Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane Jay Ley.
Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,
Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,
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Speaker 1: JP Morgan and I want to focus with our Taylor
Speaker 1: Riggs on one person, the physicist out of reading Mary
Speaker 1: Lake is a different person. She's really a nerd, really
Speaker 1: a geek. How did you get the JP Morgan and
Speaker 1: what are they grooming her for? I think this is
Speaker 1: a brilliant move a CFO. She's been running all of
Speaker 1: the analysts calls, all of the media calls, for example,
Speaker 1: leaving last Friday, for example, Jamie Diamond is calling in
Speaker 1: from Florida and she's the one holding down the fort.
Speaker 1: No one questions her ability to be a key CFO.
Speaker 1: Moving her over to the consumer business a sort of
Speaker 1: squashes the rumors that we've been hearing about her going
Speaker 1: to Wells Fargo more importantly, people it could be, but
Speaker 1: I also think it's very clear about succession planning, and
Speaker 1: I think putting her over in the consumer business, which
Speaker 1: as we know Jamie. JP Morgan is best in class,
Speaker 1: but as we know, they've been sort of leveraging more
Speaker 1: and more of the consumer business is equity and fick,
Speaker 1: and some of the investment banking pipelines have been slowing down.
Speaker 1: They have been leveraging more that consumer business. Putting her
Speaker 1: in a clear line to be running that specific franchise
Speaker 1: I think is also a very smart move. I think
Speaker 1: a lot of this came as well from the hearings.
Speaker 1: One that the House of Representatives had asked Jamie Diamond
Speaker 1: if a person of color or woman would be the
Speaker 1: next CEO. He did not raise his hand. He joked
Speaker 1: with Marian Lake on the earnings call a few days
Speaker 1: later and basically said, the operating committee makes the decision.
Speaker 1: I'm not going to so I think this is very
Speaker 1: smart for them. It's gonna be interesting to sspect a
Speaker 1: lot of hedhubs is going to be seeing their way
Speaker 1: to these three women's doors who are at JPMorgan right now.
Speaker 1: Other banks not in the position that JP Morgan is
Speaker 1: in right now. Taylor Riggs, thank you very much. Indeed,
Speaker 1: it is you know, for particular for those of us
Speaker 1: at Live Watergate, John Ferrell, it's an interesting moment. We'll
Speaker 1: see how interesting by say twelve known today, Yeah, twelve
Speaker 1: new h precisely because at ninth thirty we get the
Speaker 1: news conference, and I have no idea from that point
Speaker 1: Tom when we actually see the full report on Wall Street,
Speaker 1: I also have no idea how many people actually care
Speaker 1: and who will be watching. I want to bring in
Speaker 1: Michael Shell, market Field Asset Management chairman, portfolio manager and CEO. Michael,
Speaker 1: what does all of this made to you with anything
Speaker 1: at all? Nothing? Really? Um? I mean, certainly at nine thirty,
Speaker 1: I won't be watching it. I'll be watching the market open. That's,
Speaker 1: you know, generally a much better use of time. UM.
Speaker 1: You know, it's it's going to be dominating the news waves.
Speaker 1: I don't think it's going to dominate financial media. I
Speaker 1: think you guys will will move on, you know, fairly
Speaker 1: quickly from this. But but this large document will be
Speaker 1: passed and turned into headlines and turned into commentary for months,
Speaker 1: months ago. Yeah. I don't want to prejudge the outcome
Speaker 1: of the report, but it feels like a lot of
Speaker 1: people go in this with a pretty strong confirmation bias. Michael.
Speaker 1: It doesn't seem to change the mind of many people,
Speaker 1: the more information we get, No, And I think what
Speaker 1: you'll find is is more and more people get less
Speaker 1: and less interested in this as it goes on, But
Speaker 1: there's sort of political die hards. We'll still be preaching
Speaker 1: from it into the next election. Do you think it
Speaker 1: shapes policy outcomes elsewhere? More specifically on the trade story,
Speaker 1: it was interesting that as this bubbles away in the
Speaker 1: background in Washington, we take another step potentially towards a
Speaker 1: deal with China in the United States, perhaps by May time.
Speaker 1: Do you think that gives us a little bit of
Speaker 1: a nudge on the trade side. You know, I think
Speaker 1: this report could have gone worse for the administration. You know,
Speaker 1: I think it's a president who doesn't mind fighting partisan
Speaker 1: fights as goes along. And you know, all the evidence
Speaker 1: suggests that we are heading towards some kind of a
Speaker 1: solution in trade, and I don't think this report is
Speaker 1: going to have any impact on that. Let's talk about
Speaker 1: the fundamentals and how resilient this secuity market is Eurozone
Speaker 1: p MS downside surprise and equity market that just shrugs
Speaker 1: it off. What do you think about that, Michael? This
Speaker 1: secuity market is looking somewhat bulletproof in the in the
Speaker 1: face of economic data that is weaker in China and
Speaker 1: weaker in Europe. Rather China a little bit better. Yeah, well, China,
Speaker 1: you know, is better than the European data. You know,
Speaker 1: isn't that bad? I think if I looked at it
Speaker 1: coming in the cab, it was Italy and Spain's service
Speaker 1: data was weak, that Germany's was okay, and for manufacturing
Speaker 1: still below fifty. But it's closer to fifty. I mean,
Speaker 1: you know, this isn't bad. Um, it's stuff that people
Speaker 1: know is very already. Um. You know, if you look
Speaker 1: at if you look at economic sentiment in German, it's
Speaker 1: extremely low, but the Zoo index low single digits with
Speaker 1: a DAS going up. I mean, but that's generally what
Speaker 1: I call a positive divergence. I think that markets tend
Speaker 1: to move in without direction, and economists tend to follow. Uh.
Speaker 1: There are two brilliant Bloomberg articles today on what we'll
Speaker 1: call the European banking mess. How do you take advantage
Speaker 1: of that? How do you do you know you were
Speaker 1: the Oscar groose for years with a real European band.
Speaker 1: How do you become opportunistic given these stories. Well, I'll
Speaker 1: tell you a story back from and I knew absolutely
Speaker 1: nothing and was sitting around in Oscar Goose and the
Speaker 1: story came across the tape that that Manny Hanny was
Speaker 1: was was being bought by chemicals. And one of the
Speaker 1: partners turned to me and says, that's it. The market.
Speaker 1: You know that the whole cycle just turned. I don't
Speaker 1: know what he was talking about, but I still think
Speaker 1: about it twenty eight years later. So you know, I
Speaker 1: do wonder whether if Deutsche Bank could actually get a
Speaker 1: deal done with Commers Bank and they could start cleaning
Speaker 1: up where whether that would be something of a turning
Speaker 1: sentiment for that banking industry. This is wonderful. Michael Shure,
Speaker 1: thank you so much. This is a joy Foreign Affairs.
Speaker 1: I talked about John, I'm a broken record. I'm a
Speaker 1: broken seat every month. It's great, except they've topped it
Speaker 1: all this month. George Packer, who was the definitive IRAQ writer,
Speaker 1: I would say with the New Yorker, Damn Dressner, Um
Speaker 1: Ambassador Burns, William J. Burns is in here as well.
Speaker 1: Gideon Rose. I'm searching for a strategy, and this is
Speaker 1: not a Brexit issue. We're searching for a strategy when
Speaker 1: in America aren't we exactly? And it's really it's unfortunately
Speaker 1: I like the issue too, thank you very much for
Speaker 1: your praise of it. I'm it's kind of a depressing issue.
Speaker 1: I suggested that we shrink wrap some xanax with it
Speaker 1: as well, because the entire theme of the issue basically
Speaker 1: is Trump will have ended up killing off the previous
Speaker 1: foreign policy, but his foreign policy is not particularly uh
Speaker 1: sustainable or effective, and so the real question is what
Speaker 1: happens after Trump's feign policy when US hedgemony has been
Speaker 1: essentially shaken to its core but it is still standing.
Speaker 1: What happens next? Does it deteriorate or does it get revived?
Speaker 1: Every single person listening to this would kill for their
Speaker 1: children to be William Burns. He is a public servant
Speaker 1: of the country. He went through the foreign exchange, the
Speaker 1: foreign policy treadmill, a state department and all that. What
Speaker 1: are the William Burns of the world doing with our
Speaker 1: American foreign policy right now? Uh? The William Burns is
Speaker 1: are basically like the staff of a US embassy with
Speaker 1: a political appointee, a rich campaign contributor who gets appointed
Speaker 1: to a major embassy, and the embassy staff spends the
Speaker 1: time trying to protect the u S interests in the
Speaker 1: Bilotle relationship from the sort of rich dufice and charge
Speaker 1: who's who's things up, And that's happens well when you
Speaker 1: have the political appointees come into varieties. There are some
Speaker 1: of the best American diplomats in history have been political
Speaker 1: appointees who bring an outsiders flair to things, but some
Speaker 1: of the worst are people who should never be in
Speaker 1: government and are just essentially a spoil system. And the
Speaker 1: problem is now we have the entire government run by
Speaker 1: a rich campaign donor who's an amateur, and the professionals
Speaker 1: are trying to make sure that the government doesn't collapse
Speaker 1: on his watch. And it's a struggle because the White
Speaker 1: House right now essentially trying to undermine the independence of
Speaker 1: the bureaucracy and the civil service and the public service,
Speaker 1: and everybody is tearing their hairs out in that kind
Speaker 1: of thing. Getting elections have consequences. That goes without saying.
Speaker 1: I'm trying to get my hands around the kind of
Speaker 1: foreign policy the American electorate want. I don't know what
Speaker 1: kind of uh farm. If not clear, the American public
Speaker 1: has a choice on these things, and they don't have
Speaker 1: a real educated preference because, uh, reading out their preferences
Speaker 1: from what they vote is very, very difficult. The same
Speaker 1: people who voted for Barack Obama voted for Donald Trump. Uh,
Speaker 1: and uh, there's a lot of problems in trying to
Speaker 1: figure that out. The real problem is they don't like
Speaker 1: what's being done now and even though it is successful,
Speaker 1: and so how do you make it how do you
Speaker 1: make people understand the alternatives to current policy can be
Speaker 1: even worse to the elite world In John's question is
Speaker 1: absolutely brilliant. We have two presidential candidates walk away from
Speaker 1: a multilateral America. Right this this is the great challenge
Speaker 1: which is right now. The country's foreign policy that actually
Speaker 1: is providing security guarantees for the world and stability for
Speaker 1: the global economy is benefiting the world in general, and
Speaker 1: the United States as the leader in that system. But
Speaker 1: there have been so many flaws in management of American hegemony,
Speaker 1: both domestically and internationally, whether it's the rock board, the
Speaker 1: financial crisis, are inequality that the public doesn't see the
Speaker 1: good things that American geminy is bringing, and so they
Speaker 1: just want to give it up. And then the challenges,
Speaker 1: how do you convince people that global leadership can make
Speaker 1: sense and is worth paying as a price anybody willing
Speaker 1: to get on the campaign trail and do that. No,
Speaker 1: And so you're gonna have two years of reverse Trumpism
Speaker 1: in which the Democrats compete with each other to make
Speaker 1: wild and crazy promises that can't possibly to be fulfilled.
Speaker 1: And then the next president is going to come in
Speaker 1: and essentially have to have the challenge of dealing with
Speaker 1: real problems that have not been addressed after four years
Speaker 1: of drift. And that's the big challenge that we don't
Speaker 1: know yet what's going to happen when we try to
Speaker 1: restart a real foreign policy in two years. I just
Speaker 1: always feel like we have these discussions and we sit
Speaker 1: in ivory towers about what should and shouldn't be done.
Speaker 1: But I just get the feeling of the electorate just
Speaker 1: has less appetite for intervention abroad, both in terms of
Speaker 1: soft and half power power power. It's less appetite to
Speaker 1: deliver foreign aid. It's always been it's always been the case,
Speaker 1: but that has changed quite remarkably over the last five years,
Speaker 1: and not just in the United States, but in Europe
Speaker 1: and the UK as well, Gideon. So essentially, I think
Speaker 1: what's happened is, you know, I was talking, We talked
Speaker 1: about this a lot, and in fact the next issue
Speaker 1: is sort of what went wrong, and Tim's gonna like
Speaker 1: that one as well, which is basically how we screw
Speaker 1: up usgemity so madly over the last generation. But I
Speaker 1: guess my answer would be that a lot of us
Speaker 1: took our eye off the ball and we didn't focus
Speaker 1: on things like the internal periphery and how things benefited
Speaker 1: sort of you know, the in effect what you would
Speaker 1: call Trump voters. We can contend did ourselves with progress
Speaker 1: on general statistics without necessarily understanding the political reality of
Speaker 1: that and understanding the progress wasn't being conveyed to voters,
Speaker 1: and then the voters basically rebelled understandably, Gideon, really smart,
Speaker 1: really appreciate time as always, and your insight and your
Speaker 1: personal forew Gideon Rose, Foreign Afast magazine editor and Peterson
Speaker 1: g Peterson chat. You could go into the podium elector
Speaker 1: in a department of justice with the one count them
Speaker 1: two three four flags set up. One is of course
Speaker 1: the American flag, which will be over Attorney General bars
Speaker 1: right shoulder, and then there is the acclaimed and important
Speaker 1: Department of Justice flag in blue, along with two other
Speaker 1: blue and white flags as well. And this goes back
Speaker 1: in history. Greg Villier knows it is a unique history
Speaker 1: of the Department of Justice. As we await Attorney General
Speaker 1: bar his comments on this eagerly awaited Bloomberg report, Greg
Speaker 1: Vllier tell us how through the years that you know
Speaker 1: that Democrats and Republicans have treated this Department of Justice well,
Speaker 1: usually as a pinata ton, whether it was Republicans against
Speaker 1: you know, Jana Reno going back a long time, or
Speaker 1: whether it's Uh Democrats against Sessions and others. It's a
Speaker 1: highly politicized agency. And frankly, I think William Barr has
Speaker 1: continued that trend. William Barr in all the punditry I've
Speaker 1: seen I've been told, he can say. We now see
Speaker 1: Mr Barr beginning to walk down the Marble isisles here
Speaker 1: at Justice. He's got the usual entourage with him. He's
Speaker 1: caring about five inches of documents with him. I would
Speaker 1: suggest the vlier report from Toronto is within there today
Speaker 1: as well. We will see on that Greg. Uh. The
Speaker 1: Attorney General is supposedly one who can surprise. Do you
Speaker 1: think he can surprise today either Democrats or Republicans? He could, Tom,
Speaker 1: I mean a lot is unknown. But there's a really
Speaker 1: interesting story in the Washington Post this morning from Giuliani
Speaker 1: who says that the Trump team is ready to rumble,
Speaker 1: that they're going to counter the findings in the report.
Speaker 1: So the issue then becomes, would Bar be part of
Speaker 1: that countering Paul Soon? I misspoke Attorney General bar but
Speaker 1: that was an older film. I have him walking. We
Speaker 1: don't know where he's right now. We'll see him here
Speaker 1: in a number of minutes, nine minutes away from the
Speaker 1: scheduled panel exactly. I think, you know, Greg, I think
Speaker 1: probably the first question a lot of people are just
Speaker 1: asking themselves before we get a chance to look at
Speaker 1: the report is will there be any new news? What
Speaker 1: is your thought? I think there will, think I think
Speaker 1: there'll be new revelations about how the White House handled
Speaker 1: all of this. I think that it will give Democrats
Speaker 1: an opportunity for more hearings, more subpoenas. But I think
Speaker 1: the bottom line is going to stay the same, and
Speaker 1: that is chances of impeachment fenty percent, chances of conviction
Speaker 1: in the Senate. So Greg you mentioned the Democrats here.
Speaker 1: I mean, let's assume that this report. I think the
Speaker 1: expectations are that there will be a lot of redactions
Speaker 1: of this report. If so, presumably the Democrats will fight
Speaker 1: for greater disclosure. What do you think their strategy will
Speaker 1: be in terms of getting more disclosure? How hard do
Speaker 1: you think they will push or they should push? I
Speaker 1: think very hard. They're going to listen to the base,
Speaker 1: and I think they'll go after a lot more. They
Speaker 1: run a risk, however, of overplaying their hand, just as
Speaker 1: Newt Gingrich did with Bill Clinton. I think that it
Speaker 1: backfired on the Republicans, and this you know, and an
Speaker 1: overreaction by the Democrats could backfire on them. We should
Speaker 1: say who the attorney general is, and so those particularly
Speaker 1: in our Bloomberg eleven three zero New York audience, it's
Speaker 1: of most interest. William Barr out of New York. His
Speaker 1: father was at Columbia University and then was headmaster at
Speaker 1: the Alton School on the Upper East Side in uh
Speaker 1: New York. He went on to um all sorts of
Speaker 1: good academics, including the Horseman's School and George Washington Law
Speaker 1: as well, and then he's really had Paul Sweeney an
Speaker 1: interesting Washington career. He's made a lot of stuffs. It's
Speaker 1: almost George Bush Senior like. And that Greg Valier Attorney
Speaker 1: general bar has not just been in the legal record,
Speaker 1: has he. No, he has a very distinguished career. People
Speaker 1: who know to speak very highly of him. But I
Speaker 1: have to be candid, Tom, I think that Trump has
Speaker 1: an attorney general who is more helpful to Trump than
Speaker 1: Jeff's sessions was compared to Edmeys that we remember from
Speaker 1: a number of years ago. So it's interesting, Greg, what
Speaker 1: what do you think the reaction will be from the
Speaker 1: White House as this report comes out? Over the next
Speaker 1: you know, day or two, them people really start to
Speaker 1: dig into how gressy do you think the White House
Speaker 1: will be in in terms of responding. That's a really
Speaker 1: crucial question. If Trump just hunkers down and let's the
Speaker 1: store and pass, there's going to be a few days
Speaker 1: of rocky relations with the Hill, then I think he's
Speaker 1: in good shape. But if Trump is Trump and he
Speaker 1: gets he gets furious and reacts angrily, I think that
Speaker 1: could raise issues. I think that could prolong this if
Speaker 1: he starts to attack Maller personally. I think this could
Speaker 1: drag on even longer. Craig value with us as we
Speaker 1: await a number of minutes away, seven eight minutes away,
Speaker 1: and I would suggest the Attorney General may be timely.
Speaker 1: We would see that this is not at the White House,
Speaker 1: This is not in the press room or any rooms
Speaker 1: at the White House, at the Department of Justice, with
Speaker 1: the crest uh standing behind Mr Barr with a blue curtain,
Speaker 1: very typical federal government blue curtain, the crest of Justice
Speaker 1: on elector in the American flag again to the left,
Speaker 1: and then that famous blue flag of the Department of
Speaker 1: Justice over the years to the right with two other
Speaker 1: flags as well. Gregg Valier, the Democrats come in different flavors.
Speaker 1: You mentioned the impeachment idea, but there can be much
Speaker 1: much more here, including prosecution. Will we see text, do
Speaker 1: we see footnotes? Do we see appendixes? Do we have
Speaker 1: any idea appendices? It's going to take hours for everyone
Speaker 1: to wait through what's in there, and there will I'm
Speaker 1: sure the speculation about more indictments. But Tom, if I
Speaker 1: could make a quick point about the markets, you know,
Speaker 1: we all you know, are in the business of talking
Speaker 1: about the markets for our listeners, I would say The
Speaker 1: bigger story today is the retail sales report. It shows
Speaker 1: that not only is a recession not imminent, I think
Speaker 1: that's a growing I think there's a growing chance that
Speaker 1: this economy could overheat. The economy is clearly rebounding. And
Speaker 1: I think a chance of a fat rate cut is zero,
Speaker 1: and I think people may start to talk, well, a
Speaker 1: second half rate hike. Herman Kane out with a statement today,
Speaker 1: if you will on his advantages. Does he persist in uh,
Speaker 1: moving towards some form of domination to the Fed, or
Speaker 1: does that become a distraction for the president. The President
Speaker 1: moves on to saying, hey, look, this is my economy,
Speaker 1: give me credit for it. Yeah. I mean you've got
Speaker 1: to say that. The big surprise economically is how strong
Speaker 1: the economy is now looking as we as we're now
Speaker 1: into spring. And I think for the White House that's
Speaker 1: something they can most about. For Herman Kane, I think
Speaker 1: the chances of him becoming a FED governor aren't close
Speaker 1: to zero. Again, we gotta pen right now. Paul Sweeney
Speaker 1: of the Attorney General's stage in the audience of all
Speaker 1: I'm not good at guessing crowds. You're much better. What
Speaker 1: do you think seventy eight in the room, all of
Speaker 1: their cell phones ready to go. I think so it's people,
Speaker 1: it's filling up very very quick. You've got your embargoed
Speaker 1: report over there. But yeah, they it's it's filling up
Speaker 1: very quickly, and we're you know, four or five minutes away. So, Greg,
Speaker 1: you mentioned the markets, it's just been in extraordinaries. Are anything,
Speaker 1: you know, We've had this great start to the equity
Speaker 1: markets this year, very much of a risk on field.
Speaker 1: Things are all okay out there, um, and that obviously
Speaker 1: is much different from what we experienced in December when
Speaker 1: one of the issues impacting the markets in December on
Speaker 1: the negative was, you know, all this political issue out there.
Speaker 1: Is there anything today in the Mulla report that could
Speaker 1: trip up the markets? Maybe the markets not discounting. I
Speaker 1: don't think so. I think the markets are correct to
Speaker 1: assume that this will not lead to impeachment or more accurately,
Speaker 1: to conviction. So you make a really good point. You
Speaker 1: go back to December, we were fearful of a long
Speaker 1: trade war. I think that has diminished greatly. I think
Speaker 1: we'll get a deal with China. There was a great
Speaker 1: deal of fear over the Federal Reserve, and I think
Speaker 1: even though you can rule out a rate hike in
Speaker 1: the second half, the Federal Reserve is dovish and they're
Speaker 1: going to stay dovish. So a lot of the anxieties
Speaker 1: that dominated just four or five months ago have evaporated.
Speaker 1: We'd like to give details, and of course we dive
Speaker 1: into Wikipedia in any other sort as we can find
Speaker 1: for this. Greg, I think it's important to state that
Speaker 1: the Attorney General is an avid bagpiper. I mean that
Speaker 1: that that gives us credit here for moving forward today.
Speaker 1: Have we ever interviewed a bagpipe? I don't think. I
Speaker 1: can't imagine. I don't remember bagpipes the studios. It's a
Speaker 1: reposed the most grating instrument of all times. That from
Speaker 1: Mr Vilia. It's a Republican sport. I guess that is
Speaker 1: how we would. But we await the Attorney General, and
Speaker 1: of course this important moment for Washington. We welcome all
Speaker 1: of you on our different radio platforms and particularly serious
Speaker 1: XM Channel one across this nation Bloomberg, uh Bay Area
Speaker 1: in a very early morning San Francisco, and of course
Speaker 1: on the Eastern Seaboard in Boston, New York and Washington
Speaker 1: as well. Particularly Good morning to FM in Washington, where
Speaker 1: we are certain all the Beltway riveted to this. Right
Speaker 1: now again Bloomberg Radio will give you full coverage of this,
Speaker 1: not only the comments by the Attorney General, the frenzy,
Speaker 1: the headlines around all that, but really the further analysis
Speaker 1: summing up I'm sure at four pm or six pm
Speaker 1: later tonight, Paul Sweeney with with a lot more analysis
Speaker 1: of the four hundred I mean again four hundred pages.
Speaker 1: Think of that there was a yeah, I mean it
Speaker 1: was a two year investigation and you know, a four
Speaker 1: page summary. I think a lot of people are questioning
Speaker 1: whether that's really sufficient to kind of really dig into
Speaker 1: what was in the report. Greg, I mentioned Mr McGann
Speaker 1: as my first word search, Jonathan swanted to Actually I
Speaker 1: was talking it up as well today. I do agree
Speaker 1: with that. Who is Mr McGannon. Why should I be
Speaker 1: words searching him? Well, he test to find a lot.
Speaker 1: There was a period time where the Trump lighthouse urged
Speaker 1: to everyone to go candidate to to cooperate, and I
Speaker 1: think his testimony could have come back to bite the lighthouse. Now,
Speaker 1: Greg value stay with us right now. We got to
Speaker 1: do a day to check into all of this, and
Speaker 1: it is within rising markets. Is UH our economic strategies.
Speaker 1: Gregg lu mentioned retail sales better than good and John
Speaker 1: Bless claims showing that what some would say is a
Speaker 1: fully employed America futures flat. They're now up ten doll
Speaker 1: futures up a twenty six thousand five win three and
Speaker 1: you see it in the vixen point three two points,
Speaker 1: not not below twelve to that wonderful eleven handle of
Speaker 1: a few days ago, but twelve point to eight on
Speaker 1: the vix as well. Yields have been all over the
Speaker 1: place within a narrow range. Actually off retail, we did
Speaker 1: get higher yields, lower bill note and bond prices. But
Speaker 1: right now Paul three basis points in two point nine
Speaker 1: seven percent in the thirty year upon the tenure two
Speaker 1: point five six percent. I should point out German yields
Speaker 1: are lower today. They really give back some of the
Speaker 1: lift that we've seen over the last UH number of days.
Speaker 1: Dollar stronger, Paul Sweeney, dollar ninety seven point three three
Speaker 1: on d X. Why really speaks to that American distinction.
Speaker 1: The dollar has been just been fantastic, and you think
Speaker 1: about the dollar, the question is just what the current
Speaker 1: what can it appreciate against And we haven't seen any
Speaker 1: weakness really in a dollar So, Greg, you know, one
Speaker 1: of the things that's been a big issue about this
Speaker 1: report and the and the release of the report has
Speaker 1: been this the sections that have been redacted and the
Speaker 1: reasons why they've been redacted, whether it's you know, an
Speaker 1: impending investigation or national security issues or what are the
Speaker 1: areas or groups of redactions that you think are most
Speaker 1: you know, that can be challenged the most effectively by Democrats. Well,
Speaker 1: I'd say a couple of areas. Number One, you could
Speaker 1: make a case for perjury, that there are people very
Speaker 1: close to Trump who may have perjured themselves and there
Speaker 1: may be grand jury investigation into that, you know. And
Speaker 1: I think another is just the probably the most hotly
Speaker 1: debated issue, and that was the meeting at the Trump
Speaker 1: Tower with the Russians. I think there's still uh an
Speaker 1: ongoing investigation over whether people close to Trump perjured themselves
Speaker 1: about that meeting. Well, to be clear here, not that
Speaker 1: you know, I want to get into the Niete Gritte,
Speaker 1: but I will. Um. So you're saying within the report
Speaker 1: there are people that spoke to Mr Muller and his team,
Speaker 1: and they just in the normal path of speaking, perjured
Speaker 1: themselves and that will be blacked out if there's still
Speaker 1: an ongoing investigation. Absolutely, and I think that still remains
Speaker 1: a risk for the Trump inner circle, that uh, contradictory
Speaker 1: statements may lead to some indictments. You know, it's important
Speaker 1: to note that most legal experts belief you cannot indict
Speaker 1: the sitting president. So I don't see Trump being indicted,
Speaker 1: but you could indict people around to We're thrilled to
Speaker 1: Greg value with us to give us a perspective here
Speaker 1: on our economics and of course on the political moment.
Speaker 1: I should state that we can see within our coverage
Speaker 1: within the Department of Justice press room, the seven year
Speaker 1: sold members gathered are very clearly looking at a single
Speaker 1: sheet of Paul. It's a single sheet of paper. I
Speaker 1: don't believe it was redacted, but you know, the some
Speaker 1: form of single page press release, two sided, I should say,
Speaker 1: reactions of color coded. Actually, yeah, this will be something,
Speaker 1: and you know very quickly, Greg Villier, as we await,
Speaker 1: I think we just got a one minute warning from
Speaker 1: his staff. Two minute warning. Thank you Colin on that,
Speaker 1: Greg Villier, this is not nineteen seventy four. I mean,
Speaker 1: it's it's not what we saw the attorney general of
Speaker 1: another time and place. Well, that's correct, but I would
Speaker 1: say that Trump still faces other issues. One is from
Speaker 1: the Southern District of New York in terms of payments
Speaker 1: to a porn star in terms of the Trump Foundation,
Speaker 1: so he's not out of the woods yat. But impeachment
Speaker 1: and conviction I still think very very unlikely. Greg Villiers,
Speaker 1: thank you so much, greatly, greatly appreciate this morning with
Speaker 1: a g F Investments Toronto thrilled director join us this morning.
Speaker 1: H Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe
Speaker 1: and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever
Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keene
Speaker 1: before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. I'm
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio