51,760 Speaker 1: with the Carlisle Group his ownership of the Baltimore Orioles 47 00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:56,240 Speaker 1: here first. David Rubinstein on the travails of private equity. 48 00:02:56,400 --> 00:02:59,160 Speaker 3: Private equity has been around for a while. It's taken 49 00:02:59,240 --> 00:03:03,040 Speaker 3: longer to sell assets than it normally does. But as 50 00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:06,080 Speaker 3: interest rates come down, almost certainly they'll come down in September. 51 00:03:06,360 --> 00:03:08,560 Speaker 3: I think it'll make it easier because the gap between 52 00:03:08,560 --> 00:03:11,359 Speaker 3: buyers and sellers will, I think, be reduced, and buyers 53 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:13,400 Speaker 3: can afford to buy things more readily than they could 54 00:03:13,520 --> 00:03:17,040 Speaker 3: when higher interest rates were part of the situation. So 55 00:03:17,120 --> 00:03:19,400 Speaker 3: I think private equity is okay. I wouldn't cry for 56 00:03:19,440 --> 00:03:24,040 Speaker 3: private equity. I think that private credit has also grown 57 00:03:24,200 --> 00:03:26,280 Speaker 3: very large and become a very important part of the 58 00:03:26,480 --> 00:03:29,359 Speaker 3: private investment world. But private equity is still a very 59 00:03:29,360 --> 00:03:31,839 Speaker 3: important part of the global investment scene, and I don't 60 00:03:31,840 --> 00:03:33,200 Speaker 3: think it's going to change very much. 61 00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:36,320 Speaker 1: David Rubinstein and private equity and to see the Vicks 62 00:03:36,360 --> 00:03:38,840 Speaker 1: folks just to review this under twenty today to a 63 00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:42,600 Speaker 1: nineteen level as we tape here at roughly ten am 64 00:03:43,240 --> 00:03:47,120 Speaker 1: on Tuesday morning. But the ride of the last number 65 00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:49,800 Speaker 1: of weeks, the resiliency of this market is both David 66 00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:53,440 Speaker 1: Rubinstein and Barry Rudtholtz talked about, is just shocking to 67 00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:56,680 Speaker 1: see us go from a Lehman thirty angst or the 68 00:03:56,720 --> 00:04:00,720 Speaker 1: panic of last Monday, that Paul Sweeney report of a 69 00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:04,560 Speaker 1: fifty something meter VIX and we're now down under twenty 70 00:04:04,560 --> 00:04:07,600 Speaker 1: with a nineteen print in the vicinity of up one 71 00:04:07,640 --> 00:04:10,040 Speaker 1: percent for the NASDAK even one and a half percent 72 00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:14,960 Speaker 1: for the Nasdaq. Of course, with David Rubinstein here, you know, 73 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:19,839 Speaker 1: I mean, I'm sorry. The Chicago White Sox absolutely crushed 74 00:04:20,040 --> 00:04:24,320 Speaker 1: the dreaded Yankees. David Rubinstein and the dreaded Yankees of 75 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:28,039 Speaker 1: the Bronx in the Jewel of Camden Yards. 76 00:04:28,320 --> 00:04:30,520 Speaker 3: Well, the Oriols and the Yankees have been chocking for 77 00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:32,400 Speaker 3: first place in America in the East for most of 78 00:04:32,440 --> 00:04:35,839 Speaker 3: the season. They both have excellent teams. We'll just have 79 00:04:35,920 --> 00:04:39,359 Speaker 3: to see who does well in September and the remainder of 80 00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:42,440 Speaker 3: August but I think both of those teams are likely 81 00:04:42,440 --> 00:04:44,479 Speaker 3: to be in the playoffs. In my view, Yankees have 82 00:04:44,520 --> 00:04:46,240 Speaker 3: some extraordinary players in the Yanks, and they also have 83 00:04:46,279 --> 00:04:47,320 Speaker 3: some extraordinary players. 84 00:04:47,440 --> 00:04:49,920 Speaker 1: Their ability to lose to the Chicago White Sox. I 85 00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:52,159 Speaker 1: don't know if your team is briefed you, but the 86 00:04:52,200 --> 00:04:54,800 Speaker 1: White Sox snuck by the Yankees last night. That would 87 00:04:54,839 --> 00:04:56,840 Speaker 1: never happen to the Baltimore Orioles. 88 00:04:57,120 --> 00:04:58,880 Speaker 3: Well, we've lost some games, and I didn't think we 89 00:04:58,880 --> 00:05:00,800 Speaker 3: would lose. But on the whole, oh, I would say 90 00:05:00,839 --> 00:05:03,240 Speaker 3: the Orioles and the Yankees are really in good shape 91 00:05:03,279 --> 00:05:05,560 Speaker 3: for the playoffs. And I don't know who's gonna win, 92 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:06,560 Speaker 3: but I hope the Oriols do. 93 00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:09,440 Speaker 1: Of course, he's been doing this for a cup of coffee, 94 00:05:09,480 --> 00:05:12,599 Speaker 1: a cup of Senka, or a cup of Starbucks for 95 00:05:12,680 --> 00:05:17,279 Speaker 1: that matter. David Rubinstein, grizzled, owner of the Baltimore Orioles. 96 00:05:17,520 --> 00:05:19,440 Speaker 1: He's got the thing. He's got it down cold. It's 97 00:05:19,440 --> 00:05:21,359 Speaker 1: like he's out there, you know, outside the dugout with 98 00:05:21,400 --> 00:05:23,880 Speaker 1: a mic and his mouth saying, you know, well, we 99 00:05:24,440 --> 00:05:26,960 Speaker 1: saw the ball. I could see the ball big today. 100 00:05:26,680 --> 00:05:29,839 Speaker 1: It was great, you know, David Rubins, I thank you 101 00:05:29,880 --> 00:05:32,560 Speaker 1: so much. For time. Today they're in private equity in 102 00:05:32,640 --> 00:05:36,520 Speaker 1: the Baltimore Orioles. John Ferrell emailed me to these says, 103 00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:39,400 Speaker 1: what are you doing on Instagram? Here's what we're doing, folks. 104 00:05:39,440 --> 00:05:42,400 Speaker 1: I'm trying to do the social media I'm learning, and 105 00:05:42,440 --> 00:05:45,880 Speaker 1: trust me, it's been painful. But what we're doing is 106 00:05:46,120 --> 00:05:50,880 Speaker 1: all based on YouTube. Their impact around the world and 107 00:05:50,960 --> 00:05:55,640 Speaker 1: particularly in Asia, from India on over up from Singapore 108 00:05:55,760 --> 00:06:00,200 Speaker 1: to Japan. We are thunderstruck by the international response are 109 00:06:00,200 --> 00:06:03,719 Speaker 1: getting and we're building that out. It's on Instagram we're starting. 110 00:06:03,720 --> 00:06:06,440 Speaker 1: I'm learning. I don't pretend to have all the answers there, 111 00:06:06,480 --> 00:06:10,120 Speaker 1: that's for sure, but don't forget we are on YouTube. 112 00:06:10,240 --> 00:06:14,400 Speaker 1: You go to YouTube, you subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts. Can't 113 00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:16,440 Speaker 1: say enough. That's the most important thing you can do 114 00:06:16,560 --> 00:06:21,119 Speaker 1: to keep our conversations going on Apple podcasts single best 115 00:06:21,320 --> 00:06:21,520 Speaker 1: I do