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Speaker 1: The fact that Trump wants to fundamentally change the US

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Speaker 1: political system so there are no longer checks and balances

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Speaker 1: on his presidency. My principal enemies are inside the house.

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Speaker 1: They almost tried to kill me. It was this close.

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Speaker 1: Reality has punched him in the face. I think that

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Speaker 1: what Epstein represents two Americans are these assholes can get

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Speaker 1: away with anything.

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Speaker 2: Coming up next on this is Gavin Newsom. I just

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Speaker 2: sat down with Ian Brenner, the founder and president of

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Speaker 2: the Euraza Group started g zero Media. It's a fancy

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Speaker 2: way of saying a world leading expert on geopolitical risk,

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Speaker 2: on politics, on business and its intersection and of course

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Speaker 2: this week highlighted by the visit of the Crown Prince

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Speaker 2: of Saudi Arabia. There's so much to discuss around the world.

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Speaker 2: We are living in the trend lines that define this

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Speaker 2: moment and what to expect in the future. This is

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Speaker 2: Gavin Newsom and this is Ian Bremmer.

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Speaker 1: Ian Breunner, It's good to be with you, going to

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Speaker 1: be with you.

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Speaker 2: Where were you? We're in San Francisco. Yes, you made

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Speaker 2: it all the way out west. You are you a

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Speaker 2: product of East Coast? What are you doing out here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I grew up in Chelsea, Massachusetts, outside Boston, and

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Speaker 1: I live in New York.

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Speaker 2: Now, all right, well I like it.

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Speaker 1: I do like it.

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Speaker 2: Do you like it?

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Speaker 1: Can't move me out?

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Speaker 2: Okay, well I'm not trying. That's a good point, and

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Speaker 2: I'll get to we'll get to.

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Speaker 1: A little bit of the East coast here for a

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Speaker 1: few years. Where were you Stanford?

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Speaker 2: Of course?

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Speaker 1: Sorry, of course, Hey they let me in the projects,

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Speaker 1: let me in Stanford. I'm going to drop it right away.

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Speaker 2: You're at Columbia University as well. You're all over. But look,

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Speaker 2: I want to let's contextualize because I think for me,

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Speaker 2: i'd like to sort of level set about, you know,

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Speaker 2: sort of in the Tom Freeman zone of what world

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Speaker 2: are we living in? I mean, what world are we

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Speaker 2: living in? Sort of globally? What are the trend lines

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Speaker 2: that define the world we're living in? What's your sense

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Speaker 2: of the moment we're in globally?

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Speaker 1: Geopolitically, the biggest thing that is so unusual, and you're

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Speaker 1: in my histories, is that the United States we are

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Speaker 1: now driving the greatest level of geopolitical uncertainty. Right, It's

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Speaker 1: not China, it's not Europe, Russia is certainly a problem,

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Speaker 1: but comparatively small. No, it's the question of what does

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Speaker 1: the United States want. It's whiplash from one administration to

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Speaker 1: the next, and it is absolutely an unwillingness to be

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Speaker 1: the reliable partner on the set of rules that the

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Speaker 1: Americans had instituted and mostly, though not always live by,

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Speaker 1: collective security, free market trading, you know, the rule of law,

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Speaker 1: foreign aid. I mean, all of these things, huge questions

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Speaker 1: and countries all over the world, especially our allies, saying

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Speaker 1: we don't believe that the United States is reliable going forward.

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Speaker 2: So the issue of reliability, so you talking, You've written

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Speaker 2: a lot about this notion of unpredictability reliability, but never

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Speaker 2: both aunt and that's the world now. We're living in

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Speaker 2: this notion of being unreliable and unpredictable. That's anomalist, even

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Speaker 2: by Trump on completely. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean they've been through Trump one point zero

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Speaker 1: and I think a lot of people assume Trump two

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Speaker 1: point zero would be the same, and they were really wrong, right,

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Speaker 1: So much more consolidated power under Trump, so much more

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Speaker 1: willingness to break the furniture on tariffs, you know, for example,

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Speaker 1: I'm on trying to do peace deals for example, just

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Speaker 1: a very, very assertive this is my opportunity. My principal

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Speaker 1: enemies are inside the house. They almost tried to kill me,

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Speaker 1: it was this close. And so I have to be

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Speaker 1: a revolutionary president.

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Speaker 2: And you've used that word revolution, and some people have

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Speaker 2: boked at that, saying that may be overstated, though you've

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Speaker 2: made the point not dissimilar to Gorbachev himself. Some of

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Speaker 2: the revolutions we saw, at least the economic revolution in

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Speaker 2: China that you can certainly make the case that Trump's

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Speaker 2: policies visa either west of the globe is revolutionary.

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Speaker 1: I think that in our lifetimes, and this is why

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Speaker 1: the geopolitical uncertainty from the US is so great. There

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Speaker 1: have really been three attempted revolutions that have had global impact.

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Speaker 1: The first Dengzhopang, an economic revolution not a political revolution

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Speaker 1: in China, successful and brings China ultimately into the WTO

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Speaker 1: and into the global economy. The second under Gorbachev, when

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Speaker 1: I cut my teeth as a graduate student, my first

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Speaker 1: trip outside the US was to the Soviet Union in

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Speaker 1: eighty six when he had first come in. This was

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Speaker 1: a political and an economic revolution completely failed, and the

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Speaker 1: Soviet Union collapsed as a consequence, and the third a

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Speaker 1: political though I would argue, not an economic revolution here

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Speaker 1: in the United States by Trump, and we don't know

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Speaker 1: if it going to be successful or not. And by

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Speaker 1: the way, Steve Bannon would completely agree with that, he

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Speaker 1: wants it to be successful. You absolutely don't. A lot

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Speaker 1: of people feel very differently, but the fact that Trump

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Speaker 1: wants to fundamentally change the US political system so there

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Speaker 1: are no longer checks and balances on his presidency, either

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Speaker 1: from inside the administration or from the party, or from

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Speaker 1: the administrative state, or from the judiciary. I mean these

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Speaker 1: are or from the media. I mean, as we saw,

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Speaker 1: you know, you and I are taping this on a

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Speaker 1: day that Trump, you know, went directly after ABC and

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Speaker 1: said they should have their license taken away. Didn't like

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Speaker 1: a question, tells the head of the FCC you should

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Speaker 1: be looking into that right now. That is not historically

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Speaker 1: something that is compatible with the United States. But under

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Speaker 1: a political revolution it might be.

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Speaker 2: And you say, not an economic revolution, a political revolution,

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Speaker 2: but you just referenced the economic revolution in China. Some

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Speaker 2: have equated the economic policy shifts in the United States

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Speaker 2: two aspects of Chinese state capitalism. This notion that we

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Speaker 2: have seen, or not just notion, but we've seen some

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Speaker 2: of the transactions that have come with the ten percent

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Speaker 2: ownership into Intel. Obviously these golden shares with US steel

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Speaker 2: in Nvidia and AMD, even MP materials here in the

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Speaker 2: state of California, disproportion number of California based companies aspects

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Speaker 2: sort of component parts of state capitalism, they'll have Have

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Speaker 2: they not entered into political industrial policy?

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, you just picked all the big ones right, by

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Speaker 1: the way, So I mean it's not like you can

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Speaker 1: say that across the US economy at all. The biggest

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Speaker 1: American companies are spending lots of money on the Trump

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Speaker 1: administration to ensure that they can continue to essentially capture

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Speaker 1: the regulatory environment, not the other way around. So my

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Speaker 1: view is that there are similarities between China and the

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Speaker 1: United States in the way the economy runs. In China,

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Speaker 1: the state captures the corporations. In the United States, the

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Speaker 1: corporations capture the state right where in Europe, right the

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Speaker 1: state actually stands pretty much outside and its superpower is

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Speaker 1: a regulatory superpower, which sounds great for the social contract

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Speaker 1: until you realize that there's no growth attached to it exactly.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So from a perspective, you know, back to sort

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Speaker 2: of the alliance, there's alliances and now this notion of

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Speaker 2: predictability or unpredictability reliability. Would you describe, I mean, an

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Speaker 2: alliance first framework that sort of defines the post World

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Speaker 2: War II order the last seventy five eighty years to now,

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Speaker 2: an American first framework or is it an economic first

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Speaker 2: framework or is it just trump an impulse in the

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Speaker 2: context of what his revolutionary construct or ideological frame references.

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Speaker 1: Well, so, one of the reasons why I don't think

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Speaker 1: it's an economic revolution is because even though Trump might

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Speaker 1: be interested in some of that stuff, reality has punched

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Speaker 1: him in the face. So you know, for example, he

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Speaker 1: tried to start a trade war with China and forced

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Speaker 1: them to bend the knee. He tried to put an

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Speaker 1: effective economic boycott on the Chinese. It didn't work. CHESI

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Speaker 1: Ping wasn't getting on the phone and jumping and saying please, sir,

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Speaker 1: can you know?

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Speaker 2: Can you did that surprise you? The extent to which

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Speaker 2: China leveraged, particularly rare minerals, their strategic strengths in relationship

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Speaker 2: to that, do you think that I mean, was that

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Speaker 2: a surprise, not only from your perspective, but do you

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Speaker 2: think that surprised the Trump administry or.

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Speaker 1: It clearly surprises the Trump adminstration. It The part that

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Speaker 1: surprised me was not the capabilities that the Chinese had

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Speaker 1: developed in critical minerals and earth. They've been building these

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Speaker 1: up for decades. It's very obvious that this is like

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Speaker 1: a really strategic move to have that leverage. But what

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Speaker 1: surprised me, and I think surprised a lot of people

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Speaker 1: in the field, was the view that their ability to

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Speaker 1: suddenly actually regulate through licensing and have a scalpol that

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Speaker 1: would allow you to really hit American companies and not

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Speaker 1: necessarily hit other companies. And to be fair, like, when

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Speaker 1: they announce these licensing agreements, suddenly everyone is trying to

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Speaker 1: make applications to China, and it's thousands of applications and

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Speaker 1: they don't have the staff to actually deal with it.

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Speaker 1: So it did cause damage. For example, China's relations with

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Speaker 1: the EU right now are markedly worse than they were

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Speaker 1: a few months ago, in part because they weren't as

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Speaker 1: capable to really use this as a lever just against

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Speaker 1: the United States and just against American companies. But their

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Speaker 1: willingness to do it, together with their getting up to

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Speaker 1: speed really really fast. I think was surprised everyone to

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Speaker 1: at least a degree. And the fact is that the

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Speaker 1: Trump administration is not prepared to have this fight with

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Speaker 1: the Chinese sign. What does that mean? In part, that

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Speaker 1: means that the Americans need friends, need allies. It turns

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Speaker 1: out inflation is higher than Trump thought it was going

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Speaker 1: to be, And what does that mean. It turns out

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Speaker 1: that like a lot of those tariffs on food and

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Speaker 1: on coffee and bananas other things, turns out, well, you've

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Speaker 1: got to take those off. Turns out that Trump doesn't

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Speaker 1: actually probably doesn't have the ability to use AEPA individually

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Speaker 1: as the president as everything as a national emergency, no

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Speaker 1: matter what country, no matter how poor or how rich,

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Speaker 1: how small, how big, And that the Supreme Court least

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Speaker 1: the initial arguments look like that's going to hit him

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Speaker 1: back pretty hard. All of that implies that Trump's he

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Speaker 1: may have an idea, grand grand idea, that I'm the

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Speaker 1: biggest actor out there, and therefore the law of the jungle,

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Speaker 1: I'm the predator, and so as the apex predator, everyone

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Speaker 1: has to bow to me. But you know, even the

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Speaker 1: apex predator like picks off like a wounded wildebeast, but

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Speaker 1: doesn't go after the entire herd. Simultaneously, turns out it's

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Speaker 1: not really working for MS. I think that in the

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Speaker 1: past few weeks we've actually passed the tipping point where

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Speaker 1: Trump's global unilateralism is really getting constrained.

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Speaker 2: So to peak Trump in that and AIBA is the

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Speaker 2: International Economic Mercy Powers Act, of which Trump is asserted.

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Speaker 2: It's been litigated in the Supreme Court that he has

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Speaker 2: the unilateral authority without congressional approval to move forward with

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Speaker 2: these ranks. But even of course, if the Supreme Court

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Speaker 2: udicates against that authority under the MEER, he's still substantially

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Speaker 2: confined other avenues to advance the two but.

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Speaker 1: It would take time and expectations for where the global

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Speaker 1: blended tariff average from the United States would be, it

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Speaker 1: would probably be three to six points lower than they presently.

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Speaker 2: Which is roughly what is it? Wait, it's seventeen. It

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Speaker 2: depends on.

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Speaker 1: The add It depends on whether you're saying what he

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Speaker 1: has or what they're actually implementing, but something between thirteen

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Speaker 1: and seventeen.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's high since the nineteen.

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Speaker 1: Thirties without anyway, and that's the single biggest thing he's

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Speaker 1: done on the global stage so far.

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Speaker 2: So it seems to me that's the entire policy. I mean,

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Speaker 2: every single thing is leveraged, every conversation is leveraged. In

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Speaker 2: the context of that cudgel, isn't it a tariff cudgel

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Speaker 2: with him?

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Speaker 1: I mean the Russia Ukraine thing, clearly, it's whether or not.

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Speaker 1: You remember when the Ukrainians, when Zelenski came to the Oval,

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Speaker 1: that horrible shambalic meeting and he cut off intelligence and

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Speaker 1: defense support for a week or two. That wasn't trade,

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Speaker 1: but my god, that was important. Sent a big message

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Speaker 1: to the Europeans. There have similar in terms of the

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Speaker 1: Abraham Accords and the F thirty five, so American military

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Speaker 1: capabilities also have that. I would say that's another significant

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Speaker 1: piece of.

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Speaker 2: So let's let's reinforce that in the context of the

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Speaker 2: meeting that the President just had in the Oval Office

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Speaker 2: of the Ground Prince Arabia Yea talking about transactions around

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Speaker 2: F thirty fives, talking about potentially well though ipparently they

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Speaker 2: didn't talk about the Abraham courts, but the price of

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Speaker 2: bit they did a bit to pull potentially to get

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Speaker 2: Saudi Arabia as part of that. So give me you're

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Speaker 2: over under in terms of that relationship, which is to

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Speaker 2: me fascinating also deeply predictable, because there's a sort of

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Speaker 2: a crony component of that as well. There's a little

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Speaker 2: bit of self dealing that seems to attach itself, respectively

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Speaker 2: from my perspective, to all things Saudi Arabia and the

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Speaker 2: Trump and Trump family. But how did you perceive that

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Speaker 2: meeting the importance of it, a little bit of the

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Speaker 2: controversy around it, particularly a relationship to the murder the

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Speaker 2: Washington Post reporter, what was your sense of that?

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Speaker 1: Well, there's so much to unpack here. Saudi Arabia today,

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Speaker 1: over thirty million population in the region is transforming itself

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Speaker 1: in ways that if you haven't traveled to the Kingdom recently,

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Speaker 1: is shocking in a positive ways, incredibly positive way that

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Speaker 1: this Muhammed bin Salomon, if there were elections in Saudi

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Speaker 1: Arabia would almost certainly win eighty eighty five ninety percent

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Speaker 1: of the votes. He is Women were eleven percent of

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Speaker 1: the workforce ten years ago. They're now thirty six percent

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Speaker 1: in ten years. It's like a reverse Iranian Revolution, right,

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Speaker 1: they're diversifying the economy, you know, So it's not just

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Speaker 1: you know, oil and petro cam it's actually meant to

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Speaker 1: and it's technology and tourism, and it's sports, and it's health,

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Speaker 1: and it's all of these comedies, even to that comedy

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Speaker 1: festival recently. Absolutely, and so you know, you go and

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Speaker 1: you see that suddenly, like men and women are actually

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Speaker 1: able to talk to each other. And I remember the

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Speaker 1: first time I went to Saudi Arabia, local men referred to

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Speaker 1: women as MBOs moving black objects because they were completely

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Speaker 1: covered by the nikab and you could couldn't see them

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Speaker 1: aside from this little slit, you know, with their eyes.

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Speaker 1: And they certainly weren't playing any role in terms of

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Speaker 1: social public culture. That has completely changed. There are no

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Speaker 1: religious police on the streets anymore. All of that is extraordinary.

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Speaker 1: So any country in the world, not just the United States,

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Speaker 1: that is thinking about what are the what are the

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Speaker 1: future oriented governments that you should be engaging with, Saudi

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Speaker 1: would be on your list. Having said that, the Koshoji assassination,

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Speaker 1: which the CIA said, Mohamed Trump under Trump said Mohammed

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Speaker 1: bin Salman was directly aware of right and then so

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Speaker 1: suddenly today and no one is you know, Kashoji is

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Speaker 1: no longer a thing in the sense that it was

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Speaker 1: many years ago. You got Davos in the desert, all

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Speaker 1: of the global the bankers, the industry leaders from the US,

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Speaker 1: other countries, they're all going, it's not like the Saudis

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Speaker 1: are suddenly a pariah state, not at all. And I

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Speaker 1: think Biden made mistakes on that, frankly, not reading the room.

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Speaker 1: But but for Trump to then take a question and

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Speaker 1: pretend that not only did this incident not happen, to

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Speaker 1: whitewash it and say, well, Mohammad ben Salomon, he knew

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Speaker 1: nothing about that, to say that, well, this guy Kishoji

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Speaker 1: was a bad guy, Like what, you don't need to do.

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Speaker 2: Any of that.

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Speaker 1: And yet it's almost like he takes pleasure in the

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Speaker 1: opportunity in undermining the values that the United States has

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Speaker 1: at least tried to stand for for much of its

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Speaker 1: recent history.

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Speaker 2: Net positive, Yeah, I mean, and it was he was

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Speaker 2: treated like ahead of state, even though it's technically not

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Speaker 2: the head of state.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, they're still looking.

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Speaker 2: But is it relates? So it gives us opportunity to

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Speaker 2: just maybe then to get into the Middle East and

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Speaker 2: the Middle East politics a little bit. The Abraham McCord

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Speaker 2: is a big success for the Trump administration one.

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Speaker 1: Point arguably his largest success, largest success.

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Speaker 2: And what I love about you, you call balls and strung.

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Speaker 2: You're nonpartisan and you're able to assess things without a

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Speaker 2: deeply political lens, which I think is critical and important.

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Speaker 2: I think it's important for us I to acknowledge that,

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Speaker 2: particularly folks in my party. But it relates to where

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Speaker 2: we are today and the ability to build on that

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Speaker 2: success and the relationship to this quote unquote Middle East

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Speaker 2: peace deal, the most significant you know, Trump sort of triumph,

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Speaker 2: and the challenges that persist in Gaza Hamas, who appears

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Speaker 2: not to have any interest in in you know, eliminating

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Speaker 2: or at least setting down their arms, the challenges with

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Speaker 2: the next phase of that peace deal, the importance of

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Speaker 2: Saudi Arabia recognizing Israel, but first Israel recognizing a Palestinian state.

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Speaker 2: How do you feel a state of the Middle East?

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Speaker 1: Yes today, Well so first balls and strikes. Let's give

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Speaker 1: Trump credit where credit is due. Nobody thought that Hamas

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Speaker 1: was going to actually release all of the living Israeli hostages,

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Speaker 1: and they did with Trump pressure and it was at

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Speaker 1: the United Nations General Assembly, and I remember when he

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Speaker 1: stood up and the speech was way too long, almost

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Speaker 1: an hour, and there were only two applause lines, one

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Speaker 1: when he finally finished and the other when he said,

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Speaker 1: you want to end the war, Hamas has to let

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Speaker 1: the hostage go. And everyone, almost everyone in the rom

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Speaker 1: applot did that, and so but no one thought it

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Speaker 1: was going to get done. He got it done. He

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Speaker 1: got it done by also orchestrating a summit on the

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Speaker 1: sidelines of the UN General Assembly. And you were there

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Speaker 1: in New York with me as well, with all of

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Speaker 1: the leaders from the region, not the Israelis, saying here's

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Speaker 1: the twenty or twenty one point plan, depending on what

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Speaker 1: we talked to. That they then mostly got agreement on,

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Speaker 1: and recently they just got it passed by.

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Speaker 2: The Security Council, which is remarkable.

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Speaker 1: Which is remarkable, the Russians and the Chinese sustained, and

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Speaker 1: everyone else was.

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Speaker 2: A little bit. They were a little bit on the

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Speaker 2: side of they were chippy. They were chippy, that's the

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Speaker 2: right word. Yeah, yeah, no, but that was another remark.

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Speaker 1: But to go from a position where the United States

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Speaker 1: had been almost isolated completely on the global stage, and

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Speaker 1: it's support Israel to having the US lead diplomacy with

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Speaker 1: the Security Council voting in favorite only two ebstensions for

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Speaker 1: American adversaries, that's an extraordinary wine. Give them credit. When

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Speaker 1: Trump went to the Kanestant and gave that speech, he

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Speaker 1: was a hell of a lot more popular there than

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Speaker 1: Prime Minister Not Yeah, who is right, clearly, So that's

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Speaker 1: the positive. Negative is getting this deal from ceasefire to

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Speaker 1: a Palestinian state is really really not looking very likely

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Speaker 1: right now. And that's why the Saudis were not prepared

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Speaker 1: to show any leg on the Abraham accurts. And when

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Speaker 1: I was in riad same thing, like, yeah, yeah, we're

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Speaker 1: very hap we'd like to do it, we'd like to engage,

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Speaker 1: we'd like the technology, all that stuff, but not until

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Speaker 1: we see a clear pathway to a Palisadian state, and

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Speaker 1: right now, with this leadership in Israel, it is not happening.

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Speaker 1: So you saw Trump just brought the Kazakhs into the

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Speaker 1: Abraham Accords. You see that I saw that week.

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Speaker 2: They're not even it was an unrelated party, well, but

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Speaker 2: it was just to show momentum.

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Speaker 1: They already had relations with Israel. For decades. It's like

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Speaker 1: when Trump announced that he ended the Azeri Armenia War,

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Speaker 1: which is great because they weren't actually fight.

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Speaker 2: A bel prize the ten piece deals, I know.

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Speaker 1: But the point is that the Abraham Accords are not

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Speaker 1: going to include the Saudiast for the foreseeable future. That

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Speaker 1: is the future.

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Speaker 2: Where are we? What's your over under? And I've been

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Speaker 2: reading some of the things you put out. How concerned

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Speaker 2: are you about Hesbala in Lebanon? How concerned are you

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Speaker 2: about what's happening by route or not happening. Where do

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Speaker 2: you think you see things going in the short term.

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Speaker 1: Well, the Lebanese government after the ceasefire said that they

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Speaker 1: were going to work to ensure that the heavy weaponry

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Speaker 1: that Hesbola had in the south of the country near

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Speaker 1: the Israeli border. They were going to destroy that critical

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Speaker 1: infrastructure and make sure that those weapons weren't there. They've

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Speaker 1: done none of that in a couple of cases, a

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Speaker 1: couple of cases where US has intelligence provides the Lebanese government,

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Speaker 1: they respond to that. But this has not been proactive.

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Speaker 1: Nobody thinks they're going to actually get this done, and

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Speaker 1: that means that Israel is going to start mowing the

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Speaker 1: grass again, and that means more strikes by the Israelis.

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Speaker 1: I do I expect it now? Whether or not that

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Speaker 1: is limited strikes drones, missiles, aircraft just across the border,

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Speaker 1: or whether that includes special forces insertion in Beirut. There's

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Speaker 1: a big, big difference between those two things. Either could happen,

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Speaker 1: But I'd be stunned if we have this staying quiescent

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Speaker 1: over the coming months.

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Speaker 2: Tony Blair heading this effort in Gaza, in Gaza, what's

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Speaker 2: your over under on success in that respect? I mean,

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Speaker 2: the idea if Hamas is not going to put down

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Speaker 2: their arms, of an international security force coming in armed

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Speaker 2: security force seems less likely under those circumstances, or am

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Speaker 2: I off less likely?

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Speaker 1: But also everyone that's been traveling to this coordination center

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Speaker 1: that they've set up just on the Israeli side of

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Speaker 1: the Gaza border, and it has like one floor with

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Speaker 1: the Israelis, one floor with the Americans, then one floor

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Speaker 1: with the multinationals, and apparently, first of all much bigger,

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Speaker 1: much more capable than people think, the US, much more

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Speaker 1: directly involved now in terms of ensuring that humanitarian eight

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Speaker 1: is getting in the Israelis are in some of the meetings,

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Speaker 1: they are not in all of the meetings. So there

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Speaker 1: is an effort to really have people that are capable

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Speaker 1: of moving the ball. And also, as the administration is

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Speaker 1: called it BB sitting, so senior officials that are constraining

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Speaker 1: him so that he can't destroy the progress in the process. Now,

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Speaker 1: also Tony Blair controversial figure, but is well regarded, well

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Speaker 1: respected in the Gulf. He brings farm more political influence

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Speaker 1: in leadership to Agaza role than anyone else plausible. Interestingly,

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Speaker 1: the Jordanians have been really opposed to him, and I

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Speaker 1: haven't been able to figure out why.

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Speaker 2: No history when he was Prime minister and with the king,

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Speaker 2: I mean.

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Speaker 1: With the rock A little bit sure, but still surprising

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Speaker 1: to me. I mean it might be that Abu Mazen

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Speaker 1: as opposed to it and has used the Jordanians to say, hey,

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Speaker 1: you know, sort of he's going to be tough on us.

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure, but I think that everyone would be

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Speaker 1: fortunate to have Blair in this role.

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Speaker 2: Frankly, it was your perspective, was the right thing to

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Speaker 2: do to go in and go after those nuclear facilities

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Speaker 2: of the United States and those strikes, Well.

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Speaker 1: They worked right. I mean, you know you're talking about

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Speaker 1: intelligence estimates, are you probably delayed the Iranian program by

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Speaker 1: some twelve to eight months eighteen months, and the Iranians

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Speaker 1: were incapable of any response, marshaling any response to Israel

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Speaker 1: or the United States. Most of it was done by

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Speaker 1: the Israelis. The Americans saw that that was successful and

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Speaker 1: nothing happening. Trump wanted to get in, but then the

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Speaker 1: war was over in short order and no American boots

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Speaker 1: on the ground. So look on balance with an Iranian

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Speaker 1: government member. Trump had bb in the Oval Office and

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Speaker 1: while he was there announced I'm going to start engaging

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Speaker 1: with the Iranians. I want to see if we can

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Speaker 1: get to a diplomatic deal. And there was some effort,

436
00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:32,399
Speaker 1: and the Iranians weren't really willing to go there. So

437
00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:35,720
Speaker 1: ultimately that meant I mean, this is not like the

438
00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:40,040
Speaker 1: Gaza situation. Certainly not like Cutter, where the Israelis made

439
00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:42,000
Speaker 1: strikes the Americans weren't happy about it. In the case

440
00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:44,960
Speaker 1: of Iran, the United States was pretty much on board

441
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:47,760
Speaker 1: with Okay, we're gonna let you guys have at it.

442
00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:51,639
Speaker 2: Let's go back to China. It's interesting to me just

443
00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:53,880
Speaker 2: with a weaker economy. We talked a little bit, I mean,

444
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:56,480
Speaker 2: this notion that they were able to flex with a

445
00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:59,760
Speaker 2: little more precision and push Trump back. Although we still

446
00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:03,600
Speaker 2: have you outrageously high tariffs and that's going to impact

447
00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:08,080
Speaker 2: already impacting prices as you suggest, but particularly this Christmas

448
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:10,880
Speaker 2: where I think eighty percent of our toys come from China,

449
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:12,680
Speaker 2: et cetera. So we're going to feel those impacts, and

450
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:15,719
Speaker 2: they're starting to actually make I mean, people are starting

451
00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:18,160
Speaker 2: to absorb the realities of these terriffs in a way

452
00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 2: those first few months they appeared not to be And

453
00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:23,439
Speaker 2: so there's back to this notion that certain realities are

454
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:26,280
Speaker 2: hitting Trump in the face in terms of how he positions.

455
00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:29,840
Speaker 2: But give me a sense, you know, the Biden years

456
00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:34,760
Speaker 2: vis a vis China, how Trump is posturing that relationship

457
00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:37,520
Speaker 2: with she. Where do you see things going even beyond

458
00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:41,680
Speaker 2: the situational politics today around the immediate you know, sort

459
00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:44,520
Speaker 2: of that we sort of decompressing a little bit of

460
00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:48,080
Speaker 2: that stress after that APEC meeting, Where do you see

461
00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:51,320
Speaker 2: things going with China in the next two five years.

462
00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:56,399
Speaker 1: The Chinese are very confident right now. They believe that

463
00:25:56,480 --> 00:26:00,320
Speaker 1: the United States as a country that is less Reliedle

464
00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 1: is creating big opportunities for China. Long term, US shuts down, usaid,

465
00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 1: who's going to be the principle on the ground in

466
00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:12,440
Speaker 1: the global South? Going to be the Chinese. US doesn't

467
00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:13,920
Speaker 1: show up with the cops summit that you just went

468
00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:19,320
Speaker 1: to in Brazil. Who's driving technology at scale for post

469
00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:24,240
Speaker 1: carbon energy? The Chinese? The Americans are scaring off brown

470
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:28,399
Speaker 1: people that might want visas to get top higher education

471
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:31,359
Speaker 1: in the United States. Who's now trying to make visas

472
00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:35,119
Speaker 1: easier for people to come in the Chinese? So long term,

473
00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:37,600
Speaker 1: Xi Zhiping is going to be there, in all likelihood

474
00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:40,280
Speaker 1: a lot longer than Trump is. He believes this is

475
00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:45,680
Speaker 1: an opportunity. I would argue he is also overplaying his hand.

476
00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:49,800
Speaker 1: She is in which respect or what respect that when

477
00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:53,080
Speaker 1: he decided to put that loaded gun on the table

478
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:56,920
Speaker 1: that said, here is what I can do in weaponizing

479
00:26:57,320 --> 00:27:00,800
Speaker 1: these critical minerals that are utterly essential for everybody in

480
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:06,440
Speaker 1: the advanced industrial economies. Suddenly you have Europeans, Japanese, South Koreans, Australians,

481
00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:09,760
Speaker 1: Canadians saying, okay, we can't rely on the United States,

482
00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:13,720
Speaker 1: but these guys are actually a fundamental national security problem

483
00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:16,399
Speaker 1: right now, and we've got to find a way to

484
00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:20,240
Speaker 1: work together, all of us so that we have alternatives.

485
00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:23,080
Speaker 1: In the same way that the Europeans had their eye

486
00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:27,520
Speaker 1: off the ball on energy and allowed themselves to be

487
00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:31,560
Speaker 1: dependent on Russia a really bad idea for decades. In

488
00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:34,080
Speaker 1: the same way that the Americans did that with semiconductors

489
00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:39,160
Speaker 1: and TSMC right off of the Chinese coast, really bad

490
00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:42,399
Speaker 1: idea for decades. All of us have done this on

491
00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:46,399
Speaker 1: critical minerals and rare arts. So yeah, I think if

492
00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:50,320
Speaker 1: you're China, you should have just you know, as they say,

493
00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:53,679
Speaker 1: you know the sun Zoo right when your enemy is

494
00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:58,600
Speaker 1: making a mistake, let them and don't intervene. And I

495
00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:02,240
Speaker 1: think that the Chinese actually sort of have played a

496
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:03,240
Speaker 1: little too aggressively.

497
00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:07,000
Speaker 2: Recently, the new Prime Minister of Japan said she would

498
00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:09,560
Speaker 2: intervene on behalf of Taiwan.

499
00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:10,040
Speaker 1: If they were attacked.

500
00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:12,919
Speaker 2: If they were attacked. The United States has had a

501
00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:16,800
Speaker 2: curate I mean, Biden administration seemed to have multiple positions

502
00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:18,440
Speaker 2: on this, and I don't mean that as an indictment,

503
00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:21,199
Speaker 2: but this notion of ambiguity I think was part of

504
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:22,800
Speaker 2: a little bit of the strategy.

505
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:25,080
Speaker 1: Didn't help that. Nancy Pelosi also decided to go play

506
00:28:25,080 --> 00:28:27,480
Speaker 1: by herself under the Biden administration.

507
00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:33,080
Speaker 2: And there was there was some frictions there. We're what's

508
00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:37,199
Speaker 2: the over under on China, moving on Taiwan in the

509
00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 2: next decade.

510
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:41,520
Speaker 1: Oh decade is a long time, right, I mean in

511
00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:44,640
Speaker 1: the next over the course of the Trump administration, I

512
00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:46,400
Speaker 1: would say, actually quite low low.

513
00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:48,520
Speaker 2: And what would you say under the course of the

514
00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:51,320
Speaker 2: is that just because of years or because of policy

515
00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:51,840
Speaker 2: with Trump?

516
00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:55,240
Speaker 1: I think it's both. It's in part because the Chinese

517
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:58,840
Speaker 1: don't yet have the military capabilities in place, and you

518
00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:02,080
Speaker 1: see every month there's a new corruption scandal that's hitting

519
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:04,880
Speaker 1: the inside the top levels of the Chinese military. So

520
00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:08,000
Speaker 1: how much would she want to rely on that to

521
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:12,480
Speaker 1: ensure with a military that hasn't been used in you know,

522
00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:15,080
Speaker 1: sort of battle conditions the way like the Russians have,

523
00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:17,320
Speaker 1: for example, and learn some things maybe they didn't want

524
00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:20,080
Speaker 1: to learn at the beginning of that war. But then

525
00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:22,600
Speaker 1: you also have the fact that the Chinese sea that

526
00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:26,520
Speaker 1: Trump isn't looking for a trade war, like recognizes that

527
00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:29,480
Speaker 1: he needs to bend the knee, that he needs to

528
00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:32,600
Speaker 1: find a way not to cause problems for China. There's

529
00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:35,760
Speaker 1: a mutually assured economic destruction between the two countries for

530
00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:38,680
Speaker 1: now at least, even if the long term path is

531
00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:43,560
Speaker 1: towards decoupling, and you know, going to war against Taiwan,

532
00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:50,600
Speaker 1: even if Trump's instinct his impulse would be that's pretty

533
00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:54,000
Speaker 1: far away, not really my problem. But the Japanese, the

534
00:29:54,080 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 1: South Koreans, the Australians wouldn't feel that way. And the

535
00:29:56,280 --> 00:29:58,960
Speaker 1: Americans are very much on the ground there and intelligent

536
00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:01,360
Speaker 1: sharing and troops and all the rest of It'd be

537
00:30:01,480 --> 00:30:05,160
Speaker 1: hard for the Americans to actually steer clear of that.

538
00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:08,080
Speaker 1: And I don't see Shi Jinping as wanting to take

539
00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:11,160
Speaker 1: that risk. Similar to the economy. You know, the Chinese

540
00:30:11,160 --> 00:30:14,200
Speaker 1: economy is not performing that well right now. He's not

541
00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:18,320
Speaker 1: ready to launch the big bazooka at domestic stimulus. He's

542
00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:21,680
Speaker 1: not suddenly going to take all of the provincial debt

543
00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:24,160
Speaker 1: and take it on at the federal level because he

544
00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:27,320
Speaker 1: doesn't need to. Because Xi Jinping is thinking about ten

545
00:30:27,400 --> 00:30:29,880
Speaker 1: years down the line, as you suggested, twenty years down

546
00:30:29,920 --> 00:30:33,040
Speaker 1: the line, and the fact that like he can wait,

547
00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:37,200
Speaker 1: he is patient, He is more risk averse. He's being

548
00:30:37,360 --> 00:30:41,480
Speaker 1: quite cautious about some of these bigger, long term strategic issues,

549
00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:42,800
Speaker 1: specifically like Taiwan.

550
00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:45,920
Speaker 2: Is the policy in the United States decoupling or is

551
00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:46,760
Speaker 2: it de risking.

552
00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:51,520
Speaker 1: I think it is long term, it's decoupling, and that's

553
00:30:51,520 --> 00:30:55,320
Speaker 1: an aggressive thing to say. But you know, when I

554
00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:59,280
Speaker 1: think about the commanding heights of the global economy over

555
00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:02,640
Speaker 1: the next five years, we're talking about AI and advanced technologies,

556
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:05,400
Speaker 1: and these are places where what the Americans are doing

557
00:31:05,440 --> 00:31:08,080
Speaker 1: and what the Chinese are doing are completely separate sets

558
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:13,920
Speaker 1: of investments. They're not interoperable. We're taking our researchers out

559
00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:17,680
Speaker 1: of each other's programs. We're not collaborating, we're not communicating,

560
00:31:18,120 --> 00:31:21,360
Speaker 1: We're doing completely different things. And so you know, we're

561
00:31:21,840 --> 00:31:25,280
Speaker 1: going to other countries and we're saying it's not just

562
00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:27,080
Speaker 1: about if we want to talk about US China, we

563
00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:32,240
Speaker 1: have to talk about American diplomacy with third parties and say, well,

564
00:31:32,440 --> 00:31:35,320
Speaker 1: we're pressuring the Mexicans to ensure there are no transhipments

565
00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:38,520
Speaker 1: of Chinese goods through Mexico into the United States. We're

566
00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:41,080
Speaker 1: pressuring the Netherlands to make sure that they're not actually

567
00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:45,680
Speaker 1: you know, sort of selling software design or semiconductors into China.

568
00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:49,120
Speaker 1: We're working on all of these countries to build alternate

569
00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:51,960
Speaker 1: supply chains so that we don't rely on the Chinese.

570
00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:55,480
Speaker 1: That's not the risk game. That's decoupling. That's that's where

571
00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:57,760
Speaker 1: the Americans are going long term. But there's a recognition

572
00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:00,960
Speaker 1: that for the next one, two, three years is you

573
00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:03,680
Speaker 1: can't actually get that done. You can't execute on that

574
00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:04,680
Speaker 1: strategy near term.

575
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 2: Uh, you mentioned Mexico. We can sort of connect the

576
00:32:09,920 --> 00:32:12,680
Speaker 2: dot up Canada? What what is what is that? What

577
00:32:12,760 --> 00:32:16,640
Speaker 2: is the Trump administration's bone to pick with Canada? Where's

578
00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:20,520
Speaker 2: the origin story here? Was it personality with Trudeau? I mean,

579
00:32:20,640 --> 00:32:24,080
Speaker 2: was it just again back to impulse or is there

580
00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:30,440
Speaker 2: a strategy? I mean this issue of sovereignty Denmark written about.

581
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:32,440
Speaker 2: I mean, we were going away from down in Panama

582
00:32:32,480 --> 00:32:34,680
Speaker 2: for a while. We'll get to Venezuela perhaps in a

583
00:32:34,720 --> 00:32:37,200
Speaker 2: moment with Maduro. But what is it? What is the

584
00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:40,200
Speaker 2: bone to pick with Canada? Is there a strategy here?

585
00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:41,760
Speaker 2: Is there a rationale?

586
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:46,800
Speaker 1: Well, given that the US Mexico Canada agreement was again

587
00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:50,120
Speaker 1: after the Abraham Accords, arguably the second biggest win of

588
00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:54,640
Speaker 1: the first transition, own negotiated Trump own negotiate agreement. Yes,

589
00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:56,960
Speaker 1: and that's why I say the second Trump term is

590
00:32:56,960 --> 00:32:59,400
Speaker 1: so different from the first. It's much more like, I'm

591
00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:02,920
Speaker 1: much more power powerful, and I am in a position

592
00:33:03,480 --> 00:33:09,040
Speaker 1: where I can force you to accept asymmetric negotiations that

593
00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:13,040
Speaker 1: benefit me to a greater degree. And you know, yes,

594
00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:16,880
Speaker 1: at the beginning, of course, it was justin Trudeau and

595
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:20,960
Speaker 1: the fact that he really disliked him personally, and so

596
00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:23,680
Speaker 1: when he came down to mar A Lago and Trump

597
00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:26,320
Speaker 1: had him surrounded at that table and started talking with

598
00:33:26,400 --> 00:33:30,520
Speaker 1: Governor Trudeau. And you'll remember that there were like you know,

599
00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:33,880
Speaker 1: hockey matches and the rest where they were booing the

600
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:37,120
Speaker 1: American national anthem. All of the countries. I mean when

601
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:41,320
Speaker 1: I mentioned that the Americans are perceived is unreliable. But

602
00:33:41,400 --> 00:33:43,360
Speaker 1: there are a whole bunch of countries that are still

603
00:33:43,520 --> 00:33:47,000
Speaker 1: trying to find more effective ways of can't we just

604
00:33:47,000 --> 00:33:51,240
Speaker 1: get along? Can't we not have a crisis? Canada, because

605
00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:55,080
Speaker 1: they know the Americans so well, they are so angry. Yeah,

606
00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:58,600
Speaker 1: you look at how few Canadians are traveling to the USA.

607
00:33:58,680 --> 00:34:00,480
Speaker 2: You rely on one point nine million year just in

608
00:34:00,520 --> 00:34:01,560
Speaker 2: the state of California.

609
00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:03,600
Speaker 1: It's just it's collapsed staunch.

610
00:34:03,800 --> 00:34:06,720
Speaker 2: Absolutely. The economic damage, the self harm we've done is

611
00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:09,000
Speaker 2: off the charts. That's a side. But you're right, it's

612
00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:10,919
Speaker 2: interesting for the Canadians. It's raw.

613
00:34:11,160 --> 00:34:13,800
Speaker 1: It's raw. Yeah, yeah, I talked to hotel owners in Boston,

614
00:34:13,880 --> 00:34:16,319
Speaker 1: New England that kind of stuff. Also, Canadian tourism has

615
00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:19,480
Speaker 1: just fallen off a fucking cliff, and so there's a

616
00:34:19,520 --> 00:34:22,440
Speaker 1: huge amount of self harm in a country that really

617
00:34:22,560 --> 00:34:27,160
Speaker 1: integrates trusts the Americans, right, I mean they're very similar people.

618
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:33,440
Speaker 1: And and remember Mark Carney won because of Trump period.

619
00:34:33,640 --> 00:34:35,719
Speaker 1: I mean that he was not in there with the

620
00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:36,279
Speaker 1: fighting chance.

621
00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:38,279
Speaker 2: Otherwise it was going to get to Lulu and we'll

622
00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:41,280
Speaker 2: get to all these others that are beneficiaries of Trumpt's policies.

623
00:34:41,400 --> 00:34:42,720
Speaker 1: Australia, same thing happened.

624
00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:43,960
Speaker 2: It's interesting. That's a good point.

625
00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:46,160
Speaker 1: A number of elections that Trump actually pushed in the

626
00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:46,640
Speaker 1: other direction.

627
00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:52,040
Speaker 2: What's Channebaum's the president of Mexico's played it from her

628
00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:54,640
Speaker 2: perspective Canadian Mexican perspective.

629
00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:57,520
Speaker 1: Well, I would say so. I think she's been one

630
00:34:57,520 --> 00:34:57,680
Speaker 1: of the.

631
00:34:57,640 --> 00:35:01,520
Speaker 2: Times a little frustrating for other training partners or relationships.

632
00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:04,640
Speaker 2: So you can't in California and others. But she's she's

633
00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:08,440
Speaker 2: got a lot more to lose. No, yes, she's she's

634
00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:10,680
Speaker 2: sort of she's figured out how to play Trump a

635
00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:13,960
Speaker 2: little bit differently than a lot of leaders.

636
00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:17,680
Speaker 1: No, yeah, I think that what's interesting You're talking about

637
00:35:17,680 --> 00:35:23,920
Speaker 1: a PhD woman, environmental scientist, Berkeley grad. I mean, you know,

638
00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:27,680
Speaker 1: if she had been black and lesbian, I mean, like,

639
00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:30,319
Speaker 1: you can't find me a demographic that's going to be

640
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:33,480
Speaker 1: more challenging for Trump to actually deal with. Right and

641
00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:37,680
Speaker 1: yet and yet she's been She's she's talked with him

642
00:35:38,040 --> 00:35:42,040
Speaker 1: frequently on the phone. She has engaged. She stands up

643
00:35:42,480 --> 00:35:45,160
Speaker 1: for herself and her country on the issues that are

644
00:35:45,239 --> 00:35:48,400
Speaker 1: utterly critical, like, for example, you can't send the military

645
00:35:48,480 --> 00:35:51,960
Speaker 1: in directly, you can't send drones indirectly. Will cooperate with you,

646
00:35:52,280 --> 00:35:56,239
Speaker 1: but you know, our sovereignty is utterly sacrifanct. But she's

647
00:35:56,400 --> 00:35:59,919
Speaker 1: given on border security, which has made Trump look good.

648
00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:01,840
Speaker 1: He's much more popular on that than he is on

649
00:36:01,880 --> 00:36:06,120
Speaker 1: the economy. Right now, she has given on trying to

650
00:36:06,120 --> 00:36:09,440
Speaker 1: get China out of their economy, which frankly, the Chinese

651
00:36:09,480 --> 00:36:12,560
Speaker 1: investments in Mexico haven't been that popular. I mean they're

652
00:36:12,560 --> 00:36:15,040
Speaker 1: not manufacturing cars. They are assembly. There are many good

653
00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:17,560
Speaker 1: jobs around that they're They're sending in a whole bunch

654
00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:20,680
Speaker 1: of cheap textiles. A lot of Mexican small and medium

655
00:36:20,719 --> 00:36:24,560
Speaker 1: producers are losing their jobs. So I mean there's alignment

656
00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:28,839
Speaker 1: on a lot of stuff. They had their their absolutely

657
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:34,680
Speaker 1: biggest fentanyl bust in Mexico under Stanbaum for Trump. They

658
00:36:34,680 --> 00:36:37,319
Speaker 1: weren't doing that under Biden. And by the way, I

659
00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:42,560
Speaker 1: just heard from her cabinet just last week that the

660
00:36:42,840 --> 00:36:46,279
Speaker 1: that the bust in Nogadless, I guess it was with

661
00:36:46,400 --> 00:36:51,360
Speaker 1: the United States actually grabbing all of these rifles, heavy rifles.

662
00:36:51,719 --> 00:36:52,560
Speaker 2: They were going south.

663
00:36:52,680 --> 00:36:57,799
Speaker 1: They were going south. Was the single biggest seizure that

664
00:36:58,040 --> 00:36:58,960
Speaker 1: has happened.

665
00:36:58,680 --> 00:37:01,400
Speaker 2: From get a lot of deserved a lot more attention.

666
00:37:01,120 --> 00:37:02,440
Speaker 1: But in Mexico, got a lot of attention.

667
00:37:03,280 --> 00:37:05,560
Speaker 2: We've been working on our own state national Guard has

668
00:37:05,600 --> 00:37:09,080
Speaker 2: been working. I've deployed them to the border on precisely

669
00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:13,120
Speaker 2: those operations, working in partnership with the National Guard in Mexico,

670
00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:17,400
Speaker 2: which we have a formal relationship. So I've plogged that effort.

671
00:37:17,440 --> 00:37:20,239
Speaker 2: That was significant and it's a good proof point of

672
00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:22,799
Speaker 2: that relationship. When we look more now.

673
00:37:23,040 --> 00:37:25,920
Speaker 1: But of course they are deeply worried about, like, you know,

674
00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:28,040
Speaker 1: what happens with trade between US and Mexico. It's the

675
00:37:28,120 --> 00:37:29,880
Speaker 1: end of the day. As much as she's trying to

676
00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:32,520
Speaker 1: manage it, and she's doing good job, they are deeply

677
00:37:32,600 --> 00:37:36,680
Speaker 1: uncomfortable with the Americans saying, hey, USMCA, don't care what

678
00:37:36,719 --> 00:37:40,040
Speaker 1: that says. We're actually going to rip that off and

679
00:37:40,080 --> 00:37:42,799
Speaker 1: we're going to hit you hard unless you improve trade

680
00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:43,400
Speaker 1: terms with US.

681
00:37:43,640 --> 00:37:43,839
Speaker 2: Yeap.

682
00:37:43,920 --> 00:37:46,160
Speaker 1: That worries them a lot, because I mean they are,

683
00:37:46,360 --> 00:37:49,200
Speaker 1: you know, a much smaller economy and they are overwhelmingly

684
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:51,200
Speaker 1: reliant on the US exactly right.

685
00:37:51,880 --> 00:37:56,360
Speaker 2: The issues of narco trafficking, et cetera. It's obviously raised

686
00:37:56,360 --> 00:37:58,600
Speaker 2: and by when I was down at copp in Brazil,

687
00:37:59,280 --> 00:38:01,400
Speaker 2: this was a question to Presco. Was a few on

688
00:38:01,480 --> 00:38:03,480
Speaker 2: a reporters, and it was interesting how many questions I

689
00:38:03,560 --> 00:38:08,200
Speaker 2: got on this topic, not on topic meaning climate issues.

690
00:38:08,480 --> 00:38:10,920
Speaker 1: They expect that the Americans are going to start bombing

691
00:38:11,040 --> 00:38:12,200
Speaker 1: Venezuela any day.

692
00:38:12,120 --> 00:38:13,600
Speaker 2: You got it? I mean, where do you? I mean

693
00:38:13,640 --> 00:38:15,200
Speaker 2: a lot of people are speculatings a little bit of

694
00:38:15,239 --> 00:38:19,320
Speaker 2: wag the dog. There's a lot of distrust about the administration,

695
00:38:19,360 --> 00:38:23,120
Speaker 2: particularly time Epstein files and everything else going on, everything

696
00:38:23,160 --> 00:38:26,760
Speaker 2: that arguably is going wrong. Trump's had a difficult few weeks,

697
00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:29,600
Speaker 2: and I would argue a few months, but don't really

698
00:38:29,640 --> 00:38:32,200
Speaker 2: last few weeks. What do you make of what's going

699
00:38:32,239 --> 00:38:37,000
Speaker 2: on with these these strikes on these boats? What do

700
00:38:37,040 --> 00:38:40,840
Speaker 2: you make Is this a strategy to take out Maduro?

701
00:38:41,239 --> 00:38:46,520
Speaker 2: Is it a strategy to create anxiety for their for

702
00:38:46,640 --> 00:38:50,879
Speaker 2: their regime of sorts there for folks down in that

703
00:38:50,920 --> 00:38:52,520
Speaker 2: region more broadly beyond.

704
00:38:52,239 --> 00:38:55,160
Speaker 1: I mean, it clearly isn't just a strategy to take

705
00:38:55,160 --> 00:38:59,000
Speaker 1: out these boats, because the expense and the amount of

706
00:38:59,160 --> 00:39:02,400
Speaker 1: material that the Americans presently have a raid off the

707
00:39:02,440 --> 00:39:06,080
Speaker 1: coast is radically beyond what you would need for that. Right,

708
00:39:06,640 --> 00:39:09,279
Speaker 1: Let's put an aircraft carra down there, that's right, Yeah, yeah,

709
00:39:09,480 --> 00:39:14,879
Speaker 1: strike group? Yeah yeah, no. Now. I think what's interesting, though,

710
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:16,960
Speaker 1: is that, unlike a lot of the policies you and

711
00:39:17,000 --> 00:39:20,839
Speaker 1: I have been talking about in the past moments, this

712
00:39:20,920 --> 00:39:24,880
Speaker 1: is one that Trump has not personally been driving details on.

713
00:39:25,120 --> 00:39:26,000
Speaker 2: This is Rubio.

714
00:39:26,320 --> 00:39:30,640
Speaker 1: This is it's Rubio, It's Ratcliffe and CIA, it's Stephen

715
00:39:30,719 --> 00:39:36,640
Speaker 1: Miller actually as well, and they've really been pushing pretty

716
00:39:36,680 --> 00:39:39,719
Speaker 1: hard to nothing is going to be worse than the

717
00:39:39,760 --> 00:39:43,440
Speaker 1: Maduro regime right now. There are several reasons. It's it

718
00:39:43,560 --> 00:39:48,160
Speaker 1: is cocaine export coming into the United States. It is

719
00:39:48,760 --> 00:39:53,000
Speaker 1: oil going illegally to Cuba and then on to China.

720
00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:57,160
Speaker 1: It is ideological that you've got Venezuela, you've got Nicaragua,

721
00:39:57,239 --> 00:40:00,200
Speaker 1: you've got Cuba, these revolutionary leftist regimes. For otherwise in

722
00:40:00,200 --> 00:40:02,560
Speaker 1: the region, most these countries are turning towards the United

723
00:40:02,560 --> 00:40:05,600
Speaker 1: States and towards the right. And so there's a whole

724
00:40:05,640 --> 00:40:08,480
Speaker 1: bunch of things happening at the same time. And it's

725
00:40:08,680 --> 00:40:12,080
Speaker 1: also a little bit of hey, we were successful with Iran,

726
00:40:12,960 --> 00:40:15,000
Speaker 1: you know we all we need to do is a

727
00:40:15,040 --> 00:40:17,279
Speaker 1: little flex We don't need boots on the ground. We

728
00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:19,319
Speaker 1: can get rid of this guy. So I think that's

729
00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:22,120
Speaker 1: what's driving them. But this is going to be a

730
00:40:22,160 --> 00:40:25,480
Speaker 1: lot harder because you know, you are at the end

731
00:40:25,480 --> 00:40:30,560
Speaker 1: of the day talking about wanting Maduro out and what

732
00:40:30,680 --> 00:40:34,480
Speaker 1: replaces him and how that gets done and who's responsible

733
00:40:34,520 --> 00:40:37,680
Speaker 1: for that. I mean, chaos is a real option here,

734
00:40:38,120 --> 00:40:41,160
Speaker 1: and chaos can easily be worse than the devil. You know,

735
00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:43,960
Speaker 1: as we've seen in Libya, as we've seen in Iraq,

736
00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:47,640
Speaker 1: and I would hate to see that kind of quagmire

737
00:40:48,560 --> 00:40:52,880
Speaker 1: on America's shoulders again. As much as I find Maduro

738
00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:56,120
Speaker 1: utterly despicable and want to see this guy out of power,

739
00:40:56,480 --> 00:40:57,120
Speaker 1: it's interesting.

740
00:40:57,400 --> 00:40:59,200
Speaker 2: So what's I mean, what's your over under if you

741
00:40:59,239 --> 00:41:01,719
Speaker 2: I mean just in terms of assessment of risk, in

742
00:41:01,840 --> 00:41:05,840
Speaker 2: terms of them escalating, I mean it's clearly they've escalated

743
00:41:05,880 --> 00:41:08,759
Speaker 2: significantly last week or so. What do you anticipate in

744
00:41:08,800 --> 00:41:11,680
Speaker 2: the next few months, weeks months, in terms of any

745
00:41:11,680 --> 00:41:13,000
Speaker 2: additional activities.

746
00:41:13,120 --> 00:41:16,239
Speaker 1: I would say close to one hundred percent that there

747
00:41:16,280 --> 00:41:21,800
Speaker 1: will be direct US military strikes against targets in Venezuela. Yes,

748
00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:25,120
Speaker 1: now I don't that is not necessarily regime change. I

749
00:41:25,160 --> 00:41:29,800
Speaker 1: would be stunned if they don't. Stunted. Everything is oriented,

750
00:41:30,120 --> 00:41:33,600
Speaker 1: including like just the cadence of meetings in the situation

751
00:41:33,800 --> 00:41:36,920
Speaker 1: room on this, the amount of like you know, intel

752
00:41:37,000 --> 00:41:39,399
Speaker 1: and scenario planning. There's no way they're putting this much

753
00:41:39,440 --> 00:41:42,200
Speaker 1: effort into it to just say, ah, it's going to

754
00:41:42,239 --> 00:41:45,520
Speaker 1: climb down. Don't don't really care unless Maduro were to

755
00:41:45,560 --> 00:41:48,839
Speaker 1: be forced out absent that push, and I just think

756
00:41:48,840 --> 00:41:51,200
Speaker 1: he has too much control for that to happen.

757
00:41:51,680 --> 00:41:57,440
Speaker 2: Interesting, let's talk about control things not happening. Clearly the

758
00:41:57,480 --> 00:42:01,840
Speaker 2: Trump administration over promised significantly in terms of controlling the

759
00:42:01,880 --> 00:42:05,400
Speaker 2: agenda for peace deal with Putin and Ukraine. What do

760
00:42:05,440 --> 00:42:08,480
Speaker 2: you make did you? I imagine we all came in

761
00:42:08,520 --> 00:42:11,080
Speaker 2: with some hope and expectation that we can turn the page,

762
00:42:11,080 --> 00:42:14,839
Speaker 2: that maybe the power personality, the relationships between the two

763
00:42:14,920 --> 00:42:18,080
Speaker 2: leaders that could pre persuade. I mean, where do you

764
00:42:18,120 --> 00:42:22,680
Speaker 2: think we are right now? Was the Bilat up in

765
00:42:23,200 --> 00:42:27,879
Speaker 2: Alaska complete abject failure? Yes? So where are we right now?

766
00:42:28,600 --> 00:42:32,440
Speaker 1: I mean? Trump really did think that his relationship with

767
00:42:32,480 --> 00:42:34,279
Speaker 1: Putin was going to make a difference. I think he

768
00:42:34,320 --> 00:42:38,480
Speaker 1: came to that honestly. He saw that Biden did not

769
00:42:38,680 --> 00:42:42,560
Speaker 1: treat Putin as an equal leader at all. Remember, the

770
00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:46,759
Speaker 1: whole thing was autocrats and Democrats, and he wasn't going

771
00:42:46,800 --> 00:42:48,480
Speaker 1: to pick up the phone to talk with Putin. He

772
00:42:48,480 --> 00:42:50,720
Speaker 1: certainly wasn't going to invite him to a bilateral summit.

773
00:42:51,080 --> 00:42:53,239
Speaker 1: Trump was willing to do all of that, and in fact,

774
00:42:53,239 --> 00:42:55,800
Speaker 1: that first phone call he had with Putin, he was

775
00:42:55,800 --> 00:42:58,239
Speaker 1: a two hour phone call. He didn't even coordinate with

776
00:42:58,280 --> 00:43:02,520
Speaker 1: the allies in advance. He gave Putin so much more

777
00:43:02,640 --> 00:43:07,640
Speaker 1: respect as an equivalent great power. The way when he

778
00:43:07,680 --> 00:43:09,839
Speaker 1: met with Chiesenping the last time around, when he spoke

779
00:43:09,880 --> 00:43:14,120
Speaker 1: with him that he said, this is a G two meeting, right,

780
00:43:14,239 --> 00:43:17,799
Speaker 1: I mean, he's seating the field of where the two

781
00:43:17,840 --> 00:43:18,600
Speaker 1: great nations.

782
00:43:18,680 --> 00:43:18,839
Speaker 2: Right.

783
00:43:19,440 --> 00:43:22,720
Speaker 1: No other American president would do that. And so between

784
00:43:22,840 --> 00:43:25,480
Speaker 1: that and saying that he would end the sanctions and

785
00:43:25,520 --> 00:43:27,879
Speaker 1: he would no longer freeze the assets and they could

786
00:43:27,880 --> 00:43:31,080
Speaker 1: work together on arms control and up in the Arctic

787
00:43:31,200 --> 00:43:35,000
Speaker 1: and critical mineral exploitation, there's a lot that was being offered.

788
00:43:35,239 --> 00:43:39,000
Speaker 1: And Trump had already showed through the Ukrainians that he

789
00:43:39,040 --> 00:43:42,400
Speaker 1: was willing to really pressure Ukraine to accept the ceasefire

790
00:43:42,440 --> 00:43:46,600
Speaker 1: with no preconditions, which again Biden didn't do. I mean Biden,

791
00:43:47,120 --> 00:43:49,440
Speaker 1: I'd be talking to Jake Sullivan, I'd be talking to like,

792
00:43:49,480 --> 00:43:51,719
Speaker 1: you know, all of the people around Biden, and they'd

793
00:43:51,760 --> 00:43:54,680
Speaker 1: be saying, well, we can't really get them to accept

794
00:43:54,920 --> 00:43:58,480
Speaker 1: the terms for a ceasefire. The Europeans are having a

795
00:43:58,480 --> 00:44:00,600
Speaker 1: hard time with it. It's hard to bring up. Trump

796
00:44:01,000 --> 00:44:05,280
Speaker 1: went directly to the source, got that done. But Putin

797
00:44:06,360 --> 00:44:12,279
Speaker 1: was absolutely uninterested in moving an inch on a ceasefire.

798
00:44:12,760 --> 00:44:16,640
Speaker 1: And kind of humiliated Trump, honestly kind of And I

799
00:44:16,640 --> 00:44:19,799
Speaker 1: think that Trump has taken it personally. Even though he

800
00:44:19,840 --> 00:44:23,359
Speaker 1: clearly doesn't want to escalate against Russia, he now has

801
00:44:23,360 --> 00:44:26,920
Speaker 1: put himself in a position where he is escalating against Russia.

802
00:44:27,239 --> 00:44:33,160
Speaker 1: He is directly permissioning missiles that the Americans have provided

803
00:44:33,200 --> 00:44:36,080
Speaker 1: to Ukraine and allowing them to take it out of

804
00:44:36,080 --> 00:44:39,120
Speaker 1: the box, in other words, going far deeper in terms

805
00:44:39,200 --> 00:44:43,000
Speaker 1: of their strikes with US intelligence on targeting taking out

806
00:44:43,080 --> 00:44:47,040
Speaker 1: Russian energy capabilities. And that's why oil prices have been

807
00:44:47,120 --> 00:44:49,480
Speaker 1: started to push up in the high sixties and might

808
00:44:49,520 --> 00:44:52,880
Speaker 1: go to seventy. Wouldn't shock me in that environment. Trump

809
00:44:52,960 --> 00:44:56,600
Speaker 1: also on Luke Oil, on Rosnef, telling the Indians, I'm

810
00:44:56,600 --> 00:44:58,840
Speaker 1: willing to give you a trade deal, but part of

811
00:44:58,880 --> 00:45:02,280
Speaker 1: that is U stop buying that oil from Russia. Biden

812
00:45:02,400 --> 00:45:05,839
Speaker 1: was willing to allow them to buy that oil from Russia. So,

813
00:45:06,120 --> 00:45:09,240
Speaker 1: I mean, for all of the talk about how Trump

814
00:45:09,280 --> 00:45:12,719
Speaker 1: has been some kind of a Russian asset, the reality

815
00:45:12,920 --> 00:45:16,200
Speaker 1: is Trump wanted a good relationship with Putin. He doesn't

816
00:45:16,200 --> 00:45:18,600
Speaker 1: care about the human rights abuses, doesn't care about the

817
00:45:18,600 --> 00:45:20,360
Speaker 1: fact he's dictator. That could even be a feature not

818
00:45:20,440 --> 00:45:23,840
Speaker 1: a bug. But now that Trump has humiliated him, not

819
00:45:23,880 --> 00:45:27,280
Speaker 1: giving him an he wants, Trump's pretty angry. And Trump

820
00:45:27,280 --> 00:45:30,879
Speaker 1: can also legitimately say, hey, the Europeans are doing most

821
00:45:30,880 --> 00:45:32,719
Speaker 1: of the lifting now, yeah, which is what I wanted

822
00:45:32,719 --> 00:45:34,600
Speaker 1: from day one. They're the ones spending most of the money.

823
00:45:34,640 --> 00:45:39,080
Speaker 2: We're not. And that so he would argue, we're making money,

824
00:45:39,160 --> 00:45:39,920
Speaker 2: we're selling arms.

825
00:45:40,040 --> 00:45:42,480
Speaker 1: He would argue that, yeah. He would argue that, so

826
00:45:42,719 --> 00:45:45,040
Speaker 1: we're literally making money off the war, making money selling

827
00:45:45,320 --> 00:45:46,120
Speaker 1: He would say that, yeah.

828
00:45:46,400 --> 00:45:50,120
Speaker 2: And so, I mean, what you see Putin five ten?

829
00:45:50,160 --> 00:45:53,359
Speaker 2: I mean, is this another Afghanistan from Putin's perspective? I mean,

830
00:45:53,360 --> 00:45:55,839
Speaker 2: he's just gonna wear everybody out. This is another two

831
00:45:55,880 --> 00:45:59,319
Speaker 2: to three years grind, grind, grind, I mean, inch by inch.

832
00:46:00,360 --> 00:46:03,280
Speaker 2: At what point do you see Zelenski breaking the EU

833
00:46:03,480 --> 00:46:05,839
Speaker 2: saying that we've had enough. I mean, you know, we've

834
00:46:05,840 --> 00:46:08,280
Speaker 2: got to move on. How many more winters are people

835
00:46:08,280 --> 00:46:10,520
Speaker 2: going to suffer? How many more tens of thousands of

836
00:46:10,600 --> 00:46:11,560
Speaker 2: lives are going to be lost?

837
00:46:11,680 --> 00:46:13,919
Speaker 1: So, Gavin, we've been coming up now on almost four

838
00:46:14,040 --> 00:46:17,479
Speaker 1: years of war, and after the first few months, it's

839
00:46:17,520 --> 00:46:20,399
Speaker 1: been you know, it hasn't moved a hell of a lot.

840
00:46:20,480 --> 00:46:23,680
Speaker 1: I feel like we've been lulled into a false sense

841
00:46:24,280 --> 00:46:28,400
Speaker 1: of stability in this war. I don't think, if God forbid,

842
00:46:28,400 --> 00:46:30,160
Speaker 1: we have another two three years of the war, which

843
00:46:30,200 --> 00:46:33,560
Speaker 1: is wholly plausible. I don't think it's going to stay

844
00:46:33,560 --> 00:46:35,400
Speaker 1: the same the way it has.

845
00:46:35,440 --> 00:46:37,560
Speaker 2: Meaning it's going to significantly escalate.

846
00:46:38,200 --> 00:46:40,399
Speaker 1: I fear that it's going to escalate for a few

847
00:46:40,400 --> 00:46:45,920
Speaker 1: different reasons. First, because I think the a Wall numbers

848
00:46:45,960 --> 00:46:48,839
Speaker 1: of Ukrainian soldiers in the last year I'm hearing from

849
00:46:48,880 --> 00:46:51,080
Speaker 1: the Ukrainians are about three hundred thousand. That's a lot

850
00:46:51,120 --> 00:46:54,080
Speaker 1: greater than it was a year ago. How topening a

851
00:46:54,120 --> 00:46:57,520
Speaker 1: harder time getting the reservist to actually fight. The Ukrainians

852
00:46:57,560 --> 00:47:02,160
Speaker 1: are stepping up their own indigenous military capabilities, these Flamingo

853
00:47:02,239 --> 00:47:07,680
Speaker 1: missiles with a three thousand kilometer capability and they're making

854
00:47:07,680 --> 00:47:11,719
Speaker 1: one hundred of them every month, their drone capacity which

855
00:47:11,760 --> 00:47:16,480
Speaker 1: is massive, and a willingness to hit the Russians a

856
00:47:16,480 --> 00:47:19,880
Speaker 1: lot harder because the Ukrainians see that they can't continue

857
00:47:19,920 --> 00:47:22,800
Speaker 1: to fight the way they have. At the same time,

858
00:47:23,320 --> 00:47:25,640
Speaker 1: you know, the Russians, just in the last few days

859
00:47:25,760 --> 00:47:31,480
Speaker 1: we saw clearly ordered these agents to try to blow

860
00:47:31,560 --> 00:47:36,200
Speaker 1: up a Polish train that was providing aid to Ukraine.

861
00:47:36,200 --> 00:47:40,120
Speaker 1: This was after sending drones three hundred kilometers into Poland.

862
00:47:40,160 --> 00:47:42,040
Speaker 1: I mean, I talked to a lot of the frontline leaders,

863
00:47:42,480 --> 00:47:47,400
Speaker 1: the Baltic States, the Nordics, the Poles. They're they're deeply

864
00:47:47,520 --> 00:47:54,120
Speaker 1: concerned that this Russian asymmetrical warfare is It's already happening

865
00:47:54,680 --> 00:47:59,600
Speaker 1: inside NATO, and NATO hasn't done very much in direct response.

866
00:47:59,680 --> 00:48:01,759
Speaker 1: That's your putin. You think, Okay, I can get away

867
00:48:01,760 --> 00:48:03,160
Speaker 1: with that. Can I get away with a little more?

868
00:48:03,160 --> 00:48:06,120
Speaker 1: Can I do a little more with the intention of

869
00:48:06,160 --> 00:48:08,799
Speaker 1: dividing the Europeans Because you're hitting the front line states,

870
00:48:08,840 --> 00:48:11,440
Speaker 1: you're not hitting Spain, right, You're not hitting Italy. So

871
00:48:11,480 --> 00:48:13,120
Speaker 1: you get those guys to say, hey, we don't want

872
00:48:13,160 --> 00:48:15,319
Speaker 1: to be a part of this. So I think that

873
00:48:15,440 --> 00:48:17,840
Speaker 1: for lots of reasons, both in terms of the direct

874
00:48:17,880 --> 00:48:21,240
Speaker 1: Russia Ukraine flight and also in terms of Russia and NATO,

875
00:48:21,960 --> 00:48:25,560
Speaker 1: that the potential this gets significantly worse. And look, it's

876
00:48:25,600 --> 00:48:28,920
Speaker 1: been horrific for the Ukrainian people, and it's been horrific

877
00:48:28,920 --> 00:48:31,360
Speaker 1: for the Russians fighting. I mean, they've already had over

878
00:48:31,480 --> 00:48:34,520
Speaker 1: a million casualties so I'm not trying to diminish that

879
00:48:34,600 --> 00:48:38,000
Speaker 1: at all. But for those of us sitting kibitzing about

880
00:48:38,000 --> 00:48:42,200
Speaker 1: this in the United States, Russia, Ukraine has seen seemed

881
00:48:42,239 --> 00:48:44,920
Speaker 1: like a war vontam way over there, as the Russians

882
00:48:44,960 --> 00:48:49,400
Speaker 1: would say, and I fear it's going to start becoming

883
00:48:49,400 --> 00:48:50,800
Speaker 1: a little more real for us.

884
00:48:54,040 --> 00:48:59,080
Speaker 2: The NATO relationship with NATO seems NATO stepped. I mean,

885
00:48:59,480 --> 00:49:02,520
Speaker 2: Trump tested the theory around the two percent. I mean,

886
00:49:02,520 --> 00:49:04,760
Speaker 2: obviously he's got these guys. I mean you mentioned Spain.

887
00:49:04,840 --> 00:49:07,240
Speaker 2: They may not be on board, they're not, but clearly

888
00:49:07,880 --> 00:49:10,799
Speaker 2: NATO is. Their posture has been a little bit more

889
00:49:10,800 --> 00:49:14,640
Speaker 2: assertive in terms of their own contributions, and there's some

890
00:49:14,680 --> 00:49:17,800
Speaker 2: curious ways they determined and calculate.

891
00:49:17,360 --> 00:49:18,120
Speaker 1: What those numbers are.

892
00:49:18,120 --> 00:49:19,719
Speaker 2: Those numbers, So I think there's a little bit of

893
00:49:19,960 --> 00:49:23,600
Speaker 2: press release and celebrate success on that. But what I mean,

894
00:49:23,800 --> 00:49:27,080
Speaker 2: do you think he's played NATO and very effective and

895
00:49:27,120 --> 00:49:30,880
Speaker 2: strategically Trump I mean, despite how he's handled it, the

896
00:49:30,920 --> 00:49:33,960
Speaker 2: outcome in terms of where he's positioned NATO, are we

897
00:49:34,080 --> 00:49:36,160
Speaker 2: better off as the United States, I mean, the relationship

898
00:49:36,160 --> 00:49:39,520
Speaker 2: to NATO than we were prior to this new Trump.

899
00:49:39,360 --> 00:49:42,680
Speaker 1: We're clearly better off because the Europeans are spending more.

900
00:49:42,880 --> 00:49:45,400
Speaker 1: We're clearly better off because the Germans are now taking

901
00:49:45,440 --> 00:49:48,400
Speaker 1: this seriously. We're a little worse off in the sense

902
00:49:48,440 --> 00:49:51,719
Speaker 1: that the trust has been so eroded to get there. So,

903
00:49:52,000 --> 00:49:54,600
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, you kind of want to be

904
00:49:54,680 --> 00:49:57,839
Speaker 1: in the middle, right. You've had this policy of extremes

905
00:49:57,960 --> 00:50:00,840
Speaker 1: where for a long time the Americans did really press

906
00:50:00,920 --> 00:50:04,319
Speaker 1: the Europeans, so the Europeans were free riding and they

907
00:50:04,360 --> 00:50:06,920
Speaker 1: weren't developing their own military capabilities. That made them a

908
00:50:06,960 --> 00:50:09,759
Speaker 1: lot more vulnerable. And now they have to really get

909
00:50:09,840 --> 00:50:13,319
Speaker 1: up to speed fast. But the damage that's being done

910
00:50:13,360 --> 00:50:16,759
Speaker 1: to a lot of the relationships is real and is

911
00:50:16,800 --> 00:50:19,399
Speaker 1: going to be persistent for a long long time. It's

912
00:50:19,440 --> 00:50:22,080
Speaker 1: going to be hard to build. And I would be

913
00:50:22,200 --> 00:50:26,480
Speaker 1: perfectly happy with the Trump approach of you guys have

914
00:50:26,560 --> 00:50:31,040
Speaker 1: to spend or elsewhere out if it was not aligned

915
00:50:31,120 --> 00:50:35,200
Speaker 1: with JD. Vance and others saying you guys are the

916
00:50:35,200 --> 00:50:38,520
Speaker 1: principal adversaries and you don't respect rule of law or

917
00:50:38,560 --> 00:50:42,759
Speaker 1: free speech, and we don't want to be aligned with

918
00:50:42,800 --> 00:50:46,480
Speaker 1: your governments. We want the AfD in Germany, which the

919
00:50:46,560 --> 00:50:51,560
Speaker 1: German government sees as a neo Nazi party. Right, So

920
00:50:51,960 --> 00:50:54,279
Speaker 1: I think that there we've done a lot of own

921
00:50:54,360 --> 00:50:59,719
Speaker 1: goals by having this let's just flood the zone on

922
00:50:59,760 --> 00:51:03,080
Speaker 1: a reissue and fight against our allies on everything as

923
00:51:03,120 --> 00:51:06,000
Speaker 1: opposed to picking the few things that are really important

924
00:51:06,000 --> 00:51:08,880
Speaker 1: for the strategic relationship and that's where the fight is.

925
00:51:09,080 --> 00:51:12,520
Speaker 1: And on everything else, keep it stable, don't make the news,

926
00:51:12,560 --> 00:51:14,239
Speaker 1: don't make the headline. But that's not the way this

927
00:51:14,320 --> 00:51:18,320
Speaker 1: administration works. And they don't really care about the long term,

928
00:51:18,480 --> 00:51:21,960
Speaker 1: right right, that's the problem. So short term this is

929
00:51:21,960 --> 00:51:24,080
Speaker 1: going to look like a lot of wins because you

930
00:51:24,080 --> 00:51:25,759
Speaker 1: can point to the Europeans and say, look at how

931
00:51:25,840 --> 00:51:27,880
Speaker 1: much they're doing, and look at how much they're lifting,

932
00:51:28,000 --> 00:51:30,960
Speaker 1: and you know they're really when when Zelensky last came

933
00:51:31,000 --> 00:51:32,719
Speaker 1: over to the White House, look at how the Europeans

934
00:51:32,760 --> 00:51:35,319
Speaker 1: all came with them and we're all sitting there like,

935
00:51:35,360 --> 00:51:37,440
Speaker 1: you know, sort of being lectured to by the American president.

936
00:51:37,480 --> 00:51:40,200
Speaker 1: Doesn't that mean the Americans are showing leadership? And to

937
00:51:40,280 --> 00:51:43,840
Speaker 1: a degree, the answer that is yes. But you can't

938
00:51:43,880 --> 00:51:49,160
Speaker 1: sit and think that these alliances can just take this

939
00:51:49,400 --> 00:51:53,040
Speaker 1: idea that there's no friendship, no trust, no shared values,

940
00:51:53,080 --> 00:51:57,120
Speaker 1: that the only thing that aligns them is, you know,

941
00:51:57,800 --> 00:52:01,960
Speaker 1: some common present day interest from a deal that's been struck.

942
00:52:02,200 --> 00:52:03,120
Speaker 1: That's not an alliance.

943
00:52:03,600 --> 00:52:06,399
Speaker 2: You've talked a lot. I mean this notion of short termism.

944
00:52:06,120 --> 00:52:08,160
Speaker 1: With that's why we needed you and Bella. That's it

945
00:52:08,160 --> 00:52:09,040
Speaker 1: was important for you to go.

946
00:52:09,400 --> 00:52:11,960
Speaker 2: And I appreciate that, and I want to connect a

947
00:52:12,000 --> 00:52:15,160
Speaker 2: few dots in terms of just my It was interesting

948
00:52:15,239 --> 00:52:17,400
Speaker 2: just having the opportunity to meet with leaders from around

949
00:52:17,400 --> 00:52:20,440
Speaker 2: the globe, from Columbia to Chile, not just South America,

950
00:52:20,520 --> 00:52:24,480
Speaker 2: Central America, in European and to hear the feedback and

951
00:52:24,520 --> 00:52:27,440
Speaker 2: to hear what you hear, what you hear in private,

952
00:52:27,560 --> 00:52:31,640
Speaker 2: what is obviously obviously what Trump often does not hear

953
00:52:31,920 --> 00:52:34,720
Speaker 2: or is not interested in even knowing about in terms

954
00:52:34,719 --> 00:52:37,719
Speaker 2: of their perspective, is important. But here the perspective of

955
00:52:37,800 --> 00:52:40,399
Speaker 2: short term ism, which you've written a lot about, you've

956
00:52:40,440 --> 00:52:44,600
Speaker 2: talked about, you've studied, versus long term interests. You know,

957
00:52:45,480 --> 00:52:49,560
Speaker 2: you referenced Ai you we talked about the bylight in

958
00:52:49,680 --> 00:52:52,440
Speaker 2: APAC which Trump did not participate in the APEC conference

959
00:52:53,040 --> 00:52:55,319
Speaker 2: but did the photo op and have the short inter

960
00:52:56,480 --> 00:53:02,480
Speaker 2: exchange with President she uh w H talked about USA aid,

961
00:53:03,160 --> 00:53:07,280
Speaker 2: immigration policy, the attack on research and universities, I mean

962
00:53:07,480 --> 00:53:09,960
Speaker 2: the seeds of our own destruction in many respects that's

963
00:53:10,000 --> 00:53:16,359
Speaker 2: an overstatement, perhaps, but the significant damage that potentially we're

964
00:53:16,360 --> 00:53:20,240
Speaker 2: doing to these conveyor belts for talent to this formula

965
00:53:20,440 --> 00:53:23,960
Speaker 2: some would say for success that is to find the

966
00:53:24,000 --> 00:53:28,680
Speaker 2: American dream, certainly to find California dream. Those seeds have

967
00:53:28,800 --> 00:53:35,680
Speaker 2: been planted, I mean mass immigration or deportation. Rather issues

968
00:53:35,840 --> 00:53:41,440
Speaker 2: around the universities, which we're feeling here in California disproportionally

969
00:53:41,440 --> 00:53:43,800
Speaker 2: five hundred and eighty four million dollars of grants for

970
00:53:43,880 --> 00:53:48,680
Speaker 2: research grants at IHNSF grants, a billion dollar extortion fee,

971
00:53:48,680 --> 00:53:53,440
Speaker 2: that fine that Trump wants from the UC system. You

972
00:53:53,560 --> 00:53:57,560
Speaker 2: mentioned what China's doing as it relates to potentially getting

973
00:53:57,600 --> 00:53:59,960
Speaker 2: the best in the brightest and first round draft choices,

974
00:54:00,080 --> 00:54:04,360
Speaker 2: because we've seen a significant decline in international students I

975
00:54:04,360 --> 00:54:08,920
Speaker 2: think percent so far in every year. What do you

976
00:54:09,000 --> 00:54:11,920
Speaker 2: make of all of that? And are we again am

977
00:54:11,960 --> 00:54:15,279
Speaker 2: I overstating the impacts in the medium and long term

978
00:54:15,280 --> 00:54:18,360
Speaker 2: in terms of the damage they'll be done. These alliances, truth, trust,

979
00:54:18,880 --> 00:54:21,239
Speaker 2: these relations easy to damage stuff, hard to build those

980
00:54:21,239 --> 00:54:21,680
Speaker 2: things back.

981
00:54:22,360 --> 00:54:27,480
Speaker 1: So I think You can't look at the whole elephant,

982
00:54:28,760 --> 00:54:31,760
Speaker 1: all of the damage that's being done to so much

983
00:54:31,880 --> 00:54:37,320
Speaker 1: American trust and soft power and commitment that has been undone,

984
00:54:37,680 --> 00:54:43,200
Speaker 1: unwound for unnecessarily and think that it's all just going

985
00:54:43,280 --> 00:54:46,279
Speaker 1: to be fine because these countries have nowhere else to go.

986
00:54:47,040 --> 00:54:51,319
Speaker 1: It is true that they have nowhere else good to go, right,

987
00:54:51,400 --> 00:54:53,640
Speaker 1: There is no other market that you would bet on

988
00:54:53,760 --> 00:54:55,720
Speaker 1: as much as you would bet on the United States

989
00:54:55,760 --> 00:54:58,279
Speaker 1: at this point and in the near term future. But

990
00:54:58,400 --> 00:55:02,040
Speaker 1: they will all hedge, they will all do less. And

991
00:55:02,320 --> 00:55:05,080
Speaker 1: you know, it's not death by a thousand cuts, but

992
00:55:05,160 --> 00:55:07,799
Speaker 1: it's a lot of injury by a thousand cuts, you know.

993
00:55:08,040 --> 00:55:10,120
Speaker 1: I mean, you know you're gull over and you take

994
00:55:10,239 --> 00:55:14,399
Speaker 1: enough Liliputians and eventually your limbs don't work quite as well. Right,

995
00:55:14,480 --> 00:55:17,360
Speaker 1: And they are a lot of them are Liliputians because

996
00:55:17,760 --> 00:55:20,160
Speaker 1: and I don't mean to disparage, but the fact is

997
00:55:20,160 --> 00:55:24,279
Speaker 1: that the big change in the US alliance system in

998
00:55:24,320 --> 00:55:26,840
Speaker 1: the last thirty years has been American allies getting weaker.

999
00:55:26,920 --> 00:55:30,000
Speaker 1: It's not been America getting weaker. The American allies have

1000
00:55:30,239 --> 00:55:33,200
Speaker 1: they have not invested, They are not growing.

1001
00:55:33,280 --> 00:55:34,640
Speaker 2: You're talking about EU.

1002
00:55:35,160 --> 00:55:39,480
Speaker 1: EU, UK, Canada, Japan, Australia, South Korea, all.

1003
00:55:39,360 --> 00:55:43,719
Speaker 2: Of them from a GDP perspective, from innovation and entrepreneurial perspective, new.

1004
00:55:43,640 --> 00:55:48,600
Speaker 1: Technologies, defense, growth, productivity, even demographics in the case of

1005
00:55:48,600 --> 00:55:50,280
Speaker 1: most of them, every single piece.

1006
00:55:50,640 --> 00:55:54,200
Speaker 2: And so you know, but the reason why we have

1007
00:55:54,280 --> 00:55:57,560
Speaker 2: outperformed all of those reasons there's under allied reasons, back

1008
00:55:57,560 --> 00:56:02,000
Speaker 2: to that formula for success. Those things are being ventialized.

1009
00:56:02,000 --> 00:56:03,719
Speaker 2: They're putting sand in the gears of all those things.

1010
00:56:03,800 --> 00:56:07,279
Speaker 1: So what I would want Trump to do, I wouldn't.

1011
00:56:07,320 --> 00:56:10,800
Speaker 1: I would want Trump to say, look, we need our allies,

1012
00:56:11,040 --> 00:56:13,759
Speaker 1: but we need strong allies. So the EU is not

1013
00:56:13,840 --> 00:56:15,719
Speaker 1: a threat to us. We don't want the EU to

1014
00:56:15,760 --> 00:56:19,520
Speaker 1: break apart, where we have much stronger relations with individual

1015
00:56:19,600 --> 00:56:21,920
Speaker 1: European countries that we can drag into the dirt and

1016
00:56:21,960 --> 00:56:24,720
Speaker 1: force them do we want. No, we want the EU

1017
00:56:25,040 --> 00:56:29,200
Speaker 1: to be stronger because a stronger EU is more capable

1018
00:56:29,320 --> 00:56:32,080
Speaker 1: of being a useful ally with the United States and

1019
00:56:32,120 --> 00:56:36,520
Speaker 1: fighting against Russia, fighting against China, and maybe even forcing

1020
00:56:36,560 --> 00:56:39,640
Speaker 1: them over time to align more with our own interests.

1021
00:56:39,760 --> 00:56:43,640
Speaker 1: A strong Canada, a strong Japan, a strong South Korea.

1022
00:56:43,760 --> 00:56:47,240
Speaker 1: That's the message that you want that the Americans need friends,

1023
00:56:47,480 --> 00:56:50,680
Speaker 1: but they need capable friends. That's that's a message that

1024
00:56:50,800 --> 00:56:53,399
Speaker 1: allows and yeah, there's going to be some tough love

1025
00:56:53,560 --> 00:56:55,759
Speaker 1: that if you don't do these things, that we're not

1026
00:56:55,880 --> 00:56:58,279
Speaker 1: going to give you what we did before. But it's

1027
00:56:58,280 --> 00:57:00,799
Speaker 1: not we want to destroy the EU. It's not that

1028
00:57:00,840 --> 00:57:04,840
Speaker 1: we want the anti establishment populist who don't care about

1029
00:57:04,840 --> 00:57:07,840
Speaker 1: your strength to win in these individual countries just because

1030
00:57:08,080 --> 00:57:10,440
Speaker 1: those people happen to like me and where somebody go

1031
00:57:10,520 --> 00:57:12,920
Speaker 1: on the global stage. But that's a long term perspective,

1032
00:57:13,440 --> 00:57:15,800
Speaker 1: where short term Trump is like, of course I want,

1033
00:57:16,000 --> 00:57:18,240
Speaker 1: you know, sort of the a FD, of course I

1034
00:57:18,280 --> 00:57:20,680
Speaker 1: want you know, sort of reform in the UK. And

1035
00:57:20,760 --> 00:57:25,840
Speaker 1: these guys would completely undermine the productivity of their own countries.

1036
00:57:26,360 --> 00:57:29,919
Speaker 1: So that's that's where I think there's real misalignment. It's

1037
00:57:29,920 --> 00:57:35,120
Speaker 1: not that the Americans don't understand the symptoms of what's

1038
00:57:35,160 --> 00:57:41,960
Speaker 1: ailing everyone geopolitically, but the cure that they're offering is

1039
00:57:42,000 --> 00:57:43,320
Speaker 1: going to make the patient worse.

1040
00:57:44,240 --> 00:57:47,160
Speaker 2: You wrote a book Us Versus Them, talked about this notion.

1041
00:57:47,440 --> 00:57:53,160
Speaker 2: You know, well, you frame globalization and I think a

1042
00:57:53,280 --> 00:57:57,440
Speaker 2: very honest and reflective way winners and losers, etc. We experience.

1043
00:57:57,640 --> 00:58:00,640
Speaker 2: This is a period of deglobalization. How do you describe

1044
00:58:00,680 --> 00:58:01,080
Speaker 2: this moment?

1045
00:58:01,080 --> 00:58:02,840
Speaker 1: I would say this is a period where the United

1046
00:58:02,880 --> 00:58:06,840
Speaker 1: States is no longer driving globalization. There are still processes

1047
00:58:06,880 --> 00:58:09,360
Speaker 1: of globalization that are occurring. I mean, when I think

1048
00:58:09,360 --> 00:58:12,640
Speaker 1: about globalization, I think about people and goods and services

1049
00:58:12,640 --> 00:58:15,360
Speaker 1: and capital ideas moving across borders faster and faster all

1050
00:58:15,360 --> 00:58:17,600
Speaker 1: over the world. There are certainly lots of that that

1051
00:58:17,720 --> 00:58:21,600
Speaker 1: is happening, more and more technology facilitates it. But the

1052
00:58:21,680 --> 00:58:25,160
Speaker 1: United States is no longer driving it. In many ways,

1053
00:58:25,200 --> 00:58:29,560
Speaker 1: the US is assertively moving away from it, and there

1054
00:58:29,680 --> 00:58:35,480
Speaker 1: is a level of decoupling happening directly between the United

1055
00:58:35,480 --> 00:58:39,760
Speaker 1: States and China and forcing other countries to make uncomfortable decisions.

1056
00:58:40,760 --> 00:58:43,280
Speaker 1: So yeah, I don't think we're in an environment where

1057
00:58:43,280 --> 00:58:46,760
Speaker 1: globalization is sort of being driven by the economists and

1058
00:58:46,800 --> 00:58:49,280
Speaker 1: the political science and everything to say about it. The

1059
00:58:49,320 --> 00:58:52,440
Speaker 1: politics are throwing sand in the gears and it acts

1060
00:58:52,560 --> 00:58:57,360
Speaker 1: as attacks on the productivity. But we can't just think

1061
00:58:57,360 --> 00:58:59,400
Speaker 1: of this in terms of the economic shift. We also

1062
00:58:59,440 --> 00:59:02,040
Speaker 1: have to wreckonized that. So much of this is that

1063
00:59:02,080 --> 00:59:04,480
Speaker 1: the US political system, while the US economy has been

1064
00:59:04,480 --> 00:59:06,800
Speaker 1: doing so well. The US dollar has been doing so well.

1065
00:59:07,800 --> 00:59:10,840
Speaker 1: Political system is not. And I think this is the

1066
00:59:10,880 --> 00:59:13,480
Speaker 1: fundamental issue that when I started my work on my

1067
00:59:13,520 --> 00:59:17,200
Speaker 1: PhD back in nineteen eighty nine, wall came down. And

1068
00:59:17,520 --> 00:59:19,120
Speaker 1: I think part of the reason I wanted to do

1069
00:59:19,160 --> 00:59:21,640
Speaker 1: what I do is because this was a time of

1070
00:59:22,280 --> 00:59:25,880
Speaker 1: great pride to be an American because the wall coming down.

1071
00:59:26,120 --> 00:59:28,760
Speaker 1: I mean, you had all these captive nations, East Bloc,

1072
00:59:29,320 --> 00:59:32,160
Speaker 1: Soviet Union. We're looking at our system and saying, dah,

1073
00:59:32,200 --> 00:59:34,520
Speaker 1: I wish my country worked like that. I wish I

1074
00:59:34,560 --> 00:59:36,800
Speaker 1: had some of that liberty, some of that rule of law.

1075
00:59:36,960 --> 00:59:40,720
Speaker 1: And in thirty five years, people still want access to

1076
00:59:40,760 --> 00:59:44,479
Speaker 1: the US market and our technologies and our companies best

1077
00:59:44,480 --> 00:59:47,760
Speaker 1: in the world. But nobody around the world looks at

1078
00:59:47,760 --> 00:59:50,960
Speaker 1: the US political system says I wish my political system

1079
00:59:51,040 --> 00:59:55,320
Speaker 1: ran like that in thirty five years. And I think

1080
00:59:55,440 --> 01:00:01,480
Speaker 1: that it is very hard to overestimate act of that

1081
01:00:01,680 --> 01:00:05,480
Speaker 1: damage on relations around the world long term, because you're

1082
01:00:05,520 --> 01:00:08,920
Speaker 1: no longer driving what people want to be, You're no

1083
01:00:08,960 --> 01:00:10,000
Speaker 1: longer acting.

1084
01:00:10,320 --> 01:00:13,080
Speaker 2: And that's this fundamental notion. I mean, these are these

1085
01:00:13,400 --> 01:00:16,120
Speaker 2: the historic project of our founding fathers. You're referencing this

1086
01:00:16,200 --> 01:00:21,680
Speaker 2: notion of popular sovereignty broadly and well, maybe reserve that

1087
01:00:21,760 --> 01:00:24,720
Speaker 2: popular sovereignty aside, but this notion of the rule of law.

1088
01:00:24,840 --> 01:00:26,680
Speaker 2: I'll get to the role of Dawn which you coined,

1089
01:00:26,920 --> 01:00:31,080
Speaker 2: which I'm crypt this notion of coequal branches of government.

1090
01:00:32,320 --> 01:00:35,280
Speaker 2: What what what aspects of our political system do you

1091
01:00:35,320 --> 01:00:40,320
Speaker 2: fear our most being? You know, sign well are are

1092
01:00:40,440 --> 01:00:44,360
Speaker 2: looked at negatively now in that respect that.

1093
01:00:44,440 --> 01:00:49,920
Speaker 1: They're fundamental on the global stage. You talk about commitment

1094
01:00:50,360 --> 01:00:54,120
Speaker 1: to being the architect of global free trade, which the

1095
01:00:54,200 --> 01:00:57,040
Speaker 1: United States is no longer willing to do. And not

1096
01:00:57,080 --> 01:01:00,600
Speaker 1: only that, but the idea of a well regulated remarket

1097
01:01:00,680 --> 01:01:02,960
Speaker 1: increasingly people looking at the US and saying, that's the

1098
01:01:02,960 --> 01:01:07,040
Speaker 1: country that supports kleptocracy, This is a country that supports

1099
01:01:07,280 --> 01:01:09,760
Speaker 1: state corruption, and that the best way to cut a

1100
01:01:09,840 --> 01:01:11,640
Speaker 1: deal is to make sure that you're paying off the

1101
01:01:11,680 --> 01:01:13,240
Speaker 1: right people that are close to the administration.

1102
01:01:13,280 --> 01:01:15,640
Speaker 2: So you're talking, I mean, now you're getting into I mean,

1103
01:01:16,360 --> 01:01:18,840
Speaker 2: just looking at the self dealing, looking at.

1104
01:01:18,920 --> 01:01:21,560
Speaker 1: That's part of it. Yeah, And it's one thing what

1105
01:01:21,880 --> 01:01:23,680
Speaker 1: some would called the crony capitalism.

1106
01:01:24,120 --> 01:01:25,840
Speaker 2: They're sort of almost paid a play.

1107
01:01:26,440 --> 01:01:28,520
Speaker 1: Here's from so many leaders. Yeah, I have, and I

1108
01:01:28,520 --> 01:01:31,000
Speaker 1: have so many CEOs inside the United States who are

1109
01:01:31,000 --> 01:01:32,080
Speaker 1: global CEOs.

1110
01:01:33,080 --> 01:01:34,960
Speaker 2: No, And I mean I could agree with you more.

1111
01:01:34,960 --> 01:01:36,720
Speaker 2: I mean I did a Patriot site where I literally

1112
01:01:36,800 --> 01:01:40,680
Speaker 2: am selling kneepads Trump signature series needpads.

1113
01:01:40,720 --> 01:01:42,720
Speaker 1: You said, I think you said they sold out, they

1114
01:01:42,720 --> 01:01:43,200
Speaker 1: sold out?

1115
01:01:43,400 --> 01:01:46,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, and yeah I could. Uh, well, there are

1116
01:01:46,560 --> 01:01:48,760
Speaker 2: plenty of reasons why they've sold out, because there's so

1117
01:01:48,840 --> 01:01:52,200
Speaker 2: many examples of law firms and universities and media companies

1118
01:01:52,840 --> 01:01:55,280
Speaker 2: and not least of which some of my friends and

1119
01:01:55,360 --> 01:01:58,400
Speaker 2: CEOs that have sold out in that spirit. And but

1120
01:01:58,520 --> 01:02:01,480
Speaker 2: they're selling out what makes this, to your point, a

1121
01:02:01,560 --> 01:02:04,960
Speaker 2: reputation of this country. They're selling out what makes the

1122
01:02:05,040 --> 01:02:09,120
Speaker 2: United States so central and so important? And so I

1123
01:02:09,160 --> 01:02:12,760
Speaker 2: couldn't agree with you more. But it's interesting from your perspective.

1124
01:02:12,760 --> 01:02:15,560
Speaker 2: Though you started with free trade, you talked about sort

1125
01:02:15,600 --> 01:02:19,920
Speaker 2: of just the global leadership that this country has advanced

1126
01:02:19,960 --> 01:02:22,280
Speaker 2: in terms of building alliances and building that.

1127
01:02:22,440 --> 01:02:27,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, collective security and NATO is still there, and arguably

1128
01:02:27,200 --> 01:02:30,720
Speaker 1: NATO is stronger than it was before because it's expanded

1129
01:02:30,720 --> 01:02:33,240
Speaker 1: a couple of Nordic countries and the countries are spending more.

1130
01:02:33,520 --> 01:02:37,600
Speaker 1: But the belief that the United States would actually stand

1131
01:02:37,600 --> 01:02:43,040
Speaker 1: for collective security if the country was invaded, that's deteriorated significantly.

1132
01:02:43,360 --> 01:02:46,960
Speaker 1: And you know that belief in American reliability is core

1133
01:02:47,680 --> 01:02:51,080
Speaker 1: to collective security, so you undermine that foreign aid. The

1134
01:02:51,160 --> 01:02:54,200
Speaker 1: United States has historically provided more foreign aid than any

1135
01:02:54,240 --> 01:02:56,840
Speaker 1: other country in the world, still providing a lot of

1136
01:02:56,840 --> 01:03:00,320
Speaker 1: support to Israel and to Egypt, but around the world world,

1137
01:03:00,320 --> 01:03:03,920
Speaker 1: they're shutting it down. And the United Nations was created

1138
01:03:03,960 --> 01:03:06,880
Speaker 1: by the United States right here in San Francisco, right

1139
01:03:06,880 --> 01:03:11,840
Speaker 1: here in San Francisco, and the UN Charter reflected American values,

1140
01:03:11,920 --> 01:03:15,280
Speaker 1: and it's something I'm really proud of. And I think

1141
01:03:15,360 --> 01:03:17,680
Speaker 1: part of the reason that we don't support the UN

1142
01:03:17,800 --> 01:03:20,600
Speaker 1: right now is because we look at what the UN

1143
01:03:20,680 --> 01:03:25,000
Speaker 1: stands for and we feel a little shame that it's

1144
01:03:25,800 --> 01:03:28,840
Speaker 1: it's not what America stands for anymore today, and we

1145
01:03:28,880 --> 01:03:31,320
Speaker 1: don't like that, don't like we don't like something that

1146
01:03:31,360 --> 01:03:35,960
Speaker 1: we created making us look, you know, reflective on ourselves.

1147
01:03:36,280 --> 01:03:39,200
Speaker 1: But I think all of these things from the perspective

1148
01:03:39,200 --> 01:03:42,720
Speaker 1: of other countries around the world that really do need

1149
01:03:42,840 --> 01:03:46,160
Speaker 1: rule of law, they really do need collective security, they

1150
01:03:46,160 --> 01:03:50,440
Speaker 1: do need us led multilateral trade because otherwise they don't

1151
01:03:50,480 --> 01:03:55,480
Speaker 1: have the ability to operate in a in a global

1152
01:03:55,520 --> 01:03:58,160
Speaker 1: system that is a law of the jungle. They just don't.

1153
01:03:58,160 --> 01:04:00,280
Speaker 1: They don't have the ability to operate and sics seed

1154
01:04:00,360 --> 01:04:03,200
Speaker 1: under rule of don. They need rule of law, and

1155
01:04:03,560 --> 01:04:05,080
Speaker 1: that I think that's a serious problem.

1156
01:04:05,240 --> 01:04:07,840
Speaker 2: Where you talk about apex predators or this notion of

1157
01:04:07,880 --> 01:04:11,600
Speaker 2: that sort of t rex presidency where the guy either

1158
01:04:11,640 --> 01:04:13,600
Speaker 2: devours you or he mates with you one or the other.

1159
01:04:13,640 --> 01:04:16,680
Speaker 2: You have that option. It's no ver it is visual,

1160
01:04:16,720 --> 01:04:18,520
Speaker 2: forgive me, but I mean this notion of the rule

1161
01:04:18,560 --> 01:04:21,320
Speaker 2: of the jungle, uh, and the rule of don And

1162
01:04:22,200 --> 01:04:25,320
Speaker 2: I you know, I've used your phrase. And I hope

1163
01:04:25,320 --> 01:04:29,000
Speaker 2: it is donning on people. How how real and serious

1164
01:04:29,480 --> 01:04:32,280
Speaker 2: uh that is. And it's examples here in California and

1165
01:04:32,280 --> 01:04:35,040
Speaker 2: where they're receiving it of so much of this disproportionately

1166
01:04:35,040 --> 01:04:38,080
Speaker 2: but increasingly. I hope people are growing more and more

1167
01:04:38,080 --> 01:04:40,160
Speaker 2: conscious of this. But I want to just close a

1168
01:04:40,440 --> 01:04:42,840
Speaker 2: mind full of time on two things that we haven't

1169
01:04:42,840 --> 01:04:46,439
Speaker 2: brought up. This issue of AI. Seems also that we're

1170
01:04:46,480 --> 01:04:51,960
Speaker 2: seeding global leadership on AI and AI standards. California has

1171
01:04:52,000 --> 01:04:55,200
Speaker 2: led this country in terms of at least addressing frontier

1172
01:04:55,240 --> 01:04:59,040
Speaker 2: model regulation. There's some legislation in New York right now

1173
01:04:59,560 --> 01:05:03,439
Speaker 2: that potentially can mere aspects of what we have done

1174
01:05:03,440 --> 01:05:06,880
Speaker 2: here in our state. We take the issue very seriously

1175
01:05:06,880 --> 01:05:09,480
Speaker 2: as the birthplace and obviously the center of the universe

1176
01:05:09,480 --> 01:05:12,920
Speaker 2: in terms of AI. But you mentioned China in the

1177
01:05:12,960 --> 01:05:16,880
Speaker 2: relationship to AI. What does AI mean from your perspective

1178
01:05:17,120 --> 01:05:22,640
Speaker 2: when we look at geopolitically and risks, rewards, opportunities, challenges

1179
01:05:22,840 --> 01:05:30,120
Speaker 2: in the next two three years, superintelligence, national security, truth trust,

1180
01:05:30,720 --> 01:05:31,640
Speaker 2: What do you make of AI.

1181
01:05:32,080 --> 01:05:36,280
Speaker 1: I'm not worried, particularly about superintelligence. I think that I'm

1182
01:05:36,360 --> 01:05:39,320
Speaker 1: much more worried about what human beings that control and

1183
01:05:39,360 --> 01:05:42,520
Speaker 1: program the algorithms are doing with them. If they are

1184
01:05:42,560 --> 01:05:45,240
Speaker 1: bad actors, if they're indifferent, if they're just focused on

1185
01:05:45,560 --> 01:05:49,240
Speaker 1: short term producier responsibility as opposed to well being long term,

1186
01:05:49,280 --> 01:05:53,120
Speaker 1: and if they're not really capitalists, because really capitalists care

1187
01:05:53,120 --> 01:05:56,480
Speaker 1: about not just profits but also losses. The capitalists also

1188
01:05:56,480 --> 01:05:59,280
Speaker 1: when they experience losses. And yet a lot of the

1189
01:05:59,280 --> 01:06:03,280
Speaker 1: people that are driving AI do not account for the

1190
01:06:03,400 --> 01:06:07,240
Speaker 1: losses in society, do not account for the losses in

1191
01:06:07,400 --> 01:06:11,640
Speaker 1: the economy that come from damages from product damages that

1192
01:06:11,720 --> 01:06:13,840
Speaker 1: come from rolling these things out. So I think we

1193
01:06:13,880 --> 01:06:16,440
Speaker 1: need more capitalism among the AI folks in that regard,

1194
01:06:18,000 --> 01:06:23,480
Speaker 1: you know, But I am a enormous enthusiast about this technology.

1195
01:06:23,560 --> 01:06:26,400
Speaker 1: I mean, you're just down there in Brazil and you

1196
01:06:26,440 --> 01:06:29,640
Speaker 1: saw Bill Gaate saying he's focused less on climate change

1197
01:06:29,720 --> 01:06:32,320
Speaker 1: because not because he doesn't care, not because he doesn't

1198
01:06:32,320 --> 01:06:34,840
Speaker 1: believe the science. He certainly does, but because he thinks

1199
01:06:34,840 --> 01:06:37,480
Speaker 1: that what happens in AI is going to be more

1200
01:06:37,520 --> 01:06:40,480
Speaker 1: impactful than your term to determine all these things. I

1201
01:06:40,520 --> 01:06:45,840
Speaker 1: buy that I do. I mean, I think that we

1202
01:06:46,040 --> 01:06:51,760
Speaker 1: can exceed sustainable development goals that we've been failing to

1203
01:06:51,880 --> 01:06:56,400
Speaker 1: meet in terms of poverty, in terms of availability of

1204
01:06:56,440 --> 01:06:59,440
Speaker 1: food and water, in terms of shelter, in terms of

1205
01:06:59,480 --> 01:07:03,040
Speaker 1: efficient see of transfer of resources. So much the world

1206
01:07:03,120 --> 01:07:05,240
Speaker 1: is so wealthy, and yet we waste so much that

1207
01:07:05,280 --> 01:07:09,520
Speaker 1: is so inefficient. AI can fix that, but we need

1208
01:07:09,560 --> 01:07:12,000
Speaker 1: to make sure that everyone has access to it. It

1209
01:07:12,080 --> 01:07:13,880
Speaker 1: needs to be invested in and not just be a

1210
01:07:13,920 --> 01:07:16,760
Speaker 1: tool that's available for a tiny percentage of really rich

1211
01:07:16,800 --> 01:07:19,960
Speaker 1: people and everybody else loses their job or everybody else

1212
01:07:20,000 --> 01:07:24,720
Speaker 1: doesn't have access to it. And that requires governance that

1213
01:07:24,800 --> 01:07:28,919
Speaker 1: requires not just companies to be in charge of the regulations,

1214
01:07:28,960 --> 01:07:33,760
Speaker 1: because companies ultimately aren't accountable citizens. It means that like

1215
01:07:33,880 --> 01:07:37,880
Speaker 1: the states, the cities, the countries, and even in some cases,

1216
01:07:37,920 --> 01:07:42,960
Speaker 1: the world needs to take some responsibility. And Americans Chinese

1217
01:07:43,000 --> 01:07:45,240
Speaker 1: are really enthusiastic about what AI is going to do.

1218
01:07:45,680 --> 01:07:49,280
Speaker 1: Americans are scared. Yeah, and the reason they're scared is

1219
01:07:49,320 --> 01:07:53,280
Speaker 1: because the US they don't believe in their leaders to

1220
01:07:53,320 --> 01:07:56,600
Speaker 1: take care of them. Americans should be the one that's

1221
01:07:56,600 --> 01:07:59,280
Speaker 1: the most excited about the technology, right, I mean, this

1222
01:07:59,360 --> 01:08:03,920
Speaker 1: is a frontier economy, right. We started so much of

1223
01:08:04,040 --> 01:08:08,760
Speaker 1: bringing new technology and making this country incredible on the

1224
01:08:08,760 --> 01:08:10,920
Speaker 1: back of that and then exporting it all over the world.

1225
01:08:11,160 --> 01:08:14,680
Speaker 1: And now we have the most transformative technology that humankind

1226
01:08:14,720 --> 01:08:17,400
Speaker 1: has ever come close to creating. And you're telling me

1227
01:08:17,479 --> 01:08:20,840
Speaker 1: that Americans are scared of it. That is a governance issue.

1228
01:08:22,640 --> 01:08:29,479
Speaker 2: It's interesting unpacking that's at the core this notion of

1229
01:08:29,479 --> 01:08:35,080
Speaker 2: truth and trust governance is that's that's compelling. What is

1230
01:08:35,160 --> 01:08:38,439
Speaker 2: less compelling to me, but seems more compelling than any

1231
01:08:38,479 --> 01:08:41,439
Speaker 2: other issue in America today is an issue you just

1232
01:08:41,479 --> 01:08:44,479
Speaker 2: did a video on and that is this damn Epstein thing.

1233
01:08:45,880 --> 01:08:48,000
Speaker 1: What what is? It's amazing?

1234
01:08:48,160 --> 01:08:53,840
Speaker 2: It is just completely captured everyone's attention. You you, you,

1235
01:08:53,280 --> 01:08:57,960
Speaker 2: you presented your point of view, and you wrote about

1236
01:08:58,000 --> 01:09:03,240
Speaker 2: and did a video saying Trump has literally he could

1237
01:09:03,280 --> 01:09:07,640
Speaker 2: not have scripted a more ineffective response and he, I

1238
01:09:07,640 --> 01:09:09,600
Speaker 2: mean in every way, just flobbing all. I mean, what

1239
01:09:10,560 --> 01:09:12,960
Speaker 2: is the Epstein files represent to you? What does it mean?

1240
01:09:13,200 --> 01:09:16,439
Speaker 2: I'm just curious what I mean, what is it? What

1241
01:09:16,560 --> 01:09:19,200
Speaker 2: is our fascination? Why is this? I mean, besides just

1242
01:09:19,240 --> 01:09:23,840
Speaker 2: the atrocities that occurred and the victims, beyond that and

1243
01:09:23,880 --> 01:09:27,439
Speaker 2: God bless on that, what is it about the Epstein

1244
01:09:27,520 --> 01:09:30,400
Speaker 2: files that has captured so much imagination attention?

1245
01:09:30,520 --> 01:09:33,479
Speaker 1: I mean, we talked about cleptocracy, We talk about the

1246
01:09:33,560 --> 01:09:36,439
Speaker 1: capturing of the American political system by people of power.

1247
01:09:36,479 --> 01:09:38,200
Speaker 1: We talk about rule of law and the two tier

1248
01:09:38,240 --> 01:09:41,720
Speaker 1: system of justice. I think that what Epstein represents two

1249
01:09:41,760 --> 01:09:48,720
Speaker 1: Americans are these assholes can get away with anything. Well,

1250
01:09:49,000 --> 01:09:52,599
Speaker 1: you know, my mother used to read the Enquirer every weekend.

1251
01:09:52,960 --> 01:09:56,040
Speaker 1: She didn't have a high school education, and she wasn't

1252
01:09:56,120 --> 01:09:59,559
Speaker 1: you know, she wasn't on top of all the global issues.

1253
01:10:00,080 --> 01:10:04,760
Speaker 1: She knew in her heart that these people with a

1254
01:10:04,800 --> 01:10:06,720
Speaker 1: lot of money and a lot of power in the

1255
01:10:06,800 --> 01:10:08,280
Speaker 1: United States weren't going to take care of her and

1256
01:10:08,320 --> 01:10:11,519
Speaker 1: her kids didn't trust them. And you know, this is

1257
01:10:11,520 --> 01:10:14,000
Speaker 1: before algorithms, this is before the blog is feared, this

1258
01:10:14,040 --> 01:10:17,240
Speaker 1: is before cable news. But nonetheless, you know, and I

1259
01:10:17,320 --> 01:10:20,800
Speaker 1: think that what we see today with the Epstein files,

1260
01:10:21,240 --> 01:10:27,320
Speaker 1: after decades of Americans, wealthy Americans just not taking enough

1261
01:10:27,400 --> 01:10:30,800
Speaker 1: care of their fellow citizens and the wealthiest people in

1262
01:10:30,840 --> 01:10:35,080
Speaker 1: the world right now, Americans, how much do they actually care?

1263
01:10:36,000 --> 01:10:41,200
Speaker 1: Do they feel responsibility and accountability for their fellow citizens,

1264
01:10:41,360 --> 01:10:43,200
Speaker 1: never mind the rest of the people on the planet,

1265
01:10:43,200 --> 01:10:44,880
Speaker 1: which I would kind of like if they'd pay attention

1266
01:10:44,920 --> 01:10:47,719
Speaker 1: to that too, but just their fellow citizens. I mean,

1267
01:10:47,800 --> 01:10:50,120
Speaker 1: you know, Bill Gates is revered around the world for

1268
01:10:50,160 --> 01:10:54,000
Speaker 1: a lot of what he has done. Elon not so much,

1269
01:10:54,080 --> 01:10:59,280
Speaker 1: Bezos not so much. And I think that that's a

1270
01:10:59,320 --> 01:11:03,160
Speaker 1: failure of the American political system and we see it

1271
01:11:03,200 --> 01:11:06,320
Speaker 1: playing out in the Epstein files right now. And yeah,

1272
01:11:06,640 --> 01:11:10,200
Speaker 1: of course there's also Algorithmically, people are focusing on one

1273
01:11:10,200 --> 01:11:12,000
Speaker 1: side or the other, and Trump has flipped so much

1274
01:11:12,040 --> 01:11:15,360
Speaker 1: on this, but people understand that the core something is

1275
01:11:15,479 --> 01:11:20,880
Speaker 1: rotten right at the core of this venture. And it's

1276
01:11:21,040 --> 01:11:23,000
Speaker 1: part of the reason why they think why people think

1277
01:11:23,040 --> 01:11:25,559
Speaker 1: that no matter who they vote for, they can't fix this,

1278
01:11:25,960 --> 01:11:29,840
Speaker 1: they can't resolve this, and you know, I think it's

1279
01:11:29,840 --> 01:11:30,479
Speaker 1: not going away.

1280
01:11:31,960 --> 01:11:33,720
Speaker 2: I can't close on that. So I want to ask

1281
01:11:33,800 --> 01:11:37,280
Speaker 2: you give me why we should be optimistic in the

1282
01:11:37,320 --> 01:11:40,880
Speaker 2: next five to ten years. What gives you optimism? I mean,

1283
01:11:40,880 --> 01:11:45,040
Speaker 2: you mentioned AI should give us more optimism than pessimism,

1284
01:11:45,320 --> 01:11:49,320
Speaker 2: But what aspects of some of these global trend lines

1285
01:11:49,360 --> 01:11:52,800
Speaker 2: that we opened up with give you more confidence and

1286
01:11:53,200 --> 01:11:56,080
Speaker 2: distill you with a bigger sense of well being than

1287
01:11:56,200 --> 01:11:59,440
Speaker 2: perhaps most of us are aware or should.

1288
01:12:00,840 --> 01:12:07,040
Speaker 1: Look. Young people are more global, they're online a lot, yeah,

1289
01:12:07,080 --> 01:12:10,080
Speaker 1: but they're also skeptical of what they're being fed in

1290
01:12:10,120 --> 01:12:14,120
Speaker 1: a healthy way and their friends. When I was growing up,

1291
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Speaker 1: my friends were playing stickball in the backyard. They all

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01:12:17,840 --> 01:12:21,000
Speaker 1: grew up within three blocks. There were some Irish, some

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01:12:21,080 --> 01:12:25,360
Speaker 1: Puerto Ricans, some Italians. There want nothing else. Kids today

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01:12:25,880 --> 01:12:28,800
Speaker 1: are you know, playing fortnite on Twitch with kids from

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01:12:28,840 --> 01:12:31,920
Speaker 1: South Korea and they're watching K pop and everything else.

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01:12:31,880 --> 01:12:35,640
Speaker 2: With politicians on Fortnite Friday? Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, at

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01:12:35,720 --> 01:12:37,360
Speaker 2: Twitch con as well. But keep going.

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Speaker 1: So these kids they global and you've done podcasts with

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01:12:41,400 --> 01:12:45,280
Speaker 1: some of them. Yeah, right, so important. They're far they're

1300
01:12:45,360 --> 01:12:48,280
Speaker 1: far more opportunities to connect with their fellow human beings.

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01:12:48,320 --> 01:12:51,200
Speaker 1: Why do they care more about climate than the forty fifty, sixty,

1302
01:12:51,240 --> 01:12:54,599
Speaker 1: seventy year olds because they're the ones that are actually

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01:12:54,640 --> 01:13:00,160
Speaker 1: inheriting that world. Why are they more skeptical of the

1304
01:13:00,280 --> 01:13:04,000
Speaker 1: US political system because they see that the seventy and

1305
01:13:04,040 --> 01:13:07,519
Speaker 1: eighty year olds that are running the Republican Democratic Party

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01:13:07,760 --> 01:13:11,679
Speaker 1: won't let go, won't let go after well beyond they should.

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01:13:12,000 --> 01:13:14,920
Speaker 1: And this is a huge Trump problem, this is a

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01:13:15,000 --> 01:13:20,280
Speaker 1: huge Biden problem. I mean, come on, people, and I

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01:13:20,320 --> 01:13:23,160
Speaker 1: think I think the young people. Okay, maybe they don't

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01:13:23,240 --> 01:13:25,880
Speaker 1: all believe that the way they're going to fix this

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01:13:26,000 --> 01:13:29,640
Speaker 1: is by voting, but they're going to do something, you know,

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01:13:29,640 --> 01:13:32,000
Speaker 1: They're not just going to sit and demographically they're going

1313
01:13:32,040 --> 01:13:33,920
Speaker 1: to be in charge, and I hope they're going to

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01:13:33,960 --> 01:13:34,600
Speaker 1: be successful.

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Speaker 2: Ian Brenner, thank you for being on our podcast. I

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01:13:38,040 --> 01:13:38,519
Speaker 2: appreciate it.

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Speaker 1: Better be with you. Thank you