WEBVTT - NFL Divisional Round Weekend Preview (Ep. 151) 0:00:00.240 --> 0:00:16.000 It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros. 0:00:16.320 --> 0:00:17.760 Welcome in everybody to betting pros. 0:00:17.800 --> 0:00:21.319 It's v Joey p Joe Pizzapia and today it's about 0:00:21.360 --> 0:00:23.640 the divisional round of the NFL playoffs. 0:00:23.680 --> 0:00:25.560 So Wildcard weekend was fun. 0:00:26.160 --> 0:00:29.400 Lots of exciting performances, some one sided games and some 0:00:29.560 --> 0:00:32.840 closer ones, that's for sure, just as the Raiders and Bengals. 0:00:32.880 --> 0:00:35.560 But those are all in the dust. Those are all history. 0:00:35.560 --> 0:00:37.800 And Scott Bogman is going to help me break all 0:00:37.960 --> 0:00:40.560 the games for this weekend down. We've got four games, 0:00:40.600 --> 0:00:42.639 two on Saturday, two on Sunday. 0:00:43.120 --> 0:00:44.640 Scott Bogman, did you learn. 0:00:44.479 --> 0:00:48.280 Anything from these teams that have advanced and survived after 0:00:48.280 --> 0:00:48.960 the first round? 0:00:49.479 --> 0:00:52.120 I think we learned that the Chiefs and Bills game 0:00:52.200 --> 0:00:54.600 might be the highest scoring game in the history of football. 0:00:54.640 --> 0:00:59.520 I mean that the Bills literally scored a touchdown every 0:00:59.560 --> 0:01:02.200 single time they touched the ball, so I think it 0:01:02.320 --> 0:01:06.640 was seven for seven in touchdown drives. And then the 0:01:06.680 --> 0:01:09.520 last drive they had was the victory formation. So they 0:01:09.520 --> 0:01:13.920 were outstanding. And the Steelers woke the Chiefs up in 0:01:14.000 --> 0:01:16.920 the second quarter, and you know you wake up Patrick 0:01:16.959 --> 0:01:20.360 Mahomes and you're gonna get a lot of points. Even 0:01:20.400 --> 0:01:22.800 you know, Tyreek Kills a little gimpy going in again game, 0:01:22.880 --> 0:01:26.840 he looked fine. Travis Kelce was throwing touchdowns. They throw 0:01:26.920 --> 0:01:29.479 touchdowns to offensive linemen. I mean, it was an embarrassment 0:01:29.680 --> 0:01:32.880 for my Steelers, but the Chiefs look like they're peaking 0:01:32.920 --> 0:01:34.600 at the absolute right time right now. 0:01:34.840 --> 0:01:36.680 Well, my Patriots were equally embarrassed. 0:01:36.720 --> 0:01:37.280 So that's okay. 0:01:37.360 --> 0:01:38.800 We can go lick our wounds for the rest of 0:01:38.840 --> 0:01:42.280 the offseason. But yeah, high total on this Bill's Chiefs game, 0:01:42.319 --> 0:01:43.920 and we're gonna break them all down. But we got 0:01:43.920 --> 0:01:47.000 to start here with Saturday at four thirty Eastern, and 0:01:47.080 --> 0:01:50.800 it's the Cincinnati Bengals taking on the Tennessee Titans. The 0:01:50.800 --> 0:01:53.160 Bengals are three and a half point underdogs in this 0:01:53.160 --> 0:01:55.720 one heading to Tennessee, which feels about right to me. 0:01:56.600 --> 0:01:58.639 On the money line, if you like the Cincinnati Bengals, 0:01:58.680 --> 0:02:01.640 you're getting plus one fifty too. The total for this 0:02:01.720 --> 0:02:05.400 game is forty seven. So Boggs, when you're looking at 0:02:05.400 --> 0:02:07.400 this one, what's your first instinct, because I know what 0:02:07.480 --> 0:02:09.160 mine is, but I want to get your take on 0:02:09.200 --> 0:02:09.720 this first. 0:02:09.919 --> 0:02:11.280 The Bengals are peaking right now. 0:02:11.440 --> 0:02:14.000 And I hate to say it because I despise them, 0:02:14.040 --> 0:02:17.880 but they've been playing great football man, and Joe Burrow 0:02:17.880 --> 0:02:22.040 looks unflappable right now. Jamar Chase is outstanding, Joe Mixon 0:02:22.120 --> 0:02:22.640 is healthy. 0:02:23.000 --> 0:02:23.240 You know. 0:02:23.960 --> 0:02:27.040 In the defense, I mean, they crushed Derek Carr. This 0:02:27.120 --> 0:02:30.040 pass rush is incredible. I mean, you just go back 0:02:30.080 --> 0:02:32.640 to the offseason and you think of this Trey Hendrickson 0:02:32.720 --> 0:02:36.440 signing and it was just outstanding for this team. They 0:02:36.440 --> 0:02:38.760 still need a little help in the secondary and linebackers. 0:02:38.800 --> 0:02:40.320 You can check out my mock draft to see where 0:02:40.320 --> 0:02:44.720 I went there. But you know, I think that they're peaking. 0:02:44.840 --> 0:02:46.959 And this is the first week back for Derrick Henry 0:02:47.000 --> 0:02:49.600 and we're not as we're recording this, we're pretty sure 0:02:49.600 --> 0:02:51.720 Derek Henry is going to be back, but he could 0:02:51.800 --> 0:02:54.839 still be inactive right and AJ Brown is just back, 0:02:54.919 --> 0:02:57.440 So we don't know what. 0:02:57.280 --> 0:02:58.600 Tennessee team we're gonna get. 0:02:58.639 --> 0:03:01.120 Are we gonna get the good you know, run it 0:03:01.160 --> 0:03:03.240 down your throat forty times with Dereck Henry is going 0:03:03.280 --> 0:03:05.880 to be used sparingly. AJ Brown's had a couple of 0:03:05.919 --> 0:03:08.080 good games, but Ryan Tannehill's kind of been hit or 0:03:08.080 --> 0:03:10.359 miss this year. So for me, I'm going to take 0:03:10.360 --> 0:03:12.760 the Bengals on the money line straight up to win 0:03:12.800 --> 0:03:15.440 this game on the road and go to the AFC Championship. 0:03:15.520 --> 0:03:18.480 As much as it discussed me over under, I'm a 0:03:18.520 --> 0:03:22.440 little wishy washy. I'm gonna take the under just because 0:03:22.480 --> 0:03:25.240 I think Tennessee is going to win time of possession 0:03:25.919 --> 0:03:28.079 in this game because Derek Henry is back. I'll give 0:03:28.080 --> 0:03:31.280 them that at least so, But I just think the 0:03:31.280 --> 0:03:34.240 Bengals are too good to be beaten by Tennessee right now. 0:03:35.080 --> 0:03:37.200 You know we did not rehearse this ahead of time. 0:03:37.520 --> 0:03:38.840 I feel the exact same way. 0:03:38.960 --> 0:03:39.200 Wow. 0:03:39.320 --> 0:03:41.600 The reason why is not because of last week's game. 0:03:41.640 --> 0:03:43.840 Actually, in some ways, it's in spite of it, because 0:03:43.880 --> 0:03:46.080 I did not like the fact that they let the 0:03:46.160 --> 0:03:48.119 Raiders hang around, and I did not like the fact 0:03:48.160 --> 0:03:49.600 that it got it took their foot off the gas 0:03:49.600 --> 0:03:50.000 a little bit. 0:03:50.080 --> 0:03:51.160 They took their foot off the gas. 0:03:51.160 --> 0:03:53.040 But on top of that, Bogs, when you watch that game, 0:03:53.040 --> 0:03:54.400 they also had a couple of injuries too. 0:03:54.520 --> 0:03:57.320 They they they allow the Raiders. 0:03:57.040 --> 0:03:58.480 To hang around, and you don't want to do that 0:03:58.520 --> 0:04:00.000 with the Titans. I just want to put that out, 0:04:00.240 --> 0:04:01.520 especially you don't want to do it on the road. 0:04:01.920 --> 0:04:03.560 But I'm going back to the game a couple weeks 0:04:03.560 --> 0:04:05.880 ago against the Kansas City Chiefs where I made a 0:04:05.880 --> 0:04:08.600 big statement I remember on the TV show about it, 0:04:08.600 --> 0:04:10.600 which is, this is the game where you find out 0:04:10.680 --> 0:04:13.560 who the Bengals are. And the Bengals showed you, and 0:04:13.560 --> 0:04:14.880 they showed you in a big way who they were 0:04:14.880 --> 0:04:18.039 against the Kansas City Chiefs, and that, to me is 0:04:18.080 --> 0:04:20.440 who the Bengals are. And I feel like they take 0:04:20.480 --> 0:04:23.520 it personally that you know, they won the division, they 0:04:23.560 --> 0:04:26.320 won a playoff game, and they're still underdogs. I think 0:04:26.360 --> 0:04:28.400 they take it personally. I think Joe Burrow does too, 0:04:28.760 --> 0:04:30.640 and I think he is a leader in the real deal. 0:04:30.680 --> 0:04:32.800 And I think my favorite wager is, just like you, 0:04:32.920 --> 0:04:35.000 it's the Bengals on the money line, and we all 0:04:35.000 --> 0:04:36.720 know one of these games is going to go sideways, right, 0:04:36.839 --> 0:04:38.920 one of the fielders is not going to win at 0:04:39.000 --> 0:04:42.120 least one, And looking at it, it's a hard sell 0:04:42.200 --> 0:04:44.320 for me on the other three home teams. It just 0:04:44.520 --> 0:04:46.680 is this is the one to me that's wide open. 0:04:46.800 --> 0:04:49.159 If we thought Tennessee was a paper tiger going into 0:04:49.440 --> 0:04:52.320 the playoffs anyway, even getting Derrick Henry back, There's been 0:04:52.360 --> 0:04:53.960 games where they had Dereck Henry and they lost, and 0:04:54.000 --> 0:04:55.560 you look around each other like, how did the Titans 0:04:55.600 --> 0:04:58.320 lose this game? I worry about Tannehill turn the ball 0:04:58.360 --> 0:05:00.920 over at a crucial time, and I just feel like 0:05:01.000 --> 0:05:03.600 this is the sneaky one where you're looking at it 0:05:03.680 --> 0:05:06.440 and it's only three and a half. Right, So it's 0:05:06.440 --> 0:05:09.799 not like Vegas is confident at all, Right, Tennessee Titans 0:05:09.800 --> 0:05:11.320 going into this game where it's like, oh, it's a 0:05:11.320 --> 0:05:13.440 five and a half point spread or something like that. No, no, no, 0:05:13.800 --> 0:05:16.680 it's basically like, eh, as little as you could possibly 0:05:16.680 --> 0:05:19.280 favor them, we will. So I'm with you on this. 0:05:19.360 --> 0:05:22.600 I can't believe we're agreeing on the Cincinnati Bengals. My goodness, 0:05:22.680 --> 0:05:23.479 that's exciting. 0:05:23.160 --> 0:05:25.760 But imo, they are changed. 0:05:25.960 --> 0:05:27.880 The forty seven is a number that I don't care 0:05:27.920 --> 0:05:30.200 for either. I think the best wager is the money line. 0:05:30.240 --> 0:05:31.599 And if you want to put this in a parlay 0:05:32.440 --> 0:05:34.960 and do all four games, which by the way, we 0:05:35.000 --> 0:05:37.120 were one game shy. We were five or six in 0:05:37.160 --> 0:05:39.520 the super parlay. Broke my heart. 0:05:39.720 --> 0:05:41.960 Sorry, boys, well in parlay, but he was six and 0:05:42.040 --> 0:05:43.120 h against the spread this week. 0:05:43.279 --> 0:05:46.920 That's very good, very good. But yeah, Cincinnati Bengals, if 0:05:46.920 --> 0:05:49.480 you want to put him in this week, I would 0:05:49.480 --> 0:05:51.040 put him with the three and a half. But if 0:05:51.080 --> 0:05:52.359 you want to go crazy and put them on the 0:05:52.360 --> 0:05:54.359 money line, you can, but I'm with you. That's the 0:05:54.360 --> 0:05:56.400 wager I like in this game. Let's let's look at 0:05:56.400 --> 0:05:59.560 some individual props potentially in this game too. Let's talk 0:05:59.600 --> 0:06:02.280 about past numbers here, Joe Burrow two seventy eight and 0:06:02.320 --> 0:06:04.600 a half, Ryan Tannehill two thirty eight and a half. 0:06:04.640 --> 0:06:07.839 If we like the Cincinnati Bengals, do we like the 0:06:07.920 --> 0:06:09.520 over here and the Joe Burrow number? 0:06:09.839 --> 0:06:12.479 I mean I do like the over, but I'm not 0:06:12.560 --> 0:06:15.240 betting that number with confidence. That's a lot of yards, 0:06:15.279 --> 0:06:18.800 so pretty had two seventy five is a lot. I 0:06:18.800 --> 0:06:21.640 think he's going to be right somewhere between two seventy 0:06:21.640 --> 0:06:24.440 five and three hundred, so there's just no way I'd 0:06:24.480 --> 0:06:24.760 touch it. 0:06:25.440 --> 0:06:27.560 The Chase number, to me is actually one that I 0:06:27.600 --> 0:06:29.440 would go over on. It's seventy seven and a half. 0:06:29.480 --> 0:06:30.440 What are your thoughts on that. 0:06:30.400 --> 0:06:35.719 One that's receiving mm hmm, Yeah, I mean I think 0:06:36.320 --> 0:06:38.880 I think I would rather go over than under that number, 0:06:39.800 --> 0:06:42.039 But I think I would rather do total yards because 0:06:42.040 --> 0:06:45.760 we saw Chase Gate used like Deebo Samuel last week, 0:06:45.800 --> 0:06:48.680 he had four rushes, So I think I would go 0:06:48.760 --> 0:06:51.480 with a total yards number over a receiving yards only 0:06:51.520 --> 0:06:52.400 four Chase. 0:06:52.680 --> 0:06:55.360 All right, fair enough, And right now as recording this, 0:06:55.480 --> 0:06:57.720 we still don't have a number on Derrick Henry. So 0:06:57.800 --> 0:06:59.760 if that comes through, you always see this up on 0:06:59.760 --> 0:07:02.279 Twitter and we'll answer that. What about on the passing 0:07:02.320 --> 0:07:04.400 side for Ryan Tannehill, two thirty eight and a half 0:07:04.440 --> 0:07:07.240 is the number? Your thoughts on that, especially getting Derek 0:07:07.279 --> 0:07:11.280 Henry back theoretically what impact that has potentially on that number? 0:07:11.480 --> 0:07:13.640 I think you have to go over that number, especially 0:07:13.680 --> 0:07:16.200 if you're picking Cincinnati to win this game. Straight up, mean, 0:07:16.600 --> 0:07:19.640 you know, it should mean that Tennessee is playing catch 0:07:19.680 --> 0:07:21.400 up at some point in this game, even if it's 0:07:21.440 --> 0:07:23.360 only the fourth quarter. You know, you have put a 0:07:23.400 --> 0:07:26.240 seventy yard drive together with mainly passes. You have aj 0:07:26.360 --> 0:07:29.440 Brown back, you have Julio healthy finally, you know, so 0:07:29.680 --> 0:07:32.280 all your pieces are there for Tennessee. There's no excuses 0:07:32.280 --> 0:07:35.400 for them in this game. So I think I would 0:07:35.440 --> 0:07:37.280 go over that number. If I had to pick it. 0:07:37.840 --> 0:07:38.360 I'll tell you what. 0:07:38.440 --> 0:07:40.559 If you don't like the passing number for Joe Burrow, 0:07:40.560 --> 0:07:42.880 how about the passing tds at one and a half. 0:07:42.920 --> 0:07:44.480 That feels like an I take the over on that 0:07:44.560 --> 0:07:44.960 I crush. 0:07:45.040 --> 0:07:47.240 That seems like an easy over to me too, So 0:07:47.320 --> 0:07:49.200 if you're having any sort of pause, that's the way 0:07:49.240 --> 0:07:52.000 I would approach it. In Bogs and I agree yet again. 0:07:52.040 --> 0:07:53.600 There all right, let's move on to the night game 0:07:53.640 --> 0:07:56.200 on Saturday night. The San Francisco forty nine Ers, who 0:07:56.200 --> 0:07:59.240 we told you were going to upset the Dallas Cowboys, 0:07:59.240 --> 0:08:01.840 and sure enough they did. The forty nine Ers, who 0:08:01.840 --> 0:08:03.920 are gonna go into Green Bay. Now green Bay rested 0:08:03.920 --> 0:08:06.840 off the by Aaron Rodgers' tow has been on ice 0:08:06.920 --> 0:08:08.640 or heat or whatever the hell he's doing to his 0:08:08.720 --> 0:08:12.360 toe Co Packers. The Packers are five and a half 0:08:12.400 --> 0:08:14.440 point favorites in this one. No surprise there. If that 0:08:14.520 --> 0:08:18.400 number feels respectable, we're respecting the Packers, but we're also 0:08:18.520 --> 0:08:21.320 respecting the strong close to the season for the forty 0:08:21.400 --> 0:08:24.520 nine ers. You have forty seven, just like the other game. 0:08:24.720 --> 0:08:27.960 Interesting that both games on Saturday are forty seven, So 0:08:28.000 --> 0:08:30.480 the forty nine Ers defense, you know, has played relatively 0:08:30.560 --> 0:08:34.240 well here. Deebo Samuel has been fantastic. The question is, Bogs, 0:08:34.640 --> 0:08:37.160 can they do enough here to cover this five and 0:08:37.200 --> 0:08:39.480 a half or do you think a rested Packers team 0:08:39.920 --> 0:08:41.400 in Green Bay rolls them. 0:08:41.920 --> 0:08:45.079 I'm gonna take the Packers and look this game, I'm 0:08:45.160 --> 0:08:46.760 gonna take the over too. I think I like the 0:08:46.880 --> 0:08:50.679 over more in this game, just because the Packers have 0:08:50.800 --> 0:08:53.160 not looked good on defense, particularly against the rush, and 0:08:53.160 --> 0:08:55.320 that's exactly what the Niners do. They run the ball 0:08:55.360 --> 0:08:59.000 down people's throats. Eli Mitchell twenty seven carries last week, 0:08:59.040 --> 0:09:03.040 Deebo had ten. They look outstanding in this run game 0:09:03.040 --> 0:09:05.040 and the Packer has been bad against it. But that 0:09:05.120 --> 0:09:08.359 Niners defense, you know, Bosa is gonna play, but he's questionable. 0:09:08.440 --> 0:09:10.560 Fred Warrener's little banged up now, and the secondary has 0:09:10.559 --> 0:09:12.760 been the issue for that team the entire year. Aaron 0:09:12.840 --> 0:09:14.920 Rodgers isn't going to be stopped in this game. So 0:09:15.240 --> 0:09:17.000 I think there's gonna be a lot of points here, 0:09:17.360 --> 0:09:21.000 and I just am. The thing that I'm most confident 0:09:21.080 --> 0:09:24.960 in is Jimmy g making that big boneheaded mistake third 0:09:25.040 --> 0:09:27.800 or fourth quarter and the Packers taking advantage of it. 0:09:27.960 --> 0:09:31.280 He did it in Dallas, and Dallas just couldn't score. 0:09:31.920 --> 0:09:33.880 You know, they had too min eight penalties on offense 0:09:34.360 --> 0:09:36.760 thirteen penalties. Obviously a lot of controversy to the end 0:09:36.800 --> 0:09:39.960 of that game and stuff. But for me, I think 0:09:40.000 --> 0:09:42.680 I have to go with the Packers at home and 0:09:42.760 --> 0:09:44.440 lay the five and a half. And I really like 0:09:44.640 --> 0:09:46.920 that it moved to five and a half instead of six, 0:09:47.720 --> 0:09:50.080 because I think six kind of makes me queezy. But 0:09:50.120 --> 0:09:51.480 five and a half I like a lot. So give 0:09:51.480 --> 0:09:53.760 me the Packers and the over in this game, all right. 0:09:53.800 --> 0:09:56.920 The consensus continues with Bogging and myself, I like the over, 0:09:56.960 --> 0:09:58.600 and I also like the five and a half on 0:09:58.640 --> 0:10:01.240 the Packers side as well. All the public money is 0:10:01.280 --> 0:10:04.480 coming in, the vast majority of it on the Packers, 0:10:04.520 --> 0:10:06.600 and typically that's something whenever I see it, I get 0:10:06.640 --> 0:10:09.600 a little antsy about myself. But I just I can't 0:10:09.840 --> 0:10:12.120 do it. I'm not gonna go against Aaron Rodgers, at 0:10:12.200 --> 0:10:15.440 least not this week. But believe me, if they end 0:10:15.520 --> 0:10:18.319 up losing to the forty nine Ers, I'm not gonna 0:10:18.320 --> 0:10:19.200 be sad about. 0:10:19.000 --> 0:10:19.440 It at the end. 0:10:20.160 --> 0:10:21.080 I guess here's the question. 0:10:21.160 --> 0:10:22.679 You and Welsh will be so happy. 0:10:25.040 --> 0:10:28.240 Well, here, here's a question for you. When you're looking 0:10:28.240 --> 0:10:29.760 at the two coaches in this game, and you know 0:10:29.800 --> 0:10:31.360 these teams have met up before, and if you were 0:10:31.360 --> 0:10:32.839 a call a few years ago on their path to 0:10:32.880 --> 0:10:35.520 the Super Bowl, the forty nine Ers absolutely just ran 0:10:35.640 --> 0:10:36.680 rough shot over the Packers. 0:10:36.760 --> 0:10:38.960 Now very it feels like a different pack. 0:10:38.960 --> 0:10:41.200 I think Aaron Rodgers owing three in the playoffs against 0:10:41.240 --> 0:10:41.720 the Niners. 0:10:41.800 --> 0:10:44.280 Well, that was my last question. Is you know all 0:10:44.320 --> 0:10:46.959 that public money going there. It's plus two hundred on 0:10:47.000 --> 0:10:48.679 the money line for San Francisco. I don't think it's 0:10:48.720 --> 0:10:51.720 a crazy wager if you know it's not to go 0:10:51.760 --> 0:10:53.360 ahead with the forty nine Ers. It's one of those 0:10:53.360 --> 0:10:54.719 things where we look at and go, oh, all the 0:10:54.760 --> 0:10:56.920 public money, it feels like a all done deal. 0:10:57.280 --> 0:10:57.680 It's not. 0:10:58.400 --> 0:11:01.559 I think this game has some tightness potentially in it, 0:11:01.760 --> 0:11:03.839 and I would not be surprised that if Garoppolo does 0:11:03.880 --> 0:11:07.480 avoid catastrophic mistakes, that the forty nine Ers can pull 0:11:07.520 --> 0:11:09.720 out a victory here, even though it's in Green Bay 0:11:09.760 --> 0:11:12.920 and all of the other factors here. But I don't 0:11:12.920 --> 0:11:15.120 think it's investable for me personally, and I just won't 0:11:15.160 --> 0:11:15.720 bring that to light. 0:11:15.880 --> 0:11:18.040 We're down to the best eight teams in the NFL, 0:11:18.200 --> 0:11:21.439 so all these games are going to be close. And 0:11:22.280 --> 0:11:24.400 would I be shocked if the Niners beat the Packers 0:11:24.400 --> 0:11:27.600 on the road. Absolutely not. I just think that you 0:11:27.720 --> 0:11:30.679 get a flawless Jimmy G game if he does that, 0:11:30.760 --> 0:11:32.160 and those are rare for Jimmy G. 0:11:32.360 --> 0:11:34.760 And I think he's you can win the Super Bowl 0:11:34.800 --> 0:11:35.040 with him. 0:11:35.040 --> 0:11:37.560 I think he's a good enough quarterback, but he is 0:11:37.600 --> 0:11:41.959 that Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, Brad Johnson, you know line 0:11:42.160 --> 0:11:44.920 of good enough quarterback, but he is not going to 0:11:45.040 --> 0:11:46.720 will you to win many games. 0:11:47.120 --> 0:11:49.720 So, you know, I think. 0:11:49.600 --> 0:11:52.679 That's where the big disconnect is. And you know, I 0:11:52.800 --> 0:11:55.240 enjoy trends. I think they're good and they're fun to 0:11:55.240 --> 0:11:59.160 look at, but I will never invest in a trend. 0:11:59.320 --> 0:12:01.440 You know, sometimes they pay out like that, you know, 0:12:01.520 --> 0:12:06.080 weird Jacksonville beating the Colts at home in Jacksonville since 0:12:06.120 --> 0:12:09.360 twenty fourteen. Sometimes they pay out like that. But how 0:12:09.400 --> 0:12:12.920 different is the twenty fourteen Jaguars to the twenty twenty 0:12:12.960 --> 0:12:16.160 one Wars Right, so unbelievable that I think that stuff 0:12:16.200 --> 0:12:18.480 is vastly overrated. W Right, you have to live in 0:12:18.520 --> 0:12:22.000 the now exactly, especially because rosters turnover so frequently. 0:12:22.280 --> 0:12:25.280 Passing props here, Jimmy Garoppolo to forty three and a half, 0:12:25.320 --> 0:12:27.680 Aaron Rodgers to sixty five and a half, Any interest 0:12:27.720 --> 0:12:28.120 in either of. 0:12:28.080 --> 0:12:30.920 Those two numbers, Rogers over Jimmy under You're gonna win 0:12:30.960 --> 0:12:33.400 on the strength of the run game, if you The Niners. 0:12:33.160 --> 0:12:33.880 Agreed with that. 0:12:34.240 --> 0:12:37.400 Speaking of which, passing touchdowns Garoppolo one and a half, 0:12:37.520 --> 0:12:39.400 Rogers two and a half. That's pretty big number there. 0:12:39.440 --> 0:12:42.080 For Rogers two and a half, I'm gonna stay away from. 0:12:42.320 --> 0:12:44.600 You know, I think the numbers right, and he probably 0:12:44.640 --> 0:12:46.320 throws three touchdowns, but I'm not going to bet on 0:12:46.360 --> 0:12:49.800 it because you know, I mean, he just DeVante Adams 0:12:49.800 --> 0:12:52.280 steps out at the one, and here's Aaron Rodgers, Here's 0:12:52.800 --> 0:12:55.320 aj Dillon, here's Aaron Jones. You know, they have plenty 0:12:55.360 --> 0:12:57.280 of other ways to go, you know, bootleg to the 0:12:57.280 --> 0:12:59.400 tight end, you know, so many different ways to go 0:12:59.720 --> 0:13:03.959 and scenario. So that's not what I'm gonna take. Although 0:13:03.960 --> 0:13:06.280 I did hit my I had the dak plus four 0:13:06.360 --> 0:13:08.320 hundred any time touchdown last week and I got there 0:13:08.360 --> 0:13:08.560 you go. 0:13:08.600 --> 0:13:09.600 Also, there you go. 0:13:10.160 --> 0:13:12.920 Let's go to the receiving props here, speaking of DeVante 0:13:12.920 --> 0:13:16.200 Adams his numbers ninety one and a half, Deebo Samuel's 0:13:16.240 --> 0:13:18.120 fifty four and a half, and George Kittle, who's been 0:13:18.120 --> 0:13:20.439 relatively quiet these last few weeks. On this forty nine 0:13:20.559 --> 0:13:23.680 run just forty eight and a half. So anything tempting 0:13:23.679 --> 0:13:25.840 on the over under forty eight Hittle for Kittle, Yeah, 0:13:25.840 --> 0:13:26.760 that's what I was looking at. 0:13:26.880 --> 0:13:28.880 Kittle's the one, you know, and I know I said 0:13:28.920 --> 0:13:31.000 I'd take the under on Jimmy G's passing yards, but 0:13:31.880 --> 0:13:34.800 he passes to different guys in different games, in different scenarios, 0:13:34.840 --> 0:13:37.360 And last week Kittle was used mainly as a blocker. 0:13:37.360 --> 0:13:39.480 He's probably gonna be mainly a blocker in this game too. 0:13:39.640 --> 0:13:42.320 But if he catches three passes, he's getting over that 0:13:42.360 --> 0:13:44.000 forty eight and a half because I think at least 0:13:44.040 --> 0:13:45.839 two of them are going to go for twenty because 0:13:45.840 --> 0:13:48.440 he gets the ball and then runs some mffors over. 0:13:48.600 --> 0:13:52.160 I mean, that's what Kittle does, right, So I think 0:13:52.840 --> 0:13:55.080 that is the most intriguing one to me of all 0:13:55.120 --> 0:13:55.440 of them. 0:13:55.760 --> 0:13:58.640 Here's your combo number for Deebo Samuel, ninety three and 0:13:58.640 --> 0:14:00.079 a half over under. 0:14:00.920 --> 0:14:03.160 One of the best offensive players in the league. I 0:14:03.160 --> 0:14:05.320 think you gotta take over. If it's less than one hundred, 0:14:05.360 --> 0:14:07.160 you got to take over on deepo every single week. 0:14:07.480 --> 0:14:09.040 The other one I think is sneaky is that one 0:14:09.120 --> 0:14:10.880 Lazard thirty eight and a half. I would go over 0:14:10.960 --> 0:14:12.680 on that too. It's a good trend with La Sam 0:14:12.760 --> 0:14:14.679 vs is going to be out. That's one that I 0:14:14.679 --> 0:14:17.000 would lock in now. I think that's a very good 0:14:17.080 --> 0:14:20.000 That would be the biggest gimme, Like, if you're going 0:14:20.040 --> 0:14:22.800 to try to like run up the Deebo DeVante Adams 0:14:22.800 --> 0:14:25.000 and you need a third one, Lazard would be the 0:14:25.000 --> 0:14:27.160 other one for me. I think that's the way I 0:14:27.160 --> 0:14:29.400 would go. All right, let's move on from Saturday to 0:14:29.480 --> 0:14:32.840 Sunday's games. NFC matchup at three o'clock Eastern. The Los 0:14:32.880 --> 0:14:35.800 Angeles Rams taking on the Tampa Bay Bucks and defending 0:14:35.880 --> 0:14:39.480 rating undisputed champions of the World. Are three point favorites 0:14:39.480 --> 0:14:42.160 in this one. Forty eight and a half is the number. 0:14:42.240 --> 0:14:47.120 So the Rams finally showed up. So that's great. Dominated, Yeah, 0:14:47.160 --> 0:14:49.960 they dominated, But do it does it travel? That's the 0:14:50.080 --> 0:14:53.080 question here, Bogs, that's a huge question up and can 0:14:53.120 --> 0:14:56.240 they go to Tampa and win on the road. I say, no, 0:14:56.400 --> 0:14:57.040 what say you? 0:14:57.520 --> 0:15:00.480 There's no way I'm betting against Tom Brady. But I'll 0:15:00.520 --> 0:15:03.160 tell you what, I don't like betting this game. And 0:15:03.320 --> 0:15:05.240 because right now we don't know if Tristan Wirfs or 0:15:05.360 --> 0:15:07.360 Ryan Jensen are gonna end up playing for Tampa Bay. 0:15:07.680 --> 0:15:10.880 Losing two offensive linemen is enormous. Leonard Fournette also not 0:15:10.920 --> 0:15:13.040 trending in the right direction, it seems like right now, 0:15:13.120 --> 0:15:16.600 so he is a maybe in this game, it looks like. So, 0:15:17.760 --> 0:15:20.960 you know, those are big pieces to lose for Tampa Bay. 0:15:21.280 --> 0:15:26.040 And look, the Rams won and they were at home. 0:15:26.880 --> 0:15:28.880 You didn't have to have Matt Stafford do a bunch 0:15:28.880 --> 0:15:31.040 for them to win that game. Kyler Murray more lost 0:15:31.040 --> 0:15:33.080 that than Matt Stafford would not won it. You know, 0:15:33.160 --> 0:15:35.640 he didn't make the big mistakes that he had been making, 0:15:35.800 --> 0:15:39.120 been handed out turnovers like their Christmas gifts, you know, 0:15:39.200 --> 0:15:43.000 previous three weeks before that game, and it was kind 0:15:43.040 --> 0:15:45.560 of weird to watch this offense kind of crumble in 0:15:45.600 --> 0:15:49.080 on itself. So I'm I think you can do that 0:15:49.120 --> 0:15:51.880 to beat the Cardinals when they're shooting themselves in the foot. 0:15:52.000 --> 0:15:53.560 You're not gonna get that from Tom Brady. 0:15:53.840 --> 0:15:57.360 You know, so I think that Safford makes a mistake 0:15:57.440 --> 0:15:59.520 or two in this game that cost the Rams the game, 0:15:59.840 --> 0:16:04.400 and I you know, it's just impossible to bet against 0:16:04.400 --> 0:16:07.520 Brady in the playoffs. So give me Tampa Bay and 0:16:07.640 --> 0:16:09.560 give me the under in this game, just because that 0:16:09.840 --> 0:16:12.560 Rams defense did look good. And we have question Offen 0:16:12.600 --> 0:16:14.680 some line of stuff going on with Tampa Bay right now, 0:16:14.800 --> 0:16:17.240 and Matt Stafford hasn't is not playing at his peak. 0:16:17.360 --> 0:16:20.640 So all that adds up to me taking Tampa Bay 0:16:20.640 --> 0:16:21.440 in the under in this game. 0:16:21.520 --> 0:16:23.360 Yeah, the under I think is the most appealing wager 0:16:23.360 --> 0:16:25.280 in this game to the under forty eight and a half. 0:16:25.880 --> 0:16:27.640 I'm in locks up with you again here, and this 0:16:27.680 --> 0:16:29.880 is very rare that we're, you know, both kind of 0:16:29.880 --> 0:16:30.480 seeing everything. 0:16:30.600 --> 0:16:31.200 Only one more. 0:16:31.120 --> 0:16:32.880 Game to go. We'll differ on this one. I feel like, 0:16:33.120 --> 0:16:33.880 I don't know. 0:16:33.800 --> 0:16:34.880 We'll see, we'll see. 0:16:34.880 --> 0:16:37.000 I didn't think we're gonna differ as much as I 0:16:37.000 --> 0:16:38.880 think we're gonna be in locks up so much. Excuse 0:16:38.920 --> 0:16:41.880 me on the Cincinnati game, But I also you know, 0:16:42.080 --> 0:16:44.120 it took a big game for Odell Beckham stepping up, 0:16:44.160 --> 0:16:46.560 and again I don't think that's something you can look 0:16:46.640 --> 0:16:49.160 every single week to and rely on if you're the Rams. 0:16:49.200 --> 0:16:51.880 And I feel like the Rams felt like they accomplished 0:16:51.880 --> 0:16:53.760 something last week, and I don't think they have yet. 0:16:53.960 --> 0:16:56.000