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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. I

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Speaker 1: am Chadmilman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. Today

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Speaker 1: is our week fifteen, Thursday NFL episode. This is the

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Speaker 1: episode when we get feedback from the wise guys who

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Speaker 1: listen to the show. We make our Survivor pick and

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Speaker 1: build our Monday Line Underdog Round Robin. We'll give out

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Speaker 1: our Foxhole bit, our big Balls bet of the week,

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Speaker 1: and we narrow down our picks for the free to

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Speaker 1: play Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick

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Speaker 1: Them contest. As our old pal Colin Coward likes to say,

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Speaker 1: there's a sea of money out there, because there's a

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Speaker 1: sea of money out there. If you want to follow

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Speaker 1: along with our official bets, you can check them out

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Speaker 1: on the contest website Favorites dot Actionnetwork dot com when

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Speaker 1: we lock them in before kickoff on Sunday. If you

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Speaker 1: prefer using the award winning Action app, you can also

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Speaker 1: track all the bets. Simon and I lock in by

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Speaker 1: following two accounts to Phase five and the Favorites Podcast. Now,

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Speaker 1: let's bring in my co host, My companion, Mike padre

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Speaker 1: My BFF professional better Simon hunter Head, Oh saw him.

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Speaker 2: In Hello Ho, Chad Brother.

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Speaker 1: You got some froggy, some sleepy froggy today.

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Speaker 2: I'm sick. I've been sick for two weeks and it's

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Speaker 2: six in the morning. This is what you're getting people,

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Speaker 2: This is as it gets.

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Speaker 1: You're fighting through it. You're coming to the table with

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Speaker 1: everything you got because you're committed to this podcast, You're

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Speaker 1: committed to our audience. The good news is, I don't

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Speaker 1: think we've had a week this year where we've been

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Speaker 1: more aligned from the jump on say, five to seven games.

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Speaker 1: In fact, we're getting a little it's week fifteen. We're

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Speaker 1: getting a little bit smarter about this contest. I was

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Speaker 1: doing research last night for the show and feeling more

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Speaker 1: and more confident about the Bears, which was your Simon

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Speaker 1: says at three and a half, And then I got

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Speaker 1: nervous that I saw this line move in and that

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Speaker 1: might move in the contest. So I did log into

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Speaker 1: the contest site last night, and since the Bears were

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Speaker 1: at three and a half, I had to make four

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Speaker 1: other picks in order to make sure we lock in

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Speaker 1: at least the Bears at three and a half for

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Speaker 1: now as we go through this. So I did lock

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Speaker 1: in four other picks you and I debated them last night.

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Speaker 1: We're going to run through all those plus others that

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Speaker 1: I think are still on the table, and we will

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Speaker 1: monitor before we officially lock in on Sunday. I'm excited

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Speaker 1: to see what we have in store for us today,

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Speaker 1: what the sharps have to say, how the lines that

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Speaker 1: are moving are impacting us. A lot to discuss, but

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Speaker 1: generally feeling a lot less antsy about this than a

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Speaker 1: half in weeks. As a reminder, the Favorites Podcast is

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Speaker 1: presented by Bet three sixty five. Bet three sixty five

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Speaker 1: must be twenty one and older and present in Colorado, Iowa. Louisiana,

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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia eighteen and older. In Kentucky, gambling

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Speaker 1: problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred

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Speaker 1: all right. Week fifteen, a kickoff is approaching. Opportunities all

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Speaker 1: over the board. It's time for charp calls.

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Speaker 2: Hello, who's there? I'm talking rain.

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Speaker 1: Rain telephone range.

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Speaker 2: Somebody say it.

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Speaker 1: Maybe what you do in.

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Speaker 2: The funniest thing that happened to yesterday was definitely you

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Speaker 2: hitting me up trying to get our picks in. I

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Speaker 2: was like, Oh, Chad's excited this week, bug getting our

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Speaker 2: picks in. I don't know when the last time our

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Speaker 2: week got decided by half a point. It's been a while.

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Speaker 2: So hopefully your instincts are white. You're right, and your

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Speaker 2: intuition's right, and it matters this week. But we've had

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Speaker 2: a run here. Either we cover and we went outright

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Speaker 2: or we just kept blown out. I feel like we've

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Speaker 2: not had a close spread here in a couple of weeks,

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Speaker 2: which has been a little weird. So I'm hoping you're

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Speaker 2: right this week. Maybe the spreads will matter, But yeah,

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Speaker 2: it's been one of those seasons. If you bet the dog,

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Speaker 2: they've kind of been winning outright in a couple of

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Speaker 2: these matchups. I mean even last week right around Robin

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Speaker 2: came through betting these dogs. So yeah, I'm with Chad.

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Speaker 2: We did we did her put our five in yesterday

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Speaker 2: a little early. But like Chad always says, our subject change,

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Speaker 2: so things could change. But are we going to say

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Speaker 2: what our five r at the end of the show, right?

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Speaker 2: We will.

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Speaker 1: At the end of the show, we'll lock in. I

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Speaker 1: tell everybody win our five hors. I'm built. You know

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Speaker 1: it's something content business. We call this building anticipation. You

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Speaker 1: know what can't build anticipation chut GPT. That's why it

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Speaker 1: can't replace us.

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Speaker 2: Easy to say right now, we'll talk again in ten years.

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Speaker 2: What do you want to do? You want me to talk

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Speaker 2: Saturday too for sharp calls or just Sunday.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think everyone wants to hear where the sharps

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Speaker 1: are leading, even if it's not games we can play

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Speaker 1: in the contest for sure.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I just found it interesting that a lot of

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Speaker 2: pros I talked to like the Denver, which I thought

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Speaker 2: was interesting. It's a game I really have much feel

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Speaker 2: for they do. Like Denver, still really have no real

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Speaker 2: feel for it, Like I kind of want to take

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Speaker 2: the lines if they get to three three and a half,

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Speaker 2: it feels like that's where I'd break, but it's still four.

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Speaker 2: A lot of books. No real opinion from me, I

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Speaker 2: can tell you the professionals do. Like Denver the game

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Speaker 2: I liked two and a half Pittsburgh. I knew the

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Speaker 2: pros are going to be on it. It's just a

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Speaker 2: Tomlin spot. It's what the professionals are going to play.

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Speaker 2: Saw it coming a mile away, and I think it's

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Speaker 2: gone from two and a half to one one and

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Speaker 2: a half and a lot of looks. Wouldn't be shocked

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Speaker 2: if this closes a pick or just where it's at

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Speaker 2: right now. One it's just a coin flip game, so

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Speaker 2: not shotgains has come down. You know, the guys I

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Speaker 2: talked to like Pittsburgh. It's the kind of the same

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Speaker 2: reason I do. It's a good spot to back a

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Speaker 2: team on the road as a dog for Tomlin after

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Speaker 2: two bad losses. It's a cold team that you know

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Speaker 2: they've been overachieving like they have. I mean, an argument

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Speaker 2: that's crazy to think on my head but you know,

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Speaker 2: Steichen's been really good. They could be what a top

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Speaker 2: ten coach team right now. Like the Colts are seven

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Speaker 2: and five with a backup quarterback. They've really overachieved. I

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Speaker 2: think professionals like me are just looking at It's like, okay,

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Speaker 2: it's gone long enough. The values shifted against them. You know,

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Speaker 2: did I see them getting blown out last week by Cincinnati? No?

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Speaker 2: But I did like Cincinnati this week. I actually do

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Speaker 2: like Pittsburgh. But like Chad said the other show, we

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Speaker 2: can't blame the contests, so I'll be betting it just

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Speaker 2: won't be one of our five. Now we'll get to

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Speaker 2: the good part the Sunday games. Let's start the ones

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Speaker 2: I got wrong that the pros like. And I'm on

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Speaker 2: the other side of it. Jaguars, I don't see it.

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Speaker 2: I've had about twenty conversations. I don't get it. Everyone

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Speaker 2: thinks Baltimore is gonna slip up and this is a

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Speaker 2: bad spot, and they want to fade them this week

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Speaker 2: and then back them next week against I think the

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Speaker 2: forty nine ers. I don't know. I just I don't

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Speaker 2: see it. I just don't see the Ravens having back

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Speaker 2: to back bad games like last week was a bad

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Speaker 2: game against the Rams. I mean they kind of slept

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Speaker 2: walk through it, kind of should have lost, and then

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Speaker 2: you know, Lamar got that two pointer and they got

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Speaker 2: that kick return in overtime. It's just I don't know.

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Speaker 2: It doesn't feel like I'm buying high on the range

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Speaker 2: because I think if they lost last week against the Rams,

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Speaker 2: that's what this number would be. The number would be three, right,

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Speaker 2: So it feels properly priced. But I can tell you

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Speaker 2: I'm on the opposite side, So maybe me and Chat

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Speaker 2: won't to have some contest just because I've talked to

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Speaker 2: so many pros who love the Jaguars here, but don't

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Speaker 2: I don't see it walk into the trap with anyone

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Speaker 2: betting this Baltimore team. It's just I'm missing something. But

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Speaker 2: I can tell you if you just want to avoid it,

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Speaker 2: that's the pros like the Jaguars next time.

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Speaker 1: I don't feel like this was ever going to be

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Speaker 1: in our contest because I'm skeptical of the Ravens on

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Speaker 1: the road at a number of three, you're.

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Speaker 2: Better Why though, That's what I kept saying to them.

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Speaker 2: Why are you skeptical of this number against a Jaguars team?

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Speaker 1: Oh, it's not about the Jaguars team. It's about the

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Speaker 1: spot and Lamar Jackson is a favorite and historically not

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Speaker 1: being able to cover this kind of number. Why. It's

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Speaker 1: one of the reasons we liked the Rams last week.

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Speaker 1: We liked the matchup, but we also liked the fact

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Speaker 1: that when Lamar is this big of a favorite, it play.

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Speaker 2: Seven and a half though this is three points against

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Speaker 2: the Jaguar. I get it pretty much, no one.

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Speaker 1: But that's the line of demarcation three year better.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, just found an interesting another game. The pros

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Speaker 2: like that. I'm on the other side. They're like, Washington,

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Speaker 2: I don't get it. I don't see it. I liked

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Speaker 2: I feel like we're getting good value on the Rams

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Speaker 2: at six and a half. Just gonna away. Apparently it's

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Speaker 2: it's a trap and I'm walking right into it. But

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Speaker 2: it's all right.

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Speaker 1: I'm glad you mentioned that we're gonna let's talk about

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Speaker 1: that one a little bit later, because we were texting

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Speaker 1: about that one last night and I was trying to

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Speaker 1: get your sense. So, uh, that's definitely one we'll go

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Speaker 1: deeper on.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, don't get it. Uh, talk to a couple of

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Speaker 2: guys who love Dallas, which I was shocked, but I

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Speaker 2: thought everyone just be in unison on this Buffalo team.

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Speaker 2: It's just another week of people split. It's like last

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Speaker 2: week with the Eagles Dallas game, and it's just people

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Speaker 2: are gonna be split. I mean, it's like the Eagles

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Speaker 2: forty nine Ers game. A bunch of pros are split

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Speaker 2: on that one. Same thing here. It's just there's some

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Speaker 2: guys who are just very dug in on this Dallas team.

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Speaker 2: They really like them. I mean they're not uh, they're

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Speaker 2: not not that. I don't think they're overreacting, but I

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Speaker 2: do think they are where it's like, this is when

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Speaker 2: you get off Dallas. We always hit this point in

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Speaker 2: every season with Dallas like they're they're they're fans have

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Speaker 2: balled in. Uh Stephen A. Smith is gonna be talking

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Speaker 2: about them? Is is this the year the Cowboys win

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Speaker 2: the Super Bowl? Everyone's just gonna be drinking the kool aid.

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Speaker 2: And this usually where I get off and I make

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Speaker 2: good money here, but I don't think people, especially betters,

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Speaker 2: trust the Bills like I do, and it's hard for

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Speaker 2: me to disagree with it. Sean McDermott, his defense when

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Speaker 2: he is a lead has been atrocious this season, and

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Speaker 2: could we easily get back toward by Dallas. Yes, but

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Speaker 2: when I'm making this bet, this is a bet I'm

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Speaker 2: making of like you know, the Bills are going to

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Speaker 2: beat them by more than a touchdown. This won't be

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Speaker 2: a close game. So that's another on We're gonna definitely

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Speaker 2: have to dive into Chad. And then the last last

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Speaker 2: two that they agreed is long. Well, I guess three

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Speaker 2: no brainer. You take the Panthers here against Atlanta. Another

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Speaker 2: no brainer back in the Bears against the banged up

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Speaker 2: Cleveland team, which we're going to talk about. And then

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Speaker 2: again me and you really don't talk much about. But

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Speaker 2: the pros love it. The Patriots, which I did think

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Speaker 2: we gave out at nine and a half. We's down

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Speaker 2: to seven and a half eight. A lot of books

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Speaker 2: not shocking there. The pros came in on it was

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Speaker 2: just too big of a number mix in. Now you

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Speaker 2: have all these bullshit rumors about Belichick. I mean, come on,

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Speaker 2: it's going to be pros versus Jows. The public will

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Speaker 2: be on the Chiefs, the pros will be on the Patriots.

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Speaker 2: I'm just shocked it's moved two points since Tuesday, so

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Speaker 2: it was nine and a half. Now it's seven and

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Speaker 2: a half.

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Speaker 1: As a reminder, you can catch every episode of The

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Speaker 1: Favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube, don't

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Speaker 1: forget to give us a like and subscribe to the

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Speaker 1: Action Network YouTube page. All right, you mentioned a lot

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Speaker 1: of the games that we're talking about. We got to

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Speaker 1: get to her Foxhall. We've got to get to Surviveor.

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Speaker 2: I lost. I lost Survivor.

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Speaker 1: We're done with Survivor.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I got. I don't know if we brought up

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Speaker 2: last show, but I'm dead. Pittsburgh lost, Green Bay lost.

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Speaker 1: Oh that's right, that's right. I forgot about it.

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Speaker 2: I'm still in one, but it's over. It is sadly

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Speaker 2: over for me.

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Speaker 1: I totally forgot about that. All right, Yeah, well listen again.

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Speaker 2: Four.

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Speaker 1: We got to get to our big balls better the week.

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Speaker 1: As we've said all season, the public is having the

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Speaker 1: best year of betting against the spread. Here's some new

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Speaker 1: numbers from Evan Abrams Public Sides. The team's receiving the

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Speaker 1: majority of betting tickets this year one oh eight eighty

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Speaker 1: six and six. That is the best start through this

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Speaker 1: point in the season for the public in our bet

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Speaker 1: Labs database, which goes back eighteen almost nineteen years now

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Speaker 1: to two thousand and five. It is not a streaky thing, folks.

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Speaker 1: Public has gone five hundred against the spread or better

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Speaker 1: in twelve of fourteen weeks this season. The fact that

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Speaker 1: the public keeps winning is remarkable. By the way, that

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Speaker 1: percentage is fifty six percent, just about fifty five point

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Speaker 1: seven three ish percent edge for what you need in

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Speaker 1: order to make any money, accounting for the juice at

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Speaker 1: ten percent. Public is crushing this year, which also explained

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Speaker 1: simon a lot of our challenges. Right since Week eight,

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Speaker 1: we've sort of been battling that two three two three

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Speaker 1: three two two three ekeing out wins because these sides

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Speaker 1: that we normally take haven't been covering. So another week

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Speaker 1: we'll do what we do. We're going to fight through.

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Speaker 1: We're not going to be cowed by what has been happening.

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Speaker 1: We're going to stick with our success metrics, our instincts,

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Speaker 1: our research, our analysis, what we know to be true.

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Speaker 1: First game up, we mentioned it, Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns.

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Speaker 1: Browns are now minus three at bet three sixty five.

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Speaker 1: This game is the reason I put the picks in

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Speaker 1: last night. It was at three and a half in

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Speaker 1: the contest. I saw it moving. It only took fifteen

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Speaker 1: weeks for my instincts to think, okay, how will that

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Speaker 1: impact the contest? I made the bet. In the contest,

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Speaker 1: we realize if I'm going to do that, I got

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Speaker 1: to pick the other four games. But this was the

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Speaker 1: game that made me want to do it. I wanted

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Speaker 1: this three and a half. This was Simon says. And

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Speaker 1: like you just said, this is about a couple things.

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Speaker 1: Cleveland's strength has been its offensive and defensive line. Cleveland's

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Speaker 1: interior offensive line is decimated right now. Cleveland's defensive line

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Speaker 1: suffering through a lot of injuries, so you're getting a

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Speaker 1: healthy versus unhealthy advantage. Joe Flacco were peaked Joe Flacco

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Speaker 1: right now. That game last week against the Jaguars, big win.

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Speaker 1: The strength of the Bears their rush defense is the

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Speaker 1: strength of the Browns offense, so that mitigates their rush

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Speaker 1: offense and puts more pressure on Flacco to be protected

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Speaker 1: behind an offensive line that is injured and a Bears

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Speaker 1: defensive end in Montese Sweat who was really coming into

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Speaker 1: his own right now. Plus Jalen Johnson is the number

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Speaker 1: one rated cornerback according to PFF. So should we be

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Speaker 1: betting the Bears on the money line here?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll get them in the money line around Rob

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Speaker 2: for sure. We just talked about it. It's like it's

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Speaker 2: a half point gonna matter. Probably not, but it makes

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Speaker 2: me and Chat sleep better at night knowing we have

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Speaker 2: a three and a half rather than a two and

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Speaker 2: a half. And that's the god honest truth. Yeah, the

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Speaker 2: publics has done well. But at the same time, you know,

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Speaker 2: I say it all the time, Jennif our worst weeks

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Speaker 2: are two and three, yeah, you can quit your day job.

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Speaker 2: You are really good at gambling just because two and

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Speaker 2: three weeks, I mean they hurt, but at a twelve

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Speaker 2: thousand people somehow we're instilled. And that's what top three hundred,

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Speaker 2: top four hundred of people in the contest. So it's just,

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Speaker 2: you know, if you can mitigate your bad weeks as

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Speaker 2: a better it doesn't really matter how well the public's doing. Like, yeah,

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Speaker 2: if they weren't doing this well, Chat, we me and

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Speaker 2: you being the sixty percent, Yes, a lot of those

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Speaker 2: dogs we bet on would have gone our way where

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Speaker 2: it's really gone the favorite way. But it stinks. But again,

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Speaker 2: it's it's OK all the time. If you follow what

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Speaker 2: we're doing, you're gonna be a long term winner. You

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Speaker 2: just have to make it through these rough weeks, which

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Speaker 2: for a rough weeks or two and three, life's pretty good.

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Speaker 2: I will take that any time, because we've had one

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Speaker 2: one to four week and man was that painful. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: looking at this game, we knew even whatever that was

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Speaker 2: Sunday and night we talked about it. We knew most

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Speaker 2: like we're going to be on it. But the fact

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Speaker 2: that you know, you go. I went back and watched

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Speaker 2: that Flaco game. It's incredible. I mean, he threw for

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Speaker 2: three hundred yards, multiple touchdowns. It was so bizarre watching

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Speaker 2: that game tape. But the biggest thing I noticed from

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Speaker 2: it was it was really, you know, well designed, but

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Speaker 2: it was all based off run pass. Like they would

331
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Speaker 2: either fake the run and the linebackers would step up,

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Speaker 2: or they'd run an RPO and he would just do

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Speaker 2: one read and throw it quick to a Cooper. It

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Speaker 2: was just a lot of that. So the Bears, they

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Speaker 2: have really good linebackers. If there's a team that can

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Speaker 2: do well against those kind of looks, it is the Bears.

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Speaker 2: Like they had the speed they had. The linebackers can

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Speaker 2: play that style, and you've seen it since you guys

339
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Speaker 2: have gotten help up front, like Sweat, the linebackers be

340
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Speaker 2: able to play better because he is clogging up those

341
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Speaker 2: holes and forcing the running back to go where they

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Speaker 2: went the running back to go. So yeah, Bears, nothing

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Speaker 2: would have moved me off this number, honestly, Like maybe

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Speaker 2: if there was a justin Fields injury, I would have

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Speaker 2: maybe thought twice about betting this. But Ben bennettson Sunday,

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Speaker 2: the fact that every day we get another defensive player

347
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Speaker 2: hurt and out for the season from this Cleveland team.

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Speaker 2: They've just had the worst luck of any team this season, right,

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Speaker 2: like defensively, offensively, the injuries they had, I mean, they

350
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Speaker 2: lost the best player in their team, Nick Chubb or

351
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Speaker 2: I guess Garrett's the best player, but Chubb, and then

352
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Speaker 2: they lose their quarterback. It's just a disaster. So number

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Speaker 2: doesn't make sense. Chad, I still know why it is three.

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Speaker 2: Could easily see this being two two and a half

355
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Speaker 2: by kickoff, And Chad's right, like, if you can still

356
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Speaker 2: get the three and a half, what are you waiting for?

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Speaker 2: We gave it out Tuesday Simon says, go grab it's

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Speaker 2: it is going to just go down to three.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, this is one of those games, in one of

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Speaker 1: those teams. I just don't think bookmakers in the market

361
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Speaker 1: have adjusted to the Bears. They're caught up in the

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Speaker 1: narrative that this is a terrible team. They're caught up

363
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Speaker 1: in the narrative of what the Bears were before Justin

364
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Speaker 1: Fields came back. They're caught up in the narrative of

365
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Speaker 1: Justin Fields and the Bears blowing a massive leave to

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Speaker 1: the Lions in the final four minutes and Justin Field's

367
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Speaker 1: first came back two or three weeks ago. We talked

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Speaker 1: about it in the YouTube exclusive Favorites film Room, breaking

369
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Speaker 1: down Justin Fields. He's making better decisions, He's quicker when

370
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Speaker 1: he is making those decisions. He's making the right reads.

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Speaker 1: The next four weeks as a Bears fan are going

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Speaker 1: to be fascinating because it will define the Bears fandom

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Speaker 1: for a generation. They have all the opportunities, all the

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Speaker 1: tools in front of them. They have salary cape space,

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Speaker 1: they have draft assets. They have a quarterback who is

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Speaker 1: on the verge or do they get rid of that quarterback?

377
00:19:02,040 --> 00:19:05,840
Speaker 1: Gopher Broke get another quarterback with a longer tail in

378
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Speaker 1: terms of a financially responsible contract that they can build

379
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Speaker 1: even greater. Justin Fields is playing for his legacy. He's

380
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Speaker 1: playing for his future as a Bear. He's playing for

381
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Speaker 1: his future as a quarterback somewhere else. He's playing for

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Speaker 1: his next coach. These next four weeks are everything for

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Speaker 1: Justin Fields and the Bears franchise. It is. The stakes

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Speaker 1: are massive, massive, and.

385
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Speaker 2: A nice staff from Evan here, which is again, I

386
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Speaker 2: love Justin Fields, I love the Dolphins doing. But this

387
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Speaker 2: bet really is more about the Bears defense in Cleveland's defense,

388
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Speaker 2: so epa per play on defense. Since Week eleven, the

389
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Speaker 2: Bears are fifth in the league, Cleveland's eighteenth, and yep,

390
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Speaker 2: this is a Cleveland team that was historically great and

391
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Speaker 2: the injuries have just caught up to him, right, And

392
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Speaker 2: you can say it's matchup like, well, who of these

393
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Speaker 2: two teams? Different teams have played. The Bears have played

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Speaker 2: the Lions twice in that span, like one of the

395
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Speaker 2: best offense in all football, and they've made them not

396
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Speaker 2: look as great. So yeah, I'm drinking the cool at eschakag.

397
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Speaker 2: We might we might get caught here, because maybe we

398
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Speaker 2: are by it at the peak. But it just feels

399
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Speaker 2: like what you had said is true. The books have

400
00:20:06,520 --> 00:20:08,680
Speaker 2: not adjusted enough to this bears defense what they've been

401
00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:10,240
Speaker 2: these last couple of weeks.

402
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Speaker 1: Atlanta at Carolina. You mentioned it right now in the

403
00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:17,040
Speaker 1: contest is three and a half, So that's another reason

404
00:20:17,040 --> 00:20:19,359
Speaker 1: why I wanted to grab it. It's generally three across

405
00:20:19,359 --> 00:20:21,840
Speaker 1: the board at most books. You and I both betted

406
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Speaker 1: at three. We talked about it on Tuesday. I almost

407
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Speaker 1: didn't want to talk about it. I think my one

408
00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:30,040
Speaker 1: line was, we know Carolina is the right side, we're

409
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Speaker 1: gonna bet it, let's not talk about it. But the

410
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Speaker 1: more I looked at it, and the more I did

411
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Speaker 1: a little research on sort of what they did against

412
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Speaker 1: the Saints, they just shouldn't have lost that game.

413
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Speaker 2: And or if they did, we shouldn't have been by

414
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Speaker 2: whatever it was, twenty.

415
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Speaker 1: It shouldn't have been by twenty something points. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 1: They got a lockdown corner in J. C. Horn, who's back.

418
00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:53,399
Speaker 1: They got a premier edge rusher and Brian Burns. Both

419
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Speaker 1: teams have terrible quarterbacks. Atlanta has really played on the

420
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Speaker 1: edge all season long, right, So I feel like we

421
00:21:01,800 --> 00:21:04,920
Speaker 1: are going to be more comfortable betting against Desmond Ritter

422
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Speaker 1: as a road favorite and taking what we think is

423
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Speaker 1: the value in Bryce Young.

424
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Speaker 2: Yeah, comfort is not something I'd use in any way

425
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Speaker 2: for either side in this game. You're right, it's gonna

426
00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:22,720
Speaker 2: be an awful experience. I already know it, but Chad

427
00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:25,280
Speaker 2: just said it so well, where it's like, this is

428
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Speaker 2: how we win. We play these spots, we bet these dogs,

429
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Speaker 2: and it doesn't I'm looking at all the dogs right now,

430
00:21:31,920 --> 00:21:33,600
Speaker 2: like I'm going through it on my phone. I don't

431
00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:36,120
Speaker 2: think there's an uglier dog this week, Like this is

432
00:21:36,840 --> 00:21:39,280
Speaker 2: this is as ugly as it gets for the Panthers,

433
00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:42,840
Speaker 2: Like they are so bad that this is this is

434
00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:45,840
Speaker 2: probably the most public side, right I haven't looked. I

435
00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:48,479
Speaker 2: haven't talked to many book makers this week, but it

436
00:21:48,520 --> 00:21:50,160
Speaker 2: feels like when I talk to a bunch of guys,

437
00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:53,359
Speaker 2: it's gonna be. Yeah, we desperately need the Panthers this week,

438
00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:56,680
Speaker 2: just because everyone's out. The only people who were betting

439
00:21:56,720 --> 00:22:00,919
Speaker 2: them were the professionals. And you know, I've talked to

440
00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:03,000
Speaker 2: a handful and there's just some that are like, you know,

441
00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:05,600
Speaker 2: like I do the thing right boycott teams. I talked

442
00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:08,040
Speaker 2: to a couple guys they boycott this Panther team. They

443
00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:10,719
Speaker 2: just they don't. They think Bryce Shung is broken right

444
00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:12,800
Speaker 2: now and it's gonna take it off season to fix them.

445
00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:14,959
Speaker 2: Where my view is what Chad just said is I'm

446
00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:17,200
Speaker 2: betting on their defense here Like this, to me is

447
00:22:17,240 --> 00:22:20,760
Speaker 2: a defensive bet on the Panthers at home outdoors against

448
00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:24,680
Speaker 2: an Atlanta team that historically doesn't travel great. They usually

449
00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:27,560
Speaker 2: play better in the Dome than they do outdoors. Uh.

450
00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:34,680
Speaker 2: But you know, just looking at the record of this

451
00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:38,399
Speaker 2: Atlanta team, they don't really blow teams out. Chad like,

452
00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:42,640
Speaker 2: if you go through their schedule, yeah, yeah, Week one,

453
00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:45,719
Speaker 2: Yeah they did blow out the Panthers, they beat them

454
00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:47,840
Speaker 2: twenty four to ten. But if you go through their

455
00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:50,680
Speaker 2: schedule every other game, they're usually win in by three points,

456
00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:52,119
Speaker 2: two points, and then we've seen their.

457
00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:54,600
Speaker 1: Points three point. I did. I did the same thing.

458
00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:58,080
Speaker 1: That's why I'm saying they've been on the edge oh year.

459
00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:00,359
Speaker 1: This is not a team that can blow a team out,

460
00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:03,160
Speaker 1: and I don't think. I don't think they're as good

461
00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:07,880
Speaker 1: as they were in Week one, to be honest, I.

462
00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:09,800
Speaker 2: Think it's easier when you get more tape on Desmond

463
00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:11,960
Speaker 2: Ritter because you know exactly what he wants to do.

464
00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:14,800
Speaker 2: If you go through his tape he's got you know,

465
00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:17,800
Speaker 2: there's there's throws he cannot make and there's s throws

466
00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:20,760
Speaker 2: he can make, and that's how they scheme it. And yeah,

467
00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:23,359
Speaker 2: another great stat by Evan. Every every Atlantic game this

468
00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:24,760
Speaker 2: year has a spread of three and a half for

469
00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:28,040
Speaker 2: points or less. Like that's perfectly sums up this Atlanta

470
00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:30,639
Speaker 2: team where if they're playing a really good team and

471
00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:34,240
Speaker 2: they're catching seven six points, Sharon men Chat wouldn't mind

472
00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:37,000
Speaker 2: backing them. But when they're playing all these mid blow

473
00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:39,000
Speaker 2: average teams like they did with the Bucks last week,

474
00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:42,159
Speaker 2: it's like they really should be catching points against anybody, right,

475
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:44,280
Speaker 2: They're kind of a coin flip team every week.

476
00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:50,800
Speaker 1: So most the second most public team this week seventy

477
00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:54,520
Speaker 1: six percent of the tickets on the Falcons, which, by

478
00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:57,280
Speaker 1: the way, it could be a good open with the

479
00:23:57,359 --> 00:24:00,200
Speaker 1: way the public is going this week. But we will

480
00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:01,479
Speaker 1: continue to fade the public.

481
00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:04,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean we don't always, Like again, we ride

482
00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:07,520
Speaker 2: the public sometimes, but in these kind of spots, we're

483
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:11,560
Speaker 2: getting a home divisional dog. Never never, never, never would

484
00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:13,679
Speaker 2: I just you know, ride ride with them on that one,

485
00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:16,439
Speaker 2: especially when it's a gregious number like this, where this

486
00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:19,080
Speaker 2: should be one and a half. Two. We're getting an

487
00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:22,360
Speaker 2: extra point for free because Carolina has been a joke

488
00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:26,320
Speaker 2: this season. So yeah, it's I don't know if I'll

489
00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:28,479
Speaker 2: get the three and a half. I know Chad Sepberg,

490
00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:31,400
Speaker 2: we got that in contest, but I've been betting the three.

491
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:33,800
Speaker 2: I have no fear of taking the threes. Just yeah, rarely,

492
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:36,159
Speaker 2: we'll rarely do these games land on a push, especially

493
00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:37,840
Speaker 2: with the way these teams go for two pointers and

494
00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:42,920
Speaker 2: mistructure points. So yeah, Panthers, We're all in, like it's

495
00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:44,800
Speaker 2: gonna be in our contest. It's gonna be in our

496
00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:49,800
Speaker 2: money line round around up and and I'm sick for it. Uh.

497
00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:52,439
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers another one that might be in our

498
00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:56,520
Speaker 1: round robin. Three and a half at the Green Bay Packers.

499
00:24:57,200 --> 00:24:59,000
Speaker 1: I got it. I bet the I bet the Bucks

500
00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:03,440
Speaker 1: at three and a half. I can't decide here, though,

501
00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:09,920
Speaker 1: Are we like? Are we wisely wisely bet against Jordan

502
00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:14,240
Speaker 1: Love last week as a favorite on the road against

503
00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:17,439
Speaker 1: the Giants. That was an easy call, smash spot on

504
00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:21,960
Speaker 1: the Giants, so predictable, exactly what we expected it to be.

505
00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:25,560
Speaker 1: He just looked like a different quarterback than he had

506
00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:30,199
Speaker 1: the previous month. Is this week a bet against Jordan

507
00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:34,680
Speaker 1: Love or a bet on Baker Mayfield whose moxie we love?

508
00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:37,120
Speaker 1: Who you broke down in the Favorite film room yesterday,

509
00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:41,600
Speaker 1: brilliantly give us our perspective here, because I know we

510
00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:43,440
Speaker 1: want to bet the Bucks. I have bet the Bucks.

511
00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:45,640
Speaker 1: You have bet the Bucks. They'll be in our contest.

512
00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:48,440
Speaker 1: But why do we like the Bucks?

513
00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:52,199
Speaker 2: It's a good number. But yeah, it's it is a

514
00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:55,440
Speaker 2: bet on Jordan Love. It should come back to Earth, right.

515
00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:57,879
Speaker 2: It's his first year as a starter, so they had

516
00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:00,840
Speaker 2: a nice run. But like I said, it's time. The

517
00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:03,800
Speaker 2: more teams get tape on you, the more that they

518
00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:05,480
Speaker 2: learn the things you like to do and they take

519
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:10,159
Speaker 2: away those things. And you know, Bucks coaching staff is

520
00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:14,200
Speaker 2: total dumpster fire compared to anything that the Giants have, right,

521
00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:18,240
Speaker 2: and the Giants defense, they really put a tape out

522
00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:19,840
Speaker 2: there what to do to Jordan Love to kind of

523
00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:22,040
Speaker 2: take away what he wants to do, Like he doesn't

524
00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:24,160
Speaker 2: like dealing with the extra pass rusher, especially when he's

525
00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 2: doing his little play action plays. You know, there's just

526
00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 2: a bunch of things they could take advantage of, but

527
00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:31,560
Speaker 2: it is it is kind of betting on Baker Chat.

528
00:26:31,560 --> 00:26:35,240
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna lie, like I just feel if we're

529
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:38,959
Speaker 2: down by a field goal, you know, or whatever, four

530
00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:41,639
Speaker 2: or five points and Baker as the ball, you know,

531
00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:44,680
Speaker 2: we're not totally dead. And that's a lot when you're

532
00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:46,640
Speaker 2: betting ugly dogs at this point of the season, because

533
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:48,800
Speaker 2: it's just you know, if they were good the Bucks,

534
00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:50,520
Speaker 2: this wouldn't be a three and a half, right, And

535
00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:53,199
Speaker 2: that's why it is where it's like they're kind of

536
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:55,359
Speaker 2: begging us to bet this one Chat, which I'm with

537
00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:58,600
Speaker 2: you is a little scary on it, Like, I wouldn't

538
00:26:58,600 --> 00:26:59,879
Speaker 2: be shocked that we do change it out if we

539
00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:02,400
Speaker 2: a game we like more, because you know, I did

540
00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:03,760
Speaker 2: think it was gonna be a bigger, better mind, but

541
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 2: now that we're sitting here Thursday, it's probably not one

542
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:09,240
Speaker 2: of my five biggest bets so far, but I do

543
00:27:09,359 --> 00:27:11,159
Speaker 2: really like it, Like I like the number, I like

544
00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:13,280
Speaker 2: the spot. But I think you said it perfectly where

545
00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:17,720
Speaker 2: it's like this Bucks team, you know, they overachieved and

546
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:19,520
Speaker 2: then they kind of lay an egg, and they overachieved,

547
00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:21,119
Speaker 2: they kind of laying egg, and this could be an

548
00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:25,080
Speaker 2: egg laying spot. Uh. But man, that's such a big

549
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:26,840
Speaker 2: that's such a big spread, three and a half. It's

550
00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 2: just that's that's my problem here is I'm just so

551
00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:31,879
Speaker 2: enticed by the number where I just I don't think

552
00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:34,160
Speaker 2: Jordan Love should be catching three and a half against

553
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:36,159
Speaker 2: a team that's leading their division right now. It's just

554
00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:38,720
Speaker 2: it feels like it's too many points for Jordan and Love.

555
00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:40,960
Speaker 2: So totally get if you're getting a little cold feet,

556
00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:42,439
Speaker 2: or if the fans of the show are. It's just

557
00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:44,920
Speaker 2: when I saw the spread, I felt like it was

558
00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:46,480
Speaker 2: a little too big to pass on it.

559
00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:51,720
Speaker 1: Definitely getting cold fit. That's fair, getting cold fit. It

560
00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:54,960
Speaker 1: just I know it makes sense. This is one where

561
00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:58,480
Speaker 1: I feel like we're using the word feel too much,

562
00:27:58,920 --> 00:28:01,480
Speaker 1: do you know what I mean? And we have seen

563
00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:04,880
Speaker 1: things in Baker this season. Times we've bet on him,

564
00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:07,840
Speaker 1: and we haven't walked away from those games when we've

565
00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:12,240
Speaker 1: lost thinking, oh, I regret it. Oh, Baker is the reason.

566
00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:14,879
Speaker 1: Oh we're putting the Bucks on blast or the Bucks

567
00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:16,920
Speaker 1: are going to be the team that we're crossing off

568
00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:19,720
Speaker 1: the list. The way we have thought about Bryce Young

569
00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:25,080
Speaker 1: or Desmond Ritter or Mac Jones, right Baker like he's

570
00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 1: enticed us enough to bait us a little bit, and

571
00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:34,040
Speaker 1: it's very possible we're going to be fading Jordan Love

572
00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:36,920
Speaker 1: and a better coaching staff in a bounce back game.

573
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:41,720
Speaker 1: That's my biggest concern. Houston and Tennessee Tennessee two and

574
00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 1: a half. This one we've debated a lot. As we

575
00:28:44,360 --> 00:28:46,520
Speaker 1: like to say, you're my guy and this is in

576
00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:50,920
Speaker 1: for now, I'm kind of agnostic on it. Don't have

577
00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 1: a strong feeling. I know it's a verable spot twenty

578
00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:57,840
Speaker 1: nine to seventeen straight up, but as a favorite. We

579
00:28:57,880 --> 00:29:01,320
Speaker 1: talked about this on Tuesday, twenty twenty five and one

580
00:29:01,360 --> 00:29:06,560
Speaker 1: against the spread. Since twenty twenty one, nine and ten

581
00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:13,120
Speaker 1: against the spread at home and against the AFC South,

582
00:29:13,800 --> 00:29:20,320
Speaker 1: the Titans have lost strict six straight divisional games straight up.

583
00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:21,400
Speaker 2: What so.

584
00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:26,640
Speaker 1: This was my feeling on Tuesday. I didn't have the

585
00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:29,360
Speaker 1: numbers to back it up as to why I love

586
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:31,520
Speaker 1: Rabel as a dog, don't like him as a favorite.

587
00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:36,520
Speaker 1: Demiico Ryan's discussed CJ. Stroud's status this week. He made

588
00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:40,000
Speaker 1: it seem like they were gonna be really patient. Think

589
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:42,520
Speaker 1: long term, I don't think he's going to play this week.

590
00:29:42,520 --> 00:29:47,560
Speaker 1: He was not in practice on Wednesday. So to me,

591
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:50,840
Speaker 1: this is a bet on Simon Hunter and a bet

592
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:52,480
Speaker 1: against Davis Mills.

593
00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 2: Well find me, Evan, find me some what Tennessee and

594
00:29:56,360 --> 00:29:58,600
Speaker 2: Rabel have done to Houston in his career, because I

595
00:29:58,640 --> 00:30:01,600
Speaker 2: feel like it's been good. And auto bet I make

596
00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:04,760
Speaker 2: every year they play this game is Derrick Henry over

597
00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:07,840
Speaker 2: rushing yards, Derrick Henry anytime touchdown, and then I bet

598
00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:11,640
Speaker 2: Tennessee to win. So yeah, those stats scared me a

599
00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:13,920
Speaker 2: little bit. But for some reason, the gambler in me, Chad,

600
00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:17,560
Speaker 2: I've made some really good money bet in Tennessee against

601
00:30:17,560 --> 00:30:20,480
Speaker 2: Houston these last couple years. Okay, not Crazy's six and

602
00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:25,680
Speaker 2: four straight up against Houston his career a variable, Yeah,

603
00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:28,480
Speaker 2: it's honestly, I'm I just wanted to get the number

604
00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:32,080
Speaker 2: two and a half just before CJ got cleared or

605
00:30:32,120 --> 00:30:34,680
Speaker 2: if he is gonna come back, you know it'll stink

606
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:36,680
Speaker 2: because I'm gonna lose value here. But if he is out,

607
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:38,080
Speaker 2: I do think this number will go up to three

608
00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:41,320
Speaker 2: and a half. Three, So I like it. I just

609
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:45,840
Speaker 2: I like this spot for Tennessee. The defense they run

610
00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:50,560
Speaker 2: it is the best defense that like. They're the way

611
00:30:50,560 --> 00:30:54,160
Speaker 2: their secondary plays, it's the perfect matchup, best matchup for

612
00:30:54,200 --> 00:30:56,760
Speaker 2: Will Levison Hopkins as well for deep balls, like the

613
00:30:56,800 --> 00:30:59,680
Speaker 2: way they play, the way they're staying their safety step up.

614
00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:02,200
Speaker 2: He's going to get one on one a ton with

615
00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:05,200
Speaker 2: Hopkins on the outside, and we've seen it where it's like,

616
00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:07,520
Speaker 2: you know, it might not be the greatest strow by

617
00:31:07,520 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 2: Will Levis, but Hopkins is so veteran savvy he can

618
00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:13,239
Speaker 2: even push the defender off of him, but he knows

619
00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:14,960
Speaker 2: how to shield the arm with his body where it

620
00:31:15,000 --> 00:31:17,160
Speaker 2: doesn't look like he's pushing off, but he is to

621
00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:19,440
Speaker 2: get open and catch these balls. I just I love

622
00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:23,320
Speaker 2: all these little in game matchups for the offense. For Tennessee.

623
00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:27,440
Speaker 2: The fear is Tennessee's defense. They've had major injuries to

624
00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:30,600
Speaker 2: the d line, They've traded away their best safety. And

625
00:31:30,760 --> 00:31:34,400
Speaker 2: if it's CJ Like Yes, Jed, I would be terrified,

626
00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:36,600
Speaker 2: it literally would be open season for them in the secondary.

627
00:31:36,600 --> 00:31:39,160
Speaker 2: He'll be able to pass all over them. But like

628
00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:41,040
Speaker 2: I said, if it's Davis Mills, we've got to be

629
00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 2: feeling pretty good here about fading him as an under

630
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:46,640
Speaker 2: a three point dog. So yeah, we have an end

631
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:49,680
Speaker 2: of the contest round two and a half for this Sunday.

632
00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:52,600
Speaker 2: If it's CJ. Chad, I got no issue. You mean

633
00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:54,000
Speaker 2: you switching this one out.

634
00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:56,360
Speaker 1: Gonna be interesting. I feel like there's a couple of

635
00:31:56,400 --> 00:31:58,760
Speaker 1: games and there's one coming up that I want to

636
00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:02,040
Speaker 1: see if we can have longer conversation about. But first,

637
00:32:02,240 --> 00:32:05,680
Speaker 1: Dallas at Buffalo. This was my exec decision. The Buffalo

638
00:32:05,760 --> 00:32:08,000
Speaker 1: Bills minus two and a half. You know, you mentioned

639
00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:10,880
Speaker 1: in the Sharp Calls that Wise guys have come in

640
00:32:10,920 --> 00:32:14,040
Speaker 1: on Dallas and this number, this moved down. I thought

641
00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:17,200
Speaker 1: it was going to go to three, and even yesterday

642
00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:20,959
Speaker 1: afternoon it was two and a half minus win eighteen

643
00:32:21,360 --> 00:32:23,640
Speaker 1: like it looked like it was head into three. And

644
00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:27,400
Speaker 1: then Wise guys started pounding the Cowboys and it's at

645
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:30,280
Speaker 1: it was at one and a half. Now it's back

646
00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:35,200
Speaker 1: up to two. I don't know why people don't think

647
00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:37,520
Speaker 1: Dallas is at the top of the market. But there's

648
00:32:37,520 --> 00:32:40,440
Speaker 1: a couple of things about the Bills. And again we

649
00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:45,080
Speaker 1: talked about this in Green Dot Daily on Tuesday. You

650
00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:50,280
Speaker 1: mentioned this. The Bills schedule after this, they play the Chargers,

651
00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:54,080
Speaker 1: they play the Patriots, I think, and they play the Dolphins.

652
00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:57,320
Speaker 1: They end the season with the Dolphins. That could be

653
00:32:57,360 --> 00:33:02,440
Speaker 1: for the division. Right now, you get the Bills to

654
00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:06,520
Speaker 1: win the AFC East. This is a boost from bet

655
00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:09,800
Speaker 1: three six five. They're given this to us and our

656
00:33:09,840 --> 00:33:12,720
Speaker 1: listeners and we like it. The Bills to win the

657
00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:18,200
Speaker 1: AFC East boosted it to plus three twenty five. Go

658
00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:21,840
Speaker 1: to the NFL section of bet three sixty five under

659
00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:30,880
Speaker 1: bet boosts.

660
00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:36,479
Speaker 3: Got the Bills make Majana.

661
00:33:37,320 --> 00:33:41,120
Speaker 1: This is about the defense. To me, Rasul Douglas fourth

662
00:33:41,200 --> 00:33:45,640
Speaker 1: rated cornerback Pro Football Focus, that defense is just getting better.

663
00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:47,800
Speaker 1: Since Matt Mlana went down in that game against the

664
00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:50,960
Speaker 1: Jags in London. It takes a few weeks for replacements

665
00:33:51,040 --> 00:33:53,760
Speaker 1: to come in and get a feel for the game,

666
00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:56,840
Speaker 1: get comfortable with their new teammates, and be a part

667
00:33:56,880 --> 00:33:59,240
Speaker 1: of the flow. We did see that defense play much

668
00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:03,280
Speaker 1: better against Rotrick Mahomes. I like this this defense much more,

669
00:34:03,560 --> 00:34:05,360
Speaker 1: and I think that was the biggest problem we already

670
00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:08,480
Speaker 1: got Josh Allen playing at MVP level. Doesn't make sense

671
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:10,320
Speaker 1: to me why you would have wanted back the Bills here.

672
00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:18,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, a little pushback on the defense would be the

673
00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:21,239
Speaker 2: fact that they have had a nice little run here

674
00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:24,000
Speaker 2: against back quarterbacks when they played one good quarterback which

675
00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:27,479
Speaker 2: hurts was he put up thirty seven points or whatever

676
00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:29,840
Speaker 2: it was against them. I'm right there with you. It's

677
00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:34,080
Speaker 2: more about fading Dallas. Like Dallas have had incredible turnover luck.

678
00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:38,239
Speaker 2: I mean since what the forty nine Ers game, so

679
00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:42,000
Speaker 2: since October eighth, they've had some really good luck. Bounce away.

680
00:34:42,000 --> 00:34:43,680
Speaker 2: I mean, they beat the Chargers by three points. The

681
00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:46,120
Speaker 2: next week they had their bye, Then they blow out

682
00:34:46,160 --> 00:34:48,360
Speaker 2: the Rams, you know, great game, lose by five to

683
00:34:48,360 --> 00:34:50,520
Speaker 2: the Eagles game they probably should have won. Then they

684
00:34:50,560 --> 00:34:54,520
Speaker 2: have blow Giants, blow out Panthers, blow out Washington, and

685
00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:56,840
Speaker 2: then they play Seattle on the Eagles, which were both

686
00:34:57,360 --> 00:34:59,080
Speaker 2: semi close games. They kind of blow up the Eagles

687
00:34:59,120 --> 00:35:01,600
Speaker 2: there at the end when they got all those turnovers.

688
00:35:01,600 --> 00:35:05,160
Speaker 2: So it's a Dallas team that, yeah, like they can

689
00:35:05,200 --> 00:35:08,560
Speaker 2: be really dominant, but are they tested like this Bills

690
00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:11,160
Speaker 2: team is. Like this Bills team feels like they've been

691
00:35:11,200 --> 00:35:13,839
Speaker 2: playing playoff games for like five weeks now, like they've

692
00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:18,239
Speaker 2: just been through it. They're so tested. This is the

693
00:35:18,239 --> 00:35:20,799
Speaker 2: gauntlet we talked about with this Dallas team, Right, they

694
00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:24,760
Speaker 2: got to go Buffalo Miami Detroit, Like that's really hard

695
00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:26,279
Speaker 2: to run through that. I know it doesn't sound as

696
00:35:26,280 --> 00:35:27,719
Speaker 2: hard as it did a couple of weeks ago, right

697
00:35:27,719 --> 00:35:29,840
Speaker 2: when we had a lot more respect for Miami in Detroit.

698
00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:33,759
Speaker 2: But all those teams can score and move the ball.

699
00:35:34,040 --> 00:35:37,320
Speaker 2: And I've been saying it, like I think Dallas's defense

700
00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:40,360
Speaker 2: is good. Do I think they're a top three team

701
00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:43,439
Speaker 2: that people keep talking about they are? No, I don't

702
00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:46,000
Speaker 2: really think they're that great of a defense, especially scheme wise,

703
00:35:46,000 --> 00:35:48,319
Speaker 2: and they've just been living and dying off these turnovers.

704
00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:52,439
Speaker 2: So yeah, if Josh Allen throws three picks, we're dead.

705
00:35:52,680 --> 00:35:54,600
Speaker 2: Me and Chad know this. But if you can just

706
00:35:54,640 --> 00:35:57,960
Speaker 2: give us just one pick, protect the ball, you know,

707
00:35:58,040 --> 00:36:01,640
Speaker 2: no cook fumble. It's just all about protecting the ball

708
00:36:01,680 --> 00:36:04,520
Speaker 2: for this Bills team. I don't see it whe Dallas

709
00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:06,320
Speaker 2: wins this game. It's just when you're looking at the

710
00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:09,440
Speaker 2: way it matches up. Like Chad said, there's things that

711
00:36:09,480 --> 00:36:12,160
Speaker 2: Bills can do defensive, they can stop this Dallas offense.

712
00:36:12,200 --> 00:36:14,680
Speaker 2: I mean they they people haven't been talking about it.

713
00:36:14,680 --> 00:36:17,520
Speaker 2: They cannot run the ball like this Dallas team. It's

714
00:36:17,560 --> 00:36:19,680
Speaker 2: been all Deck That's why he is the favorite MVP.

715
00:36:19,760 --> 00:36:21,880
Speaker 2: It's really been on his back because they really have

716
00:36:21,920 --> 00:36:23,600
Speaker 2: not had a running game Like Pollard has not been

717
00:36:23,680 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 2: what they thought he was gonna be. He's not been

718
00:36:26,080 --> 00:36:28,520
Speaker 2: Ezekiel Elliott type for them, especially in the red zone.

719
00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:32,440
Speaker 2: He's not been the running back they need. So you know,

720
00:36:32,680 --> 00:36:34,320
Speaker 2: if I was gonna say that the one biggest weakness for

721
00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:36,080
Speaker 2: that Bill's team is you can run it on them.

722
00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:38,040
Speaker 2: I don't really have that fear here again with this

723
00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:41,319
Speaker 2: Dallas team, Chad, So nothing changed for me. Yes, the

724
00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:43,520
Speaker 2: pros as split on it. I still have a ton

725
00:36:43,560 --> 00:36:45,759
Speaker 2: of confidence in this Bill's team, especially under a field

726
00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:50,120
Speaker 2: goal at this number, I.

727
00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:53,480
Speaker 1: Agree, I have no reason to want to take this

728
00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:57,279
Speaker 1: out top of the market for Dallas. Improving team in

729
00:36:57,320 --> 00:37:01,160
Speaker 1: the Bills with an MVP caliber quarterback in Josh Allen.

730
00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:03,279
Speaker 1: I thought you made a really interesting point the other day,

731
00:37:03,880 --> 00:37:07,719
Speaker 1: Josh Allen twenty to one to win MVP still a

732
00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:11,160
Speaker 1: live market in this right. And if Josh Allen wins out,

733
00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:14,440
Speaker 1: beats the Chiefs, beats the Cowboys, wins the rest of

734
00:37:14,480 --> 00:37:17,520
Speaker 1: their games, leads the league in touchdown passes, leads the

735
00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:22,200
Speaker 1: league in total touchdowns, and that team wins the division,

736
00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:26,120
Speaker 1: you're talking about a much different conversation, and Josh Allen

737
00:37:26,200 --> 00:37:29,399
Speaker 1: would be a worthy candidate for MVP. It's been he's

738
00:37:29,440 --> 00:37:31,280
Speaker 1: been phenomenal. He's been that whole team.

739
00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:35,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, and again, eleven and six sounds way better than

740
00:37:35,040 --> 00:37:36,600
Speaker 2: ten and seven. So he does need to win.

741
00:37:36,560 --> 00:37:42,520
Speaker 1: Out Washington at the Rams. Okay, So I love this game.

742
00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:46,480
Speaker 1: We were texting about it last night. We decided to

743
00:37:46,520 --> 00:37:49,000
Speaker 1: take it out of our final five when I was

744
00:37:49,080 --> 00:37:54,160
Speaker 1: rushing picks in Initially, is the skepticism from you? What

745
00:37:54,200 --> 00:37:58,640
Speaker 1: you said about sharp calls that the wise guys are

746
00:37:58,680 --> 00:38:01,200
Speaker 1: on Washington makes there's no sense to me. I feel

747
00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:03,600
Speaker 1: like this is a couldn't be more of a mismatch.

748
00:38:04,400 --> 00:38:06,320
Speaker 1: I feel like we're getting lucky to get it under seven.

749
00:38:07,800 --> 00:38:09,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, and we'll see. I don't get it either. It's

750
00:38:09,920 --> 00:38:12,799
Speaker 2: like the Sampsonario, where again it's not the same group

751
00:38:12,840 --> 00:38:15,040
Speaker 2: where I'm like, we have to bet Washington, but it

752
00:38:15,080 --> 00:38:16,880
Speaker 2: feels like this is the Washington when they went up

753
00:38:16,920 --> 00:38:19,279
Speaker 2: to Seattle and the number dropped over to five and

754
00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:21,640
Speaker 2: a half, and I think the game landed on three.

755
00:38:22,040 --> 00:38:26,920
Speaker 2: Seattle won by three. It's just I don't think they

756
00:38:26,920 --> 00:38:30,280
Speaker 2: can quit Washington, Like they still have those googly goggly

757
00:38:30,320 --> 00:38:32,440
Speaker 2: eyes for Sam Howe and how well he played to

758
00:38:32,480 --> 00:38:36,520
Speaker 2: start the year. And I'm with you, Chad. I got

759
00:38:36,800 --> 00:38:40,520
Speaker 2: zero interest, zero invested into Washington. All my bets so far,

760
00:38:40,520 --> 00:38:45,799
Speaker 2: I've been on the Rams. Oh there you go. La

761
00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:48,600
Speaker 2: Ram's biggest public side right now eighty one percent. But

762
00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:52,040
Speaker 2: I don't hate it because they are home. Like it's

763
00:38:52,080 --> 00:38:53,560
Speaker 2: different for me when it's a home team and it's

764
00:38:53,560 --> 00:38:55,600
Speaker 2: non divisional, I don't mind it as much if it's

765
00:38:55,600 --> 00:38:59,280
Speaker 2: the biggest public side but not shocking here like this,

766
00:38:59,280 --> 00:39:01,360
Speaker 2: this to me will be and every money, one parlay,

767
00:39:01,400 --> 00:39:04,040
Speaker 2: every teaser, everything's gonna be tied to this team. That's

768
00:39:04,040 --> 00:39:05,640
Speaker 2: why it's six and a half, right, you can six

769
00:39:05,640 --> 00:39:08,040
Speaker 2: point tease it. Yeah, all you need is I'm just

770
00:39:08,040 --> 00:39:11,440
Speaker 2: to win. You know, this is we say all the time,

771
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:13,399
Speaker 2: this is the book money maker. Like there's always one

772
00:39:13,520 --> 00:39:16,040
Speaker 2: one game this week where the book needs desperately and

773
00:39:16,040 --> 00:39:19,920
Speaker 2: this is probably their their breaker. So yeah, if I

774
00:39:19,920 --> 00:39:21,839
Speaker 2: still had my Survivor contest, this is why I would

775
00:39:21,880 --> 00:39:25,000
Speaker 2: have picked the Rams here, Like I'm just I'm with Chad,

776
00:39:25,040 --> 00:39:29,200
Speaker 2: Like I love this number. But yeah, the the pros

777
00:39:29,239 --> 00:39:31,000
Speaker 2: love it. So when it got to seven, the pros

778
00:39:31,040 --> 00:39:31,520
Speaker 2: hammered it.

779
00:39:31,640 --> 00:39:31,799
Speaker 3: Now.

780
00:39:31,880 --> 00:39:34,959
Speaker 2: She's six six and a half now and the money

781
00:39:35,000 --> 00:39:37,120
Speaker 2: has been pouring in on the Rams and it's not budgeting.

782
00:39:37,160 --> 00:39:39,800
Speaker 2: So just just be careful if you are betting the

783
00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:40,600
Speaker 2: Rams in this spot.

784
00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:43,239
Speaker 1: Is this her foxhole? It feels like we're in the

785
00:39:43,239 --> 00:39:46,640
Speaker 1: foxhole here, all right. We're in the foxhil with the

786
00:39:46,640 --> 00:39:48,719
Speaker 1: Los Angeles Rams minus six and a half.

787
00:39:48,960 --> 00:39:50,759
Speaker 3: You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a

788
00:39:50,800 --> 00:39:53,239
Speaker 3: foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit to

789
00:39:53,280 --> 00:39:53,640
Speaker 3: a city.

790
00:39:53,880 --> 00:39:54,799
Speaker 2: I'm a foxhole guy.

791
00:39:55,200 --> 00:39:58,439
Speaker 1: We love it going to the foxhil by the way you.

792
00:39:58,400 --> 00:40:00,759
Speaker 2: Love it, don't put me I like it. I don't

793
00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:01,759
Speaker 2: love it, guy.

794
00:40:02,040 --> 00:40:04,640
Speaker 1: We're in the fucking foxhole. When you're in the foxhole,

795
00:40:05,040 --> 00:40:07,839
Speaker 1: there are no atheists and you're always in love.

796
00:40:08,280 --> 00:40:11,360
Speaker 2: That's it, Scientologists, we.

797
00:40:13,680 --> 00:40:20,160
Speaker 1: Are in the foxhol together. You're never half in a foxhole, Simon,

798
00:40:20,800 --> 00:40:23,800
Speaker 1: You're all the way in the foxhol That's how you survive.

799
00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:25,600
Speaker 2: That's true.

800
00:40:25,680 --> 00:40:29,600
Speaker 1: That's the definition of foxhole. You're not sneaking your head out. Hey,

801
00:40:30,120 --> 00:40:32,080
Speaker 1: what are the bad guys over there doing? Let me

802
00:40:32,080 --> 00:40:36,160
Speaker 1: sneak my head out. That's how you get snipered. We're

803
00:40:36,160 --> 00:40:39,080
Speaker 1: in the Fox Hull. We didn't big balls bet anything though.

804
00:40:39,520 --> 00:40:41,120
Speaker 2: I'm waiting for us to get to the show here.

805
00:40:41,239 --> 00:40:43,480
Speaker 2: Just make sure our graphic guys can get it right.

806
00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:46,520
Speaker 2: We're not going to question it. We'll have a definite

807
00:40:46,600 --> 00:40:47,520
Speaker 2: big balls.

808
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:50,840
Speaker 1: All right, Well do you want to It might be

809
00:40:50,880 --> 00:40:52,600
Speaker 1: different than the one I'm thinking, So why don't you?

810
00:40:53,120 --> 00:40:55,480
Speaker 1: I have one more game I want to discuss. But

811
00:40:56,640 --> 00:40:58,120
Speaker 1: if I don't know if it's going to be the

812
00:40:58,160 --> 00:41:01,120
Speaker 1: game that is the shared big balls.

813
00:41:01,560 --> 00:41:04,280
Speaker 2: So I was gonna say, Patriots for big balls.

814
00:41:05,000 --> 00:41:06,839
Speaker 1: Do we care that the number has moved so much?

815
00:41:07,520 --> 00:41:11,759
Speaker 2: No, we don't. No, I still think it has plenty

816
00:41:11,800 --> 00:41:14,600
Speaker 2: of room to move. Like we said all the time,

817
00:41:14,680 --> 00:41:16,280
Speaker 2: nine and a half is kind of a dead number.

818
00:41:16,360 --> 00:41:18,400
Speaker 2: Eight and a half, yes, that's important, but seven and

819
00:41:18,440 --> 00:41:21,000
Speaker 2: a half, I mean that's the key, Like you want

820
00:41:21,000 --> 00:41:24,360
Speaker 2: to grab the seven and a half. So it's just

821
00:41:26,320 --> 00:41:28,239
Speaker 2: I feel like it takes balls to fade. I'm a

822
00:41:28,320 --> 00:41:31,040
Speaker 2: crying my homes after, Like this guy has just been

823
00:41:31,160 --> 00:41:37,600
Speaker 2: raging all week. We're backing a Belichick team, awful win

824
00:41:38,239 --> 00:41:40,480
Speaker 2: a twenty one point. You know they scored twenty one

825
00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:43,200
Speaker 2: points last week. It just it feels like it is

826
00:41:43,239 --> 00:41:45,600
Speaker 2: gonna take some balls just because I just the guys

827
00:41:45,600 --> 00:41:47,200
Speaker 2: I talked to, like some pros are on it, but

828
00:41:47,239 --> 00:41:49,120
Speaker 2: most guys just want to avoid this game. They're happy

829
00:41:49,120 --> 00:41:50,799
Speaker 2: they won last week on the Patriots. Now they're gonna

830
00:41:50,840 --> 00:41:54,440
Speaker 2: avoid it. But yeah, it's either this or the Panthers.

831
00:41:54,480 --> 00:41:58,200
Speaker 2: And like in the chat, Mitchell said, not the fucking Panthers,

832
00:41:58,239 --> 00:41:58,960
Speaker 2: which I agree with.

833
00:41:59,000 --> 00:42:02,120
Speaker 1: We did them last I was I was gonna say,

834
00:42:02,520 --> 00:42:04,440
Speaker 1: how are the Panthers not our big boss?

835
00:42:04,560 --> 00:42:06,560
Speaker 2: And that's the only other option. That's why I'm trying

836
00:42:06,560 --> 00:42:11,400
Speaker 2: to go Patriots Panthers instead of that is that is

837
00:42:11,400 --> 00:42:12,520
Speaker 2: truly the biggest pall of that.

838
00:42:12,600 --> 00:42:15,239
Speaker 1: Of course I want to go Panthers. God damn it,

839
00:42:15,840 --> 00:42:17,240
Speaker 1: we have to go Panthers.

840
00:42:17,560 --> 00:42:20,560
Speaker 2: I'm gonna blow my nose while you yelled big all right.

841
00:42:21,400 --> 00:42:25,720
Speaker 1: The Carolina Panthers. They're gonna be get the graphics ready, Tito,

842
00:42:26,239 --> 00:42:29,640
Speaker 1: Screw you, Matt Mitchell. It doesn't matter. We're going with

843
00:42:30,000 --> 00:42:33,960
Speaker 1: the Carolina Panthers against the Atlanta Falcons. That is our

844
00:42:34,040 --> 00:42:42,680
Speaker 1: big ball. Better than we care. There we go. Matt

845
00:42:42,680 --> 00:42:48,520
Speaker 1: Mitchell's comment, Oh no, it's gonna be so Carolina. I'm

846
00:42:48,520 --> 00:42:52,320
Speaker 1: saying fing because we are distributed. This podcast gets distributed

847
00:42:52,400 --> 00:42:57,400
Speaker 1: so much more widely that some of the distribution platforms

848
00:42:57,400 --> 00:43:00,279
Speaker 1: have been giving us feedback that maybe we should use

849
00:43:00,360 --> 00:43:04,839
Speaker 1: fewer curse words. So I'm not I'm not quoting Matt

850
00:43:04,840 --> 00:43:07,720
Speaker 1: Mitchell verbati the last Game. I want to talk about.

851
00:43:07,960 --> 00:43:10,120
Speaker 2: Well, first, they want us not curse on a gambling

852
00:43:10,160 --> 00:43:12,000
Speaker 2: show that's meant for people with twenty one and up.

853
00:43:12,120 --> 00:43:13,719
Speaker 2: And I say tax three all the time. I mean,

854
00:43:13,719 --> 00:43:16,440
Speaker 2: I'm talking about breaking the lall every week, but curse.

855
00:43:17,000 --> 00:43:20,400
Speaker 1: We've given them that exact feedback we have said. Second,

856
00:43:20,640 --> 00:43:22,520
Speaker 1: you know it's a gambling show. You know it's a

857
00:43:22,560 --> 00:43:25,040
Speaker 1: free flowing conversation. You know it's for people who are

858
00:43:25,080 --> 00:43:28,320
Speaker 1: twenty one and older. Cursing is a part of the

859
00:43:28,320 --> 00:43:32,400
Speaker 1: the language and the romance of this. Yeah, I'm just saying.

860
00:43:32,960 --> 00:43:35,040
Speaker 1: I'm just saying, the motherfuckers don't want us to curse.

861
00:43:35,200 --> 00:43:36,040
Speaker 2: That's all I'm saying.

862
00:43:36,640 --> 00:43:39,120
Speaker 1: New York Giants at New Orleans plus six, Okay, we

863
00:43:39,160 --> 00:43:41,840
Speaker 1: didn't talk about this much. We liked the Saints initially

864
00:43:41,880 --> 00:43:43,160
Speaker 1: when it was like four or four and a half.

865
00:43:43,200 --> 00:43:45,120
Speaker 1: It got beat up a lot. Now I'm wondering, like,

866
00:43:45,560 --> 00:43:48,120
Speaker 1: is there another side of this. I know it's scary

867
00:43:48,160 --> 00:43:50,879
Speaker 1: to go back to the Tommy DeVito. Well, this team

868
00:43:50,920 --> 00:43:53,080
Speaker 1: is playing well because Andrew Thomas has been back, hasn't

869
00:43:53,080 --> 00:43:55,880
Speaker 1: missed a snapping three games. They've narrowed it down to

870
00:43:55,920 --> 00:43:58,000
Speaker 1: three really good wide receivers. We saw how well they

871
00:43:58,000 --> 00:44:02,240
Speaker 1: were playing against the Packers. Saquon is healthy. But really

872
00:44:02,280 --> 00:44:05,760
Speaker 1: this is fading Derek Carr and Dennis Allen who we hate.

873
00:44:05,800 --> 00:44:09,920
Speaker 1: Derek Carr uh thirty four percent in his career against

874
00:44:09,960 --> 00:44:12,279
Speaker 1: the spread as a favorite as a favorite of a

875
00:44:12,560 --> 00:44:14,560
Speaker 1: field goal and Moore nine and twenty six. I think

876
00:44:14,600 --> 00:44:17,480
Speaker 1: that's about thirty percent. Dennis Allen in his career six

877
00:44:17,520 --> 00:44:20,960
Speaker 1: and sixteen is a favorite. Like, we're fading the Saints here,

878
00:44:21,000 --> 00:44:21,880
Speaker 1: who we just don't like.

879
00:44:23,920 --> 00:44:25,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just don't get the number. That's what scared

880
00:44:25,719 --> 00:44:27,759
Speaker 2: me off. It's like, why is this not three three

881
00:44:27,800 --> 00:44:30,680
Speaker 2: and a half right that that feels right for the

882
00:44:30,680 --> 00:44:33,360
Speaker 2: way that this Giant seems been playing. How Tommy DeVito

883
00:44:33,400 --> 00:44:38,040
Speaker 2: has been playing just a weird number, Like I just

884
00:44:38,040 --> 00:44:39,359
Speaker 2: don't get it. And that's why I just really had

885
00:44:39,360 --> 00:44:41,759
Speaker 2: nothing to bet on it. Where it's like I took

886
00:44:41,800 --> 00:44:43,719
Speaker 2: a little of the six when I got up there

887
00:44:43,840 --> 00:44:46,680
Speaker 2: on the Giants, but for pennies, Like, nothing really bet

888
00:44:46,760 --> 00:44:48,080
Speaker 2: on this because I didn't really know what too much

889
00:44:48,120 --> 00:44:50,839
Speaker 2: to do with it, and you know, now I'm going

890
00:44:50,880 --> 00:44:53,520
Speaker 2: through app it's like they're one of the most public

891
00:44:53,560 --> 00:44:55,880
Speaker 2: dogs right now in the Giants. It's just I don't

892
00:44:55,960 --> 00:44:57,839
Speaker 2: like any of the any of the feeling for this one,

893
00:44:57,880 --> 00:44:59,640
Speaker 2: so I'll just pass on a chat. I got nothing

894
00:44:59,680 --> 00:44:59,960
Speaker 2: for it.

895
00:45:00,280 --> 00:45:04,720
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about, uh, the money line around Robin.

896
00:45:04,760 --> 00:45:07,400
Speaker 1: But before we get to that, the week fifteen contest

897
00:45:07,480 --> 00:45:12,400
Speaker 1: tiebreaker is total passing yards on Monday night football, Billy Ward,

898
00:45:12,520 --> 00:45:15,959
Speaker 1: our Action Network predictive analyst, writes a weekly article about

899
00:45:15,960 --> 00:45:18,680
Speaker 1: the tiebreaker strategy, and I link to that article can

900
00:45:18,680 --> 00:45:21,560
Speaker 1: be found in this episode's description. If you want to

901
00:45:21,600 --> 00:45:24,360
Speaker 1: leg up in the contest, good luck. I got three

902
00:45:24,560 --> 00:45:28,160
Speaker 1: teams that I'm thinking about for our moneyline underdog round Robin.

903
00:45:30,920 --> 00:45:35,160
Speaker 1: My dog blocks your dog, Your dog blocks mot dog.

904
00:45:36,480 --> 00:45:44,640
Speaker 1: Let's think about what the other two would be. Chicago, Carolina, Tampa, Igo, Carolina, Tampa, Tampa.

905
00:45:46,160 --> 00:45:48,719
Speaker 2: Who else should we go back to the well? Take

906
00:45:48,760 --> 00:45:49,840
Speaker 2: our boy, Timy Divido.

907
00:45:50,600 --> 00:45:53,920
Speaker 1: I'm wondering, like, like the I like the number there, Yeah.

908
00:45:54,040 --> 00:45:55,480
Speaker 2: I mean, I like, I like the big number. I

909
00:45:55,480 --> 00:45:57,560
Speaker 2: don't believe in it, but I like the number. Yeah,

910
00:45:58,440 --> 00:46:00,359
Speaker 2: and let's go with I mean this last one, I'll

911
00:46:00,360 --> 00:46:02,439
Speaker 2: call it the Chad Boy like the Jaguars. I don't

912
00:46:02,440 --> 00:46:05,719
Speaker 2: get it. But this is the weirdest line of the

913
00:46:05,719 --> 00:46:07,640
Speaker 2: week that we're not even talking about. I just I

914
00:46:07,680 --> 00:46:11,400
Speaker 2: got no idea what this line is. The Jaguars plus

915
00:46:11,440 --> 00:46:15,319
Speaker 2: three at home against this Ravens team that they're just

916
00:46:15,400 --> 00:46:17,719
Speaker 2: so much better than them across the board. This is

917
00:46:17,760 --> 00:46:20,160
Speaker 2: just such a weird number on a one leg at

918
00:46:20,200 --> 00:46:24,759
Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence. I mean, the guy crawled to twenty one

919
00:46:24,800 --> 00:46:27,440
Speaker 2: points against a terribly banged up Cleveland defense and got

920
00:46:27,440 --> 00:46:31,120
Speaker 2: outplayed by Joe Flacco. Now he's plus three at home.

921
00:46:31,239 --> 00:46:34,919
Speaker 2: I just do not I do not get this line. So, yeah,

922
00:46:34,960 --> 00:46:36,880
Speaker 2: we might as well either them or yeah, we got

923
00:46:36,960 --> 00:46:38,600
Speaker 2: to throw one of them in this money line round. Robin.

924
00:46:38,640 --> 00:46:41,680
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell was recommending Pittsburgh.

925
00:46:41,840 --> 00:46:44,360
Speaker 2: It's too low at this point. Now I'm looking at

926
00:46:44,640 --> 00:46:47,600
Speaker 2: plus one oh five. It's too low for us. All right,

927
00:46:47,640 --> 00:46:49,640
Speaker 2: let's go. We like the big ones.

928
00:46:51,040 --> 00:46:52,840
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell has never really listened to the show. He

929
00:46:52,840 --> 00:46:55,440
Speaker 1: doesn't understand the concept of what we like to do

930
00:46:55,520 --> 00:46:59,960
Speaker 1: with the most, though I'm surprised he didn't recommend a favorite.

931
00:47:01,080 --> 00:47:03,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, let's go Let's go Jags or plus

932
00:47:03,360 --> 00:47:03,880
Speaker 2: one forty.

933
00:47:04,719 --> 00:47:06,719
Speaker 1: This will be in Matt Mitchell's review, by the way,

934
00:47:06,840 --> 00:47:11,799
Speaker 1: and it'll kill You're like Matt Mitchell successfully recorded every

935
00:47:11,800 --> 00:47:14,480
Speaker 1: episode of the podcast this year, but he did not

936
00:47:14,600 --> 00:47:16,920
Speaker 1: listen because he doesn't understand the teams that we like

937
00:47:16,960 --> 00:47:20,279
Speaker 1: to put into the money line under Ron Robin, all right,

938
00:47:20,520 --> 00:47:24,760
Speaker 1: we're going to put in Chicago, Carolina, Tampa, the Giants,

939
00:47:24,880 --> 00:47:29,000
Speaker 1: and the Jags. Matt Mitchell is gonna scream at me, Simon.

940
00:47:29,320 --> 00:47:32,920
Speaker 1: Let's make Little Caesars the official pizza sponsor of the

941
00:47:33,040 --> 00:47:36,960
Speaker 1: NFL part of all of our game day the holidays

942
00:47:37,080 --> 00:47:39,799
Speaker 1: are nearly here, Simon, Instead of cookies, do you think

943
00:47:39,840 --> 00:47:43,880
Speaker 1: Santa would enjoy a Little Caesars hot and ready with

944
00:47:43,960 --> 00:47:45,800
Speaker 1: his glass of milk?

945
00:47:47,080 --> 00:47:49,160
Speaker 2: Pizza and milk go together perfectly.

946
00:47:49,800 --> 00:47:53,360
Speaker 1: Order online during our Pizza Pizza pregame one hour before

947
00:47:53,440 --> 00:47:56,560
Speaker 1: NFL games and get ready for some football and fun.

948
00:47:56,640 --> 00:47:59,799
Speaker 1: Choose your favorite Little Caesars pizza or pick the top

949
00:47:59,880 --> 00:48:02,400
Speaker 1: end you crave. Simon, what do you think about this

950
00:48:02,440 --> 00:48:05,640
Speaker 1: new motto I invented today right before the show. If

951
00:48:05,680 --> 00:48:09,840
Speaker 1: your first round pick was a colossal bust, cheer yourself

952
00:48:09,920 --> 00:48:12,280
Speaker 1: up with crazy crust.

953
00:48:13,640 --> 00:48:14,000
Speaker 2: Love it.

954
00:48:14,680 --> 00:48:18,160
Speaker 1: However your order your however you order your pizza, you win.

955
00:48:18,760 --> 00:48:23,040
Speaker 1: And speaking of winning, everyone scores with convenient delivery or

956
00:48:23,160 --> 00:48:26,000
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957
00:48:26,000 --> 00:48:29,920
Speaker 1: and grab some friends and enjoy a few slices during

958
00:48:30,440 --> 00:48:34,080
Speaker 1: the game. All right. As a reminder, second time, catch

959
00:48:34,080 --> 00:48:37,360
Speaker 1: every episode of The Favorites live on YouTube every Tuesday, Thursday,

960
00:48:37,360 --> 00:48:40,319
Speaker 1: and Sunday. If you're watching on YouTube, don't forget to

961
00:48:40,320 --> 00:48:42,320
Speaker 1: give us a like and subscribe to the Action Network

962
00:48:42,400 --> 00:48:46,760
Speaker 1: YouTube page. Simon, you mentioned Tampa Bay has not become

963
00:48:46,760 --> 00:48:48,239
Speaker 1: one of your biggest bets of the week, But what

964
00:48:48,440 --> 00:48:50,080
Speaker 1: are your biggest bets of the week right now?

965
00:48:53,000 --> 00:48:58,439
Speaker 2: Starting with Saturday? Definitely Pittsburgh like heavily bet it took

966
00:48:58,440 --> 00:49:00,719
Speaker 2: the two and a half, took the two. Don't mind

967
00:49:00,760 --> 00:49:03,280
Speaker 2: the one and a half either. If you're scared off,

968
00:49:03,920 --> 00:49:05,520
Speaker 2: deeze it. Go ahead and put in a teaser. It's

969
00:49:05,520 --> 00:49:07,040
Speaker 2: such a nice teaser number. Get up to seven and

970
00:49:07,040 --> 00:49:09,799
Speaker 2: a half. If if you're really scared off by new

971
00:49:09,840 --> 00:49:18,680
Speaker 2: England Patriots unfortunately getting up there the Bears, Tennessee Panthers Bills,

972
00:49:20,600 --> 00:49:22,440
Speaker 2: and I mean it was getting there. I mean it

973
00:49:22,440 --> 00:49:24,319
Speaker 2: probably is in my top five at this point with

974
00:49:24,400 --> 00:49:27,319
Speaker 2: the Ravens, but like, I don't know what to deal

975
00:49:27,360 --> 00:49:28,640
Speaker 2: with it. Like I just as soon as I went

976
00:49:28,640 --> 00:49:30,120
Speaker 2: back to three, I was like, I gotta grab us

977
00:49:30,120 --> 00:49:31,760
Speaker 2: because it's gonna go back up, and it just hasn't,

978
00:49:31,760 --> 00:49:34,160
Speaker 2: which is scaring the hell out of me. So yeah,

979
00:49:34,200 --> 00:49:38,480
Speaker 2: my chalkiest bet this week is definitely the Ravens. But yeah,

980
00:49:38,480 --> 00:49:40,000
Speaker 2: it's just I just don't know if me and ChIL

981
00:49:40,000 --> 00:49:42,440
Speaker 2: will get in the contest just because it's so chalky.

982
00:49:43,200 --> 00:49:44,640
Speaker 2: It's just an insane number.

983
00:49:45,920 --> 00:49:48,439
Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorite podcast is presented by Bet

984
00:49:48,480 --> 00:49:52,160
Speaker 1: three six five. Bet three six five doesn't do ordinary.

985
00:49:52,239 --> 00:49:54,359
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986
00:49:54,440 --> 00:49:56,560
Speaker 1: anyone else. Every day they power out the odds on

987
00:49:56,640 --> 00:49:58,520
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988
00:49:58,760 --> 00:50:02,239
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989
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990
00:50:04,400 --> 00:50:08,160
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991
00:50:08,160 --> 00:50:10,400
Speaker 1: out the Boost and see why it's never ordinary. A

992
00:50:10,480 --> 00:50:13,440
Speaker 1: bet three six ' five must be twenty one or

993
00:50:13,520 --> 00:50:18,040
Speaker 1: older and present in Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia,

994
00:50:18,680 --> 00:50:21,600
Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem one eight

995
00:50:21,640 --> 00:50:25,840
Speaker 1: hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms.

996
00:50:25,840 --> 00:50:28,279
Speaker 1: Conditions restrictions apply. All right. Before we get out of here,

997
00:50:28,600 --> 00:50:31,520
Speaker 1: we're joined by Action Network Director of Research, Evan Abrams.

998
00:50:32,000 --> 00:50:35,000
Speaker 1: We talk about them all the time on the show. Evan,

999
00:50:35,400 --> 00:50:36,319
Speaker 1: you get the last word.

1000
00:50:36,920 --> 00:50:40,080
Speaker 2: The last word with Evan Abrams.

1001
00:50:40,719 --> 00:50:41,800
Speaker 1: We're finished talking.

1002
00:50:42,400 --> 00:50:43,320
Speaker 2: What's up? Fellas?

1003
00:50:43,400 --> 00:50:47,839
Speaker 3: So Bill's Cowboys last two years Cowboys fifteen and one

1004
00:50:47,880 --> 00:50:50,160
Speaker 3: straight up, twelve and four against a spread at home,

1005
00:50:50,520 --> 00:50:52,480
Speaker 3: eight and eight straight up, eight and eight against the

1006
00:50:52,520 --> 00:50:56,400
Speaker 3: spread on the road. Of those sixteen road games, seven

1007
00:50:56,440 --> 00:50:59,840
Speaker 3: on turf, nine on grass, seven and zer against this

1008
00:51:00,000 --> 00:51:02,839
Speaker 3: spread seven zero straight up on turf, one in eight

1009
00:51:03,000 --> 00:51:05,440
Speaker 3: straight up, one in eight against the spread on grarass

1010
00:51:05,680 --> 00:51:09,080
Speaker 3: overall on turf twenty two and one straight up, nineteen

1011
00:51:09,160 --> 00:51:12,440
Speaker 3: and four against the spread the last two years. Now,

1012
00:51:12,760 --> 00:51:17,239
Speaker 3: you say yourself, well to your sample, Okay. Since twenty

1013
00:51:17,320 --> 00:51:20,480
Speaker 3: nineteen Dallas five and fourteen against the spread on the

1014
00:51:20,520 --> 00:51:23,680
Speaker 3: road versus grass teams, they are seventeen and five against

1015
00:51:23,680 --> 00:51:25,960
Speaker 3: the spread on the road versus turf teams, fourteen and

1016
00:51:26,000 --> 00:51:29,439
Speaker 3: one ats last fifteen. Now, listen, I like Buffalo this week,

1017
00:51:29,520 --> 00:51:32,680
Speaker 3: but crazy trend and going back just seems like their

1018
00:51:32,680 --> 00:51:35,319
Speaker 3: offense is kind of rolling on turf, So interesting see

1019
00:51:35,320 --> 00:51:40,920
Speaker 3: how it goes going forward. Buffalo obviously a turf field. Okay,

1020
00:51:41,239 --> 00:51:44,000
Speaker 3: what a resurgence by the Broncos defense. So the Broncos

1021
00:51:44,040 --> 00:51:47,360
Speaker 3: defense is actually third in EPA per play points added

1022
00:51:47,719 --> 00:51:50,560
Speaker 3: per play since week six. In weeks one through five

1023
00:51:50,600 --> 00:51:53,480
Speaker 3: they were thirty second last in the NFL. The Broncos

1024
00:51:53,520 --> 00:51:57,160
Speaker 3: defense allowed a completion percentage of seventy three point six

1025
00:51:57,239 --> 00:52:00,440
Speaker 3: percent through eight games type for the third highest in

1026
00:52:00,480 --> 00:52:03,680
Speaker 3: the Super Bowl era since that point fifty five point

1027
00:52:03,680 --> 00:52:07,000
Speaker 3: three lowest in the NFL. Crazy what they've been doing.

1028
00:52:07,120 --> 00:52:10,040
Speaker 3: So see if that continues against Detroit tough in the

1029
00:52:10,080 --> 00:52:14,760
Speaker 3: Lions then this week now finally, em betting football, travel,

1030
00:52:14,840 --> 00:52:17,400
Speaker 3: rest and prep time are kind of a frequently debated

1031
00:52:17,440 --> 00:52:21,200
Speaker 3: handicapping tool. It's noise versus substance, one fun angle, and

1032
00:52:21,239 --> 00:52:23,080
Speaker 3: this is just a piece of information. As I smile

1033
00:52:23,160 --> 00:52:26,279
Speaker 3: before I say, historically, it seems that it's difficult for

1034
00:52:26,280 --> 00:52:30,080
Speaker 3: teams to exceed expectations after playing in certain locations. Teams

1035
00:52:30,080 --> 00:52:32,359
Speaker 3: that play on the road coming off a road game

1036
00:52:32,400 --> 00:52:36,799
Speaker 3: in Atlanta, Vegas, LA, Miami, New Orleans, or New York

1037
00:52:37,200 --> 00:52:39,959
Speaker 3: this year four nine and one against the spread, last

1038
00:52:40,000 --> 00:52:43,080
Speaker 3: five years thirty forty nine and four thirty eight percent

1039
00:52:43,080 --> 00:52:46,600
Speaker 3: against the spread, last ten years sixty one, ninety eight

1040
00:52:46,640 --> 00:52:51,320
Speaker 3: and six thirty eight percent against the spread. Minnesota, Denver, Tampa,

1041
00:52:51,560 --> 00:52:54,520
Speaker 3: Houston this week. Of those eight teams that I met

1042
00:52:54,600 --> 00:52:57,600
Speaker 3: that are in those cities, six are in the bottom

1043
00:52:57,719 --> 00:52:59,680
Speaker 3: nine in the NFL. So if you look at the

1044
00:52:59,719 --> 00:53:02,840
Speaker 3: whole league, those teams all the way at the bottom.

1045
00:53:03,000 --> 00:53:05,640
Speaker 3: I can only say what the facts are, Chad.

1046
00:53:05,920 --> 00:53:07,319
Speaker 1: What am I supposed to take from that? But like

1047
00:53:07,320 --> 00:53:09,680
Speaker 1: those are set cities, Yeah.

1048
00:53:09,520 --> 00:53:13,200
Speaker 3: So basically party cities and just difficult to come off

1049
00:53:13,239 --> 00:53:17,080
Speaker 3: those games. So Minnesota, Denver, Tampa, Houston, all coming off

1050
00:53:17,120 --> 00:53:20,279
Speaker 3: those locations last week as a road game playing on

1051
00:53:20,320 --> 00:53:24,239
Speaker 3: the road again, bad this year, bad, recently, bad historically,

1052
00:53:24,480 --> 00:53:27,480
Speaker 3: just tough and they don't cover the spread in those situations.

1053
00:53:27,520 --> 00:53:29,640
Speaker 3: So no matter what the line is, just difficult to

1054
00:53:29,680 --> 00:53:30,759
Speaker 3: exceed expectations.

1055
00:53:31,600 --> 00:53:33,520
Speaker 1: I don't know what to do with that one. I

1056
00:53:33,560 --> 00:53:35,359
Speaker 1: guess I'm glad we're not really on any of those

1057
00:53:35,400 --> 00:53:53,160
Speaker 1: teams that are off of those locations. Thank you, Evan, excellent,

1058
00:53:53,239 --> 00:53:55,800
Speaker 1: excellent work as always, even if I don't understand the

1059
00:53:55,840 --> 00:53:58,440
Speaker 1: last one. Rams minus six and a half is the Foxhall.

1060
00:53:58,560 --> 00:54:01,520
Speaker 1: Simon says, Chicago three and a half half exec decision,

1061
00:54:01,560 --> 00:54:06,400
Speaker 1: Buffalo two and a half, Big Balls, Carolina. I think

1062
00:54:06,440 --> 00:54:10,640
Speaker 1: it's really Carolina three, even though in the contest is

1063
00:54:10,680 --> 00:54:14,000
Speaker 1: three and a half. But Carolina three is the best

1064
00:54:14,080 --> 00:54:17,680
Speaker 1: offer across the board. We got balls. We don't care.

1065
00:54:18,000 --> 00:54:21,320
Speaker 1: We're gonna say take it at three, Ron Robin, Chicago,

1066
00:54:22,000 --> 00:54:28,240
Speaker 1: Carolina Tap, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, New York Giants the Phase

1067
00:54:28,400 --> 00:54:32,040
Speaker 1: five for now, all right, I did lock in five

1068
00:54:32,080 --> 00:54:36,080
Speaker 1: games last night. Those five games Bears plus three and

1069
00:54:36,080 --> 00:54:41,680
Speaker 1: a half, Panthers plus three and a half, Titans minus

1070
00:54:41,680 --> 00:54:47,480
Speaker 1: two and a half, Bills minus two and a half,

1071
00:54:48,200 --> 00:54:52,279
Speaker 1: Bucks plus three and a half. That's it for now.

1072
00:54:52,320 --> 00:54:56,800
Speaker 1: We'll evaluate over the next few days. Very possible, Simon

1073
00:54:56,800 --> 00:54:59,000
Speaker 1: and I decide the Rams get in there. Somehow, I

1074
00:54:59,000 --> 00:55:01,560
Speaker 1: feel like the Bucks are on the on the fence.

1075
00:55:01,800 --> 00:55:04,160
Speaker 1: We might lose our courage on the box. We won't

1076
00:55:04,200 --> 00:55:06,319
Speaker 1: lose our courage on the panthers. I'll tell you that

1077
00:55:06,760 --> 00:55:11,200
Speaker 1: right now. Download us from Spotify, Apple Podcast, wherever we

1078
00:55:11,200 --> 00:55:13,840
Speaker 1: get your podcast. Rate review you subscribe with us five stars,

1079
00:55:13,960 --> 00:55:17,000
Speaker 1: say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until Sunday night,

1080
00:55:17,440 --> 00:55:20,320
Speaker 1: seven point thirty Eastern four Simon Hunter, I'm Chad Norman,

1081
00:55:20,840 --> 00:55:30,239
Speaker 1: Love you. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If

1082
00:55:30,360 --> 00:55:32,960
Speaker 1: you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1083
00:55:33,200 --> 00:55:35,839
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1084
00:55:35,920 --> 00:55:36,719
Speaker 1: hundred Gambler