WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2020 Week 2 NFL Guessing Lines Show with Chris Andrews 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:12.680 Check it on Man Now Down Man, Good Monday Morning, 0:00:12.760 --> 0:00:14.760 Tude and take numbers. Getting right here a Visa the 0:00:14.800 --> 0:00:17.479 Sports Spending Network series SEXM Channel two, O four, Visa 0:00:17.520 --> 0:00:21.239 dot Com, Visa app, Fubo Sling and Game Plus Gil 0:00:21.280 --> 0:00:25.279 Alexander Jason Cohn Producer number seven alongside Good Morning to Jason, 0:00:25.320 --> 0:00:28.320 How you doing? Good morning Gil. UH. For those who 0:00:28.360 --> 0:00:31.040 are just landing on this show for the first time. 0:00:31.080 --> 0:00:34.280 On a Monday during football season, we do a little 0:00:34.320 --> 0:00:38.640 something here called Guessing Lines. UH. It is a tribute 0:00:39.000 --> 0:00:41.920 to the old Stardust radio show featuring the great Roxy 0:00:42.000 --> 0:00:45.920 Rocksborough UH. And this is an exercise designed to extract 0:00:46.120 --> 0:00:49.559 value from the upcoming week's NFL lines. Because I will 0:00:49.600 --> 0:00:51.559 put myself out there. I have been in a cocoon 0:00:51.640 --> 0:00:54.240 since yesterday. I do not know any of the lines 0:00:54.320 --> 0:00:56.360 for a week two and I Am going to guess 0:00:56.360 --> 0:00:59.240 what they are. Chrissie Andrews Mysa who runs the South 0:00:59.240 --> 0:01:01.960 Point Hotel cause Sports Book is going to produce the matchup. 0:01:02.680 --> 0:01:04.319 I will guess what I think the line should be. 0:01:04.360 --> 0:01:06.840 We'll talk about yesterday's games, of course in the process, 0:01:07.280 --> 0:01:09.760 and then he'll tell me what he'll be posting here 0:01:09.760 --> 0:01:12.640 at the South Point Hotel Casino. That's how this works. 0:01:13.160 --> 0:01:15.840 I will put myself out there. I will be incredibly 0:01:15.880 --> 0:01:18.520 wrong on some of these lines inevitably, and I will 0:01:18.600 --> 0:01:21.039 let the hate wash over me. How about that? And 0:01:21.080 --> 0:01:23.480 with that said, let's bring him in Chris Andrews. Everybody. 0:01:23.480 --> 0:01:27.479 Good morning to you, Chrissie. How you doing. I'm doing great, 0:01:27.560 --> 0:01:30.920 jolly and I could see something's never change. You're still 0:01:30.959 --> 0:01:33.760 pulling the more Murphy Brown act with a new producer 0:01:33.800 --> 0:01:38.400 every week. And yes that's true sports doing that. Thanks 0:01:38.400 --> 0:01:44.560 for noticing. Yeah, but yeah, I listen that this is 0:01:44.760 --> 0:01:47.840 uh like my favorite two hours of the week, talking 0:01:47.840 --> 0:01:50.960 to you on Monday mornings. We've been doing this for 0:01:51.040 --> 0:01:54.120 many years now, so I'm looking forward to, uh, you know, 0:01:54.160 --> 0:01:56.840 another another year. We know we're getting started. You know, 0:01:56.920 --> 0:01:59.120 I hope we can standish, is all I keep saying. Yeah, 0:01:59.160 --> 0:02:01.160 I agree with that, and mind to my favorite two 0:02:01.160 --> 0:02:03.360 hours of the week as well. And for those looking 0:02:03.400 --> 0:02:06.000 for you know, we will touch on other sports here 0:02:06.080 --> 0:02:09.280 briefly today, but really we dive back into the uh 0:02:09.400 --> 0:02:12.160 the mix of sports and what a day across sports yesterday. 0:02:12.200 --> 0:02:14.200 We'll touch on that briefly, but really we'll get back 0:02:14.200 --> 0:02:18.000 in earnest on it tomorrow. Uh, let us begin without 0:02:18.040 --> 0:02:20.000 further ado, because we have a full slate to get 0:02:20.040 --> 0:02:24.600 to and we'll need all the time. So without further ado, Chris, Uh, 0:02:24.680 --> 0:02:27.079 let us begin. You provide the I. I suppose we're 0:02:27.080 --> 0:02:31.600 starting with a Thursday night matchup and we'll go from there. Yeah, 0:02:31.639 --> 0:02:35.240 Thursday night, we got the Cincinnati Bengals at the Cleveland 0:02:35.240 --> 0:02:38.639 Brown Cincinnati at Cleveland. Boy, we're starting with a real 0:02:38.639 --> 0:02:43.840 barnburn on Thursday, week two. Anyway, last week's UH, you 0:02:43.880 --> 0:02:46.480 know game aside, all right, So Cincinnati coming off their 0:02:46.560 --> 0:02:50.160 loss to the l A Chargers, a game they were 0:02:50.200 --> 0:02:53.680 in every position to win at the end yesterday, UH 0:02:53.800 --> 0:02:56.080 couldn't get it done. There was an offensive p I 0:02:56.280 --> 0:02:59.320 called late in the game on the final uh play, 0:02:59.320 --> 0:03:01.800 and then Randy Bullock. I don't know if he pulled 0:03:01.800 --> 0:03:04.280 a calf muscle or if he or if he only 0:03:04.400 --> 0:03:07.040 feigned pulling it after he missed what could have been 0:03:07.040 --> 0:03:09.320 a game tying field goals at the end of that 0:03:09.360 --> 0:03:12.400 game against the Chargers. But the Bengals lose. Joe Burrow 0:03:12.440 --> 0:03:15.040 and his debut twenty three or thirty six for one 0:03:15.160 --> 0:03:18.720 nine three no touchdowns, one pick, was sack three times twice. 0:03:18.760 --> 0:03:21.320 He overthrew open receivers what would have been touched for 0:03:21.400 --> 0:03:24.239 what would have been touchdowns. Yesterday, UH, he did move 0:03:24.240 --> 0:03:26.119 the Bengals as I mentioned the twenty three yard line 0:03:26.120 --> 0:03:30.000 closing minutes, made a rookie mistake. UH forced to shovel 0:03:30.080 --> 0:03:33.400 pass that Ingram picked off Melvin Ingram. That was before 0:03:33.480 --> 0:03:36.680 the last sequence. UH the in character finished where A 0:03:36.800 --> 0:03:39.200 J Green was called for the UH O p I 0:03:39.320 --> 0:03:41.200 in the end zone. And then Randy Bullock missing a 0:03:41.320 --> 0:03:43.160 thirty one yard and when I say missing a thirty 0:03:43.160 --> 0:03:46.400 one yard with two seconds left, I mean really missing it, 0:03:46.520 --> 0:03:49.960 grabbing his left his left calf which he said cramped 0:03:50.000 --> 0:03:53.160 when he planted. That effected the kick. According to Bullock says, 0:03:53.200 --> 0:03:57.040 it's never happened to him before the Browns. UH. Maybe 0:03:57.080 --> 0:03:59.680 the most disappointing of all teams in Week one, Christie, 0:03:59.720 --> 0:04:02.040 I'm not sure not only getting beat by the Ravens, 0:04:02.120 --> 0:04:04.720 no shame in that, but just getting destroyed by the 0:04:04.800 --> 0:04:07.920 Ravens UH thirty eight to six final. In that one, 0:04:08.600 --> 0:04:12.840 Baker Mayfield thirty eight, one touchdown, one pick, sack twice. 0:04:13.200 --> 0:04:16.200 Cleveland still hasn't opened with the victories since two thousand four. 0:04:16.440 --> 0:04:20.080 All that said, UM, I don't think the Bengals are 0:04:20.080 --> 0:04:23.400 any good. I think the Chargers just gave them every 0:04:23.400 --> 0:04:26.279 opportunity obviously is outlined to win that game. And we 0:04:26.360 --> 0:04:29.040 have a rookie quarterback in Joe Burrow not only coming 0:04:29.080 --> 0:04:32.480 off his very first game, but now on a short week, 0:04:33.000 --> 0:04:37.040 rookie quarterback, short week from game one to game two. 0:04:37.520 --> 0:04:39.839 That can't be good. I'll say Cleveland by a touchdown. 0:04:39.839 --> 0:04:45.200 Cleveland minus seven. Well, here a little high. It's mostly six. 0:04:46.760 --> 0:04:50.039 I can see, UM. I can see your logic, but 0:04:50.080 --> 0:04:52.760 I like to lower number. You know, I went to UM, 0:04:53.320 --> 0:04:56.240 I have like a very you know, I have a 0:04:56.320 --> 0:04:59.760 very elementary, let's say grading system, you know for the 0:04:59.800 --> 0:05:03.040 game games, and the Browns by far had the worst 0:05:03.040 --> 0:05:06.320 grade of the week. And you know, I bought into 0:05:06.320 --> 0:05:08.880 it because I'm in a couple of contests and I 0:05:08.960 --> 0:05:11.880 had the Browns I think in every one of them too, 0:05:12.240 --> 0:05:15.200 and I fell into that trap of thinking, you know, 0:05:15.279 --> 0:05:18.840 here an all off season boys, this team has tons 0:05:18.839 --> 0:05:21.480 of talent. If they gets the stuff together, look out 0:05:21.560 --> 0:05:24.520 rest of the NFL, because they're really dangerous. I bought 0:05:24.560 --> 0:05:27.080 into all of that they look like the worst team, 0:05:27.120 --> 0:05:29.000 and well from the Jets will probably give a run. 0:05:29.040 --> 0:05:31.520 There's a couple of teams out there look that, but 0:05:31.640 --> 0:05:36.200 they look absolutely horrible. Um So you know, my power 0:05:36.279 --> 0:05:38.800 rating comes to a lot less than that. But I 0:05:38.839 --> 0:05:42.679 do understand your logic. A rookie quarterback or a coach 0:05:42.720 --> 0:05:47.920 who I have a tremendous amount of questions about for Cincinnati, Uh, 0:05:48.240 --> 0:05:50.280 they didn't show, you know. I kept saying, you know, 0:05:50.480 --> 0:05:54.600 coaches like players should get better from year one to 0:05:54.760 --> 0:05:57.760 year two. You know, I mean we're one game in. 0:05:57.880 --> 0:06:01.839 I'm not sure I wanted, you know, sole throw this 0:06:01.880 --> 0:06:04.440 guy completely under the bus. But I haven't seen any 0:06:04.480 --> 0:06:07.360 improvement in his coaching or in the team. And I 0:06:07.400 --> 0:06:10.560 think that's the team that has some underrated talent. So 0:06:10.680 --> 0:06:13.680 my power rings come to a lot lower than six. 0:06:13.880 --> 0:06:19.000 But I do understand the reasoning. And as bad as 0:06:19.040 --> 0:06:22.279 the Browns are, at least they do have more talent 0:06:22.440 --> 0:06:25.640 and they do have a more experienced quarterback, So I 0:06:25.640 --> 0:06:27.520 can see the six. That's what I'm gonna open here 0:06:27.520 --> 0:06:30.159 at the south Point. Okay, No, no, no, huge issue 0:06:30.160 --> 0:06:32.640 with that Cleveland. I don't know what it is. And 0:06:32.640 --> 0:06:34.880 I've said this for a better part of a year now. 0:06:34.880 --> 0:06:37.520 About Baker Mayfield. I don't know if it's the arrogance 0:06:37.600 --> 0:06:39.839 that puts me off, but at some point you have 0:06:39.920 --> 0:06:42.560 to show something on a football field, and at some 0:06:42.680 --> 0:06:45.240 point the fingers have to point at you. I don't 0:06:45.279 --> 0:06:47.920 know if we're at that point yet, but it's creeping 0:06:48.000 --> 0:06:50.560 up that way. So this is a matchup on a Thursday. 0:06:50.560 --> 0:06:54.159 Cleveland should be able to roll this team on Thursday. 0:06:54.320 --> 0:06:56.000 We will see if that's the case or not. So 0:06:56.040 --> 0:06:59.760 you got six there, I got six. Like I said, 0:06:59.800 --> 0:07:03.520 I I think it's a shade high, but I understand 0:07:03.520 --> 0:07:06.720 the reasoning because of everything we just said, and I 0:07:06.720 --> 0:07:09.680 don't think it could. You know, you just can't affego 0:07:09.800 --> 0:07:12.280 the fact that it's a wokie quarterback playing in his 0:07:12.400 --> 0:07:16.280 second game on a short week after you know. I mean, 0:07:16.280 --> 0:07:19.240 he didn't look terrible, which war is my numbers here. 0:07:19.640 --> 0:07:22.080 I was a cube yard though twenty point two. That's 0:07:22.080 --> 0:07:25.760 pretty bad. Um, it was passer rating sixty six point one. 0:07:26.360 --> 0:07:28.600 I always like to look at yards per tempt five 0:07:28.720 --> 0:07:33.960 point four and that's pretty terrible. Um, But he's playing 0:07:33.960 --> 0:07:37.760 another team that looked pretty bad too, so I'd probably 0:07:37.840 --> 0:07:40.280 lean towards taking the points, but I don't think they'd 0:07:40.280 --> 0:07:44.520 be uh going hard hog wild on twenty point two QBR. Remember, 0:07:44.560 --> 0:07:47.520 for folks that scored out of a hundred fifty is 0:07:47.560 --> 0:07:52.760 an average performance. Twenty point two for Baker Mayfield. I 0:07:52.760 --> 0:07:56.240 I had in games on the Chargers, for for for Borrow. 0:07:56.320 --> 0:08:00.160 I'm sorry for Joe Burrow. Yeah not good. Yeah, don't worry. 0:08:00.080 --> 0:08:04.280 Maybe there wasn't much better thirty three point four right, yeah, 0:08:04.440 --> 0:08:08.000 semantics And when it comes to those numbers, um, yeah, 0:08:08.040 --> 0:08:10.240 I had to end games on the Chargers against the Bengals. 0:08:10.360 --> 0:08:12.920 Have no idea how they got there, but based on 0:08:12.960 --> 0:08:16.040 what we just outlined, somehow it did with mistakes from 0:08:16.040 --> 0:08:18.760 the rookie quarterback and then the Shenanigans at the game 0:08:19.000 --> 0:08:21.120 at the end with the O p I and also 0:08:21.160 --> 0:08:27.480 with the shank to field goal. Let's go to Sunday. Okay, Sunday, 0:08:27.480 --> 0:08:33.360 we have the Rams at the Eagles, Rams at the Eagles, 0:08:33.520 --> 0:08:36.600 Rams beat the Cowboys last night for those who missed it, 0:08:36.600 --> 0:08:40.079 for those who were exhausted, like we we typically get 0:08:40.120 --> 0:08:42.760 at the end of an NFL football day, but maybe 0:08:42.760 --> 0:08:44.520 because we're not used to it more so than anything 0:08:44.600 --> 0:08:48.480 Yesterday I had a real hard time getting locked into 0:08:48.559 --> 0:08:49.920 that game last night. I don't know if it was 0:08:49.920 --> 0:08:52.480 the nature of it or just the game flow, but 0:08:52.559 --> 0:08:55.880 the Rams end up beating the Cowboys seventeen. That one 0:08:55.920 --> 0:09:01.360 also featured of p I that came into play very prominently. 0:09:01.400 --> 0:09:05.120 An offensive p I Cowboys with thirty one seconds left, 0:09:05.240 --> 0:09:08.959 Dak Deep to Mike Gallup looked like a completed pass, 0:09:09.559 --> 0:09:14.240 but he shoved off Jalen Ramsey apparently just enough to 0:09:14.360 --> 0:09:17.000 draw the flag, and Jalen Ramsey sold it. So the 0:09:17.080 --> 0:09:20.720 Rams end up preserving the seventeen win. We'll get to 0:09:20.760 --> 0:09:24.200 the Cowboys and their play calling and some questionable play 0:09:24.200 --> 0:09:28.439 calling at that momentarily, but the Rams win that. The 0:09:28.520 --> 0:09:33.439 Eagles lose to the Washington football team. We said it 0:09:33.440 --> 0:09:35.760 about the Washington football team. We'll talk about them later. 0:09:36.000 --> 0:09:38.640 They have a certain strength. If they held the other 0:09:38.679 --> 0:09:40.400 team to a certain amount of points, maybe they can 0:09:40.440 --> 0:09:43.560 win football games. They played it perfectly. But the Eagles, 0:09:43.760 --> 0:09:46.320 they played perfectly to that script. The Eagles were up 0:09:46.320 --> 0:09:48.760 in this game seventeen to nothing. So all that said, 0:09:49.200 --> 0:09:51.880 you think you can win a game where you're up 0:09:51.920 --> 0:09:55.000 seventeen and nothing, where your win probability in game per 0:09:55.160 --> 0:09:59.480 next Gen Stats was nine for the Eagles. I don't 0:09:59.520 --> 0:10:01.319 know if I I that one so much. By the 0:10:01.360 --> 0:10:04.280 way I buy what I buy baseball win probabilities, I'm 0:10:04.280 --> 0:10:06.480 not sure if I buy, but that's what they said. 0:10:06.720 --> 0:10:10.480 Wentz was for two seventy two touchdowns, two picks. He 0:10:10.600 --> 0:10:16.480 was sacked Chrissie eight times, eight times through his first 0:10:16.480 --> 0:10:21.000 interception in attempts going back to last December one, but 0:10:21.200 --> 0:10:24.840 right tackled Jack Driscoll and right guard Nate Herbick there 0:10:24.880 --> 0:10:28.920 starting there, we're starting their first career games. They were missing. 0:10:28.960 --> 0:10:31.040 The Eagles were three time Pro Bowl right tackle Lane 0:10:31.080 --> 0:10:35.320 Johnson and three time Pro Bowl right guard Brandon Brooks. 0:10:35.360 --> 0:10:39.840 So much of the Eagles lack of success yesterday can 0:10:39.960 --> 0:10:43.640 kind of be focused on that and that alone. Rams 0:10:43.640 --> 0:10:45.920 at Eagles. You got a one and no team and 0:10:45.960 --> 0:10:48.000 an O and one team. The Eagles will still be favorite. 0:10:48.000 --> 0:10:52.120 I'll say by two and a half. Yeah, you're right on. 0:10:52.400 --> 0:10:54.480 It's two and a half. But this open higher. In 0:10:54.559 --> 0:10:56.480 a lot of spots last night I saw like three 0:10:56.520 --> 0:10:59.240 and a half and four. It's not a two and 0:10:59.240 --> 0:11:01.120 a half. A little bit of juice on the favorite, 0:11:01.320 --> 0:11:04.640 Uh see a three with money on the dog. My 0:11:04.720 --> 0:11:06.679 numbers are a lot closer to pick. And I'll tell 0:11:06.720 --> 0:11:09.680 you why. You know, you really hit on it. People 0:11:09.679 --> 0:11:11.559 look at injuries, and the first thing they look at it, 0:11:11.760 --> 0:11:14.040 of course, his quarterback. But after that they started looking 0:11:14.040 --> 0:11:18.880 at receivers running backs, probably receivers more nowadays than than 0:11:19.160 --> 0:11:22.480 a couple of years passed. But everybody overlooks those offensive 0:11:22.520 --> 0:11:25.120 line injuries and during the course of the season. And 0:11:25.120 --> 0:11:26.800 by the way, I had Washington and a bunch of 0:11:26.840 --> 0:11:30.840 those contentests yesterday and the watch guys. Actually it's weird 0:11:30.880 --> 0:11:33.040 that because I saw wise thats on both sides of 0:11:33.040 --> 0:11:36.559 that of the Washington Philly game yesterday. But I had 0:11:36.640 --> 0:11:40.199 Washington and it really wasn't a bet on Washington. Was 0:11:40.240 --> 0:11:43.720 more of a bet against Philadelphia really for the exact 0:11:43.760 --> 0:11:46.840 reason you mentioned. With the right side of their line, 0:11:46.840 --> 0:11:50.120 they went from two all pros, the two guys starting 0:11:50.120 --> 0:11:53.599 their very first game. I mean, and whence, what do 0:11:53.640 --> 0:11:55.959 you say, has how many sacks did he have with 0:11:56.080 --> 0:11:59.440 in my notes here yet? Uh? Eight sacks? But besides 0:11:59.480 --> 0:12:02.120 the eight acts, I mean, he was pressured the whole game. 0:12:02.800 --> 0:12:05.600 And you know, I still like wins quite a bit. 0:12:06.160 --> 0:12:08.719 But you know, you had. Last year, he had all 0:12:08.760 --> 0:12:12.120 the skill position players around them suffered injuries. Now this 0:12:12.200 --> 0:12:14.880 year he has all the offensive lineman or his key 0:12:14.880 --> 0:12:19.600 offensive linemen have suffered huge injuries that I think are 0:12:19.760 --> 0:12:23.120 really affecting this team. So my numbers, I'm gonna open 0:12:23.200 --> 0:12:28.040 this low as low as possible right now. I see 0:12:28.200 --> 0:12:30.400 two and a half, like I said, with a little 0:12:30.440 --> 0:12:33.160 juice from the favorite, but stays like this by the 0:12:33.240 --> 0:12:35.199 end of the show. I'll just open the two and 0:12:35.240 --> 0:12:38.120 a half flat. If I see it dropped down even 0:12:38.160 --> 0:12:39.880 a little bit more, I'm gonna I'm gonna try to 0:12:39.920 --> 0:12:42.839 stay under the market on this game at two. And 0:12:43.080 --> 0:12:45.280 you know the Rams, we had a lot of sharp 0:12:45.360 --> 0:12:47.000 money on their rams, and in fact, all the wise 0:12:47.040 --> 0:12:49.480 guys were on the Rams last night. And again I 0:12:49.559 --> 0:12:52.880 understand why you look back at just a few short 0:12:52.960 --> 0:12:55.640 years ago. This team was in the Super Bowl and uh, 0:12:55.800 --> 0:12:58.480 you know, their coach was like the hot guy in 0:12:58.520 --> 0:13:01.360 the whole league. And last year they fell back a 0:13:01.400 --> 0:13:04.880 little bit, not quite that much. I think they missed. Man, 0:13:04.880 --> 0:13:08.040 there's a lot of them uh things with their salary 0:13:08.080 --> 0:13:10.640 cap and that's that sort of thing. But there was 0:13:10.679 --> 0:13:13.120 still a pretty good product that they have on the field, 0:13:13.200 --> 0:13:15.839 and I thought they looked good and they got a 0:13:15.840 --> 0:13:17.719 little lucky to win, There's no doubt about it. I'm 0:13:17.720 --> 0:13:20.559 not sure about that push off at the end um, 0:13:20.600 --> 0:13:23.440 but still a pretty good team may have some respect 0:13:23.520 --> 0:13:25.680 for the Rams that maybe it was overlooked by the 0:13:25.760 --> 0:13:29.000 general public. So I put me down. I like the 0:13:29.080 --> 0:13:31.439 Rams in this spot. I think they that this game 0:13:31.440 --> 0:13:34.000 should be no worse than pick them. Maybe even the 0:13:34.080 --> 0:13:36.800 Rams are very slight favors. I think fully has a 0:13:36.840 --> 0:13:39.920 ton of problems right now. Jared goff Wasy of thirty 0:13:39.920 --> 0:13:42.360 one for two seventy five last night, no touchdowns, one pick, 0:13:42.440 --> 0:13:45.360 was sack once as biggest target was Robert Wood six 0:13:45.400 --> 0:13:47.840 catches for one oh five, a lot of that early 0:13:48.240 --> 0:13:50.840 in the game. I didn't think the Rams were that 0:13:50.880 --> 0:13:53.760 spectacular last night. I didn't think they were that noteworthy 0:13:53.800 --> 0:13:57.040 in any kind of way. So two games, no incidents 0:13:57.120 --> 0:13:58.760 yet with the lines, Chrissy, give me a third. We'll 0:13:58.800 --> 0:14:02.840 do one quick here before the break. Carolina at the 0:14:02.920 --> 0:14:07.160 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Carolina loses to the to the Las 0:14:07.280 --> 0:14:11.000 Vegas Raiders. Seesaw game Bridgewater Teddy Bridgewater first start for 0:14:11.000 --> 0:14:13.319 the Panthers, twenty two of thirty four for two seventy 0:14:13.360 --> 0:14:16.440 one touchdown note picks with sack ones. Christian McCaffrey twenty 0:14:16.480 --> 0:14:19.240 three carries ninety six yards, two touchdowns, three catches for 0:14:19.280 --> 0:14:21.960 thirty eight yards, or as defenses like to call it, 0:14:22.040 --> 0:14:25.320 we bottled him up pretty good with those numbers. Actually, 0:14:25.400 --> 0:14:27.840 Robby Anderson six catches for one fifteen and a touchdown. 0:14:28.160 --> 0:14:32.000 But car Carolina has inexperienced secondary and they struggled that 0:14:32.080 --> 0:14:35.800 a rookie cornerback, Tony Pride, he missed one assignment that 0:14:35.880 --> 0:14:39.440 resulted in Henry Ruggs going forty five yards later, same 0:14:39.720 --> 0:14:42.360 corner allowed at twenty three yard touchdown past the Nelson 0:14:42.400 --> 0:14:45.400 Agalore uh, and it didn't happen. It obviously didn't help 0:14:45.440 --> 0:14:47.880 that Dante Jackson went down early in the first quarter 0:14:48.000 --> 0:14:51.480 either their number one corner. UH. The Raiders did start 0:14:51.480 --> 0:14:55.680 two rookies at wide receiver, but clearly those Carolina injuries 0:14:55.800 --> 0:14:59.920 and UH and lack of experience really might have been 0:15:00.080 --> 0:15:02.000 the rule of the day or might have actually been 0:15:02.400 --> 0:15:04.840 the difference, I should say, in that game. So Carolina 0:15:04.920 --> 0:15:08.400 loses to Las Vegas in their opener. Tampa Bay loses 0:15:08.440 --> 0:15:11.240 to New Orleans. No real surprise there. Tom Brady and 0:15:11.320 --> 0:15:13.560 his debuted twenty three or thirty six, two thirty nine, 0:15:13.640 --> 0:15:16.320 two touchdowns, two picks, one of which was a pick six, 0:15:16.480 --> 0:15:18.960 sack three times. He did score on the on the 0:15:19.000 --> 0:15:22.280 first drive of the UH of the season for Tampa Bay. 0:15:22.280 --> 0:15:23.880 They went up seven and nothing, but they end up 0:15:23.960 --> 0:15:27.480 losing to the Saints as uh. Let's call it four 0:15:27.520 --> 0:15:30.520 and a half now, four point closing dogs thirty four 0:15:30.560 --> 0:15:32.880 to twenty three. But it's the pick six. There was 0:15:32.920 --> 0:15:36.120 a mortar kick uh that ended up back in New 0:15:36.200 --> 0:15:38.760 Orleans hands as well. You take those two things out, 0:15:39.400 --> 0:15:42.280 maybe it's a completely different outcome. I don't think this 0:15:42.320 --> 0:15:44.800 is a down grade for Tampa Bay at all here 0:15:45.640 --> 0:15:48.120 after that game, like, I don't think of them any differently. 0:15:48.520 --> 0:15:52.080 I will say, I'll guess ten points here, and we'll 0:15:52.120 --> 0:15:54.400 go to the break here, Christie, and we'll get your reaction. 0:15:54.440 --> 0:15:56.800 But I'll guess ten points. It's a numbers game, it's 0:15:56.800 --> 0:15:59.080 guessing lines. It's brought to you by bet MGM Sports 0:15:59.240 --> 0:16:01.920 Football's back obviously at bet MGM Sports Nevada, the premier 0:16:01.960 --> 0:16:03.960 sports betting app from the same folks who bring you 0:16:03.960 --> 0:16:06.280 the best sports booking casino action in Las Vegas. Bet 0:16:06.360 --> 0:16:09.360 MGM with all your favorite wagering options. Just download the 0:16:09.400 --> 0:16:11.680 bet mgm app today, stop by any MGM casino on 0:16:11.720 --> 0:16:13.480 the strip with your state issued I d to open 0:16:13.520 --> 0:16:15.840 an account and start placing sports bets for anywhere in Nevada. 0:16:15.880 --> 0:16:18.200 Whatever your sport, you're gonna love. Bet MGM state of 0:16:18.200 --> 0:16:21.600 the art technology and fan friendly specials every day of 0:16:21.640 --> 0:16:24.040 the week. Just visit bet mgm for terms and conditions. 0:16:24.440 --> 0:16:26.760 Must be twenty one or older and physically located in Nevada. 0:16:26.800 --> 0:16:30.040 Please gamble responsibly as always, We'll get Chrissie's reaction to 0:16:30.080 --> 0:16:32.680 that guessing lines and numbers game at Visa the Sports 0:16:32.680 --> 0:16:52.800 Betting Network. Chrissie Andrews is here guessing lines in the 0:16:52.880 --> 0:16:55.720 NFL for week number two. What about my reaction before 0:16:55.760 --> 0:16:58.320 the break? Then to the matchup you gave me between 0:16:58.520 --> 0:17:00.440 the Bucks and the Panthers. I got the Buck's mind 0:17:00.520 --> 0:17:05.080 is ten crazy? You're too high? Are you given teams 0:17:05.119 --> 0:17:08.920 a home field advantage? No, but I don't. I actually 0:17:09.000 --> 0:17:13.680 don't downgrade the Bucks at all for yesterday. Well, I'm 0:17:13.720 --> 0:17:16.400 looking at my power raise and I don't let me see, 0:17:16.440 --> 0:17:18.960 I don't think. I don't. I might have downgraded. Listen, 0:17:19.640 --> 0:17:24.840 this is kind of tricky. I downgraded them a point. Um. 0:17:24.920 --> 0:17:26.720 I expect them to be really good by the end 0:17:26.760 --> 0:17:28.639 of the year. It's I think it's just gonna take 0:17:28.640 --> 0:17:30.600 a little while for Brady. You know, we talked about 0:17:31.400 --> 0:17:35.280 Baker Mayfield's qbr Brady was like one point higher, thirty 0:17:35.320 --> 0:17:39.360 four point six, and Bakers was thirty three point four. 0:17:39.720 --> 0:17:41.960 So I mean, he doesn't have it together yet. I'm not, 0:17:42.880 --> 0:17:47.680 you know, bagging on Brady. I think he looks pretty good. 0:17:47.760 --> 0:17:49.760 Some of the numbers want to reflect that, but I 0:17:49.800 --> 0:17:52.800 think he still looked like the Brady of three, four 0:17:52.920 --> 0:17:55.159 or five years ago, so which by the way, was 0:17:55.160 --> 0:17:57.679 good enough to win Super Bowls. So I'm not bagging 0:17:57.680 --> 0:17:58.960 on him, but I think it's just gonna take a 0:17:59.000 --> 0:18:02.399 while for everything that come together for this team. You know, 0:18:02.560 --> 0:18:05.920 it's old news. Of course, we had no preseason or 0:18:05.960 --> 0:18:07.760 anything like that, so it might take a little bit 0:18:08.080 --> 0:18:09.840 of a while. And he's been known to start slow 0:18:09.920 --> 0:18:13.040 a couple of other years, although Steelers would dispute that. 0:18:14.240 --> 0:18:16.280 But I think you're just too high. Seven and a 0:18:16.320 --> 0:18:18.680 half is what I see. I've see anywhere from seven 0:18:18.680 --> 0:18:21.480 a half to eight half, I'm gonna open seven half. 0:18:21.520 --> 0:18:25.320 I like that better. Um, you know, I thought the Panthers, 0:18:25.480 --> 0:18:29.080 you know, they looked okay, kind of like right about 0:18:29.119 --> 0:18:31.040 where I thought. You know, they had a very good 0:18:31.040 --> 0:18:35.879 game against against Las Vegas UM, which I thought was 0:18:36.200 --> 0:18:38.760 really a pretty good game. But Bridgewater I thought looked 0:18:38.760 --> 0:18:41.479 pretty good, which you know, it was a good thing. 0:18:41.520 --> 0:18:43.719 I always really like this kid coming out of college. 0:18:43.760 --> 0:18:47.320 He had a devastating injury. I'm not sure, however, get 0:18:47.320 --> 0:18:49.000 back to where he was, but I thought he looked 0:18:49.000 --> 0:18:51.480 pretty good and I think this team could stay within 0:18:51.520 --> 0:18:52.920 seven and a half. And by the way, I mentioned 0:18:52.920 --> 0:18:55.359 the home field rating, which I've been talking for years 0:18:55.720 --> 0:18:58.000 that I think it was very much overrated, and this 0:18:58.080 --> 0:19:01.320 year I think it has to be almost nil. But 0:19:01.560 --> 0:19:04.040 Ed saying, did uh a study on it, and he 0:19:04.080 --> 0:19:05.800 put it out on Twitter a couple of weeks ago. 0:19:06.160 --> 0:19:08.879 In the NFL. Over the last couple of years, I 0:19:08.920 --> 0:19:11.840 think his numbers for home field came like one point 0:19:12.000 --> 0:19:17.120 seven points, and I think that's probably about right. But 0:19:17.400 --> 0:19:19.640 this year, I think it's gonna be nothing. And yesterday 0:19:19.640 --> 0:19:21.960 I think I think it was six dogs one out 0:19:22.040 --> 0:19:24.280 right on the road. So I think I home field 0:19:24.359 --> 0:19:27.600 just not gonna mean anything hardly at all. So I 0:19:27.640 --> 0:19:29.080 think you're a little high with this, And no, I 0:19:29.119 --> 0:19:31.800 don't know if that subconsciously got into your thought process. 0:19:31.840 --> 0:19:33.520 For I think seven and a halfs plenty apps. Like 0:19:33.560 --> 0:19:35.720 I said, I then from seven half to eight and half, 0:19:35.760 --> 0:19:38.320 but I definitely like the lower end of the spectrum. Well, 0:19:38.320 --> 0:19:39.920 and you scared me. I thought you were gonna say 0:19:39.960 --> 0:19:41.960 like six and a half, but at least you're over seven. 0:19:41.960 --> 0:19:45.439 So I'm not I'm not like egregiously laughably off, but 0:19:45.480 --> 0:19:47.080 I will say that it was it about home field. 0:19:47.119 --> 0:19:48.800 To me, it's about what I said before the break. 0:19:48.800 --> 0:19:52.359 If Carolina is playing Tony Pride at corner and if 0:19:52.400 --> 0:19:54.520 they're going to be banged up on the other side 0:19:54.880 --> 0:19:57.960 and not have Dante Jackson playing, If that's the possibility, 0:19:58.359 --> 0:20:01.439 Tom Brady is going to have a field day. So 0:20:01.480 --> 0:20:03.080 that's why I came up with the ten. But you know, 0:20:03.200 --> 0:20:05.320 seven and a half, all right, I won't go crazy 0:20:05.320 --> 0:20:06.840 about that, but I think I like Tampa Bay at 0:20:06.880 --> 0:20:11.360 that number Um show show. Yeah, that's but you're absolutely 0:20:11.400 --> 0:20:13.680 right about home field. Drew Dinsick did a great job 0:20:13.720 --> 0:20:16.440 with this when he was on the podcast earlier the summer. 0:20:16.480 --> 0:20:18.040 By the way, we will put this in podcast for 0:20:18.080 --> 0:20:20.040 him of course at Beating the Book for those who 0:20:20.119 --> 0:20:22.000 missed any parts of this and want to check back. 0:20:22.760 --> 0:20:25.560 But if you do the study of all two fifty 0:20:25.600 --> 0:20:27.280 six games this year, from the first lines that were 0:20:27.280 --> 0:20:30.159 put out, even by the numbers itself, you can tell 0:20:30.160 --> 0:20:32.920 that home field baked into the lines is worth only 0:20:32.960 --> 0:20:35.600 about a point and a half, you know, this season. 0:20:36.000 --> 0:20:38.679 Uh And of course besides Jacksonville, we had nobody in 0:20:38.720 --> 0:20:43.080 the stands yesterday. It should be noted Jacksonville couldn't sell 0:20:43.160 --> 0:20:46.199 all eighteen thousand tickets. It was like just north of 0:20:46.320 --> 0:20:53.119 sixteen thousand. We'll get to that momentarily. That is true. 0:20:53.920 --> 0:20:55.760