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Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock bet We

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Speaker 1: are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is the

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Speaker 1: betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the

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Speaker 1: wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Milman. I am

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Speaker 1: joined as always by my still bff, my companion, my

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Speaker 1: compadre professional better Simon Hunter.

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Speaker 2: Hello, Simon Shot. How are we doing? Brother?

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Speaker 1: We are freaking great. You and I are still BFFs.

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Speaker 1: I don't want anyone worried about if people were asking

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Speaker 1: me questions. People were concerned. Some people loved when it

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Speaker 1: got spicy on Tuesday. I enjoyed it too. I feel

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Speaker 1: like it's going to make it for a more interesting Thursday.

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Speaker 1: As we are on the Thursday week six episode trying

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Speaker 1: to narrow down our options on our quest for our

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Speaker 1: five favorite picks, and if Tuesday show was any indication,

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Speaker 1: it might be tougher to narrow it down on our

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Speaker 1: journey than usual. A couple quick reminders. Number One, we

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Speaker 1: tease this on Sunday. Thanks to our wonderful benefactors at

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Speaker 1: hard Rock bet Or, we are going to be relaunching

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Speaker 1: our free to play five games against the spread pick

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Speaker 1: them contests that we've done for the past couple of years.

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Speaker 1: A lot of our old head listeners know what this is.

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Speaker 1: But you guys get to compete against me and Simon

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Speaker 1: in a free to play pick them contest that will

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Speaker 1: be prizing from hard Rock Bet. We're going to announce

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Speaker 1: the ability to sign up next week. It's a blast

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Speaker 1: and we're excited to participate and join. Everybody who's going

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Speaker 1: to sign up to compete against me and Simon will

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Speaker 1: give up all the details starting next week. Subscribe to

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Speaker 1: Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify, wherever you get

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Speaker 1: your pods. Let's get this thing going. It's time for

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Speaker 1: sharp calls, half.

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Speaker 2: Answer this boat all right, rain range, telephone range.

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Speaker 1: Somebody said, maybe you do the.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, busy busy week. I feel like we did pretty

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Speaker 2: good though giving out what side we thargeting professional side,

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Speaker 2: and it's it's pretty much gone that way. We've already

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Speaker 2: seen Panthers line moved, so that was a regret should

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Speaker 2: I made. Simon says, I thought it was gonna maybe

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Speaker 2: get the four. That's why I didn't. The three and

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Speaker 2: a halfs are basically gone. There's pretty much just three's

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Speaker 2: out now on Carolina. I got a lot of calls

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Speaker 2: about that one, A lot of love for the Jags,

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Speaker 2: a lot of love for the Colts, uh, which again

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Speaker 2: both sides. It feels like that we were on from

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Speaker 2: the get go Pittsburgh surprisingly, and I do think it

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Speaker 2: was about the number right, like a show, and that

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Speaker 2: number was four. I know a lot of guys are

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Speaker 2: grabbed the four, four and a half and even the five.

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Speaker 2: So if people are wondering what side the pros around,

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Speaker 2: I think they're joining the public on that side. I

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Speaker 2: think they really liked the Pittsburgh in that exact spot,

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Speaker 2: which is a game we can go through. I got

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Speaker 2: a lot of fun numbers on it, didn't talk much

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Speaker 2: about it. Still trying to figure out it. H forty

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Speaker 2: nine ers. I know a lot of pros that love

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Speaker 2: the forty nine ers on the spot. They love the number,

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Speaker 2: they love this matchup for them, and a lot of

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Speaker 2: what they say is true. The Bucks are banged up,

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Speaker 2: they do have injuries now to their secondary as well.

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Speaker 2: Like I get it, that's a game I guess we

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Speaker 2: can go through. I just total blind spot to me.

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Speaker 2: I just thought that was a Bucks number minus three, prety, Like,

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Speaker 2: I don't think you practiced yesterday, so did not really interesting.

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Speaker 2: The pros are so heavy on this forty nine ers team,

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Speaker 2: and that's always something that just sends the alarms off

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Speaker 2: when it's like, what am I missing here? Why do

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Speaker 2: they love this number so much? You know, it's it's

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Speaker 2: a unique spot. We talked about it briefly too, you know,

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Speaker 2: we talked about how we liked the Bears. I know

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Speaker 2: a lot of pros. They really like the Commanders. They

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Speaker 2: liked the number, they like the spot. So that's one

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Speaker 2: we can talk about. The last one I think we

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Speaker 2: knew was coming. Chiefs all pros. It's gonna be pros

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Speaker 2: versus Joe's. I know a couple pros that have taken

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Speaker 2: positions on Detroit, but they're doing it when most I

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Speaker 2: think pros have, which is their model has this as

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Speaker 2: Detroit is a favorite, which I think most pros do

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Speaker 2: and like. To me, my push back to them is

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Speaker 2: that should tell you something when everyone has the same

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Speaker 2: number and it's way off in the books, like I said,

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Speaker 2: are taking a ton of money and they're not budgeting here,

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Speaker 2: so that number has come down like it was stuck

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Speaker 2: in minus two and a half. There are some one

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Speaker 2: and a half's now popping up if you want to

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Speaker 2: get the chief side. But that just sounds like it's

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Speaker 2: the pro side, and I'm not shocked by that. I

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Speaker 2: just thought there's gonna be more money in respect on

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Speaker 2: this Detroit side for professional betters, and it just seems

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Speaker 2: like they're going to trust the trends in the spot

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Speaker 2: and back this Chiefs teamer. So really really fun matchups

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Speaker 2: to break down this week.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I really want to get into that Bucks Niners

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Speaker 1: game because you have been on the bus and I

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Speaker 1: am shocked at all the action coming in on the

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Speaker 1: Niners from professionals. We're going to dig into all that

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Speaker 1: and more. We'll get to brass balls, biggest bets, all

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Speaker 1: that kind of good stuff as we go through the show. First,

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Speaker 1: want to talk about Dallas at Carolina. You liked it

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Speaker 1: at three and a half. We both bet it at

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Speaker 1: three and a half. This is I think where the

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Speaker 1: slow burn anger began on Tuesday because I was not

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Speaker 1: as committed to Carolina as you were. The line has

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Speaker 1: moved in that direction as I've done more research. It

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Speaker 1: obviously makes sense and we can see why the number

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Speaker 1: has been moving in that direction. Cowboys dead last in

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Speaker 1: defensive DVOA. They give up the most yards per attempt

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Speaker 1: the most that number increase most yards per attempt meaning

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Speaker 1: passing attempt. That number increases against mobile qbs, which I

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Speaker 1: would qualify Bryce Young as a mobile QB for his

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Speaker 1: ability to move around in the pocket and keep his

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Speaker 1: eyes down field. Everything about Bryce Young has been improving

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Speaker 1: the past couple of weeks, and we've talked about Dave

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Speaker 1: Kanalis and how he's been able to make Bryce Young

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Speaker 1: a better quarterback. Also, more than likely they're getting back

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Speaker 1: Shuba Hubbard. Dallas still riddled with injuries. Even if they

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Speaker 1: hold up like they did against the Jets, the Panthers

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Speaker 1: offense is more than capable of neutralizing all of the

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Speaker 1: offensive capabilities that the Cowboys have when they're playing at

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Speaker 1: home in Carolina. Totally makes sense. I've come to love

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Speaker 1: this play. I betted at three and a half it

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Speaker 1: is now at three.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, like I said, should should have just made this one,

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Speaker 2: Simon says. I again, thought it was gonna come down,

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Speaker 2: but didn't think could come down that quick. The professionals

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Speaker 2: came in on it, and yeah, I still love it,

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Speaker 2: Still want people to bet it. I hope people have

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Speaker 2: bet it when it was three and a half. We

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Speaker 2: can start with all the Dax stats if we want,

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Speaker 2: just because I have heard pushback from some pros and

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Speaker 2: some people that why they are betting Dallas, and I said, well,

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Speaker 2: you're lucky. It's down to three now, so you've got

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Speaker 2: even better of a number, which again the DAK members

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Speaker 2: here pretty alarming. We've already talked about Dak verst bad teams,

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Speaker 2: and he burned us last week with it. We know

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Speaker 2: how dominant Dak is against bad teams, right, He's forty

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Speaker 2: and thirteen straight up when he's playing against a team

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Speaker 2: below five hundred, so seventy six percent, thirty three eighteen

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Speaker 2: and two so sixty five percent against the spread. He's

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Speaker 2: you know, winning those games by nine point seven points

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Speaker 2: per game. So we've seen historically Dak does really well

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Speaker 2: the exact spots. And another one that jumped out. You

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Speaker 2: know Dak, you would think, okay, this is a back

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Speaker 2: to back road game, how is he doing in these

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Speaker 2: type of spots. He's twelve and five against the spread,

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Speaker 2: and in the first three months of the season he

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Speaker 2: is nine to one against the spread. So it's not ideal.

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Speaker 2: Like when you dive into those numbers. It'say like, Okay,

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Speaker 2: Dak performs well here. But I do want to give

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Speaker 2: out the stats we do like about Carolina and why

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Speaker 2: I talked a little bit about it. I just think

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Speaker 2: they're a different team at home. I know it's a

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Speaker 2: crazy small sample. We can go back to just Bryce's career,

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Speaker 2: which he's dreadful on the road. I don't know if

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Speaker 2: we've seen the stat chat he is one in fifteen

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Speaker 2: on the road straight up in his career.

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Speaker 1: I have not seen that.

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Speaker 2: Well, yeah, so that already should let you know that. Okay,

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Speaker 2: he just doesn't win road games. So that could be

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Speaker 2: our thing where we just stay away from him on

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Speaker 2: the road. I mean, obviously spread we can talk about,

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Speaker 2: but never take them in our money line parlay that

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Speaker 2: we love doing these underdogs. But when he got consistently

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Speaker 2: home games, so back to back home games in his career,

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Speaker 2: he's four and one against the spread. So again, very

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Speaker 2: small sample, but that just shows in his career when

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Speaker 2: he is back to back home games, he's comfortable, he

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Speaker 2: does well, and the market still undervalues him. He's averaging

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Speaker 2: twenty six points per game in those matchups. So again

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Speaker 2: that's a big deal. But chat he's talking about this

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Speaker 2: is a historically bad Dallas defense, which another stat I loved,

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Speaker 2: so since two thousand and three. Again, this is how

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Speaker 2: unique of a spot this is. You have a defense

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Speaker 2: and an offense in Dallas. It's given up four hundred

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Speaker 2: plus yards per game. Again very unique. So when you

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Speaker 2: get six games in the season, these teams again that

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Speaker 2: give up a shit ton of yards defensively, they're thirty nine,

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Speaker 2: fifty against the spread, twenty six or forty against the

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Speaker 2: spread in this exact spot. So you see that they

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Speaker 2: can score, but the market tends to favorite their offense,

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Speaker 2: where what burns these people is the defense. That's why

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Speaker 2: when I look at that number, the hook did matter.

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Speaker 2: You wanted the three and a half because it feels

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Speaker 2: like when I look at these numbers, it's telling me

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Speaker 2: dak is going to win this game somehow. But if

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Speaker 2: you get the hook, it's a real live cover with

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Speaker 2: this this Caroline team. So again I don't mind getting

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Speaker 2: the three. It's the professional number you've seen. It's all

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Speaker 2: the money. I mean, I talk to bookmakers, it's all Dallas.

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Speaker 2: So that is very smart professional money that I've hit

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Speaker 2: these different books that have moved from three and a

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Speaker 2: half to three, and it's holding there. So if you

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Speaker 2: want to be patient, if you missed the three and

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Speaker 2: a half, there are still a couple out there if

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Speaker 2: you can find it. If not, I think if you wait,

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Speaker 2: we'll see much more professional when it comes out. I

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Speaker 2: do see this getting back to three and a half

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Speaker 2: because I just see the general public coming in so

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Speaker 2: heavy on this cowboy side, where you know the numbers,

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Speaker 2: the trends and stuff. It backs up the love for Dak.

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Speaker 2: So I think you can be patient here and get

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Speaker 2: this three and a half again again. We talked about

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Speaker 2: making this one of our bets today. I'm not going

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Speaker 2: to force it in just because we did miss the

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Speaker 2: best number and I personally have only bet this three

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Speaker 2: and a half, so I don't want to be given

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Speaker 2: out the three on this Carolina side.

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Speaker 1: Right we talked about making it our brass balls better

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Speaker 1: of the week. We're not that stat about Dak against

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Speaker 1: bad teams is somewhat concerning, but I do think it's

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Speaker 1: a little bit mitigated because most of that has come

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Speaker 1: when he had some semblance of a defense and this

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Speaker 1: was just a better team. And right now this defense

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Speaker 1: is truly awful and You can look at that Jets

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Speaker 1: game last week, and you can see if you squint,

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Speaker 1: if you really hard, you could see how that game

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Speaker 1: is much closer, Like the Jets just consistently give points away,

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Speaker 1: like truly give touchdowns away, and so if you get

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Speaker 1: beyond sort of the variance plays all of a sudden,

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Speaker 1: it's a different game. And this Cowboys team is really

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Speaker 1: defensively so freaking bad. I like Bryce in a shootout,

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Speaker 1: I just do. I think Bryce might be psychotic, like

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Speaker 1: the way he is just unconscious about throwing the ball

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Speaker 1: down the field. They were down seventeen to nothing, and

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Speaker 1: then at one point like he had thrown a pick,

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Speaker 1: then he had thrown a pass it hit a camera

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Speaker 1: guy in the head. He's just laughing about it, like

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Speaker 1: he's playing I think as well as he can play.

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Speaker 1: And I really like Canalis as a coach. So we

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Speaker 1: like the Panthers, but it's not gonna be our brass

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Speaker 1: Balls bet of the week because we don't like the

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Speaker 1: number as much, at least the one that we can

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Speaker 1: share with our listeners and our viewers. However, the LA

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Speaker 1: Chargers are four point favorites at the Miami Dolphins. This

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Speaker 1: is going to be our brass balls better the Week

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Speaker 1: presented by hard Rock Bet you know.

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Speaker 2: What it takes, brass balls.

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Speaker 1: We came on the air, we were talking about this,

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Speaker 1: and you had one question, are we stepping in it?

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Speaker 1: And I completely think we are. I was nervous about

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Speaker 1: this one on Wednesday afternoon because the move had been

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Speaker 1: against us. We talked about it on Tuesday and both

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Speaker 1: like the Chargers the mod the line had dropped from

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Speaker 1: four and a half to four. That's where I actually

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Speaker 1: bet it. Over the past twenty four hours in a

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Speaker 1: lot of places outside of hard Rock, it's moved back

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Speaker 1: up to four and a half. So I feel, you know,

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Speaker 1: a little bit better than we're on the La Chargers

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Speaker 1: right now. But man, we totally could be stepping in

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Speaker 1: it because we're circumstantially betting the same scenario that we

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Speaker 1: bet two weeks ago when the Chargers were going across

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Speaker 1: the country and playing a team that is significantly worse

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Speaker 1: on the East Coast where they're short run favorites.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Once again, if you think back to that game,

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Speaker 2: think of all the things that had to go wrong

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Speaker 2: for you not to cover that number. So it's like,

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Speaker 2: from what I heard and look at this, it's probably

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Speaker 2: just the fact again it's too at home, so like

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Speaker 2: when you really dive into it too at home, it's

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Speaker 2: just different. And this is tends to be the spot

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Speaker 2: that professionals do back because he does win and play

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Speaker 2: really well at home. But I thought this was really

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Speaker 2: about the travel, and maybe because people are like, well,

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Speaker 2: the Charger are so banged up, and it is a

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Speaker 2: brutal travel, right going from LA to Florida. But you know,

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Speaker 2: diving at Herbert's numbers, he's actually done pretty well in

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Speaker 2: this exact spot. He's thirteen and six against it against

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Speaker 2: the spread in his career when he goes and plays

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Speaker 2: in East Coast games, so you know he tends to

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Speaker 2: not get frazzled in that way. And early in the year,

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Speaker 2: so September and October in his career when he goes East,

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Speaker 2: he's twelve and six against the spread, so he's done

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Speaker 2: well traveling. I will say this, there are always some

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Speaker 2: damning stabs about Herbert, and it's like, again, non ball

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Speaker 2: knowers will put him in their top five, which is

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Speaker 2: like the laziest take ever put in Herbert in your

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Speaker 2: top five quarterbacks when you dive into how bad he's

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Speaker 2: been in these one score games. It is alarming. This

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Speaker 2: is a one score game line, Like, that's what this

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Speaker 2: number is. So you know, the last three seasons, the

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Speaker 2: Chargers of the team one in ten when it's a

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Speaker 2: one score game. This year they're one on one, which

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Speaker 2: is good. But last year, so twenty twenty three and

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty four, Herbert was oh and nine Herbert oh

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Speaker 2: and nine straight up in one score games. That's as

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Speaker 2: a quarterback. That's a damn stat. That's you like, you

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Speaker 2: can try, people can put blame and always make up excuses,

288
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Speaker 2: but it like that just shows at the end of

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Speaker 2: these games. If he's not blowing these teams out, we're

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Speaker 2: dead on this bet. That's the fear chat. So I'm

291
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Speaker 2: still on it. I still like this spot. I think defensively,

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Speaker 2: this is a great bounce back spot for this Chargers

293
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Speaker 2: team matchup wise, and we said the worry for us

294
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Speaker 2: with the Chargers team is how they're going to handle

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Speaker 2: a team with a good pass rush. Miami doesn't have that,

296
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Speaker 2: and they don't have a good secondary either, which I

297
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Speaker 2: think we're We're able to pass the ball and even

298
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Speaker 2: without his running backs, something about to push the ball downfield.

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Speaker 2: So I'm with you like this because we're just so

300
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Speaker 2: uch dog betters and we always looking for opportunities to

301
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Speaker 2: be at home dogs. But this one, to me just

302
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Speaker 2: feels like a little of too much of adjustment by

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Speaker 2: the books. Still think this number would be five and

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Speaker 2: a half six. They've downgraded this team way too much,

305
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Speaker 2: in my opinion. Is so I do think it's a

306
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Speaker 2: nice bilo spot in the Chargers team. And like we said,

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Speaker 2: the fact that all this professional money is coming on

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Speaker 2: Miami and it looks like public money, like you're looking

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Speaker 2: at the splits at a lot different website. I don't know,

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Speaker 2: it makes me feel pretty good that we're on the

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Speaker 2: side that no one loves in this Chargers team, which

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Speaker 2: just going back just two weeks ago, they were the

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Speaker 2: best team in football. So I don't know, it's hard

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Speaker 2: for me to get out of this one check because

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Speaker 2: I just I like the number a lone. I love

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Speaker 2: this matchup for this Chargers team. They usually dominate beat

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Speaker 2: up on bad teams, and I just think that Giants

318
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Speaker 2: game was a one off, just so much bad luck,

319
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Speaker 2: and you saw last week once again a ton of

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Speaker 2: bad luck against Washington. Too much a reaction to them

321
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Speaker 2: getting blown out twenty seven to ten. Like we said,

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Speaker 2: that number is just not true. We both watched that

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Speaker 2: game from start to finish. That score does not indicate

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Speaker 2: what that game was.

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Speaker 1: Great matchup for the Chargers. The reasons why it's different

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Speaker 1: than going into New York against the desperate Giants team

327
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Speaker 1: is number one. Two, it doesn't scramble the way Jackson

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Speaker 1: Dart does and that was a huge factor in that game.

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Speaker 1: Number Two, the Dolphins have no choice but to play

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Speaker 1: zone in coverage. Justin Herbert eats up zone coverage. Number three.

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Speaker 1: Their secondary, in addition to having to play zone twenty

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Speaker 1: seventh and average depth of target allowed more than nine

333
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Speaker 1: yards per play and average depth of target twenty fifth

334
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Speaker 1: in yards per attempt allowed, their bottom five in just

335
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Speaker 1: about every coverage category. Meanwhile, Miami, we talked about the

336
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Speaker 1: Chargers O line and struggling against pass rush. The Dolphins'

337
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Speaker 1: defensive line is twenty eighth in pressure defense, total is

338
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Speaker 1: twenty eighth in pressure rate and bottom ten in total pressure.

339
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Speaker 1: So the things that have been challenging for the Chargers

340
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Speaker 1: are not necessarily if you look at the numbers. Challenges

341
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Speaker 1: in this game, different teams, different situation, if you're saying

342
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Speaker 1: he's zero to nine one score games. The other day

343
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Speaker 1: you brought up betting the aut lines on a couple

344
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Speaker 1: of games. Maybe we should just take a piece of

345
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Speaker 1: the outline on this and like see if we're going,

346
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Speaker 1: you know, Chargers minus eight and get it over one score.

347
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Speaker 2: It's more like, if this is if they're up fourteen

348
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Speaker 2: to fourth, I'll feel confident. If we're up ten in

349
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Speaker 2: the fourth, our bet is we're dead. We're dead dead.

350
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Speaker 2: So that that's like really what I was bringing up.

351
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Speaker 2: It's just like we, like you said, you gotta have

352
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Speaker 2: them roll. I don't. I love the all lines in

353
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Speaker 2: this I'm with you on it. So I'm on the

354
00:18:28,880 --> 00:18:31,359
Speaker 2: all lines in this game. But it's just we need,

355
00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:34,560
Speaker 2: we need the Chargers to roll, bounce back massively in

356
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Speaker 2: this game, because it's that's what I like. All the

357
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Speaker 2: pros telling me why they like Miami, they were just

358
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Speaker 2: like this has back door written all over and it's

359
00:18:41,119 --> 00:18:43,400
Speaker 2: like I looked at those numbers, I go, maybe they're right.

360
00:18:43,520 --> 00:18:47,360
Speaker 2: Maybe they're right about the Chargers not closing these teams out,

361
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Speaker 2: But historically just feels like the type of team the

362
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Speaker 2: Chargers absolutely.

363
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Speaker 1: Roll Seattle Jacksonville. Jacksonville is a one and a half

364
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Speaker 1: point favorite. You say the wise guys are on the Jacks.

365
00:18:56,520 --> 00:18:58,360
Speaker 1: I don't know that we'll make this into our contest,

366
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Speaker 1: but it was a hot topic on Tuesday, you know,

367
00:19:01,560 --> 00:19:06,200
Speaker 1: justin Julian Love, Devin Witherspoon, DeMarcus Lawrence all misspractice again

368
00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:10,000
Speaker 1: on Wednesday. I'm trying to figure out where the love

369
00:19:10,160 --> 00:19:14,640
Speaker 1: is for the Jags. Trevor Lawrence, we know is a liability.

370
00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:19,199
Speaker 1: This defense, as good as they've been enforcing turnovers, there

371
00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:22,480
Speaker 1: there's going to be some regression here. Sam Donold has

372
00:19:22,520 --> 00:19:27,640
Speaker 1: been amazing so far this season. This Seahawks defense can

373
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Speaker 1: be as good as the Jaguars defense. I don't love

374
00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:33,359
Speaker 1: betting the short number anyways. I'm just trying to figure

375
00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:37,240
Speaker 1: out where the love. Like, why there is so much

376
00:19:37,280 --> 00:19:39,520
Speaker 1: professional love for the Jacks. There shouldn't be that much

377
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Speaker 1: professional love. It should be it should be more of

378
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Speaker 1: a debate.

379
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say this Jacks team is healthier than

380
00:19:50,200 --> 00:19:54,680
Speaker 2: Seattle and that's all that's I mean, there are other

381
00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:56,840
Speaker 2: things too like this, This Jacks team probably still being

382
00:19:56,840 --> 00:20:00,359
Speaker 2: a little underrated the market. People are really love the

383
00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:04,480
Speaker 2: Seahawks team now because Sam Darnold had an incredible game

384
00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:06,919
Speaker 2: against that Bucks team last week, so I get the

385
00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:11,080
Speaker 2: confidence now. But you know, even the trends you look

386
00:20:11,119 --> 00:20:13,640
Speaker 2: at it the Seahawks. The reason I like the Bucks

387
00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:15,959
Speaker 2: so which last week is whatever it is McDonald as

388
00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:18,920
Speaker 2: a coach, he's bad at home, but on the road

389
00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:21,240
Speaker 2: they've been dominant when he's taken over his tenure there.

390
00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:22,800
Speaker 2: I think he's twelve and six against the spread on

391
00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:26,000
Speaker 2: the road in his young career and just shows he

392
00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:27,720
Speaker 2: gets his team up, he gets his defense up for

393
00:20:27,760 --> 00:20:30,880
Speaker 2: these matchups on the road, which is huge, huge deal.

394
00:20:31,040 --> 00:20:35,679
Speaker 2: And I'm not shocked. This is professional side, honestly, the

395
00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:39,280
Speaker 2: jack side, because the public will be looking at this

396
00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:41,080
Speaker 2: Seaxs team, Like I said, that was probably the best

397
00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:43,080
Speaker 2: game of the week last week. Like everyone watched that

398
00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:47,239
Speaker 2: Seahawks Bucks game, and they didn't think they lost that game, right,

399
00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:50,000
Speaker 2: They think the Bucks won it. They got Baker, so

400
00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:52,320
Speaker 2: they pretty much are crediting this team with a win.

401
00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:53,960
Speaker 2: On the flip side of the Jags, like we said,

402
00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:56,399
Speaker 2: we feel very lucky that we had that cover in

403
00:20:56,440 --> 00:20:59,480
Speaker 2: the win, knowing like you don't want to do it either.

404
00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:02,440
Speaker 2: No one wants put their money back on Trevor Lawrences experience.

405
00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:04,639
Speaker 2: So I think that's part of it where it's like

406
00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:07,239
Speaker 2: you're getting a unique situation where people just don't want

407
00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:10,919
Speaker 2: to bet this team. They're undervaluid even though they're healthy,

408
00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:12,880
Speaker 2: and you see it every week. As bad as Trevor

409
00:21:12,920 --> 00:21:16,840
Speaker 2: Lwrence has been, the defense has been getting better, and

410
00:21:17,320 --> 00:21:20,159
Speaker 2: that run game is a legit threat, Like the Jags

411
00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:22,639
Speaker 2: can run the ball, Like I couldn't believe that he

412
00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:25,720
Speaker 2: had success against Bags because my view of that whole

413
00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:27,360
Speaker 2: game with Stags is going to take away the run

414
00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:30,920
Speaker 2: and make Trevor beat them, and it almost worked right,

415
00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:33,359
Speaker 2: Like if they without that pick six, that's once again

416
00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:36,640
Speaker 2: a totally different game. So I'm with you, like I'm

417
00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:38,840
Speaker 2: scared to do it, but it's like I feel like

418
00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:41,200
Speaker 2: it's the right side. I'm trying not everthink it. Take

419
00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:45,080
Speaker 2: the Jags take the number. This Seahawks team, like we

420
00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:47,600
Speaker 2: loved early in the year. They'll get back to that

421
00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:50,160
Speaker 2: once they get right and get healthy. I just think

422
00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:53,080
Speaker 2: this is this is too much ask for a defense

423
00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:56,080
Speaker 2: is missing so many key pieces that you know they

424
00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:57,919
Speaker 2: still haven't hit that yet, Like the Jags have not

425
00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:01,159
Speaker 2: hit their stride det with Trevis Hunter and BTJ and

426
00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:05,320
Speaker 2: that you know, passing attack. So we'll see, like I

427
00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:07,520
Speaker 2: get it, like you, you don't want to do it,

428
00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:09,720
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna. I'm probably gonna force it in on Sunday.

429
00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:12,040
Speaker 2: I just think it's really funny when all the pros

430
00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:13,600
Speaker 2: like you have to bet this, and even though I'm like,

431
00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:16,280
Speaker 2: fucking I don't want to bet the Jags again, so

432
00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:18,800
Speaker 2: that I probably should be on it. But it's like

433
00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:21,760
Speaker 2: I'm with you. I feel like I survived something on Monday,

434
00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:22,920
Speaker 2: and I don't know if I want to go right

435
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:23,760
Speaker 2: back to it.

436
00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:26,040
Speaker 1: It's like we just got away with something we shouldn't.

437
00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:27,000
Speaker 1: You know, we shouldn't.

438
00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:29,240
Speaker 2: We shouldn't, but it's true.

439
00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:32,800
Speaker 1: Uh, Cleveland at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh is now five and a half.

440
00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:34,879
Speaker 1: We talked about it the other day. You called it

441
00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:38,120
Speaker 1: you're lazy as bet of the week. Listen if you were,

442
00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:41,280
Speaker 1: if folks were listening on Tuesday and paying attention, you

443
00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:44,280
Speaker 1: could have had the Steelers of minus four. So it's

444
00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:46,040
Speaker 1: moved up a point and a half. I mean five

445
00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:48,439
Speaker 1: to five, five to six is still pretty much a

446
00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:53,199
Speaker 1: dead number. I wouldn't tell people you'd be crazy to

447
00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:55,119
Speaker 1: bet it. At five and a half. But if one

448
00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:57,840
Speaker 1: of the philosophies of betting is you got to get

449
00:22:57,840 --> 00:23:00,159
Speaker 1: the best of the number, you're not getting them. That's

450
00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:03,680
Speaker 1: the number since this thing was at four on Tuesday.

451
00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:06,560
Speaker 1: I like it for the spot. I like it because

452
00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:08,680
Speaker 1: the Browns are coming back from the UK, a rookie

453
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:12,840
Speaker 1: playing in his first road game. It's a difficult place

454
00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:16,160
Speaker 1: to play. You've got Alex high Smith coming back, You've

455
00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:20,400
Speaker 1: got Cam Hayward, TJ. Watt already there. Alex Heigsmith being

456
00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:23,639
Speaker 1: healthy to me is a game changer. Plus Joey Porter

457
00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:29,359
Speaker 1: Junior like this Steelers team is rested, and the greatest

458
00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:34,160
Speaker 1: advantage the Browns have is their defensive line and their

459
00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:39,359
Speaker 1: pass rush. Aaron Rodgers is getting the ball, getting rid

460
00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:43,200
Speaker 1: of the ball two point five to two seconds fastest

461
00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:45,439
Speaker 1: in the NFL. So if there's one thing that can

462
00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:49,560
Speaker 1: mitigate a powerful pass rush from your defensive line, it's

463
00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:51,440
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers, who knows how to get rid of the

464
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:54,320
Speaker 1: ball quickly, and as you noted, takes a dive. So

465
00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:58,080
Speaker 1: I'm more and more comfortable with the Steelers here.

466
00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:01,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I was trying to find anything I can

467
00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:03,840
Speaker 2: that gave me more confidences to this thing because everything

468
00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:05,479
Speaker 2: we said is true. I feel like on the field

469
00:24:05,680 --> 00:24:08,239
Speaker 2: and I really wanted to dive into the trends here

470
00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:10,040
Speaker 2: and like shout out to our guy Evan Abrams just

471
00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:12,199
Speaker 2: he had the exec tren that I was looking for,

472
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:15,119
Speaker 2: which is I feel like this is a Tomlin spot

473
00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:17,320
Speaker 2: that we historically bet. And that's why I was like,

474
00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:20,720
Speaker 2: is this just being lazy? But it's an early bye

475
00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:24,080
Speaker 2: week for a coach that we see just he doesn't

476
00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:26,199
Speaker 2: have that bye week letdown, Like that's the real thing

477
00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:28,840
Speaker 2: of football. Guys just aren't up for that game after

478
00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:31,320
Speaker 2: the bye week. Again, I was grasping at straws. I

479
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:32,600
Speaker 2: was like, I don't even know if this is real.

480
00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:34,280
Speaker 2: I need to find some numbers that back it up.

481
00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:37,400
Speaker 2: And it is real. So when he has a bye week,

482
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:42,280
Speaker 2: Basically he's won and covered five straight Tomlin since twenty twenty.

483
00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:43,879
Speaker 2: You could say that's not that big of deal, but

484
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:46,080
Speaker 2: to me, it is. He's eight to zero since twenty

485
00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:49,359
Speaker 2: seventeen sixty two against the spread. That's that's a big

486
00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:50,960
Speaker 2: deal to me, Like this is a guy that gets

487
00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:53,040
Speaker 2: his team up ready for these type of matchups, let

488
00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:55,199
Speaker 2: alone they're about to play a rookie quarterback coming off

489
00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:58,680
Speaker 2: an international game, right y'all game to day, you ain't

490
00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:00,880
Speaker 2: new to this no more. Now you know what I mean,

491
00:25:01,320 --> 00:25:03,600
Speaker 2: dominate this football game, and you can go even more

492
00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:06,000
Speaker 2: into it. It's like, Okay, how's he do early in

493
00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:08,240
Speaker 2: the year because that again, this is a very early

494
00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:10,960
Speaker 2: bye week. So when I have an early bye week

495
00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:14,280
Speaker 2: under Tomlin in his career, he's nine and one straight up,

496
00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:17,920
Speaker 2: seven to three against the spread. So when it's within

497
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:20,720
Speaker 2: the first eight games of the year he is on one,

498
00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:22,760
Speaker 2: rate goes up even more. He's nine to one. So

499
00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:26,640
Speaker 2: a lot of that stuff I really like. I already

500
00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:28,760
Speaker 2: liked it when I saw those type of trends. It's like, okay,

501
00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:30,680
Speaker 2: now this is an It was already gonna be in

502
00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:32,960
Speaker 2: our money line run robin for favorites. Now it's a

503
00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:36,280
Speaker 2: no brainer smash spot for Tomlin. Like this is a

504
00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:39,640
Speaker 2: Tomlin spot after a bye week, And like Chad said,

505
00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:42,479
Speaker 2: I just tint to go so lazy because it's like,

506
00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:45,080
Speaker 2: who's betting Cleveland's side? And I could not believe it

507
00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:48,680
Speaker 2: had gotten down before. And you know, we try to

508
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:50,479
Speaker 2: make sense of it. What are these pros doing? And

509
00:25:50,680 --> 00:25:52,359
Speaker 2: I always talk about you have to be wary of

510
00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:54,840
Speaker 2: the professional headfake where they'll bet a line to get

511
00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:56,720
Speaker 2: to a number day one and they'll load up on

512
00:25:56,760 --> 00:25:58,960
Speaker 2: that side. And that's what I feel like. Chad's talking

513
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:01,160
Speaker 2: about what happened. Like a lot of fours were popped

514
00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:04,600
Speaker 2: up across the books all jumped up to five five

515
00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:06,439
Speaker 2: and a half after a lot of money came in.

516
00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:09,400
Speaker 2: So I still like it at five and a half.

517
00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:12,199
Speaker 2: I still think it's a fair number under six. I

518
00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:15,760
Speaker 2: just again, their running attack is so good at Cleveland.

519
00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:17,959
Speaker 2: That might be my only fear like because you can

520
00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:20,639
Speaker 2: run the ball against this Pittsburgh team. But I have

521
00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:22,960
Speaker 2: to trust Tomlin to make adjustments during this bio week

522
00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:24,879
Speaker 2: and then they getting these guys back healthy. It's like,

523
00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:28,240
Speaker 2: what is Tomlin do in this by week? Yes, to

524
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:31,480
Speaker 2: attack their biggest weakness, which is the run. Anyone has

525
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:33,840
Speaker 2: these numbers, they can see they've been awful. I guess

526
00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:36,160
Speaker 2: they run through the first four weeks. So yeah, Ched,

527
00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:38,640
Speaker 2: I'm really happy to see he's done so well after

528
00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:40,720
Speaker 2: these bio weeks, and the trends back up our love

529
00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:43,600
Speaker 2: for this Pittsburgh side because I'm not gonna lie. There's

530
00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:45,480
Speaker 2: a couple of games this week, Like we keep talking

531
00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:48,200
Speaker 2: with these favorites, like the Chargers. That's like these lines

532
00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:51,400
Speaker 2: just feel off and they're priced wrong because last week

533
00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:54,360
Speaker 2: the Dogs had their week, right, what were they nine

534
00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:56,800
Speaker 2: to five? Yeah? Yeah, I get straight up something crazy

535
00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:59,520
Speaker 2: like that. So there's a couple of lines that pop

536
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:01,000
Speaker 2: like this, right, I can't believe I'm on a talk

537
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:03,240
Speaker 2: favorite like this once again. But it's like it's just

538
00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 2: an undervalued lion. It's still to me undervaluided. Probably should

539
00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:07,879
Speaker 2: be six, six and a half. I don't think a

540
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:09,680
Speaker 2: five and a half is a trial number if you didn't.

541
00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:14,359
Speaker 1: Miss the four Simon, this is us growing, this is

542
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:18,359
Speaker 1: us for this week evolving in the marketplace. We're not

543
00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:23,120
Speaker 1: just going to blindly bet underdogs with good defenses. We're

544
00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:25,320
Speaker 1: going to take a look at favorites every once in

545
00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:28,840
Speaker 1: a while because that's what the market dictates. You can't

546
00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:31,880
Speaker 1: just bet whatever you used to bet. This This thing

547
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:38,120
Speaker 1: is changing dramatically before our eyes. All right, Pittsburgh Steelers,

548
00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:43,280
Speaker 1: the game that cause the biggest riff you and I

549
00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:47,480
Speaker 1: have ever had the history of the podcast. The New

550
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:52,040
Speaker 1: England Patriots three point favorites at the New Orleans Saints.

551
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:57,080
Speaker 1: This was your Simon says. When I disagreed and pushed back,

552
00:27:57,119 --> 00:27:59,760
Speaker 1: you got very mad. But I do realize that I

553
00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:03,919
Speaker 1: listen back. We did this right after revisiting the Cardinals

554
00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:09,399
Speaker 1: debacle from Sunday, and then we played your rant about

555
00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:11,560
Speaker 1: the Cardinals from Sunday, So I think you might have

556
00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:12,120
Speaker 1: been triggered.

557
00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:17,600
Speaker 2: Kyler Murray's a loser. Gannon's a loser. That's a loser. Organization.

558
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:21,600
Speaker 2: Fold don't exist anymore tomorrow. I hope I wake up

559
00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:24,680
Speaker 2: tomorrow and they said, yep, thirty one teams NFL Arizona

560
00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:28,159
Speaker 2: literally folded overnight. Good let it be done.

561
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:33,000
Speaker 1: At hard Rock. The line has shifted. The Saints are

562
00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:36,480
Speaker 1: a flat three a lot of other places, that's still

563
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:39,920
Speaker 1: three and a half. Clearly the wise guys, as you

564
00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:43,000
Speaker 1: noted in sharp calls, are on the Saints. Here. I'm

565
00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:46,600
Speaker 1: a little more trepidacious. Like everyone keeps saying the Saints

566
00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:49,959
Speaker 1: are better. I think people are undervaluing the impact of

567
00:28:50,200 --> 00:28:54,840
Speaker 1: Christian Gonzales on the return for the Patriots. I get

568
00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:56,959
Speaker 1: it's like it's not going to be a good side.

569
00:28:57,440 --> 00:28:59,640
Speaker 1: It's inflated against the Patriots because of what they did

570
00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:03,680
Speaker 1: against the bills. Everyone's talking about Drake Mays MVP, basically

571
00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:06,080
Speaker 1: because there's no one left to talk about, right Like,

572
00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:08,080
Speaker 1: you can't talk about Patrick Mahomes, you can't talk about

573
00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:11,040
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson, you can't talk about Josh Allen. This week, Hey,

574
00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:15,840
Speaker 1: let's talk about Drake May and So I totally totally

575
00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:18,280
Speaker 1: get it. I just don't know about these Saints.

576
00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:21,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I left the record show. I wasn't mad, I

577
00:29:21,520 --> 00:29:24,080
Speaker 2: was annoyed. Listen, we're humans. We all have many flaws.

578
00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:26,240
Speaker 2: I have many flaws, and I am a crazy person.

579
00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:29,920
Speaker 2: Chad has many blind spots, and that's that's all. We

580
00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:33,120
Speaker 2: all have blind spots. So peek behind the curtain. Chad

581
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:36,560
Speaker 2: asked me for my favorite bet this week before the show. Again,

582
00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:39,280
Speaker 2: we're not live, this is only me and Chad. I

583
00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:42,560
Speaker 2: tell him I'm on the Saints. Chad could have just

584
00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:46,640
Speaker 2: simply said, oh, I like the Patriots. Chats go in

585
00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:49,840
Speaker 2: a minute rant about why the features are the right side,

586
00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:52,120
Speaker 2: how he makes the number five or five and a half,

587
00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:54,600
Speaker 2: and I'm just like this guy. As soon as you

588
00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:58,440
Speaker 2: get on the air, I'm going to bear you. Steve,

589
00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:00,880
Speaker 2: you can't read the room. I'm a guy. He thinks

590
00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:03,400
Speaker 2: it's there. The other thing, dude, I'm a dire Phillies fan.

591
00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:06,640
Speaker 2: I'm staring at zero and two and I forgot that,

592
00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:09,760
Speaker 2: And I'm just like, does this guy really doing this

593
00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:12,640
Speaker 2: before the show? Because again, if it's on air, check

594
00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:14,520
Speaker 2: and talk for five minutes about the Patriots. I don't care.

595
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:17,040
Speaker 2: That's for you people. He's given me his own private

596
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:19,200
Speaker 2: show of something I do not want to hear after

597
00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:24,160
Speaker 2: being up doing fourteen games. So that's why I was

598
00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:26,280
Speaker 2: just like annoyed. I don't know if I was mad.

599
00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:28,960
Speaker 2: I was more annoyed, but yeah, I'm still in the

600
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:30,680
Speaker 2: Saints and it like my view of it was to

601
00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:32,960
Speaker 2: get the number before it moved, because I was just like, Okay,

602
00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:35,720
Speaker 2: the public will be on the Patriots here. Will the

603
00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:38,040
Speaker 2: pros join me on the Saint side? Will they bet

604
00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:40,600
Speaker 2: this down to three? I feel like our Rocks only

605
00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:42,160
Speaker 2: won that move, Like if you want the three and

606
00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:44,960
Speaker 2: a half, there are so many out there, and yeah,

607
00:30:45,040 --> 00:30:47,280
Speaker 2: I think I'll get back there. Like I I talked

608
00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:49,960
Speaker 2: to prose who are on the Patriots side, and yeah,

609
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:53,200
Speaker 2: Christian Zalaz is a big deal. I don't think they

610
00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 2: realized that this Saints team is still better than people perceive.

611
00:30:57,480 --> 00:31:01,040
Speaker 2: And you know, even the numbers set, this team's actually

612
00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:03,480
Speaker 2: not as bad. Like defensively, I was shocked because that's

613
00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:06,280
Speaker 2: what I want to look into. It's like, Okay, their defense. Yeah,

614
00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:08,520
Speaker 2: they've had a soft schedule in some aspects, but they've

615
00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:12,240
Speaker 2: actually played well. Like that that Bill's game, they didn't

616
00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:14,600
Speaker 2: just lay down and die like they stopped the run.

617
00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:16,320
Speaker 2: I feel like they were pretty solid in that game.

618
00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:19,560
Speaker 2: And you look at it, their ninth and EPA a

619
00:31:19,640 --> 00:31:22,440
Speaker 2: game against their run. So they're holding you know, in

620
00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:23,880
Speaker 2: four out of the five games they played this year,

621
00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:26,320
Speaker 2: they've held the number one running back to under seventy yards. Okay,

622
00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:29,720
Speaker 2: that's that's something to improven on, right Their their run

623
00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:32,440
Speaker 2: defense is actually getting stops. That's something I can hang

624
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:35,720
Speaker 2: my head on. The Spencer Rattler part, though, is the

625
00:31:35,760 --> 00:31:37,320
Speaker 2: part I can't get over. I can't get over how

626
00:31:37,320 --> 00:31:40,280
Speaker 2: good this kid's playing for someone that I totally viewed

627
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:42,320
Speaker 2: as a joke. I was like, they're making the quarterbacks

628
00:31:42,320 --> 00:31:44,400
Speaker 2: so they can tank and get a quarterback this season,

629
00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:47,920
Speaker 2: and you look at the numbers and it's it's good.

630
00:31:48,240 --> 00:31:51,440
Speaker 2: And like even when Christian Zalas takes out the number

631
00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:53,680
Speaker 2: one of a team that is a big deal, but

632
00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 2: they haven't really like Alive, who we all respect. He

633
00:31:56,480 --> 00:31:59,600
Speaker 2: was incredible at how to state he's he is their

634
00:31:59,680 --> 00:32:02,200
Speaker 2: number one, but he's not their focal point of their offense.

635
00:32:02,240 --> 00:32:04,120
Speaker 2: He's not a guy at four speed in a lot

636
00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:07,360
Speaker 2: of ways. And you look at Spencer rallery numbers. So

637
00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:10,720
Speaker 2: he has six touchdowns and one interception this season. So

638
00:32:11,480 --> 00:32:15,760
Speaker 2: in the Saints' history, this is crazy. They've never had

639
00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:18,480
Speaker 2: a quarterback or they've had two quarterbacks through five games

640
00:32:18,520 --> 00:32:20,880
Speaker 2: throw for six touchdowns, one interception and throw for over

641
00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:24,880
Speaker 2: seventy percent. That was Drew Brees in twenty eighteen. So

642
00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:26,880
Speaker 2: Spencer Ratler, Drew.

643
00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:28,960
Speaker 1: Brees and Spencer Rattler and yeah.

644
00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:32,000
Speaker 2: Twenty twenty five. So those are the two quarterbacks on

645
00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:34,200
Speaker 2: that list in Saint's history that have probably that well

646
00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:36,560
Speaker 2: to start a year. So it's like I got to

647
00:32:36,560 --> 00:32:39,800
Speaker 2: give him his roses. Kellen Moore, which, like again I

648
00:32:39,840 --> 00:32:41,480
Speaker 2: didn't think it was a huge loss for the Eagles

649
00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:44,480
Speaker 2: for him to leave. He obviously is a pretty gifted

650
00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:46,920
Speaker 2: coach if he's turning that out with Spencer Ratler and

651
00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:49,200
Speaker 2: the team they have, Like I just I looked at

652
00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:50,800
Speaker 2: those numbers, I couldn't believe it, like the fact that

653
00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:53,400
Speaker 2: he's being smart with the ball in his hand like that,

654
00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:56,920
Speaker 2: because him being six touchdowns and one pick, I agree

655
00:32:56,960 --> 00:32:59,520
Speaker 2: with people that's not jumping out of like that's not amazing.

656
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:02,160
Speaker 2: That's not a roll Bowl numbers. But he's playing within

657
00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:04,360
Speaker 2: the offense and he's not the reason this team is losing,

658
00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:06,000
Speaker 2: like they have losses on the shaw and you can't

659
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:08,920
Speaker 2: point to him, like, sure there's been times he misthrows,

660
00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:12,040
Speaker 2: but it's like, once again, expectations for this team. So

661
00:33:12,720 --> 00:33:15,600
Speaker 2: I still think the general public doesn't realize this defense

662
00:33:15,680 --> 00:33:17,440
Speaker 2: is actually all right for the Saints, and Spencer Rally's

663
00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:20,480
Speaker 2: playing at a same high level that Drake May's playing

664
00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:24,440
Speaker 2: right now. And my only pause here is when you

665
00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:28,440
Speaker 2: dive into the numbers, this is once again another verbel spot.

666
00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:32,560
Speaker 2: Rabel does very well against bad teams, let alone teams

667
00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:35,520
Speaker 2: with first or second year head coaches. So there are

668
00:33:35,680 --> 00:33:38,160
Speaker 2: trends that are like I know pros who bet trends,

669
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:40,600
Speaker 2: and that's there are trends they like that face to

670
00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:43,000
Speaker 2: this Patriots team. So I just want people know this

671
00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:44,960
Speaker 2: isn't all professional. I thought this was going to be

672
00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:47,920
Speaker 2: all pro on this same side. There are some that

673
00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:51,480
Speaker 2: are back in Rabel in this spot. But like I

674
00:33:51,520 --> 00:33:53,440
Speaker 2: told him, I'll tell you, if you like the Patriots,

675
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:56,120
Speaker 2: you can get minus three right now. That's that's a

676
00:33:56,160 --> 00:33:58,800
Speaker 2: Patriots number right there. To me, the Saints number, though,

677
00:33:58,800 --> 00:34:01,360
Speaker 2: which is every book most likely in your state, is

678
00:34:01,800 --> 00:34:03,680
Speaker 2: three and a half. That to me is the confidence

679
00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:06,959
Speaker 2: smart side the Patriots can win, they can cover this number.

680
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:10,799
Speaker 2: That's like a thirty thirty five percent chance. Like you're

681
00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:14,440
Speaker 2: betting into a really bad spot side at a bad number,

682
00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:18,279
Speaker 2: this Saints team. I could be over my skis here

683
00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:20,160
Speaker 2: back in the two weeks in a row. But it's

684
00:34:20,200 --> 00:34:22,560
Speaker 2: just about the number. Just like last week, I thought

685
00:34:22,600 --> 00:34:25,239
Speaker 2: that numbers should have been closer to three. It wasn't right.

686
00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:26,720
Speaker 2: I mean, I think it peaked at two and a half.

687
00:34:27,040 --> 00:34:28,799
Speaker 2: Same thing here. I think this number should be close

688
00:34:28,880 --> 00:34:31,160
Speaker 2: to a pick. You're getting a hook on three and

689
00:34:31,200 --> 00:34:33,480
Speaker 2: a half. I'm never gonna avoid this one. I like

690
00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:35,200
Speaker 2: the Saints cheat. I like this matchup for the team

691
00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:35,880
Speaker 2: and their defense.

692
00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:41,680
Speaker 1: I always forget how emotionally invested you are in the

693
00:34:41,680 --> 00:34:42,800
Speaker 1: Philadelphia Phillies.

694
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:47,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I love them, man. Like again, I'm it's Eagle season,

695
00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:49,440
Speaker 2: but I'm still it's still in my mind Philly season.

696
00:34:49,520 --> 00:34:51,800
Speaker 2: Like if the Eagles were two and three, yeah it

697
00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:53,839
Speaker 2: would suck, but it's like they're season to start till

698
00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:57,080
Speaker 2: December anyway. This is yeah going down oh two at

699
00:34:57,120 --> 00:34:59,880
Speaker 2: home chat, I was I was hurting. I was hurting Tuesday.

700
00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:04,680
Speaker 2: Not gonna lie. Thank God for last night, Schward man,

701
00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:05,239
Speaker 2: I needed it.

702
00:35:05,320 --> 00:35:07,280
Speaker 1: Starters have been a major story.

703
00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:12,080
Speaker 2: Oh Schwarver, gonna send one way out of here? How

704
00:35:12,280 --> 00:35:17,360
Speaker 2: far will it fly? My goodness, Kyle Schwarver with a

705
00:35:17,640 --> 00:35:21,080
Speaker 2: tape measure shot that is one of the biggest bombs

706
00:35:21,120 --> 00:35:22,280
Speaker 2: you will ever see.

707
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:28,319
Speaker 1: He was a season saver last night. Yeah, we'll see

708
00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:32,000
Speaker 1: what happens today. But yeah, all right, so clearly you

709
00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:34,560
Speaker 1: love the Saints. Here. Part of me just wants to

710
00:35:34,600 --> 00:35:38,600
Speaker 1: bet the Patriots at minus three and then and then

711
00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:41,720
Speaker 1: put him in the contest and just see what happens

712
00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:42,879
Speaker 1: and let it roll.

713
00:35:43,480 --> 00:35:45,080
Speaker 2: Put the Patriots in and minus three.

714
00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:48,719
Speaker 1: No, put the Saints in. Oh, oh, I will I'd

715
00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:54,279
Speaker 1: be willing. I'd be willing to sacrifice the bet and

716
00:35:54,440 --> 00:35:58,439
Speaker 1: put the Saints in just to see how this whole

717
00:35:58,440 --> 00:36:02,960
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752
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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, and Virginia, Tennessee. At the Las

753
00:38:03,520 --> 00:38:07,840
Speaker 1: Vegas Raiders, All right, look, I made a chat choice

754
00:38:07,920 --> 00:38:13,279
Speaker 1: on Tuesday. It's down half a point since I made it.

755
00:38:13,760 --> 00:38:18,320
Speaker 1: Chat choice brock Bauers did not practic yesterday. Not great,

756
00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:22,360
Speaker 1: not great, Jim, But this should be about the Raiders.

757
00:38:23,080 --> 00:38:27,600
Speaker 1: Letting Ashtrion Genty repeat the performance he had against the Bears. Right,

758
00:38:27,920 --> 00:38:30,759
Speaker 1: the Titans are thirty first in run DVA twenty eighth

759
00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:33,760
Speaker 1: and EPA per rush twenty ninth in success rate against

760
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:38,680
Speaker 1: the rush. Like Chip Kelly, don't get freaking cute, man,

761
00:38:39,160 --> 00:38:42,480
Speaker 1: don't put the ball in Gino's hands, don't try to

762
00:38:42,520 --> 00:38:45,839
Speaker 1: do anything special. Just give it to Genty, let him

763
00:38:45,840 --> 00:38:48,320
Speaker 1: score his touchdowns, let him beat up on a Titans

764
00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:51,560
Speaker 1: team that really should not be even on the same

765
00:38:51,680 --> 00:38:55,480
Speaker 1: field as any NFL team. I know I'm exaggerating because

766
00:38:55,520 --> 00:38:58,799
Speaker 1: it's the Raiders, and really the Raiders are trash, but

767
00:38:58,840 --> 00:39:01,600
Speaker 1: they do have offensive weapons and if they can just

768
00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:04,080
Speaker 1: put them in the right hands, they should be able

769
00:39:04,080 --> 00:39:07,280
Speaker 1: to win this game and win this game by margin.

770
00:39:07,920 --> 00:39:10,839
Speaker 1: So I'm still in the Raiders.

771
00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:12,800
Speaker 2: Still in Raiders, and the professionals are coming on in

772
00:39:12,880 --> 00:39:17,160
Speaker 2: Tennessee's like again, what is that about? They don't always win,

773
00:39:17,200 --> 00:39:19,560
Speaker 2: So I'm happy to join Chad and shop around. You

774
00:39:19,600 --> 00:39:21,480
Speaker 2: can find minus three and a half. And I don't

775
00:39:21,480 --> 00:39:24,960
Speaker 2: care for the Socckers here I saw the best laziest

776
00:39:24,960 --> 00:39:28,480
Speaker 2: stat of the week, which was there's been three rookie

777
00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:32,640
Speaker 2: qbs come back down seventeen points in NFL history. They

778
00:39:32,719 --> 00:39:35,480
Speaker 2: all lost the final game by like twenty points.

779
00:39:35,960 --> 00:39:39,160
Speaker 1: So yeah, you know why they're playing for bad teams.

780
00:39:39,520 --> 00:39:43,000
Speaker 1: And like this Titans team, what is this line, Honest

781
00:39:43,000 --> 00:39:46,680
Speaker 1: to god, what is this line if the if the

782
00:39:46,680 --> 00:39:50,719
Speaker 1: Titans lose that game twenty eight to six against.

783
00:39:50,440 --> 00:39:52,440
Speaker 2: The car the Rangers so bad. I don't think across

784
00:39:52,480 --> 00:39:53,960
Speaker 2: the six. I think a peak would get up to

785
00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:55,759
Speaker 2: minus six, right, But.

786
00:39:55,760 --> 00:39:58,880
Speaker 1: So then to me, we're still getting two points of value.

787
00:40:00,120 --> 00:40:02,640
Speaker 2: But to me, that's just a glaring statuo of just

788
00:40:02,680 --> 00:40:06,840
Speaker 2: how these young quarterbacks they can have that moment, that

789
00:40:06,880 --> 00:40:09,040
Speaker 2: come back thing. But Chad just nailed it. They're on

790
00:40:09,160 --> 00:40:12,960
Speaker 2: really bad teams and that most usually don't know how

791
00:40:12,960 --> 00:40:16,000
Speaker 2: to handle winning. So like you have this insanely high

792
00:40:16,080 --> 00:40:20,600
Speaker 2: emotional win on the road, you fly home, vibes are

793
00:40:20,600 --> 00:40:22,600
Speaker 2: the highest of high. Now you're flying again to Vegas

794
00:40:22,640 --> 00:40:25,360
Speaker 2: to go play this matchup against a Raiders team that

795
00:40:25,520 --> 00:40:30,000
Speaker 2: is veteran across the board and insanely desperate. Like Pete Carroll,

796
00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:31,279
Speaker 2: if he gets fired, he might be end up being

797
00:40:31,320 --> 00:40:33,200
Speaker 2: our next president. What is he seventy five? He's right

798
00:40:33,320 --> 00:40:37,600
Speaker 2: around the perfect age. So it's it's it's scary like

799
00:40:37,600 --> 00:40:39,920
Speaker 2: we're both in the same boat of like holding our

800
00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:42,440
Speaker 2: nose taking this side, and we know exactly what we're

801
00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:44,960
Speaker 2: doing here with this Raiders team that the only thing

802
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:48,080
Speaker 2: I could burns is Gino because Jeni, he should rush

803
00:40:48,160 --> 00:40:50,960
Speaker 2: for one fifty year like you just avoid Simmons in

804
00:40:51,000 --> 00:40:53,800
Speaker 2: the middle. You can run for whatever you want against

805
00:40:53,840 --> 00:40:56,360
Speaker 2: this team, and you look on the flip side, like

806
00:40:56,360 --> 00:40:58,640
Speaker 2: we talked the same reason we loved the Raiders are

807
00:40:58,640 --> 00:41:03,920
Speaker 2: against the Bears, Max Crosby against bad old lines when

808
00:41:03,920 --> 00:41:05,879
Speaker 2: he can pick the guy he can go against. Oh

809
00:41:05,920 --> 00:41:08,440
Speaker 2: my god, right, it's like it's not even fair, and

810
00:41:08,480 --> 00:41:11,320
Speaker 2: I love to you see. You know all these teams

811
00:41:11,360 --> 00:41:12,919
Speaker 2: reaching out to try to get him off the Raiders.

812
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:15,120
Speaker 2: If the Raiders were a smart organization, you should move

813
00:41:15,200 --> 00:41:17,760
Speaker 2: him on. You should let this reward, this man who's

814
00:41:17,800 --> 00:41:20,799
Speaker 2: so great, get three first whatever you can get from him,

815
00:41:20,760 --> 00:41:22,440
Speaker 2: and let him move on to go win a championship,

816
00:41:22,440 --> 00:41:24,600
Speaker 2: because it is you watch him every Sunday. He's just

817
00:41:24,640 --> 00:41:26,760
Speaker 2: the best, and it's such a waste here over the Raiders.

818
00:41:26,800 --> 00:41:28,960
Speaker 2: But we still got him here and we still have

819
00:41:29,040 --> 00:41:31,640
Speaker 2: a great match with him, So I know, Chaed, I

820
00:41:31,680 --> 00:41:33,839
Speaker 2: can't believe the amount of professional money that have moved

821
00:41:33,840 --> 00:41:36,680
Speaker 2: this number down, especially that you know we got four

822
00:41:36,719 --> 00:41:38,160
Speaker 2: here at hard Rock the Minas three and a half.

823
00:41:38,200 --> 00:41:39,080
Speaker 2: It's just egregious to me.

824
00:41:39,239 --> 00:41:39,960
Speaker 1: It's stupid.

825
00:41:40,200 --> 00:41:42,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, shop around, get that number if you can. I

826
00:41:42,320 --> 00:41:46,520
Speaker 2: just I can't believe people and professionals alike are overacting

827
00:41:46,560 --> 00:41:49,520
Speaker 2: this much to a Tennessee win, which they view is

828
00:41:49,560 --> 00:41:52,440
Speaker 2: something that can kind of spark this team. Historical data

829
00:41:52,480 --> 00:41:55,239
Speaker 2: shows this is not that moment. This is usually when

830
00:41:55,280 --> 00:41:56,839
Speaker 2: they fall off a cliff the following game.

831
00:41:57,000 --> 00:42:00,279
Speaker 1: Also, historical data tells you that when you're betting a

832
00:42:00,400 --> 00:42:03,680
Speaker 1: home team after a blowout, there's also going to be

833
00:42:03,719 --> 00:42:06,120
Speaker 1: deflation in the line, and that's when you want to

834
00:42:06,120 --> 00:42:08,520
Speaker 1: bet on that team. So, like if we talk about

835
00:42:08,520 --> 00:42:11,400
Speaker 1: by low and sell high, like this is when you

836
00:42:11,480 --> 00:42:13,680
Speaker 1: sell the Titans, and this is when you buy the Raiders.

837
00:42:14,719 --> 00:42:16,080
Speaker 2: You hope on the Raiders part, we don't know if

838
00:42:16,120 --> 00:42:18,520
Speaker 2: this is rock bottom yet because we.

839
00:42:18,520 --> 00:42:22,080
Speaker 1: Assume we assume Caleb Williams called Max Crosby the best

840
00:42:22,080 --> 00:42:23,880
Speaker 1: football player he's ever played against.

841
00:42:24,200 --> 00:42:28,200
Speaker 2: That's fairy. I'll tell you that, all right, H'donald So

842
00:42:28,239 --> 00:42:28,680
Speaker 2: I get it?

843
00:42:28,920 --> 00:42:31,799
Speaker 1: Yeah right? San Francisco at Tampa Bay Tampa Bay minus three.

844
00:42:31,840 --> 00:42:33,440
Speaker 1: We talked about this and sheriff calls. I want to

845
00:42:33,440 --> 00:42:37,440
Speaker 1: spend a minute on it because like Brock Purdy, Juwan Jennings,

846
00:42:37,520 --> 00:42:41,320
Speaker 1: Ricky Piersoll, again, none of them practiced on Wednesday. Also,

847
00:42:41,920 --> 00:42:44,600
Speaker 1: even scarier Mac Jones was limited.

848
00:42:44,840 --> 00:42:46,880
Speaker 2: So like, what is happening?

849
00:42:47,719 --> 00:42:50,839
Speaker 1: Why is the entire wise guy community forget about coming

850
00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:55,520
Speaker 1: in on tennessee? Why the Niners? What is happening here?

851
00:42:55,560 --> 00:43:01,319
Speaker 1: To me, this is solely about fade the box and

852
00:43:01,480 --> 00:43:05,520
Speaker 1: just thinking they can't continue to win every game by

853
00:43:05,560 --> 00:43:09,200
Speaker 1: a field goal in the final seconds, literally the final seconds.

854
00:43:09,239 --> 00:43:12,239
Speaker 1: I agree that that's the only reason. And maybe there's

855
00:43:12,239 --> 00:43:14,560
Speaker 1: some other injuries for the Bucks in the defensive backfield,

856
00:43:14,560 --> 00:43:19,480
Speaker 1: But if mac Jones, who's already limited physically, is now

857
00:43:19,520 --> 00:43:24,560
Speaker 1: limited because of injuries and he's your quarterback, I don't know, man, Like,

858
00:43:25,160 --> 00:43:27,319
Speaker 1: what what are people seeing here?

859
00:43:28,239 --> 00:43:30,279
Speaker 2: Bizarre? And I was so excited too. I was like,

860
00:43:30,320 --> 00:43:31,560
Speaker 2: oh my god, they're gonna give us two and a

861
00:43:31,600 --> 00:43:34,160
Speaker 2: half in our contest and we can We'll get the

862
00:43:34,200 --> 00:43:37,880
Speaker 2: Bucks here, they'll announce parties out and Max playing and

863
00:43:37,920 --> 00:43:39,400
Speaker 2: maybe this line will run up to four four and

864
00:43:39,440 --> 00:43:41,520
Speaker 2: a half. We have an amazing number. It's three and

865
00:43:41,560 --> 00:43:43,440
Speaker 2: a half. So it's like I'm no forging having our

866
00:43:43,480 --> 00:43:46,440
Speaker 2: contest either, which sucks. Yeah, which could be good for

867
00:43:46,440 --> 00:43:48,399
Speaker 2: me though, because I probably should avoid this Bucks team

868
00:43:48,400 --> 00:43:51,440
Speaker 2: because there's something I'm not seeing here. I mean, I

869
00:43:51,680 --> 00:43:54,279
Speaker 2: have a total blind spot, and I think what you

870
00:43:54,400 --> 00:43:57,279
Speaker 2: said is part of it where it's like Baker's hit

871
00:43:57,320 --> 00:44:00,640
Speaker 2: on black now nine straight times, and he's gonna go

872
00:44:00,680 --> 00:44:03,439
Speaker 2: hit it again. Like I loved his interview this week.

873
00:44:03,480 --> 00:44:05,440
Speaker 2: I think he's talking about how like guys will say

874
00:44:05,440 --> 00:44:07,200
Speaker 2: he has moxie now or before he was just a

875
00:44:07,200 --> 00:44:07,799
Speaker 2: cocky ass.

876
00:44:07,880 --> 00:44:08,080
Speaker 1: Yeah.

877
00:44:08,120 --> 00:44:11,160
Speaker 2: Right, that's what winning does, where it's like, yeah, Baker,

878
00:44:11,239 --> 00:44:12,600
Speaker 2: that's part of it, But there's also part of it.

879
00:44:12,600 --> 00:44:14,799
Speaker 2: You were kind of a douche and now like you

880
00:44:14,880 --> 00:44:17,239
Speaker 2: do have the cool maxy of like you know, you're

881
00:44:17,239 --> 00:44:19,080
Speaker 2: not some young kid, You're a growing ass man person.

882
00:44:19,200 --> 00:44:20,759
Speaker 2: Dude's out in the stands. I kind of love it,

883
00:44:20,960 --> 00:44:22,560
Speaker 2: But then when you were twenty two, it just looked

884
00:44:22,560 --> 00:44:26,000
Speaker 2: it felt weird, So I don't know, I'm too close

885
00:44:26,040 --> 00:44:27,360
Speaker 2: to it, I think, And I'm just in love with

886
00:44:27,360 --> 00:44:29,640
Speaker 2: this team and I've obviously bet into this, like I'm

887
00:44:29,640 --> 00:44:32,560
Speaker 2: all in on this three it's like and I've got

888
00:44:32,560 --> 00:44:33,920
Speaker 2: guys telling me not to do it, and it's like

889
00:44:33,960 --> 00:44:35,839
Speaker 2: I got to touch the hot stove. I can't help

890
00:44:35,880 --> 00:44:38,399
Speaker 2: it here. This is the number doesn't make sense because

891
00:44:38,400 --> 00:44:40,480
Speaker 2: once again it pretty is out. There are number one

892
00:44:40,480 --> 00:44:43,480
Speaker 2: and number two receivers are out again. You're you're betting

893
00:44:43,520 --> 00:44:46,239
Speaker 2: on lightning striking twice with this this Fort and Iris team.

894
00:44:46,280 --> 00:44:50,279
Speaker 2: Like what happened that Rams game felt so incredibly flucish. Yeah,

895
00:44:50,320 --> 00:44:51,480
Speaker 2: the Viners covering it.

896
00:44:51,640 --> 00:44:55,200
Speaker 1: The Miners didn't win that game, right, The Rams lost

897
00:44:55,280 --> 00:44:55,720
Speaker 1: that game.

898
00:44:56,320 --> 00:44:58,640
Speaker 2: And even the cover where it's like you're betting on

899
00:44:58,840 --> 00:45:01,160
Speaker 2: Mac Jones again to be twenty of twenty three passing

900
00:45:01,400 --> 00:45:04,000
Speaker 2: and not the punt until midway through the fourth quarter. Like,

901
00:45:04,960 --> 00:45:06,719
Speaker 2: I just feel like the ask is way too big

902
00:45:06,760 --> 00:45:08,719
Speaker 2: if you're back in the four Irish team. So, like

903
00:45:08,840 --> 00:45:10,920
Speaker 2: I said, people can be careful here. There's clearly I

904
00:45:11,000 --> 00:45:13,840
Speaker 2: clearly have a blind spot here. I maybe talked to

905
00:45:13,920 --> 00:45:16,520
Speaker 2: two other really smart groups that are on this buck side,

906
00:45:16,560 --> 00:45:18,839
Speaker 2: but they're like me, they're scratch ahead is a little

907
00:45:18,840 --> 00:45:21,279
Speaker 2: bit and like, I don't know, we are we idiot here,

908
00:45:21,360 --> 00:45:23,480
Speaker 2: Like this feels like a gift getting minus through in

909
00:45:23,520 --> 00:45:26,000
Speaker 2: a Bucks team that with all their injuries they do

910
00:45:26,120 --> 00:45:29,440
Speaker 2: have in their secondary, there's ways to combat that with

911
00:45:30,360 --> 00:45:31,839
Speaker 2: the style of defense they play. I know it didn't

912
00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:34,480
Speaker 2: show up obviously gets the Seahawks, but I don't know.

913
00:45:35,160 --> 00:45:36,640
Speaker 2: Once Like I said, I just I think it's a

914
00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:39,680
Speaker 2: big difference. Betweam Sam Darnold and a healthy receiving core

915
00:45:39,760 --> 00:45:42,479
Speaker 2: the Seahawks had in Mac Jones here with a banged

916
00:45:42,520 --> 00:45:44,759
Speaker 2: up forty nine ers team, so very very unique game.

917
00:45:44,800 --> 00:45:46,560
Speaker 2: I'm excited to talking about it more on Sunday because

918
00:45:46,920 --> 00:45:48,400
Speaker 2: we'll have a lot more info, Like right now, we

919
00:45:48,440 --> 00:45:50,800
Speaker 2: just don't know where I'm going off right now, what

920
00:45:50,880 --> 00:45:53,000
Speaker 2: I know, which is pretty hasn't practiced in two days.

921
00:45:53,360 --> 00:45:56,600
Speaker 2: The wide receivers haven't practicing two days. If they practice today,

922
00:45:56,680 --> 00:45:58,440
Speaker 2: which they need to do most likely to play in

923
00:45:58,520 --> 00:46:00,839
Speaker 2: this game, we will have more info and this number

924
00:46:00,960 --> 00:46:03,239
Speaker 2: could easily drop the Bucks two and a half, and

925
00:46:03,320 --> 00:46:06,120
Speaker 2: then I'll talk more about the composition on that on Sunday.

926
00:46:08,320 --> 00:46:11,440
Speaker 1: I'm excited for Sunday because I feel like we're already

927
00:46:12,600 --> 00:46:15,799
Speaker 1: We've got like five teams right now that I think

928
00:46:16,040 --> 00:46:21,880
Speaker 1: five games that we feel will be in contention. The

929
00:46:21,960 --> 00:46:26,239
Speaker 1: Bucks are one of them, and we've got more to come.

930
00:46:26,520 --> 00:46:28,239
Speaker 2: Can I talk the Colts game? I don't know if

931
00:46:28,239 --> 00:46:30,040
Speaker 2: you have that on your thing, just two seconds on

932
00:46:30,080 --> 00:46:30,480
Speaker 2: the Colts.

933
00:46:30,640 --> 00:46:32,320
Speaker 1: I didn't put it on the list because the numbers

934
00:46:32,400 --> 00:46:35,200
Speaker 1: move so much. The numbers now it's seven, So Colts

935
00:46:35,239 --> 00:46:39,400
Speaker 1: are minus seven, you know against the Cardinals. Just to

936
00:46:39,480 --> 00:46:42,279
Speaker 1: set it up, they were five or five and a

937
00:46:42,360 --> 00:46:45,239
Speaker 1: half when we talked about it on Sunday. I bet

938
00:46:45,360 --> 00:46:49,239
Speaker 1: into the Colts when that number was lower. I haven't

939
00:46:49,239 --> 00:46:50,840
Speaker 1: brought it up because the numbers move so much.

940
00:46:50,719 --> 00:46:54,120
Speaker 2: So go ahead. Yeah, it is at minus seven minus

941
00:46:54,160 --> 00:46:57,120
Speaker 2: one fifteen now at hard Rock. So, like Chad said,

942
00:46:57,120 --> 00:46:59,160
Speaker 2: I think that's based off the Keller Murray news, right,

943
00:46:59,320 --> 00:47:01,120
Speaker 2: he's not practice, Like we said, That's why I wanted

944
00:47:01,120 --> 00:47:04,040
Speaker 2: to be on this number early. Yeah, because it's like, Okay,

945
00:47:04,480 --> 00:47:06,239
Speaker 2: he could have I know it sounds stupid. He could

946
00:47:06,239 --> 00:47:08,120
Speaker 2: have got a concussion from that snap of the football,

947
00:47:08,200 --> 00:47:10,120
Speaker 2: or he really does have a foot injury. We don't know,

948
00:47:10,360 --> 00:47:13,520
Speaker 2: but we do know is she's not practicing and that's

949
00:47:13,560 --> 00:47:16,560
Speaker 2: a big deal. And I wanted to look at what

950
00:47:16,800 --> 00:47:19,799
Speaker 2: are the trends of teams like the Cardinals that are

951
00:47:19,840 --> 00:47:23,200
Speaker 2: in this unique spot that they lost three straight games

952
00:47:23,480 --> 00:47:26,239
Speaker 2: on a last field a last second field goal. Like

953
00:47:26,440 --> 00:47:28,880
Speaker 2: to me, that's something that always jumps out to me,

954
00:47:28,920 --> 00:47:31,680
Speaker 2: where it's like they're argument numbers, the backup and trends

955
00:47:31,719 --> 00:47:34,839
Speaker 2: the backup teams that are in this spot because they

956
00:47:34,880 --> 00:47:37,200
Speaker 2: are humans. And like I say, all the time, history

957
00:47:37,320 --> 00:47:40,560
Speaker 2: does repeat itself with humans, you can't the game may change,

958
00:47:40,600 --> 00:47:43,720
Speaker 2: the personalities may change. At its core, it's still people

959
00:47:43,880 --> 00:47:47,160
Speaker 2: living in real lives that are affected by wins and losses.

960
00:47:47,239 --> 00:47:50,840
Speaker 2: And you dive into this one. Since twenty thirteen, teams

961
00:47:50,880 --> 00:47:52,919
Speaker 2: that have lost three straight by three points or less,

962
00:47:53,400 --> 00:47:55,680
Speaker 2: they're one in eight and they're following game straight up

963
00:47:56,120 --> 00:48:00,960
Speaker 2: two and seven against the spread. So again, this number people.

964
00:48:01,080 --> 00:48:03,640
Speaker 2: I still think it's worth grabbing the seven if you can,

965
00:48:03,840 --> 00:48:06,919
Speaker 2: just in case it is Brissette, this will instantly jump

966
00:48:06,960 --> 00:48:09,439
Speaker 2: to seven and a half and then if you hadn't

967
00:48:09,440 --> 00:48:11,680
Speaker 2: missed it, Yes, you can talk yourself into taking the Cardinals.

968
00:48:11,719 --> 00:48:13,880
Speaker 2: But I still think this is a cold signe. Like

969
00:48:13,880 --> 00:48:15,759
Speaker 2: we talkt Coults are a big is shit, They're a

970
00:48:15,800 --> 00:48:20,239
Speaker 2: big offensive line wise, defensive line wise, and I just

971
00:48:20,520 --> 00:48:22,920
Speaker 2: matchup wise. If I was going to be on Kyler,

972
00:48:23,040 --> 00:48:24,880
Speaker 2: it's like, okay, this is a Kyler game because he

973
00:48:25,040 --> 00:48:28,120
Speaker 2: is a dog. On the road always tends to be

974
00:48:28,239 --> 00:48:30,560
Speaker 2: much better than at home as a favorite, just historically

975
00:48:30,600 --> 00:48:33,920
Speaker 2: against the spread. But when I saw that trend, it

976
00:48:34,000 --> 00:48:36,200
Speaker 2: feels real to me that teams have hit their low

977
00:48:36,280 --> 00:48:38,640
Speaker 2: point and then you have to add in now the

978
00:48:38,680 --> 00:48:39,920
Speaker 2: time is something to do with trends. We have a

979
00:48:40,040 --> 00:48:43,080
Speaker 2: coach getting into physical altercations with players on the sideline

980
00:48:43,160 --> 00:48:44,480
Speaker 2: and having a talk in front of the team and

981
00:48:44,520 --> 00:48:48,080
Speaker 2: pay a hundred K fine, and almost players they'd be like, yeah,

982
00:48:48,120 --> 00:48:50,160
Speaker 2: it's cool, we forgive coach. We're moving on, when you

983
00:48:50,160 --> 00:48:51,879
Speaker 2: know in the back of their mind they're like, fuck

984
00:48:52,000 --> 00:48:54,120
Speaker 2: this guy. I cannot wait to be to be fired,

985
00:48:54,200 --> 00:48:56,919
Speaker 2: Like on everythinging ierber Meyer, this is the kicker. Ierber

986
00:48:56,960 --> 00:48:57,719
Speaker 2: Meyer kicked the kid.

987
00:48:57,800 --> 00:48:59,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, lost the whole team.

988
00:48:59,480 --> 00:49:02,880
Speaker 2: Lost the whole team. So they can say what they

989
00:49:02,920 --> 00:49:06,640
Speaker 2: want on camera, play it good. I mean, I just

990
00:49:06,760 --> 00:49:08,879
Speaker 2: felt like that was like, you know, again, they don't

991
00:49:08,920 --> 00:49:10,960
Speaker 2: have an owner of that team, or they would have

992
00:49:11,000 --> 00:49:13,840
Speaker 2: fired the coach after that incident. It's just you have

993
00:49:13,960 --> 00:49:16,840
Speaker 2: to do something there. So yeah, I just wanted to

994
00:49:16,840 --> 00:49:18,400
Speaker 2: bring that up because I saw that trend now I

995
00:49:18,520 --> 00:49:20,160
Speaker 2: was like, oh my god, this is exactly what I thought.

996
00:49:20,239 --> 00:49:21,719
Speaker 2: This is why I wanted to be on the Colts early.

997
00:49:21,800 --> 00:49:25,080
Speaker 2: And yeah, my hate was right earlier early in the

998
00:49:25,200 --> 00:49:27,279
Speaker 2: Sunday the five to five and a half was the

999
00:49:27,360 --> 00:49:30,800
Speaker 2: right read. And we'll be interesting if Kyler does get cleared,

1000
00:49:31,440 --> 00:49:33,360
Speaker 2: if this does drop below seven, I think this is

1001
00:49:33,360 --> 00:49:36,440
Speaker 2: what the line will be. Regardless if Kyler gets clear

1002
00:49:36,480 --> 00:49:38,520
Speaker 2: to come back, I just don't see dipping below seven again.

1003
00:49:39,440 --> 00:49:41,440
Speaker 1: Cincinnati at green Bay. I just want to touch on

1004
00:49:41,520 --> 00:49:44,600
Speaker 1: it for a second because after we talked about liking

1005
00:49:44,680 --> 00:49:47,960
Speaker 1: Green Bay on Tuesday. We won't put this in the contest,

1006
00:49:48,000 --> 00:49:51,880
Speaker 1: but as soon as maybe right as soon as we

1007
00:49:52,000 --> 00:49:56,960
Speaker 1: were done recording on Tuesday, the pack the Bengals traded

1008
00:49:57,000 --> 00:50:00,080
Speaker 1: for Joe Flacco and Zach Taylor's announced that he we

1009
00:50:00,080 --> 00:50:03,440
Speaker 1: will be starting, and the line moved to fourteen and

1010
00:50:03,480 --> 00:50:08,000
Speaker 1: a half. Yeah, so I bet the Packers at fourteen

1011
00:50:08,120 --> 00:50:14,479
Speaker 1: for a little taste, not too much, but I don't

1012
00:50:14,480 --> 00:50:17,920
Speaker 1: think anything changes for me. Is Joe Flacco going to

1013
00:50:18,000 --> 00:50:21,560
Speaker 1: be better at getting the ball to Jamar Chase. More importantly,

1014
00:50:21,960 --> 00:50:24,239
Speaker 1: is Joe Flacco going to play middle linebacker and stop

1015
00:50:24,320 --> 00:50:27,800
Speaker 1: Josh Jacobs from running after ten days of Matt Lafleur

1016
00:50:28,000 --> 00:50:30,440
Speaker 1: just being so mad that his running game isn't doing anything.

1017
00:50:30,560 --> 00:50:34,000
Speaker 1: So this Bengals team isn't going to be saved by

1018
00:50:34,120 --> 00:50:35,520
Speaker 1: Joe Flacco walking through that door.

1019
00:50:36,520 --> 00:50:38,719
Speaker 2: No, but it is shocking a lot of trends do

1020
00:50:38,880 --> 00:50:42,120
Speaker 2: love the Bengals, but it's like this computer doesn't understand

1021
00:50:42,200 --> 00:50:44,200
Speaker 2: what this team is now. I don't care what's happened

1022
00:50:44,200 --> 00:50:46,320
Speaker 2: in the last thirty years. This is you have to

1023
00:50:46,360 --> 00:50:50,919
Speaker 2: play this exact spot. This is very unique, and there's

1024
00:50:50,920 --> 00:50:53,319
Speaker 2: actually some good trends to that point to Lafleur after

1025
00:50:53,400 --> 00:50:57,719
Speaker 2: bie weeks playing against very bad teams, especially early bye

1026
00:50:57,760 --> 00:50:59,480
Speaker 2: weeks in the near where talking at the time, it's

1027
00:50:59,480 --> 00:51:02,600
Speaker 2: a big deal. You're healthy, rusted against a team that

1028
00:51:03,400 --> 00:51:05,960
Speaker 2: they've just been running through it for five straight weeks

1029
00:51:06,000 --> 00:51:08,160
Speaker 2: now and now they're on the road again as a

1030
00:51:08,239 --> 00:51:11,879
Speaker 2: double digit dog, and the Flacco trade just bizarro world.

1031
00:51:12,200 --> 00:51:14,759
Speaker 2: I don't know if they look at those circle data,

1032
00:51:14,760 --> 00:51:18,239
Speaker 2: but you're grabbing a quarterback that needs protection, and now

1033
00:51:18,320 --> 00:51:23,400
Speaker 2: he's going from mid tier maybe bottom twenty protection in

1034
00:51:23,520 --> 00:51:26,719
Speaker 2: the Browns to the bottom thirty two, number thirty one

1035
00:51:27,080 --> 00:51:31,319
Speaker 2: and past blocking. So Nightmary, Nightmary, nightmare scenario. I mean

1036
00:51:31,520 --> 00:51:34,080
Speaker 2: as a hater, as a fan, I mean, it would

1037
00:51:34,080 --> 00:51:36,960
Speaker 2: be the greatest thing ever Joe Flacco beats the Green

1038
00:51:37,000 --> 00:51:40,680
Speaker 2: Bay Packers twice on to bottom five teams in the NFL.

1039
00:51:40,719 --> 00:51:43,520
Speaker 2: It would be legendary. But this isn't a fairy tale.

1040
00:51:43,760 --> 00:51:46,920
Speaker 2: This isn't a made up world. This Bengals team is

1041
00:51:47,000 --> 00:51:49,719
Speaker 2: so much worse than that Browns team, and which is

1042
00:51:49,800 --> 00:51:51,600
Speaker 2: crazy to think and say, because I know the books

1043
00:51:51,600 --> 00:51:54,200
Speaker 2: don't reflect that. Right, they still have the Bengals A

1044
00:51:54,280 --> 00:51:55,840
Speaker 2: is a better favorite to win this division in this

1045
00:51:55,920 --> 00:51:58,879
Speaker 2: Browns team. But my model just hates this Bengals team.

1046
00:51:58,880 --> 00:52:00,640
Speaker 2: And I have this at fifteen and a half, so

1047
00:52:01,480 --> 00:52:05,520
Speaker 2: I'm still all green Bay. But my god, my god,

1048
00:52:05,640 --> 00:52:08,640
Speaker 2: I can't believe this is how bad it is for

1049
00:52:08,680 --> 00:52:10,360
Speaker 2: the Spangals team, that this number is what it is,

1050
00:52:10,440 --> 00:52:14,560
Speaker 2: and against a bank a Green Bay team that I

1051
00:52:14,680 --> 00:52:16,399
Speaker 2: want to say, they're not warranted to be this big

1052
00:52:16,440 --> 00:52:18,239
Speaker 2: of a favorite, Like they have their own issues, right,

1053
00:52:18,320 --> 00:52:22,400
Speaker 2: They got injuries they're not in rhythm offensively, but that

1054
00:52:22,600 --> 00:52:24,560
Speaker 2: just shows how bad this Spangals team. They should they

1055
00:52:24,560 --> 00:52:26,359
Speaker 2: should just absolute get rolled here by Green Bay.

1056
00:52:28,920 --> 00:52:31,920
Speaker 1: All right. I want to get to the primetime games

1057
00:52:32,000 --> 00:52:34,799
Speaker 1: because we actually liked all of them and we had

1058
00:52:34,840 --> 00:52:37,759
Speaker 1: a good conversation. I think the most challenging one is

1059
00:52:37,840 --> 00:52:41,759
Speaker 1: Detroit at Kansas City. Kansas City, you can get it

1060
00:52:41,840 --> 00:52:44,640
Speaker 1: at two at hard Rock. It's a two and a

1061
00:52:44,680 --> 00:52:48,040
Speaker 1: half in a lot of places. We were wondering why

1062
00:52:48,120 --> 00:52:51,560
Speaker 1: this line was moving towards the Chiefs when something like

1063
00:52:51,840 --> 00:52:55,719
Speaker 1: eighty percent of the bets were on the Lions. It

1064
00:52:55,840 --> 00:52:58,760
Speaker 1: told us that the wise guys really liked the Chiefs.

1065
00:52:59,160 --> 00:53:01,680
Speaker 1: Told us the books were taking a stand on the Chiefs.

1066
00:53:02,040 --> 00:53:05,440
Speaker 1: We do know at this point Terry and Arnold cornerback,

1067
00:53:05,520 --> 00:53:10,400
Speaker 1: Taylor Decker, tackle, Khalif Raymond receiver, Kirby Joseph safety, Aman

1068
00:53:10,520 --> 00:53:13,520
Speaker 1: Ross Saint Brown wide receiver for the Lions. They all

1069
00:53:13,640 --> 00:53:17,400
Speaker 1: missed practice on Wednesday, so there are a lot of injuries,

1070
00:53:17,440 --> 00:53:22,120
Speaker 1: a lot of people playing through through pain that normally

1071
00:53:22,160 --> 00:53:23,520
Speaker 1: they would be able to do, but it's so bad

1072
00:53:23,560 --> 00:53:26,360
Speaker 1: they can't even practice this week. That will probably have

1073
00:53:26,400 --> 00:53:28,359
Speaker 1: an impact on the game. I don't know that. That's

1074
00:53:28,360 --> 00:53:30,040
Speaker 1: why the line is moving, because it kind of started

1075
00:53:30,080 --> 00:53:33,879
Speaker 1: moving before that. It just feels like people are still

1076
00:53:34,000 --> 00:53:39,760
Speaker 1: underestimating the Chiefs. They're overestimating the Lions. Like the Chiefs

1077
00:53:39,800 --> 00:53:42,480
Speaker 1: offense isn't as bad as people thought it was going

1078
00:53:42,560 --> 00:53:46,080
Speaker 1: to be. The Lions offense. They're going on grass a

1079
00:53:46,160 --> 00:53:49,239
Speaker 1: little banged up. I don't mind being on the Chiefs here.

1080
00:53:49,239 --> 00:53:50,600
Speaker 1: I kind of like it. I've bet the Chiefs and

1081
00:53:50,680 --> 00:53:51,120
Speaker 1: minus two.

1082
00:53:52,880 --> 00:53:55,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, honestly, I do mind. I feel sick to my

1083
00:53:55,160 --> 00:53:57,160
Speaker 2: stomach because I was just trying to find a reason

1084
00:53:57,239 --> 00:53:59,840
Speaker 2: to be und Detroit and I just haven't. I'm the

1085
00:54:00,040 --> 00:54:03,080
Speaker 2: Chiefs with Chad. I probably we'll talk, so it might

1086
00:54:03,200 --> 00:54:04,560
Speaker 2: end up in our contest, but it's.

1087
00:54:04,480 --> 00:54:06,800
Speaker 1: Like I think it will. I think it's going to

1088
00:54:06,840 --> 00:54:08,080
Speaker 1: be the Rock and the Hard Place, and I think

1089
00:54:08,080 --> 00:54:09,280
Speaker 1: we're going to convince ourselves.

1090
00:54:10,480 --> 00:54:12,920
Speaker 2: We probably will. I just I can't get over how

1091
00:54:13,080 --> 00:54:16,000
Speaker 2: much love there is professionally to this chief side. And

1092
00:54:16,600 --> 00:54:18,480
Speaker 2: you know, I run through all the trends. I mean,

1093
00:54:18,520 --> 00:54:19,880
Speaker 2: we know a lot of fans of the show know

1094
00:54:20,000 --> 00:54:22,800
Speaker 2: him because we love getting off this Mahomes one Mahomes

1095
00:54:22,960 --> 00:54:26,279
Speaker 2: minus three or less. So if he's an underdog or

1096
00:54:26,360 --> 00:54:29,480
Speaker 2: sure you know, less than a field goal twenty nine

1097
00:54:29,480 --> 00:54:31,880
Speaker 2: to twelve and one in his career against the spread.

1098
00:54:32,120 --> 00:54:34,719
Speaker 2: So like again, this is why me and Chad love

1099
00:54:34,800 --> 00:54:36,840
Speaker 2: betting Mahomes. This's got spot. We've made a lot of

1100
00:54:36,920 --> 00:54:41,400
Speaker 2: money over his entire career in sex spot. So his

1101
00:54:41,560 --> 00:54:44,600
Speaker 2: opponent is coming off a win, I'm more than ten points.

1102
00:54:45,480 --> 00:54:49,280
Speaker 2: So again, same thing. They had a huge win Detroit.

1103
00:54:49,600 --> 00:54:52,200
Speaker 2: Now they're playing against Mahomes who's less than three points.

1104
00:54:52,800 --> 00:54:54,640
Speaker 2: He's fifteen to four in his career in this exact

1105
00:54:54,680 --> 00:54:58,719
Speaker 2: spot against the spread. All right, let's dive into even more. Mahomes.

1106
00:54:58,880 --> 00:55:02,080
Speaker 2: When he's playing against team that's covering eighty percent through

1107
00:55:02,160 --> 00:55:06,239
Speaker 2: five games, he's four and one against the spread three

1108
00:55:06,280 --> 00:55:09,919
Speaker 2: and oh straight up winning by over nine points per game.

1109
00:55:10,440 --> 00:55:14,239
Speaker 2: So when he's playing against Juggernauts, Mahomes in his career

1110
00:55:14,320 --> 00:55:16,440
Speaker 2: showed up in this exact spot. So once again, I

1111
00:55:16,520 --> 00:55:18,120
Speaker 2: want to paint a picture for why people are like

1112
00:55:18,120 --> 00:55:21,760
Speaker 2: shure shocked. These pros are betting that. You the football

1113
00:55:21,920 --> 00:55:24,720
Speaker 2: geeks and nerds already liked this spot for the Chiefs,

1114
00:55:25,160 --> 00:55:27,600
Speaker 2: but then you have all these trends that keep showing

1115
00:55:27,760 --> 00:55:30,359
Speaker 2: how of a spot. This is for this Chiefs team

1116
00:55:30,400 --> 00:55:35,720
Speaker 2: and specifically a Mahomes. So Mahomes, you know he's faced

1117
00:55:36,120 --> 00:55:38,680
Speaker 2: great offense in his career, right, this is a team

1118
00:55:38,719 --> 00:55:41,040
Speaker 2: that's lines were scoring more than thirty points per game.

1119
00:55:41,120 --> 00:55:43,480
Speaker 2: This sap in five times in his career. Mahomes, he's

1120
00:55:43,520 --> 00:55:45,759
Speaker 2: five and oh straight up against those teams, winning those

1121
00:55:45,760 --> 00:55:48,120
Speaker 2: games by a wast ten points. When he's you know,

1122
00:55:48,360 --> 00:55:51,160
Speaker 2: in primetime, which this is a primetime game for Mahomes,

1123
00:55:52,320 --> 00:55:55,920
Speaker 2: nineteen and six straight up in this exact spot, primetime

1124
00:55:56,040 --> 00:56:00,279
Speaker 2: game at home, So can't avoid it. I wanted to

1125
00:56:00,400 --> 00:56:03,680
Speaker 2: fine Reese's thelectus Detroit team. I think this is just

1126
00:56:03,760 --> 00:56:08,600
Speaker 2: the classic case of they are very verrely talented offensively,

1127
00:56:09,440 --> 00:56:13,000
Speaker 2: they have injuries to their defense. Can they out scheme

1128
00:56:13,080 --> 00:56:16,040
Speaker 2: Spags here and you know, be a the juggernaut they are?

1129
00:56:17,040 --> 00:56:18,960
Speaker 2: I don't know if they can. Like this just feels

1130
00:56:19,040 --> 00:56:20,640
Speaker 2: like the type of game or Spag is gonna take

1131
00:56:20,680 --> 00:56:24,680
Speaker 2: away whatever their strength is. That these other defense they played,

1132
00:56:25,040 --> 00:56:26,680
Speaker 2: these are bad teams, and you saw a little bit

1133
00:56:26,680 --> 00:56:28,279
Speaker 2: of the Browns. The Browns were taking away what they

1134
00:56:28,320 --> 00:56:30,000
Speaker 2: want to do, which is run the ball and make

1135
00:56:30,120 --> 00:56:33,239
Speaker 2: golf beat you. I think that's Spags is gonna do.

1136
00:56:33,760 --> 00:56:36,239
Speaker 2: I mean, Chad, you said, I'm on s Brown. That's

1137
00:56:36,280 --> 00:56:38,359
Speaker 2: a huge deal. If he's banged up in my misses game.

1138
00:56:38,440 --> 00:56:41,680
Speaker 2: He is the safety valve of all safety valve for golf.

1139
00:56:41,800 --> 00:56:45,040
Speaker 2: Like anytime they need a third down a crow route

1140
00:56:45,120 --> 00:56:47,560
Speaker 2: or a slant and they let im on a round pick,

1141
00:56:48,040 --> 00:56:50,600
Speaker 2: it's unguardable the man wins. It feels like every time

1142
00:56:50,680 --> 00:56:52,759
Speaker 2: on third down it's just an auto play. And if

1143
00:56:52,800 --> 00:56:54,279
Speaker 2: he doesn't win it, he's one yard short and a

1144
00:56:54,320 --> 00:56:56,600
Speaker 2: fourth down they go for it anyway. So yeah, I

1145
00:56:57,000 --> 00:56:59,520
Speaker 2: can't believe it. It's like Detroit as a dog here.

1146
00:56:59,600 --> 00:57:01,440
Speaker 2: I can I believe. I'm not on that side, but

1147
00:57:02,080 --> 00:57:04,000
Speaker 2: you gotta stick with us people. You got to take

1148
00:57:04,040 --> 00:57:06,319
Speaker 2: the Chiefs here. This is the chief spot, a Chief's number.

1149
00:57:07,000 --> 00:57:10,600
Speaker 2: Long term, we win this one. So again, it might

1150
00:57:10,680 --> 00:57:13,759
Speaker 2: not work here. There's no guaranteed bet. There's one hundred

1151
00:57:13,760 --> 00:57:16,439
Speaker 2: percent bet, but it's like you're playing the long term game.

1152
00:57:16,960 --> 00:57:18,560
Speaker 2: You have to back Mahomes in this spot. He just

1153
00:57:18,680 --> 00:57:21,400
Speaker 2: plays really well in these big moments when people don't

1154
00:57:21,440 --> 00:57:24,040
Speaker 2: believe in them, let alone the general public. Like the

1155
00:57:24,120 --> 00:57:27,360
Speaker 2: fact that it's still you know, seventy five percent of

1156
00:57:27,480 --> 00:57:30,320
Speaker 2: the money and the tickets on this Detroit team. There's

1157
00:57:30,360 --> 00:57:32,040
Speaker 2: one book that I've moved the Chiefs back to one

1158
00:57:32,040 --> 00:57:34,360
Speaker 2: and a half. You could go grab. I just don't

1159
00:57:34,360 --> 00:57:35,920
Speaker 2: know if the spread's gonna matter. Like the books you're

1160
00:57:35,920 --> 00:57:38,040
Speaker 2: telling us, this ain't going to be under three, Like

1161
00:57:38,160 --> 00:57:39,680
Speaker 2: this is going to be a field goal one more

1162
00:57:39,760 --> 00:57:42,200
Speaker 2: game the Chiefs win here, So I don't know they're

1163
00:57:42,200 --> 00:57:44,400
Speaker 2: gonna get there late win field goal by Mahomes, but

1164
00:57:45,760 --> 00:57:48,080
Speaker 2: I love them to bounce back here after that loss

1165
00:57:48,080 --> 00:57:50,600
Speaker 2: they had against the Jaguars, and once again we're playing

1166
00:57:50,640 --> 00:57:53,080
Speaker 2: the number this is. This was three and a half then,

1167
00:57:53,160 --> 00:57:54,720
Speaker 2: no matter what I had to be on Detroit, but

1168
00:57:54,800 --> 00:57:57,440
Speaker 2: if it was three or less, I'm going to back

1169
00:57:57,480 --> 00:57:59,560
Speaker 2: Mahomes this exact spot. Like we win against them here

1170
00:58:00,320 --> 00:58:02,200
Speaker 2: early in the year, when the Eagles were a favorite

1171
00:58:02,600 --> 00:58:05,440
Speaker 2: against the Chiefs, that was different. They were banged up

1172
00:58:05,440 --> 00:58:07,000
Speaker 2: then they had a lot of pieces missing. I think

1173
00:58:07,040 --> 00:58:09,520
Speaker 2: with Worthy back, you've seen their offense just take that

1174
00:58:09,640 --> 00:58:11,280
Speaker 2: next step they needed with him there that he just

1175
00:58:11,400 --> 00:58:14,080
Speaker 2: opens things up. So yeah, I really like this matchup

1176
00:58:14,080 --> 00:58:17,040
Speaker 2: for the Chiefs offense against the defense of Detroit and defensively.

1177
00:58:17,080 --> 00:58:19,520
Speaker 2: I think spagg is gonna get his best this Detroit team,

1178
00:58:19,560 --> 00:58:20,800
Speaker 2: that he's gonna be able to slow it down. There's

1179
00:58:20,800 --> 00:58:22,919
Speaker 2: no way they're gonna get more than thirty points. They're

1180
00:58:23,000 --> 00:58:25,120
Speaker 2: not gonna be what they've been at home, which is

1181
00:58:25,160 --> 00:58:28,640
Speaker 2: this indoor juggernaut. This is outdoors. Like Chad said on grass,

1182
00:58:29,320 --> 00:58:31,320
Speaker 2: they're not cutting that grass this week. They're gonna water

1183
00:58:31,400 --> 00:58:33,520
Speaker 2: before the game as well. It ain't gonna be that

1184
00:58:33,720 --> 00:58:36,320
Speaker 2: turf like they're used to. So yeah, I'm people gonna

1185
00:58:36,440 --> 00:58:38,160
Speaker 2: I'm starting to really fall in love this Chiefs. I'm

1186
00:58:38,240 --> 00:58:41,160
Speaker 2: just trying to be patient here because I know anything

1187
00:58:41,200 --> 00:58:43,360
Speaker 2: can happen in these steps of matchups with two great teams.

1188
00:58:43,880 --> 00:58:48,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, the way we're talking about it, belise how we

1189
00:58:48,920 --> 00:58:54,000
Speaker 1: feel deep down about this game, which is real fear,

1190
00:58:54,600 --> 00:59:00,320
Speaker 1: real trepidation. I think we're somewhat leaning into how the

1191
00:59:00,440 --> 00:59:04,640
Speaker 1: books are telling us they think this game is going

1192
00:59:04,720 --> 00:59:07,480
Speaker 1: to go, because they haven't moved it at all. I

1193
00:59:07,560 --> 00:59:10,600
Speaker 1: thought by now the Chiefs would be an underdog. Like

1194
00:59:10,960 --> 00:59:13,800
Speaker 1: on Sunday night, we started talking like this line's going

1195
00:59:13,840 --> 00:59:17,160
Speaker 1: to move, it's going to be the Chiefs, and it hasn't.

1196
00:59:17,240 --> 00:59:20,280
Speaker 1: It's going in the complete opposite direction. Even though all

1197
00:59:20,440 --> 00:59:22,520
Speaker 1: of the money, all of the tickets I mean are

1198
00:59:22,600 --> 00:59:26,240
Speaker 1: coming in on Detroit right now. It just tells you

1199
00:59:26,400 --> 00:59:29,919
Speaker 1: that there's so much wise guy resistance on this Chiefs team.

1200
00:59:30,000 --> 00:59:32,240
Speaker 1: So it took me until yesterday to bet it. I

1201
00:59:32,360 --> 00:59:35,720
Speaker 1: betted it too, because as confident as we sound talking

1202
00:59:35,720 --> 00:59:39,600
Speaker 1: about this game, it's still going to be a nightmare

1203
00:59:39,680 --> 00:59:41,720
Speaker 1: to watch, and it's going to keep us up late,

1204
00:59:42,160 --> 00:59:44,800
Speaker 1: and I bet it's going to be in our contest

1205
00:59:45,280 --> 00:59:47,680
Speaker 1: because it's going to come down to this and the

1206
00:59:47,800 --> 00:59:49,640
Speaker 1: Saints and the Box and we're going to be like,

1207
00:59:49,800 --> 00:59:52,320
Speaker 1: oh my god, what are we going to do? Last game?

1208
00:59:52,360 --> 01:00:00,880
Speaker 1: I want to talk about Chicago at washingingon this game

1209
01:00:01,000 --> 01:00:03,680
Speaker 1: has moved down to four. It was at four and

1210
01:00:03,720 --> 01:00:10,040
Speaker 1: a half. Our comments section lighting up on this one.

1211
01:00:10,600 --> 01:00:13,840
Speaker 1: A lot of people loving the Commanders. I'm here for it.

1212
01:00:14,240 --> 01:00:17,320
Speaker 1: So many people got opinions the Bears are the play.

1213
01:00:17,640 --> 01:00:19,800
Speaker 1: I bet the Bears at four and a half. I

1214
01:00:19,960 --> 01:00:23,080
Speaker 1: know you kind of feel the same way, but don't

1215
01:00:23,200 --> 01:00:25,840
Speaker 1: love it. I don't see this getting into our contest

1216
01:00:26,760 --> 01:00:30,280
Speaker 1: compared to the other ones that we have, But I

1217
01:00:30,360 --> 01:00:33,840
Speaker 1: think the Commander is getting too much love for the

1218
01:00:33,920 --> 01:00:36,600
Speaker 1: way they beat up on the Chargers and Jaden Daniel's

1219
01:00:36,640 --> 01:00:41,480
Speaker 1: coming back and it's overinflating this line. It's Tyreek Stevenson's

1220
01:00:41,680 --> 01:00:42,439
Speaker 1: redemption game.

1221
01:00:43,960 --> 01:00:45,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just another game. I feel like I have

1222
01:00:45,360 --> 01:00:47,800
Speaker 2: a total blind spot too, because it's way off my

1223
01:00:47,920 --> 01:00:52,080
Speaker 2: model number, which again meaning what meaning I have this

1224
01:00:52,200 --> 01:00:56,960
Speaker 2: at three? Like, yeah, why are we not hammering the

1225
01:00:57,040 --> 01:00:59,120
Speaker 2: Bears plus four and a half And that's my fear

1226
01:00:59,200 --> 01:01:02,640
Speaker 2: where it's like I always say, they're not here to

1227
01:01:02,680 --> 01:01:05,320
Speaker 2: give away free one of these sportsbooks, and that's just

1228
01:01:05,360 --> 01:01:07,960
Speaker 2: a very bizarre number where everyone's in agreeance with the

1229
01:01:08,040 --> 01:01:10,200
Speaker 2: chat like who That's why I couldn't believe there's so

1230
01:01:10,200 --> 01:01:12,560
Speaker 2: many professionals that like this Commander side. It's like what

1231
01:01:12,680 --> 01:01:14,560
Speaker 2: do you like? Like, what is the matchup here that

1232
01:01:14,640 --> 01:01:17,160
Speaker 2: makes them a four and a half point favorite over

1233
01:01:17,200 --> 01:01:19,600
Speaker 2: this Bears team? I just I can't find it, And

1234
01:01:19,680 --> 01:01:21,920
Speaker 2: it feels like people are grasping at straws to try

1235
01:01:21,960 --> 01:01:24,600
Speaker 2: to make it sound as if it is a good number,

1236
01:01:24,640 --> 01:01:27,280
Speaker 2: where it's like you're just playing the number because you

1237
01:01:27,400 --> 01:01:29,120
Speaker 2: know it's what the book is gonna need. The book

1238
01:01:29,200 --> 01:01:33,000
Speaker 2: is gonna need the Commanders here. The public dog is

1239
01:01:33,080 --> 01:01:34,880
Speaker 2: going to be this Bears team, I have no doubt

1240
01:01:34,880 --> 01:01:37,560
Speaker 2: about it. But it's like I think the public is right.

1241
01:01:37,680 --> 01:01:40,960
Speaker 2: I think this is too inflated. I can't find trends

1242
01:01:41,000 --> 01:01:44,440
Speaker 2: that point to love in this Washington team. You know,

1243
01:01:44,600 --> 01:01:50,960
Speaker 2: the the Bears. Yes, they're not as good. I guess

1244
01:01:51,000 --> 01:01:54,200
Speaker 2: you could say as commanders here we are through five weeks,

1245
01:01:54,280 --> 01:01:56,360
Speaker 2: but like I view them, is not that different of teams,

1246
01:01:56,480 --> 01:01:59,960
Speaker 2: Like skill wise, you know, Jane Daniels had incredible seas

1247
01:02:00,200 --> 01:02:03,760
Speaker 2: last year. I still told you I still have Caleb

1248
01:02:03,880 --> 01:02:05,840
Speaker 2: as like basically the same guy. I still think he's

1249
01:02:05,880 --> 01:02:08,520
Speaker 2: greated just as high, and through five weeks, I think

1250
01:02:08,560 --> 01:02:09,720
Speaker 2: he's played really well in.

1251
01:02:09,800 --> 01:02:12,080
Speaker 1: This offense, so he's played amazing.

1252
01:02:13,480 --> 01:02:14,840
Speaker 2: So I just fon't out to deal with this one.

1253
01:02:14,920 --> 01:02:18,160
Speaker 2: It's like I want to be on the Bears, but

1254
01:02:18,560 --> 01:02:20,960
Speaker 2: fifteen years of being a professional sports better just has

1255
01:02:21,040 --> 01:02:23,840
Speaker 2: the alarms going off here of being like, man, this

1256
01:02:24,080 --> 01:02:26,800
Speaker 2: is a weird line. There's I just I'm glad it

1257
01:02:26,880 --> 01:02:29,640
Speaker 2: came down like seeing it now for like hard rock, yeah,

1258
01:02:29,720 --> 01:02:31,720
Speaker 2: thank god, Like at least some professionals are joining us

1259
01:02:31,760 --> 01:02:34,400
Speaker 2: on this Bear side. Because I tell you this, early

1260
01:02:34,440 --> 01:02:36,080
Speaker 2: in the week, it was all commander's money. It was

1261
01:02:36,160 --> 01:02:38,720
Speaker 2: all love for this commander's team. And I'm with Jet.

1262
01:02:38,760 --> 01:02:41,720
Speaker 2: I just totally think people are box score watching that

1263
01:02:42,080 --> 01:02:45,840
Speaker 2: Chargers game and they're just overrating this team. And like

1264
01:02:45,960 --> 01:02:48,920
Speaker 2: Chad said, through a quarter and a half, Daniel was

1265
01:02:48,920 --> 01:02:50,960
Speaker 2: look totally uncomfortable and didn't look right at that knee brace.

1266
01:02:51,000 --> 01:02:53,280
Speaker 2: Now once he got in rhythm, yeah it's you saw

1267
01:02:53,400 --> 01:02:56,200
Speaker 2: Jane Daniels, one of the more deably passers downfield. We

1268
01:02:56,320 --> 01:02:59,240
Speaker 2: were done though, so to me, I'll be patient here,

1269
01:02:59,360 --> 01:03:02,120
Speaker 2: Like if Gerry McLaurin gets cleared, if they're all good

1270
01:03:02,160 --> 01:03:05,439
Speaker 2: to go offensively, they're fully healthy, Okay, maybe we won't

1271
01:03:05,480 --> 01:03:06,960
Speaker 2: have this contest, but I think we've got a real

1272
01:03:07,000 --> 01:03:09,600
Speaker 2: discussion Sunday if this is one of the one of

1273
01:03:09,640 --> 01:03:11,760
Speaker 2: the five we want to get here because I do

1274
01:03:12,040 --> 01:03:13,959
Speaker 2: like the number. I like the four and a half.

1275
01:03:13,960 --> 01:03:16,120
Speaker 2: I bet the four and a half. My just weary

1276
01:03:16,160 --> 01:03:18,240
Speaker 2: here is just what am I missing? This feels too

1277
01:03:18,280 --> 01:03:21,840
Speaker 2: good to be true, just a bizarre number. Like again,

1278
01:03:21,880 --> 01:03:23,400
Speaker 2: they would have got the same amount of action on

1279
01:03:23,480 --> 01:03:25,040
Speaker 2: this Bear steam of three and a half and they

1280
01:03:25,080 --> 01:03:26,640
Speaker 2: did a four and a half. I don't know why

1281
01:03:26,680 --> 01:03:29,160
Speaker 2: they gave us a free point there. It's that's the

1282
01:03:29,240 --> 01:03:31,680
Speaker 2: part I can't get over. It's just it's a dumb

1283
01:03:31,760 --> 01:03:33,520
Speaker 2: line by the books, and the books don't make dumb

1284
01:03:33,560 --> 01:03:36,080
Speaker 2: lines like that, Like they're not idiots. This is billion

1285
01:03:36,120 --> 01:03:39,720
Speaker 2: dollar companies, so really really bizarre line. You can once again,

1286
01:03:39,760 --> 01:03:41,480
Speaker 2: you can still get a four and a half. I

1287
01:03:41,560 --> 01:03:42,960
Speaker 2: can't believe it, but you can still get it.

1288
01:03:43,640 --> 01:03:45,560
Speaker 1: It's on the list for Sunday, Simon.

1289
01:03:45,800 --> 01:03:46,360
Speaker 2: On the list.

1290
01:03:46,480 --> 01:03:50,040
Speaker 1: We got the Panthers, we got the Chargers, we got

1291
01:03:50,120 --> 01:03:57,000
Speaker 1: the Steelers, we got the Saints, we got the Raiders,

1292
01:03:57,680 --> 01:04:00,600
Speaker 1: the Bucks, the Chiefs, and the Bear So a healthy

1293
01:04:00,720 --> 01:04:04,960
Speaker 1: number for Sunday. I think I'm looking at seven eight games. Yeah,

1294
01:04:05,120 --> 01:04:07,640
Speaker 1: for Sunday, which is a good conversation. I think there's

1295
01:04:07,720 --> 01:04:10,000
Speaker 1: four that we that we feel pretty good about, and

1296
01:04:10,080 --> 01:04:12,080
Speaker 1: then it's going to be a rock and a hard

1297
01:04:12,120 --> 01:04:15,040
Speaker 1: placed conversation for the rest. But I'm excited for it.

1298
01:04:15,080 --> 01:04:17,440
Speaker 1: I'm here for it. A lot of favorites, a lot

1299
01:04:17,520 --> 01:04:18,040
Speaker 1: of favorites.

1300
01:04:18,480 --> 01:04:21,360
Speaker 2: If you be one second, one second survivor green Bay

1301
01:04:21,680 --> 01:04:22,960
Speaker 2: survivor green Bay.

1302
01:04:23,320 --> 01:04:26,320
Speaker 1: Well that's what I was going to say. Okay, great, Simon,

1303
01:04:27,120 --> 01:04:31,320
Speaker 1: it's time for you to give us your biggest bets

1304
01:04:31,760 --> 01:04:33,240
Speaker 1: of the week.

1305
01:04:33,440 --> 01:04:37,440
Speaker 2: Pull up those pants and be a man. I mean, ATS,

1306
01:04:37,840 --> 01:04:39,800
Speaker 2: this week's give me a little tough, people, because I'm

1307
01:04:39,840 --> 01:04:41,480
Speaker 2: kind of getting lazy this week because we did so

1308
01:04:41,600 --> 01:04:44,960
Speaker 2: well ATS last week. I tend to just go with

1309
01:04:45,160 --> 01:04:48,680
Speaker 2: easy favorites and pay pay them together. Like the Rams,

1310
01:04:49,320 --> 01:04:51,720
Speaker 2: I love that number, but I'd rather just take their

1311
01:04:51,760 --> 01:04:54,640
Speaker 2: money line and pair would say the Eagles or you know,

1312
01:04:55,000 --> 01:04:56,920
Speaker 2: we just talked about we like the Vegas, we like

1313
01:04:56,960 --> 01:04:58,520
Speaker 2: the Chargers. Like, there's a lot of teams I'm just

1314
01:04:58,560 --> 01:05:00,880
Speaker 2: paying money lines with this week, So I would say

1315
01:05:00,880 --> 01:05:06,040
Speaker 2: it's different than most weeks. If we're ATS my biggest bets.

1316
01:05:06,320 --> 01:05:08,560
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm on Carolina three and a half on

1317
01:05:08,680 --> 01:05:12,560
Speaker 2: the Saints three and a half, took positions on Pittsburgh.

1318
01:05:13,040 --> 01:05:14,560
Speaker 2: Still would I guess the five and a half, But

1319
01:05:14,600 --> 01:05:16,520
Speaker 2: obviously I feel much better when it was in the fours,

1320
01:05:17,280 --> 01:05:18,960
Speaker 2: and I just know I'm gonna get there in the Chiefs.

1321
01:05:18,960 --> 01:05:20,040
Speaker 2: The Chiefs are prebabing going to be one of my

1322
01:05:20,040 --> 01:05:23,320
Speaker 2: bigger bets. So yeah, against the spread, those will probably

1323
01:05:23,320 --> 01:05:24,080
Speaker 2: be my bigger ones.

1324
01:05:24,720 --> 01:05:27,840
Speaker 1: That's why I feel like the Chiefs will end up

1325
01:05:27,920 --> 01:05:31,120
Speaker 1: being in the contest because we're both talking ourselves into

1326
01:05:31,200 --> 01:05:35,960
Speaker 1: how confident we feel about this, which is a frightening,

1327
01:05:37,160 --> 01:05:40,920
Speaker 1: frightening scenario. All right, let's do an a round robin

1328
01:05:41,720 --> 01:05:43,880
Speaker 1: underdog parlay.

1329
01:05:46,160 --> 01:05:50,320
Speaker 2: My dog blocks your dog, Your dog blocks mo dog.

1330
01:05:51,400 --> 01:05:57,840
Speaker 1: I would do Panthers, Yeah, I would do Saints. Yeah,

1331
01:05:58,960 --> 01:06:01,160
Speaker 1: I would do Bears.

1332
01:06:02,080 --> 01:06:04,800
Speaker 2: Love it it. Gotta do Detroit just in case.

1333
01:06:04,960 --> 01:06:15,920
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, Detroit, Saints, Panthers Bears, Detroit. Who's our fifth?

1334
01:06:18,720 --> 01:06:20,480
Speaker 2: I mean, it's kind of boring, but let's let's thar

1335
01:06:20,560 --> 01:06:22,960
Speaker 2: Seahawks and they're plus one plus one hundred right now,

1336
01:06:23,160 --> 01:06:23,800
Speaker 2: that's what I thought.

1337
01:06:24,120 --> 01:06:32,800
Speaker 1: Okay, money line underdog round robin Saints, Panthers, Bears, Seahawks,

1338
01:06:33,320 --> 01:06:38,040
Speaker 1: and Detroit our money line round robin favorite.

1339
01:06:38,760 --> 01:06:41,040
Speaker 2: Let's do six six this week because I have a

1340
01:06:41,080 --> 01:06:43,120
Speaker 2: lot of favorite talk. I like to win out right.

1341
01:06:43,360 --> 01:06:47,080
Speaker 2: Oh exciting Raiders, Raiders. If you hear this in time,

1342
01:06:47,240 --> 01:06:48,680
Speaker 2: you're gonna throw the Eagles in there. I just don't

1343
01:06:48,680 --> 01:06:52,120
Speaker 2: think enough people hear this. In Times Pittsburgh, we talked

1344
01:06:52,160 --> 01:06:55,400
Speaker 2: about Tomlin nine and zero in this exact spot, or

1345
01:06:55,480 --> 01:06:58,280
Speaker 2: nine and one straight up in this exact spot. Colts

1346
01:06:59,360 --> 01:07:06,280
Speaker 2: love It, Rams McVeigh Stafford sixteen and oh as a

1347
01:07:06,360 --> 01:07:11,560
Speaker 2: favorite of six points or more until last week, so

1348
01:07:12,760 --> 01:07:15,080
Speaker 2: you expect to bounce back, right, So I had no

1349
01:07:15,120 --> 01:07:18,920
Speaker 2: problem going off the Rams here against the Ravens on

1350
01:07:19,000 --> 01:07:23,240
Speaker 2: the money line to thrown around Robin already gave out Vegas, right, Chad,

1351
01:07:23,280 --> 01:07:27,240
Speaker 2: you said that one you can. I wouldn't do the

1352
01:07:27,320 --> 01:07:30,080
Speaker 2: money line on Green Bay, but like the old line

1353
01:07:30,120 --> 01:07:32,480
Speaker 2: six and a half, if you want take it down,

1354
01:07:33,120 --> 01:07:35,360
Speaker 2: that's probably minus five hundred. I wouldn't mind throwing that

1355
01:07:35,400 --> 01:07:37,960
Speaker 2: in as the sixth leg and the Chargers again, that's

1356
01:07:37,960 --> 01:07:40,160
Speaker 2: why I want to do six seven legs this week.

1357
01:07:40,240 --> 01:07:42,880
Speaker 2: I just one of these favorites. Sure they're gonna lose,

1358
01:07:43,400 --> 01:07:45,360
Speaker 2: but I wouldn't be shocked all seven of these guys winning.

1359
01:07:45,400 --> 01:07:47,520
Speaker 2: Like last week was really the week of the underdogs.

1360
01:07:47,880 --> 01:07:50,000
Speaker 2: I think this week is gonna be super chalky. On

1361
01:07:50,040 --> 01:07:51,560
Speaker 2: the money line for favorites.

1362
01:07:53,080 --> 01:07:56,080
Speaker 1: We said survivor. Let me repeat that, actually Raiders for

1363
01:07:56,200 --> 01:08:02,960
Speaker 1: the favorite parlay Raiders, Eagles, Steelers, Cults, Chargers, and maybe

1364
01:08:03,040 --> 01:08:09,760
Speaker 1: throw in the Packers autlined minus six survivor. We just

1365
01:08:09,840 --> 01:08:14,959
Speaker 1: said Packers. Yeah sharp versus square. Let's see, last week

1366
01:08:15,080 --> 01:08:18,439
Speaker 1: I had the Jets, you had the Saints. You one

1367
01:08:18,800 --> 01:08:22,240
Speaker 1: I lost. Who would you like to do this week?

1368
01:08:22,360 --> 01:08:26,400
Speaker 2: Simon, I gotta go Chiefs. I guess that's what I thought.

1369
01:08:26,520 --> 01:08:29,120
Speaker 2: That's it. I really need to take a stand on

1370
01:08:29,200 --> 01:08:31,040
Speaker 2: that one. Just like last week with the Saints. It's

1371
01:08:31,080 --> 01:08:33,080
Speaker 2: like I'm being a big I might as well make

1372
01:08:33,080 --> 01:08:34,040
Speaker 2: it my Sharper Square.

1373
01:08:34,439 --> 01:08:38,200
Speaker 1: I think I'm gonna take Carolina, Okay, plus three. Yeah,

1374
01:08:38,600 --> 01:08:41,439
Speaker 1: I'll take them plus three. But we're in. We're in,

1375
01:08:41,520 --> 01:08:43,080
Speaker 1: and I like it more and more the more that

1376
01:08:43,160 --> 01:08:45,559
Speaker 1: we talk about it. All Right, We're gonna be back

1377
01:08:45,600 --> 01:08:48,320
Speaker 1: on Sunday. This has been Sharper Square, part of the

1378
01:08:48,439 --> 01:08:53,559
Speaker 1: Volume podcast Network. We will be back Sharper Square YouTube

1379
01:08:53,880 --> 01:08:57,519
Speaker 1: Sunday morning. You're gonna east drop on a very intimate

1380
01:08:57,600 --> 01:09:01,160
Speaker 1: conversation between me and Simon. We're gonna panic, We're gonna

1381
01:09:01,160 --> 01:09:04,680
Speaker 1: make human decisions. We're gonna regret the rest of the

1382
01:09:04,760 --> 01:09:08,000
Speaker 1: day and probably Monday too. We will be back Sharper

1383
01:09:08,040 --> 01:09:10,920
Speaker 1: Square Sunday at seven thirty pm Eastern. To recap all

1384
01:09:11,000 --> 01:09:16,360
Speaker 1: that misery, watch or listen YouTube Sharper Square. Like this video,

1385
01:09:16,400 --> 01:09:19,639
Speaker 1: subscribe to the channel. Also download us from Spotify, Apple Pods,

1386
01:09:19,680 --> 01:09:22,559
Speaker 1: wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe we US

1387
01:09:22,600 --> 01:09:24,960
Speaker 1: five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift.

1388
01:09:25,080 --> 01:09:27,320
Speaker 1: Until next time, Love you,